1
00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:10,600
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

2
00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:14,560
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

3
00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:18,480
Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Applecarplay and Enrouno with the Bloomberg Business App.

4
00:00:18,560 --> 00:00:21,720
Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

5
00:00:21,800 --> 00:00:24,760
Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

6
00:00:25,720 --> 00:00:29,040
Speaker 2: Here at the Outpost in Washington. We did make it

7
00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:31,000
Speaker 2: to the end of the week. An interesting one here

8
00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:34,720
Speaker 2: with the PCE data. Not really interesting the word I'm

9
00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:36,559
Speaker 2: sure the White House is using as it looks at

10
00:00:36,560 --> 00:00:39,680
Speaker 2: this repeated reminder. Now three months in the making PCE

11
00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:44,680
Speaker 2: hotter than they wish, pushing back expectations for FED rate cuts,

12
00:00:44,800 --> 00:00:48,720
Speaker 2: of course, one of which Joe Biden himself predicted by

13
00:00:48,760 --> 00:00:51,839
Speaker 2: the end of the year. The headline on the terminal

14
00:00:51,840 --> 00:00:55,880
Speaker 2: inflation data reinforce Powell shift toward higher for longer, so

15
00:00:56,240 --> 00:00:58,280
Speaker 2: you can come up with your own theory as to

16
00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:01,640
Speaker 2: why stocks are higher. But it's not lifting moods in

17
00:01:01,680 --> 00:01:05,000
Speaker 2: the Biden campaign. As I turned to another headline on

18
00:01:05,040 --> 00:01:08,399
Speaker 2: the Terminal from our friend Gregory Cordy, inflation overshadowing US

19
00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:12,039
Speaker 2: economic resilience, hurting Biden and he's with us right now.

20
00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:16,280
Speaker 2: Gregory Cordy here in Washington. Goodness us her. This is

21
00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:19,399
Speaker 2: sort of the ultimate good news is bad news story,

22
00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:19,840
Speaker 2: isn't it.

23
00:01:20,600 --> 00:01:24,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, So we're having this sort of soft landing, but

24
00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:27,840
Speaker 3: it's such a soft landing that it's sort of excruciating

25
00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:32,000
Speaker 3: to watch the economy grow a little slower than expected

26
00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:35,360
Speaker 3: while inflation remains a little higher than expected. And it's

27
00:01:35,400 --> 00:01:39,040
Speaker 3: really put President Joe Biden in this sort of vice

28
00:01:39,120 --> 00:01:42,920
Speaker 3: where the economy is betwixt and between, and when people

29
00:01:43,040 --> 00:01:46,560
Speaker 3: get conflicting signals about the economy, they tend to be

30
00:01:46,600 --> 00:01:50,320
Speaker 3: negative about. Uncertainty is bad for markets, and it's bad

31
00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:54,080
Speaker 3: for voters who want to kind of see the light

32
00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:55,920
Speaker 3: at the end of the tunnel and they're not quite

33
00:01:55,960 --> 00:01:57,200
Speaker 3: seeing it by the end of this year.

34
00:01:57,320 --> 00:02:00,760
Speaker 2: Well, that's right, and that means, you know, potentially higher

35
00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:02,920
Speaker 2: for longer, which is a problem for a lot of

36
00:02:02,960 --> 00:02:05,920
Speaker 2: people for a lot of reasons when they're borrowing money.

37
00:02:05,920 --> 00:02:09,239
Speaker 2: It certainly has an impact on the housing market here,

38
00:02:09,639 --> 00:02:13,040
Speaker 2: young people asking for a break when it comes to debt.

39
00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:17,360
Speaker 2: Joe Biden, as I mentioned, predicted a rate cut. And

40
00:02:17,400 --> 00:02:21,480
Speaker 2: I know that the White House constantly differs, doesn't want

41
00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:24,280
Speaker 2: to talk about the FED and we try Jared Bernstein

42
00:02:24,320 --> 00:02:24,960
Speaker 2: will be on later.

43
00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:29,400
Speaker 4: Don't tell them. I'll probably try. But they've got to have.

44
00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:31,920
Speaker 2: Their own dot plot inside the West Wing, just like

45
00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:35,000
Speaker 2: they do in the Biden campaign, and they were banking

46
00:02:35,080 --> 00:02:37,280
Speaker 2: on that, not just a soft landing, but to be

47
00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:40,080
Speaker 2: able to say, hey, we licked inflation, and that's starting

48
00:02:40,200 --> 00:02:41,080
Speaker 2: to look out of reach.

49
00:02:41,600 --> 00:02:41,799
Speaker 4: Yeah.

50
00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:44,480
Speaker 3: One of the biggest problems is that the second quarter

51
00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:47,119
Speaker 3: of an election year, so right about now, is when

52
00:02:47,320 --> 00:02:51,120
Speaker 3: voters tend to kind of solidify their opinions about the

53
00:02:51,120 --> 00:02:54,760
Speaker 3: economy that they take with them to November. The perception

54
00:02:54,880 --> 00:03:00,200
Speaker 3: always lags the reality. So if the reality is uncertain, now,

55
00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:03,240
Speaker 3: what's it going to be in November? And if so,

56
00:03:03,280 --> 00:03:05,440
Speaker 3: if you're a Biden campaign, you want some good news

57
00:03:05,880 --> 00:03:08,120
Speaker 3: not just by November, you want it pretty soon. So

58
00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:10,320
Speaker 3: if people have a time to really digest that news

59
00:03:10,680 --> 00:03:13,040
Speaker 3: and feel it by the time they go into the

60
00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:14,040
Speaker 3: voting booth in November.

61
00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:18,440
Speaker 2: In the meantime, we tend to talk about not economic

62
00:03:18,520 --> 00:03:22,359
Speaker 2: data but the political campaign. They do have an opportunity

63
00:03:22,680 --> 00:03:25,280
Speaker 2: for the next six to eight weeks. The other guy

64
00:03:25,400 --> 00:03:28,280
Speaker 2: is locked in a courtroom. To what extent can Joe

65
00:03:28,280 --> 00:03:31,160
Speaker 2: Biden leverage that he's been certainly traveling a lot more

66
00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:33,440
Speaker 2: while to reinforce the split screen.

67
00:03:33,639 --> 00:03:37,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's really interesting because Biden has been, and we

68
00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:39,760
Speaker 3: remember this from twenty twenty, a bit of a homebody,

69
00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:43,400
Speaker 3: remember the Basement campaign, and in common presence, tend to

70
00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:47,000
Speaker 3: wage the Rosegarden campaign, do a lot of official announcements,

71
00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:50,880
Speaker 3: but stay at the White House. And really the amount

72
00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:54,320
Speaker 3: that President Biden is traveling now you have to think

73
00:03:54,360 --> 00:03:58,320
Speaker 3: that it's a deliberate response to the fact that Trump

74
00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:02,120
Speaker 3: can't travel and taking avantage of that. He's in not

75
00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:04,520
Speaker 3: just going to swing states, but he's in New York

76
00:04:04,720 --> 00:04:08,760
Speaker 3: this week. He's doing media. He's doing not just the

77
00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:11,080
Speaker 3: sort of campaign thing, but he's he's trying to project

78
00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:12,840
Speaker 3: a very sort of energetic presidency.

79
00:04:13,960 --> 00:04:17,719
Speaker 2: We should mention the fact. And for our satellite radio listeners.

80
00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:20,520
Speaker 2: On another channel, he's doing a sit down interview with

81
00:04:20,520 --> 00:04:21,320
Speaker 2: Howard Stern today.

82
00:04:21,440 --> 00:04:24,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, it just concluded. It was an hour and thirteen minutes,

83
00:04:24,640 --> 00:04:27,000
Speaker 3: no commercial interruptions. Yes, that's the way that on Howard

84
00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:29,800
Speaker 3: Stern dive and it was a deep dive into his

85
00:04:29,880 --> 00:04:32,320
Speaker 3: life story, his loss of his wife, the loss of

86
00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:35,839
Speaker 3: his son. Does very emotional interview it's part of this

87
00:04:36,320 --> 00:04:40,040
Speaker 3: kind of I've old enough to remember this Arsenio strategy.

88
00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:43,920
Speaker 3: Remember when Where's the Saxophone went on the Arsenio Hall

89
00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:46,560
Speaker 3: Show and everybody at the time said, you can't do that.

90
00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:47,680
Speaker 4: Oh, that was a big thing.

91
00:04:47,960 --> 00:04:50,720
Speaker 3: That's you know, there's a there's rules of political decorum,

92
00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:54,360
Speaker 3: and you have to do interviews with professional journalists.

93
00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:57,960
Speaker 4: Now they're announcing campaigns on late nights exactly, And so

94
00:04:57,960 --> 00:05:00,359
Speaker 4: Howard Stern has an audience that does not over lap

95
00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:03,840
Speaker 4: with entirely with the Bloomberg audience.

96
00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:04,040
Speaker 5: Right.

97
00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:07,480
Speaker 3: There's sure there's an overlap set that them then diagram,

98
00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:09,680
Speaker 3: but it's not exactly the same audience. So he's trying

99
00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:13,000
Speaker 3: to get that the listeners who might not pay attention

100
00:05:13,040 --> 00:05:16,720
Speaker 3: to politics. And Stern was a very friendly interview. It's

101
00:05:16,760 --> 00:05:20,000
Speaker 3: interesting because he enjoyed a very cozy rapport with Trump

102
00:05:20,080 --> 00:05:20,760
Speaker 3: for a decade.

103
00:05:21,839 --> 00:05:23,280
Speaker 4: Regrets, isn't that interesting?

104
00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:25,800
Speaker 2: Great to see it come back more often, Gregor recordy

105
00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:30,360
Speaker 2: and find the story inflation overshadowing economic resilience not what

106
00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:32,839
Speaker 2: they want to be reading, but likely are this weekend

107
00:05:33,760 --> 00:05:35,960
Speaker 2: in the Biden White House. Then again, he's got a

108
00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:38,040
Speaker 2: comedy routine tomorrow and I'm trying to keep it light.

109
00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:40,320
Speaker 2: It's the White House correspondence to Dinner weekend, and I'm

110
00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:44,400
Speaker 2: sure on Monday will be playing tape of some of

111
00:05:44,440 --> 00:05:45,279
Speaker 2: the routine.

112
00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:47,279
Speaker 4: I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington.

113
00:05:47,320 --> 00:05:50,080
Speaker 2: Glad you're with us today on Balance of Power here

114
00:05:50,120 --> 00:05:53,720
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite and on YouTube, where

115
00:05:53,760 --> 00:05:56,279
Speaker 2: you can find us right now search Bloomberg Global News

116
00:05:56,720 --> 00:05:59,080
Speaker 2: and find our live feed. One of the other top

117
00:05:59,120 --> 00:06:01,560
Speaker 2: stories that were fallowing today because we've heard so much

118
00:06:01,640 --> 00:06:04,719
Speaker 2: little about it, is the beginning of construction of this

119
00:06:04,839 --> 00:06:12,520
Speaker 2: temporary peer, the floating peer, to bring humanitarian aid to Gaza.

