WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: August 13, 2024 0:00:02.440 --> 0:00:06.800 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.640 --> 0:00:15.440 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.480 --> 0:00:18.680 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 0:00:18.720 --> 0:00:22.280 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:24.920 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:27.680 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:31.280 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:33.920 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.040 --> 0:00:35.880 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. 0:00:36.600 --> 0:00:39.160 Here's the lead ist, Donald Trump, taking aim at Vice 0:00:39.200 --> 0:00:42.400 President Kamala Harris in a wide ranging conversation on X 0:00:42.600 --> 0:00:46.440 with Elon Musk. The conversation coming after Musk endorsed Trump 0:00:46.520 --> 0:00:49.440 last month, with Trump's campaign looking to curb a wave 0:00:49.479 --> 0:00:53.319 of momentum for Harris, Henrietta Trees and Beta Partners joins us. Now, 0:00:53.479 --> 0:00:57.280 Henrietta a lot of talk through about this particular discussion. 0:00:57.520 --> 0:00:59.520 I just want to start with what was your main takeaway? 0:01:00.240 --> 0:01:02.760 The main takeaway was that this was a great opportunity 0:01:02.840 --> 0:01:06.920 for X to promote spaces. I mean, over a million 0:01:06.959 --> 0:01:09.399 listeners at some point, but it was sort of two 0:01:09.480 --> 0:01:12.480 two and a half hours of two guys. 0:01:12.200 --> 0:01:13.480 In a room agreeing with one another. 0:01:13.480 --> 0:01:15.280 I wouldn't call it an interview, but more of a 0:01:15.319 --> 0:01:18.760 conversation that touched on all the hits that you hear. 0:01:18.600 --> 0:01:21.840 From a Trump rally or other. 0:01:23.120 --> 0:01:26.360 Press press briefings that the president and former president puts on. 0:01:26.760 --> 0:01:29.200 There wasn't a whole lot of new information there. 0:01:29.959 --> 0:01:32.440 The main takeaway for me was that Elon Musk is 0:01:32.480 --> 0:01:36.000 interested in getting further involved in the federal government, being. 0:01:35.880 --> 0:01:38.080 Part of a federal sort of. 0:01:38.040 --> 0:01:41.319 Task force to take on government spending and efficiency, as 0:01:41.360 --> 0:01:41.880 he calls it. 0:01:42.440 --> 0:01:44.920 But that was really the newsiest part of the interview to. 0:01:44.880 --> 0:01:47.400 Me, Henrietta, what I took away is that Musk was 0:01:47.480 --> 0:01:50.800 advocating for two key things. One to stop this demonization 0:01:51.360 --> 0:01:53.760 which I think someone of you is coming from the 0:01:53.840 --> 0:01:58.440 far right when it comes to sustainability and evs, but 0:01:58.680 --> 0:02:01.960 also deregulation, and he brought it up a number of times. 0:02:02.320 --> 0:02:06.360 Do you think he was successful Musk in convincing Trump 0:02:06.360 --> 0:02:08.919 potentially some Trump acolytes on that call. 0:02:09.720 --> 0:02:12.560 I think that there has been a history of Musk 0:02:12.639 --> 0:02:17.440 being able to move present former President Trump, specifically electric vehicles, 0:02:17.919 --> 0:02:21.720 government subsidies of that industry, in particular when it comes 0:02:21.720 --> 0:02:24.160 to deregulation. I think that's already a big part of 0:02:24.200 --> 0:02:27.160 the platform. When I speak with Republican staff, that's always 0:02:27.200 --> 0:02:30.080 a refrain. So I think there's a primed audience for 0:02:30.160 --> 0:02:33.320 that conversation that could certainly be receptive to that. What's 0:02:33.360 --> 0:02:36.400 obviously interesting about that is that you simultaneously don't have 0:02:36.400 --> 0:02:39.560 the votes to repeal the federal subsidies for all. 0:02:39.480 --> 0:02:41.760 Of those industries in the clean energy tech space. 