1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:05,520 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast. It's on target. 2 00:00:06,120 --> 00:00:07,600 Speaker 2: It is good helloa. 3 00:00:10,680 --> 00:00:15,920 Speaker 1: All right, here we go throwing in Joe spectacular catch. 4 00:00:16,040 --> 00:00:19,320 Speaker 3: So I'm sitting it's your cat touchdown that we see. 5 00:00:19,640 --> 00:00:22,360 Speaker 3: Most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to win. 6 00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:27,240 Speaker 1: God, that's incredible. Big bank, small banks. I like to 7 00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:27,880 Speaker 1: make money. 8 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:28,320 Speaker 2: All right. 9 00:00:28,960 --> 00:00:31,479 Speaker 4: This is the ultimate kaba you want to fall? 10 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:35,800 Speaker 1: And we are underway. 11 00:00:37,720 --> 00:00:39,320 Speaker 3: What's going on everybody? Today? 12 00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:43,159 Speaker 2: We are talking about how to bet the NFL preseason. 13 00:00:43,159 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 2: I'm your host, Dan Martinez, and with me once again 14 00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:49,000 Speaker 2: are my two guys, Chris Raymond and Sean Kerner. How 15 00:00:49,080 --> 00:00:51,280 Speaker 2: you guys doing this is a little bit of calm 16 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:53,159 Speaker 2: before the storm, but that doesn't mean there's not an 17 00:00:53,320 --> 00:00:54,120 Speaker 2: edge to be had. 18 00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:55,840 Speaker 1: How you guys doing feeling good? 19 00:00:55,880 --> 00:00:56,040 Speaker 2: Man? 20 00:00:56,080 --> 00:00:58,600 Speaker 1: I mean, we got three days until the Hall of 21 00:00:58,640 --> 00:00:59,160 Speaker 1: Fame game. 22 00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:01,120 Speaker 4: It finally fit as like football is bat you know, 23 00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:03,520 Speaker 4: people start gonna talk about Madden and stuff again. 24 00:01:03,640 --> 00:01:04,920 Speaker 1: So is that time of year? 25 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:05,479 Speaker 3: All right? 26 00:01:05,520 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 2: So let me ask you guys though, and you know, Sean, 27 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:10,120 Speaker 2: I'll start with you. Let's get the elephant out of 28 00:01:10,160 --> 00:01:13,840 Speaker 2: the room, you know, because yeah, so Madden raidens maybe 29 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:17,240 Speaker 2: NFL or you know Fantasy football draft season before a 30 00:01:17,240 --> 00:01:21,320 Speaker 2: lot of people, they are not really dove in with both. 31 00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:24,360 Speaker 3: Feet just yet into the NFL. So let's talk about it. 32 00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:26,480 Speaker 2: I mean, is this like we were joking about, just 33 00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:27,880 Speaker 2: like the Degenerate special. 34 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:29,920 Speaker 3: Hell, I'll bet two eight year old. 35 00:01:29,720 --> 00:01:33,280 Speaker 2: Girls kickboxing, But the question is is there really an 36 00:01:33,480 --> 00:01:34,640 Speaker 2: edge to be had here? 37 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:35,960 Speaker 3: Yeah? 38 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:38,080 Speaker 5: And I mean, don't get me wrong. I used to 39 00:01:38,120 --> 00:01:42,280 Speaker 5: think only degenerates bet the preseason. And I'm a degenerate myself, 40 00:01:42,360 --> 00:01:43,920 Speaker 5: so I know I wouldn't fault anybody. 41 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:46,640 Speaker 1: But I started gave me the leen on those eight 42 00:01:46,760 --> 00:01:48,960 Speaker 1: year old kickboxing girls exactly exactly. 43 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:51,560 Speaker 5: But last year it was the first time I really 44 00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:54,160 Speaker 5: just dove in you said two feet. I just went 45 00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:57,000 Speaker 5: all in when it comes to betting on preseason because 46 00:01:57,040 --> 00:02:00,360 Speaker 5: I'm already projecting all the players for DFS and player 47 00:02:00,360 --> 00:02:03,280 Speaker 5: props anyway that I realize I have a really good 48 00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:06,280 Speaker 5: handle on all the information. And that's honestly the biggest 49 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:08,919 Speaker 5: edge when it comes to preseason is it so hard 50 00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:11,160 Speaker 5: to get information. So if you have it and you 51 00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:13,680 Speaker 5: know when certain players are playing or when they're going 52 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:15,920 Speaker 5: to be playing their starters, you can use that to 53 00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:18,200 Speaker 5: your advantage. So I found that there was a massive 54 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:22,040 Speaker 5: edge in preseason betting, either before the game or in games. 55 00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:24,400 Speaker 5: So yeah, going into this season, I am all in 56 00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:25,359 Speaker 5: on preseason betting. 57 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:26,720 Speaker 3: Hey, Chris, what about you? 58 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:28,360 Speaker 2: You know one of the things Sean mentioned was this 59 00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:30,639 Speaker 2: idea of he was already doing this work in the 60 00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:33,520 Speaker 2: DFS world. And I know there are edges to be 61 00:02:33,560 --> 00:02:35,520 Speaker 2: had in the DFS world when you talk to beat 62 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:37,800 Speaker 2: riders and you look at snap counts, But what do 63 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:40,399 Speaker 2: you think is there an edge to be had here 64 00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:41,040 Speaker 2: in August? 65 00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:42,239 Speaker 3: Yeah? 66 00:02:42,240 --> 00:02:45,359 Speaker 4: I think there absolutely is, Dane, and it's because of 67 00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:49,320 Speaker 4: you know what Seawn alluded to. Like the information, it's 68 00:02:49,320 --> 00:02:52,560 Speaker 4: a it's it's out there, but it's it's different kind 69 00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:55,680 Speaker 4: of information than I think you need in the regular season. 