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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named vest vetting Podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we got twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five,

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Speaker 2: forty twenty five fifty.

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Speaker 3: And the kicks block Look college Football World start.

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Speaker 1: Oh, by goodness, it.

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Speaker 4: Stole the football.

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Speaker 3: The lateral na Canny Hide, get you the lad table up,

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Speaker 3: the fail to night. It's not the sage of the

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Speaker 3: game anything. It's a sage a fight. What's off the

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Speaker 3: general nation? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. This is

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Speaker 3: the week twelve college football betting preview. I'm Stucky in

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Speaker 3: with me as always is Colin Wilson. Maybe getting ready

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Speaker 3: for an Arkansas football game this weekend. Maybe not.

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Speaker 5: We left on Sunday with an over undertotal on number

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Speaker 5: of games canceled due to COVID. That number has sailed

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Speaker 5: over like a Mac football game.

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Speaker 6: We'll get to the LSU Arkansas game. It may or

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Speaker 6: may not be played. That might be another one. Apparently

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Speaker 6: Arkansas is going to try to play, but they're very thin.

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Speaker 6: It's going to depend on some tests tomorrow.

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Speaker 3: We have some really good games that are still on

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Speaker 3: the board. That we're going to get to a lot

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Speaker 3: of ranked matchups.

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Speaker 6: We have Bedlam since the UCFS really intriguing game Indiana,

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Speaker 6: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Northwestern really big big ten games that

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Speaker 6: will go a long way in deciding both divisions, and

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Speaker 6: San Diego State Nevada. Those will be the marquee games

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Speaker 6: that will cover dian Diego State Nevada is. Actually it'll

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Speaker 6: probably who goes to the Mountain West Conference title that's

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Speaker 6: on three three thirty on CBS. We'll get to that game.

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Speaker 6: Then we'll get to the best of the rest, and

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Speaker 6: we'll go through a quick rundown of a number of

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Speaker 6: other games from the other conferences, including app State Coastal Carolina.

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Speaker 6: We'll talk some liberty who has a big game this weekend,

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Speaker 6: and then we'll go three and out. We'll do some

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Speaker 6: Friday Night lights, got a bunch of games on Friday,

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Speaker 6: and we'll.

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Speaker 3: Do some prices right for our favorite overdogs the price

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Speaker 3: is wrong, bitch, and.

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Speaker 6: Then our underdog money on parlay and get out of here.

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Speaker 6: But before we get to the marquee games of the week,

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Speaker 6: let's first start with look ahead or look.

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Speaker 7: Away, hangovers, sleepers, and the dreaded sandwich spot. Is it

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Speaker 7: time to look ahead or look away?

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Speaker 3: This is a segment.

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Speaker 6: You know, ultimately, I'll say this every time do a segment.

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Speaker 6: Situational handicapping does.

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Speaker 3: Play a part at least in both college football and

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Speaker 3: our college basketball handicap. And these are college kids. You know,

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Speaker 3: ultimately a play will come down to our number and

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Speaker 3: the discrepancy between the number that's out there. But this

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Speaker 3: is part of the consideration. Sometimes you have a team

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Speaker 3: that might have a let down, might have a team

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Speaker 3: that's looking ahead. Maybe they didn't prepare as well. Maybe

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Speaker 3: they'll pull their starters a little sooner than usual.

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Speaker 6: YadA, YadA, YadA. So the big game next week in

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Speaker 6: week thirteen, you know, we have a couple of big games.

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Speaker 6: You have Notre Dame at UNC. That could be fun.

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Speaker 6: Ioway stayed at Texas, But the big one is the

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Speaker 6: Iron Bowl. So next week Auburn will go to Alabama.

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Speaker 6: Auburn is now ranked at four and two, even though

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Speaker 6: they really could have been zero to five to start

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Speaker 6: the year, but they did look really impressive in their

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Speaker 6: last outing against LSU. Alabama has been rolling. They will

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Speaker 6: now get Kentucky at home. Meanwhile, Auburn will host Tennessee

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Speaker 6: at bet MGM. Right now, Alabama is laying thirty their

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Speaker 6: minus thirty at home over under fifty seven and a half,

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Speaker 6: and Auburn is an eleven point favorite at home against Tennessee.

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Speaker 3: I don't know, necessarily know if there are big look aheads.

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Speaker 6: I think, I mean maybe for a game like this,

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Speaker 6: but in such a shortened season where you know games

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Speaker 6: are so precious, maybe it's not as big of a consideration.

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Speaker 6: I will say quickly, I do like Tennessee. I played

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Speaker 6: them at eleven. I think you did as well. I

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Speaker 6: make it under ten. I think that the love for

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Speaker 6: Auburn is just for one game. Everyone already forgot. You know,

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Speaker 6: It's all like Elsie's been impressive.

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Speaker 5: Bow Paine season is full of pack.

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Speaker 6: Everyone already forgot that Auburn could have been zero and

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Speaker 6: five and was really struggling through those first five games.

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Speaker 6: The other side of the ball, look, Kentucky's defense is

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Speaker 6: good the battle. No one's really going to slow down

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Speaker 6: this Alabama offense. But Kentucky is a snail.

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Speaker 3: They'll run it.

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Speaker 6: Bama tends to sit on big league and games like this,

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Speaker 6: so I will be looking. I'm on Tennessee and I'll

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Speaker 6: be looking for Kentucky maybe second half. If Bama's up

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Speaker 6: big in the first half, I think Kentucky can maybe

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Speaker 6: put a driver or two together just eating clock, running

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Speaker 6: it against backups, and BAMA will sit on it. So

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Speaker 6: those are my two looks there, So I guess I'm

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Speaker 6: looking to fade both Alabama and Auburn. What are your

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Speaker 6: thoughts on either of those games?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, well, we don't have ten horn weekends, so we

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Speaker 5: don't have you know, the FCS's of the world. The

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Speaker 5: Western Carolina is to sit here and gauge a sixty

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Speaker 5: points spread before the iron bolt.

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Speaker 8: You all don't remember the Georgia Southern game, do you?

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Speaker 8: I don't think we had a guy on that field

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Speaker 8: that didn't play in the NFL. And about four or

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Speaker 8: five of them were first round draft picks and they

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Speaker 8: run through our through a ten horn man and we

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Speaker 8: could not stop them, could not stop them.

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Speaker 5: And yeah, you're right, you and I are both on

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Speaker 5: Tennessee and it's just it's a classic Bilo cell high

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Speaker 5: spot because Tennessee has a one or covered four in

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Speaker 5: a row. Auburn's one two and covered two in a row.

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Speaker 5: You know that LSU team I haven't seen a more disconnected,

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Speaker 5: you know team as far as LS was concerned in

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Speaker 5: that game against Auburn and offensively, just going back to

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Speaker 5: the prehistoric ages with you know, how successful their offense was.

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Speaker 5: I think the thing to keep in mind with this

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Speaker 5: game is, you know, Malason not commenting on the thirteen

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Speaker 5: players who tested positive for COVID over the last weekend.

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Speaker 5: He said there were no positive tests on Wednesday, so

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Speaker 5: we'll see. We're recording on Thursday night. It's important to

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Speaker 5: know that Friday will be the rapid response test and

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Speaker 5: we'll see how it turns out there. You know, Auburn's

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Speaker 5: defense is just eighty fourth and havoc, so Jared Garantano

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Speaker 5: may have a clean box score. It's really what we

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Speaker 5: need from Tennessee. And if you can get against the defense,

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Speaker 5: it's not taking the ball away or causing chaos, Tennessee

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Speaker 5: can have some success. You know, Tennessee has an advantage

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Speaker 5: in the offensive trench. It should be the difference. They're

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Speaker 5: a rush heavy team and they've covered, you know, in

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Speaker 5: their history. If you're in trends, they've covered for the

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Speaker 5: last five and Jordan Harre and specifically Guarantano, you know

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Speaker 5: went down there and did just find two years ago,

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Speaker 5: so no big deal to him. So yeah, I'm back

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Speaker 5: in Tennessee with you. As far as Kentucky and Alabama concern,

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Speaker 5: you know, cute of music on the under. I really

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Speaker 5: want to take an under in this game.

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Speaker 3: This is bullshit.

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Speaker 5: The totalist spot on I projected at fifty eight. I

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Speaker 5: think the spreadest spot on I projected at Alabama minus thirty.

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Speaker 5: But considering Kentucky is one of the best teams in

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Speaker 5: the nation in limiting explosiveness. There's six against rush explosiveness,

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Speaker 5: eighth against pass explosiveness, and those are really important things

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Speaker 5: against an Alabama team. That doesn't mean they're going to

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Speaker 5: shut them down. It just means Kentucky's been really good

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Speaker 5: at slowing anything deep. You know, Kentucky may have some

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Speaker 5: rushing success in this game. They run sixty four percent

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Speaker 5: of the time, and so I think this has a

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Speaker 5: chance to go under simply because of the pace of play.

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Speaker 5: I'm not sure what Alabama wants to, you know, expose

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Speaker 5: is for their game with Auburn next week, but I

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Speaker 5: just don't think there's going to be a whole lot

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Speaker 5: of explosive plays and Kentucky's fifth and special teams. I

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Speaker 5: mean that's something that gets overlooked here.

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Speaker 6: Really good punter, so when they are punting, it'll hit

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Speaker 6: in Alabama, make them go a couple more yards, can't hurt.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, does a distance matter? Alamma team that's scooping up

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Speaker 5: over sixty percent of available yards, we'll see.

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Speaker 3: I like the under in this game.

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Speaker 5: I'm willing to wait it out to see if we

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Speaker 5: can get up in the in the sixty range, A

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Speaker 5: key number of sixty. But that's the look for me here.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, Kentucky's a snail and they're gonna just run at

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Speaker 6: a ton I assume. I can't imagine they have any

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Speaker 6: success for the air.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 6: Tennessee is really intriguing to me because there's been a

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Speaker 6: lot of things that I've been incorrect about this year,

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Speaker 6: but one of them is Tennessee's offensive line.

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Speaker 3: I mean, they're so talented.

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Speaker 6: I thought they would be dominant, like one of the

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Speaker 6: best office lines in the country, and their advanced metrics

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Speaker 6: aren't there. There's still huge offensive line that should dominate

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Speaker 6: this line of scrimmage. Maybe they've built some continuity and

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Speaker 6: figured some things out with no game last week, so

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Speaker 6: They've had two weeks to prepare and figure some things

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Speaker 6: out here, So yeah, I like Auburn catching double digits here.

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Speaker 6: All right, let's move on to our marquee games of

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Speaker 6: the weekend.

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Speaker 7: It's another fab you this weekend of college football. Let's

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Speaker 7: check out the marquee matchups we'll all end up betting

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Speaker 7: for week twelve.

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Speaker 6: All right, we have five marquee games this weekend that

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Speaker 6: we're going to cover in depth. We will go in

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Speaker 6: chronological order, So let's start at noon Eastern with Indiana

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Speaker 6: at Ohio State at MGM. Ohio State is a twenty

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Speaker 6: and a half point favorite over under sixty six and

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Speaker 6: a half. Here's what's really interesting to be well. First

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Speaker 6: of all, Ohio State is dominated dominated this matchup reviewers.

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Speaker 6: They've won twenty four straight. They think they tied in

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Speaker 6: nineteen ninety. The last time Indiana one it was October

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Speaker 6: nineteen eighty eight. The song at the top of the

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Speaker 6: charts at the time.

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Speaker 3: Was don't worry, be Happy, Be Happy. That's how long

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Speaker 3: ago it was. But this is a top ten matchup.

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Speaker 3: Ohio State is off of a buy.

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Speaker 6: They did have their game at Maryland cancel because of

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Speaker 6: Maryland COVID issues. Indiana is four and oh, but their

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Speaker 6: four wins came against teams that have three total wins,

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Speaker 6: and it's been a number of teams that it's just

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Speaker 6: they've been extremely disappointing. Henn State, while that win looks

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Speaker 6: a lot worse than it did at the time, Michigan

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Speaker 6: and we've seen what Michigan looks like, Michigan State and Rutgers.

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Speaker 6: So you know, the it is four and oh, they

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Speaker 6: are in the top ten, but the wins haven't been great.

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Speaker 3: You know has been great. It's justin fields.

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Speaker 6: He is there's eleven touchdowns and eleven incompletions, no interceptions,

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Speaker 6: eighty seven percent completion percentage. When kept cleaning the pocket,

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Speaker 6: he's sixty two to sixty nine for seven hundred and

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Speaker 6: seventy three yards, nine touchdowns, no picks, ninety six percent

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Speaker 6: of justic completion percentage. I don't think this Indiana defense

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Speaker 6: is slowing a lot of I don't think any really

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Speaker 6: anybody who's slowing this Ohio State defense down. Especially you know,

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Speaker 6: Garrett Wilson's able to play any receivers, but he basically

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Speaker 6: need three elite corners to shut them down. I mean,

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Speaker 6: just fields is playing at another level. I think that

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Speaker 6: is gonna get their points. I don't think anyone would

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Speaker 6: really argue that. So the handicap here, which I think

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Speaker 6: is going to decide that total and whether or not

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Speaker 6: Indiana can cover, is what can Penix do? Can you

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Speaker 6: take advantage of this Ohio State second? Because I don't

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Speaker 6: think Indiana is gonna be able to run it the

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Speaker 6: Ohio State front. You have TOGII and Haskell Garrett. They've

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Speaker 6: been dominating the line of scrimmage and Indiana has not

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Speaker 6: been great in run blocking. So I don't think they're

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Speaker 6: gonna get much on the ground. Where they could potentially

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Speaker 6: take advantage of Ohio State is in the secondary, and

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Speaker 6: Indiana has talented quarterback in Penix, they have talented receivers

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Speaker 6: f I Fogel, Fillure in that tight end, Payton Hendershot

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Speaker 6: And is this Ohio State defense vulnerable?

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Speaker 3: Is the question. They lost three pros from the second

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Speaker 3: lost their entire secondary. I mean you lost two first

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Speaker 3: round corners and you lost to Jordan Fuller, your single

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Speaker 3: high safety. This is gonna come down to Sean Wade,

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Speaker 3: who is moving to a new position. He was playing slot,

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Speaker 3: now he's on the outside seven banks. You have the

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Speaker 3: Cam Brown injury, you up and you have some up

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Speaker 3: and down play at safety. Marcus Hooker has not been

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Speaker 3: great trying to fulfill that. Jordan Fuller Roll and Jordan

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Speaker 3: full never missed a tackle and Marcus Hooker's missing a bunch.

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Speaker 3: Their third corner spot Tyree Johnson's been a little shaky

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Speaker 3: at times. So you know there were some breakdowns against

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Speaker 3: Penn stateon and Rutgers. Josh Proctor Benny thought he was

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Speaker 3: gonna be that singleized safety. He's kind of like the

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Speaker 3: Swiss Army knife who comes in the box and.

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Speaker 6: Does a lot of things for them. But this is

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Speaker 6: a defense that Jeff Haffley is now BC came in.

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Speaker 6: He's a Pete Carroll disciple indirectly worked for the forty

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Speaker 6: nine Ers runs a single high safety Cover three a lot,

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Speaker 6: also some Cover one if you're not familiar with that scheme.

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Speaker 6: The key is to take away the run games. Sometimes

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Speaker 6: you're gonna have eight men in the box and you're

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Speaker 6: gonna have a singleized safety to take away explosive plays.

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Speaker 3: And were well bad.

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Speaker 6: Ohio State wasn't given up exposive plays a couple of

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Speaker 6: years ago and then you need talented corners and the

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Speaker 6: outside they're mainly on islands. Whether it's Cover three or

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Speaker 6: Cover one, does Ohio State have those state those corners

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Speaker 6: or the singleized safety, I don't really know.

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Speaker 3: It's definitely a vulnerable area.

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Speaker 6: We saw this same thing back in twenty seventeen when

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Speaker 6: Indiana played.

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Speaker 3: Ohio State and Ohio State.

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Speaker 6: Was dealing with the loss of Marshawn Latimore, Garan Conley,

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Speaker 6: Malee Cooker again, three defensive backs that played in the NFL,

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Speaker 6: and they shredded, absolutely shredded in Indiana shredded in that game.

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Speaker 6: Even though Ohio State had a bunch of pros future pros,

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Speaker 6: they were just very young and inexperienced. So ken ken

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Speaker 6: Indiana take advantage, you know, in the intermediate routes, which

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Speaker 6: is how you attack this cover three Cover one defensive

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Speaker 6: and then Ohiostate hasn't been playing up a lot of press.

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Speaker 6: I don't necessarily think they trust their corners yet, so

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Speaker 6: can Indiana take advantage. In order to do so, I

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Speaker 6: think they will need to have a clean pocket for Pedix,

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Speaker 6: and that could be an issue. Ohio State did lose

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Speaker 6: Chase Young, but they're still getting some pressure and if

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Speaker 6: you get pressure on Penicks, he's seventy first in adjust

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Speaker 6: the completion pressure percentage went under pressure one touchdown, three picks,

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Speaker 6: forty six quarterback rating. In contrast, fields leads the NCAA

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Speaker 6: at one hundred and forty when under pressure, almost one

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Speaker 6: hundred points higher. Indiana's outside the top one hundred and

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Speaker 6: pass blocking efficiency, So Ken Pennix get enough time to

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Speaker 6: take advantage of some potential weaknesses in the Ohio State secondary.

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Speaker 6: I think that's where the handicap comes down to. Indiana

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Speaker 6: certainly has the talent on the outside, and I think

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Speaker 6: there are there are some holes in this Ohio State secondary,

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Speaker 6: as you would expect early on after all the talent

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Speaker 6: they left. So that's kind of how I'm looking at

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Speaker 6: this game, what say you?

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Speaker 8: Yeah?

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Speaker 5: And the thing is, the point spread is exactly where

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Speaker 5: we put it out in twenty and a half. So

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Speaker 5: it's hard to make a decision, you know. If it

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Speaker 5: goes down a little bit than we would obviously favor

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Speaker 5: Ohio stateium goes up little bit, we would obviously maybe

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Speaker 5: uh favor Indiana. But you're right, the Buckeye secondary is

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Speaker 5: the handicap in this game. Primarily their corners need to

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Speaker 5: be under spot like is they're the ones that have

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Speaker 5: had the most problems. Between Sean Wade Marcus Williamson's seven banks,

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Speaker 5: they have just two pass breakups on the season and

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Speaker 5: they've been targeted twenty eight times. To combat that, though,

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Speaker 5: I went a little bit deeper and took a look

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Speaker 5: at Michael Penick Junior's heat map of like where he's

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Speaker 5: throwing and where he's the most successful.

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Speaker 3: Part of that is because they've been playing really off.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, and coming into the year, their new de coordinators

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Speaker 6: that we're going to play press, but they've been playing

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Speaker 6: really off, so you can throw to them and they're

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Speaker 6: not there to break up these passes again.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, And I think the thing is is if if

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Speaker 5: Michael Penix Junior wants to attack the corners and he

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Speaker 5: wants to throw out to the sideline, that's just not

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Speaker 5: been his bread and butter. At least so far this year.

