1
00:00:04,120 --> 00:00:09,280
Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day one and

2
00:00:09,320 --> 00:00:14,960
Speaker 1: sixty one since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's

3
00:00:14,960 --> 00:00:19,440
Speaker 1: main story. Doctors are worried that the coming flu season

4
00:00:19,520 --> 00:00:24,880
Speaker 1: will make fighting the pandemic even harder, but countries in

5
00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:29,760
Speaker 1: the southern Hemisphere have already coped with the influenza COVID

6
00:00:30,120 --> 00:00:35,880
Speaker 1: double threat and may have lessons for the US. But first,

7
00:00:36,560 --> 00:00:50,640
Speaker 1: here's what happened in virus news today. New York City's

8
00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:54,440
Speaker 1: positive test rate for COVID nineteen has fallen to its

9
00:00:54,480 --> 00:00:59,600
Speaker 1: lowest level since the pandemic began. The city's mayor, Build

10
00:00:59,600 --> 00:01:02,680
Speaker 1: a Black You said at a news briefing that after

11
00:01:02,760 --> 00:01:06,440
Speaker 1: more than two months of experiencing positive tests rates of

12
00:01:06,560 --> 00:01:10,640
Speaker 1: less than three percent, the city recorded a zero point

13
00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:15,759
Speaker 1: to four test rate this week. De Blasio called New

14
00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:19,640
Speaker 1: York City, once the global epicenter of the outbreak quote,

15
00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:23,000
Speaker 1: one of the safest places in the country when it

16
00:01:23,080 --> 00:01:27,640
Speaker 1: comes to the coronavirus end quote, but he also said

17
00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:32,520
Speaker 1: the city still has a long way to go. Hong

18
00:01:32,600 --> 00:01:37,080
Speaker 1: Kong reported the lowest number of new coronavirus infections since

19
00:01:37,120 --> 00:01:41,559
Speaker 1: a recent surge that turned into its worst outbreak yet.

20
00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:47,560
Speaker 1: The numbers reinforced hopes that stringent citywide containment measures can

21
00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:51,560
Speaker 1: be eased. The city has also seen a decline in

22
00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:55,280
Speaker 1: the shareff cases with unknown origins over the past week,

23
00:01:55,800 --> 00:02:04,120
Speaker 1: signaling that untraceable infections are dwindling. But in Greece, distancing

24
00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:07,680
Speaker 1: rules have been tightened after the country we reported its

25
00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:12,400
Speaker 1: highest number of cases yet. People in two tourist regions

26
00:02:12,560 --> 00:02:17,440
Speaker 1: will have to wear masks both indoors and outdoors, according

27
00:02:17,480 --> 00:02:22,520
Speaker 1: to the government. The authorities also suspended all events and

28
00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:26,160
Speaker 1: prohibited gatherings of more than nine people in the two

29
00:02:26,200 --> 00:02:36,840
Speaker 1: tourist regions. And now for today's main story. Before the

30
00:02:36,919 --> 00:02:43,320
Speaker 1: novel coronavirus, the world was focused on another killer respiratory virus, influenza.

31
00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:48,960
Speaker 1: The flu kills hundreds of thousands of people globally each year.

32
00:02:50,040 --> 00:02:54,320
Speaker 1: The COVID nineteen pandemic hit the US after flu cases

33
00:02:54,360 --> 00:02:58,360
Speaker 1: had peaked, but with the next flu season only a

34
00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:01,760
Speaker 1: couple of months away, doctors are worried that a flu

35
00:03:01,880 --> 00:03:06,480
Speaker 1: epidemic on top of a COVID pandemic could stretch medical

36
00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:11,600
Speaker 1: resources to the breaking point. Bloomberg Senior editor Jason Gale

37
00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:15,600
Speaker 1: reports that countries in the Southern Hemisphere like Australia and

38
00:03:15,680 --> 00:03:19,720
Speaker 1: New Zealand can be a model for dealing with the flu.

39
00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:32,200
Speaker 1: It's late winter here in Australia and it's cold. Ordinarily

40
00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:35,240
Speaker 1: this would be peak flu season, but this is no

41
00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:38,720
Speaker 1: ordinary year. For one thing, there's been a lot less flu.

42
00:03:39,400 --> 00:03:42,520
Speaker 1: Dr Mariam van Kirkoff, the World Whole Organization's technically on

43
00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:45,800
Speaker 1: COVID nineteen, told reporters on Monday that we can thank

44
00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:51,880
Speaker 1: the pandemic for reducing the circulation of seasonal influenza. There

45
00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:54,040
Speaker 1: may be a number of reasons for this, particularly in

46
00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:57,520
Speaker 1: the Southern Hemisphere where they're having their winter flu season.

