WEBVTT - Chuck’s Commentary - Anti-vaxx Has Become The New Prohibition Movement + Ask Chuck

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<v Speaker 1>Hello, they're happy Thursday. I know I've hit you three

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<v Speaker 1>straight days, but as I told you, it's a you know,

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<v Speaker 1>it's the.

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<v Speaker 2>Second new year.

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<v Speaker 1>It's the sort of the second new year, as I

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<v Speaker 1>like to call it, where we're sort of getting things started.

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<v Speaker 1>Washington is sort of gearing back up for business. Congress

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<v Speaker 1>had a really tough week this week. I think they

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<v Speaker 1>had had to work for two and a half whole

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<v Speaker 1>days here in Washington before getting getting.

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<v Speaker 2>To fly out.

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<v Speaker 1>How is your two and a half day work week?

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<v Speaker 1>If I could go that to you? They But in

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<v Speaker 1>all seriousness, I think Congress will certainly have to take

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<v Speaker 1>a more starring role, won't be there's no There's only

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<v Speaker 1>room for one star in Washington right now, and that's

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<v Speaker 1>the occupant of the Oval Office. But Congress has a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of ways to insert itself into the story, from

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<v Speaker 1>the Epstein files, from we've got government funding coming up.

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<v Speaker 1>That was obviously the focus of my lead yesterday with

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<v Speaker 1>excuse me on Wednesday, I say yesterday, I don't want

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<v Speaker 1>to assume when you guys are I know you're listening

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<v Speaker 1>the second in uploads right, of course, But for those

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<v Speaker 1>of you that are listening a little late, nothing wrong

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<v Speaker 1>with that. But in the previous podcast I talked about

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<v Speaker 1>sort of when you start.

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<v Speaker 2>To look at the political.

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<v Speaker 1>Situation of the Democrats nationally, being uncooperative on the budget

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<v Speaker 1>might be better politics for them. I e. Now, we've never

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<v Speaker 1>seen a situation like that. But I want to start

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<v Speaker 1>with sort of what's going on here, this anti vaccine

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<v Speaker 1>zeal that's taking place, and with the announcement the Florida

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<v Speaker 1>this is the state I grew up in. In fact,

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<v Speaker 1>I remember they just announced that they're not going to

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<v Speaker 1>have they're going to drop the vaccine mandate for kids

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<v Speaker 1>in schools. You talk too many health experts and they

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<v Speaker 1>will tell you the vaccine mandates for public schools and frankly,

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<v Speaker 1>for most schools. It's not just public schools. Most private

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<v Speaker 1>schools also have a manday essentially follows state law, whatever

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<v Speaker 1>the state law is. And so the Florida Surgeon General,

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<v Speaker 1>who's somebody that many in the scientific community would say

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<v Speaker 1>isn't really a believer in mainstream science and mainstream theories

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<v Speaker 1>of healthcare. You know, he's been the one that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>has been telling people not to take mRNA vaccines and

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<v Speaker 1>has pushed against the COVID stuff. And it's pretty much

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<v Speaker 1>an anti vaxxer. And what's interesting is that Ronda Santis

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<v Speaker 1>is not somebody who came across as an anti vaxxer

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<v Speaker 1>when he ran for governor in twenty eighteen, and even

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<v Speaker 1>in twenty twenty two didn't. And in fact, when the

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<v Speaker 1>vaccine was rolling out, his office was very aggressive at

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<v Speaker 1>making sure everybody sixty five plus could get it and

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<v Speaker 1>all of those things. So to see the turn here, right,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, you know, politically, what's been successful for him

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<v Speaker 1>was keeping Florida open. But the idea that you'd be

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<v Speaker 1>anti vaccine to keep Florida open has sort of been

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<v Speaker 1>an odd mix here in an odd marriage. But in

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<v Speaker 1>some ways that that's what's been going on. Right, And

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<v Speaker 1>you sit there and I'll tell you when I saw this,

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<v Speaker 1>I actually remember I was one of those kids. I

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<v Speaker 1>remember I was not allowed to start school. I think

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<v Speaker 1>it was before third grade. I can't remember second grade

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<v Speaker 1>or third grade or fourth grade, but it was it

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<v Speaker 1>was in elementary school. And my doctor, you know who,

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<v Speaker 1>to vouch for my vaccine schedule only put the month

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<v Speaker 1>in the year, and the bureaucrats that Dade County said

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<v Speaker 1>that wasn't good enough, and because the day of the

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<v Speaker 1>week wasn't put in there what day it was, I was,

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<v Speaker 1>I was, you know, not allowed to not allowed to

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<v Speaker 1>come to school. And it turned into this standoff between

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<v Speaker 1>my parents and them a little bit nothing. But at

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<v Speaker 1>some point my doctor just said, all right, we'll just

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<v Speaker 1>say it happened on this day and we just put

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<v Speaker 1>a date and then it was done right. It didn't matter,

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<v Speaker 1>didn't have to verify it for sure, but the fact

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<v Speaker 1>that the form didn't have that was what this became.

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<v Speaker 1>And you know, my let's just say, my father thought

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<v Speaker 1>it was a bit absurd, and I remember he said,

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<v Speaker 1>I want you to take this note to your teacher

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<v Speaker 1>to apologize that you weren't there. And I think in

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<v Speaker 1>the note I remember reading it, it was like the

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<v Speaker 1>bureaucracy of Dade County Public Schools, you know, forced this,

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<v Speaker 1>and we're sorry that he couldn't be there, and this

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<v Speaker 1>is not how we are as parents. We were very

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<v Speaker 1>respectful to teachers. Blah blah blah. It was interesting how

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<v Speaker 1>he did it on that front. My father was a character.

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<v Speaker 1>I miss him. I miss him dearly and often wonder

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<v Speaker 1>I lost him. In nineteen eighty eight, I often wonder,

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<v Speaker 1>because I got my love of politics from him, I

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<v Speaker 1>often wonder what.

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<v Speaker 2>He would think of today's politics.

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<v Speaker 1>I have the luxury to believe one thing, and I'll

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<v Speaker 1>just leave it at that on that front. But what

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<v Speaker 1>it gets me too is trying to figure out. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>trying to figure out how the hell did Florida lose

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<v Speaker 1>its mind? And I don't think it's the residence of Florida, Like,

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<v Speaker 1>how did we get how did this kooky anti vax

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<v Speaker 1>stuff go mainstream? And I've been looking for an historical parallel,

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<v Speaker 1>like when have we lost our minds before as a

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<v Speaker 1>society and got like weird fervor this an anti something further,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think we're experiencing something that's very similar to prohibition.

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<v Speaker 1>And what's interesting if you think about the timing of

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<v Speaker 1>the of the prohibition movement and the war on alcohol

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<v Speaker 1>and the anti vax movement, and when did sort of

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<v Speaker 1>the war on alcohol see its greatest success and when

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<v Speaker 1>has the anti vax movement seen its greatest success? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>you had the pandemic in nineteen seventeen and eighteen, and

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<v Speaker 1>World War One had a huge cultural impact on society,

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<v Speaker 1>and there was an anti alcohol movement before the world

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<v Speaker 1>World War One and before that pandemic of nineteen seventy

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<v Speaker 1>in eighteen, and it's certainly raised anxieties. The pandemic and

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<v Speaker 1>World War One back then raised anxieties about morality and

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<v Speaker 1>public health and the anti alcohol movement which had existed.

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<v Speaker 1>If you're a watcher of the Gilded Age, Cynthia Nixon's

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<v Speaker 1>character hosts meetings of the Temperance movement. This was the

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<v Speaker 1>beginnings of the anti So this was like a twenty

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<v Speaker 1>year movement, just like the anti vaxx movement, right, has

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<v Speaker 1>been around a long time. It took a long time

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<v Speaker 1>for them to get traction. Covid allowed them, gave them

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<v Speaker 1>their moment, and the vaccine mandates, right, that was the opening, Right,

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<v Speaker 1>it was the mandate that became the opening for the

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<v Speaker 1>entire thing. And it wasn't just about a COVID vaccine.

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<v Speaker 1>Right now we're getting rid of mandates on mumps and

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<v Speaker 1>measles and hepatitis B and all these things, which is

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<v Speaker 1>really quite concerning. Well, in some ways, the pandemic of

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<v Speaker 1>nineteen eighteen and World War One and the anti German

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<v Speaker 1>mindset that the country had, which also meant anti beer, right,

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<v Speaker 1>The biggest brewers at that time in America were Germans,

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<v Speaker 1>so it became so they took advantage of a moment. Okay, Now,

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<v Speaker 1>the anti alcohol movement was framed sort of as a

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<v Speaker 1>moral crusade. It was a moral failing, was the argument, right, sin, corruption,

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<v Speaker 1>family destruction. The German American brewers were the villains here, right,

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<v Speaker 1>We just fought them, you know, the Europeans had to

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<v Speaker 1>fight them War one. They're bad people and they're the

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<v Speaker 1>ones pushing alcohol on us.

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<v Speaker 2>And then the.

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<v Speaker 1>Dry reformers at the time said that abstinence, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>in some ways was a civic duty. Well, think about

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<v Speaker 1>the anti VAXX movement, right, it's been framed as sort

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<v Speaker 1>of a personal rights issue. Farmer companies, public health officials,

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<v Speaker 1>and globalists are the villains here, and the choice being

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<v Speaker 1>able to have a choice. It's being framed it's patrio.

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<v Speaker 1>It's your patriotic duty to resist this coersion, right, that's

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<v Speaker 1>not what a free society allowed to you. So that

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<v Speaker 1>was it helped them get a hold. So then you

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<v Speaker 1>have sort of you know, how did they you know,

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<v Speaker 1>move forward?

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<v Speaker 2>Right?

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<v Speaker 1>The eighteenth Amendment, the Volstead Act banned even mild beer

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<v Speaker 1>and wine, sweeping, federal intervention in a daily life when

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<v Speaker 1>it came to alcohol. All of this, right, all of

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<v Speaker 1>this happening right after right right nineteen nineteen, nineteen twenty,

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<v Speaker 1>nineteen twenty one. Well, the vaccine mandates for workplaces, schools,

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<v Speaker 1>military court battles over OSHA, and federal contractors. Do they

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<v Speaker 1>have to abide by the mandate sweeping requirements?

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<v Speaker 2>What did it do?

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<v Speaker 1>It hardened opposition that actually might have faded it had

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<v Speaker 1>been left to being voluntary. If there is a mistake

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<v Speaker 1>here that the scientific community made and that the government

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<v Speaker 1>officials made, was the mandate aspect of this, right, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>you tell somebody they have to do it, and then

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<v Speaker 1>they go, well, why are you making me do it?

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<v Speaker 1>You tell somebody that it's voluntary. But here's why we

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<v Speaker 1>think you should do it. You're going to get eighty twenty.

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<v Speaker 1>You'll probably get eighty twenty in either case. The question

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<v Speaker 1>is is, you know, does the eighty become an advocate

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<v Speaker 1>or do they become do they become a quick questioning?

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<v Speaker 1>Now think about you know, and look what happened here.

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<v Speaker 1>The concern about alcohol was frankly like, was the hard stuff.

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<v Speaker 1>But then when they banned baar and wine. It started

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<v Speaker 1>to get get at people and what we're doing here,

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<v Speaker 1>anti vaxx, anti COVID vaccine, that was one thing. Now

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<v Speaker 1>this is turning into anti all vaccines. So what happened

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<v Speaker 1>with alcohol? Well, so what happens We ban alcohol and

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<v Speaker 1>then basically we create crime gangs, Right, we create an

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<v Speaker 1>entire criminal industrial complex.

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<v Speaker 2>That actually exists to this day.

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<v Speaker 1>Number one, right, black market, Lickner, and then the irony

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<v Speaker 1>was poisonings and debt. Here, the anti alcohol movement was

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<v Speaker 1>supposed to be about making you healthier. It was supposed

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<v Speaker 1>to make society better. So what did it do? It

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<v Speaker 1>increased crime and more people died from bad alcohol, essentially

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<v Speaker 1>bootlegged alcohol, you know, the homemade stuff that people unregulated

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<v Speaker 1>and it was killing people. Well, the anti vaxx movement, right,

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<v Speaker 1>all of a sudden, now it is spread beyond covid.

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<v Speaker 1>No more vaccines from measles, polio, HPV, these diseases were contained,

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<v Speaker 1>and now we've already seen a measle's outbreak. Lord only

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<v Speaker 1>knows what's going to come in Florida without this vaccine mandate.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, it's sadly, it's not going to be an

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<v Speaker 1>if something breaks out, it's a win, so not another parallel.

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<v Speaker 1>Then there was the political fallout right, Prohibition became a symbol.

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<v Speaker 1>It turned into a symbol of government overreach and eroded trust,

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<v Speaker 1>fueled cynicism about reform, and eventually it does get repealed,

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<v Speaker 1>but not until there's one of the most catas you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the nineteen twenties were incredibly disruptive in American society in

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<v Speaker 1>all sorts of pipe leads to the Great Depression. It

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<v Speaker 1>also leads to the party behind all of this, right

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<v Speaker 1>ends up getting just eviscerated in nineteen thirty two. Immediately

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<v Speaker 1>prohibition is repealed. Why at the time the economy was terrible.

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<v Speaker 1>It was pitched as a way to potentially create jobs.

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<v Speaker 1>If you legalize alcohol and get it back on the

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<v Speaker 1>streets the making of it, you know, you might create jobs.

