1 00:00:02,560 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,640 Speaker 2: Welcome back to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance from 3 00:00:15,720 --> 00:00:16,640 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Radio. 4 00:00:16,920 --> 00:00:19,840 Speaker 3: You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm 5 00:00:19,920 --> 00:00:22,959 Speaker 3: David Gerro with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Breaking news 6 00:00:22,960 --> 00:00:26,880 Speaker 3: this afternoon. President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid, Biden 7 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:29,720 Speaker 3: saying he would serve out his term, but endorsed Vice 8 00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:33,480 Speaker 3: President Kamala Harris to take his place as the Democratic nominee. 9 00:00:33,720 --> 00:00:41,400 Speaker 4: Joining us now Bloomberg contributor Genie sheen Zano of Iona University. Genie, 10 00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:46,000 Speaker 4: with this announcement, are the Purple States any less purple? 11 00:00:46,680 --> 00:00:47,600 Speaker 5: I think they. 12 00:00:47,479 --> 00:00:49,840 Speaker 6: Are more up for grabs for the Democrats. 13 00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:52,080 Speaker 5: I think one of the big deciding factors we are 14 00:00:52,159 --> 00:00:55,720 Speaker 5: hearing for President Biden was the fact that you saw 15 00:00:55,880 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 5: states that should be reliably blue or somewhat rely on 16 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:04,000 Speaker 5: blee blue leg Minnesota, New Hampshire, You're talking about my 17 00:01:04,040 --> 00:01:07,119 Speaker 5: home state of New York, New Jersey, that those were 18 00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:09,960 Speaker 5: creeping into the red or as you said, the purple. 19 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:12,600 Speaker 5: And that is a big problem. And I think that's 20 00:01:12,640 --> 00:01:15,080 Speaker 5: where he saw the writing on the wall. If Donald 21 00:01:15,120 --> 00:01:19,200 Speaker 5: Trump expanded that battleground very very difficult for Joe Biden 22 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:21,600 Speaker 5: to win, hence his decision today. 23 00:01:21,880 --> 00:01:24,760 Speaker 4: David Gern, Joe Matthew jump in here with Professor z Enough. 24 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:27,560 Speaker 3: Let me just ask you sort of what you see 25 00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:29,440 Speaker 3: playing out here in the next twenty four hours. So, 26 00:01:29,440 --> 00:01:31,479 Speaker 3: as I say, we had this very quick endorsement from 27 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:33,960 Speaker 3: the president, as Joe and Tom were talking about just 28 00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:36,959 Speaker 3: a few minutes ago. The impulse here is to be 29 00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:38,759 Speaker 3: to get the vice president on the road. She has 30 00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:41,240 Speaker 3: been on the road, has been holding events and rallies. 31 00:01:41,720 --> 00:01:44,480 Speaker 3: How do you see this week beginning? How do you 32 00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:46,320 Speaker 3: see a gaining steam as it continues? 33 00:01:46,520 --> 00:01:49,559 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean Kamala Harris two million dollars in Cape 34 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 5: Cod yesterday. I think the thinking among many Democrats can't 35 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:55,640 Speaker 5: speak for all of them, is that this is a 36 00:01:55,720 --> 00:01:59,360 Speaker 5: quick handover. We saw the endorsement. It is a Joe Biden. 37 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:03,000 Speaker 5: Kamala has campaign so that she is able to take 38 00:02:03,040 --> 00:02:06,640 Speaker 5: over the campaign, the apparatus, the fundraising, which is tremendous 39 00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:10,079 Speaker 5: and move forward. I think the big question hanging over 40 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:13,960 Speaker 5: everybody's head is is there going to be a contest? 41 00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:17,760 Speaker 5: I am skeptical that we will see a contest at 42 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:22,679 Speaker 5: this point, particularly given how quickly President Biden endorsed her, 43 00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:25,880 Speaker 5: but it is still a possibility. The other thing is, 44 00:02:26,200 --> 00:02:29,360 Speaker 5: and the lawyers know this better than I do, is 45 00:02:29,400 --> 00:02:32,360 Speaker 5: that there may be some contest in terms of can 46 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:35,919 Speaker 5: she take over this campaign apparatus. I'm describing it as 47 00:02:35,919 --> 00:02:39,600 Speaker 5: a Biden Harris campaign. It is, but there may be 48 00:02:39,800 --> 00:02:43,760 Speaker 5: legal challenges to that. If there's not, she'll take that over, 49 00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:46,200 Speaker 5: and then I think it's harder for us to see 50 00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:49,120 Speaker 5: a contest. And then the big question is going to 51 00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:52,720 Speaker 5: be what do the delegates do, of course, and who 52 00:02:52,760 --> 00:02:55,280 Speaker 5: does she choose as her vice presidential running mate? 53 00:02:55,280 --> 00:02:56,720 Speaker 4: At this point, Ge, now I want to go to 54 00:02:56,760 --> 00:02:59,720 Speaker 4: your wheelhouse, which is the shades of the Democratic Party 55 00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:03,440 Speaker 4: in nineteen fifty two. You know what, there were shades 56 00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:07,080 Speaker 4: of a Democratic Party. They were all the same. The 57 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:10,720 Speaker 4: difference from Stevenson the SSE's key fower, come on, it 58 00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:14,000 Speaker 4: was next to nothing. It was just geographic. It was regional. 59 00:03:14,320 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 4: Somebody had a pet project in that. We have huge 60 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:21,160 Speaker 4: polarity in the Democratic Party right now. Is the vice 61 00:03:21,240 --> 00:03:23,000 Speaker 4: president a progressive? 62 00:03:23,520 --> 00:03:26,800 Speaker 5: I am not sure that she will choose in that way. 63 00:03:27,600 --> 00:03:30,920 Speaker 5: You know, the reality is as a political scientist that 64 00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:35,560 Speaker 5: vice presidential choices in all of our research seldom make 65 00:03:35,760 --> 00:03:40,560 Speaker 5: any difference whatsoever. That said, this is an astounding situation, 66 00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:44,960 Speaker 5: unprecedented in the modern era, so it likely could. And 67 00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:48,520 Speaker 5: I think for Kamala Harris as she thinks about her choices, 68 00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:52,000 Speaker 5: you know, we are hearing about the tremendous number of 69 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:56,800 Speaker 5: really attractive young Democratic governors across the country, from Shapiro 70 00:03:56,920 --> 00:04:00,560 Speaker 5: to Indy Bashir to down in North Carolina to J. D. 71 00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:05,160 Speaker 5: Pritzker in Illinois. It's a large, large number. I'm excluding 72 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:08,480 Speaker 5: Newsome only because he has the same problem Marco Rubio 73 00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:12,400 Speaker 5: did for Trump in her home state. But that said, 74 00:04:12,480 --> 00:04:14,840 Speaker 5: there's also been a lot of talk about somebody like 75 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:18,320 Speaker 5: Senator Kelly out in Arizona. If I had to guess, 76 00:04:18,400 --> 00:04:21,760 Speaker 5: I think she is going to choose a geographic match 77 00:04:22,400 --> 00:04:25,480 Speaker 5: rather and somebody who she personally can work with, obviously, 78 00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:27,719 Speaker 5: and who she thinks could be president if something should 79 00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:31,440 Speaker 5: happen to her, as opposed to think about the ideological 80 00:04:31,520 --> 00:04:34,279 Speaker 5: split in the Democratic Party. And the only reason I 81 00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:37,279 Speaker 5: say that is because you're right, there is that difference 82 00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:40,360 Speaker 5: in the party, but one thing that unites all Democrats, 83 00:04:40,440 --> 00:04:43,520 Speaker 5: right now is beating Donald Trump. That's at the forefront 84 00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:45,760 Speaker 5: of all of their minds. Okay, and that's why I 85 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:47,760 Speaker 5: think she doesn't go progressive. 86 00:04:47,960 --> 00:04:51,120 Speaker 4: Beautifully, said David Gerra. Terry Ames has said this and 87 00:04:51,640 --> 00:04:55,080 Speaker 4: many others. Well, we're desperate for polls like we've never 88 00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:59,000 Speaker 4: been in our modern political history, Bason. Your experience, David Gurra, 89 00:04:59,279 --> 00:05:02,080 Speaker 4: when does our Audi medians get polls that begin to 90 00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:05,560 Speaker 4: color the strength that the vice president has or the 91 00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:07,000 Speaker 4: strength other candidates have. 92 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:09,440 Speaker 3: It'll be some days until we get enough of them 93 00:05:09,440 --> 00:05:11,240 Speaker 3: that we can have some confidence in them. But we 94 00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:13,800 Speaker 3: know from our reporting and from others reporting that the 95 00:05:13,839 --> 00:05:17,719 Speaker 3: Democratic Party was polling the viability of Kamala Harris as 96 00:05:17,760 --> 00:05:20,000 Speaker 3: a presidential nominee in the days leading up to this. 97 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:21,839 Speaker 3: We know that in this vacuum that the president was 98 00:05:21,839 --> 00:05:24,240 Speaker 3: in trying to figure this out, this was one of 99 00:05:24,279 --> 00:05:26,720 Speaker 3: his concerns and the party's concerns how this would work. 100 00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:28,960 Speaker 3: And so we have had some polling thus far that 101 00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:31,600 Speaker 3: illustrates what that matchup might be like with Donald Trump, 102 00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:33,359 Speaker 3: and we've seen her hold her own in those polls. 103 00:05:33,360 --> 00:05:35,960 Speaker 3: But to answer your question more thoroughly, Tom, I think 104 00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 3: until we get a more robust set of pulling on 105 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:39,440 Speaker 3: this is going to take a few days until we 106 00:05:39,720 --> 00:05:41,720 Speaker 3: figure that out. And I'm just going to note here 107 00:05:41,920 --> 00:05:44,560 Speaker 3: the kind of endorsements and comments on this continue to roll, 108 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:47,000 Speaker 3: and we have a comment now from President Clinton former 109 00:05:47,000 --> 00:05:49,600 Speaker 3: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. They're issuing a joint statement 110 00:05:49,640 --> 00:05:52,760 Speaker 3: here about Kamala Harris. It begins with a preamble of 111 00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:55,000 Speaker 3: them thanking Joe Biden for the service that he's had 112 00:05:55,040 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 3: to the country in this role, most recently but throughout 113 00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:00,200 Speaker 3: his long career. Then they say, we are honor to 114 00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 3: join the president in endorsing Vice President Harris, and we'll 115 00:06:02,960 --> 00:06:06,200 Speaker 3: do whatever we can to support her. GENI, I'm curious 116 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:09,880 Speaker 3: how well Americans know Kamala Harris. You mentioned how insignificant 117 00:06:09,880 --> 00:06:12,240 Speaker 3: the role of the vice president might be historically, how 118 00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:14,920 Speaker 3: little a difference that might make. But she has name 119 00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:17,600 Speaker 3: recognition and that's something here. But how much do most 120 00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:20,000 Speaker 3: people know about her? And her record is Attorney general 121 00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:22,560 Speaker 3: in California and indeeds are of what makes her tick? 122 00:06:22,640 --> 00:06:24,839 Speaker 3: What are the policy agenda items that are most important 123 00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:25,159 Speaker 3: to her? 124 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:26,320 Speaker 7: You know? 125 00:06:26,400 --> 00:06:29,480 Speaker 5: I think on the plus side, Kamala Harris has really 126 00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:32,840 Speaker 5: done a very strong job of going out and talking 127 00:06:32,839 --> 00:06:36,440 Speaker 5: about women's health, pushing back on the Dobbs decision. They're 128 00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:39,200 Speaker 5: right for people. I shouldn't just say women to do 129 00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:42,640 Speaker 5: what they want with their own bodies, and that has 130 00:06:42,680 --> 00:06:46,160 Speaker 5: been something I think many Americans now associate with her. 131 00:06:46,520 --> 00:06:49,039 Speaker 5: That said, to your point, While she did run in 132 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:52,719 Speaker 5: twenty twenty, she was a you know, one term senator 133 00:06:52,760 --> 00:06:56,920 Speaker 5: from California, previously a state attorney general, so well known 134 00:06:56,960 --> 00:07:00,279 Speaker 5: in that state. Not quite as much across the country, though, 135 00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:04,440 Speaker 5: as the first African American woman and Indian American woman 136 00:07:04,760 --> 00:07:08,080 Speaker 5: to achieve the vice presidency, she did get a lot 137 00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:12,280 Speaker 5: of coverage in the announcement of her choice. On the downside, 138 00:07:12,480 --> 00:07:15,880 Speaker 5: she was flagged with the border issue for a long 139 00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:20,400 Speaker 5: time and that has really drawn down people's concerns about 140 00:07:20,440 --> 00:07:24,560 Speaker 5: her ability to do this job. So there's some mixed reaction, 141 00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:27,040 Speaker 5: but she is going to have to go out and 142 00:07:27,160 --> 00:07:30,360 Speaker 5: sort of come out from Joe Biden's shadow, if you will. 143 00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:33,360 Speaker 5: One thing I would note, and I think to her credit, 144 00:07:33,440 --> 00:07:36,320 Speaker 5: throughout all of these last three weeks, she has been 145 00:07:36,400 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 5: on the campaign trail pushing hard for Joe Biden, and 146 00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:43,120 Speaker 5: her people were very clear she is not going to 147 00:07:43,200 --> 00:07:47,520 Speaker 5: get involved in this race to see who should feed him, 148 00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:50,320 Speaker 5: and so that is on the plus side for her. 149 00:07:51,320 --> 00:07:53,320 Speaker 4: I look at where we are and folks who want 150 00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:57,960 Speaker 4: to draw in here not only the expected statements by worthies, 151 00:07:58,160 --> 00:08:02,120 Speaker 4: by Democrats, by Republicans, but across all and take advantage 152 00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:05,679 Speaker 4: of the social media at this historic moment. Tim albert 153 00:08:05,760 --> 00:08:09,239 Speaker 4: is at the Atlantic and he's really done studies, careful 154 00:08:09,280 --> 00:08:13,480 Speaker 4: studies of evangelical America, just among other things. And Geenie, 155 00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:18,559 Speaker 4: here's where Tim Alberta comes out really right now. Really 156 00:08:18,560 --> 00:08:24,119 Speaker 4: cannot overstate how problematic this is for Trump's operation. Why 157 00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:29,720 Speaker 4: is that what radically change changes for the campaign apparatus 158 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:33,240 Speaker 4: of the former president on this Sunday afternoon. 159 00:08:33,880 --> 00:08:37,079 Speaker 5: And Tim who just wrote a beautiful piece on Trump's 160 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:40,000 Speaker 5: two campaign managers, and that's what I think he is 161 00:08:40,040 --> 00:08:44,040 Speaker 5: alluding to. It was very clear and that really well 162 00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:48,240 Speaker 5: done piece about Chris Lasavitas and Susie Wilds that their 163 00:08:48,480 --> 00:08:52,840 Speaker 5: entire campaign wh was shaped by going against Joe Biden 164 00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:57,679 Speaker 5: to have this switch at the last minute after their convention, 165 00:08:57,840 --> 00:09:01,199 Speaker 5: which is the most coverage argued, we will believe Donald 166 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:04,760 Speaker 5: Trump is going to get until if there is another 167 00:09:04,840 --> 00:09:07,600 Speaker 5: debate with a new candidate, they have to shift their 168 00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:10,520 Speaker 5: entire focus. So the uncertainty we're talking about for the 169 00:09:10,559 --> 00:09:14,320 Speaker 5: Democrats is also true on the Republican side. And that's 170 00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:16,920 Speaker 5: what I think he's pouting to. They've got to quickly 171 00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:20,559 Speaker 5: shift their focus now to Carris or somebody else, because 172 00:09:20,559 --> 00:09:21,600 Speaker 5: she is not the nominee. 173 00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:25,160 Speaker 4: Jenny, thank you so much. Through the afternoon, Genie, Professor 174 00:09:25,240 --> 00:09:28,320 Speaker 4: Zana will be with us. She's at Iona University, Jennie, 175 00:09:28,400 --> 00:09:32,200 Speaker 4: She and Zano. A number of others are looking at this, 176 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:34,400 Speaker 4: and one of them is the difference between Ger and 177 00:09:34,480 --> 00:09:36,720 Speaker 4: I were lazy. You know, we do things, We do 178 00:09:36,800 --> 00:09:40,280 Speaker 4: the big take, we do podcasts, we stroll in, we 179 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:43,600 Speaker 4: go to lunch. Laura Davidson never goes to lunch. She 180 00:09:44,000 --> 00:09:47,880 Speaker 4: is the journalist in Washington covering these tensions, and we're 181 00:09:47,920 --> 00:09:50,840 Speaker 4: thrilled that she could join us. Now, Laura, I want 182 00:09:50,880 --> 00:09:54,440 Speaker 4: you to look forward. There are editors across all of 183 00:09:54,480 --> 00:09:58,760 Speaker 4: our major newspapers, all of our magazines saying I need 184 00:09:58,800 --> 00:10:02,040 Speaker 4: something Tuesday or wind Day morning. What is the distinction, 185 00:10:02,200 --> 00:10:05,320 Speaker 4: Laura Davidson, that you would write about for Tuesday or 186 00:10:05,320 --> 00:10:06,160 Speaker 4: Wednesday morning? 