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Speaker 5: His most success has come twenty yards down the field

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Speaker 5: in between the hashes. So I'm not sure attacking corners

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Speaker 5: is something that he's completely, you know, completely comfortable with doing,

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Speaker 5: or at least he hasn't done it yet. So we'll

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Speaker 5: see how that plays out, But that's really the handicap here.

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Speaker 5: Ryan Day came out on Monday and gave his press

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Speaker 5: conference and said, we've got to produce some pressure period.

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Speaker 5: Both defensive ends, Tyreek Smith, John and Cooper. They have

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Speaker 5: seven hurries a piece. If you look at Indiana, I

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Speaker 5: mean it's I mean Michael Pittis junior is I mean,

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Speaker 5: he's been able to do whatever he wants. Penn State

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Speaker 5: producers one quarterback hurry. Michigan had zero sacks. I think

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Speaker 5: it's just going to be a different ballgame this week

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Speaker 5: with Ohio State's pressure. I think there's a focus on it.

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Speaker 5: I think they're going to send blitzes when they can,

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Speaker 5: but I think the front four is going to be

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Speaker 5: able to get him rattled just a little bit because

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Speaker 5: he obviously has not been all season long with the

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Speaker 5: schedule that they have, and the schedule is what I

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Speaker 5: don't know how I could back Indiana in this game.

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Speaker 5: Indiana's beaten Penn State, Rutgers, Michigan State, and Michigan. If

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Speaker 5: you look at those four teams and you take out

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Speaker 5: the times that those four teams have played each other,

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Speaker 5: the record on the season for those four teams is

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Speaker 5: one in thirteen. So Indiana has beat a collective group

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Speaker 5: of four teams that is one thirteen. How much do

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Speaker 5: I trust the Hoosier stats right when they rank one

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Speaker 5: hundred and tenth and rushing success rate on offense? How

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Speaker 5: much I mean? Are they really one hundred and ten

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Speaker 5: or are they more like last against against that group?

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Speaker 5: The Hoosiers are top ten and defensive havoc? How much

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Speaker 5: do I put stock into that, you know, from a

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Speaker 5: tackles for loss and a pass breakup perspective considering who

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Speaker 5: they've gone up against. So now we're stepping up to

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Speaker 5: heavyweight class here, you move a cruiser weight up to

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Speaker 5: heavyweight class, and that really gives me a little bit

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Speaker 5: of pause. In backing Indiana, I completely agree with you.

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Speaker 5: I don't see how Ohio State does not get their points.

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Speaker 5: They're number one in the country an offensive success rate.

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Speaker 5: I still have a little bit of heartburn about Master

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Speaker 5: t and Trey Sermon their breakaway speed and their explosiveness

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Speaker 5: or but you know, Indiana's sixty seventh in defending explosive runs.

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Speaker 5: So it's not like it's just not going to get

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Speaker 5: exposed here in this game that Ohio State may have

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Speaker 5: breakaway speed issues. As far as the ground game is concerned,

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Speaker 5: I think the way to beat Ohio State is Nebraska

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Speaker 5: put up two hundred yards and they pushed them around

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Speaker 5: in the trench and that was really unexpected. You can

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Speaker 5: call it the first game of the season. You can

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Speaker 5: call it, you know, breaking in new players on defensive line.

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Speaker 5: Nebraska put up tw hundred yards and control the trench. Indiana,

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Speaker 5: like I said, one hundred and tenth and rushing success

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Speaker 5: right their eightieth in line yards. They can't replicate what

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Speaker 5: Nebraska did, so instead of teetering, I mean, I think

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Speaker 5: you should take a side on Ohio State, but I

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Speaker 5: think the better bet really is taking Ohio State first

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Speaker 5: half and taking their team total over. I can't see

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Speaker 5: any way this Indiana defense stops Ohio State from getting theirs.

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Speaker 5: It's a team that scored fifty one last year in Bloomington,

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Speaker 5: so I'm not sure what's going to change here.

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Speaker 3: I don't hate their team total overcall.

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Speaker 6: And yeah, it's it's difficult for me to really get

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Speaker 6: a read on Indiana because who they played, and they've

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Speaker 6: had they had some troubling underlying metrics even though they

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Speaker 6: played played a really easy schedule. But on the flip side,

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Speaker 6: it's really difficult for me. I know this o State

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Speaker 6: offense is great, but it's really difficult for me to

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00:18:59,080 --> 00:19:01,119
Speaker 6: get a read on the Ohia State defense, which I

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Speaker 6: did have questions about after the exodus of NFL talent.

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Speaker 3: They've played teams who look Sean Clifford he might get

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Speaker 3: bench's and he had some success.

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Speaker 6: Then they played Nebraska, who just changed their quarterback and

383
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Speaker 6: they were flip flopping between Adrian and MARTINEZU. McAffrey. Another

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Speaker 6: quarterback they faced was no evenrable. I mean, one of

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Speaker 6: the worst offenses in college football. There are some difficult

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Speaker 6: things here because of the level of competition, but I agree,

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Speaker 6: I think Ohio State should get theirs with these Justin

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Speaker 6: fields is playing at an amazing level. All right, let's

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Speaker 6: move on here to our second marquee game of the weekend,

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Speaker 6: and let's go to the AAC.

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Speaker 3: And talk a little.

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Speaker 6: Since he uc F at bet MGM right now, I know,

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Speaker 6: since he's been on the rise a week, since he's

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Speaker 6: a six and a half point favorite over under sixty

395
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Speaker 6: three and a half.

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Speaker 3: Since he's ranked seventh in college football, and they are

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Speaker 3: in the conversation for a college football playoff birth. This

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Speaker 3: game will go a lot.

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Speaker 6: They lose it, they're done, and depending on how they

400
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Speaker 6: win it, they could move up and it'll go a

401
00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:10,680
Speaker 6: long way in deciding their college football playoff fate. Really

402
00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:14,600
Speaker 6: intriguing in the Cincinnati's defense is elite. The Blackcats three

403
00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:18,199
Speaker 6: three to five defense. Marcus Freeman genius. I mean they

404
00:20:18,280 --> 00:20:22,639
Speaker 6: shut down these spread offenses for fun. Deep defensive line

405
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Speaker 6: led by Sanders and Ponder on the edges. But he

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Speaker 6: Ponder was on crutches last week. He's one of the

407
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Speaker 6: best defensive ends in all of college football PFF. Actually,

408
00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:34,280
Speaker 6: as Sanders and Ponder has rated one and two as

409
00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:37,080
Speaker 6: edge defenders this year. They just eat up blocks, they

410
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Speaker 6: can get pressure for their linebackers, really good linebacking group

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Speaker 6: led by Jirel White. Then they have a great corner

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Speaker 6: do other secondaries the streng great corner do Kobe Bryant,

413
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Speaker 6: Namad Gardner and their safeties maybe one of the best

414
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Speaker 6: safety groups in the country.

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Speaker 3: And James Wiggins is just a stud back. There.

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Speaker 6: Just athletic defense, well disciplined, well coached, well schooled, great

417
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Speaker 6: tacklers with prop potential at every level.

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Speaker 3: It's a legit defense. Number three scoring defense versus the

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Speaker 3: number one scoring offense in UCF, who's averaging six hundred

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Speaker 3: and nineteen total yards. The FBS record, by the way,

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Speaker 3: is six hundred and twenty four sept by nineteen eighty nine.

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Speaker 6: Houston Cougars go Kug's this game. Look, it's just a

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Speaker 6: complete contrast and everything. So what's gonna win out explosive place?

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Speaker 6: Since he allows er point eight plays of thirty more yards,

425
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Speaker 6: that's second the nation. Against SMU's spread attack air raid.

426
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Speaker 6: They held them to zero. SMU averages like three and

427
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Speaker 6: a half or four per game, and they held sm

428
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Speaker 6: to one touchdown and thirty plays in the red zone.

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Speaker 6: That's a huge storyline here because since he's number four

430
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Speaker 6: in red zone defense UCF number fifty eight, and last

431
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Speaker 6: year they only have one touchdown in six trips inside

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Speaker 6: the red zone.

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Speaker 3: Because so can they finish drives?

434
00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:52,600
Speaker 6: Now, when I look at this UCF offense, number one,

435
00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:55,399
Speaker 6: I mean, it's so fast. It's just as fast as

436
00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:57,520
Speaker 6: you're going to see. They averaged eighty six and a

437
00:21:57,560 --> 00:21:59,320
Speaker 6: half plays per game. That's the most in the nation.

438
00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:02,200
Speaker 6: Joe and Gabriel is playing at a really high Levely

439
00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:06,240
Speaker 6: has two good backs two dynamic receivers Marlon Williams sixty

440
00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:08,200
Speaker 6: three catches for nine hundred and forty two yards and

441
00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:09,240
Speaker 6: eight touchdowns already.

442
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:13,480
Speaker 3: I mean, that's just silly. And they could get their

443
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:16,159
Speaker 3: deep threat Trey Nixon back, which is huge. This is

444
00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:17,560
Speaker 3: how you have to beat since you have to hit,

445
00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:20,520
Speaker 3: and they just Jill Gabriel missed them last last year,

446
00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:22,960
Speaker 3: missed overthrew some deep balls. But trede Ex is their

447
00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:25,040
Speaker 3: best deep threat. He hasn't played since the first half

448
00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:27,040
Speaker 3: at Georgia Tech, but he's been practicing. He had two

449
00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:29,720
Speaker 3: touchdowns in the first half against Georgia Tech then got hurt.

450
00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:32,720
Speaker 3: You see if penalties have been an issue, but that's

451
00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:34,080
Speaker 3: you can't look at raw penalties.

452
00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:36,639
Speaker 6: They play so many plays that their penalty numbers are

453
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:38,199
Speaker 6: always going to be a little bit higher. But they

454
00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:40,520
Speaker 6: had twenty false start penalties in the first three games,

455
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:43,399
Speaker 6: ten in one game. Uh, They've only had three in

456
00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:45,000
Speaker 6: the past three games, so they've cleaned up some of

457
00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:48,960
Speaker 6: those issues. They won't be surprised by the Sincy defense. Look,

458
00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:51,560
Speaker 6: it's a three to three five that since he unveiled

459
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:55,119
Speaker 6: for UCF last last year. They never played it before,

460
00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:57,399
Speaker 6: so you s have to not prepare for it.

461
00:22:57,520 --> 00:22:58,320
Speaker 3: It was just a shock.

462
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:00,520
Speaker 6: There was a bunch of turnovers, the efficient in the

463
00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:03,520
Speaker 6: red zone, and since he ended their thirty one or

464
00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:08,120
Speaker 6: thirty two game scoring streak of thirty or more points. Look,

465
00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 6: the loss of Ponder, I should say, the potential loss

466
00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:12,120
Speaker 6: of Ponder is gonna be big for since the UCF

467
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:15,399
Speaker 6: going really fast, I think is gonna prevent since he

468
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:17,840
Speaker 6: from rotating a defensive lineman as much as they like,

469
00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:20,000
Speaker 6: which is just a huge part of their defense.

470
00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:21,919
Speaker 3: I think UCF is.

471
00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:25,280
Speaker 6: Gonna be able to get theirs, But so CANSINSI. I mean,

472
00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:27,560
Speaker 6: since he's offense is playing so much better right now,

473
00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:30,400
Speaker 6: Desmond Ritter, he's getting rid of the ball quickly, taking

474
00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:32,439
Speaker 6: two point twenty six seconds to throw the ball. That's

475
00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:35,479
Speaker 6: eighth quickest in college football. Last year was over two

476
00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:37,359
Speaker 6: and a half seconds. He was eighty fourth this year

477
00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:39,040
Speaker 6: when he's thrown the ball under two and a half seconds,

478
00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:42,359
Speaker 6: seventy seven percent completion percentage top twenty nine touchdowns, two picks,

479
00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:46,320
Speaker 6: more five touchdowns, four picks, fifty percent completion percents outside

480
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:49,919
Speaker 6: the top fifty in all those stats. So I did,

481
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:52,160
Speaker 6: since he's playing a lot of conference. He's more decisive

482
00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:55,600
Speaker 6: and UCF is They've had a bunch of opt outs before.

483
00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:56,159
Speaker 3: The season started.

484
00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:58,919
Speaker 6: They now lost four starters on defense got kicked off

485
00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:03,280
Speaker 6: the team. They're young across the board, sophomores and freshmen

486
00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:06,560
Speaker 6: everywhere they leave the nation and takeaways, there should should

487
00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:09,320
Speaker 6: be some regression there. So I don't think since he's

488
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:11,719
Speaker 6: gonna have any problems scoring. They are a little slower,

489
00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:15,600
Speaker 6: but I like this over sixty three. I think UCF

490
00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:17,040
Speaker 6: is gonna be able to score. I think they're gonna

491
00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:18,480
Speaker 6: be able to get to twenty seven thirty. They're just

492
00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:20,720
Speaker 6: playing so fast. I think they're gonna hit some of

493
00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:23,040
Speaker 6: these big passes. I know how elite since he's d's been,

494
00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:25,960
Speaker 6: I know they've just been shutting down every spread offense.

495
00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:27,800
Speaker 6: But if you if they do do that again and

496
00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:30,680
Speaker 6: they hold UCF to like twenty or twenty four, which

497
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:33,800
Speaker 6: is would be really good. Only two teams have helped

498
00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:37,480
Speaker 6: UCF under thirty in the past forty five games, and

499
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:39,280
Speaker 6: I think US have scored like twenty four and twenty

500
00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:42,280
Speaker 6: seven in those games. That means since he's I think

501
00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:44,880
Speaker 6: since he will easily get to thirty. And we've seen

502
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:47,879
Speaker 6: since he wants style points, since he if they're up

503
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:50,520
Speaker 6: fourteen with a minute to go, they're gonna score again.

504
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:52,560
Speaker 6: And if they're up twenty one with thirty seconds, they

505
00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:54,879
Speaker 6: might all slide kick it and try to score again.

506
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:56,760
Speaker 3: So you know that they're gonna try to run it up.

507
00:24:56,760 --> 00:24:58,480
Speaker 3: They need all the points they can get. So I

508
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:00,720
Speaker 3: like this over. I think it turns out to a shootout,

509
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:03,280
Speaker 3: and or since he blowout, UCF gets.

510
00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:05,040
Speaker 6: The twenty twenty four, and then since he needs to

511
00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:06,920
Speaker 6: keep adding, they're not going to slow down, and you know,

512
00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:08,680
Speaker 6: CF is just gonna keep throwing fast the whole game.

513
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:11,360
Speaker 3: Thoughts, it was a lot.

514
00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:14,640
Speaker 5: Let me just say that, you know, before we dive

515
00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:17,680
Speaker 5: into this game, I went into bet Labs and and

516
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 5: you know, I've had such a problem with unders this season,

517
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:23,359
Speaker 5: and I'm getting ripped for taking unders, and you know,

518
00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:27,320
Speaker 5: I it has guys, it's all mathematical projection, and and

519
00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:29,480
Speaker 5: so I started to wonder, like, with all these unders

520
00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:32,360
Speaker 5: that I've been losing this year, is there a particular

521
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 5: conference with a particular reason why overs are clipping so much?

522
00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:39,320
Speaker 5: And I what I was able to find out is

523
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:43,680
Speaker 5: that the aac ACC and MAC are clipping around seventy

524
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:47,560
Speaker 5: five percent overs. It's insane, and that falls in line

525
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:49,560
Speaker 5: here with this game. It's I wouldn't take an under

526
00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:51,879
Speaker 5: in those three conferences for anything, you know. I know

527
00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:54,960
Speaker 5: how oddsmakers set over unders. They have they have a

528
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:57,399
Speaker 5: team total, and they adjusted based on what happened in

529
00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:00,760
Speaker 5: the game. But I'm telling you that they can't keep

530
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:02,840
Speaker 5: up with what's going on in those three conferences because

531
00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:05,520
Speaker 5: overs are just going at an unbelievable rate. So that

532
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:08,320
Speaker 5: being said, getting into this game, the difference has been

533
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:11,159
Speaker 5: and this podcast has been pro Desmond Ridder since the

534
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:13,560
Speaker 5: beginning of the season because used to be we lost

535
00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:15,840
Speaker 5: money all the time on Desmond Ridder. He would get pulled,

536
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:18,280
Speaker 5: or he'd have interceptions. He'd cost us a bunch of tickets.

537
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:22,000
Speaker 5: Now he's at total twenty three total touchdowns, only six

538
00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:24,040
Speaker 5: I in t's on the air, and he's contributed five

539
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:28,399
Speaker 5: hundred rushing yards his explosiveness. He is playing like he

540
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:31,159
Speaker 5: deserves to be at least mentioned for Heisman, and I

541
00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:34,359
Speaker 5: think this team deserves talk of being in the College

542
00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:36,840
Speaker 5: Football Playoff if we do not pull a bunch of

543
00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:39,760
Speaker 5: undefeated teams from each of the Power five conferences. It's

544
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 5: not just getting yourself into position. Yes, the pace is

545
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:45,120
Speaker 5: going to be furious, Central Florida second in the nation,

546
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:47,880
Speaker 5: and seconds per play, that's the way Josh Hypel wants

547
00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:50,720
Speaker 5: to run. I think there's things that you need to

548
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:53,000
Speaker 5: look at the reason why I love the over in

549
00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:56,359
Speaker 5: this game is it's just not pace, it's explosiveness and

550
00:26:56,480 --> 00:27:00,440
Speaker 5: defending explosiveness, which is a real problem for Since Florida,

551
00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:03,520
Speaker 5: especially defending the pass. And so each one of these

552
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:07,440
Speaker 5: has explosive offenses, especially through the air. Even two Lane

553
00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:10,920
Speaker 5: against this Central Florida team, two Lane had eight passes

554
00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:13,720
Speaker 5: over fifteen plus yards. So if that's what two Lane's

555
00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 5: offense is doing against the Central Florida defense, I can't

556
00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:19,440
Speaker 5: imagine what Cincinnati how many passes they're going to have

557
00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 5: or how many explosive runs are going to have, you know. So,

558
00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:24,760
Speaker 5: like I said, Cincinnati's known for the defense and their coverage,

559
00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:28,000
Speaker 5: but really their explosiveness on offense is really what's going

560
00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 5: to shine here. And I think one area that's not

561
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:33,960
Speaker 5: really being handicapped here is second level yards. Second level

562
00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:36,240
Speaker 5: yards is something we really use an NFL from football

563
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:39,119
Speaker 5: outsiders to look at, you know, breakaway speed and what

564
00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:41,320
Speaker 5: are you doing once Russias get, you know, five yards

565
00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:44,760
Speaker 5: down the field, standard downs, explosiveness, and second level yards.

566
00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:47,439
Speaker 5: Cincinnati's top ten in the nation. So if they can

567
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:49,560
Speaker 5: get you in an open field, forget it, They're gone.

568
00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:53,680
Speaker 5: Cincinnati is seventh in offensive finishing drives. Central Florida's eighty

569
00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:57,880
Speaker 5: ninth in defense in finishing drives. That is huge Cincinnati.

