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Speaker 1: Hello, they're happy Thursday. I know I've hit you three

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Speaker 1: straight days, but as I told you, it's a you know,

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Speaker 1: it's the.

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Speaker 2: Second new year.

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Speaker 1: It's the sort of the second new year, as I

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Speaker 1: like to call it, where we're sort of getting things started.

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Speaker 1: Washington is sort of gearing back up for business. Congress

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Speaker 1: had a really tough week this week. I think they

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Speaker 1: had had to work for two and a half whole

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Speaker 1: days here in Washington before getting getting.

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Speaker 2: To fly out.

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Speaker 1: How is your two and a half day work week?

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Speaker 1: If I could go that to you? They But in

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Speaker 1: all seriousness, I think Congress will certainly have to take

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Speaker 1: a more starring role, won't be there's no There's only

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Speaker 1: room for one star in Washington right now, and that's

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Speaker 1: the occupant of the Oval Office. But Congress has a

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Speaker 1: lot of ways to insert itself into the story, from

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Speaker 1: the Epstein files, from we've got government funding coming up.

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Speaker 1: That was obviously the focus of my lead yesterday with

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Speaker 1: excuse me on Wednesday, I say yesterday, I don't want

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Speaker 1: to assume when you guys are I know you're listening

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Speaker 1: the second in uploads right, of course, But for those

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Speaker 1: of you that are listening a little late, nothing wrong

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Speaker 1: with that. But in the previous podcast I talked about

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Speaker 1: sort of when you start.

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Speaker 2: To look at the political.

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Speaker 1: Situation of the Democrats nationally, being uncooperative on the budget

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Speaker 1: might be better politics for them. I e. Now, we've never

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Speaker 1: seen a situation like that. But I want to start

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Speaker 1: with sort of what's going on here, this anti vaccine

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Speaker 1: zeal that's taking place, and with the announcement the Florida

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Speaker 1: this is the state I grew up in. In fact,

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Speaker 1: I remember they just announced that they're not going to

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Speaker 1: have they're going to drop the vaccine mandate for kids

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Speaker 1: in schools. You talk too many health experts and they

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Speaker 1: will tell you the vaccine mandates for public schools and frankly,

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Speaker 1: for most schools. It's not just public schools. Most private

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Speaker 1: schools also have a manday essentially follows state law, whatever

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Speaker 1: the state law is. And so the Florida Surgeon General,

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Speaker 1: who's somebody that many in the scientific community would say

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Speaker 1: isn't really a believer in mainstream science and mainstream theories

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Speaker 1: of healthcare. You know, he's been the one that you know,

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Speaker 1: has been telling people not to take mRNA vaccines and

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Speaker 1: has pushed against the COVID stuff. And it's pretty much

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Speaker 1: an anti vaxxer. And what's interesting is that Ronda Santis

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Speaker 1: is not somebody who came across as an anti vaxxer

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Speaker 1: when he ran for governor in twenty eighteen, and even

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two didn't. And in fact, when the

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Speaker 1: vaccine was rolling out, his office was very aggressive at

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Speaker 1: making sure everybody sixty five plus could get it and

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Speaker 1: all of those things. So to see the turn here, right,

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Speaker 1: you know, you know, politically, what's been successful for him

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Speaker 1: was keeping Florida open. But the idea that you'd be

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Speaker 1: anti vaccine to keep Florida open has sort of been

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Speaker 1: an odd mix here in an odd marriage. But in

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Speaker 1: some ways that that's what's been going on. Right, And

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Speaker 1: you sit there and I'll tell you when I saw this,

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Speaker 1: I actually remember I was one of those kids. I

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Speaker 1: remember I was not allowed to start school. I think

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Speaker 1: it was before third grade. I can't remember second grade

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Speaker 1: or third grade or fourth grade, but it was it

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Speaker 1: was in elementary school. And my doctor, you know who,

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Speaker 1: to vouch for my vaccine schedule only put the month

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Speaker 1: in the year, and the bureaucrats that Dade County said

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Speaker 1: that wasn't good enough, and because the day of the

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Speaker 1: week wasn't put in there what day it was, I was,

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Speaker 1: I was, you know, not allowed to not allowed to

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Speaker 1: come to school. And it turned into this standoff between

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Speaker 1: my parents and them a little bit nothing. But at

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Speaker 1: some point my doctor just said, all right, we'll just

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Speaker 1: say it happened on this day and we just put

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Speaker 1: a date and then it was done right. It didn't matter,

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Speaker 1: didn't have to verify it for sure, but the fact

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Speaker 1: that the form didn't have that was what this became.

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Speaker 1: And you know, my let's just say, my father thought

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Speaker 1: it was a bit absurd, and I remember he said,

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Speaker 1: I want you to take this note to your teacher

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Speaker 1: to apologize that you weren't there. And I think in

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Speaker 1: the note I remember reading it, it was like the

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Speaker 1: bureaucracy of Dade County Public Schools, you know, forced this,

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Speaker 1: and we're sorry that he couldn't be there, and this

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Speaker 1: is not how we are as parents. We were very

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Speaker 1: respectful to teachers. Blah blah blah. It was interesting how

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Speaker 1: he did it on that front. My father was a character.

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Speaker 1: I miss him. I miss him dearly and often wonder

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Speaker 1: I lost him. In nineteen eighty eight, I often wonder,

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Speaker 1: because I got my love of politics from him, I

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Speaker 1: often wonder what.

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Speaker 2: He would think of today's politics.

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Speaker 1: I have the luxury to believe one thing, and I'll

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Speaker 1: just leave it at that on that front. But what

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Speaker 1: it gets me too is trying to figure out. I'm

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Speaker 1: trying to figure out how the hell did Florida lose

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Speaker 1: its mind? And I don't think it's the residence of Florida, Like,

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Speaker 1: how did we get how did this kooky anti vax

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Speaker 1: stuff go mainstream? And I've been looking for an historical parallel,

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Speaker 1: like when have we lost our minds before as a

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Speaker 1: society and got like weird fervor this an anti something further,

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Speaker 1: and I think we're experiencing something that's very similar to prohibition.

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Speaker 1: And what's interesting if you think about the timing of

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Speaker 1: the of the prohibition movement and the war on alcohol

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Speaker 1: and the anti vax movement, and when did sort of

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Speaker 1: the war on alcohol see its greatest success and when

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Speaker 1: has the anti vax movement seen its greatest success? Well,

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Speaker 1: you had the pandemic in nineteen seventeen and eighteen, and

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Speaker 1: World War One had a huge cultural impact on society,

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Speaker 1: and there was an anti alcohol movement before the world

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Speaker 1: World War One and before that pandemic of nineteen seventy

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Speaker 1: in eighteen, and it's certainly raised anxieties. The pandemic and

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Speaker 1: World War One back then raised anxieties about morality and

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Speaker 1: public health and the anti alcohol movement which had existed.

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Speaker 1: If you're a watcher of the Gilded Age, Cynthia Nixon's

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Speaker 1: character hosts meetings of the Temperance movement. This was the

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Speaker 1: beginnings of the anti So this was like a twenty

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Speaker 1: year movement, just like the anti vaxx movement, right, has

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Speaker 1: been around a long time. It took a long time

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Speaker 1: for them to get traction. Covid allowed them, gave them

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Speaker 1: their moment, and the vaccine mandates, right, that was the opening, Right,

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Speaker 1: it was the mandate that became the opening for the

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Speaker 1: entire thing. And it wasn't just about a COVID vaccine.

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Speaker 1: Right now we're getting rid of mandates on mumps and

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Speaker 1: measles and hepatitis B and all these things, which is

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Speaker 1: really quite concerning. Well, in some ways, the pandemic of

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Speaker 1: nineteen eighteen and World War One and the anti German

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Speaker 1: mindset that the country had, which also meant anti beer, right,

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Speaker 1: The biggest brewers at that time in America were Germans,

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Speaker 1: so it became so they took advantage of a moment. Okay, Now,

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Speaker 1: the anti alcohol movement was framed sort of as a

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Speaker 1: moral crusade. It was a moral failing, was the argument, right, sin, corruption,

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Speaker 1: family destruction. The German American brewers were the villains here, right,

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Speaker 1: We just fought them, you know, the Europeans had to

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Speaker 1: fight them War one. They're bad people and they're the

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Speaker 1: ones pushing alcohol on us.

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Speaker 2: And then the.

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Speaker 1: Dry reformers at the time said that abstinence, you know,

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Speaker 1: in some ways was a civic duty. Well, think about

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Speaker 1: the anti VAXX movement, right, it's been framed as sort

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Speaker 1: of a personal rights issue. Farmer companies, public health officials,

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Speaker 1: and globalists are the villains here, and the choice being

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Speaker 1: able to have a choice. It's being framed it's patrio.

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Speaker 1: It's your patriotic duty to resist this coersion, right, that's

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Speaker 1: not what a free society allowed to you. So that

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Speaker 1: was it helped them get a hold. So then you

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Speaker 1: have sort of you know, how did they you know,

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Speaker 1: move forward?

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Speaker 2: Right?

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Speaker 1: The eighteenth Amendment, the Volstead Act banned even mild beer

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Speaker 1: and wine, sweeping, federal intervention in a daily life when

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Speaker 1: it came to alcohol. All of this, right, all of

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Speaker 1: this happening right after right right nineteen nineteen, nineteen twenty,

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Speaker 1: nineteen twenty one. Well, the vaccine mandates for workplaces, schools,

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Speaker 1: military court battles over OSHA, and federal contractors. Do they

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Speaker 1: have to abide by the mandate sweeping requirements?

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Speaker 2: What did it do?

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Speaker 1: It hardened opposition that actually might have faded it had

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Speaker 1: been left to being voluntary. If there is a mistake

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Speaker 1: here that the scientific community made and that the government

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Speaker 1: officials made, was the mandate aspect of this, right, you know,

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Speaker 1: you tell somebody they have to do it, and then

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Speaker 1: they go, well, why are you making me do it?

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Speaker 1: You tell somebody that it's voluntary. But here's why we

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Speaker 1: think you should do it. You're going to get eighty twenty.

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Speaker 1: You'll probably get eighty twenty in either case. The question

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Speaker 1: is is, you know, does the eighty become an advocate

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Speaker 1: or do they become do they become a quick questioning?

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Speaker 1: Now think about you know, and look what happened here.

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Speaker 1: The concern about alcohol was frankly like, was the hard stuff.

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Speaker 1: But then when they banned baar and wine. It started

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Speaker 1: to get get at people and what we're doing here,

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Speaker 1: anti vaxx, anti COVID vaccine, that was one thing. Now

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Speaker 1: this is turning into anti all vaccines. So what happened

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Speaker 1: with alcohol? Well, so what happens We ban alcohol and

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Speaker 1: then basically we create crime gangs, Right, we create an

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Speaker 1: entire criminal industrial complex.

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Speaker 2: That actually exists to this day.

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Speaker 1: Number one, right, black market, Lickner, and then the irony

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Speaker 1: was poisonings and debt. Here, the anti alcohol movement was

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Speaker 1: supposed to be about making you healthier. It was supposed

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Speaker 1: to make society better. So what did it do? It

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Speaker 1: increased crime and more people died from bad alcohol, essentially

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Speaker 1: bootlegged alcohol, you know, the homemade stuff that people unregulated

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Speaker 1: and it was killing people. Well, the anti vaxx movement, right,

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Speaker 1: all of a sudden, now it is spread beyond covid.