120
00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:15,560
Speaker 2: We've got news today and the Washington Post of fascinating

121
00:06:15,560 --> 00:06:18,360
Speaker 2: write up not only on the fact that this has begun,

122
00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:22,560
Speaker 2: but it's already becoming a target, or at least one

123
00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:25,080
Speaker 2: that militants would like to make a target. They launched

124
00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:27,800
Speaker 2: mortars at Israeli forces in Gaza, according to the Post,

125
00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:32,520
Speaker 2: as those forces prepared for the arrival of goods. The

126
00:06:32,600 --> 00:06:35,520
Speaker 2: attack on this marshaling area did not cause damage to

127
00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:37,840
Speaker 2: the US, as we're building all this outside of mortar

128
00:06:37,960 --> 00:06:42,760
Speaker 2: range hundreds of yards off the coast. But the Pentagon's

129
00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:45,479
Speaker 2: talking about this already, pat Ryder making it very clear

130
00:06:46,000 --> 00:06:50,960
Speaker 2: that the risks are high. Security analysts have been talking

131
00:06:50,960 --> 00:06:55,760
Speaker 2: about any number of threats, speedboats packed with explosives, divers

132
00:06:55,839 --> 00:06:59,640
Speaker 2: swimming with mines, and then of course incoming rockets. All

133
00:06:59,640 --> 00:07:03,320
Speaker 2: of this could become a very real problem when they

134
00:07:03,360 --> 00:07:08,640
Speaker 2: need to connect the bridge, the peer to land. And

135
00:07:08,680 --> 00:07:11,080
Speaker 2: it's something we wanted to talk about with David Harden.

136
00:07:11,400 --> 00:07:15,960
Speaker 2: He's managing director at Georgetown Strategy Group, former USAID Mission

137
00:07:15,960 --> 00:07:19,880
Speaker 2: director to the West Bank and Gaza. He knows about

138
00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:24,560
Speaker 2: this firsthand, former senior advisor to President Obama, special envoy

139
00:07:24,840 --> 00:07:26,960
Speaker 2: from Middle East. Piece David, it's great to see you.

140
00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:29,520
Speaker 2: Thank you for coming to talk to us today on Bloomberg.

141
00:07:29,960 --> 00:07:31,960
Speaker 2: Is this going to be a major story and in

142
00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:34,160
Speaker 2: a bad way in a couple of weeks when this

143
00:07:34,320 --> 00:07:37,760
Speaker 2: temporary peer is within range?

144
00:07:38,400 --> 00:07:38,880
Speaker 6: It could be.

145
00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:43,239
Speaker 7: I mean it could be, but I like the peer,

146
00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:46,280
Speaker 7: and I may be one of the few humanitarians or

147
00:07:46,400 --> 00:07:50,560
Speaker 7: the one of a few military strategists who does what

148
00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:54,240
Speaker 7: we ultimately need to do. And just look at this

149
00:07:54,280 --> 00:07:58,360
Speaker 7: from an economics perspective, what needs to happen is that

150
00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:02,080
Speaker 7: all crossings need to be open as much as possible

151
00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:06,040
Speaker 7: on a most predictable basis, with as much food flooding

152
00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:07,200
Speaker 7: the market as possible.

153
00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:08,200
Speaker 8: If you are.

154
00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:13,360
Speaker 7: Able to open multiple entry points, then no one entry

155
00:08:13,400 --> 00:08:17,720
Speaker 7: point becomes is that particularly important? And so you know,

156
00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:21,680
Speaker 7: first and foremost the land crossings need to work, they

157
00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:24,960
Speaker 7: need to work more robustly, and that would be in

158
00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:27,680
Speaker 7: the north areas and cum Schlom in the south, and

159
00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:28,680
Speaker 7: then Rafa.

160
00:08:28,640 --> 00:08:29,840
Speaker 8: On the Egyptian border.

161
00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:31,640
Speaker 7: But if you were able to also get a peer

162
00:08:31,640 --> 00:08:34,200
Speaker 7: going in, then you might actually be able to flood

163
00:08:34,360 --> 00:08:38,360
Speaker 7: the zone with more food, more basic commodities, lowering the price,

164
00:08:38,520 --> 00:08:40,559
Speaker 7: lowering the risk, lowering the chaos.

165
00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:45,080
Speaker 6: But it's true the peer is a potential target.

166
00:08:47,040 --> 00:08:51,000
Speaker 2: Of course, ill conceived from the start, is how Senator

167
00:08:51,120 --> 00:08:56,600
Speaker 2: Roger Wicker, Senate Armed Service Committee's ranking member here, this

168
00:08:56,720 --> 00:09:00,560
Speaker 2: is becoming a political issue to what extent and will

169
00:09:00,559 --> 00:09:05,080
Speaker 2: its success resonate here in Washington. It's success or not

170
00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:06,240
Speaker 2: on a political level.

171
00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:10,520
Speaker 7: I mean, clearly a failure is going to accrue to

172
00:09:10,559 --> 00:09:14,760
Speaker 7: Biden just like a success would. I disagree though with

173
00:09:14,840 --> 00:09:17,199
Speaker 7: the notion that's an ill conceived idea.

174
00:09:17,480 --> 00:09:22,240
Speaker 8: I mean I like it another for a geopolitical reason,

175
00:09:22,640 --> 00:09:23,920
Speaker 8: which is look.

176
00:09:24,080 --> 00:09:26,760
Speaker 7: Facts on the ground matter in the Middle East, and

177
00:09:26,880 --> 00:09:30,160
Speaker 7: the Israelis are masters that are having facts on the ground,

178
00:09:30,280 --> 00:09:34,160
Speaker 7: whether it's settlements or checkpoints or roads in the West

179
00:09:34,200 --> 00:09:38,440
Speaker 7: Bank or whatever. The Palestinians never get facts on the ground.

180
00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:42,120
Speaker 7: Putting a peer that would take basic commodities, that would

181
00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:46,720
Speaker 7: allow for basic commodity imports is a fact in their favor.

182
00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:49,200
Speaker 8: The Israelis control.

183
00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:52,400
Speaker 7: That maritime zone, so let's be real crystal clear about that.

184
00:09:52,679 --> 00:09:57,240
Speaker 7: They've controlled it for the last fifteen years and they've

185
00:09:57,240 --> 00:09:58,440
Speaker 7: been able to lock it down.

186
00:09:58,480 --> 00:10:00,480
Speaker 6: It doesn't mean that they couldn't an.

187
00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:04,080
Speaker 8: Attack, of course they could. But back to my bigger point, right,

188
00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:05,520
Speaker 8: if there.

189
00:10:05,360 --> 00:10:08,680
Speaker 7: Are more crossings, and again let's talk about land crossings,

190
00:10:09,080 --> 00:10:13,840
Speaker 7: then there is then no one particular access point is

191
00:10:13,920 --> 00:10:14,719
Speaker 7: that important.

192
00:10:15,080 --> 00:10:16,839
Speaker 6: So if the pier is the only way to get

193
00:10:16,880 --> 00:10:18,160
Speaker 6: basic commodities in.

194
00:10:18,160 --> 00:10:19,199
Speaker 8: It's going to be attacked.

195
00:10:19,360 --> 00:10:21,600
Speaker 6: If the pier is one of five different ways of

196
00:10:21,640 --> 00:10:24,880
Speaker 6: getting basic commodities in, it doesn't matter so much.

197
00:10:26,400 --> 00:10:30,200
Speaker 2: What's your worry right now, Dave? When you see headlines

198
00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:34,800
Speaker 2: like Israel stepping up cross border strikes on Hesbola to

199
00:10:34,880 --> 00:10:38,840
Speaker 2: the north, the early stages, it seems of an invasion

200
00:10:39,040 --> 00:10:41,560
Speaker 2: of Rafa. What is it that keeps you up at

201
00:10:41,640 --> 00:10:44,800
Speaker 2: night right now when we're in such a tenuous moment

202
00:10:44,840 --> 00:10:46,640
Speaker 2: in our relationship with Israel.

203
00:10:48,040 --> 00:10:49,079
Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean.

204
00:10:49,200 --> 00:10:56,080
Speaker 7: The Israeli Iranian play seems to have stabilized for the moment, Okay,

205
00:10:56,120 --> 00:10:57,520
Speaker 7: and that's good.

206
00:10:57,840 --> 00:11:00,840
Speaker 6: I mean you should expect continued has bull of strikes.

207
00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:04,959
Speaker 7: The thing that really deeply worries me is the famine risk,

208
00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:08,560
Speaker 7: and you know, and that would include an attack on

209
00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:14,880
Speaker 7: Rafa that just exacerbates to humanitarian catastrophe. The Israelis are

210
00:11:15,360 --> 00:11:20,600
Speaker 7: great at saying, well, we've killed thirteen thousand Hamas fighters,

211
00:11:20,920 --> 00:11:23,679
Speaker 7: we're ahead of the game, and there's only four battalions

212
00:11:23,800 --> 00:11:24,760
Speaker 7: left in Rafa.

213
00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:27,520
Speaker 6: You know, that all may be true, and it also

214
00:11:27,559 --> 00:11:31,320
Speaker 6: may be immterial, because what we don't know is maybe.

215
00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:34,920
Speaker 7: They've killed thirteen thousand Hamas fighters, but fifty thousand.

216
00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:37,760
Speaker 6: People have lined up the joint and perhaps they're not

217
00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:38,920
Speaker 6: as trained.

218
00:11:39,679 --> 00:11:43,120
Speaker 7: Or they're not as sophisticated, but the pipeline is open.

219
00:11:43,280 --> 00:11:46,640
Speaker 6: That very well could be the case. Further, I think the.

220
00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:51,400
Speaker 8: Israelis have really lost in the pr war.

221
00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:54,800
Speaker 7: And so look, Hamas is a terrorist organization and they

222
00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:56,520
Speaker 7: have killed Americans.

223
00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:00,960
Speaker 6: And yet you know, for right a wrong, and in

224
00:12:00,960 --> 00:12:01,560
Speaker 6: a sense.

225
00:12:01,360 --> 00:12:03,920
Speaker 8: It doesn't matter for this point, for.

226
00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:09,080
Speaker 7: Right or wrong, the American college campuses are ablaze with

227
00:12:09,160 --> 00:12:10,240
Speaker 7: Hamas supporters.

228
00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:15,280
Speaker 9: Now, that just goes to show you that after more

229
00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:18,920
Speaker 9: than six months of fighting, Disraelies may not.

230
00:12:18,840 --> 00:12:23,560
Speaker 7: Have degraded the elements of Hamas sufficiently enough to defeat them.

231
00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:25,800
Speaker 6: And they may never do that. And so when you

232
00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:26,440
Speaker 6: add in.

