1
00:00:00,960 --> 00:00:03,160
Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place

2
00:00:03,200 --> 00:00:03,680
Speaker 1: your bets.

3
00:00:03,720 --> 00:00:03,760
Speaker 2: It.

4
00:00:03,760 --> 00:00:05,720
Speaker 1: It's me Joey Pa, joe Piece of PA, and today

5
00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:08,160
Speaker 1: we're going to talk about major League Baseball betting. That's

6
00:00:08,240 --> 00:00:10,840
Speaker 1: right for a sport that goes on longer than any other,

7
00:00:10,960 --> 00:00:13,399
Speaker 1: that's got twice as many games as any other, A

8
00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:15,120
Speaker 1: lot of people still don't like to wager.

9
00:00:14,840 --> 00:00:15,760
Speaker 2: On Major League Baseball.

10
00:00:15,800 --> 00:00:19,240
Speaker 1: Why I don't know, Probably because it's a little overwhelming

11
00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:21,200
Speaker 1: and there's so many things. But we're gonna help you

12
00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:23,520
Speaker 1: find that focus when it comes to baseball betting. And

13
00:00:23,560 --> 00:00:26,000
Speaker 1: to help me do that, of course, is my cos

14
00:00:26,040 --> 00:00:29,360
Speaker 1: from Leading Off Live and the Fantasy Pros MLB Show,

15
00:00:29,840 --> 00:00:31,800
Speaker 1: The Welsh, So Chris Welsh is going to join us

16
00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:35,000
Speaker 1: here chat a little bit about MLB betting, And obviously,

17
00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:36,800
Speaker 1: if you haven't already made sure you subscribe to our

18
00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:38,839
Speaker 1: YouTube channel and click that belt till it goes ding

19
00:00:38,880 --> 00:00:40,920
Speaker 1: for notifications, so you know every time a piece of

20
00:00:40,920 --> 00:00:42,840
Speaker 1: content drops here on the BP side.

21
00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:45,720
Speaker 2: We just wrapped up the derby that was very successful.

22
00:00:45,800 --> 00:00:48,000
Speaker 1: Now we're onto baseball because well, there's so much of

23
00:00:48,040 --> 00:00:50,440
Speaker 1: it and I think that's the problem. People see it

24
00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:54,360
Speaker 1: they get overwhelmed, but we every single day find the

25
00:00:54,400 --> 00:00:56,800
Speaker 1: focus things that we like and we have been consistently

26
00:00:56,840 --> 00:00:59,080
Speaker 1: making money. We have our Betting Pros group there and

27
00:00:59,160 --> 00:01:01,720
Speaker 1: leading Off too, which you can join Bettingpros dot Com

28
00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:04,320
Speaker 1: slash leading Off, download the app, join us. We're at

29
00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:07,640
Speaker 1: one hundred members already in just a few weeks and

30
00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:10,280
Speaker 1: it's a great way to track your bets. And somebody here,

31
00:01:10,400 --> 00:01:13,119
Speaker 1: the Welsh is at the top of the leaderboard right now,

32
00:01:13,160 --> 00:01:15,399
Speaker 1: so let's talk about why that is and how we

33
00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:16,640
Speaker 1: can bet baseball better.

34
00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:18,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, you said it a little bit earlier.

35
00:01:18,440 --> 00:01:21,240
Speaker 4: Like the main thing here for me has been focused

36
00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:23,880
Speaker 4: because when I likened it. You know, the last couple

37
00:01:23,880 --> 00:01:26,920
Speaker 4: of years, I've been really diving into betting, and I

38
00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:29,360
Speaker 4: started with football as it became legal out here in Arizona,

39
00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:32,440
Speaker 4: and football has this really just magical thing to it

40
00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:34,400
Speaker 4: where it's like you have this entire week where you're

41
00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:36,880
Speaker 4: doing research and everyone's talking about it and there's just

42
00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:38,840
Speaker 4: all we're all building up to the same thing where

43
00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:41,000
Speaker 4: we can make the bet. Baseball does not have that.

44
00:01:41,080 --> 00:01:44,080
Speaker 4: It's every single day, so it gets overwhelming and there

45
00:01:44,120 --> 00:01:47,000
Speaker 4: are so many things to bet, So what's been important

46
00:01:47,000 --> 00:01:49,720
Speaker 4: for me is it's really been experience, and it's been

47
00:01:49,760 --> 00:01:51,720
Speaker 4: finding out and focusing on.

48
00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:54,720
Speaker 3: What do I do well because you could think you

49
00:01:54,760 --> 00:01:55,400
Speaker 3: could do so, but.

50
00:01:55,400 --> 00:01:59,440
Speaker 4: There's so much strikeouts, total bases, hits, runs, how many

51
00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:01,760
Speaker 4: outs did guy get? Did he score in the first inning?

52
00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:06,400
Speaker 4: There are some novelty bets, there's some you know, normalized

53
00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:09,000
Speaker 4: side bet type of stuff, and there's crazy props.

54
00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:09,440
Speaker 3: You got to.

55
00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:12,360
Speaker 4: Figure out what is it that you can research and

56
00:02:12,440 --> 00:02:15,880
Speaker 4: properly attack. And that's what's made baseball betting so much

57
00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:19,160
Speaker 4: more enjoyable for me because that rush that you get

58
00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:22,360
Speaker 4: leading up until Sunday for your football betting, whether it

59
00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:25,440
Speaker 4: is for you know, lines or props, you can now

60
00:02:25,520 --> 00:02:27,600
Speaker 4: kind of take that into baseball because you can say, hey,

61
00:02:27,680 --> 00:02:31,679
Speaker 4: I'm good with strikeout props and I'm good with overs,

62
00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:33,720
Speaker 4: and those are your two things that you are going

63
00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:37,119
Speaker 4: to solely focus on every single day, and you'll pick

64
00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:39,560
Speaker 4: and choose a couple of those and you can cash.

65
00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:41,680
Speaker 4: And I've had some decent success at it so far

66
00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:43,440
Speaker 4: this year, Like you said, I've been at the top

67
00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:47,040
Speaker 4: on money percentage, winning percentage in ROI. But it's because

68
00:02:47,160 --> 00:02:49,800
Speaker 4: I'm not just Willy nilly throwing out every single one

69
00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:52,320
Speaker 4: of those. And we happen to be talking about a

70
00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:54,760
Speaker 4: couple of the things that I do focus on in

71
00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:55,640
Speaker 4: this episode today.

