1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:08,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:13,280 Speaker 2: Ghana and South Africa both delivered budgets this week against 3 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:16,040 Speaker 2: a backdrop of a struggling global economy. 4 00:00:16,160 --> 00:00:20,000 Speaker 3: The state of our economy is troubling, but we will 5 00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:27,440 Speaker 3: fix it. It will require some sacrifices, truthfulness, transparency and 6 00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:28,720 Speaker 3: discipline to. 7 00:00:28,720 --> 00:00:32,559 Speaker 4: Raise the revel you needed. The government proposes to increase 8 00:00:33,600 --> 00:00:37,720 Speaker 4: evetererate by half a percentage point in twenty five twenty 9 00:00:37,760 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 4: six and by another half a percent a point in 10 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:43,600 Speaker 4: the following year. 11 00:00:44,360 --> 00:00:46,960 Speaker 2: Both countries have big holes in their budgets to fill. 12 00:00:47,080 --> 00:00:49,800 Speaker 2: But will the spending cuts and tax rises be enough 13 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:51,880 Speaker 2: and will the public accept them? 14 00:00:52,000 --> 00:00:54,640 Speaker 1: So the democratic Allians will not be supporting the budget 15 00:00:54,640 --> 00:00:57,320 Speaker 1: in its current form and therefore the budget being table 16 00:00:57,400 --> 00:00:59,360 Speaker 1: to does not have a parliamentary majority. 17 00:00:59,600 --> 00:01:02,440 Speaker 2: On today podcast, we'll look at what these big economies 18 00:01:02,480 --> 00:01:05,520 Speaker 2: on two sides of the continent tell us about Africa's 19 00:01:05,520 --> 00:01:11,600 Speaker 2: growth story in twenty twenty five. I'm Jennifer Zabasaja and 20 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:15,040 Speaker 2: this is the Next Africa Podcast, bringing you one story 21 00:01:15,120 --> 00:01:18,040 Speaker 2: each week from the continent driving the future of global 22 00:01:18,040 --> 00:01:24,320 Speaker 2: growth with the context only Bloomberg can provide. Joining us 23 00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:27,400 Speaker 2: today is Bloomberg Economics Africa Economists. 24 00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:30,360 Speaker 5: That's von Mango Evon. Thanks so much for being here. 25 00:01:30,640 --> 00:01:32,840 Speaker 2: We haven't had you on the podcast, so appreciate you 26 00:01:32,880 --> 00:01:33,600 Speaker 2: making the time. 27 00:01:33,959 --> 00:01:35,280 Speaker 5: Let's just start with Ghana. 28 00:01:35,400 --> 00:01:39,080 Speaker 2: This is the first budget for the new Mohamma administration. 29 00:01:39,720 --> 00:01:44,119 Speaker 2: What was Finance Minister Cassio Atto Forsen faced with when 30 00:01:44,160 --> 00:01:46,600 Speaker 2: putting his plans together and did he achieve that? 31 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:50,640 Speaker 1: So the challenge of the John Muhamma administration which has 32 00:01:50,720 --> 00:01:53,760 Speaker 1: just come into office is that they've inherited a fiscal miss, 33 00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 1: essentially the inherited in economy with high inflation deficits that 34 00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:01,560 Speaker 1: will wider than anticipation and they're going to have to 35 00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:04,920 Speaker 1: correct this. Their plan is quite ambitious. Their plan to 36 00:02:05,000 --> 00:02:08,480 Speaker 1: turn the primary deficit of three point nine percent into 37 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:11,960 Speaker 1: a surplus of one point five percent of GDP this year. 38 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:17,160 Speaker 1: That's quite a significant physical adjustment and will require some sacrifices. 39 00:02:17,880 --> 00:02:21,560 Speaker 2: How realistic is that considering the situation that Gama is 40 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:22,160 Speaker 2: in right now. 41 00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:26,119 Speaker 1: So our primary view is they may all likely miss 42 00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:29,040 Speaker 1: that because as I mentioned, that's quite a significant fiscal adjustment. 