WEBVTT - Egg Is My Option

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<v Speaker 1>Broadcasting live from the Abraham Lincoln Radio Studio at the

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<v Speaker 1>George Washington Broadcast Center.

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<v Speaker 2>Jack Armstrong and Joe Getty.

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<v Speaker 3>Armstrong and Getty. And now, here's Armstrong and Getty.

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<v Speaker 4>El-Sayed spent the day with progressive Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren,

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<v Speaker 4>pushing their common message of Medicare for all and higher

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<v Speaker 4>taxes on millionaires and billionaires, all one day after Congresswoman

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<v Speaker 4>Haley Stevens, who lost the Democratic nomination by less than.

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<v Speaker 3>A percentage point to El-Sayed.

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<v Speaker 4>Flipped her endorsement to Republican Mike Rogers over Elside's stance

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<v Speaker 4>towards Israel. Elside's campaign says it raised nearly two and

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<v Speaker 4>a half million dollars yesterday after the Stevens announcement.

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<v Speaker 5>It shouldn't be this hard to pay your taxes and

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<v Speaker 5>know that that money is going to be spent on.

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<v Speaker 1>You and your kids instead of dropping bombs on somebody

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<v Speaker 1>else and their kids.

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<v Speaker 3>Shouldn't be this hard. OK, I don't know. It was that.

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<v Speaker 6>Him referencing that ad, they got so much attention. I mean,

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<v Speaker 6>in that ad, they specifically talk about dropping bombs on

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<v Speaker 6>other countries is why things are so expensive, and that was.

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<v Speaker 7>Well, yeah, that ad paraphrased his campaign, which is why,

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<v Speaker 7>I mean, he made like a weak disavowal of it,

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<v Speaker 7>but no, why would he?

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<v Speaker 3>That's his campaign.

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<v Speaker 6>Wow, that's the one thing I'm staying up for tonight

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<v Speaker 6>is to watch his acceptance speech if he wins.

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<v Speaker 7>Speaking of Al-Sayed, this is brand new.

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<v Speaker 3>John Fetterman, 45.

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<v Speaker 8>I mean, he's absolutely pro-Iran and Hamas. I mean, he

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<v Speaker 8>even said he wants to define the police. And he's

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<v Speaker 8>in a spiritual union with Hassan Piker, who really thinks

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<v Speaker 8>that we deserve 9-11. I mean, so overall, I don't

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<v Speaker 8>get along with communists and socialists and people that hate

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<v Speaker 8>America or people that pick on women, you know, like El-Sayed.

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<v Speaker 6>They're going to be caucusing together if El-Sayed wins. And

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<v Speaker 6>have there ever been in either party in my lifetime?

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<v Speaker 6>A couple of people who would hate each other as

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<v Speaker 6>much as those two were outside of like a personal grudge. Uh,

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<v Speaker 6>I can't think of maybe back in the day when

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<v Speaker 6>you had the, um, hardcore racists that were still in

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<v Speaker 6>the Senate that didn't want black people to get to

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<v Speaker 6>vote or anything like that. That might be the only

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<v Speaker 6>other as far back as you'd have to go to

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<v Speaker 6>where you got that sort of thing.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 7>Fetterman is going to be a, uh, a very, very

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<v Speaker 7>welcome thorn in El Sayed side. If indeed El Sayed

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<v Speaker 7>wins tonight. Um, An outcome I despise even thinking about.

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<v Speaker 6>Here's the latest from somebody who knows what the private

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<v Speaker 6>polling is. Mark Halperin on his show today. The private

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<v Speaker 6>polling is within the margin of error in almost every

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<v Speaker 6>single one of these Senate races everybody's talking about.

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<v Speaker 3>Other than North Carolina.

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<v Speaker 6>So if you think that a single Senate race that's

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<v Speaker 6>currently red is going to flip blue and is a

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<v Speaker 6>sure thing, I would tell you you're wrong. I wouldn't

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<v Speaker 6>say there's a single one that would surprise me if

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<v Speaker 6>it stayed red. Not one, not Ohio, not Kansas, not Texas,

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<v Speaker 6>not Iowa, not Alaska. He didn't mention Michigan. Of course,

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<v Speaker 6>Michigan's already blue. It's the same blue. So that would

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<v Speaker 6>be that. Not one of them would surprise me. In

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<v Speaker 6>the private polling, they've closed up. And what Republicans are

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<v Speaker 6>counting on is that the voters in those states today

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<v Speaker 6>will overcome in some states an early vote deficit and

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<v Speaker 6>Republicans turn out. So when it's this close within the

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<v Speaker 6>margin of error, it could all go one way and

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<v Speaker 6>it could all go the other way and have, you know,

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<v Speaker 6>major difference either way.

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<v Speaker 3>Or half and half.

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<v Speaker 7>Or half and half.

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<v Speaker 3>It doesn't tend to go that way a lot. It

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<v Speaker 3>doesn't seem like.

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<v Speaker 6>With all these close Trump elections. And I've never quite

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<v Speaker 6>understood how this happens, but it's amazing how often a

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<v Speaker 6>whole bunch of different states, counties, districts, whatever, break the

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<v Speaker 6>same direction.

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<v Speaker 3>Like there's a national mood going on. Yeah, yeah.

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<v Speaker 7>Well, throw the bums out. It's definitely the national mood,

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<v Speaker 7>but they're all bums, which leaves you in a bit

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<v Speaker 7>of a spot. Although certainly I prefer free market bums

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<v Speaker 7>to communist bums. You know, an interesting point about all

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<v Speaker 7>this is that the number one issue for a lot

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<v Speaker 7>of people is affordability, inflation. Again, as we pointed out

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<v Speaker 7>last hour, and I've got this somewhere, but corruption, government

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<v Speaker 7>corruption was the number one issue in a recent Fox poll.

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<v Speaker 7>Which I found really, really interesting.

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<v Speaker 6>And were those people polled by Fox thinking about the

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<v Speaker 6>Trump family or the Biden family?

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<v Speaker 3>Or all of the above. Or maybe both. I think

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<v Speaker 3>it should be both.

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<v Speaker 7>And the issue of Congress profiting from stock deals has

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<v Speaker 7>gotten a fair amount of attention.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, of course it should be both. But what's interesting,

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<v Speaker 3>as Greg Hitt points out, is.

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<v Speaker 7>That anybody hoping for a fix for quote-unquote affordability is

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<v Speaker 7>going to be disappointed.

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<v Speaker 3>Because the factors that... Folks, you're about to be more

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<v Speaker 3>disappointed than anybody.

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<v Speaker 6>That's our job. That's what we come into work for

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<v Speaker 6>every single day. What can we do to disappoint people today?

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<v Speaker 7>Joy crushing. That's how I see my job. I see joy.

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<v Speaker 3>I want to crush it.

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<v Speaker 6>Joy crushing. Nothing makes me angrier than somebody who's joyful.

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<v Speaker 3>Oh, please. It's got to be a way to bring

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<v Speaker 3>them down. Yeah, yeah.

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<v Speaker 2>But so.

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<v Speaker 7>What's affecting affordability or what's continuing to stoke inflation a

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<v Speaker 7>little bit? It's mostly the tariffs, which is not helping,

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<v Speaker 7>the war against Iran, necessary or not, that sent energy

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<v Speaker 7>prices higher, and.

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<v Speaker 3>A couple of other things. But it was all done

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<v Speaker 3>by the executive branch.

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<v Speaker 7>Congress didn't vote on any of it, and their avenues

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<v Speaker 7>for overturning it are very, very few. And Greg actually

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<v Speaker 7>goes into the history of Congress's ability to rein in conflicts,

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<v Speaker 7>if you don't want to call it war.

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<v Speaker 3>But it's almost hilarious.

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<v Speaker 7>It's inability to halt the Vietnam War led Congress in

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<v Speaker 7>1973 to pass the famous War Powers Resolution, requiring that

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<v Speaker 7>within 60 to 90 days of committing forces to military action,

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<v Speaker 7>the president either withdraw or obtain congressional authorization. Well, presidents

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<v Speaker 7>have since responded with various claims of complying without an

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<v Speaker 7>actual halt to hostilities. Reagan sent Marines to Lebanon in

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<v Speaker 7>82 through 84, Navy to escort tankers in the Persian Gulf, 87, 88.

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<v Speaker 7>Bill Clinton intervened in Kosovo, Barack Obama in Libya, Iraq

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<v Speaker 7>and Syria, Joe Biden in Iraq and Syria, Trump in Iran.

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<v Speaker 7>Then he said, well, no, because there's that ceasefire. So

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<v Speaker 7>it reset the clock again. And Congress is reduced to

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<v Speaker 7>just sputtering and stamping.

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<v Speaker 3>Their little feet. There's no or else in that thing.

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<v Speaker 3>Or will.

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<v Speaker 2>Right.

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<v Speaker 3>Exactly.

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<v Speaker 7>And the tariff thing, Trump has kind of gone way

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<v Speaker 7>out on a limb on his own. And so here's

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<v Speaker 7>where I crush your hope. So what's left? Redistribution of wealth.

