1 00:00:07,360 --> 00:00:11,039 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. 2 00:00:11,119 --> 00:00:14,760 Speaker 1: I'm Joe Wisenthal, Managing editor at Bloomberg Markets, and I'm 3 00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:18,880 Speaker 1: Tracy Halloway, Executive editor at Bloomberg Markets. So, Tracy, it's 4 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:22,239 Speaker 1: the middle of August and it's about time for a 5 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:25,560 Speaker 1: fun summer episode, don't you think Yes, I think it is. 6 00:00:25,880 --> 00:00:28,840 Speaker 1: You know, everyone's on holiday, people are thinking about going 7 00:00:28,920 --> 00:00:32,640 Speaker 1: to nice places with beaches and pools. Uh, let's let's 8 00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:35,559 Speaker 1: give the people what they want exactly right. Um. You know, 9 00:00:35,600 --> 00:00:42,400 Speaker 1: obviously summer is characterized by pools, hanging out by the pool, barbecuing, grilling, 10 00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:45,920 Speaker 1: stuff like that. And of course there's always a market 11 00:00:46,120 --> 00:00:50,400 Speaker 1: and economic angle to every story. And so today we're 12 00:00:50,440 --> 00:00:52,680 Speaker 1: going to talk about these things that we take for 13 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:55,720 Speaker 1: granted in the summer, and uh, talk about some of 14 00:00:55,760 --> 00:01:00,040 Speaker 1: the underlying fundamentals behind them. So this is essentially the 15 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:03,960 Speaker 1: Markets edition of the Pool Party, or the Pool Party 16 00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:17,760 Speaker 1: edition of the Markets podcast. I should say we're here 17 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:22,400 Speaker 1: with Polly Masson's who wrote a great story, um for 18 00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:27,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg recently about pool toys. And before we get into it, 19 00:01:27,040 --> 00:01:30,440 Speaker 1: I think pretty much anyone who goes on Instagram regularly 20 00:01:30,959 --> 00:01:35,039 Speaker 1: sees lots of pictures of people floating in pools in 21 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:41,120 Speaker 1: these gigantic inflatable doughnuts or inflatable swans or inflatable Floomer goes. 22 00:01:41,720 --> 00:01:44,880 Speaker 1: You certainly see him if you follow Taylor Swift on Instagram. 23 00:01:44,880 --> 00:01:48,400 Speaker 1: And of course there is a huge business behind that, 24 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:50,760 Speaker 1: a lot of money, and we're going to talk to 25 00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:54,960 Speaker 1: Polly about that business. So, Polly Mawson's of Bloomberg, thank 26 00:01:54,960 --> 00:01:57,240 Speaker 1: you very much for joining us. Thanks for having me, guys, 27 00:01:57,280 --> 00:01:59,400 Speaker 1: I would love to talk about pool toys. Great, let's 28 00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:02,120 Speaker 1: get right into to it. So why why is this? 29 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:04,200 Speaker 1: How did this become such a huge thing? How big 30 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:07,480 Speaker 1: is this? Business? Is huge? When I was at the 31 00:02:07,480 --> 00:02:09,560 Speaker 1: New York Toy Fair earlier this year, which was the 32 00:02:09,639 --> 00:02:12,960 Speaker 1: dead of winter, it was snowing outside. Inside the Jabbitts Center, 33 00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:15,360 Speaker 1: they had a huge pool toy display. It was the 34 00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:17,600 Speaker 1: first thing you saw when you walked into toy Fair. 35 00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:21,400 Speaker 1: There was a flamingo that was ten ft high. It 36 00:02:21,440 --> 00:02:24,160 Speaker 1: was beautiful and cost I believe, four hundred dollars, which 37 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:26,600 Speaker 1: is quite the investment for an inflatable pool toy that 38 00:02:26,600 --> 00:02:28,480 Speaker 1: can pop at any moment. Okay, what think of all 39 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 1: the likes on Instagram if you have a ten foot 40 00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:35,000 Speaker 1: inflatable flamingo, that's exactly right. So about two summers ago 41 00:02:35,080 --> 00:02:37,360 Speaker 1: you started seeing them come up on Instagram. But it 42 00:02:37,440 --> 00:02:40,919 Speaker 1: really became the thing to have. When Taylor Swift, when 43 00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:44,040 Speaker 1: she was still with Calvin Harris r I p that relationship, 44 