1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:46,320 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. 11 00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:49,520 Speaker 3: Anastasia alm Moroso joins us right now. She's the chief 12 00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:54,000 Speaker 3: investment strategist for a Hi Capital. Anastasia, We've got a 13 00:00:54,040 --> 00:00:56,200 Speaker 3: little bit of a draw down here, five percent, give 14 00:00:56,280 --> 00:00:58,920 Speaker 3: or take a little bit. Is this a buying opportunity? 15 00:00:58,960 --> 00:01:01,360 Speaker 3: Is this a buying on the dip opportunity? What do 16 00:01:01,400 --> 00:01:03,800 Speaker 3: you think there's more correction to go in this market 17 00:01:03,800 --> 00:01:05,720 Speaker 3: as a market discounts, maybe a FED that's going to 18 00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:08,399 Speaker 3: be a little bit less dubbish than we initially thought. 19 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:12,200 Speaker 4: Yeah, well, good morning Paul and Tom, and I do 20 00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:14,440 Speaker 4: think this is a buying opportunity. You want to buy 21 00:01:14,480 --> 00:01:16,119 Speaker 4: this dip, but I would say you want to buy 22 00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:19,040 Speaker 4: it gradually. And the reason I say that is because 23 00:01:19,080 --> 00:01:21,880 Speaker 4: when I look at the technical setup now versus where 24 00:01:21,880 --> 00:01:23,959 Speaker 4: we were in the beginning of April, it is much 25 00:01:24,080 --> 00:01:29,280 Speaker 4: much cleaner uncertain measures. For example, bears are back, you know, 26 00:01:29,360 --> 00:01:31,600 Speaker 4: relative to where they were to start the year. You 27 00:01:31,720 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 4: also had a correction a from over bot levels to 28 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:38,200 Speaker 4: now near oversold levels. You have stocks that are actually 29 00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:40,480 Speaker 4: trading at one month lows, and so all of those 30 00:01:40,520 --> 00:01:44,280 Speaker 4: indicators suggest that we have a much cleaner technical positions. 31 00:01:44,680 --> 00:01:48,280 Speaker 4: But there is a butt from the perspective that we 32 00:01:48,440 --> 00:01:51,800 Speaker 4: have traded down below some of the key moving average levels. 33 00:01:51,840 --> 00:01:55,160 Speaker 4: We have traded down below some of the key thresholds 34 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:58,000 Speaker 4: for some of the systematic investors. So if we do 35 00:01:58,520 --> 00:02:01,640 Speaker 4: continue to get this you know, cocktail of uncertainty from 36 00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:05,960 Speaker 4: geopolitics and the FED and the macro, I could see 37 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:09,160 Speaker 4: some more selling pressure on these markets. Now, I do 38 00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:12,399 Speaker 4: think it ultimately resolves because the reason why we say 39 00:02:12,440 --> 00:02:15,360 Speaker 4: investors should step in, because many investors are sitting on 40 00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:18,200 Speaker 4: twenty or thirty percent cash that they need to put 41 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:21,239 Speaker 4: back to work just to get back to their strategic allocations. 42 00:02:21,440 --> 00:02:23,800 Speaker 4: So I think as those investors step in, as the 43 00:02:23,919 --> 00:02:27,000 Speaker 4: buybacks come back into play, and frankly, as we get 44 00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:29,720 Speaker 4: better news flow, I do think the market can pick 45 00:02:29,760 --> 00:02:32,200 Speaker 4: back up from here. So I would buy this dip, 46 00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:33,519 Speaker 4: but we just do that gradually. 47 00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:37,760 Speaker 3: Anastasia, since we've had many of our listeners investors, all 48 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:42,440 Speaker 3: they've ever known is technology leading the stock market. Should 49 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:44,720 Speaker 3: we be looking at tech on this dip here or 50 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:47,360 Speaker 3: there are some other sectors that you think might have 51 00:02:47,440 --> 00:02:49,160 Speaker 3: better risk reward opportunities. 52 00:02:50,320 --> 00:02:53,400 Speaker 4: It's tech and other sectors, And you know, I think 53 00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:55,800 Speaker 4: I'm always going to like buying tech on the dip 54 00:02:55,840 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 4: because tech is where the growth is and that's what 55 00:02:57,880 --> 00:03:00,720 Speaker 4: really drives most of the earnings growth. So if you 56 00:03:00,720 --> 00:03:03,919 Speaker 4: look at semiconductors, for example, they were an a stellar run, 57 00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:07,520 Speaker 4: but they have corrected some. But at the same time, 58 00:03:07,560 --> 00:03:10,920 Speaker 4: I actually expect this year is going to be a 59 00:03:11,120 --> 00:03:14,040 Speaker 4: growth year in terms of revenues for the semiconductor industry, 60 00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:16,880 Speaker 4: so it's not just about multiple expansion. So I do 61 00:03:17,040 --> 00:03:19,800 Speaker 4: like that. I would buy semiconductors on a dip, But 62 00:03:20,040 --> 00:03:22,920 Speaker 4: looking outside of tech, tom I would look to some 63 00:03:22,960 --> 00:03:26,760 Speaker 4: of the cyclicals like industrials, materials, and of course energy, 64 00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:29,200 Speaker 4: because the big thing that I feel like is not 65 00:03:29,360 --> 00:03:33,359 Speaker 4: very well talked about is this optic in global manufacturing 66 00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:35,280 Speaker 4: that is starting and Astasia. 67 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:38,240 Speaker 2: We've got a basic idea of a better nominal GDP, 68 00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:39,240 Speaker 2: inflation up. 69 00:03:39,200 --> 00:03:41,840 Speaker 5: A little bit, GDP up a little. 70 00:03:41,600 --> 00:03:43,680 Speaker 2: Bit at least, not the doom and gloan that everybody 71 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:47,680 Speaker 2: was predicting. Do we do we have any knowledge of 72 00:03:47,720 --> 00:03:50,560 Speaker 2: what the revenue dynamics are going to be sector to sector. 