0:02:41.800 --> 0:02:45.280 The manufacturing tax credits eighteen House Republicans to send a 0:02:45.320 --> 0:02:48.000 letter to Speaker Johnson saying, hey, we need those subsidies 0:02:48.040 --> 0:02:48.760 to continue going. 0:02:48.760 --> 0:02:50.600 They promote job growth in our districts. 0:02:50.800 --> 0:02:54.600 They're promoting you know, research and development, they're countering China. 0:02:54.680 --> 0:02:57.200 So I think they're going to have a lot of 0:02:57.200 --> 0:03:00.320 trouble actually governing on that agenda next year if former 0:03:00.360 --> 0:03:01.560 President Trump is reelected. 0:03:01.639 --> 0:03:05.079 So last night was pretty light on substance, but potentially 0:03:05.080 --> 0:03:08.639 from the Harris camp, we'll actually get some policies on Thursday. 0:03:08.680 --> 0:03:11.720 We have not seen a policy proposal yet from the 0:03:11.800 --> 0:03:14.440 Harris Walls campaign, and they're going to be coming out 0:03:14.440 --> 0:03:15.960 with this economic plan. 0:03:16.000 --> 0:03:18.000 What are you expecting, Yeah. 0:03:17.880 --> 0:03:22.360 We're expecting the plans to be rolled out around Thursday. Obviously, 0:03:22.720 --> 0:03:25.680 there are not a lot of heavy hitting interviews happening 0:03:25.800 --> 0:03:28.359 right now, last night being an example, So I don't 0:03:28.400 --> 0:03:31.960 know that the Harris Waltz team needs to get two 0:03:32.480 --> 0:03:34.840 in the weeds. 0:03:33.600 --> 0:03:37.680 My advice to clients is to focus on the bill that. 0:03:37.600 --> 0:03:40.800 The Houseways and Means Committee put out in twenty twenty one, 0:03:41.080 --> 0:03:44.920 which receives widespread support from the Democratic Conference. 0:03:44.960 --> 0:03:46.920 It includes a top corporate tax rate. 0:03:46.920 --> 0:03:49.480 Of twenty six and a half percent, it's graduated in 0:03:50.080 --> 0:03:53.360 and I think, overarchingly, whatever Harris does put out on Thursday, 0:03:53.640 --> 0:03:55.960 take that as the high watermark when you go into 0:03:55.960 --> 0:03:58.760 Congress next year in the off chance it's not a 0:03:58.800 --> 0:04:01.360 Republican controlled set, and you're going to have to thread 0:04:01.760 --> 0:04:04.080 the needle very very closely to get two hundred eighteen 0:04:04.160 --> 0:04:06.920 votes on anything in the House and fifty one or 0:04:07.000 --> 0:04:09.640 sixty in the Senate. It's going to be much more 0:04:09.720 --> 0:04:13.200 lenient than whatever a Democratic proposal comes out looking like 0:04:13.280 --> 0:04:14.000 on Thursday. 0:04:14.160 --> 0:04:16.760 In the meantime, Henrietta, we're about a month away from 0:04:16.800 --> 0:04:19.920 early voting starting, and by all accounts, this is going 0:04:19.960 --> 0:04:22.919 to be a lot of early voting compared with historical references. 0:04:23.480 --> 0:04:26.320 Is Donald Trump more or less out of time in 0:04:26.360 --> 0:04:28.320 trying to define Kamala Harris? 0:04:28.680 --> 0:04:30.719 I have two things to say on that. Number One, 0:04:30.960 --> 0:04:32.880 the most important thing that happened last night is that 0:04:32.920 --> 0:04:36.320 Arizona put the abortion issue on the ballot. That is 0:04:36.360 --> 0:04:39.200 something that got doubled the number of signatures that they need. 0:04:39.240 --> 0:04:41.599 They didn't bring abortion up once. That's the whole state 0:04:41.640 --> 0:04:42.240 of Arizona. 0:04:42.320 --> 0:04:45.400 If Democrats hold on to Arizona and pick up Nevada 0:04:45.480 --> 0:04:48.760 and keep it in the blue camp, that seriously undermines 0:04:48.800 --> 0:04:51.080 Trump's electoral college strategy. 