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Speaker 1: No more vaccines from measles, polio, HPV, these diseases were contained,

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Speaker 1: and now we've already seen a measle's outbreak. Lord only

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Speaker 1: knows what's going to come in Florida without this vaccine mandate.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's sadly, it's not going to be an

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Speaker 1: if something breaks out, it's a win, so not another parallel.

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Speaker 1: Then there was the political fallout right, Prohibition became a symbol.

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Speaker 1: It turned into a symbol of government overreach and eroded trust,

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Speaker 1: fueled cynicism about reform, and eventually it does get repealed,

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Speaker 1: but not until there's one of the most catas you know,

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Speaker 1: the nineteen twenties were incredibly disruptive in American society in

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Speaker 1: all sorts of pipe leads to the Great Depression. It

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Speaker 1: also leads to the party behind all of this, right

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Speaker 1: ends up getting just eviscerated in nineteen thirty two. Immediately

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Speaker 1: prohibition is repealed. Why at the time the economy was terrible.

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Speaker 1: It was pitched as a way to potentially create jobs.

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Speaker 1: If you legalize alcohol and get it back on the

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Speaker 1: streets the making of it, you know, you might create jobs.

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Speaker 1: And it was also was going to make the working

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Speaker 1: class a little bit happier as you were trying to

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Speaker 1: keep society from falling out. Well, the anti VAXX movement right,

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Speaker 1: it's reshaping politics of the right. It's embedding now distrust

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Speaker 1: into public health. It's going to be long term party

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Speaker 1: identity now for real, anti government, anti institution, but it's

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Speaker 1: going to erode compliance for a while. And the question

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Speaker 1: is going to be when you could sort of see

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Speaker 1: it here, right, it is at some point the public's

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Speaker 1: going to figure out this made us less healthy, this

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Speaker 1: put us more at risk. And in fact, I think

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Speaker 1: the state of Florida is you know, wrongful death lawsuits

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Speaker 1: are gonna skyrocket if people die from getting a disease

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Speaker 1: that could have been stopped with a vaccine. And I

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Speaker 1: think it's the government itself, right, that is going to

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Speaker 1: They're supposed to be shields for this, right, government is

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Speaker 1: supposed to be shielded a bit from this that ultimately.

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Speaker 2: It's the people.

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Speaker 1: But this is an intentional act too. How are they

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Speaker 1: trying to do harm? You know, you could argue that

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Speaker 1: the motivation is not to do harm, but they are knowing,

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Speaker 1: you know, all the evidence is they know the potential

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Speaker 1: harm that can be done from this decision, and they

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Speaker 1: did it anyway. So look, it's not a perfect analogy

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Speaker 1: sort of the prohibition movement, but it is a reminder

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Speaker 1: we lost our minds as a society and somehow this

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Speaker 1: took hold and nobody really wanted it, but nobody knew

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Speaker 1: how to stop it, and it took sort of It

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Speaker 1: took people dying. It took the rise of criminal gangs

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Speaker 1: and the mob and all of these stuff to get

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Speaker 1: people to realize, yeah, this is this wasn't the right way.

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Speaker 2: To do it.

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Speaker 1: So the question is is it when when you know,

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Speaker 1: I don't think anybody thinks not getting vaccines is a

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Speaker 1: good idea. When I say anybody, obviously there's some people

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Speaker 1: they're in power. But I think this is a seventy

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Speaker 1: thirty issue. I don't think this is a fifty to

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Speaker 1: fifty issue.

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Speaker 2: I guess we have to go.

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Speaker 1: Polling on it more directly than ever before. I now

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Speaker 1: it'll be interesting. Is we need some better polling data.

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Speaker 1: And I think we're you know, I know what I'd

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Speaker 1: be doing if I were running the NBC News poll

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Speaker 1: right now, creating a battery of tests on this. I

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Speaker 1: think on public health, I think we we're all making

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Speaker 1: assumptions that we know how. I assume it'll be pretty generational.

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Speaker 1: I think the older you are and the memories you

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Speaker 1: have of quarantines, of having people you knew in your

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Speaker 1: life die of the measles and mumps, which was not

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Speaker 1: a rare thing in the forties, thirties, forties and fifties,

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Speaker 1: that the memory of those things is you know, means that,

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Speaker 1: my guess is the older you are, the more pro

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Speaker 1: vaccine you are, and perhaps the further away you are

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Speaker 1: from this, the more quote open you are to personal

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Speaker 1: freedom on this front. But look, I'm throwing it out there.

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Speaker 1: I'm not saying this is a definitive comparison. I'd love

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Speaker 1: your feedback on this. What do you think is the

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Speaker 1: is this anti vaxx movement that's starting to take hold.

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Speaker 1: I think there are a lot of parallels here to prohibition, right,

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Speaker 1: which in some ways right, it took almost one hundred

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Speaker 1: years to get rid of dry counties. There's still a

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Speaker 1: handful of dry counties. I've watched my in my state

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Speaker 1: of Florida. Over time, the dry counties in the last

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Speaker 1: twenty years have finally gone away. So it took nearly

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Speaker 1: one hundred years for this for the entire sort of

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Speaker 1: war on alcohol to be fully repealed or to be

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Speaker 1: you know, fully surrender. So this may and this is

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Speaker 1: a reminder we may have set ourselves back on the

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Speaker 1: on the vaccination front and on public health for one

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Speaker 1: hundred years, that it may take that long for smaller

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Speaker 1: communities to realize this was a mistake. Now again, I

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Speaker 1: think there are lessons learned here from those that want

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Speaker 1: more vaccine compliance, and that is mandates don't work, right,

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Speaker 1: it's the mandates. You know, you can implement certain mandates

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Speaker 1: right school children, yes, kids, And by the way, this

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Speaker 1: is the real vulnerability here, I think politically in the

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Speaker 1: short term, I have no idea whether the Democrats are

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Speaker 1: capable of a message like this.

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Speaker 2: But if I were.

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Speaker 1: Advising a bil cassidy right now, I'd say, look, you're

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Speaker 1: looking for a way to sort of get out of

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Speaker 1: this box that you've put yourself in. Well, you know,

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Speaker 1: do you want to be on the side of of

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Speaker 1: more children and more healthy children or you want to

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Speaker 1: be on the side of less healthy children? Right, because

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Speaker 1: right now the Republican Party is accumulating a record that

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Speaker 1: is putting kids, is making kids less healthy, is making

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Speaker 1: their outcomes less healthy. Whether it's on you know, not

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Speaker 1: mandating vaccines. To look at the state of Texas and

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Speaker 1: it's inability to have a warning system with the floods

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Speaker 1: that put those kids at risk. Obviously, it's with what's

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Speaker 1: happening at schools and the inability to protect kids from

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Speaker 1: guns there that you know, there's a record here piling

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Speaker 1: up the medicaid cuts. Who gets hurt the most? It's

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Speaker 1: kids the deportations, who gets hurt the most? The kids

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Speaker 1: that are born here, right, there's this. The most vulnerable

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Speaker 1: to all of these radical policy changes that we've been

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Speaker 1: experiencing over the last six months are those under the

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Speaker 1: age of eighteen in various ways. I again, I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I've not seen a messaging component out of the Democratic

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Speaker 1: side that knows how to do this and and sort

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Speaker 1: of simplify.

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Speaker 2: The closest I've seen.

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Speaker 1: Is Ram Emmanuel, who sort of tried to look at

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Speaker 1: this kitchen you know, sort of start at the kitchen

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Speaker 1: table and work your way back, rather than to start

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Speaker 1: with a political argument.

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Speaker 2: And work your way towards the kitchen table.

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Speaker 1: And I think on this vaccine stuff, you've got to

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Speaker 1: step away from the political side as much as that's

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Speaker 1: where you know, this is a Kennedy problem and it's

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Speaker 1: all of this. But in some ways, the more you

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Speaker 1: focus it there it probably is the less people hear it,

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Speaker 1: and the more you go as to, hey, are people

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Speaker 1: looking out for your kids anymore? Because nobody's seen they're

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Speaker 1: not doing that in Washington, and here's how I think

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Speaker 1: that's where the vulnerability lies politically. But we shall see so.

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Speaker 1: But i'd love your feedback the next couple of rounds

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Speaker 1: of asked Chucks. I will if you just send comments.

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Speaker 1: You know, you know your take, what you know. If

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Speaker 1: you've got a way to strengthen my comparison, I'd love

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Speaker 1: to hear it. If there's more holes in it, I'd

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Speaker 1: love to hear that too, So bring it on and

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Speaker 1: h later in an ass Chuck, we will respond to that.

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Speaker 1: Just a few other intriguing notes and political developments over

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Speaker 1: the last twenty four hours that I thought were worth mentioning.

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Speaker 1: One is that it looks like the Trump administration is

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Speaker 1: aggressively trying to figure out ways to help Andrew Cuomo

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Speaker 1: get a one on one with on Mam Donnie and

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Speaker 1: the mayor's race. New York Times broke the story, saying

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Speaker 1: that they're looking for they're seeing if there's we've seen

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Speaker 1: already this right. The independent candidate dropped out on Wednesday. Walden,

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Speaker 1: the Trump administration's looking for possible job opportunities for Carlos Sliwa.

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Speaker 1: They Republican nominee the Guardian Angel Guy and for Eric Adams,

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Speaker 1: and if they get out, then you get a one

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Speaker 1: on one between Cuomo and Mamdanni.

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Speaker 2: The question is is that enough for Cuomo? Right?

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Speaker 1: He couldn't win on one basically couldn't end up winning

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Speaker 1: a one on one because mom Donnie turned it into

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Speaker 1: a one on one in some ways, right, knowing how

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Speaker 1: ranked choice voting worked, by the way it just in aside,

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Speaker 1: Come on, New York City, why is that ranked choice

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Speaker 1: voting is only good for the Democratic primary but not

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Speaker 1: good for the electorate.

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Speaker 2: As a whole.

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Speaker 1: I actually think that's an unfair way to do it.

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Speaker 1: If you're not going to have ranked choice voting for

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Speaker 1: the general, then it shouldn't be allowed for the primary

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Speaker 1: and vice versa. Right, it should you know, either have

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Speaker 1: one way that you're doing the office or not. This

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Speaker 1: idea that it was ranked choice voting for the primary,

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Speaker 1: but it wasn't. You know, if it had been, then

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Speaker 1: you could have had this dynamic five way race that

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Speaker 1: might have made it different, and all sorts of interesting

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Speaker 1: calculations and different duopolies or partnerships or whatever you want

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Speaker 1: to call them could have been formed. But anyway, so

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Speaker 1: I should. You know, I kind of think the you're

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Speaker 1: either doing it one way.

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Speaker 2: Or you're doing it the other way.

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Speaker 1: This idea that it's one way in the primary and

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Speaker 1: one way in the general, I think is not fair,

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Speaker 1: not fair to the voters whichever it's. It's not fair

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Speaker 1: to primary voters that they had to do the rank

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Speaker 1: choice voting but they don't get to do it there

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Speaker 1: and vice versa. Personally, I'd love to have seen it

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Speaker 1: all toy thing. But the point I want to make here,

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Speaker 1: so if that happens and it looks like there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of you know, this is one of those things

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Speaker 1: that you know, when it's in the leaking out stage,

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Speaker 1: you know, there's a couple of reasons something gets leaked

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Speaker 1: like this. One is to kill it, or one is

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Speaker 1: to sort of use it as a trial balloon. So

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Speaker 1: you know, I don't know the Times reporting, but that's

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Speaker 1: one of two reasons why something like this leaks. It's

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Speaker 1: a trial balloon to see how see how it works,

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Speaker 1: or it's a it's somebody trying to kill it and

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Speaker 1: putting the idea out there could do that. But let's

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Speaker 1: say it happens. And the reason I say it's because

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Speaker 1: it's going to set up an inch interesting off year

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Speaker 1: messaging test, because then you're going to have a New

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Speaker 1: York City mayor's race that is going to be all

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Speaker 1: about Donald Trump, Right, Mam Donnie is going to try

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Speaker 1: to tie Cuomo to Trump and say this is Trump's candidate.