70 00:02:55,720 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 4: You really do need to be plugged into these team 71 00:02:57,760 --> 00:03:01,079 Speaker 4: beat right reports and these team practice and you really 72 00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:04,640 Speaker 4: need to understand, you know, who's the second team, who's 73 00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:06,639 Speaker 4: the third team on the depth chart? You know, who 74 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:08,760 Speaker 4: do they want to see more of? Who has been 75 00:03:08,840 --> 00:03:11,919 Speaker 4: standing out in practice. That that's not to say he 76 00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 4: is going to have success in the game, but he's 77 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:15,040 Speaker 4: gonna at least get more snaps, and that you know, 78 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 4: it's a lot of knowing who's going to play, and 79 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:21,680 Speaker 4: then it's also I think unlike the regular season, I 80 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:23,160 Speaker 4: think it's it's a little more. 81 00:03:23,000 --> 00:03:24,120 Speaker 1: About picking your spots. 82 00:03:24,160 --> 00:03:27,560 Speaker 4: I think there are certain trends that are important, where 83 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:31,760 Speaker 4: Like you have to understand a coach like John Harbaugh, 84 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:35,120 Speaker 4: for example, with the Ravens, he tends to approach preseason 85 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:39,720 Speaker 4: a little bit differently than most other coaches. So you know, 86 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:42,880 Speaker 4: I personally think the Baltimore Ravens in the preseason is 87 00:03:42,880 --> 00:03:45,880 Speaker 4: the best bet in sports. And they're forty and twelve 88 00:03:45,960 --> 00:03:49,240 Speaker 4: under Harbors, seventy seven percent straight up, they're thirty six 89 00:03:49,320 --> 00:03:51,760 Speaker 4: and fifteen with one push against the spread, that is 90 00:03:51,800 --> 00:03:54,840 Speaker 4: a seventy one percent cover rate against the spread. 91 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:57,440 Speaker 1: And since twenty sixteen. 92 00:03:57,280 --> 00:03:59,720 Speaker 4: They're twenty and oh straight up in the preseason and 93 00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:01,960 Speaker 4: seventeen two and one against the spread. 94 00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:05,720 Speaker 1: So like my preseason like, while. 95 00:04:05,560 --> 00:04:07,320 Speaker 4: There's a lot of edges to be had, that's one 96 00:04:07,320 --> 00:04:09,720 Speaker 4: of the things that like I'm paying more attention to. 97 00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:11,640 Speaker 4: Where is like I'm not a big trends guy, Like 98 00:04:11,680 --> 00:04:13,920 Speaker 4: I'm aware of trends, but I always think you have 99 00:04:13,920 --> 00:04:14,560 Speaker 4: to handicap. 100 00:04:14,600 --> 00:04:16,560 Speaker 1: Whereas here there are certain things that we don't. 101 00:04:16,560 --> 00:04:18,880 Speaker 4: We get such a small sample of preseason games each year, 102 00:04:18,880 --> 00:04:21,240 Speaker 4: there's only three that once you have a certain coach 103 00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:23,560 Speaker 4: who has built up a sample of fifty two games, 104 00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:26,960 Speaker 4: you can really start to understand how he's going to 105 00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:30,719 Speaker 4: approach that. And also there's another edge comes from the 106 00:04:30,720 --> 00:04:33,760 Speaker 4: fact that there's just there's the I think the information 107 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:36,760 Speaker 4: between you and the books is a little more unequal footing, right, 108 00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:39,039 Speaker 4: Like the books is kind of like props. You know, 109 00:04:39,120 --> 00:04:42,240 Speaker 4: certain props they're putting out and they're not spending as 110 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:44,080 Speaker 4: much time on it, and I think that's kind of 111 00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:45,880 Speaker 4: the same thing with the preseason There's just not enough 112 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:48,800 Speaker 4: information to fully model and spend as much time on it. 113 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:50,599 Speaker 4: So I would say some you know, people like Sean 114 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:53,359 Speaker 4: and I are probably spending even more time than the 115 00:04:53,360 --> 00:04:56,000 Speaker 4: books are with with a lot of this information. 116 00:04:56,080 --> 00:04:58,640 Speaker 1: And that's why I think there's there's an edge to 117 00:04:58,680 --> 00:04:59,000 Speaker 1: be had. 118 00:04:59,160 --> 00:05:01,640 Speaker 2: You know, it's interesting talk about being on even footing 119 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:03,880 Speaker 2: with the books. I remember in years past, with the 120 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:08,000 Speaker 2: introduction of the AAF and the XFL, we also thought 121 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:12,160 Speaker 2: about kind of being on even footing with the books themselves. 122 00:05:12,200 --> 00:05:14,160 Speaker 2: And then it comes down to the information you guys 123 00:05:14,160 --> 00:05:17,760 Speaker 2: are both talking about the information. So Sean, talk to me, like, 124 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:22,760 Speaker 2: what are the kinds of information that you're looking for? 125 00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:26,039 Speaker 2: Is it snap count? Is it what position battles are 126 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:28,520 Speaker 2: going on? Is it if a coach is really going 127 00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:31,400 Speaker 2: to be aggressive and try to win because he's a 128 00:05:31,400 --> 00:05:34,000 Speaker 2: new first year head coach. Like, what are the kinds 129 00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:37,200 Speaker 2: of information that you are looking for, whether it be 130 00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:38,920 Speaker 2: from grief reporters or anybody else. 131 00:05:39,720 --> 00:05:42,960 Speaker 5: Yeah, so it's it's all the above. I mean again, 132 00:05:43,040 --> 00:05:46,800 Speaker 5: I'm projecting every player how long they'll play, win they'll play, 133 00:05:46,839 --> 00:05:48,800 Speaker 5: which comes in handy for in game betting. We could 134 00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:51,000 Speaker 5: get to that later. But a perfect example of a 135 00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:53,400 Speaker 5: bet last year that I made was, you know, the 136 00:05:53,440 --> 00:05:56,040 Speaker 5: Panthers were having their dress rehearsal in Week three, which 137 00:05:56,080 --> 00:05:58,440 Speaker 5: is now the last week of the preseason, so I 138 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:01,239 Speaker 5: knew they were going to play their entire starting lineup 139 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:04,360 Speaker 5: for the first half for the entire first half. And 140 00:06:04,400 --> 00:06:06,640 Speaker 5: the Steelers, since they played in the Hall of Fame game, 141 00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:10,160 Speaker 5: it was more of just the scrub ball where they 142 00:06:10,279 --> 00:06:12,760 Speaker 5: rested all their starters and they had all the backups 143 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:15,240 Speaker 5: that were on the roster bubble playing the game. So 144 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:17,760 Speaker 5: I took the Panthers minus three and a half for 145 00:06:17,839 --> 00:06:21,039 Speaker 5: the first half. I know, you know, Sam Darnold's not good, 146 00:06:21,080 --> 00:06:23,840 Speaker 5: but going up against third stringers and fourth stringers, he's 147 00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:26,799 Speaker 5: not bad. So they covered easily. It was seventeen to nothing. 