233
00:12:26,520 --> 00:12:30,400
Speaker 9: The risk of famine, which I think the administration has

234
00:12:30,440 --> 00:12:35,840
Speaker 9: already said is ongoing, then you're just looking at generations

235
00:12:35,880 --> 00:12:39,360
Speaker 9: of grievances and the sons and the grandsons, and the

236
00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:42,200
Speaker 9: daughters and the granddaughters that the current fighters are going

237
00:12:42,240 --> 00:12:43,080
Speaker 9: to be fighting again.

238
00:12:43,679 --> 00:12:48,080
Speaker 8: None of this occrues to the US Benefit day.

239
00:12:48,080 --> 00:12:50,920
Speaker 2: If I only have a minute left, if you were

240
00:12:51,120 --> 00:12:53,840
Speaker 2: still in your role as a senior advisor to the president,

241
00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:56,720
Speaker 2: would you tell him to address these young people on

242
00:12:56,760 --> 00:12:57,880
Speaker 2: campuses directly?

243
00:13:00,520 --> 00:13:03,920
Speaker 7: I mean, the election is pretty profound for America, and

244
00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:09,720
Speaker 7: it's important that in my view, you know that Gaza

245
00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:12,400
Speaker 7: is put in the context of a whole array of

246
00:13:12,559 --> 00:13:17,240
Speaker 7: issues that are consuming America at the moment, and you

247
00:13:17,280 --> 00:13:19,640
Speaker 7: know he's not going to win in a debate on

248
00:13:19,840 --> 00:13:23,880
Speaker 7: you know, at Columbia for sure, but to engage and

249
00:13:23,920 --> 00:13:31,280
Speaker 7: to understand h and to understand the legitimate aspirations of

250
00:13:31,280 --> 00:13:33,440
Speaker 7: the Palestinian people too right, I mean.

251
00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:35,880
Speaker 6: We could be on the wrong side.

252
00:13:36,040 --> 00:13:37,160
Speaker 8: Let's be clear about this.

253
00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:39,079
Speaker 6: The Palestinians are going to get a state.

254
00:13:39,160 --> 00:13:40,200
Speaker 8: We just blocked them.

255
00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:41,679
Speaker 7: In the u n you know, are We're going to

256
00:13:41,760 --> 00:13:47,160
Speaker 7: block them forever because because this will propel terrorism and

257
00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:48,800
Speaker 7: and it's a fundamental risk.

258
00:13:48,640 --> 00:13:49,840
Speaker 8: To his election campaign.

259
00:13:49,920 --> 00:13:53,560
Speaker 6: So yeah, I think he's he's really facing kind.

260
00:13:53,400 --> 00:13:59,640
Speaker 7: Of an ambiguity, is strategic ambiguity with no clear path forward,

261
00:13:59,760 --> 00:14:04,120
Speaker 7: and I I feel like he's at pretty profound risk geopolitically,

262
00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:07,960
Speaker 7: national security wise, daplastically.

263
00:14:07,400 --> 00:14:09,520
Speaker 4: And David, I'm sorry I don't have more time for you.

264
00:14:09,640 --> 00:14:12,360
Speaker 2: David Harden. Come sit with us in studio next time.

265
00:14:12,400 --> 00:14:14,360
Speaker 2: It's great to have you with us. I'm Joe Matthew.

266
00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:15,480
Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg.

267
00:14:18,760 --> 00:14:22,120
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

268
00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:25,120
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple CarPlay and

269
00:14:25,160 --> 00:14:27,960
Speaker 1: thenroyd Oto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also

270
00:14:28,040 --> 00:14:31,520
Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.

271
00:14:31,920 --> 00:14:36,000
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

272
00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:39,600
Speaker 10: I'm Kaylee lines alongside Joe Matthew live in Washington, d C.

273
00:14:39,760 --> 00:14:41,720
Speaker 10: Where we know President Biden always tries to put a

274
00:14:41,760 --> 00:14:45,240
Speaker 10: positive spin on economic data when we get it. For

275
00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:46,960
Speaker 10: a while, Joe, it did seem that the data was

276
00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:50,000
Speaker 10: trending more in the favor of an incumbent president, with

277
00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:52,720
Speaker 10: growth in the labor market hanging in their inflation was cooling.

278
00:14:52,760 --> 00:14:55,640
Speaker 10: It feels that maybe that is happening to a lesser

279
00:14:55,720 --> 00:14:57,840
Speaker 10: degree now. It wasn't too hot today, but it was

280
00:14:57,880 --> 00:15:00,960
Speaker 10: still slightly hot, hotter than expected at least one of

281
00:15:00,960 --> 00:15:01,800
Speaker 10: the metrics, And.

282
00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:06,080
Speaker 2: There's thoughts that revisions could be a greater problem as

283
00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:09,480
Speaker 2: we seem to be stuck here. If plateauing is the

284
00:15:09,480 --> 00:15:11,560
Speaker 2: word to use, I'm not sure. I guess that's better

285
00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:15,160
Speaker 2: than continuing to rise. But Anna Wong is with us

286
00:15:15,160 --> 00:15:18,040
Speaker 2: from Bloomberg Economics for her take is Anna is frequently

287
00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:21,280
Speaker 2: the contrarian on some of these issues and not always

288
00:15:21,320 --> 00:15:24,200
Speaker 2: in line with the conventional wisdom on Wall Street.

289
00:15:24,480 --> 00:15:26,360
Speaker 4: Good to see you, Anna, Does this.

290
00:15:26,320 --> 00:15:29,040
Speaker 2: Confirm the fears that so many people had yesterday because

291
00:15:29,040 --> 00:15:32,000
Speaker 2: it's really being kind of snuffed out by strong earnings

292
00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:33,840
Speaker 2: and a different attitude today.

293
00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:34,040
Speaker 7: In the market.

294
00:15:34,120 --> 00:15:37,120
Speaker 11: Yeah, it's actually better than what people feared yesterday. I

295
00:15:37,160 --> 00:15:39,440
Speaker 11: was here in this program yesterday and I said that

296
00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:44,600
Speaker 11: the Wall Street was reacting to yesterday's GDP implied inflation,

297
00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:47,920
Speaker 11: thinking that today they're going to see core PCEE going

298
00:15:47,920 --> 00:15:51,240
Speaker 11: at zero point four to eight. Instead, we got zero

299
00:15:51,240 --> 00:15:54,200
Speaker 11: point three to two, which was what we in line

300
00:15:54,240 --> 00:15:56,440
Speaker 11: with what we were expecting yesterday. And this is why

301
00:15:56,680 --> 00:15:58,840
Speaker 11: today we see that two year yields and the ten

302
00:15:58,920 --> 00:16:02,560
Speaker 11: year yields actually came down because it's not as bad

303
00:16:02,600 --> 00:16:05,600
Speaker 11: as still it's uncomfortably hot.

304
00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:07,880
Speaker 10: Well, and I guess that kind of brings us to

305
00:16:07,920 --> 00:16:10,760
Speaker 10: this question as to whether or not not being as

306
00:16:10,800 --> 00:16:13,880
Speaker 10: bad as it could have been makes it really good

307
00:16:13,920 --> 00:16:16,760
Speaker 10: news if you're the Federal Reserve thinking about how tight

308
00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:19,600
Speaker 10: policy is going to need to stay for how much longer,

309
00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:22,440
Speaker 10: if you're a market wondering when the Fed is going

310
00:16:22,480 --> 00:16:25,520
Speaker 10: to be making those decisions that they can ease policy. Ultimately,

311
00:16:25,560 --> 00:16:28,440
Speaker 10: this doesn't really change what we thought yesterday in terms

312
00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:29,200
Speaker 10: of what the Fed will do.

313
00:16:29,280 --> 00:16:32,760
Speaker 11: Right, Yeah, exactly, Kelly. So the big picture is that

314
00:16:32,840 --> 00:16:36,680
Speaker 11: inflation is stickier than the FED wants. And next week

315
00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:40,000
Speaker 11: we're gonna have Powell probably coming out to make a

316
00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:43,600
Speaker 11: big hawkish pivot. And the reason why we expect that

317
00:16:43,680 --> 00:16:46,920
Speaker 11: big hawkish pivot from Powell next week is that, you know,

318
00:16:47,040 --> 00:16:50,400
Speaker 11: the other day one of the most dubvish member of

319
00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:54,440
Speaker 11: the FOMC, Austin Goilsby, said that the FED will have

320
00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:58,720
Speaker 11: to recalibrate the strategy. So if even the most hawkish

321
00:16:58,800 --> 00:17:01,200
Speaker 11: member said they need to reac calibrate, it means that

322
00:17:01,200 --> 00:17:04,480
Speaker 11: the whole committee is likely going to signal something big

323
00:17:04,560 --> 00:17:05,000
Speaker 11: next week.

324
00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:06,119
Speaker 4: Wow. Fascinating.

325
00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:08,960
Speaker 2: So the news conference, if not the statement itself, the

326
00:17:09,080 --> 00:17:12,600
Speaker 2: language might change in the statement. What would be j

327
00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:15,600
Speaker 2: Powell's posture here, because he seems to have gotten to

328
00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:18,480
Speaker 2: the point where he wanted to to convince the markets

329
00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:20,080
Speaker 2: that we're not cutting anytime soon.

330
00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:24,480
Speaker 11: Yeah. I think Powell could even briefly hinted that maybe

331
00:17:24,560 --> 00:17:27,879
Speaker 11: they won't cut rates and in fact a rate hike

332
00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:30,600
Speaker 11: could be an option on the table. I think that

333
00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:32,760
Speaker 11: would be enough to send the market.

334
00:17:33,200 --> 00:17:33,840
Speaker 4: We'll go over well.

335
00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:37,760
Speaker 10: Yeah, all right. Anamal, chief US economist at Bloomberg Economic,

336
00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:39,360
Speaker 10: has been a busy couple days for you and it's

337
00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:41,600
Speaker 10: certainly going to be busy next week. Thank you so

338
00:17:41,720 --> 00:17:44,760
Speaker 10: much as always, and of course, Joe, as we've discussed

339
00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:46,919
Speaker 10: on this program in the last several weeks, Joe Biden

340
00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:49,720
Speaker 10: has not actually proven that reluctant to talk about FED

341
00:17:49,760 --> 00:17:53,600
Speaker 10: policy recently, standing by his idea that the FED will

342
00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:56,680
Speaker 10: cut at least once this year, maybe just a month delayed.

343
00:17:56,680 --> 00:17:59,320
Speaker 4: In his word, we planned back that sape.

344
00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:00,720
Speaker 10: Well, yeah, I guess.

345
00:18:00,520 --> 00:18:01,159
Speaker 4: We'll see about that.

346
00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:03,399
Speaker 10: And we know that Donald Trump and his administration was

347
00:18:03,640 --> 00:18:05,080
Speaker 10: very vocal about.

348
00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:06,720
Speaker 4: What the federating at him every day. You see this

349
00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:07,760
Speaker 4: Wall Street Donald story.

350
00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:12,560
Speaker 2: Yes, indeed the Trump administration if there's another reshaping the FED.

