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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast podcasts.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by the FANDUL

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Speaker 3: Sports Book. Brendon glass Sheen joined today by Sean Zarrillo

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Speaker 3: and Billy Ward.

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Speaker 4: You know what that means. UFC betting preview.

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Speaker 3: We're breaking down UFC two to eighty nine goes down

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Speaker 3: this weekend from the Rogers Arena in Vancouver, Canada. Five

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Speaker 3: main fights, we've got six prelims, and we'll be doing.

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Speaker 4: Quite a bit on the pod today.

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Speaker 3: We're gonna look through underdogs, look at the prop market.

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Speaker 3: Sean and Billy have identified a fight of the night

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Speaker 3: that they want to break down more extensively, and we

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Speaker 3: will get to final bets before we wrap it up.

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Speaker 4: Same deal as usual, but first, as always, we start

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Speaker 4: with the main event.

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Speaker 3: We have Amanda Nunez at minus three point fifty on

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Speaker 3: the money line over at FanDuel. Al Donna's price has

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Speaker 3: risen to plus two sixty. Looking at the FanDuel Sportsbook,

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Speaker 3: we've got Billy Ward's luck ratings as well for UFC

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Speaker 3: two eighty nine. We'll dive into those throughout the podcast

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Speaker 3: and see where those fit. So I look forward to that,

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Speaker 3: and of course follow the guys on the app if

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Speaker 3: they add anything after the pod today or before the

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Speaker 3: fights get underway on Saturday. Okay, Zilla, of course you've

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Speaker 3: got a significant favorite here, so if you're a listener,

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Speaker 3: you're trying to find a way to not have delay

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Speaker 3: a lot of juice. If you like the favorite, what's

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Speaker 3: the way you'd like to bet this and how do

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Speaker 3: you break it down?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm getting back. I renail Dona here at around

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Speaker 5: plus two to fifty. I made the line closer to

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Speaker 5: plus two twenty five, roughly thirty percent for her in

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Speaker 5: terms of her win probability here, so getting her closer

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Speaker 5: to twenty seven percent twenty eight percent. I think you

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Speaker 5: take a small stab pre fight, but I'm all going

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Speaker 5: to look to add more potentially live after rounds two

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Speaker 5: and round three if she's still hanging around and still

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Speaker 5: in the fight. Amanda Nunez for her career just seven

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Speaker 5: and four after the first round, never finished an opponent

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Speaker 5: past the eight minute mark, never finished a UFC opponent

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Speaker 5: after round one, So if you survive round one with her,

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Speaker 5: you can get back into the fight. Jure Leona Painted

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Speaker 5: to that other opponents have been able to stay moderately

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Speaker 5: competitive with her in the past, boalanteer to Chevchenko winning

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Speaker 5: down the stretch. But Amanda's biggest discrepancy is her cardio

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Speaker 5: and getting her in twenty five minute fights. I think

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Speaker 5: she is slightly vulnerable. She has multiple ways to win

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Speaker 5: this fight, potentially in a domined fashion. Obviously that round

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Speaker 5: one finish with their big power advantage, big physicality edge

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Speaker 5: that she has over the most of the fighters that

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Speaker 5: she goes up against. But also I think she can

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Speaker 5: land takedown is fairly consistently here and maybe rack up

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Speaker 5: a lot of top time over the course of twenty

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Speaker 5: five minutes. So even if it does extend beyond that

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Speaker 5: first round, I think Nunez can win it with consistent wrestling,

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Speaker 5: getting on top of her opponent and holding her there.

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Speaker 5: But but if I Radi al Donna is able to

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Speaker 5: get up from those takedowns, she forces Amanda to work

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Speaker 5: to get those takedowns. If she survives that first round,

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Speaker 5: just like Juliana Painted did in the first fight, Amanda

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Speaker 5: is gonna eventually wear down, and I think I Rainy

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Speaker 5: al Donna is the better technical striker so if Amanda

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Speaker 5: starts to tire, that power starts to dissipate, she can't

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Speaker 5: get the takedowns, and then they're standing at striking range.

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Speaker 5: I think Aldonna may be able to have some success

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Speaker 5: here down the stretch, winning minutes, being the superior technical

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Speaker 5: boxer and not just winging power shots, which Amanda tends

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Speaker 5: to do and just has the advantage over most of

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Speaker 5: her opponents. Juliana painted last fight very sloppy. Amanda picked

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Speaker 5: her apart, but I think al Donna could be much

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Speaker 5: more measured in her approach in terms of how she

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Speaker 5: approaches the striking.

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Speaker 6: So I'll take a.

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Speaker 5: Small stab pre fight in al Donna, but I'm really

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Speaker 5: looking to add more live. As I said after rounds two,

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Speaker 5: round three, Nunez seven and four in her career after

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Speaker 5: round one one finish up to the eight minute mark

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Speaker 5: and no others be on round one and.