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<v Speaker 1>And it was also was going to make the working

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<v Speaker 1>class a little bit happier as you were trying to

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<v Speaker 1>keep society from falling out. Well, the anti VAXX movement right,

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<v Speaker 1>it's reshaping politics of the right. It's embedding now distrust

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<v Speaker 1>into public health. It's going to be long term party

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<v Speaker 1>identity now for real, anti government, anti institution, but it's

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<v Speaker 1>going to erode compliance for a while. And the question

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<v Speaker 1>is going to be when you could sort of see

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<v Speaker 1>it here, right, it is at some point the public's

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<v Speaker 1>going to figure out this made us less healthy, this

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<v Speaker 1>put us more at risk. And in fact, I think

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<v Speaker 1>the state of Florida is you know, wrongful death lawsuits

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<v Speaker 1>are gonna skyrocket if people die from getting a disease

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<v Speaker 1>that could have been stopped with a vaccine. And I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's the government itself, right, that is going to

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<v Speaker 1>They're supposed to be shields for this, right, government is

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<v Speaker 1>supposed to be shielded a bit from this that ultimately.

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<v Speaker 2>It's the people.

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<v Speaker 1>But this is an intentional act too. How are they

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<v Speaker 1>trying to do harm? You know, you could argue that

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<v Speaker 1>the motivation is not to do harm, but they are knowing,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, all the evidence is they know the potential

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<v Speaker 1>harm that can be done from this decision, and they

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<v Speaker 1>did it anyway. So look, it's not a perfect analogy

0:12:50.800 --> 0:12:54.040
<v Speaker 1>sort of the prohibition movement, but it is a reminder

0:12:54.080 --> 0:12:57.120
<v Speaker 1>we lost our minds as a society and somehow this

0:12:57.240 --> 0:13:00.240
<v Speaker 1>took hold and nobody really wanted it, but nobody knew

0:13:00.240 --> 0:13:03.720
<v Speaker 1>how to stop it, and it took sort of It

0:13:03.760 --> 0:13:07.440
<v Speaker 1>took people dying. It took the rise of criminal gangs

0:13:07.480 --> 0:13:09.040
<v Speaker 1>and the mob and all of these stuff to get

0:13:09.040 --> 0:13:11.440
<v Speaker 1>people to realize, yeah, this is this wasn't the right way.

0:13:11.320 --> 0:13:11.720
<v Speaker 2>To do it.

0:13:14.880 --> 0:13:18.080
<v Speaker 1>So the question is is it when when you know,

0:13:18.400 --> 0:13:21.880
<v Speaker 1>I don't think anybody thinks not getting vaccines is a

0:13:21.880 --> 0:13:23.920
<v Speaker 1>good idea. When I say anybody, obviously there's some people

0:13:24.200 --> 0:13:27.080
<v Speaker 1>they're in power. But I think this is a seventy

0:13:27.120 --> 0:13:28.599
<v Speaker 1>thirty issue. I don't think this is a fifty to

0:13:28.600 --> 0:13:29.319
<v Speaker 1>fifty issue.

0:13:30.320 --> 0:13:31.280
<v Speaker 2>I guess we have to go.

0:13:31.240 --> 0:13:35.240
<v Speaker 1>Polling on it more directly than ever before. I now

0:13:35.280 --> 0:13:38.040
<v Speaker 1>it'll be interesting. Is we need some better polling data.

0:13:38.040 --> 0:13:40.560
<v Speaker 1>And I think we're you know, I know what I'd

0:13:40.600 --> 0:13:42.240
<v Speaker 1>be doing if I were running the NBC News poll

0:13:42.320 --> 0:13:45.120
<v Speaker 1>right now, creating a battery of tests on this. I

0:13:45.160 --> 0:13:48.680
<v Speaker 1>think on public health, I think we we're all making

0:13:48.760 --> 0:13:51.520
<v Speaker 1>assumptions that we know how. I assume it'll be pretty generational.

0:13:51.600 --> 0:13:53.400
<v Speaker 1>I think the older you are and the memories you

0:13:53.480 --> 0:13:59.600
<v Speaker 1>have of quarantines, of having people you knew in your

0:13:59.640 --> 0:14:02.640
<v Speaker 1>life die of the measles and mumps, which was not

0:14:03.520 --> 0:14:06.960
<v Speaker 1>a rare thing in the forties, thirties, forties and fifties,

0:14:07.520 --> 0:14:13.320
<v Speaker 1>that the memory of those things is you know, means that,

0:14:13.520 --> 0:14:15.360
<v Speaker 1>my guess is the older you are, the more pro

0:14:15.440 --> 0:14:17.880
<v Speaker 1>vaccine you are, and perhaps the further away you are

0:14:17.920 --> 0:14:20.760
<v Speaker 1>from this, the more quote open you are to personal

0:14:20.800 --> 0:14:28.280
<v Speaker 1>freedom on this front. But look, I'm throwing it out there.

0:14:28.320 --> 0:14:32.320
<v Speaker 1>I'm not saying this is a definitive comparison. I'd love

0:14:32.360 --> 0:14:34.600
<v Speaker 1>your feedback on this. What do you think is the

0:14:34.960 --> 0:14:37.560
<v Speaker 1>is this anti vaxx movement that's starting to take hold.

0:14:38.760 --> 0:14:41.280
<v Speaker 1>I think there are a lot of parallels here to prohibition, right,

0:14:41.320 --> 0:14:44.440
<v Speaker 1>which in some ways right, it took almost one hundred

0:14:44.480 --> 0:14:46.400
<v Speaker 1>years to get rid of dry counties. There's still a

0:14:46.440 --> 0:14:50.160
<v Speaker 1>handful of dry counties. I've watched my in my state

0:14:50.200 --> 0:14:53.840
<v Speaker 1>of Florida. Over time, the dry counties in the last

0:14:53.880 --> 0:14:56.400
<v Speaker 1>twenty years have finally gone away. So it took nearly

0:14:56.440 --> 0:14:59.440
<v Speaker 1>one hundred years for this for the entire sort of

0:14:59.440 --> 0:15:04.120
<v Speaker 1>war on alcohol to be fully repealed or to be

0:15:04.240 --> 0:15:07.280
<v Speaker 1>you know, fully surrender. So this may and this is

0:15:07.320 --> 0:15:10.200
<v Speaker 1>a reminder we may have set ourselves back on the

0:15:10.320 --> 0:15:13.120
<v Speaker 1>on the vaccination front and on public health for one

0:15:13.200 --> 0:15:18.760
<v Speaker 1>hundred years, that it may take that long for smaller

0:15:18.760 --> 0:15:24.040
<v Speaker 1>communities to realize this was a mistake. Now again, I

0:15:24.040 --> 0:15:26.680
<v Speaker 1>think there are lessons learned here from those that want

0:15:27.000 --> 0:15:34.200
<v Speaker 1>more vaccine compliance, and that is mandates don't work, right,

0:15:34.360 --> 0:15:38.040
<v Speaker 1>it's the mandates. You know, you can implement certain mandates

0:15:38.120 --> 0:15:41.360
<v Speaker 1>right school children, yes, kids, And by the way, this

0:15:41.480 --> 0:15:44.280
<v Speaker 1>is the real vulnerability here, I think politically in the

0:15:44.320 --> 0:15:46.680
<v Speaker 1>short term, I have no idea whether the Democrats are

0:15:46.720 --> 0:15:47.960
<v Speaker 1>capable of a message like this.

0:15:48.440 --> 0:15:49.200
<v Speaker 2>But if I were.

0:15:49.080 --> 0:15:52.120
<v Speaker 1>Advising a bil cassidy right now, I'd say, look, you're

0:15:52.160 --> 0:15:54.280
<v Speaker 1>looking for a way to sort of get out of

0:15:54.320 --> 0:15:57.840
<v Speaker 1>this box that you've put yourself in. Well, you know,

0:15:57.840 --> 0:16:00.080
<v Speaker 1>do you want to be on the side of of

0:16:00.440 --> 0:16:02.640
<v Speaker 1>more children and more healthy children or you want to

0:16:02.680 --> 0:16:06.000
<v Speaker 1>be on the side of less healthy children? Right, because

0:16:06.080 --> 0:16:12.080
<v Speaker 1>right now the Republican Party is accumulating a record that

0:16:12.360 --> 0:16:17.200
<v Speaker 1>is putting kids, is making kids less healthy, is making

0:16:17.240 --> 0:16:20.560
<v Speaker 1>their outcomes less healthy. Whether it's on you know, not

0:16:20.680 --> 0:16:25.520
<v Speaker 1>mandating vaccines. To look at the state of Texas and

0:16:25.560 --> 0:16:27.800
<v Speaker 1>it's inability to have a warning system with the floods

0:16:27.800 --> 0:16:30.800
<v Speaker 1>that put those kids at risk. Obviously, it's with what's

0:16:30.800 --> 0:16:35.480
<v Speaker 1>happening at schools and the inability to protect kids from

0:16:35.560 --> 0:16:39.080
<v Speaker 1>guns there that you know, there's a record here piling

0:16:39.160 --> 0:16:41.880
<v Speaker 1>up the medicaid cuts. Who gets hurt the most? It's

0:16:42.120 --> 0:16:45.560
<v Speaker 1>kids the deportations, who gets hurt the most? The kids

0:16:45.560 --> 0:16:49.880
<v Speaker 1>that are born here, right, there's this. The most vulnerable

0:16:49.920 --> 0:16:52.960
<v Speaker 1>to all of these radical policy changes that we've been

0:16:53.000 --> 0:16:56.680
<v Speaker 1>experiencing over the last six months are those under the

0:16:56.680 --> 0:17:01.800
<v Speaker 1>age of eighteen in various ways. I again, I don't know.

0:17:02.120 --> 0:17:05.840
<v Speaker 1>I've not seen a messaging component out of the Democratic

0:17:05.880 --> 0:17:08.680
<v Speaker 1>side that knows how to do this and and sort

0:17:08.680 --> 0:17:09.240
<v Speaker 1>of simplify.

0:17:09.320 --> 0:17:10.400
<v Speaker 2>The closest I've seen.

0:17:10.240 --> 0:17:12.679
<v Speaker 1>Is Ram Emmanuel, who sort of tried to look at

0:17:12.680 --> 0:17:15.119
<v Speaker 1>this kitchen you know, sort of start at the kitchen

0:17:15.119 --> 0:17:17.760
<v Speaker 1>table and work your way back, rather than to start

0:17:17.880 --> 0:17:19.400
<v Speaker 1>with a political argument.

0:17:19.080 --> 0:17:20.760
<v Speaker 2>And work your way towards the kitchen table.

0:17:22.640 --> 0:17:24.359
<v Speaker 1>And I think on this vaccine stuff, you've got to

0:17:24.400 --> 0:17:27.000
<v Speaker 1>step away from the political side as much as that's

0:17:27.040 --> 0:17:29.040
<v Speaker 1>where you know, this is a Kennedy problem and it's

0:17:29.080 --> 0:17:30.960
<v Speaker 1>all of this. But in some ways, the more you

0:17:31.040 --> 0:17:34.359
<v Speaker 1>focus it there it probably is the less people hear it,

0:17:34.960 --> 0:17:37.840
<v Speaker 1>and the more you go as to, hey, are people

0:17:37.840 --> 0:17:41.640
<v Speaker 1>looking out for your kids anymore? Because nobody's seen they're

0:17:41.640 --> 0:17:45.480
<v Speaker 1>not doing that in Washington, and here's how I think

0:17:45.520 --> 0:17:51.399
<v Speaker 1>that's where the vulnerability lies politically. But we shall see so.

0:17:51.680 --> 0:17:55.560
<v Speaker 1>But i'd love your feedback the next couple of rounds

0:17:55.560 --> 0:17:58.920
<v Speaker 1>of asked Chucks. I will if you just send comments.

0:17:59.119 --> 0:18:03.360
<v Speaker 1>You know, you know your take, what you know. If

0:18:03.400 --> 0:18:06.600
<v Speaker 1>you've got a way to strengthen my comparison, I'd love

0:18:06.640 --> 0:18:09.320
<v Speaker 1>to hear it. If there's more holes in it, I'd

0:18:09.359 --> 0:18:12.400
<v Speaker 1>love to hear that too, So bring it on and

0:18:12.560 --> 0:18:15.399
<v Speaker 1>h later in an ass Chuck, we will respond to that.

0:18:15.840 --> 0:18:19.600
<v Speaker 1>Just a few other intriguing notes and political developments over

0:18:19.600 --> 0:18:24.120
<v Speaker 1>the last twenty four hours that I thought were worth mentioning.

0:18:24.560 --> 0:18:27.200
<v Speaker 1>One is that it looks like the Trump administration is

0:18:27.200 --> 0:18:30.040
<v Speaker 1>aggressively trying to figure out ways to help Andrew Cuomo

0:18:30.119 --> 0:18:31.840
<v Speaker 1>get a one on one with on Mam Donnie and

0:18:31.880 --> 0:18:34.920
<v Speaker 1>the mayor's race. New York Times broke the story, saying

0:18:34.960 --> 0:18:38.640
<v Speaker 1>that they're looking for they're seeing if there's we've seen

0:18:38.680 --> 0:18:43.800
<v Speaker 1>already this right. The independent candidate dropped out on Wednesday. Walden,

0:18:45.320 --> 0:18:49.320
<v Speaker 1>the Trump administration's looking for possible job opportunities for Carlos Sliwa.

0:18:49.359 --> 0:18:54.680
<v Speaker 1>They Republican nominee the Guardian Angel Guy and for Eric Adams,

0:18:55.600 --> 0:18:56.919
<v Speaker 1>and if they get out, then you get a one

0:18:56.920 --> 0:18:58.400
<v Speaker 1>on one between Cuomo and Mamdanni.

0:19:00.800 --> 0:19:02.880
<v Speaker 2>The question is is that enough for Cuomo? Right?

0:19:03.119 --> 0:19:05.520
<v Speaker 1>He couldn't win on one basically couldn't end up winning

0:19:05.520 --> 0:19:08.160
<v Speaker 1>a one on one because mom Donnie turned it into

0:19:08.200 --> 0:19:10.440
<v Speaker 1>a one on one in some ways, right, knowing how

0:19:10.520 --> 0:19:14.480
<v Speaker 1>ranked choice voting worked, by the way it just in aside,

0:19:15.359 --> 0:19:17.640
<v Speaker 1>Come on, New York City, why is that ranked choice

0:19:17.680 --> 0:19:20.119
<v Speaker 1>voting is only good for the Democratic primary but not

0:19:20.280 --> 0:19:21.560
<v Speaker 1>good for the electorate.