351
00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:15,440
Speaker 2: They're talking about allies of Donald Trump though, they're having

352
00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:18,400
Speaker 2: these meetings about how they could sort of dismantle things

353
00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:21,720
Speaker 2: and have the president himself for herself play a role

354
00:18:21,760 --> 00:18:24,359
Speaker 2: in sending interest rates. But I wonder if Donald Trump

355
00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:26,680
Speaker 2: himself is involved in those conversations. The story didn't seem

356
00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:29,119
Speaker 2: to indicate knowledge, So we'll look.

357
00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:31,040
Speaker 10: For more clarity that we might not be getting it

358
00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:32,800
Speaker 10: today because Donald Trump is a bit tied up at

359
00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:35,159
Speaker 10: the moment. He is in court in New York in

360
00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:37,280
Speaker 10: the hush money case where David Pecker is being cross

361
00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:40,840
Speaker 10: examined on the stand. It seems that his defense teams

362
00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:43,600
Speaker 10: trying to make it trying to make the case that

363
00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:45,920
Speaker 10: David Pecker was not just trying to help Trump politically,

364
00:18:45,960 --> 00:18:50,840
Speaker 10: but potentially help the playboy model in question, Karen McDougal

365
00:18:51,119 --> 00:18:54,040
Speaker 10: reset her career. So that is where we begin now

366
00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:56,360
Speaker 10: with Dave Ehrenberg, who's the state attorney down Palm Beach.

367
00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:58,679
Speaker 10: We always love to have Dave on the show. Welcome

368
00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:01,480
Speaker 10: back to Balance Power on TV and radio. Dave, just

369
00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:04,600
Speaker 10: walk us through how you are reading the days of

370
00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:08,080
Speaker 10: testimony that we have seen thus far from mister Pecker,

371
00:19:08,359 --> 00:19:10,400
Speaker 10: and how you think the case is going so far

372
00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:12,760
Speaker 10: for the defense on the one hand, for prosecutors on

373
00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:13,080
Speaker 10: the other.

374
00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:15,520
Speaker 12: Well, it's great to be back with you. I think

375
00:19:15,520 --> 00:19:19,600
Speaker 12: it's going well for prosecutors because Pecker is able to

376
00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:23,320
Speaker 12: corroborate Michael Cohen's story that he will tell. And Michael

377
00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:28,120
Speaker 12: Cohen has been a very important but flawed witness because

378
00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:31,320
Speaker 12: he had a prior conviction for perjury among other things,

379
00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:33,359
Speaker 12: even though he was lying on behalf of Donald Trump.

380
00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:36,040
Speaker 12: But it's important to get corroboration and Packer was part

381
00:19:36,040 --> 00:19:38,640
Speaker 12: of Trump's inner circle during his campaign, and the key

382
00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:41,160
Speaker 12: for Pecker is also to set the stage for what

383
00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:43,480
Speaker 12: was going on. This wasn't a one off, This wasn't

384
00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:45,960
Speaker 12: a one time deal with Stormy Daniels. This was a

385
00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:50,439
Speaker 12: coordinated effort to catch and kill stories that would be

386
00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:54,040
Speaker 12: damaging to Donald Trump for the sake of his election.

387
00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:57,040
Speaker 12: It was done right before the election. There was a

388
00:19:57,119 --> 00:20:00,480
Speaker 12: non disclosure agreement with that doorman that expired right after

389
00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:03,080
Speaker 12: the election. There was the payment to Stormy Daniels two

390
00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:06,280
Speaker 12: weeks before the election. So this also undercuts Donald Trump's

391
00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:09,040
Speaker 12: certain defense that this wasn't for the election. This was

392
00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:11,960
Speaker 12: just to help Trump with his wife Milanya to keep

393
00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:14,960
Speaker 12: this stuff secret. So it was to protect his marriage. No,

394
00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:19,119
Speaker 12: Pecker exposes the falsity of that, because it was, according

395
00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:21,159
Speaker 12: to his testimony, all about the election.

396
00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:24,960
Speaker 4: So, David, it's great to have you. Good to see you.

397
00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:26,679
Speaker 4: When are we getting a ruling on this gag order?

398
00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:28,040
Speaker 4: We have to wait for another hearing.

399
00:20:28,080 --> 00:20:31,879
Speaker 2: We thought we had a hearing, but then I guess

400
00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:34,920
Speaker 2: five more violations since then. It almost seems like a strategy.

401
00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:37,880
Speaker 2: As long as Donald Trump continues to violate the gag order,

402
00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:39,280
Speaker 2: they'll never be able to enforce it.

403
00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:40,640
Speaker 4: Yeah.

404
00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:43,320
Speaker 12: Donald Trump supporters say that he's being treated differently than

405
00:20:43,359 --> 00:20:45,439
Speaker 12: everyone else, and I agree, but not for the reasons

406
00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:49,600
Speaker 12: they say. I think he's being treated better than others, because, Joe,

407
00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:52,600
Speaker 12: if you and I were out there bashing the judge

408
00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:57,199
Speaker 12: and violating his orders, we would be locked up yesterday.

409
00:20:57,240 --> 00:20:59,000
Speaker 12: I mean, we would be wearing an orange jumpsuit and

410
00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:01,920
Speaker 12: steel bracelets. But Donald Trump is able to do these

411
00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:05,560
Speaker 12: things because judges don't want to appear political and they

412
00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:08,440
Speaker 12: want to show their even handed so they bend over

413
00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:11,800
Speaker 12: backwards to give him the deference, the grace to continue

414
00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:14,280
Speaker 12: doing this, and at most he'll get hit with the fine.

415
00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:17,200
Speaker 12: Do not expect that he will be incarcerated pre trial

416
00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:19,280
Speaker 12: because of his words, no matter what he says.

417
00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:23,200
Speaker 10: Okay, well, what about post trial, Dave? I mean, ultimately,

418
00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:26,440
Speaker 10: when we're considering the very jury going to decide whether

419
00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:28,760
Speaker 10: or not to convict him of these charges. These are

420
00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:31,960
Speaker 10: felony charges, thirty four of them, maximum penalty of four

421
00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:34,600
Speaker 10: years in prison for a class E felony. Do you

422
00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:38,160
Speaker 10: think realistically that will ever happen, that we would see

423
00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:39,439
Speaker 10: Donald Trump behind bars?

424
00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:44,000
Speaker 12: Unlikely? I think he would get either probation, which he's

425
00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:47,200
Speaker 12: eligible for there is no mandatory minimum with these charges,

426
00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:50,000
Speaker 12: or perhaps he gets some version of house arrests. I

427
00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:52,920
Speaker 12: cannot envision the Secret Service taking up shop in the

428
00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:56,240
Speaker 12: cell next to Donald Trump in New York, especially because

429
00:21:56,680 --> 00:21:59,240
Speaker 12: this case, although I do think the prosecution is a

430
00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:02,520
Speaker 12: good case, on appeal, it could get a little shaky

431
00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:06,760
Speaker 12: because there's some uncharted territory here legally speaking as to

432
00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:10,560
Speaker 12: whether you can use the second statute, which appears to

433
00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:14,680
Speaker 12: be a state election conspiracy statute, to elevate a state

434
00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:18,560
Speaker 12: misdemeanor to a state felony when that other statute involves

435
00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:22,680
Speaker 12: campaign finance stuff, And can the state regulate campaign finance

436
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:25,840
Speaker 12: when that's a federal election. Wouldn't they be preempted by

437
00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:28,080
Speaker 12: federal law? These are the kind of arguments that Trump's

438
00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:30,639
Speaker 12: lawyers will be certain to make on appeal, and I

439
00:22:30,640 --> 00:22:32,879
Speaker 12: think Trump has a better chance on appeal than he

440
00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:36,040
Speaker 12: has in this current trial, where I think it's probable

441
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:38,240
Speaker 12: he's going to be found guilty.

442
00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:40,160
Speaker 4: Fascinating Dave.

443
00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:42,960
Speaker 2: I was talking to June Grosso a little bit earlier

444
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:48,400
Speaker 2: about the security that's afforded the witnesses high profile witnesses

445
00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:51,440
Speaker 2: like Michael Cohen and Stormy Daniels. This is going to

446
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:53,520
Speaker 2: take a whole take on a whole new look and

447
00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:57,040
Speaker 2: feel when we see these two individuals specifically, and I'd

448
00:22:57,080 --> 00:23:00,160
Speaker 2: say even most, especially Stormy Daniels taking the stand, and

449
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:02,440
Speaker 2: it's going to be here a pin drop. The kind

450
00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:05,560
Speaker 2: of stories that she's going to be telling will be explosive.

451
00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:09,080
Speaker 2: It's one thing to be in the courthouse. What kind

452
00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:11,520
Speaker 2: of security are they afforded while they're in New York

453
00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:12,760
Speaker 2: for this whole experience.

454
00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:18,280
Speaker 12: Well, the security would be pretty much their own that

455
00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:20,120
Speaker 12: if they would have to come up with I don't

456
00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 12: see that none. Yeah, the prosecutors will take care of

457
00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:27,639
Speaker 12: them while they're testifying and around the time they're going

458
00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:30,200
Speaker 12: to the courthouse back and forth. But after it's over,

459
00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:33,200
Speaker 12: after they testifier, before it's up to them. And that's

460
00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:34,920
Speaker 12: the scary thing. That's why you have a gag order,

461
00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:38,280
Speaker 12: because you don't want Trump to rile up his very

462
00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:41,480
Speaker 12: aggressive masses. He's got some real hardcore supporters who will

463
00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:45,160
Speaker 12: show up at Barack Obama's Georgetown condo with a van

464
00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:48,199
Speaker 12: full of guns and ammunition after Trump docks is the

465
00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 12: former president so we've seen this before. We saw it

466
00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:53,919
Speaker 12: on January sixth. So yeah, it's your right to be

467
00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:56,280
Speaker 12: concerned about their safety. And that's why the judge should

468
00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:59,359
Speaker 12: enforce these gag orders more strictly, because you don't want

469
00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:01,520
Speaker 12: him tempting to tamper with witnesses.

470
00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:05,920
Speaker 10: Well, on the subject of witnesses, Dave, it's also worth

471
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:08,520
Speaker 10: pointing out that Donald Trump is indicated he may testify

472
00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:10,840
Speaker 10: in his own defense at some point, not just other

473
00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:15,639
Speaker 10: witnesses that will take the stand. If you were on

474
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 10: the prosecution team or on the defense team, how would

475
00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:22,639
Speaker 10: you feel about Donald trump testimony As these trial weeks

476
00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:22,960
Speaker 10: go on.