43 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:32,320 Speaker 1: It requires a significant cut in spending, which they have 44 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:35,880 Speaker 1: pledged to do. As well as a significant increase on 45 00:02:35,919 --> 00:02:39,480 Speaker 1: the revenue front. On the revenue side, they've increased levees 46 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:42,760 Speaker 1: to the mining sector and taking advantage of the higher 47 00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:46,080 Speaker 1: goal prices, so they'll get income through there. And on 48 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:48,240 Speaker 1: the spending side, yes, I think about a tenth of 49 00:02:48,240 --> 00:02:51,200 Speaker 1: the budget in terms of cuts will take places here. 50 00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:55,400 Speaker 1: But given that some spending can be and anticipated, you're 51 00:02:55,440 --> 00:02:58,160 Speaker 1: likely to see the mess that particular target. 52 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:02,119 Speaker 5: So what is the target that economics is expecting. 53 00:03:02,240 --> 00:03:05,320 Speaker 1: We expect there to be a small primary deficit or 54 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:08,280 Speaker 1: at least close to zero on the primary deficit side, 55 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:11,440 Speaker 1: would it still be a significant improvement from a deficit 56 00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:14,600 Speaker 1: that was around four percent of GDP? In order to 57 00:03:14,880 --> 00:03:18,840 Speaker 1: arrest that increase in public debt, you need a primary 58 00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:21,840 Speaker 1: surplus and that's what this administration is trying to achieve. 59 00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:25,880 Speaker 1: So the goals are commendable, but it will probably take 60 00:03:25,919 --> 00:03:29,520 Speaker 1: them longer to achieve them than they're currently suggesting. 61 00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:32,520 Speaker 2: How much do you think gold could potentially be a 62 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:37,000 Speaker 2: contributor to that surplus that the government is trying to achieve. 63 00:03:37,040 --> 00:03:40,160 Speaker 2: We are seeing record prices for gold you mentioned mining. 64 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:42,800 Speaker 2: How much could that really move the need of for them? 65 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:46,400 Speaker 1: Well, it's an important contributor, considering it's one of their 66 00:03:46,640 --> 00:03:50,280 Speaker 1: biggest exports, also in this time when prices are quite 67 00:03:50,320 --> 00:03:55,040 Speaker 1: significantly high. However, it is not the only driver of revenue. 68 00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:58,520 Speaker 1: You need revenue to be performing well in other parts 69 00:03:58,520 --> 00:04:01,720 Speaker 1: of the economy. Wouldn't lean too much on the gold 70 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:05,280 Speaker 1: sector getting them out of this fiscal mess that they're in. 71 00:04:05,600 --> 00:04:09,080 Speaker 2: Everyone what's Bloomberg economics expectation for the CD because a 72 00:04:09,080 --> 00:04:11,480 Speaker 2: lot of focus is being paid to currencies across the 73 00:04:11,480 --> 00:04:12,600 Speaker 2: continent right now. 74 00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:15,200 Speaker 1: So the sceity is likely to continue to come under pressure. 75 00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:18,520 Speaker 1: Keep in mind, though they've been successful at restructuring their 76 00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 1: debt domestically, they're still haven't got complete access to international 77 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:29,200 Speaker 1: capital marketers yet, so that restrains how much foreign capital 78 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:32,440 Speaker 1: can flow into the country, which implies the currency will 79 00:04:32,600 --> 00:04:35,640 Speaker 1: likely continue to come under pressure as they go through 80 00:04:35,680 --> 00:04:37,520 Speaker 1: this fiscal consolidation plan. 81 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:39,960 Speaker 2: So the country is not necessarily out of the woods 82 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:41,480 Speaker 2: yet this new administration. 