570
00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:01,000
Speaker 5: If you want a stat to tell your buddies at

571
00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:03,600
Speaker 5: the water cooler, if you want something to tell them,

572
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:05,480
Speaker 5: and they'll be like, holy shit, I got to take

573
00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:08,560
Speaker 5: an over here. Here's the stat. Central Florida is one

574
00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:11,600
Speaker 5: hundred and sixth in the nation and TD scoring percentage

575
00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:15,560
Speaker 5: on their defense. Opponents have had twenty eight red zone

576
00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:19,240
Speaker 5: trips against Central Florida. Twenty four of those twenty eight

577
00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:21,720
Speaker 5: have ended in a score, and twenty one of those

578
00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:24,360
Speaker 5: twenty eight red zone trips have ended in a touchdown.

579
00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:26,879
Speaker 5: They rank one hundred and six and TD scoring position

580
00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:29,359
Speaker 5: in the red zone. Teams are not just getting to

581
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:31,320
Speaker 5: the red zone. They're putting up seven. They're not putting

582
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:31,960
Speaker 5: up field goals.

583
00:28:32,280 --> 00:28:32,919
Speaker 3: Stuck. You're right.

584
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:34,680
Speaker 5: I think UCF is going to be able to contribute

585
00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:37,040
Speaker 5: to the over especially because of the pace. They're going

586
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:38,200
Speaker 5: to do their part to get to the over.

587
00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:38,440
Speaker 3: Here.

588
00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:41,120
Speaker 5: The point spread wise, you know, if you're in a

589
00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 5: pick a pool, listen. I know that we have a

590
00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:45,480
Speaker 5: power rated at three. But this is one of those things,

591
00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:47,400
Speaker 5: like we said with LSU last year, I don't think

592
00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:49,640
Speaker 5: that we can really put a ceiling on Cincinnati yet,

593
00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:51,840
Speaker 5: especially when they're going for style points when they need

594
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:55,120
Speaker 5: the College ball Playoff. This is the last brand name

595
00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:58,640
Speaker 5: that they get on their schedule. Central Florida to the committee,

596
00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 5: is a brand name, is a team that's wanted to

597
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:03,400
Speaker 5: be in the College football Playoff for years. This is

598
00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:06,600
Speaker 5: Cincinnati's last chance put a memory or put something for

599
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:09,440
Speaker 5: them to talk about in the room. So I expect

600
00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:11,760
Speaker 5: a ton of points from Cincinnati here, and I think

601
00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 5: souch Be Florida can help contribute.

602
00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:15,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, the unfortunate thing here.

603
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:18,080
Speaker 6: If you want to the back UCF, maybe you do

604
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:20,040
Speaker 6: it on the money line if you want to, because

605
00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:21,720
Speaker 6: there is value in the spread. But if they're up,

606
00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:25,240
Speaker 6: if since he's up three late, you normally be covering,

607
00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:26,840
Speaker 6: like with two minutes to go, and they might just

608
00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:28,840
Speaker 6: try to run. No, they're gonna go to try to

609
00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:31,440
Speaker 6: score and try to win by ten, and then you're

610
00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:33,200
Speaker 6: gonna be sitting there ripping up your ticket.

611
00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:37,560
Speaker 3: Well done there. Let's move on to our third Marquey

612
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:43,560
Speaker 3: game of the weekend, and let's talk a little Wisconsin

613
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:51,600
Speaker 3: Northwestern Cats, Cats and Top twenty matchup. Northwestern is four

614
00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:56,240
Speaker 3: and out, Wisconsin is two and h Wisconsin has looked good.

615
00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:59,120
Speaker 3: They looked really good to start last.

616
00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:01,880
Speaker 6: Year too, against subcar competition. I mean they have wins

617
00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:05,520
Speaker 6: over Michigan dominantly or Michigan, who doesn't looked great, and Illinois,

618
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:09,560
Speaker 6: who also hasn't looked great. But there's some promising underlying metrics,

619
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:10,720
Speaker 6: especially the offensive line.

620
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:12,480
Speaker 3: Offensive line is really.

621
00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:16,320
Speaker 6: Talented pass blocking, you know, Graham Marx. The running backs

622
00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:18,920
Speaker 6: aren't that great. This isn't your typical Wisconsin team. The

623
00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:22,200
Speaker 6: Northwestern What a turnaround for Pat Fitzgerald. We know that

624
00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:27,360
Speaker 6: Wisconsin's a snail. They are, but they are throwing a

625
00:30:27,400 --> 00:30:32,640
Speaker 6: little bit more. But they are averaging forty one let's say,

626
00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:35,000
Speaker 6: ten seconds or forty two minutes, just a forty two

627
00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:38,640
Speaker 6: minutes per game average time possession insane. You know, you

628
00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:40,240
Speaker 6: can look at a lot of under my metros. Number

629
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:42,960
Speaker 6: one un defense number one scoring defense. I mean, they've

630
00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:45,560
Speaker 6: played two bad teams. This is just like Wisconsin earlier

631
00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:46,040
Speaker 6: last year.

632
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 3: But it looks like they have more competent quarterback whenever

633
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:53,000
Speaker 3: they played Northwestern, though, they just don't score. They can't

634
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:54,760
Speaker 3: run the ball, even tho they had Jonathan Taylor, they

635
00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:59,480
Speaker 3: had better backs, but Northwestern gets no pressure. Defensive line

636
00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:00,560
Speaker 3: really stout.

637
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:02,880
Speaker 6: I don't think Wisconsin is gonna be able to run

638
00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:05,440
Speaker 6: much here, but Northwestern gets no pressure.

639
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:08,400
Speaker 3: Ken Wisconsin throw the ball. That's a primary question out here.

640
00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:14,360
Speaker 3: And then look Pat Fitzgerald, his team's just always overperform

641
00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:16,840
Speaker 3: as an underdog. Part of that is their games usually

642
00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:19,040
Speaker 3: are just ugly and slow.

643
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 6: But if Fitzgerald's a dog fifty four forty one and

644
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:26,160
Speaker 6: one against the spread about fifty seven percent, seven catching

645
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:28,080
Speaker 6: seven or more thirty four to twenty five and one

646
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:31,120
Speaker 6: against the spread fifty seven point six percent, He's won

647
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:34,440
Speaker 6: a bunch of games. Is double digit dogs outright? What

648
00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:38,440
Speaker 6: do you see here in Wisconsin Northwestern? A surprising Top

649
00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:41,520
Speaker 6: twenty battle with a huge turnaround for Northwestern by the way,

650
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:44,800
Speaker 6: the quarterbacks can better Ramsey, but the offense still.

651
00:31:46,240 --> 00:31:47,280
Speaker 3: Underlying metrics ugly.

652
00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:49,800
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, it's pretty gross for Peyton Ramsey. I mean,

653
00:31:49,840 --> 00:31:52,240
Speaker 5: he is the UH. He is the lifeline that the

654
00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:56,680
Speaker 5: offense needed. Northwestern's eighteenth UH in passing success, right, that's

655
00:31:56,680 --> 00:32:00,280
Speaker 5: all because of Peyton Ramsey. But everything else side the

656
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:03,960
Speaker 5: top one hundred and explosiveness, brushing success rate, line, yard

657
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:06,120
Speaker 5: stuff rate. I could go on and on. The offense

658
00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:09,240
Speaker 5: is not really excelling in anything, but they are top

659
00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:11,640
Speaker 5: twenty in finishing drive so if they get into scoring position,

660
00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:13,880
Speaker 5: they've been doing a very good job at putting points

661
00:32:13,960 --> 00:32:15,600
Speaker 5: up on the board. The problem is we have two

662
00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:18,800
Speaker 5: data points on Wisconsin that would be Illinois and Michigan,

663
00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:22,680
Speaker 5: and after those two data points, Wisconsin's number one in

664
00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:25,800
Speaker 5: the nation on defense and finishing drives, so they're not

665
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:29,440
Speaker 5: allowing people to score. Most of this week I spent handicapping.

666
00:32:30,000 --> 00:32:31,560
Speaker 5: There was supposed to be a whole bunch of storms

667
00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:34,400
Speaker 5: in twenty five mile hour wins forecasted, especially for the

668
00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:36,520
Speaker 5: second half of this game, and I thought it was

669
00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:38,560
Speaker 5: going to turn into a one dimensional ground game on

670
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:41,760
Speaker 5: both sides, considering the grass maybe you know knee level

671
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:44,240
Speaker 5: and their storms going on there, But looks like those

672
00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:46,200
Speaker 5: storms cleared out of the Chicago area and they're now

673
00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:49,240
Speaker 5: forecast for Sunday. I think that's the reason why we

674
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:51,080
Speaker 5: saw a total of forty six go down to like

675
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 5: a forty three to forty two and a half. Now

676
00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:54,239
Speaker 5: we're bumped back up to forty four, and I think

677
00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:58,080
Speaker 5: it's all been weather related. Graham Martz has just been ridiculous.

678
00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 5: And it's two games against you know, Illinois Michigan, seventy

679
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:05,960
Speaker 5: four percent completion rate, seven tds, no interceptions, Eleven of

680
00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:10,560
Speaker 5: Graham Mertz's eleven incompletions four were drops. The kid is

681
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:13,600
Speaker 5: just dead accurate. The biggest complaint that we had going

682
00:33:13,680 --> 00:33:17,160
Speaker 5: into the season about Wisconsin was Jonathan Taylor's replacements and

683
00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:19,800
Speaker 5: not having enough explosiveness, and I think you just made

684
00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:21,240
Speaker 5: a mention of that as like, you know, we don't

685
00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:24,040
Speaker 5: know about this offense yet and they ranked outside the

686
00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:26,960
Speaker 5: top one twenty and explosiveness and that's that's an issue.

687
00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 5: But there was a sign of life in this last

688
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:33,280
Speaker 5: game against Michigan Nikia Watson just two point seven yards

689
00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:35,920
Speaker 5: after contact. Just really not a lot of highlight yards

690
00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 5: going on here. And then somebody else stepped in that

691
00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:41,120
Speaker 5: did not play in the Illinois game and that was

692
00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:44,280
Speaker 5: jalen Berger. He had fifteen carries for eighty seven yards,

693
00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:47,240
Speaker 5: which is, you know, good decent, but he averaged five

694
00:33:47,320 --> 00:33:50,600
Speaker 5: point one two yards after contact. He was a machine

695
00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:54,760
Speaker 5: after getting touched. He looked like everything that we've been

696
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:58,040
Speaker 5: looking for complaining about in Nikia Watson. Jalen Berger got

697
00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:01,680
Speaker 5: those fifteen carries. He didn't play against Illinois. I'm not

698
00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:04,479
Speaker 5: sure if Wisconsin wanted them on film. I'm not sure

699
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:06,400
Speaker 5: if Wisconsin held them back out of Illinois, I'm not

700
00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:09,759
Speaker 5: sure they Maybe they were just trying to see, you

701
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:12,360
Speaker 5: know who our next new running back is going to be.

702
00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:15,840
Speaker 5: But from a yards after contact perspective, jalen Berger did

703
00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:18,920
Speaker 5: a great job against Michigan. Wildcats defense has been the

704
00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:21,160
Speaker 5: heartbeat of this team and the reason why they're four

705
00:34:21,200 --> 00:34:23,879
Speaker 5: and zero. I can rattle off everything in the world.

706
00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:26,200
Speaker 5: There's sixth in pass covers, the thirteenth in line yards,

707
00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:28,520
Speaker 5: there's second and stuff for right, twenty seventh in defensive having.

708
00:34:28,840 --> 00:34:31,200
Speaker 5: The question is is Northwestern going to do enough to

709
00:34:31,239 --> 00:34:34,680
Speaker 5: offensively cover this game to win or cover this game? There?

710
00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:36,879
Speaker 5: You know, they rushed sixty three percent of the time,

711
00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:39,520
Speaker 5: but they're only one hundred and tenth in rushing success rates,

712
00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:41,080
Speaker 5: so it doesn't make much sense why, you know, they're

713
00:34:41,120 --> 00:34:43,040
Speaker 5: not really getting the proper yards that they need on

714
00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:46,000
Speaker 5: first and second down, which is getting Peyton Ramsey, you know,

715
00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:49,080
Speaker 5: having him to save the day in third downs, which

716
00:34:49,400 --> 00:34:51,520
Speaker 5: Northwestern has been really good in third downs so far

717
00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:54,640
Speaker 5: considering their average distance to go. I think the jalen

718
00:34:54,680 --> 00:34:57,400
Speaker 5: Burger thing can be a big difference here. And I

719
00:34:57,560 --> 00:34:59,680
Speaker 5: look at a lot of Northwestern's numbers and there's nothing

720
00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:01,920
Speaker 5: for all about him. There's nothing fake. I mean, I

721
00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:04,759
Speaker 5: don't scratch my head like I do with Indiana. I

722
00:35:04,880 --> 00:35:07,399
Speaker 5: power rate this game to be six, so obviously it's seven.

723
00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:10,160
Speaker 5: It's really tight. As far as the total is concerned,

724
00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:12,200
Speaker 5: I think it should be more up around fifty. But

725
00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:14,319
Speaker 5: looking at the fact that both of these teams are,

726
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:17,560
Speaker 5: you know, top twenty in defensive finishing drives and Wisconsin's

727
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:21,200
Speaker 5: running at the slowest pace in the country, the total

728
00:35:21,239 --> 00:35:24,560
Speaker 5: is pretty much justified. So if I have I probably

729
00:35:24,600 --> 00:35:26,319
Speaker 5: will not have any money in this game. But if

730
00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:28,719
Speaker 5: I had to make a play, I'd actually take Wisconsin

731
00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:32,400
Speaker 5: minus seven. The whole Jalen Burger in the yards after contact.

732
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:35,759
Speaker 5: That was something that we have not seen before. And

733
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:38,640
Speaker 5: if he can find some holes, that's gonna help Graham

734
00:35:38,680 --> 00:35:39,879
Speaker 5: Mertz out and third and long.

735
00:35:40,280 --> 00:35:43,080
Speaker 6: I yep, that's the side that you make me better.

736
00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:45,759
Speaker 6: That's the side I'm going as well. You just have

737
00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:47,400
Speaker 6: to avoid the Northwestern voodoo.

738
00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:51,439
Speaker 3: All right, Let's move on to our fourth marquee game

739
00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:56,920
Speaker 3: of the day, and let's talk a little Mountain West,

740
00:35:57,160 --> 00:35:59,640
Speaker 3: which is gonna be on CBS at three point thirty

741
00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:04,800
Speaker 3: East at Pat MGM. Right now, San Diego State is

742
00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:08,600
Speaker 3: a two point favorite at Nevada. This is the first

743
00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:12,640
Speaker 3: nationally televised game for Nevada in four or five years

744
00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:16,840
Speaker 3: on primary cable over under forty seven and a half.

745
00:36:17,560 --> 00:36:19,040
Speaker 3: I'm gonna have a right up for this game, so

746
00:36:19,120 --> 00:36:22,000
Speaker 3: I'll keep it brief. But look, Nevada's four out of

747
00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:24,759
Speaker 3: San Diego State is three and one. You like the

748
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:27,400
Speaker 3: San Diego State offense. I'm still trying to figure out why.

749
00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:28,920
Speaker 3: I mean, they can run the ball. They have a

750
00:36:28,960 --> 00:36:31,800
Speaker 3: transfer from Nebraska that's been running the ball well, but

751
00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:34,239
Speaker 3: they can't do it any much more than that. I mean,

752
00:36:34,520 --> 00:36:37,440
Speaker 3: they played Hawaii last week. Carson Baker, their quarterback, went

753
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:39,800
Speaker 3: four to thirteen for thirty yards. And two picks.

754
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:42,120
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, I mean he didn't have to throw it,

755
00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:44,320
Speaker 6: but they I mean, they can't throw it again. This

756
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:47,920
Speaker 6: looks like the old San Diego State teams. And their

757
00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:51,040
Speaker 6: defense is elite. Their defense is top fifteen, top twenty

758
00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:53,359
Speaker 6: in the country. Again, you can't really run on them,

759
00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:56,640
Speaker 6: and they're still running that three three five. Their secondary

760
00:36:56,800 --> 00:37:00,200
Speaker 6: is excellent led by Thompson. Their safety it's gonna play

761
00:37:00,200 --> 00:37:03,120
Speaker 6: at the next level. They just are solid all round. Now,

762
00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:06,000
Speaker 6: Nevada has been awesome and I wrote I wrote about

763
00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:08,920
Speaker 6: this in Mountain West Preview. I think that they're Carson

764
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:11,719
Speaker 6: Strong just freshman year, he had some struggles in the

765
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:13,879
Speaker 6: air raid. I think that he's gonna take a big

766
00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:16,279
Speaker 6: step forward this year, and he has mainly thanks to

767
00:37:16,360 --> 00:37:17,800
Speaker 6: my boy Romeo Dobs.

768
00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:18,960
Speaker 3: I mean, he's been amazing.

769
00:37:19,040 --> 00:37:21,080
Speaker 6: He's thirty one catches for six hundred and forty five

770
00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:23,080
Speaker 6: yards and eight touchdowns so far this year. Here's the

771
00:37:23,080 --> 00:37:25,560
Speaker 6: stat lines so far. First game twelve catches, one hundred

772
00:37:25,560 --> 00:37:29,040
Speaker 6: and seventeen yards, touchdown, Second game seven to nineteen touchdown,

773
00:37:29,560 --> 00:37:33,319
Speaker 6: Third game seven one thirty seven three touchdowns. Last week

774
00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:36,960
Speaker 6: five one seventy two three touchdowns. I mean it's just

775
00:37:37,160 --> 00:37:40,719
Speaker 6: unbelievable the numbers that he's putting up. But Nevada has

776
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:45,400
Speaker 6: played garbage, garbage defenses. I mean, they played Wyoming in

777
00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:48,160
Speaker 6: the opener they've had. They've lost so much on their defense,

778
00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:52,839
Speaker 6: and they played UNLV I mean Utah State just then

779
00:37:53,040 --> 00:37:55,480
Speaker 6: New Mexico and they kind of had a fight tooth

780
00:37:55,520 --> 00:37:58,280
Speaker 6: And now for that New Mexico win, just dreadful defenses

781
00:37:58,280 --> 00:37:59,000
Speaker 6: they played so.

782
00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:02,719
Speaker 3: And in all those games, Utah State, maybe Utah State

783
00:38:02,800 --> 00:38:05,000
Speaker 3: thirty four to nine. They were down nine to nothing

784
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:09,239
Speaker 3: against New Mexico after the first quarter. New Mexico's up

785
00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:12,520
Speaker 3: seven to nothing. So they're coming out slow and sluggish

786
00:38:12,560 --> 00:38:13,880
Speaker 3: in a lot of these games, and their offense is

787
00:38:13,920 --> 00:38:16,959
Speaker 3: waking up. I think I'm gonna wait for Nevada live

788
00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:20,839
Speaker 3: play because I think that there's gonna be a little

789
00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:24,879
Speaker 3: They've showed Forgiviny to come out and be a little

790
00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:27,040
Speaker 3: slow and sluggish, So maybe that happens. But I also

791
00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:29,040
Speaker 3: think there's gonna be a little shock to the offensive,

792
00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:33,280
Speaker 3: shock to the system going from all these just baby

793
00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:36,880
Speaker 3: soft defenses to one of the best in the country

794
00:38:36,880 --> 00:38:40,360
Speaker 3: in San Diego State. But then I think Carson Strong

795
00:38:40,360 --> 00:38:42,880
Speaker 3: will hit some plays, Dobbs will make his presence spelt.