72
00:02:55,880 --> 00:02:58,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're gonna focus on no run first inning, Yes

73
00:02:58,080 --> 00:03:00,280
Speaker 1: run first inning, talk about ladder betting those of you

74
00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:03,160
Speaker 1: who don't know what that even is, and also futures betting,

75
00:03:03,160 --> 00:03:05,560
Speaker 1: which is something I've been crushing here on our MLB

76
00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:08,160
Speaker 1: channel the last two seasons, making a lot of people,

77
00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:10,200
Speaker 1: including myself, a lot of money on and we want

78
00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:12,120
Speaker 1: you to be able to do it successfully as well.

79
00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:14,760
Speaker 1: And well, you know, for me, baseball is difficult because

80
00:03:14,800 --> 00:03:17,560
Speaker 1: it's such a heavy failure rate sport. You know, when

81
00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:19,919
Speaker 1: you fail seventy percent of the time on the hitting side,

82
00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:23,480
Speaker 1: and that's the best players, it's really difficult. So that's

83
00:03:23,520 --> 00:03:25,679
Speaker 1: why I tend to look for the pitchers. I'm looking

84
00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:28,560
Speaker 1: at the pitching market every night. I'm looking at strikeout totals,

85
00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:33,240
Speaker 1: I'm looking at home heavy favorites, and then pairing a

86
00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:36,480
Speaker 1: couple of them together because when you do that, most

87
00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:38,120
Speaker 1: of the time, you're going to be right over the

88
00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:40,840
Speaker 1: long season. And we've been doing that consistently on our

89
00:03:40,840 --> 00:03:43,720
Speaker 1: show this year. On the MLB channel again Fantasy Pros MLB.

90
00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:46,680
Speaker 1: You could subscribe there too, But every day we do

91
00:03:46,760 --> 00:03:48,880
Speaker 1: parlays of the day, we do prize picks, We do

92
00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:51,840
Speaker 1: a lot of different things there, and it's fun because

93
00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:56,760
Speaker 1: we've really done a good job of targeting specific underdogs

94
00:03:56,800 --> 00:03:59,760
Speaker 1: on specific days. But also it really seems to stem

95
00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:02,800
Speaker 1: from the pitching, which is our success. And again, guys

96
00:04:02,800 --> 00:04:05,080
Speaker 1: get hurt. Mob could be a frustrating game. But I

97
00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:06,960
Speaker 1: want to start here with no run first inning because

98
00:04:07,000 --> 00:04:09,680
Speaker 1: that is a very popular bet. And for those people

99
00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:11,760
Speaker 1: who don't know what we're talking about, it's very simple

100
00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:13,840
Speaker 1: whether or not you're going to bet if there's going

101
00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:15,880
Speaker 1: to be a run scored or not in the first

102
00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:18,520
Speaker 1: inning of a game. So, well, how do you approach

103
00:04:18,680 --> 00:04:19,680
Speaker 1: that in.

104
00:04:19,640 --> 00:04:21,360
Speaker 2: Terms of your wagering. Is this something you like to

105
00:04:21,400 --> 00:04:23,479
Speaker 2: do a lot? And when do you actually go for

106
00:04:23,600 --> 00:04:24,839
Speaker 2: the know or the yes side.

107
00:04:25,560 --> 00:04:26,760
Speaker 3: I don't do it a lot.

108
00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:30,040
Speaker 4: It is I will say this, it's more novelty than

109
00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:31,280
Speaker 4: it is anything else.

110
00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:35,720
Speaker 3: Because it's so arbitrary gratify.

111
00:04:35,760 --> 00:04:41,440
Speaker 4: No, it's quick gratification in betting because it is within

112
00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:44,360
Speaker 4: five minutes, ten minutes of a game, you can have

113
00:04:44,400 --> 00:04:46,880
Speaker 4: your outcome instead of waiting if you play an entire game.

114
00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:48,960
Speaker 4: That's what I think has made it so exciting. How

115
00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:51,320
Speaker 4: many outs are there? Six outs you got to get through,

116
00:04:51,360 --> 00:04:53,080
Speaker 4: So that's what you're betting on. You're betting on six

117
00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:56,039
Speaker 4: outs that you can get this cash. I actually think

118
00:04:56,080 --> 00:04:57,800
Speaker 4: no run first inning. As much as a lot of

119
00:04:57,839 --> 00:05:00,159
Speaker 4: people don't like it, I actually think it's good for

120
00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:04,760
Speaker 4: betting because you need more simplistic baseball bets for people

121
00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:07,159
Speaker 4: to have some fun with. I mean, we also want

122
00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:10,120
Speaker 4: to approach gambling is like fun and not just you know,

123
00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:12,280
Speaker 4: the craziness or the you know, the bad side or

124
00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:15,120
Speaker 4: anything like that, and no run first inning has that.

125
00:05:15,240 --> 00:05:16,640
Speaker 4: The problem is, and this is how.

126
00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:17,159
Speaker 3: I would approach.

127
00:05:17,200 --> 00:05:19,680
Speaker 4: I have bet it before, I've actually used it more

128
00:05:19,800 --> 00:05:21,600
Speaker 4: in our price picks. I think that's kind of a

129
00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:26,240
Speaker 4: better spot because no run first innings usually get juiced,

130
00:05:26,560 --> 00:05:30,120
Speaker 4: so doing an individualized no run first.

131
00:05:29,960 --> 00:05:32,160
Speaker 3: Inning it's kind of dicey. Like if you can get

132
00:05:32,200 --> 00:05:32,480
Speaker 3: like a.

133
00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:34,760
Speaker 4: Minus one thirty one thirty five or something like that,

134
00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:36,039
Speaker 4: I think you can play it. But a lot of

135
00:05:36,040 --> 00:05:39,040
Speaker 4: these will sit around one forty five minus one fifty.

136
00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:42,560
Speaker 4: So what ends up happening is you're tempted. You got

137
00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:44,960
Speaker 4: to parlay these, and I think you know, Vegas knows

138
00:05:45,000 --> 00:05:46,880
Speaker 4: that they want you, The books know that they want

139
00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:49,400
Speaker 4: you to parlay these. And again the cash is better.