0:04:51.160 --> 0:04:52.560 So they should be focusing on that. 0:04:52.760 --> 0:04:54.920 And I think time has run out on Trump being 0:04:54.960 --> 0:04:57.400 able to define himself in a way that's favorable to 0:04:57.400 --> 0:05:01.720 the majority of Americans on abortion, certainly with gdbans position. Secondarily, 0:05:01.920 --> 0:05:05.800 you mentioned early voting, seventy two percent of early mail 0:05:05.839 --> 0:05:08.719 in ballot requests in Pennsylvania came from the Democratic Party. 0:05:09.160 --> 0:05:12.080 What the Republican Conference led by Trump and sort of 0:05:12.120 --> 0:05:15.280 the concerns over election fraud have really driven is a 0:05:15.279 --> 0:05:20.320 material tactical disadvantage in denigrating mail in balloting, which allows 0:05:20.360 --> 0:05:23.080 the campaign to bank voters, Get those people off your 0:05:23.160 --> 0:05:25.039 roles once they've already voted, and focus. 0:05:24.760 --> 0:05:26.640 On the people you need to turn out on election day. 0:05:26.880 --> 0:05:30.359 It's a tactical disadvantage that I think the Republicans have 0:05:30.480 --> 0:05:32.839 been screaming about for several years, but to no avail 0:05:32.839 --> 0:05:33.799 at this point, Henry. 0:05:34.000 --> 0:05:37.320 But it also brings this possibility that Republicans can continue 0:05:37.320 --> 0:05:39.400 the line that they did at the last election, that 0:05:39.480 --> 0:05:41.359 it was rigged, that there were issues if it was 0:05:41.440 --> 0:05:44.480 all mail in ballots, that they weren't genuine. How concerned 0:05:44.480 --> 0:05:47.520 are you about a peaceful handover, not a handover, a 0:05:47.560 --> 0:05:51.120 peaceful continuation of power, I suppose if Kamala Harris is 0:05:51.160 --> 0:05:51.719 the president. 0:05:52.720 --> 0:05:54.800 You know what's really interesting, and I heard this from 0:05:54.800 --> 0:05:57.880 Republican staff as long as a year ago. Keep in 0:05:57.920 --> 0:06:01.240 mind why there was a delay twenty twenty and why 0:06:01.279 --> 0:06:03.800 there was a delay in calling Nevada and upending the 0:06:03.839 --> 0:06:06.599 Arizona turnout or decision making process. 0:06:06.720 --> 0:06:08.839 It was because who was in office at the time. 0:06:09.080 --> 0:06:12.120 When Biden is in office, which he will become this November, 0:06:12.200 --> 0:06:14.440 it's going to be a much more orderly process that 0:06:14.520 --> 0:06:16.000 adheres to what's actually. 0:06:15.800 --> 0:06:16.560 Happening on the ground. 0:06:16.600 --> 0:06:18.640 No one's going to be calling the governor of Georgia 0:06:18.960 --> 0:06:21.040 saying find me the votes. So I think who is 0:06:21.080 --> 0:06:24.800 actually in office right now materially impacts whether this will 0:06:24.800 --> 0:06:25.800 be a smooth transition. 0:06:25.920 --> 0:06:26.960 I expect that it will be. 0:06:27.240 --> 0:06:28.920 You can claim that there was broad but it's going 0:06:28.960 --> 0:06:31.880 to be certified, hopefully within the next day or two 0:06:32.040 --> 0:06:33.240 after November fifth, and. 0:06:33.400 --> 0:06:35.040 HATI, given the fact that we haven't gotten a lot 0:06:35.040 --> 0:06:37.880 of policy proposals that people actually are taking seriously and 0:06:38.000 --> 0:06:41.559 wondering how much you actually do, think that the Federal 0:06:41.600 --> 0:06:44.880 Reserve is going to avoid cutting rates too much or 0:06:44.880 --> 0:06:46.480 too soon in order not. 0:06:46.480 --> 0:06:48.039 To seem like a political agent. 0:06:48.080 --> 0:06:51.080 And I say this because in the absence of real policies, 0:06:51.360 --> 0:06:54.240 we have heard a lot from the Republican camp, from 0:06:55.040 --> 0:06:57.919 jad Vans as well as Donald Trump about having a 0:06:57.960 --> 0:07:01.200 more political hand in the Fed, whereas the Harris camp 0:07:01.240 --> 0:07:01.880 is talking. 0:07:01.600 --> 0:07:04.840 About not so much. How does that color your view 0:07:04.920 --> 0:07:05.360 of it. 0:07:06.320 --> 0:07:08.280 Well, I think we have to focus on what's going 0:07:08.320 --> 0:07:11.360 to be happening next year. Extending the twenty seventeen tax 0:07:11.400 --> 0:07:12.920 cuts is going to cost four. 0:07:12.760 --> 0:07:14.120 Point six trillion dollars. 