47
00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:01,000
Speaker 1: Many of the physical distancing and public health and social

48
00:04:01,000 --> 00:04:03,560
Speaker 1: measures that have been put in place which keeps people

49
00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:07,560
Speaker 1: apart may have actually played a role in reducing circulation

50
00:04:07,600 --> 00:04:13,360
Speaker 1: of influenza. Unlike COVID nineteen, vaccines for flu are widely available.

51
00:04:13,840 --> 00:04:16,320
Speaker 1: We also have a number of anti viral drugs that

52
00:04:16,400 --> 00:04:19,880
Speaker 1: can shorten the duration of illness, and so it's important

53
00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:23,680
Speaker 1: that people get vaccinated against influenza when that vaccine becomes available.

54
00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:27,480
Speaker 1: That's really important because it will be quite difficult if

55
00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:30,440
Speaker 1: somebody is infected with either covid or flu and they

56
00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:33,080
Speaker 1: have a flu like illness or cold like symptoms. We

57
00:04:33,120 --> 00:04:36,520
Speaker 1: won't be able to distinguish immediately between whether somebody has

58
00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:39,000
Speaker 1: flu or whether somebody has COVID. We will need testing

59
00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:41,240
Speaker 1: to be able to do that, so it could complicate

60
00:04:41,279 --> 00:04:43,839
Speaker 1: the clinical picture. But there are tools that are in

61
00:04:43,880 --> 00:04:47,240
Speaker 1: place for influenza, and so it is really really important

62
00:04:47,240 --> 00:04:50,039
Speaker 1: that when the vaccine becomes available for flu, that people

63
00:04:50,080 --> 00:04:53,760
Speaker 1: do take that vaccine. People in New Zealand hated that advice.

64
00:04:54,120 --> 00:04:59,000
Speaker 1: This year we have a record high number of flu vaccination,

65
00:04:59,480 --> 00:05:03,919
Speaker 1: muchm to higher than other years. This is Dr Sue Huang.

66
00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:07,680
Speaker 1: She's a virologist in Wellington. I'm a director of a

67
00:05:08,040 --> 00:05:13,200
Speaker 1: richer National Influencer Center from New Zealand at the Institute

68
00:05:13,200 --> 00:05:20,320
Speaker 1: of Environmental Science and the Research. Sue says that if

69
00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:24,000
Speaker 1: the pandemic has a silver lining, this might be one,

70
00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:30,240
Speaker 1: but the covid the impact of lockdown on other respiratue

71
00:05:30,320 --> 00:05:34,159
Speaker 1: viruses and that you can see it is so dramatic

72
00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:37,640
Speaker 1: in temperate regions of the Northern and Southern hemisphere, winter

73
00:05:37,920 --> 00:05:41,680
Speaker 1: is notorious for respiratory diseases. So he says there are

74
00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:44,440
Speaker 1: a number of reasons for that. When it's cold, we're

75
00:05:44,440 --> 00:05:48,360
Speaker 1: indoors more without sunlight and often sharing poorly ventilated space

76
00:05:48,400 --> 00:05:52,599
Speaker 1: with others. Cold, dry air seems to enable respiratory pathogens

77
00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:56,320
Speaker 1: to persist longer. Outdoors is harder for them because the

78
00:05:56,320 --> 00:06:00,960
Speaker 1: sun's ultra violet radiation deactivates pathogens, and fresh air and

79
00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:05,799
Speaker 1: good ventilation dilute the concentration of germs lingering in the air. Also,

80
00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:09,520
Speaker 1: in winter, we have less sun exposure, which reduces vitamin

81
00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:12,839
Speaker 1: D levels and that can weaken our immune systems. On

82
00:06:12,920 --> 00:06:15,440
Speaker 1: top of that, cold dry egg can make the nose

83
00:06:15,720 --> 00:06:20,960
Speaker 1: more hospitable environment for infections. Who says cold temperature, you

84
00:06:20,960 --> 00:06:26,440
Speaker 1: know you you you have less blood supply around your

85
00:06:26,760 --> 00:06:32,000
Speaker 1: nascauso area and then you don't have a good supply

86
00:06:32,600 --> 00:06:39,279
Speaker 1: of those you know, immune cells. Temperature wise, it's been

87
00:06:39,320 --> 00:06:42,440
Speaker 1: an average winter so far in New Zealand, which is

88
00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:45,800
Speaker 1: why the absence of a flu season there is so remarkable.