140
00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:52,239
Speaker 4: The stakes are low as in how many at bats

141
00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:54,160
Speaker 4: they need to get through. So if I'm going to

142
00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:57,000
Speaker 4: approach it, I'd love to find one that is under

143
00:05:57,040 --> 00:05:59,479
Speaker 4: one thirty five, you know, one thirty something like that,

144
00:05:59,680 --> 00:06:02,080
Speaker 4: or if I did, I'd try to find a couple

145
00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:05,400
Speaker 4: of matchups that I really like. And you know, one

146
00:06:05,440 --> 00:06:07,360
Speaker 4: of the big pieces of research you can do simply

147
00:06:07,440 --> 00:06:10,760
Speaker 4: is a lot of sites now are tracking who's scoring

148
00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:13,719
Speaker 4: the most runs and how much opponents are scoring first

149
00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:15,560
Speaker 4: through the first five, and I take both of those.

150
00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:18,080
Speaker 4: That's part of my process when I go through or

151
00:06:18,080 --> 00:06:20,240
Speaker 4: in the first inning. I'm talking about first fives. You

152
00:06:20,279 --> 00:06:22,839
Speaker 4: can do actual first inning runs. And I'm looking up

153
00:06:22,920 --> 00:06:25,400
Speaker 4: right here, and let's say you were going to attack

154
00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:28,640
Speaker 4: a yes or no on the first inning. Well, Tampa

155
00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:31,920
Speaker 4: Bay right now is scoring the most runs in the

156
00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:35,400
Speaker 4: first inning in all of baseball. So where I am

157
00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:37,200
Speaker 4: eighty percent of the time going to take a no

158
00:06:37,320 --> 00:06:39,960
Speaker 4: run first inning before I do a yes run first inning.

159
00:06:40,279 --> 00:06:43,120
Speaker 4: If you had Let's say Tampa versus Atlanta, who were

160
00:06:43,200 --> 00:06:46,440
Speaker 4: number one and number two in first run scoring, that

161
00:06:46,520 --> 00:06:49,640
Speaker 4: might be a place where you play first run yes,

162
00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:53,039
Speaker 4: first run inning, or on the inverse of it, the

163
00:06:53,080 --> 00:06:56,239
Speaker 4: New York Mets and Baltimore Orioles they score the least

164
00:06:56,520 --> 00:06:58,240
Speaker 4: they point two, five and point three to one. As

165
00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:00,640
Speaker 4: we're recording this in the first inning, that might be

166
00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:02,960
Speaker 4: one that you want to jump on. No run first inning,

167
00:07:03,040 --> 00:07:05,000
Speaker 4: obviously pending who the pitchers are.

168
00:07:05,440 --> 00:07:07,560
Speaker 1: Well, that's the great thing about Major League baseball is

169
00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:10,920
Speaker 1: it's got more data that really tells you the truth

170
00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:13,559
Speaker 1: about these players and these teams than any other sport.

171
00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:15,600
Speaker 2: And yes, that can also be.

172
00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:17,920
Speaker 1: Overwhelming, But if you use it properly, like you're just

173
00:07:17,960 --> 00:07:20,880
Speaker 1: looking at those early trends here major League Baseball, you

174
00:07:20,880 --> 00:07:23,040
Speaker 1: could play the trends. You could also look at who

175
00:07:23,080 --> 00:07:25,160
Speaker 1: are these elite pitchers? Who are these guys. Let's say

176
00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:27,400
Speaker 1: that you know you're calling some kid up who's never

177
00:07:27,440 --> 00:07:30,200
Speaker 1: pitched in the big leagues for a spots start. That's

178
00:07:30,280 --> 00:07:32,920
Speaker 1: looking like probably something you want to hit. Yeah, it's

179
00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:34,760
Speaker 1: going to be a heavy minus number, but you can

180
00:07:34,840 --> 00:07:37,560
Speaker 1: pair that, as both said, with perhaps that same other

181
00:07:37,640 --> 00:07:39,760
Speaker 1: team to win on the money line, right, So there's

182
00:07:39,800 --> 00:07:42,200
Speaker 1: ways to make money using no run or yes run

183
00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:44,720
Speaker 1: first inning. And the nice thing about it, too, is

184
00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:47,320
Speaker 1: it's also easy to look at from a perspective of

185
00:07:47,400 --> 00:07:50,320
Speaker 1: batting average against certain pitchers. You know, certain pitchers who

186
00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:53,680
Speaker 1: struggle against certain teams, certain pitchers who struggle in certain environments.

187
00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:56,640
Speaker 1: Guys who are struggling at home were on the road.

188
00:07:57,320 --> 00:07:59,040
Speaker 1: That's how you can attack this. And the great thing

189
00:07:59,040 --> 00:08:01,400
Speaker 1: about baseball is you have so much data your fingertips

190
00:08:01,400 --> 00:08:02,960
Speaker 1: to tell you that, let's say there's a right end

191
00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:05,600
Speaker 1: of Pittrey struggle against lefties. It's facing three lefties right

192
00:08:05,600 --> 00:08:07,679
Speaker 1: out of the gate in a lineup where they're stacking

193
00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:09,880
Speaker 1: them up there. That's probably a spot where you want

194
00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:11,680
Speaker 1: to look for the yes run first inning because you

195
00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:14,000
Speaker 1: have a pretty good shot at it. So use the

196
00:08:14,120 --> 00:08:16,400
Speaker 1: data that's available, because the one thing that Major League

197
00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:20,200
Speaker 1: Baseball gives you almost more than you can handle is data.

198
00:08:20,160 --> 00:08:23,640
Speaker 2: You touched on the five first five bet.

199
00:08:23,720 --> 00:08:25,880
Speaker 1: I want to talk about this too, because I think

200
00:08:26,360 --> 00:08:28,440
Speaker 1: that's another bet that I know we've talked about quite

201
00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:31,160
Speaker 1: a bit on our MLB program. So for those people

202
00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:33,560
Speaker 1: who don't understand let's get into that. Let's give our

203
00:08:33,800 --> 00:08:36,440
Speaker 1: spiel about whether or not you want to get involved

204
00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:38,400
Speaker 1: with again the first five betting.