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Speaker 4: Nunez is won thirteen of her last fourteen.

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Speaker 3: Heading into the weekend, and then al Donna victorious in

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Speaker 3: her last two by nacout and TKO respectively. Billy, looking

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Speaker 3: at your luck ratings, you think this fight is fairly valued,

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Speaker 3: at least the price that you can get at FanDuel

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Speaker 3: right now or when you shop around, of course, but

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Speaker 3: we're looking at fandel for our purposes here.

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Speaker 7: What do you think? What do you want to do? Yeah,

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Speaker 7: this is a tough one. I'm gonna pass on at

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Speaker 7: pre fight, and I think it's fairly valued, kind of

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Speaker 7: on average. But if we know which Amanda Nunas we're

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Speaker 7: gonna get here, this one should either be about minus

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Speaker 7: five hundred or close to a pick them, right, So

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Speaker 7: if we get the Amanda Nunas who came in kind

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Speaker 7: of unmotivated, not in great shape, not training that hard

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Speaker 7: for the first Julian and Panna fight, this should probably

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Speaker 7: be a pick them. I think Aldana is everywhere every

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Speaker 7: bit as good as Julian and Pagna is. But as

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Speaker 7: we saw on the second Pania versus Nunaz fight, that's

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Speaker 7: still nowhere near as good as a prime motivated Amanda Nunas.

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Speaker 7: But there's so many questions, right, I think she has

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Speaker 7: a second child on the way. She switch training camp,

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Speaker 7: she's kind of training herself instead of with a big team.

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Speaker 7: Does she really want it that bad or is she

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Speaker 7: just kind of coasting hoping she can pick up some

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Speaker 7: late career victories and cash some checks here. That's the

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Speaker 7: question we don't have the answer to, which is why

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Speaker 7: I'm passing on this one pre fight. Also, I think

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Speaker 7: that's a really good reason to be looking to attack

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Speaker 7: this live because we might know pretty quickly which Amanda

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Speaker 7: Nunas is in there, and if she looks like you know,

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Speaker 7: she's hoping for a big first round knockout without really

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Speaker 7: a plan B like she was against Julian and Paenna,

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Speaker 7: then Shan's angle is perfect there. And I don't know

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Speaker 7: if we even need to wait till after round two

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Speaker 7: because if noona as empty as the tank in round

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Speaker 7: one kind of looks sloppy, doesn't look that great cardio wise,

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Speaker 7: that's a perfect time. So yeah, I'm passing pre fight

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Speaker 7: just because I don't know what we're gonna see here.

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Speaker 7: I do think live angles are the way to play

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Speaker 7: this one though, all right.

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Speaker 3: Normally when we do these UFC betting previews, gents, you

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Speaker 3: both usually identify if you'd like the underdogs or if

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Speaker 3: it's a good underdog card, is it a good dog card,

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Speaker 3: and zerrilla do you have one that jumps up to you?

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Speaker 5: Well, I'm taking Irene al Dada in the main event

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Speaker 5: at a big dog price. You get to look to

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Speaker 5: another woman's fight with Jasmine Jazzudivicious at plus two to fifty,

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Speaker 5: So taking two dogs already closer to plus two fifty

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Speaker 5: plus two sixty five Jasmine three inches taller, forge treach

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Speaker 5: advantage here or vice versa, but physical advantages over Miranda Maverick.

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Speaker 5: I think she can land takedowns and Mirandom Maverick gets

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Speaker 5: stuck on her back for extended stretches. Maverick also is

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Speaker 5: due for a split decision loss or a tough loss

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Speaker 5: on the scorecards. You know, a fighter attempts to fight

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Speaker 5: to the level over competition. I think she is the

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Speaker 5: striking advantage here, but the reach advantage for Jesuitavisious can

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Speaker 5: overcome some of that technique, and I think the wrestling

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Speaker 5: is pretty comparable. But I think Jesuitavisious is less likely

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Speaker 5: to get put on bottom than Maverick is, so given

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Speaker 5: the fact that she's bigger, I think it'll be competitive,

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Speaker 5: maybe slightly behind in the striking, but it should be

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Speaker 5: close and competitive. And this fight is highly favored to

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Speaker 5: go to a decision. We talk about that all the time.

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Speaker 5: Taking a big underdog in a fight that is likely

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Speaker 5: to go to decision.

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Speaker 6: Not to mention the.

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Speaker 5: Fact that we're getting a Canadian fighter here in Canada.

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Speaker 5: Jazmine just from over the border, Niagara Falls type area

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Speaker 5: on the Canadian side. But we'll be getting the majority

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Speaker 5: of the crowd support if the striking is close, We'll

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Speaker 5: be getting the cheers when she lands takedown.