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Speaker 1: He orchestrated everything to do there, right, So I think

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Speaker 1: this is the This is to me the risk here

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Speaker 1: Cuomo's making like he's getting what he needs here, which

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Speaker 1: is cleared the field, and the only way the field

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Speaker 1: could get cleared was with Trump's help. So it's a

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Speaker 1: it's a it's an interesting it's an interesting situation that

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Speaker 1: he's in. Well, on the other side of the country,

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Speaker 1: you're going to have a campaign that's going to be

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Speaker 1: a referendum campaign for the gerrymandering right, for the new map.

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Speaker 2: Right. Gaven Newsom's gonna be.

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Speaker 1: Out there basically to beg the voters to, hey, we

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Speaker 1: want to temporarily do this, but we have to get

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Speaker 1: your permission to do it because of the Constitutional Amendment

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Speaker 1: on civilian redistricting And what do you think the primary

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Speaker 1: foil is going to be for the map, right, It's

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Speaker 1: going to be Donald Trump. So you're going to have

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Speaker 1: gap and run an anti Trump campaign in order to

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Speaker 1: sell his maps, because look, this is a you know,

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Speaker 1: if the campaign for those maps and we just uh

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Speaker 1: is about fairness, right, that amendment could go down and

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Speaker 1: Newsom could lose if he can flood the zone, and

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Speaker 1: it gets turned into hey, Donald Trump, you know this

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Speaker 1: is this is this is about checking Donald Trump. Then

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Speaker 1: you get those anti Trump independents more likely to say, Okay,

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Speaker 1: I'll vote for this temporarily even if I don't like

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Speaker 1: it because because of Trump. So then we're going to

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Speaker 1: have basically two Trump referendums in different ways, and two

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Speaker 1: of the bluest areas in the country, New York City

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Speaker 1: and California. Now you'd say, well, that means mom, Donnie's

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Speaker 1: going to be mayor and Newsom's going to get his remap. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's probably likely. But what if they don't both go

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Speaker 1: that way. What if the law and Oregon Order are

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Speaker 1: wins the day in New York and the fear of

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Speaker 1: socialism becomes a real thing and you do split and

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Speaker 1: wedge the Democratic vote there and in California. Right if

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Speaker 1: the counter to make it a referendum on Trump gets

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Speaker 1: turned into making a referendum on Newsome. Well, you know,

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Speaker 1: his job approval rating has been very polarizing in California,

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Speaker 1: and it's not been that healthy.

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Speaker 2: He's not a.

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Speaker 1: Governor that sits in the sixties. In fact, during campaign

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty four, he was in the mid forties. You know,

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Speaker 1: I had a couple of sources telling me that Kevin

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Speaker 1: was was basically looking for congressional races to help, and

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Speaker 1: they were like, please don't come, We don't you know.

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Speaker 2: And it was not personal.

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Speaker 1: It was business, meaning they didn't want to introduce, you know,

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Speaker 1: somebody who's right now was polarizing the electorate. So it

433
00:23:59,840 --> 00:24:03,520
Speaker 1: just look, the stakes every election now, the stakes are

434
00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:07,760
Speaker 1: higher than ever before, right each one of them. I

435
00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:11,520
Speaker 1: don't know where this is, just this is a fascinating

436
00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:16,440
Speaker 1: development that by mid October, somehow the off off year

437
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:19,440
Speaker 1: elections may end up being a full fledged referendum on Trump.

438
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:20,040
Speaker 2: We're already seeing.

439
00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 1: It's interesting even in the Jersey governor's race, in the

440
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:26,720
Speaker 1: Virginia governor's race, right you look, the Republican candidate in

441
00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:30,520
Speaker 1: Virginia governor, she's been running with Glenn Youngkin, and Glenn Youngkin.

442
00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:31,720
Speaker 2: Is the spokesperson for the campaign.

443
00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:35,160
Speaker 1: You see Glenn Youngkin in the TV ads, You don't

444
00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:36,200
Speaker 1: hear any mention of Trump.

445
00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:37,000
Speaker 2: Right.

446
00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:39,000
Speaker 1: All you have to do is read a poll in

447
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:42,720
Speaker 1: Virginia and understand why. Meanwhile, what is Abigail Spaanberger doing.

448
00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:48,639
Speaker 1: She is trying to tie Winston merleseares to Trump, particularly

449
00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:50,879
Speaker 1: with the with the doze cuts and the federal government

450
00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:53,720
Speaker 1: workers and all of that, and it's going there. So

451
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:56,520
Speaker 1: you certainly have a Democrat in Virginia that wants Trump.

452
00:24:56,760 --> 00:24:59,720
Speaker 1: Then you have sort of a cookie cutter campaign anti

453
00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:02,840
Speaker 1: Trump campaign that's being run now by mikey Ryl, the

454
00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:06,400
Speaker 1: Democratic nominee for New Jersey governor, where Chidarelli, who used

455
00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:08,840
Speaker 1: the Trump endorsement to sort of make sure everybody knew

456
00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:11,639
Speaker 1: he was the Republican to vote for. Suddenly he says, hey,

457
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:14,200
Speaker 1: this is not a race about Trump. She's the one

458
00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:18,200
Speaker 1: that's obsessed with Trump, you know, and with Washington. I'm

459
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:20,439
Speaker 1: here obsessed about New Jersey, right, which is an interesting

460
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:24,920
Speaker 1: counter message. The point is is now we've got four

461
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 1: different races where some form of Trump is being used

462
00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:32,919
Speaker 1: as a referendum, and I think we're all curious, what

463
00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:35,320
Speaker 1: is the appetite for that in the electorate. Does that

464
00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:38,560
Speaker 1: motivate independence one way or the other. Is there an

465
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:42,960
Speaker 1: exhaustion from it? Or are his actions turning voters off?

466
00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:44,359
Speaker 2: Does it end.

467
00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:46,720
Speaker 1: Up the more you talk about Trump, do you activate

468
00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:49,840
Speaker 1: the Trump only voters that seem to just show up

469
00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:52,080
Speaker 1: in presidentials but decide they have to get his back?

470
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:52,320
Speaker 2: Right?

471
00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:55,800
Speaker 1: Point is a lot of what ifs here. This entire

472
00:25:55,880 --> 00:26:00,600
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five campaign, which felt semi local, eye right

473
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:03,480
Speaker 1: in various ways. You know, you knew that Trump would

474
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:07,040
Speaker 1: be used, you know, to push certain constituency group buttons.

475
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:09,800
Speaker 1: But we're starting to see it may take more center

476
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 1: stage because Trump himself's right. Look at how much he's

477
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:15,560
Speaker 1: intervening in New York City mayor and I'll be fascinated

478
00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:20,879
Speaker 1: to see whether, you know, how how he tries to

479
00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:23,520
Speaker 1: get involved in California, because I think he will, and

480
00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:25,639
Speaker 1: how he tries to get involved in New Jersey. I

481
00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 1: do think he stays out of Virginia. I think in

482
00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:30,760
Speaker 1: some ways the Youngkin experience in love It and the

483
00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 1: fact that Winson Earl Sears has made the decision I'm

484
00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:38,000
Speaker 1: running I'm going to try to run Youngkin's reelection it's

485
00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:39,040
Speaker 1: her only path.

486
00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:42,320
Speaker 2: It's probably a long shot.

487
00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 1: But looking at the numbers, I see why I think

488
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:49,160
Speaker 1: I'd be doing the same thing. The problem she's got

489
00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:52,200
Speaker 1: is Youngkin's approval numbers. While better than Trump's in Virginia,

490
00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:56,639
Speaker 1: they're not awesome, right, And that's h and that's ultimately

491
00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:16,879
Speaker 1: I think the probably the hurdle with that strategy.

492
00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:22,240
Speaker 2: All right, and now let's load up. Let's do some questions,

493
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:29,400
Speaker 2: ask Chuck. But I think I actually have.

494
00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:33,000
Speaker 1: Given that this is the last episode for the week.

495
00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:35,040
Speaker 1: I'm going to try to let this go a little

496
00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:37,159
Speaker 1: bit here and get through. Let me see if I

497
00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:41,639
Speaker 1: can get through. My goal is seven questions. See if

498
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:44,960
Speaker 1: I can do seven, maybe eight and thirty minutes. All right,

499
00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:48,359
Speaker 1: let's give it a shot. This one comes from David

500
00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:53,080
Speaker 1: from Oviado, Florida. I think it's Oviato, but if I'm wrong,

501
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:53,919
Speaker 1: he will let me know.

502
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:55,359
Speaker 2: All right.

503
00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:56,960
Speaker 1: So I'm a long time listener, going back to your

504
00:27:57,119 --> 00:27:59,480
Speaker 1: MTP days. I'm also a Florida boy, though a bit

505
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:01,560
Speaker 1: north from you Someminal County. I think I remember you

506
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:04,920
Speaker 1: once saying you have some relatives in Longwood. Yes, I've

507
00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:06,920
Speaker 1: listened to your complaints about Dems in regard to be

508
00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:09,439
Speaker 1: distingu which made it amusing when you also said we

509
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:10,720
Speaker 1: have to deal with the world as it is, not

510
00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:13,359
Speaker 1: as we'd like it to be. Touche, Isn't that exactly

511
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:15,440
Speaker 1: what DEM's pushing aggressive maps are doing. Not to get

512
00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:17,520
Speaker 1: too nerdy, but think of it like the old Star

513
00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:20,600
Speaker 1: Trek episode of Private Little War. The Klingons arm one side,

514
00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:23,040
Speaker 1: so the Federation arms the other to keep balance. It's messy,

515
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:25,080
Speaker 1: but if Dems don't play by the same rules, they

516
00:28:25,119 --> 00:28:27,080
Speaker 1: may never control the House again in our lifetimes. What

517
00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:32,040
Speaker 1: say you, no, David, this is this is a fair question.

518
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:35,560
Speaker 1: You're not alone in this pushback. One of my closest friends,

519
00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:41,719
Speaker 1: you know, somebody that I'll be arguing with, mostly about

520
00:28:41,840 --> 00:28:47,480
Speaker 1: Dodger baseball, but also about politics. He's a Angelino, he's

521
00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:51,200
Speaker 1: a Californian, and he and I were arguing about this,

522
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 1: and on one hand we both agree that this is terrible.

523
00:28:56,560 --> 00:29:00,560
Speaker 2: And yet what he says is, what's your alternative, you know?

