WEBVTT - The Pandemic During Flu Season

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day one and

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<v Speaker 1>sixty one since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's

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<v Speaker 1>main story. Doctors are worried that the coming flu season

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<v Speaker 1>will make fighting the pandemic even harder, but countries in

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<v Speaker 1>the southern Hemisphere have already coped with the influenza COVID

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<v Speaker 1>double threat and may have lessons for the US. But first,

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<v Speaker 1>here's what happened in virus news today. New York City's

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<v Speaker 1>positive test rate for COVID nineteen has fallen to its

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<v Speaker 1>lowest level since the pandemic began. The city's mayor, Build

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<v Speaker 1>a Black You said at a news briefing that after

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<v Speaker 1>more than two months of experiencing positive tests rates of

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<v Speaker 1>less than three percent, the city recorded a zero point

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<v Speaker 1>to four test rate this week. De Blasio called New

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<v Speaker 1>York City, once the global epicenter of the outbreak quote,

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<v Speaker 1>one of the safest places in the country when it

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<v Speaker 1>comes to the coronavirus end quote, but he also said

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<v Speaker 1>the city still has a long way to go. Hong

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<v Speaker 1>Kong reported the lowest number of new coronavirus infections since

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<v Speaker 1>a recent surge that turned into its worst outbreak yet.

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<v Speaker 1>The numbers reinforced hopes that stringent citywide containment measures can

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<v Speaker 1>be eased. The city has also seen a decline in

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<v Speaker 1>the shareff cases with unknown origins over the past week,

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<v Speaker 1>signaling that untraceable infections are dwindling. But in Greece, distancing

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<v Speaker 1>rules have been tightened after the country we reported its

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<v Speaker 1>highest number of cases yet. People in two tourist regions

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<v Speaker 1>will have to wear masks both indoors and outdoors, according

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<v Speaker 1>to the government. The authorities also suspended all events and

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<v Speaker 1>prohibited gatherings of more than nine people in the two

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<v Speaker 1>tourist regions. And now for today's main story. Before the

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<v Speaker 1>novel coronavirus, the world was focused on another killer respiratory virus, influenza.

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<v Speaker 1>The flu kills hundreds of thousands of people globally each year.

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<v Speaker 1>The COVID nineteen pandemic hit the US after flu cases

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<v Speaker 1>had peaked, but with the next flu season only a

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<v Speaker 1>couple of months away, doctors are worried that a flu

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<v Speaker 1>epidemic on top of a COVID pandemic could stretch medical

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<v Speaker 1>resources to the breaking point. Bloomberg Senior editor Jason Gale

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<v Speaker 1>reports that countries in the Southern Hemisphere like Australia and

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<v Speaker 1>New Zealand can be a model for dealing with the flu.

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<v Speaker 1>It's late winter here in Australia and it's cold. Ordinarily

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<v Speaker 1>this would be peak flu season, but this is no

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<v Speaker 1>ordinary year. For one thing, there's been a lot less flu.

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<v Speaker 1>Dr Mariam van Kirkoff, the World Whole Organization's technically on

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<v Speaker 1>COVID nineteen, told reporters on Monday that we can thank

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<v Speaker 1>the pandemic for reducing the circulation of seasonal influenza. There

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<v Speaker 1>may be a number of reasons for this, particularly in

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<v Speaker 1>the Southern Hemisphere where they're having their winter flu season.

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<v Speaker 1>Many of the physical distancing and public health and social

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<v Speaker 1>measures that have been put in place which keeps people

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<v Speaker 1>apart may have actually played a role in reducing circulation

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<v Speaker 1>of influenza. Unlike COVID nineteen, vaccines for flu are widely available.

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<v Speaker 1>We also have a number of anti viral drugs that

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<v Speaker 1>can shorten the duration of illness, and so it's important

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<v Speaker 1>that people get vaccinated against influenza when that vaccine becomes available.