205
00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:40,800
Speaker 4: This is where yeah, and I think I jumped to

206
00:08:40,800 --> 00:08:43,360
Speaker 4: it before because this is where I live. I live

207
00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:46,560
Speaker 4: in the first five. This is eighty percent of my

208
00:08:46,800 --> 00:08:49,880
Speaker 4: game betting I ever do. Rarely am I jumping into

209
00:08:49,920 --> 00:08:52,439
Speaker 4: full game bets. I live in the first five. And

210
00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:55,280
Speaker 4: there's multiple ways you can play it. So this is

211
00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:58,120
Speaker 4: obviously like pretend your game just goes on through the

212
00:08:58,120 --> 00:08:59,040
Speaker 4: first five innings.

213
00:08:59,160 --> 00:09:00,000
Speaker 3: Why is that important?

214
00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:01,240
Speaker 2: Well, let's say you.

215
00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:04,400
Speaker 4: Got a starter, a great starter who is a dominant

216
00:09:04,440 --> 00:09:08,160
Speaker 4: pitcher with a garbage bullpen. This guy can pitch fantastic

217
00:09:08,200 --> 00:09:09,800
Speaker 4: through the first five or six innings, and then the

218
00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:11,040
Speaker 4: bullpen can give it away.

219
00:09:11,360 --> 00:09:13,679
Speaker 3: Think of it like the quality start.

220
00:09:13,559 --> 00:09:15,880
Speaker 4: Of gambling, you know what I'm saying. Like everyone's like, hey,

221
00:09:15,960 --> 00:09:17,920
Speaker 4: let's get rid of wins and focus on quality starts.

222
00:09:18,280 --> 00:09:21,880
Speaker 4: A win is like a full game. A quality start

223
00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:25,120
Speaker 4: is the first five. So you've got just better odds

224
00:09:25,320 --> 00:09:27,280
Speaker 4: through here to just.

225
00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:29,680
Speaker 2: Give an eligibility for those people who might not know

226
00:09:29,760 --> 00:09:30,160
Speaker 2: as well.

227
00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:35,160
Speaker 4: So the standard is you've got your run line, your

228
00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:38,600
Speaker 4: total runs, and your money line that you can play. Typically,

229
00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:41,360
Speaker 4: the run line is a half of a run in

230
00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:44,640
Speaker 4: favor of a team. The over line elver is somewhere

231
00:09:44,679 --> 00:09:47,000
Speaker 4: between like four and five, and then you have a

232
00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:49,760
Speaker 4: money line that's usually pretty juiced in favor of a pitcher.

233
00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:53,800
Speaker 4: But I find those really beneficial. The other first five

234
00:09:53,960 --> 00:09:58,120
Speaker 4: that I have been killing this year is team total runs.

235
00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:01,040
Speaker 4: This has probably been my mosthold this year, which I'm

236
00:10:01,040 --> 00:10:04,600
Speaker 4: even surprised about, and that is attacking the amount of

237
00:10:04,760 --> 00:10:07,960
Speaker 4: runs a team will score in that period of time.

238
00:10:08,240 --> 00:10:09,840
Speaker 3: And I find the research really easy.

239
00:10:09,920 --> 00:10:12,440
Speaker 4: You go take a look at this pitcher. What have

240
00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:14,960
Speaker 4: they been doing through the first five? How does this

241
00:10:15,040 --> 00:10:17,640
Speaker 4: team score through the first five? That's another one. As

242
00:10:17,640 --> 00:10:18,480
Speaker 4: I was mentioning to.

243
00:10:18,440 --> 00:10:21,640
Speaker 3: You, I have the first five upright here. Currently, the

244
00:10:21,679 --> 00:10:25,400
Speaker 3: Texas Rangers score the most runs in the first five innings.

245
00:10:25,400 --> 00:10:28,040
Speaker 3: They score three point seven to seven. Tampa Bay's number

246
00:10:28,040 --> 00:10:30,640
Speaker 3: two at three point seven to three. I'll take a look.

247
00:10:30,840 --> 00:10:32,360
Speaker 4: How do they on the year, and how are they

248
00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:35,800
Speaker 4: over their last three games? As we're recording this, and

249
00:10:36,160 --> 00:10:38,160
Speaker 4: this is where the kind of like the little secrets

250
00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:40,840
Speaker 4: can come in. The Chicago White Sox have scored seven

251
00:10:41,360 --> 00:10:44,440
Speaker 4: runs over the last three games in the first five innings,

252
00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:47,240
Speaker 4: so I had attacked them early on against the Royals.

253
00:10:47,440 --> 00:10:49,040
Speaker 3: So those are ways I like to play it.

254
00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:53,520
Speaker 4: Specifically, I'm going to play the run line. The money

255
00:10:53,520 --> 00:10:55,640
Speaker 4: line is a good push if you want to play that,

256
00:10:56,040 --> 00:10:58,160
Speaker 4: and I'm going to play the team total runs through

257
00:10:58,200 --> 00:11:01,640
Speaker 4: the first five. That's one of my favorite places to go,

258
00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:03,959
Speaker 4: and sometimes I did this on leading off the other day,

259
00:11:03,960 --> 00:11:05,440
Speaker 4: I was like, Joe, if you remember, I was like,

260
00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:07,160
Speaker 4: you know, I don't know what I want to do

261
00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:08,679
Speaker 4: with the White Sox. I kind of want to take

262
00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:11,959
Speaker 4: the team total runs, but I also like the over runs,

263
00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:13,640
Speaker 4: which was four and a half and I haven't decided,

264
00:11:13,640 --> 00:11:15,360
Speaker 4: and someone in the chat was like, oh, don't take either.

265
00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:17,000
Speaker 3: They stink Both of them.

266
00:11:16,880 --> 00:11:19,040
Speaker 4: Cashed and you could cash on both sides of those,

267
00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:21,920
Speaker 4: so you can play those as a double up bet.

268
00:11:22,080 --> 00:11:24,720
Speaker 4: Those are my favorite to go to, and team total

269
00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:27,240
Speaker 4: runs is probably number one right now, then I'll go

270
00:11:27,280 --> 00:11:28,480
Speaker 4: to run line through the first five.

271
00:11:28,880 --> 00:11:31,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, team total runs is a little easier control. Again,

272
00:11:31,400 --> 00:11:33,160
Speaker 1: the more variance you add, the harder it is to

273
00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:34,760
Speaker 1: make money, something we talk about all the time, which

274
00:11:34,800 --> 00:11:37,520
Speaker 1: is why we pick parlays in Baseball very very carefully.