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Speaker 6: So going with the hometown.

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Speaker 5: Fighter here in a fight I expect to be close

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Speaker 5: competitive that is highly lined to go to a decision.

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Speaker 5: It's just an easy play. Not to mention the physical

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Speaker 5: advantages on top of it. So Jasmine Decuit of issues

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Speaker 5: Downary about plus two fifty I think is a very

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Speaker 5: sharp underdog bet for Saturday.

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Speaker 3: Billy favorite underdog for UFC two eighty nine in Vancouver.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, this one was hard to choose this. Actually, I'm

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Speaker 7: kind of with Sean. There's a lot of underdogs I

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Speaker 7: like here. I'm not taking as big of a swing

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Speaker 7: as he is on these plus two to fifty or

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Speaker 7: so lines. I do like Eric Anders your boy at

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Speaker 7: a plus one fifteen or so. This has moved around

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Speaker 7: throughout the week. He's another one I talked about my

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Speaker 7: luck rankings, but he just has a couple of advantages here.

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Speaker 7: I think the technical striking against Marc Andre Burrialt probably

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Speaker 7: favores Burrialt, but Anders has so much more power, right,

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Speaker 7: He's got basically double the knockdown rate inside the UFC,

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Speaker 7: way more stoppage abilities, and Anders has the takedown advantage here.

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Speaker 7: So it's one of those fights where Burial needs to

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Speaker 7: be winning the minutes on the feet and if Anders

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Speaker 7: is losing, he has the option to take this to

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Speaker 7: the mat where Burrial doesn't. Andres also a much better athlete.

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Speaker 7: You know, played for the University of Alabama, played football

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Speaker 7: there when they won a national championship. I worry a

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Speaker 7: little bit about his cardio. So if Anders dominates early

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Speaker 7: and we get a big juicy price on Burrialt after

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Speaker 7: round one or after round two, might hedge off a

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Speaker 7: little bit there. But it's just kind of one of those,

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Speaker 7: you know, two out of the three phases type plays

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Speaker 7: where I think having the power advantage on the feet

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Speaker 7: and the ability to be the one to take it

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Speaker 7: to the mat if you need to is enough that

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Speaker 7: it's slight plus money, I'll take it.

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Speaker 4: Okay, let's dive into the fight of the night.

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Speaker 3: I'm interested here because I think think there's some differing

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Speaker 3: opinions on this one. Dari USh the favorite, Charles Olivera

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Speaker 3: plus one twenty Zurilla, We'll go to you first. Here,

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Speaker 3: Olivera plus one twenty four now at FanDuel recording here

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Speaker 3: on a Friday morning.

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Speaker 5: This is the most intriguing UFC fight in months. There's

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Speaker 5: been a lot of lackluster cards, a lot of milk

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Speaker 5: toast main events. This is the most exciting UFC fight

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Speaker 5: there's been in months, and I'm legitimately looking forward to

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Speaker 5: this one.

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Speaker 3: In the words of Billy Ward, this is a fight

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Speaker 3: you might want to bet and also watch.

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Speaker 6: I mean this is I don't need to bet on

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Speaker 6: this fight. You enjoy it. I have a bet on

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Speaker 6: this fight, but I don't need to bet on this fight.

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Speaker 7: All right.

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Speaker 5: Give it to me, both guys. Very fragile fight, highly

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Speaker 5: likely to end inside the distance. I believe it's minus

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Speaker 5: three hundred ish, would not bet that. Maybe an under

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Speaker 5: one and a half if you want to get aggressive

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Speaker 5: at plus money, because I think somebody does get here.

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Speaker 5: But in terms of a bet, in terms of finding

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Speaker 5: betting value, Charles the Bronx inside the distance at plus

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Speaker 5: two hundred. He's finished ninety one percent of his career

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Speaker 5: fights thirty of his thirty three wins. He has two

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Speaker 5: decision wins in the UFC. He beat Jeremy Stevens in

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Speaker 5: twenty fourteen in the Tough Finale on the Tough Finale card.

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Speaker 5: He also beat Tony Ferguson a couple of years ago.

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Speaker 5: He snapped Tony's leg, Tony refused the tap and then

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Speaker 5: we saw on Tony's next fight he couldn't really move

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Speaker 5: Rabo so one.

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Speaker 6: Decision loss in his career. Two for Charles.

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Speaker 5: It was in twenty thirteen versus Frank Jeger All gas,

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Speaker 5: no branks. We're going to talk about another fight on

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Speaker 5: this card too with the fighter who's all gas, no breaks,

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Speaker 5: but Charles Olivera, I mean, just comes forward extremely aggressive

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Speaker 5: and he's looking to finish the fight as quickly as

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Speaker 5: he can cause chaos. I think Benil is a much

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Speaker 5: more measured fighter, unlike a Justin Gaechee who is going

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Speaker 5: to swing with Charles. I think Benil is going to

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Speaker 5: be much more careful about how he approaches the fight.