524
00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:06,360
Speaker 1: And my alternative is run a campaign, right, And that's

525
00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:10,239
Speaker 1: the problem, right, is that there's no when your you know,

526
00:29:10,840 --> 00:29:13,520
Speaker 1: it all depends on how you view Trump and Trump

527
00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:17,080
Speaker 1: is do you think it is such a threat that

528
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:23,120
Speaker 1: it is irreversible if some things happen, or is it

529
00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:26,320
Speaker 1: reversible if you stick to your guns, and eventually the

530
00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 1: public's going to reward you for being right. And I

531
00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:32,600
Speaker 1: think it's sort of a combination of the two. I

532
00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:36,920
Speaker 1: will say this, I think the fact that Newsome has

533
00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:41,400
Speaker 1: to go to the voters cleans it up for me. Right,

534
00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:44,840
Speaker 1: It's like, look, it's he wants to fight this, but

535
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 1: he's got to get voter permission to do it. I

536
00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 1: think it makes it more righteous than what Abbott did

537
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:52,480
Speaker 1: in Texas. Right, He's not going to the voters to

538
00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:56,680
Speaker 1: ask this decision. So in that sense, I think I

539
00:29:56,720 --> 00:30:00,000
Speaker 1: think Gavin he gets better higher marks on the democra

540
00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:06,600
Speaker 1: tests than Abbott does. But this is, you know, if

541
00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:13,000
Speaker 1: you take it to its logical conclusion, we don't have

542
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 1: you know, we go it's almost like we've repealed the

543
00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:21,160
Speaker 1: amendment that allowed for Senate elections, you know, up until

544
00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:24,720
Speaker 1: essentially the mid nineteen teens, right, I think it was

545
00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:27,560
Speaker 1: by nineteen eighteen all senators were finally elected by the

546
00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:31,880
Speaker 1: people instead of state legislatures. Well, then we're literally reversing

547
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:35,240
Speaker 1: what the founders wanted. We're going to be electing members

548
00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:38,520
Speaker 1: of Congress via the state legislatures and how they draw

549
00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:41,800
Speaker 1: the maps, and it's the senators that are the ones

550
00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:46,960
Speaker 1: that are actually more responsive to the actual people. So

551
00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:49,440
Speaker 1: I think when you throw to that to you really

552
00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:53,160
Speaker 1: have sort of you have taken the people out of

553
00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:58,200
Speaker 1: the people's house, right, So again I get it. There's

554
00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:00,800
Speaker 1: not a I don't have an answer of well, how

555
00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:03,000
Speaker 1: do you win this on the high ground? How do

556
00:31:03,040 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 1: you win this righteously? How do you win this principally?

557
00:31:07,120 --> 00:31:09,400
Speaker 1: You know, there's so many mistakes that Democrats have made

558
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:12,200
Speaker 1: and how it treated Florida in Texas that you know,

559
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:14,800
Speaker 1: you reap what you sew. You know, they're getting bullied

560
00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:18,080
Speaker 1: by the majority party in both states. Why because they surrendered.

561
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:21,640
Speaker 1: The National Party surrendered in Florida and never you know,

562
00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:24,440
Speaker 1: only talked a good game in Texas, never actually backed

563
00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:28,080
Speaker 1: it up with resources and investment. And I'm not talking

564
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:31,680
Speaker 1: about investments for one election or for six months. I'm

565
00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:34,200
Speaker 1: talking the long term, right, These are ten year projects.

566
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:37,520
Speaker 1: And now, guess what, twenty thirty two is going to

567
00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:40,400
Speaker 1: be a disaster for the Democrats and that first presidential

568
00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:44,600
Speaker 1: election after reapportionment with Texas gaining more electoral votes, Florida

569
00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:46,600
Speaker 1: gaining more electoral votes, Idaho gaining.

570
00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:49,800
Speaker 2: More electoral votes. Big, big problem.

571
00:31:49,840 --> 00:31:52,760
Speaker 1: It's going to make Georgia North Carolina Democrats are going

572
00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:56,080
Speaker 1: to have to win both states every time, plus those

573
00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 1: three Midwestern states and oh, by the way, that are

574
00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:03,720
Speaker 1: shrinking in importance than still very competitive deal with and

575
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:07,080
Speaker 1: probably you're going to throw in a Minnesota, which is

576
00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:09,680
Speaker 1: going to which continues to creep closer and closer into

577
00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 1: swing state status. So look, this, this is this is

578
00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:17,040
Speaker 1: on the You know, the Democrats are in this situation

579
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:20,719
Speaker 1: because of their their inability to be a national party

580
00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:23,200
Speaker 1: right and their decision to pull out of Florida and

581
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:26,720
Speaker 1: Texas and concede it all, and their focus on the

582
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:29,920
Speaker 1: presidency and obsession with only when the Senate and the presidency.

583
00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:34,080
Speaker 1: Terrible investment into state legislative races. Really, I'll say this,

584
00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:37,600
Speaker 1: it has really improved over the last I'd say six years.

585
00:32:38,080 --> 00:32:40,440
Speaker 1: There's been a real effort to do better in these

586
00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:45,080
Speaker 1: state elections. So there's there there. They have played ketch up.

587
00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 1: The Republican Party and the conservative movement has been so

588
00:32:49,920 --> 00:32:52,920
Speaker 1: much more focused on grassroots elections than the than the

589
00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:56,240
Speaker 1: progressive movement or the or the Democrats. You're seeing more

590
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:58,680
Speaker 1: of them now look that way, But look at school boards,

591
00:32:59,000 --> 00:33:02,440
Speaker 1: look at you know in particular, is a perfect example

592
00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:06,280
Speaker 1: of where the conservative movement tapped into some grassroots and

593
00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:10,680
Speaker 1: got there and really were able to develop. So anyway,

594
00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:16,480
Speaker 1: I get it. You're not the first person that I've

595
00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:20,280
Speaker 1: had this debate with and I don't have a then

596
00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:20,840
Speaker 1: what should they?

597
00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:21,200
Speaker 2: You know?

598
00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:26,280
Speaker 1: Okay, this is a bad idea, is you know every

599
00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:27,120
Speaker 1: other one is worse?

600
00:33:27,800 --> 00:33:30,680
Speaker 2: And maybe that's so? All right?

601
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:36,760
Speaker 1: Next question, this comes from at ten. He says, Hey, Chuck,

602
00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:39,200
Speaker 1: I'm at ten and I'm a longtime Canadian fan here

603
00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 1: all right, thank you got a lot of Canadian pen pals.

604
00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:45,160
Speaker 1: I love you guys from the suburbs of Montreal and

605
00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:46,400
Speaker 1: Leah Spofan.

606
00:33:46,480 --> 00:33:48,480
Speaker 2: I hope. My question is kind of simple.

607
00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:50,000
Speaker 1: Do you think all of the maneuvers Trump is doing

608
00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:53,040
Speaker 1: about the mail and vote registration and identification hurdles he's

609
00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:54,920
Speaker 1: trying to put in place are a tactic to be

610
00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:57,120
Speaker 1: able to contest or even not recognize the results of

611
00:33:57,120 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty six midterms. Thanks a lot, ps, I

612
00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:01,280
Speaker 1: cannot be become a fan of the Nationals as they

613
00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:02,080
Speaker 1: were stolen from US.

614
00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:04,240
Speaker 2: I totally understand that, but just so.

615
00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:08,120
Speaker 1: You know, I have become a Montreal Exposed collector of

616
00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:14,320
Speaker 1: sorts as a way of my homage to the Nationals.

617
00:34:14,160 --> 00:34:17,680
Speaker 1: It kind of helps that the Exposed team of both

618
00:34:17,680 --> 00:34:20,520
Speaker 1: eighty one and ninety four are very familiar to me.

619
00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:24,319
Speaker 1: I was a Dodger fan back in the day, and

620
00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:27,399
Speaker 1: particularly the eighty one team the Dodgers. The biggest hurdle

621
00:34:27,440 --> 00:34:29,320
Speaker 1: of the Dodgers face before facing the Yankees in the

622
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:32,920
Speaker 1: World Series was that tremendous Expo the second best Expo

623
00:34:33,040 --> 00:34:35,040
Speaker 1: team of all time, the best one being, of course,

624
00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:36,200
Speaker 1: the nineteen ninety fourteen.

625
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:39,279
Speaker 2: So I get it.

626
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:43,880
Speaker 1: You should know in our Ring of Honor in Nationals Park,

627
00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 1: all of the Expos Hall of Famers are in there.

628
00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:53,799
Speaker 1: Gary Carter, Tim Rains, Andre Dawson. So I will give

629
00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:56,839
Speaker 1: the Nationals credit. They do try, even though I think

630
00:34:56,880 --> 00:34:59,239
Speaker 1: the original owner of the Exposers screwed it up go

631
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:01,719
Speaker 1: handed the mar which I always felt as some sort

632
00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:04,840
Speaker 1: of personal affront to me. Right, I took it very personally.

633
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:07,400
Speaker 1: The jeweler, the jeweler who screwed up the expos then

634
00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:09,400
Speaker 1: came down to the Marlins and somehow messed it up

635
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:11,440
Speaker 1: even more and got a free baseball team to boot.

636
00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 2: But I digress. Let me get to your basic your

637
00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:17,839
Speaker 2: question here. It's an interesting thesis.

638
00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:21,080
Speaker 1: You know, what does he does he need all of

639
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:23,520
Speaker 1: this to contest the results of election?

640
00:35:24,200 --> 00:35:24,359
Speaker 2: Right?

641
00:35:24,920 --> 00:35:26,719
Speaker 1: I think if he doesn't like the results, he's going

642
00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:30,759
Speaker 1: to contest it regardless of this. Now, let me get

643
00:35:30,760 --> 00:35:34,200
Speaker 1: to the specifics of what he's trying to do. If

644
00:35:34,239 --> 00:35:37,920
Speaker 1: I were the Democrats, I'd agree to do this. And

645
00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:44,600
Speaker 1: here's why the Democratic Party right now, it's voters follow

646
00:35:44,600 --> 00:35:46,880
Speaker 1: all the rules, know all the rules, are aware of

647
00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:49,200
Speaker 1: what you need to vote. They're the ones that show

648
00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:51,880
Speaker 1: up in every special election. Why do Democrats continue to

649
00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:55,640
Speaker 1: overperform in any special election, whether it's in the suburbs

650
00:35:55,640 --> 00:35:58,600
Speaker 1: of Orlando, the suburbs of Des Moines, you name it, right,

651
00:35:58,640 --> 00:36:04,600
Speaker 1: They're overperforming everywhere because the suburban sort of super voter

652
00:36:05,120 --> 00:36:08,239
Speaker 1: has gone from leaning right to leaning left. They're not

653
00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:11,040
Speaker 1: all registered Democrats, that a lot of them moved from

654
00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:14,440
Speaker 1: being registered Republicans registered independence. But it is why this

655
00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:17,320
Speaker 1: suburban vote and why in the midterms in particular, Democrats

656
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:19,800
Speaker 1: now have a built in advantage.

657
00:36:20,680 --> 00:36:21,480
Speaker 2: The folks who.

658
00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:26,359
Speaker 1: Don't necessarily follow the specifics of voting all the time.

659
00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:29,000
Speaker 1: The non super voters are more likely to support Trump.

660
00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:31,680
Speaker 1: And so if you did voter ID laws, I think

661
00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:34,680
Speaker 1: it's more Trump voters would end up not being qualified

662
00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:36,239
Speaker 1: to get to the polls. You get rid of mail

663
00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:39,640
Speaker 1: in balloting, and you do early in person, it's more

664
00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:43,200
Speaker 1: likely the casual voter is a Trump voter. The casual

665
00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:47,040
Speaker 1: voter leans right these days. So the more impediments you

666
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:51,239
Speaker 1: put into voting ten years ago that was going to

667
00:36:51,320 --> 00:36:56,000
Speaker 1: hurt the Democrats, now it's going to hurt the Republicans.