796
00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:45,360
Speaker 6: Yeah, So I'm gonna look for I think a Nevada

797
00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:48,239
Speaker 6: Live number. If they come out slow, I'll be right

798
00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:49,560
Speaker 6: up for this. But what are your thoughts here?

799
00:38:49,840 --> 00:38:52,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm probably going to end up on San Diego

800
00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:56,120
Speaker 5: State pregame and probably end up on yet another Aztecs over.

801
00:38:56,239 --> 00:38:59,080
Speaker 5: I keep taking over the over. I keep taking overs

802
00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:01,360
Speaker 5: every week with this team because I love this offense.

803
00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:05,160
Speaker 5: But I cannot seem to get any help from their opponents,

804
00:39:05,200 --> 00:39:07,320
Speaker 5: and no one else is scoring points with you know

805
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:10,360
Speaker 5: to and and that's a product of their defense and

806
00:39:10,719 --> 00:39:13,480
Speaker 5: the quality of the play that they've had. Listen, I

807
00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:16,160
Speaker 5: love the offense that the new I know they're now

808
00:39:16,280 --> 00:39:17,920
Speaker 5: primarily rush and you mentioned the.

809
00:39:18,719 --> 00:39:20,720
Speaker 3: You're the only Carson Baker fan in the country.

810
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:23,279
Speaker 5: I know you mentioned Baker's numbers, but San Diego State

811
00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:26,160
Speaker 5: is sixty seven percent rush rates, so they really run

812
00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:28,000
Speaker 5: so much. There's not a lot of passing going on.

813
00:39:28,200 --> 00:39:30,359
Speaker 5: But I love them because they're eighth in the nation

814
00:39:30,480 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 5: and rush explosiveness, like they can just take off on

815
00:39:32,760 --> 00:39:34,839
Speaker 5: a dime on the ground, and the fact that they

816
00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:37,719
Speaker 5: run so much means you know that increases that chance

817
00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:39,319
Speaker 5: that they can take it to the house even more.

818
00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:42,040
Speaker 5: What gives me a little heartburning this game is that

819
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:44,360
Speaker 5: Nevada has actually been fifth in the nation and defending

820
00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:47,960
Speaker 5: rush explosiveness, So, uh, you know, we'll see if they

821
00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:51,200
Speaker 5: can match up well with San Diego State on the ground.

822
00:39:52,200 --> 00:39:53,839
Speaker 5: Really kind of a wash when you look at things

823
00:39:53,880 --> 00:39:57,640
Speaker 5: like lineyard stuff, right, power success. Uh, you know, Nevada's

824
00:39:57,680 --> 00:40:00,600
Speaker 5: eleventh and pass coverage on defense, but it might not

825
00:40:00,719 --> 00:40:02,400
Speaker 5: matter that much in this game because of how much

826
00:40:02,480 --> 00:40:06,080
Speaker 5: San Diego State runs, you know that. I just think

827
00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:07,960
Speaker 5: Nevada is gonna have to bring everything that they have

828
00:40:08,120 --> 00:40:11,919
Speaker 5: from a rush defensive perspective against Jeff Hecklinski's new rush

829
00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:14,440
Speaker 5: offense that they have at San Diego State. But I

830
00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 5: think there's tons of defensive advantages for San Diego State

831
00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:20,160
Speaker 5: here as well. Nevada loves to pass, but the Aztecs

832
00:40:20,160 --> 00:40:22,680
Speaker 5: are fifth in coverage and they're third against the explosive pass.

833
00:40:22,719 --> 00:40:25,399
Speaker 5: So I love Carson Strong back in the four made

834
00:40:25,480 --> 00:40:28,320
Speaker 5: us some money here, but San Diego State is playing

835
00:40:28,400 --> 00:40:30,200
Speaker 5: some really good defense. I know that they've been at

836
00:40:30,239 --> 00:40:32,560
Speaker 5: the top of our HAVOC ratings every single week and

837
00:40:32,680 --> 00:40:36,080
Speaker 5: havoc is really what might make the difference here. Nevada

838
00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:39,440
Speaker 5: is one hundred and seventh and havoc allowed, and San

839
00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:42,520
Speaker 5: Diego State is second overall in defensive havoc. Nevada is

840
00:40:42,600 --> 00:40:45,360
Speaker 5: going to have plenty of tackles for loss on offense,

841
00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:47,560
Speaker 5: They're gonna have plenty of pass breakups, and they're probably

842
00:40:47,560 --> 00:40:49,880
Speaker 5: gonna have some fumbles for us and probably some ads.

843
00:40:50,160 --> 00:40:52,480
Speaker 5: You know, it's just havoc is a way. It's not

844
00:40:52,560 --> 00:40:54,400
Speaker 5: something that you want to base your entire bet on,

845
00:40:54,560 --> 00:40:57,319
Speaker 5: but it's a pretty wild indicator on if there's going

846
00:40:57,360 --> 00:40:59,840
Speaker 5: to be turnovers to one side, especially when you have

847
00:40:59,880 --> 00:41:01,960
Speaker 5: a team like San Diego State who's second in defensive

848
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:04,680
Speaker 5: HAVOC and Nevada who's one hundred and seventh and havoc allowed.

849
00:41:04,800 --> 00:41:09,160
Speaker 5: So both these teams have huge statistical advantages in finishing drives.

850
00:41:09,760 --> 00:41:12,440
Speaker 5: Nevada is not the greatest on defensive finishing drives, but

851
00:41:12,560 --> 00:41:14,520
Speaker 5: San Diego State isn't the greatest and getting points up

852
00:41:14,520 --> 00:41:16,759
Speaker 5: on the board, but Santago State's defense is fourth in

853
00:41:16,800 --> 00:41:19,439
Speaker 5: the nation defensive finishing drive. So I can understand why

854
00:41:19,880 --> 00:41:21,759
Speaker 5: the total is as low as it is. I do

855
00:41:22,000 --> 00:41:23,640
Speaker 5: like the over I think I think it's down a

856
00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:25,879
Speaker 5: little bit too low. I think there's gonna be something

857
00:41:25,960 --> 00:41:28,040
Speaker 5: wild and here from a Havock perspective, maybe a scoop

858
00:41:28,080 --> 00:41:30,520
Speaker 5: and score. I mean, there's just I think it's gonna

859
00:41:30,520 --> 00:41:32,520
Speaker 5: be a great game. I'm glad it's on national TV.

860
00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:34,440
Speaker 5: I'm probably gonna end up on the Aztecs in the

861
00:41:34,520 --> 00:41:34,920
Speaker 5: over here.

862
00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:36,960
Speaker 6: I'll be interesting to see what Nevada does from a

863
00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:40,160
Speaker 6: defensive perspective. They run a four to five. Their best

864
00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:42,560
Speaker 6: player is Don Peterson up front. He's a really good player,

865
00:41:43,080 --> 00:41:45,879
Speaker 6: but they don't have much else as far as star power.

866
00:41:45,920 --> 00:41:47,160
Speaker 6: But you don't want to run a four to five

867
00:41:47,160 --> 00:41:50,560
Speaker 6: against this run heavy San Diego State rush offense, So

868
00:41:51,880 --> 00:41:54,800
Speaker 6: there might have to bring in an extra backer, extra safety.

869
00:41:55,239 --> 00:41:57,240
Speaker 3: We're gonna have to stack the box. I'll be curious

870
00:41:57,280 --> 00:41:58,120
Speaker 3: to watch that as well.

871
00:41:58,480 --> 00:42:01,160
Speaker 5: As much as San Diego State runs the ball at

872
00:42:01,200 --> 00:42:05,520
Speaker 5: sixty seven percent, Nevada is a pass offense at sixty

873
00:42:05,640 --> 00:42:08,719
Speaker 5: three percent, so and that's the whole thing in San

874
00:42:08,760 --> 00:42:11,480
Speaker 5: Diego State is sixth in the nation against passing an

875
00:42:11,560 --> 00:42:15,640
Speaker 5: opponent passing success rate and their third and limiting pass explosiveness,

876
00:42:15,719 --> 00:42:17,440
Speaker 5: and that was a big part of the handicap, too,

877
00:42:17,600 --> 00:42:19,920
Speaker 5: is that the Aztecs should be able to handle what

878
00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:22,520
Speaker 5: Nevada primarily does with Carson Strong.

879
00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:25,239
Speaker 6: All right, let's move on to our final marquee game

880
00:42:25,280 --> 00:42:33,760
Speaker 6: of the day. Let's talk some bed them at bet MGM.

881
00:42:34,280 --> 00:42:38,680
Speaker 3: Oklahoma is a seven point home favorite over under fifty

882
00:42:38,880 --> 00:42:39,839
Speaker 3: eight and a half.

883
00:42:40,520 --> 00:42:42,680
Speaker 6: Okay, this is actually the This is surprised. The first

884
00:42:42,680 --> 00:42:45,000
Speaker 6: time college game they will be in Norman in eight years.

885
00:42:45,560 --> 00:42:48,719
Speaker 6: Last time they were there, Notre Dame was playing Oklahoma.

886
00:42:49,239 --> 00:42:52,160
Speaker 6: Manta Tao was on that team. James Hard actually got

887
00:42:52,200 --> 00:42:55,680
Speaker 6: traded during the game. Oklahoma's won five straight in the series.

888
00:42:56,040 --> 00:42:59,279
Speaker 6: Mike bundyes two and thirteen against Oklahoma. I'll tell our

889
00:42:59,320 --> 00:43:02,719
Speaker 6: producer played the clown noise or the clown horn right

890
00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:05,240
Speaker 6: now because I played this under. Yeah, under between Oklahoma

891
00:43:05,239 --> 00:43:12,880
Speaker 6: and Oklahoma State. Here's so when you look at Oklahoma

892
00:43:12,880 --> 00:43:14,880
Speaker 6: State right off the bat, first of all, their offense

893
00:43:14,920 --> 00:43:18,319
Speaker 6: has been awful. They're averaging five point four yards per play,

894
00:43:18,440 --> 00:43:21,600
Speaker 6: eighty fourth in the country. Hubbard's had a down year.

895
00:43:21,840 --> 00:43:24,719
Speaker 6: Wallace is a little banged up. He's at a down year.

896
00:43:25,840 --> 00:43:27,880
Speaker 6: Why on the offensive.

897
00:43:27,440 --> 00:43:32,799
Speaker 3: Line is a disaster? Disaster? I mean it's it's a mess.

898
00:43:33,320 --> 00:43:35,640
Speaker 6: Ready we go we want to talk about I'll go

899
00:43:35,680 --> 00:43:39,240
Speaker 6: through this really quickly, rapid fire. Left tackle Jake Springfield

900
00:43:39,280 --> 00:43:41,359
Speaker 6: started four games not on the depth chart. This week

901
00:43:41,400 --> 00:43:44,279
Speaker 6: after an injury Sills, who transferred to West Virginia, he

902
00:43:44,280 --> 00:43:46,200
Speaker 6: has to move from left guard to left tackle, which

903
00:43:46,200 --> 00:43:48,359
Speaker 6: means freshman Preston Wilson has to move to left guard.

904
00:43:48,719 --> 00:43:52,080
Speaker 6: Right tackle Tevin Jenkinson an NFL prospect, he got banged

905
00:43:52,160 --> 00:43:54,800
Speaker 6: up in last game. He's a true freshman backup, and

906
00:43:54,920 --> 00:43:57,160
Speaker 6: Jenkins himself had moved to the right side after a

907
00:43:57,239 --> 00:44:01,640
Speaker 6: Hunter Anthony went down in the opener. Right guard software

908
00:44:01,680 --> 00:44:04,880
Speaker 6: Hunter Woodward he started since Cole Birmingham went down on

909
00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:08,799
Speaker 6: the opener. Also returning starter Dylan Galloway he opted out.

910
00:44:09,239 --> 00:44:11,879
Speaker 6: Starting guard Bryce Bray got kicked off the team. Back

911
00:44:11,960 --> 00:44:12,799
Speaker 6: up Jacob.

912
00:44:12,520 --> 00:44:16,360
Speaker 3: Farrell was dismissed. Musical chairs. Just turn over every.

913
00:44:16,239 --> 00:44:17,800
Speaker 6: Yard one of the results one hundred and fourth in

914
00:44:17,840 --> 00:44:21,840
Speaker 6: lineyards one hundred and seventeenth and passing down lineyards. Can't block,

915
00:44:22,160 --> 00:44:26,279
Speaker 6: can't block for Elbert. You can't give Sanders any time.

916
00:44:26,760 --> 00:44:30,200
Speaker 6: And when Sanders doesn't get any time, he's been really

917
00:44:30,280 --> 00:44:34,320
Speaker 6: bad under pressure, very very bad. Numbers are atrocious, So

918
00:44:34,719 --> 00:44:36,320
Speaker 6: can Oklahoma take advantage?

919
00:44:37,000 --> 00:44:37,359
Speaker 3: You bet.

920
00:44:37,680 --> 00:44:40,000
Speaker 6: Oklahoma's defense is a different animal lately. I know they've

921
00:44:40,000 --> 00:44:43,320
Speaker 6: played subpar competitions with Ronnie Perkins back d end that

922
00:44:43,400 --> 00:44:46,279
Speaker 6: allows Isaiah Thomas side of the middle. Nick Benito has

923
00:44:46,280 --> 00:44:47,920
Speaker 6: been one of the best linebackers the country getting to

924
00:44:47,960 --> 00:44:50,800
Speaker 6: the quarterback. Defensive front is just rolling right now, and

925
00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:52,759
Speaker 6: they bring a ton of pressure. That's what Alex Grinch

926
00:44:52,840 --> 00:44:55,600
Speaker 6: wants to do. Their twelfth in lineyards eighth and passing

927
00:44:55,680 --> 00:44:58,560
Speaker 6: down sacrate. I could get Stokes back to that'll help.

928
00:44:59,160 --> 00:45:03,759
Speaker 6: So oh you nationally in sacks three point seventy one,

929
00:45:03,880 --> 00:45:07,120
Speaker 6: thirteenth and tackles for loss. Oklahoma State ninety third in

930
00:45:07,200 --> 00:45:11,239
Speaker 6: sacks allowed. So I think Oklahoma's going to disrupt this

931
00:45:11,480 --> 00:45:14,399
Speaker 6: offense all day long. On the other side of the ball,

932
00:45:14,400 --> 00:45:17,960
Speaker 6: Oklahoma State's defense is really good. There's no weaknesses, one

933
00:45:18,000 --> 00:45:20,080
Speaker 6: of the best safety doers the country in the back end,

934
00:45:20,400 --> 00:45:22,200
Speaker 6: really strong at linebacker, defensive line.

935
00:45:22,920 --> 00:45:26,759
Speaker 3: It's just a really good defense. Oklahoma should get there.

936
00:45:27,000 --> 00:45:30,439
Speaker 3: But rumors swirling in Norman a bunch of offensive linemen

937
00:45:30,480 --> 00:45:33,960
Speaker 3: are gonna be ruled out potentially for this game, so

938
00:45:34,120 --> 00:45:36,239
Speaker 3: that certainly won't help. The offensive line hasn't been great

939
00:45:36,239 --> 00:45:39,239
Speaker 3: anyway after all that they lost. So I think this

940
00:45:39,480 --> 00:45:43,480
Speaker 3: is a game that's played in the twentieth twenty eight,

941
00:45:43,800 --> 00:45:46,360
Speaker 3: twenty four, twenty eight, twenty one, thirty twenty one. The

942
00:45:46,400 --> 00:45:48,640
Speaker 3: Oklahoma State I mean Oklahoa States winning games by scoring

943
00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:50,920
Speaker 3: like twenty four points. This is not your older brother's

944
00:45:50,920 --> 00:45:53,520
Speaker 3: Oklahoma State team. I like the under what's what do

945
00:45:53,560 --> 00:45:53,960
Speaker 3: you see here?

946
00:45:54,239 --> 00:45:56,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, Oklahoma State is the team that I wanted to

947
00:45:56,239 --> 00:45:58,880
Speaker 5: backend this and the problem is is the amount of

948
00:45:59,280 --> 00:46:01,800
Speaker 5: injuries up and you went through the offensive line. Not

949
00:46:01,880 --> 00:46:04,960
Speaker 5: the offensive line is doing anything. They're not protecting Spencer Sanders,

950
00:46:05,360 --> 00:46:09,040
Speaker 5: but the offensive line. Mike Gundy said on Tuesday, we

951
00:46:09,200 --> 00:46:10,640
Speaker 5: won't have three offensive linemen.

952
00:46:11,680 --> 00:46:11,960
Speaker 4: That's it.

953
00:46:12,120 --> 00:46:14,319
Speaker 5: He didn't take any questions about it, wouldn't answer anything else,

954
00:46:14,400 --> 00:46:17,040
Speaker 5: just said three of our you know, starting offensive lineman

955
00:46:17,160 --> 00:46:19,640
Speaker 5: won't be there. You know. It's interesting. Tyler Wallace did

956
00:46:19,760 --> 00:46:22,200
Speaker 5: not play against Kansas State, although they did bring him

957
00:46:22,280 --> 00:46:24,560
Speaker 5: out for a Kansas State on site kick at the

958
00:46:24,640 --> 00:46:26,719
Speaker 5: end to play on the hands team. We don't know

959
00:46:26,760 --> 00:46:28,399
Speaker 5: if he I expect a little bit of a bump

960
00:46:28,440 --> 00:46:30,680
Speaker 5: in the Oklahoma State line at once. He's announced that

961
00:46:30,719 --> 00:46:32,440
Speaker 5: he is going to play. If he does play, But

962
00:46:32,719 --> 00:46:34,759
Speaker 5: you know, Tuba Hubbard to me is the key to

963
00:46:34,800 --> 00:46:38,440
Speaker 5: Oklahoma State winning this game because Oklahoma's one hundred and

964
00:46:38,440 --> 00:46:41,200
Speaker 5: thirteenth in the nation and defending rush explosiveness. Now, their

965
00:46:41,239 --> 00:46:43,520
Speaker 5: defense has been really good, like Stuck said, I mean

966
00:46:43,560 --> 00:46:45,520
Speaker 5: they've you know, they got a top twenty sack rate,

967
00:46:45,760 --> 00:46:48,279
Speaker 5: top twenty lineyards, top twenty in habit. They're doing a

968
00:46:48,440 --> 00:46:51,960
Speaker 5: very good job. But they're you know, defending rush exposive

969
00:46:51,960 --> 00:46:53,239
Speaker 5: to this has not been good. And that's what Chue

970
00:46:53,360 --> 00:46:57,680
Speaker 5: Hubbard comes in very important Oklahoma State scoring points. Oklahoma

971
00:46:57,719 --> 00:47:00,560
Speaker 5: State is playing great defense, like Stuck said, and I

972
00:47:00,680 --> 00:47:03,319
Speaker 5: think you know that's the key to beating Oklahoma. We've

973
00:47:03,480 --> 00:47:06,440
Speaker 5: seen it, we've said it, we've bet on it. Spencer

974
00:47:06,600 --> 00:47:09,719
Speaker 5: Rattler with hands in his face is a disaster. He

975
00:47:09,880 --> 00:47:12,399
Speaker 5: is not comfortable in the pocket when he's getting any

976
00:47:12,440 --> 00:47:15,719
Speaker 5: pressure whatsoever. He has made some serious mistakes. We just

977
00:47:15,760 --> 00:47:19,200
Speaker 5: don't see that changing. Oklahoma State should be all over him,

978
00:47:19,239 --> 00:47:21,600
Speaker 5: That defensive front seven should be all over them, and

979
00:47:21,640 --> 00:47:24,400
Speaker 5: then combined on top of that, Oklahoma State's back seven

980
00:47:24,920 --> 00:47:28,040
Speaker 5: is eighth in past coverage, there's sixth in defensive finishing drives.