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Speaker 5: I think he is the wrestling advantage, and I think

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Speaker 5: Charles is willing to accept takedowns too, because he's fine

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Speaker 5: playing jiu jitsu off of his back, but against the

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Speaker 5: fighter like Banil, Dariush is a very dangerous Brazilian jiu

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Speaker 5: jitsu practitioner, very good defensively in terms of his jiu jitsu.

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Speaker 5: That may be a recipe for disaster because I think

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Speaker 5: dary Jush can get on top of him, do some damage,

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Speaker 5: hold him there. Like we saw with Isla on Makachev.

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Speaker 5: You know, Makachev was able to put Charles on his back,

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Speaker 5: control him there, stay safe. I think Daryush's grappling is

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Speaker 5: good enough to do that. But if I'm betting a

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Speaker 5: side in this fight and looking for value at a number,

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Speaker 5: Charles inside the distance I think is the bet just

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Speaker 5: because relative to his finishing ability where I have at

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Speaker 5: priced I priced it closer to plus one sixty. I

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Speaker 5: just think there's value in the number. If I was

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Speaker 5: going the other side, I might lean Dariush by decision,

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Speaker 5: or Dariush over just because you know, seeing me in

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Speaker 5: parlay with you, over just because I view him is

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Speaker 5: the better minute winner.

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Speaker 6: Probably in this fight. Charles like more aggressive, crazy.

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Speaker 5: Pace, But Benil, I think with the wrestling and the

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Speaker 5: top time, that's how it gets to a decision and

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Speaker 5: that would be his wins. So yeah, you know Darriu's decision.

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Speaker 5: Charles inside the distance. I think that's where the value

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Speaker 5: is on this fight. I don't disagree with Billy's take.

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Speaker 5: He's gonna give it to you in a second. I

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Speaker 5: think this is a really fun fight. I think you

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Speaker 5: can go either direction just on trying to find a

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Speaker 5: value on it. I think Charles to finish is generally

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Speaker 5: an underrated prop in the markets, and I think it

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Speaker 5: is here again.

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Speaker 3: Dana White said earlier in the week that he's not

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Speaker 3: committed to giving the winner of this fight the next

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Speaker 3: UFC lightweight title shot.

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Speaker 4: He said, we'll see what happens.

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Speaker 3: So, Billy, Billy, I think you're going back and forth

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Speaker 3: on this one because the value you think OLIVERA might

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Speaker 3: be slightly undervalued, but the line is going back too

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Speaker 3: far the other direction, where Darry Huge might be your play.

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Speaker 4: What are you thinking?

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Speaker 7: It was a tough one, and I actually one hundred

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Speaker 7: percent agree with Sean. I don't see why OLIVERA is

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Speaker 7: inside the distance odds and his money line odds are

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Speaker 7: not the exact same number or like five sets off,

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Speaker 7: like he's not gonna win a decision in almost any fight,

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Speaker 7: but especially in this one. So dari Usch actually, Sean

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Speaker 7: made all the points I wanted to make, while somehow

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Speaker 7: coming at a different conclusion. But day Usch is stylistically

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Speaker 7: very reminiscent of his Makachev, and we saw how that

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Speaker 7: fight played out with Olivera, you know, much better wrestler.

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Speaker 7: I would argue that dari Usch probably has better striking

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Speaker 7: than Makachev but worse wrestling, but it's, you know, reasonably

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Speaker 7: close in either direction. And the problem with Olivera's style

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Speaker 7: is he does a lot of playing post somebody. He

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Speaker 7: fights these tough strikers. Olivera knows he can't get the takedown,

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Speaker 7: so he waits for you to hit him, and then

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Speaker 7: he falls to his back like you hurt him, but

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Speaker 7: he's not really hurt. He's waiting for you to jump

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Speaker 7: in and get a submission. And that works great against

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Speaker 7: Luce Cannon's like Michael Chandler, Justin Gagechee, Dustin Poyer. I

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Speaker 7: don't think that's going to work as well against dari

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Speaker 7: Jush one because dari Jush, as Sean pointed out, much

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Speaker 7: more measured style two, and I didn't really know this

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Speaker 7: until I was researching the week. Dariy Usch was a

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Speaker 7: world champion in Brazilian jiu jitsu at blue belt, at

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Speaker 7: purple belt, at brown belt. By the time he was

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Speaker 7: a black belt, he was competing in the UFC, so

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Speaker 7: he stopped doing that. But that's not to say he's

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Speaker 7: not as high level or he is his high level

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Speaker 7: of a jiu jitsu guys Oliver Era. But he's got

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Speaker 7: really good submission skills too, and he doesn't need to

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Speaker 7: tap Olivera. He just needs to not get tapped himself.