00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 1: she posted a picture of her on a really beautiful 45 00:02:48,480 --> 00:02:52,560 Speaker 1: gigantic swan slash Pegasus. It was very regal looking, it 46 00:02:52,639 --> 00:02:56,320 Speaker 1: had golden wings. People were obsessed with it. And that's 47 00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:58,720 Speaker 1: really where a lot of these things took off, and 48 00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:01,040 Speaker 1: you had a couple of company that really became like 49 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:03,400 Speaker 1: the main go to companies. The biggest one among them 50 00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:06,400 Speaker 1: is Big Mouth Inc. They make about twenty thousand dollars 51 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:11,040 Speaker 1: a day on Amazon just off their inflatable donut one style, 52 00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:15,680 Speaker 1: twenty dollars a day. Wait, this is the pink doughnut. 53 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:18,160 Speaker 1: It looks kind of like the ones that Homer Simpson 54 00:03:18,280 --> 00:03:20,800 Speaker 1: used to eat in the TV series, right, and everyone's 55 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:23,280 Speaker 1: probably seen it at one point or another. That is 56 00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:28,640 Speaker 1: the exact donut. Twenty thousand a day. That's a lot 57 00:03:28,680 --> 00:03:32,560 Speaker 1: of money. Yeah, and that's just off the donut. They 58 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:35,600 Speaker 1: have some other really popular items their Giant Pineapple has 59 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:38,280 Speaker 1: been huge for them this year. They have a flamingo 60 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:42,000 Speaker 1: whose design they've actually copyrighted. It's different from other flamingo floaties. 61 00:03:42,480 --> 00:03:44,960 Speaker 1: So you can imagine how much money they're pulling in 62 00:03:45,160 --> 00:03:48,000 Speaker 1: off of these floaties during the summer. Okay, so with 63 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:53,040 Speaker 1: large amounts of money often comes controversy and conflict and 64 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:56,280 Speaker 1: competition is other people try to get in on the act, 65 00:03:56,400 --> 00:04:01,080 Speaker 1: and the donut in particular seems to have attracted some 66 00:04:01,160 --> 00:04:03,960 Speaker 1: degree of conflict. Walk us through that. Yeah, so big 67 00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:06,480 Speaker 1: Math think which is the big Uno floaties. They have 68 00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:10,240 Speaker 1: found people infringing on their copyright, specifically on the donut, 69 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:13,320 Speaker 1: and they found this on Amazon. They started ordering competitors 70 00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:15,520 Speaker 1: donuts that they were trying to sell off as big 71 00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:18,320 Speaker 1: mouth products, and when they arrived, they were flimsier material 72 00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:22,680 Speaker 1: and perhaps most offensively, instead of having twelve colors of sprinkles, 73 00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:27,720 Speaker 1: they only had four. Oh my god, that's terrible, terrific 74 00:04:28,200 --> 00:04:32,360 Speaker 1: it is to instagram myself with a donut without twelve 75 00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:35,080 Speaker 1: colors of sprinkles and the sprinkles weren't even shaded in 76 00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:39,159 Speaker 1: so they didn't look three d oh my god. Yeah, 77 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:41,560 Speaker 1: So what did they do? When they discovered this, well, 78 00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:44,320 Speaker 1: this was part of two lawsuits that they filed, one 79 00:04:44,400 --> 00:04:48,320 Speaker 1: against an Amazon seller called Floating Panda and another against 80 00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:51,200 Speaker 1: Amazon seller Solo Fleet. They didn't have their real identities, 81 00:04:51,240 --> 00:04:53,680 Speaker 1: so they just filed two suits in Connecticut against these 82 00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:57,240 Speaker 1: Amazon identities, and the lawsuits that big Mouth brought basically 83 00:04:57,320 --> 00:05:01,840 Speaker 1: focused on copyright infringement and a version of fraud. They 84 00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:05,359 Speaker 1: were claiming that these Amazon sellers were selling big Mouth 85 00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:08,760 Speaker 1: counterfeit products under the big Mouth cereal code on Amazon, 86 00:05:09,160 --> 00:05:11,000 Speaker 1: so they were trying to just slip them in as 87 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:14,920 Speaker 1: real products after they actually infringed on their copyrighted designs. 