148 00:06:26,800 --> 00:06:29,040 Speaker 5: I think they messed out on like another touchdown. They 149 00:06:29,080 --> 00:06:31,240 Speaker 5: went for it on fourth and goal or something. So 150 00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:33,279 Speaker 5: it was a blowout. But that was just an example 151 00:06:33,360 --> 00:06:36,520 Speaker 5: of two teams having a completely different approach of the game, 152 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:39,200 Speaker 5: just based on scheduling. So just being aware of that 153 00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:42,360 Speaker 5: and knowing when and where to attacks, that's where I 154 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:43,760 Speaker 5: think you get the biggest edge. 155 00:06:44,160 --> 00:06:46,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, knowing the intent and the objective of 156 00:06:46,839 --> 00:06:49,159 Speaker 2: the team, right, Sometimes it's not just to win. Sometimes 157 00:06:49,320 --> 00:06:52,880 Speaker 2: to get a long, hard look at certain guys because 158 00:06:53,080 --> 00:06:55,119 Speaker 2: they have to make their decision as they get down 159 00:06:55,360 --> 00:06:57,839 Speaker 2: to fifty three. I mean, Chris, one of the things 160 00:06:57,880 --> 00:07:00,919 Speaker 2: that Sean mentioned is the quote unquote dress rehearsal, and 161 00:07:00,960 --> 00:07:03,479 Speaker 2: I wanted to ask you about that. It used to be, Hey, 162 00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:06,480 Speaker 2: the third preseason game, we're gonna see these starters, you know, 163 00:07:06,640 --> 00:07:07,640 Speaker 2: for a full half. 164 00:07:07,960 --> 00:07:10,040 Speaker 3: Is that really still the case? I Mean, there's a 165 00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:11,440 Speaker 3: lot of coaches. 166 00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:13,720 Speaker 2: Now that are kind of ashewing that even for something 167 00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:17,160 Speaker 2: like the joint practices that happened earlier. 168 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:19,560 Speaker 3: On in the kind of training camp schedule. 169 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:22,720 Speaker 2: So so, Chris, are you still looking at like week 170 00:07:22,800 --> 00:07:25,480 Speaker 2: three as different than the other weeks. 171 00:07:26,840 --> 00:07:29,280 Speaker 4: No, it's a case by case basis because and this 172 00:07:29,320 --> 00:07:31,400 Speaker 4: is why you have to I think you know, your 173 00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:33,880 Speaker 4: question to Sean was you know what kind of information 174 00:07:33,920 --> 00:07:36,240 Speaker 4: are you looking for? I think right keeping up with 175 00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:40,480 Speaker 4: beat reports is key because for what's gonna happen is 176 00:07:40,520 --> 00:07:43,640 Speaker 4: nowadays with you know, they're being such access to information. 177 00:07:43,760 --> 00:07:46,840 Speaker 4: Is a beat reporter, there's gonna be a report on 178 00:07:46,960 --> 00:07:49,560 Speaker 4: a practice every day. So every day of training camp 179 00:07:49,640 --> 00:07:52,000 Speaker 4: there's a new article coming out from at least one, 180 00:07:52,040 --> 00:07:53,000 Speaker 4: but it's usually many. 181 00:07:53,040 --> 00:07:54,960 Speaker 1: Almost all the Beat reporters are doing. 182 00:07:54,760 --> 00:07:56,400 Speaker 4: A day by day count, and if you can kind 183 00:07:56,400 --> 00:08:00,000 Speaker 4: of keep up with those, then you're gonna they're gonna 184 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:01,480 Speaker 4: have access to coaches. 185 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:04,040 Speaker 1: They're gonna talk to coaches, they're gonna talk to position coaches. 186 00:08:04,400 --> 00:08:07,160 Speaker 4: And because it's sometimes it's not the head coach that's 187 00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:10,240 Speaker 4: gonna decide playing time, and like sometimes it's like yeah, 188 00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:12,200 Speaker 4: it might be the Okay, the wide receivers coach wants 189 00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:14,080 Speaker 4: to see two guys, and so they're gonna play more. 190 00:08:14,120 --> 00:08:16,560 Speaker 4: And but the point is if you kind of keep 191 00:08:16,640 --> 00:08:19,040 Speaker 4: up with this stuff, you you start to understand, Okay, 192 00:08:19,200 --> 00:08:21,920 Speaker 4: who's practicing with the ones, the two, the threes, you 193 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:25,240 Speaker 4: understand who you know, you're you're hearing what the coaches 194 00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:28,040 Speaker 4: are saying, and that's how you know what their plans 195 00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:30,800 Speaker 4: are gonna because coaches are they you know the media. 196 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:32,280 Speaker 4: First of all, they kind of know that there is 197 00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:34,640 Speaker 4: this this niche crowd now that bets on the preseason 198 00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:36,720 Speaker 4: that plays bad best. So they are they're starting to 199 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:39,080 Speaker 4: ask the right questions and ask about playing time and 200 00:08:39,240 --> 00:08:40,680 Speaker 4: you know, how long are we going to expect the 201 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:43,040 Speaker 4: starters to go? And you know who's gonna be playing 202 00:08:43,040 --> 00:08:45,160 Speaker 4: in the fourth quarter? And so you know, because it's 203 00:08:45,160 --> 00:08:47,679 Speaker 4: preseason and it's pretty low stakes, the coaches generally a 204 00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:50,839 Speaker 4: little bit more forthcoming about this kind of information. You 205 00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:52,880 Speaker 4: just it's just a little more obscure information that you 206 00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:55,200 Speaker 4: have to sometimes dig for, like you're not just gonna 207 00:08:55,200 --> 00:08:57,679 Speaker 4: see it like on the front page of NFL dot 208 00:08:57,679 --> 00:08:59,839 Speaker 4: com or or an Action network dot com. So I 209 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:02,200 Speaker 4: think you know that's really the key. It's every coach 210 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:04,520 Speaker 4: is going to treat it different. Some coaches like Sean McVay, 211 00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:06,640 Speaker 4: he may not play a start as a snapball preseason. 