0:19:21.200 --> 0:19:21.680
<v Speaker 2>As a whole.

0:19:22.240 --> 0:19:24.600
<v Speaker 1>I actually think that's an unfair way to do it.

0:19:25.119 --> 0:19:27.080
<v Speaker 1>If you're not going to have ranked choice voting for

0:19:27.160 --> 0:19:29.480
<v Speaker 1>the general, then it shouldn't be allowed for the primary

0:19:29.520 --> 0:19:33.280
<v Speaker 1>and vice versa. Right, it should you know, either have

0:19:33.359 --> 0:19:35.639
<v Speaker 1>one way that you're doing the office or not. This

0:19:35.800 --> 0:19:39.080
<v Speaker 1>idea that it was ranked choice voting for the primary,

0:19:39.119 --> 0:19:42.719
<v Speaker 1>but it wasn't. You know, if it had been, then

0:19:42.760 --> 0:19:45.040
<v Speaker 1>you could have had this dynamic five way race that

0:19:45.119 --> 0:19:48.960
<v Speaker 1>might have made it different, and all sorts of interesting

0:19:49.760 --> 0:19:55.560
<v Speaker 1>calculations and different duopolies or partnerships or whatever you want

0:19:55.560 --> 0:20:00.040
<v Speaker 1>to call them could have been formed. But anyway, so

0:20:00.240 --> 0:20:05.080
<v Speaker 1>I should. You know, I kind of think the you're

0:20:05.119 --> 0:20:06.320
<v Speaker 1>either doing it one way.

0:20:06.240 --> 0:20:07.280
<v Speaker 2>Or you're doing it the other way.

0:20:07.320 --> 0:20:09.119
<v Speaker 1>This idea that it's one way in the primary and

0:20:09.119 --> 0:20:10.680
<v Speaker 1>one way in the general, I think is not fair,

0:20:11.440 --> 0:20:16.240
<v Speaker 1>not fair to the voters whichever it's. It's not fair

0:20:16.320 --> 0:20:18.119
<v Speaker 1>to primary voters that they had to do the rank

0:20:18.200 --> 0:20:19.880
<v Speaker 1>choice voting but they don't get to do it there

0:20:20.119 --> 0:20:23.119
<v Speaker 1>and vice versa. Personally, I'd love to have seen it

0:20:23.119 --> 0:20:25.560
<v Speaker 1>all toy thing. But the point I want to make here,

0:20:25.640 --> 0:20:28.159
<v Speaker 1>so if that happens and it looks like there's a

0:20:28.160 --> 0:20:30.119
<v Speaker 1>lot of you know, this is one of those things

0:20:30.119 --> 0:20:32.440
<v Speaker 1>that you know, when it's in the leaking out stage,

0:20:34.520 --> 0:20:36.720
<v Speaker 1>you know, there's a couple of reasons something gets leaked

0:20:36.760 --> 0:20:39.359
<v Speaker 1>like this. One is to kill it, or one is

0:20:39.400 --> 0:20:41.760
<v Speaker 1>to sort of use it as a trial balloon. So

0:20:43.080 --> 0:20:46.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, I don't know the Times reporting, but that's

0:20:46.000 --> 0:20:48.520
<v Speaker 1>one of two reasons why something like this leaks. It's

0:20:48.520 --> 0:20:51.520
<v Speaker 1>a trial balloon to see how see how it works,

0:20:51.680 --> 0:20:53.879
<v Speaker 1>or it's a it's somebody trying to kill it and

0:20:54.240 --> 0:20:56.920
<v Speaker 1>putting the idea out there could do that. But let's

0:20:56.960 --> 0:20:59.040
<v Speaker 1>say it happens. And the reason I say it's because

0:20:59.040 --> 0:21:01.600
<v Speaker 1>it's going to set up an inch interesting off year

0:21:01.800 --> 0:21:04.919
<v Speaker 1>messaging test, because then you're going to have a New

0:21:05.000 --> 0:21:06.959
<v Speaker 1>York City mayor's race that is going to be all

0:21:07.000 --> 0:21:10.240
<v Speaker 1>about Donald Trump, Right, Mam Donnie is going to try

0:21:10.240 --> 0:21:13.600
<v Speaker 1>to tie Cuomo to Trump and say this is Trump's candidate.

0:21:13.600 --> 0:21:17.760
<v Speaker 1>He orchestrated everything to do there, right, So I think

0:21:17.800 --> 0:21:19.600
<v Speaker 1>this is the This is to me the risk here

0:21:19.680 --> 0:21:22.600
<v Speaker 1>Cuomo's making like he's getting what he needs here, which

0:21:22.680 --> 0:21:24.320
<v Speaker 1>is cleared the field, and the only way the field

0:21:24.320 --> 0:21:27.159
<v Speaker 1>could get cleared was with Trump's help. So it's a

0:21:27.240 --> 0:21:30.200
<v Speaker 1>it's a it's an interesting it's an interesting situation that

0:21:30.280 --> 0:21:32.840
<v Speaker 1>he's in. Well, on the other side of the country,

0:21:32.960 --> 0:21:35.800
<v Speaker 1>you're going to have a campaign that's going to be

0:21:35.800 --> 0:21:39.240
<v Speaker 1>a referendum campaign for the gerrymandering right, for the new map.

0:21:39.520 --> 0:21:40.560
<v Speaker 2>Right. Gaven Newsom's gonna be.

0:21:40.520 --> 0:21:42.679
<v Speaker 1>Out there basically to beg the voters to, hey, we

0:21:42.760 --> 0:21:44.880
<v Speaker 1>want to temporarily do this, but we have to get

0:21:44.920 --> 0:21:47.480
<v Speaker 1>your permission to do it because of the Constitutional Amendment

0:21:47.840 --> 0:21:53.199
<v Speaker 1>on civilian redistricting And what do you think the primary

0:21:54.600 --> 0:21:57.440
<v Speaker 1>foil is going to be for the map, right, It's

0:21:57.440 --> 0:21:59.600
<v Speaker 1>going to be Donald Trump. So you're going to have

0:21:59.720 --> 0:22:02.280
<v Speaker 1>gap and run an anti Trump campaign in order to

0:22:02.280 --> 0:22:04.600
<v Speaker 1>sell his maps, because look, this is a you know,

0:22:05.040 --> 0:22:07.520
<v Speaker 1>if the campaign for those maps and we just uh

0:22:08.080 --> 0:22:13.359
<v Speaker 1>is about fairness, right, that amendment could go down and

0:22:13.400 --> 0:22:16.000
<v Speaker 1>Newsom could lose if he can flood the zone, and

0:22:16.040 --> 0:22:18.800
<v Speaker 1>it gets turned into hey, Donald Trump, you know this

0:22:18.880 --> 0:22:23.320
<v Speaker 1>is this is this is about checking Donald Trump. Then

0:22:23.359 --> 0:22:29.080
<v Speaker 1>you get those anti Trump independents more likely to say, Okay,

0:22:29.240 --> 0:22:33.040
<v Speaker 1>I'll vote for this temporarily even if I don't like

0:22:33.119 --> 0:22:35.840
<v Speaker 1>it because because of Trump. So then we're going to

0:22:35.920 --> 0:22:40.080
<v Speaker 1>have basically two Trump referendums in different ways, and two

0:22:40.119 --> 0:22:42.920
<v Speaker 1>of the bluest areas in the country, New York City

0:22:44.240 --> 0:22:49.320
<v Speaker 1>and California. Now you'd say, well, that means mom, Donnie's

0:22:49.320 --> 0:22:53.080
<v Speaker 1>going to be mayor and Newsom's going to get his remap. Yeah,

0:22:53.080 --> 0:22:56.720
<v Speaker 1>that's probably likely. But what if they don't both go

0:22:56.840 --> 0:22:59.840
<v Speaker 1>that way. What if the law and Oregon Order are

0:23:01.080 --> 0:23:04.879
<v Speaker 1>wins the day in New York and the fear of

0:23:04.920 --> 0:23:10.280
<v Speaker 1>socialism becomes a real thing and you do split and

0:23:10.359 --> 0:23:16.880
<v Speaker 1>wedge the Democratic vote there and in California. Right if

0:23:16.920 --> 0:23:19.399
<v Speaker 1>the counter to make it a referendum on Trump gets

0:23:19.400 --> 0:23:24.159
<v Speaker 1>turned into making a referendum on Newsome. Well, you know,

0:23:24.280 --> 0:23:28.000
<v Speaker 1>his job approval rating has been very polarizing in California,

0:23:28.040 --> 0:23:29.240
<v Speaker 1>and it's not been that healthy.

0:23:29.760 --> 0:23:30.320
<v Speaker 2>He's not a.

0:23:30.280 --> 0:23:33.679
<v Speaker 1>Governor that sits in the sixties. In fact, during campaign

0:23:33.720 --> 0:23:36.800
<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty four, he was in the mid forties. You know,

0:23:36.880 --> 0:23:39.800
<v Speaker 1>I had a couple of sources telling me that Kevin

0:23:39.920 --> 0:23:42.439
<v Speaker 1>was was basically looking for congressional races to help, and

0:23:42.440 --> 0:23:45.000
<v Speaker 1>they were like, please don't come, We don't you know.

0:23:45.160 --> 0:23:46.480
<v Speaker 2>And it was not personal.

0:23:46.600 --> 0:23:50.680
<v Speaker 1>It was business, meaning they didn't want to introduce, you know,

0:23:52.520 --> 0:23:59.679
<v Speaker 1>somebody who's right now was polarizing the electorate. So it

0:23:59.840 --> 0:24:03.520
<v Speaker 1>just look, the stakes every election now, the stakes are

0:24:03.600 --> 0:24:07.760
<v Speaker 1>higher than ever before, right each one of them. I

0:24:07.800 --> 0:24:11.520
<v Speaker 1>don't know where this is, just this is a fascinating

0:24:11.520 --> 0:24:16.440
<v Speaker 1>development that by mid October, somehow the off off year

0:24:16.480 --> 0:24:19.440
<v Speaker 1>elections may end up being a full fledged referendum on Trump.

0:24:19.440 --> 0:24:20.040
<v Speaker 2>We're already seeing.

0:24:20.119 --> 0:24:22.080
<v Speaker 1>It's interesting even in the Jersey governor's race, in the

0:24:22.160 --> 0:24:26.720
<v Speaker 1>Virginia governor's race, right you look, the Republican candidate in

0:24:26.840 --> 0:24:30.520
<v Speaker 1>Virginia governor, she's been running with Glenn Youngkin, and Glenn Youngkin.

0:24:30.320 --> 0:24:31.720
<v Speaker 2>Is the spokesperson for the campaign.

0:24:31.760 --> 0:24:35.160
<v Speaker 1>You see Glenn Youngkin in the TV ads, You don't

0:24:35.160 --> 0:24:36.200
<v Speaker 1>hear any mention of Trump.

0:24:36.800 --> 0:24:37.000
<v Speaker 2>Right.

0:24:37.960 --> 0:24:39.000
<v Speaker 1>All you have to do is read a poll in

0:24:39.080 --> 0:24:42.720
<v Speaker 1>Virginia and understand why. Meanwhile, what is Abigail Spaanberger doing.

0:24:42.800 --> 0:24:48.639
<v Speaker 1>She is trying to tie Winston merleseares to Trump, particularly

0:24:48.640 --> 0:24:50.879
<v Speaker 1>with the with the doze cuts and the federal government

0:24:50.920 --> 0:24:53.720
<v Speaker 1>workers and all of that, and it's going there. So

0:24:54.200 --> 0:24:56.520
<v Speaker 1>you certainly have a Democrat in Virginia that wants Trump.

0:24:56.760 --> 0:24:59.720
<v Speaker 1>Then you have sort of a cookie cutter campaign anti

0:24:59.720 --> 0:25:02.840
<v Speaker 1>Trump campaign that's being run now by mikey Ryl, the

0:25:02.920 --> 0:25:06.400
<v Speaker 1>Democratic nominee for New Jersey governor, where Chidarelli, who used

0:25:06.400 --> 0:25:08.840
<v Speaker 1>the Trump endorsement to sort of make sure everybody knew

0:25:08.880 --> 0:25:11.639
<v Speaker 1>he was the Republican to vote for. Suddenly he says, hey,

0:25:11.680 --> 0:25:14.200
<v Speaker 1>this is not a race about Trump. She's the one

0:25:14.200 --> 0:25:18.200
<v Speaker 1>that's obsessed with Trump, you know, and with Washington. I'm

0:25:18.240 --> 0:25:20.439
<v Speaker 1>here obsessed about New Jersey, right, which is an interesting

0:25:20.480 --> 0:25:24.920
<v Speaker 1>counter message. The point is is now we've got four

0:25:24.960 --> 0:25:27.840
<v Speaker 1>different races where some form of Trump is being used

0:25:27.840 --> 0:25:32.919
<v Speaker 1>as a referendum, and I think we're all curious, what

0:25:33.080 --> 0:25:35.320
<v Speaker 1>is the appetite for that in the electorate. Does that

0:25:35.400 --> 0:25:38.560
<v Speaker 1>motivate independence one way or the other. Is there an

0:25:38.600 --> 0:25:42.960
<v Speaker 1>exhaustion from it? Or are his actions turning voters off?

0:25:43.200 --> 0:25:44.359
<v Speaker 2>Does it end.

0:25:44.280 --> 0:25:46.720
<v Speaker 1>Up the more you talk about Trump, do you activate

0:25:46.760 --> 0:25:49.840
<v Speaker 1>the Trump only voters that seem to just show up

0:25:49.840 --> 0:25:52.080
<v Speaker 1>in presidentials but decide they have to get his back?