0:07:14.320 --> 0:07:16.320 I'm getting a lot of inbound questions from clients about 0:07:16.320 --> 0:07:18.280 whether there will be deficit reduction next year. 0:07:18.360 --> 0:07:20.840 There's no scenario where the deficit is renewed. Next year. 0:07:20.880 --> 0:07:23.640 There will be substantial federal spending. It'll happen as soon 0:07:23.680 --> 0:07:25.280 as September thirtieth of this year. 0:07:25.480 --> 0:07:26.000 I expect we. 0:07:26.040 --> 0:07:28.640 Will continue to get aid to Ukraine, albeit a smaller 0:07:28.640 --> 0:07:31.520 and lower amounts, along with Israel. There will continue to 0:07:31.560 --> 0:07:35.240 be spending on par with what we've had in the past, 0:07:35.240 --> 0:07:38.080 which is about one point seven trillion dollars just to 0:07:38.160 --> 0:07:40.560 keep functionality. And then next year we have to keep 0:07:40.600 --> 0:07:43.880 the tax bill extended, and I suspect that almost none 0:07:43.920 --> 0:07:47.240 of those tax cuts will expire, So the FED is 0:07:47.280 --> 0:07:49.640 going to have to contend with some of the political stuff, 0:07:49.680 --> 0:07:52.280 but more importantly with just the fisful outlays that are 0:07:52.280 --> 0:07:55.080 going to be coming through, whether Democrats or Republicans win 0:07:55.160 --> 0:07:55.600 next year. 0:07:56.120 --> 0:07:59.360 So I think engaging with the FED and trying. 0:07:59.160 --> 0:08:02.120 To meddle from a perspective as somebody who's there when 0:08:02.120 --> 0:08:04.440 we did Tarp and the Auto Baila and that's not. 0:08:04.400 --> 0:08:05.000 What I want to see. 0:08:05.040 --> 0:08:07.480 You need the autonomy of the FED, and I think 0:08:07.480 --> 0:08:08.800 that they'll fight you the Neil for that. 0:08:09.040 --> 0:08:11.640 Henrita Trees and Veta Partners. Thank you so much. 0:08:20.840 --> 0:08:23.640 Four season CEO Alejandra right now saying his company is 0:08:23.640 --> 0:08:27.200 seen in strongest year ever, writing this short term uncertainty 0:08:27.240 --> 0:08:32.080 given the current geopolitical macroeconomic pressures are impacting traveler sentiment, 0:08:32.320 --> 0:08:37.359 but the luxury sent segment is more resilient, Alejandro joins us. Now, Alejandro, 0:08:37.480 --> 0:08:39.560 thank you so much for being with us. Pleasure to 0:08:39.559 --> 0:08:42.040 have you here in studio. I want to start there. 0:08:42.520 --> 0:08:45.160 Is it true that you're not seeing any slowdown whatsoever 0:08:45.559 --> 0:08:47.000 in the luxury element? 0:08:47.600 --> 0:08:49.880 Good morning, Thanks for having me. It's a pleasure to 0:08:49.920 --> 0:08:52.000 be here. And I love the fact that we're talking 0:08:52.040 --> 0:08:55.440 about in luxury hospitality. Yes, I mean, we had a 0:08:55.480 --> 0:08:58.360 really strong first half of the year compared to last year, 0:08:58.720 --> 0:09:01.680 much better. When I look into the booking trends for 0:09:01.720 --> 0:09:04.320 the second half of the year, even going on into 0:09:04.400 --> 0:09:07.800 twenty twenty five, they look very strong as well. You know, 0:09:07.840 --> 0:09:11.000 I think there's two things that are happening there. First, 0:09:11.240 --> 0:09:13.880 and for most, is that the luxury guest or the 0:09:13.960 --> 0:09:18.640 luxury consumer continues to be very resilient. They continue to spend. 0:09:18.720 --> 0:09:23.720 You know, that desire for experiences to explore continues to 0:09:23.720 --> 0:09:26.000 be there. But also I would say that from a 0:09:26.000 --> 0:09:28.400 four seasons angle and from a four season's point of view, 0:09:28.559 --> 0:09:32.760 we do offer a very clear value proposition to our guest. 