212 00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:10,240 Speaker 4: You know, some coaches, especially you know, newer coaches, maybe 213 00:09:10,240 --> 00:09:13,480 Speaker 4: coaches with younger teams, They want to see those guys 214 00:09:13,520 --> 00:09:14,959 Speaker 4: and so they are going to treat it like a 215 00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:17,040 Speaker 4: true dress rehearsal. And even then it's like the dress 216 00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:19,559 Speaker 4: rehearsal used to be, you go into the third quarter 217 00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:21,439 Speaker 4: some now a lot of times. 218 00:09:21,160 --> 00:09:22,200 Speaker 1: You're playing to the half. 219 00:09:22,280 --> 00:09:25,240 Speaker 4: So you really have to know that, especially with the quarterbacks, 220 00:09:25,240 --> 00:09:28,400 Speaker 4: because quarterbacks passing such a big component of how a 221 00:09:28,440 --> 00:09:32,199 Speaker 4: game unfolds that you kind of really, if anything, you 222 00:09:32,240 --> 00:09:34,760 Speaker 4: want to nail down at quarterback rotation first and foremost. 223 00:09:34,760 --> 00:09:36,880 Speaker 4: And I think you get that information from following the 224 00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:38,679 Speaker 4: practice supports and a beat reporters. 225 00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:39,520 Speaker 3: Yeah. Absolutely. 226 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:41,680 Speaker 2: I mean when we're talking about the third and fourth 227 00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:45,439 Speaker 2: string safety who may get a swing tackle job when 228 00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:48,400 Speaker 2: they're going up against an actual number one edge rusher, 229 00:09:48,679 --> 00:09:51,320 Speaker 2: these are the mismatches that you may want to exploit, 230 00:09:51,320 --> 00:09:55,160 Speaker 2: whether it be in DFS or betting the NFL preseason. 231 00:09:55,160 --> 00:09:56,640 Speaker 3: That's why we're giving it to you here right now. 232 00:09:56,679 --> 00:10:00,360 Speaker 2: The Gambler's Guide to betting the NFL preseason and Dane 233 00:10:00,400 --> 00:10:02,800 Speaker 2: Martin as Chris Raybond and of course Sean Kerner. 234 00:10:02,840 --> 00:10:03,959 Speaker 3: Now you're talking about these. 235 00:10:03,840 --> 00:10:07,520 Speaker 2: Different sources of information, not even on actionnetwork dot com. 236 00:10:07,520 --> 00:10:10,000 Speaker 3: So I gotta ask you, guys, where are. 237 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:10,720 Speaker 1: You finding this? 238 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:11,079 Speaker 3: Sean? 239 00:10:11,080 --> 00:10:13,680 Speaker 2: I want to start with you, like, what teams have 240 00:10:13,800 --> 00:10:16,439 Speaker 2: you found or beat reporters that you have found where 241 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:19,480 Speaker 2: you may be able to get this kind of information, 242 00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:23,280 Speaker 2: Like who should I be tailing from? What random beat 243 00:10:23,280 --> 00:10:25,559 Speaker 2: writer on, say the Panthers or some other team that 244 00:10:25,559 --> 00:10:26,520 Speaker 2: I don't even really follow. 245 00:10:27,160 --> 00:10:30,600 Speaker 5: Yeah, it's a case by case basis. I recommend having 246 00:10:30,640 --> 00:10:33,520 Speaker 5: Twitter lists. I follow a few Twitter lists. I believe 247 00:10:33,559 --> 00:10:36,280 Speaker 5: I have my own too, But you just want the 248 00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:38,320 Speaker 5: most up to date beat reporters for every team. The 249 00:10:38,360 --> 00:10:41,200 Speaker 5: athletic does a great job of breaking down, you know, 250 00:10:41,320 --> 00:10:43,560 Speaker 5: every day there's practice and they kind of report on 251 00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:46,120 Speaker 5: you know what, like Rayba mentioned, you know what they're 252 00:10:46,120 --> 00:10:48,400 Speaker 5: going to try to accomplish in their upcoming preseason game. 253 00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:50,360 Speaker 5: So you get a bunch of clues from that. But 254 00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:53,320 Speaker 5: I'm tracking everything on a team by a team basis. 255 00:10:53,360 --> 00:10:56,040 Speaker 5: I mean I already told you I'm making projections, so 256 00:10:56,080 --> 00:10:59,080 Speaker 5: I have notes on everybody. I'm tracking all this stuff, 257 00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:02,400 Speaker 5: But the easiest way really is Twitter, specifically making a 258 00:11:02,480 --> 00:11:05,800 Speaker 5: list for preseason, just because there is so much you 259 00:11:05,840 --> 00:11:08,640 Speaker 5: have to sift through. There's a ton, so just you know, 260 00:11:08,760 --> 00:11:11,240 Speaker 5: having an up to date, fresh Twitter list is the 261 00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:13,079 Speaker 5: best way to go Sam for. 262 00:11:13,000 --> 00:11:15,120 Speaker 2: You, Chris, you just, you know, kind of making a 263 00:11:15,160 --> 00:11:18,000 Speaker 2: list following beat reporters, getting as much information as you 264 00:11:18,080 --> 00:11:21,040 Speaker 2: can from the people that are closest to the practices themselves. 265 00:11:21,800 --> 00:11:24,199 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think, you know. I do Twitter with where 266 00:11:24,240 --> 00:11:26,080 Speaker 4: I add any beat reporter of a team that I 267 00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:28,160 Speaker 4: come across, I pretty much add like and not even 268 00:11:28,200 --> 00:11:30,200 Speaker 4: based on you know, I mean, I don't really know 269 00:11:30,240 --> 00:11:32,359 Speaker 4: any poor quality beat repritors. 270 00:11:32,040 --> 00:11:33,120 Speaker 1: Or at least off the top of my head. 271 00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:34,800 Speaker 4: So it's like I'm not looking like, oh well, I 272 00:11:34,840 --> 00:11:36,720 Speaker 4: only want this Saints guy and not that other Saints guy. 273 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:39,880 Speaker 4: Anyone that I know or come across, I'm adding them, 274 00:11:39,880 --> 00:11:42,720 Speaker 4: I'm following them, I'm throwing them in a list. And then, 275 00:11:42,960 --> 00:11:45,280 Speaker 4: as Sew mentioned the Athletic that's I love. I love 276 00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:47,720 Speaker 4: what they do there. They go really in depth with 277 00:11:47,760 --> 00:11:50,600 Speaker 4: their articles, so like they'll give you stats sometimes of 278 00:11:50,640 --> 00:11:53,880 Speaker 4: like what the quarterbacks are doing in the in each practice, 279 00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:56,520 Speaker 4: and then they'll they'll tell you kind of like, you know, 280 00:11:56,679 --> 00:11:58,679 Speaker 4: who's standing out, who's not, with the coaches just saying 281 00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:00,880 Speaker 4: so I think they do a great job. Yes, NFL Nation, 282 00:12:00,960 --> 00:12:04,040 Speaker 4: they usually have a beat writer assigned to every team 283 00:12:04,080 --> 00:12:06,040 Speaker 4: and they're talking about what's