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Speaker 7: So if he hurts Charles on the feet, Charles tries

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Speaker 7: to play possum, looks great for dari Usch on the

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00:14:26,640 --> 00:14:28,360
Speaker 7: judges if he lets him back up and you know,

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Speaker 7: it looks like he's knocking him down. Or he can

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Speaker 7: just win minutes on the ground and staying safe inside

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Speaker 7: of his guard in a way that some of these

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Speaker 7: other fighters weren't able to. I'm torn because I think

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Speaker 7: it's likelier that Olivera goes for some desperate submissions that

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Speaker 7: ends up getting himself finished on the ground if we're

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Speaker 7: down there for a long time. Don't hate the value

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Speaker 7: on dary Usch. By decision as well, though, because if

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Speaker 7: I'm Darry USh, I'm not really trying that hard to

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Speaker 7: finish him. I'm trying to put him on his back,

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Speaker 7: hold him there, beat him up. If a finish happens, great,

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Speaker 7: So just because I'm so split on those methods, I'm

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Speaker 7: fine with the money line slid a little bit away

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Speaker 7: from what I liked it at earlier in the week.

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Speaker 7: You can still get like minus one forty minus one

321
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Speaker 7: forty five if you shop around. I'd take it to

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Speaker 7: probably about minus one sixty before I start to think about,

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Speaker 7: you know, the overs and the other stuff that Sean

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Speaker 7: pointed out.

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Speaker 3: Okay, let's move on to the prop market. Favorite prop

350
00:16:43,080 --> 00:16:45,160
Speaker 3: on the board for the weekend Seanzillo.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, Billy and I.

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Speaker 5: Can wrap talking about the same two fights here, so

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Speaker 5: I don't want to take too much thunder away from

354
00:16:52,680 --> 00:16:56,880
Speaker 5: my best bet. But Danny Gay inside the distance at

355
00:16:57,000 --> 00:17:00,920
Speaker 5: plus one thirty, Billy's gonna give out another similar prop

356
00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:05,280
Speaker 5: on EGA I actually would consider betting Ega round one

357
00:17:05,680 --> 00:17:07,679
Speaker 5: as well. I think there's probably some value in that.

358
00:17:07,720 --> 00:17:10,120
Speaker 5: We'll talk about that fight more in a minute. I'm

359
00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:14,239
Speaker 5: gonna do Chris Curtis and naser Imovov also to go

360
00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:16,359
Speaker 5: to a decision of plus one or minus one twenty

361
00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:20,960
Speaker 5: eight like that up closer to minus one forty. Curtis

362
00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:24,520
Speaker 5: has knocked out several middle weights, but he is a

363
00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:29,679
Speaker 5: natural wealthwright and Imavov doesn't have the best cardio, so

364
00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:32,480
Speaker 5: I could see him getting finished late. Because Curtis tends

365
00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:35,439
Speaker 5: to build into his fights. The longer his fights go,

366
00:17:35,880 --> 00:17:38,439
Speaker 5: the more success. He seems to have Ripping the body

367
00:17:38,760 --> 00:17:41,200
Speaker 5: big part of his strategy, so he can wear down opponents.

368
00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:44,960
Speaker 5: But Imavov will play the outside game and we'll try

369
00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:48,120
Speaker 5: to win minutes, similar to how Jacker manson one minutes

370
00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:51,200
Speaker 5: against Chris Curtis. So I think the pace of this fight,

371
00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:54,520
Speaker 5: the distance of this fight, I don't see Amavov giving

372
00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:58,119
Speaker 5: Curtis a lot of pocket exchanges that are going to

373
00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:02,600
Speaker 5: necessarily force big finish. I think it's likely we get

374
00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:07,640
Speaker 5: a very technical, outside range kickboxing boxing match here where

375
00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:09,399
Speaker 5: both guys play chess, and I don't think it'll be

376
00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:12,280
Speaker 5: super high volumes, so Curtis Imovov to go to a

377
00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:14,679
Speaker 5: decision minus one twenty eight. Set to like it up

378
00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:17,960
Speaker 5: closer to minus one forty. Hopefully Chris Curtis finally goes

379
00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:20,360
Speaker 5: to a decision. He went two decisions a ton when

380
00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:22,159
Speaker 5: he was a walter weight. Now that he's up at middleweight,

381
00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:24,399
Speaker 5: he keeps knocking people out, but fight to go to

382
00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:24,840
Speaker 5: a decision.

383
00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:27,520
Speaker 4: There, Billy, where we looking prop market this week?