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<v Speaker 7>writing you checks, making you promises, subsidizing things, but because

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<v Speaker 7>other than millionaires and billionaires, which wouldn't cover a tenth

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<v Speaker 7>of the tab, they're unwilling to raise taxes, it's all going.

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<v Speaker 3>To be borrowed from the kids and grandkids. We had

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<v Speaker 3>a good run.

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<v Speaker 6>We're going to talk to Lon He Chen coming up

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<v Speaker 6>here in about.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm going to ask him about monarchy. Monarchy now. 15,

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<v Speaker 3>20 minutes about.

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<v Speaker 6>what starts tonight, which is the presidential race, which is insane,

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<v Speaker 6>but it's true. If it's true, it's true, and it's true.

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<v Speaker 7>But at least you've got the comfort of your loyal dog,

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<v Speaker 7>he says by way of transition. Adding years of happiness

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<v Speaker 7>and health to your dog's life, reversing aging, that's what

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, then watch your dog and see what result you get.

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<v Speaker 6>shinier coat. I want a shiny coat.

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<v Speaker 7>I want that coat to be so damn shiny I

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<v Speaker 7>got to wear sunglasses around my dog, all right?

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<v Speaker 2>Woof.

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<v Speaker 6>You mentioned your shiny coat. I was thinking about my

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<v Speaker 6>hair or lack of it. My oldest is convinced that

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<v Speaker 6>he has my hair genetically and that he will be

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<v Speaker 6>a bald man before he knows it. And he's trying

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<v Speaker 6>to prepare himself emotionally for that result. Trying to convince

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<v Speaker 6>him that my life has not been that horrific because

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<v Speaker 6>of my hair situation. I'm not sure it's held me

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<v Speaker 6>back in any way whatsoever, actually. He's pretty worried about it.

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<v Speaker 6>My dad was bald. Both of my grandfathers were bald.

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<v Speaker 6>And I just assumed my entire life I would be balding.

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<v Speaker 7>And it kind of accepted it emotionally and then haven't.

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<v Speaker 3>So clearly I was adopted.

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<v Speaker 7>Parents should have shopped another couple of minutes at the

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<v Speaker 7>orphanage before they picked me.

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<v Speaker 3>But what are you going to do? Buyer beware. Shopped

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<v Speaker 3>at the orphanage. Anyway. You have thoughts on the balding conversation?

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<v Speaker 7>I do.

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<v Speaker 6>Let your son know that bald is in right now.

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<v Speaker 3>With the ladies. Well, like I said, I don't feel

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<v Speaker 3>like it's held me back in any way. And yeah, it.

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<v Speaker 3>Since what? The mid-90s?

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<v Speaker 6>Does Michael Jordan get the credit for being the first

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<v Speaker 6>person to shave their head and really make it mainstream?

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<v Speaker 3>But anyway, after it went mainstream to shave your head

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<v Speaker 3>if you don't have much hair, it doesn't matter anymore.

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<v Speaker 7>And being behaired isn't a drawback either.

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<v Speaker 2>No.

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<v Speaker 3>You can't lose.

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<v Speaker 1>No.

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, I don't think it's that big a deal. I mean,

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<v Speaker 6>if you want to have options, I do tell my

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<v Speaker 6>kids that. Like, my youngest has got serious rock and

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<v Speaker 6>roll hair and just fantastic hair.

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<v Speaker 3>And where's the bustling? So he's got options. I've never

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<v Speaker 3>had options.

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<v Speaker 7>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>My option is this.

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<v Speaker 2>Egg.

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<v Speaker 3>Egg is my option.

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<v Speaker 7>And you can't afford eggs because we're bombing the Palestinians

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<v Speaker 7>thanks to the Jews.

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<v Speaker 3>That's what I hear.

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<v Speaker 2>Wow.

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<v Speaker 3>Um, Where do you go from there?

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<v Speaker 6>They say that the baldness comes from your mom's side.

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<v Speaker 6>I mean, that's the old saw, right?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah. Get a new saw. Go down to the Home Depot.

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<v Speaker 6>But all the men in my family look exactly the same. Me,

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<v Speaker 6>my brother, my dad, his dad, his brothers all look

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<v Speaker 6>exactly the same. Same hair exactly. So you can say

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<v Speaker 6>it came from mom, but I don't know. There's three

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<v Speaker 6>generations there and all going through the man.

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<v Speaker 3>So if your mom's bald, you'll be bald? That's what

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<v Speaker 3>they claim. It's all bull crap. I think it is

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<v Speaker 3>bull crap. Nobody's sure. Nobody knows.

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<v Speaker 2>She's an egg.

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<v Speaker 3>I remember. Bald as an egg.

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<v Speaker 6>We will talk to Lon He Chen coming up in

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<v Speaker 6>a little bit about where things are. He's actually one

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<v Speaker 6>of the smartest political pundits out there. He worked on

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<v Speaker 6>Rubio's campaign back in the day when Rubio was running

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<v Speaker 6>against Trump in 2016. So he probably has a soft

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<v Speaker 6>spot for Rubio. I definitely have a soft spot for

0:11:47.590 --> 0:11:50.589
<v Speaker 6>Rubio running for president. I hate the fact that he

0:11:50.630 --> 0:11:51.990
<v Speaker 6>says he won't run if J.D.

0:11:52.030 --> 0:11:52.270
<v Speaker 2>Does.

0:11:52.970 --> 0:11:54.809
<v Speaker 3>Why'd he do that? I'd have to ask Lonnie that.

0:11:54.830 --> 0:11:56.630
<v Speaker 3>Do you know? Have you had personal conversations?

0:11:56.650 --> 0:11:57.250
<v Speaker 7>I have.

0:11:57.390 --> 0:11:59.490
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I do. I absolutely have an idea.

0:11:59.510 --> 0:12:02.170
<v Speaker 6>I was going to ask Lonnie if he knows, because

0:12:02.190 --> 0:12:05.430
<v Speaker 6>he might actually have corresponded, and then he would tell us,

0:12:05.870 --> 0:12:08.790
<v Speaker 6>sharing their intimate conversations, of course, on the radio show.

0:12:09.030 --> 0:12:12.439
<v Speaker 3>If he doesn't know, I will tell him, because I've

0:12:12.460 --> 0:12:14.480
<v Speaker 3>figured it out. How handy. So lots on the way.

0:12:14.500 --> 0:12:17.680
<v Speaker 3>Stay here. Armstrong and Getty.

0:12:20.390 --> 0:12:23.719
<v Speaker 9>The New York City Marathon on Sunday, more than 60,000 runners,

0:12:23.770 --> 0:12:27.959
<v Speaker 9>and among them, 90-year-old Marty Granoff, who says absolutely everyone

0:12:28.000 --> 0:12:29.340
<v Speaker 9>told him he's nuts.

0:12:29.940 --> 0:12:30.520
<v Speaker 3>But you know what?

0:12:30.580 --> 0:12:33.320
<v Speaker 9>He ran it along with his son and grandson, crossing

0:12:33.340 --> 0:12:34.219
<v Speaker 9>the finish line in.

0:12:34.220 --> 0:12:35.740
<v Speaker 3>Eight hours, 26 minutes.

0:12:35.780 --> 0:12:38.490
<v Speaker 9>He says age has nothing to do with it.

0:12:39.840 --> 0:12:41.830
<v Speaker 7>It has something to do with it, old man, but

0:12:42.130 --> 0:12:48.020
<v Speaker 7>well done. 90 years old to get Through 26 miles,

0:12:48.070 --> 0:12:50.610
<v Speaker 7>whether you walked, crawled, or jogged is amazing.

0:12:51.110 --> 0:12:52.530
<v Speaker 3>Yes, it's astonishing.

0:12:52.590 --> 0:12:54.570
<v Speaker 7>I walk a couple of miles a day, and if

0:12:54.650 --> 0:12:56.830
<v Speaker 7>I go like an extra mile, I'm tarred.

0:12:58.190 --> 0:13:02.130
<v Speaker 6>I've been running every other day following my close chat

0:13:02.170 --> 0:13:05.410
<v Speaker 6>GBT regimen for my 10K I'm going to run next year.

0:13:05.950 --> 0:13:06.410
<v Speaker 3>Good man.

0:13:06.730 --> 0:13:07.030
<v Speaker 2>Excellent.

0:13:07.050 --> 0:13:09.720
<v Speaker 3>Glad to hear it. Maybe when I'm 90, I'll try

0:13:09.740 --> 0:13:13.020
<v Speaker 3>to run a marathon. It's important to have plans. There

0:13:13.040 --> 0:13:16.359
<v Speaker 3>you go. Put it on the calendar. Probably want an alert.

0:13:16.920 --> 0:13:20.360
<v Speaker 3>Like an alarm? Because it'd be easier to forget. Jeez,

0:13:20.400 --> 0:13:20.960
<v Speaker 3>that's right.

0:13:21.000 --> 0:13:23.460
<v Speaker 6>The alarm goes off. I guess I'm supposed to run

0:13:23.500 --> 0:13:26.320
<v Speaker 6>a marathon. I haven't exercised in 30 years.

0:13:28.160 --> 0:13:28.520
<v Speaker 2>Shoot.