89
00:06:48,600 --> 00:06:52,159
Speaker 1: You have to realize the New Zealand's a lockdown is

90
00:06:52,279 --> 00:06:59,040
Speaker 1: around March around April, and it is our late autumn

91
00:06:59,520 --> 00:07:03,680
Speaker 1: and to really reach to our winter years and in news,

92
00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:05,960
Speaker 1: even as the lockdown is, you're living in your bubble

93
00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:09,160
Speaker 1: with your family and just a few people you know,

94
00:07:09,640 --> 00:07:14,000
Speaker 1: and in that environd it basically you really really reduced

95
00:07:14,080 --> 00:07:16,840
Speaker 1: the contact of rates, so the infect that the people

96
00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:20,960
Speaker 1: could not really reach to infect the people very well.

97
00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:24,200
Speaker 1: And that that's why we are seeing we have a

98
00:07:24,280 --> 00:07:28,160
Speaker 1: very little for flu, we have very little of RSV,

99
00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:32,800
Speaker 1: we have very little of for many different viruses. In

100
00:07:33,360 --> 00:07:37,400
Speaker 1: New Zealand. The New Zealand government implemented a stringent countrywide

101
00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:40,600
Speaker 1: lockdown on March that led to what was essentially a

102
00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:44,080
Speaker 1: seven week national state at home order. A week before,

103
00:07:44,200 --> 00:07:47,600
Speaker 1: on March nineteen, the South specific nation closed its border

104
00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:51,720
Speaker 1: to almost all travelers. Public life has since returned to

105
00:07:51,800 --> 00:07:55,200
Speaker 1: near normal, with the exception of the Auckland region, where

106
00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:58,160
Speaker 1: restrictions have been reinstated to control an outbreak that began

107
00:07:58,280 --> 00:08:01,960
Speaker 1: late last month. So says. The measures aimed at eliminating

108
00:08:01,960 --> 00:08:07,440
Speaker 1: COVID suppressed most respiratory infections, but not rhinavirus, which could

109
00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:09,480
Speaker 1: turn out to be another reason there is a much

110
00:08:09,480 --> 00:08:15,559
Speaker 1: flu arount. Rhino is a virus really circulated all year round.

111
00:08:16,160 --> 00:08:18,920
Speaker 1: At the background, you see that even in summer we

112
00:08:18,920 --> 00:08:26,080
Speaker 1: can have a rhinovirus circulation. So he thinks rhinovirus spread

113
00:08:26,120 --> 00:08:29,520
Speaker 1: at low levels among household members during the lockdown and

114
00:08:29,560 --> 00:08:34,360
Speaker 1: then proliferated in toddlers once daycase and it's reopened, eventually

115
00:08:34,400 --> 00:08:38,680
Speaker 1: spreading to older age groups. Rhinovirus causes a sore throat,

116
00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:44,120
Speaker 1: running nose, nasal congestion, usual cold symptoms. It's pretty innocuous

117
00:08:44,160 --> 00:08:47,600
Speaker 1: and healthy people. In fact, it may even provide some

118
00:08:47,679 --> 00:08:52,480
Speaker 1: benefit in fending off influenza. Sue says. It's hypothesized that

119
00:08:52,559 --> 00:08:55,760
Speaker 1: when the immune system is fighting rhinovirus, the body's first

120
00:08:55,800 --> 00:09:00,520
Speaker 1: line of defense, including signaling molecules called cyderkins, are already

121
00:09:00,559 --> 00:09:06,280
Speaker 1: in the nose and throat, corralling foreign invaders. Those anti

122
00:09:06,440 --> 00:09:14,440
Speaker 1: viral cytocoms somehow will reduce the success susceptibility for other

123
00:09:14,520 --> 00:09:17,960
Speaker 1: virus to establish in the population. You know, what we

124
00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:21,000
Speaker 1: are observing is lots of a rhino going on in

125
00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:25,520
Speaker 1: the country and the perhaps there's some interaction between the

126
00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:30,360
Speaker 1: rhinovirus and the flu viruses, So there's some interplay between

127
00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:34,000
Speaker 1: the rhino and the flu in relation the immune response.