981
00:47:28,719 --> 00:47:32,239
Speaker 5: There's all the ingredients you need here to bet and under.

982
00:47:32,360 --> 00:47:34,439
Speaker 5: It's just kind of weird to bet an under because

983
00:47:34,440 --> 00:47:36,759
Speaker 5: the names are Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. You start thinking

984
00:47:36,800 --> 00:47:39,959
Speaker 5: of Jalen Hurts, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, you start thinking

985
00:47:40,000 --> 00:47:43,400
Speaker 5: of Brandon Whedon. He starts thinking of you know, some

986
00:47:43,520 --> 00:47:45,680
Speaker 5: of the great players that have been in this series before,

987
00:47:47,040 --> 00:47:48,600
Speaker 5: you know. And this is a game that I actually

988
00:47:48,680 --> 00:47:51,640
Speaker 5: projected sixty for a total, so I think, you know,

989
00:47:51,840 --> 00:47:53,800
Speaker 5: it's just been hanging at fifty nine all week. He

990
00:47:53,840 --> 00:47:55,440
Speaker 5: can't even get the fifty nine and a half. But

991
00:47:55,560 --> 00:47:57,680
Speaker 5: I really would like to get a sixty. And I

992
00:47:57,719 --> 00:47:59,640
Speaker 5: agree with Stuck. I think the under is the play here.

993
00:47:59,760 --> 00:48:03,120
Speaker 5: I want to play Oklahoma State, but I've seen what

994
00:48:03,280 --> 00:48:05,440
Speaker 5: Spencer Sanders is when he asks pressure, and if you're

995
00:48:05,440 --> 00:48:08,640
Speaker 5: missing three offensive linemen, you can't guarantee me the Tubuhubbard's

996
00:48:08,640 --> 00:48:09,960
Speaker 5: going to be on the field, and I can't play

997
00:48:10,000 --> 00:48:12,120
Speaker 5: Oklahoma State fair enough.

998
00:48:12,760 --> 00:48:16,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think under is the play here. Clown noise,

999
00:48:16,400 --> 00:48:20,040
Speaker 3: I'm sure it'll fly over all right. Before we move

1000
00:48:20,080 --> 00:48:22,799
Speaker 3: on to the best of the rest. Here's a word

1001
00:48:22,840 --> 00:48:23,160
Speaker 3: from our.

1002
00:48:23,080 --> 00:48:26,160
Speaker 6: Sponsors at betmgm, the official outs provider of the Action

1003
00:48:26,239 --> 00:48:27,000
Speaker 6: Network podcast.

1004
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1015
00:49:04,360 --> 00:49:07,440
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1016
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1017
00:49:11,400 --> 00:49:13,000
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1018
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1019
00:49:15,600 --> 00:49:17,759
Speaker 9: gambler in New Jersey and West Virginia or one eight

1020
00:49:17,880 --> 00:49:20,080
Speaker 9: hundred and nine with it in Indiana. Promo offer not

1021
00:49:20,160 --> 00:49:22,960
Speaker 9: available in Nevada and now back to the show.

1022
00:49:25,400 --> 00:49:28,360
Speaker 6: Make sure that you go review subscribe on subscribe, subscribe,

1023
00:49:28,440 --> 00:49:31,839
Speaker 6: leave a review, five star review. Our podcast really helps

1024
00:49:31,920 --> 00:49:34,040
Speaker 6: us out. And also I'll be doing giveaways for anyone

1025
00:49:34,080 --> 00:49:37,319
Speaker 6: that does giveaway packages. I'll pick a couple. I'll pick

1026
00:49:37,320 --> 00:49:41,640
Speaker 6: a funny one and one that's just a genuine review.

1027
00:49:42,560 --> 00:49:44,560
Speaker 6: I don't forget about the voicemail shit on us. All

1028
00:49:44,600 --> 00:49:46,480
Speaker 6: you want, I keep forgetting. I'm like, wow, I must

1029
00:49:46,520 --> 00:49:48,080
Speaker 6: be losing millions of dollars as you're the night to

1030
00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:50,600
Speaker 6: check because I always think I'm doing way worse than

1031
00:49:50,600 --> 00:49:52,000
Speaker 6: I am because of the voicemails.

1032
00:49:52,239 --> 00:49:53,040
Speaker 3: Just keep me humble.

1033
00:49:53,520 --> 00:49:55,480
Speaker 6: All right, let's move on to the best of the rest.

1034
00:49:56,280 --> 00:49:59,960
Speaker 6: We'll quickly go through game or two in each conference.

1035
00:50:00,760 --> 00:50:04,400
Speaker 6: All right, let's do quick big ten yes or no,

1036
00:50:05,640 --> 00:50:07,879
Speaker 6: just one sentence. Here is it time to buy low

1037
00:50:07,920 --> 00:50:10,520
Speaker 6: and Penn State. It's kind of shocking to say Penn

1038
00:50:10,560 --> 00:50:12,759
Speaker 6: State is zero and four people talking about them at

1039
00:50:12,760 --> 00:50:15,520
Speaker 6: winning the national championship. They're a home dog now to Iowa.

1040
00:50:15,600 --> 00:50:16,440
Speaker 6: It's a time to buy low.

1041
00:50:16,880 --> 00:50:19,320
Speaker 5: I think so. I think they're going to bring in

1042
00:50:19,400 --> 00:50:21,680
Speaker 5: the Levis kid and take over with Sean Clipper, who's

1043
00:50:21,719 --> 00:50:24,600
Speaker 5: just been a turnover disaster this year. They have not

1044
00:50:24,719 --> 00:50:26,920
Speaker 5: stopped playing like they haven't quit on the season. And

1045
00:50:27,000 --> 00:50:29,040
Speaker 5: you and I have seen that. This is a game

1046
00:50:29,600 --> 00:50:32,320
Speaker 5: that was power rated around Penn State minus nine and

1047
00:50:32,360 --> 00:50:34,200
Speaker 5: a half a month ago, and now I was getting

1048
00:50:34,239 --> 00:50:36,040
Speaker 5: two and a half out of out of pay State.

1049
00:50:36,200 --> 00:50:38,040
Speaker 5: I mean, I saw what Iowa did in the trench

1050
00:50:38,040 --> 00:50:40,640
Speaker 5: against Minnesota, not tough to do, but in Penn State's

1051
00:50:40,680 --> 00:50:43,879
Speaker 5: defense has been terrible. I'm not selling Penn State down

1052
00:50:43,920 --> 00:50:46,040
Speaker 5: the river here, not really rushing to buy him at

1053
00:50:46,040 --> 00:50:47,560
Speaker 5: two and a half, but I'll take three on their

1054
00:50:47,560 --> 00:50:48,200
Speaker 5: own home field.

1055
00:50:48,239 --> 00:50:51,920
Speaker 3: Sure, I'll throw them at around Robin Michigan got to

1056
00:50:52,000 --> 00:50:53,560
Speaker 3: check in with our boy, Bowdog Jim.

1057
00:50:56,560 --> 00:50:59,040
Speaker 5: Don't gamble, don't associate with gamblers.

1058
00:51:00,239 --> 00:51:01,960
Speaker 3: Avoided like the plague.

1059
00:51:03,040 --> 00:51:05,399
Speaker 7: Let's check in with bo Dog Jim.

1060
00:51:07,320 --> 00:51:10,000
Speaker 6: I mean, it's really amazing. Michigan is one in three

1061
00:51:10,080 --> 00:51:12,080
Speaker 6: and Penn State is zero and four. When's the last

1062
00:51:12,080 --> 00:51:15,480
Speaker 6: time this season one and seven combined Michigan's been a

1063
00:51:15,520 --> 00:51:19,200
Speaker 6: bismal We make this line what close to two touchdowns?

1064
00:51:19,560 --> 00:51:22,279
Speaker 6: Yep I took the night I played minus nine and

1065
00:51:22,280 --> 00:51:22,560
Speaker 6: a half.

1066
00:51:22,719 --> 00:51:25,960
Speaker 3: I say, if they can't cover this, I mean, you

1067
00:51:26,080 --> 00:51:28,359
Speaker 3: got that guy better call on the voicema on lead

1068
00:51:28,520 --> 00:51:29,600
Speaker 3: just another electric one.

1069
00:51:30,080 --> 00:51:33,799
Speaker 4: Hey, do me a favor, don't bleep this out. Jim

1070
00:51:33,960 --> 00:51:40,120
Speaker 4: Harbaugh is a mother for that. I'm more money on

1071
00:51:40,200 --> 00:51:43,560
Speaker 4: that mother since the day he set foot in Michigan

1072
00:51:43,640 --> 00:51:45,719
Speaker 4: with a stupid mother pack.

1073
00:51:46,640 --> 00:51:50,520
Speaker 6: And the talent descriptory is huge. I think you're just

1074
00:51:50,560 --> 00:51:53,560
Speaker 6: getting Michigan at discount. The records offense stinks. Can't take

1075
00:51:53,560 --> 00:51:55,480
Speaker 6: advantage of some of the problems on the Michigan defense.

1076
00:51:55,840 --> 00:51:58,719
Speaker 6: Just like I why that Illinois last week? I'm back

1077
00:51:58,760 --> 00:51:59,280
Speaker 6: in Bowdog.

1078
00:51:59,360 --> 00:52:02,359
Speaker 5: Jim You yeah, you know you're killing me. I walk

1079
00:52:02,400 --> 00:52:04,680
Speaker 5: around my house. I get notifications from the action app.

1080
00:52:04,719 --> 00:52:08,040
Speaker 5: Stucky's taking Stugy's taking Michigan. You and I podcasted on

1081
00:52:08,120 --> 00:52:10,879
Speaker 5: Sunday night. I said, damn, this line came out at eight.

1082
00:52:10,960 --> 00:52:13,600
Speaker 5: I can't get involved. This line is so bad. I

1083
00:52:13,719 --> 00:52:16,800
Speaker 5: can't get involved. And now here we are, it's steamed

1084
00:52:16,840 --> 00:52:19,640
Speaker 5: all the way up to eleven. I don't think it'll

1085
00:52:19,640 --> 00:52:22,480
Speaker 5: stop standing. The Rutgers D is terrible against rush explosiveness.

1086
00:52:22,520 --> 00:52:26,080
Speaker 5: That's great news for Hassan Haskins, who's averaging five point

1087
00:52:26,160 --> 00:52:28,759
Speaker 5: seven six yards after contact. I don't know what's going

1088
00:52:28,800 --> 00:52:31,200
Speaker 5: on with Josh Gattis In this offense, They're running the

1089
00:52:31,239 --> 00:52:33,120
Speaker 5: ball to forty two percent rate. I mean they have

1090
00:52:33,200 --> 00:52:35,719
Speaker 5: the longest. I tweeted this out yesterday. I pulled some

1091
00:52:36,440 --> 00:52:41,680
Speaker 5: average distance on third downs for offenses and defenses. Michigan

1092
00:52:41,920 --> 00:52:45,960
Speaker 5: is the worst offensive team in the nation as far

1093
00:52:46,040 --> 00:52:48,880
Speaker 5: as distance on third downs. It's over nine yards. You know,

1094
00:52:48,960 --> 00:52:51,719
Speaker 5: every Michigan category that has outside the top one hundred's.

1095
00:52:51,960 --> 00:52:53,600
Speaker 5: It's tough to even think of an under here. These

1096
00:52:53,680 --> 00:52:56,239
Speaker 5: defenses are so bad, and I'm including Michigan's in this,

1097
00:52:56,440 --> 00:52:58,440
Speaker 5: so tough to think that there's going to be an

1098
00:52:58,480 --> 00:53:00,839
Speaker 5: under here. But yeah, I agree with you. The number

1099
00:53:00,920 --> 00:53:03,799
Speaker 5: is bad. It's just bad all around. And now I'm

1100
00:53:03,920 --> 00:53:05,680
Speaker 5: jealous that you've got a Michigan ticket and I don't,

1101
00:53:05,719 --> 00:53:06,640
Speaker 5: so I might have to jump.

1102
00:53:06,520 --> 00:53:11,759
Speaker 3: In Mountain West, San Jose State, Fresno State. I played

1103
00:53:11,800 --> 00:53:14,560
Speaker 3: some over here at San Jose State's run defense for

1104
00:53:14,640 --> 00:53:16,719
Speaker 3: some reason has been so good, Like they shut down

1105
00:53:16,800 --> 00:53:18,640
Speaker 3: San Diego State, they shut down Air Force.

1106
00:53:19,000 --> 00:53:21,040
Speaker 6: I don't know where this is coming from. I think

1107
00:53:21,080 --> 00:53:24,680
Speaker 6: they're overperforming. Fresno States defense is terrible.

1108
00:53:24,840 --> 00:53:27,520
Speaker 3: I think that their offense under Dober's gonna be able

1109
00:53:27,560 --> 00:53:30,440
Speaker 3: to do some good things. I think this goes over sixties,

1110
00:53:30,760 --> 00:53:33,920
Speaker 3: should be a shootout. And then Boise, why the late

1111
00:53:33,960 --> 00:53:35,960
Speaker 3: I get Boise's a fourteen and a half point favorite.

1112
00:53:36,400 --> 00:53:38,600
Speaker 3: I think this is high. I might be this is

1113
00:53:38,760 --> 00:53:40,319
Speaker 3: what your chase game.

1114
00:53:40,920 --> 00:53:42,680
Speaker 6: I just haven't been dempressed with Poise. I mean they

1115
00:53:42,760 --> 00:53:45,799
Speaker 6: blew up Colorida State because they scored like five touchdowns

1116
00:53:45,840 --> 00:53:49,319
Speaker 6: on five blocked punts. It was I mean, you call

1117
00:53:49,400 --> 00:53:52,680
Speaker 6: them get blitzed by BYU. But they won by thirty

1118
00:53:52,760 --> 00:53:55,920
Speaker 6: one against Colorado State, but they had two hundred and

1119
00:53:55,960 --> 00:53:58,080
Speaker 6: ninety one yards compared to three hundred and fifteen for

1120
00:53:58,160 --> 00:54:00,480
Speaker 6: Coloriado State. They had four point three three yards for

1121
00:54:00,520 --> 00:54:02,279
Speaker 6: play Colorida State at four point five. One of the

1122
00:54:02,280 --> 00:54:04,800
Speaker 6: most bizarre box scores of the year. It's literally scored

1123
00:54:04,840 --> 00:54:07,960
Speaker 6: like thirty points on blocked kicks. So I thought this

1124
00:54:08,080 --> 00:54:09,840
Speaker 6: was going to create some value. He for why Hawaii's

1125
00:54:09,880 --> 00:54:11,719
Speaker 6: just been so bad they can't even get to the

1126
00:54:11,800 --> 00:54:13,800
Speaker 6: red zone to do our go go offense. But I

1127
00:54:13,880 --> 00:54:15,919
Speaker 6: might might be back in the bows here. Any thoughts

1128
00:54:15,960 --> 00:54:16,520
Speaker 6: in those two games.

1129
00:54:16,680 --> 00:54:19,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, that whole Colorado State Boise game, Like the live

1130
00:54:19,239 --> 00:54:20,960
Speaker 5: line got at to thirty eight, and I thought, well,

1131
00:54:21,000 --> 00:54:23,399
Speaker 5: Boise scored all their points on blunt blocks, so I'm

1132
00:54:23,440 --> 00:54:25,080
Speaker 5: not I got to take a live line here on

1133
00:54:25,160 --> 00:54:28,960
Speaker 5: Colorado State. But you know, the thing that worries me

1134
00:54:29,200 --> 00:54:32,239
Speaker 5: about Boise and I wrote that game up as our

1135
00:54:32,320 --> 00:54:35,760
Speaker 5: blackout chaser, and I said, listen, if Boise is fully healthy,

1136
00:54:36,280 --> 00:54:38,759
Speaker 5: then I can't see how this game doesn't go over

1137
00:54:38,840 --> 00:54:41,120
Speaker 5: and I can't see how Boise State isn't able to

1138
00:54:41,480 --> 00:54:43,440
Speaker 5: cover the spread. And really, I mean, this is a

1139
00:54:43,480 --> 00:54:45,600
Speaker 5: game I projected thirteen and a half, so I don't

1140
00:54:45,600 --> 00:54:47,440
Speaker 5: want to put too much into it with with Boise

1141
00:54:47,560 --> 00:54:50,000
Speaker 5: being at fourteen. But this is a Boise State team

1142
00:54:50,040 --> 00:54:52,440
Speaker 5: that is, you know, twenty six in offensive explosiveness and

1143
00:54:52,480 --> 00:54:57,160
Speaker 5: Hawaii's defense is eighty fifth. And defending pass explosiveness, Hawaii's

1144
00:54:57,200 --> 00:54:59,520
Speaker 5: defense has not been good whatsoever. They are ranked one

1145
00:54:59,600 --> 00:55:04,000
Speaker 5: hundred and twenty third by PFF in tackling Boise State's

1146
00:55:04,000 --> 00:55:07,799
Speaker 5: fifth and finishing drive on offense. Boise State, assuming Kate

1147
00:55:07,880 --> 00:55:12,360
Speaker 5: Finnegan is not the quarterback, assuming it's Hank Bachmeyer, assuming

1148
00:55:12,520 --> 00:55:14,960
Speaker 5: we don't have all these COVID things going on, because

1149
00:55:15,280 --> 00:55:17,080
Speaker 5: I can tell you what happened last week. We got

1150
00:55:17,160 --> 00:55:19,320
Speaker 5: word the second the press box got it in Boise

1151
00:55:19,440 --> 00:55:22,359
Speaker 5: State and our company slack, we knew that Boise's gonna

1152
00:55:22,360 --> 00:55:24,800
Speaker 5: be missing fourteen players on defense. And you know, I

1153
00:55:24,920 --> 00:55:27,160
Speaker 5: still didn't lay hold on here. I don't know if

1154
00:55:27,160 --> 00:55:29,239
Speaker 5: I want to buy into Colorado State just yet. It

1155
00:55:29,320 --> 00:55:32,160
Speaker 5: didn't seem to matter. Brian Harrison comes out the other

1156
00:55:32,239 --> 00:55:34,239
Speaker 5: day and he says, listen, we're still dealing with all

1157
00:55:34,320 --> 00:55:36,960
Speaker 5: of that, and we've had to swap offensive lineman and

1158
00:55:37,000 --> 00:55:39,040
Speaker 5: defensive lineman from one side of the other just for

1159
00:55:39,160 --> 00:55:41,680
Speaker 5: depth concerns, just so that we can play in these games.