187 00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:09,160 Speaker 7: So the next steps are not clear. 188 00:10:09,280 --> 00:10:13,080 Speaker 8: Biden has endorsed Harris, and presumably that means many of 189 00:10:13,120 --> 00:10:16,040 Speaker 8: his delegates will back Harris. But the big unknown is 190 00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:19,600 Speaker 8: will someone else jump into the race. Democratic rules don't 191 00:10:19,600 --> 00:10:23,120 Speaker 8: Party rules don't require that Biden's delegates back Harris. So, 192 00:10:23,280 --> 00:10:27,160 Speaker 8: you know, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan governed Gretchen Whitmer, 193 00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:29,400 Speaker 8: they want to jump in the race. Suddenly, we could 194 00:10:29,400 --> 00:10:33,040 Speaker 8: have a contested convention on our hands. There's a couple, 195 00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:35,440 Speaker 8: you know, things that are that are totally uncertain here. 196 00:10:35,520 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 8: You know, the biggest question is just, you know, where 197 00:10:37,200 --> 00:10:39,199 Speaker 8: do those camps start to fall in line. We're already 198 00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:42,400 Speaker 8: seeing a lot of lawmakers come out and endorsing Kamala Harris. 199 00:10:42,600 --> 00:10:44,920 Speaker 7: She also has an advantage because she can inherit the 200 00:10:44,960 --> 00:10:47,679 Speaker 7: money and the Biden campaign. A new candidate would not 201 00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:49,240 Speaker 7: be able to inherit that money. It would have to 202 00:10:49,280 --> 00:10:50,120 Speaker 7: start from scratch. 203 00:10:50,800 --> 00:10:53,200 Speaker 8: The other thing that's also on everyone's mind too, is 204 00:10:53,240 --> 00:10:55,040 Speaker 8: from a from a global perspective, you know, what does 205 00:10:55,080 --> 00:10:58,000 Speaker 8: this mean for foreign leaders and particularly for adversaries. You know, 206 00:10:58,080 --> 00:11:00,920 Speaker 8: is there some some sort of new, fresh national security 207 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:03,600 Speaker 8: threat that could be injected into the atmosphere, you know, 208 00:11:03,679 --> 00:11:05,959 Speaker 8: with sort of this period of uncertainty around who might 209 00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:08,240 Speaker 8: be in charge of the Democratic Party going. 210 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 3: Forward, Laura, what is the way that we've seen Kamala 211 00:11:11,320 --> 00:11:13,520 Speaker 3: Harris being used over these last couple of weeks tell 212 00:11:13,559 --> 00:11:16,960 Speaker 3: you about the path forward? She has been out campaigning. Obviously, 213 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:19,120 Speaker 3: she's been rather quiet on this issue, but she held 214 00:11:19,120 --> 00:11:21,520 Speaker 3: a very important call with donors on Friday of this week, 215 00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:24,640 Speaker 3: trying to assuage many of their concerns about the prospects 216 00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:27,240 Speaker 3: of this happening as Joe Biden was figuring all of 217 00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:30,000 Speaker 3: this out. Any insight that you can glean just from 218 00:11:30,000 --> 00:11:31,960 Speaker 3: the way that she has been acting or the Democratic 219 00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:33,959 Speaker 3: Party in the campaign have been using her in recent 220 00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:36,600 Speaker 3: days that might foretell what she's going to be like, 221 00:11:36,600 --> 00:11:38,520 Speaker 3: how she's going to approach the campaign going forward. 222 00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:39,560 Speaker 9: You know. 223 00:11:39,559 --> 00:11:41,640 Speaker 8: In addition to that call of donors, we've also seen 224 00:11:41,679 --> 00:11:44,080 Speaker 8: her just more front and center in advertising and you know, 225 00:11:44,320 --> 00:11:45,800 Speaker 8: fundraising appeals that have gone out. 226 00:11:45,720 --> 00:11:47,200 Speaker 7: Via email on social ads. 227 00:11:47,640 --> 00:11:49,680 Speaker 8: She's also been hitting the campaign trail very hard, so 228 00:11:49,720 --> 00:11:51,280 Speaker 8: you can kind of see there was a you know, 229 00:11:51,320 --> 00:11:53,360 Speaker 8: a very quiet ramp up, you know, in case this, 230 00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:56,680 Speaker 8: you know, was the situation that we now find ourselves in. 231 00:11:57,200 --> 00:11:59,480 Speaker 8: What's different about her is she has been very different 232 00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:02,000 Speaker 8: on the campaign trail than Biden. Biden has really focused 233 00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:05,040 Speaker 8: on those blue wall states Michigan and Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. 234 00:12:05,360 --> 00:12:07,319 Speaker 7: She has more focused on some of the southern. 235 00:12:07,040 --> 00:12:10,120 Speaker 8: States, you know, Arizona, Nevada, and the messages that they 236 00:12:10,160 --> 00:12:12,240 Speaker 8: carry are very different. Biden was focused on, you know, 237 00:12:12,320 --> 00:12:15,480 Speaker 8: the economy and jobs on reunion workers. Harris has been 238 00:12:15,520 --> 00:12:17,640 Speaker 8: much more about abortion, that being an issue that she's 239 00:12:17,720 --> 00:12:20,520 Speaker 8: very comfortable talking with and that Biden isn't. 240 00:12:20,559 --> 00:12:23,800 Speaker 7: So there will be sort of a reformulation of you. 241 00:12:23,720 --> 00:12:26,680 Speaker 8: Know how uh, you know, of how Harris tries to 242 00:12:26,679 --> 00:12:28,840 Speaker 8: position herself if she is in fact the nominee and 243 00:12:28,880 --> 00:12:30,480 Speaker 8: of course, you know, if you know all of the 244 00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:32,840 Speaker 8: people who might want to be her running mate, you 245 00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:34,560 Speaker 8: know that's going to be something that party leaders and 246 00:12:34,559 --> 00:12:36,480 Speaker 8: in you delegates are going to be looking at what 247 00:12:36,559 --> 00:12:37,720 Speaker 8: balances her out. 248 00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:40,480 Speaker 7: You know, do you go to someone like Josh Shapiro as. 249 00:12:40,280 --> 00:12:43,200 Speaker 8: A governor of Pennsylvania, they might appeal to to more 250 00:12:43,240 --> 00:12:44,479 Speaker 8: of those blue wall states. 251 00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 7: All of this, you know, parlor parlor talks. 252 00:12:48,240 --> 00:12:51,160 Speaker 8: You know, what's happened now and what's happening on the old. 253 00:12:51,120 --> 00:12:54,320 Speaker 4: Lord Davison, Thank you so much for being saustine as 254 00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:57,240 Speaker 4: I hope you wake you up tomorrow morning at seven am. 255 00:12:57,360 --> 00:13:00,199 Speaker 3: You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm 256 00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:03,360 Speaker 3: David Gurrow with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Plenty ahead, 257 00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:04,960 Speaker 3: This is Bloombak. 258 00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:17,480 Speaker 2: Welcome back to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance from 259 00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:18,480 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Radio. 260 00:13:18,679 --> 00:13:21,600 Speaker 3: You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm 261 00:13:21,640 --> 00:13:24,680 Speaker 3: David Gerrow with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Breaking news 262 00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:28,640 Speaker 3: this afternoon, President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid, Biden 263 00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:31,480 Speaker 3: saying he would serve out his term, but endorsed Vice 264 00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:35,199 Speaker 3: President Kamala Harris to take his place as the Democratic nominee. 265 00:13:35,400 --> 00:13:38,960 Speaker 4: What we're looking for is conversation with people with experience 266 00:13:39,520 --> 00:13:42,760 Speaker 4: and maybe without an angle. And that is absolute definition 267 00:13:43,280 --> 00:13:47,800 Speaker 4: of Wendy Benjamin to say she's deputy Managing editor, it's 268 00:13:47,800 --> 00:13:50,280 Speaker 4: a big long title. She wouldn't come to Bloomberg unless 269 00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:53,440 Speaker 4: it was a big long title. But she was definitive 270 00:13:53,840 --> 00:13:59,880 Speaker 4: at the Associated Press with McClatchy and USA Today is well, 271 00:14:00,280 --> 00:14:06,359 Speaker 4: it's a new media today. You lived the old media. 272 00:14:06,760 --> 00:14:09,679 Speaker 4: LBJ didn't have to put up with this. Truman didn't 273 00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:12,839 Speaker 4: have to put up with this. Let's look forward. How 274 00:14:12,880 --> 00:14:17,079 Speaker 4: do these people position themselves given modern media? 275 00:14:18,880 --> 00:14:21,520 Speaker 1: Well, hi Tom, and thank you for always bringing up 276 00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:22,040 Speaker 1: how long. 277 00:14:21,920 --> 00:14:22,360 Speaker 6: I've been in. 278 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:25,560 Speaker 4: Trying to do it. 279 00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:30,960 Speaker 1: It's all about the history today, But I will tell 280 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:33,680 Speaker 1: you it is. It is a tricky rott, a hope 281 00:14:33,800 --> 00:14:37,040 Speaker 1: for the other Democrats who might who might join the 282 00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:41,600 Speaker 1: race this Today they are all over ex posting how 283 00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:44,120 Speaker 1: grateful they are to the president, without a single word 284 00:14:44,160 --> 00:14:48,520 Speaker 1: about themselves. I think they are all eagerly watching the 285 00:14:48,600 --> 00:14:52,520 Speaker 1: process of what will happen next, whether Kamala Harris does 286 00:14:52,560 --> 00:14:57,160 Speaker 1: become the nominee by fate or by or there will 287 00:14:57,200 --> 00:15:01,480 Speaker 1: be this open process to to choose another nominee, at 288 00:15:01,520 --> 00:15:05,480 Speaker 1: which point these people will definitely start changing their posts 289 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:08,000 Speaker 1: on Twitter to be more forward looking. But today is 290 00:15:08,040 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 1: sort of one of those days where you just focus 291 00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:14,960 Speaker 1: on Biden and whether he did, and don't worry about 292 00:15:15,000 --> 00:15:17,760 Speaker 1: your ambitions for at least publicly for a few. 293 00:15:17,560 --> 00:15:21,160 Speaker 3: Minutes, Wendy Benjamins, and we'll marinate in that for you know, 294 00:15:21,200 --> 00:15:24,000 Speaker 3: twenty four hours, whatever minutes. 295 00:15:24,160 --> 00:15:27,000 Speaker 4: So she when she first came to Washington, she was 296 00:15:27,040 --> 00:15:30,720 Speaker 4: in the octagon bar Willard. Yes, it was the same thing. 297 00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:32,880 Speaker 4: Everything was, you know, we'll think about for a day 298 00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:35,440 Speaker 4: or two, but it was a few minutes. Wendy. 299 00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:38,720 Speaker 3: Nice to speak with you. And I'm curious sort of 300 00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:41,120 Speaker 3: how long it takes for the contours of this campaign 301 00:15:41,160 --> 00:15:43,200 Speaker 3: to change. I was talking with some senior Democrats who 302 00:15:43,280 --> 00:15:46,800 Speaker 3: said their major frustration has been Donald Trump has been 303 00:15:46,800 --> 00:15:49,600 Speaker 3: out campaigning. He's been lying as they saw it, He's 304 00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:52,440 Speaker 3: been lying as we've we've reported. They need a Democrat 305 00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:55,040 Speaker 3: who can push back on that and debate him formally 306 00:15:55,360 --> 00:15:57,640 Speaker 3: in the context of the campaign. They hope on a 307 00:15:57,640 --> 00:16:00,600 Speaker 3: debate stage as well. I'm sure that they see Kamala 308 00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:03,040 Speaker 3: Harris is somebody very capable of doing that. How long 309 00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:05,800 Speaker 3: until we see the contours and the sort of flavor 310 00:16:05,840 --> 00:16:07,920 Speaker 3: and character of this campaign start to change. I guess 311 00:16:07,920 --> 00:16:09,160 Speaker 3: what I'm asking is how long are we going to 312 00:16:09,160 --> 00:16:11,240 Speaker 3: merit it on this the praise for Joe Biden before 313 00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:13,680 Speaker 3: we move on to what is a reset of this 314 00:16:13,760 --> 00:16:14,680 Speaker 3: Democratic campaign? 315 00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:18,760 Speaker 1: Seriously, David, I would start an egg timer right now. 316 00:16:19,520 --> 00:16:21,440 Speaker 1: I think, you know, as we all come back to 317 00:16:21,520 --> 00:16:26,080 Speaker 1: our desk in the office tomorrow, this will already start changing. 318 00:16:26,160 --> 00:16:28,800 Speaker 1: There is no time left. There is no time to 319 00:16:29,520 --> 00:16:31,840 Speaker 1: you know, spend a lot of time thinking about how 320 00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:34,400 Speaker 1: great if you believe that that Joe Biden was, and 321 00:16:34,920 --> 00:16:37,800 Speaker 1: how to move forward. There is only time to get 322 00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 1: this done. The Democratic Convention is in less than a 323 00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:46,200 Speaker 1: month and they have to have a nominee. They also 324 00:16:46,280 --> 00:16:49,920 Speaker 1: were going to virtually nominate Joe Biden's When I say 325 00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:53,600 Speaker 1: virtually mean by phone because the ballot access laws, the 326 00:16:53,640 --> 00:16:57,040 Speaker 1: ballots will be printed in Ohio before the Democratic Convention. 327 00:16:57,440 --> 00:17:00,160 Speaker 1: Ohio a major state that you you know, a lot 328 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:02,520 Speaker 1: of electoral votes that you have to be on the 329 00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:06,600 Speaker 1: ballot for. So I think there will be tomorrow morning. 330 00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:08,760 Speaker 1: I mean Jamie Harris and the d n C chair 331 00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:11,520 Speaker 1: has already put out a safe in saying we're going 332 00:17:11,560 --> 00:17:14,320 Speaker 1: to start the process now figuring out how to do this. 333 00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:20,480 Speaker 1: Remember this is unprecedented, LBJ who I was a child when. 334 00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:21,600 Speaker 10: He did you hear that? 335 00:17:21,640 --> 00:17:29,879 Speaker 4: Tom Yes, Remember he dropped out in March. 336 00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:33,719 Speaker 1: There was still plenty of time to, you know, to 337 00:17:33,880 --> 00:17:36,600 Speaker 1: have primaries with other candidates. I think Iowa and New 338 00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:38,840 Speaker 1: Hampshire were the only states who had voted by them. 339 00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:42,440 Speaker 1: So you know, this is we're just not in that situation. 340 00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:44,360 Speaker 1: We have to have to get to work right away. 341 00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:45,760 Speaker 4: I want to go to the heart of the matter, 342 00:17:46,400 --> 00:17:48,240 Speaker 4: to the both you and this is something I've quoted, 343 00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:49,919 Speaker 4: but I rarely put up the numbers. I'm not going 344 00:17:49,960 --> 00:17:52,320 Speaker 4: to give you the digits. It's just too much to 345 00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:58,040 Speaker 4: contemplate right now. President Trump garnered seventy four million votes 346 00:17:58,320 --> 00:18:02,040 Speaker 4: the last time around the time before that, when he won, 347 00:18:02,560 --> 00:18:06,800 Speaker 4: he garnered sixty five million votes. Basically, he garnered eight 348 00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:12,199 Speaker 4: million votes losing in twenty twenty. David, let me go 349 00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:16,200 Speaker 4: to you first in Pennsylvania. Who has to show up 350 00:18:16,320 --> 00:18:21,240 Speaker 4: now for the Democratic nominee who was not going to 351 00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:24,160 Speaker 4: show up on Saturday for President Biden. 352 00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:27,840 Speaker 3: Well, Pennsylvania's a particularly interesting question. I mean, they need 353 00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:29,480 Speaker 3: everybody to show up, obviously, and you're going to hear 354 00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:31,840 Speaker 3: that in the coming days and weeks. But you know, 355 00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:34,600 Speaker 3: they're going to be appealing to people who might have 356 00:18:34,680 --> 00:18:37,200 Speaker 3: felt disillusioned by the way all of this was unfolding, 357 00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:40,080 Speaker 3: might have felt like, you know, looking at a contrast 358 00:18:40,080 --> 00:18:41,960 Speaker 3: there that we saw in the debate station Atlanta was 359 00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:44,720 Speaker 3: dispeariting them. Made them feel like the Democrats didn't have 360 00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:49,040 Speaker 3: a viable alternative to Republican nominee. We're going to see 361 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:52,680 Speaker 3: a big ground game trying to get everybody to the polls. Tom, 362 00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:54,280 Speaker 3: But you know it's funny. We'll talk to Joe Matthew 363 00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:55,919 Speaker 3: in a few moments. Here is somebody that he mentioned 364 00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:59,680 Speaker 3: on the heels of that Republican National Convention is Roy Cooper, 365 00:18:59,680 --> 00:19:01,960 Speaker 3: the gup of my home state of North Carolinas, somebody 366 00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:03,760 Speaker 3: who's seen as maybe somebody who might be in the 367 00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:06,280 Speaker 3: fold here as well. Picking up on what you're saying 368 00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:08,679 Speaker 3: what Wendy said as well, I think geography matters a 369 00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:10,000 Speaker 3: ton of here, And Wendy, I'd love for you to 370 00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:11,840 Speaker 3: come in and just give me your read on that. 371 00:19:11,840 --> 00:19:14,320 Speaker 3: There's Pennsylvania, there's North Carolina. What are the other estates 372 00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:16,080 Speaker 3: or geographies in this country that are going to be 373 00:19:16,119 --> 00:19:18,720 Speaker 3: of just paramount importance here to Democrats going forward. 