128
00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:38,000
Speaker 1: So that's another fascinating thing we want to observe. But

129
00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:45,200
Speaker 1: the furtherest see what is really going on, So says

130
00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:48,520
Speaker 1: France and Sweden observed a similar phenomenon during the two

131
00:09:48,520 --> 00:09:52,680
Speaker 1: thousand and nine one one influenza pandemic. I asked Dr

132
00:09:52,679 --> 00:09:56,000
Speaker 1: Bruce Aylwood at w H, a senior advisor, whether someone

133
00:09:56,040 --> 00:09:59,679
Speaker 1: who has COVID nineteen as well as another respiratory infection

134
00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:03,440
Speaker 1: like flu or rhinovirus would have a better or worse

135
00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:07,560
Speaker 1: prognosis than someone who has COVID alone. Bruce said the

136
00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:10,880
Speaker 1: evidence is mixed, but the risk of co infection should

137
00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:14,640
Speaker 1: be avoided, especially since both flu and COVID nineteen cause

138
00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:18,600
Speaker 1: worst disease and older people. Plus Berry says a coughing

139
00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:22,760
Speaker 1: flu infected person may more easily spread a mild covid infection.

140
00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:26,520
Speaker 1: In New Zealand's case, going hard and going early with

141
00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:30,400
Speaker 1: the nationwide lockdown has beaten back to life threatening viruses

142
00:10:30,600 --> 00:10:34,720
Speaker 1: over winter, but it's come a great economic cost. From

143
00:10:34,760 --> 00:10:39,640
Speaker 1: the infectious disease perspective, it is really big or traumatically effect,

144
00:10:39,760 --> 00:10:43,600
Speaker 1: which is a great but the economical cost is too much.

145
00:10:43,960 --> 00:10:46,480
Speaker 1: Perhaps we need to learn a bit the more, something

146
00:10:46,559 --> 00:10:51,040
Speaker 1: like the mask wearing better personal hygien you know, a

147
00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:55,360
Speaker 1: better you know, coughing type of you know ethics, that

148
00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:58,120
Speaker 1: kind of stuff potentiative would help us in the future

149
00:10:58,559 --> 00:11:04,040
Speaker 1: to reduce the transmission in the population. Coughing and sneezing

150
00:11:04,040 --> 00:11:08,480
Speaker 1: into an elbow, frequent thorough handwashing, avoiding mixing with other

151
00:11:08,520 --> 00:11:11,800
Speaker 1: people when you're unwell, and wearing a face mask when

152
00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:17,560
Speaker 1: physical distancing isn't possible. These aren't expensive measures, and most

153
00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:21,800
Speaker 1: people are capable of practicing them. Actually, if everybody follow

154
00:11:21,880 --> 00:11:25,320
Speaker 1: that kind of little things, good hygienes, you know, and

155
00:11:25,400 --> 00:11:28,920
Speaker 1: a good habit, and and that the potential that would

156
00:11:29,000 --> 00:11:32,920
Speaker 1: really help us for the future mitigating of the fluid

157
00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:37,800
Speaker 1: infection year after year after year. The pandemic is shaping

158
00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:42,000
Speaker 1: society in many ways, not all of them bad. Perhaps

159
00:11:42,160 --> 00:11:44,800
Speaker 1: one thing COVID nineteen will teach us is to be

160
00:11:44,880 --> 00:11:48,280
Speaker 1: more hygienic, to be better at protecting others from the

161
00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:52,680
Speaker 1: infections we might carry, and that might prevent the spread

162
00:11:52,800 --> 00:12:06,080
Speaker 1: of many other diseases. That was Jason Gail, and that's

163
00:12:06,120 --> 00:12:08,920
Speaker 1: it for our show today. For coverage of the outbreak

164
00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:12,599
Speaker 1: from one and twenty bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg

165
00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:17,199
Speaker 1: dot com slash coronavirus, and if you like the show,

166
00:12:17,679 --> 00:12:20,480
Speaker 1: please leave us a review and a rating. On Apple.

167
00:12:20,559 --> 00:12:24,280
Speaker 1: Podcasts are Spotify. It's the best way to help more

168
00:12:24,360 --> 00:12:29,640
Speaker 1: listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daly Edition is

169
00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:34,400
Speaker 1: produced by Topher foreheads Jordan gas Pure, Magnus Hendrickson, and

170
00:12:34,480 --> 00:12:39,600
Speaker 1: me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by Jason Gale.

171
00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:45,040
Speaker 1: Original music by Leo Sidrin. Our editors are Francesca Levi

172
00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:49,920
Speaker 1: and Rick Shine. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head of podcasts.

173
00:12:50,600 --> 00:13:13,719
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to l