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Speaker 1: All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros Podcast. It's June,

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Speaker 1: which means it's time to revisit the MLB futures markets.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Seth Wilcock, and I'm once again linking

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Speaker 1: up with two gentlemen who know their way around the

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Speaker 1: sand line, including one of the hosts of Leading Off Diamondbacks,

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Speaker 1: Faithful Chris Welsh, ak B Welsh. Good afternoon, Welsh. How

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Speaker 1: are you as the summertime months get going on the

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Speaker 1: baseball calendar?

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Speaker 2: Good afternoon, Seth. Great to be here. It's great. Is Arizona.

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Speaker 2: It's like super hot, It's insanity. But I got lots

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Speaker 2: of baseball and I got backfields to cover as well,

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Speaker 2: and we got some bets to get into, so let's

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Speaker 2: roll it absolutely.

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Speaker 1: Also joining us is a known Jacob degrombacker Canada's pride,

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Speaker 1: Joe o'rico.

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Speaker 3: Joe, great to see you today.

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Speaker 1: How are you feeling as we're roughly nine ten weeks

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Speaker 1: into the MLB season.

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Speaker 4: Fellas, I'm doing great, other than my pitching ratios and

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Speaker 4: a lot of my fantasy leagues because we've just seen

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Speaker 4: so many blow ups over the last few days. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: I just disgusting Dicky Fitz last night. We had a

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Speaker 4: few of them last week that were awful, Brandon Fod

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Speaker 4: in particular, Hazus Lozardo. So let's get away from Fantasy

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Speaker 4: and talk about some betting for the next little while.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, we'll certainly do that. Today's show looks like this.

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Speaker 1: We'll revisit the following betting markets, MVP side young season

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Speaker 1: win totals to make the playoffs, division winners, World Series winners,

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Speaker 1: and of course some long shot future surround out the program.

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Speaker 1: There's been a ton of turnover in the odds just

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Speaker 1: in the past month since we've all got together and

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Speaker 1: chatted about it. We'll certainly talk about it all as

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Speaker 1: we revisit it today. But before we get going, I

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Speaker 1: didn't want to shout out everyone who's joining us, either

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Speaker 1: on the Betting Pros YouTube channel or on the audio feed.

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Speaker 1: The easiest sway to support us is give this video

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Speaker 1: a thumbs up if you Hujulia this type of content.

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Speaker 1: Also subscribe if you're new, make sure you're checking out

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Speaker 1: the Fantasy Pros MLB YouTube channel, where well Joey Pen

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Speaker 1: the boys are busy, to say the least Welsh.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, to say the least prospect videos, waivers, trades. We

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Speaker 2: got it all, and we got daily fantasy baseball for you,

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Speaker 2: So come and hang out on the fantasy baseball side,

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Speaker 2: and we even sprinkling a little bit of betting every

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Speaker 2: single day as well.

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Speaker 5: There you go.

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Speaker 1: Let's go ahead, gentlemen, Let's jump in, starting with the

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Speaker 1: MVP odds, where it feels as though all the value

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Speaker 1: has maybe even bet out of this market. The favorites

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Speaker 1: include in the AL Aaron Judge now minus four thousand

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Speaker 1: he was mayas nine hundred when he last talked in May,

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Speaker 1: plus three ten in the preseason. And then the NL

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Speaker 1: side of things, Joe Hey Otani after what some would

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Speaker 1: consider a slow start, minus two fifty. Now he was

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Speaker 1: plus two to twenty right in May. Well, you added

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Speaker 1: that shoe a a Tani ticket last time we talked.

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Speaker 1: So are you standing pat with your current portfolio of him,

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Speaker 1: Bobby Witt and Corman Carrol or is there any more

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Speaker 1: value out there with some of these more favorites becoming

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Speaker 1: long shots all of a sudden.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think at the end of the

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Speaker 2: day you said it really the best. The value is

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Speaker 2: taken out of the market. The favorites are so dramatically

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Speaker 2: favorites that you if you're going to jump into this,

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Speaker 2: you're going to be betting on like one of two things.

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Speaker 2: You're gonna be betting on chaos of course, or you know,

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Speaker 2: you know, maybe a guy just goes on an insanely

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Speaker 2: crazy run, or you're gonna be betting on an injury,

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Speaker 2: because an injury is going to completely deteriorate this market.

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Speaker 2: But it's ridiculous. Minus money on Judge and Otani was

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Speaker 2: the bet. We talked about it on the last show

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Speaker 2: last month. I had Otani at a little over two

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Speaker 2: to one. That's now, you know, minus two hundred, So

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Speaker 2: that was the value. That's the play. If I were

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Speaker 2: jumping into the market, I'll tell you I do have

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Speaker 2: one bet, and unfortunately it's gonna kind of be in

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Speaker 2: the market of I'm banking on said player to get injured,

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Speaker 2: and it would be against Judge, who judges having a

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Speaker 2: ridiculous run here, but if you were to miss some time,

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Speaker 2: I got to try to play a market with Bobby

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Speaker 2: Wit Junior, and Bobby Wait Junior right now is thirty

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Speaker 2: to one. You can get him at thirty to one odds.