275
00:11:37,720 --> 00:11:39,120
Speaker 1: Like if I like a player to hit a home

276
00:11:39,200 --> 00:11:41,040
Speaker 1: run that night, I might as well bet him for

277
00:11:41,080 --> 00:11:41,520
Speaker 1: the home run.

278
00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:43,000
Speaker 2: I might as well bet him for the total base

279
00:11:43,080 --> 00:11:45,120
Speaker 2: and the run. I'm either all in or I'm not.

280
00:11:45,640 --> 00:11:48,400
Speaker 1: Also, every day's board is different in Major League Baseballs,

281
00:11:48,400 --> 00:11:50,440
Speaker 1: something we stress a lot on the show. There's days

282
00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:52,400
Speaker 1: where I remember last week, there was one day where

283
00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:54,920
Speaker 1: I went crazy with the overs on k props and

284
00:11:54,960 --> 00:11:57,600
Speaker 1: I hit what four out of six of them. It

285
00:11:57,640 --> 00:12:00,480
Speaker 1: was a great day. It was tremendous. And then the

286
00:12:00,520 --> 00:12:02,280
Speaker 1: next day I was like, there's nothing on this prop board.

287
00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:04,720
Speaker 1: I like, let's just shift over to money lines and

288
00:12:05,000 --> 00:12:07,320
Speaker 1: put them together and make some money there. So every

289
00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:10,120
Speaker 1: day is like a blank canvas at MLB, and you

290
00:12:10,200 --> 00:12:12,120
Speaker 1: have to be very careful as well, because there's things

291
00:12:12,160 --> 00:12:13,920
Speaker 1: you're going to go in on and things in certain

292
00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:16,480
Speaker 1: days where you're not. So you have to pay attention

293
00:12:16,559 --> 00:12:19,800
Speaker 1: to what every day is specifically, because some days, the

294
00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:23,280
Speaker 1: pitching matchups, the hitting matchups, they don't allow themselves to

295
00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:25,720
Speaker 1: good bets, and that's okay. That's when you pivot to

296
00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:28,559
Speaker 1: the games. And then some days it's more about individuals

297
00:12:28,640 --> 00:12:31,160
Speaker 1: and it is about the game totals and other numbers

298
00:12:31,200 --> 00:12:32,959
Speaker 1: like that. And again, if you're going to make these bets,

299
00:12:33,280 --> 00:12:35,319
Speaker 1: do it in a place like betmgm and use promo

300
00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:37,679
Speaker 1: code juice when you do, because you get a thousand

301
00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:40,160
Speaker 1: dollars in free bonuses even if you don't win with

302
00:12:40,160 --> 00:12:42,280
Speaker 1: our partner bet MGM, So it's a great place to

303
00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:44,880
Speaker 1: make some of these MLB wagers. Again, bet mgm, use

304
00:12:44,920 --> 00:12:47,400
Speaker 1: the promo code juice when you sign up. Welsh, I

305
00:12:47,400 --> 00:12:49,280
Speaker 1: want to talk about ladder betting, which is something you

306
00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:52,520
Speaker 1: introduced me to this year that I wasn't even doing.

307
00:12:52,640 --> 00:12:54,679
Speaker 1: And for those people who don't know, this is an

308
00:12:54,679 --> 00:12:57,200
Speaker 1: interesting way to make money, but again a way where

309
00:12:57,240 --> 00:13:00,240
Speaker 1: it's really heavily targeted of when you do it. It's

310
00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:03,760
Speaker 1: not something you do every day. Certain circumstances can prove

311
00:13:03,800 --> 00:13:05,160
Speaker 1: out to be very profitable.

312
00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:06,160
Speaker 2: So let's talk about it.

313
00:13:06,360 --> 00:13:06,680
Speaker 3: Okay.

314
00:13:06,800 --> 00:13:10,760
Speaker 4: So the idea behind ladder betting is it's incredibly simple.

315
00:13:11,480 --> 00:13:13,360
Speaker 4: Let's let's just first say, do you want to give

316
00:13:13,400 --> 00:13:14,440
Speaker 4: the example that I've got up here?

317
00:13:14,480 --> 00:13:15,959
Speaker 2: Yes, And this is a this is a real world,

318
00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:17,080
Speaker 2: easy to learn I find.

319
00:13:17,120 --> 00:13:19,079
Speaker 4: Okay, this is a real world example for I don't

320
00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:20,560
Speaker 4: know when this episode is going to drop. This is

321
00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:22,839
Speaker 4: for Thursday, and I was trying to look and give

322
00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:25,120
Speaker 4: you one. So the idea here is that you're going

323
00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:28,760
Speaker 4: to stack your bets on a player's strikeouts as they

324
00:13:28,800 --> 00:13:32,080
Speaker 4: go up. Shohio Tani has been a great one this year.

325
00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:34,520
Speaker 4: There's multiple players I had won earlier in the year

326
00:13:34,679 --> 00:13:36,920
Speaker 4: which was looking great. Jacob de Gram and then he

327
00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:41,600
Speaker 4: got hurt. Spencer Strid to Gram, Otani, those are probably

328
00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:43,280
Speaker 4: the top three guys that you would want to go in.

329
00:13:43,360 --> 00:13:46,439
Speaker 4: But the logic here is, this is a guy that

330
00:13:46,640 --> 00:13:50,240
Speaker 4: is going to be able to far surpasser strikeout numbers,

331
00:13:50,320 --> 00:13:52,959
Speaker 4: usually against a pretty strikeout heavy team. So my example

332
00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:55,960
Speaker 4: here is you Darvish. Let's go with this for a minute.

333
00:13:55,960 --> 00:13:59,679
Speaker 4: On Thursdays going up against Minnesota. Minnesota has struck out

334
00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:03,800
Speaker 4: the third most per game on the season. Darvish, so

335
00:14:03,960 --> 00:14:07,160
Speaker 4: far two games this year he has nine or more

336
00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:09,920
Speaker 4: strikeouts and both of those And this is why I

337
00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:13,400
Speaker 4: think this one is really interesting. Came against heavy strikeout

338
00:14:13,400 --> 00:14:16,920
Speaker 4: teams San Francisco who's the worst in strikeouts, and Milwaukee,

339
00:14:17,080 --> 00:14:19,360
Speaker 4: who's in like the top I think they're twenty at

340
00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:21,480
Speaker 4: like top ten, you know, top ten top eleven in

341
00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:24,760
Speaker 4: strikeouts so much shows we're doing this episode. I've never

342
00:14:24,760 --> 00:14:27,040
Speaker 4: seen this with Kershaw, or at least not yet this year.