0:25:52.160 --> 0:25:52.320
<v Speaker 2>Right?

0:25:52.720 --> 0:25:55.800
<v Speaker 1>Point is a lot of what ifs here. This entire

0:25:55.880 --> 0:26:00.600
<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty five campaign, which felt semi local, eye right

0:26:00.840 --> 0:26:03.480
<v Speaker 1>in various ways. You know, you knew that Trump would

0:26:03.520 --> 0:26:07.040
<v Speaker 1>be used, you know, to push certain constituency group buttons.

0:26:07.880 --> 0:26:09.800
<v Speaker 1>But we're starting to see it may take more center

0:26:09.840 --> 0:26:12.040
<v Speaker 1>stage because Trump himself's right. Look at how much he's

0:26:12.040 --> 0:26:15.560
<v Speaker 1>intervening in New York City mayor and I'll be fascinated

0:26:15.560 --> 0:26:20.879
<v Speaker 1>to see whether, you know, how how he tries to

0:26:20.880 --> 0:26:23.520
<v Speaker 1>get involved in California, because I think he will, and

0:26:23.560 --> 0:26:25.639
<v Speaker 1>how he tries to get involved in New Jersey. I

0:26:25.640 --> 0:26:27.560
<v Speaker 1>do think he stays out of Virginia. I think in

0:26:27.600 --> 0:26:30.760
<v Speaker 1>some ways the Youngkin experience in love It and the

0:26:30.800 --> 0:26:35.000
<v Speaker 1>fact that Winson Earl Sears has made the decision I'm

0:26:35.080 --> 0:26:38.000
<v Speaker 1>running I'm going to try to run Youngkin's reelection it's

0:26:38.040 --> 0:26:39.040
<v Speaker 1>her only path.

0:26:39.960 --> 0:26:42.320
<v Speaker 2>It's probably a long shot.

0:26:43.359 --> 0:26:46.320
<v Speaker 1>But looking at the numbers, I see why I think

0:26:46.359 --> 0:26:49.160
<v Speaker 1>I'd be doing the same thing. The problem she's got

0:26:49.240 --> 0:26:52.200
<v Speaker 1>is Youngkin's approval numbers. While better than Trump's in Virginia,

0:26:52.840 --> 0:26:56.639
<v Speaker 1>they're not awesome, right, And that's h and that's ultimately

0:26:57.480 --> 0:27:16.879
<v Speaker 1>I think the probably the hurdle with that strategy.

0:27:18.840 --> 0:27:22.240
<v Speaker 2>All right, and now let's load up. Let's do some questions,

0:27:22.440 --> 0:27:29.400
<v Speaker 2>ask Chuck. But I think I actually have.

0:27:31.000 --> 0:27:33.000
<v Speaker 1>Given that this is the last episode for the week.

0:27:33.000 --> 0:27:35.040
<v Speaker 1>I'm going to try to let this go a little

0:27:35.040 --> 0:27:37.159
<v Speaker 1>bit here and get through. Let me see if I

0:27:37.200 --> 0:27:41.639
<v Speaker 1>can get through. My goal is seven questions. See if

0:27:41.640 --> 0:27:44.960
<v Speaker 1>I can do seven, maybe eight and thirty minutes. All right,

0:27:45.040 --> 0:27:48.359
<v Speaker 1>let's give it a shot. This one comes from David

0:27:48.960 --> 0:27:53.080
<v Speaker 1>from Oviado, Florida. I think it's Oviato, but if I'm wrong,

0:27:53.240 --> 0:27:53.919
<v Speaker 1>he will let me know.

0:27:54.960 --> 0:27:55.359
<v Speaker 2>All right.

0:27:55.400 --> 0:27:56.960
<v Speaker 1>So I'm a long time listener, going back to your

0:27:57.119 --> 0:27:59.480
<v Speaker 1>MTP days. I'm also a Florida boy, though a bit

0:27:59.520 --> 0:28:01.560
<v Speaker 1>north from you Someminal County. I think I remember you

0:28:01.560 --> 0:28:04.920
<v Speaker 1>once saying you have some relatives in Longwood. Yes, I've

0:28:04.920 --> 0:28:06.920
<v Speaker 1>listened to your complaints about Dems in regard to be

0:28:06.920 --> 0:28:09.439
<v Speaker 1>distingu which made it amusing when you also said we

0:28:09.480 --> 0:28:10.720
<v Speaker 1>have to deal with the world as it is, not

0:28:10.800 --> 0:28:13.359
<v Speaker 1>as we'd like it to be. Touche, Isn't that exactly

0:28:13.400 --> 0:28:15.440
<v Speaker 1>what DEM's pushing aggressive maps are doing. Not to get

0:28:15.440 --> 0:28:17.520
<v Speaker 1>too nerdy, but think of it like the old Star

0:28:17.560 --> 0:28:20.600
<v Speaker 1>Trek episode of Private Little War. The Klingons arm one side,

0:28:20.600 --> 0:28:23.040
<v Speaker 1>so the Federation arms the other to keep balance. It's messy,

0:28:23.040 --> 0:28:25.080
<v Speaker 1>but if Dems don't play by the same rules, they

0:28:25.119 --> 0:28:27.080
<v Speaker 1>may never control the House again in our lifetimes. What

0:28:27.240 --> 0:28:32.040
<v Speaker 1>say you, no, David, this is this is a fair question.

0:28:32.119 --> 0:28:35.560
<v Speaker 1>You're not alone in this pushback. One of my closest friends,

0:28:36.800 --> 0:28:41.719
<v Speaker 1>you know, somebody that I'll be arguing with, mostly about

0:28:41.840 --> 0:28:47.480
<v Speaker 1>Dodger baseball, but also about politics. He's a Angelino, he's

0:28:47.480 --> 0:28:51.200
<v Speaker 1>a Californian, and he and I were arguing about this,

0:28:52.080 --> 0:28:55.200
<v Speaker 1>and on one hand we both agree that this is terrible.

0:28:56.560 --> 0:29:00.560
<v Speaker 2>And yet what he says is, what's your alternative, you know?

0:29:00.640 --> 0:29:06.360
<v Speaker 1>And my alternative is run a campaign, right, And that's

0:29:06.360 --> 0:29:10.239
<v Speaker 1>the problem, right, is that there's no when your you know,

0:29:10.840 --> 0:29:13.520
<v Speaker 1>it all depends on how you view Trump and Trump

0:29:13.600 --> 0:29:17.080
<v Speaker 1>is do you think it is such a threat that

0:29:17.160 --> 0:29:23.120
<v Speaker 1>it is irreversible if some things happen, or is it

0:29:23.160 --> 0:29:26.320
<v Speaker 1>reversible if you stick to your guns, and eventually the

0:29:26.360 --> 0:29:29.800
<v Speaker 1>public's going to reward you for being right. And I

0:29:29.840 --> 0:29:32.600
<v Speaker 1>think it's sort of a combination of the two. I

0:29:32.640 --> 0:29:36.920
<v Speaker 1>will say this, I think the fact that Newsome has

0:29:37.000 --> 0:29:41.400
<v Speaker 1>to go to the voters cleans it up for me. Right,

0:29:41.520 --> 0:29:44.840
<v Speaker 1>It's like, look, it's he wants to fight this, but

0:29:44.920 --> 0:29:47.280
<v Speaker 1>he's got to get voter permission to do it. I

0:29:47.320 --> 0:29:49.320
<v Speaker 1>think it makes it more righteous than what Abbott did

0:29:49.320 --> 0:29:52.480
<v Speaker 1>in Texas. Right, He's not going to the voters to

0:29:52.560 --> 0:29:56.680
<v Speaker 1>ask this decision. So in that sense, I think I

0:29:56.720 --> 0:30:00.000
<v Speaker 1>think Gavin he gets better higher marks on the democra

0:30:00.840 --> 0:30:06.600
<v Speaker 1>tests than Abbott does. But this is, you know, if

0:30:06.600 --> 0:30:13.000
<v Speaker 1>you take it to its logical conclusion, we don't have

0:30:13.280 --> 0:30:17.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, we go it's almost like we've repealed the

0:30:17.800 --> 0:30:21.160
<v Speaker 1>amendment that allowed for Senate elections, you know, up until

0:30:21.520 --> 0:30:24.720
<v Speaker 1>essentially the mid nineteen teens, right, I think it was

0:30:24.760 --> 0:30:27.560
<v Speaker 1>by nineteen eighteen all senators were finally elected by the

0:30:27.560 --> 0:30:31.880
<v Speaker 1>people instead of state legislatures. Well, then we're literally reversing

0:30:31.880 --> 0:30:35.240
<v Speaker 1>what the founders wanted. We're going to be electing members

0:30:35.280 --> 0:30:38.520
<v Speaker 1>of Congress via the state legislatures and how they draw

0:30:38.560 --> 0:30:41.800
<v Speaker 1>the maps, and it's the senators that are the ones

0:30:41.840 --> 0:30:46.960
<v Speaker 1>that are actually more responsive to the actual people. So

0:30:47.080 --> 0:30:49.440
<v Speaker 1>I think when you throw to that to you really

0:30:49.440 --> 0:30:53.160
<v Speaker 1>have sort of you have taken the people out of

0:30:53.160 --> 0:30:58.200
<v Speaker 1>the people's house, right, So again I get it. There's

0:30:58.240 --> 0:31:00.800
<v Speaker 1>not a I don't have an answer of well, how

0:31:00.880 --> 0:31:03.000
<v Speaker 1>do you win this on the high ground? How do

0:31:03.040 --> 0:31:05.600
<v Speaker 1>you win this righteously? How do you win this principally?

0:31:07.120 --> 0:31:09.400
<v Speaker 1>You know, there's so many mistakes that Democrats have made

0:31:09.440 --> 0:31:12.200
<v Speaker 1>and how it treated Florida in Texas that you know,

0:31:12.280 --> 0:31:14.800
<v Speaker 1>you reap what you sew. You know, they're getting bullied

0:31:14.840 --> 0:31:18.080
<v Speaker 1>by the majority party in both states. Why because they surrendered.

0:31:18.520 --> 0:31:21.640
<v Speaker 1>The National Party surrendered in Florida and never you know,

0:31:21.800 --> 0:31:24.440
<v Speaker 1>only talked a good game in Texas, never actually backed

0:31:24.440 --> 0:31:28.080
<v Speaker 1>it up with resources and investment. And I'm not talking

0:31:28.160 --> 0:31:31.680
<v Speaker 1>about investments for one election or for six months. I'm

0:31:31.720 --> 0:31:34.200
<v Speaker 1>talking the long term, right, These are ten year projects.

0:31:34.920 --> 0:31:37.520
<v Speaker 1>And now, guess what, twenty thirty two is going to

0:31:37.520 --> 0:31:40.400
<v Speaker 1>be a disaster for the Democrats and that first presidential

0:31:40.440 --> 0:31:44.600
<v Speaker 1>election after reapportionment with Texas gaining more electoral votes, Florida

0:31:44.640 --> 0:31:46.600
<v Speaker 1>gaining more electoral votes, Idaho gaining.

0:31:46.400 --> 0:31:49.800
<v Speaker 2>More electoral votes. Big, big problem.

0:31:49.840 --> 0:31:52.760
<v Speaker 1>It's going to make Georgia North Carolina Democrats are going

0:31:52.800 --> 0:31:56.080
<v Speaker 1>to have to win both states every time, plus those

0:31:56.120 --> 0:31:58.600
<v Speaker 1>three Midwestern states and oh, by the way, that are

0:31:58.640 --> 0:32:03.720
<v Speaker 1>shrinking in importance than still very competitive deal with and

0:32:03.920 --> 0:32:07.080
<v Speaker 1>probably you're going to throw in a Minnesota, which is

0:32:07.120 --> 0:32:09.680
<v Speaker 1>going to which continues to creep closer and closer into

0:32:09.680 --> 0:32:15.000
<v Speaker 1>swing state status. So look, this, this is this is

0:32:15.120 --> 0:32:17.040
<v Speaker 1>on the You know, the Democrats are in this situation

0:32:17.120 --> 0:32:20.719
<v Speaker 1>because of their their inability to be a national party

0:32:20.880 --> 0:32:23.200
<v Speaker 1>right and their decision to pull out of Florida and

0:32:23.240 --> 0:32:26.720
<v Speaker 1>Texas and concede it all, and their focus on the

0:32:26.760 --> 0:32:29.920
<v Speaker 1>presidency and obsession with only when the Senate and the presidency.

0:32:30.640 --> 0:32:34.080
<v Speaker 1>Terrible investment into state legislative races. Really, I'll say this,

0:32:34.200 --> 0:32:37.600
<v Speaker 1>it has really improved over the last I'd say six years.

0:32:38.080 --> 0:32:40.440
<v Speaker 1>There's been a real effort to do better in these

0:32:40.480 --> 0:32:45.080
<v Speaker 1>state elections. So there's there there. They have played ketch up.

0:32:45.520 --> 0:32:49.720
<v Speaker 1>The Republican Party and the conservative movement has been so

0:32:49.920 --> 0:32:52.920
<v Speaker 1>much more focused on grassroots elections than the than the

0:32:53.080 --> 0:32:56.240
<v Speaker 1>progressive movement or the or the Democrats. You're seeing more

0:32:56.280 --> 0:32:58.680
<v Speaker 1>of them now look that way, But look at school boards,

0:32:59.000 --> 0:33:02.440
<v Speaker 1>look at you know in particular, is a perfect example

0:33:02.480 --> 0:33:06.280
<v Speaker 1>of where the conservative movement tapped into some grassroots and

0:33:07.000 --> 0:33:10.680
<v Speaker 1>got there and really were able to develop. So anyway,

0:33:11.600 --> 0:33:16.480
<v Speaker 1>I get it. You're not the first person that I've

0:33:16.480 --> 0:33:20.280
<v Speaker 1>had this debate with and I don't have a then

0:33:20.320 --> 0:33:20.840
<v Speaker 1>what should they?