0:13:29.090 --> 0:13:31.290
<v Speaker 7>I should have set the alarm 10 minutes before the event.

0:13:32.550 --> 0:13:37.589
<v Speaker 7>So when can we expect any results? Well, not for

0:13:37.610 --> 0:13:40.570
<v Speaker 7>a while. I'm looking at the map of when you

0:13:40.610 --> 0:13:41.470
<v Speaker 7>get election results.

0:13:41.910 --> 0:13:44.370
<v Speaker 3>And it's so stupid.

0:13:45.340 --> 0:13:49.290
<v Speaker 7>There are, it looks to be, a quick count, 10

0:13:49.290 --> 0:13:52.030
<v Speaker 7>states that will have their results on election night.

0:13:52.090 --> 0:13:53.730
<v Speaker 3>There are 50 states, Joe.

0:13:54.770 --> 0:13:57.690
<v Speaker 7>There are 10 or so that will have their results

0:13:58.010 --> 0:14:03.400
<v Speaker 7>on election night. Oddly, they're all in the eastern half, geographically.

0:14:03.460 --> 0:14:05.860
<v Speaker 7>The country, more or less, Oklahoma, kind of pokes over

0:14:05.920 --> 0:14:07.660
<v Speaker 7>onto the western half, but I don't.

0:14:07.559 --> 0:14:08.260
<v Speaker 3>Know why that is.

0:14:08.660 --> 0:14:11.020
<v Speaker 7>And then you've got states that will have the results

0:14:11.059 --> 0:14:14.679
<v Speaker 7>before noon tomorrow, and they are all in the eastern

0:14:14.800 --> 0:14:19.040
<v Speaker 7>two-thirds of the country. But practically the entire western United States,

0:14:20.180 --> 0:14:24.620
<v Speaker 7>with the exception of Wyoming and New Mexico, they all

0:14:24.660 --> 0:14:25.850
<v Speaker 7>make you wait days and days.

0:14:26.120 --> 0:14:29.310
<v Speaker 6>Okay, well, the two that I'm really most interested in,

0:14:30.570 --> 0:14:32.950
<v Speaker 6>Michigan by far number one, then Texas.

0:14:33.230 --> 0:14:34.670
<v Speaker 3>When does Michigan close their polls?

0:14:35.520 --> 0:14:38.870
<v Speaker 7>Well, I could get into when they close them, but

0:14:38.910 --> 0:14:41.210
<v Speaker 7>what's more important is when you get results, and they're

0:14:41.230 --> 0:14:43.010
<v Speaker 7>both by noon tomorrow.

0:14:43.050 --> 0:14:43.270
<v Speaker 1>What?

0:14:43.470 --> 0:14:47.570
<v Speaker 3>So we might not know if Syed won tonight? That's correct, yeah.

0:14:47.630 --> 0:14:50.270
<v Speaker 7>Unless they do exit polling and projections and stuff like that.

0:14:50.370 --> 0:14:52.630
<v Speaker 7>I don't know how they release results in Michigan, whether

0:14:52.650 --> 0:14:53.250
<v Speaker 7>it's district by district.

0:14:53.270 --> 0:14:56.690
<v Speaker 6>Man, if we're going to find out tomorrow, then all

0:14:56.730 --> 0:15:02.190
<v Speaker 6>the news coverage today is really stupid. Acting like something

0:15:02.250 --> 0:15:02.750
<v Speaker 6>is happening.

0:15:02.970 --> 0:15:06.540
<v Speaker 3>It's not even happening today, let alone... Not even happening tonight,

0:15:06.620 --> 0:15:09.570
<v Speaker 3>let alone now. Yeah.

0:15:09.610 --> 0:15:12.110
<v Speaker 6>Like they've got the clock down in the corner on CNN,

0:15:12.470 --> 0:15:16.050
<v Speaker 6>four hours and 35 minutes until coverage begins.

0:15:16.210 --> 0:15:17.150
<v Speaker 3>Coverage of what?

0:15:18.590 --> 0:15:21.390
<v Speaker 6>Showing pictures of people in line and discussing the same

0:15:21.430 --> 0:15:22.850
<v Speaker 6>thing you've discussed for two months?

0:15:23.350 --> 0:15:23.610
<v Speaker 7>Yes.

0:15:24.350 --> 0:15:25.820
<v Speaker 3>So this is inexplicable to me.

0:15:26.700 --> 0:15:30.760
<v Speaker 7>In South Cackalack, 96% of the votes will be counted

0:15:30.800 --> 0:15:31.380
<v Speaker 7>by midnight.

0:15:32.260 --> 0:15:34.980
<v Speaker 3>At least that's what happened in 2024. 96%.

0:15:34.980 --> 0:15:40.780
<v Speaker 7>In Michigan, it's 46%. Now, they'll both have her done

0:15:40.820 --> 0:15:43.060
<v Speaker 7>by tomorrow at noon, so that's great.

0:15:44.300 --> 0:15:48.490
<v Speaker 6>Here's a question about South Carolina. Do you think in

0:15:48.500 --> 0:15:51.650
<v Speaker 6>her heart of hearts, Lindsey Graham's sister wants to win

0:15:51.710 --> 0:15:53.850
<v Speaker 6>or lose? I'll bet she wants to lose.

0:15:54.370 --> 0:15:57.770
<v Speaker 7>I think she's extremely ambivalent about it. I'll bet she

0:15:57.810 --> 0:16:00.710
<v Speaker 7>goes back and forth wondering how the hell this ever happened.

0:16:00.770 --> 0:16:04.600
<v Speaker 7>If she got to choose, she might choose winning. But

0:16:05.420 --> 0:16:08.590
<v Speaker 7>if she loses, when she gets that word, she is

0:16:08.620 --> 0:16:09.550
<v Speaker 7>going to have relief.

0:16:10.030 --> 0:16:15.170
<v Speaker 6>And not that. What usually happens with politicians, just devastating rejection.

0:16:15.610 --> 0:16:17.170
<v Speaker 6>And what am I going to do with my life now?

0:16:17.250 --> 0:16:20.700
<v Speaker 6>She's not going to have any of that. You are 100% correct,

0:16:20.750 --> 0:16:21.130
<v Speaker 6>I believe.

0:16:21.220 --> 0:16:21.390
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

0:16:21.760 --> 0:16:24.460
<v Speaker 3>I think if you could probe into her.

0:16:24.400 --> 0:16:28.160
<v Speaker 7>Heart of hearts and put a percentage on it, I

0:16:28.200 --> 0:16:29.090
<v Speaker 7>think she wants to win 51-49.

0:16:29.080 --> 0:16:29.220
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

0:16:32.390 --> 0:16:39.830
<v Speaker 7>Anyway, so one more interesting bit of timeline stuff. In 2022,

0:16:39.830 --> 0:16:45.010
<v Speaker 7>the House was called eight days after the election. The

0:16:45.110 --> 0:16:50.330
<v Speaker 7>Senate was called four days after the election. In 2024,

0:16:50.330 --> 0:16:54.790
<v Speaker 7>the House was called eight days later. The Senate was

0:16:54.860 --> 0:16:58.480
<v Speaker 7>called at midnight 06 Eastern on election night.

0:17:00.300 --> 0:17:06.530
<v Speaker 3>So, dunno. We'll call it the way we see it.

0:17:10.020 --> 0:17:13.960
<v Speaker 6>I'm keeping my eye on El-Sayed's acceptance speech if he wins.

0:17:15.320 --> 0:17:15.540
<v Speaker 3>Why?

0:17:15.560 --> 0:17:17.560
<v Speaker 6>I want to know if he's going to try to

0:17:17.660 --> 0:17:20.399
<v Speaker 6>moderate it all or if he's going to think, ah,

0:17:20.540 --> 0:17:21.040
<v Speaker 6>here we.

0:17:20.960 --> 0:17:21.620
<v Speaker 3>Go, bitches.

0:17:23.320 --> 0:17:27.230
<v Speaker 7>No, I still, my theory remains no. As a dedicated Islamist,

0:17:27.270 --> 0:17:29.830
<v Speaker 7>he has a very, very long view. Now, you have

0:17:29.890 --> 0:17:33.270
<v Speaker 7>pointed out that he doesn't seem willing or able to

0:17:33.390 --> 0:17:34.750
<v Speaker 7>discipline himself at times.

0:17:35.080 --> 0:17:35.940
<v Speaker 3>He just can't.

0:17:36.440 --> 0:17:40.159
<v Speaker 7>Like that Ross Dutha interview on 60 Minutes. All he

0:17:40.200 --> 0:17:42.540
<v Speaker 7>had to say was, does Israel, does Palestine have a

0:17:42.540 --> 0:17:42.940
<v Speaker 7>right to exist?

0:17:43.030 --> 0:17:43.220
<v Speaker 6>Yes.

0:17:43.609 --> 0:17:45.550
<v Speaker 3>Does Israel have a right to exist? Yes, of course.

0:17:45.890 --> 0:17:46.250
<v Speaker 3>Both do.

0:17:46.690 --> 0:17:47.350
<v Speaker 2>We need a Tuesday.