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<v Speaker 1>That's really important because it will be quite difficult if

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<v Speaker 1>somebody is infected with either covid or flu and they

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<v Speaker 1>have a flu like illness or cold like symptoms. We

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<v Speaker 1>won't be able to distinguish immediately between whether somebody has

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<v Speaker 1>flu or whether somebody has COVID. We will need testing

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<v Speaker 1>to be able to do that, so it could complicate

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<v Speaker 1>the clinical picture. But there are tools that are in

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<v Speaker 1>place for influenza, and so it is really really important

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<v Speaker 1>that when the vaccine becomes available for flu, that people

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<v Speaker 1>do take that vaccine. People in New Zealand hated that advice.

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<v Speaker 1>This year we have a record high number of flu vaccination,

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<v Speaker 1>muchm to higher than other years. This is Dr Sue Huang.

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<v Speaker 1>She's a virologist in Wellington. I'm a director of a

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<v Speaker 1>richer National Influencer Center from New Zealand at the Institute

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<v Speaker 1>of Environmental Science and the Research. Sue says that if

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<v Speaker 1>the pandemic has a silver lining, this might be one,

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<v Speaker 1>but the covid the impact of lockdown on other respiratue

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<v Speaker 1>viruses and that you can see it is so dramatic

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<v Speaker 1>in temperate regions of the Northern and Southern hemisphere, winter

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<v Speaker 1>is notorious for respiratory diseases. So he says there are

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<v Speaker 1>a number of reasons for that. When it's cold, we're

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<v Speaker 1>indoors more without sunlight and often sharing poorly ventilated space

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<v Speaker 1>with others. Cold, dry air seems to enable respiratory pathogens

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<v Speaker 1>to persist longer. Outdoors is harder for them because the

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<v Speaker 1>sun's ultra violet radiation deactivates pathogens, and fresh air and

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<v Speaker 1>good ventilation dilute the concentration of germs lingering in the air. Also,

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<v Speaker 1>in winter, we have less sun exposure, which reduces vitamin

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<v Speaker 1>D levels and that can weaken our immune systems. On

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<v Speaker 1>top of that, cold dry egg can make the nose

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<v Speaker 1>more hospitable environment for infections. Who says cold temperature, you

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<v Speaker 1>know you you you have less blood supply around your

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<v Speaker 1>nascauso area and then you don't have a good supply

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<v Speaker 1>of those you know, immune cells. Temperature wise, it's been

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<v Speaker 1>an average winter so far in New Zealand, which is

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<v Speaker 1>why the absence of a flu season there is so remarkable.

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<v Speaker 1>You have to realize the New Zealand's a lockdown is

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<v Speaker 1>around March around April, and it is our late autumn

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<v Speaker 1>and to really reach to our winter years and in news,

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<v Speaker 1>even as the lockdown is, you're living in your bubble

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<v Speaker 1>with your family and just a few people you know,

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<v Speaker 1>and in that environd it basically you really really reduced

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<v Speaker 1>the contact of rates, so the infect that the people

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<v Speaker 1>could not really reach to infect the people very well.

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<v Speaker 1>And that that's why we are seeing we have a

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<v Speaker 1>very little for flu, we have very little of RSV,

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<v Speaker 1>we have very little of for many different viruses. In

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<v Speaker 1>New Zealand. The New Zealand government implemented a stringent countrywide

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<v Speaker 1>lockdown on March that led to what was essentially a

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<v Speaker 1>seven week national state at home order. A week before,

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<v Speaker 1>on March nineteen, the South specific nation closed its border

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<v Speaker 1>to almost all travelers. Public life has since returned to

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<v Speaker 1>near normal, with the exception of the Auckland region, where

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<v Speaker 1>restrictions have been reinstated to control an outbreak that began

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<v Speaker 1>late last month. So says. The measures aimed at eliminating

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<v Speaker 1>COVID suppressed most respiratory infections, but not rhinavirus, which could

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<v Speaker 1>turn out to be another reason there is a much

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<v Speaker 1>flu arount. Rhino is a virus really circulated all year round.