374 00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:22,200 Speaker 1: Well, the first one that leads to mind, David is Michigan, 375 00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:27,680 Speaker 1: where Gretchen Whitmer, a very popular Democrat, is governor, two 376 00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:31,119 Speaker 1: term governor, very popular. There's no question she is going 377 00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:34,359 Speaker 1: to run for president someday. I don't think and so 378 00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:38,240 Speaker 1: I think, you know, if they're looking for alternatives beyond Kamala, 379 00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:40,920 Speaker 1: Harris and Gretchen Whitmer becomes a big deal. So is 380 00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:46,280 Speaker 1: Joshapiro in Pennsylvania. You know North Carolina. Yeah, North Carolina 381 00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:48,200 Speaker 1: is one of those states that kind of goes back 382 00:19:48,240 --> 00:19:51,200 Speaker 1: and forth. It tends to be conservative. I don't know 383 00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:54,239 Speaker 1: how it might be good to bring in Hammer and 384 00:19:54,240 --> 00:19:56,680 Speaker 1: Andy Basheer of Kentucky or someone like that too. 385 00:19:56,960 --> 00:19:59,920 Speaker 4: Wendy, I had a crossow thrown at me my head 386 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:02,760 Speaker 4: this morning at breakfast, and I'm going to bring it 387 00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:07,919 Speaker 4: up with you because with no with great respect, Wendy, 388 00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:10,960 Speaker 4: you're the one to answer this question. Now. You just 389 00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:15,760 Speaker 4: mentioned Harris Whitmer is a potential ticket. Is there any 390 00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:19,399 Speaker 4: evidence across the United States of America day today that 391 00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:24,679 Speaker 4: we can elect Anglo Miracle or Teresa May of the 392 00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:27,800 Speaker 4: United Kingdom? Is there any real evidence America is ready 393 00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:29,480 Speaker 4: to elect a woman? 394 00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:35,320 Speaker 1: That's you know, I'm sighing because that's a very difficult question. 395 00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:39,880 Speaker 1: There's certainly no practical reason we shouldn't see we're one 396 00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:43,080 Speaker 1: of the last major countries on Earth not to have 397 00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:48,000 Speaker 1: a female head of state. You know, I certainly think 398 00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:51,480 Speaker 1: it's time for that. And I can't think of a 399 00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:54,760 Speaker 1: reason why we wouldn't elect a woman. Maybe a double 400 00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:59,480 Speaker 1: female ticket might be a little much for America. Crazy 401 00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:02,040 Speaker 1: as that said, since we've elected so many double mail 402 00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:06,160 Speaker 1: tickets in our history. But you know, but I do 403 00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:08,959 Speaker 1: think if the Democrats all right, Mark, it would be 404 00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:12,960 Speaker 1: more like a Harris Super Harris Asher, Harris Shapiro. 405 00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:15,919 Speaker 3: Wanty Benjaminson not I have thrown a virtual croissant at 406 00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:17,600 Speaker 3: you from DC, but she did. 407 00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:22,080 Speaker 4: She said, that's what my expense account has is virtual croissants. 408 00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:25,640 Speaker 4: What I am in Washington, d C. Saying it will 409 00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:28,320 Speaker 4: be a long night for your leading our coverage in Washington. 410 00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:31,480 Speaker 4: Wendy Benjamin, she is the queen of print. Thank you 411 00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:34,119 Speaker 4: so much, Wendy for joining us today. We welcome all 412 00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:38,040 Speaker 4: of you across Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg Radio on YouTube. We're 413 00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:40,080 Speaker 4: making light of it on a Sunday afternoon, but it 414 00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:43,440 Speaker 4: is the most serious point for the nation. It is 415 00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:48,119 Speaker 4: a democratic party, without question, in chaos, the transition from 416 00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:51,800 Speaker 4: an eighty one year old president, he endorses his vice president. 417 00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:54,399 Speaker 4: David's going to cover that in a moment, and some 418 00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:56,399 Speaker 4: of the news flow here we welcome all to you, 419 00:21:56,480 --> 00:22:00,480 Speaker 4: David Gerra and Tom Keen in Washington. Joe you to 420 00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:03,159 Speaker 4: partake here in a moment, and Kaylen Lines is getting 421 00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:07,000 Speaker 4: ready again for the television broadcast this evening. We hope 422 00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:10,760 Speaker 4: to have her on as our schedule allows. Many other 423 00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:13,760 Speaker 4: good people with conversation is well. Thank you for the 424 00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:17,800 Speaker 4: comments out on Twitter, on YouTube and live chat as well. 425 00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:20,879 Speaker 4: David Gera, it was a two step process. The shock, 426 00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:23,600 Speaker 4: which I did not expect on a Sunday afternoon. I 427 00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:27,240 Speaker 4: kept waiting for an LBJ Oval Office moment didn't happen, 428 00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:30,720 Speaker 4: and then the endorsement of the Vice president. 429 00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:33,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, it was a very funny interregnum. So let's start 430 00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:35,840 Speaker 3: with the announcement itself. As you say, you know, I 431 00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:37,439 Speaker 3: was waiting over the course of the weekend for that 432 00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:39,159 Speaker 3: announcement to come out from the White House. You know, 433 00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:41,160 Speaker 3: perhaps there'll be an Oval office speech. As you say, 434 00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:42,920 Speaker 3: I think. I think we might still get that later 435 00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:45,399 Speaker 3: this week. In his letter to the American people, the 436 00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:48,240 Speaker 3: President saying that in the coming days he'll say more 437 00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:50,159 Speaker 3: about his decision to do this. I think yet we 438 00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:52,440 Speaker 3: will get that kind of formal moment for him to 439 00:22:52,480 --> 00:22:54,560 Speaker 3: spell all of this out the way that he wants to. 440 00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:57,480 Speaker 3: But reading that letter one page in length, just a 441 00:22:57,480 --> 00:23:00,600 Speaker 3: few paragraphs, there was no mention of Kamala Harra Joe 442 00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:03,800 Speaker 3: Biden's vice president. Then a few minutes past, a few 443 00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:06,720 Speaker 3: more minutes passed and we got his full throat endorsement 444 00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:09,879 Speaker 3: yes via X of Kamala Harris. He's going to support 445 00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:13,159 Speaker 3: her in the campaign for president. Now we're beginning to 446 00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:17,159 Speaker 3: piece together a how many Democrats come on board with that. 447 00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:19,000 Speaker 3: It seems like in the last hour and a half 448 00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:22,159 Speaker 3: or so many of them have Many prominent Democrats, gray beards, 449 00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:25,320 Speaker 3: younger members of Congress, those who have been rather quiet 450 00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:27,040 Speaker 3: during the course of this as they've waited for this 451 00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:29,280 Speaker 3: to get hammered out by the President who has been 452 00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:32,080 Speaker 3: at his home in Rohobe with be Beach, Delaware, kind 453 00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:34,280 Speaker 3: of figuring all of this out. Thinking through all of this, 454 00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:36,960 Speaker 3: we've heard from them. We'll see how much more that coalesces. 455 00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:39,600 Speaker 3: And then we'll see, as we've been talking about, what 456 00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:41,800 Speaker 3: other interests there may or may not be from other 457 00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:44,440 Speaker 3: people in the Democratic Party to run, and then who 458 00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:46,320 Speaker 3: Kamala Harris, if she is the nomine would pick for 459 00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:47,800 Speaker 3: her vice presidential running mate. 460 00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:50,200 Speaker 4: And now folks, we will digress, and again we welcome 461 00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:52,080 Speaker 4: all of you to the shock of this news. The 462 00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:54,720 Speaker 4: path forward for the nation, the path forward for the 463 00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:58,720 Speaker 4: Democratic Party, and the pathword only Joe Matthew knows how 464 00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:04,200 Speaker 4: big a piggy ban President Biden has. We're still working on, Joe. 465 00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:06,360 Speaker 4: I see, Oh, let me go to you on this aid. Yeah. 466 00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:09,760 Speaker 3: No, it is a sizeable pigure. It's over one hundred, 467 00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:12,240 Speaker 3: over two hundred and fifty two hundred forty million dollars, 468 00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:15,560 Speaker 3: so a little bit behind Donald Trump, but many, many 469 00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:19,199 Speaker 3: millions of dollars. And as we heard from Lord Davison 470 00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:21,159 Speaker 3: just a moment ago, Kamala Harris has been on the 471 00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:24,880 Speaker 3: campaign trill during this uncomfortable period, raising a lot of money. 472 00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:27,200 Speaker 3: She's on Cape cod presently where she raised two million 473 00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:29,920 Speaker 3: dollars at this most recent fundraiser. So they have been 474 00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:33,400 Speaker 3: out there beating the bushes, trying to get money from donors. 475 00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:35,760 Speaker 3: And as I say that, I have to acknowledge the 476 00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:39,320 Speaker 3: fact that as all of this unfolded, there was concern 477 00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:41,720 Speaker 3: among rank and file Democrats. There was, as we saw, 478 00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:44,760 Speaker 3: concern among members of the House, forty plus of them 479 00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:47,399 Speaker 3: coming out suggesting that Joe Biden should do this members 480 00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:50,280 Speaker 3: of the Senate as well, but also from donors. You know, 481 00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:54,119 Speaker 3: what we've heard is that the chief fundraisers for the 482 00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:56,399 Speaker 3: bind reelection campaign have been fielding all kinds of questions 483 00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:59,119 Speaker 3: from their donors. Jeffre Katzenberg chief among them. He the 484 00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:01,439 Speaker 3: main fundraiser. This was something that they were agitating or 485 00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:02,560 Speaker 3: having to deal with as well. 486 00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:04,840 Speaker 4: For mere mortals. David, you're used to this, Joe Matthews 487 00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:07,200 Speaker 4: used to this as well. For me. The idea of 488 00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:10,880 Speaker 4: you know, X millions of dollars, it's sitting in a bank, 489 00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:15,879 Speaker 4: They're going to spend it evenly and rapidly, ads and 490 00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:18,800 Speaker 4: all the rest of the apparatus, and that the vice 491 00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:24,200 Speaker 4: president can pick up that slug of money. Correct she can? 492 00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:25,520 Speaker 3: They are adamant that she can. 493 00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:29,679 Speaker 4: And what can Governor Shapiro Pennsylvania do. Sell a bottle 494 00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:32,320 Speaker 4: of yengling and try to get through What's he do? 495 00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:34,280 Speaker 3: They would have to sell many trucks of yongling to 496 00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:36,399 Speaker 3: catch up. But this has been what those who have 497 00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:38,960 Speaker 3: supported Kamala Harris being the nominee have said all along 498 00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:41,840 Speaker 3: is this is the Biden Harris campaign. Her name is 499 00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:44,040 Speaker 3: on the ticket. She's helped raise this fire. She could 500 00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:45,880 Speaker 3: get that money and others couldn't, and that has been 501 00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:48,840 Speaker 3: one of the principal reasons why they've said in this 502 00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:51,159 Speaker 3: period when there's been a lot of haggling, she's the 503 00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:54,080 Speaker 3: clear choice because she has access to it. Look, you know, well, Tom, 504 00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:57,679 Speaker 3: these campaigns are expensive campaigns cost many millions of dollars. 505 00:25:57,800 --> 00:25:59,359 Speaker 3: To not have that and to start with what you know, 506 00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:02,480 Speaker 3: many weeks to go into the election would be incredibly dis. 507 00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:04,280 Speaker 4: Is it August tenth of Chicago, Pittsburgh? 508 00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:06,720 Speaker 3: That might be Jackson Hole, but it's a busy I 509 00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:08,959 Speaker 3: can't keep track of it. You're listening to a special 510 00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:12,040 Speaker 3: edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm David Gurrow with Tom Keen 511 00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:12,880 Speaker 3: and Joe Matthew. 512 00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:15,400 Speaker 6: Plenty ahead, This is Bloomberg. 513 00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:28,400 Speaker 2: Welcome back to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance from 514 00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:29,399 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Radio. 515 00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:32,480 Speaker 3: You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm 516 00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:35,600 Speaker 3: David Gerrow with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Breaking news 517 00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:38,880 Speaker 3: this afternoon, President Joe Biden abandoned his re election bid, 518 00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:42,080 Speaker 3: Biden saying he would serve out his term, but endorsed 519 00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:45,000 Speaker 3: Vice President Kamala Harris to take his place as the 520 00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:46,199 Speaker 3: Democratic nominee. 521 00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:49,399 Speaker 4: We're here at this very historic moment for the country, 522 00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:51,359 Speaker 4: and we welcome all of you, and we really appreciate 523 00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:55,720 Speaker 4: our guests for the effort that they've made. This guest 524 00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:59,040 Speaker 4: has said the single most important thing I've heard from 525 00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:05,160 Speaker 4: that horrific debate for President Biden, Terry Haynes appee has said, Tom, 526 00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:09,600 Speaker 4: all that matters are the polls. Mister Haynes joins us. Now. 527 00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:12,679 Speaker 4: I can't say enough about following him on LinkedIn for 528 00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:18,439 Speaker 4: intelligent summaries. Whatever your political persuasion, Terry Haynes, do you 529 00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:21,359 Speaker 4: have polls? And when do you and the vice president 530 00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:22,440 Speaker 4: get them? 531 00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:27,879 Speaker 9: Just you know, there's a bunch of folks pinging me 532 00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:30,800 Speaker 9: and pelting me right now saying you realize, of course 533 00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:34,399 Speaker 9: Harris polls worse than Biden. There's some evidence to that effect. 