343
00:14:27,160 --> 00:14:29,720
Speaker 4: His strikeout number is eight and a half versus Milwaukee,

344
00:14:29,800 --> 00:14:31,200
Speaker 4: which is an absurd number for him.

345
00:14:31,200 --> 00:14:32,240
Speaker 3: We just don't usually see that.

346
00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:36,640
Speaker 4: So let's say that the market on Thursday opens up

347
00:14:36,640 --> 00:14:38,600
Speaker 4: at six and a half. I do think there's a

348
00:14:38,640 --> 00:14:41,440
Speaker 4: possibility that it's seven and a half seeing what we

349
00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:43,760
Speaker 4: just saw with Kershaw, but just follow me here. Let's

350
00:14:43,760 --> 00:14:45,760
Speaker 4: say it's six and a half and it's like going

351
00:14:45,800 --> 00:14:48,480
Speaker 4: to be you know, minus one fifteen for six and

352
00:14:48,480 --> 00:14:52,640
Speaker 4: a half strikeouts. Well, we know that Darvish can pull up.

353
00:14:52,560 --> 00:14:53,600
Speaker 3: Ten plus strikeouts.

354
00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:56,600
Speaker 4: We know that this team strikes out a ton, and

355
00:14:56,640 --> 00:14:59,160
Speaker 4: we've targeted this bet. So here's how we would bet it.

356
00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:04,600
Speaker 4: Two units, go and put that on six strikeouts. You know,

357
00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:06,560
Speaker 4: put that on this because usually when you do this

358
00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:08,880
Speaker 4: on certain books, you're not going to get the halves

359
00:15:08,920 --> 00:15:09,240
Speaker 4: and stuff.

360
00:15:09,240 --> 00:15:10,840
Speaker 3: You're just going to have to go straight strikeouts.

361
00:15:10,880 --> 00:15:13,800
Speaker 4: So we do two units on six strikeouts, which is

362
00:15:13,800 --> 00:15:16,120
Speaker 4: probably going to be heavily juiced at like you know,

363
00:15:16,200 --> 00:15:18,840
Speaker 4: one minus one sixty. Then we're going to go and

364
00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:20,520
Speaker 4: We're going to bet a unit to a unit and

365
00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:23,800
Speaker 4: a half on seven strikeouts, which is probably going to

366
00:15:23,840 --> 00:15:26,440
Speaker 4: be minus one ten, you know, maybe even money if

367
00:15:26,520 --> 00:15:26,960
Speaker 4: we're lucky.

368
00:15:27,360 --> 00:15:29,960
Speaker 3: Then we're going to bring it down at eight strikeouts.

369
00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:33,000
Speaker 4: Let's bet a unit at nine strikeouts, we bet half

370
00:15:33,000 --> 00:15:35,040
Speaker 4: a unit, and then maybe we put like a quarter

371
00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:36,440
Speaker 4: on ten strikeouts.

372
00:15:36,560 --> 00:15:37,840
Speaker 3: You can obviously adjust this.

373
00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:40,120
Speaker 4: If this is a seven and a half number, then

374
00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:42,760
Speaker 4: you would use your unit at seven, eight, nine, and ten.

375
00:15:43,080 --> 00:15:45,640
Speaker 4: You don't have to bet two units. You could do one,

376
00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:48,520
Speaker 4: half a quarter or one and a half. You do

377
00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:51,680
Speaker 4: whatever your flavor is. But that is the concept of

378
00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:54,200
Speaker 4: the latter betting. You've really got to find a guy

379
00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:56,840
Speaker 4: that can touch those high strikeout numbers, and you've got

380
00:15:56,880 --> 00:15:59,240
Speaker 4: to attack it versus the numbers that the books put out.

381
00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:01,080
Speaker 4: And don't be afraid of the juice that's put on

382
00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:03,920
Speaker 4: a player in that instance. Go shop around, look for

383
00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:04,640
Speaker 4: the best ones.

384
00:16:04,960 --> 00:16:05,800
Speaker 2: It can be fun.

385
00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:08,760
Speaker 4: It's brutal when you lose because you've probably put three

386
00:16:08,840 --> 00:16:11,400
Speaker 4: units on it, but the win is on the end

387
00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:13,880
Speaker 4: verse and if you do it right, you will feel

388
00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:14,920
Speaker 4: mighty mighty happy.

389
00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:18,440
Speaker 1: Once again, it comes down to focused targeting.

390
00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:19,120
Speaker 2: Betting.

391
00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:21,280
Speaker 1: That's what you do here when it comes to Major

392
00:16:21,320 --> 00:16:25,280
Speaker 1: League Baseball. Another thing is obviously the futures market of

393
00:16:25,280 --> 00:16:28,400
Speaker 1: Major League Baseball, which is something where again Welsh lives

394
00:16:28,400 --> 00:16:29,160
Speaker 1: in certain places.

395
00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:30,160
Speaker 2: This is where I live.

396
00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:32,400
Speaker 4: You're a monster in this You are a monster in

397
00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:33,040
Speaker 4: this territory.

398
00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:35,440
Speaker 1: Gave you Bryce Harper two years ago at thirty to one.

399
00:16:36,160 --> 00:16:39,480
Speaker 1: Last year in March, gave you Justin Verlander twenty five

400
00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:42,680
Speaker 1: to one to win the Cy Young And the reason why,

401
00:16:43,000 --> 00:16:45,080
Speaker 1: again I think anybody can do this is because I'm

402
00:16:45,080 --> 00:16:49,680
Speaker 1: talking about making small bets here and then understanding you

403
00:16:49,720 --> 00:16:51,880
Speaker 1: playing it like the stock market, and what you're doing

404
00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:54,440
Speaker 1: basically is at the end of the day, probably investing

405
00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:57,040
Speaker 1: a few hundred dollars potentially or one hundred units whatever

406
00:16:57,040 --> 00:16:59,880
Speaker 1: it is you're looking at, and return is going to

407
00:16:59,920 --> 00:17:03,040
Speaker 1: be thousands, literally thousands. And the way to do it

408
00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:05,280
Speaker 1: is very simple. The first thing is to understand that

409
00:17:05,920 --> 00:17:08,800
Speaker 1: it's a media award, which means it's looking for a narrative.