0:33:21.000 --> 0:33:21.200
<v Speaker 2>You know?

0:33:21.480 --> 0:33:26.280
<v Speaker 1>Okay, this is a bad idea, is you know every

0:33:26.280 --> 0:33:27.120
<v Speaker 1>other one is worse?

0:33:27.800 --> 0:33:30.680
<v Speaker 2>And maybe that's so? All right?

0:33:30.720 --> 0:33:36.760
<v Speaker 1>Next question, this comes from at ten. He says, Hey, Chuck,

0:33:36.800 --> 0:33:39.200
<v Speaker 1>I'm at ten and I'm a longtime Canadian fan here

0:33:39.240 --> 0:33:41.920
<v Speaker 1>all right, thank you got a lot of Canadian pen pals.

0:33:42.120 --> 0:33:45.160
<v Speaker 1>I love you guys from the suburbs of Montreal and

0:33:45.600 --> 0:33:46.400
<v Speaker 1>Leah Spofan.

0:33:46.480 --> 0:33:48.480
<v Speaker 2>I hope. My question is kind of simple.

0:33:48.480 --> 0:33:50.000
<v Speaker 1>Do you think all of the maneuvers Trump is doing

0:33:50.040 --> 0:33:53.040
<v Speaker 1>about the mail and vote registration and identification hurdles he's

0:33:53.040 --> 0:33:54.920
<v Speaker 1>trying to put in place are a tactic to be

0:33:54.960 --> 0:33:57.120
<v Speaker 1>able to contest or even not recognize the results of

0:33:57.120 --> 0:33:59.640
<v Speaker 1>the twenty twenty six midterms. Thanks a lot, ps, I

0:33:59.640 --> 0:34:01.280
<v Speaker 1>cannot be become a fan of the Nationals as they

0:34:01.280 --> 0:34:02.080
<v Speaker 1>were stolen from US.

0:34:02.120 --> 0:34:04.240
<v Speaker 2>I totally understand that, but just so.

0:34:04.200 --> 0:34:08.120
<v Speaker 1>You know, I have become a Montreal Exposed collector of

0:34:08.200 --> 0:34:14.320
<v Speaker 1>sorts as a way of my homage to the Nationals.

0:34:14.160 --> 0:34:17.680
<v Speaker 1>It kind of helps that the Exposed team of both

0:34:17.680 --> 0:34:20.520
<v Speaker 1>eighty one and ninety four are very familiar to me.

0:34:20.960 --> 0:34:24.319
<v Speaker 1>I was a Dodger fan back in the day, and

0:34:24.480 --> 0:34:27.399
<v Speaker 1>particularly the eighty one team the Dodgers. The biggest hurdle

0:34:27.440 --> 0:34:29.320
<v Speaker 1>of the Dodgers face before facing the Yankees in the

0:34:29.320 --> 0:34:32.920
<v Speaker 1>World Series was that tremendous Expo the second best Expo

0:34:33.040 --> 0:34:35.040
<v Speaker 1>team of all time, the best one being, of course,

0:34:35.040 --> 0:34:36.200
<v Speaker 1>the nineteen ninety fourteen.

0:34:37.800 --> 0:34:39.279
<v Speaker 2>So I get it.

0:34:40.080 --> 0:34:43.880
<v Speaker 1>You should know in our Ring of Honor in Nationals Park,

0:34:44.600 --> 0:34:46.680
<v Speaker 1>all of the Expos Hall of Famers are in there.

0:34:46.760 --> 0:34:53.799
<v Speaker 1>Gary Carter, Tim Rains, Andre Dawson. So I will give

0:34:53.840 --> 0:34:56.839
<v Speaker 1>the Nationals credit. They do try, even though I think

0:34:56.880 --> 0:34:59.239
<v Speaker 1>the original owner of the Exposers screwed it up go

0:34:59.360 --> 0:35:01.719
<v Speaker 1>handed the mar which I always felt as some sort

0:35:01.719 --> 0:35:04.840
<v Speaker 1>of personal affront to me. Right, I took it very personally.

0:35:05.040 --> 0:35:07.400
<v Speaker 1>The jeweler, the jeweler who screwed up the expos then

0:35:07.480 --> 0:35:09.400
<v Speaker 1>came down to the Marlins and somehow messed it up

0:35:09.440 --> 0:35:11.440
<v Speaker 1>even more and got a free baseball team to boot.

0:35:12.200 --> 0:35:14.680
<v Speaker 2>But I digress. Let me get to your basic your

0:35:15.239 --> 0:35:17.839
<v Speaker 2>question here. It's an interesting thesis.

0:35:18.600 --> 0:35:21.080
<v Speaker 1>You know, what does he does he need all of

0:35:21.080 --> 0:35:23.520
<v Speaker 1>this to contest the results of election?

0:35:24.200 --> 0:35:24.359
<v Speaker 2>Right?

0:35:24.920 --> 0:35:26.719
<v Speaker 1>I think if he doesn't like the results, he's going

0:35:26.800 --> 0:35:30.759
<v Speaker 1>to contest it regardless of this. Now, let me get

0:35:30.760 --> 0:35:34.200
<v Speaker 1>to the specifics of what he's trying to do. If

0:35:34.239 --> 0:35:37.920
<v Speaker 1>I were the Democrats, I'd agree to do this. And

0:35:37.960 --> 0:35:44.600
<v Speaker 1>here's why the Democratic Party right now, it's voters follow

0:35:44.600 --> 0:35:46.880
<v Speaker 1>all the rules, know all the rules, are aware of

0:35:46.880 --> 0:35:49.200
<v Speaker 1>what you need to vote. They're the ones that show

0:35:49.239 --> 0:35:51.880
<v Speaker 1>up in every special election. Why do Democrats continue to

0:35:52.000 --> 0:35:55.640
<v Speaker 1>overperform in any special election, whether it's in the suburbs

0:35:55.640 --> 0:35:58.600
<v Speaker 1>of Orlando, the suburbs of Des Moines, you name it, right,

0:35:58.640 --> 0:36:04.600
<v Speaker 1>They're overperforming everywhere because the suburban sort of super voter

0:36:05.120 --> 0:36:08.239
<v Speaker 1>has gone from leaning right to leaning left. They're not

0:36:08.320 --> 0:36:11.040
<v Speaker 1>all registered Democrats, that a lot of them moved from

0:36:11.040 --> 0:36:14.440
<v Speaker 1>being registered Republicans registered independence. But it is why this

0:36:14.520 --> 0:36:17.320
<v Speaker 1>suburban vote and why in the midterms in particular, Democrats

0:36:17.360 --> 0:36:19.800
<v Speaker 1>now have a built in advantage.

0:36:20.680 --> 0:36:21.480
<v Speaker 2>The folks who.

0:36:21.360 --> 0:36:26.359
<v Speaker 1>Don't necessarily follow the specifics of voting all the time.

0:36:26.400 --> 0:36:29.000
<v Speaker 1>The non super voters are more likely to support Trump.

0:36:29.520 --> 0:36:31.680
<v Speaker 1>And so if you did voter ID laws, I think

0:36:31.719 --> 0:36:34.680
<v Speaker 1>it's more Trump voters would end up not being qualified

0:36:34.680 --> 0:36:36.239
<v Speaker 1>to get to the polls. You get rid of mail

0:36:36.280 --> 0:36:39.640
<v Speaker 1>in balloting, and you do early in person, it's more

0:36:39.719 --> 0:36:43.200
<v Speaker 1>likely the casual voter is a Trump voter. The casual

0:36:43.320 --> 0:36:47.040
<v Speaker 1>voter leans right these days. So the more impediments you

0:36:47.080 --> 0:36:51.239
<v Speaker 1>put into voting ten years ago that was going to

0:36:51.320 --> 0:36:56.000
<v Speaker 1>hurt the Democrats, now it's going to hurt the Republicans.

0:36:56.280 --> 0:36:58.439
<v Speaker 1>So if you want to totally play game theory here,

0:37:00.640 --> 0:37:03.040
<v Speaker 1>I believe it was. Matthew Iglesias in the last week

0:37:03.080 --> 0:37:05.920
<v Speaker 1>did a really good dive on this where he said,

0:37:05.960 --> 0:37:10.160
<v Speaker 1>you know, if Democrats get the House, this should be

0:37:10.640 --> 0:37:14.200
<v Speaker 1>that in exchange for basically funding early more early in

0:37:14.200 --> 0:37:19.560
<v Speaker 1>person voting, that Democrats ought to make the compromise voter

0:37:19.680 --> 0:37:22.360
<v Speaker 1>ID and getting rid of mail in voting for everybody

0:37:22.360 --> 0:37:26.040
<v Speaker 1>except the military. Because all of it, all of these

0:37:27.000 --> 0:37:31.040
<v Speaker 1>if you look at the demographics of each party, all

0:37:31.080 --> 0:37:35.040
<v Speaker 1>of these impediments that Trump wants to introduce are going

0:37:35.120 --> 0:37:38.719
<v Speaker 1>to impact Republicans a lot more these.

0:37:38.680 --> 0:37:41.520
<v Speaker 2>Days than it impacts Democrats. Just something that you want.

0:37:43.200 --> 0:37:45.239
<v Speaker 1>I am not Tony Korneisers who I do not have

0:37:45.320 --> 0:37:47.800
<v Speaker 1>my maple leaf flag, but maybe I ought to acquire

0:37:47.800 --> 0:37:52.960
<v Speaker 1>one from my Canadian friends. So anyway, I hope you

0:37:52.960 --> 0:37:56.080
<v Speaker 1>will at least not be a NAT's hater. By the way,

0:37:56.200 --> 0:37:59.680
<v Speaker 1>all right, next question comes from John in New Jersey.

0:38:00.400 --> 0:38:02.359
<v Speaker 1>Just a quick question in comment your substeck this week

0:38:02.360 --> 0:38:05.560
<v Speaker 1>feels spot on regarding Democrats fighting for something, but also

0:38:05.600 --> 0:38:07.879
<v Speaker 1>feels a little in conflict with your perspective on dem

0:38:07.920 --> 0:38:11.600
<v Speaker 1>state Texas state legislatures fleeing the special session last month.

0:38:11.640 --> 0:38:13.200
<v Speaker 1>Is there a line for you where fighting will always

0:38:13.239 --> 0:38:15.840
<v Speaker 1>be the wrong move? Maybe these are not conflicting opinions

0:38:15.840 --> 0:38:21.480
<v Speaker 1>at all. Thanks again for everything. Let's go mets it. Look,

0:38:21.560 --> 0:38:26.200
<v Speaker 1>it's the question, is you know if you're going to

0:38:26.280 --> 0:38:30.719
<v Speaker 1>pro You know, most protests fail in the moment, but

0:38:31.760 --> 0:38:34.920
<v Speaker 1>a protest movement that fails in the moment builds support

0:38:35.040 --> 0:38:36.040
<v Speaker 1>and can succeed in.

0:38:36.000 --> 0:38:36.520
<v Speaker 2>The long term.

0:38:36.600 --> 0:38:40.520
<v Speaker 1>Right, So it just it's all about do you have

0:38:40.560 --> 0:38:43.360
<v Speaker 1>an endgame and do you have an exit strategy? I

0:38:43.400 --> 0:38:46.839
<v Speaker 1>think I think what Texas Democrats did was within the

0:38:47.520 --> 0:38:49.919
<v Speaker 1>To me, I had no issue with what they did.

0:38:50.520 --> 0:38:52.840
<v Speaker 1>If you actually saw, I thought what they were doing

0:38:53.000 --> 0:38:55.960
<v Speaker 1>was within that's what you should be doing. Hey, we're

0:38:55.960 --> 0:38:59.080
<v Speaker 1>gonna deny a quorum. Okay, they said, fine, we're gonna

0:38:59.120 --> 0:39:02.000
<v Speaker 1>get They were looking to see were there any Republicans

0:39:02.080 --> 0:39:04.120
<v Speaker 1>that were going to be saying, you know what, maybe

0:39:04.160 --> 0:39:08.359
<v Speaker 1>they're right, So it was it was worth trying to see.

0:39:08.360 --> 0:39:10.279
<v Speaker 1>So I was never critical of what they were doing.

0:39:10.320 --> 0:39:15.040
<v Speaker 1>My criticism is for essentially is going to other states

0:39:15.040 --> 0:39:18.960
<v Speaker 1>and disenfranchising voters there in the name of competing with Texas.

0:39:18.960 --> 0:39:23.200
<v Speaker 1>Who's disenfranchising voters there? Right, That's that's what I'm I

0:39:23.520 --> 0:39:26.920
<v Speaker 1>think it's it's more of the principle. But you know,

0:39:27.000 --> 0:39:29.799
<v Speaker 1>to me, I actually think the Texas Democrats sort of

0:39:30.360 --> 0:39:32.680
<v Speaker 1>they did what they did it they denied the quorum

0:39:32.719 --> 0:39:34.560
<v Speaker 1>and left, and I think it was it was all

0:39:34.560 --> 0:39:38.080
<v Speaker 1>about testing the will of them of the right. We

0:39:38.239 --> 0:39:40.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, we had all heard the whispers you're gonna

0:39:40.880 --> 0:39:43.840
<v Speaker 1>and if you just listened to the conversation, hopefully you

0:39:43.880 --> 0:39:46.439
<v Speaker 1>just heard the conversation with Jake and Anna, where Jake

0:39:47.440 --> 0:39:50.880
<v Speaker 1>spoke of an anonymous Texas Republican who said, I just

0:39:50.920 --> 0:39:52.799
<v Speaker 1>got to know this district, now you're making me learn

0:39:52.800 --> 0:39:56.520
<v Speaker 1>another one. There were no Republicans that wanted this in

0:39:56.600 --> 0:40:00.680
<v Speaker 1>Texas except I don't think there was any Textan that

0:40:00.680 --> 0:40:02.960
<v Speaker 1>wanted It was Donald Trump, and nobody wants to say

0:40:02.960 --> 0:40:03.520
<v Speaker 1>no to Trump.