88 00:05:15,440 --> 00:05:19,400 Speaker 1: Now does Amazon have any responsibility here? I mean, it's 89 00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 1: one thing if the donut looks like another donut, but 90 00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:26,080 Speaker 1: if a if a competitor, as big Mouth claims, is 91 00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:30,560 Speaker 1: using their cereal code, is Amazon a totally neutral party here? Well, 92 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:34,159 Speaker 1: Amazon does have fraud protection in place, but they have 93 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:36,280 Speaker 1: to have really student fried protections that kind of are 94 00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:39,200 Speaker 1: a process, because otherwise you'd have a bunch of people 95 00:05:39,200 --> 00:05:41,719 Speaker 1: that are just filing complaints against their competitors because they 96 00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:44,800 Speaker 1: don't want them selling a legitimate product that was vaguely similar. 97 00:05:45,200 --> 00:05:47,320 Speaker 1: So they have to have the product ordered, they have 98 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:50,000 Speaker 1: to prove that it's counterfeit and then they can file 99 00:05:50,080 --> 00:05:52,560 Speaker 1: a valid complaint with Amazon and Amazon can take away 100 00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:55,320 Speaker 1: those products, and big Mouth did do that, but they 101 00:05:55,360 --> 00:05:59,000 Speaker 1: finally were very fed up after these two competitors had 102 00:05:59,000 --> 00:06:02,440 Speaker 1: taken their by box on Amazon, the buy boxes, when 103 00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:04,919 Speaker 1: you go to check out on Amazon, you press by now, 104 00:06:05,360 --> 00:06:08,160 Speaker 1: and there's always a default seller, So there can be 105 00:06:08,279 --> 00:06:11,240 Speaker 1: you know, ten different companies that sell the same floaty 106 00:06:11,320 --> 00:06:14,560 Speaker 1: that's vaguely similar, but whoever has that buy box is 107 00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:17,080 Speaker 1: the one who's getting all the sales. And if Floating 108 00:06:17,080 --> 00:06:20,240 Speaker 1: Panda started undercutting big Mouth by just one penny on 109 00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:24,440 Speaker 1: the price instead of the twenty float, they would take 110 00:06:24,480 --> 00:06:27,120 Speaker 1: over that buy box. And that's what happened, and that's 111 00:06:27,120 --> 00:06:29,760 Speaker 1: when big Mouth started losing twenty dollars a day on 112 00:06:29,800 --> 00:06:32,119 Speaker 1: the donut. So this is where I think it gets 113 00:06:32,200 --> 00:06:35,640 Speaker 1: really interesting because we talk a lot about the importance 114 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:39,400 Speaker 1: of Amazon right now, the dominance of Amazon in markets 115 00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:43,760 Speaker 1: and in business, and the idea that people's business is 116 00:06:43,839 --> 00:06:47,080 Speaker 1: built around what goes into the bye box and they 117 00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:50,200 Speaker 1: can win or lose so much money just based on 118 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:55,599 Speaker 1: one Amazon algorithm is pretty significant. Is cost the only 119 00:06:55,640 --> 00:06:57,920 Speaker 1: thing that Amazon looks at when it comes to the 120 00:06:57,960 --> 00:07:01,160 Speaker 1: buye Box. It's more elaborate than just cost. There's ratings 121 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:03,040 Speaker 1: that go in there, and there's kind of a secret 122 00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:05,800 Speaker 1: Amazon formula they're never going to disclose in full. But 123 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:07,800 Speaker 1: it is also based on what kind of seller you are. 124 00:07:07,839 --> 00:07:09,720 Speaker 1: You know, if you had all one star but you're 125 00:07:09,760 --> 00:07:12,560 Speaker 1: selling products, you're probably not going to make it into 126 00:07:12,600 --> 00:07:14,800 Speaker 1: the buye box. But if you look like a fairly 127 00:07:14,840 --> 00:07:18,040 Speaker 1: legitimate seller and you're selling a less expensive product that 128 00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:20,680 Speaker 1: Amazon believes to be the exact same thing, you