477
00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:27,400
Speaker 12: There is zero chance that Donald Trump will be taking

478
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:29,600
Speaker 12: the stand. I know he's saying he's going to, but

479
00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:32,600
Speaker 12: that's for public consumption. That's for the benefit of his

480
00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:35,720
Speaker 12: team of his supporters, so that they say, yes, he's

481
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:37,280
Speaker 12: got nothing to high and then I'll find a reason

482
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:40,040
Speaker 12: why he's not taking the stand. If he takes the stand,

483
00:24:40,359 --> 00:24:43,399
Speaker 12: he's subject to a withering cross examination. He'll have to

484
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:47,040
Speaker 12: deal with the embarrassing details of the Stormy Daniels relationship,

485
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:49,480
Speaker 12: and he'll have all the stuff that's going to come

486
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:52,600
Speaker 12: in about for example, the civil fraud trial that he

487
00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:56,080
Speaker 12: was just found guilty of up there in New York.

488
00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:58,199
Speaker 12: I mean things that will embarrass him he will not

489
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:00,639
Speaker 12: want to respond to. And if he'd he does respond

490
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:04,240
Speaker 12: and lies, he could be charged for that. So he'd

491
00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:07,719
Speaker 12: be walking into a perjury trap. His lawyers will not

492
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:10,560
Speaker 12: let him take the stand. Donald Trump knows better. Right now,

493
00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:13,280
Speaker 12: it's all bluster. Don't believe the hype.

494
00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:16,800
Speaker 2: Who's the slam dunk in our remaining moment here, Dave,

495
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:20,400
Speaker 2: Who's the slam dunk witness? They've been trying very hard

496
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:23,240
Speaker 2: to discredit Michael Cohen? Is it Stormy Daniels herself?

497
00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 12: No, I'm gonna go off the board here. It's not

498
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:30,280
Speaker 12: Stormy Daniels, not Karen mcdom, not Michael Cohen. They're all

499
00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:32,399
Speaker 12: They're all important witnesses, but they have somewhat of an

500
00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 12: acc of grind. You know who doesn't have an acc

501
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:39,399
Speaker 12: of grind? Joe Hope Hicks. Hope Hicks was in the

502
00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:41,920
Speaker 12: room where it happened. She was on Air Force one

503
00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:44,640
Speaker 12: steaming his clothes while Trump was still wearing them. I mean,

504
00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:48,120
Speaker 12: she's privy to a lot of private conversations, and she's

505
00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:50,920
Speaker 12: a Trump loyalist and she cooperated with the grand jury.

506
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 12: She's gonna be brought in for corroborations. That's gonna be

507
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:56,480
Speaker 12: musty TV, even though there are no cameras in the courtroom.

508
00:25:56,880 --> 00:25:59,080
Speaker 12: But at least maybe people can watch us talk about

509
00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:01,720
Speaker 12: it afterwards, because is when Trump sees one of his

510
00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:06,040
Speaker 12: most loyal aids up there to corroborate Michael Cohen's testimony.

511
00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:08,719
Speaker 12: I think that's going to be the big thing, So

512
00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:09,360
Speaker 12: watch for that.

513
00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:13,639
Speaker 4: Incredible. It's always great to have Dave Ahrenberg. Good to

514
00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 4: see you. Dave. Let us know when you're back in town.

515
00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:21,240
Speaker 2: He's Palm Beach County State Attorney, reinforcing the drama, Kayley

516
00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 2: in this case that typically does not need a lot

517
00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:27,240
Speaker 2: of reinforcement. If there's one thing we have in ample supply,

518
00:26:27,359 --> 00:26:28,600
Speaker 2: it's the drama in New.

519
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:31,119
Speaker 10: York, certainly, and some of that is brought in and

520
00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 10: out of the courtroom in front of the cameras. When

521
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:35,080
Speaker 10: Donald Trump speaks. We did hear from him, by the

522
00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:37,680
Speaker 10: way earlier today, because it's not just a trial day

523
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 10: for Donald Trump, it's also his wife's birthday. This is

524
00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:41,440
Speaker 10: what he said about that.

525
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:47,600
Speaker 9: I want to start by wishing my wife Malania, very

526
00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:48,360
Speaker 9: happy birthday.

527
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 8: He nice to be with her, but I'm at a

528
00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:55,320
Speaker 8: court house for a rig drive. Terrible, but we're doing

529
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:56,639
Speaker 8: very well in this rig drift.

530
00:26:56,920 --> 00:27:00,720
Speaker 4: Everybody knows yesterday was a big day, but I.

531
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:04,280
Speaker 6: Do have to begin my wishing happy birthday.

532
00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:10,280
Speaker 2: Happy birthday, so the former First Lady, who we don't

533
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:13,000
Speaker 2: see very often with Donald Trump, but nice of him

534
00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:16,159
Speaker 2: to mention Milania as we assembled our panel, just for

535
00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:18,479
Speaker 2: a couple of minutes here, want to have Rick Davis

536
00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 2: and Jeanie Shanzeo each take a swing at what we

537
00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:23,200
Speaker 2: heard and we'll have a deeper dive coming up here

538
00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:27,080
Speaker 2: on balance of power, our signature panel with us, Rick,

539
00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:29,840
Speaker 2: what do you think after hearing from Dave Ehrenberg and

540
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:32,159
Speaker 2: what we're about to experience the next couple of weeks

541
00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:35,159
Speaker 2: for someone who's trying to be elected again to the

542
00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:35,600
Speaker 2: White House.

543
00:27:36,880 --> 00:27:40,840
Speaker 13: Yeah, I can't even fathom the campaign disarray around having

544
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 13: your candidates sitting in the courthouse, you know, four days

545
00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:47,600
Speaker 13: a week with Wednesdays off, and trying to beat out

546
00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:51,800
Speaker 13: some kind of message each day. It's it's just intolerable

547
00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:54,639
Speaker 13: and there's no good news coming out of this right

548
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:57,040
Speaker 13: you'd have to dig for the pony to find a

549
00:27:57,040 --> 00:27:59,600
Speaker 13: positive news story out of these trials.

550
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:03,199
Speaker 10: Happening right now for him, well, Genie Rick mentions he's

551
00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:04,919
Speaker 10: stuck in court four days a week. He does have

552
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:08,119
Speaker 10: Wednesdays off. Reportedly he spent this Wednesday this week his

553
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:11,560
Speaker 10: day off from court golfing at his club in Bedminster.

554
00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:13,720
Speaker 10: So what do we do with that information?

555
00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:18,440
Speaker 14: Yeah, we thought maybe they'd sneak in a campaign event.

556
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:22,199
Speaker 14: They did not. You know, it's fascinating to me to

557
00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:25,320
Speaker 14: hear him wish you a happy birthday to his wife,

558
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:28,200
Speaker 14: the former First Lady, Happy birthday, but then he slips

559
00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:30,920
Speaker 14: right in there to calling the trial rigged, rigged, rigged.

560
00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:35,040
Speaker 14: He simply cannot control himself or help himself, and he's

561
00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:39,360
Speaker 14: walking dangerously close to more and more violations of this

562
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 14: gag order, which we still don't have a ruling on

563
00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:44,760
Speaker 14: by the judge. And all of this makes it not

564
00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:47,520
Speaker 14: just a headache for the campaign, which is big, but

565
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:50,960
Speaker 14: for his attorneys as well. I mean, we don't even

566
00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:54,640
Speaker 14: know the next witnesses because he's constantly attacking them. The

567
00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:57,720
Speaker 14: prosecution won't reveal the list, so it's a it's a

568
00:28:57,840 --> 00:29:01,760
Speaker 14: nightmare for everyone trying to work with it, and you know,

569
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:03,960
Speaker 14: there's not much more that they can.

570
00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 2: Do to control him, though, Jenny Shanzano and Rick Davis,

571
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:08,240
Speaker 2: We're going to have a lot more coming up with

572
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:10,280
Speaker 2: our panel. They've got to do another hearing on the

573
00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:11,720
Speaker 2: gag order, right, there's five.

574
00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:12,560
Speaker 10: More next Thursday.

575
00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:16,680
Speaker 2: Leeg's Violations. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines. I'm more

576
00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:19,040
Speaker 2: coming up a Balance of Power only on Bloomberg.

577
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:26,240
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

578
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:29,120
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play

579
00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:31,800
Speaker 1: and then roun Oo with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen

580
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:34,920
Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us

581
00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:37,360
Speaker 1: live on YouTube.

582
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:40,440
Speaker 2: A lot of New York news this week. We're here

583
00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:43,560
Speaker 2: at Washington talking about New York every day. Joe Biden there,

584
00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:46,920
Speaker 2: Donald Trump of course there in court. And there are

585
00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:51,040
Speaker 2: questions today after Joe Biden did an interview with Howard

586
00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:55,160
Speaker 2: Stern about whether we're going to see any debates at all.

587
00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:56,880
Speaker 2: This is not the first time that this has come up,

588
00:29:57,200 --> 00:29:59,440
Speaker 2: because we know that Joe Biden has questioned this. He says, well,

589
00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:02,440
Speaker 2: what you know, what if he is lying through the

590
00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:04,600
Speaker 2: whole thing. How do we manage that is the a

591
00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:07,920
Speaker 2: credible person to debate? And we also know that Republicans

592
00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:11,040
Speaker 2: have a huge problem with the Commission on Debates and

593
00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:14,080
Speaker 2: don't want any of the mainstream moderators who have been suggested.

594
00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:16,760
Speaker 10: Yeah. Well, and Donald Trump did not partake in a

595
00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:19,960
Speaker 10: single Republics from primary debate. We just saw Ron DeSantis,

596
00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:23,560
Speaker 10: Nikki Haley, and veg Ramaswami fighting it out amongst themselves

597
00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:26,120
Speaker 10: as Trump remained the front runner. So I guess we'll

598
00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:29,160
Speaker 10: see if things are different now that we're in the general.

599
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:31,760
Speaker 10: This is what President Biden had to say on the matter.

600
00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:34,720
Speaker 4: Can I tell you what fantasy I had? I don't

601
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:37,959
Speaker 4: know if you're going to debate your opponent. I am somewhere.

602
00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:39,719
Speaker 4: I don't know when I'm happy.

603
00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:44,080
Speaker 10: So that was President Biden. The voice you heard before

604
00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 10: if you're listening on radio, was Howard Stern, who was

605
00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:49,360
Speaker 10: conducting this interview. And I will conduct an interview of

606
00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:51,479
Speaker 10: our own now with Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzino. Our

607
00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:54,240
Speaker 10: signature of political panel are with us. So, Genie, is

608
00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 10: this a good idea for Biden? He doesn't exactly know

609
00:30:57,720 --> 00:31:01,120
Speaker 10: where or when it seems, but he's open to it.

610
00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:06,080
Speaker 14: Yeah, I mean, this was fascinating. Apparently this was an

611
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:08,840
Speaker 14: unscheduled or at least I shouldn't say on scheduled, unannounced

612
00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:11,440
Speaker 14: stop in New York. He's in New York today and

613
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:13,880
Speaker 14: you know, even the White House press pool didn't know

614
00:31:13,960 --> 00:31:16,280
Speaker 14: he was going too serious to do this interview. He

615
00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:19,200
Speaker 14: goes there and he makes news. So, you know, I

616
00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:21,720
Speaker 14: think it was a coup for the campaign in that regard.