0:40:04.600 --> 0:40:07.040
<v Speaker 2>So I think what they did.

0:40:07.239 --> 0:40:10.080
<v Speaker 1>You leave the state and you basically see, you know,

0:40:10.560 --> 0:40:13.400
<v Speaker 1>if we kill one special session, will they you know,

0:40:13.440 --> 0:40:15.799
<v Speaker 1>will they concede? And the answer was no. They called

0:40:15.840 --> 0:40:17.320
<v Speaker 1>another one, will they fold?

0:40:17.360 --> 0:40:18.040
<v Speaker 2>The answer was no.

0:40:18.200 --> 0:40:21.080
<v Speaker 1>So at some point, you know and what And I

0:40:21.120 --> 0:40:24.960
<v Speaker 1>would argue that actually what the Texas Democratic legislators did

0:40:25.360 --> 0:40:26.680
<v Speaker 1>was successful.

0:40:26.120 --> 0:40:26.880
<v Speaker 2>In this respect.

0:40:27.160 --> 0:40:31.200
<v Speaker 1>They got national attention, It brought into focus this issue.

0:40:31.520 --> 0:40:38.960
<v Speaker 1>Now it may have triggered this nationwide redistricting war, but

0:40:39.120 --> 0:40:42.160
<v Speaker 1>ultimately it gave Democrats something to fight for for the

0:40:42.200 --> 0:40:44.960
<v Speaker 1>first time, and they are fighting and I and to me,

0:40:45.080 --> 0:40:50.000
<v Speaker 1>it's that response that I see happening with Newsome that

0:40:50.560 --> 0:40:53.240
<v Speaker 1>makes me think that. Look and again, when you're arguing

0:40:53.239 --> 0:40:59.160
<v Speaker 1>over our budget, you know, you know we've I don't

0:40:59.200 --> 0:41:01.320
<v Speaker 1>know if you've ever bought a car, but the most

0:41:01.840 --> 0:41:04.760
<v Speaker 1>the greatest feeling I've ever had is walking away from

0:41:05.080 --> 0:41:08.200
<v Speaker 1>a purchase right. I've done it only once.

0:41:08.800 --> 0:41:08.960
<v Speaker 2>Right.

0:41:09.120 --> 0:41:11.600
<v Speaker 1>Most of the time when I've gone to buy a car,

0:41:11.840 --> 0:41:13.600
<v Speaker 1>I knew what I wanted. I kind of knew the

0:41:13.640 --> 0:41:15.120
<v Speaker 1>price range. I'm like, if they just hit this, and

0:41:15.120 --> 0:41:18.239
<v Speaker 1>I've never had an issue. But one time I ran

0:41:18.239 --> 0:41:21.760
<v Speaker 1>into an issue and I thought, no, they're playing games.

0:41:21.760 --> 0:41:24.640
<v Speaker 1>I'm out, And sure enough it worked. I literally had

0:41:24.680 --> 0:41:26.799
<v Speaker 1>to leave and it wasn't until the next day that

0:41:26.840 --> 0:41:29.440
<v Speaker 1>they called. But I was like, vindication is mine. I

0:41:29.480 --> 0:41:32.719
<v Speaker 1>did my own little you know, Chevrolet shutdown.

0:41:33.200 --> 0:41:34.960
<v Speaker 2>It was for a Chevrolet.

0:41:35.200 --> 0:41:37.080
<v Speaker 1>I'm not going to say the dealership because I actually

0:41:37.080 --> 0:41:42.560
<v Speaker 1>liked the dealership that I deal with over there. So

0:41:42.640 --> 0:41:45.200
<v Speaker 1>it is empowering, but it's a to me legitimate It's

0:41:45.239 --> 0:41:47.720
<v Speaker 1>a legitimate moment when you're doing dealing with the budget

0:41:47.760 --> 0:41:50.440
<v Speaker 1>and spending and all of that. To not agree to

0:41:50.480 --> 0:41:53.239
<v Speaker 1>the deal, right, you've got skin in the game. So

0:41:54.520 --> 0:41:56.680
<v Speaker 1>but what I do think the Democrats have to do

0:41:56.760 --> 0:42:01.000
<v Speaker 1>is know what your exit strategy is. What are you willing,

0:42:01.200 --> 0:42:03.960
<v Speaker 1>what are you fighting for? Have a specific goal in mind,

0:42:04.000 --> 0:42:05.960
<v Speaker 1>And that's what I was laying out. If you're going

0:42:06.000 --> 0:42:08.279
<v Speaker 1>to do this, is it for Obama? You know what

0:42:08.360 --> 0:42:12.520
<v Speaker 1>will bring you to the table. Obamacare subsidies. I ultimately

0:42:12.520 --> 0:42:14.719
<v Speaker 1>think that's a pretty good thing to fight for. Healthcare

0:42:15.239 --> 0:42:18.759
<v Speaker 1>is the better the best issue Democrat. Democrats have proven

0:42:18.760 --> 0:42:20.560
<v Speaker 1>to be better about fighting for that issue than any

0:42:20.560 --> 0:42:23.319
<v Speaker 1>other over the last decade, and voters are moved by it.

0:42:24.280 --> 0:42:25.440
<v Speaker 2>So that would be something.

0:42:26.040 --> 0:42:28.680
<v Speaker 1>Is it for demanding a vote on the tariffs? That's

0:42:28.680 --> 0:42:31.279
<v Speaker 1>something to do, right, you know, But but have a

0:42:31.320 --> 0:42:35.880
<v Speaker 1>demand that is semi realistic to be met so that

0:42:35.960 --> 0:42:38.400
<v Speaker 1>you have an exit strategy and then when it's not

0:42:38.560 --> 0:42:42.439
<v Speaker 1>met you you can come across as the reasonable one.

0:42:42.760 --> 0:42:47.080
<v Speaker 1>Right there, the Republican deal is likely to be fully clean,

0:42:47.840 --> 0:42:49.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, continuing resolution.

0:42:50.000 --> 0:42:51.560
<v Speaker 2>Is it really going to be fully clean? Right?

0:42:51.640 --> 0:42:54.239
<v Speaker 1>That's going to be one test, But that's how they're

0:42:54.280 --> 0:42:56.880
<v Speaker 1>going to try to have the high ground. So you

0:42:56.920 --> 0:42:59.480
<v Speaker 1>know it is I think it's a legitimate moment to

0:42:59.520 --> 0:43:05.160
<v Speaker 1>do this, but you better know you better have a

0:43:05.200 --> 0:43:09.560
<v Speaker 1>clear vision of why you're doing it and a clear

0:43:09.600 --> 0:43:12.080
<v Speaker 1>explanation to the voters for why you're doing it. And

0:43:12.120 --> 0:43:14.319
<v Speaker 1>if you know, we know it's because you don't trust

0:43:14.360 --> 0:43:18.759
<v Speaker 1>Trump with spending, that's fine, but be specific on what

0:43:18.800 --> 0:43:20.759
<v Speaker 1>you're looking for, Like, look, we don't trust him, But

0:43:20.880 --> 0:43:24.000
<v Speaker 1>can we at least get the Obama tax credits here?

0:43:24.000 --> 0:43:26.600
<v Speaker 1>Because guess who also wants that. There's quite a few

0:43:26.600 --> 0:43:29.120
<v Speaker 1>Republican senators who don't like the Medicaid cuts, who would

0:43:29.160 --> 0:43:32.279
<v Speaker 1>like to throw a bone at their constituents and that

0:43:32.440 --> 0:43:36.040
<v Speaker 1>not also take away the subsidies on Obamacare. So you know,

0:43:36.360 --> 0:43:39.040
<v Speaker 1>I actually think it's a reasonable thing to do, and

0:43:39.360 --> 0:43:41.319
<v Speaker 1>at this point you might as well get on the

0:43:41.360 --> 0:43:44.399
<v Speaker 1>side of being getting credit for that rather than have

0:43:44.480 --> 0:43:47.279
<v Speaker 1>Republicans do it, and Trump tries to take credit for it,

0:43:47.880 --> 0:43:52.080
<v Speaker 1>which he's very good at doing. All right. Next question

0:43:52.680 --> 0:43:57.320
<v Speaker 1>comes from an anonymous person from Granite Falls, North Carolina,

0:43:58.280 --> 0:44:00.760
<v Speaker 1>but he's not too anonymous because he starts with la Chiesai.

0:44:01.520 --> 0:44:04.040
<v Speaker 1>And for those of you that know, you know, I

0:44:04.080 --> 0:44:06.000
<v Speaker 1>appreciate it. I hope you heard my picks this week

0:44:06.080 --> 0:44:09.239
<v Speaker 1>on Tony I listened to your podcasts and many other

0:44:09.280 --> 0:44:12.120
<v Speaker 1>political and business podcasts. Why doesn't anyone mention that President

0:44:12.160 --> 0:44:15.160
<v Speaker 1>Trump was found to have fraudulently filled out loan documents

0:44:15.160 --> 0:44:18.640
<v Speaker 1>in a civil case. That such a point, there's always

0:44:18.680 --> 0:44:20.760
<v Speaker 1>a Trump issue, let alone a Trump tweet.

0:44:20.840 --> 0:44:21.040
<v Speaker 2>Right.

0:44:21.760 --> 0:44:24.840
<v Speaker 1>The Lisa Cook issues is all about filling out loan documents.

0:44:24.920 --> 0:44:27.320
<v Speaker 1>If she can't be trusted to a fed governor ship,

0:44:27.320 --> 0:44:29.440
<v Speaker 1>why should the president be trusted to be the president?

0:44:30.719 --> 0:44:34.680
<v Speaker 1>You know, it's it all goes back to the original

0:44:34.719 --> 0:44:39.160
<v Speaker 1>campaign against Donald Trump that Democrats. You know, look, yes,

0:44:39.200 --> 0:44:41.759
<v Speaker 1>you're right about all of this, and there are so

0:44:42.040 --> 0:44:45.520
<v Speaker 1>there is such a laundry list of terrible business practices

0:44:45.760 --> 0:44:50.839
<v Speaker 1>and terrible character traits that Trump has accumulated over four

0:44:50.880 --> 0:44:55.680
<v Speaker 1>decades that you know how often Republicans that ran against

0:44:55.719 --> 0:44:59.040
<v Speaker 1>him in twenty fifteen and twenty sixteen, and how often

0:44:59.080 --> 0:45:02.080
<v Speaker 1>Democrats and Hillary Clinton who ran against him in twenty

0:45:02.080 --> 0:45:05.160
<v Speaker 1>fifteen and twenty sixteen. You know how often they did

0:45:05.200 --> 0:45:11.839
<v Speaker 1>that campaign against him? It was practically nothing, okay, And

0:45:11.880 --> 0:45:16.600
<v Speaker 1>I remember it being and this was the biggest mistake

0:45:16.719 --> 0:45:19.719
<v Speaker 1>that everybody made. There was an assumption that everybody knew

0:45:19.800 --> 0:45:22.760
<v Speaker 1>the bad stuff about Trump, that because you knew Trump,

0:45:22.760 --> 0:45:25.600
<v Speaker 1>that you knew at all the good and the bad.

0:45:27.360 --> 0:45:29.839
<v Speaker 1>And I think there was a presumption I can tell

0:45:29.840 --> 0:45:31.400
<v Speaker 1>you this, I had a presumption.

0:45:31.600 --> 0:45:34.960
<v Speaker 2>I'll just speak for myself that I'm like, well.

0:45:34.960 --> 0:45:37.120
<v Speaker 1>We all know this guy's like always full of shit

0:45:37.160 --> 0:45:40.600
<v Speaker 1>in New York, right, Like nobody thinks he's a real developer.

0:45:40.960 --> 0:45:44.080
<v Speaker 1>You know, it's always sort of a phony thing. This

0:45:44.360 --> 0:45:47.759
<v Speaker 1>like Trump branded stuff is always phony. Everybody gets it right,

0:45:47.800 --> 0:45:49.719
<v Speaker 1>that this is all a griff, that it's all sort of,

0:45:50.120 --> 0:45:52.200
<v Speaker 1>you know, a show that it isn't there's really no

0:45:52.280 --> 0:45:56.640
<v Speaker 1>substance that there's really no Trump business beyond owning that building,

0:45:56.680 --> 0:45:59.800
<v Speaker 1>That there was no there there, that his golf courses

0:45:59.840 --> 0:46:03.880
<v Speaker 1>were all leveraged and everything was leveraged, and it was

0:46:04.320 --> 0:46:06.759
<v Speaker 1>a lot more of o PM other people's money that

0:46:06.840 --> 0:46:09.000
<v Speaker 1>he leased his name to buildings. He wasn't even an

0:46:09.000 --> 0:46:12.880
<v Speaker 1>owner of these properties. He was just licensing his brand.

0:46:14.880 --> 0:46:16.879
<v Speaker 1>But nobody did, you know when you think about the

0:46:16.960 --> 0:46:20.360
<v Speaker 1>campaign against Mitt Romney, which took every business deal he

0:46:20.440 --> 0:46:24.680
<v Speaker 1>ever did at Bain and educated the public with it

0:46:25.080 --> 0:46:33.000
<v Speaker 1>and made direct comparisons right now, because most because political

0:46:33.000 --> 0:46:35.520
<v Speaker 1>opponents of Romney, both on the Republican primary and in

0:46:35.560 --> 0:46:37.920
<v Speaker 1>the Democratic side, were like, hey, I don't think the

0:46:38.000 --> 0:46:40.320
<v Speaker 1>voters know this, or they want to educate the voters

0:46:40.520 --> 0:46:43.399
<v Speaker 1>and see if they really want this sort of very

0:46:43.480 --> 0:46:48.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, this businessman in charge of the government. That

0:46:48.120 --> 0:46:51.680
<v Speaker 1>that campaign was never run against Trump, right, Jeb Bush

0:46:51.680 --> 0:46:54.080
<v Speaker 1>spent more money trying to damage Marco Rubio.