410
00:17:09,080 --> 00:17:11,720
Speaker 1: It's voted on by the media. So whenever you have

411
00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:13,840
Speaker 1: a narrative of a player, it's very important it's not

412
00:17:13,840 --> 00:17:16,480
Speaker 1: always about the most valuable player, because Shoey Otani is

413
00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:19,240
Speaker 1: always the most valuable player. The problem is last year

414
00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:22,600
Speaker 1: he ran up against a media juggernaut of a Yankee

415
00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:25,679
Speaker 1: breaking a home run record in a media market of

416
00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:26,439
Speaker 1: New York City.

417
00:17:26,600 --> 00:17:27,840
Speaker 2: So of course Aaron.

418
00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:29,959
Speaker 1: Judge was going to eventually overtake him for that award,

419
00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:32,760
Speaker 1: and he did this year. Going in, we did a

420
00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:35,040
Speaker 1: Major League Baseball show. We told you the things we

421
00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:36,920
Speaker 1: liked going in, and then once you get six seven

422
00:17:36,920 --> 00:17:39,200
Speaker 1: weeks in the season as we are now, there's movement

423
00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:40,440
Speaker 1: on some of these things, and some of the things

424
00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:42,400
Speaker 1: that were in on early, two of which have really

425
00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:45,280
Speaker 1: changed significantly. If you have the Betting Pros app or

426
00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:48,159
Speaker 1: if you're on Bettingpros dot com, you could see the

427
00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:51,520
Speaker 1: opening lines for Zach Gallen and Spencer Strider, two of

428
00:17:51,560 --> 00:17:54,600
Speaker 1: our favorite guys for Cy Young. They were at plus

429
00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:58,200
Speaker 1: fifteen hundred and plus fourteen hundred respectively. They are now

430
00:17:58,240 --> 00:18:00,639
Speaker 1: two and a half to one or plus three hundred

431
00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:02,760
Speaker 1: right now. Those are the best spots you can get them.

432
00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:05,920
Speaker 1: And these were our two favorite quote unquote long shots

433
00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:09,560
Speaker 1: that we invested in. So if you're just investing a

434
00:18:09,680 --> 00:18:13,159
Speaker 1: unit or two early on, once you see the market

435
00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:15,160
Speaker 1: move like this, this is when you start to as

436
00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:18,040
Speaker 1: I say, double down and triple down, because eventually once

437
00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:20,160
Speaker 1: these go into the negative side, when they go into

438
00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:23,479
Speaker 1: the minus juice, that's when the value gets away. So

439
00:18:23,520 --> 00:18:25,439
Speaker 1: what you do is you take the small units invested

440
00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:28,200
Speaker 1: at plus fifteen hundred, plus fourteen hundred. Then as the

441
00:18:28,280 --> 00:18:31,560
Speaker 1: number continues to shrink, you keep reinvesting, just like a stock.

442
00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:34,560
Speaker 1: And then eventually what you're doing is you're investing higher

443
00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:38,120
Speaker 1: numbers at the lower thresholds because now you have one

444
00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:41,720
Speaker 1: big giant investment in those players. Of course, injuries can happen,

445
00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:45,280
Speaker 1: of course things change. Manny Machada was red hot last year,

446
00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:47,800
Speaker 1: going in for the first half of the season, looked

447
00:18:47,800 --> 00:18:50,520
Speaker 1: like the MVP. I didn't spend one single dime on

448
00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:52,879
Speaker 1: it because I know Manny Machadda is not a player that's.

449
00:18:52,840 --> 00:18:54,440
Speaker 2: Very well liked in media circles.

450
00:18:54,720 --> 00:18:57,760
Speaker 1: And also you'd have to keep up that incredible, astonishing pace.

451
00:18:58,080 --> 00:18:59,840
Speaker 1: It's more about how you finished than how you start

452
00:18:59,880 --> 00:19:03,879
Speaker 1: with this award. Hence Bryce Harper last year too. Looking

453
00:19:03,920 --> 00:19:06,960
Speaker 1: at other spots, showy Otani was another person we bet

454
00:19:07,080 --> 00:19:10,240
Speaker 1: at twelve to one for Cy Young because we said, hey,

455
00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:13,120
Speaker 1: you know there's an opportunity here where the MVP number

456
00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:15,719
Speaker 1: isn't great, but man, the Cy Young number is well,

457
00:19:15,760 --> 00:19:17,760
Speaker 1: guess what that twelve to one is now four and

458
00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:20,600
Speaker 1: a half to one. And then Clayton Kershaw, the latest

459
00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:23,120
Speaker 1: guy Welsh that I'm in on, was plus thirty five

460
00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:26,240
Speaker 1: hundred to start the year. Now he's plus twelve hundred.

461
00:19:26,280 --> 00:19:27,760
Speaker 1: For Cy Young, that number has.

462
00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:28,639
Speaker 2: Been cut in half.

463
00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:32,600
Speaker 1: There's a great narrative here carrying this Dodger's rotation, high

464
00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:35,280
Speaker 1: profile team and a guy who really has been limited

465
00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:37,359
Speaker 1: to just twenty two starts the last couple of years.

466
00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:40,320
Speaker 1: This could be kind of like Verlander of last year

467
00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:43,320
Speaker 1: if Kershaw can put a big, healthy season together Welsh.

468
00:19:43,320 --> 00:19:46,040
Speaker 1: When it comes to MVP, it's a little trickier. Otani

469
00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:48,520
Speaker 1: was the heaviest favorite he's ever been because he's such

470
00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:51,399
Speaker 1: an anomaly, but the danger of him getting traded to

471
00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:54,680
Speaker 1: the National League would absolutely blow up your money. Hence

472
00:19:55,000 --> 00:19:58,440
Speaker 1: a better investment, a smaller investment in Cy Young would

473
00:19:58,480 --> 00:20:00,800
Speaker 1: have been the better way to go looking at MVP.