0:17:47.609 --> 0:17:48.950
<v Speaker 3>But no, he couldn't.

0:17:48.970 --> 0:17:52.070
<v Speaker 7>No, Israel can only exist if they, and if we

0:17:52.170 --> 0:17:55.260
<v Speaker 7>see this, he just, he doesn't have the discipline. But

0:17:56.060 --> 0:17:59.440
<v Speaker 7>if he is reminded by his imam what's at stake,

0:17:59.480 --> 0:18:02.220
<v Speaker 7>he'll clamp down and continue to pretend to be what

0:18:02.260 --> 0:18:03.250
<v Speaker 7>he's been pretending to be.

0:18:04.830 --> 0:18:07.429
<v Speaker 6>One of the best political pundits in America with all

0:18:07.450 --> 0:18:10.750
<v Speaker 6>the knowledge to back up his punditry. Lon Heachin coming

0:18:10.790 --> 0:18:11.010
<v Speaker 6>up next.

0:18:11.930 --> 0:18:13.090
<v Speaker 3>Armstrong and Getty.

0:18:13.109 --> 0:18:16.210
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I was talking to my daughter who's four years

0:18:16.290 --> 0:18:19.170
<v Speaker 5>old and I said, honey, we're going to start getting

0:18:19.210 --> 0:18:21.460
<v Speaker 5>ready for our toy drive. We try to, you know,

0:18:22.100 --> 0:18:25.020
<v Speaker 5>give some toys to Toys for Tots. We're now in

0:18:25.080 --> 0:18:28.899
<v Speaker 5>November getting ready for Christmas and I'd like you to

0:18:29.119 --> 0:18:31.840
<v Speaker 5>identify maybe a couple toys you'd like to donate here.

0:18:32.060 --> 0:18:34.560
<v Speaker 3>So she brings me two of her brother's toys.

0:18:34.580 --> 0:18:41.780
<v Speaker 5>And I realized that despite my best efforts, ladies and gentlemen,

0:18:41.859 --> 0:18:43.760
<v Speaker 5>I have apparently raised a Democrat.

0:18:45.160 --> 0:18:46.240
<v Speaker 3>Hey, J.D.

0:18:46.270 --> 0:18:49.869
<v Speaker 6>Vance working the room there. He is currently leading in

0:18:49.910 --> 0:18:53.930
<v Speaker 6>the polls. You average all the big polls. Who's going

0:18:53.950 --> 0:18:56.030
<v Speaker 6>to be the nominee for president for Republican?

0:18:56.070 --> 0:18:56.350
<v Speaker 2>J.D.

0:18:56.369 --> 0:18:57.970
<v Speaker 6>Vance is in the lead by quite a bit. On

0:18:57.990 --> 0:19:00.100
<v Speaker 6>the Democratic side, it's Kamala Harris. So it's going to

0:19:00.119 --> 0:19:03.399
<v Speaker 6>be J.D. Vance versus Kamala Harris for 2028 for president,

0:19:03.440 --> 0:19:06.030
<v Speaker 6>except for these early polls are always, always wrong.

0:19:08.260 --> 0:19:12.300
<v Speaker 7>Oh boy, to discuss this and much, much more, Lonnie Chen,

0:19:12.340 --> 0:19:15.190
<v Speaker 7>David and Diane Steffi Fellow in American Public Policy Studies

0:19:15.270 --> 0:19:18.290
<v Speaker 7>at the Hoover Institution. Lonnie's also the Director of Domestic

0:19:18.310 --> 0:19:21.030
<v Speaker 7>Policy Studies at Stanford University, and he joins us now.

0:19:21.070 --> 0:19:21.990
<v Speaker 3>Lonnie, how are you, sir?

0:19:22.830 --> 0:19:24.530
<v Speaker 2>I'm doing well. Great to be with you both on

0:19:24.570 --> 0:19:25.090
<v Speaker 2>Election Day.

0:19:25.250 --> 0:19:27.820
<v Speaker 6>So here's our theory in talking to you, because we're

0:19:27.840 --> 0:19:29.399
<v Speaker 6>going to have you on tomorrow when we'll actually have

0:19:29.440 --> 0:19:31.219
<v Speaker 6>some results to talk about. But since we ain't got

0:19:31.260 --> 0:19:33.440
<v Speaker 6>no results today, thought we thought maybe we'd talk about

0:19:34.300 --> 0:19:37.619
<v Speaker 6>The presidential election, which I'm told kicks off tonight when

0:19:37.660 --> 0:19:38.330
<v Speaker 6>the polls close.

0:19:38.350 --> 0:19:39.630
<v Speaker 3>So let's start with the premise.

0:19:39.910 --> 0:19:42.629
<v Speaker 6>All the pundits out there that say the race for

0:19:42.630 --> 0:19:45.790
<v Speaker 6>2028 for the presidency begins tonight.

0:19:45.850 --> 0:19:46.330
<v Speaker 3>Is that true?

0:19:47.690 --> 0:19:51.090
<v Speaker 2>The race for the 2028 presidency began. two years ago.

0:19:52.510 --> 0:19:54.970
<v Speaker 2>It's just that we'll see it bubble up, you know,

0:19:55.020 --> 0:19:57.620
<v Speaker 2>beyond the surface tonight. I mean, the funny thing is

0:19:58.700 --> 0:20:01.840
<v Speaker 2>you interview not you, but the media has interviewed all

0:20:01.880 --> 0:20:03.699
<v Speaker 2>of these people who are probably going to run and

0:20:03.720 --> 0:20:07.950
<v Speaker 2>they've had to basically not say they're running. But somehow

0:20:08.030 --> 0:20:11.250
<v Speaker 2>it becomes acceptable starting tomorrow for them to say they

0:20:11.310 --> 0:20:14.490
<v Speaker 2>are running. And this stupid charade we play in American

0:20:14.530 --> 0:20:17.850
<v Speaker 2>politics where, oh, you know, I'm really focused.

0:20:17.890 --> 0:20:18.620
<v Speaker 3>I heard J.B.

0:20:18.670 --> 0:20:21.280
<v Speaker 2>Pritzker, the governor of Illinois. I'm really focused on the

0:20:21.320 --> 0:20:24.899
<v Speaker 2>people of Illinois. But, you know, at 12.01 a.m. on

0:20:24.960 --> 0:20:28.540
<v Speaker 2>November 4th, my focus will magically change to the American people.

0:20:29.140 --> 0:20:30.080
<v Speaker 3>That's what we're going to hear.

0:20:30.780 --> 0:20:34.940
<v Speaker 2>And it's, you know, any good potential candidate has been

0:20:34.980 --> 0:20:38.770
<v Speaker 2>thinking about this process for years. They've been setting up organization.

0:20:39.210 --> 0:20:41.910
<v Speaker 2>They've been thinking about who they need to hire. They've

0:20:41.930 --> 0:20:44.770
<v Speaker 2>been thinking about what contrast they want to draw. This

0:20:44.830 --> 0:20:47.550
<v Speaker 2>is a multi-year process. And I've been involved in these

0:20:47.890 --> 0:20:50.750
<v Speaker 2>several times over the years where people are thinking about

0:20:50.770 --> 0:20:52.190
<v Speaker 2>whether they want to run for president. And I will

0:20:52.210 --> 0:20:55.070
<v Speaker 2>tell you, it does not magically happen the morning after

0:20:55.109 --> 0:20:57.330
<v Speaker 2>the election. But that's the way that these guys make

0:20:57.369 --> 0:20:58.710
<v Speaker 2>it seem, which is just idiotic.

0:20:59.630 --> 0:21:02.410
<v Speaker 3>Yeah. First of all, congratulations, Lon.

0:21:02.450 --> 0:21:06.250
<v Speaker 7>He in embracing an Armstrong and Getty-esque bluntness describing the

0:21:06.570 --> 0:21:10.760
<v Speaker 7>political scene. We need more of that. So we played

0:21:10.780 --> 0:21:13.200
<v Speaker 7>a little audio of J.D. Vance coming back, and J.D.

0:21:13.260 --> 0:21:18.980
<v Speaker 7>Vance is extremely bright and very, very calculating. And you

0:21:19.020 --> 0:21:21.560
<v Speaker 7>can see the machinations of him trying to hold together

0:21:21.580 --> 0:21:23.960
<v Speaker 7>this coalition and make sure that slice of the pie

0:21:24.000 --> 0:21:26.440
<v Speaker 7>sticks with him, even though they're objectionable to these people

0:21:26.480 --> 0:21:33.060
<v Speaker 7>over there. Is he too, what's the phrase, too smart

0:21:33.119 --> 0:21:36.560
<v Speaker 7>by half? Is he an overthinker or is that what

0:21:36.580 --> 0:21:37.240
<v Speaker 7>you need to be in.

0:21:37.540 --> 0:21:38.160
<v Speaker 3>The modern world?

0:21:39.380 --> 0:21:42.139
<v Speaker 2>I think he is. I don't think he's overthinking it.