0:09:32.800 --> 0:09:35.320 I mean, we do have very proud to say that 0:09:35.320 --> 0:09:37.679 we have the very best hotels in the best locations 0:09:38.080 --> 0:09:40.640 and we provide the best service to our guest. And 0:09:40.720 --> 0:09:43.160 when you have that as the brand proposition, and that's 0:09:43.160 --> 0:09:45.680 what we do at four seasons, there's a demand for that. 0:09:46.559 --> 0:09:49.360 And by the way, this is not new of this year. 0:09:49.440 --> 0:09:52.199 We've been operating down for sixty years and has been 0:09:52.280 --> 0:09:54.319 the constant all throughout the period. 0:09:54.400 --> 0:09:55.240 So what has changed? 0:09:55.440 --> 0:09:57.839 And I'm wondering not just from the consumer who's able 0:09:57.840 --> 0:10:01.000 to spend, but also from the employer, Yes, and who 0:10:01.080 --> 0:10:03.160 you're able to recruit. For a long time, there is 0:10:03.200 --> 0:10:06.080 this earth of people willing to work in hospitality in 0:10:06.120 --> 0:10:10.800 the direct aftermath of the pandemic. Do you see it 0:10:10.840 --> 0:10:14.240 as being much easier now to hire people and sort 0:10:14.280 --> 0:10:17.960 of easier to also retain them without massive price increases 0:10:17.960 --> 0:10:18.800 wage increases. 0:10:19.000 --> 0:10:21.960 Yes. I mean, obviously for us, a key component of 0:10:22.040 --> 0:10:24.560 what we do is through our people, and we are 0:10:24.559 --> 0:10:28.280 a service company and the most important asset is the 0:10:28.320 --> 0:10:31.560 people that we have with us. So we place a 0:10:31.559 --> 0:10:33.640 lot of emphasis in making sure that we are the 0:10:33.720 --> 0:10:36.800 employer of choice in every single market that we operate. 0:10:37.480 --> 0:10:40.559 We do spend a lot of time training people, developing 0:10:40.600 --> 0:10:45.360 them for us. We do measure employee engagement twice per year. 0:10:45.960 --> 0:10:49.360 We are at the two percent across all industries in 0:10:49.440 --> 0:10:52.400 terms of employee engagement. So it's a topic that we 0:10:52.480 --> 0:10:54.520 spend a lot of time because we do believe that 0:10:54.559 --> 0:10:57.439 we need to have the best and most engage employees 0:10:57.440 --> 0:11:00.400 with us. We haven't had. I mean, obviously after the 0:11:00.400 --> 0:11:02.520 pandemic there was a little bit of pressure from the 0:11:02.679 --> 0:11:04.920 labor point of view. We don't see that anymore, but 0:11:04.920 --> 0:11:07.440 again it's because of the air force that we place 0:11:07.559 --> 0:11:10.160 in making sure that we are the employer of choice 0:11:10.160 --> 0:11:11.520 in the marketing where we operate. 0:11:11.920 --> 0:11:14.240 I want to know about more about your customer, but 0:11:14.320 --> 0:11:17.440 specifically like the ultra luxury and there. I know you 0:11:17.480 --> 0:11:20.360 have a private jet service something like one hundred and 0:11:20.400 --> 0:11:22.880 fifteen thousand dollars for charter a day. 0:11:23.600 --> 0:11:24.840 How much demand is there for that? 0:11:25.120 --> 0:11:27.280 Yes, you know, it's interesting And just to give you 0:11:27.280 --> 0:11:32.360 the context of this is obviously Four Seasons started as 0:11:32.400 --> 0:11:34.640 a hotel and a resource company, and we are now 0:11:34.679 --> 0:11:39.520 the leading luxury hospitality company and that's where our guests 0:11:39.640 --> 0:11:42.840 experience the brand. What we found over time is that 0:11:44.280 --> 0:11:47.839 because our second business is the residential brand, the residential 0:11:48.320 --> 0:11:52.080 so guests they stay with us, they experience the brand, 0:11:52.200 --> 0:11:55.160 and then they are willing to buy a residence with us. 0:11:55.520 --> 0:11:58.760 So that's sort of the journey that they start experiencing 0:11:58.800 --> 0:12:01.800 with four seasons. And the third piece is what you 0:12:01.880 --> 0:12:06.240 just said is the journey's experience based travel that we 0:12:06.280 --> 0:12:09.120 promote as a third line of business. So if you 0:12:09.160 --> 0:12:12.440 think about the whole analogy, guests they stay with us, 0:12:12.480 --> 0:12:15.120 they live with us, and they travel with us. They 0:12:15.200 --> 0:12:18.360 developed such a comfort with the brand and with the 0:12:18.400 --> 0:12:21.760 brand promise and the brand proposition that they're willing to 0:12:21.800 --> 0:12:25.640 spend that amount of money in traveling for twenty days 0:12:25.679 --> 0:12:30.160 through ten four seasons in Africa, in Europe and so forth. 