1160
00:55:42,400 --> 00:55:47,000
Speaker 5: He's complained a lot about having Friday night games being

1161
00:55:47,080 --> 00:55:49,560
Speaker 5: off schedule, dealing with COVID, and now he's taking a

1162
00:55:49,600 --> 00:55:52,879
Speaker 5: six hour flight, quarantining the entire team for two hours

1163
00:55:52,920 --> 00:55:55,279
Speaker 5: in a hotel room, going to the stadium, playing the game,

1164
00:55:55,360 --> 00:55:58,000
Speaker 5: and going back to the airport. That being said, this

1165
00:55:58,160 --> 00:56:00,279
Speaker 5: is the most explosive team on the field. Now, Really

1166
00:56:00,320 --> 00:56:03,400
Speaker 5: the handicap in this game to me, can Chavon Cordero

1167
00:56:03,760 --> 00:56:06,839
Speaker 5: be stopped and designed and scramble rush attempts because he's

1168
00:56:06,880 --> 00:56:09,439
Speaker 5: got about an even distribution in yards and a number

1169
00:56:09,480 --> 00:56:12,160
Speaker 5: of times he's had designed runs and scramble runs from

1170
00:56:12,200 --> 00:56:15,520
Speaker 5: passing attempts. Why he's fifteenth in rush explosiveness and that's

1171
00:56:15,560 --> 00:56:17,680
Speaker 5: all on Cordero. It's not a running back or anything.

1172
00:56:17,760 --> 00:56:19,960
Speaker 5: It's just it's just been him running the ball. This

1173
00:56:20,040 --> 00:56:22,640
Speaker 5: game's at ten o'clock Central time. I would pay attention

1174
00:56:22,719 --> 00:56:25,880
Speaker 5: around eight o'clock on Saturday night. Give your Twitter timeline

1175
00:56:25,880 --> 00:56:29,879
Speaker 5: a little pull check and see who made Boisees travel list,

1176
00:56:30,360 --> 00:56:33,040
Speaker 5: because if there's a bunch of COVID issues, which Harrison

1177
00:56:33,080 --> 00:56:35,680
Speaker 5: said that there was, then that may be a reason

1178
00:56:35,760 --> 00:56:37,840
Speaker 5: that you may want to flip over and play Hawaii.

1179
00:56:37,960 --> 00:56:41,399
Speaker 5: Other than that, you know, Boise, he's running a twenty

1180
00:56:41,440 --> 00:56:43,120
Speaker 5: second in the nation and seconds per play with the

1181
00:56:43,160 --> 00:56:46,640
Speaker 5: go go offense, the game should go over. Can Hawaii hang?

1182
00:56:46,960 --> 00:56:49,360
Speaker 5: It depends on who doesn't make the fly list for

1183
00:56:49,440 --> 00:56:52,120
Speaker 5: Boise going on down to Honolulu. As far as San

1184
00:56:52,160 --> 00:56:55,480
Speaker 5: Jose State goes, yeah, we're talking undefeated wou led by

1185
00:56:55,560 --> 00:56:57,560
Speaker 5: Nick Starkle. My god, of all the things that have

1186
00:56:57,600 --> 00:56:59,600
Speaker 5: happened in twenty twenty, Nick Starkle was leading a four

1187
00:56:59,640 --> 00:57:02,000
Speaker 5: and oh Jose State team. You know, I think people

1188
00:57:02,000 --> 00:57:04,120
Speaker 5: are still down a little bit on Fresno State and

1189
00:57:04,360 --> 00:57:07,959
Speaker 5: they're opening loss, you know, against Hawaii. That's not really

1190
00:57:08,120 --> 00:57:10,680
Speaker 5: a fair judgment of them because they were locked out

1191
00:57:10,719 --> 00:57:13,600
Speaker 5: of their facilities. The team had never met Calen de

1192
00:57:13,680 --> 00:57:16,520
Speaker 5: boor is the new head coach. He didn't really get

1193
00:57:16,680 --> 00:57:18,960
Speaker 5: in tune with the players. So I forgive them for

1194
00:57:19,040 --> 00:57:21,760
Speaker 5: that loss. So why Unfortunately, I don't think betters do.

1195
00:57:22,320 --> 00:57:25,160
Speaker 5: Ronnie Rivers, they're running back. His production is increasing each week,

1196
00:57:25,200 --> 00:57:26,760
Speaker 5: you know, two weeks in a row, over one hundred

1197
00:57:26,800 --> 00:57:29,919
Speaker 5: yards rushing, you know, as San Jose State has taken

1198
00:57:29,960 --> 00:57:32,320
Speaker 5: all the steam here in the market. But they needed

1199
00:57:32,400 --> 00:57:34,920
Speaker 5: three turnovers to beat San Diego State there just by

1200
00:57:35,040 --> 00:57:37,680
Speaker 5: you know, just by under ten ten points. So you know,

1201
00:57:37,840 --> 00:57:40,280
Speaker 5: other games they've had against Air Force New Mexico UNLB.

1202
00:57:40,400 --> 00:57:43,800
Speaker 5: It's just it's not that impressive to me. First, you

1203
00:57:43,880 --> 00:57:46,640
Speaker 5: know they are. Here's the handicap. San Jose State is

1204
00:57:46,640 --> 00:57:49,240
Speaker 5: a pass first team. Nick Starkles throwing at a fifty

1205
00:57:49,280 --> 00:57:52,520
Speaker 5: four percent clip. Fresno is top ten in the nation

1206
00:57:52,840 --> 00:57:56,640
Speaker 5: an opponent passing success rate. I like Fresno in this game.

1207
00:57:57,240 --> 00:57:59,400
Speaker 5: I'm going to be back in the Bulldogs here. I

1208
00:57:59,480 --> 00:58:01,600
Speaker 5: think it's some point you got to take a step

1209
00:58:01,640 --> 00:58:05,280
Speaker 5: back on Spartans and say, you know, it's a mix

1210
00:58:05,400 --> 00:58:08,160
Speaker 5: of schedule, a mix of turnovers. Against San Diego State,

1211
00:58:08,800 --> 00:58:10,680
Speaker 5: I think Fresno's finally coming into their own here.

1212
00:58:11,640 --> 00:58:12,560
Speaker 3: Moving on to the PAC.

1213
00:58:12,520 --> 00:58:16,640
Speaker 6: Twelve, I played to Oregon State, I mean plus three

1214
00:58:16,680 --> 00:58:19,160
Speaker 6: and a half at home Cal last week. They've been

1215
00:58:19,160 --> 00:58:22,880
Speaker 6: dealing with all kinds of COVID issues leading up to

1216
00:58:22,960 --> 00:58:25,560
Speaker 6: last week. Then they played Ucla. You want to talk

1217
00:58:25,560 --> 00:58:27,880
Speaker 6: about the ugliest box score of the year. I mean

1218
00:58:28,040 --> 00:58:29,840
Speaker 6: Cal lost a lot. I mean, but they have an

1219
00:58:30,040 --> 00:58:31,080
Speaker 6: experienced quarterback.

1220
00:58:31,720 --> 00:58:35,760
Speaker 3: Last week Cal against Ucla, Ucla guys not a great defense.

1221
00:58:36,360 --> 00:58:39,200
Speaker 3: Cal last week had one hundred and seventy six total

1222
00:58:39,280 --> 00:58:40,919
Speaker 3: yards there Ever, it's two point eight yards per play,

1223
00:58:41,400 --> 00:58:42,680
Speaker 3: So I think they're gonna be a mess. Other in

1224
00:58:42,720 --> 00:58:45,120
Speaker 3: a short week, so I think that they're gonna be

1225
00:58:45,160 --> 00:58:46,960
Speaker 3: messed out. The same thing could hold true for Utah.

1226
00:58:47,520 --> 00:58:50,200
Speaker 6: USC has been a mess. They barely beat Arizona. They

1227
00:58:50,240 --> 00:58:52,840
Speaker 6: barely beat Arizona State, but Utah has been dealing with

1228
00:58:52,920 --> 00:58:55,000
Speaker 6: COVID issues. Well hopefully, I don't know if this game

1229
00:58:55,080 --> 00:58:57,080
Speaker 6: is gonna get played. They lost ten of their top

1230
00:58:57,120 --> 00:59:01,800
Speaker 6: twelve defenders, eight of which to the NFL eight and

1231
00:59:02,320 --> 00:59:04,680
Speaker 6: a lot of them are playing and playing well. Blackman

1232
00:59:05,240 --> 00:59:08,160
Speaker 6: Johnson in the corner of the Bears, Blackman with the Colts.

1233
00:59:08,200 --> 00:59:09,840
Speaker 6: I mean it lost a ton of town. Now you're

1234
00:59:09,840 --> 00:59:12,120
Speaker 6: replacing Huntley a quarterback and Moss at running back who's

1235
00:59:12,120 --> 00:59:14,480
Speaker 6: also in the NFL. So I think Utah is gonna

1236
00:59:14,480 --> 00:59:16,200
Speaker 6: struggle early with all these COVID issues, and then the

1237
00:59:16,240 --> 00:59:19,440
Speaker 6: Pac twelves just shut down for so long. I might

1238
00:59:19,520 --> 00:59:22,960
Speaker 6: back USC here as bad as they've looked. And then

1239
00:59:23,000 --> 00:59:27,560
Speaker 6: you have Oregon Ucla. Oregon is out to a seventeen

1240
00:59:27,680 --> 00:59:30,720
Speaker 6: point favorite. Jesus, it's steam less times. It's the less

1241
00:59:30,720 --> 00:59:32,360
Speaker 6: time I looked at it over Runners sixty four and

1242
00:59:32,400 --> 00:59:34,200
Speaker 6: a half. Any thoughts in any of those games.

1243
00:59:34,680 --> 00:59:36,280
Speaker 5: Yeah, well, you and I have been here recording on

1244
00:59:36,360 --> 00:59:39,400
Speaker 5: Thursday night that UCLA organ number tumbled from sixty seven

1245
00:59:39,440 --> 00:59:42,600
Speaker 5: down to sixty four. Still searching as for the reason

1246
00:59:42,720 --> 00:59:44,760
Speaker 5: why that would happen, because when you look at these

1247
00:59:44,800 --> 00:59:48,280
Speaker 5: two teams, there's not an issue in scoring points. Organ

1248
00:59:48,400 --> 00:59:51,000
Speaker 5: is connecting on third downs higher than any other team

1249
00:59:51,080 --> 00:59:53,160
Speaker 5: in the country. Right now, they're sixteen to twenty two.

1250
00:59:53,280 --> 00:59:55,760
Speaker 5: That's a seventy two percent conversion rate, better than anybody

1251
00:59:56,800 --> 00:59:59,000
Speaker 5: and Organs won their games and they're minus five and

1252
00:59:59,080 --> 01:00:01,640
Speaker 5: net turnovers. It helps when you have a top ten

1253
01:00:01,760 --> 01:00:04,000
Speaker 5: unit in explosiveness through the ground and through the air.

1254
01:00:04,400 --> 01:00:07,680
Speaker 5: UCLA is one hundred ninth in defending pass explosiveness. You

1255
01:00:07,760 --> 01:00:10,520
Speaker 5: combine that with Oregon's third downs and just this game

1256
01:00:10,600 --> 01:00:12,960
Speaker 5: should have a ton of points in it. Yet the

1257
01:00:13,080 --> 01:00:15,640
Speaker 5: totals breaking four points back. So something's going on that

1258
01:00:15,720 --> 01:00:17,400
Speaker 5: we don't know about yet, so keep your eyes out

1259
01:00:17,440 --> 01:00:19,919
Speaker 5: on that. The question is can UCLA score their share

1260
01:00:19,960 --> 01:00:23,600
Speaker 5: against Oregon. Oregon's defense is one hundredth in defending explosiveness

1261
01:00:23,680 --> 01:00:25,640
Speaker 5: right now, they're one hundred and twentieth in defensive havoc

1262
01:00:26,000 --> 01:00:28,000
Speaker 5: and there's a lot of fresh faces in that back seven,

1263
01:00:28,120 --> 01:00:30,200
Speaker 5: so I think UCLA is going to be able to

1264
01:00:30,240 --> 01:00:33,960
Speaker 5: get their share of points. Oregon's still breaking in that secondary,

1265
01:00:34,880 --> 01:00:37,040
Speaker 5: so I think there's gonna be a lot of points.

1266
01:00:37,080 --> 01:00:38,960
Speaker 5: The market's telling me is there's not going to be

1267
01:00:39,000 --> 01:00:42,720
Speaker 5: as many as I expect, But UCLA I think probably

1268
01:00:42,840 --> 01:00:45,280
Speaker 5: can keep up here because Oregon's defense has just not

1269
01:00:45,400 --> 01:00:47,240
Speaker 5: been the knockout that we thought they were going to

1270
01:00:47,280 --> 01:00:50,000
Speaker 5: be back before the pandemic hit and everybody decided to

1271
01:00:50,080 --> 01:00:52,640
Speaker 5: opt out. I think o're gonna say Cal. I think

1272
01:00:52,640 --> 01:00:54,200
Speaker 5: the same thing. I think it's over there all the

1273
01:00:54,200 --> 01:00:56,040
Speaker 5: way until if the Cal defense proves that they are

1274
01:00:56,120 --> 01:00:59,400
Speaker 5: the CAL defense. Oregon State's offense, I mean they are

1275
01:00:59,480 --> 01:01:01,120
Speaker 5: having no prob ablems moving the ball up and down

1276
01:01:01,160 --> 01:01:04,960
Speaker 5: the field against Washington State. Different kind of defense, but

1277
01:01:05,480 --> 01:01:08,000
Speaker 5: Col's defense it just got done playing on a Sunday

1278
01:01:08,040 --> 01:01:09,960
Speaker 5: morning at nine am local time. Now they got six

1279
01:01:10,080 --> 01:01:12,120
Speaker 5: days to kind of regroup and come back and try

1280
01:01:12,200 --> 01:01:15,120
Speaker 5: to adjust. I select the over in that game too.

1281
01:01:16,360 --> 01:01:21,720
Speaker 3: Sec Hey, keep in mind that Missouri who is going

1282
01:01:21,800 --> 01:01:24,640
Speaker 3: to South Carolina. You might look at that line and say,

1283
01:01:24,840 --> 01:01:28,400
Speaker 3: WHOA Missouri is a six and a half point favorite

1284
01:01:28,400 --> 01:01:31,440
Speaker 3: at South Karet South gunt has two best corners miku

1285
01:01:31,480 --> 01:01:32,520
Speaker 3: Amu and Horne, who will.

1286
01:01:32,360 --> 01:01:34,600
Speaker 6: Play at the next level. They opted out. They also

1287
01:01:34,640 --> 01:01:38,160
Speaker 6: have like running backs practicing at safety. It's a mess.

1288
01:01:38,240 --> 01:01:42,200
Speaker 6: Their coach, muss Chef is gone. There's some quick factor

1289
01:01:42,240 --> 01:01:45,560
Speaker 6: there for South Carolina, quick potential. I should say, then

1290
01:01:45,600 --> 01:01:47,400
Speaker 6: we need to get your thoughts on Arkansas. I don't

1291
01:01:47,400 --> 01:01:49,480
Speaker 6: know if that game is gonna play. I played LSU.

1292
01:01:50,120 --> 01:01:53,280
Speaker 6: I think finally LSU has some value, especially with these

1293
01:01:53,320 --> 01:01:55,320
Speaker 6: concerns with Arkansas. Who knows who's gonna play or not.

1294
01:01:55,440 --> 01:01:56,880
Speaker 6: I don't even know if this game is gonna be played.

1295
01:01:57,120 --> 01:01:58,200
Speaker 6: Call of your thoughts on Arkansas.

1296
01:01:58,560 --> 01:02:00,600
Speaker 5: Let me start with Missouri South Carolina. I think Missouri

1297
01:02:00,680 --> 01:02:02,480
Speaker 5: is the only way to look at especially with drink

1298
01:02:02,480 --> 01:02:04,120
Speaker 5: Wi's trying to get back to three and three, five

1299
01:02:04,240 --> 01:02:07,000
Speaker 5: hundred on the season in South Carolina losing all their players.

1300
01:02:07,040 --> 01:02:08,280
Speaker 5: So that's the way I would look there. It's the

1301
01:02:08,320 --> 01:02:11,240
Speaker 5: only way to play Woo pick suy.

1302
01:02:12,240 --> 01:02:14,800
Speaker 3: Absolute dumpster fined dumps. I don't know how we win

1303
01:02:14,840 --> 01:02:17,120
Speaker 3: a game the rest of the year, just blowing program up.

1304
01:02:17,200 --> 01:02:21,040
Speaker 1: Give us a death sentence Collins talking razorback football.

1305
01:02:22,360 --> 01:02:24,200
Speaker 5: As far as artists on LSU is going to go,

1306
01:02:24,320 --> 01:02:26,160
Speaker 5: I mean, I was prepared to come into this podcast

1307
01:02:26,240 --> 01:02:28,160
Speaker 5: and tell you to throw away all the analytics because

1308
01:02:28,480 --> 01:02:30,760
Speaker 5: you have one team that is hustling their ass off

1309
01:02:30,840 --> 01:02:33,960
Speaker 5: and playing their balls off for their head coach who

1310
01:02:34,080 --> 01:02:36,480
Speaker 5: is returning from COVID. He's going to be on the sideline.

1311
01:02:36,800 --> 01:02:39,760
Speaker 5: They're not very good tackling, they're not very good to

1312
01:02:39,760 --> 01:02:42,800
Speaker 5: play defense. Their offensive numbers are not very good, but

1313
01:02:42,960 --> 01:02:45,080
Speaker 5: they you know, if there was a hustle stat and

1314
01:02:45,160 --> 01:02:46,920
Speaker 5: we can measure it, and it was we could do

1315
01:02:47,080 --> 01:02:49,720
Speaker 5: some mathematics out of it. Artists would leave the nation.

1316
01:02:50,160 --> 01:02:53,080
Speaker 5: They're one of the hardest playing teams out there and

1317
01:02:53,280 --> 01:02:58,520
Speaker 5: LSU is not. There's no question about it. LSU defense

1318
01:02:58,600 --> 01:03:00,000
Speaker 5: was just getting torn up the first couple of weeks.

1319
01:03:00,200 --> 01:03:02,400
Speaker 5: Bo Polini was asked tone it down with the complexity

1320
01:03:02,440 --> 01:03:06,520
Speaker 5: of the defense. They did better against Auburn as far

1321
01:03:06,560 --> 01:03:09,800
Speaker 5: as miss tackles are concerned, but that game was just

1322
01:03:10,520 --> 01:03:15,160
Speaker 5: a bludgeony of Auburn going crazy, especially defensively against you know,

1323
01:03:15,200 --> 01:03:17,600
Speaker 5: the LSU offense just couldn't get anything going with Finley

1324
01:03:17,640 --> 01:03:21,200
Speaker 5: and they looked very, very un LSU like from what

1325
01:03:21,320 --> 01:03:23,040
Speaker 5: we know of last year. But think about this from

1326
01:03:23,080 --> 01:03:25,440
Speaker 5: a psychological standpoint. You have an LSU team that won

1327
01:03:25,440 --> 01:03:28,720
Speaker 5: a national championship, has been dealing with COVID all year,

1328
01:03:28,760 --> 01:03:31,480
Speaker 5: has had a bunch of players opt out, has left

1329
01:03:31,520 --> 01:03:33,600
Speaker 5: the program. You have your favorite coach on offense, Joe

1330
01:03:33,640 --> 01:03:37,400
Speaker 5: Brady take off. You know, Polini's not getting along at

1331
01:03:37,480 --> 01:03:39,480
Speaker 5: least not producing on the field, and that's caused some

1332
01:03:39,640 --> 01:03:42,640
Speaker 5: you know, some strife I've heard from from behind closed doors.