534 00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:37,880 Speaker 9: There's also some evidence that they pull better. My advice 535 00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:41,119 Speaker 9: all along has been, you know, ignore the ignore the 536 00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:44,160 Speaker 9: green eye shade stuff. You're you're you know, you're now 537 00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:48,720 Speaker 9: from from Washington political technicians who love talking about this 538 00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:50,600 Speaker 9: stuff and how you can dial it up or dial 539 00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:54,399 Speaker 9: it down, Harris is going to be in uncharted waters 540 00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:57,439 Speaker 9: if indeed it is Harris, and I imagine that the 541 00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:01,640 Speaker 9: energy that comes from this campaign and Democrats rallying around her, 542 00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:04,760 Speaker 9: you know, really give Democrats a big shot in the 543 00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:07,400 Speaker 9: arm here and on poles. Last thing I would say 544 00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:12,240 Speaker 9: is the two way national average two day before Biden 545 00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:15,320 Speaker 9: dropped out was Trump up by three, with a bunch 546 00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:19,000 Speaker 9: of polls that have margins of error that are bigger 547 00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:22,360 Speaker 9: than that. So you know, Harris is not far off 548 00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:26,480 Speaker 9: the scent here. And my immediate prediction is she probably 549 00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:27,360 Speaker 9: gets a little stronger. 550 00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:29,680 Speaker 3: Talk about that strength if you would, Terry, It's great 551 00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:31,320 Speaker 3: to speak with you as always, And I've had a 552 00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:34,359 Speaker 3: lot of people say to me, look, Kamala Harris hasn't 553 00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:36,600 Speaker 3: been able to campaign as much as she might like to, 554 00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:39,080 Speaker 3: might not have as big a policy portfolio as she 555 00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:41,840 Speaker 3: wants to, in part because of the relationship that she 556 00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:44,479 Speaker 3: has with the president, in part because they don't want 557 00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:46,160 Speaker 3: her to be outfront. They want to be out front. 558 00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:49,040 Speaker 3: So that wall drops she's able to get out there. 559 00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:51,239 Speaker 3: What are we likely to see from her? I mean, 560 00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:54,360 Speaker 3: I've watched her at some events recently. She is a 561 00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:57,440 Speaker 3: powerful speaker, she's able, she's very facile with everything that's 562 00:28:57,440 --> 00:29:00,560 Speaker 3: in her portfolio and more, what do you expect her 563 00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:02,400 Speaker 3: on the campaign trail to look like? 564 00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:02,760 Speaker 4: Now? 565 00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:06,120 Speaker 9: My advice all along has been I wrote a piece 566 00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:08,880 Speaker 9: about this back in February at one point, I believe 567 00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:11,680 Speaker 9: it or not, about how you know you basically underestimate 568 00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:14,600 Speaker 9: Harris at your peril. It's very fashionable in Washington to 569 00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:16,920 Speaker 9: walk around and say, well, you know, she doesn't speak 570 00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:19,400 Speaker 9: so well. And there's plenty of examples of that, and 571 00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:22,280 Speaker 9: you'll still now see them all in campaign advertisements in 572 00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:25,720 Speaker 9: the next four months. But you know where she's really strong. 573 00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:28,880 Speaker 9: She's really strong, and it's a and it dovetails very 574 00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:32,840 Speaker 9: nicely into the Democratic message, which is on all on 575 00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:37,479 Speaker 9: all the social issues that are the core of the 576 00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:41,600 Speaker 9: core of the Democratic message. And I would expect her 577 00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:44,240 Speaker 9: to hammer away at that. And that is a powerful 578 00:29:44,280 --> 00:29:47,240 Speaker 9: message not only to Democratic base, but it's an enticing 579 00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:51,600 Speaker 9: message to a lot of independent voters as well. One 580 00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:55,120 Speaker 9: thing that the Democrats have to do in order to 581 00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:59,280 Speaker 9: win is to keep but excuse me, keep Trump underwater 582 00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:04,160 Speaker 9: within the endants and Harris. Harris being a hugely forceful 583 00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:08,080 Speaker 9: advocate on social issues of all kinds. And you know, 584 00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:10,080 Speaker 9: it is something I think you'll just you'll see them 585 00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:11,280 Speaker 9: be relentless. 586 00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:14,560 Speaker 4: At I once flunk to test Terry Haynes on vice 587 00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:18,000 Speaker 4: presidential history. I couldn't name any of them. And there's 588 00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:20,760 Speaker 4: this heritage back to eighteen oh two or whatever that 589 00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:25,120 Speaker 4: they're just vice presidents and they'll be Okay, to the 590 00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:28,040 Speaker 4: point you made with David Gerrow moments ago, do we 591 00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:31,600 Speaker 4: really know who the prosecutor from California is? 592 00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:34,320 Speaker 5: No? 593 00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:35,160 Speaker 9: I don't think we do. 594 00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:37,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree, she thinks she's. 595 00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:41,320 Speaker 9: Had very much a meteoric rise, and but you know, 596 00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:43,840 Speaker 9: you haven't seen her out there on her own, really shining. 597 00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:46,440 Speaker 9: And she's never been in a contested election before really 598 00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:49,760 Speaker 9: other than her first one where she barely won. But 599 00:30:49,880 --> 00:30:52,480 Speaker 9: you know, California being the you know, among the bluest 600 00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:56,440 Speaker 9: of blue states, this is a very different this is 601 00:30:56,480 --> 00:30:58,360 Speaker 9: a very different arena. 602 00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:02,640 Speaker 3: It's a it's a very different arena. And you know, 603 00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:04,280 Speaker 3: if I could, I'd love for you to take a 604 00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:05,680 Speaker 3: step at the question that Tom asked me so I 605 00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:07,600 Speaker 3: can answer with some authority the next time he asked me, 606 00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:09,520 Speaker 3: but who is she? Who is she looking for? We 607 00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:11,120 Speaker 3: know what the process is going to be like. She's 608 00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:13,320 Speaker 3: going to meet with all of these folks whose names 609 00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:15,920 Speaker 3: we've seen floated in recent days. See who she gets 610 00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:18,800 Speaker 3: along with, Who might bring what to the ticket? What's yours? 611 00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:20,640 Speaker 3: If you had to game that out, if if you 612 00:31:20,680 --> 00:31:22,200 Speaker 3: had to look at the pluses and minuses of what 613 00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:24,880 Speaker 3: each offers. Who does she need to pick? What type 614 00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:26,200 Speaker 3: of running mate does she need to pick? 615 00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:30,440 Speaker 9: She needs a centrist swing state governor? Would be my 616 00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:32,200 Speaker 9: is my instinct. 617 00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:35,280 Speaker 4: So you're in Philadelphia. I think they've won sixty games 618 00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:37,240 Speaker 4: so far this year. The Phillies are just killing the 619 00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:39,800 Speaker 4: Terry Haynes, you're in Philadelphia. 620 00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:43,640 Speaker 9: My Pittsburgh Pirates to beat them Friday night and Saturday night, so. 621 00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:46,440 Speaker 3: They're in their surveillance correction here on Sunday. 622 00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:49,720 Speaker 4: And their stadium is far their ball field is far 623 00:31:49,760 --> 00:31:54,640 Speaker 4: more elegant than in Philadelphia. In Philadelphia, Terry Hayes, you 624 00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:57,040 Speaker 4: got to go out in the suburbs and I get 625 00:31:57,080 --> 00:32:01,200 Speaker 4: that there's an issue that's demonstrably proven, abortion and changes votes. 626 00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:06,120 Speaker 4: What's the next issue after that? For a nominee such 627 00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:07,719 Speaker 4: as Mazaris. 628 00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:10,160 Speaker 9: I think what you have to do is you you 629 00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:13,080 Speaker 9: really have to goose the uh you really have to 630 00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:15,560 Speaker 9: goose the urban votes. So it's going to be uh, 631 00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:20,600 Speaker 9: civil rights issues attacked from the Supreme Court. Uh, you know, 632 00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:21,760 Speaker 9: all those sorts of things. 633 00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:22,160 Speaker 4: Uh. 634 00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:24,800 Speaker 9: And and you and you have to be you have 635 00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:27,080 Speaker 9: to be nuanced. You have to be firm but nuanced 636 00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:32,520 Speaker 9: on on immigration because uh, in order to attract Hispanic 637 00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:36,720 Speaker 9: voters back. Uh, you know, there's uh, you know, we're 638 00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:40,280 Speaker 9: we're not that far away from uh, you know, the 639 00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:44,200 Speaker 9: old style machine politics. But there will still be efforts 640 00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:46,840 Speaker 9: to to goose that turnout. But what gets people going 641 00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:50,920 Speaker 9: uh will be uh, you know, will be abortion, will 642 00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:54,040 Speaker 9: be social programs, will be kind of the traditional democratic 643 00:32:54,360 --> 00:33:00,240 Speaker 9: uh uh programs combined with the strong thought that what 644 00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:02,120 Speaker 9: Trump and the Republicans want to do is get rid 645 00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:02,880 Speaker 9: of all that stuff. 646 00:33:03,040 --> 00:33:05,280 Speaker 3: Let me ask you about how Democrats capitalize on the 647 00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:07,200 Speaker 3: timing of this. And I mean I could look back 648 00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:09,760 Speaker 3: and I could say, look, if this had happened during 649 00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:11,720 Speaker 3: the course of the RNC, just think about what that 650 00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:14,160 Speaker 3: final night would have been like with Donald Trump speaking, 651 00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:15,960 Speaker 3: if Joe Biden had issued this letter, now that he 652 00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:18,440 Speaker 3: didn't do this Vietnaval Office address, he could have sent 653 00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:19,600 Speaker 3: this letter out on Thursday. 654 00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:21,320 Speaker 4: Wow, that would have. 655 00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:23,560 Speaker 3: Upended all of the coverage that this had gotten, that 656 00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:26,880 Speaker 3: speech had gotten. All right, we're moving past that. We 657 00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:29,760 Speaker 3: get this letter on a Sunday. How do Democrats seize 658 00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:33,280 Speaker 3: the spotlight and the narrative going forward? Here you have 659 00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:36,480 Speaker 3: the former president weighing in that, you know, suggesting that 660 00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:39,720 Speaker 3: Joe Biden should just step aside from his position entirely. Now, 661 00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:42,200 Speaker 3: what did Democrats need to do to reclaim the narrative? 662 00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:45,560 Speaker 9: Well, firstly, they need to call lesser on Harris. And 663 00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:48,479 Speaker 9: I'm not sure the extent. I mean, this obviously just happened, 664 00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:51,200 Speaker 9: but I'm not sure of the degree that they that 665 00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:55,440 Speaker 9: they want to. I thought Biden's I thought Biden initially 666 00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:58,120 Speaker 9: not endorsing her, and then ten minutes later somebody pointing 667 00:33:58,160 --> 00:33:59,480 Speaker 9: out to him that, you know, you need to go 668 00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:03,160 Speaker 9: endorse her. Uh said volumes about the disarray not only 669 00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:07,760 Speaker 9: in Biden world but among Democrats. Now that said, if 670 00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:10,440 Speaker 9: I was Harris, I'd be I'd be out there this 671 00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:14,400 Speaker 9: afternoon acting like I was the nominee and uh, you know, 672 00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:16,640 Speaker 9: and I'd be going down to uh, you know, the 673 00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:20,759 Speaker 9: Biden campaign head quarters kicking some rear ends too, But 674 00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:24,120 Speaker 9: the sooner that she acts as as the presumptive nominee, 675 00:34:24,160 --> 00:34:24,839 Speaker 9: the better for her. 676 00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:29,800 Speaker 4: First this is critical. Terry unfortunately got one minute left. 677 00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:32,600 Speaker 4: How will we how WI How will she be greeted 678 00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:35,239 Speaker 4: by loyal Biden operatives. 679 00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:46,280 Speaker 9: She'll be greeted with publicly with rapture and privately hugs 680 00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:50,120 Speaker 9: and kisses. But privately they'll feel like, I mean, she 681 00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:53,399 Speaker 9: wasn't part of the part of the coup, but they'll 682 00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:57,560 Speaker 9: they'll feel abashed that their their their guy isn't there anymore. 683 00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:00,600 Speaker 4: I got to leave it there. I look forward to 684 00:35:00,600 --> 00:35:04,320 Speaker 4: your LinkedIn summaries that you do there just really really exquisite. 685 00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:09,040 Speaker 4: Terry Haynes with Pangaea, a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance, 686 00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:12,040 Speaker 4: and we say good morning and good afternoon to all 687 00:35:12,080 --> 00:35:14,759 Speaker 4: of you. Good morning of course in Asia, waking up 688 00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:17,279 Speaker 4: very early in the morning to the news that the 689 00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:20,239 Speaker 4: President of the United States will step aside and he 690 00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:22,880 Speaker 4: will not seek a second term. And of course the 691 00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:26,280 Speaker 4: operative idea here is it is late in the cycle. 692 00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:30,880 Speaker 4: He endorses the vice president from California, Kamala Harris, David 693 00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:32,880 Speaker 4: Gerr and Tom Keane with you in New York will 694 00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:35,480 Speaker 4: have any number of guests in this hour stay with 695 00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:38,520 Speaker 4: our special broadcast from five to seven that will be 696 00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:41,840 Speaker 4: on Bloomberg Television. We welcome all of you on television 697 00:35:41,880 --> 00:35:46,000 Speaker 4: on radio across this nation as well. David, we have 698 00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:49,239 Speaker 4: an esteem guest to bring. And now she survived Milwaukee, 699 00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:53,160 Speaker 4: she's getting ready for Chicago. She's two I think it 700 00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:55,640 Speaker 4: was two weeks in Crete. As she got ready for Chicago, 701 00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:58,200 Speaker 4: ripped up that trip. Why don't you bring in Kaylee 702 00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:00,160 Speaker 4: Lines with her observision. 