might 129 00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:23,120 Speaker 1: find yourself in the buy box and then you're getting 130 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:26,920 Speaker 1: a ton of sales all at once. So what's happening now? 131 00:07:27,160 --> 00:07:30,040 Speaker 1: They filed these complaints, They filed these suits. Has Amazon 132 00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:33,880 Speaker 1: done anything yet? Or can? I are the competitors to 133 00:07:34,000 --> 00:07:37,080 Speaker 1: big Mouth still right there? Well, in this particular suit, 134 00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:39,960 Speaker 1: they didn't file it against Amazon, so Amazon did definitely 135 00:07:39,960 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 1: help them with taking down pictures that they thought were 136 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:44,800 Speaker 1: being used to sell products that more in actually big 137 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:47,760 Speaker 1: mouth products. Amazon has replied to the complaints, but legally 138 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:50,320 Speaker 1: they don't have to do anything here. What did happen 139 00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:52,440 Speaker 1: is that one of these Amazon sellers came back to 140 00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:55,040 Speaker 1: big Mouth after receiving the lawsuit and said, give me 141 00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:57,720 Speaker 1: a week to sell through my product and you'll never 142 00:07:57,800 --> 00:08:01,240 Speaker 1: hear from me again. And big Mouth said, you know, 143 00:08:01,440 --> 00:08:04,160 Speaker 1: that's not a bad deal. They because their whole goal 144 00:08:04,200 --> 00:08:06,280 Speaker 1: here is to make this problem go away. They don't 145 00:08:06,280 --> 00:08:09,280 Speaker 1: want to fight every single person who's selling floaties on Amazon, 146 00:08:09,280 --> 00:08:11,840 Speaker 1: and they understand that competition is out there, and they 147 00:08:11,880 --> 00:08:13,920 Speaker 1: certainly don't want to bring these lawsuits. I mean, they've 148 00:08:13,960 --> 00:08:16,640 Speaker 1: had to actually put two people on staff out of 149 00:08:16,640 --> 00:08:22,000 Speaker 1: a person office just to police Amazon. So for them, 150 00:08:22,320 --> 00:08:24,040 Speaker 1: they just want this to go away, and that's really 151 00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:27,120 Speaker 1: the next legal step here. So what happened with the 152 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:29,760 Speaker 1: other company. They have not replied to the lawsuit, which 153 00:08:29,760 --> 00:08:32,319 Speaker 1: isn't surprising. They don't believe that these sellers are in 154 00:08:32,360 --> 00:08:34,839 Speaker 1: the United States. It's a little harder to track them down, 155 00:08:35,440 --> 00:08:37,760 Speaker 1: and from there a judge can make a ruling on 156 00:08:37,840 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 1: the case, but you never know if there's actually gonna 157 00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:42,200 Speaker 1: be any money collected, especially when this is a four 158 00:08:42,280 --> 00:08:45,240 Speaker 1: million dollar collection of lawsuits. I kind of love that 159 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:48,439 Speaker 1: response from the one company, which is basically like, yeah, 160 00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:51,600 Speaker 1: you're right, we're kind of ripping you off. But let 161 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:53,319 Speaker 1: us just be in business one more week so we 162 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:55,680 Speaker 1: can clear out our inventory and make back our costs, 163 00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:58,160 Speaker 1: and we'll leave. It's like a very sort of free 164 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:02,400 Speaker 1: market cocy in response to dealing with a legal problem, 165 00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:04,280 Speaker 1: and it is kind of win wind seems much better 166 00:09:04,320 --> 00:09:07,800 Speaker 1: than a long protracted legal fight. Absolutely, and you don't 167 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:09,520 Speaker 1: really want to be left with a warehouse full of 168 00:09:09,520 --> 00:09:12,080 Speaker 1: float ees, right. I can't blame them, but think of 169 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:17,920 Speaker 1: the Instagram potential. That's true warehouse full of flamingos and donuts. 