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Speaker 2: Every single player that is not judge in the AL

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Speaker 2: has absolutely ridiculous numbers. I think Joe's going to talk

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Speaker 2: about one as well. But one of the reasons I'm

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Speaker 2: doing it is, if you will take a look at

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Speaker 2: the AL for a second, Judge ridiculous five point one

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Speaker 2: war you know, numberers across the board of three ninety

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Speaker 2: one average. It's absolutely ridiculous, of course, But if you

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Speaker 2: look at the other AL guys, You've got Cal Rawley

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Speaker 2: who's got a three point eight war solid catcher Seattle.

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Speaker 2: I'm not going to buy that. Then you're gonna go

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Speaker 2: and jump over to Jeremy Payne. Yet Jeremy Painey is

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Speaker 2: ridiculous on the war marker. He's got a what is

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Speaker 2: a two point nine? He would be third in the AL,

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Speaker 2: But fourth in the AL is Bobby Witt Junior. Bobby

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Speaker 2: Witt Junior, even though he's had kind of a slowed

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Speaker 2: down season so far, he's still got his average up.

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Speaker 2: He's got his average of two eighty three, six homers,

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Speaker 2: he's pacing out to have the most stolen bases, he's

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Speaker 2: had really low strikeout rate, and he's got a two

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Speaker 2: point eight war. So if he's to pick it up,

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Speaker 2: you know, they just brought up Jack cagleone and he's

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Speaker 2: to go on a run. It's not inconceivable he could

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Speaker 2: get back up into that twenty five to thirty home

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Speaker 2: run marker and he might push fifty. So if he

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Speaker 2: had a thirty to fifty season at a Bobby Wit

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Speaker 2: Junior with a three hundred average, and let's say, Judge,

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Speaker 2: we is time that thirty to one is going to shrink.

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Speaker 2: You could potentially buy out of it, or you're going

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Speaker 2: to have just clear on thirty to one odds. But

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Speaker 2: I just want to make it clear. This is if

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Speaker 2: I'm kind of having fun and I'm hoping the betting

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Speaker 2: worlds play on my side. The bets are Judge and

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Speaker 2: Otani and they're not bettable right now. So this is

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Speaker 2: where my pivot would be in this market would be

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Speaker 2: specifically Bobby Witt Junior at those type of odds or

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Speaker 2: some interesting NL ones that are out there, obviously if

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Speaker 2: something were to happen with Otani. But Bobby Wit kind

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Speaker 2: of stands out to me in the al and I know,

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Speaker 2: I think I had this at one point at four

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Speaker 2: and a half to one, so now I can get

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Speaker 2: thirty to one kind of double down on that hoping

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Speaker 2: that maybe Judge misses a little bit of time.

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Speaker 1: Joe, as Welsh kind of allude to there. We did

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Speaker 1: have the breaking news in the MLB this week that

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Speaker 1: Jack Caglion, one of the top prospects in the game,

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Speaker 1: is being promoted.

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Speaker 3: He's coming up to the majors.

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Speaker 1: Do you think that helps Bobby Witt Junior from a

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Speaker 1: statistical standpoint, and do you think that maybe helps his

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Speaker 1: case for a potential al MVP run if something does

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Speaker 1: happen to Judge down the stretch.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I think it absolutely will help.

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Speaker 4: The Royals have been and we talked about it yesterday

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Speaker 4: Welsh and I on the Discord Show that the Royals

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Speaker 4: have been one of the worst offenses in all of

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Speaker 4: baseball this season, really only better than the White Sox,

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Speaker 4: the Pirates and the Rockies.

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Speaker 5: So adding an impact bat.

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Speaker 4: Who can be a twenty twenty five home run guy

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Speaker 4: even over four months, who's going to be hitting probably

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Speaker 4: right behind him or one or two spots behind him,

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Speaker 4: could do numbers in terms of Bobby Wits run.

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Speaker 5: Total for the season.

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Speaker 4: And and I like Welsh's bet here the thing with

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Speaker 4: the MVP markets that you guys have alluded to is

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Speaker 4: that there's no real value in betting the favorites at all.

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Speaker 4: I've seen judges like minus five thousand, and you really

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Speaker 4: have to just kind of bank on an injury. Otani's

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Speaker 4: like minus two fifty three hundred. It's not a horrible line,

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Speaker 4: but I think the value is looking for some of

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Speaker 4: those long shots and kind of banking on an injury.

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Speaker 4: And that's where I'm headed with Jose Ramirez, because it's

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Speaker 4: kind of the same thing with Bobby wid Junior. You

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Speaker 4: need judge to miss time, but if he does miss time,

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Speaker 4: you got a guy in Ramirez who has been a

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Speaker 4: top five MVP finisher four times in his career. He's

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Speaker 4: having a brilliant season a three twenty seven batting average,

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Speaker 4: he has a one sixty one WRC, plus eleven homers

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Speaker 4: fourteen steals. He's on pace to go about thirty thirty

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Speaker 4: five in the Guardians. Even though they're probably overperforming just

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Speaker 4: based on run differential and things like that, they're a

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Speaker 4: good team. To this point of the season. They're six

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Speaker 4: games over five hundred, and there's a chance they could

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Speaker 4: get into the playoffs, and that could be part of

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Speaker 4: the narrative of if he makes the playoffs versus with

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Speaker 4: not making it with the Royals in a bit of

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Speaker 4: a weaker team. Maybe it is Jose Ramirez. I think

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Speaker 4: that you are just kind of hoping for an injury

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Speaker 4: with either of these plays. But Jose Ramirez at plus

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Speaker 4: eight thousand does seem like a pretty decent bet to

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Speaker 4: make because we know Aaron Judge. You know, he was

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Speaker 4: kind of seen as an injury prone guy. He's been

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Speaker 4: healthy the last couple seasons. But all it would really

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Speaker 4: take is maybe one month. I mean, the way the

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Speaker 4: Judge has been playing, maybe he would need to miss

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Speaker 4: more than a month. But if there is an injury,

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Speaker 4: I think it would probably come down to one of

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Speaker 4: Bobby Witt or Jose Ramirez.