73 00:03:50,880 --> 00:03:53,600 Speaker 2: To me, the greatness is they may come in better 74 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:54,080 Speaker 2: than good. 75 00:03:55,960 --> 00:03:58,800 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think they just my tom. I mean, going 76 00:03:58,840 --> 00:04:02,040 Speaker 4: into this quarter reporting season, the bar has actually been 77 00:04:02,080 --> 00:04:04,920 Speaker 4: reset lower. You had a lot of companies that issued 78 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:07,560 Speaker 4: negative guidance, which I actually view as a positive because 79 00:04:07,560 --> 00:04:09,760 Speaker 4: it means it's out there. It's all about what's already 80 00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:14,080 Speaker 4: priced in. We also had a downboards revision for the 81 00:04:14,120 --> 00:04:17,760 Speaker 4: first quarter earnings, which again means companies may actually be 82 00:04:17,880 --> 00:04:21,240 Speaker 4: able to beat that. But as I look, you know broader, 83 00:04:21,279 --> 00:04:25,240 Speaker 4: and I look at the number of earnings revisions upgrades 84 00:04:25,279 --> 00:04:29,320 Speaker 4: for this year versus downgrades, the upgrades actually outpaced the 85 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:32,400 Speaker 4: downgrades for the United States this year and next year. 86 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:36,080 Speaker 4: So I think there is a positive story. And you know, 87 00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:39,200 Speaker 4: the reason why I think cyclicals are an interesting place 88 00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:42,320 Speaker 4: to position is because clearly their earnings have lagged the 89 00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:45,360 Speaker 4: technology sector. But if you do have this broadening out 90 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:49,719 Speaker 4: and manufacturing activity, I think things like things beyond semiconductors 91 00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:52,919 Speaker 4: can experience an upwards earnings revision cycle. 92 00:04:52,800 --> 00:04:55,680 Speaker 2: In a stationer. Also, thank you so much for the capital. 93 00:05:05,760 --> 00:05:08,200 Speaker 2: I would explain this as clearly as I can in 94 00:05:08,240 --> 00:05:11,599 Speaker 2: a short time, so it's not waste any time. We 95 00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:15,240 Speaker 2: need to hear from Latchmenachathon, and that is that there's 96 00:05:15,240 --> 00:05:18,360 Speaker 2: a way to do economics where you look at series 97 00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:22,600 Speaker 2: lines on a graph and you try to extrapolate out 98 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:27,120 Speaker 2: or guess out short term, medium term and long term 99 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 2: long ago and far away. Before Alan Greenspan, I should say, 100 00:05:34,560 --> 00:05:38,240 Speaker 2: was a guy named Jeffrey Moore. In fact, Jeffrey Moore's 101 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:42,560 Speaker 2: student was Alan Greenspan. And this owes very much to 102 00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:45,000 Speaker 2: the work of Ed Heyman, who was in here this 103 00:05:45,080 --> 00:05:48,520 Speaker 2: week with CJ. Lawrence years ago. You got to look 104 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:51,279 Speaker 2: at the data, You have to look at the cycles. 105 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:56,000 Speaker 2: And here's the key phrase of business carrying this heritage 106 00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:59,960 Speaker 2: forward with leading indicators from the Economic Cycle Research Institute 107 00:06:00,600 --> 00:06:03,919 Speaker 2: lat honor day have you and you know Latin, I 108 00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:06,320 Speaker 2: can't imagine just you know, the pandemic had coming out 109 00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:11,720 Speaker 2: of It's been like, can you do cycle research given 110 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:15,919 Speaker 2: a health event like a pandemic and given the massive 111 00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:19,360 Speaker 2: three stimuli we've seen from the federal government. 112 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:25,240 Speaker 6: Sure, absolutely, the critical component is the inflection point in 113 00:06:25,279 --> 00:06:28,720 Speaker 6: this cycle. So the premise going way back, and thank 114 00:06:28,760 --> 00:06:31,960 Speaker 6: you for going back doctor Moore, who was a Greenspan's teacher. 115 00:06:32,600 --> 00:06:35,159 Speaker 6: His teacher was a man named Wesley Mitchell, who defined 116 00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:37,440 Speaker 6: what a cycle was, what a business cycle is. So 117 00:06:37,800 --> 00:06:40,640 Speaker 6: we use these phrases around a lot now, but one 118 00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:42,239 Speaker 6: hundred years ago this was original. 119 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:43,280 Speaker 5: They didn't know what it was. 120 00:06:43,839 --> 00:06:45,960 Speaker 6: And so we had this ebb and flow, the upswing 121 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:48,360 Speaker 6: and the downswing in free market oriented economies. Look, it's 122 00:06:48,400 --> 00:06:51,080 Speaker 6: the best way to organize an economy. The Achilles eo 123 00:06:51,279 --> 00:06:54,040 Speaker 6: is it has a cycle. So when you approach these 124 00:06:54,080 --> 00:06:57,680 Speaker 6: turning points, what's the best tool to understand the risk. 125 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:01,240 Speaker 6: And we have found and this is over three generations now, 126 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:05,039 Speaker 6: so we've been testing this that a leading indicator approach 127 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:08,080 Speaker 6: where it kind of flags the risk of a turn, 128 00:07:08,640 --> 00:07:11,760 Speaker 6: is a good compliment to the econometric model approach, which 129 00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:12,920 Speaker 6: is really good in between the. 130 00:07:12,880 --> 00:07:15,560 Speaker 2: Turn key thing there that's religion, folks in the business 131 00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:18,560 Speaker 2: of not losing money is a good compliment. Did you 132 00:07:18,840 --> 00:07:22,400 Speaker 2: catch the higher economic growth of the last three four 133 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 2: or five quarters? 134 00:07:23,880 --> 00:07:25,360 Speaker 5: Well, first and foremost. 