happening in camp. 284 00:12:06,120 --> 00:12:08,280 Speaker 1: So I follow, you know, I've read that as well. 285 00:12:08,679 --> 00:12:10,560 Speaker 4: I think Reddit sometimes can be a good source of 286 00:12:10,600 --> 00:12:13,640 Speaker 4: information for thinks, you know, some depending on you know, 287 00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:17,040 Speaker 4: if it's not like a mainstream necessarily like an Athletic 288 00:12:17,120 --> 00:12:19,440 Speaker 4: or ESPN, but some other beat writer has something good 289 00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:21,640 Speaker 4: that will pop up on Reddit a lot of the time. 290 00:12:21,960 --> 00:12:24,679 Speaker 4: So those are my three big ones. But yeah, I'm 291 00:12:24,679 --> 00:12:27,200 Speaker 4: like reading it's it's more than just Twitter. It's like 292 00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:29,440 Speaker 4: reading tweets is one thing, but like I like I 293 00:12:29,559 --> 00:12:31,679 Speaker 4: like something like the Athletic or ESPN because I can 294 00:12:31,720 --> 00:12:35,000 Speaker 4: read whole articles and really kind of get into it, 295 00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:36,679 Speaker 4: you know, tweets you're kind of at the mercy of 296 00:12:36,679 --> 00:12:39,840 Speaker 4: who's tweeting what when, so why I do look at 297 00:12:39,840 --> 00:12:41,120 Speaker 4: that and that's easy way to kind of have it 298 00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:43,160 Speaker 4: at a bird's eye view. I really like to dig 299 00:12:43,200 --> 00:12:45,360 Speaker 4: in and weave enough time every day to kind of 300 00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:48,720 Speaker 4: keep up with the articles for for for all thirty 301 00:12:48,720 --> 00:12:50,640 Speaker 4: two teams and spend some time on that. So you 302 00:12:50,679 --> 00:12:52,360 Speaker 4: spend an hour on that every day, and that kind 303 00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:54,960 Speaker 4: of adds up, and you know, to Shawn's point, you know, 304 00:12:55,400 --> 00:12:58,720 Speaker 4: kind of knowing all the players, you know, looking depth charts. 305 00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:01,880 Speaker 4: Depth charts are another key information actually mention too, because 306 00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:04,600 Speaker 4: again you're not gonna see much from the first s ringer, 307 00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:07,040 Speaker 4: so you know, certain teams are gonna be a lot 308 00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:09,160 Speaker 4: deeper than others. And if you have a good second team, 309 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:11,800 Speaker 4: a good third team, that's a lot more important. And 310 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:14,200 Speaker 4: so just kind of knowing those depth charts and who's 311 00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:15,120 Speaker 4: gonna who's even on. 312 00:13:15,120 --> 00:13:17,040 Speaker 1: Those teams is pretty important as well. 313 00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:19,600 Speaker 2: All right, so let's spin it forward, guys. You know, 314 00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:23,520 Speaker 2: we've got football this week, or maybe we can call 315 00:13:23,559 --> 00:13:26,840 Speaker 2: it football. We'll see about that. We've got the Jaguars. 316 00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:29,640 Speaker 2: They're one and a half point favorites against the Vegas Raiders. 317 00:13:29,640 --> 00:13:32,800 Speaker 2: The total for this game at this point is thirty 318 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:35,800 Speaker 2: two and a half. That is down a point from 319 00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:38,960 Speaker 2: thirty three and a half. Ironically, that total going through 320 00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:41,720 Speaker 2: the number of thirty three. I mean, is there anything 321 00:13:41,720 --> 00:13:46,000 Speaker 2: we're looking for in this game. My kind of conventional 322 00:13:46,040 --> 00:13:48,840 Speaker 2: wisdom is to kind of lean under. You know, these 323 00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:52,360 Speaker 2: guys have only had maybe a week of practice so far. 324 00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:54,000 Speaker 3: I don't know if the timing is right. 325 00:13:54,120 --> 00:13:56,200 Speaker 2: I don't know if they're doing anything that is, you know, 326 00:13:56,559 --> 00:13:59,520 Speaker 2: more impressive than their base vanilla defense. We're not gonna 327 00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:02,559 Speaker 2: see any double A gap blitzes right now, you know 328 00:14:02,600 --> 00:14:05,040 Speaker 2: what I mean. So what are you thinking about as 329 00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:08,040 Speaker 2: we actually put the ball in the air in Canton, 330 00:14:08,080 --> 00:14:08,760 Speaker 2: Ohio this week? 331 00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:09,840 Speaker 3: Sean, I'll start with you. 332 00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:14,079 Speaker 5: Well, you know this game. I'm gonna wait for information, 333 00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:17,840 Speaker 5: but I'm assuming the Raiders won't be playing Derek Carr, 334 00:14:17,960 --> 00:14:20,880 Speaker 5: Josh Jacobs, DeVante Adams. They're too established. We already know 335 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:23,120 Speaker 5: what they are at this point in their career. Whereas 336 00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:25,720 Speaker 5: the Jaguars, they probably do want to get Trevor Warrence 337 00:14:25,760 --> 00:14:28,800 Speaker 5: some reps here. Trevior's atn possibly if he's healthy enough 338 00:14:28,800 --> 00:14:31,040 Speaker 5: to suit up Christian Kirk, I mean, the brand new, 339 00:14:32,080 --> 00:14:34,400 Speaker 5: expensive wide receiver. They're going to want to get him reps. 340 00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:36,600 Speaker 1: So if we have the Jaguars first. 341 00:14:36,480 --> 00:14:39,880 Speaker 5: String offense going up against backups, I would be interested 342 00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:43,240 Speaker 5: in taking the Jaguars and say the first quarter, first half, 343 00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:46,960 Speaker 5: depending on the discrepancy. But that's something that i'll wait 344 00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:50,560 Speaker 5: once we have a better idea. I'll wait on that, 345 00:14:50,640 --> 00:14:52,720 Speaker 5: and then, like you said, the under for the Hall 346 00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:55,080 Speaker 5: of Fame game, it's always pretty low scoring because you're 347 00:14:55,080 --> 00:14:57,920 Speaker 5: going to see more backups. But I mean the total 348 00:14:57,920 --> 00:14:59,720 Speaker 5: reflects that. I think it's down to like thirty two 349 00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 5: and a half for something. I do like to take 350 00:15:01,920 --> 00:15:04,960 Speaker 5: my spots with the total in game. Typically when they 351 00:15:05,000 --> 00:15:08,640 Speaker 5: pull the starters. Good examples last year on Raybaun and 352 00:15:08,640 --> 00:15:11,400 Speaker 5: I were at the forty nine Ers versus the Chargers. 