83 00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:44,040 Speaker 1: Oh not as yet. Of course, the big hurdle has 84 00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:47,200 Speaker 1: been jumped, which is debt restructuring, which is a big positive. 85 00:04:47,520 --> 00:04:50,960 Speaker 1: But this administration, as they've said themselves, have a big 86 00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:55,599 Speaker 1: job to do in terms of correcting the fiscal challenges 87 00:04:55,640 --> 00:04:58,440 Speaker 1: that they found. We do think that if they remain 88 00:04:58,560 --> 00:05:01,400 Speaker 1: on this path, by the time they reached the end 89 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:04,200 Speaker 1: of their four year term, we should begin to see 90 00:05:04,200 --> 00:05:07,719 Speaker 1: a turnaround on the fiscal front and that should begin 91 00:05:07,760 --> 00:05:11,640 Speaker 1: to reflect in a much more stable currency and lower inflation. 92 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:15,760 Speaker 2: Okay, so somewhat positive there for at least this new administration. 93 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:18,960 Speaker 5: That's only a few months in. Let's turn to South Africa. 94 00:05:19,279 --> 00:05:22,279 Speaker 2: It's also the first budget for this new g and 95 00:05:22,400 --> 00:05:26,599 Speaker 2: U coalition government. A lot of different views on the 96 00:05:26,640 --> 00:05:30,120 Speaker 2: budget that we got on Wednesday. Talk to us about 97 00:05:30,279 --> 00:05:32,200 Speaker 2: your assessment of what was presented. 98 00:05:32,800 --> 00:05:35,800 Speaker 1: Okay, So, as you saw, the budget was delayed by 99 00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:38,320 Speaker 1: three weeks and the main reason is the two big 100 00:05:38,360 --> 00:05:44,520 Speaker 1: parties in the ruling coalition government disagreed on the VAT increase. 101 00:05:44,920 --> 00:05:47,479 Speaker 1: What we did see is a compromise. Instead of a 102 00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:50,960 Speaker 1: two percentage point increase in that to seventeen percent, this 103 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:55,160 Speaker 1: new budget proposes fifty basis points hike over the course 104 00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:57,320 Speaker 1: of two years, so essentially a percentage point over the 105 00:05:57,320 --> 00:06:00,200 Speaker 1: course of two years. So that's a compromise. However, we 106 00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:02,719 Speaker 1: are noting that this may not be enough for the 107 00:06:02,720 --> 00:06:06,279 Speaker 1: Democratic Alliance to vote for the passage of the budget. 108 00:06:06,680 --> 00:06:11,080 Speaker 1: They'd like to see more, in particular proposals that will 109 00:06:11,600 --> 00:06:14,080 Speaker 1: expedite growth. I think one of the big challenges So 110 00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 1: Africa faces, and we do agree at Bloomberg Economics, is 111 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:19,440 Speaker 1: that So Africa is a growth problem. It's why the 112 00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:23,960 Speaker 1: budget persistently misses its revenue targets. That's why there's pressure 113 00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:27,160 Speaker 1: on them to use tax policy to increase revenue. However, 114 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:30,120 Speaker 1: on the spending side, more needs to be done, particular 115 00:06:30,240 --> 00:06:34,200 Speaker 1: cutting inefficient spending, and that's something the Democratic Alliance is 116 00:06:34,240 --> 00:06:37,000 Speaker 1: pushing for. So we are going to see over the 117 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:41,480 Speaker 1: next coming weeks parties within the coalition meeting to discuss 118 00:06:41,680 --> 00:06:44,600 Speaker 1: concessions that the NC may need to make in order 119 00:06:44,640 --> 00:06:47,200 Speaker 1: to get the likes of the Democratic Alliance to vote 120 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:48,000 Speaker 1: for a budget. 