703 00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:02,239 Speaker 3: Of course, the co host of Balance of Power here 704 00:36:02,280 --> 00:36:04,880 Speaker 3: on Bloomberg Radio and Bloomberg Television. As you say, she 705 00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:07,799 Speaker 3: was at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee and did 706 00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:10,640 Speaker 3: one of the craziest teleportations I've seen in my life, 707 00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:12,560 Speaker 3: Shinjo getting back to Washington for a full day of 708 00:36:12,600 --> 00:36:14,760 Speaker 3: coverage on Friday. As we all were kind of watching 709 00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:17,560 Speaker 3: to see how this would play out, Katie Lines, let 710 00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:18,960 Speaker 3: me ask you, first of all, sort of what you're 711 00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:21,600 Speaker 3: watching for here as you look at these reactions come 712 00:36:21,640 --> 00:36:25,840 Speaker 3: in from Democrats, senior democrats, junior democrats. What those statements 713 00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:27,880 Speaker 3: and aggregate are telling you about the direction of all 714 00:36:27,920 --> 00:36:28,160 Speaker 3: of this. 715 00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:31,000 Speaker 11: Well, I think what's more telling at this point, David, 716 00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:33,080 Speaker 11: is that the people who have not yet in a 717 00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:37,000 Speaker 11: statement given a direct endorsement of Kamala Harris, including most 718 00:36:37,040 --> 00:36:40,160 Speaker 11: of the senior leadership of Democrats in Congress, the House 719 00:36:40,200 --> 00:36:43,560 Speaker 11: Democratic Leader Hackeing Jeffreys, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, have 720 00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:46,160 Speaker 11: not explicitly endorsed her, as Joe Biden did about ten 721 00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:48,319 Speaker 11: minutes after initially putting out the statement that he wasn't 722 00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:51,440 Speaker 11: running for reelection. So those will be some key figures 723 00:36:51,480 --> 00:36:53,719 Speaker 11: to watch, as well as those that we'd understood had 724 00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:56,160 Speaker 11: been in conversation as to whether or not they could 725 00:36:56,239 --> 00:36:59,200 Speaker 11: potentially be the Democratic nominee themselves. Think about the governor's 726 00:36:59,239 --> 00:37:03,000 Speaker 11: Davie pritzkerve Illinois, Gavin Newsom of California, even the likes 727 00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:06,600 Speaker 11: of Joshapiro and Pennsylvania Gretcher Whittmer in Michigan. We haven't 728 00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:11,520 Speaker 11: really heard from them saying anything other than Kaylee service 729 00:37:11,560 --> 00:37:12,160 Speaker 11: as president. 730 00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:14,640 Speaker 4: What are they going to say, Mister Pritzker is in 731 00:37:14,719 --> 00:37:19,279 Speaker 4: Illinois with a massive population loss, Chicago's flat on its back, 732 00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:23,120 Speaker 4: forget about the convention and all that. What is going 733 00:37:23,200 --> 00:37:25,839 Speaker 4: to be their response one day from now? Five days 734 00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:28,840 Speaker 4: from now, ten days from now to a vice president 735 00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:32,800 Speaker 4: with what, David a quarter of a billion dollars? What 736 00:37:33,520 --> 00:37:34,640 Speaker 4: are they what are they going to say? 737 00:37:34,719 --> 00:37:37,800 Speaker 11: Kaylee lines, Well, that's a very good point. The money 738 00:37:37,920 --> 00:37:39,960 Speaker 11: is a huge factor here. Because Harris had been part 739 00:37:39,960 --> 00:37:42,239 Speaker 11: of the Biden Harris campaign. She has access to that 740 00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:44,480 Speaker 11: war chest with hundreds of millions of dollars in it, 741 00:37:44,560 --> 00:37:46,640 Speaker 11: more easily than any other candidate would. Of course, if 742 00:37:46,640 --> 00:37:49,000 Speaker 11: we're thinking about JB. Pritzker, who has his own personal 743 00:37:49,040 --> 00:37:51,760 Speaker 11: fortune that held theoretically could tap to help sellth fund, 744 00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:55,160 Speaker 11: that's a separate conversation. But really it's going to be 745 00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:57,200 Speaker 11: about what happens in the coming days. Is we are 746 00:37:57,239 --> 00:37:59,080 Speaker 11: not working with a great deal of time here at 747 00:37:59,080 --> 00:38:01,440 Speaker 11: the convention. If four weeks from tomorrow, it starts on 748 00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:03,319 Speaker 11: August nineteenth, so that is not a lot of time 749 00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:06,880 Speaker 11: to get together support for a bid to go against 750 00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:09,600 Speaker 11: Harris in an open convention if one wanted to. Of course, 751 00:38:09,600 --> 00:38:11,600 Speaker 11: we're going to be watching very carefully for polling in 752 00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:14,200 Speaker 11: the next few weeks to see how a Kamala Harris 753 00:38:14,280 --> 00:38:16,479 Speaker 11: at the top of the ticket pulls against a Trump 754 00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:18,719 Speaker 11: advance ticket. Since we know that jd Vance is Donald 755 00:38:18,719 --> 00:38:21,840 Speaker 11: Trump's election to be the vice presidential nominee, and that 756 00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:25,000 Speaker 11: polling could dictate the feeling moving forward toward the convention 757 00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:26,799 Speaker 11: as to whether or not someone else needs to try 758 00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:29,719 Speaker 11: to contest this and step in if Kamala Harris is 759 00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:31,759 Speaker 11: not felt to be the strongest candidate to defeat Trump 760 00:38:31,840 --> 00:38:33,000 Speaker 11: in November. 761 00:38:32,640 --> 00:38:35,560 Speaker 4: Kaylee delicate question one of the Cardinal. 762 00:38:35,239 --> 00:38:37,919 Speaker 11: Rules and a democratic prim Republicans are going. 763 00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:43,160 Speaker 4: To a legal challenge to a president. On Bloomberg Television 764 00:38:43,280 --> 00:38:46,880 Speaker 4: and Bloomberg Radio worldwide from her studios in Washington in 765 00:38:46,960 --> 00:38:49,719 Speaker 4: New York, Joe Matthew, David Gurra, and Tom King with 766 00:38:49,840 --> 00:38:53,960 Speaker 4: this special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. Joe Matthew and Katie. 767 00:38:53,760 --> 00:38:56,759 Speaker 3: Lyons, You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. 768 00:38:56,880 --> 00:38:59,520 Speaker 3: I'm David Ura with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. 769 00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:00,719 Speaker 9: At this. 770 00:39:10,200 --> 00:39:13,839 Speaker 2: Welcome back to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. From 771 00:39:13,960 --> 00:39:14,920 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Radio. 772 00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:18,080 Speaker 3: You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm 773 00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:21,200 Speaker 3: David Gerro with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Breaking news 774 00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:25,120 Speaker 3: this afternoon, President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid Biden, 775 00:39:25,239 --> 00:39:27,960 Speaker 3: saying he would serve out his term, but endorsed Vice 776 00:39:28,000 --> 00:39:32,239 Speaker 3: President Kamala Harris to take his place as the Democratic nominee. 777 00:39:31,880 --> 00:39:34,000 Speaker 12: The great Nathan Dean. I'm just delighted to hear that 778 00:39:34,040 --> 00:39:36,520 Speaker 12: we have a dad with us, as we call him 779 00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:40,400 Speaker 12: in Washington here, because Nathan is in touch with the clients, 780 00:39:40,960 --> 00:39:43,640 Speaker 12: the people who use the terminal, the people who will 781 00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:46,560 Speaker 12: trade on this information. And before we bring in Nathan, 782 00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:48,160 Speaker 12: I want to tell you guys that we have heard 783 00:39:48,560 --> 00:39:51,200 Speaker 12: from the nominee in waiting. We just heard from Kamala 784 00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:54,640 Speaker 12: Harris in a written statement here that is full of 785 00:39:54,680 --> 00:39:58,200 Speaker 12: gratitude for several paragraphs, and goes on to write, I 786 00:39:58,239 --> 00:40:01,280 Speaker 12: am honored to have the President's endorsement, and my intention 787 00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:05,160 Speaker 12: is to earn and win this nomination, win the word 788 00:40:05,200 --> 00:40:07,960 Speaker 12: that she chooses. Over the past year, I have traveled 789 00:40:08,000 --> 00:40:10,960 Speaker 12: across the country talking with Americans about the clear choice 790 00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:13,200 Speaker 12: in this momentous election, and that is what I will 791 00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:15,319 Speaker 12: continue to do in the days and weeks ahead. She 792 00:40:15,440 --> 00:40:19,600 Speaker 12: talks about Tom and David uniting the party to defeat 793 00:40:19,600 --> 00:40:23,040 Speaker 12: Donald Trump and his extreme Project twenty twenty five agenda, 794 00:40:23,320 --> 00:40:26,360 Speaker 12: referring to one hundred seven days until election day. Together, 795 00:40:26,440 --> 00:40:29,280 Speaker 12: she writes, we will fight, we will win. This sounds 796 00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:32,600 Speaker 12: like something that is written by someone in the throes 797 00:40:32,680 --> 00:40:35,520 Speaker 12: of a primary contest or potentially throwing their hat into 798 00:40:35,560 --> 00:40:39,359 Speaker 12: the ring, not a sitting vice president on a remarkable day. Here, 799 00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:42,279 Speaker 12: Nathan Dean, thank you for joining us. I wonder who 800 00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:45,160 Speaker 12: you're hearing from today already and how this might move 801 00:40:45,239 --> 00:40:46,040 Speaker 12: markets tomorrow. 802 00:40:47,040 --> 00:40:49,080 Speaker 13: Well, you know that we actually put out a series 803 00:40:49,120 --> 00:40:51,279 Speaker 13: of notes on Friday just on the chance. Look, and 804 00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:53,680 Speaker 13: nobody knew this was going to happen, But a lot 805 00:40:53,680 --> 00:40:56,520 Speaker 13: of the notes that we put out really had two focuses. Now, 806 00:40:56,560 --> 00:40:59,440 Speaker 13: the first focus is the macro level. And really this election, 807 00:40:59,520 --> 00:41:02,320 Speaker 13: in our view, comes down to two things, tariffs and taxes. 808 00:41:02,600 --> 00:41:04,840 Speaker 13: And obviously, when tariffs with Kamala Harris, you get a 809 00:41:04,880 --> 00:41:07,520 Speaker 13: very similar policy than you do to President Biden, which 810 00:41:07,560 --> 00:41:10,319 Speaker 13: is drastically different than that of President Trump. You know, 811 00:41:10,400 --> 00:41:13,040 Speaker 13: President Trump has called for sixty percent tariffs on item 812 00:41:13,120 --> 00:41:16,759 Speaker 13: imports from China. We anticipated Kamala Harris presidency if she 813 00:41:16,800 --> 00:41:18,600 Speaker 13: were to be elected, to be very similar to more 814 00:41:18,640 --> 00:41:22,839 Speaker 13: targeted sector tariffs. Then you have the tax argument. Now, 815 00:41:22,840 --> 00:41:24,880 Speaker 13: the tax argument is going to be a third quarter 816 00:41:24,960 --> 00:41:27,799 Speaker 13: of twenty twenty five argument because the tax of the 817 00:41:27,920 --> 00:41:31,080 Speaker 13: individual tax cuts for the Trump the individual tax cuts 818 00:41:31,239 --> 00:41:33,279 Speaker 13: as part of the Trump tax cuts expired at the 819 00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:35,719 Speaker 13: end of twenty twenty five, and we see a lot 820 00:41:35,760 --> 00:41:39,600 Speaker 13: of information about terms of assistance for lower cut consumers, 821 00:41:39,640 --> 00:41:42,839 Speaker 13: lower income consumers, a lot of relief for the just 822 00:41:42,960 --> 00:41:45,680 Speaker 13: you know, general, lower to middle income class, and would 823 00:41:45,680 --> 00:41:49,080 Speaker 13: anticipate a you know, call for a higher tax rate 824 00:41:49,160 --> 00:41:52,440 Speaker 13: on individuals that are making more than four hundred thousand dollars. 825 00:41:52,440 --> 00:41:54,560 Speaker 13: It's very similar to what President Biden put out. But 826 00:41:54,600 --> 00:41:57,200 Speaker 13: then you also have the sector specific impacts and really 827 00:41:57,239 --> 00:41:59,960 Speaker 13: what our message to clients is, it's a lot of 828 00:42:00,120 --> 00:42:04,279 Speaker 13: the regulatory status quo, because you know, whether it's banks, evs, 829 00:42:04,320 --> 00:42:07,279 Speaker 13: TMT and so forth like bet. We anticipate that she'd 830 00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:11,840 Speaker 13: be very focused on consumer financial regulation. We anticipate that 831 00:42:11,880 --> 00:42:14,120 Speaker 13: she'd probably have a continuation in terms of m and 832 00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:18,120 Speaker 13: A strategy and anti big tech scrutiny like you see 833 00:42:18,160 --> 00:42:20,200 Speaker 13: over at the Federal Trade Commissioner to Lena Cohn. And 834 00:42:20,200 --> 00:42:22,560 Speaker 13: that's a very important point here is that if Kamala 835 00:42:22,560 --> 00:42:25,200 Speaker 13: Harris were to win the presidency, I think the regulatory 836 00:42:25,280 --> 00:42:28,920 Speaker 13: leadership of the Biden era regulators. You know, most of 837 00:42:28,920 --> 00:42:31,080 Speaker 13: them would probably stick around for the first year of 838 00:42:31,080 --> 00:42:33,360 Speaker 13: her presidency. So I think it's just a lot of 839 00:42:33,400 --> 00:42:36,440 Speaker 13: status quo and very different contrasts that you would see 840 00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:37,440 Speaker 13: in her a Trump presidency. 841 00:42:38,360 --> 00:42:40,120 Speaker 12: Interesting, So I guess we're not going to be talking 842 00:42:40,120 --> 00:42:42,560 Speaker 12: about the Kamala trade, Nathan. I've not only heard about 843 00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:44,719 Speaker 12: the Trump trade for the last two weeks, but even 844 00:42:44,760 --> 00:42:47,279 Speaker 12: the JD trade last week. And it's funny you're talking 845 00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:48,120 Speaker 12: about Lena Kahan. 846 00:42:48,480 --> 00:42:48,960 Speaker 4: Does J. D. 847 00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:51,439 Speaker 12: Vance have more in common with Kamala Harris or Donald 848 00:42:51,480 --> 00:42:54,759 Speaker 12: Trump when it comes to the economy and financial regulations? 849 00:42:55,480 --> 00:42:57,879 Speaker 13: So, you know, it's interesting. You know, I just first state, 850 00:42:57,960 --> 00:42:59,719 Speaker 13: you know, this is the vice president policy and it 851 00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:02,880 Speaker 13: really depends on you know, in JD. Vance's case, if 852 00:43:02,920 --> 00:43:05,600 Speaker 13: President Trump were to defer to Senator Vance in terms 853 00:43:05,600 --> 00:43:08,120 Speaker 13: of you go forth and run with these policies. But 854 00:43:08,200 --> 00:43:11,120 Speaker 13: if he were, Senator Vance is very much aligned with 855 00:43:11,200 --> 00:43:13,279 Speaker 13: Lena Khan. In fact, there was an event at the 856 00:43:13,280 --> 00:43:16,720 Speaker 13: Bloomberg DC office not long ago where he said President 857 00:43:16,840 --> 00:43:20,000 Speaker 13: Lina Khan was President Biden's best pick, and he even 858 00:43:20,160 --> 00:43:22,040 Speaker 13: situated last week. I don't think he would do it. 859 00:43:22,080 --> 00:43:24,120 Speaker 13: That he would, you know, pushed for Lena Khan to 860 00:43:24,160 --> 00:43:26,920 Speaker 13: keep her position. But that's the new reality with the 861 00:43:26,920 --> 00:43:30,400 Speaker 13: Republican Party of this idea of economic populism. It's not 862 00:43:30,520 --> 00:43:32,680 Speaker 13: the very old Republican Party where you can just say 863 00:43:32,719 --> 00:43:35,960 Speaker 13: at a high level, Republicans equal good for a big business. 864 00:43:36,080 --> 00:43:38,440 Speaker 13: It's just not the case anymore. So, you know, what 865 00:43:38,480 --> 00:43:41,239 Speaker 13: we often also have to say to our clients though, 866 00:43:41,320 --> 00:43:43,600 Speaker 13: is just remember a lot of this is headline risk 867 00:43:43,760 --> 00:43:45,560 Speaker 13: right now. I'm not saying it's not going to turn 868 00:43:45,600 --> 00:43:48,040 Speaker 13: into things come to the election time, but you will 869 00:43:48,040 --> 00:43:51,359 Speaker 13: see statements from President Trump, President Biden, Senator Vance, Vice 870 00:43:51,360 --> 00:43:54,560 Speaker 13: President Kamala Harris, and when they become president or vice 871 00:43:54,560 --> 00:43:57,359 Speaker 13: president or are elected, then the question is, how are 872 00:43:57,360 --> 00:43:59,320 Speaker 13: you going to get your plan through Congress? It's almost 873 00:43:59,320 --> 00:44:01,200 Speaker 13: like the Hamilton musical again, how are you going to 874 00:44:01,239 --> 00:44:04,120 Speaker 13: get your plan through? And things begin to actually dial down, 875 00:44:04,160 --> 00:44:06,000 Speaker 13: you know, if they start and say I want to 876 00:44:06,040 --> 00:44:08,640 Speaker 13: do a number ten on this issue, by the time 877 00:44:08,680 --> 00:44:10,680 Speaker 13: they get to Congress in maybe a six or a five. 878 00:44:10,800 --> 00:44:13,160 Speaker 13: So you know, just always keep in mind in terms 879 00:44:13,239 --> 00:44:15,920 Speaker 13: of you know, timing and so forth for the clients 880 00:44:15,920 --> 00:44:19,480 Speaker 13: that we're talking to. It's really the tariff argument first, 881 00:44:19,960 --> 00:44:23,840 Speaker 13: taxes second, and then the sector arguments for each individual 882 00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:25,480 Speaker 13: policies and legislation's third. 883 00:44:25,920 --> 00:44:28,520 Speaker 3: Nathan, bearing in mind this is uncharted territory, I wonder 884 00:44:28,520 --> 00:44:31,200 Speaker 3: what these next few months like through leading to the election. 885 00:44:31,800 --> 00:44:33,320 Speaker 3: I think it's safe to say there hasn't been a 886 00:44:33,360 --> 00:44:36,440 Speaker 3: whole lot of business getting done in Washington already. But 887 00:44:36,760 --> 00:44:38,960 Speaker 3: how does this slow this down? You look as well 888 00:44:39,000 --> 00:44:41,719 Speaker 3: at the comments that we're getting from Republicans about whether 889 00:44:41,800 --> 00:44:45,080 Speaker 3: Joe Biden should step aside. Let's set that aside ourselves 890 00:44:45,080 --> 00:44:47,800 Speaker 3: and just note here we have a lame duck president. 