0:12:30.200 --> 0:12:33.800 So for us, it's been more around creating this lucture 0:12:33.880 --> 0:12:38.880 ecosystem for four seasons that our guests are eager to travel. 0:12:39.280 --> 0:12:41.599 By the way, we have all the intineraries for this 0:12:41.720 --> 0:12:44.440 year sold out for the rest of the year, so 0:12:44.440 --> 0:12:47.320 it's a very successful product and it taps into that 0:12:47.440 --> 0:12:50.640 desire to experience, to explore that we find in our guests. 0:12:50.679 --> 0:12:52.160 You're saying we're too late for it, then. 0:12:52.240 --> 0:12:55.280 Yeah, twenty twenty five, we're opening the. 0:12:55.040 --> 0:12:57.600 Good To keep in mind, I mean just talking about 0:12:57.760 --> 0:12:59.320 the different mix of your businesses. 0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:00.959 Only one doing in this. 0:13:00.920 --> 0:13:03.360 Space, and it obviously is an exclusive space of those 0:13:03.360 --> 0:13:05.800 who can offer this, but you think of the online 0:13:05.800 --> 0:13:09.040 resources also trying to give also experiences to What does 0:13:09.160 --> 0:13:11.160 competition look like right now? 0:13:12.080 --> 0:13:15.120 Well, competition because of the attractiveness of the luxury space, 0:13:15.160 --> 0:13:17.400 there's a lot of competitors coming in. I think we 0:13:17.520 --> 0:13:20.400 have as a Four Seasons the advantage of the brand. 0:13:20.440 --> 0:13:24.160 I mean, we are the most We continuously measure brand preference, 0:13:24.200 --> 0:13:27.240 brand awareness in terms of our brand, and we continue 0:13:27.240 --> 0:13:30.160 to be the number one luxury hospitality brand, and I 0:13:30.160 --> 0:13:32.640 think that carries a lot of weight. But it's because 0:13:32.640 --> 0:13:34.320 at the end of the day, we're able to deliver 0:13:34.640 --> 0:13:37.960 that value proposition to our guest. I mean when it's 0:13:38.000 --> 0:13:41.000 interesting because I do interact with a lot of our 0:13:41.080 --> 0:13:44.000 guests and when I ask them what do they like 0:13:44.040 --> 0:13:46.000 about the Four Seasons, the first thing they tell me 0:13:46.040 --> 0:13:47.840 is that I know what to expect and I've been 0:13:47.880 --> 0:13:51.880 able as a guest to explore remote destinations. So for example, 0:13:52.240 --> 0:13:54.320 I've been able to go to Garabora. But because there's 0:13:54.320 --> 0:13:56.520 the Four Seasons, I feel comfortable because I know what 0:13:56.559 --> 0:14:00.559 to expect and to have that level of conceit extensy 0:14:00.760 --> 0:14:04.120 and that brand power is very, very unique. So I 0:14:04.120 --> 0:14:06.360 think we're uniquely a very well positioned. 0:14:05.920 --> 0:14:08.160 Where do you see the demand right now in terms 0:14:08.240 --> 0:14:11.240 of the hot spots top five people are traveling too. 0:14:11.360 --> 0:14:16.520 Yeah, you know, it's interesting because and I'm going to 0:14:16.559 --> 0:14:18.560 say something which is a little bit of contrariant. When 0:14:18.559 --> 0:14:22.880 I look into the history of Four Seasons over the 0:14:22.960 --> 0:14:27.040 last years, travel patterns haven't changed much. For example, fifty 0:14:27.080 --> 0:14:30.040 five percent of our revenues come from the Americas, the 0:14:30.040 --> 0:14:33.080 majority of in the US. More than fifty percent of 0:14:33.160 --> 0:14:36.600 our guests, they are from the US. And whether they 0:14:36.680 --> 0:14:39.440 travel to the US right now during the summertime, they 0:14:39.520 --> 0:14:42.440 travel to our South Florida collection, they go to Hawaii. 