121 00:06:48,279 --> 00:06:51,200 Speaker 2: I've also been struck evon by a lot of the 122 00:06:51,240 --> 00:06:55,480 Speaker 2: discussion around tax collection here in South Africa and how 123 00:06:55,920 --> 00:07:00,680 Speaker 2: the ideology around that potentially needs to change in the government. 124 00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:04,240 Speaker 2: Do you think it's the inefficient way to collect revenue? 125 00:07:04,760 --> 00:07:07,119 Speaker 2: Is it what South Africa needs right now, this economy needs. 126 00:07:07,880 --> 00:07:10,760 Speaker 1: I think the Soufric Revenue Service has actually done a 127 00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:14,120 Speaker 1: much better job of tax collection in recent years, particularly 128 00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:16,840 Speaker 1: under Edward Kristwitter, who was appointed I think about four 129 00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:20,000 Speaker 1: years ago, so that has improved. Of course, there's more 130 00:07:20,000 --> 00:07:22,440 Speaker 1: that can be done there those that are evading taxes. 131 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:24,600 Speaker 1: I think one of the positives of this budget is 132 00:07:24,600 --> 00:07:27,520 Speaker 1: that the allocation to the revenue Authority has been increased 133 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:31,960 Speaker 1: so that they can address the non compliant taxpayers even 134 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:34,760 Speaker 1: more and try and bring them into the tax base 135 00:07:34,840 --> 00:07:37,960 Speaker 1: so they are compliant and contributing. So I think that's 136 00:07:38,000 --> 00:07:39,560 Speaker 1: less of an issue. I think the big issue in 137 00:07:39,640 --> 00:07:43,680 Speaker 1: Africa is African's over tax. It's just the reality taxed, yes, 138 00:07:43,880 --> 00:07:46,520 Speaker 1: in terms of income tax and the concern and that's 139 00:07:46,520 --> 00:07:48,480 Speaker 1: one of the reasons why you didn't see them, despite 140 00:07:48,520 --> 00:07:51,160 Speaker 1: the pressure to increase revenues, you didn't see them fiddle 141 00:07:51,360 --> 00:07:55,000 Speaker 1: personal income tax and corporate tax because in raising that 142 00:07:55,120 --> 00:07:58,280 Speaker 1: you'd actually get contrary result in that you'd probably get 143 00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:01,920 Speaker 1: less revenue because you'd squeeze growth, and of course you 144 00:08:02,280 --> 00:08:06,120 Speaker 1: find that businesses and households would find ways of evading 145 00:08:06,440 --> 00:08:10,000 Speaker 1: paying that tax, so you actually hurt the tax revenue 146 00:08:10,040 --> 00:08:14,000 Speaker 1: coming through. So back to the main point is the 147 00:08:14,000 --> 00:08:16,560 Speaker 1: point I made earlier. Growth is the issue if the 148 00:08:16,560 --> 00:08:20,760 Speaker 1: economy was growing faster. Revenue in itself will grow and 149 00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:24,360 Speaker 1: would help them achieve their debt stabilization targets. 150 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:28,320 Speaker 2: Considering that you said that there's a growth problem, are 151 00:08:28,360 --> 00:08:31,320 Speaker 2: there any green shoots though you see positives for the 152 00:08:31,360 --> 00:08:33,120 Speaker 2: economy moving forward? 153 00:08:33,559 --> 00:08:36,559 Speaker 1: Well, yes, so there has been an increase in the 154 00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:39,680 Speaker 1: allocation made to infrastructure. I think the plan is to 155 00:08:39,679 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 1: spend about a trillion brands on infrastructure over the medium term. 156 00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:47,520 Speaker 1: That's of course private sector partnering with the government. So yes, 157 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:51,880 Speaker 1: there is a focus on trying to spend more on 158 00:08:52,440 --> 00:08:56,680 Speaker 1: areas that are growth enhancing, but more could be done 159 00:08:56,720 --> 00:09:00,520 Speaker 1: in terms of easing regulations, easing labor to the tea 160 00:09:00,559 --> 00:09:04,840 Speaker 1: that is a significant issue in South Africa, in addition 161 00:09:04,840 --> 00:09:09,520 Speaker 1: to the ongoing spending reviews, actually acting on the outcomes 162 00:09:09,559 --> 00:09:13,560 Speaker 1: of those reviews to try and cut inefficient spending, improve 163 00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:17,839 Speaker 1: the procurement processes that state owned enterprises. These are all 164 00:09:17,920 --> 00:09:21,319 Speaker 1: areas that would help them bring down debt a lot 165 00:09:21,400 --> 00:09:22,840 Speaker 1: faster than we're seeing today. 