353 00:15:12,240 --> 00:15:14,400 Speaker 5: I said, once they pull Trey Lance, it's gonna be 354 00:15:14,480 --> 00:15:17,880 Speaker 5: Nate Sudfell versus Easton Stick. I want, I'm all over 355 00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:20,720 Speaker 5: the under. And we saw Nate Sudfeld warm me up 356 00:15:20,720 --> 00:15:23,000 Speaker 5: on the sideline, so I figured that this is Trey 357 00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:26,640 Speaker 5: Lance last drive. So I, you know, hammered the under 358 00:15:26,800 --> 00:15:29,280 Speaker 5: in game. We were there in person and there was 359 00:15:29,480 --> 00:15:31,760 Speaker 5: zero points scored in the last like twenty minutes out 360 00:15:31,760 --> 00:15:33,880 Speaker 5: of the game. So there are spots where, yeah, you 361 00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:35,920 Speaker 5: want to take advantage of the under. But the Hall 362 00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:37,600 Speaker 5: of Fame game, we already know it's gonna be a 363 00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:39,720 Speaker 5: bunch of scrubs, so the total is already very low. 364 00:15:40,360 --> 00:15:41,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, and shake. 365 00:15:41,160 --> 00:15:44,240 Speaker 2: I will say this though, pick sixes and fumble scoop 366 00:15:44,280 --> 00:15:47,720 Speaker 2: and scores do count against the under when you go 367 00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:50,160 Speaker 2: with that strategy. So, like you said, show you got 368 00:15:50,240 --> 00:15:52,320 Speaker 2: to pick your spots. Hey, Chris, what about you? What 369 00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:54,040 Speaker 2: do you think of this Hall of Fame game? You know, 370 00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:56,720 Speaker 2: Sean mentioned the idea of Trevor Lawrence trying to get 371 00:15:56,760 --> 00:15:59,840 Speaker 2: those reps some of the new members or returning members 372 00:15:59,880 --> 00:16:00,520 Speaker 2: of the Jags. 373 00:16:00,520 --> 00:16:03,080 Speaker 3: But there's also there's also a new head coach. 374 00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:06,880 Speaker 2: There in Jacksonville, So could that be another reason to 375 00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:08,960 Speaker 2: try to get more reps against competition? 376 00:16:09,040 --> 00:16:10,040 Speaker 3: What do you say there, Chris? 377 00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:12,640 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean there's I mean really there's new coaches 378 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:15,640 Speaker 4: on both on both teams, so you know it's But 379 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:17,480 Speaker 4: I do think the Jaguars, like to your point, they're 380 00:16:17,520 --> 00:16:21,040 Speaker 4: they're a younger team, and I think that you will 381 00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:24,760 Speaker 4: see them play more of their prominent players longer than 382 00:16:24,800 --> 00:16:27,600 Speaker 4: the Raiders do, if the Raiders do at all. So 383 00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:30,920 Speaker 4: I do lean the Jaguars in this spot. And you know, 384 00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:33,800 Speaker 4: you know, looking at I mean Doug Peterson, you can't 385 00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:35,760 Speaker 4: really glean much from their their records. You know, he's 386 00:16:35,800 --> 00:16:38,320 Speaker 4: eight and eight in the preseason against the spread. McDaniels 387 00:16:38,360 --> 00:16:40,360 Speaker 4: is three and five. I think McDaniel's coming from that 388 00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:44,680 Speaker 4: New England, you know, you know frame of mind. I 389 00:16:44,680 --> 00:16:47,520 Speaker 4: don't think he's gonna I think he's gonna be more 390 00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:49,760 Speaker 4: looking at specific things, and I think he's gonna be 391 00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:52,600 Speaker 4: playing guys who you know. I just don't think the 392 00:16:52,680 --> 00:16:54,400 Speaker 4: Raiders are gonna go as hard as what I'm trying 393 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:58,120 Speaker 4: to say. So, but I will say this, here's the 394 00:16:58,320 --> 00:16:59,920 Speaker 4: here's the ready to edge here, because again, you got 395 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:04,320 Speaker 4: kind of know it comes down to specific quarterbacks always 396 00:17:04,359 --> 00:17:06,439 Speaker 4: going to play a big part here. And this is 397 00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:09,640 Speaker 4: a game where we might see the four string quarterbacks 398 00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:15,040 Speaker 4: for these teams, you know, and the Jaguars they just signed, uh, 399 00:17:16,040 --> 00:17:20,560 Speaker 4: Kyle Slaughter. And if you follow the NFL preseason, you 400 00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:24,679 Speaker 4: know that Kyle Slaughter is like the goat of NFL preseason. 401 00:17:24,920 --> 00:17:27,080 Speaker 4: He averages eight point one yards per attempt in his 402 00:17:27,200 --> 00:17:31,320 Speaker 4: preseason career, eleven touchdowns, one pick. And you know, if 403 00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:34,080 Speaker 4: the if the Raiders played their four string, it would 404 00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:37,040 Speaker 4: be Chase Garber's, you know, a twenty two twenty twenty 405 00:17:37,080 --> 00:17:39,359 Speaker 4: two undrafted free agent at a cow, so I think 406 00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:41,680 Speaker 4: that I think the Jags have an edge there even. 407 00:17:41,560 --> 00:17:44,720 Speaker 1: Down to the four strings. So I like the Jacks 408 00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:45,560 Speaker 1: for all those reasons. 409 00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:49,120 Speaker 4: And then as far as the total, uh, this there's 410 00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:54,400 Speaker 4: actually this game fits a trend. So when we see 411 00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:56,240 Speaker 4: the total drop and it opened at thirty three and 412 00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:57,920 Speaker 4: a half, it's dropped all the way to thirty and 413 00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:00,479 Speaker 4: a half, and I think that's because you are going 414 00:18:00,520 --> 00:18:03,240 Speaker 4: to see a lot of you know, third and four stringers. 415 00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:04,440 Speaker 1: It's in the Hall of Fame game. 416 00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:06,600 Speaker 4: It's the only game where, you know, the only teams 417 00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:10,359 Speaker 4: that have four preseason games. So I think that in 418 00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:13,119 Speaker 4: this spot, the Unders the play. If we go back, 419 00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:15,720 Speaker 4: we've seen Unders that drop by two or more points 420 00:18:15,760 --> 00:18:19,160 Speaker 4: in the preseason since two thousand and four go fifty nine, 421 00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:22,399 Speaker 4: forty four and three. That is a fifty seven percent 422 00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:25,560 Speaker 4: hit rate. And again, this Hall of Fame game does 423 00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:26,360 Speaker 4: fit that trend. 