0:14:43.120 --> 0:14:46.119 Beyond the US, they go to Mexico and then Europe. 0:14:46.680 --> 0:14:49.400 The fact is that this has happened for many, many years. 0:14:49.720 --> 0:14:51.720 Americans are going to go to Europe probably once a 0:14:51.800 --> 0:14:54.880 year every summer. I mean, that's so, and we're seeing 0:14:54.880 --> 0:14:57.320 that again this summer, but it happened last year, prior year, 0:14:57.360 --> 0:15:01.480 prior year. But again America representing fifty five percent of 0:15:01.520 --> 0:15:04.800 revenues for US in the Europe and the Middle East 0:15:04.840 --> 0:15:07.920 represents twenty five percent of the revenues, and there the 0:15:08.000 --> 0:15:11.720 dynamics are similar. Europeans they mostly stay within Europe. They 0:15:11.800 --> 0:15:15.120 ventured into the Middle East or Africa. And then we 0:15:15.200 --> 0:15:19.640 have APAC, which is twenty percent of our business. Three 0:15:19.680 --> 0:15:23.000 percent is only China and that's mainly regional travel. 0:15:23.360 --> 0:15:26.200 Do you still see the Chinese consumers spending as much 0:15:26.360 --> 0:15:28.760 in luxury hotels the same way the US consumers. 0:15:28.960 --> 0:15:30.840 No, they have not come back. I mean when I 0:15:30.880 --> 0:15:34.480 look into what was spending prior to the pandemic is less. 0:15:34.840 --> 0:15:37.440 It's interesting because they are spending less in China, so 0:15:37.480 --> 0:15:39.800 we still don't have the same race that we used 0:15:39.800 --> 0:15:42.360 to have prior to the pandemic in China. But they're 0:15:42.640 --> 0:15:47.240 starting to spend more internationally, but internationally within the region 0:15:47.520 --> 0:15:51.120 meaning Japan for the most part, because of visa issues 0:15:51.120 --> 0:15:53.000 and many other things. They still have not come back 0:15:53.280 --> 0:15:55.880 to Europe or the US, which is where we saw 0:15:55.920 --> 0:15:57.080 them prior to the pandemic. 0:15:57.120 --> 0:15:59.760 There's real question here about how much and towards is 0:15:59.760 --> 0:16:01.880 slow of Apollo called us out for us this morning. 0:16:01.880 --> 0:16:04.480 He said, all you people in media, and I'm paraphrasing, 0:16:04.800 --> 0:16:06.840 just keep using everyone as an anecdote to try to 0:16:06.880 --> 0:16:09.480 paint a macro picture. Your company has been around for 0:16:09.520 --> 0:16:12.760 sixty years. How independent of the macrocycle is it? 0:16:12.840 --> 0:16:12.960 Right? 0:16:12.960 --> 0:16:14.760 I mean, we're talking about something that. 0:16:14.960 --> 0:16:18.720 Is a complete microcosmon to itself of people who have 0:16:18.960 --> 0:16:21.040 disposable wealth and are going to travel no matter what, 0:16:21.680 --> 0:16:26.120 versus a company that does have some sort of sensitivity 0:16:26.400 --> 0:16:29.600 to what's going on in the underlying consumer centimacy. 0:16:29.920 --> 0:16:31.720 I mean, I would be lying if I would say 0:16:31.720 --> 0:16:37.160 that we are immune to any microeconomic geopolitical impacts, because 0:16:37.200 --> 0:16:38.440 we are. I mean, at the end of the day, 0:16:38.800 --> 0:16:42.040 that uncertainty impacts travel or sentiment, and people don't travel 0:16:42.080 --> 0:16:45.640 because of that. But obviously we've been operating for sixty years. 