384
00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:31,359
Speaker 7: Yeah, really really excited to watch both the fights that

385
00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:34,480
Speaker 7: Sean mentioned, but he mentioned Danny Gay inside the distance

386
00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:37,040
Speaker 7: at plus one thirty. I'm officially going with Danny Gay

387
00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:39,800
Speaker 7: by knockout at plus one seventy. It honestly just depends

388
00:18:39,840 --> 00:18:42,440
Speaker 7: on what book you're looking at the discrepancy between those

389
00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:45,200
Speaker 7: two lines. The knockout is by far the more likely

390
00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:47,359
Speaker 7: way he finishes night Land where just because that's what

391
00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:50,440
Speaker 7: Danny Gay does. Danny Guy is one of the better

392
00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:54,240
Speaker 7: technical strikers at one forty five solid power, and he

393
00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:56,639
Speaker 7: does a really good job of fighting as the shorter

394
00:18:57,119 --> 00:19:00,000
Speaker 7: you know, with less reach fighter. Right he cuts off

395
00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:02,080
Speaker 7: off the cage really well. He switches in and out

396
00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:04,239
Speaker 7: of left and right handed stances when his opponents are

397
00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:06,479
Speaker 7: trying to get away, and he can generate a ton

398
00:19:06,520 --> 00:19:08,240
Speaker 7: of power in a super short distance. You know, just

399
00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:11,719
Speaker 7: great dirty boxing, great cage work, all of which is

400
00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:14,720
Speaker 7: a huge problem for a tall skinny where's moobile like

401
00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:17,640
Speaker 7: Nate land where Nate Land where it takes over five

402
00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:19,560
Speaker 7: and a half significant strikes per minute in the UFC,

403
00:19:19,880 --> 00:19:21,919
Speaker 7: which is terrible, Like if you look, it's you know,

404
00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:24,640
Speaker 7: the average is somewhere in the threes. And he's kind

405
00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:26,520
Speaker 7: of got by and having a pretty tough chin in

406
00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:29,240
Speaker 7: some solid cardio so far. But everyone has a good

407
00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:32,080
Speaker 7: chant until they don't. And Landwere hasn't fought anyone with

408
00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:34,600
Speaker 7: nearly the technical striking of Danny Gay. He's fought some

409
00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:36,960
Speaker 7: guys who kind of swing wildly at him. You guys

410
00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:39,560
Speaker 7: going to march after him, just continue to pop a

411
00:19:39,600 --> 00:19:41,760
Speaker 7: in with short, tight shots until he finds the one

412
00:19:41,960 --> 00:19:44,920
Speaker 7: gets home. Little worried about the knockout prop, just because

413
00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:46,960
Speaker 7: when you're fighting a guy who refuses to quit, like

414
00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:49,239
Speaker 7: Nate Landware, sometimes the easiest thing to do is just

415
00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:51,720
Speaker 7: snatch up his knack instead of continuing to try to

416
00:19:51,760 --> 00:19:54,879
Speaker 7: hit him and wear yourself out. So don't be grudge

417
00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:56,159
Speaker 7: on anyone, you know, if you want to take the

418
00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:59,480
Speaker 7: inside the distance. Looking at the FanDuel lines, the difference

419
00:19:59,520 --> 00:20:01,680
Speaker 7: between them was enough that I wanted to knockout prop.

420
00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:03,879
Speaker 7: But depending on what book you're at, what price you get,

421
00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:05,760
Speaker 7: they've bounced all over the place over the last couple

422
00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:08,560
Speaker 7: of days. No problem with either one of those. And

423
00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:10,040
Speaker 7: then if you want to hedge that you know Sean

424
00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:13,040
Speaker 7: mentioned Ega round one, if you just puts a beating

425
00:20:13,080 --> 00:20:14,600
Speaker 7: on him for a round, round and a half, two

426
00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:16,880
Speaker 7: rounds and landwhere is still there? Go ahead and fire

427
00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:19,760
Speaker 7: off Land where live? Right, it's a good hedge. He

428
00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:23,440
Speaker 7: has insane Cardio refuses to quit, so for whatever reason

429
00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:25,160
Speaker 7: you can't get him out of there. I do think

430
00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:27,639
Speaker 7: Land where late, Land where you know over one and

431
00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:29,560
Speaker 7: a half. Those kind of plays are solid hedge on.

432
00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:32,960
Speaker 3: This, okay, And before we go we get to our

433
00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:35,200
Speaker 3: final bets. It's like what we do with payoff pitch

434
00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:37,600
Speaker 3: with baseball zerrilla, right, we believe in all of these.

435
00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:41,440
Speaker 3: We want these all to go successfully. Last one before

436
00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:41,919
Speaker 3: we get out of here.

437
00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:42,440
Speaker 4: What do you got?

438
00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:43,040
Speaker 7: Yeah?