617
00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:24,719
Speaker 14: I think it's also telling it is on Howard Stern

618
00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:29,080
Speaker 14: and obviously not you know, in a more mainstream media outlet,

619
00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:31,960
Speaker 14: but it is of course important because it's the first

620
00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 14: time we've heard the president commit to debating Donald Trump.

621
00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 14: And of course we had Donald Trump not that long

622
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:41,280
Speaker 14: ago at a rally with an empty podium talking to it,

623
00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:44,760
Speaker 14: waiting for Joe Biden to debate. So the you know,

624
00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:47,600
Speaker 14: Trump campaign has said they want to debate. Joe Biden's

625
00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:50,400
Speaker 14: ready to debate, so you know, here we go. But

626
00:31:50,560 --> 00:31:52,920
Speaker 14: you know, I also think it's a good a good

627
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:55,400
Speaker 14: thing for the campaign on Biden's part that they've been

628
00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:58,400
Speaker 14: able to get breakthrough sort of the news of the

629
00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:01,960
Speaker 14: Trump trial in this way during this trip to New York.

630
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:04,120
Speaker 14: So a good day all around for the Biden team

631
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:04,560
Speaker 14: so far.

632
00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:08,040
Speaker 2: Well, Rick Davis, we've come full circle, I guess on

633
00:32:08,080 --> 00:32:10,400
Speaker 2: a couple of matters. Howard Stern is now hanging out

634
00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:12,600
Speaker 2: with Joe Biden. I can remember when Donald Trump was

635
00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:15,800
Speaker 2: one of his favorite guests. He could come out with

636
00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:19,240
Speaker 2: a catalog of archival interviews. Some would suggest he helped

637
00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:22,240
Speaker 2: to get him elected in the first place by making

638
00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:27,200
Speaker 2: him the character that he became on that program. But

639
00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:30,240
Speaker 2: it seems like Donald Trump maybe maybe Republicans have come

640
00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:32,360
Speaker 2: full circle on the idea of debates. I thought they

641
00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:37,240
Speaker 2: had an allergy to debates on network television with mainstream

642
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:43,120
Speaker 2: media moderators, but recent reporting has suggested otherwise.

643
00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:44,840
Speaker 4: Are these two guys going to get on a stage

644
00:32:44,880 --> 00:32:45,080
Speaker 4: or not?

645
00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:49,760
Speaker 13: Yeah, I've said in that studio with Howard Stern talking

646
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 13: to John McCain about presidential ambition, and nothing made.

647
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:54,640
Speaker 8: Me more worried than that.

648
00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:58,200
Speaker 13: Our long time and frankly thing to recall, we did

649
00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:00,200
Speaker 13: it as a stop by too. We didn't tell our

650
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:03,520
Speaker 13: media pool and just went over there. So it's the

651
00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:05,240
Speaker 13: place you go to have some fun. It was a

652
00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:09,320
Speaker 13: pretty light interview, but I disagree with Jennie. If I

653
00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:11,560
Speaker 13: were sitting there and John McCain said, I commit to

654
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 13: debating my opponent, why.

655
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:14,959
Speaker 6: Would you do that.

656
00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:19,520
Speaker 13: We haven't negotiated with them yet. I've negotiated a number

657
00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:22,800
Speaker 13: of presidential debates, and if you're an incumbent, you start

658
00:33:22,800 --> 00:33:26,400
Speaker 13: out with why should I debate you? And you'll negotiate

659
00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:29,560
Speaker 13: from there. Best I can tell, Donald Trump nor the

660
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:33,040
Speaker 13: White House has agreed to the commission terms. There's a

661
00:33:33,120 --> 00:33:37,040
Speaker 13: National Commission on Presidential Debates that has already arranged times,

662
00:33:37,080 --> 00:33:39,640
Speaker 13: places and dates, and nobody has said yes to any

663
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:39,840
Speaker 13: of that.

664
00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:42,520
Speaker 4: So we're a long way.

665
00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:46,360
Speaker 13: From having an agenda where those two candidates are going

666
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:47,400
Speaker 13: to be on the stage together.

667
00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:49,400
Speaker 6: And I don't even know.

668
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:52,880
Speaker 13: I haven't seen anything in reporting that indicates that they've

669
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:57,959
Speaker 13: appointed debate negotiators and even begun that process, which is

670
00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:01,920
Speaker 13: pretty formal. You come up with a memorandum of understanding

671
00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:05,680
Speaker 13: and it governs the entire debate. So I wouldn't hold

672
00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:07,640
Speaker 13: my breath all right now if you were planning on

673
00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:08,879
Speaker 13: going to a debate right.

674
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:13,920
Speaker 10: Away, all right, reality check from wow Rick Davis. We

675
00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:17,040
Speaker 10: always appreciate it. There's also just the question of what

676
00:34:17,080 --> 00:34:19,719
Speaker 10: a debate would accomplish. I think we all remember how

677
00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:23,399
Speaker 10: debates went down in the twenty twenty matchup between these

678
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:27,520
Speaker 10: two Genie It wasn't pretty. At the risk of editorializing,

679
00:34:28,120 --> 00:34:31,840
Speaker 10: and they are now because Biden ultimately won that election.

680
00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:35,680
Speaker 10: Two presidents were talking about here the American people know them.

681
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:38,839
Speaker 10: So would a debate accomplish for either of them?

682
00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:40,879
Speaker 12: Yeah?

683
00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:44,719
Speaker 14: That debate, you know, I remember it so well myself.

684
00:34:44,760 --> 00:34:47,080
Speaker 14: It was stunning, and now we think Donald Trump had

685
00:34:47,160 --> 00:34:51,839
Speaker 14: COVID during it, potentially, you know, I still am a

686
00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:56,160
Speaker 14: believer in the debates because I do think it's important

687
00:34:56,200 --> 00:34:59,360
Speaker 14: that the American public be given the chance to see

688
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 14: the two candidates on the stage together speaking as much

689
00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:08,040
Speaker 14: as possible. There is certainly room for improvement, God knows,

690
00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:12,000
Speaker 14: but I do think it's important, and I disagree with Rick.

691
00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:17,560
Speaker 14: I think this was Joe Biden quintessential calling Donald Trump's bluff. Yeah,

692
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:19,719
Speaker 14: I'll debate you. I think the worst thing he could

693
00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:23,000
Speaker 14: have said to Howard Stern and his audience today was Oh,

694
00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:25,400
Speaker 14: I'm gonna sit back. No, you know, I'm not sure.

695
00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:26,520
Speaker 12: No, bring it on.

696
00:35:26,719 --> 00:35:29,080
Speaker 14: He can debate him, He's done it before and he

697
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:33,040
Speaker 14: has won. I can guarantee Donald Trump, who hasn't debated

698
00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:35,319
Speaker 14: this cycle yet, is going to come up with all

699
00:35:35,440 --> 00:35:38,399
Speaker 14: kinds of excuses not to be there and make it hard.

700
00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 14: The Republican Party has already stepped away from the commission.

701
00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:44,560
Speaker 14: So absolutely Joe Biden did the right thing. He's on

702
00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:47,200
Speaker 14: the right side of this, and let's see Donald Trump

703
00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:49,239
Speaker 14: come forward and agree to it. He hasn't for any

704
00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:49,719
Speaker 14: of his others.

705
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:55,320
Speaker 10: Okay, Genie, your wish maybe is Donald Trump's command because

706
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:59,319
Speaker 10: he just posted on true Social crooked Joe Biden just

707
00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:01,839
Speaker 10: announced he's willing to debate. Everyone knows he doesn't really

708
00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:05,040
Speaker 10: mean it. But in case he does, I say anywhere, anytime,

709
00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:09,440
Speaker 10: any place. It goes on after that. But I guess

710
00:36:09,600 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 10: those all caps all caps of course they are.

711
00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:13,759
Speaker 4: We'll see that all right now.

712
00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:16,120
Speaker 2: So now we've confirmed that Donald Trump does listen to

713
00:36:16,160 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 2: the program, which is interesting to me for starters. But

714
00:36:20,680 --> 00:36:23,760
Speaker 2: they're both going to act like I'm assuming they want

715
00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:27,239
Speaker 2: to debate. You're one of the first people I've heard

716
00:36:27,280 --> 00:36:29,440
Speaker 2: suggest that that will not happen.

717
00:36:29,960 --> 00:36:30,359
Speaker 4: We didn't.

718
00:36:30,440 --> 00:36:33,080
Speaker 2: To Kaylee's point, see Donald Trump in a debate once

719
00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:34,720
Speaker 2: in the primary cycle.

720
00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:38,719
Speaker 4: So will this be the debate less campaign.

721
00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:44,120
Speaker 13: Yeah, very well could be. The reality is the media

722
00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:49,160
Speaker 13: organizations and the Biden campaign having learned, as Genie points

723
00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:54,200
Speaker 13: out from two thousand and twenty, that there's no way

724
00:36:54,320 --> 00:36:58,120
Speaker 13: to actually monitor the facts that come out of Donald

725
00:36:58,120 --> 00:37:01,960
Speaker 13: Trump's mouth. I should say, messages that come out of

726
00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:06,080
Speaker 13: Donald Trump's mouth for factualness. You can't stop the debate

727
00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:08,200
Speaker 13: after every answer and say, okay, here are the things

728
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:10,879
Speaker 13: that he said that aren't true. You know, and when

729
00:37:10,920 --> 00:37:12,799
Speaker 13: you look at town halls and things like that that

730
00:37:12,920 --> 00:37:16,319
Speaker 13: CNNA has done and other outcomes, they're a disaster for

731
00:37:16,360 --> 00:37:19,680
Speaker 13: those organizations because you know, there's no way to govern

732
00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:22,279
Speaker 13: Donald Trump's behavior.

733
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:23,080
Speaker 4: And so.

734
00:37:25,120 --> 00:37:28,600
Speaker 13: Unless you have some understanding that it's going to be

735
00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:32,920
Speaker 13: a fact base endeavor, it's like taking Joe Biden and

736
00:37:32,960 --> 00:37:36,000
Speaker 13: tying both his arms behind his back because he's likely

737
00:37:36,040 --> 00:37:39,560
Speaker 13: to try and be accurate. Now, he may forget things,

738
00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:41,880
Speaker 13: and he may have other kinds of problems, but it

739
00:37:41,920 --> 00:37:44,160
Speaker 13: won't be the kind of problems Donald Trump presents to

740
00:37:44,200 --> 00:37:46,840
Speaker 13: the stage. And so if you're the Democrats, and I

741
00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:50,040
Speaker 13: know having talked to some of their political folks, this

742
00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:54,120
Speaker 13: is a real problem. Right One's fighting by Marcus at

743
00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:57,120
Speaker 13: Queensberry's rules, and the other is fighting by the bronx

744
00:37:58,280 --> 00:38:01,920
Speaker 13: bring chains and a gun. You know, I'm sorry, Joe Biden,

745
00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:04,799
Speaker 13: but that is not the way you operate. And so

746
00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:07,120
Speaker 13: why say yes to that kind of a brawl.

