1
00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:16,079
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

2
00:00:13,200 --> 00:00:17,040
Speaker 2: Single best idea, What a wonderful day. Just a terrific,

3
00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:20,480
Speaker 2: terrific set of guests, Urine Timmered Fidelity. You know they

4
00:00:20,480 --> 00:00:23,160
Speaker 2: put out decks. Every guest puts out like twenty pages,

5
00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:27,200
Speaker 2: twelve pages, forty pages of smart stuff. That's the competition

6
00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:30,800
Speaker 2: of Global Wall Street in my single page from the

7
00:00:30,840 --> 00:00:34,080
Speaker 2: many decks, that really has my attention is Urie Timor

8
00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:39,479
Speaker 2: at Fidelity looking at use of cash, the earnings that

9
00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:43,320
Speaker 2: come in, what percent goes to dividends, what percent goes

10
00:00:43,360 --> 00:00:46,839
Speaker 2: to share buybacks and numbers. Now seventy three percent of

11
00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:52,040
Speaker 2: earnings of SPX goes to the shareholders in some form

12
00:00:52,159 --> 00:00:54,720
Speaker 2: or another. I think it's just an incredibly important statement

13
00:00:55,400 --> 00:00:58,040
Speaker 2: in this bull market that has its own character. To

14
00:00:58,080 --> 00:01:03,400
Speaker 2: say the least, what a wonderful morning. To welcome back

15
00:01:03,440 --> 00:01:06,800
Speaker 2: Elizabeth Economy to the show. She has been an advisor

16
00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:10,880
Speaker 2: of Gina Ramando at the Department of Commerce here through

17
00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:14,399
Speaker 2: the Biden administration. She's been pretty much invisible is she

18
00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:19,240
Speaker 2: is a government official advising the delicacies of commerce and China,

19
00:01:19,800 --> 00:01:23,319
Speaker 2: and now she has left Commerce and we are thrilled

20
00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:26,479
Speaker 2: to have her in today Elizabeth Economy. Of course, Iconic

21
00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:30,720
Speaker 2: for the River, runs Black on environment pollution in China,

22
00:01:31,240 --> 00:01:33,959
Speaker 2: a whole number of other books as well, But in

23
00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:38,600
Speaker 2: the immediacy, a blistering article in Foreign Affairs magazine, sort

24
00:01:38,640 --> 00:01:43,440
Speaker 2: of a clarion call of America to wake up. Here

25
00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:46,240
Speaker 2: is Doctor Economy on the new China.

26
00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:49,880
Speaker 1: For you know, thirty thirty five years, we had ninety

27
00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:54,680
Speaker 1: percent engagement, ten percent competition. Right now we're basically at

28
00:01:55,280 --> 00:01:58,960
Speaker 1: ninety percent competition and ten percent engagement. I think, actually,

29
00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:01,800
Speaker 1: unfortunately we got it about right at this point. I

30
00:02:01,800 --> 00:02:04,600
Speaker 1: think we need to understand that China is not interested

31
00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:08,800
Speaker 1: in the kind of engagement that we've pursued for thirty

32
00:02:08,840 --> 00:02:11,600
Speaker 1: some years. They have their own vision, They want their

33
00:02:11,639 --> 00:02:14,639
Speaker 1: own norms, their own values, their own interests reflected on

34
00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:15,639
Speaker 1: the global stage.

35
00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:20,280
Speaker 2: Elizabeth Economy, they're writing in Foreign Affairs Magazine is just

36
00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:24,160
Speaker 2: to see that complete interview is just really really important statement.