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Speaker 2: Any thoughts on Ramirez here? Welsh, Yeah, I like this bet.

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Speaker 2: I think the odds are absolutely ridiculous. He continues to perform.

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Speaker 2: The Guardians team is actually pretty underrated as far as

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Speaker 2: what they could still do the rest of the season.

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Speaker 2: So I think the Jose Ramirez bet again, if you're

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Speaker 2: playing long shot market, it makes a lot of sense.

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Speaker 2: It's tough because we picked both al players that are

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Speaker 2: going to kind of be battling each other, assuming something

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Speaker 2: we're to happen to judge, which you obviously don't want

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Speaker 2: to do. But I think Ramirez is going to be

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Speaker 2: up near the top of it. There's still so many

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Speaker 2: that's the weird part. There's still so much season to go.

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Speaker 2: We've got a third of the season kind of out here.

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Speaker 2: We have so much more to play, so many more

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Speaker 2: things can happen, Yet we have such like stuck odds,

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Speaker 2: stuck odds on the favorites that there is value of

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Speaker 2: something we're to play. I think Ramirez is as good

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Speaker 2: as a bet better odds than Bobby Witt just you know,

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Speaker 2: Bobby woitd higher up on the market on the war

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Speaker 2: underperforming on an offense, has been really stuck. I think

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Speaker 2: both of these make sense.

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Speaker 1: Let's go ahead, Let's move the Cy Young odds, where

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Speaker 1: the favorites have certainly separated themselves but are still betable.

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Speaker 1: In the al al Cy Young winner Jarique Scuball of

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Speaker 1: the Tigers, he's now minus one fifty. He was plus

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Speaker 1: two thirty when he talked in May and plus three

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Speaker 1: fifty back in spring training. On the NL side of things,

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Speaker 1: Paul Skeens now plus one forty. He was plus two

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Speaker 1: seventy back in May three to one in the preseason,

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Speaker 1: and then Yoshi Nobu Yamamoto is now plus three fifty.

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Speaker 1: He had a great May he was plus two seventy

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Speaker 1: and has certainly slipped up a little bit here. Wel

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Speaker 1: So him and Zach Wheeler kind of the only the

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Speaker 1: guys in this mix now plus eight fifty. Which I

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Speaker 1: know you have an eleven to one ticket on Wheeler

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Speaker 1: that you placed in our last episode.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and we're gonna be a little this will be

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Speaker 2: a little bit boring because Rico and I are going

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Speaker 2: to completely agree on this market. We didn't in the

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Speaker 2: last time we did this. I gave you eleven to

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Speaker 2: one on Zach Wheeler. That's that's you know, getting close

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Speaker 2: to cutting in half. But I still think that's a

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Speaker 2: phenomenal play. Whether it's seven and a half or eight

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Speaker 2: and a half to one on Zach Wheelers, Okay, it

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Speaker 2: makes a ton of sense. And Garrett Crochet absolutely jumps

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Speaker 2: out to me that if I had to pick one

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Speaker 2: right now, I'm really into the Garrett Crochet one, even

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Speaker 2: though I think the Wheeler one is completely live. I

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Speaker 2: had Crochet earlier, I had both of these guys on

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Speaker 2: my cards earlier it was four and a half. It's

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Speaker 2: now seven and a half to one. Yet Garrett Crochet

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Speaker 2: has jumped up in the strikeout market. I believe he's

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Speaker 2: actually tied. He's got a few more innings than a

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Speaker 2: few of the guys as we're recording this, but he's

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Speaker 2: tied on the league lead of strikeouts. And if you

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Speaker 2: do remember I had him leading in strikeouts at like

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Speaker 2: eleven to one or twelve to one. That was one

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Speaker 2: of my favorite bets. But what's also on top of

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Speaker 2: it is he's got a one nine to eight era.

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Speaker 2: Scooble is really tough here. It's a little on the

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Speaker 2: minus money side. But Crochet and Scooble, I think are

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Speaker 2: the two front runners here. You've got ra in favorite

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Speaker 2: of Crochet, You've got both in the same win market.

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Speaker 2: K's are pretty close, walks are in favor of Scooble.

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Speaker 2: But Garrett Crochet has taken another step. If you believe

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Speaker 2: that the Boston Red Sox can right this wrong ship

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Speaker 2: right now, Garrett Crochet is going to be the captain

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Speaker 2: of it. And that SUBI those crazy big strikeouts, how

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Speaker 2: he is locked in. He can lead the league. He's

250
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Speaker 2: an easy cy Young candidate here, and you're getting seven

251
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Speaker 2: and a half to one, especially if Boston does take

252
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Speaker 2: this step into the second half, which they're not doing

253
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Speaker 2: anything to show us it at this right now, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: right now, I'm kind of a guess sticking to where

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Speaker 2: I was last week. It's Wheeler, it's Garrett Crochet, and

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Speaker 2: I'm not wanting to take it because Joe had the

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Speaker 2: exact same thing. So Joe, we're in complete agreement in

258
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Speaker 2: this mark.