170 00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:20,840 Speaker 1: Before we go, there's a fascinating story. What's the big 171 00:09:21,400 --> 00:09:23,560 Speaker 1: what's the big floaty this year? I think the big 172 00:09:23,600 --> 00:09:26,040 Speaker 1: floaty is the Swan. This one is a really big deal. 173 00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:30,320 Speaker 1: It's beautiful. I personally enjoy laying on my Swan. I 174 00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:33,000 Speaker 1: have like five floaties. I feel somewhat biased writing this 175 00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:36,160 Speaker 1: story because I'm really into floaties. Are they all the 176 00:09:36,200 --> 00:09:38,600 Speaker 1: big mouth brand float is? They're not. They're They're a 177 00:09:38,679 --> 00:09:41,400 Speaker 1: variety of floaties, including I bought one an Amazon that 178 00:09:41,480 --> 00:09:43,560 Speaker 1: was kind of crappy, but it was like seven dollars, 179 00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:46,280 Speaker 1: so you know you have to have a weird one 180 00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:49,679 Speaker 1: in there. Polly must Ends from Bloomberg. Thank you, very much. 181 00:09:49,679 --> 00:09:51,800 Speaker 1: That's fascinating. I don't think I'm ever going to be 182 00:09:51,880 --> 00:09:55,160 Speaker 1: able to look at an Instagram pool floating picture ever 183 00:09:55,200 --> 00:09:57,760 Speaker 1: again in the same way. Thank you guys for having 184 00:09:57,760 --> 00:10:13,040 Speaker 1: me well, Tracy. So that was half the summer. Half 185 00:10:13,120 --> 00:10:16,640 Speaker 1: the summer is about spending time in pools, and as 186 00:10:16,640 --> 00:10:18,480 Speaker 1: we said in the beginning, the other half of the 187 00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:24,079 Speaker 1: summer is about grilling and barbecuing. Of course, of course 188 00:10:24,120 --> 00:10:29,520 Speaker 1: it is uh so what's essential to grilling obviously meat. 189 00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:32,160 Speaker 1: And the good news is that at least in the 190 00:10:32,280 --> 00:10:35,920 Speaker 1: US this year, there is a meat mountain. There is 191 00:10:35,960 --> 00:10:39,520 Speaker 1: so much meat out there that the price of ribs 192 00:10:39,679 --> 00:10:43,240 Speaker 1: and beef and pork and everything else has plunged, making 193 00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:47,800 Speaker 1: it really cheap to uh to do barbecue this summer. Okay, 194 00:10:47,800 --> 00:10:50,520 Speaker 1: so summer has essentially gone on sale because we have 195 00:10:50,720 --> 00:10:54,200 Speaker 1: inflatable pool toy makers trying to undercut each other, and 196 00:10:54,240 --> 00:10:56,760 Speaker 1: then we have super cheap meat prices. I love it, 197 00:10:56,840 --> 00:10:58,679 Speaker 1: the summer on sale. It's like, I think that should 198 00:10:58,679 --> 00:11:01,640 Speaker 1: be the time in this episode. Alright, So with us 199 00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:05,959 Speaker 1: now to discuss the meat mountain and super cheap meat 200 00:11:05,960 --> 00:11:09,480 Speaker 1: products is Lydia mulvaney. She's a reporter here at Bloomberg 201 00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:12,920 Speaker 1: who covers agriculture. Lydia, thank you very much for joining us. 202 00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:17,280 Speaker 1: Hi thanks uh so, Lydia. Why is there a mountain 203 00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:21,760 Speaker 1: of meat? Oh, there's so much meat. Um, it's because 204 00:11:22,280 --> 00:11:26,200 Speaker 1: there's been a kind of a perfect storm where like 205 00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:31,360 Speaker 1: chicken producers and hog producers and cattle producers, they're all 206 00:11:31,400 --> 00:11:37,240 Speaker 1: expanding their herds at the same time. And uh, there 207 00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:41,960 Speaker 1: were some record prices for those um for meat a 208 00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:45,320 Speaker 1: couple of years ago, even last year for beef, and 209 00:11:45,440 --> 00:11:49,959 Speaker 1: those high prices just made everyone, um go crazy and 210 00:11:49,960 --> 00:11:52,520 Speaker 1: and expand there and expand their flocks and herds and 211 00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:57,440 Speaker 1: so um, now we have um, like all three important meats, 212 00:11:57,920 --> 00:12:00,240 Speaker 1: you know, a lot of it at the same time, aime. 213 00:12:00,760 --> 00:12:03,040 Speaker 1: And so they're all kind of competing with each other 214 00:12:03,360 --> 00:12:07,680 Speaker 1: at the store and and the result is really um 215 00:12:08,240 --> 00:12:13,240 Speaker 1: big discounts compared to previous years. And actually a lot 216 00:12:13,280 --> 00:12:16,680 Speaker 1: of them are at like multi year lows with the prices. 