1333
01:03:43,080 --> 01:03:45,800
Speaker 5: And then you look at an Arkansas team with a

1334
01:03:46,120 --> 01:03:48,880
Speaker 5: roster full of players that would die to you know,

1335
01:03:49,040 --> 01:03:51,840
Speaker 5: play for their coach and do everything for their coaching staff.

1336
01:03:52,280 --> 01:03:54,040
Speaker 5: I think the thing that scares me here is that

1337
01:03:54,160 --> 01:03:56,640
Speaker 5: Sam Pittman coming out and saying a couple hours ago

1338
01:03:56,880 --> 01:03:59,680
Speaker 5: before we recorded this, is that we are extremely thin

1339
01:03:59,720 --> 01:04:01,440
Speaker 5: and we'll see how our tests are in the morning.

1340
01:04:01,960 --> 01:04:07,440
Speaker 5: If Sam Pittman could take a one hundred and seventy

1341
01:04:07,560 --> 01:04:10,800
Speaker 5: five pound wide receiver and line him up at nose

1342
01:04:10,920 --> 01:04:13,000
Speaker 5: tackle just to make sure the Hogs play this game,

1343
01:04:13,720 --> 01:04:15,880
Speaker 5: He's going to do it. And that's what worries me

1344
01:04:15,920 --> 01:04:18,160
Speaker 5: about taking I've already taken Arkansas. I've already put money

1345
01:04:18,160 --> 01:04:20,280
Speaker 5: on Arkansas at the two and a half and three,

1346
01:04:20,880 --> 01:04:23,240
Speaker 5: and now I'm a little bit worried that he'll take

1347
01:04:23,280 --> 01:04:25,560
Speaker 5: the Hey'll take the walk on squad. He doesn't care.

1348
01:04:25,800 --> 01:04:28,680
Speaker 5: I don't think he cares. If a unit is completely depleted.

1349
01:04:29,080 --> 01:04:31,240
Speaker 5: He would pull a safety over to play tight end

1350
01:04:31,880 --> 01:04:33,560
Speaker 5: if it means that the Hogs will get to play

1351
01:04:33,600 --> 01:04:35,680
Speaker 5: this game. He doesn't want this momentum to go away.

1352
01:04:36,120 --> 01:04:38,040
Speaker 5: That's what would worry me. With the Razorbacks. I do

1353
01:04:38,200 --> 01:04:40,760
Speaker 5: like the Razorbacks, but man, we need some healthy COVID tests.

1354
01:04:41,520 --> 01:04:43,040
Speaker 3: Well, all right, maybe I'll have to find a way

1355
01:04:43,040 --> 01:04:44,720
Speaker 3: to get out. I'm gonna I kick go against you

1356
01:04:44,720 --> 01:04:47,000
Speaker 3: in Arkansas, all right, and then the last game will

1357
01:04:47,040 --> 01:04:51,200
Speaker 3: go through in the rundown. It's a big one. Coastal Carolina,

1358
01:04:51,280 --> 01:04:52,600
Speaker 3: the number fifteen team in the country.

1359
01:04:52,680 --> 01:04:54,840
Speaker 6: Seven and oh the chances the Triple C dynasty at

1360
01:04:54,880 --> 01:04:56,560
Speaker 6: that MGM four and a half point favorites at home

1361
01:04:56,600 --> 01:04:58,400
Speaker 6: against app State over under forty.

1362
01:04:58,160 --> 01:04:58,600
Speaker 3: Eight and a half.

1363
01:05:00,160 --> 01:05:02,520
Speaker 6: It's all about injury news here with that state. You know,

1364
01:05:02,600 --> 01:05:04,560
Speaker 6: last week they're starting safety Huff was out.

1365
01:05:05,240 --> 01:05:07,480
Speaker 3: He may play. They're starting to right tackle Hodges, he

1366
01:05:07,640 --> 01:05:10,840
Speaker 3: was out. I think he's going to play. They're starting

1367
01:05:10,920 --> 01:05:14,000
Speaker 3: running back, a leading rusher, he's out. And then Zach

1368
01:05:14,080 --> 01:05:16,760
Speaker 3: Thomas was went to the hospital and now all his

1369
01:05:16,840 --> 01:05:20,200
Speaker 3: status he might play. Obviously a big difference whether or

1370
01:05:20,200 --> 01:05:20,880
Speaker 3: not he plays or not.

1371
01:05:21,440 --> 01:05:24,800
Speaker 5: Thoughts on this game, Yeah, I was going to completely

1372
01:05:24,800 --> 01:05:28,120
Speaker 5: stay completely away from this game because of the injuries

1373
01:05:28,160 --> 01:05:30,440
Speaker 5: to app State. And I've said this on the podcast

1374
01:05:30,560 --> 01:05:32,720
Speaker 5: every week that the team that can rush the ball

1375
01:05:32,840 --> 01:05:35,360
Speaker 5: is the team that's going to beat Coastal Carolina. App

1376
01:05:35,400 --> 01:05:37,480
Speaker 5: State runs the ball sixty five percent of the time.

1377
01:05:37,520 --> 01:05:40,000
Speaker 5: They're twenty seventh in the nation and rushing success rate,

1378
01:05:40,400 --> 01:05:41,800
Speaker 5: and a lot of that has to deal with Zach

1379
01:05:41,880 --> 01:05:44,040
Speaker 5: Thomas and what he can do from out, you know,

1380
01:05:44,040 --> 01:05:46,680
Speaker 5: from getting outside of the pocket. So you know, I

1381
01:05:46,760 --> 01:05:50,240
Speaker 5: mean everything from a lineyards perspective, you know, Coastal's eighty

1382
01:05:50,280 --> 01:05:54,080
Speaker 5: second defensive lineyards. App State is twenty fourth. The reason

1383
01:05:54,120 --> 01:05:56,200
Speaker 5: why app State lost to Marshall is because of how

1384
01:05:56,280 --> 01:05:59,120
Speaker 5: stout Marshall is up in the front seven and they

1385
01:05:59,160 --> 01:06:01,520
Speaker 5: just couldn't get anything going in the running game. Coastal

1386
01:06:01,600 --> 01:06:04,480
Speaker 5: Carolina is eighty seventh and tackling. This just was This

1387
01:06:04,720 --> 01:06:06,680
Speaker 5: was a game that I thought app State was going

1388
01:06:06,720 --> 01:06:09,920
Speaker 5: to be able, you know, to overcome this magic that

1389
01:06:10,000 --> 01:06:12,320
Speaker 5: Coastal's had going on. And I'm really happy. I love

1390
01:06:12,440 --> 01:06:14,880
Speaker 5: Coastal and I hate fading them, but a team that

1391
01:06:14,960 --> 01:06:17,480
Speaker 5: can run the ball is going to beat them. This morning,

1392
01:06:17,840 --> 01:06:20,120
Speaker 5: Sean Clark, the head coach, gets on the local radio

1393
01:06:20,200 --> 01:06:23,920
Speaker 5: show and says, oh, Zach Thomas is practicing. He's fine.

1394
01:06:24,200 --> 01:06:26,320
Speaker 5: We don't know if he'll be cleared, but he's fine.

1395
01:06:27,160 --> 01:06:29,920
Speaker 5: Just like well, I mean, Zach Thomas is worth at

1396
01:06:30,040 --> 01:06:32,640
Speaker 5: least four points to the spread better hop in on this,

1397
01:06:32,840 --> 01:06:34,720
Speaker 5: so put a play in and the action app got

1398
01:06:34,760 --> 01:06:37,880
Speaker 5: some money down in the proper places. I'm waiting for

1399
01:06:38,040 --> 01:06:40,800
Speaker 5: the news to basically be confirmed that he is playing.

1400
01:06:41,120 --> 01:06:43,680
Speaker 5: I'd like some health to be there for that state

1401
01:06:43,720 --> 01:06:45,960
Speaker 5: and some other places. If I find out that Zach

1402
01:06:46,040 --> 01:06:48,360
Speaker 5: Thomas is not playing, I will be buying out and

1403
01:06:48,440 --> 01:06:51,720
Speaker 5: coming back on Coastal. Like I said, the whole handicap

1404
01:06:51,880 --> 01:06:54,680
Speaker 5: is can you run? Can you establish a ground game?

1405
01:06:54,760 --> 01:06:57,200
Speaker 5: Because Coastal has not been good at defending the rush

1406
01:06:57,240 --> 01:06:59,120
Speaker 5: and they've not been good one hundred and seventh in

1407
01:06:59,160 --> 01:07:03,080
Speaker 5: the nation defending rush explosiveness. So it's all about Zach Thomas.

1408
01:07:03,160 --> 01:07:05,400
Speaker 5: And I'm gonna have notifications on my Twitter to wake

1409
01:07:05,440 --> 01:07:06,920
Speaker 5: me up at three o'clock in the morning if a

1410
01:07:07,000 --> 01:07:09,560
Speaker 5: notification comes through on him, so that that's really what

1411
01:07:09,640 --> 01:07:12,440
Speaker 5: it's all about here, and I stand by it that.

1412
01:07:12,680 --> 01:07:14,480
Speaker 5: You know, if Coach will even get through this game,

1413
01:07:14,600 --> 01:07:16,840
Speaker 5: that game against Liberty is just bad news from a

1414
01:07:16,920 --> 01:07:17,760
Speaker 5: matchup perspective.

1415
01:07:19,480 --> 01:07:21,840
Speaker 10: Hope you're enjoying this great Action Network podcast. I want

1416
01:07:21,840 --> 01:07:23,960
Speaker 10: to make sure you know about the Locked On podcast

1417
01:07:24,040 --> 01:07:27,320
Speaker 10: network Locked On as a daily podcast on your favorite team.

1418
01:07:27,520 --> 01:07:29,760
Speaker 3: Welcome to you Lockdown forty nine ers, you are locked

1419
01:07:29,760 --> 01:07:30,720
Speaker 3: down of the Dallas matriage.

1420
01:07:30,720 --> 01:07:32,760
Speaker 5: We came, everybody to the Lockdown Lakers podcast.

1421
01:07:32,960 --> 01:07:33,400
Speaker 3: Let's go.

1422
01:07:33,840 --> 01:07:36,720
Speaker 10: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

1423
01:07:36,800 --> 01:07:38,960
Speaker 10: know your team better than anyone and give you the

1424
01:07:39,040 --> 01:07:41,800
Speaker 10: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

1425
01:07:42,040 --> 01:07:46,320
Speaker 10: locked on your favorite team, subscribe to your locked on podcast.

1426
01:07:50,840 --> 01:07:53,080
Speaker 3: Before we get out of here, let's go three and app.

1427
01:07:53,120 --> 01:07:54,960
Speaker 6: But before we do so, one of the remind every

1428
01:07:55,000 --> 01:07:57,760
Speaker 6: one of the details of the Action Network Podcast Tournament

1429
01:07:57,800 --> 01:08:00,240
Speaker 6: of Champions, presented by bet MGM Live.

1430
01:08:00,360 --> 01:08:01,240
Speaker 3: It's been live all year.

1431
01:08:01,240 --> 01:08:03,800
Speaker 6: It's a free weekly YAHOODFS tournament specifically for you our

1432
01:08:03,840 --> 01:08:06,160
Speaker 6: podcast listeners. You can join simply by clicking on the

1433
01:08:06,160 --> 01:08:07,280
Speaker 6: link in our episode description.

1434
01:08:07,680 --> 01:08:08,600
Speaker 3: Top ten weekly.

1435
01:08:08,400 --> 01:08:11,280
Speaker 6: Finishers receive over one thousand dollars worth of Action Our prizes.

1436
01:08:11,440 --> 01:08:14,200
Speaker 6: Top five each week punch their ticket of the Wildcard

1437
01:08:14,200 --> 01:08:16,679
Speaker 6: Weekend Grand Finale, where they'll compete for the grand prize,

1438
01:08:16,720 --> 01:08:19,880
Speaker 6: a Las Vegas trip for two guided over five g's

1439
01:08:20,000 --> 01:08:22,800
Speaker 6: courtesy of BETAMGM, the official odds provider of the Action

1440
01:08:23,000 --> 01:08:23,559
Speaker 6: Ork podcast.

1441
01:08:23,760 --> 01:08:25,760
Speaker 3: Just click on the link in the episode description. All right,

1442
01:08:25,760 --> 01:08:27,360
Speaker 3: before we get out of here. Let's go three and out.

1443
01:08:30,280 --> 01:08:32,320
Speaker 1: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1444
01:08:33,280 --> 01:08:35,280
Speaker 3: All right, we got to cover some Friday night lights.

1445
01:08:36,000 --> 01:08:38,839
Speaker 5: That's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts.

1446
01:08:39,680 --> 01:08:43,880
Speaker 3: Let's play. We have four games on the schedule. I'll

1447
01:08:43,920 --> 01:08:44,439
Speaker 3: mention one.

1448
01:08:44,760 --> 01:08:46,880
Speaker 6: I think maybe the only one I'll be on. U

1449
01:08:47,040 --> 01:08:50,880
Speaker 6: Mass is playing. I actually lean Florida Atlantic. I don't

1450
01:08:50,880 --> 01:08:52,080
Speaker 6: know if I'll play them, but I think I'm just

1451
01:08:52,120 --> 01:08:52,880
Speaker 6: gonna play the under.

1452
01:08:52,880 --> 01:08:54,360
Speaker 3: You. I don't know how U Matt scores. I'm gonna

1453
01:08:54,360 --> 01:08:57,640
Speaker 3: put some UMATS team total under as well at BETGM.

1454
01:08:57,840 --> 01:09:00,680
Speaker 3: Right now, you over unders fifty and a half. I

1455
01:09:00,800 --> 01:09:02,559
Speaker 3: think it is a thirty two and a half point favorite.

1456
01:09:02,880 --> 01:09:05,240
Speaker 3: You have twenty mile an hour wins here. I fat

1457
01:09:05,240 --> 01:09:06,840
Speaker 3: you should be able to run all over UMass. But

1458
01:09:07,160 --> 01:09:08,880
Speaker 3: Jim Levitt, I mean, it's one of the best defensive

1459
01:09:08,920 --> 01:09:11,120
Speaker 3: coordinators in college football. He was at Oregon, was the

1460
01:09:11,160 --> 01:09:13,040
Speaker 3: highest paid, and he just didn't get along with crystal ball.

1461
01:09:13,479 --> 01:09:16,720
Speaker 3: Now he's at Florida Atlantic and he's that defense is tremendous.

1462
01:09:17,080 --> 01:09:20,439
Speaker 3: I don't know how UMAs scores a point outside of Flukes.

1463
01:09:20,840 --> 01:09:23,519
Speaker 3: So I'll be on the under here. With weather and

1464
01:09:23,600 --> 01:09:26,599
Speaker 3: this FAU defense. We have three other games.

1465
01:09:26,760 --> 01:09:29,280
Speaker 5: Anything you want to mention, Well, I'm worried about your

1466
01:09:29,560 --> 01:09:31,920
Speaker 5: under on the UMass Florida Lantic game because it's not

1467
01:09:32,080 --> 01:09:34,960
Speaker 5: outside the rel of a possibility that Floridalantic throws fifty

1468
01:09:34,960 --> 01:09:37,080
Speaker 5: two up after what we saw with Florida International.

1469
01:09:37,200 --> 01:09:41,040
Speaker 6: So I'm gonna I'll have some UMass team total under.

1470
01:09:41,080 --> 01:09:43,519
Speaker 6: It's a little diversify that too, yeah, yeah.

1471
01:09:43,600 --> 01:09:47,639
Speaker 5: Diversify the portfolio with the U MASS medic because Florida

1472
01:09:47,720 --> 01:09:52,160
Speaker 5: Lantic's fourteenth and rushing explosiveness, and it literally could be

1473
01:09:52,360 --> 01:09:54,880
Speaker 5: like you know, there's sixth to drive in. They could

1474
01:09:54,920 --> 01:09:57,960
Speaker 5: be going for their forty second points. So I'd be

1475
01:09:58,080 --> 01:10:00,760
Speaker 5: nervous about that. I mean, it's still Florida Atlantic. They're

1476
01:10:00,760 --> 01:10:02,559
Speaker 5: going to play great defense, but I don't know how

1477
01:10:02,600 --> 01:10:05,040
Speaker 5: you guys scores team total under there for me. Leah,

1478
01:10:05,120 --> 01:10:07,120
Speaker 5: let's start off at the top with you on Friday night,

1479
01:10:07,160 --> 01:10:09,880
Speaker 5: we'll have all these written up. They're already written up

1480
01:10:09,880 --> 01:10:13,120
Speaker 5: and submitted. But you know, Syracuse and Louisville. I took

1481
01:10:13,160 --> 01:10:15,679
Speaker 5: some Louisville today at seventeen and a half. I would

1482
01:10:15,720 --> 01:10:18,880
Speaker 5: play that up probably through until twenty. Too many advantages

1483
01:10:18,960 --> 01:10:21,920
Speaker 5: for Louisville on the defensive and offensive side of the ball. Really,

1484
01:10:21,960 --> 01:10:24,559
Speaker 5: to be more specific, Louisville's number one in the nation

1485
01:10:24,680 --> 01:10:29,080
Speaker 5: and rushing explosiveness. Syracuse is lifeless these days. They are

1486
01:10:29,160 --> 01:10:31,439
Speaker 5: tenth and special teams. Good for Dino Babers there, but

1487
01:10:31,680 --> 01:10:34,559
Speaker 5: that's not going to be enough, I think to stop Louisville,

1488
01:10:34,600 --> 01:10:37,120
Speaker 5: who is at least still playing some ball and being motivated.

1489
01:10:37,120 --> 01:10:40,640
Speaker 5: I'm not sure Syracuse is doing anything Minnesota. I think

1490
01:10:40,680 --> 01:10:42,639
Speaker 5: Minnesota is going to start off kick off the round

1491
01:10:42,720 --> 01:10:44,599
Speaker 5: robin parlay for me. I took them at three, took

1492
01:10:44,640 --> 01:10:47,360
Speaker 5: them again tonight before we started recording. There are some

1493
01:10:47,560 --> 01:10:51,480
Speaker 5: injuries that are not confirmed, but it looks like O'Connell

1494
01:10:51,600 --> 01:10:53,160
Speaker 5: is going to be out at least for this week

1495
01:10:53,240 --> 01:10:55,439
Speaker 5: and maybe for the season with a torn ligament. That

1496
01:10:55,640 --> 01:10:58,400
Speaker 5: is the rumor that's out there floating Rondell Moore yes year.