439
00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:44,879
Speaker 5: I did bump the snaking up on this one slightly,

440
00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:47,200
Speaker 5: so a true best bet. Going back to the same

441
00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:49,280
Speaker 5: fight Danny gave versus Nate Land where fight to end

442
00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:52,640
Speaker 5: inside the distance at minus one thirty five. I thought

443
00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:55,399
Speaker 5: this would be minus two hundred. The pace here should

444
00:20:55,440 --> 00:21:00,000
Speaker 5: be fucking insane, like insane. It's a three round five

445
00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:03,639
Speaker 5: both guys of excellent cardio. I'd say both Guy or

446
00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:07,400
Speaker 5: Danny Gay in particular, is has above average zerability, if

447
00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:08,639
Speaker 5: not exceptional durability.

448
00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:10,480
Speaker 6: But the pace that.

449
00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:12,679
Speaker 5: Nate Landweer is gonna fight at here is enough to

450
00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:17,760
Speaker 5: break down any person. If Nate drowns him and submits

451
00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:20,639
Speaker 5: him in round two or round three, won't be shocked

452
00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:24,359
Speaker 5: at all. Ega never finished inside the distance. Land where

453
00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:28,600
Speaker 5: Billy said he has good durability or a good chin,

454
00:21:28,760 --> 00:21:30,600
Speaker 5: I would actually say he is a bad chin. He

455
00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:34,160
Speaker 5: has incredible recoverability because he gets knocked down in almost

456
00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:37,679
Speaker 5: every fight, but he seems to just pop back up

457
00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:40,359
Speaker 5: to life like they gave him bath salts almost immediately.

458
00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:45,680
Speaker 5: But against Danny Gay, who hits very hard. I had

459
00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:47,960
Speaker 5: a bet on Danny Gay versus Gavin Tucker to go

460
00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:51,800
Speaker 5: to a decision. Danny Gay knocked him out in twenty

461
00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:55,119
Speaker 5: two seconds. Danny and knocked him out stiff in twenty

462
00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:59,399
Speaker 5: two seconds. Danny Gay hits very hard, and his nickname

463
00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:02,520
Speaker 5: is fifty K. He goes for the bonus checks. But

464
00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:07,560
Speaker 5: I don't think Nate land Where is going to necessarily

465
00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:11,240
Speaker 5: recover if Danny Gay hits him clean. If you haven't

466
00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:13,720
Speaker 5: seen Nate land Where versus David o'ama, go back and

467
00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:15,680
Speaker 5: watch that, because that's one of the craziest fights of

468
00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:18,760
Speaker 5: last year. But land Where was knocked down multiple times

469
00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:20,480
Speaker 5: in that fight and was kind of out on his

470
00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:23,520
Speaker 5: feet and was able to recover. If Danny Gay hits

471
00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:25,119
Speaker 5: him clean like that, I think he's.

472
00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:25,719
Speaker 6: Going to sleep.

473
00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:29,360
Speaker 5: So agree with Billy Danny Gay by knockout. But I'm

474
00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:32,320
Speaker 5: also I prefer Danny Gay inside the distance at plus

475
00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:35,560
Speaker 5: one thirty a shorter price, just because five knockouts five

476
00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:38,240
Speaker 5: submissions in his career, he does know how to snatch

477
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:41,560
Speaker 5: up the submissions and against the stunned fighter who may

478
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:44,520
Speaker 5: be trying to cover, like Nate land Where, maybe instead

479
00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:46,240
Speaker 5: of trying to finish him with ground and pound, you

480
00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:48,679
Speaker 5: go in and lock in that rear naked choke to

481
00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:52,440
Speaker 5: put him away. So Egay Landwear fighting inside the distance

482
00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:55,960
Speaker 5: the pace should be utterly insane. Here this might be

483
00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 5: a bet where you're screaming at your TV for somebody

484
00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:01,200
Speaker 5: to finish for fifteen minutes and nobody does, just because

485
00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:04,880
Speaker 5: they're both so durable and very tough guys. But yeah,

486
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,480
Speaker 5: I think you just kind of have to bet this

487
00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:10,520
Speaker 5: fight at this price to end by finish. It's it's

488
00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:13,399
Speaker 5: going to be as likely of a pace to finish

489
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:14,680
Speaker 5: a fight as anything you'll see.

490
00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:15,199
Speaker 7: It's going to be.

491
00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:18,800
Speaker 3: Nuts and looking to the prelimbs card a name we've

492
00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 3: brought up already, Chris Curtis, Billy.

493
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:22,320
Speaker 4: You're backing Curtis for your best bet.

494
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:24,440
Speaker 7: But before we get to that one, I would talk

495
00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:26,320
Speaker 7: about Ey Gay Landware all day if you guys let me.

496
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:28,680
Speaker 7: But no, Sean made a really good point. It's not

497
00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:31,199
Speaker 7: his chin that's so good. It is his ability to

498
00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:34,480
Speaker 7: get knocked down somehow just brush it off and keep going.