166 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:25,280 Speaker 2: Ivan stick with us when we come back, we'll dig 167 00:09:25,280 --> 00:09:28,280 Speaker 2: into how the markets have reacted and what these budgets 168 00:09:28,320 --> 00:09:31,080 Speaker 2: actually tell us about the state of the African economy. 169 00:09:31,400 --> 00:09:39,480 Speaker 5: We'll be right back. Welcome back today. 170 00:09:39,480 --> 00:09:43,080 Speaker 2: We're digging into Africa's economy after two crucial budgets were 171 00:09:43,120 --> 00:09:45,600 Speaker 2: revealed this week that was in Ghana and South Africa. 172 00:09:45,920 --> 00:09:49,240 Speaker 2: We have our Africa economists Evon and Mango still with us. 173 00:09:49,480 --> 00:09:51,960 Speaker 2: So Ivon, what do you make of the reaction that 174 00:09:52,000 --> 00:09:54,520 Speaker 2: we've seen to the budgets, especially in the markets. 175 00:09:55,440 --> 00:09:58,800 Speaker 1: So in the case of South Africa, they is caution 176 00:09:59,360 --> 00:10:01,480 Speaker 1: and the main way and for that is the second 177 00:10:01,480 --> 00:10:03,280 Speaker 1: biggest party in the coalition. I said they're not going 178 00:10:03,320 --> 00:10:05,720 Speaker 1: to pass the budget in its current form. So while 179 00:10:05,720 --> 00:10:07,840 Speaker 1: a budget has been read, we essentially don't have a 180 00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:10,920 Speaker 1: budget as it is and that will be decided over 181 00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:13,360 Speaker 1: the coming weeks. Also keep in mind this is the 182 00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:15,320 Speaker 1: first time we have a coalition government, so this is 183 00:10:15,320 --> 00:10:18,560 Speaker 1: all new. The minister mentioned to himself he's a new territory, 184 00:10:18,800 --> 00:10:21,560 Speaker 1: so they have to find themselves. We do believe that 185 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:25,360 Speaker 1: the parties are willing to work together in order to 186 00:10:25,800 --> 00:10:28,640 Speaker 1: find some sort of compromise and put forward a budget. 187 00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:31,760 Speaker 1: So we're not expecting an untoward result at the end 188 00:10:31,800 --> 00:10:35,120 Speaker 1: of these negotiations, but it will take time and the meantime, 189 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:38,080 Speaker 1: the markets will be cautious. We saw the rand losses 190 00:10:38,160 --> 00:10:41,760 Speaker 1: yesterday yesterday following the reading of the budget, and that's 191 00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:45,400 Speaker 1: just demonstrating investors taking a cautious view. 192 00:10:46,040 --> 00:10:49,240 Speaker 2: And I wonder if we think about what is happening 193 00:10:49,280 --> 00:10:52,120 Speaker 2: in the global economy, there is a lot happening for 194 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:54,959 Speaker 2: the markets and for investors globally to digest. I mean, 195 00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:58,559 Speaker 2: there are developments in the Middle East, there's developments with Ukraine, 196 00:10:58,679 --> 00:11:01,160 Speaker 2: and there's also, of course the the trade war that 197 00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:05,760 Speaker 2: has been really started by President Trump and igniting over 198 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:09,360 Speaker 2: the past few weeks. Is that having an impact on 199 00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:13,480 Speaker 2: the African economy yet, based on your research. 