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<v Speaker 1>At the background, you see that even in summer we

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<v Speaker 1>can have a rhinovirus circulation. So he thinks rhinovirus spread

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<v Speaker 1>at low levels among household members during the lockdown and

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<v Speaker 1>then proliferated in toddlers once daycase and it's reopened, eventually

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<v Speaker 1>spreading to older age groups. Rhinovirus causes a sore throat,

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<v Speaker 1>running nose, nasal congestion, usual cold symptoms. It's pretty innocuous

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<v Speaker 1>and healthy people. In fact, it may even provide some

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<v Speaker 1>benefit in fending off influenza. Sue says. It's hypothesized that

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<v Speaker 1>when the immune system is fighting rhinovirus, the body's first

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<v Speaker 1>line of defense, including signaling molecules called cyderkins, are already

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<v Speaker 1>in the nose and throat, corralling foreign invaders. Those anti

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<v Speaker 1>viral cytocoms somehow will reduce the success susceptibility for other

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<v Speaker 1>virus to establish in the population. You know, what we

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<v Speaker 1>are observing is lots of a rhino going on in

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<v Speaker 1>the country and the perhaps there's some interaction between the

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<v Speaker 1>rhinovirus and the flu viruses, So there's some interplay between

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<v Speaker 1>the rhino and the flu in relation the immune response.

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<v Speaker 1>So that's another fascinating thing we want to observe. But

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<v Speaker 1>the furtherest see what is really going on, So says

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<v Speaker 1>France and Sweden observed a similar phenomenon during the two

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<v Speaker 1>thousand and nine one one influenza pandemic. I asked Dr

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<v Speaker 1>Bruce Aylwood at w H, a senior advisor, whether someone

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<v Speaker 1>who has COVID nineteen as well as another respiratory infection

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<v Speaker 1>like flu or rhinovirus would have a better or worse

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<v Speaker 1>prognosis than someone who has COVID alone. Bruce said the

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<v Speaker 1>evidence is mixed, but the risk of co infection should

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<v Speaker 1>be avoided, especially since both flu and COVID nineteen cause

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<v Speaker 1>worst disease and older people. Plus Berry says a coughing

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<v Speaker 1>flu infected person may more easily spread a mild covid infection.

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<v Speaker 1>In New Zealand's case, going hard and going early with

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<v Speaker 1>the nationwide lockdown has beaten back to life threatening viruses

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<v Speaker 1>over winter, but it's come a great economic cost. From

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<v Speaker 1>the infectious disease perspective, it is really big or traumatically effect,

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<v Speaker 1>which is a great but the economical cost is too much.

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<v Speaker 1>Perhaps we need to learn a bit the more, something

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<v Speaker 1>like the mask wearing better personal hygien you know, a

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<v Speaker 1>better you know, coughing type of you know ethics, that

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<v Speaker 1>kind of stuff potentiative would help us in the future

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<v Speaker 1>to reduce the transmission in the population. Coughing and sneezing

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<v Speaker 1>into an elbow, frequent thorough handwashing, avoiding mixing with other

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<v Speaker 1>people when you're unwell, and wearing a face mask when

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<v Speaker 1>physical distancing isn't possible. These aren't expensive measures, and most

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<v Speaker 1>people are capable of practicing them. Actually, if everybody follow

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<v Speaker 1>that kind of little things, good hygienes, you know, and

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<v Speaker 1>a good habit, and and that the potential that would

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<v Speaker 1>really help us for the future mitigating of the fluid

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<v Speaker 1>infection year after year after year. The pandemic is shaping

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<v Speaker 1>society in many ways, not all of them bad. Perhaps

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<v Speaker 1>one thing COVID nineteen will teach us is to be

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<v Speaker 1>more hygienic, to be better at protecting others from the

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<v Speaker 1>infections we might carry, and that might prevent the spread

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<v Speaker 1>of many other diseases. That was Jason Gail, and that's

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<v Speaker 1>it for our show today. For coverage of the outbreak

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<v Speaker 1>from one and twenty bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>dot com slash coronavirus, and if you like the show,

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<v Speaker 1>please leave us a review and a rating. On Apple.

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<v Speaker 1>Podcasts are Spotify. It's the best way to help more

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<v Speaker 1>listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daly Edition is

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<v Speaker 1>produced by Topher foreheads Jordan gas Pure, Magnus Hendrickson, and

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<v Speaker 1>me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by Jason Gale.

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<v Speaker 1>Original music by Leo Sidrin. Our editors are Francesca Levi

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<v Speaker 1>and Rick Shine. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head of podcasts.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening to l