135 00:07:25,880 --> 00:07:28,560 Speaker 6: In twenty twenty we said it was going to be 136 00:07:28,560 --> 00:07:31,360 Speaker 6: a short, nasty recession and then we would be off 137 00:07:31,360 --> 00:07:33,560 Speaker 6: to the races. So it's hard to remember, but there 138 00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:35,680 Speaker 6: was a lot of hand ringing in twenty twenty and 139 00:07:35,720 --> 00:07:38,720 Speaker 6: twenty twenty one, and we were looking straight up. Now, 140 00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:42,960 Speaker 6: the cycle indicators turned down sharply. So in twenty two 141 00:07:43,120 --> 00:07:46,400 Speaker 6: into twenty three, the cyclical impulse was very much to 142 00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:49,320 Speaker 6: the downside. We actually had two negative quarters of GDP, 143 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:52,800 Speaker 6: but that's not a recession, I'm sorry, you have to 144 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:56,560 Speaker 6: have negative jobs growth. And so we did not have 145 00:07:56,760 --> 00:07:59,080 Speaker 6: a recession in twenty two to twenty three, even though 146 00:07:59,120 --> 00:08:02,400 Speaker 6: the cycle indicators came down hard. The reason is, as 147 00:08:02,440 --> 00:08:06,280 Speaker 6: Tom just eluded this backwash of COVID. There's two key 148 00:08:06,360 --> 00:08:09,680 Speaker 6: pieces that we're dealing with even today, the backwash is 149 00:08:09,720 --> 00:08:13,560 Speaker 6: still here. One is that you have a huge constraint, 150 00:08:13,600 --> 00:08:16,120 Speaker 6: a generational constraint on the labor market. 151 00:08:16,240 --> 00:08:18,320 Speaker 5: So under the Trump administration. 152 00:08:17,760 --> 00:08:20,400 Speaker 6: You had about four years of very low if nothing 153 00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:24,200 Speaker 6: on legal immigration. That knocks out several million people from 154 00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:26,800 Speaker 6: the labor force. Post COVID, a lot of people didn't 155 00:08:26,800 --> 00:08:30,360 Speaker 6: come back. That knocks out millions more. On top of 156 00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:35,440 Speaker 6: a highly constrained labor market. We put seven trillion. Remember 157 00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:37,960 Speaker 6: Senator Dierkson, he used to say a billion here, a 158 00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:40,320 Speaker 6: billion theare that's a lot of money. Now we're talking 159 00:08:40,480 --> 00:08:43,440 Speaker 6: trillions here and trillions there. On top of a tight 160 00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:46,480 Speaker 6: labor market. Very hard for jobs to go negative, very 161 00:08:46,679 --> 00:08:49,520 Speaker 6: so much foam on the runway. Hard to have a recession. 162 00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:53,440 Speaker 6: Now let's get to today. Leading indicators are actually firming 163 00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:57,760 Speaker 6: on growth. They're starting to actually firm a bit. And 164 00:08:58,800 --> 00:09:00,319 Speaker 6: the other thing I want to get on the table 165 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:03,559 Speaker 6: is there a global industrial upturn that's not country specific, 166 00:09:04,040 --> 00:09:07,720 Speaker 6: that's around the world. The manufacturing floors are getting getting 167 00:09:09,000 --> 00:09:13,640 Speaker 6: a grip. And then separate cycles because you alluded. 168 00:09:13,360 --> 00:09:14,000 Speaker 5: To green span. 169 00:09:14,559 --> 00:09:17,040 Speaker 6: Uh, there's an inflation cycle we have to contend to. 170 00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:19,680 Speaker 6: It's different than growth and that's moving up. 171 00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:21,520 Speaker 3: So I mean again, that is probably one of the 172 00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:24,240 Speaker 3: key issues for this federal reserves. They think about inflation, 173 00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:27,280 Speaker 3: how does inflation factor into this? And is there a 174 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 3: reasonable scenario where this Fed doesn't have. 175 00:09:29,280 --> 00:09:30,000 Speaker 7: To cut rates? 176 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:33,800 Speaker 6: Yeah, the short answer is yes, Okay, there's uh. So 177 00:09:33,960 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 6: we use these there's there's the target, which is CPI 178 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:40,079 Speaker 6: inflation or pc deflator or all these things, and they 179 00:09:40,240 --> 00:09:42,880 Speaker 6: define the cycle and we can say there's upswings and 180 00:09:42,920 --> 00:09:45,240 Speaker 6: down swings. We're in a down swing for the most part, 181 00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:48,080 Speaker 6: but there's a lot of signs that some of the 182 00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:52,200 Speaker 6: coincident data is bottoming. And the reason I'm suspicious about 183 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:55,239 Speaker 6: that is because of the leading indicators of inflation internationally, 184 00:09:55,240 --> 00:09:58,360 Speaker 6: they've turned up. In the US we're the one holdout 185 00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:01,360 Speaker 6: where instead of turning up, our future inflation gauge has 186 00:10:01,400 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 6: been flat for over a year. So we really were 187 00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:07,840 Speaker 6: prepared for the sticky or higher for longer whatever's been 188 00:10:07,880 --> 00:10:13,880 Speaker 6: going on. And now with the knowledge that international inflation 189 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:18,640 Speaker 6: cycles are largely synchronized, we're really suspicious that the US 190 00:10:18,679 --> 00:10:19,080 Speaker 6: could go on. 191 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:20,679 Speaker 2: I'm going to go away from you and go to 192 00:10:20,840 --> 00:10:22,480 Speaker 2: the lines in the chart and all that. 193 00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:24,600 Speaker 5: Yeah, my chart of the year right now is. 194 00:10:24,559 --> 00:10:27,960 Speaker 2: To yield the worst global aggregate index of stealingness from someone, 195 00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:31,199 Speaker 2: folks outside of next Monday, but the answer is I'm 196 00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:35,480 Speaker 2: out for standard deviations from the Vogar disinflation out to 197 00:10:35,520 --> 00:10:37,800 Speaker 2: the where we are now, which is four point zero 198 00:10:37,920 --> 00:10:43,120 Speaker 2: zero percent yield on a global basis. To me, that's 199 00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:47,480 Speaker 2: reversion to the mean. There's Latchmnatothon and Eckery believe in 200 00:10:47,640 --> 00:10:48,720 Speaker 2: reversion to the mean. 201 00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:52,480 Speaker 5: Yeah, it'd be nice, but it keeps going. That's that's 202 00:10:52,559 --> 00:10:53,920 Speaker 5: the that's the thing. 