668
00:36:56,280 --> 00:36:58,439
Speaker 1: So if you want to totally play game theory here,

669
00:37:00,640 --> 00:37:03,040
Speaker 1: I believe it was. Matthew Iglesias in the last week

670
00:37:03,080 --> 00:37:05,920
Speaker 1: did a really good dive on this where he said,

671
00:37:05,960 --> 00:37:10,160
Speaker 1: you know, if Democrats get the House, this should be

672
00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:14,200
Speaker 1: that in exchange for basically funding early more early in

673
00:37:14,200 --> 00:37:19,560
Speaker 1: person voting, that Democrats ought to make the compromise voter

674
00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:22,360
Speaker 1: ID and getting rid of mail in voting for everybody

675
00:37:22,360 --> 00:37:26,040
Speaker 1: except the military. Because all of it, all of these

676
00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:31,040
Speaker 1: if you look at the demographics of each party, all

677
00:37:31,080 --> 00:37:35,040
Speaker 1: of these impediments that Trump wants to introduce are going

678
00:37:35,120 --> 00:37:38,719
Speaker 1: to impact Republicans a lot more these.

679
00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:41,520
Speaker 2: Days than it impacts Democrats. Just something that you want.

680
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:45,239
Speaker 1: I am not Tony Korneisers who I do not have

681
00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:47,800
Speaker 1: my maple leaf flag, but maybe I ought to acquire

682
00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:52,960
Speaker 1: one from my Canadian friends. So anyway, I hope you

683
00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:56,080
Speaker 1: will at least not be a NAT's hater. By the way,

684
00:37:56,200 --> 00:37:59,680
Speaker 1: all right, next question comes from John in New Jersey.

685
00:38:00,400 --> 00:38:02,359
Speaker 1: Just a quick question in comment your substeck this week

686
00:38:02,360 --> 00:38:05,560
Speaker 1: feels spot on regarding Democrats fighting for something, but also

687
00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:07,879
Speaker 1: feels a little in conflict with your perspective on dem

688
00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:11,600
Speaker 1: state Texas state legislatures fleeing the special session last month.

689
00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:13,200
Speaker 1: Is there a line for you where fighting will always

690
00:38:13,239 --> 00:38:15,840
Speaker 1: be the wrong move? Maybe these are not conflicting opinions

691
00:38:15,840 --> 00:38:21,480
Speaker 1: at all. Thanks again for everything. Let's go mets it. Look,

692
00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:26,200
Speaker 1: it's the question, is you know if you're going to

693
00:38:26,280 --> 00:38:30,719
Speaker 1: pro You know, most protests fail in the moment, but

694
00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:34,920
Speaker 1: a protest movement that fails in the moment builds support

695
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 1: and can succeed in.

696
00:38:36,000 --> 00:38:36,520
Speaker 2: The long term.

697
00:38:36,600 --> 00:38:40,520
Speaker 1: Right, So it just it's all about do you have

698
00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:43,360
Speaker 1: an endgame and do you have an exit strategy? I

699
00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:46,839
Speaker 1: think I think what Texas Democrats did was within the

700
00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:49,919
Speaker 1: To me, I had no issue with what they did.

701
00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:52,840
Speaker 1: If you actually saw, I thought what they were doing

702
00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:55,960
Speaker 1: was within that's what you should be doing. Hey, we're

703
00:38:55,960 --> 00:38:59,080
Speaker 1: gonna deny a quorum. Okay, they said, fine, we're gonna

704
00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:02,000
Speaker 1: get They were looking to see were there any Republicans

705
00:39:02,080 --> 00:39:04,120
Speaker 1: that were going to be saying, you know what, maybe

706
00:39:04,160 --> 00:39:08,359
Speaker 1: they're right, So it was it was worth trying to see.

707
00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:10,279
Speaker 1: So I was never critical of what they were doing.

708
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:15,040
Speaker 1: My criticism is for essentially is going to other states

709
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:18,960
Speaker 1: and disenfranchising voters there in the name of competing with Texas.

710
00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:23,200
Speaker 1: Who's disenfranchising voters there? Right, That's that's what I'm I

711
00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:26,920
Speaker 1: think it's it's more of the principle. But you know,

712
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:29,799
Speaker 1: to me, I actually think the Texas Democrats sort of

713
00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 1: they did what they did it they denied the quorum

714
00:39:32,719 --> 00:39:34,560
Speaker 1: and left, and I think it was it was all

715
00:39:34,560 --> 00:39:38,080
Speaker 1: about testing the will of them of the right. We

716
00:39:38,239 --> 00:39:40,840
Speaker 1: you know, we had all heard the whispers you're gonna

717
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:43,840
Speaker 1: and if you just listened to the conversation, hopefully you

718
00:39:43,880 --> 00:39:46,439
Speaker 1: just heard the conversation with Jake and Anna, where Jake

719
00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:50,880
Speaker 1: spoke of an anonymous Texas Republican who said, I just

720
00:39:50,920 --> 00:39:52,799
Speaker 1: got to know this district, now you're making me learn

721
00:39:52,800 --> 00:39:56,520
Speaker 1: another one. There were no Republicans that wanted this in

722
00:39:56,600 --> 00:40:00,680
Speaker 1: Texas except I don't think there was any Textan that

723
00:40:00,680 --> 00:40:02,960
Speaker 1: wanted It was Donald Trump, and nobody wants to say

724
00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:03,520
Speaker 1: no to Trump.

725
00:40:04,600 --> 00:40:07,040
Speaker 2: So I think what they did.

726
00:40:07,239 --> 00:40:10,080
Speaker 1: You leave the state and you basically see, you know,

727
00:40:10,560 --> 00:40:13,400
Speaker 1: if we kill one special session, will they you know,

728
00:40:13,440 --> 00:40:15,799
Speaker 1: will they concede? And the answer was no. They called

729
00:40:15,840 --> 00:40:17,320
Speaker 1: another one, will they fold?

730
00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:18,040
Speaker 2: The answer was no.

731
00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:21,080
Speaker 1: So at some point, you know and what And I

732
00:40:21,120 --> 00:40:24,960
Speaker 1: would argue that actually what the Texas Democratic legislators did

733
00:40:25,360 --> 00:40:26,680
Speaker 1: was successful.

734
00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:26,880
Speaker 2: In this respect.

735
00:40:27,160 --> 00:40:31,200
Speaker 1: They got national attention, It brought into focus this issue.

736
00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:38,960
Speaker 1: Now it may have triggered this nationwide redistricting war, but

737
00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:42,160
Speaker 1: ultimately it gave Democrats something to fight for for the

738
00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:44,960
Speaker 1: first time, and they are fighting and I and to me,

739
00:40:45,080 --> 00:40:50,000
Speaker 1: it's that response that I see happening with Newsome that

740
00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:53,240
Speaker 1: makes me think that. Look and again, when you're arguing

741
00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:59,160
Speaker 1: over our budget, you know, you know we've I don't

742
00:40:59,200 --> 00:41:01,320
Speaker 1: know if you've ever bought a car, but the most

743
00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:04,760
Speaker 1: the greatest feeling I've ever had is walking away from

744
00:41:05,080 --> 00:41:08,200
Speaker 1: a purchase right. I've done it only once.

745
00:41:08,800 --> 00:41:08,960
Speaker 2: Right.

746
00:41:09,120 --> 00:41:11,600
Speaker 1: Most of the time when I've gone to buy a car,

747
00:41:11,840 --> 00:41:13,600
Speaker 1: I knew what I wanted. I kind of knew the

748
00:41:13,640 --> 00:41:15,120
Speaker 1: price range. I'm like, if they just hit this, and

749
00:41:15,120 --> 00:41:18,239
Speaker 1: I've never had an issue. But one time I ran

750
00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:21,760
Speaker 1: into an issue and I thought, no, they're playing games.

751
00:41:21,760 --> 00:41:24,640
Speaker 1: I'm out, And sure enough it worked. I literally had

752
00:41:24,680 --> 00:41:26,799
Speaker 1: to leave and it wasn't until the next day that

753
00:41:26,840 --> 00:41:29,440
Speaker 1: they called. But I was like, vindication is mine. I

754
00:41:29,480 --> 00:41:32,719
Speaker 1: did my own little you know, Chevrolet shutdown.

755
00:41:33,200 --> 00:41:34,960
Speaker 2: It was for a Chevrolet.

756
00:41:35,200 --> 00:41:37,080
Speaker 1: I'm not going to say the dealership because I actually

757
00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:42,560
Speaker 1: liked the dealership that I deal with over there. So

758
00:41:42,640 --> 00:41:45,200
Speaker 1: it is empowering, but it's a to me legitimate It's

759
00:41:45,239 --> 00:41:47,720
Speaker 1: a legitimate moment when you're doing dealing with the budget

760
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:50,440
Speaker 1: and spending and all of that. To not agree to

761
00:41:50,480 --> 00:41:53,239
Speaker 1: the deal, right, you've got skin in the game. So

762
00:41:54,520 --> 00:41:56,680
Speaker 1: but what I do think the Democrats have to do

763
00:41:56,760 --> 00:42:01,000
Speaker 1: is know what your exit strategy is. What are you willing,

764
00:42:01,200 --> 00:42:03,960
Speaker 1: what are you fighting for? Have a specific goal in mind,

765
00:42:04,000 --> 00:42:05,960
Speaker 1: And that's what I was laying out. If you're going

766
00:42:06,000 --> 00:42:08,279
Speaker 1: to do this, is it for Obama? You know what

767
00:42:08,360 --> 00:42:12,520
Speaker 1: will bring you to the table. Obamacare subsidies. I ultimately

768
00:42:12,520 --> 00:42:14,719
Speaker 1: think that's a pretty good thing to fight for. Healthcare

769
00:42:15,239 --> 00:42:18,759
Speaker 1: is the better the best issue Democrat. Democrats have proven

770
00:42:18,760 --> 00:42:20,560
Speaker 1: to be better about fighting for that issue than any

771
00:42:20,560 --> 00:42:23,319
Speaker 1: other over the last decade, and voters are moved by it.

772
00:42:24,280 --> 00:42:25,440
Speaker 2: So that would be something.

773
00:42:26,040 --> 00:42:28,680
Speaker 1: Is it for demanding a vote on the tariffs? That's

774
00:42:28,680 --> 00:42:31,279
Speaker 1: something to do, right, you know, But but have a

775
00:42:31,320 --> 00:42:35,880
Speaker 1: demand that is semi realistic to be met so that

776
00:42:35,960 --> 00:42:38,400
Speaker 1: you have an exit strategy and then when it's not

777
00:42:38,560 --> 00:42:42,439
Speaker 1: met you you can come across as the reasonable one.

778
00:42:42,760 --> 00:42:47,080
Speaker 1: Right there, the Republican deal is likely to be fully clean,

779
00:42:47,840 --> 00:42:49,040
Speaker 1: you know, continuing resolution.

780
00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:51,560
Speaker 2: Is it really going to be fully clean? Right?

781
00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:54,239
Speaker 1: That's going to be one test, But that's how they're

782
00:42:54,280 --> 00:42:56,880
Speaker 1: going to try to have the high ground. So you

783
00:42:56,920 --> 00:42:59,480
Speaker 1: know it is I think it's a legitimate moment to

784
00:42:59,520 --> 00:43:05,160
Speaker 1: do this, but you better know you better have a

785
00:43:05,200 --> 00:43:09,560
Speaker 1: clear vision of why you're doing it and a clear

786
00:43:09,600 --> 00:43:12,080
Speaker 1: explanation to the voters for why you're doing it. And

787
00:43:12,120 --> 00:43:14,319
Speaker 1: if you know, we know it's because you don't trust

788
00:43:14,360 --> 00:43:18,759
Speaker 1: Trump with spending, that's fine, but be specific on what

789
00:43:18,800 --> 00:43:20,759
Speaker 1: you're looking for, Like, look, we don't trust him, But

790
00:43:20,880 --> 00:43:24,000
Speaker 1: can we at least get the Obama tax credits here?