0:21:42.180 --> 0:21:44.869
<v Speaker 2>I think he's encountering a very real challenge, which is

0:21:44.960 --> 0:21:48.650
<v Speaker 2>what happens to Trump's coalition after Trump. And it's not

0:21:48.690 --> 0:21:51.840
<v Speaker 2>going to be the same coalition for Vice President Vance

0:21:52.000 --> 0:21:54.280
<v Speaker 2>as it was for Trump. And I think he is

0:21:54.359 --> 0:21:58.340
<v Speaker 2>trying to determine what that coalition looks like. So I

0:21:58.359 --> 0:22:00.159
<v Speaker 2>don't think it's overthinking it. I think it's just a

0:22:00.200 --> 0:22:04.129
<v Speaker 2>massive challenge of what do you do when such a

0:22:04.390 --> 0:22:08.410
<v Speaker 2>significant figure, whether you like him or not— President Trump

0:22:08.470 --> 0:22:11.190
<v Speaker 2>is a significant figure in our politics, maybe the most

0:22:11.210 --> 0:22:15.340
<v Speaker 2>significant figure in recent history. The question becomes, like, well,

0:22:15.359 --> 0:22:17.500
<v Speaker 2>what do you do, right? As a candidate trying to

0:22:17.540 --> 0:22:20.880
<v Speaker 2>succeed him, do you go to the exact same playbook?

0:22:20.940 --> 0:22:23.340
<v Speaker 2>Probably not. So if you have a different playbook, what

0:22:23.359 --> 0:22:25.719
<v Speaker 2>does that look like? Who are you going after? Who

0:22:25.770 --> 0:22:28.790
<v Speaker 2>are the gettable voters? Are there voters who didn't vote

0:22:28.830 --> 0:22:30.990
<v Speaker 2>for Trump that would vote for J.D.

0:22:31.030 --> 0:22:31.310
<v Speaker 3>Vance?

0:22:31.350 --> 0:22:33.330
<v Speaker 2>I think the answer to that is yes. Are there

0:22:33.350 --> 0:22:35.730
<v Speaker 2>voters who voted for Trump who won't vote for J.D.

0:22:35.770 --> 0:22:36.030
<v Speaker 7>Vance?

0:22:36.070 --> 0:22:39.100
<v Speaker 2>There, too, I think the answer is yes. So he's

0:22:39.150 --> 0:22:42.180
<v Speaker 2>got a very challenging task ahead. And I think he's

0:22:42.200 --> 0:22:44.540
<v Speaker 2>trying to figure that out, as pretty much every other

0:22:44.600 --> 0:22:46.840
<v Speaker 2>Republican who might run for president is figuring out, which

0:22:46.880 --> 0:22:49.540
<v Speaker 2>is how do you assemble a coalition? That gets you

0:22:49.560 --> 0:22:52.160
<v Speaker 2>across the finish line in the way that Donald Trump

0:22:52.200 --> 0:22:53.710
<v Speaker 2>got across the finish line. This is not going to

0:22:53.730 --> 0:22:55.950
<v Speaker 2>be the same. I mean, it's extraordinary what Trump did

0:22:56.050 --> 0:22:59.330
<v Speaker 2>winning those Rust Belt states that Republicans had not been

0:22:59.430 --> 0:23:01.869
<v Speaker 2>competitive in for many, many years. Is it going to

0:23:01.890 --> 0:23:04.350
<v Speaker 2>be that formula or is it going to look completely different?

0:23:04.369 --> 0:23:06.340
<v Speaker 2>I think that's the big question we've got to answer

0:23:06.380 --> 0:23:07.320
<v Speaker 2>over the next couple of years.

0:23:07.760 --> 0:23:08.710
<v Speaker 3>Super quick follow up.

0:23:08.900 --> 0:23:10.980
<v Speaker 7>And what I was driving at with the question was,

0:23:11.080 --> 0:23:13.580
<v Speaker 7>if you look at somebody like Reagan, he was not,

0:23:13.600 --> 0:23:18.449
<v Speaker 7>you know, yeah. micro-analyzing the various constituencies that make up

0:23:18.470 --> 0:23:21.350
<v Speaker 7>the Republican or potential Republican voter, he was saying, here's

0:23:21.410 --> 0:23:24.189
<v Speaker 7>a vision, and I think it's going to work. That's

0:23:24.250 --> 0:23:29.590
<v Speaker 7>oversimplifying it, but is there room for a visionary or

0:23:29.710 --> 0:23:33.790
<v Speaker 7>somebody saying, look, I have a plan, let's do this,

0:23:33.910 --> 0:23:36.650
<v Speaker 7>as opposed to, you know, pandering, essentially.

0:23:37.390 --> 0:23:39.310
<v Speaker 2>Well, this is I mean, again, I think this is

0:23:39.350 --> 0:23:42.300
<v Speaker 2>going to be the issue because Republicans have not had

0:23:42.430 --> 0:23:45.320
<v Speaker 2>to be anything other than the party of Trump for

0:23:45.340 --> 0:23:47.140
<v Speaker 2>the last couple of years. And that's had both good

0:23:47.180 --> 0:23:50.910
<v Speaker 2>sides and bad sides. The next Republican nominee is absolutely

0:23:50.930 --> 0:23:52.870
<v Speaker 2>going to have to do exactly what you said, which

0:23:52.910 --> 0:23:56.540
<v Speaker 2>is articulate a vision for what what are the next four, eight,

0:23:56.540 --> 0:24:00.120
<v Speaker 2>12 years look like under Republican governance. And it's not

0:24:00.340 --> 0:24:02.480
<v Speaker 2>it's not sufficient. It's just not going to be sufficient

0:24:02.520 --> 0:24:04.700
<v Speaker 2>to say, well, we're going to we're going to run

0:24:04.720 --> 0:24:07.380
<v Speaker 2>the Trump playbook over again, whether that's a policy playbook

0:24:07.420 --> 0:24:09.200
<v Speaker 2>or a political playbook. It's just not going to work.

0:24:09.300 --> 0:24:11.640
<v Speaker 2>And so that that is going to be the big challenge.

0:24:11.869 --> 0:24:14.770
<v Speaker 2>And the vice president has the opportunity to rise to

0:24:14.810 --> 0:24:17.430
<v Speaker 2>that occasion to say, look, here's here's my vision. Here's

0:24:17.470 --> 0:24:19.830
<v Speaker 2>what I want to do. But I've been saying for

0:24:19.850 --> 0:24:21.590
<v Speaker 2>a long time, guys, I really believe this. This is

0:24:21.609 --> 0:24:24.369
<v Speaker 2>going to be a very crowded field in 2028 on

0:24:24.390 --> 0:24:26.020
<v Speaker 2>the Republican side as well. It's not going to be

0:24:26.040 --> 0:24:28.720
<v Speaker 2>a coronation. That's not how President Trump wants it. And

0:24:28.740 --> 0:24:30.680
<v Speaker 2>there's a lot of ambitious people out there who want

0:24:30.700 --> 0:24:32.340
<v Speaker 2>to raise their profile and want to be in the

0:24:32.380 --> 0:24:33.780
<v Speaker 2>mix and want to be in the discussion for 2028

0:24:33.780 --> 0:24:37.920
<v Speaker 2>and beyond. I think we're headed into a really disrupted

0:24:38.020 --> 0:24:40.850
<v Speaker 2>period of politics where, you know, the left's got their

0:24:40.869 --> 0:24:43.149
<v Speaker 2>own challenges. We can talk about those another time. But

0:24:43.530 --> 0:24:45.590
<v Speaker 2>on the right, the question, the big question is going

0:24:45.609 --> 0:24:49.530
<v Speaker 2>to be, what is that next phase of Republican politics

0:24:49.570 --> 0:24:51.980
<v Speaker 2>looks like? And I don't think it's going to be,

0:24:52.220 --> 0:24:54.520
<v Speaker 2>you know, let's run the Trump playbook again, because that

0:24:54.560 --> 0:24:56.180
<v Speaker 2>was successful for Trump. I'm not sure it's going to

0:24:56.200 --> 0:24:57.500
<v Speaker 2>be successful for anybody else.

0:24:58.140 --> 0:25:00.070
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, I saw Chris Christie was out today saying if

0:25:00.090 --> 0:25:02.330
<v Speaker 6>the Republicans lose big, you got to hang it around J.D.

0:25:02.350 --> 0:25:03.030
<v Speaker 3>Vance's neck.

0:25:03.330 --> 0:25:06.250
<v Speaker 6>And Chris Christie has said he's thinking about running for president.

0:25:06.510 --> 0:25:07.869
<v Speaker 6>So that was taking a shot at the guy at

0:25:07.910 --> 0:25:09.920
<v Speaker 6>the top right now. But so you mentioned something a

0:25:09.940 --> 0:25:12.180
<v Speaker 6>little bit ago, and I did want to get into

0:25:12.240 --> 0:25:15.540
<v Speaker 6>Marco Rubio because he finishes. second or first in all

0:25:15.580 --> 0:25:18.460
<v Speaker 6>these early polls, and you used to work on his campaign.

0:25:18.500 --> 0:25:21.429
<v Speaker 6>But you said you've been involved with people who are

0:25:21.470 --> 0:25:23.330
<v Speaker 6>in that early stage of deciding to run or not.