203 00:10:54,000 --> 00:10:58,480 Speaker 6: So we have cycles and they'll they don't know about means, right, 204 00:10:58,520 --> 00:11:00,680 Speaker 6: They're they're they're cycling up in their cycling. 205 00:11:02,840 --> 00:11:06,720 Speaker 2: I'm going to stay with you here, and you don't 206 00:11:06,760 --> 00:11:08,280 Speaker 2: believe in reversion to the media. 207 00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:10,000 Speaker 5: No, it's going to turn it's going. 208 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:12,360 Speaker 6: I mean, I think if there's a headline here, it's 209 00:11:12,440 --> 00:11:15,000 Speaker 6: that inflation is cyclical. 210 00:11:15,200 --> 00:11:16,600 Speaker 5: Sometimes people forget that. 211 00:11:17,080 --> 00:11:17,200 Speaker 8: Uh. 212 00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:20,240 Speaker 5: It doesn't go down to your target and hang out there. 213 00:11:20,320 --> 00:11:23,480 Speaker 5: It likes to bottom and turn up and can turn down. 214 00:11:23,760 --> 00:11:26,520 Speaker 6: And the FED has been learning this very difficult lesson 215 00:11:26,600 --> 00:11:29,720 Speaker 6: since might I say since twenty eighteen they've been learning this, 216 00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:33,200 Speaker 6: and I don't think they've really gotten the lesson quite yet. 217 00:11:33,640 --> 00:11:35,800 Speaker 6: Maybe here, I mean, how many pivots. 218 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:37,520 Speaker 5: Have there been for Powell? Now, there's been a few 219 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:39,480 Speaker 5: YEP transitory. 220 00:11:39,679 --> 00:11:43,280 Speaker 2: YEP transitory is like anathema the Jeffrey Moore exactly. 221 00:11:44,320 --> 00:11:49,080 Speaker 3: All right, So it's interesting here we look at this economy. Yeah, 222 00:11:49,120 --> 00:11:52,240 Speaker 3: I think have we taken recession completely off the table here? Uh? 223 00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:54,800 Speaker 6: Well, so when I talk about cycles, I'm looking out 224 00:11:54,840 --> 00:11:58,720 Speaker 6: a couple of quarters. So what happens after that, I 225 00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:01,920 Speaker 6: think is is yet to be determined. Quite frankly, what 226 00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:05,280 Speaker 6: really happens. The way you get a recession is the 227 00:12:05,320 --> 00:12:07,199 Speaker 6: cyclical impulse moves to the downside. 228 00:12:07,520 --> 00:12:09,199 Speaker 5: Window of vulnerability opens. 229 00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:12,320 Speaker 6: Up, and can you have a shock? The shock and 230 00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:14,800 Speaker 6: the window of vulnerability gives you the recession. Because we 231 00:12:14,800 --> 00:12:18,760 Speaker 6: have plenty of shocks without recessions. This is a differentiating factor. 232 00:12:19,080 --> 00:12:21,160 Speaker 6: There's so much I mean, seven trillion, right, this is 233 00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:23,920 Speaker 6: a big number. Plus forget about it. I didn't even 234 00:12:23,920 --> 00:12:26,040 Speaker 6: talk about the FED stimulus for two years before that, 235 00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:27,200 Speaker 6: which was off the charts. 236 00:12:27,559 --> 00:12:30,319 Speaker 5: So that's a lot of foam on the runway. 237 00:12:31,200 --> 00:12:34,560 Speaker 6: On a tight labor market, it was virtually impossible to 238 00:12:34,600 --> 00:12:36,680 Speaker 6: have a recession, but elsewhere we did. 239 00:12:36,760 --> 00:12:39,120 Speaker 5: Other countries that didn't do that had recessions. 240 00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:42,280 Speaker 2: I would suggest that we have a new tilt back 241 00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:46,240 Speaker 2: to ecky kind of research within conventional economics. Do you 242 00:12:46,280 --> 00:12:49,600 Speaker 2: feel as abused now years ago? 243 00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:52,960 Speaker 6: Well, look, a lot of a lot of money makes 244 00:12:53,000 --> 00:12:53,880 Speaker 6: things feel good. 245 00:12:53,960 --> 00:12:55,719 Speaker 5: It covers up things, right, and we've had a lot 246 00:12:55,760 --> 00:12:56,800 Speaker 5: of deck growth. 247 00:12:58,760 --> 00:13:01,520 Speaker 6: When you the really big question is are the bond 248 00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:03,040 Speaker 6: market vision and he's going to come back. 249 00:13:03,240 --> 00:13:06,679 Speaker 5: Are they going to stand for this or not? And 250 00:13:07,040 --> 00:13:08,640 Speaker 5: that's what we have to say, Well, come back at 251 00:13:08,679 --> 00:13:09,760 Speaker 5: six standard deviation. 252 00:13:12,440 --> 00:13:19,560 Speaker 2: What a joy latron Ataton where there's Christian Malek at 253 00:13:19,640 --> 00:13:23,280 Speaker 2: JP Morgan is out of the Imperial College Combine and 254 00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:28,920 Speaker 2: he writes brilliantly on oil economics, but particularly the bigger 255 00:13:28,960 --> 00:13:33,679 Speaker 2: picture of oil macro economics. Christian, before the pandemic, you 256 00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:38,760 Speaker 2: were looking at building demand, particularly across emerging market countries, 257 00:13:38,800 --> 00:13:42,839 Speaker 2: which should nudge us over one hundred dollars a barrel. 258 00:13:43,200 --> 00:13:46,040 Speaker 2: Maybe the pandemic got in the way. Is now the 259 00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:49,320 Speaker 2: time where we nudge above one hundred dollars a barrel? 260 00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:50,960 Speaker 5: Yeah? 261 00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:53,920 Speaker 7: I think Unpack and hates on re grets on this 262 00:13:54,000 --> 00:13:57,440 Speaker 7: fantastic show. A couple of points to make. Maybe just 263 00:13:57,440 --> 00:14:00,440 Speaker 7: before we get to the old price is I think 264 00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:03,800 Speaker 7: we're still passing a tipping point. Ay, to use the 265 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:07,040 Speaker 7: cliche on demand, and I say that because you know, 266 00:14:07,040 --> 00:14:08,920 Speaker 7: when you think of statistics like eighty percent of the 267 00:14:08,960 --> 00:14:10,600 Speaker 7: world hasn't been on a plane, there is what I 268 00:14:10,679 --> 00:14:14,880 Speaker 7: call invisible demand, demand that is essentially starting point in 269 00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:18,599 Speaker 7: the sort of non OBCD world without which to generalize, 270 00:14:18,880 --> 00:14:21,520 Speaker 7: where vast population is looking to high grade their living 271 00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:25,400 Speaker 7: standards to a level that