1497
01:10:58,520 --> 01:11:01,880
Speaker 5: I can't confirm O'Connell's out making the trip. Plumber starting

1498
01:11:01,920 --> 01:11:04,120
Speaker 5: Burtons at number two. I don't think it's that big

1499
01:11:04,160 --> 01:11:05,800
Speaker 5: of a drop off to Plumber. I mean, he got

1500
01:11:05,840 --> 01:11:08,320
Speaker 5: plenty of experience last year. Not much this year, but

1501
01:11:08,360 --> 01:11:09,960
Speaker 5: he got plenty of experience last year and it wasn't

1502
01:11:10,000 --> 01:11:12,479
Speaker 5: that big of a drop off, but there is an

1503
01:11:12,520 --> 01:11:14,840
Speaker 5: emotional thing going on here with Purdue. You just lost

1504
01:11:14,880 --> 01:11:16,599
Speaker 5: a game, You have no chance to win the division.

1505
01:11:16,640 --> 01:11:19,080
Speaker 5: Now you got to go to Minnesota, a team that

1506
01:11:19,439 --> 01:11:21,600
Speaker 5: can run the ball. I mean they at least can

1507
01:11:21,760 --> 01:11:23,680
Speaker 5: run the ball with Abram I mean there, I think

1508
01:11:23,680 --> 01:11:25,920
Speaker 5: they're gonna have lots of success running it. That team

1509
01:11:26,040 --> 01:11:28,160
Speaker 5: is not going to quit on PJ. Fleck. They're just

1510
01:11:28,360 --> 01:11:31,360
Speaker 5: you know, really bad at defense. So that's a spot

1511
01:11:31,400 --> 01:11:33,120
Speaker 5: where I've taken Minnesota in a game that I think

1512
01:11:33,160 --> 01:11:36,160
Speaker 5: should be a pick them. As far as New Mexico

1513
01:11:36,200 --> 01:11:37,720
Speaker 5: and air Force, I can't figure out what's going on

1514
01:11:37,800 --> 01:11:39,519
Speaker 5: with this line. I can't figure out what's going on

1515
01:11:39,560 --> 01:11:41,040
Speaker 5: with all the New Mexico love. It's a game that

1516
01:11:41,080 --> 01:11:42,479
Speaker 5: I think this should be power rated up in the

1517
01:11:42,520 --> 01:11:46,400
Speaker 5: double digits. That thing has crashed down to seven and

1518
01:11:46,439 --> 01:11:47,800
Speaker 5: a half. And I sit here and I stare at

1519
01:11:47,880 --> 01:11:50,840
Speaker 5: New Mexico's numbers and they're, you know, they're not that great.

1520
01:11:51,320 --> 01:11:53,280
Speaker 5: You know, they're outside the top one hundred and sacrate

1521
01:11:53,280 --> 01:11:56,320
Speaker 5: and have a pass explodes from this passing success and

1522
01:11:56,400 --> 01:11:58,080
Speaker 5: none of that matters. And you know, unless it's you

1523
01:11:58,160 --> 01:12:01,639
Speaker 5: can do it against air forces, trip option attack air force.

1524
01:12:01,840 --> 01:12:04,559
Speaker 5: You know, sixth and rushing success in New Mexico's fifty

1525
01:12:04,600 --> 01:12:08,479
Speaker 5: six against rush so and New Mexico's eighty ninth and tackling.

1526
01:12:08,560 --> 01:12:10,960
Speaker 5: So something extra is going on here with this game.

1527
01:12:11,040 --> 01:12:12,320
Speaker 5: You're going to have to do a little bit more

1528
01:12:12,360 --> 01:12:15,360
Speaker 5: of a deep dive on it because New Mexico is

1529
01:12:15,479 --> 01:12:17,760
Speaker 5: taking in enough money to move this thing down all

1530
01:12:17,760 --> 01:12:18,519
Speaker 5: the way to a touch.

1531
01:12:19,120 --> 01:12:20,559
Speaker 3: Yeah, make sure you check out all these right ups

1532
01:12:20,560 --> 01:12:22,960
Speaker 3: on actionwork dot com, the action our cap. Second, now,

1533
01:12:22,960 --> 01:12:25,160
Speaker 3: we got to do our favorite overdogs. Queue the prices

1534
01:12:25,240 --> 01:12:25,759
Speaker 3: right music.

1535
01:12:30,280 --> 01:12:33,880
Speaker 6: First up, Clemson thirty five point favorites at BETMGM at

1536
01:12:33,960 --> 01:12:34,679
Speaker 6: Florida State.

1537
01:12:34,880 --> 01:12:37,679
Speaker 3: Ridiculous Florida State? Is this rock bottom?

1538
01:12:38,240 --> 01:12:38,400
Speaker 4: Uh?

1539
01:12:38,800 --> 01:12:40,280
Speaker 3: Is? The price? Is the price? Right?

1540
01:12:41,120 --> 01:12:41,160
Speaker 4: No?

1541
01:12:41,400 --> 01:12:44,439
Speaker 5: The price is terrible. But Tuba Pardi has now gone,

1542
01:12:44,760 --> 01:12:47,680
Speaker 5: We're back to Travis in a quarterback. They're going to

1543
01:12:47,760 --> 01:12:50,439
Speaker 5: rely only on you know what, rush explosive this and

1544
01:12:50,560 --> 01:12:52,720
Speaker 5: try to expose them. Listen, Clemson is still without their

1545
01:12:52,760 --> 01:12:56,280
Speaker 5: biggest defensive pieces in the linebacker, but Trevor Lawrence has

1546
01:12:56,360 --> 01:12:58,080
Speaker 5: acknowledged the fact that he's not the leader in the

1547
01:12:58,120 --> 01:13:00,720
Speaker 5: Clubhouse for the Heisman. He's coming back this week, and

1548
01:13:00,800 --> 01:13:03,160
Speaker 5: I think the best bet here is to take Clemson

1549
01:13:03,240 --> 01:13:04,920
Speaker 5: in the first half and then just put the game away.

1550
01:13:05,280 --> 01:13:06,880
Speaker 5: It's too many points. I'm not telling you to take

1551
01:13:06,920 --> 01:13:10,800
Speaker 5: Florida State, but I'm telling you, man, push this one

1552
01:13:10,840 --> 01:13:12,559
Speaker 5: off to the side. Don't come on down floy State.

1553
01:13:12,600 --> 01:13:13,759
Speaker 5: We're not buying you at this price.

1554
01:13:14,360 --> 01:13:16,120
Speaker 3: All right, Florida about a thirty one and a half

1555
01:13:16,240 --> 01:13:16,960
Speaker 3: at Vandy.

1556
01:13:17,600 --> 01:13:21,080
Speaker 5: Is anybody seeing that Bandy is like scoring points? Now? Huh?

1557
01:13:21,240 --> 01:13:24,000
Speaker 5: Thirty five points against Kentucky? Where did that come from?

1558
01:13:24,080 --> 01:13:25,920
Speaker 5: One hundred and eighty on the ground against Kentucky, a

1559
01:13:25,960 --> 01:13:29,680
Speaker 5: team that maximizes going up against explosiveness. I think the

1560
01:13:29,760 --> 01:13:31,719
Speaker 5: price is wrong. I think Florida and needs to stay

1561
01:13:31,760 --> 01:13:33,760
Speaker 5: down in Bitterer's row. I think there may be a

1562
01:13:33,960 --> 01:13:36,120
Speaker 5: reason to take a little bit of a Vanderbilt number.

1563
01:13:36,160 --> 01:13:40,839
Speaker 5: Here is Florida's defense legit. Arkansas's offense is no juggernaut. Lastly,

1564
01:13:41,800 --> 01:13:44,240
Speaker 5: we have Georgia twenty four and a half.

1565
01:13:44,479 --> 01:13:44,719
Speaker 3: JG.

1566
01:13:44,840 --> 01:13:47,200
Speaker 6: Daniels going to start twenty four and a half point

1567
01:13:47,240 --> 01:13:49,000
Speaker 6: favorite at home against Mississippi State.

1568
01:13:49,360 --> 01:13:51,920
Speaker 3: Can leach cover again after covering in the first game.

1569
01:13:51,960 --> 01:13:54,200
Speaker 3: He hasn't covered the price right here. Yeah, the price

1570
01:13:54,280 --> 01:13:54,559
Speaker 3: is right.

1571
01:13:54,600 --> 01:13:56,799
Speaker 5: And you could say what you want about JT. Daniels

1572
01:13:57,360 --> 01:13:59,840
Speaker 5: and his regression in his time at USC and how

1573
01:13:59,840 --> 01:14:01,599
Speaker 5: long it's taken him to get on the field here.

1574
01:14:02,080 --> 01:14:04,639
Speaker 5: The fact that they think that he's ready in this spot,

1575
01:14:05,120 --> 01:14:07,639
Speaker 5: they have supreme confidence. They're not going to throw JT.

1576
01:14:07,840 --> 01:14:10,680
Speaker 5: Daniels into a game where they don't think that they

1577
01:14:10,720 --> 01:14:14,840
Speaker 5: can optimize his success and get him to believe in himself.

1578
01:14:15,200 --> 01:14:17,080
Speaker 5: If the coaches believe that this is the spot to

1579
01:14:17,120 --> 01:14:20,599
Speaker 5: get him ramped up, then George's the play, all right.

1580
01:14:20,960 --> 01:14:25,920
Speaker 6: I'll do it for the overdog second down segment. And

1581
01:14:26,040 --> 01:14:27,559
Speaker 6: before we get out of here, we have one last

1582
01:14:27,720 --> 01:14:31,639
Speaker 6: order of business, our underdog money line.

1583
01:14:31,520 --> 01:14:39,920
Speaker 7: Parlay turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for

1584
01:14:40,080 --> 01:14:41,599
Speaker 7: the money line parlay.

1585
01:14:42,920 --> 01:14:43,280
Speaker 5: All right.

1586
01:14:43,360 --> 01:14:45,280
Speaker 3: Last week, it was nice for you to carry me

1587
01:14:45,400 --> 01:14:48,439
Speaker 3: for once. Purdue came up short, Ron Out didn't play,

1588
01:14:48,520 --> 01:14:52,960
Speaker 3: and you cashed in with Nebraska. So let's week before

1589
01:14:53,000 --> 01:14:55,800
Speaker 3: we hit both. Let's try to do it again. I'll start.

1590
01:14:55,800 --> 01:14:59,320
Speaker 3: I'm going with Georgia Southern. They're four point underdog.

1591
01:15:00,439 --> 01:15:04,439
Speaker 6: Army the New Eastern Special on CBS Sports Network plus

1592
01:15:04,520 --> 01:15:05,479
Speaker 6: one sixty five.

1593
01:15:05,720 --> 01:15:10,040
Speaker 3: I just think Georgia Southern is a better version of Army.

1594
01:15:10,080 --> 01:15:11,599
Speaker 3: The two triple option teams.

1595
01:15:12,080 --> 01:15:15,320
Speaker 6: Georgia Southern top twenty five yards per rush on defense,

1596
01:15:15,800 --> 01:15:18,880
Speaker 6: allowing three point five yards per rush Army's three point seven.

1597
01:15:18,920 --> 01:15:19,320
Speaker 3: They're good.

1598
01:15:19,640 --> 01:15:22,200
Speaker 6: Georgia Southern O line number twelve and nine yards, Army

1599
01:15:22,240 --> 01:15:25,759
Speaker 6: forty seventh. Both defensive lines are top twenty in line yards.

1600
01:15:26,080 --> 01:15:28,559
Speaker 6: Very similar teams. I just think Warts is the more

1601
01:15:28,600 --> 01:15:32,640
Speaker 6: talented quarterback and Georgia Southern is more talented backs. So

1602
01:15:33,479 --> 01:15:35,360
Speaker 6: I think this is close to a coin flip game.

1603
01:15:36,080 --> 01:15:40,439
Speaker 6: Look Army six and two, but their wins were against

1604
01:15:40,479 --> 01:15:48,040
Speaker 6: Middle Tennessee State ulm Abilene Christian Citadel by five meet meet.

1605
01:15:49,560 --> 01:15:50,680
Speaker 3: Mercer. That's it.

1606
01:15:51,200 --> 01:15:53,080
Speaker 6: I mean, it does not get any ugler than that.

1607
01:15:53,560 --> 01:15:55,840
Speaker 6: Give me Georgia Southern. Where are you going with?

1608
01:15:56,400 --> 01:15:58,479
Speaker 5: I can't even begin to tell you how excited I

1609
01:15:58,560 --> 01:16:03,120
Speaker 5: am about betting on liberty. I'm jumping on liberty this

1610
01:16:03,160 --> 01:16:06,040
Speaker 5: week against Isey State. We're taking on another acc team,

1611
01:16:06,400 --> 01:16:08,880
Speaker 5: But there are things in the numbers. It's like, you know,

1612
01:16:09,120 --> 01:16:12,840
Speaker 5: got me excited just to bet this game. Malik Willis

1613
01:16:12,920 --> 01:16:14,680
Speaker 5: or quarterback, and the Liberty offense has put up at

1614
01:16:14,760 --> 01:16:17,480
Speaker 5: least one hundred and eighty on the ground against everybody.

1615
01:16:17,840 --> 01:16:19,680
Speaker 5: They have a rush rate of sixty two percent. So

1616
01:16:19,760 --> 01:16:23,040
Speaker 5: it's important to look at NC State and say, well,

1617
01:16:23,120 --> 01:16:25,800
Speaker 5: how are they doing on rush defense? Not too good?

1618
01:16:25,880 --> 01:16:29,240
Speaker 5: The wolfpacker seventieth and defensive rushing success rate fifty fourth

1619
01:16:29,280 --> 01:16:32,360
Speaker 5: in line yard sixty first against ground explosiveness. That is

1620
01:16:32,600 --> 01:16:37,000
Speaker 5: not good because Liberty is going to bring the hammer

1621
01:16:37,080 --> 01:16:40,519
Speaker 5: with quarterback Malik Willis. If you look at NC State's

1622
01:16:40,520 --> 01:16:43,479
Speaker 5: defense also, they're one hundredth in defensive finishing drives and

1623
01:16:43,520 --> 01:16:45,360
Speaker 5: they're one hundred and tenth in tackling. All right, so

1624
01:16:45,400 --> 01:16:48,679
Speaker 5: we've established with the Wolfpack's defense is not very good

1625
01:16:49,120 --> 01:16:51,120
Speaker 5: and they can't tackle and they like to give up

1626
01:16:51,120 --> 01:16:53,680
Speaker 5: explosive plays. Let me give you the stat that, just

1627
01:16:53,800 --> 01:16:58,720
Speaker 5: like you know, crazy Malik Willis averages four point three

1628
01:16:58,840 --> 01:17:03,200
Speaker 5: yards after content act. That's good, But there is a

1629
01:17:03,760 --> 01:17:07,360
Speaker 5: rating out on PFF called elusive ratings, right and ed Is,

1630
01:17:07,520 --> 01:17:10,960
Speaker 5: who is, you know, the most untackable player in college football.

1631
01:17:11,479 --> 01:17:14,920
Speaker 5: He's avoided thirty three tackles all season, all season, thirty

1632
01:17:14,960 --> 01:17:17,240
Speaker 5: three tackles. He's avoided them, so people are having a

1633
01:17:17,280 --> 01:17:20,000
Speaker 5: hard time getting their hands on them. Of all players

1634
01:17:20,160 --> 01:17:23,360
Speaker 5: in college football and FBS that have at least thirty

1635
01:17:23,400 --> 01:17:27,960
Speaker 5: five rushing attempts, Malik Willis has the highest elusive rating

1636
01:17:28,160 --> 01:17:31,759
Speaker 5: of any player in FBS. To give you an idea

1637
01:17:31,920 --> 01:17:35,880
Speaker 5: of how high his elusive rating is, Deeric King on

1638
01:17:36,000 --> 01:17:41,320
Speaker 5: that list ranks seventh. Malik Willis's number is almost double

1639
01:17:41,479 --> 01:17:44,640
Speaker 5: in the rating then seventh place Deerraic King. That's how

1640
01:17:44,720 --> 01:17:49,360
Speaker 5: elusive Willis has been. Liberty continues to not be noticed

1641
01:17:49,400 --> 01:17:52,439
Speaker 5: by oddsmakers. They continue to throw it in our face,

1642
01:17:53,120 --> 01:17:56,439
Speaker 5: ruining my under with Virginia Tech beating ACC teams every

1643
01:17:56,479 --> 01:17:58,880
Speaker 5: time they line up against them. This Liberty team is

1644
01:17:58,960 --> 01:18:01,799
Speaker 5: on a mission, and you Freeze needs a bigger paycheck,

1645
01:18:02,000 --> 01:18:04,560
Speaker 5: a bigger program. South Carolina's just waiting, probably gonna have

1646
01:18:04,600 --> 01:18:07,280
Speaker 5: their eyes on this game. You don't cuss, you don't drink,

1647
01:18:07,640 --> 01:18:08,599
Speaker 5: So what are your vices?

1648
01:18:09,000 --> 01:18:11,839
Speaker 3: I have been known to chew a bit of tobacco

1649
01:18:11,960 --> 01:18:15,000
Speaker 3: when I get a little tired or watching Feel Love It. Yeah.

1650
01:18:15,040 --> 01:18:17,280
Speaker 6: Malik Willis has been amazing. Third in the nation under

1651
01:18:17,320 --> 01:18:20,160
Speaker 6: presser with one hundred and twenty seven point six quarterback

1652
01:18:20,240 --> 01:18:23,160
Speaker 6: rating twenty four to thirty seven, three touchdowns, no picks,

1653
01:18:23,200 --> 01:18:26,360
Speaker 6: eighty two percent adjusted completion percentage under pressure. All right,

1654
01:18:26,560 --> 01:18:29,920
Speaker 6: love it, Liberty, Liberty, Liberty, and a battle triple option

1655
01:18:30,040 --> 01:18:31,200
Speaker 6: teams at noon.

1656
01:18:33,640 --> 01:18:34,599
Speaker 3: That'll do it for us.

1657
01:18:35,040 --> 01:18:37,720
Speaker 6: We'll have written up also on the Action Networkapinectionwork dot

1658
01:18:37,800 --> 01:18:41,320
Speaker 6: Com Jam Packed episode Hope you enjoyed it. Remember smash

1659
01:18:41,439 --> 01:18:45,280
Speaker 6: that subscribe on subscribe subscribe button, Tell a friend, telling enemy,

1660
01:18:45,400 --> 01:18:50,800
Speaker 6: leave a review, giveaways on our football recap review episode

1661
01:18:51,080 --> 01:18:53,559
Speaker 6: on Sunday night, which will be out overnight for your

1662
01:18:53,640 --> 01:18:56,120
Speaker 6: listening pleasure. On Monday next week, we'll have episodes out

1663
01:18:56,160 --> 01:19:00,600
Speaker 6: early for you before your Thanksgiving travels. We'll do all

1664
01:19:00,640 --> 01:19:02,720
Speaker 6: the college football prep and Monday and Tuesday or someone

1665
01:19:02,720 --> 01:19:05,840
Speaker 6: I'll try to do college basketball prep as well, which

1666
01:19:05,880 --> 01:19:08,240
Speaker 6: starts Wednesday. It's a crazy week. I gotta go back

1667
01:19:08,240 --> 01:19:10,479
Speaker 6: and get back to work, so does Colin. Thanks for listening.

1668
01:19:10,520 --> 01:19:11,280
Speaker 6: We'll catch you all aid.

1669
01:19:11,479 --> 01:19:22,160
Speaker 3: Cheers. He's out. We're finished talking.