424 00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:28,399 Speaker 2: All right, fair enough, Now let me get you out 425 00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:30,600 Speaker 2: of here, guys on this. Here's one or two things 426 00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:34,440 Speaker 2: I'm looking at for the twenty twenty two NFL preseason. 427 00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:36,280 Speaker 2: We want you other guys to react to them, and 428 00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:38,520 Speaker 2: then tell me if there's any other kind of Leans, 429 00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:41,320 Speaker 2: any other nuggets that we should be aware of as 430 00:18:41,359 --> 00:18:45,239 Speaker 2: this preseason commences here in August. The first, for me, 431 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:50,080 Speaker 2: I always like to fade whatever team is on hard knocks. Okay, 432 00:18:50,320 --> 00:18:54,359 Speaker 2: you talk about like the information, the access, Well, the 433 00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:57,800 Speaker 2: entire public is getting all sorts of access into the 434 00:18:57,840 --> 00:19:00,800 Speaker 2: biting kneecaps that are gonna be going on into Detroit 435 00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:04,919 Speaker 2: and start to then get invested in those very second, third, 436 00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:08,280 Speaker 2: fourth stringers that are gonna be playing their hind parts 437 00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:11,600 Speaker 2: off in the second half of a third preseason game. 438 00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:13,560 Speaker 2: But just because we have that kind of you know, 439 00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:16,959 Speaker 2: soundtrack behind it doesn't mean they're actually any better. So 440 00:19:17,040 --> 00:19:19,280 Speaker 2: I like to fade the team that the public has 441 00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:20,600 Speaker 2: incredible access to. 442 00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:23,280 Speaker 3: And then I also think about some of the. 443 00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:28,800 Speaker 2: Teams that will have players under suspension. Okay, whether that's 444 00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:31,760 Speaker 2: the New Orleans Saints potentially with Alvin Klamara, whether that's 445 00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:34,920 Speaker 2: the Cleveland Browns. We know Deshaun Watson now has six games. 446 00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:37,879 Speaker 2: May that may change a little bit, and we're gonna 447 00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:40,960 Speaker 2: get them playing in preseason, but the teams are going 448 00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:45,280 Speaker 2: to manage their reps slightly differently. Do you consider any 449 00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:47,400 Speaker 2: of those things, and Chris, do you have any other 450 00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:50,080 Speaker 2: kind of leans or things we should be looking for 451 00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:52,239 Speaker 2: if it's not the things my knee jerk reactions are. 452 00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:55,000 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I think that's interesting talking about fading 453 00:19:55,000 --> 00:19:57,000 Speaker 4: the team on hard knocks. I don't have the data 454 00:19:57,040 --> 00:19:58,800 Speaker 4: on like I would actually liked it to look at that, 455 00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:01,720 Speaker 4: like the the ATM records of those teams, because I 456 00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:03,639 Speaker 4: think I think that could be an angle I just 457 00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:05,159 Speaker 4: can't speak on, like I don't have the data to 458 00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:08,600 Speaker 4: speak on it, but I will say in general, like 459 00:20:09,160 --> 00:20:11,520 Speaker 4: I think, you know, we mentioned that a lot of 460 00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:14,040 Speaker 4: the information you're getting it's kind of obscure, and it's like, 461 00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:18,720 Speaker 4: I think if align like the thing you have to 462 00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:21,359 Speaker 4: remember is like no one knows that much and even us, like, 463 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:23,240 Speaker 4: there's still going to be such a lot of volatility 464 00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:25,800 Speaker 4: and a lot of variants in in our projections for 465 00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:27,520 Speaker 4: the preseasts. I mean, the scores are lower, you know, 466 00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:30,359 Speaker 4: the average total isn't like the low thirties. Most of 467 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:32,320 Speaker 4: the spreads are not going to be higher than you know, 468 00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:34,320 Speaker 4: you know, they're probably not going to go higher than 469 00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:35,879 Speaker 4: a touchdown, and most of them are going to be 470 00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:38,199 Speaker 4: you know, in that field goal range or lower, So 471 00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:41,120 Speaker 4: you know, it's it's a lot of I think there's 472 00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:43,920 Speaker 4: always going to be value on kind of fading the public, 473 00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:45,760 Speaker 4: and you know, you have that information in the action 474 00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:47,760 Speaker 4: that we're at. You know where the money is going 475 00:20:47,800 --> 00:20:49,280 Speaker 4: for the for the total, and for the spread. So 476 00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:51,760 Speaker 4: I think looking at that and kind of being contrarian there. 477 00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:55,560 Speaker 4: But there's also like there's an interesting one that I've 478 00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:59,440 Speaker 4: found is like when you get big underdogs five and 479 00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:02,000 Speaker 4: a half point and more in the preseason, they've been 480 00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:04,840 Speaker 4: very profitable. And it's especially true when these are like 481 00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:07,440 Speaker 4: non conference matchups because there's really. 