747
00:38:08,160 --> 00:38:10,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, you don't bring a knife to a gunfight, Jeannie.

748
00:38:11,400 --> 00:38:16,319
Speaker 2: This but this post on truth social goes further as

749
00:38:16,360 --> 00:38:20,359
Speaker 2: he concludes with let's do the debate at the courthouse

750
00:38:20,400 --> 00:38:25,480
Speaker 2: tonight on national television. I'll wait, is this kind of

751
00:38:25,520 --> 00:38:28,320
Speaker 2: goating going to be what we do all summer?

752
00:38:30,040 --> 00:38:32,520
Speaker 14: I think it will be. And of course number one,

753
00:38:32,560 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 14: of course he's listening to you too, and I'm so

754
00:38:35,239 --> 00:38:38,839
Speaker 14: glad to hear it. Over to seven point thirty one

755
00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:41,680
Speaker 14: Bloomberg and get on there. They should both debate. But

756
00:38:41,760 --> 00:38:45,200
Speaker 14: you know what I really have to say, Joe Biden

757
00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:47,040
Speaker 14: enjoys being underestimated.

758
00:38:47,440 --> 00:38:48,520
Speaker 6: He is up to this.

759
00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:52,040
Speaker 14: He will absolutely be there and be present for a debate.

760
00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:54,840
Speaker 14: Look at the last two states of the unions, he

761
00:38:55,040 --> 00:38:58,880
Speaker 14: outperformed what anybody expected. He's one person who has debated

762
00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:01,880
Speaker 14: Donald Trump and in an election, so I would not

763
00:39:02,080 --> 00:39:05,320
Speaker 14: underestimate him in this context. So bring on the brawl.

764
00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:11,160
Speaker 10: It's gonna be a great summer, we're getting like West

765
00:39:11,239 --> 00:39:12,640
Speaker 10: Side still, can we pull that?

766
00:39:12,920 --> 00:39:15,480
Speaker 4: I want to play that back. I don't know what

767
00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:16,759
Speaker 4: are we going to do, Kayley.

768
00:39:16,680 --> 00:39:19,440
Speaker 10: I don't know. I feel like we did a disservice

769
00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:21,759
Speaker 10: by not reading the full tweet, because it's not just

770
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:24,320
Speaker 10: at the courthouse tonight. After he sas New York references

771
00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:26,480
Speaker 10: anywhere anytime, any place, he goes on to say, I

772
00:39:26,560 --> 00:39:29,200
Speaker 10: suggest Monday evening, Tuesday evening, or Wednesday evening at my

773
00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:31,719
Speaker 10: Raley in Michigan, going on to say an alternative, he's

774
00:39:31,760 --> 00:39:34,000
Speaker 10: in New York City today, although probably doesn't know it,

775
00:39:34,120 --> 00:39:36,040
Speaker 10: and so am I stuck in one of many.

776
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:37,759
Speaker 4: Although probably doesn't know it.

777
00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:42,480
Speaker 10: Yes, you can find that whole post on truthsocial dot com.

778
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:46,759
Speaker 2: You're spending people there now, Rick Davis and Genie Shanzde No,

779
00:39:46,920 --> 00:39:49,880
Speaker 2: thank you. It must be Friday, and we need our

780
00:39:49,920 --> 00:39:52,080
Speaker 2: closers with us. They'll be back later on, by the way,

781
00:39:52,560 --> 00:39:55,360
Speaker 2: our signature panel five PM, the late edition bounce of

782
00:39:55,400 --> 00:39:57,000
Speaker 2: Power Bloomberg Radio and TV.

783
00:39:57,840 --> 00:40:02,080
Speaker 4: Always something to learn from Rick in Genie, We're.

784
00:40:01,880 --> 00:40:04,000
Speaker 2: Going to talk a little bit more coming up here, Kayley,

785
00:40:04,040 --> 00:40:06,959
Speaker 2: about our other top story today that's economic data.

786
00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:09,799
Speaker 10: Absolutely, we're going to get Mark Zandi from Moody's on

787
00:40:09,840 --> 00:40:14,680
Speaker 10: the program.

788
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:16,839
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can

789
00:40:17,040 --> 00:40:20,600
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and Enrounoo

790
00:40:20,719 --> 00:40:23,480
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live

791
00:40:23,600 --> 00:40:26,799
Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just

792
00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:30,759
Speaker 1: Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

793
00:40:31,640 --> 00:40:34,479
Speaker 10: Seems that Friday is a better day. Yes, the data

794
00:40:34,520 --> 00:40:36,799
Speaker 10: is not as scary today perhaps for the market as

795
00:40:36,800 --> 00:40:37,480
Speaker 10: it was yesterday.

796
00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:39,640
Speaker 2: Some better than expect journings going a long way here,

797
00:40:39,640 --> 00:40:42,480
Speaker 2: and it's hard to tell if we're caught in the

798
00:40:42,560 --> 00:40:46,480
Speaker 2: glare of Google and Microsoft beating estimates, Kaylee, or if

799
00:40:46,480 --> 00:40:50,640
Speaker 2: there's a little bit of a reversal in the negativity

800
00:40:50,719 --> 00:40:56,520
Speaker 2: surrounding the PCEE data yesterday. Quarterly monthly data out today

801
00:40:57,200 --> 00:40:59,239
Speaker 2: and it's telling a bit of a different story. We're

802
00:40:59,239 --> 00:41:01,919
Speaker 2: certainly seeing a reaction here, a bit of a sigh

803
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:05,480
Speaker 2: of relief realizing the headlines of problem as we've discussed

804
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:08,960
Speaker 2: politically for Joe Biden, but in terms of the economy itself.

805
00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:13,120
Speaker 2: Mark Xandy at Moody's Analytics out of a tweet yesterday

806
00:41:13,640 --> 00:41:16,440
Speaker 2: that might tell us a lot about where we are today.

807
00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:19,759
Speaker 2: Mark writes the Weaker that expected growth was largely the

808
00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:22,720
Speaker 2: result of a bigger increase in the trade deficit driven

809
00:41:22,800 --> 00:41:27,279
Speaker 2: by more imports. Perplexed by the sell off in the

810
00:41:27,320 --> 00:41:30,359
Speaker 2: stock and bond markets, he's with us now again. Chief

811
00:41:30,360 --> 00:41:33,520
Speaker 2: Economists Moods Analytics Market. It's great to see you. We're

812
00:41:33,560 --> 00:41:38,600
Speaker 2: overdue for a catch up here. Did the data today

813
00:41:40,239 --> 00:41:42,280
Speaker 2: reinforce your point from yesterday?

814
00:41:44,480 --> 00:41:47,600
Speaker 5: I think so, Joe, Yeah, yesterday was a bit perplexed

815
00:41:47,600 --> 00:41:49,800
Speaker 5: at the market reaction, I mean, big sell off. It

816
00:41:49,880 --> 00:41:54,840
Speaker 5: felt like folks were focused on the strong increase in

817
00:41:54,920 --> 00:41:58,399
Speaker 5: the core PC for the quarter, But in today's data

818
00:41:58,640 --> 00:42:02,200
Speaker 5: reaffirmed that, well, inflation remains sticky. It's not coming in

819
00:42:02,280 --> 00:42:04,839
Speaker 5: quite as fast as everyone would like. You know, it's

820
00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:07,359
Speaker 5: not hair on fire. You know, it is coming in

821
00:42:08,080 --> 00:42:10,640
Speaker 5: and it will continue to come in, you know, over

822
00:42:10,640 --> 00:42:12,240
Speaker 5: the course of the next several months. I think everyone's

823
00:42:12,280 --> 00:42:15,359
Speaker 5: just a bit more relaxed today, and that on top

824
00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:17,880
Speaker 5: of the good earning, so you know, contributed to green

825
00:42:17,920 --> 00:42:20,400
Speaker 5: today compared to red history. But if you add of

826
00:42:20,520 --> 00:42:21,960
Speaker 5: both days, we're kind of.

827
00:42:21,800 --> 00:42:24,560
Speaker 4: Where we sort of started. So no real.

828
00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:28,480
Speaker 10: Change Okay, fair enough. It's also worth pointing out that

829
00:42:28,520 --> 00:42:31,600
Speaker 10: PC was not the only data that we got today, Mark,

830
00:42:31,640 --> 00:42:34,840
Speaker 10: We did get University of Michigan sentiment figures and inflation

831
00:42:34,920 --> 00:42:38,800
Speaker 10: expectation figure sentiment going down, inflation expectations at least for

832
00:42:38,840 --> 00:42:42,080
Speaker 10: the year ahead ticking up. How should we be thinking

833
00:42:42,160 --> 00:42:44,920
Speaker 10: about the consumer, the engine of the economy, that was

834
00:42:45,400 --> 00:42:48,560
Speaker 10: what is driving the GDB growth that we are seeing,

835
00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:52,360
Speaker 10: and how they're how firm they are at this moment,

836
00:42:52,400 --> 00:42:53,440
Speaker 10: how stable.

837
00:42:54,160 --> 00:42:57,120
Speaker 5: Bill rock solid and Ni Ailey, you know, they're driving

838
00:42:57,160 --> 00:43:00,680
Speaker 5: the train, have been throughout the since the pandemic, continued

839
00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:04,960
Speaker 5: to do so. No sign of any kind of weakening

840
00:43:05,040 --> 00:43:08,160
Speaker 5: and consumer spending at least not in the reports we

841
00:43:08,239 --> 00:43:11,880
Speaker 5: got today and yesterday, and for good reason. All the

842
00:43:11,880 --> 00:43:15,560
Speaker 5: fundamentals look good. Wage growth is stronger than inflations, of

843
00:43:15,600 --> 00:43:20,040
Speaker 5: people's purchasing powers improving, and that's across the entire wage distribution.

844
00:43:20,160 --> 00:43:24,120
Speaker 5: Low wage workers, high wage workers. You know, unemployments for

845
00:43:24,960 --> 00:43:27,839
Speaker 5: four percent been there for more than two years, so that, yeah,

846
00:43:27,840 --> 00:43:28,600
Speaker 5: that's not changed.

847
00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:33,000
Speaker 10: So barg If all of that is true, why isn't

848
00:43:33,040 --> 00:43:37,400
Speaker 10: sentiment higher? Why don't people feel better? Bloomberg's polling suggests

849
00:43:37,400 --> 00:43:40,040
Speaker 10: people feel that the economy is going to get worse,

850
00:43:40,120 --> 00:43:43,319
Speaker 10: not better, in the months moving forward. So what's the disconnect.

851
00:43:44,120 --> 00:43:46,320
Speaker 5: Well, partly you're looking at the wrong index, you know,

852
00:43:46,360 --> 00:43:49,360
Speaker 5: again the interest of Michigan survey that's biased by political

853
00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:51,840
Speaker 5: people's political prism. I think if you look at the

854
00:43:51,840 --> 00:43:55,839
Speaker 5: Conference for survey, yeah, you know, that's exactly right down

855
00:43:55,880 --> 00:43:56,400
Speaker 5: the fairway.