0:25:23.609 --> 0:25:27.330
<v Speaker 3>But people decide not to run. What causes somebody to

0:25:27.390 --> 0:25:28.550
<v Speaker 3>decide not to run?

0:25:29.690 --> 0:25:33.430
<v Speaker 2>Great question. I think it's a combination of many different things.

0:25:33.570 --> 0:25:36.370
<v Speaker 2>First of all, All of these people who are thinking

0:25:36.390 --> 0:25:39.550
<v Speaker 2>about running for president, they are very keen observers of

0:25:39.609 --> 0:25:42.639
<v Speaker 2>our politics, okay? And they understand what's going on in

0:25:42.660 --> 0:25:46.140
<v Speaker 2>the political environment probably better than most others because they're

0:25:46.160 --> 0:25:48.679
<v Speaker 2>in it every day. And I would say the top

0:25:48.760 --> 0:25:52.850
<v Speaker 2>reason is because they just don't see that they're going

0:25:52.869 --> 0:25:55.969
<v Speaker 2>to be able to win. And they don't see that

0:25:55.990 --> 0:25:58.350
<v Speaker 2>there's a whole lot to be gained from being in

0:25:58.390 --> 0:26:00.730
<v Speaker 2>a process where they don't win. That's not going to

0:26:00.770 --> 0:26:03.430
<v Speaker 2>apply to everybody, okay? There's some people who run just

0:26:03.470 --> 0:26:04.889
<v Speaker 2>because it raises their awareness.

0:26:04.930 --> 0:26:05.429
<v Speaker 3>Al Sharpton.

0:26:06.290 --> 0:26:09.060
<v Speaker 2>Well, or I mean, look at Vivek Ramaswamy. That's a

0:26:09.080 --> 0:26:12.100
<v Speaker 2>good example of somebody, right, who who went from being

0:26:12.600 --> 0:26:15.840
<v Speaker 2>no having no political profile to now being one of

0:26:15.859 --> 0:26:18.980
<v Speaker 2>the final two contenders for governor of Ohio. So I

0:26:19.020 --> 0:26:21.899
<v Speaker 2>think for some people, they look at the environment and

0:26:21.940 --> 0:26:24.520
<v Speaker 2>they would say, you know what? I just don't see

0:26:24.540 --> 0:26:26.580
<v Speaker 2>this happening for me. I don't see it happening for

0:26:26.660 --> 0:26:33.170
<v Speaker 2>fill-in-the-blank party. It is a tremendous expenditure of time, effort, energy,

0:26:33.670 --> 0:26:35.149
<v Speaker 2>and it has to be a labor of love when

0:26:35.170 --> 0:26:35.929
<v Speaker 2>you run for president.

0:26:36.010 --> 0:26:39.689
<v Speaker 6>Is it ever what they tell the media? I didn't

0:26:39.710 --> 0:26:41.460
<v Speaker 6>want to put my family through it or anything like that.

0:26:41.520 --> 0:26:43.840
<v Speaker 2>Of course not. Of course not. I mean, they come

0:26:43.880 --> 0:26:46.399
<v Speaker 2>up with all sorts of great excuses, usually centering around, well,

0:26:46.420 --> 0:26:47.860
<v Speaker 2>I really just want to spend time with my kids

0:26:47.880 --> 0:26:49.179
<v Speaker 2>the next couple of years. And it's like, where were

0:26:49.200 --> 0:26:53.439
<v Speaker 2>you the last 12 years? But I know. I mean,

0:26:53.460 --> 0:26:55.960
<v Speaker 2>of course they're going to come up with an excuse,

0:26:56.140 --> 0:26:59.110
<v Speaker 2>but that is the raw political calculus. And I've been

0:26:59.119 --> 0:27:03.050
<v Speaker 2>around that table when that decision was made to basically go, no, go.

0:27:03.150 --> 0:27:06.950
<v Speaker 2>And you decide, no, we're not going to go. Wow. Because, because,

0:27:07.070 --> 0:27:08.929
<v Speaker 2>you know, all of the data and all the instincts

0:27:08.970 --> 0:27:10.899
<v Speaker 2>tell us this is just not, it's not going to

0:27:10.920 --> 0:27:13.350
<v Speaker 2>be good cycle. And there's a lot of productive ways

0:27:13.380 --> 0:27:14.210
<v Speaker 2>to spend four years.

0:27:14.230 --> 0:27:15.609
<v Speaker 3>That's going to be hard to let go of.

0:27:16.609 --> 0:27:19.920
<v Speaker 2>Very hard, very hard. But, you know, I mean, let's

0:27:19.940 --> 0:27:22.580
<v Speaker 2>just take someone like Rubio as an example, right? Here's

0:27:22.619 --> 0:27:24.820
<v Speaker 2>a guy who's got a tremendous, in my view, a

0:27:24.900 --> 0:27:29.159
<v Speaker 2>tremendous political future ahead. He's a young guy who could afford,

0:27:29.220 --> 0:27:31.810
<v Speaker 2>if he decided he wanted to sit out 2028, could

0:27:31.890 --> 0:27:34.649
<v Speaker 2>very well afford to do that if that's what he

0:27:34.690 --> 0:27:38.409
<v Speaker 2>decided to do. Because he's got the potential whenever he

0:27:38.430 --> 0:27:41.040
<v Speaker 2>decides to do that, you know, to do the run again, right?

0:27:41.560 --> 0:27:44.320
<v Speaker 2>to be extremely formidable. And he's going to make that

0:27:44.359 --> 0:27:48.419
<v Speaker 2>decision on his terms. And I think that there may

0:27:48.440 --> 0:27:50.090
<v Speaker 2>be a few others who fall into that category, not

0:27:50.130 --> 0:27:52.810
<v Speaker 2>a ton, but I think there are people who can

0:27:52.869 --> 0:27:55.350
<v Speaker 2>make the decision to sit this one out and potentially

0:27:55.369 --> 0:27:58.379
<v Speaker 2>be better off. But You know, it's all about what

0:27:58.400 --> 0:28:01.280
<v Speaker 2>do the data tell us? What are the instincts say

0:28:01.320 --> 0:28:03.220
<v Speaker 2>to the person? And yeah, you know, look, there's personal

0:28:03.260 --> 0:28:06.379
<v Speaker 2>considerations as well, because running for president is really, really hard.

0:28:06.740 --> 0:28:09.159
<v Speaker 2>And you've got to be willing to invest all of

0:28:09.220 --> 0:28:11.929
<v Speaker 2>your time, effort, energy, everything else into it.

0:28:12.730 --> 0:28:15.449
<v Speaker 7>We're talking to the fabulous Lanhee Chen of the Hoover Institution,

0:28:15.490 --> 0:28:19.650
<v Speaker 7>Stanford University. Lanhee, I've got a handful of articles assembled here.

0:28:19.670 --> 0:28:23.340
<v Speaker 7>I was thinking about talking about this topic at some

0:28:23.390 --> 0:28:28.290
<v Speaker 7>point today. Colorado's abandoning its fiscal discipline or it's trying

0:28:28.330 --> 0:28:32.290
<v Speaker 7>to pass ballot measures because it's actually been admirably disciplined

0:28:32.790 --> 0:28:35.649
<v Speaker 7>fiscally for a long time. Here's the headline, panic and

0:28:35.970 --> 0:28:38.400
<v Speaker 7>anger spread as Europe's great.

0:28:38.240 --> 0:28:40.959
<v Speaker 3>Pension covenant unravels.

0:28:41.820 --> 0:28:44.660
<v Speaker 7>And then from the Wall Street Journal, where did all

0:28:44.700 --> 0:28:49.090
<v Speaker 7>the fiscal hawks, why did all the fiscal hawks go extinct?

0:28:49.790 --> 0:28:55.470
<v Speaker 7>So my question is, Is fiscal responsibility, sobriety, just pretty

0:28:55.610 --> 0:28:56.850
<v Speaker 7>much dead at this point?

0:28:58.670 --> 0:29:01.980
<v Speaker 2>Oh, I hope not. But I do think politically the

0:29:02.900 --> 0:29:07.620
<v Speaker 2>constituency for fiscal discipline is a lot smaller today than

0:29:07.660 --> 0:29:10.300
<v Speaker 2>it was, you know, let's call it in the late 2000,

0:29:10.300 --> 0:29:13.959
<v Speaker 2>you know, the sort of 2010 to 2012 period when

0:29:13.980 --> 0:29:15.770
<v Speaker 2>the Tea Party was ascended. And that was sort of

0:29:15.810 --> 0:29:18.870
<v Speaker 2>the top issue today. in a lot of ways. Interestingly enough,

0:29:18.910 --> 0:29:21.750
<v Speaker 2>if you ask voters today what their top concerns are,

0:29:22.310 --> 0:29:26.600
<v Speaker 2>deficits and fiscal issues still do make the list. But

0:29:26.620 --> 0:29:28.760
<v Speaker 2>then when you talk about what it would actually take

0:29:28.820 --> 0:29:33.500
<v Speaker 2>to address those challenges, like, for example, reforming Social Security

0:29:33.540 --> 0:29:36.190
<v Speaker 2>and Medicare, people don't want it. They're not interested in

0:29:36.750 --> 0:29:39.570
<v Speaker 2>taking the steps that would actually be needed to curb

0:29:39.610 --> 0:29:43.100
<v Speaker 2>some of our fiscal challenges. But this, to me, is

0:29:43.400 --> 0:29:47.230
<v Speaker 2>the single biggest long-run issue we face in America. We

0:29:47.290 --> 0:29:49.870
<v Speaker 2>have to get this right. And the fact that we

0:29:49.910 --> 0:29:53.600
<v Speaker 2>did not address it back in 2007, 2008, 2009 when

0:29:53.650 --> 0:29:55.920
<v Speaker 2>Obama was president, the fact that we didn't get it

0:29:55.960 --> 0:29:59.220
<v Speaker 2>done then was a big pox on all of our houses.