we enjoy here in the West. 272 00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:28,200 Speaker 7: And so with that in mind, that incremental demand, that 273 00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:33,400 Speaker 7: incremental dollar of demand for in the context of war price, 274 00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:35,720 Speaker 7: that's someone getting on a plane that hasn't been on 275 00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:38,080 Speaker 7: a plane, or driving car, or essentially lights on the 276 00:14:38,080 --> 00:14:42,000 Speaker 7: street that didn't exist. All of that incremental demand is 277 00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:46,280 Speaker 7: what is compounding to a point where we're seeing very 278 00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:49,880 Speaker 7: strong growth, well passed where we were in the pandemic, 279 00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:55,000 Speaker 7: and that is the demand growth that's underwriting a much 280 00:14:55,040 --> 00:14:56,800 Speaker 7: higher price in the future. So if you ask the 281 00:14:56,880 --> 00:15:01,200 Speaker 7: question around one hundred or oil, I think i'll it's inevitable, 282 00:15:01,320 --> 00:15:03,880 Speaker 7: particularly given where the supply outlook is today. 283 00:15:04,120 --> 00:15:06,200 Speaker 2: The events we see and I don't want to just 284 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:08,560 Speaker 2: focus on what we saw at two am this morning 285 00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:13,280 Speaker 2: US time of Israel in Iran, but the answer is 286 00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:18,160 Speaker 2: the experts to me, have been surprised by Iranian oil production, 287 00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 2: it's been good. 288 00:15:19,640 --> 00:15:20,600 Speaker 5: Do I have that right? 289 00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:25,960 Speaker 7: Well, the facts say that they're actually producing sort of 290 00:15:26,040 --> 00:15:28,480 Speaker 7: this five to six yet high and so so in 291 00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:32,080 Speaker 7: that in that context it seems correct. I think what 292 00:15:32,120 --> 00:15:33,880 Speaker 7: we're sort of missing here and stort of talking about 293 00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:37,520 Speaker 7: Iranian production and other like. For example, Venezuela is what 294 00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:40,160 Speaker 7: is spec capacity in the world, And spec capacity if 295 00:15:40,200 --> 00:15:43,000 Speaker 7: you define it as two two buckets one the other 296 00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:45,240 Speaker 7: bucket is shale. You don't tend to think of specapacity 297 00:15:45,320 --> 00:15:48,080 Speaker 7: for shale, but it exists. It's the it's the reservoir, 298 00:15:48,120 --> 00:15:50,480 Speaker 7: it's the it's the all under the ground. And those 299 00:15:50,520 --> 00:15:53,440 Speaker 7: two sources of specopasta is still quite significant. And one 300 00:15:53,480 --> 00:15:56,440 Speaker 7: we can measure opeckage around forty five million barrels. The 301 00:15:56,480 --> 00:16:01,520 Speaker 7: other shale where there's still a very big So combining 302 00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:04,160 Speaker 7: those two things and I heard your comments earlier about 303 00:16:04,160 --> 00:16:07,000 Speaker 7: the old price reaction, we're not surprised. I know that's 304 00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:09,840 Speaker 7: sort of potentially surprised to say that. But when you 305 00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:12,520 Speaker 7: have that much of their capacity in the system, so 306 00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:16,560 Speaker 7: to speak, you know, any potential move and oil can 307 00:16:16,640 --> 00:16:19,920 Speaker 7: be met through those additional volumes be it from Saudi, 308 00:16:19,920 --> 00:16:23,760 Speaker 7: from OPEC and ultimately how shale responds to those higher prices. 309 00:16:24,160 --> 00:16:27,120 Speaker 3: Christian, my colleague and I, Alex Steele and I. We 310 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:29,120 Speaker 3: spent a couple of days at the Bloomberg New Energy 311 00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:31,360 Speaker 3: Finance Conference here in New York earlier this week and 312 00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:33,520 Speaker 3: again a lot of the industry players coming together and 313 00:16:33,520 --> 00:16:37,200 Speaker 3: talking about the transition to cleaner energy. From you your perspective, 314 00:16:37,840 --> 00:16:39,680 Speaker 3: where are we on that whole time frame? 315 00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:42,480 Speaker 7: Well, it's a timely question because we've come up with 316 00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:45,640 Speaker 7: a fifty page reports that's taken about nine months to produce. 317 00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:49,200 Speaker 7: Only I'd like to say that because it takes a 318 00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:50,400 Speaker 7: lot of time to sort of break the back and 319 00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:53,800 Speaker 7: understanding what is the energy transition of transition, how does 320 00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:56,520 Speaker 7: it work in terms of the deliver of renewaballs. And 321 00:16:56,840 --> 00:16:59,760 Speaker 7: one of the things that we've sort of discovered through 322 00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:03,240 Speaker 7: the sort of re examining the energy transition is the 323 00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:08,560 Speaker 7: macroeconomic backdrop has significantly changed. The variables have changed, interest rates, 324 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:12,679 Speaker 7: government debt, costs of living, inflation, a geopisical landscape that's 325 00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:17,080 Speaker 7: structurally changed. And so with all those things combined to 326 00:17:17,119 --> 00:17:20,560 Speaker 7: then reassess the transition through that lens. What we've sort 327 00:17:20,600 --> 00:17:23,040 Speaker 7: of unveiled, if you like, is the fact that it's 328 00:17:23,080 --> 00:17:26,360 Speaker 7: not over. It's still going to continue, but a reality 329 00:17:26,440 --> 00:17:29,080 Speaker 7: check is needed in terms of its pace and more importantly, 330 00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:32,520 Speaker 7: how we use fossil fuels, which we believe are undervalued 331 00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:37,200 Speaker 7: and underappreciated. So, to answer your question directly, the way 332 00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:39,600 Speaker 7: we