217 00:12:17,360 --> 00:12:19,240 Speaker 1: I love it. I mean, you know, it's the cliche 218 00:12:19,320 --> 00:12:21,880 Speaker 1: and commodities right that high prices are the cure for 219 00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:26,760 Speaker 1: high prices. We saw it obviously with the multi year 220 00:12:26,920 --> 00:12:29,400 Speaker 1: oil boom, and then there was so much expansion of 221 00:12:29,480 --> 00:12:32,760 Speaker 1: drilling and exploration, and then the price of oil crashed. 222 00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:35,880 Speaker 1: So it sounds like the essentially the same thing happened here, 223 00:12:35,920 --> 00:12:41,400 Speaker 1: except with the meat. Yeah, but I don't think that 224 00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:44,439 Speaker 1: they necessarily all happen at the same time, where it's 225 00:12:44,440 --> 00:12:47,680 Speaker 1: like chicken, pork and meat doing this at chicken pork 226 00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:49,719 Speaker 1: and beef doing this the same time a bit. At 227 00:12:49,760 --> 00:12:53,160 Speaker 1: this point, you know, it's all three markets, and so 228 00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:55,760 Speaker 1: the total meat supplies are going to be a record 229 00:12:56,320 --> 00:13:00,079 Speaker 1: for sure this year. And then um so, there is 230 00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:05,440 Speaker 1: really cheap grain prices right now too, so so it's 231 00:13:05,440 --> 00:13:11,680 Speaker 1: even cheaper for producers to produce meat. Um So, there's 232 00:13:11,720 --> 00:13:14,200 Speaker 1: a lot of people out there saying that this isn't 233 00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:16,640 Speaker 1: going to stop. It's just gonna it's gonna go for 234 00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:19,440 Speaker 1: a couple of years. There's going to be this expansion, 235 00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:24,040 Speaker 1: and so should have pretty good barbecue prices next summer too, 236 00:13:24,120 --> 00:13:27,160 Speaker 1: and maybe even the next one. I remember, you know, 237 00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:29,120 Speaker 1: just a couple of years ago, we were talking about 238 00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:33,720 Speaker 1: global demand for meat really taking off, especially in places 239 00:13:33,760 --> 00:13:36,520 Speaker 1: like China, and it's kind of surprising to see that 240 00:13:36,679 --> 00:13:40,640 Speaker 1: supply has been raised so much that it's offsetting what 241 00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:45,240 Speaker 1: was supposed to be a big increase in demand. Yeah. 242 00:13:45,320 --> 00:13:50,679 Speaker 1: So um because of the prices in the US, uh, 243 00:13:52,840 --> 00:13:57,600 Speaker 1: meat consumption grew the most in forty years or some 244 00:13:57,600 --> 00:14:03,360 Speaker 1: some very large number. Uh. In so Americans are pretty 245 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:07,040 Speaker 1: close to like keek meat eating. So we can't actually 246 00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:08,680 Speaker 1: eat all the meat that's going to be produced in 247 00:14:08,679 --> 00:14:11,880 Speaker 1: this country. UM. So it really needs to go to 248 00:14:11,920 --> 00:14:15,480 Speaker 1: these other countries. Um. And yes there is like rising 249 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:20,400 Speaker 1: meat consumption, but you know there's other producers that work 250 00:14:20,560 --> 00:14:24,920 Speaker 1: that you are competing with the U s so um uh. 251 00:14:25,640 --> 00:14:27,920 Speaker 1: I think it needs to be seen what happens. I 252 00:14:27,960 --> 00:14:31,480 Speaker 1: mean basically, if if if you know, China and other 253 00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:35,239 Speaker 1: emerging countries aren't going to absorb you know, the overflow 254 00:14:35,280 --> 00:14:37,560 Speaker 1: from the US, that's just gonna mean it's going to 255 00:14:37,640 --> 00:14:41,320 Speaker 1: back up here and be even cheaper. So Joe mentioned 256 00:14:41,440 --> 00:14:45,680 Speaker 1: a potential parallel with the US shale boom in terms 257 00:14:45,680 --> 00:14:48,680 Speaker 1: of supply rising really quickly to take advantage of higher 258 00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:53,080 Speaker 1: prices a couple of years ago. Was there any technology 259 00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:57,240 Speaker 1: involved in the supply growth in meat? I don't think 260 00:14:57,280 --> 00:15:01,800 Speaker 1: it's a specific technology, but producers are always working on 261 00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:06,440 Speaker 1: you know, breeding more efficiently and getting the genetics right. Um. 262 00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:09,680 Speaker 1: I think for for pigs, like, pigs have