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Speaker 4: You and I usually tend to disagree on a few

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Speaker 4: things Welsh, but we are lock step right here. Zach

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Speaker 4: Wheeler is one of those guys where you can easily

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Speaker 4: spin a narrative of he has been so good for

263
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Speaker 4: so long and he is kind of deserving of a

264
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Speaker 4: cy Young Award. At this stage of his career, There's

265
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Speaker 4: probably not too many opportunities left for him.

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Speaker 5: Yeah. Momoto is also.

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Speaker 4: I think a pretty solid bet at three to one,

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Speaker 4: depending on your book.

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Speaker 5: Skeens.

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Speaker 4: I think the thing that will hold Schiens back really

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Speaker 4: is just the team context and the fact that he

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Speaker 4: might win seven games this season and there are still

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Speaker 4: voters who will look.

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Speaker 5: At the win total.

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Speaker 4: I think we're kind of moving away from that, but

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Speaker 4: I think there are still gonna be some people where

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Speaker 4: if he finishes the season with like a seven to

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Speaker 4: nine record, even if he has a two ERA, they're

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Speaker 4: gonna have a hard time voting for him. So I

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Speaker 4: think Wheeler, considering the good team context, considering the fact

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Speaker 4: that he's off to a really great start this year,

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Speaker 4: it does seem like this is kind of his year.

283
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Speaker 4: And in the American League, Garrett Crochet, he's leading the

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Speaker 4: American League in I think he's leading the major leagues

285
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Speaker 4: actually in innings pitched. He's leading in strikeouts or tied

286
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Speaker 4: with Mackenzie Guar. He has a sub too ERA, he

287
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Speaker 4: has five wins, and I think the Red Sox are

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Speaker 4: gonna probably going to need to get a little bit

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Speaker 4: more active here if they don't want to have maybe

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Speaker 4: not a lost season, but a year that will be

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Speaker 4: very disappointing. So I think they're gonna make a couple

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Speaker 4: of moves, whether it's moving out Jaron Duran, bringing in

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Speaker 4: more pitching, calling up Roman Anthony, They're still some moves

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Speaker 4: to make, and I think that Garrett Crochet can pretty

295
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Speaker 4: easily get into double digits for wins, and if he

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Speaker 4: keeps that ERA anywhere close to one nine to eight,

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Speaker 4: then I think that this is gonna be very hard

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Speaker 4: to take away from him. The problem, being similarly to

299
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Speaker 4: the MVP markets, is that Terik Skuble like a heavy

300
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Speaker 4: heavy favorite right now, and if he keeps doing what

301
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Speaker 4: he's been doing, it's gonna be hard to not give

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Speaker 4: him the award for a second consecutive season. But I

303
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Speaker 4: think the value right now is on Garrett Crochet in

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Speaker 4: the American League.

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Speaker 1: Do voters in the MLB awards do they get fatigue

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Speaker 1: as much as NFL? You think Welsh because it feels

307
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Speaker 1: like if you win an NFL MVP, it's so hard

308
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Speaker 1: to go back to back because the voters are just

309
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Speaker 1: tired of and they want something fresh. We saw it

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Speaker 1: this past season with Josh Allen winning the award when

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Speaker 1: many thought that it should have been Lamar Jackson's. Does

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Speaker 1: MLB do the voters have a little more pride and

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Speaker 1: don't care as much about, you know, who's won.

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Speaker 2: This award before. That's an interesting question. I think, yeah,

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Speaker 2: maybe there's part of that. In baseball, you'll definitely sometimes

316
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Speaker 2: see kind of the makeup where it's like next year

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Speaker 2: you're going to get extra credit for something a player

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Speaker 2: maybe should have gotten this year. Okay, there's also just

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Speaker 2: so many different personalities that are put into it. I

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Speaker 2: think team winning context is going to be important, so

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Speaker 2: like right now, even more so if you look at like,

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Speaker 2: let's just say the cross cancel each other, Turry Scougble

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Speaker 2: and Garrett Crochet, you know, whether it's strikeouts or walks,

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Speaker 2: just the city completely cross cancel. Well, what's the narrative

325
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Speaker 2: right now? Bosso Red Sox are fourth in the Al

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Speaker 2: East and the Tigers are winning their division. That's enough

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Speaker 2: to give that extra push of why school will have it.

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Speaker 2: So it's gonna be really imperative to watch what happens

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Speaker 2: over the next couple of months to the Tiger's fade

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Speaker 2: to the Red Sox kind of boost back up that

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Speaker 2: will play a really really important role I think in

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Speaker 2: voters in which side they're going to go onto.

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Speaker 1: A lot of Garrett Crochet love on the pod today,

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Speaker 1: and Welsh I have to say, like this feels a

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Speaker 1: little bit at least like out of the narrative for

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Speaker 1: you because apparently, like everyone thinks you're a big Garrett

337
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Speaker 1: Crochet hater. Yet yet you've been on this train since

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Speaker 1: the beginning of preseason on this show at least.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a false narrative. If anything, A Rico can

340
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Speaker 2: attest to this, I've been one of the biggest Garrett

341
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Speaker 2: Crochet pushers that has been on this network or probably

342
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Speaker 2: out there. I ranked him as my third overall starting

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Speaker 2: pitcher coming into this year in Fantasy. What came from

344
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Speaker 2: it was there's this really early on, like a couple

345
00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:04,040
Speaker 2: starts that Garrett Crochet had where things looked weird. He

346
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Speaker 2: didn't have his stuff, he was going heavy cutter, You're

347
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Speaker 2: getting some walks in there. He wasn't going deep into games,

348
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Speaker 2: and there's just something concerning, and I brought that up

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Speaker 2: and that turned into this narrative. But no, no, no, okay,

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Speaker 2: got I got Garrett Crochet and our Fantasy pros leagues.