see the energy transition faring at this point is 333 00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:42,359 Speaker 7: a sort of re examination of all the fuels that 334 00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:45,280 Speaker 7: we can access in order to ensure that we don't 335 00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:49,400 Speaker 7: have escalating energy prices, because the byproduct of a forced 336 00:17:49,480 --> 00:17:53,760 Speaker 7: expedided energy transition will be much higher energy prices and 337 00:17:53,840 --> 00:17:56,119 Speaker 7: pain for the consumer. And that will then, if you 338 00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:58,280 Speaker 7: think about kind of like the feedback loop, that can 339 00:17:58,359 --> 00:18:00,280 Speaker 7: end up forcing the hand of governments to do things 340 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:02,960 Speaker 7: that aren't appropriate at all because they're trying to meet 341 00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:07,200 Speaker 7: the consumer at that point. So we actually think that 342 00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:13,360 Speaker 7: it's very important to reassess the transition starting working backwards 343 00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:16,320 Speaker 7: from the consumer, working backwards from a large part of 344 00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:18,720 Speaker 7: the world that have access energy at all. 345 00:18:19,080 --> 00:18:22,720 Speaker 2: That's classic Christian maylok there. Paul I can't say enough 346 00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:27,760 Speaker 2: how that changes the em analysis the Damien Sasa our world. 347 00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:31,919 Speaker 2: When he says there, listen to the consumption, listen to 348 00:18:31,960 --> 00:18:37,680 Speaker 2: the demands, the desires, the aspirations of emerging Americans. They're 349 00:18:37,720 --> 00:18:40,920 Speaker 2: not worried like John Tucker is about. Can the rivian 350 00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:44,720 Speaker 2: find a place to recharge this morning in Summit, New Jersey? 351 00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:48,200 Speaker 3: Exactly, Christian, I mean, we talk about the demand side, 352 00:18:48,960 --> 00:18:51,440 Speaker 3: on supply side, Why does an America who's now the 353 00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:53,920 Speaker 3: biggest producer of oil, why don't our shoale guys down 354 00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:57,080 Speaker 3: in Texas and Louisiana just start cranking out more supply? 355 00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:01,200 Speaker 7: Great question. I mean, I think one of the things 356 00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:03,720 Speaker 7: that we've looked at into the productivity and runway of 357 00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:07,520 Speaker 7: Shehlle production is as follows, when you look at what's 358 00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:09,240 Speaker 7: under the ground. One of one of the sort of 359 00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:12,800 Speaker 7: surprises the upside on production show has been lateral drilling, 360 00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:16,720 Speaker 7: getting basically drilling as far as you can. What's happening now, 361 00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:19,119 Speaker 7: sort of putting in layman terms, is we're getting to 362 00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:22,400 Speaker 7: somebody's house the fence. You can't drill under their house, 363 00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:24,800 Speaker 7: so you need to now buy your neighbor in order 364 00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:27,639 Speaker 7: to scale up your production. And that's exactly what's happening 365 00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:30,639 Speaker 7: through the consolidation and if you like, consolidation is a 366 00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,000 Speaker 7: sort of red flag in the context of being able 367 00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:37,200 Speaker 7: to generate high productivity going forward. 368 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:38,160 Speaker 1: Again lay in. 369 00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:40,200 Speaker 7: Terms continue to underground. 370 00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:41,360 Speaker 5: But what does this mean. 371 00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:45,280 Speaker 7: It means that shape production will continue, but it won't 372 00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:49,240 Speaker 7: continue the same contems one millions a day of every 373 00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:53,200 Speaker 7: year that that's not possible. But I would also flip 374 00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:56,760 Speaker 7: it around. We need shall production. Shall production is bullish 375 00:19:57,080 --> 00:19:59,520 Speaker 7: for the economy. The reason being is we need to 376 00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:02,639 Speaker 7: be able to have that upside going forward. So having 377 00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:08,439 Speaker 7: that much Saudi extra production or capacity, having shale, it 378 00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:09,840 Speaker 7: gives me a peace of mind that as much as 379 00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:12,320 Speaker 7: we're very bullish in the future pricing good one hundred 380 00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:16,040 Speaker 7: and fifty, it's important it doesn't overheat and for that 381 00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:18,080 Speaker 7: to happen, we need to make sure we have that production. 382 00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:20,760 Speaker 7: So shale is sort of bullish, but counter cheer to 383 00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:21,240 Speaker 7: you for it that. 384 00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:23,760 Speaker 2: Way, Christian, We're gonna leave it there. Thank you, protecting 385 00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:28,280 Speaker 2: for the analysis of em demn Christian Maylak. Of course, 386 00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:41,920 Speaker 2: with JP Morgan London and oil you did you look 387 00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:45,640 Speaker 2: at the front pages on a Friday, Michael Barr, Lisa Matteo, 388 00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:49,280 Speaker 2: Posswen and I say thank you interactive brokers. 