200 00:11:13,600 --> 00:11:16,079 Speaker 1: That's a good question. I actually dedicated a bigger section 201 00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:19,680 Speaker 1: of my reaction to the budget to geopolitics than I 202 00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:23,760 Speaker 1: normally do, given that, yes, it is weighing on what's 203 00:11:23,760 --> 00:11:25,800 Speaker 1: happening in our part of the world. So for South 204 00:11:25,840 --> 00:11:29,200 Speaker 1: African particular, even before the budget, we've seen us AID 205 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:31,760 Speaker 1: cuts that's impacted not just South Africa, but the rest 206 00:11:31,800 --> 00:11:35,160 Speaker 1: of the continent. In terms of what the impact has been, 207 00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:38,760 Speaker 1: it's particularly the health sector that's been affected In a 208 00:11:38,800 --> 00:11:42,400 Speaker 1: country like South Africa. While negative, the impact will be 209 00:11:42,480 --> 00:11:45,959 Speaker 1: small and the gap that's been created can be easily 210 00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:49,040 Speaker 1: filled by the governments, at least on the health care side. 211 00:11:49,080 --> 00:11:52,559 Speaker 1: So we're not overly concerned for South Africa with regard. 212 00:11:52,320 --> 00:11:54,199 Speaker 5: To the aid cuts. The rest of the continent. 213 00:11:54,280 --> 00:11:57,199 Speaker 1: Yes, there are countries which will be hit hardest, particularly 214 00:11:57,200 --> 00:12:00,400 Speaker 1: the lower income countries such as Malawi, and in that 215 00:12:00,640 --> 00:12:03,720 Speaker 1: case they're going to have to scramble for resources from 216 00:12:03,760 --> 00:12:07,360 Speaker 1: other development partners in order to fill that gap. The 217 00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:09,800 Speaker 1: other area of concern, of course, is that it is 218 00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:13,599 Speaker 1: an important source of foreign exchange, particularly for smaller economies, 219 00:12:13,840 --> 00:12:17,000 Speaker 1: so in those countries you could see pressure on currencies. 220 00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:20,840 Speaker 1: The other concern is a GOA. A GOA is the 221 00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:25,400 Speaker 1: trade agreement that gives duty free access for select African 222 00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:30,199 Speaker 1: exports into the US market. In South Africa's case in particular, 223 00:12:30,240 --> 00:12:32,120 Speaker 1: I think that we could say at this point there's 224 00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:35,240 Speaker 1: a high risk that agreement will not be renewed in September, 225 00:12:35,280 --> 00:12:39,360 Speaker 1: given the escalation of tensions between the US and South Africa. 226 00:12:39,920 --> 00:12:42,920 Speaker 1: In that case, yes, it does mean Soufrik this case 227 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:46,080 Speaker 1: would lose that duty free access and it impacts in 228 00:12:46,120 --> 00:12:50,400 Speaker 1: particular two particular sectors. That is your vehicle or automotive 229 00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:54,800 Speaker 1: sector as well as the citrus sunwine industry that's based 230 00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:58,000 Speaker 1: in the cave. My third point is around the global 231 00:12:58,240 --> 00:13:02,920 Speaker 1: trade or tariff for Ultimately, what that does tend to 232 00:13:02,920 --> 00:13:05,480 Speaker 1: imply is that there's a slow down in global growth, 233 00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:08,240 Speaker 1: and if that is the case, then it means demand 234 00:13:08,360 --> 00:13:12,240 Speaker 1: for commodities or the exports that come out of Africa 235 00:13:12,600 --> 00:13:17,319 Speaker 1: will likely slow, which has implications for these countries' external 236 00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:19,560 Speaker 1: positions and also their currencies. 237 00:13:19,640 --> 00:13:21,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, and there's even talk in the US about a 238 00:13:21,800 --> 00:13:24,840 Speaker 2: potential recession. Now, I mean that wasn't even part of 239 00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:25,600 Speaker 2: a few months ago. 240 00:13:26,160 --> 00:13:26,319 Speaker 1: Von. 241 00:13:26,480 --> 00:13:29,679 Speaker 2: Let's just close out with your outlook for twenty twenty five. 242 00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:32,960 Speaker 2: I recognize that this is a very difficult question, considering 243 00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:35,840 Speaker 2: there is a lot of headwinds that a number of 244 00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:38,960 Speaker 2: these economies on the continent are facing. Do you see 245 00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:42,280 Speaker 2: some of the bigger economies South Africa, Ghana and Nigeria. 