way more 263 00:15:09,800 --> 00:15:13,040 Speaker 1: piglets today than they used to. So Joe is a 264 00:15:13,160 --> 00:15:18,520 Speaker 1: very keen barbecuer. Can you recommend one specific meat that's 265 00:15:18,560 --> 00:15:20,840 Speaker 1: the best bargain at the moment that you could be 266 00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:25,280 Speaker 1: grilling next weekend? That's a great question. Best bargain? Well, 267 00:15:26,080 --> 00:15:32,480 Speaker 1: so in terms of things that were expensive last year 268 00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:36,000 Speaker 1: but cheap this year, right, Like what's really I should take? 269 00:15:36,040 --> 00:15:40,120 Speaker 1: Could be beef? Beef is really what are we talking about? 270 00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:44,760 Speaker 1: Like still expensive compared to like pork, but it's way 271 00:15:44,880 --> 00:15:46,960 Speaker 1: cheaper than it was last year. So if you're looking 272 00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:49,080 Speaker 1: for that discount, that would be it. But I guess, 273 00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:53,080 Speaker 1: you know, chicken and pork are just really they're really 274 00:15:53,120 --> 00:15:56,840 Speaker 1: down there. Maybe maybe ribs, Yeah, I've been I've been 275 00:15:56,840 --> 00:15:58,800 Speaker 1: smoking a lot of ribs this summer. I need to 276 00:15:58,840 --> 00:16:02,760 Speaker 1: actually take a ribbs break. Actually, you know, like pulled pork, 277 00:16:02,760 --> 00:16:05,360 Speaker 1: because everything that's not a barbecue, I'd never mind. No, no, no, 278 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:08,640 Speaker 1: no, no no, definitely maybe you can put like pulled pork 279 00:16:08,680 --> 00:16:11,040 Speaker 1: on your burger. I don't know, I don't know what 280 00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:13,960 Speaker 1: people do before we go. How much of just I 281 00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:15,880 Speaker 1: realize we haven't hit it, how much of a disc 282 00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:18,920 Speaker 1: a price crash are we talking about specifically from the 283 00:16:18,960 --> 00:16:23,600 Speaker 1: wholesale perspective? How much have prices gone down? Okay, so 284 00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:32,040 Speaker 1: so for for beef, it's about from last year, and 285 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:36,680 Speaker 1: pork is about the same. Chickens about cheaper on the 286 00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:43,440 Speaker 1: wholesale like chicken breasts, um, so you know, and that's 287 00:16:43,480 --> 00:16:46,840 Speaker 1: from last year. And there's you know, for for pork 288 00:16:46,880 --> 00:16:49,360 Speaker 1: and chicken, like they've been going down for like a 289 00:16:49,400 --> 00:16:53,080 Speaker 1: couple of years. So this is actually after some pretty 290 00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:57,480 Speaker 1: significant um discounts. So those and those are like multi 291 00:16:57,560 --> 00:17:01,240 Speaker 1: year lows, they're like five six year lows for the price. Well, 292 00:17:01,280 --> 00:17:03,720 Speaker 1: it seems pretty clear that this is a good summer 293 00:17:04,040 --> 00:17:07,560 Speaker 1: to have gotten into doing barbecuing, and with any luck, 294 00:17:07,800 --> 00:17:11,720 Speaker 1: perhaps not for the farmers. Uh, the summers ahead will 295 00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:16,880 Speaker 1: be inexpensive as well. Yeah. Well, Lydia Mulvannia, Bloomberg News, 296 00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:19,439 Speaker 1: thank you very much for joining us and telling us 297 00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:39,479 Speaker 1: the good news about meat price. So, Tracy, you know, 298 00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:44,120 Speaker 1: obviously the theme of that episode was summer, but as 299 00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:48,200 Speaker 1: you pointed out, another one of the themes was falling prices, 300 00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:53,240 Speaker 1: and we sort of explored multiple ways in which the 301 00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:56,520 Speaker 1: FED is being challenged and trying to hit its inflation target. 