389 00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:50,040 Speaker 7: Lisa, what do you do? 390 00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:53,360 Speaker 8: All right? We're talking about why American roads are so dangerous. 391 00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:56,560 Speaker 8: This was through financial times. Two things worse. And this 392 00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:58,800 Speaker 8: is pretty interesting. The total number of miles driven by 393 00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:02,880 Speaker 8: Americans increase. US cars are getting bigger, right, so Americans 394 00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:05,639 Speaker 8: are committed to their cars. Actually, sixty three percent of 395 00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:08,080 Speaker 8: people chose to drive for trips less than a mile. 396 00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:12,160 Speaker 8: So I guess we're lazy. Okay, we're not. We're tending 397 00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:16,520 Speaker 8: to drive for those quick trips. Vehicle sizes, larger cars, 398 00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:20,000 Speaker 8: more deadly to pedestrians. And here's the last interesting point. 399 00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:22,520 Speaker 8: Another theory is that the rise of homelessness in the 400 00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:26,600 Speaker 8: US could be pushing pedestrian deaths higher. So all those things. 401 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:29,840 Speaker 5: Yeah, so the guest is analyzing our roadways. 402 00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:32,400 Speaker 3: Yes, okay, this is John burn Murdoch. 403 00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:35,480 Speaker 2: John Burns Murdoch was outstanding in COVID. He's the one 404 00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:38,280 Speaker 2: that did all the charts everybody stole from when he 405 00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:42,600 Speaker 2: stole them from heavyweight academics. I was fascinated lower in 406 00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:47,200 Speaker 2: that article Lisa Matteo about the speed differential between US 407 00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:50,880 Speaker 2: and Canada. And you know where I saw mental speed? La, 408 00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:52,679 Speaker 2: I'm sitting there with a cigar in my hand on 409 00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:55,960 Speaker 2: Sunset Boulevard in LA and I'm looking at how people 410 00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:57,880 Speaker 2: drive in LA to go three blocks. 411 00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:00,680 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean they're going forty five. Yeah, we're going 412 00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:01,280 Speaker 5: twenty five. 413 00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:02,760 Speaker 2: I don't get it. 414 00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:06,080 Speaker 3: My driver this morning was flying on the term they 415 00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:07,240 Speaker 3: what do you got next? 416 00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:11,840 Speaker 8: All right, millennials going to golf community, So move over, boomers. 417 00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:14,320 Speaker 8: The millennials are coming in real estate brokers telling the 418 00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:17,159 Speaker 8: Wall Street Journal that they're tired of paying more for 419 00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:19,560 Speaker 8: less in the city. A lot of them returning forty. 420 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:23,880 Speaker 8: They like the neighborhood golf old feel. Yes, the clubs 421 00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:26,040 Speaker 8: are catering to this younger crowd. 422 00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:29,639 Speaker 3: So what do you think, Paul, Yeah, I mean, you know, 423 00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:33,840 Speaker 3: the our club has been about families since the beginning. 424 00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:36,600 Speaker 3: But again again, I think a lot of folks are relocating. 425 00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:38,919 Speaker 3: You know, they've left during a pandemic, some of the 426 00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:41,439 Speaker 3: urban centers the East coast, West coast and going to 427 00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:46,439 Speaker 3: the Carolinas or Tennessee or Texas or Florida and and 428 00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:48,760 Speaker 3: those places. They don't they know how to do those 429 00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:49,560 Speaker 3: golf community things. 430 00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:50,400 Speaker 5: They're pretty good at it. 431 00:22:50,320 --> 00:22:52,640 Speaker 2: That you know. There's no one listening now on YouTube. 432 00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:55,399 Speaker 2: Is it worse golfer than me? And I'm sort of 433 00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:57,400 Speaker 2: I think I should go. 434 00:22:57,160 --> 00:22:57,960 Speaker 5: To Top Golf. 435 00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:02,280 Speaker 3: Oh yeah, these are beverages, will have adult beverages there. 436 00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:03,800 Speaker 5: And you will have a very good time. 437 00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:06,040 Speaker 2: I mean, I'm a good morning Top Golf. You want 438 00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:07,920 Speaker 2: to Can we do a package with them? 439 00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:09,000 Speaker 5: Sure? An endorsement. 440 00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:12,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, a little surveillance brought to you by Top Golf. 441 00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:15,480 Speaker 3: Remote from like the top off Fort lauder or Las Vegas, 442 00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:16,840 Speaker 3: one of my favorite places. 443 00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:20,360 Speaker 8: Okay, this is from Consumer Affairs, a survey conducted by 444 00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:23,880 Speaker 8: Lance Sherety Bonds that found twenty five percent of homeowners 445 00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:25,720 Speaker 8: who plan to sell their home in the next twelve 446 00:23:25,720 --> 00:23:29,080 Speaker 8: months plan to do so without a realtor. So that's 447 00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:31,560 Speaker 8: the interesting thing that a lot more homeowners are to 448 00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:34,560 Speaker 8: home sellers are choosing not to go with the realtor. 