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Speaker 2: I had him one of the highest, maybe not his highest, mayor,

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Speaker 2: but one of the highest starting pitchers in Fantasy. And

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Speaker 2: I've got my own Garrett Crochet tickets going. So let's go, No, Sir.

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Speaker 1: Cliffitt, send it to Mike Mayer, the editor in chief

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Speaker 1: here before we keep it moving, guys, I did want

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Speaker 1: to remind everyone to please download the Betging pros app

357
00:15:38,360 --> 00:15:41,320
Speaker 1: and consider using the Betting Pros betting Systems tool that

358
00:15:41,400 --> 00:15:44,280
Speaker 1: is designed to help you find winning strategies and make

359
00:15:44,400 --> 00:15:48,880
Speaker 1: smarter wagers. Customize your betting systems by sport, bet type

360
00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:52,280
Speaker 1: and timeframe to find the best opportunities using real time

361
00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:56,240
Speaker 1: data and expert analysis, track the performance of different betting

362
00:15:56,280 --> 00:15:59,560
Speaker 1: systems over time, and optimize your bets to increase your

363
00:15:59,640 --> 00:16:02,840
Speaker 1: chances of success. Download the bank Pros app today or

364
00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:06,040
Speaker 1: go to bettingpros dot com slash systems to elevate your

365
00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:10,200
Speaker 1: betting strategy and then start making SPARTA bets today. Let's

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Speaker 1: go ahead and move to the season win totals or

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Speaker 1: to make the playoffs market where Welsh you already have

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Speaker 1: a ticket on both Boston and Sincey to make the postseason.

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Speaker 1: Do you feel that those tickets are very much still

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Speaker 1: alive and is there anything else that you're adding out there?

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Speaker 2: The reds ticket is dead. That one doesn't feel okay?

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Speaker 2: That what the one feels?

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Speaker 5: Poor dead?

374
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Speaker 2: Yeah, poor one out. So I'm gonna double down on

375
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Speaker 2: something and it is not going to feel popular. I

376
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Speaker 2: had the Red Sox to make the playoffs at just

377
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Speaker 2: a little essentially just one for one. It was like

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Speaker 2: plus one oh five. They are nine games back in

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Speaker 2: the division. But I am going to double down on

380
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Speaker 2: the Red Sox. Oh am going to put them back

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Speaker 2: to making the playoffs. And you're getting almost three to

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Speaker 2: one at plus two eighty five. And I know it

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Speaker 2: seems crazy because they're a messy team right now. Boston

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Speaker 2: is three and seven in their life ten. As I mentioned,

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Speaker 2: they're like nine games back in their own division. There's

386
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Speaker 2: trade talk, but I don't think the trade talk has

387
00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:11,880
Speaker 2: to be about them dismantling the team now if they're

388
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Speaker 2: to go to the levels of like will you're a

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Speaker 2: bray you and dah da da and Okay, maybe that's different.

390
00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:18,760
Speaker 2: But there's talk of Jared Durant. The Jared duran trade

391
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Speaker 2: could be something that actually could be a net positive

392
00:17:22,080 --> 00:17:25,040
Speaker 2: if they were to get some assets that they're a

393
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Speaker 2: little division in right now, like maybe starting pitching or bullpen,

394
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Speaker 2: and then you bring up a guy like Roman Anthony.

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Speaker 2: I'm still a little bit I'm not a Red Sox fan,

396
00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:34,600
Speaker 2: but I'm still a little bit of a homer in

397
00:17:34,600 --> 00:17:37,199
Speaker 2: that market. I guess because Bregman can come back, I

398
00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:38,800
Speaker 2: think they can bounce back. They have one of the

399
00:17:38,800 --> 00:17:43,639
Speaker 2: best pitchers in baseball, and they are technically only four

400
00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:46,000
Speaker 2: and a half games out of the wild card right now,

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Speaker 2: regardless of being fourth in the AL East and being

402
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Speaker 2: nine games back divisionally, they are only four and a

403
00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:55,360
Speaker 2: half games back. That is very, very winnable and doable

404
00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:57,399
Speaker 2: if they make the right moves, and I think they

405
00:17:57,440 --> 00:18:00,240
Speaker 2: have some core pieces that can push them over where.

406
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Speaker 2: So I'm gonna double down on this because I still

407
00:18:03,040 --> 00:18:06,119
Speaker 2: think they're a massively talented team. I think they're gonna

408
00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:08,960
Speaker 2: make moves that are not in a selling way, and

409
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Speaker 2: I'm going to take a three to one ticket on

410
00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:13,200
Speaker 2: the Red Sox is still sneaking on that wild car

411
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Speaker 2: to make the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: I think it's an interesting play because so many times

413
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Speaker 1: as better as we look to hedge ourselves and bet

414
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Speaker 1: against ourselves. But Welsh is just saying, Hey, I'm going

415
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Speaker 1: to go right back to the Red Sox and stay packed,

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Speaker 1: and if they do end up making the playoffs, you're

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Speaker 1: cashing two tickets and one at nearly a three to

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Speaker 1: one price.