791
00:43:24,000 --> 00:43:26,600
Speaker 1: Because guess who also wants that. There's quite a few

792
00:43:26,600 --> 00:43:29,120
Speaker 1: Republican senators who don't like the Medicaid cuts, who would

793
00:43:29,160 --> 00:43:32,279
Speaker 1: like to throw a bone at their constituents and that

794
00:43:32,440 --> 00:43:36,040
Speaker 1: not also take away the subsidies on Obamacare. So you know,

795
00:43:36,360 --> 00:43:39,040
Speaker 1: I actually think it's a reasonable thing to do, and

796
00:43:39,360 --> 00:43:41,319
Speaker 1: at this point you might as well get on the

797
00:43:41,360 --> 00:43:44,399
Speaker 1: side of being getting credit for that rather than have

798
00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:47,279
Speaker 1: Republicans do it, and Trump tries to take credit for it,

799
00:43:47,880 --> 00:43:52,080
Speaker 1: which he's very good at doing. All right. Next question

800
00:43:52,680 --> 00:43:57,320
Speaker 1: comes from an anonymous person from Granite Falls, North Carolina,

801
00:43:58,280 --> 00:44:00,760
Speaker 1: but he's not too anonymous because he starts with la Chiesai.

802
00:44:01,520 --> 00:44:04,040
Speaker 1: And for those of you that know, you know, I

803
00:44:04,080 --> 00:44:06,000
Speaker 1: appreciate it. I hope you heard my picks this week

804
00:44:06,080 --> 00:44:09,239
Speaker 1: on Tony I listened to your podcasts and many other

805
00:44:09,280 --> 00:44:12,120
Speaker 1: political and business podcasts. Why doesn't anyone mention that President

806
00:44:12,160 --> 00:44:15,160
Speaker 1: Trump was found to have fraudulently filled out loan documents

807
00:44:15,160 --> 00:44:18,640
Speaker 1: in a civil case. That such a point, there's always

808
00:44:18,680 --> 00:44:20,760
Speaker 1: a Trump issue, let alone a Trump tweet.

809
00:44:20,840 --> 00:44:21,040
Speaker 2: Right.

810
00:44:21,760 --> 00:44:24,840
Speaker 1: The Lisa Cook issues is all about filling out loan documents.

811
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:27,320
Speaker 1: If she can't be trusted to a fed governor ship,

812
00:44:27,320 --> 00:44:29,440
Speaker 1: why should the president be trusted to be the president?

813
00:44:30,719 --> 00:44:34,680
Speaker 1: You know, it's it all goes back to the original

814
00:44:34,719 --> 00:44:39,160
Speaker 1: campaign against Donald Trump that Democrats. You know, look, yes,

815
00:44:39,200 --> 00:44:41,759
Speaker 1: you're right about all of this, and there are so

816
00:44:42,040 --> 00:44:45,520
Speaker 1: there is such a laundry list of terrible business practices

817
00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:50,839
Speaker 1: and terrible character traits that Trump has accumulated over four

818
00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:55,680
Speaker 1: decades that you know how often Republicans that ran against

819
00:44:55,719 --> 00:44:59,040
Speaker 1: him in twenty fifteen and twenty sixteen, and how often

820
00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:02,080
Speaker 1: Democrats and Hillary Clinton who ran against him in twenty

821
00:45:02,080 --> 00:45:05,160
Speaker 1: fifteen and twenty sixteen. You know how often they did

822
00:45:05,200 --> 00:45:11,839
Speaker 1: that campaign against him? It was practically nothing, okay, And

823
00:45:11,880 --> 00:45:16,600
Speaker 1: I remember it being and this was the biggest mistake

824
00:45:16,719 --> 00:45:19,719
Speaker 1: that everybody made. There was an assumption that everybody knew

825
00:45:19,800 --> 00:45:22,760
Speaker 1: the bad stuff about Trump, that because you knew Trump,

826
00:45:22,760 --> 00:45:25,600
Speaker 1: that you knew at all the good and the bad.

827
00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:29,839
Speaker 1: And I think there was a presumption I can tell

828
00:45:29,840 --> 00:45:31,400
Speaker 1: you this, I had a presumption.

829
00:45:31,600 --> 00:45:34,960
Speaker 2: I'll just speak for myself that I'm like, well.

830
00:45:34,960 --> 00:45:37,120
Speaker 1: We all know this guy's like always full of shit

831
00:45:37,160 --> 00:45:40,600
Speaker 1: in New York, right, Like nobody thinks he's a real developer.

832
00:45:40,960 --> 00:45:44,080
Speaker 1: You know, it's always sort of a phony thing. This

833
00:45:44,360 --> 00:45:47,759
Speaker 1: like Trump branded stuff is always phony. Everybody gets it right,

834
00:45:47,800 --> 00:45:49,719
Speaker 1: that this is all a griff, that it's all sort of,

835
00:45:50,120 --> 00:45:52,200
Speaker 1: you know, a show that it isn't there's really no

836
00:45:52,280 --> 00:45:56,640
Speaker 1: substance that there's really no Trump business beyond owning that building,

837
00:45:56,680 --> 00:45:59,800
Speaker 1: That there was no there there, that his golf courses

838
00:45:59,840 --> 00:46:03,880
Speaker 1: were all leveraged and everything was leveraged, and it was

839
00:46:04,320 --> 00:46:06,759
Speaker 1: a lot more of o PM other people's money that

840
00:46:06,840 --> 00:46:09,000
Speaker 1: he leased his name to buildings. He wasn't even an

841
00:46:09,000 --> 00:46:12,880
Speaker 1: owner of these properties. He was just licensing his brand.

842
00:46:14,880 --> 00:46:16,879
Speaker 1: But nobody did, you know when you think about the

843
00:46:16,960 --> 00:46:20,360
Speaker 1: campaign against Mitt Romney, which took every business deal he

844
00:46:20,440 --> 00:46:24,680
Speaker 1: ever did at Bain and educated the public with it

845
00:46:25,080 --> 00:46:33,000
Speaker 1: and made direct comparisons right now, because most because political

846
00:46:33,000 --> 00:46:35,520
Speaker 1: opponents of Romney, both on the Republican primary and in

847
00:46:35,560 --> 00:46:37,920
Speaker 1: the Democratic side, were like, hey, I don't think the

848
00:46:38,000 --> 00:46:40,320
Speaker 1: voters know this, or they want to educate the voters

849
00:46:40,520 --> 00:46:43,399
Speaker 1: and see if they really want this sort of very

850
00:46:43,480 --> 00:46:48,120
Speaker 1: you know, this businessman in charge of the government. That

851
00:46:48,120 --> 00:46:51,680
Speaker 1: that campaign was never run against Trump, right, Jeb Bush

852
00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:54,080
Speaker 1: spent more money trying to damage Marco Rubio.

853
00:46:53,920 --> 00:46:55,400
Speaker 2: Than he did. Donald Trump.

854
00:46:57,360 --> 00:47:02,080
Speaker 1: And Hillary Clinton kept doing the character things, kept going

855
00:47:02,120 --> 00:47:06,680
Speaker 1: to the Russia thing rather than frankly, if you did

856
00:47:06,680 --> 00:47:09,880
Speaker 1: the methodical f you just did the bankruptcies, and you

857
00:47:10,120 --> 00:47:13,359
Speaker 1: just did the financial funny business, and you just did

858
00:47:13,440 --> 00:47:17,319
Speaker 1: the grift that early on as sort of you may think,

859
00:47:17,360 --> 00:47:19,520
Speaker 1: you know Donald Trump and he's a fun guy in

860
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:20,000
Speaker 1: this and this.

861
00:47:20,120 --> 00:47:20,719
Speaker 2: Did you know?

862
00:47:21,800 --> 00:47:23,919
Speaker 1: They never did that? And now it is too late.

863
00:47:24,880 --> 00:47:28,080
Speaker 1: Now it's all baked in. Now you know, now he

864
00:47:28,120 --> 00:47:30,880
Speaker 1: actually is wealthy. He wasn't a real billionaire. Now he

865
00:47:31,000 --> 00:47:34,600
Speaker 1: is on paper thanks to these bitcoin scams that he's

866
00:47:34,600 --> 00:47:38,359
Speaker 1: gotten himself involved in. It's you know, by the way,

867
00:47:38,400 --> 00:47:40,839
Speaker 1: I mean, I think we've all learned apparently if you're

868
00:47:40,960 --> 00:47:44,560
Speaker 1: just a criminal and plain sight, no one cares. Right,

869
00:47:45,040 --> 00:47:47,160
Speaker 1: the cover up is the it we you know, it

870
00:47:47,280 --> 00:47:49,080
Speaker 1: always is. The cover up is worse than a crime,

871
00:47:49,120 --> 00:47:52,400
Speaker 1: forget it. The cover up is the only crime that

872
00:47:52,480 --> 00:47:56,279
Speaker 1: we seem to you know, we're all always outraged about

873
00:47:56,320 --> 00:47:59,880
Speaker 1: cover ups, Right, what's everybody's upset?

874
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:02,400
Speaker 2: Uh? The cover up of the Epstein files.

875
00:48:04,239 --> 00:48:09,240
Speaker 1: But he's been accused of sexual assault and has actually

876
00:48:09,320 --> 00:48:14,319
Speaker 1: been held liable in a civil court. But that's out

877
00:48:14,400 --> 00:48:20,759
Speaker 1: in public, that's not covered up. It's so you're right

878
00:48:20,960 --> 00:48:25,120
Speaker 1: about the least of the comparisons, like, let's look at

879
00:48:25,160 --> 00:48:27,440
Speaker 1: all the mortgage loans that Donald Trump and all the

880
00:48:27,600 --> 00:48:31,000
Speaker 1: artificial I mean, one of the one of the ways

881
00:48:31,000 --> 00:48:35,080
Speaker 1: that they were trying to uh that they convicted Trump

882
00:48:35,840 --> 00:48:39,600
Speaker 1: was over the falsification of loan documents in New York.

883
00:48:40,160 --> 00:48:42,360
Speaker 1: That was that was sort of the angle that Leticia

884
00:48:42,440 --> 00:48:46,359
Speaker 1: James took. Look you go through these LLCs that he

885
00:48:46,400 --> 00:48:49,360
Speaker 1: creates for every golf course he acquires, and I promise

886
00:48:49,400 --> 00:48:52,799
Speaker 1: you look at those loan documents and the assessments that

887
00:48:52,880 --> 00:48:57,040
Speaker 1: they you know, the the they somehow, you know, he

888
00:48:57,239 --> 00:49:00,160
Speaker 1: very cleverly always seems to get sort of too two

889
00:49:00,200 --> 00:49:03,840
Speaker 1: different inspections. One that lowers the price so he pays

890
00:49:03,880 --> 00:49:07,239
Speaker 1: low property taxes, and then one that overvalues the price

891
00:49:07,320 --> 00:49:09,200
Speaker 1: so we can borrow extra money on the on the

892
00:49:09,239 --> 00:49:11,080
Speaker 1: equity line and use that over there.

893
00:49:11,680 --> 00:49:12,480
Speaker 2: You know, you're going to.

894
00:49:12,480 --> 00:49:16,600
Speaker 1: Tell me that that that those forms that the same.

895
00:49:16,800 --> 00:49:19,440
Speaker 1: He's filed two sets of forms with two sets of values,

896
00:49:20,280 --> 00:49:22,600
Speaker 1: all are in government documents that would all be loan

897
00:49:22,680 --> 00:49:25,680
Speaker 1: you know, mortgage fraud. We already went down that road

898
00:49:25,680 --> 00:49:28,759
Speaker 1: with him. But anyway, again, I go back to the

899
00:49:28,840 --> 00:49:35,360
Speaker 1: original sin on Trump was not was was was assuming

900
00:49:35,400 --> 00:49:38,920
Speaker 1: everybody knew everything about him? And that was I think

901
00:49:38,960 --> 00:49:44,360
Speaker 1: the original sin. All right, next question comes from pure Illinois.