246 00:13:42,160 --> 00:13:44,480 Speaker 5: Though, starting to pick up in growth. 247 00:13:44,720 --> 00:13:48,280 Speaker 1: So in South Africa's case, yes, although growth disappointed last year, 248 00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:50,800 Speaker 1: kim in weaker than we'd anticipate it at zero point 249 00:13:50,840 --> 00:13:54,200 Speaker 1: six percent, would I expect to pick up? We're still optimistic. 250 00:13:54,240 --> 00:13:56,600 Speaker 1: We're our growth forecasts at one point nine percent. And 251 00:13:56,640 --> 00:14:00,200 Speaker 1: the reason for that upside is largely due to the 252 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:04,120 Speaker 1: return to more reliable electricity supply, so certainly in South 253 00:14:04,160 --> 00:14:07,280 Speaker 1: Africa's case, which is the biggest economy on the continent, 254 00:14:07,800 --> 00:14:11,440 Speaker 1: that should help a lift growth for the region. Nigeria, 255 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:13,960 Speaker 1: we expect growth to remain in the three percent region. 256 00:14:14,559 --> 00:14:17,480 Speaker 1: We are concerned about the lower oil price given what's 257 00:14:17,480 --> 00:14:20,600 Speaker 1: happening globally, so that may be a dampner. But other 258 00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:24,920 Speaker 1: than that, inflation is beginning to moderate that particular economy, 259 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:28,040 Speaker 1: which means montrepolicy is not as hawkish and that should 260 00:14:28,040 --> 00:14:31,480 Speaker 1: support some sort of recovery in that big economy as well. 261 00:14:31,800 --> 00:14:35,800 Speaker 2: That is Evone Mango Bloomberg Economics Africa Economists, and you 262 00:14:35,840 --> 00:14:38,160 Speaker 2: can find her research on the Bloomberg terminal. 263 00:14:38,200 --> 00:14:40,880 Speaker 5: Now Here are some of the. 264 00:14:40,800 --> 00:14:43,680 Speaker 2: Other stories we've been following across the region this week. 265 00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:47,640 Speaker 2: The Rwanda backed M twenty three rebel group has consolidated 266 00:14:47,720 --> 00:14:51,080 Speaker 2: control over the two largest cities in the Eastern Democratic 267 00:14:51,120 --> 00:14:54,640 Speaker 2: Republic of Congo, effectively setting up a proto state in 268 00:14:54,680 --> 00:14:59,280 Speaker 2: the mineral rich region and forcibly recruiting soldiers and civilians. 269 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:03,120 Speaker 2: I'm twenty three has added about four thousand Congolese soldiers 270 00:15:03,160 --> 00:15:06,560 Speaker 2: and fighters from local armed groups, with hundreds of civil 271 00:15:06,560 --> 00:15:10,680 Speaker 2: servants sent for indoctrination at remote bases, according to three 272 00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:15,440 Speaker 2: Western officials, three United Nations officials, and one humanitarian worker 273 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:21,320 Speaker 2: in the region and Xarro Resources appointed Ben Magara as 274 00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:24,480 Speaker 2: chief executive officer a month after the previous leader of 275 00:15:24,520 --> 00:15:28,480 Speaker 2: the South African coal Miner resigned. Nombasa Segua, who had 276 00:15:28,520 --> 00:15:32,520 Speaker 2: been on a precautionary suspension over claims related to workplace conduct, 277 00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:35,480 Speaker 2: resigned last month over the handling of a probe into 278 00:15:35,480 --> 00:15:39,520 Speaker 2: the allegations. You can follow these stories across Bloomberg, including 279 00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:41,720 Speaker 2: the Next African Newsletter. We'll put a link to that 280 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:48,800 Speaker 2: in the show notes. This program was produced by Adrian Bradley. 281 00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:51,480 Speaker 2: Don't forget to follow and review the show wherever you 282 00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:55,240 Speaker 2: usually get your podcasts. I'm Jennifer's Abasaja. Thanks as always 283 00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:55,760 Speaker 2: for listening.