449 00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:36,639 Speaker 8: I've actually seen the signs in the homes around my 450 00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:39,400 Speaker 8: community for sale by owner, right, a lot more. Now, 451 00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:45,080 Speaker 8: there's a lot of paperwork I would I wouldn't want 452 00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:47,480 Speaker 8: to take that on it. There's a lot of paperwork 453 00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:49,080 Speaker 8: that I would not want to get wrong. 454 00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:52,800 Speaker 2: I don't remember the details, but the fam at one 455 00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:55,959 Speaker 2: point a million years ago. I can't remember if they 456 00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:58,440 Speaker 2: were buying or selling, and it was ugly. 457 00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:02,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, I've always used an agent and just kind of 458 00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:04,600 Speaker 3: rip it. But I found what the agents didn't get 459 00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:06,879 Speaker 3: this time when I was selling some homes recently, was 460 00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:09,680 Speaker 3: with the pandemic and the surge and home values. They 461 00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:13,680 Speaker 3: did not have a good sense of the market because 462 00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:15,959 Speaker 3: the market had They'd never seen a market like this, 463 00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:18,640 Speaker 3: and so they gave me the price I said, tech 464 00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:22,680 Speaker 3: twenty percent. On top of that, they argued vehemently against it. 465 00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:23,119 Speaker 8: And you got it. 466 00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:25,359 Speaker 3: I got it fifteen minutes before we even put the 467 00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:28,960 Speaker 3: Senate Christ dead. I don't I think so right with 468 00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:29,760 Speaker 3: this new I don't know. 469 00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:34,840 Speaker 8: I think we're at seven point one right now. Mortgage, 470 00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:37,959 Speaker 8: the fee, yes, yes, yes, the nar yes yes, yes, yes, 471 00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:38,560 Speaker 8: I don't. 472 00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:39,080 Speaker 7: Know, so we'll see. 473 00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:41,920 Speaker 2: All right, Okay, thank you, that's those papers. 474 00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:42,680 Speaker 5: But you need this one. 475 00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:43,440 Speaker 3: You need the next one. 476 00:24:43,480 --> 00:24:44,680 Speaker 8: Tom Oh, yeah, it's a fright. 477 00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:47,399 Speaker 3: You're gonna like this rock group Kiss. 478 00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:51,119 Speaker 8: Yes, okay, they're voting to get Kiss corner on twenty 479 00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:52,680 Speaker 8: third and eighth Avenue in Chelsea. 480 00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:53,120 Speaker 5: It works. 481 00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:55,680 Speaker 8: Some people want it, some people don't. I didn't actually 482 00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:58,280 Speaker 8: realize that's the corner where they're dressed to kill album 483 00:24:58,440 --> 00:24:59,200 Speaker 8: where they took the picure. 484 00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:02,400 Speaker 2: Yes, but you put what they're not going to put 485 00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:03,440 Speaker 2: up like an obelisk. 486 00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:04,840 Speaker 7: It's like. 487 00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:07,439 Speaker 8: Some people don't want it. 488 00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:09,520 Speaker 2: No, listen, this is important. 489 00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:13,679 Speaker 1: I drive home every day and on the hill of 490 00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:17,240 Speaker 1: Spanish Harlem, I come down the hill and there's a 491 00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:20,639 Speaker 1: little green sign of the people from Puerto Rico that 492 00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:22,200 Speaker 1: gave their lives in World War two. 493 00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:24,159 Speaker 5: That's equivalent to kiss. 494 00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:24,400 Speaker 4: Now. 495 00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:26,440 Speaker 5: Come on well on Ludlass Street. 496 00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:29,320 Speaker 3: Guess you're probably one of your favorite bands on Ludlow Street, 497 00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:30,399 Speaker 3: the Beastie Boys. 498 00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:31,280 Speaker 5: They have a sign. 499 00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:34,960 Speaker 2: Lisa Matale, thank you so much. This is a Bloomberg 500 00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:39,480 Speaker 2: Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, 501 00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:43,280 Speaker 2: and international relations. You can also watch the show live 502 00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:47,840 Speaker 2: on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to 503 00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:51,359 Speaker 2: see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am 504 00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:55,440 Speaker 2: Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe 505 00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:58,800 Speaker 2: to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you 506 00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:03,040 Speaker 2: listen and Oh, I'm Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal and 507 00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:04,680 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business App.