0:29:59.480 --> 0:30:02.370
<v Speaker 2>And this only gets harder to deal with. The math

0:30:02.400 --> 0:30:05.850
<v Speaker 2>does not get easier. But the constituency, guys, is just

0:30:05.910 --> 0:30:08.430
<v Speaker 2>not there. Politically, it is not popular to sit there

0:30:08.450 --> 0:30:11.770
<v Speaker 2>and argue for entitlement reform. Or to think about how

0:30:11.810 --> 0:30:14.150
<v Speaker 2>we have a tax code that better make sure that

0:30:14.190 --> 0:30:15.800
<v Speaker 2>we are raising the right amount of revenue. I mean,

0:30:15.840 --> 0:30:18.400
<v Speaker 2>these are not discussions people want to have right now.

0:30:18.460 --> 0:30:19.460
<v Speaker 2>And it's unfortunate.

0:30:20.020 --> 0:30:22.660
<v Speaker 6>So name recognition is huge in these early polls. And

0:30:23.020 --> 0:30:25.660
<v Speaker 6>often that person doesn't end up even close to the nominee.

0:30:25.820 --> 0:30:29.330
<v Speaker 6>See Rudy Giuliani or Hillary Clinton, depending on the year.

0:30:31.030 --> 0:30:33.790
<v Speaker 6>But Kamala Harris, is she actually going to put herself

0:30:33.850 --> 0:30:35.570
<v Speaker 6>through this again?

0:30:35.590 --> 0:30:38.910
<v Speaker 3>I can't even imagine who would advise her to do that.

0:30:40.790 --> 0:30:43.600
<v Speaker 2>Honestly, I have no idea. It does not seem to

0:30:43.670 --> 0:30:47.200
<v Speaker 2>me to be smart on her part. I just don't

0:30:47.280 --> 0:30:51.290
<v Speaker 2>think that dog will hunt in 2028. But here's the thing.

0:30:52.650 --> 0:30:56.070
<v Speaker 2>Sometimes for these political figures, what else are they going

0:30:56.090 --> 0:30:58.270
<v Speaker 2>to do? I mean, literally, what else are they going

0:30:58.290 --> 0:31:00.640
<v Speaker 2>to do, right? If they don't run for president, what

0:31:00.660 --> 0:31:02.780
<v Speaker 2>does their life look like? If they're not involved in

0:31:02.820 --> 0:31:07.100
<v Speaker 2>that discussion, do they have any kind of political swag

0:31:07.140 --> 0:31:09.610
<v Speaker 2>at all? And this might be part of her calculus.

0:31:09.690 --> 0:31:12.390
<v Speaker 2>I don't know, frankly, what's animating it.

0:31:12.870 --> 0:31:15.030
<v Speaker 6>There's that old saying about running for president is like

0:31:15.070 --> 0:31:17.310
<v Speaker 6>having sex. You don't do it once and then think, well,

0:31:17.330 --> 0:31:17.770
<v Speaker 6>that was fun.

0:31:17.790 --> 0:31:20.680
<v Speaker 3>No need to do it again. Yeah. It kind of

0:31:20.720 --> 0:31:22.580
<v Speaker 3>compels you to want to try it again. I actually

0:31:22.600 --> 0:31:23.340
<v Speaker 3>haven't heard that one.

0:31:24.100 --> 0:31:25.820
<v Speaker 2>I actually haven't heard that one, but that's pretty good.

0:31:27.280 --> 0:31:32.800
<v Speaker 2>I think that, that she, I just don't know. I

0:31:32.820 --> 0:31:34.930
<v Speaker 2>don't know if it's a lack of self-awareness. I don't

0:31:34.950 --> 0:31:36.630
<v Speaker 2>know if it's just like.

0:31:36.670 --> 0:31:37.170
<v Speaker 3>Why not?

0:31:37.470 --> 0:31:39.410
<v Speaker 2>Why not? You know, why not give it a shot

0:31:39.470 --> 0:31:42.430
<v Speaker 2>because everyone else is, but You know, when the field

0:31:42.490 --> 0:31:44.990
<v Speaker 2>is that wide open, as we're going to see in

0:31:44.990 --> 0:31:48.970
<v Speaker 2>2028 with no, there is literally no contender that people

0:31:49.010 --> 0:31:51.160
<v Speaker 2>would look at and say, that's the heir apparent. It's

0:31:51.200 --> 0:31:52.940
<v Speaker 2>not like on the Republican side where you've got a

0:31:52.980 --> 0:31:55.340
<v Speaker 2>sitting vice president probably is going to run or maybe

0:31:55.380 --> 0:31:58.840
<v Speaker 2>will run. And that looks quite obvious. On the Democratic side,

0:31:58.860 --> 0:32:01.800
<v Speaker 2>it is wide open. And so she probably thinks, you know,

0:32:01.840 --> 0:32:04.170
<v Speaker 2>I mean, everybody looks at it and says, why not me?

0:32:04.970 --> 0:32:08.210
<v Speaker 2>And that's the first question. I mean, if you're advising

0:32:08.230 --> 0:32:11.950
<v Speaker 2>someone who's thinking about running for president, every conversation starts

0:32:11.970 --> 0:32:15.240
<v Speaker 2>the same way. Hey, why not me? Why not, right?

0:32:16.080 --> 0:32:17.800
<v Speaker 2>And so you end up with a bunch of people

0:32:17.860 --> 0:32:19.720
<v Speaker 2>running and you're like, who are these people? Well, the

0:32:19.760 --> 0:32:22.140
<v Speaker 2>reality is that for most of them, it's because they

0:32:22.160 --> 0:32:25.340
<v Speaker 2>have talked themselves into, they have done the opposite of

0:32:25.360 --> 0:32:27.740
<v Speaker 2>what we talked about earlier. Instead of sitting there and

0:32:27.830 --> 0:32:30.010
<v Speaker 2>calmly looking at the data and saying, does this make sense?

0:32:30.140 --> 0:32:31.030
<v Speaker 2>Do we think we're going to win?

0:32:31.050 --> 0:32:31.370
<v Speaker 3>What does the.

0:32:31.330 --> 0:32:34.310
<v Speaker 2>Macro look like? They just say, hey, why not? How

0:32:34.370 --> 0:32:36.130
<v Speaker 2>else am I going to spend my time, right?

0:32:36.150 --> 0:32:38.450
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, blah, blah, blah.

0:32:38.550 --> 0:32:41.190
<v Speaker 7>I'm still a Swalwell man and you can't talk me

0:32:41.250 --> 0:32:41.730
<v Speaker 7>off of that.

0:32:41.790 --> 0:32:45.150
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. That's a rough one.

0:32:45.530 --> 0:32:48.290
<v Speaker 3>That's a rough one. Hey, I'm afraid we're up against

0:32:48.390 --> 0:32:48.810
<v Speaker 3>a break.

0:32:49.210 --> 0:32:51.290
<v Speaker 7>Can't wait to talk to you tomorrow as the dust

0:32:51.370 --> 0:32:53.210
<v Speaker 7>settles a little bit and we actually know something.

0:32:53.250 --> 0:32:56.860
<v Speaker 3>Lonnie Chen of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. Always, Lonnie.

0:32:56.890 --> 0:32:59.340
<v Speaker 3>Thanks a bunch. Great talking to you.

0:32:59.360 --> 0:32:59.430
<v Speaker 2>Yep.

0:33:00.250 --> 0:33:02.910
<v Speaker 7>So our friends at Blue Collar Dollar understand you and

0:33:02.930 --> 0:33:06.180
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0:33:06.300 --> 0:33:11.220
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0:33:11.280 --> 0:33:14.860
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0:33:15.440 --> 0:33:17.830
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0:33:17.890 --> 0:33:20.550
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0:33:23.430 --> 0:33:24.370
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0:33:26.660 --> 0:33:28.340
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0:33:28.380 --> 0:33:31.330
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0:33:31.350 --> 0:33:34.090
<v Speaker 7>they make it easy. Just dial pound 250 on your

0:33:34.110 --> 0:33:36.370
<v Speaker 7>mobile phone and at the prompt say blue collar dollar.

0:33:36.410 --> 0:33:40.190
<v Speaker 7>That's pound 250, then say blue collar dollar. These are

0:33:40.230 --> 0:33:44.190
<v Speaker 7>people who understand you take control of your financial future.