474
00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:03,480
Speaker 1: To me, these boards are still very wide open. You've

475
00:20:03,520 --> 00:20:06,920
Speaker 1: seen some movement here. You'll look for standalone guys, though

476
00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:10,159
Speaker 1: it's sometimes difficult on a team of superstars like the

477
00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:13,560
Speaker 1: Braves of the Padres or even the Dodgers, to separate

478
00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:15,440
Speaker 1: yourselves from the other stars and the team, which is

479
00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:17,320
Speaker 1: why a guy like Pete a Lonzo sometimes makes a

480
00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:18,959
Speaker 1: lot of sense, or a guy who's more of a

481
00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:23,000
Speaker 1: standalone person on their squad because it's easier like Aaron

482
00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:26,239
Speaker 1: Judge to kind of be clearly the most valuable. And

483
00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:28,560
Speaker 1: then Welsh, nobody's better at rookies than you. You host

484
00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:31,719
Speaker 1: a prospect podcast, what do you look for early on

485
00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:33,400
Speaker 1: and then as the season goes on when it comes

486
00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:35,640
Speaker 1: to betting on the Rookie of the Year award.

487
00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:38,600
Speaker 4: I'm just looking for sustainability. I'm looking for players that

488
00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:40,880
Speaker 4: are going to be able to stick around. Obviously, I'm

489
00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:45,400
Speaker 4: also putting my own prospect touch into it. I talked

490
00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:47,880
Speaker 4: a lot about Corman Carroll Corbyn. Carroll was my bet.

491
00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:49,520
Speaker 4: I got him around four to one. I think that

492
00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:51,919
Speaker 4: was the odds early on. That was my odds on favorite.

493
00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:55,480
Speaker 4: James Outman was the Killer of Killer and Craig Mish

494
00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:57,880
Speaker 4: came on with us on leading off during Fantasy Fest

495
00:20:57,880 --> 00:20:59,440
Speaker 4: and said he was Rookie the year he is now

496
00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:01,680
Speaker 4: the odds on favorite, which is bonkers. He was plus

497
00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:04,240
Speaker 4: seventy five hundred. That'll be the biggest payoff. But my

498
00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:07,159
Speaker 4: bets coming into this season, because I don't do a

499
00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:09,680
Speaker 4: lot of future betting, I went Corbin Caroly in the NL.

500
00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:13,320
Speaker 4: In the AL, I doubled down and I got Masataki

501
00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:17,040
Speaker 4: Yoshida and Anthony Volpi and I put even money the

502
00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:19,320
Speaker 4: same amount of units on both of those guys to

503
00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:22,320
Speaker 4: cover two sides of the AL Rookie of the Year

504
00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:25,360
Speaker 4: because I felt Yoshida's ability to be in that lineup

505
00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:27,359
Speaker 4: the whole season was going to help and as a

506
00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:30,760
Speaker 4: media award, Anthony Volpi would be the darling. The best

507
00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:33,360
Speaker 4: deep bet was josh Young and I had said that

508
00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:35,040
Speaker 4: it was eleven to one. He has moved up to

509
00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:35,760
Speaker 4: six to one now.

510
00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:36,240
Speaker 3: It's good.

511
00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:39,439
Speaker 4: But Yoshida is I think the odds on favorite in

512
00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:41,560
Speaker 4: the AL right now and I got great odds on it,

513
00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:44,840
Speaker 4: and my backup is Anthony Volpi. So I like in

514
00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:48,080
Speaker 4: these type of spots to take two bets to kind

515
00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:51,800
Speaker 4: of hedge my bet and watch the unit size. Obviously,

516
00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:53,240
Speaker 4: I'm probably not going to do that if they're like

517
00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:55,840
Speaker 4: two to one, but when you can get a seven

518
00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:58,679
Speaker 4: plus to one, and I can take two of the guys,

519
00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:01,320
Speaker 4: I hedge it all a little bit, and my odd

520
00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:02,320
Speaker 4: just become a lot greater.

521
00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:04,159
Speaker 2: And this is where the overlap is.

522
00:22:04,160 --> 00:22:07,280
Speaker 1: If you play daily fantasy, if you play Fantasy Baseball,

523
00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:09,800
Speaker 1: if you watch our baseball shows over on the MLB

524
00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:12,639
Speaker 1: channel on YouTube, this is where you could take that

525
00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 1: knowledge and apply it right. Josh Young was a player

526
00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 1: we talked about being a steal in drafts late great player.

527
00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:18,360
Speaker 2: Last year.

528
00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:21,000
Speaker 1: Injuries just kind of derailed his rookie season. This year,

529
00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:23,160
Speaker 1: came back healthy and he is absolutely rock and rolling.

530
00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:25,159
Speaker 1: He was Rookie of the Month of April in the

531
00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:28,640
Speaker 1: American League. That kind of knowledge and in certain spots too,

532
00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:31,440
Speaker 1: where you can cash out. In certain sites like FanDuel,

533
00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:33,520
Speaker 1: you've already made money on Josh Young. If you don't

534
00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:34,920
Speaker 1: want to see it all the way through to the end,

535
00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:38,239
Speaker 1: they let you cash out. Some sites do that, so

536
00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:40,240
Speaker 1: keep that in mind as well. Same thing with Outman.

537
00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:41,960
Speaker 1: You've already made a ton of money if you invested

538
00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:44,400
Speaker 1: an Outman earlier in the year. My man, my guess

539
00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:46,520
Speaker 1: is we should have listened to our friend Craig Mitchell

540
00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:48,840
Speaker 1: on that show and had more investment in him. But

541
00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 1: the point is this, if you watch baseball, if you

542
00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:54,320
Speaker 1: play Fantasy baseball, if you play TFS, there's ways to

543
00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:57,600
Speaker 1: make money with MLB and there's ways to make it

544
00:22:57,680 --> 00:22:59,960
Speaker 1: less intimidating. We hope we did that for you today.

545
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:02,360
Speaker 1: Of course, you can go follow us and watch us

546
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:06,640
Speaker 1: every single day live on our MLB channel, Fantasy Pros MLB.

547
00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 1: We've got great videos over there, and of course make

548
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:11,760
Speaker 1: sure you subscribe to Betting Pros as well, and wherever

549
00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:14,000
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts. We're also on the YouTube. Every

550
00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:15,800
Speaker 1: single show is on the YouTube. We've got a lot

551
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:19,160
Speaker 1: of great short form content on both channels as well,

552
00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:21,239
Speaker 1: so make sure you check that out. Check out our

553
00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:24,080
Speaker 1: sponsor to BETMGM use that promo code Juice when you

554
00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:25,879
Speaker 1: sign up and that'll do it for us. But the

555
00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:27,720
Speaker 1: story of the game goes on for the Welsh. I'm

556
00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:30,800
Speaker 1: Joey P. We'll see you next time, kids,