891 00:44:48,320 --> 00:44:50,080 Speaker 3: History can tell us a lot about somebody in that 892 00:44:50,160 --> 00:44:53,719 Speaker 3: position from a policymaking perspective, from a political perspective, what 893 00:44:53,960 --> 00:44:56,160 Speaker 3: are these next few months look like given what's changed 894 00:44:56,160 --> 00:44:57,160 Speaker 3: today in Washington. 895 00:44:57,840 --> 00:45:00,440 Speaker 13: Well, look, Joe Biden is a lame duck starting to morning, 896 00:45:00,440 --> 00:45:02,359 Speaker 13: if not this evening. So that's really there's two other 897 00:45:02,400 --> 00:45:05,080 Speaker 13: avenues that we need to talk about. Versus the regulatory stuff. 898 00:45:05,360 --> 00:45:08,280 Speaker 13: You will probably see President Biden PUSH's regulators to finalize 899 00:45:08,280 --> 00:45:10,520 Speaker 13: their agenda as soon as possible. Now, this is going 900 00:45:10,600 --> 00:45:12,839 Speaker 13: to probably come after the Congressional Review Act date. I'll 901 00:45:12,840 --> 00:45:14,960 Speaker 13: spare the audience, but all just you need to know 902 00:45:15,160 --> 00:45:18,359 Speaker 13: is is that any regulation that's essentially finalized from now 903 00:45:18,400 --> 00:45:20,600 Speaker 13: until the end of the year could be overturned if 904 00:45:20,600 --> 00:45:22,960 Speaker 13: the Republicans win a House, the Senate, and the presidency. 905 00:45:23,160 --> 00:45:25,879 Speaker 13: But I would also intenicipate President Biden to look internationally. 906 00:45:26,120 --> 00:45:28,280 Speaker 13: So this is something that we've seen lame duck presidents. 907 00:45:28,320 --> 00:45:30,040 Speaker 13: Do you know President Obama did this in the last 908 00:45:30,040 --> 00:45:32,440 Speaker 13: two years of his term. President George W. Bush did 909 00:45:32,440 --> 00:45:34,040 Speaker 13: this in the last two years of the term. Because 910 00:45:34,040 --> 00:45:36,480 Speaker 13: when Capitol Hill looks at the White House and says, look, 911 00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:38,239 Speaker 13: I'm not going to stick my neck out for you 912 00:45:38,280 --> 00:45:39,960 Speaker 13: because you're not going to be here in six months, 913 00:45:40,200 --> 00:45:42,719 Speaker 13: you lose a lot of political capital. So the presidencies 914 00:45:42,840 --> 00:45:46,520 Speaker 13: often look internationally. So if President Biden has the situation, 915 00:45:46,640 --> 00:45:48,200 Speaker 13: I look, I know we're only three and a half year, 916 00:45:48,360 --> 00:45:50,680 Speaker 13: three and a half months till the election, approximately six 917 00:45:50,719 --> 00:45:52,800 Speaker 13: and a half months until we have a new president. 918 00:45:53,080 --> 00:45:55,400 Speaker 13: But I wouldn't be surprised if President Biden were to, 919 00:45:55,600 --> 00:45:57,759 Speaker 13: you know, take the Air Force one, if you will 920 00:45:58,040 --> 00:45:59,960 Speaker 13: fly abroad and spend a little bit more time over there, 921 00:46:00,680 --> 00:46:02,520 Speaker 13: just because the power of the presidency is a little 922 00:46:02,560 --> 00:46:04,600 Speaker 13: bit more powerful when it comes to international relations. 923 00:46:05,280 --> 00:46:08,800 Speaker 3: Nathan, do you have a good handle on what Kamala 924 00:46:08,840 --> 00:46:11,520 Speaker 3: Harris's policy preferences are? We were talking about trade, talking 925 00:46:11,520 --> 00:46:14,040 Speaker 3: about immigration. Obviously this was a big part of her remit. 926 00:46:14,080 --> 00:46:17,880 Speaker 3: But we're learning day by day more about the junior 927 00:46:17,920 --> 00:46:20,400 Speaker 3: senator from Ohio. The degree to which he's kind of 928 00:46:20,440 --> 00:46:22,480 Speaker 3: an enigma in the Republican Party. That was certainly in 929 00:46:22,520 --> 00:46:26,000 Speaker 3: stark relief during the course of that convention. The way 930 00:46:26,040 --> 00:46:29,440 Speaker 3: that things that he supports and espouses are very separate 931 00:46:29,480 --> 00:46:31,520 Speaker 3: and different from what we saw in Republicans a long 932 00:46:31,560 --> 00:46:36,960 Speaker 3: time ago. How much of Kamala Harris's policy biography is discreet, 933 00:46:37,120 --> 00:46:39,200 Speaker 3: is different from the man with whom she's serving. How 934 00:46:39,280 --> 00:46:40,560 Speaker 3: much do we know about that at this point? 935 00:46:41,120 --> 00:46:43,080 Speaker 13: So it's actually fairly light. I mean, all we're going 936 00:46:43,080 --> 00:46:45,440 Speaker 13: off of. We actually had an hour long call on 937 00:46:45,440 --> 00:46:47,560 Speaker 13: about this on Friday amongst the team going through all this, 938 00:46:47,640 --> 00:46:49,759 Speaker 13: and it's fairly light. You know, we have to go 939 00:46:49,760 --> 00:46:52,120 Speaker 13: back to our time. As Attorney General of California, she 940 00:46:52,239 --> 00:46:55,480 Speaker 13: participated in a twenty five billion dollar settlement against the 941 00:46:55,480 --> 00:46:57,879 Speaker 13: big banks like Bank of America, JP Morgan and Wells 942 00:46:57,960 --> 00:47:01,600 Speaker 13: Fargo on foreclosure practices. Now that was something that forty 943 00:47:01,680 --> 00:47:04,319 Speaker 13: seven other states and the District of Columbia went through. 944 00:47:04,360 --> 00:47:06,920 Speaker 13: But as her time of the Attorney General, she really 945 00:47:06,960 --> 00:47:11,200 Speaker 13: made a significant push on this idea of consumer protection, 946 00:47:11,320 --> 00:47:14,000 Speaker 13: especially when it comes to big business and this idea 947 00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:16,440 Speaker 13: of consumer protection. So we certainly think that if she 948 00:47:16,520 --> 00:47:18,799 Speaker 13: were to move forward and become the president, you could 949 00:47:18,800 --> 00:47:21,719 Speaker 13: see a push on things like offering student debt relief. Look, 950 00:47:22,200 --> 00:47:24,040 Speaker 13: you know, I'm not saying it's the other courts are 951 00:47:24,040 --> 00:47:26,040 Speaker 13: going to allow it, but certainly the president can do 952 00:47:26,160 --> 00:47:29,720 Speaker 13: that and say let's continuing with this type of relief. 953 00:47:30,000 --> 00:47:32,440 Speaker 13: But then as senator, you know from California, then you 954 00:47:32,520 --> 00:47:34,160 Speaker 13: become one of one hundred and it's a little bit 955 00:47:34,200 --> 00:47:37,160 Speaker 13: more difficult. But what I would say is is that overall, 956 00:47:37,520 --> 00:47:40,439 Speaker 13: you know, when President Biden came into office, we viewed 957 00:47:40,520 --> 00:47:43,160 Speaker 13: him as a centrist president, and we think that he 958 00:47:43,200 --> 00:47:47,040 Speaker 13: moved closer to Kamala Harris's policies than Kamala Harris did 959 00:47:47,080 --> 00:47:49,880 Speaker 13: moving to his policies. So I think the President Biden 960 00:47:49,920 --> 00:47:51,680 Speaker 13: policies that you have of today are going to be 961 00:47:51,760 --> 00:47:54,520 Speaker 13: very indicative of Kamala Harris if she were to win. 962 00:47:54,680 --> 00:47:58,080 Speaker 4: Nathan, thank you so much. Nathan Dean in Washington this 963 00:47:58,160 --> 00:48:02,680 Speaker 4: morning again reaction the world to a president who steps aside. 964 00:48:03,640 --> 00:48:05,400 Speaker 4: One headline that I saw, I believe that was the 965 00:48:05,520 --> 00:48:09,440 Speaker 4: Washington Post, our special covers Joe Matthew and Washington David 966 00:48:09,440 --> 00:48:12,719 Speaker 4: Gerr in New York, Tom Keene's special edition of Bloomberg 967 00:48:12,800 --> 00:48:18,000 Speaker 4: Surveillance Joe Matthew stealed for a five PM Balance of Power, 968 00:48:18,040 --> 00:48:21,680 Speaker 4: which we hope to see as well. Joe, you were 969 00:48:21,680 --> 00:48:26,040 Speaker 4: weaned on Massachusetts politics and one of the great things 970 00:48:26,080 --> 00:48:30,759 Speaker 4: of Massachusetts politics is there were Republicans and Democrats in 971 00:48:30,800 --> 00:48:34,719 Speaker 4: the middle. From where you sit, Joe Matthew, is anybody 972 00:48:34,719 --> 00:48:38,400 Speaker 4: out there on this Sunday afternoon, this Sunday edge of evening, 973 00:48:38,800 --> 00:48:40,479 Speaker 4: is anybody in the middle? Boy? 974 00:48:40,640 --> 00:48:43,240 Speaker 12: Well, if you mean in the middle between Kamala Harris 975 00:48:43,280 --> 00:48:45,280 Speaker 12: and somebody else, I think that might be a question 976 00:48:45,320 --> 00:48:48,080 Speaker 12: in the middle politically, I don't know. Do you think 977 00:48:48,120 --> 00:48:50,480 Speaker 12: Seth Moulton, who was one of the first I think 978 00:48:50,560 --> 00:48:55,760 Speaker 12: number three Democrat in Congress north Shore of Massachusetts Salem 979 00:48:55,760 --> 00:48:57,960 Speaker 12: who actually called on Joe Biden to step down and 980 00:48:57,960 --> 00:49:00,960 Speaker 12: called for a new generation. Yeah, remembering he was blackballed 981 00:49:00,960 --> 00:49:02,840 Speaker 12: by many in the Democratic Party when he tried to 982 00:49:02,880 --> 00:49:06,600 Speaker 12: run against Nancy Pelosi. But Middle I don't think is 983 00:49:06,640 --> 00:49:08,640 Speaker 12: going to get you through a primary cycle here, which 984 00:49:08,680 --> 00:49:10,600 Speaker 12: this feels like a lot, although I will point out 985 00:49:10,680 --> 00:49:14,720 Speaker 12: this is pretty important. Gretchen Whitmer and now the governor 986 00:49:14,760 --> 00:49:18,520 Speaker 12: of California, Gavin Newsom, say they will not challenge Kamala Harris. 987 00:49:18,560 --> 00:49:20,239 Speaker 4: This is going to come. So it's moving in real time. 988 00:49:20,440 --> 00:49:22,879 Speaker 4: I root for all of you nationwide. David is doing 989 00:49:22,920 --> 00:49:25,719 Speaker 4: a much better job. Joe lives stuff. I mean, we're 990 00:49:25,719 --> 00:49:28,680 Speaker 4: not like Joe, but David, it's moving in real time 991 00:49:29,160 --> 00:49:29,720 Speaker 4: by this effect. 992 00:49:29,760 --> 00:49:31,600 Speaker 3: And I'd love to get Joe's perspective on this. I mean, 993 00:49:31,600 --> 00:49:33,560 Speaker 3: Tom asked me, Joe sort of what stood out to 994 00:49:33,600 --> 00:49:35,480 Speaker 3: me about the way that this has been playing out, 995 00:49:35,480 --> 00:49:37,640 Speaker 3: and I said, yes, it was that this was done 996 00:49:37,640 --> 00:49:39,360 Speaker 3: in a letter and then we had the endorsement in 997 00:49:39,400 --> 00:49:41,440 Speaker 3: short order and a tweet following that. But it has 998 00:49:41,480 --> 00:49:45,600 Speaker 3: been the kind of mounting quantity of knock on endorsements 999 00:49:45,600 --> 00:49:47,400 Speaker 3: that we've seen from members of Congress, and I'd love 1000 00:49:47,440 --> 00:49:49,160 Speaker 3: to just hear perspective on that. Joe how quickly this 1001 00:49:49,160 --> 00:49:50,680 Speaker 3: has happened, and what it says to you about the 1002 00:49:50,680 --> 00:49:54,080 Speaker 3: Democratic parties willing is here as I see it to Galvin, 1003 00:49:54,160 --> 00:49:56,160 Speaker 3: I as an orient itself around Kamala Harris. 1004 00:49:56,880 --> 00:49:58,640 Speaker 12: Well, it's not like they didn't have time to prepare 1005 00:49:58,680 --> 00:50:01,000 Speaker 12: for this. Apps and knowing that the phone calls were happening, 1006 00:50:01,360 --> 00:50:06,440 Speaker 12: the most important ones I've seen here CBC, CCHC. The 1007 00:50:06,560 --> 00:50:10,200 Speaker 12: last holdout was Jim Clyburn. You've got the Congressional Black 1008 00:50:10,200 --> 00:50:14,200 Speaker 12: Caucus now endorsing Harris with gratitude to Joe Biden. A 1009 00:50:14,239 --> 00:50:17,120 Speaker 12: great debt of gratitude, says the statement of the Congressional 1010 00:50:17,200 --> 00:50:21,239 Speaker 12: Hispanic Caucus chair now doing exactly the same here on X. 1011 00:50:21,280 --> 00:50:24,120 Speaker 12: So this this feels kind of like a coronation. But guys, 1012 00:50:24,160 --> 00:50:26,680 Speaker 12: you know, I have to admit I've been pushing back 1013 00:50:26,719 --> 00:50:28,640 Speaker 12: on a lot of this conversation over the last week 1014 00:50:28,800 --> 00:50:30,719 Speaker 12: because this is I thought, why we had a vice 1015 00:50:30,760 --> 00:50:33,400 Speaker 12: president whoever heard of blowing up the whole thing a 1016 00:50:33,400 --> 00:50:36,160 Speaker 12: couple of weeks before a convention when you actually have 1017 00:50:36,280 --> 00:50:38,359 Speaker 12: someone in waiting who shares the delegates and the money. 1018 00:50:38,360 --> 00:50:40,440 Speaker 12: To your point earlier, Tom, it does seem like that 1019 00:50:40,600 --> 00:50:42,759 Speaker 12: would have created an enormous a voice and would have 1020 00:50:42,840 --> 00:50:44,400 Speaker 12: insulted a lot of people. 1021 00:50:44,480 --> 00:50:48,160 Speaker 3: Absolutely, you're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. 1022 00:50:48,280 --> 00:50:51,600 Speaker 3: I'm David Durou with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Plenty ahead. 1023 00:50:51,960 --> 00:50:53,080 Speaker 3: This has been. 1024 00:51:03,000 --> 00:51:06,680 Speaker 2: Welcome back to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance from 1025 00:51:06,719 --> 00:51:07,680 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Radio. 1026 00:51:08,239 --> 00:51:11,160 Speaker 3: You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm 1027 00:51:11,239 --> 00:51:14,279 Speaker 3: David Dura with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Breaking news 1028 00:51:14,280 --> 00:51:18,200 Speaker 3: this afternoon, President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid, Biden 1029 00:51:18,320 --> 00:51:21,040 Speaker 3: saying he would serve out his term, but endorsed Vice 1030 00:51:21,080 --> 00:51:24,920 Speaker 3: President Kamala Harris to take his place as the Democratic nominee. 1031 00:51:25,600 --> 00:51:29,160 Speaker 4: Joining us now is can I just say my favorite 1032 00:51:29,239 --> 00:51:33,400 Speaker 4: Henrietta Trees is just absolutely fabulous at Veda partners with 1033 00:51:33,560 --> 00:51:37,440 Speaker 4: encyclopedic knowledge of Capitol Hill. Because this is not just 1034 00:51:37,520 --> 00:51:41,480 Speaker 4: about the presidential election, It's about a landslide. Is the 1035 00:51:41,520 --> 00:51:45,920 Speaker 4: Republican speak of a Republican House, a Republican Senate with 1036 00:51:46,000 --> 00:51:49,920 Speaker 4: mister Trump on term two, I would note Henrietta Trees 1037 00:51:50,000 --> 00:51:53,160 Speaker 4: and thank you for joining Joe Matthew, David Gura and myself, 1038 00:51:53,640 --> 00:51:57,160 Speaker 4: Jessica Taylor over at to cook political report, writing up 1039 00:51:57,200 --> 00:52:01,600 Speaker 4: a single headline only days ago, Michigan Senate moves to 1040 00:52:01,600 --> 00:52:06,880 Speaker 4: toss up as Democrats tied to defy political gravity. You 1041 00:52:06,920 --> 00:52:10,880 Speaker 4: are expert on houses in Senate. Does does this news 1042 00:52:10,920 --> 00:52:15,520 Speaker 4: today make it less likely of a landslide? I would 1043 00:52:15,520 --> 00:52:17,040 Speaker 4: say a Republican landslide. 1044 00:52:18,200 --> 00:52:22,120 Speaker 14: Yes, thank you for having me the feelings mutual. Yes, absolutely, 1045 00:52:22,120 --> 00:52:25,680 Speaker 14: this makes it less of a landslide. American voters and 1046 00:52:25,719 --> 00:52:29,040 Speaker 14: in particular Democrats, have been primed for this chaos for 1047 00:52:29,160 --> 00:52:32,120 Speaker 14: months now. They knew it well before the sort of 1048 00:52:32,120 --> 00:52:34,880 Speaker 14: elites of the party got on board and started calling 1049 00:52:34,880 --> 00:52:37,279 Speaker 14: for President Biden to step aside and not run for 1050 00:52:37,320 --> 00:52:42,120 Speaker 14: a second term. The American public has disproportionately large support 1051 00:52:42,280 --> 00:52:47,319 Speaker 14: for the Senate candidates, including in Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, 1052 00:52:47,520 --> 00:52:51,080 Speaker 14: you know, even Montana, than anything that President Biden was 1053 00:52:51,080 --> 00:52:53,160 Speaker 14: doing at the top of the ticket. So his decision, 1054 00:52:53,239 --> 00:52:57,640 Speaker 14: his sort of magnanimous and enormous decision to step aside 1055 00:52:57,760 --> 00:53:00,680 Speaker 14: and put Kamala at the front up a race for 1056 00:53:00,760 --> 00:53:04,320 Speaker 14: the vice presidential ticket, opens up a debate about which 1057 00:53:04,400 --> 00:53:06,320 Speaker 14: direction the party is going to go on the electoral 1058 00:53:06,320 --> 00:53:08,840 Speaker 14: college front. And what's interesting to me is that you know, 1059 00:53:08,880 --> 00:53:11,760 Speaker 14: Trump is ahead by four and a half points in Pennsylvania. 1060 00:53:11,880 --> 00:53:15,040 Speaker 14: Biden and Kamala Harris have been doing very well in 1061 00:53:15,080 --> 00:53:18,800 Speaker 14: Michigan and Wisconsin comparatively, but the next closest states in 1062 00:53:18,920 --> 00:53:22,080 Speaker 14: line are Georgia and then just not too far after that, 1063 00:53:22,200 --> 00:53:25,320 Speaker 14: North Carolina. I wouldn't be surprised if the whole Democratic 1064 00:53:25,440 --> 00:53:29,279 Speaker 14: Party strategy shifts to more of a southern direction. I'm 1065 00:53:29,320 --> 00:53:32,000 Speaker 14: especially just about to publish the electoral college map if 1066 00:53:32,040 --> 00:53:35,480 Speaker 14: they lose Nevada and Arizona, which they could pick it 1067 00:53:35,560 --> 00:53:37,080 Speaker 14: up still if they win North Carolina. 1068 00:53:37,120 --> 00:53:39,239 Speaker 4: And we're sick about this, David Gurrs, I first heard 1069 00:53:39,280 --> 00:53:41,919 Speaker 4: that from Joe Matthew. Yes, it's just incredible how that works. 1070 00:53:41,960 --> 00:53:44,439 Speaker 3: We've been parroting the Roy Cooper line numerous times, Joe 1071 00:53:44,480 --> 00:53:47,960 Speaker 3: over the course over the course of these two hours, Henryette, 1072 00:53:47,960 --> 00:53:50,120 Speaker 3: I want to ask you about what happened in March 1073 00:53:50,120 --> 00:53:52,160 Speaker 3: of twenty twenty one. That is, when Joe Biden said 1074 00:53:52,160 --> 00:53:54,680 Speaker 3: to Kamala Harris, I'm naming you the borders are You're 1075 00:53:54,719 --> 00:53:58,160 Speaker 3: going to have responsibility for the US Mexico border and 1076 00:53:58,239 --> 00:54:00,680 Speaker 3: policy they're going forward this This is going to be 1077 00:54:00,760 --> 00:54:03,120 Speaker 3: something that the specter of this decision is going to 1078 00:54:03,160 --> 00:54:04,759 Speaker 3: come out pretty quickly, and they're going to use it 1079 00:54:04,760 --> 00:54:07,120 Speaker 3: against her. How does she push back on that? You 1080 00:54:07,160 --> 00:54:09,840 Speaker 3: look at what's happened here in recent months, the number 1081 00:54:09,880 --> 00:54:12,480 Speaker 3: of border guard interactions with folks crossing the border has 1082 00:54:12,520 --> 00:54:15,360 Speaker 3: gone down. There has been progress here. How much is 1083 00:54:15,400 --> 00:54:18,040 Speaker 3: that going to stick with the electorate. How effectively do 1084 00:54:18,080 --> 00:54:19,759 Speaker 3: you think the Trump campaign would be able to use 1085 00:54:19,800 --> 00:54:22,400 Speaker 3: that against Kamala Harris if indeed she is the nominee 1086 00:54:22,440 --> 00:54:23,080 Speaker 3: here going forward. 1087 00:54:24,360 --> 00:54:28,120 Speaker 14: It's fascinating voter opinion where they have immigration is the 1088 00:54:28,160 --> 00:54:31,720 Speaker 14: number one issue. These are disproportionately white, male, middle aged 1089 00:54:31,840 --> 00:54:33,759 Speaker 14: voters who are going to be in the Trump camp. 1090 00:54:33,800 --> 00:54:36,960 Speaker 14: I think no matter what Democrats convey or Kamala Harris 1091 00:54:37,000 --> 00:54:39,600 Speaker 14: conveys about the facts on the ground, I've been marketing, 1092 00:54:39,600 --> 00:54:41,960 Speaker 14: you know, obviously, all the time since February. 1093 00:54:42,360 --> 00:54:45,240 Speaker 6: And one of the most striking things the constant. 