0:46:53.920 --> 0:46:55.400
<v Speaker 2>Than he did. Donald Trump.

0:46:57.360 --> 0:47:02.080
<v Speaker 1>And Hillary Clinton kept doing the character things, kept going

0:47:02.120 --> 0:47:06.680
<v Speaker 1>to the Russia thing rather than frankly, if you did

0:47:06.680 --> 0:47:09.880
<v Speaker 1>the methodical f you just did the bankruptcies, and you

0:47:10.120 --> 0:47:13.359
<v Speaker 1>just did the financial funny business, and you just did

0:47:13.440 --> 0:47:17.319
<v Speaker 1>the grift that early on as sort of you may think,

0:47:17.360 --> 0:47:19.520
<v Speaker 1>you know Donald Trump and he's a fun guy in

0:47:19.560 --> 0:47:20.000
<v Speaker 1>this and this.

0:47:20.120 --> 0:47:20.719
<v Speaker 2>Did you know?

0:47:21.800 --> 0:47:23.919
<v Speaker 1>They never did that? And now it is too late.

0:47:24.880 --> 0:47:28.080
<v Speaker 1>Now it's all baked in. Now you know, now he

0:47:28.120 --> 0:47:30.880
<v Speaker 1>actually is wealthy. He wasn't a real billionaire. Now he

0:47:31.000 --> 0:47:34.600
<v Speaker 1>is on paper thanks to these bitcoin scams that he's

0:47:34.600 --> 0:47:38.359
<v Speaker 1>gotten himself involved in. It's you know, by the way,

0:47:38.400 --> 0:47:40.839
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think we've all learned apparently if you're

0:47:40.960 --> 0:47:44.560
<v Speaker 1>just a criminal and plain sight, no one cares. Right,

0:47:45.040 --> 0:47:47.160
<v Speaker 1>the cover up is the it we you know, it

0:47:47.280 --> 0:47:49.080
<v Speaker 1>always is. The cover up is worse than a crime,

0:47:49.120 --> 0:47:52.400
<v Speaker 1>forget it. The cover up is the only crime that

0:47:52.480 --> 0:47:56.279
<v Speaker 1>we seem to you know, we're all always outraged about

0:47:56.320 --> 0:47:59.880
<v Speaker 1>cover ups, Right, what's everybody's upset?

0:48:00.080 --> 0:48:02.400
<v Speaker 2>Uh? The cover up of the Epstein files.

0:48:04.239 --> 0:48:09.240
<v Speaker 1>But he's been accused of sexual assault and has actually

0:48:09.320 --> 0:48:14.319
<v Speaker 1>been held liable in a civil court. But that's out

0:48:14.400 --> 0:48:20.759
<v Speaker 1>in public, that's not covered up. It's so you're right

0:48:20.960 --> 0:48:25.120
<v Speaker 1>about the least of the comparisons, like, let's look at

0:48:25.160 --> 0:48:27.440
<v Speaker 1>all the mortgage loans that Donald Trump and all the

0:48:27.600 --> 0:48:31.000
<v Speaker 1>artificial I mean, one of the one of the ways

0:48:31.000 --> 0:48:35.080
<v Speaker 1>that they were trying to uh that they convicted Trump

0:48:35.840 --> 0:48:39.600
<v Speaker 1>was over the falsification of loan documents in New York.

0:48:40.160 --> 0:48:42.360
<v Speaker 1>That was that was sort of the angle that Leticia

0:48:42.440 --> 0:48:46.359
<v Speaker 1>James took. Look you go through these LLCs that he

0:48:46.400 --> 0:48:49.360
<v Speaker 1>creates for every golf course he acquires, and I promise

0:48:49.400 --> 0:48:52.799
<v Speaker 1>you look at those loan documents and the assessments that

0:48:52.880 --> 0:48:57.040
<v Speaker 1>they you know, the the they somehow, you know, he

0:48:57.239 --> 0:49:00.160
<v Speaker 1>very cleverly always seems to get sort of too two

0:49:00.200 --> 0:49:03.840
<v Speaker 1>different inspections. One that lowers the price so he pays

0:49:03.880 --> 0:49:07.239
<v Speaker 1>low property taxes, and then one that overvalues the price

0:49:07.320 --> 0:49:09.200
<v Speaker 1>so we can borrow extra money on the on the

0:49:09.239 --> 0:49:11.080
<v Speaker 1>equity line and use that over there.

0:49:11.680 --> 0:49:12.480
<v Speaker 2>You know, you're going to.

0:49:12.480 --> 0:49:16.600
<v Speaker 1>Tell me that that that those forms that the same.

0:49:16.800 --> 0:49:19.440
<v Speaker 1>He's filed two sets of forms with two sets of values,

0:49:20.280 --> 0:49:22.600
<v Speaker 1>all are in government documents that would all be loan

0:49:22.680 --> 0:49:25.680
<v Speaker 1>you know, mortgage fraud. We already went down that road

0:49:25.680 --> 0:49:28.759
<v Speaker 1>with him. But anyway, again, I go back to the

0:49:28.840 --> 0:49:35.360
<v Speaker 1>original sin on Trump was not was was was assuming

0:49:35.400 --> 0:49:38.920
<v Speaker 1>everybody knew everything about him? And that was I think

0:49:38.960 --> 0:49:44.360
<v Speaker 1>the original sin. All right, next question comes from pure Illinois.

0:49:44.800 --> 0:49:45.960
<v Speaker 1>Back in the day, it used to be how's a

0:49:46.000 --> 0:49:48.640
<v Speaker 1>plane in Peoria? That was the I think there was

0:49:48.680 --> 0:49:51.880
<v Speaker 1>an LBJ. What LBJ care about? Evert dirksin people like that.

0:49:52.000 --> 0:49:54.200
<v Speaker 1>But anyway, let's let's go here. I'm at number five.

0:49:55.320 --> 0:49:57.279
<v Speaker 1>I think I might do it. We might get eight

0:49:57.320 --> 0:50:01.319
<v Speaker 1>and a half hour. We shall see Greg W. From

0:50:01.360 --> 0:50:03.800
<v Speaker 1>Pure Illinois. Hey, Chuck, my question focus is on redistricting.

0:50:03.800 --> 0:50:06.000
<v Speaker 1>I agree it's shortsighted to fight fire with fire. So

0:50:06.000 --> 0:50:07.640
<v Speaker 1>how long and difficult would it be for the DNC

0:50:07.760 --> 0:50:09.560
<v Speaker 1>to find viable candidates and build the support in the

0:50:09.560 --> 0:50:12.160
<v Speaker 1>groundwork in the weaker red districts, especially since the DNC

0:50:12.239 --> 0:50:14.919
<v Speaker 1>has spent two years de investing in red states. Thank

0:50:14.960 --> 0:50:17.840
<v Speaker 1>you for also giving something for my son and I

0:50:17.960 --> 0:50:20.600
<v Speaker 1>to listen to and talk about sports and politics.

0:50:21.239 --> 0:50:22.399
<v Speaker 2>There you go. I'm by the way.

0:50:22.400 --> 0:50:25.600
<v Speaker 1>I'm slowly my son list loves to talk about sports.

0:50:25.760 --> 0:50:28.880
<v Speaker 1>He's slowly but surely getting more interested in politics, But

0:50:28.920 --> 0:50:31.359
<v Speaker 1>I understand why he's it's you know, when you grow

0:50:31.440 --> 0:50:34.960
<v Speaker 1>up in a political town, it's it's sometimes want the distraction.

0:50:35.200 --> 0:50:36.960
<v Speaker 1>So we spend a lot more time talking about sports.

0:50:37.000 --> 0:50:39.040
<v Speaker 1>But my son did text me over the weekend going, hey,

0:50:39.080 --> 0:50:41.000
<v Speaker 1>what's going on with Trump? Is he dead or alive?

0:50:41.880 --> 0:50:47.360
<v Speaker 1>Which tells you what his feed was feeding him there.

0:50:49.560 --> 0:50:56.400
<v Speaker 1>You know, I think this is where I think the

0:50:56.400 --> 0:51:01.480
<v Speaker 1>the attention that the State House Democrats gave to the

0:51:01.520 --> 0:51:06.239
<v Speaker 1>issue in theory should help with candidate recruiting. But you've

0:51:06.239 --> 0:51:09.719
<v Speaker 1>got to you know, you know, I'm curious if the

0:51:09.800 --> 0:51:11.799
<v Speaker 1>DNC or the d Triple C we're serious about this,

0:51:11.880 --> 0:51:15.280
<v Speaker 1>they'd say, you know, they'd start a fund, right, which

0:51:15.320 --> 0:51:18.720
<v Speaker 1>is like you know, the Dummy Mander fund or something,

0:51:18.760 --> 0:51:21.520
<v Speaker 1>and like we're we're you know, looking for and they

0:51:21.560 --> 0:51:23.440
<v Speaker 1>are trying to recruit. But I almost would put a

0:51:23.480 --> 0:51:26.040
<v Speaker 1>knee on sign up and say, you know, do you

0:51:26.120 --> 0:51:29.120
<v Speaker 1>not like this? Are you an independent voter that's frustrated

0:51:29.160 --> 0:51:31.399
<v Speaker 1>by this? You know, we're looking for candidates to run

0:51:31.400 --> 0:51:33.040
<v Speaker 1>in these states and we'll support your bid whether you're

0:51:33.040 --> 0:51:37.759
<v Speaker 1>an independent Democrat whatever, and even run on the platform that, hey,

0:51:37.760 --> 0:51:39.440
<v Speaker 1>if we get control of Congress, we're going to want

0:51:39.440 --> 0:51:42.359
<v Speaker 1>to put limits on redissecting. And by the way, maybe

0:51:42.400 --> 0:51:44.319
<v Speaker 1>you make it this this goes. You know, you have

0:51:44.360 --> 0:51:49.200
<v Speaker 1>a more realistic political and voting reform bill that you

0:51:49.280 --> 0:51:51.200
<v Speaker 1>try to get bipartisans support for, and you get rid

0:51:51.239 --> 0:51:54.160
<v Speaker 1>of mail in voting for Trump, and you add voter

0:51:54.239 --> 0:51:56.160
<v Speaker 1>I D in and at the same time you put

0:51:56.239 --> 0:52:00.279
<v Speaker 1>a a restriction of any state you know, not being

0:52:00.280 --> 0:52:02.640
<v Speaker 1>able to you know, without a federal court order having

0:52:02.640 --> 0:52:06.400
<v Speaker 1>a redistrict or something like that. But they ought to

0:52:06.600 --> 0:52:10.680
<v Speaker 1>have a have a Texas fund to look for candidates,

0:52:11.040 --> 0:52:14.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, just like if I were the Republicans in California,

0:52:15.080 --> 0:52:17.640
<v Speaker 1>California fund right now they're spending the money to try

0:52:17.640 --> 0:52:18.120
<v Speaker 1>to stop it.

0:52:18.320 --> 0:52:19.759
<v Speaker 2>But if they don't, you.

0:52:19.680 --> 0:52:21.680
<v Speaker 1>Know, then they only have you know, the trick for

0:52:21.719 --> 0:52:24.399
<v Speaker 1>the Republicans, they only have like a week a couple

0:52:24.440 --> 0:52:27.680
<v Speaker 1>of weeks before filing deadline hits in California to do

0:52:27.719 --> 0:52:30.799
<v Speaker 1>that versus and in Texas the same thing to wait.

0:52:31.080 --> 0:52:34.840
<v Speaker 1>You know, they ought to start looking for it right now.

0:52:34.880 --> 0:52:39.280
<v Speaker 1>It might be a little late, but you know it's funny,

0:52:39.320 --> 0:52:41.640
<v Speaker 1>is the best candidates for Democrats to be recruiting are

0:52:41.640 --> 0:52:44.160
<v Speaker 1>people that have never run before, So in some ways

0:52:44.880 --> 0:52:46.640
<v Speaker 1>it's the new that they should be looking for.

0:52:46.719 --> 0:52:49.839
<v Speaker 2>I'd be looking for military veterans if I were them.

0:52:50.239 --> 0:52:52.040
<v Speaker 2>But is it possible?

0:52:52.239 --> 0:52:56.520
<v Speaker 1>Look, if you're willing to invest, it's always possible, you know.

0:52:56.640 --> 0:52:58.759
<v Speaker 1>Maybe that's the world Beto Rourke plays if he doesn't

0:52:58.840 --> 0:53:01.560
<v Speaker 1>run for any office himself, where he becomes sort of

0:53:01.600 --> 0:53:05.160
<v Speaker 1>the rain maker to try to raise money, raise awareness,

0:53:05.400 --> 0:53:15.239
<v Speaker 1>and recruit candidates. Next question comes from Angela from Moreo, Louisiana.

0:53:16.800 --> 0:53:20.080
<v Speaker 1>She says she's Angel Hope on substack. Good to know, Hey, Chuck,

0:53:20.080 --> 0:53:22.239
<v Speaker 1>I just stumbled on the idea that Texas redistricting could

0:53:22.239 --> 0:53:25.480
<v Speaker 1>backfire into a dummy mandering snaffo, potentially putting up to

0:53:25.520 --> 0:53:27.719
<v Speaker 1>ten districts in play. It's fascinating ripple effect and I'm

0:53:27.719 --> 0:53:30.040
<v Speaker 1>curious how this dynamic plays not just in Texas, but

0:53:30.080 --> 0:53:33.280
<v Speaker 1>also in California and other states considering mid decade redistricting

0:53:33.280 --> 0:53:35.640
<v Speaker 1>as a way to fight fire with fire. Could Democrats

0:53:35.680 --> 0:53:37.640
<v Speaker 1>be walking into the same trap? And does an endlist

0:53:37.719 --> 0:53:40.080
<v Speaker 1>hit for tet ultimately even the score? And how did

0:53:40.120 --> 0:53:42.920
<v Speaker 1>mid decade redistricting even become normalized? Wasn't it supposed to

0:53:42.960 --> 0:53:45.399
<v Speaker 1>be tied to the census. Thanks for keeping the analysis sharp.