902
00:49:44,800 --> 00:49:45,960
Speaker 1: Back in the day, it used to be how's a

903
00:49:46,000 --> 00:49:48,640
Speaker 1: plane in Peoria? That was the I think there was

904
00:49:48,680 --> 00:49:51,880
Speaker 1: an LBJ. What LBJ care about? Evert dirksin people like that.

905
00:49:52,000 --> 00:49:54,200
Speaker 1: But anyway, let's let's go here. I'm at number five.

906
00:49:55,320 --> 00:49:57,279
Speaker 1: I think I might do it. We might get eight

907
00:49:57,320 --> 00:50:01,319
Speaker 1: and a half hour. We shall see Greg W. From

908
00:50:01,360 --> 00:50:03,800
Speaker 1: Pure Illinois. Hey, Chuck, my question focus is on redistricting.

909
00:50:03,800 --> 00:50:06,000
Speaker 1: I agree it's shortsighted to fight fire with fire. So

910
00:50:06,000 --> 00:50:07,640
Speaker 1: how long and difficult would it be for the DNC

911
00:50:07,760 --> 00:50:09,560
Speaker 1: to find viable candidates and build the support in the

912
00:50:09,560 --> 00:50:12,160
Speaker 1: groundwork in the weaker red districts, especially since the DNC

913
00:50:12,239 --> 00:50:14,919
Speaker 1: has spent two years de investing in red states. Thank

914
00:50:14,960 --> 00:50:17,840
Speaker 1: you for also giving something for my son and I

915
00:50:17,960 --> 00:50:20,600
Speaker 1: to listen to and talk about sports and politics.

916
00:50:21,239 --> 00:50:22,399
Speaker 2: There you go. I'm by the way.

917
00:50:22,400 --> 00:50:25,600
Speaker 1: I'm slowly my son list loves to talk about sports.

918
00:50:25,760 --> 00:50:28,880
Speaker 1: He's slowly but surely getting more interested in politics, But

919
00:50:28,920 --> 00:50:31,359
Speaker 1: I understand why he's it's you know, when you grow

920
00:50:31,440 --> 00:50:34,960
Speaker 1: up in a political town, it's it's sometimes want the distraction.

921
00:50:35,200 --> 00:50:36,960
Speaker 1: So we spend a lot more time talking about sports.

922
00:50:37,000 --> 00:50:39,040
Speaker 1: But my son did text me over the weekend going, hey,

923
00:50:39,080 --> 00:50:41,000
Speaker 1: what's going on with Trump? Is he dead or alive?

924
00:50:41,880 --> 00:50:47,360
Speaker 1: Which tells you what his feed was feeding him there.

925
00:50:49,560 --> 00:50:56,400
Speaker 1: You know, I think this is where I think the

926
00:50:56,400 --> 00:51:01,480
Speaker 1: the attention that the State House Democrats gave to the

927
00:51:01,520 --> 00:51:06,239
Speaker 1: issue in theory should help with candidate recruiting. But you've

928
00:51:06,239 --> 00:51:09,719
Speaker 1: got to you know, you know, I'm curious if the

929
00:51:09,800 --> 00:51:11,799
Speaker 1: DNC or the d Triple C we're serious about this,

930
00:51:11,880 --> 00:51:15,280
Speaker 1: they'd say, you know, they'd start a fund, right, which

931
00:51:15,320 --> 00:51:18,720
Speaker 1: is like you know, the Dummy Mander fund or something,

932
00:51:18,760 --> 00:51:21,520
Speaker 1: and like we're we're you know, looking for and they

933
00:51:21,560 --> 00:51:23,440
Speaker 1: are trying to recruit. But I almost would put a

934
00:51:23,480 --> 00:51:26,040
Speaker 1: knee on sign up and say, you know, do you

935
00:51:26,120 --> 00:51:29,120
Speaker 1: not like this? Are you an independent voter that's frustrated

936
00:51:29,160 --> 00:51:31,399
Speaker 1: by this? You know, we're looking for candidates to run

937
00:51:31,400 --> 00:51:33,040
Speaker 1: in these states and we'll support your bid whether you're

938
00:51:33,040 --> 00:51:37,759
Speaker 1: an independent Democrat whatever, and even run on the platform that, hey,

939
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:39,440
Speaker 1: if we get control of Congress, we're going to want

940
00:51:39,440 --> 00:51:42,359
Speaker 1: to put limits on redissecting. And by the way, maybe

941
00:51:42,400 --> 00:51:44,319
Speaker 1: you make it this this goes. You know, you have

942
00:51:44,360 --> 00:51:49,200
Speaker 1: a more realistic political and voting reform bill that you

943
00:51:49,280 --> 00:51:51,200
Speaker 1: try to get bipartisans support for, and you get rid

944
00:51:51,239 --> 00:51:54,160
Speaker 1: of mail in voting for Trump, and you add voter

945
00:51:54,239 --> 00:51:56,160
Speaker 1: I D in and at the same time you put

946
00:51:56,239 --> 00:52:00,279
Speaker 1: a a restriction of any state you know, not being

947
00:52:00,280 --> 00:52:02,640
Speaker 1: able to you know, without a federal court order having

948
00:52:02,640 --> 00:52:06,400
Speaker 1: a redistrict or something like that. But they ought to

949
00:52:06,600 --> 00:52:10,680
Speaker 1: have a have a Texas fund to look for candidates,

950
00:52:11,040 --> 00:52:14,960
Speaker 1: you know, just like if I were the Republicans in California,

951
00:52:15,080 --> 00:52:17,640
Speaker 1: California fund right now they're spending the money to try

952
00:52:17,640 --> 00:52:18,120
Speaker 1: to stop it.

953
00:52:18,320 --> 00:52:19,759
Speaker 2: But if they don't, you.

954
00:52:19,680 --> 00:52:21,680
Speaker 1: Know, then they only have you know, the trick for

955
00:52:21,719 --> 00:52:24,399
Speaker 1: the Republicans, they only have like a week a couple

956
00:52:24,440 --> 00:52:27,680
Speaker 1: of weeks before filing deadline hits in California to do

957
00:52:27,719 --> 00:52:30,799
Speaker 1: that versus and in Texas the same thing to wait.

958
00:52:31,080 --> 00:52:34,840
Speaker 1: You know, they ought to start looking for it right now.

959
00:52:34,880 --> 00:52:39,280
Speaker 1: It might be a little late, but you know it's funny,

960
00:52:39,320 --> 00:52:41,640
Speaker 1: is the best candidates for Democrats to be recruiting are

961
00:52:41,640 --> 00:52:44,160
Speaker 1: people that have never run before, So in some ways

962
00:52:44,880 --> 00:52:46,640
Speaker 1: it's the new that they should be looking for.

963
00:52:46,719 --> 00:52:49,839
Speaker 2: I'd be looking for military veterans if I were them.

964
00:52:50,239 --> 00:52:52,040
Speaker 2: But is it possible?

965
00:52:52,239 --> 00:52:56,520
Speaker 1: Look, if you're willing to invest, it's always possible, you know.

966
00:52:56,640 --> 00:52:58,759
Speaker 1: Maybe that's the world Beto Rourke plays if he doesn't

967
00:52:58,840 --> 00:53:01,560
Speaker 1: run for any office himself, where he becomes sort of

968
00:53:01,600 --> 00:53:05,160
Speaker 1: the rain maker to try to raise money, raise awareness,

969
00:53:05,400 --> 00:53:15,239
Speaker 1: and recruit candidates. Next question comes from Angela from Moreo, Louisiana.

970
00:53:16,800 --> 00:53:20,080
Speaker 1: She says she's Angel Hope on substack. Good to know, Hey, Chuck,

971
00:53:20,080 --> 00:53:22,239
Speaker 1: I just stumbled on the idea that Texas redistricting could

972
00:53:22,239 --> 00:53:25,480
Speaker 1: backfire into a dummy mandering snaffo, potentially putting up to

973
00:53:25,520 --> 00:53:27,719
Speaker 1: ten districts in play. It's fascinating ripple effect and I'm

974
00:53:27,719 --> 00:53:30,040
Speaker 1: curious how this dynamic plays not just in Texas, but

975
00:53:30,080 --> 00:53:33,280
Speaker 1: also in California and other states considering mid decade redistricting

976
00:53:33,280 --> 00:53:35,640
Speaker 1: as a way to fight fire with fire. Could Democrats

977
00:53:35,680 --> 00:53:37,640
Speaker 1: be walking into the same trap? And does an endlist

978
00:53:37,719 --> 00:53:40,080
Speaker 1: hit for tet ultimately even the score? And how did

979
00:53:40,120 --> 00:53:42,920
Speaker 1: mid decade redistricting even become normalized? Wasn't it supposed to

980
00:53:42,960 --> 00:53:45,399
Speaker 1: be tied to the census. Thanks for keeping the analysis sharp.

981
00:53:45,480 --> 00:53:47,960
Speaker 1: I'd love to hear your take on this. Well, look,

982
00:53:48,040 --> 00:53:50,480
Speaker 1: I mean we got to this point because and it

983
00:53:50,520 --> 00:53:53,520
Speaker 1: was really Texas has pioneered this right. Texas did a

984
00:53:53,600 --> 00:53:57,280
Speaker 1: mid redistricting map tolm delay back in the day, about

985
00:53:57,280 --> 00:53:58,840
Speaker 1: twenty years ago did this. I think it was in

986
00:53:58,840 --> 00:54:01,319
Speaker 1: two thousand and three, the first time we had sort

987
00:54:01,360 --> 00:54:03,560
Speaker 1: of a mid map redistricting. It was a big fight.

988
00:54:03,960 --> 00:54:05,840
Speaker 1: I think that was something you know, back then, it

989
00:54:06,560 --> 00:54:09,719
Speaker 1: was the same thing and what you have, you know,

990
00:54:09,760 --> 00:54:12,319
Speaker 1: it's funny and in the twenty ten census and the

991
00:54:12,360 --> 00:54:15,480
Speaker 1: reapportionment after twenty ten is a perfect example. So the

992
00:54:15,520 --> 00:54:20,040
Speaker 1: Republicans controlled the twenty you know, twenty eleven reapportionment. Other

993
00:54:20,120 --> 00:54:24,840
Speaker 1: than that, you had the Obama Justice Department certainly, you know,

994
00:54:25,040 --> 00:54:27,160
Speaker 1: in charge of the voting rights. It was the first

995
00:54:27,160 --> 00:54:31,239
Speaker 1: time there was a democratic justice department overseeing reapportionment in

996
00:54:31,640 --> 00:54:37,239
Speaker 1: some thirty years, because in two thousand and one it

997
00:54:37,280 --> 00:54:39,520
Speaker 1: was the Bush Justice Department. In nineteen ninety one, it

998
00:54:39,560 --> 00:54:41,799
Speaker 1: was the other Bush Justice Department, nineteen eighty one, it

999
00:54:41,840 --> 00:54:44,120
Speaker 1: was the Reagan Justice Department. In nineteen seventy one, it

1000
00:54:44,200 --> 00:54:46,480
Speaker 1: was the Nixon Justice Department. So it wasn't in you know,

1001
00:54:46,480 --> 00:54:48,880
Speaker 1: it's nineteen fifty one, sixty one, and we didn't have

1002
00:54:48,880 --> 00:54:51,319
Speaker 1: a Voting Rights Ack then, right, this is the first one.