1094 00:54:44,960 --> 00:54:48,520 Speaker 14: Request I get for information after our meetings is whenever 1095 00:54:48,560 --> 00:54:51,560 Speaker 14: I say, you know, border crossings are down fifty four percent, 1096 00:54:51,600 --> 00:54:54,319 Speaker 14: they're down forty percent. They're now at the lowest point 1097 00:54:54,360 --> 00:54:57,440 Speaker 14: they have been even since before Biden took office, and 1098 00:54:57,520 --> 00:55:00,200 Speaker 14: everybody has to fact check that because it sounds so 1099 00:55:00,760 --> 00:55:03,799 Speaker 14: disjointed from what we hear either at the RNC or 1100 00:55:03,880 --> 00:55:05,360 Speaker 14: you for the last four years. 1101 00:55:05,600 --> 00:55:07,880 Speaker 6: So I think that there's a big education. 1102 00:55:07,600 --> 00:55:11,120 Speaker 14: Process that the Kamala Harris and whoever her VP is 1103 00:55:11,160 --> 00:55:14,279 Speaker 14: going to be next and President Biden to explain that 1104 00:55:14,320 --> 00:55:17,880 Speaker 14: in the last six months they have gotten immigration crossings 1105 00:55:17,920 --> 00:55:20,600 Speaker 14: at the border below the level of even when they 1106 00:55:20,640 --> 00:55:23,120 Speaker 14: took office. So that message is going to have to 1107 00:55:23,120 --> 00:55:25,920 Speaker 14: get across, for sure, mostly to Democratic voters, and I 1108 00:55:25,920 --> 00:55:29,440 Speaker 14: would also say suburban white voters like those in Indiana 1109 00:55:29,480 --> 00:55:31,759 Speaker 14: who have voted twenty two percent for Nikki Hayley just 1110 00:55:31,800 --> 00:55:35,560 Speaker 14: a few weeks back. Land. 1111 00:55:35,680 --> 00:55:37,839 Speaker 12: You back to this tweet from jd Vance that has 1112 00:55:37,840 --> 00:55:40,200 Speaker 12: a lot of us talking in the wake of Milwaukee, 1113 00:55:40,200 --> 00:55:42,799 Speaker 12: where we heard from a number of Republican lawmakers who 1114 00:55:42,880 --> 00:55:45,560 Speaker 12: said there's no way that if Joe Biden drops out 1115 00:55:45,600 --> 00:55:47,839 Speaker 12: of this race, he can continue serving out the rest 1116 00:55:47,840 --> 00:55:51,000 Speaker 12: of this term. Jd Vance saying there is no middle 1117 00:55:51,040 --> 00:55:53,960 Speaker 12: ground running for reelection would be a clear admission that 1118 00:55:54,040 --> 00:55:56,720 Speaker 12: Trump was right all along about Biden not being mentally 1119 00:55:56,719 --> 00:55:59,600 Speaker 12: fit enough to serve as commander in chief. Donald Trump 1120 00:55:59,640 --> 00:56:02,839 Speaker 12: puts on truth social following the news today Crooked Joe 1121 00:56:02,880 --> 00:56:05,040 Speaker 12: just got knocked out. So now I'll have to do 1122 00:56:05,120 --> 00:56:08,120 Speaker 12: it a fourth time. I guess my question is, how 1123 00:56:08,239 --> 00:56:10,560 Speaker 12: likely is it if Donald Trump wins another term, will 1124 00:56:10,600 --> 00:56:12,800 Speaker 12: he be the forty seventh or forty eighth president. 1125 00:56:15,680 --> 00:56:18,400 Speaker 14: I would say if he were to win another term, 1126 00:56:18,680 --> 00:56:20,000 Speaker 14: it would be this next time around. 1127 00:56:20,040 --> 00:56:20,920 Speaker 6: If that's what you're getting at. 1128 00:56:20,960 --> 00:56:23,040 Speaker 14: I mean, I do think it's a false construct to 1129 00:56:23,120 --> 00:56:25,640 Speaker 14: come in the way that Jadie Vance does in his 1130 00:56:25,640 --> 00:56:27,520 Speaker 14: tweet and say, you know, Biden need But could we. 1131 00:56:27,520 --> 00:56:30,280 Speaker 12: Be in a world in which Kamala Harris finds herself 1132 00:56:30,320 --> 00:56:33,920 Speaker 12: president of the United States before November and then Donald 1133 00:56:33,920 --> 00:56:35,680 Speaker 12: Trump serves another term? 1134 00:56:35,840 --> 00:56:38,719 Speaker 14: No, No, I mean, first of all, the challenger doesn't 1135 00:56:38,719 --> 00:56:40,719 Speaker 14: get to dictate the terms of the boots on the 1136 00:56:40,719 --> 00:56:44,000 Speaker 14: ground reality. Brden is president. There is not another election 1137 00:56:44,080 --> 00:56:46,480 Speaker 14: between now and then. Kamala is not gonna, you know, 1138 00:56:46,520 --> 00:56:48,319 Speaker 14: step in and you surp his role. This is why 1139 00:56:48,320 --> 00:56:50,719 Speaker 14: there's succession, as you just discussed, you know, this is 1140 00:56:50,719 --> 00:56:53,200 Speaker 14: what it says in the constitution. So he finishes his term, 1141 00:56:53,280 --> 00:56:56,160 Speaker 14: he's not running for another term, and he's decided that 1142 00:56:56,239 --> 00:56:57,880 Speaker 14: he's going to endorse Kamala and we'll go through the 1143 00:56:57,880 --> 00:57:00,640 Speaker 14: process of the DNC. But no, I don't expect Biden 1144 00:57:00,680 --> 00:57:02,040 Speaker 14: to step down. And I think it's a sort of 1145 00:57:02,040 --> 00:57:04,719 Speaker 14: a false construct to think that the challenger has any 1146 00:57:04,760 --> 00:57:06,359 Speaker 14: say in who the current president is. 1147 00:57:07,680 --> 00:57:10,279 Speaker 12: Not to suggest as much, but Joe Biden might find 1148 00:57:10,280 --> 00:57:12,280 Speaker 12: that he cannot finish out the rest of this term. 1149 00:57:12,440 --> 00:57:15,040 Speaker 12: Kamala Harris would then have to step in. Donald Trump 1150 00:57:15,080 --> 00:57:17,480 Speaker 12: could still win the election. I guess I'm just wondering 1151 00:57:17,480 --> 00:57:19,400 Speaker 12: if we should all be calling, you know, talking about 1152 00:57:19,560 --> 00:57:22,120 Speaker 12: the possibility of Trump forty seven when it could be 1153 00:57:22,200 --> 00:57:24,720 Speaker 12: forty eight. What makes you so sure Joe Biden can 1154 00:57:24,760 --> 00:57:25,640 Speaker 12: finish out the rest. 1155 00:57:25,520 --> 00:57:26,040 Speaker 4: Of his term. 1156 00:57:26,960 --> 00:57:30,480 Speaker 14: Well, I'm not his healthcare provider or anything along those lines, 1157 00:57:30,840 --> 00:57:37,320 Speaker 14: but I don't think that a groundswell push that has 1158 00:57:37,360 --> 00:57:40,680 Speaker 14: successfully gotten him to not run for a second term 1159 00:57:40,720 --> 00:57:43,640 Speaker 14: would be effective in trying to get him to resign quickly. 1160 00:57:43,840 --> 00:57:47,080 Speaker 14: That's not what the Democratic Party is asking for, That's 1161 00:57:47,120 --> 00:57:48,560 Speaker 14: not what the delegates are asking for. 1162 00:57:49,200 --> 00:57:50,440 Speaker 6: So I'm not expecting. 1163 00:57:50,760 --> 00:57:52,800 Speaker 4: David Gerry, have you seen any more news here, any 1164 00:57:52,840 --> 00:57:55,200 Speaker 4: more comments from people I see? I'm watching Fox here 1165 00:57:55,240 --> 00:57:57,800 Speaker 4: with our great TV setup here, it's going to be 1166 00:57:57,960 --> 00:58:01,720 Speaker 4: fascinating to see the response of the Republicans all this. 1167 00:58:01,800 --> 00:58:03,960 Speaker 4: Have you seen any new colors too? 1168 00:58:04,040 --> 00:58:06,520 Speaker 3: And see my eye drifting over to Fox News where 1169 00:58:06,520 --> 00:58:08,880 Speaker 3: the Chiron was saying Democrats divided. And I will say 1170 00:58:08,880 --> 00:58:11,520 Speaker 3: from all that I've read the great summary that we've 1171 00:58:11,520 --> 00:58:14,200 Speaker 3: gotten on our top live blog on the Bloomberg, it 1172 00:58:14,240 --> 00:58:16,800 Speaker 3: doesn't seem like there is a ton of division within 1173 00:58:16,800 --> 00:58:18,560 Speaker 3: the Democrats who have waited on this. Yes, there were 1174 00:58:18,600 --> 00:58:22,160 Speaker 3: some like Governor Evers who were withholding an explicit nomination, 1175 00:58:22,280 --> 00:58:24,800 Speaker 3: but a lot of people getting in line and endorsing 1176 00:58:24,840 --> 00:58:26,800 Speaker 3: Kamala Harris as the nominee. 1177 00:58:26,840 --> 00:58:27,120 Speaker 4: I see. 1178 00:58:27,120 --> 00:58:29,480 Speaker 3: You know we spoke earlier about President Clinton and Secretary 1179 00:58:29,560 --> 00:58:34,160 Speaker 3: Clinton endorsing Kamala Harris in a joint statement. Another married couple, 1180 00:58:34,200 --> 00:58:37,160 Speaker 3: Senator Kelly and Gabby Gifford's doing the same thing as well. 1181 00:58:37,200 --> 00:58:38,960 Speaker 3: Senator Kelly is somebody we were talking about a little 1182 00:58:39,000 --> 00:58:40,800 Speaker 3: earlier on the show as somebody who could be seen 1183 00:58:40,800 --> 00:58:45,720 Speaker 3: as a potential nominee, somebody who former astronaut, maybe combat pilot. 1184 00:58:46,360 --> 00:58:48,360 Speaker 3: Could he be somebody who woud seek the presidency? 1185 00:58:48,680 --> 00:58:50,760 Speaker 4: Yeah? But can he take Pennsylvania. 1186 00:58:50,880 --> 00:58:55,120 Speaker 3: Well, he indicating he's no longer no longer interested in 1187 00:58:55,160 --> 00:58:55,480 Speaker 3: doing that. 1188 00:58:56,040 --> 00:58:56,280 Speaker 4: Yeah. 1189 00:58:56,360 --> 00:58:59,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, But to that point, Henrietta, let me ask you 1190 00:58:59,400 --> 00:59:01,160 Speaker 3: sort of who you're looking at as we kind of 1191 00:59:01,160 --> 00:59:03,840 Speaker 3: look at all of these names and statements coming out here, 1192 00:59:04,160 --> 00:59:05,880 Speaker 3: who do you want to hear from? And Joe mentioning 1193 00:59:05,960 --> 00:59:08,280 Speaker 3: just moments ago the importance of hearing from Jim Clyburn, 1194 00:59:08,320 --> 00:59:11,840 Speaker 3: who essentially annointed Joe Biden to winning the nomination the 1195 00:59:11,920 --> 00:59:14,120 Speaker 3: last time around. Are there any that you haven't heard 1196 00:59:14,160 --> 00:59:16,000 Speaker 3: from yet? Who do you think is that has the 1197 00:59:16,000 --> 00:59:19,160 Speaker 3: most signal importance here as we put together those endorsements 1198 00:59:19,160 --> 00:59:20,200 Speaker 3: in the coming hours. 1199 00:59:21,120 --> 00:59:24,200 Speaker 14: Well, I didn't realize it was such common understanding already, 1200 00:59:24,200 --> 00:59:25,840 Speaker 14: But I do think that a lot of attention to 1201 00:59:26,000 --> 00:59:28,880 Speaker 14: be paid on North Carolina and Georgia right now, and 1202 00:59:28,920 --> 00:59:34,800 Speaker 14: that strategy Arizona would be a fantastic thing to be 1203 00:59:34,840 --> 00:59:37,680 Speaker 14: able to keep in your back pocket for the Democratic Party. 1204 00:59:37,680 --> 00:59:40,880 Speaker 14: But if you're following it all the primary data and 1205 00:59:40,920 --> 00:59:44,760 Speaker 14: the voting registration and responses coming in there now, which 1206 00:59:44,800 --> 00:59:47,960 Speaker 14: is being published weekly, Republicans are far and away ahead 1207 00:59:47,960 --> 00:59:48,640 Speaker 14: in Arizona. 1208 00:59:48,720 --> 00:59:51,080 Speaker 6: So when you look at the in just as the 1209 00:59:51,120 --> 00:59:51,840 Speaker 6: case in Nevada. 1210 00:59:51,920 --> 00:59:53,760 Speaker 14: So as you look at who could be the vice 1211 00:59:53,800 --> 00:59:56,640 Speaker 14: presidential nominee, you know, a Roy Cooper kind of name 1212 00:59:56,680 --> 00:59:59,320 Speaker 14: in North Carolina makes a lot more sense than a 1213 00:59:59,400 --> 01:00:02,400 Speaker 14: Mark Kelly. If they're going to pursue that strategy, which 1214 01:00:02,400 --> 01:00:06,120 Speaker 14: I assume they would, I wouldn't anticipate Raphael Warnock being involved, 1215 01:00:06,120 --> 01:00:09,600 Speaker 14: but I do think that it's really a concentration on 1216 01:00:09,640 --> 01:00:11,760 Speaker 14: the swing states. It's my expectation that you're not going 1217 01:00:11,800 --> 01:00:13,360 Speaker 14: to see two women on the tickets, so that takes 1218 01:00:13,440 --> 01:00:15,800 Speaker 14: Gretch and Whitmer off the table, even though Michigan would 1219 01:00:15,800 --> 01:00:18,880 Speaker 14: be very nice to have some additional shoring up. But 1220 01:00:18,960 --> 01:00:23,320 Speaker 14: Shapiro in Pennsylvania also makes sense. Pritzker and Illinois has 1221 01:00:23,320 --> 01:00:25,560 Speaker 14: talked about a lot, but my personal focus for the 1222 01:00:25,560 --> 01:00:27,280 Speaker 14: next couple weeks is going to be on North Carolina 1223 01:00:27,360 --> 01:00:29,160 Speaker 14: and Georgia, and I assume that's the direction. 1224 01:00:28,880 --> 01:00:32,080 Speaker 12: They're going to go with good reason, Henrietta. When you 1225 01:00:32,120 --> 01:00:34,280 Speaker 12: consider the next three weeks, typically you'd want to roll 1226 01:00:34,320 --> 01:00:36,840 Speaker 12: out something like this as soon as you can. Following 1227 01:00:36,840 --> 01:00:40,880 Speaker 12: your opponent's political convention. The RNC is behind us, Donald 1228 01:00:40,920 --> 01:00:44,400 Speaker 12: Trump and JD Vance are already traveling together. How sure. 1229 01:00:44,640 --> 01:00:47,280 Speaker 12: Does this ticket need to be before we get into 1230 01:00:47,360 --> 01:00:50,080 Speaker 12: Chicago or will this running be decided there? 1231 01:00:51,680 --> 01:00:53,280 Speaker 6: I don't think it needs to be sure at all. 1232 01:00:53,320 --> 01:00:56,480 Speaker 14: I mean, think of Trump announcing Jadie Vance on Monday 1233 01:00:56,720 --> 01:00:59,040 Speaker 14: of the convention. You know, it really doesn't be for 1234 01:00:59,080 --> 01:01:01,640 Speaker 14: a few more weeks. Certainly the delegates are going to 1235 01:01:01,640 --> 01:01:04,080 Speaker 14: be meeting the Roles Committee and all those groups, but 1236 01:01:04,360 --> 01:01:06,080 Speaker 14: you don't need to have a nominee for a while. 1237 01:01:06,240 --> 01:01:08,280 Speaker 6: But what I would encourage investors to think about is 1238 01:01:08,280 --> 01:01:08,920 Speaker 6: that Trump is. 1239 01:01:08,880 --> 01:01:11,240 Speaker 14: At very high numbers in the polls right now, well 1240 01:01:11,280 --> 01:01:14,080 Speaker 14: above where he has been leading Biden in all year, 1241 01:01:14,440 --> 01:01:17,800 Speaker 14: thirty four points five or six in some states. So 1242 01:01:17,960 --> 01:01:20,240 Speaker 14: ask yourself sort of the trajectory of what's going to 1243 01:01:20,280 --> 01:01:22,720 Speaker 14: happen from here. We have of all the names we 1244 01:01:22,840 --> 01:01:25,480 Speaker 14: just listed on the shortlist for VP, almost none of 1245 01:01:25,560 --> 01:01:28,560 Speaker 14: them have written name recognition that's above fifty percent. So 1246 01:01:28,920 --> 01:01:31,480 Speaker 14: there's going to be a tremendous amount of focus on 1247 01:01:31,520 --> 01:01:34,400 Speaker 14: this seismic event because it is so massive to sort 1248 01:01:34,400 --> 01:01:37,160 Speaker 14: of the process of democracy, and that's naturally going to 1249 01:01:37,200 --> 01:01:41,080 Speaker 14: attach attract eyeballs. What we're going to see is massive 1250 01:01:41,160 --> 01:01:44,240 Speaker 14: name recognition shift the polls. I think pretty materially my 1251 01:01:44,360 --> 01:01:46,440 Speaker 14: expectation as we start off at a deficit, I'm going 1252 01:01:46,520 --> 01:01:48,520 Speaker 14: to start treating Trump as though he is the incumbent 1253 01:01:48,800 --> 01:01:51,240 Speaker 14: because he's been president for you know, it's obviously a 1254 01:01:51,240 --> 01:01:52,680 Speaker 14: little bit of a gray area. So I'm going to 1255 01:01:52,680 --> 01:01:56,080 Speaker 14: see want to see Kamala above try out by three 1256 01:01:56,200 --> 01:01:58,320 Speaker 14: or four points in these swing states in order to 1257 01:01:58,480 --> 01:02:01,320 Speaker 14: think that she could reasonably win them. That's going to 1258 01:02:01,320 --> 01:02:02,960 Speaker 14: be the strategy. I think poling is going to move 1259 01:02:03,000 --> 01:02:04,760 Speaker 14: a lot in the next couple of weeks, which. 1260 01:02:06,960 --> 01:02:09,720 Speaker 4: Henrietta, you and Terryans have been just great about that. 1261 01:02:09,880 --> 01:02:13,560 Speaker 4: I'm really interested in what the polls show. Henrietta Trey's 1262 01:02:13,720 --> 01:02:16,440 Speaker 4: Vada partner somehow. I think we'll speak tomorrow. Thank you 1263 01:02:16,520 --> 01:02:19,320 Speaker 4: so much for being with this. 1264 01:02:19,680 --> 01:02:22,560 Speaker 3: You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm 1265 01:02:22,600 --> 01:02:24,640 Speaker 3: David Dura with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. 1266 01:02:25,120 --> 01:02:25,680 Speaker 4: We you ahead. 1267 01:02:26,080 --> 01:02:38,640 Speaker 2: This is Believe. Welcome back to a special edition of 1268 01:02:38,680 --> 01:02:41,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Surveillance from Bloomberg Radio. 1269 01:02:41,920 --> 01:02:44,880 Speaker 3: You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm 1270 01:02:44,960 --> 01:02:48,000 Speaker 3: David Dua with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Breaking News 1271 01:02:48,000 --> 01:02:51,240 Speaker 3: this afternoon, President Joe Biden abandoned his re election bid, 1272 01:02:51,560 --> 01:02:54,480 Speaker 3: Biden saying he would serve out his term, but endorsed 1273 01:02:54,520 --> 01:02:57,400 Speaker 3: Vice President Kamala Harris to take his place as the 1274 01:02:57,400 --> 01:02:58,600 Speaker 3: Democratic nominee. 1275 01:02:58,880 --> 01:03:02,280 Speaker 4: Let us listen Thursday to the vice President of the 1276 01:03:02,400 --> 01:03:03,760 Speaker 4: United States. 1277 01:03:03,520 --> 01:03:06,840 Speaker 15: Donald Trump were to win in November. He will continue 1278 01:03:06,880 --> 01:03:11,720 Speaker 15: to sell out working families, he will continue to attack 1279 01:03:11,960 --> 01:03:21,240 Speaker 15: reproductive freedom, and he will continue to undermine our democracy. 1280 01:03:21,320 --> 01:03:24,760 Speaker 4: The Vice President of the United States here on this 1281 01:03:25,040 --> 01:03:27,240 Speaker 4: very special Sunday that was done a few days ago. 1282 01:03:27,360 --> 01:03:30,400 Speaker 4: Joe Matthew, your thoughts here as we move up towards 1283 01:03:30,440 --> 01:03:31,400 Speaker 4: your balance of power. 1284 01:03:31,720 --> 01:03:34,240 Speaker 12: We heard from JD Vance a short time ago. This 1285 01:03:34,320 --> 01:03:37,120 Speaker 12: is the latest since the decision. Joe Biden has been 1286 01:03:37,120 --> 01:03:39,560 Speaker 12: the worst president in my lifetime. In Kamala Harris right 1287 01:03:39,600 --> 01:03:41,600 Speaker 12: there with him every step of the way. This is 1288 01:03:41,640 --> 01:03:44,360 Speaker 12: going to be the message here that nothing has changed. 1289 01:03:44,800 --> 01:03:47,240 Speaker 12: Remember what we talked about in Milwaukee. This is the 1290 01:03:47,320 --> 01:03:50,080 Speaker 12: same person with a different name. Wait for her to 1291 01:03:50,120 --> 01:03:52,000 Speaker 12: show up at the debate with Donald Trump, which I 1292 01:03:52,000 --> 01:03:54,160 Speaker 12: will submit is going to be a lot more challenging 1293 01:03:54,200 --> 01:03:56,080 Speaker 12: for him than the one he just went through. What 1294 01:03:56,160 --> 01:03:58,919 Speaker 12: the line from the Republican Party is what you see 1295 01:03:58,920 --> 01:04:01,240 Speaker 12: here is the same as well, you had. We just 1296 01:04:01,360 --> 01:04:03,360 Speaker 12: beat Joe Biden. Now we have to do it again 1297 01:04:03,400 --> 01:04:04,280 Speaker 12: with Kamala Harris. 1298 01:04:04,520 --> 01:04:06,240 Speaker 3: Picking up on something you mentioned there, Joe, I mean, 1299 01:04:06,280 --> 01:04:08,800 Speaker 3: I look back at the interview that Bloomberg BusinessWeek did 1300 01:04:08,800 --> 01:04:11,080 Speaker 3: with Donald Trump. He said this very explicitly. I think 1301 01:04:11,080 --> 01:04:13,680 Speaker 3: they asked him in that interview, Nancy Cook, Bradstone and 1302 01:04:13,920 --> 01:04:16,120 Speaker 3: our other colleagues asking him sort of what difference it 1303 01:04:16,160 --> 01:04:19,080 Speaker 3: would make if the nominee wasn't going to be Joe Biden. 1304 01:04:19,080 --> 01:04:21,360 Speaker 3: And what he said was effectively, the campaign is the same. 1305 01:04:21,800 --> 01:04:23,720 Speaker 3: The way that they plan on waging this is the same. 1306 01:04:23,760 --> 01:04:26,720 Speaker 3: And Tom, I think that'll be fascinating to see how 1307 01:04:26,760 --> 01:04:28,520 Speaker 3: true that is here as we move ahead. 1308 01:04:28,720 --> 01:04:31,880 Speaker 4: Joining us right now on Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg Radio, and 1309 01:04:31,920 --> 01:04:35,960 Speaker 4: on YouTube. Is the most important person for us and Washington. 