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Speaker 5: So I like that a lot.

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Speaker 1: Joe, any thoughts here on the Red Sox who the

421
00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:36,320
Speaker 1: vibes weren't great to start out the season yet all

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Speaker 1: the rafeel Devers drama and just kind of a lot

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Speaker 1: of question marks up in the air. But if they

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Speaker 1: continue to bring up some of these, you know, promising prospects,

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Speaker 1: maybe it's a summer to remember up there and then Boston.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that this team needs to make a

427
00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:52,520
Speaker 4: move because they can't just leave Rome and Anthony sitting

428
00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:55,399
Speaker 4: down in the minors forever. They need to do something

429
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Speaker 4: with the outfield, and it's probably going to be durant.

430
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Speaker 4: I know you guys mentioned on leading off that Joe

431
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Speaker 4: has and some Willyard or Bray you rumors there's got

432
00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:05,440
Speaker 4: I saw. There's got to be some kind of move

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Speaker 4: that this team makes. So I don't think this is

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Speaker 4: the team that we're gonna see a month from now,

435
00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:12,000
Speaker 4: but to get but to get them around three to one,

436
00:19:12,040 --> 00:19:14,240
Speaker 4: I think is a worthy bet. I doubt they're gonna

437
00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:17,160
Speaker 4: win the division. I can't really see them taking over

438
00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:20,080
Speaker 4: the Yankees. They're just too strong, too far ahead. But

439
00:19:20,119 --> 00:19:22,040
Speaker 4: I could see them getting into the wild card, and

440
00:19:22,040 --> 00:19:23,160
Speaker 4: that I think is a decent bet.

441
00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:26,680
Speaker 1: That welshmid Okay, Joe sending it over to you here,

442
00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:29,080
Speaker 1: you're currently in your portfolio. You have the twins to

443
00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:31,480
Speaker 1: make the playoffs that even money, and you also were

444
00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:34,119
Speaker 1: fading one of the hottest teams in baseball, the Tigers

445
00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:37,400
Speaker 1: under ninety one and a half wins at minus one ten.

446
00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:39,080
Speaker 3: Are you gonna stick.

447
00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:41,040
Speaker 1: With that train of fading some hot teams or are

448
00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:42,520
Speaker 1: you gonna maybe back somebody here?

449
00:19:42,640 --> 00:19:45,720
Speaker 5: Yeah, the Tigers one isn't looking great. I'll be honest.

450
00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:47,679
Speaker 4: I really thought that they were gonna cool off, and

451
00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:50,080
Speaker 4: they have just been. I think they actually have the

452
00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:53,359
Speaker 4: best record in the whole major leagues right now forty

453
00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:54,160
Speaker 4: twenty one.

454
00:19:55,520 --> 00:19:56,719
Speaker 5: I might be off on that one.

455
00:19:56,760 --> 00:19:58,560
Speaker 4: I think ninety one will still be kind of close,

456
00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:01,200
Speaker 4: but they might sneak over there. The Twins, bet, I

457
00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:03,280
Speaker 4: feel pretty good about. As soon as we did that

458
00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:05,560
Speaker 4: show last month, they went on like a thirteen game

459
00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:07,680
Speaker 4: win streak, So I felt pretty good about that one.

460
00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:09,600
Speaker 4: I think that they're probably a bit of a tough

461
00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:11,520
Speaker 4: team to win the division in the similar vein of

462
00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:13,159
Speaker 4: the Red Sox and the Yankees that it's just a

463
00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:15,200
Speaker 4: huge lead for the Tigers, But I think the Twins

464
00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:16,800
Speaker 4: can still get into the wild Card. But the one

465
00:20:16,800 --> 00:20:19,680
Speaker 4: that I'm focusing in on today is the Cubbies under

466
00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:21,840
Speaker 4: ninety five and a half wins. It feels like this

467
00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:25,760
Speaker 4: number has gotten a little out of hand. They're a

468
00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:28,280
Speaker 4: great team, no question. Thirty seven and twenty two. I

469
00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:30,359
Speaker 4: think they're going to pretty handily win that division. But

470
00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:34,280
Speaker 4: that's a very, very high win total. Looking back last season,

471
00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:36,600
Speaker 4: there was only one team that would have went over

472
00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:39,520
Speaker 4: this number, and that's the Dodgers, who had ninety eight wins.

473
00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:42,760
Speaker 4: Do I think that this Cubs team, as currently constructed,

474
00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:45,040
Speaker 4: is going to get to ninety six wins. If it

475
00:20:45,119 --> 00:20:47,439
Speaker 4: wasn't for the injuries to the pitchers, then I probably

476
00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:49,639
Speaker 4: would be more on board with this, But Justin Steele

477
00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:52,679
Speaker 4: Gone Imanaga is still a little bit away, and I

478
00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:55,000
Speaker 4: just don't think that they are able to maintain what

479
00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:58,879
Speaker 4: they're doing with Boyd ray Brown, Ty one and Kate Horton,

480
00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:01,280
Speaker 4: especially with the revolver door they've had in the bullpen.

481
00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:03,280
Speaker 4: I think their lineup is great, but I think this

482
00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:05,320
Speaker 4: pitching is going to end up stopping them at some point.