482 00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:08,680 Speaker 1: Like no familiarity there. 483 00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:11,080 Speaker 4: These teams are probably just you know, they're they're kind 484 00:21:11,119 --> 00:21:15,120 Speaker 4: of like they're they're not playing to beat each other 485 00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:16,959 Speaker 4: as much as they're trying to get looks at different things. 486 00:21:16,960 --> 00:21:18,800 Speaker 1: They probably have joint practices, right. 487 00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:22,080 Speaker 4: So we've seen that since oh four these it doesn't 488 00:21:22,080 --> 00:21:25,080 Speaker 4: happen too often. But when you have like the underdog 489 00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:27,680 Speaker 4: by five and a half points some more in non 490 00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:31,800 Speaker 4: conference preseason play forty six and thirty sixty one percent, 491 00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:35,160 Speaker 4: so still a decent sample seventy six games, it doesn't 492 00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:37,760 Speaker 4: happen too often, but there's always a few spots each 493 00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:40,960 Speaker 4: preseason when you can kind of go and bet on that. 494 00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:43,439 Speaker 4: So like that one, like when the totals drop, and 495 00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:46,160 Speaker 4: again always always banging the Baltimore Ravens. 496 00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:48,240 Speaker 1: That that's always what I'm doing in the preseason. 497 00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:50,080 Speaker 3: Fair enough, Sean, What about you? 498 00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:52,480 Speaker 2: Any kind of trends or nuggets that we should be 499 00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:54,800 Speaker 2: following when it comes to the preseason? 500 00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:55,479 Speaker 3: Am I crazy? 501 00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:58,480 Speaker 2: Maybe backing the Browns because Jacoby Brissett may actually get 502 00:21:58,520 --> 00:21:59,160 Speaker 2: some reps. 503 00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:02,600 Speaker 5: Yeah, No, I like your hard knocks take similar rabot. 504 00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:04,840 Speaker 5: I'll have to look into that, but certainly, whenever you 505 00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:06,960 Speaker 5: have a situation like that, the public might. 506 00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:11,080 Speaker 1: And it might inflate the number. 507 00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:12,760 Speaker 5: Again, I'm only going to take a number if I 508 00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:16,480 Speaker 5: agree with the play, the playing time and things like that. 509 00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:19,359 Speaker 5: But I do like that angle. Same thing with you know, 510 00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:22,639 Speaker 5: suspended players. DeAndre Hopkins probably wouldn't play much in the 511 00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:25,399 Speaker 5: preseason otherwise, but with this season, you know he's going 512 00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:27,560 Speaker 5: to be out the first six games, maybe they get 513 00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:29,359 Speaker 5: him more running. Again, I'm gonna treat that on a 514 00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:31,000 Speaker 5: case by case basis, so I'll just give a. 515 00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:31,880 Speaker 1: High level nugget. 516 00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:35,320 Speaker 5: Again, this is more for in game betting, and I 517 00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:37,840 Speaker 5: know we talked about on our last pod about how 518 00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:40,119 Speaker 5: we like to bet in game based on, you know, 519 00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:42,080 Speaker 5: the game flow. If a team's trailing by the time, 520 00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:44,640 Speaker 5: they're gonna throw more things like that, throw that out 521 00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:47,800 Speaker 5: the window, pseason because they don't care. They don't really 522 00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:50,159 Speaker 5: care about winning or losing. So if a team's up 523 00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:52,560 Speaker 5: by two touchdowns doesn't mean they're going to run the 524 00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:55,280 Speaker 5: ball as much. You know, it's gonna be pretty straight up. 525 00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:58,040 Speaker 5: So just keeping that in mind as well. But again, 526 00:22:58,080 --> 00:23:00,280 Speaker 5: when it comes to game flow and like when players 527 00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:02,240 Speaker 5: are going to be in or out, it changes on 528 00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:05,200 Speaker 5: you know, every game, semmetry, every game completely different. 529 00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:07,639 Speaker 2: No thanks a lot of guys, and you know, I 530 00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:10,600 Speaker 2: think the main point here is what we are trying 531 00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:14,639 Speaker 2: to ascertain. The information we're trying to get here is 532 00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:19,120 Speaker 2: what is the true objective of those teams. That's why 533 00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:22,080 Speaker 2: you can throw game flow out the window. When these 534 00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:25,560 Speaker 2: guys need to make decisions on getting to fifty three 535 00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:27,640 Speaker 2: and they don't really care if they win the game 536 00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:30,159 Speaker 2: by four and a half points, well that about doing 537 00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:32,720 Speaker 2: for us. This has been another edition of the Gamblers 538 00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:36,240 Speaker 2: Guide here on the Action Network. I'm Dan Martinez, the 539 00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:39,840 Speaker 2: spent and statistician for my guys, Chris Raybond and Sean Kerner. 540 00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:44,320 Speaker 2: Of course, make sure you know subscribe to the YouTube 541 00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:48,640 Speaker 2: of Action Network. Download the Action Network app, unless, of course, 542 00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:51,960 Speaker 2: you are allergic to money. We'll see you next time, guys, 543 00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:03,600 Speaker 2: students unadd