1003
00:54:51,600 --> 00:54:53,400
Speaker 1: So this was a first time a Democrat in the

1004
00:54:53,440 --> 00:54:55,840
Speaker 1: era of the Voting Rights Act that was passing sixty

1005
00:54:55,840 --> 00:54:58,719
Speaker 1: five was sort of overseeing reapportionment.

1006
00:54:59,200 --> 00:54:59,880
Speaker 2: But for mo.

1007
00:55:00,360 --> 00:55:02,600
Speaker 1: Inside the states, it was mostly Republicans that were in

1008
00:55:02,680 --> 00:55:05,040
Speaker 1: charge of the map, and they had a big advantage

1009
00:55:05,080 --> 00:55:07,560
Speaker 1: right the twenty twenty ten you know, and they were

1010
00:55:07,600 --> 00:55:11,000
Speaker 1: able to protect that and got their house reelected in

1011
00:55:11,040 --> 00:55:14,040
Speaker 1: twenty twelve, got some seats that they lost in twelve,

1012
00:55:14,120 --> 00:55:14,360
Speaker 1: got a.

1013
00:55:14,360 --> 00:55:15,120
Speaker 2: Back in fourteen.

1014
00:55:15,600 --> 00:55:18,640
Speaker 1: But what happened in that sense in the you know,

1015
00:55:18,680 --> 00:55:22,200
Speaker 1: by twenty eighteen, you know, the suburban districts became less

1016
00:55:22,200 --> 00:55:27,799
Speaker 1: republican Trump sort of the light bush Republicans became less Republican.

1017
00:55:27,920 --> 00:55:32,560
Speaker 1: And then you know, so that you know, every reapportionment eventually,

1018
00:55:32,719 --> 00:55:34,759
Speaker 1: you know, you grow out of what you think the

1019
00:55:37,280 --> 00:55:40,120
Speaker 1: the D versus are breakdown's going to be. It's always

1020
00:55:40,120 --> 00:55:43,480
Speaker 1: interesting to me if you look at the if you

1021
00:55:43,520 --> 00:55:45,799
Speaker 1: look at sort of the last house, you know, mid

1022
00:55:45,920 --> 00:55:48,640
Speaker 1: term before if you ever look at the last mid

1023
00:55:48,719 --> 00:55:51,720
Speaker 1: term before the next reapportionment, you know, and how different

1024
00:55:51,760 --> 00:55:55,719
Speaker 1: it is from the first mid term after the reapportionment.

1025
00:55:57,360 --> 00:55:59,919
Speaker 2: You can you can really see how far off it goes.

1026
00:56:00,120 --> 00:56:03,359
Speaker 1: So I do think if you go down this road,

1027
00:56:03,400 --> 00:56:06,360
Speaker 1: what it really has done is there's only going to

1028
00:56:06,400 --> 00:56:11,279
Speaker 1: be say thirty seats that are with that where the

1029
00:56:11,560 --> 00:56:14,080
Speaker 1: where the majority party has fifty five percent or less.

1030
00:56:14,400 --> 00:56:16,960
Speaker 1: Back in my old hotline days, that the number the

1031
00:56:17,200 --> 00:56:20,120
Speaker 1: agreed upon numbers. Any in any member of Congress that

1032
00:56:20,200 --> 00:56:22,600
Speaker 1: got fifty five percent or less automatically got put on

1033
00:56:22,640 --> 00:56:25,399
Speaker 1: my watch list back in the day, Right, that's always

1034
00:56:25,440 --> 00:56:28,920
Speaker 1: the marker I've used fifty five percent. And then you know,

1035
00:56:29,760 --> 00:56:31,839
Speaker 1: you know, and then you sort of anybody in the

1036
00:56:31,960 --> 00:56:34,879
Speaker 1: fifty six fifty seven to fifty eight range, you know,

1037
00:56:35,040 --> 00:56:38,120
Speaker 1: you look at it if it's you know, how consistent,

1038
00:56:38,560 --> 00:56:41,560
Speaker 1: you know, how often is that district in that range? Right,

1039
00:56:41,719 --> 00:56:43,719
Speaker 1: is it a district that is fifty four to fifty

1040
00:56:43,760 --> 00:56:45,319
Speaker 1: eight or is it a district that is fifty eight

1041
00:56:45,320 --> 00:56:45,920
Speaker 1: to sixty two?

1042
00:56:46,120 --> 00:56:47,600
Speaker 2: Right for that for that party.

1043
00:56:48,120 --> 00:56:51,359
Speaker 1: So so you generally look at it that way, we're

1044
00:56:51,360 --> 00:56:53,239
Speaker 1: going to have fewer seats than ever, that are going

1045
00:56:53,280 --> 00:56:57,000
Speaker 1: to be in the fifty five and less range, right,

1046
00:56:57,040 --> 00:57:00,320
Speaker 1: that'll be five essentially where the where the largest spread

1047
00:57:00,440 --> 00:57:04,000
Speaker 1: is single digits, not double digits between the most likely

1048
00:57:04,719 --> 00:57:09,000
Speaker 1: two parties split. And under that scenario, it just narrows.

1049
00:57:09,080 --> 00:57:11,839
Speaker 1: It just means, you know, in some ways, we'll have

1050
00:57:11,880 --> 00:57:14,000
Speaker 1: more we'll have as many competitive Senate races as we

1051
00:57:14,040 --> 00:57:16,840
Speaker 1: do house races. You know, I was just thinking about

1052
00:57:16,880 --> 00:57:19,400
Speaker 1: this earlier today. With the state of Iowa. We're going

1053
00:57:19,440 --> 00:57:21,920
Speaker 1: to have a competitive governor's race, a competitive senate race,

1054
00:57:21,960 --> 00:57:24,200
Speaker 1: and we now have two. They have four house seats.

1055
00:57:24,440 --> 00:57:27,360
Speaker 1: Two of them are open. Now one is not competitive

1056
00:57:27,360 --> 00:57:29,240
Speaker 1: for both parties. That one open seat will be a

1057
00:57:29,240 --> 00:57:32,480
Speaker 1: really competitive Republican primary. That's in the fourth. Then you'll

1058
00:57:32,520 --> 00:57:35,560
Speaker 1: have the open seat of Ashley Henson seat and that'll

1059
00:57:35,560 --> 00:57:38,320
Speaker 1: be very competitive because it's a pretty fifty to fifty district.

1060
00:57:39,360 --> 00:57:42,920
Speaker 1: Maryann Miller Meeks has been She's Landside Meeks, right, she

1061
00:57:43,000 --> 00:57:44,840
Speaker 1: never wins by more than a point or two. That

1062
00:57:44,920 --> 00:57:48,880
Speaker 1: will be extraordinarily competitive, by the way iowas a commission state.

1063
00:57:49,320 --> 00:57:51,200
Speaker 1: And then the third district, this is Des Moines. The

1064
00:57:51,200 --> 00:57:54,000
Speaker 1: metro area is always a fifty to fifty district, Democrats

1065
00:57:54,240 --> 00:57:57,160
Speaker 1: usually perform best in midterms, and Republicans in that district

1066
00:57:57,240 --> 00:58:01,520
Speaker 1: usually performed best in presidentials. So if there are only

1067
00:58:01,600 --> 00:58:08,360
Speaker 1: say fifteen swing districts up for grabs after all of

1068
00:58:08,400 --> 00:58:11,200
Speaker 1: this tit for tat reapportionment, IOA may have twenty percent

1069
00:58:11,200 --> 00:58:14,480
Speaker 1: of those competitive races, right, three of the five, three

1070
00:58:14,480 --> 00:58:15,080
Speaker 1: of the fifteen.

1071
00:58:16,000 --> 00:58:16,760
Speaker 2: But I digress.

1072
00:58:16,840 --> 00:58:19,160
Speaker 1: The point is is that, look, I think this goes

1073
00:58:19,200 --> 00:58:22,080
Speaker 1: back to an earlier answer I gave. I do think

1074
00:58:22,120 --> 00:58:25,720
Speaker 1: we are somehow taking away the people from what was

1075
00:58:25,760 --> 00:58:27,080
Speaker 1: supposed to be the people's House.

1076
00:58:27,600 --> 00:58:28,760
Speaker 2: And the irony is that.

1077
00:58:28,760 --> 00:58:33,720
Speaker 1: The Senate, which originally was a body that was whose

1078
00:58:33,760 --> 00:58:37,240
Speaker 1: members were elected by state legislatures, well we're now actually

1079
00:58:37,280 --> 00:58:39,680
Speaker 1: flipping it, right. We are now about to have four

1080
00:58:39,800 --> 00:58:41,840
Speaker 1: hundred out of four hundred and thirty five House members

1081
00:58:42,320 --> 00:58:46,920
Speaker 1: essentially be elected by state legislators. What do you think

1082
00:58:46,920 --> 00:58:49,200
Speaker 1: the founders would have said to that? What do we

1083
00:58:49,200 --> 00:58:52,000
Speaker 1: think James Madison and Thomas Jefferson and Alexander Hamilton would

1084
00:58:52,000 --> 00:58:52,440
Speaker 1: have said to that?

1085
00:58:52,560 --> 00:58:54,680
Speaker 2: It didn't make any sense? Right?

1086
00:58:55,080 --> 00:58:58,440
Speaker 1: So that to me is the absurdity of where this

1087
00:58:58,600 --> 00:59:01,800
Speaker 1: is gone, which is we've literally now taken the right.

1088
00:59:02,000 --> 00:59:04,680
Speaker 1: The dumbest idea we had was having state legislatures elect

1089
00:59:04,760 --> 00:59:06,320
Speaker 1: Washington representatives in the first place.

1090
00:59:06,360 --> 00:59:07,320
Speaker 2: I know some there are.

1091
00:59:07,440 --> 00:59:10,280
Speaker 1: I've got some good friends who are in the who

1092
00:59:10,320 --> 00:59:16,760
Speaker 1: are super old school conservative, who would argue for going

1093
00:59:16,840 --> 00:59:21,000
Speaker 1: back to that way of the Senate. Usually these are

1094
00:59:21,120 --> 00:59:22,680
Speaker 1: friends of mine on the right side of the aisle,

1095
00:59:24,240 --> 00:59:27,200
Speaker 1: they have more state legislatures. I understand why they would

1096
00:59:27,240 --> 00:59:31,160
Speaker 1: prefer that, but I don't think it's very representative, and

1097
00:59:31,200 --> 00:59:34,160
Speaker 1: it's certainly not small d democratic. So that's to me,

1098
00:59:34,320 --> 00:59:35,960
Speaker 1: what's why it's so bad?

1099
00:59:36,400 --> 00:59:38,240
Speaker 2: All Right? That was six questions.

1100
00:59:38,440 --> 00:59:45,120
Speaker 1: I hit the half hour mark, and this next question

1101
00:59:46,120 --> 00:59:48,160
Speaker 1: it deserves a longer answer, and I don't.

1102
00:59:47,960 --> 00:59:48,920
Speaker 2: Want to short shrift it.

1103
00:59:49,040 --> 00:59:53,400
Speaker 1: So with that, Danny from Dublin, I promise you I'm

1104
00:59:53,400 --> 00:59:55,400
Speaker 1: going to answer your question on the next episode with

1105
00:59:55,520 --> 00:59:59,439
Speaker 1: the Chuck Podcast, and with that until we upload again

1106
01:00:00,200 --> 01:00:00,800
Speaker 1: during the weekend.