0:33:44.290 --> 0:33:45.290
<v Speaker 3>Blue collar dollar.

0:33:45.330 --> 0:33:48.930
<v Speaker 7>Dial pound 250 and say the keywords blue collar dollar.

0:33:49.340 --> 0:33:51.140
<v Speaker 1>Armstrong and Getty are not clients of Talon. They are

0:33:51.160 --> 0:33:53.800
<v Speaker 1>paid endorsers and receive compensation for this endorsement, which creates

0:33:53.820 --> 0:33:56.720
<v Speaker 1>a financial incentive to promote Talon. Advisory services are offered

0:33:56.740 --> 0:34:01.170
<v Speaker 1>through Talon, LLC, and SEC-registered investment advisor. Learn more at bluecollardollar.com.

0:34:02.830 --> 0:34:03.990
<v Speaker 3>Armstrong and Getty.

0:34:07.650 --> 0:34:10.950
<v Speaker 4>Great clock is getting to zero, and Swift in for

0:34:10.969 --> 0:34:12.090
<v Speaker 4>the touchdown, Chicago.

0:34:12.110 --> 0:34:14.920
<v Speaker 7>Right back to the line, Swift to the edge.

0:34:16.010 --> 0:34:17.460
<v Speaker 2>Touchdown, Chicago!

0:34:18.160 --> 0:34:20.320
<v Speaker 3>Toss to Swift. Up the guts.

0:34:20.480 --> 0:34:23.200
<v Speaker 2>Touchdown, Chicago! He's got three.

0:34:24.480 --> 0:34:27.420
<v Speaker 6>So the Bears are for real, if you're wondering who

0:34:27.440 --> 0:34:28.860
<v Speaker 6>the better teams are in the NFL.

0:34:30.120 --> 0:34:31.870
<v Speaker 3>Swift is a good name for a football player.

0:34:32.010 --> 0:34:34.029
<v Speaker 1>It is. It is.

0:34:34.670 --> 0:34:36.690
<v Speaker 6>So we were just talking, Lonnie Chen, about how the

0:34:36.730 --> 0:34:41.489
<v Speaker 6>presidential race really kicks off out in the open, as

0:34:41.550 --> 0:34:45.770
<v Speaker 6>he pointed out, starting tonight, tomorrow. And they all are

0:34:46.050 --> 0:34:48.150
<v Speaker 6>can admit out loud that they want to be president.

0:34:48.250 --> 0:34:49.850
<v Speaker 3>And that is interesting.

0:34:50.230 --> 0:34:52.489
<v Speaker 6>The people that run that you're just trying to raise

0:34:52.530 --> 0:34:55.120
<v Speaker 6>your name ID, which there are some reports. I heard

0:34:55.140 --> 0:34:56.480
<v Speaker 6>somebody talking about this the other day. I don't know

0:34:56.500 --> 0:34:58.400
<v Speaker 6>if it's true or not, but that's what Trump was

0:34:58.420 --> 0:35:00.960
<v Speaker 6>really up to in 16. It's just like make himself

0:35:01.020 --> 0:35:05.339
<v Speaker 6>even a bigger star, you know, not really with any

0:35:05.400 --> 0:35:06.860
<v Speaker 6>political experience, have a shot at it.

0:35:06.880 --> 0:35:08.620
<v Speaker 3>But I don't know if that's true or not.

0:35:09.700 --> 0:35:09.899
<v Speaker 6>Yeah.

0:35:10.219 --> 0:35:11.600
<v Speaker 7>Well, and I was thinking as we talked, why the

0:35:11.620 --> 0:35:15.700
<v Speaker 7>hell would Vivek Ramaswamy want to be the governor of Ohio?

0:35:15.719 --> 0:35:15.779
<v Speaker 2>Oh!

0:35:16.400 --> 0:35:17.500
<v Speaker 3>Springboard to the White House.

0:35:18.100 --> 0:35:18.170
<v Speaker 2>Oh.

0:35:18.739 --> 0:35:21.509
<v Speaker 3>Has a couple of good years, revives this, that, or

0:35:21.550 --> 0:35:21.890
<v Speaker 3>the other.

0:35:22.050 --> 0:35:25.590
<v Speaker 6>But to get far enough, that's why I was interested

0:35:25.630 --> 0:35:27.710
<v Speaker 6>in asking the question about the people who decide not to.

0:35:27.730 --> 0:35:30.630
<v Speaker 6>I mean, to get far enough that you've got a

0:35:30.710 --> 0:35:33.150
<v Speaker 6>Lon He Chen that you've made contact with and you

0:35:33.170 --> 0:35:35.950
<v Speaker 6>have in a conference room somewhere, and I assume you

0:35:35.969 --> 0:35:39.640
<v Speaker 6>have some money people behind you and a handful other

0:35:40.020 --> 0:35:45.279
<v Speaker 6>policy whatevers. To get that far and then decide no... Oh,

0:35:45.460 --> 0:35:48.020
<v Speaker 6>that's got to be rough. I just can't even quite

0:35:48.080 --> 0:35:48.739
<v Speaker 6>imagine that.

0:35:49.219 --> 0:35:50.970
<v Speaker 7>You know, I've read enough about the mechanics of it,

0:35:51.000 --> 0:35:52.799
<v Speaker 7>and I know you have, too, that I just think

0:35:52.820 --> 0:35:56.930
<v Speaker 7>you get enough red and yellow lights from the big

0:35:56.969 --> 0:36:02.339
<v Speaker 7>donors and the kingmakers and the important governors that. Wait

0:36:02.380 --> 0:36:04.580
<v Speaker 7>a minute, they really are leaning to the other guy.

0:36:04.640 --> 0:36:07.220
<v Speaker 7>Wait a minute, he is too, and he is too.

0:36:07.980 --> 0:36:09.620
<v Speaker 3>Well, there's also the... It accumulates.

0:36:09.989 --> 0:36:13.550
<v Speaker 6>I know of one example where this happened. Haley Barber,

0:36:13.630 --> 0:36:15.969
<v Speaker 6>where is he? Of Mississippi, Alabama, one of those states

0:36:15.989 --> 0:36:18.029
<v Speaker 6>down there. He was going to run for president. And

0:36:18.130 --> 0:36:21.110
<v Speaker 6>one thing you do is you hire an oppo research

0:36:21.210 --> 0:36:24.690
<v Speaker 6>company to do oppo research on you. Dig up stuff

0:36:24.890 --> 0:36:28.049
<v Speaker 6>that you probably know, but wonder if other people know.

0:36:28.070 --> 0:36:29.770
<v Speaker 3>I don't even know how that works. Is this stuff

0:36:29.810 --> 0:36:30.310
<v Speaker 3>you don't know?

0:36:30.410 --> 0:36:30.670
<v Speaker 7>Anyway.

0:36:31.300 --> 0:36:33.200
<v Speaker 6>Whatever came back in the oppo research, he was like,

0:36:33.239 --> 0:36:36.960
<v Speaker 6>I can't run. I can't imagine what that is either.

0:36:37.320 --> 0:36:39.120
<v Speaker 6>They come back with some stuff. Oh, yeah, I forgot

0:36:39.160 --> 0:36:41.310
<v Speaker 6>that night. I have no idea what it is.

0:36:42.130 --> 0:36:44.910
<v Speaker 7>Well, that's why I'm so open about my clown porn addiction.

0:36:45.170 --> 0:36:47.310
<v Speaker 7>I want it just out there so it's old news.

0:36:47.370 --> 0:36:49.200
<v Speaker 7>I'm hanging a lantern on it, as they say.

0:36:50.130 --> 0:36:53.450
<v Speaker 6>Everybody, they're bringing up the same old information that's been

0:36:53.510 --> 0:36:54.810
<v Speaker 6>out there for many years.

0:36:55.410 --> 0:36:59.140
<v Speaker 7>This, again, clown porn, clown porn, clown porn.

0:36:59.540 --> 0:37:04.140
<v Speaker 3>Let's talk about affordability. Exactly.

0:37:05.680 --> 0:37:08.840
<v Speaker 7>Speaking of fiscal matters, and Lon, he agreed there's virtually

0:37:08.880 --> 0:37:11.260
<v Speaker 7>no constituency for fiscal sanity.

0:37:11.950 --> 0:37:13.150
<v Speaker 3>I'm going to convert you.

0:37:13.580 --> 0:37:15.420
<v Speaker 7>This is going to be Saul on the road to

0:37:15.480 --> 0:37:18.279
<v Speaker 7>Damascus next hour. And it's only going to take like

0:37:18.280 --> 0:37:19.300
<v Speaker 7>90 seconds.

0:37:19.440 --> 0:37:21.700
<v Speaker 6>I almost asked Lon He this question. Oh, I don't

0:37:21.719 --> 0:37:23.380
<v Speaker 6>have time to tell you about whether or not Kamala

0:37:23.400 --> 0:37:25.299
<v Speaker 6>is smart or not. I almost got into that, but

0:37:25.320 --> 0:37:26.560
<v Speaker 6>I didn't want to put him in that position.

0:37:28.840 --> 0:37:29.960
<v Speaker 3>Armstrong and Getty.