37
00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:27,640
Speaker 2: As well. We had a colleague of Jim Karen's in

38
00:02:27,680 --> 00:02:31,040
Speaker 2: at Morgan Stanley Vahalken Juja and we talked to him

39
00:02:31,040 --> 00:02:35,240
Speaker 2: about fixed income and later in the interview I dropped

40
00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:38,760
Speaker 2: the nicety of real estate. He mentioned that they're finding

41
00:02:38,800 --> 00:02:42,919
Speaker 2: opportunities away from office buildings. And I brought up two

42
00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:46,600
Speaker 2: stories that are out there right now, the success and

43
00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:50,919
Speaker 2: perhaps fragilities of what Barry Sternal sees at his real

44
00:02:51,040 --> 00:02:55,520
Speaker 2: estate combine. And also, of course the debate about Blackstone

45
00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:59,240
Speaker 2: and Blackstone is ferocious that things are fine with their

46
00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:03,640
Speaker 2: big real ess state combine and others are saying maybe not.

47
00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:07,840
Speaker 2: So this was a really important comment by the how

48
00:03:08,680 --> 00:03:12,799
Speaker 2: Canjuja of Morgan Stanley on office real estate.

49
00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:16,079
Speaker 3: We do think that there are structural issues in that market.

50
00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:19,560
Speaker 3: I think the mark to market is not yet reflecting

51
00:03:20,320 --> 00:03:23,880
Speaker 3: the reality of what office CMBs could be going forward. Again,

52
00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:27,040
Speaker 3: we are public fixed income in our portfolios, so we

53
00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:30,000
Speaker 3: constantly look at what the public fixed income market is

54
00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:32,359
Speaker 3: offering us, and in that market is not yet adjusted.

55
00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:35,600
Speaker 3: Maybe the privates and the loan market has from that end,

56
00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:38,520
Speaker 3: So we are staying away at this point, being very patient.

57
00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:42,640
Speaker 3: At some point the value will becomes superbly attractive to

58
00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:45,120
Speaker 3: us to get back in to earn that extra coupon

59
00:03:45,160 --> 00:03:49,320
Speaker 3: and total return potential. Idiosyncratically, we are seeing certain opportunities

60
00:03:49,360 --> 00:03:52,360
Speaker 3: pop up in certain you know, whether it's San fran

61
00:03:53,040 --> 00:03:56,760
Speaker 3: or parts of New York City as well, but we

62
00:03:56,800 --> 00:03:58,960
Speaker 3: are not making it as an ascid allocation trade in

63
00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:00,520
Speaker 3: our portfolio from Gotti.

64
00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:05,680
Speaker 2: Still important conversation villel Canduja with Morgan Stanley. They're broad

65
00:04:05,680 --> 00:04:09,080
Speaker 2: based fixed income, working with Jim Karen, who's a good

66
00:04:09,080 --> 00:04:12,160
Speaker 2: friend of the show. I really can't say enough about

67
00:04:12,720 --> 00:04:17,320
Speaker 2: the interesting almost soup that we're in into the second quarter,

68
00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:20,440
Speaker 2: staggering to June thirtieth. There's a FED meeting in the

69
00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:22,719
Speaker 2: way of getting to the end of the quarter, and

70
00:04:22,760 --> 00:04:24,760
Speaker 2: of course all the focus right now is on Nvidia.

71
00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:27,799
Speaker 2: I should say thank you Dan Ives for attendance today

72
00:04:27,839 --> 00:04:30,400
Speaker 2: with web Bush. Yes, I know he's an uber bowl

73
00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:33,839
Speaker 2: on AI and on technology, but it was good for

74
00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:37,320
Speaker 2: him to parse the mystery that's out there of what

75
00:04:37,400 --> 00:04:40,640
Speaker 2: AI should do. I should make one point with Bloomberg

76
00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:44,760
Speaker 2: Technology Ed Ludlow having a fabulous week court and in

77
00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:49,000
Speaker 2: Las Vegas, an important conversation with Michael Dell and Jensen

78
00:04:49,000 --> 00:04:54,560
Speaker 2: Waning as well. Look for that out on out on Bloomberg.

79
00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:57,719
Speaker 2: We're an Apple car play. We're on Android, download the

80
00:04:58,240 --> 00:05:03,840
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business app as well, and on YouTube search Bloomberg Podcasts.

81
00:05:04,400 --> 00:05:08,599
Speaker 2: Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts from New York City single Best

82
00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:09,120
Speaker 2: Idea