1310 01:04:36,080 --> 01:04:39,600 Speaker 4: She's Margaret Collins. She's the one that takes care of 1311 01:04:39,600 --> 01:04:42,240 Speaker 4: me and Washington gets me through the day somehow, and 1312 01:04:42,320 --> 01:04:45,680 Speaker 4: herds cats to the tune of any really David any 1313 01:04:45,880 --> 01:04:49,480 Speaker 4: Washington News bureau. The person running the news bureau. It's 1314 01:04:49,520 --> 01:04:50,800 Speaker 4: like the worst job at any. 1315 01:04:50,640 --> 01:04:52,720 Speaker 3: News Oh, it's a big job. I'll say that I 1316 01:04:52,720 --> 01:04:54,120 Speaker 3: would call it the worst, but she does. 1317 01:04:55,440 --> 01:04:59,800 Speaker 4: Peggy Collins joins us here on this historic Sunday, Peggy 1318 01:05:00,160 --> 01:05:03,760 Speaker 4: to talk about western Massachusetts, because I can remember times 1319 01:05:03,760 --> 01:05:08,440 Speaker 4: where Massachusetts surprised me on the edge of a purple state. 1320 01:05:08,520 --> 01:05:10,640 Speaker 4: You're out of the College of the Holy Cross, which 1321 01:05:10,680 --> 01:05:15,200 Speaker 4: is from Boston, far western Massachusetts. From your reporting and 1322 01:05:15,240 --> 01:05:17,880 Speaker 4: all the sources you have at our Washington News Bureau, 1323 01:05:18,400 --> 01:05:22,040 Speaker 4: would you assume that purple states became more purple this 1324 01:05:22,120 --> 01:05:23,080 Speaker 4: Sunday afternoon? 1325 01:05:24,440 --> 01:05:27,320 Speaker 16: Well, I think Tom, it remains to be seen, you know, 1326 01:05:27,400 --> 01:05:30,320 Speaker 16: sitting here today in this Washington Bureau that you just 1327 01:05:30,440 --> 01:05:35,280 Speaker 16: mentioned with colleagues like our great Joe Matthew and you, 1328 01:05:35,360 --> 01:05:37,680 Speaker 16: as you're saying when you're visiting, it's just a historic 1329 01:05:37,800 --> 01:05:41,240 Speaker 16: day here in Washington. But there are you know, still 1330 01:05:41,240 --> 01:05:44,600 Speaker 16: several months ago, we're coming off of the Republican National 1331 01:05:44,640 --> 01:05:48,600 Speaker 16: Convention in Milwaukee, where the Republicans were riding high really 1332 01:05:48,640 --> 01:05:51,920 Speaker 16: feeling like that map that you're talking about blue, red, 1333 01:05:51,960 --> 01:05:55,440 Speaker 16: purple had really opened up over the last few weeks 1334 01:05:55,440 --> 01:05:59,360 Speaker 16: after Biden's disastrous debate, and they were talking about states 1335 01:05:59,400 --> 01:06:03,720 Speaker 16: being in play, like Minnesota, New Hampshire, Virginia. But I 1336 01:06:03,760 --> 01:06:06,720 Speaker 16: do think, as David was just mentioning, it's going to 1337 01:06:06,840 --> 01:06:09,640 Speaker 16: be interesting to see where the pools land over the 1338 01:06:09,680 --> 01:06:12,720 Speaker 16: next several days, now that Trump is no longer going 1339 01:06:12,760 --> 01:06:14,960 Speaker 16: to be running against Biden, and you're going to have, 1340 01:06:15,080 --> 01:06:17,480 Speaker 16: no matter what, the younger candidate, you could have a 1341 01:06:17,520 --> 01:06:21,120 Speaker 16: woman candidate, and I think it will change the landscape 1342 01:06:21,160 --> 01:06:21,600 Speaker 16: for sure. 1343 01:06:22,760 --> 01:06:27,680 Speaker 4: Joe Matthew, excuse me, Joe Matthew. There are important Congress people, 1344 01:06:28,120 --> 01:06:32,480 Speaker 4: and then there's the most important Congress person for President. 1345 01:06:32,120 --> 01:06:35,960 Speaker 12: Biden, the man who brung him, as Joe Biden likes 1346 01:06:36,000 --> 01:06:40,120 Speaker 12: to say, Jim Clyburn now making it official endorsing Kamala 1347 01:06:40,160 --> 01:06:43,520 Speaker 12: Harris with a lengthy statement Tom that of course begins 1348 01:06:43,560 --> 01:06:47,360 Speaker 12: with a lengthy paragraph talking about the honor and privilege 1349 01:06:47,400 --> 01:06:49,760 Speaker 12: of calling Joe Biden a friend, but it ends with 1350 01:06:49,840 --> 01:06:52,520 Speaker 12: the endorsement I echo the good judgment he demonstrated, and 1351 01:06:52,600 --> 01:06:56,040 Speaker 12: selecting Vice President Harris to lead this nation alongside him, 1352 01:06:56,240 --> 01:06:58,760 Speaker 12: and proud to follow his lead in support for candidacy 1353 01:06:58,800 --> 01:07:03,000 Speaker 12: to succeed him as the party's nominee for President Peggy Collins. 1354 01:07:03,000 --> 01:07:05,520 Speaker 12: This is a pretty big moment and the Democrats supporting 1355 01:07:05,600 --> 01:07:08,080 Speaker 12: Kamala Harris, who have been very worried about this being 1356 01:07:08,160 --> 01:07:11,280 Speaker 12: blown into an open fight, are probably breathing a sigh 1357 01:07:11,320 --> 01:07:13,840 Speaker 12: of relief. Now is the idea of a contested convention 1358 01:07:14,000 --> 01:07:14,800 Speaker 12: now off the table? 1359 01:07:16,200 --> 01:07:18,160 Speaker 16: I don't think it's off the table, Joe, But the 1360 01:07:18,200 --> 01:07:21,000 Speaker 16: signs that we're seeing from our reporting so far is 1361 01:07:21,040 --> 01:07:24,600 Speaker 16: that quickly a number of key Democrats, including the Clintons, 1362 01:07:25,000 --> 01:07:27,800 Speaker 16: are coming out and endorsing Harris. So the current right 1363 01:07:27,840 --> 01:07:30,880 Speaker 16: now seems to be going in her direction without any 1364 01:07:30,960 --> 01:07:35,040 Speaker 16: big names that have been talked about, Whitmer, Pritzker, Newsomb, 1365 01:07:35,120 --> 01:07:37,920 Speaker 16: you know, coming out yet to challenge. They don't have 1366 01:07:38,040 --> 01:07:41,440 Speaker 16: a lot of time left before the Democratic National Convention 1367 01:07:41,600 --> 01:07:45,000 Speaker 16: starts on August nineteenth, so the question of whether or 1368 01:07:45,040 --> 01:07:48,680 Speaker 16: not the party can hold together behind a candidate between 1369 01:07:48,680 --> 01:07:50,520 Speaker 16: now and then is critical. 1370 01:07:51,320 --> 01:07:51,640 Speaker 4: Peggy. 1371 01:07:51,720 --> 01:07:55,200 Speaker 3: I think of the old Hemingway quote about Bankruptcley slowly 1372 01:07:55,360 --> 01:07:57,920 Speaker 3: than all at once as I think about how all 1373 01:07:57,960 --> 01:08:00,760 Speaker 3: of this happened, and there was the beginning a handful 1374 01:08:00,800 --> 01:08:03,840 Speaker 3: of Congress people who raised alarm about this suggested that 1375 01:08:03,880 --> 01:08:06,080 Speaker 3: Joe Biden should drop out. That began to build over 1376 01:08:06,120 --> 01:08:09,240 Speaker 3: the last few days that's gotten us to this moment. 1377 01:08:09,880 --> 01:08:12,560 Speaker 3: What is your perspective on the timing of all of this. 1378 01:08:12,720 --> 01:08:14,400 Speaker 3: You know, we have a few weeks here till the convention, 1379 01:08:14,640 --> 01:08:18,040 Speaker 3: one hundred and seven days until the election itself. I 1380 01:08:18,080 --> 01:08:19,960 Speaker 3: guess what I'm asking you is is what took the 1381 01:08:19,960 --> 01:08:22,160 Speaker 3: president so long as we sort of saw the writing 1382 01:08:22,200 --> 01:08:24,960 Speaker 3: on the wall, and how much does that sort of 1383 01:08:25,800 --> 01:08:28,559 Speaker 3: not damage the Democratic Party here going forward but set 1384 01:08:28,600 --> 01:08:32,000 Speaker 3: them back? Yes, he had COVID, Yes he was road 1385 01:08:32,040 --> 01:08:34,720 Speaker 3: with Beach Delaware fighting that and thinking through all of this. 1386 01:08:34,800 --> 01:08:36,479 Speaker 3: But what do you make of how long this took 1387 01:08:36,479 --> 01:08:39,519 Speaker 3: in light of that poor debate performance and what happens since? 1388 01:08:40,600 --> 01:08:42,360 Speaker 16: Well, I think a couple of things, David, As you 1389 01:08:42,439 --> 01:08:45,280 Speaker 16: mentioned the debate performance June twenty seventh, but you know, 1390 01:08:45,320 --> 01:08:49,080 Speaker 16: we were working furiously through July fourth weekend because cracks 1391 01:08:49,080 --> 01:08:52,240 Speaker 16: had already started to form then. So he held on 1392 01:08:52,360 --> 01:08:55,160 Speaker 16: for weeks. He held on through NATO, which was happening 1393 01:08:55,200 --> 01:08:58,800 Speaker 16: here in Washington after July fourth weekend, and then he 1394 01:08:58,880 --> 01:09:00,840 Speaker 16: went through the presser but didn't knock it. 1395 01:09:00,800 --> 01:09:01,519 Speaker 1: Out of the park. 1396 01:09:01,720 --> 01:09:05,720 Speaker 16: It was okay after the NATO meeting, and I think 1397 01:09:05,760 --> 01:09:08,960 Speaker 16: it's this past week the mountain of pressure that just 1398 01:09:09,080 --> 01:09:12,000 Speaker 16: kept building and more and more people coming out, even 1399 01:09:12,040 --> 01:09:16,400 Speaker 16: while the Republicans were convening in Milwaukee and either even 1400 01:09:16,479 --> 01:09:20,679 Speaker 16: after the attemptive assassination with Trump that certain key people 1401 01:09:20,720 --> 01:09:23,479 Speaker 16: came out and called for the President to step aside 1402 01:09:23,640 --> 01:09:25,840 Speaker 16: in the race. I will also note, when you think 1403 01:09:25,880 --> 01:09:28,360 Speaker 16: about the last time this happened in nineteen sixty eight 1404 01:09:28,439 --> 01:09:31,880 Speaker 16: with LBJ, he didn't address from the Oval Office. That 1405 01:09:32,000 --> 01:09:34,240 Speaker 16: surprised the nation at the time to say he was 1406 01:09:34,280 --> 01:09:36,840 Speaker 16: not going to seek reelection. In this case, I think 1407 01:09:36,880 --> 01:09:39,880 Speaker 16: Biden really truly was trying to hold on and thought 1408 01:09:39,920 --> 01:09:41,880 Speaker 16: he might be able to make a case to stay 1409 01:09:41,920 --> 01:09:44,920 Speaker 16: in the race. But ultimately the pressure just broke that 1410 01:09:45,080 --> 01:09:47,519 Speaker 16: damn and he had to make the announcement in a 1411 01:09:47,600 --> 01:09:52,080 Speaker 16: statement over Twitter because he's dealing with COVID in Rehova speech. 1412 01:09:52,200 --> 01:09:54,160 Speaker 16: So I think it's not the way they wanted to 1413 01:09:54,200 --> 01:09:56,400 Speaker 16: do it, certainly, and I think he was fighting to 1414 01:09:56,439 --> 01:09:57,479 Speaker 16: the bitter end to hold on. 1415 01:09:57,840 --> 01:10:00,639 Speaker 3: Peggy, what's that speech going to be? Like alluded to 1416 01:10:00,760 --> 01:10:03,120 Speaker 3: in that note to the American people, He's going to 1417 01:10:03,160 --> 01:10:06,000 Speaker 3: explain his decision more in the coming days. Here, What 1418 01:10:06,000 --> 01:10:08,040 Speaker 3: do you what do our colleagues expect in terms of 1419 01:10:08,080 --> 01:10:11,479 Speaker 3: both presentation, what we're likely to hear from the President, 1420 01:10:11,680 --> 01:10:13,479 Speaker 3: any sense at this point of how much that's going 1421 01:10:13,520 --> 01:10:15,680 Speaker 3: to mirror what we got from LBJ in nineteen sixty eight. 1422 01:10:16,840 --> 01:10:19,479 Speaker 16: I think we're still reporting out when exactly that will 1423 01:10:19,520 --> 01:10:22,840 Speaker 16: be and where he will do it. We think that 1424 01:10:22,920 --> 01:10:25,400 Speaker 16: it would likely be from the White House. But I 1425 01:10:25,400 --> 01:10:27,600 Speaker 16: think in terms of the themes we expect him to 1426 01:10:27,640 --> 01:10:31,280 Speaker 16: hit so far, would certainly be on democracy. That's something 1427 01:10:31,320 --> 01:10:35,000 Speaker 16: that he really hammered in on before the midterms a 1428 01:10:35,040 --> 01:10:37,520 Speaker 16: couple of years ago and had a lot of resonance. 1429 01:10:37,560 --> 01:10:39,679 Speaker 16: But I do think it's one thing that he really 1430 01:10:39,720 --> 01:10:41,840 Speaker 16: had said time and time again that he feels like 1431 01:10:41,880 --> 01:10:44,519 Speaker 16: this is an election where democracy is on the line, 1432 01:10:44,840 --> 01:10:48,760 Speaker 16: and he feels like he has held up democracy here 1433 01:10:48,800 --> 01:10:51,240 Speaker 16: in the country. So we expect that and also expect 1434 01:10:51,320 --> 01:10:54,240 Speaker 16: him to note a couple of his key achievements, that 1435 01:10:54,360 --> 01:10:57,840 Speaker 16: being the huge infrastructure spending bill that he got passed 1436 01:10:57,840 --> 01:11:01,280 Speaker 16: through and the Inflation Act that has a lot of 1437 01:11:01,640 --> 01:11:06,280 Speaker 16: future spending on things like energy efficiency electric vehicles, which 1438 01:11:06,280 --> 01:11:08,840 Speaker 16: of course the Republicans have attacked. But I think he 1439 01:11:08,960 --> 01:11:13,320 Speaker 16: will hone in on some of his legislative achievements and 1440 01:11:13,439 --> 01:11:15,640 Speaker 16: harken back to like where he started and what he 1441 01:11:15,680 --> 01:11:17,799 Speaker 16: wanted to do when he first became president. 1442 01:11:19,160 --> 01:11:20,680 Speaker 12: Peggy, what do you think of the fact that this 1443 01:11:20,760 --> 01:11:23,320 Speaker 12: rolled out on Twitter? Is Joe Biden not physically well 1444 01:11:23,400 --> 01:11:25,720 Speaker 12: enough to address the American people? Shouldn't this be an 1445 01:11:25,720 --> 01:11:26,800 Speaker 12: oval office address? 1446 01:11:28,200 --> 01:11:30,960 Speaker 4: You asked a delicate question, Joe Matthew I thought of 1447 01:11:30,960 --> 01:11:33,960 Speaker 4: that driving in here. I mean, you really wonder at 1448 01:11:34,000 --> 01:11:37,080 Speaker 4: the pace of this. Thank you Joe for asking't it? Peggy? 1449 01:11:38,280 --> 01:11:40,640 Speaker 16: I think COVID is one hundred percent a factor. I 1450 01:11:40,680 --> 01:11:44,639 Speaker 16: think you know, he wasn't looking good last week when 1451 01:11:44,640 --> 01:11:47,760 Speaker 16: they announced that he was he had COVID and was 1452 01:11:47,760 --> 01:11:50,400 Speaker 16: going to need to isolate. And I think we're on 1453 01:11:50,439 --> 01:11:53,200 Speaker 16: a Sunday and we're going into the week markets are 1454 01:11:53,200 --> 01:11:55,800 Speaker 16: going to open in Asia. I think they really did 1455 01:11:55,880 --> 01:11:58,200 Speaker 16: feel like, with the mountain of pressure that they needed 1456 01:11:58,240 --> 01:12:00,920 Speaker 16: to make a decision. They couldn't just leave it hanging 1457 01:12:00,960 --> 01:12:02,800 Speaker 16: in the air in terms of the good for the 1458 01:12:02,840 --> 01:12:05,479 Speaker 16: party over the next several days. But I don't think 1459 01:12:05,520 --> 01:12:08,559 Speaker 16: this is the ideal scenario for how they would have 1460 01:12:08,720 --> 01:12:11,839 Speaker 16: liked to do it. And because he is still recovering 1461 01:12:11,840 --> 01:12:14,479 Speaker 16: from COVID, so therefore or can't do a public address 1462 01:12:14,520 --> 01:12:15,680 Speaker 16: the way they might have wanted to. 1463 01:12:15,920 --> 01:12:20,479 Speaker 4: Margaret Collins, our Washington newsbrial chief, a lengthy Sunday to 1464 01:12:20,520 --> 01:12:22,240 Speaker 4: say the least, thank you so much for you and 1465 01:12:22,320 --> 01:12:26,599 Speaker 4: your team's effort in Washington. There is a view from 1466 01:12:26,640 --> 01:12:31,080 Speaker 4: sixteen hundred Pennsylvania Avenue. It is a different view on 1467 01:12:31,120 --> 01:12:34,960 Speaker 4: this Sunday afternoon, David Gura, Jordan Fabian has been seeing 1468 01:12:35,040 --> 01:12:37,000 Speaker 4: it from there to Delaware. 1469 01:12:37,600 --> 01:12:39,800 Speaker 3: Jordan, great to have you with us here for your 1470 01:12:40,000 --> 01:12:42,439 Speaker 3: perspective on this as well. And maybe I can put 1471 01:12:42,439 --> 01:12:44,360 Speaker 3: to you a variation of the question that I asked Peggy, 1472 01:12:44,400 --> 01:12:47,360 Speaker 3: which is what has this weekend been like? What has 1473 01:12:47,400 --> 01:12:51,040 Speaker 3: the build been like in recent days to this moment? 1474 01:12:51,240 --> 01:12:55,160 Speaker 3: You charting the president's state of mind and what he's 1475 01:12:55,200 --> 01:12:57,320 Speaker 3: been up to. And in Rehoboth Beach where he has 1476 01:12:57,320 --> 01:13:00,760 Speaker 3: a home, what finally broke the dam? Final convinced him 1477 01:13:00,920 --> 01:13:03,479 Speaker 3: from your reporting, what convinced him that this was the 1478 01:13:03,520 --> 01:13:04,080 Speaker 3: decision that he. 1479 01:13:04,040 --> 01:13:04,439 Speaker 2: Had to make. 1480 01:13:04,720 --> 01:13:07,519 Speaker 10: Yeah, Look, he's been under just relentless pressure from his 1481 01:13:07,640 --> 01:13:11,280 Speaker 10: allies even after he was diagnosed with COVID. Last week 1482 01:13:11,640 --> 01:13:15,320 Speaker 10: he saw at least a dozen other Democratic lawmakers come out, 1483 01:13:15,400 --> 01:13:18,479 Speaker 10: and so it appeared the pressure just became unbearable. It's 1484 01:13:18,520 --> 01:13:21,479 Speaker 10: still surprising though, I mean, Biden has been, you know, 1485 01:13:21,479 --> 01:13:25,360 Speaker 10: a stubborn guy throughout his career. In the weeks prior, 1486 01:13:25,439 --> 01:13:27,680 Speaker 10: it seemed like the pressure was only causing him to 1487 01:13:27,720 --> 01:13:30,840 Speaker 10: dig in further. But you know, perhaps weekend, by COVID, 1488 01:13:31,160 --> 01:13:33,479 Speaker 10: sitting at home in Rehoboth Beach with his family and 1489 01:13:33,520 --> 01:13:36,759 Speaker 10: close advisors, they were able to step back and reflect 1490 01:13:37,080 --> 01:13:39,599 Speaker 10: and just see the picture that a past the victories 1491 01:13:39,720 --> 01:13:41,519 Speaker 10: against Donald Trump just wasn't tenable. 1492 01:13:44,280 --> 01:13:47,759 Speaker 12: What happens, go ahead, go ahead, shoe yes, sorry, David. 1493 01:13:47,840 --> 01:13:50,240 Speaker 12: What happens with this meeting with Benjamin Nettan ya who 1494 01:13:50,520 --> 01:13:52,519 Speaker 12: this week? Some thought that would be a reason for 1495 01:13:52,640 --> 01:13:55,160 Speaker 12: Joe Biden to postpone a statement like this. He still 1496 01:13:55,200 --> 01:13:57,360 Speaker 12: plans to meet with the prime minister. Does this go 1497 01:13:57,479 --> 01:13:58,360 Speaker 12: as schedules? 1498 01:13:59,600 --> 01:14:01,840 Speaker 10: There's a lot of uncertainty right now, and so I 1499 01:14:01,840 --> 01:14:04,760 Speaker 10: don't want to say anything definitively, but we haven't heard 1500 01:14:04,800 --> 01:14:08,280 Speaker 10: otherwise that that's rescheduled. The President did indicate in his 1501 01:14:08,400 --> 01:14:11,160 Speaker 10: statement that he's going to serve out his term, so 1502 01:14:11,479 --> 01:14:14,679 Speaker 10: an official act like that, like meeting with the leader 1503 01:14:14,720 --> 01:14:16,960 Speaker 10: of Israel would seem to stay on the schedule, but 1504 01:14:17,000 --> 01:14:19,800 Speaker 10: we just don't know for sure at this time what 1505 01:14:19,960 --> 01:14:20,679 Speaker 10: he's really going. 1506 01:14:20,600 --> 01:14:24,080 Speaker 4: To do next week. Joined a delicate question. How is 1507 01:14:24,160 --> 01:14:27,280 Speaker 4: missus Biden the first Lady? Has there been any reporting 1508 01:14:27,320 --> 01:14:30,360 Speaker 4: this afternoon of well, I guess the family in general, 1509 01:14:30,439 --> 01:14:35,200 Speaker 4: but I think all of any persuasion of politics would 1510 01:14:35,280 --> 01:14:38,720 Speaker 4: like to know how the first Lady is doing. Has 1511 01:14:38,760 --> 01:14:41,320 Speaker 4: there been any reporting on that, Jordan Fabian. 1512 01:14:42,960 --> 01:14:46,160 Speaker 10: It's been hard to figure out what exactly the reaction is, 1513 01:14:46,200 --> 01:14:48,439 Speaker 10: but this has to be a painful moment for the 1514 01:14:48,439 --> 01:14:51,439 Speaker 10: Biden family. Joe Biden is someone who spent five decades 1515 01:14:51,760 --> 01:14:54,960 Speaker 10: in Washington working toward the goal becoming president. He finally 1516 01:14:54,960 --> 01:14:58,360 Speaker 10: achieves echo in twenty twenty. And you know, he obviously 1517 01:14:58,400 --> 01:15:02,040 Speaker 10: accomplished a lot help defeat Donald Trump, but his uh, 1518 01:15:02,360 --> 01:15:05,639 Speaker 10: his presidency is going to end in one term against 1519 01:15:05,960 --> 01:15:08,840 Speaker 10: and amid a lot of recriminations from fellow Democrats and 1520 01:15:08,920 --> 01:15:09,680 Speaker 10: friends to get out. 1521 01:15:09,760 --> 01:15:12,880 Speaker 4: Jordan Fabian, thank you so much, your White House correspondent. 1522 01:15:13,080 --> 01:15:15,880 Speaker 3: You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm 1523 01:15:15,960 --> 01:15:19,080 Speaker 3: David Dura with Tom Keane and Joe Matthew plenty ahead 1524 01:15:19,479 --> 01:15:25,360 Speaker 3: this he's bloom