483
00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:07,360
Speaker 4: I think ninety six wins is just a bit too

484
00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:08,440
Speaker 4: high of a number to reach.

485
00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:11,400
Speaker 1: What do you think about this Welsh because they certainly

486
00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:15,000
Speaker 1: have some easier opponents they're facing within their own division,

487
00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:17,160
Speaker 1: We've talked about the Pirates, We've talked about your dead

488
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:20,840
Speaker 1: Red's bet. So not the most you know, competitive division

489
00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:23,760
Speaker 1: here in the Central it seems like. But at the

490
00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:26,760
Speaker 1: same time they've been absolutely tearing it up that the

491
00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:27,760
Speaker 1: Cubs have the season.

492
00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:31,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I like this one, you know, not

493
00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:34,480
Speaker 2: even focusing divisionally, but just internally on the team. You know,

494
00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:36,680
Speaker 2: they've been turning out some rookies. They have had an

495
00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:39,520
Speaker 2: otherworldly performance from PCA that's going to probably have to

496
00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:42,280
Speaker 2: continue for them to be on that. They have had

497
00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:45,479
Speaker 2: a lot of issues in their in their starting rotation

498
00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:47,800
Speaker 2: that they've gone to rookies and guys like Colin Ray.

499
00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:51,040
Speaker 2: You have no steal if I do believe they have

500
00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:53,560
Speaker 2: the assets though to go and make a move that

501
00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:55,520
Speaker 2: could push this. But I think Joe, I think he

502
00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:57,480
Speaker 2: laid it out really well like this. This is a

503
00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:01,240
Speaker 2: really really aggressive number, and I don't think I would

504
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:03,720
Speaker 2: want to make that bet with the current roster construction.

505
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:05,879
Speaker 2: I do think they could make some moves, but I

506
00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:07,320
Speaker 2: very much do like this one.

507
00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:10,840
Speaker 1: Just a quick reminder that Fantasy Pros is now live

508
00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:13,960
Speaker 1: on Twitch. You can join Joe Pisapia and the Welsh

509
00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:17,880
Speaker 1: every weekday at twelve pm Eastern Time for leading off

510
00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:21,760
Speaker 1: your daily dose of all things baseball, news, notes, bets,

511
00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:25,680
Speaker 1: and fantasy vice all in one place. Ask questions, get insight,

512
00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:29,359
Speaker 1: and interact live false now at twitch dot tv slash

513
00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:32,680
Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros and never miss a stream. A bigger lineup

514
00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:36,560
Speaker 1: of exclusive, interactive live content is on the way, Welsh.

515
00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:39,080
Speaker 1: As we alluded to, you guys been very busy over there.

516
00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:40,879
Speaker 1: The twitch is a great way to get involved and

517
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:43,320
Speaker 1: join in on some of the shenanigans that you and

518
00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:44,760
Speaker 1: jog it into each and every day.

519
00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:47,840
Speaker 2: It's definitely a community. Yes, come and hang out. We're

520
00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:51,119
Speaker 2: talking betting, we're talking fantasy, we talk a reverence. So

521
00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:54,720
Speaker 2: come and hang out live on Twitch dot tv slash

522
00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:57,520
Speaker 2: Fantasy Pros and come and hang out. And then if not,

523
00:22:57,680 --> 00:22:59,400
Speaker 2: you can always check out the Fantasy Pros and WLB

524
00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:01,640
Speaker 2: YouTube to watch it. But we've got a great community,

525
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:03,359
Speaker 2: We've got great people, and come and be a part

526
00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:03,639
Speaker 2: of it.

527
00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:07,280
Speaker 1: Let's go ahead, let's crack open the Division winner odds

528
00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:09,800
Speaker 1: another market where better's got to get creative here to

529
00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:12,760
Speaker 1: find some value. The Dodgers now minus seven hundred to

530
00:23:12,840 --> 00:23:15,879
Speaker 1: win the NL West. The Cubs minus two fifty to

531
00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:19,119
Speaker 1: win the NL Central, and the Yankees they're now minus

532
00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:21,280
Speaker 1: five to seventy five to win the AL East. There

533
00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:23,600
Speaker 1: minus one thirty five when we talked in May and

534
00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:25,520
Speaker 1: plus one sixty in spring training.

535
00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:27,080
Speaker 3: Joe, I got to come.

536
00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:29,359
Speaker 1: To you, man, Are these heavy favorites very much in

537
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:32,399
Speaker 1: the driver seats of their division? Or were you may

538
00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:34,240
Speaker 1: be able to sniff out some value elsewhere?

539
00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:38,760
Speaker 4: Those are absolutely the favorites. There's just no real value

540
00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:41,960
Speaker 4: in betting any of them. So I'm going with one

541
00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:44,359
Speaker 4: that I think some people might push back on initially

542
00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:47,159
Speaker 4: when they hear it. But the Padres to win the

543
00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:50,040
Speaker 4: National League West. You're seeing it at plus eight hundred

544
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:52,640
Speaker 4: or plus nine hundred, depending on your book. And don't

545
00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:55,240
Speaker 4: get me wrong, the Dodgers should absolutely be favored in

546
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:56,800
Speaker 4: this market, but they're minus.

547
00:23:56,480 --> 00:23:59,480
Speaker 5: Eight fifty and it feels a little.