499
00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:38,400
Speaker 7: But you know he's thirty five. He did take five

500
00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:41,920
Speaker 7: or so knockdowns in his last fight. Maybe he recovered

501
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:44,200
Speaker 7: from some of those, but the next time around he doesn't.

502
00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:46,879
Speaker 7: So yeah, just super excited for that fight. Love Sean's

503
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:49,480
Speaker 7: angle too. There's really no bad way to bet this

504
00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:52,720
Speaker 7: one other than betting on variations of it. Being a

505
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:56,120
Speaker 7: boring fight, but which would be the worst.

506
00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:57,959
Speaker 6: Sweat you could possibly imagine.

507
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:02,360
Speaker 7: Yeah, you just like don't root against fun because you'll

508
00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:06,760
Speaker 7: also lose money doing it. Especially in this fight. My

509
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:09,880
Speaker 7: best bet going with Chris Curtis's money line. So I'm

510
00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:11,159
Speaker 7: hit on a lot of the points that I was

511
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:14,359
Speaker 7: going to cover on this one. Curtis throws more volume,

512
00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:16,280
Speaker 7: which is great if it does go to a decision,

513
00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:18,720
Speaker 7: because sometimes even if you don't deserve it, you kind

514
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:21,080
Speaker 7: of just get the optics of being the guy who

515
00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:24,399
Speaker 7: threw more. It's another luck ratings play. You know. His

516
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 7: two losses are to Jack Herman's Hermanson, who kind of

517
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:29,440
Speaker 7: just ran away from him, and then his last fight

518
00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:32,720
Speaker 7: was against Calvin Gastillum. Curtis really should have won that fight.

519
00:24:33,040 --> 00:24:34,960
Speaker 7: He was kind of wobbled with a head button around.

520
00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:38,480
Speaker 7: He otherwise won that. The judges then gave to Kelvin Gastilum,

521
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:41,280
Speaker 7: so you know, really should be five and one in

522
00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:44,520
Speaker 7: the UFC. The Hermanson fight was pretty rough. Sean talked

523
00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:47,160
Speaker 7: about Imovov playing around on the outside. Imovov is five

524
00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:50,399
Speaker 7: inches taller half an inch shorter reach. Curtis actually has

525
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:52,920
Speaker 7: the reach advantage here, which that's one of those trends

526
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:55,280
Speaker 7: that I really like to play, just because Curtis should

527
00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:58,240
Speaker 7: be stronger, have more power, but also not be sacrificing

528
00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:02,760
Speaker 7: any reach. Emovov can't do that dance around on the

529
00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:06,760
Speaker 7: outside as effectively as Hermanson did. Think Shan's angels sharp too,

530
00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:10,920
Speaker 7: Probably decision the most likely here. If Chris Curtis is smart,

531
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 7: he's not you know, running in guns blazing and trying

532
00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:15,399
Speaker 7: to put him away. He's just doing his thing, landing

533
00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:18,640
Speaker 7: his body shots, racking up volume. If a finish happens, great,

534
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:20,720
Speaker 7: but he shouldn't be really hunting for it. But to

535
00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:22,800
Speaker 7: get Chris Curtis at plus money, I think he's just

536
00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:26,240
Speaker 7: a better overall fighter here. Not really much grappling we

537
00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:28,639
Speaker 7: have to worry about. Neither man goes for it. Curtis

538
00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:31,240
Speaker 7: also one hundred percent takedown defense in the UFC through

539
00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:34,640
Speaker 7: six fights, including against some tough grapplers, So just kind

540
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:36,400
Speaker 7: of like that one all around it plus money.

541
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:37,240
Speaker 4: All right, Chentz.

542
00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:40,040
Speaker 3: By the way, those of you that are interested in

543
00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:44,119
Speaker 3: more UFC betting content will be together for the weigh in,

544
00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:47,880
Speaker 3: which is the Action Network video team side giving more

545
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:50,679
Speaker 3: extensive breakdown of UFC two eighty nine, so check that

546
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:53,680
Speaker 3: out on the video side. It will beam that out

547
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:58,400
Speaker 3: on Action YouTube as well as the Action Socials, so

548
00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 3: check that out if you so please. For Shonzrello, Billy Ward,

549
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:03,680
Speaker 3: Brendan glass Sheen, thanks for tuning in to our UFC

550
00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:06,600
Speaker 3: betting preview UFC two to eighty nine going down from

551
00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:11,760
Speaker 3: the Rogers Arena in Vancouver this weekend. Thanks for listening

552
00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:14,879
Speaker 3: to the Action Network podcast presented by Fandal. Have a

553
00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:16,919
Speaker 3: great weekend, Talk to you next week.

554
00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:25,120
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

555
00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:28,360
Speaker 3: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

556
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557
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