0:53:45.480 --> 0:53:47.960
<v Speaker 1>I'd love to hear your take on this. Well, look,

0:53:48.040 --> 0:53:50.480
<v Speaker 1>I mean we got to this point because and it

0:53:50.520 --> 0:53:53.520
<v Speaker 1>was really Texas has pioneered this right. Texas did a

0:53:53.600 --> 0:53:57.280
<v Speaker 1>mid redistricting map tolm delay back in the day, about

0:53:57.280 --> 0:53:58.840
<v Speaker 1>twenty years ago did this. I think it was in

0:53:58.840 --> 0:54:01.319
<v Speaker 1>two thousand and three, the first time we had sort

0:54:01.360 --> 0:54:03.560
<v Speaker 1>of a mid map redistricting. It was a big fight.

0:54:03.960 --> 0:54:05.840
<v Speaker 1>I think that was something you know, back then, it

0:54:06.560 --> 0:54:09.719
<v Speaker 1>was the same thing and what you have, you know,

0:54:09.760 --> 0:54:12.319
<v Speaker 1>it's funny and in the twenty ten census and the

0:54:12.360 --> 0:54:15.480
<v Speaker 1>reapportionment after twenty ten is a perfect example. So the

0:54:15.520 --> 0:54:20.040
<v Speaker 1>Republicans controlled the twenty you know, twenty eleven reapportionment. Other

0:54:20.120 --> 0:54:24.840
<v Speaker 1>than that, you had the Obama Justice Department certainly, you know,

0:54:25.040 --> 0:54:27.160
<v Speaker 1>in charge of the voting rights. It was the first

0:54:27.160 --> 0:54:31.239
<v Speaker 1>time there was a democratic justice department overseeing reapportionment in

0:54:31.640 --> 0:54:37.239
<v Speaker 1>some thirty years, because in two thousand and one it

0:54:37.280 --> 0:54:39.520
<v Speaker 1>was the Bush Justice Department. In nineteen ninety one, it

0:54:39.560 --> 0:54:41.799
<v Speaker 1>was the other Bush Justice Department, nineteen eighty one, it

0:54:41.840 --> 0:54:44.120
<v Speaker 1>was the Reagan Justice Department. In nineteen seventy one, it

0:54:44.200 --> 0:54:46.480
<v Speaker 1>was the Nixon Justice Department. So it wasn't in you know,

0:54:46.480 --> 0:54:48.880
<v Speaker 1>it's nineteen fifty one, sixty one, and we didn't have

0:54:48.880 --> 0:54:51.319
<v Speaker 1>a Voting Rights Ack then, right, this is the first one.

0:54:51.600 --> 0:54:53.400
<v Speaker 1>So this was a first time a Democrat in the

0:54:53.440 --> 0:54:55.840
<v Speaker 1>era of the Voting Rights Act that was passing sixty

0:54:55.840 --> 0:54:58.719
<v Speaker 1>five was sort of overseeing reapportionment.

0:54:59.200 --> 0:54:59.880
<v Speaker 2>But for mo.

0:55:00.360 --> 0:55:02.600
<v Speaker 1>Inside the states, it was mostly Republicans that were in

0:55:02.680 --> 0:55:05.040
<v Speaker 1>charge of the map, and they had a big advantage

0:55:05.080 --> 0:55:07.560
<v Speaker 1>right the twenty twenty ten you know, and they were

0:55:07.600 --> 0:55:11.000
<v Speaker 1>able to protect that and got their house reelected in

0:55:11.040 --> 0:55:14.040
<v Speaker 1>twenty twelve, got some seats that they lost in twelve,

0:55:14.120 --> 0:55:14.360
<v Speaker 1>got a.

0:55:14.360 --> 0:55:15.120
<v Speaker 2>Back in fourteen.

0:55:15.600 --> 0:55:18.640
<v Speaker 1>But what happened in that sense in the you know,

0:55:18.680 --> 0:55:22.200
<v Speaker 1>by twenty eighteen, you know, the suburban districts became less

0:55:22.200 --> 0:55:27.799
<v Speaker 1>republican Trump sort of the light bush Republicans became less Republican.

0:55:27.920 --> 0:55:32.560
<v Speaker 1>And then you know, so that you know, every reapportionment eventually,

0:55:32.719 --> 0:55:34.759
<v Speaker 1>you know, you grow out of what you think the

0:55:37.280 --> 0:55:40.120
<v Speaker 1>the D versus are breakdown's going to be. It's always

0:55:40.120 --> 0:55:43.480
<v Speaker 1>interesting to me if you look at the if you

0:55:43.520 --> 0:55:45.799
<v Speaker 1>look at sort of the last house, you know, mid

0:55:45.920 --> 0:55:48.640
<v Speaker 1>term before if you ever look at the last mid

0:55:48.719 --> 0:55:51.720
<v Speaker 1>term before the next reapportionment, you know, and how different

0:55:51.760 --> 0:55:55.719
<v Speaker 1>it is from the first mid term after the reapportionment.

0:55:57.360 --> 0:55:59.919
<v Speaker 2>You can you can really see how far off it goes.

0:56:00.120 --> 0:56:03.359
<v Speaker 1>So I do think if you go down this road,

0:56:03.400 --> 0:56:06.360
<v Speaker 1>what it really has done is there's only going to

0:56:06.400 --> 0:56:11.279
<v Speaker 1>be say thirty seats that are with that where the

0:56:11.560 --> 0:56:14.080
<v Speaker 1>where the majority party has fifty five percent or less.

0:56:14.400 --> 0:56:16.960
<v Speaker 1>Back in my old hotline days, that the number the

0:56:17.200 --> 0:56:20.120
<v Speaker 1>agreed upon numbers. Any in any member of Congress that

0:56:20.200 --> 0:56:22.600
<v Speaker 1>got fifty five percent or less automatically got put on

0:56:22.640 --> 0:56:25.399
<v Speaker 1>my watch list back in the day, Right, that's always

0:56:25.440 --> 0:56:28.920
<v Speaker 1>the marker I've used fifty five percent. And then you know,

0:56:29.760 --> 0:56:31.839
<v Speaker 1>you know, and then you sort of anybody in the

0:56:31.960 --> 0:56:34.879
<v Speaker 1>fifty six fifty seven to fifty eight range, you know,

0:56:35.040 --> 0:56:38.120
<v Speaker 1>you look at it if it's you know, how consistent,

0:56:38.560 --> 0:56:41.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, how often is that district in that range? Right,

0:56:41.719 --> 0:56:43.719
<v Speaker 1>is it a district that is fifty four to fifty

0:56:43.760 --> 0:56:45.319
<v Speaker 1>eight or is it a district that is fifty eight

0:56:45.320 --> 0:56:45.920
<v Speaker 1>to sixty two?

0:56:46.120 --> 0:56:47.600
<v Speaker 2>Right for that for that party.

0:56:48.120 --> 0:56:51.359
<v Speaker 1>So so you generally look at it that way, we're

0:56:51.360 --> 0:56:53.239
<v Speaker 1>going to have fewer seats than ever, that are going

0:56:53.280 --> 0:56:57.000
<v Speaker 1>to be in the fifty five and less range, right,

0:56:57.040 --> 0:57:00.320
<v Speaker 1>that'll be five essentially where the where the largest spread

0:57:00.440 --> 0:57:04.000
<v Speaker 1>is single digits, not double digits between the most likely

0:57:04.719 --> 0:57:09.000
<v Speaker 1>two parties split. And under that scenario, it just narrows.

0:57:09.080 --> 0:57:11.839
<v Speaker 1>It just means, you know, in some ways, we'll have

0:57:11.880 --> 0:57:14.000
<v Speaker 1>more we'll have as many competitive Senate races as we

0:57:14.040 --> 0:57:16.840
<v Speaker 1>do house races. You know, I was just thinking about

0:57:16.880 --> 0:57:19.400
<v Speaker 1>this earlier today. With the state of Iowa. We're going

0:57:19.440 --> 0:57:21.920
<v Speaker 1>to have a competitive governor's race, a competitive senate race,

0:57:21.960 --> 0:57:24.200
<v Speaker 1>and we now have two. They have four house seats.

0:57:24.440 --> 0:57:27.360
<v Speaker 1>Two of them are open. Now one is not competitive

0:57:27.360 --> 0:57:29.240
<v Speaker 1>for both parties. That one open seat will be a

0:57:29.240 --> 0:57:32.480
<v Speaker 1>really competitive Republican primary. That's in the fourth. Then you'll

0:57:32.520 --> 0:57:35.560
<v Speaker 1>have the open seat of Ashley Henson seat and that'll

0:57:35.560 --> 0:57:38.320
<v Speaker 1>be very competitive because it's a pretty fifty to fifty district.

0:57:39.360 --> 0:57:42.920
<v Speaker 1>Maryann Miller Meeks has been She's Landside Meeks, right, she

0:57:43.000 --> 0:57:44.840
<v Speaker 1>never wins by more than a point or two. That

0:57:44.920 --> 0:57:48.880
<v Speaker 1>will be extraordinarily competitive, by the way iowas a commission state.

0:57:49.320 --> 0:57:51.200
<v Speaker 1>And then the third district, this is Des Moines. The

0:57:51.200 --> 0:57:54.000
<v Speaker 1>metro area is always a fifty to fifty district, Democrats

0:57:54.240 --> 0:57:57.160
<v Speaker 1>usually perform best in midterms, and Republicans in that district

0:57:57.240 --> 0:58:01.520
<v Speaker 1>usually performed best in presidentials. So if there are only

0:58:01.600 --> 0:58:08.360
<v Speaker 1>say fifteen swing districts up for grabs after all of

0:58:08.400 --> 0:58:11.200
<v Speaker 1>this tit for tat reapportionment, IOA may have twenty percent

0:58:11.200 --> 0:58:14.480
<v Speaker 1>of those competitive races, right, three of the five, three

0:58:14.480 --> 0:58:15.080
<v Speaker 1>of the fifteen.

0:58:16.000 --> 0:58:16.760
<v Speaker 2>But I digress.

0:58:16.840 --> 0:58:19.160
<v Speaker 1>The point is is that, look, I think this goes

0:58:19.200 --> 0:58:22.080
<v Speaker 1>back to an earlier answer I gave. I do think

0:58:22.120 --> 0:58:25.720
<v Speaker 1>we are somehow taking away the people from what was

0:58:25.760 --> 0:58:27.080
<v Speaker 1>supposed to be the people's House.

0:58:27.600 --> 0:58:28.760
<v Speaker 2>And the irony is that.

0:58:28.760 --> 0:58:33.720
<v Speaker 1>The Senate, which originally was a body that was whose

0:58:33.760 --> 0:58:37.240
<v Speaker 1>members were elected by state legislatures, well we're now actually

0:58:37.280 --> 0:58:39.680
<v Speaker 1>flipping it, right. We are now about to have four

0:58:39.800 --> 0:58:41.840
<v Speaker 1>hundred out of four hundred and thirty five House members

0:58:42.320 --> 0:58:46.920
<v Speaker 1>essentially be elected by state legislators. What do you think

0:58:46.920 --> 0:58:49.200
<v Speaker 1>the founders would have said to that? What do we

0:58:49.200 --> 0:58:52.000
<v Speaker 1>think James Madison and Thomas Jefferson and Alexander Hamilton would

0:58:52.000 --> 0:58:52.440
<v Speaker 1>have said to that?

0:58:52.560 --> 0:58:54.680
<v Speaker 2>It didn't make any sense? Right?

0:58:55.080 --> 0:58:58.440
<v Speaker 1>So that to me is the absurdity of where this

0:58:58.600 --> 0:59:01.800
<v Speaker 1>is gone, which is we've literally now taken the right.

0:59:02.000 --> 0:59:04.680
<v Speaker 1>The dumbest idea we had was having state legislatures elect

0:59:04.760 --> 0:59:06.320
<v Speaker 1>Washington representatives in the first place.

0:59:06.360 --> 0:59:07.320
<v Speaker 2>I know some there are.

0:59:07.440 --> 0:59:10.280
<v Speaker 1>I've got some good friends who are in the who

0:59:10.320 --> 0:59:16.760
<v Speaker 1>are super old school conservative, who would argue for going

0:59:16.840 --> 0:59:21.000
<v Speaker 1>back to that way of the Senate. Usually these are

0:59:21.120 --> 0:59:22.680
<v Speaker 1>friends of mine on the right side of the aisle,

0:59:24.240 --> 0:59:27.200
<v Speaker 1>they have more state legislatures. I understand why they would

0:59:27.240 --> 0:59:31.160
<v Speaker 1>prefer that, but I don't think it's very representative, and

0:59:31.200 --> 0:59:34.160
<v Speaker 1>it's certainly not small d democratic. So that's to me,

0:59:34.320 --> 0:59:35.960
<v Speaker 1>what's why it's so bad?

0:59:36.400 --> 0:59:38.240
<v Speaker 2>All Right? That was six questions.

0:59:38.440 --> 0:59:45.120
<v Speaker 1>I hit the half hour mark, and this next question

0:59:46.120 --> 0:59:48.160
<v Speaker 1>it deserves a longer answer, and I don't.

0:59:47.960 --> 0:59:48.920
<v Speaker 2>Want to short shrift it.

0:59:49.040 --> 0:59:53.400
<v Speaker 1>So with that, Danny from Dublin, I promise you I'm

0:59:53.400 --> 0:59:55.400
<v Speaker 1>going to answer your question on the next episode with

0:59:55.520 --> 0:59:59.439
<v Speaker 1>the Chuck Podcast, and with that until we upload again

1:00:00.200 --> 1:00:00.800
<v Speaker 1>during the weekend.