0:16:45.680 --> 0:16:48.160 Have We've gone through these cycles and they go away, 0:16:48.320 --> 0:16:50.000 and at the end of the day, what we see 0:16:50.040 --> 0:16:52.800 in is year or year that the market continues to grow. 0:16:52.840 --> 0:16:55.200 I mean, trouble and torurism has been growing for many 0:16:55.280 --> 0:16:59.440 years now, that desire to experience, to explore, continues to 0:16:59.480 --> 0:17:01.840 be there. I think it's really interesting when you look 0:17:01.840 --> 0:17:07.000 into the luxury consumer that our composition of guests about 0:17:07.000 --> 0:17:10.840 twenty percent are boomers, forty five percent are Gen X, 0:17:11.400 --> 0:17:14.679 thirty five percent already are millennials, so that transfer of 0:17:14.760 --> 0:17:18.520 wealth is starting to happen, but we're not losing the boomers, 0:17:18.520 --> 0:17:21.600 so it means that the market is expanding. So always 0:17:21.800 --> 0:17:24.600 year and year, there's going to be more demand, more growth, 0:17:25.480 --> 0:17:27.240 and at the end of the day as well, we 0:17:27.560 --> 0:17:31.040 as as a hotel and restore company, need to be 0:17:31.160 --> 0:17:34.439 at the forefront in terms of creating amazing experiences so 0:17:34.480 --> 0:17:36.439 we can satisfy the demand. So I don't think at 0:17:36.440 --> 0:17:37.880 the end of the day that the demand just comes 0:17:37.880 --> 0:17:40.119 by itself. We need to have, like we do, a 0:17:40.200 --> 0:17:44.040 very special product, a very special service proposition to our guests, 0:17:44.040 --> 0:17:45.879 so at the end of the day, they are eager 0:17:45.920 --> 0:17:47.520 to come to a four seasons. 0:17:47.680 --> 0:17:49.040 So you're doing great with the baby class. 0:17:49.040 --> 0:17:51.959 I hear that you really crushing it, you know, particularly 0:17:52.280 --> 0:17:53.160 south of the US. 0:17:53.400 --> 0:17:54.000 Paid actor. 0:17:54.880 --> 0:17:58.040 No, it was, you know, but that's one. It's a 0:17:58.040 --> 0:18:00.760 tremendous learning experience because sometimes we so much more you're 0:18:00.880 --> 0:18:07.040 marketing that doesn't provide any outcomes, But then these special 0:18:07.359 --> 0:18:11.520 authentic moments are the ones that the consumers value the most. 0:18:11.560 --> 0:18:14.879 This was a complete viral moment, but it was completely authentic. 0:18:14.960 --> 0:18:17.320 We had nothing to do with it. In the end, 0:18:17.320 --> 0:18:21.160 we have more than three hundred million views through various 0:18:21.640 --> 0:18:24.479 digital platforms on the four Seasons Baby. Obably, we got 0:18:24.480 --> 0:18:29.439 a spike on on searches on four Seasons Orlando, so 0:18:29.520 --> 0:18:32.160 it was very good. But again it was very authentic, 0:18:32.240 --> 0:18:34.200 which ultimately is what. 0:18:34.160 --> 0:18:35.480 People like I love it. 0:18:35.480 --> 0:18:37.360 I wonder how many board meetings for about the four 0:18:37.400 --> 0:18:40.439 seasons Baby. All right, now four Seasons, CEO, thank you 0:18:40.480 --> 0:18:41.280 so much for being. 0:18:50.560 --> 0:18:52.159 Joining us. Now I'm so pleased to say it's now 0:18:52.200 --> 0:18:52.720 Leazei of. 0:18:52.840 --> 0:18:54.960 Deutsche Bank, and I want to start thank you so 0:18:55.080 --> 0:18:57.159 much for being here. Matt, I want to start with 0:18:57.200 --> 0:19:01.520 your impression of how predictive to Danny's this PPI print 0:19:01.600 --> 0:19:02.639 is for tomorrow's CPI. 0:19:02.960 --> 0:19:06.000 Yeah, I would agree with Mike that not very Usually 0:19:06.000 --> 0:19:08.240 what we look at are the few components that go 0:19:08.320 --> 0:19:11.120 into PC the form the inflation gage that the FED 0:19:11.160 --> 0:19:15.200 focus is on, so their portfolio management, healthcare, a few 0:19:15.200 --> 0:19:18.119 of the other airfares or used car prices are most important. 0:19:18.320 --> 0:19:21.159 I would downplay, you know, what we're seeing in the 0:19:21.160 --> 0:19:24.000 headline or the core just for that reason. I think, 0:19:24.320 --> 0:19:25.560 you know, we have to go through some of the details. 0:19:25.560 --> 0:19:26.880 There are some reasons to think that some of those 0:19:26.880 --> 0:19:30.520 components could have been stronger, so portfolio management. Inflation one 0:19:30.960 --> 0:19:32.720 tends to lag the market. So the strength we had 0:19:32.720 --> 0:19:35.560