302 00:17:56,920 --> 00:18:01,240 Speaker 1: One is about technology and how new market to make 303 00:18:01,320 --> 00:18:06,639 Speaker 1: price competition extremely easy and liquid, and the other is 304 00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:11,359 Speaker 1: just about falling core commodity prices and these gluts that 305 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:13,960 Speaker 1: we're seeing all over the world that don't seem to 306 00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:17,880 Speaker 1: be going away anytime soon. Well, you're taking this episode 307 00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:22,280 Speaker 1: very serious. I didn't expect to. I thought I'm going 308 00:18:22,320 --> 00:18:24,359 Speaker 1: to talk about the floats and which one I was 309 00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:28,600 Speaker 1: going to buy. You can talk about that, No, no, no, Well, 310 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:32,200 Speaker 1: the thing I was very interested in was um. Well, 311 00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:35,040 Speaker 1: the inflation aspect of it is a big, big question, 312 00:18:35,359 --> 00:18:39,679 Speaker 1: especially in light of technology. And actually here we go, okay, 313 00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:42,040 Speaker 1: just to link the two. I wonder a lot about 314 00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:45,399 Speaker 1: the role of a company like Amazon in inflation, because 315 00:18:45,440 --> 00:18:48,199 Speaker 1: it seems in some respects like Amazon is really a 316 00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:53,200 Speaker 1: benevolent um monopoly for consumers. Right, it's super cheap, it's 317 00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:56,760 Speaker 1: very efficient. We can buy cheap inflatable pool toys. We 318 00:18:56,760 --> 00:19:01,200 Speaker 1: can even buy groceries and meats now days off of Amazon. 319 00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:05,080 Speaker 1: And that's great for consumers. But it means low prices 320 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:10,479 Speaker 1: obviously low inflation. And I wonder about the I suppose 321 00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:13,399 Speaker 1: challenges for businesses in that environment. Totally. I mean, if 322 00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:19,400 Speaker 1: you could theoretically gain a quasi monopoly by dominating the buybox. Uh, 323 00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:23,840 Speaker 1: if the one cent decrease in price. Now, obviously, as 324 00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:26,840 Speaker 1: Pouli pointed out, it's not quite that simple, but if 325 00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:31,280 Speaker 1: just this minor price cut can create this radical competition 326 00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:33,920 Speaker 1: dynamic the likes of which you would you know, if, 327 00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:36,960 Speaker 1: if you're talking about physical retail, one cent price cut 328 00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:38,879 Speaker 1: isn't enough to make you go to a different store, 329 00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:42,440 Speaker 1: it's hardly never would have existed years ago. So it 330 00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:46,160 Speaker 1: is really fascinating, Um, the dynamics there. And I'm also 331 00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:50,160 Speaker 1: fascinated by the extent to which something like Instagram can 332 00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:53,400 Speaker 1: have a whole new category of industry which people would 333 00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:56,920 Speaker 1: have never I mentioned. Um, absolutely I would. I would 334 00:19:56,920 --> 00:20:00,720 Speaker 1: go long Instagram process at this moment in I'm right, yeah, 335 00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:04,720 Speaker 1: I'll keep I'll keep watching out on Taylor Swift's Instagram 336 00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:09,560 Speaker 1: to see what the next big thing that she posted with. Okay, 337 00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:12,359 Speaker 1: all right, are you barbecuing this weekend? I am, And 338 00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:13,800 Speaker 1: I don't know what I'm gonna do yet, but I'm 339 00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:18,080 Speaker 1: thinking pulled pork actually, so uh, next episode I'll talk 340 00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:22,040 Speaker 1: about how that goes. Excellent, all right, well, this has 341 00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:25,200 Speaker 1: been another edition of the Odd Lots Podcast. Thanks everyone 342 00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:27,560 Speaker 1: for listening. I'm Joe wi Isn't There. You can follow 343 00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:30,439 Speaker 1: me on Twitter at the Stalwart and I'm Tracy Alloway. 344 00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:33,240 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Tracy Alloway. Thanks you listening.