856
00:43:56,520 --> 00:43:57,640
Speaker 8: I mean, it's they've.

857
00:43:57,440 --> 00:44:00,480
Speaker 5: Been doing that survey for decades and it's a little

858
00:44:00,480 --> 00:44:03,160
Speaker 5: bit above average, no change in the last six, nine,

859
00:44:03,239 --> 00:44:06,399
Speaker 5: twelve months, very consistent with the spending we're getting. So

860
00:44:06,520 --> 00:44:08,600
Speaker 5: I wouldn't pay much attention now. Having said that, I

861
00:44:08,640 --> 00:44:11,840
Speaker 5: do think people, you know, the typical American is still

862
00:44:12,040 --> 00:44:15,000
Speaker 5: feeling the sting of the high inflation we suffered back

863
00:44:15,480 --> 00:44:17,799
Speaker 5: in twenty one twenty two going into twenty three, and

864
00:44:17,800 --> 00:44:20,640
Speaker 5: people are paying a lot more. Even though inflation has

865
00:44:20,680 --> 00:44:22,680
Speaker 5: come back in, people are still paying a lot more

866
00:44:22,760 --> 00:44:26,719
Speaker 5: for food, for rent, you know, kind of the staples

867
00:44:26,719 --> 00:44:27,160
Speaker 5: of life.

868
00:44:27,360 --> 00:44:27,560
Speaker 7: You know.

869
00:44:27,640 --> 00:44:31,600
Speaker 5: I just got my insurance motor insurance, vehicle insurance bill,

870
00:44:32,560 --> 00:44:35,279
Speaker 5: joked when I saw it. So, you know, we're still

871
00:44:36,080 --> 00:44:39,640
Speaker 5: inflation's in and that's great, and that's very positive for

872
00:44:39,840 --> 00:44:41,960
Speaker 5: future Fed policy and interest rate cuts. But you know,

873
00:44:42,000 --> 00:44:45,000
Speaker 5: people still have are still feeling the ill effects about

874
00:44:45,040 --> 00:44:47,479
Speaker 5: high inflation that we suffered back a couple three years ago.

875
00:44:48,520 --> 00:44:50,239
Speaker 4: Where are you on interest rate cuts? So we're going

876
00:44:50,320 --> 00:44:51,120
Speaker 4: to get any of this year?

877
00:44:52,760 --> 00:44:53,560
Speaker 8: I think so, Joe.

878
00:44:53,680 --> 00:44:56,239
Speaker 5: I mean, if there were no election, I'd say we'd

879
00:44:56,239 --> 00:44:58,680
Speaker 5: get two, maybe three. But there's an election, and that

880
00:44:59,120 --> 00:45:02,520
Speaker 5: messes things up. So it feels like it's going to

881
00:45:02,560 --> 00:45:04,840
Speaker 5: take a few months for the Fed to collect the

882
00:45:04,840 --> 00:45:07,040
Speaker 5: evidence they need that. You know, the Zandi's right, and

883
00:45:07,040 --> 00:45:09,799
Speaker 5: inflations come in and we're going to be fine, and

884
00:45:09,840 --> 00:45:13,480
Speaker 5: that probably takes us to the September meeting. But you know,

885
00:45:13,600 --> 00:45:16,239
Speaker 5: September is right before the election. You're right in the

886
00:45:16,280 --> 00:45:18,320
Speaker 5: middle of the election, and I mean you've been seeing

887
00:45:18,400 --> 00:45:23,359
Speaker 5: reports about what President Trump might do to the next

888
00:45:23,360 --> 00:45:27,560
Speaker 5: Federal Reserve. They're going to be politicized. They just don't

889
00:45:27,560 --> 00:45:28,120
Speaker 5: want to do that.

890
00:45:28,200 --> 00:45:28,600
Speaker 6: Now.

891
00:45:28,680 --> 00:45:31,879
Speaker 5: Not lowering rates when the inflation numbers say you should

892
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:35,279
Speaker 5: lower rates is also political, but less likely you get

893
00:45:35,280 --> 00:45:38,000
Speaker 5: wrapped up in the politics if you don't cut right.

894
00:45:38,120 --> 00:45:40,120
Speaker 5: So that means that takes you to the November meeting.

895
00:45:40,120 --> 00:45:42,640
Speaker 5: But the November meeting is like days after the election.

896
00:45:42,680 --> 00:45:45,080
Speaker 5: I mean like literally right after the election. Making a

897
00:45:45,120 --> 00:45:48,799
Speaker 5: movement feels political. So I know, when you add it

898
00:45:48,800 --> 00:45:51,759
Speaker 5: all up, given all these dynamics, I say one rate

899
00:45:51,760 --> 00:45:55,640
Speaker 5: cut in December and then quarter a rate cut every

900
00:45:55,719 --> 00:45:58,560
Speaker 5: quarter next year going into twenty twenty six.

901
00:46:00,320 --> 00:46:02,279
Speaker 10: Okay, so it might be a while because of the

902
00:46:02,320 --> 00:46:05,400
Speaker 10: election before you see the support for the economy in

903
00:46:05,440 --> 00:46:09,240
Speaker 10: the form of policy easing perhaps, And I would imagine

904
00:46:09,280 --> 00:46:11,920
Speaker 10: in that same vein market also, we should have very

905
00:46:11,960 --> 00:46:14,560
Speaker 10: little expectation that if something were to break, if things

906
00:46:14,560 --> 00:46:17,840
Speaker 10: were to suddenly materially soften, but the Fed, still fighting inflation,

907
00:46:17,920 --> 00:46:20,040
Speaker 10: wants to keep policy tight that you wouldn't have any

908
00:46:20,080 --> 00:46:23,359
Speaker 10: kind of fiscal policy stepping in to try to do

909
00:46:23,440 --> 00:46:24,399
Speaker 10: some of that work either.

910
00:46:25,400 --> 00:46:29,160
Speaker 5: No, No, that's just not going to happen. So the

911
00:46:29,160 --> 00:46:31,439
Speaker 5: economy is on its own. I do think if something

912
00:46:31,520 --> 00:46:34,640
Speaker 5: breaks in the financial system, and just as a reminder,

913
00:46:34,800 --> 00:46:37,000
Speaker 5: you know, when the Fed's got the funds rate of

914
00:46:37,040 --> 00:46:39,720
Speaker 5: five and a half percent, you'll curve is inverted. Financial

915
00:46:39,719 --> 00:46:41,560
Speaker 5: system is under a lot of pressure. That's one reason

916
00:46:41,600 --> 00:46:44,120
Speaker 5: why you might want to cut sooner rather than later,

917
00:46:44,280 --> 00:46:47,279
Speaker 5: not to so nothing breaks there. Yeah, and there's you know,

918
00:46:47,400 --> 00:46:50,880
Speaker 5: things to be cautious about in the broader economy. The

919
00:46:50,920 --> 00:46:55,480
Speaker 5: lib market feels really good, but that's resting on no layoffs,

920
00:46:55,600 --> 00:46:59,360
Speaker 5: and that feels like something that can change very quickly

921
00:47:00,800 --> 00:47:04,520
Speaker 5: if there's an event or sentiment shifts among business people

922
00:47:04,560 --> 00:47:07,160
Speaker 5: and they start laying off workers. So I do think

923
00:47:07,920 --> 00:47:10,640
Speaker 5: there's a strong argument to start cutting interest rates, and

924
00:47:10,680 --> 00:47:14,520
Speaker 5: I think the FED would cut rate if something did break,

925
00:47:14,920 --> 00:47:17,120
Speaker 5: even though inflation is not quite back to where it

926
00:47:17,160 --> 00:47:18,879
Speaker 5: needs to be, at least in their book.

927
00:47:20,160 --> 00:47:22,520
Speaker 2: Spending time with Mark Xandy from Moody's Analytics here on

928
00:47:22,520 --> 00:47:25,359
Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and Radio. That's reporting out today Wall Street

929
00:47:25,400 --> 00:47:28,600
Speaker 2: Journal story Mark, that makes you wonder what the FED

930
00:47:28,680 --> 00:47:31,000
Speaker 2: might look like if Donald Trump as president again. He's

931
00:47:31,040 --> 00:47:34,879
Speaker 2: hearing advice apparently from some of his allies, that there'd

932
00:47:34,880 --> 00:47:37,080
Speaker 2: be a way to take power away from the FED

933
00:47:37,120 --> 00:47:40,200
Speaker 2: and even introduce the commander in chief, make the president

934
00:47:40,400 --> 00:47:45,279
Speaker 2: part of the interest rate decision making mechanism. This is

935
00:47:45,320 --> 00:47:48,040
Speaker 2: all blue sky stuff right now. But what would another

936
00:47:48,080 --> 00:47:49,319
Speaker 2: Trump term mean for the Fed?

937
00:47:50,719 --> 00:47:52,840
Speaker 5: Well, as you know, it's coming from the Wall Street Journal,

938
00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:56,279
Speaker 5: I have no other knowledge than that. But let me

939
00:47:56,360 --> 00:48:00,840
Speaker 5: just say, you know a bedrock of a well functioning economy,

940
00:48:00,960 --> 00:48:04,880
Speaker 5: a market economy. Our economy is an independent federal reserve,

941
00:48:04,920 --> 00:48:07,000
Speaker 5: if fed, a reserve that can make interest rate decisions

942
00:48:07,040 --> 00:48:11,239
Speaker 5: independent of political factors, or at least as best as

943
00:48:11,239 --> 00:48:17,000
Speaker 5: they can do if they're changing policy because it makes

944
00:48:17,040 --> 00:48:20,120
Speaker 5: for good politics, and that Trump's what's needed for a

945
00:48:20,160 --> 00:48:20,880
Speaker 5: good economy.

946
00:48:21,000 --> 00:48:22,800
Speaker 8: That's just a prescription for disaster.

947
00:48:23,360 --> 00:48:26,160
Speaker 5: And I think every investor on the planet knows that,

948
00:48:26,280 --> 00:48:28,560
Speaker 5: and I think everyone would throw up all over that.

949
00:48:29,000 --> 00:48:34,040
Speaker 5: So hopefully that's just a report, just a report, and

950
00:48:34,080 --> 00:48:36,919
Speaker 5: nothing more than that, all.

951
00:48:36,880 --> 00:48:40,160
Speaker 10: Right, Mark Zandy, Moody's analytics chief economist. Always great to

952
00:48:40,160 --> 00:48:42,240
Speaker 10: have you here on Bloomberg Television and Radio.

953
00:48:42,280 --> 00:48:47,320
Speaker 2: Thank you so much, thanks for listening to the Balance

954
00:48:47,320 --> 00:48:50,960
Speaker 2: of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already,

955
00:48:50,960 --> 00:48:54,279
Speaker 2: at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts, and

956
00:48:54,360 --> 00:48:56,960
Speaker 2: you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC

957
00:48:57,120 --> 00:48:59,800
Speaker 2: at New Time Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.