548
00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:02,040
Speaker 4: Strong to me considering they have a one game lead

549
00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:05,000
Speaker 4: in the division right now. So should they be favored, Yes,

550
00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:07,280
Speaker 4: it just feels like it's too much value going the

551
00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:10,400
Speaker 4: Padres way. There's talk about them acquiring Jaron Duran. Possibly

552
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:12,400
Speaker 4: they're gonna be a team that makes moves. They always

553
00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 4: do make big moves. The Dodgers have dealt with a

554
00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:17,040
Speaker 4: ton of injuries, and their core is kind of on

555
00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:18,880
Speaker 4: the older side. And we've got some bad news about

556
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:22,720
Speaker 4: Tyler Glass now yesterday. I'm not sure about Blake Snell's timeline.

557
00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:24,760
Speaker 4: You know, you got Freddi Freeman at thirty six. You

558
00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:27,760
Speaker 4: got Mookie, who's dealing with more things as he gets older.

559
00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:30,320
Speaker 4: He's already had a couple of problems this season, going

560
00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:32,440
Speaker 4: back to the preseason when he lost all that weight

561
00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 4: and then he was banged up the other day. They're

562
00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:37,680
Speaker 4: not a young team. They're an amazing team, but there

563
00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:39,800
Speaker 4: are avenues for them not to miss the playoffs. Like

564
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:42,200
Speaker 4: this team is making the playoffs. But could the Padres

565
00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:44,520
Speaker 4: sneak into that lead spot of the National League West?

566
00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:45,000
Speaker 5: I think so.

567
00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:46,720
Speaker 4: I think it'll be hard for them, But a plus

568
00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:48,840
Speaker 4: nine hundred, I think it's worth taking that bet.

569
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:51,640
Speaker 3: At nine to one for a team in the mix.

570
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:53,960
Speaker 1: As much as the Padres are well, it feels like

571
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:57,560
Speaker 1: a great number despite the Dodgers being an absolute juggernaut.

572
00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:01,640
Speaker 2: Those are the actual odds's the bet of bets, for sure.

573
00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:05,400
Speaker 2: I must have totally missed that. Those are phenomenal. There's

574
00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:07,720
Speaker 2: some questions on you know, what the Padres end up doing,

575
00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:10,280
Speaker 2: Like if they were to trade for Jaron Duran, some

576
00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 2: people question what it be on a younger prospect side.

577
00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:17,199
Speaker 2: I wonder if the fit happens, would the Padres have

578
00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:19,800
Speaker 2: to end up moving any core pieces And if they

579
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:21,640
Speaker 2: were to you know, let go of like a Luisa

580
00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:24,520
Speaker 2: Rise or it kind of seems more unlikely that they

581
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:27,120
Speaker 2: would sell off a King or a Dylan Ceeese regardless

582
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:29,239
Speaker 2: of getting a guy like him. But so what does

583
00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:31,240
Speaker 2: that end up looking like? But at the end of

584
00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:33,960
Speaker 2: the day, the team is pretty stacked. They do have

585
00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:35,840
Speaker 2: Darvish coming back, and if you can have just like

586
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 2: any piece of what that old Darvish was, they've got

587
00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:42,240
Speaker 2: a phenomenal bullpen, and they've got a great starting roster

588
00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:45,600
Speaker 2: that's got some flexibility. Guys like cronin Worth can move around.

589
00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 2: I mean, they're kind of stacked. They just need their

590
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:51,400
Speaker 2: guys to perform at level. They need their pitching staff

591
00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:54,320
Speaker 2: to pitch, you know, at level, I guess is another

592
00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:56,360
Speaker 2: word for it. And they need their bullpen to continue

593
00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:59,200
Speaker 2: to be extraordinary. Guys like Adams and Suarez. This is

594
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:01,840
Speaker 2: a pretty great bet at those odds even if it

595
00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:04,440
Speaker 2: doesn't cash out to be one game out, this is

596
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:06,680
Speaker 2: better than mine. So I think this is probably the

597
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:07,639
Speaker 2: best bet to jump on.

598
00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:09,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, that might be a squad right there for me,

599
00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:12,880
Speaker 1: a Rico, I might be joining you on that one. Man, Well,

600
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:14,880
Speaker 1: I want to throw it back to you right now.

601
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:17,280
Speaker 1: Your current portfolio. You have the Royals to win their

602
00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:20,000
Speaker 1: division plus two seventy and the Rangers to win their

603
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:22,880
Speaker 1: division up plus two thirty. Maybe a little double down

604
00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 1: opportunity for Chris Wells here.

605
00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:26,920
Speaker 2: We're going to do a little bit of a double down.

606
00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 2: That Royals one. I do not feel good about. That

607
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:31,919
Speaker 2: one is about probably as dead as the Reds, especially

608
00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:34,160
Speaker 2: they're all defense. But you know, I come back to it,

609
00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:36,440
Speaker 2: like one of the ways that Bobby Wood gets there

610
00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:38,439
Speaker 2: is if this offense goes on a tear. They have

611
00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:43,879
Speaker 2: so so dramatically underperformed the Royals have. It's absolutely ridiculous

612
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:46,159
Speaker 2: if they were to jump back up, which by the way,

613
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 2: that you know, they've got the second best home record

614
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:53,200
Speaker 2: in that division and they've been admirable I suppose against

615
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:55,240
Speaker 2: teams against five hundred, But the Royals could come back.

616
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:56,680
Speaker 2: But the double down is going to go on to

617
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:59,760
Speaker 2: the Rangers. Here the Rangers, you've got Seattle at the

618
00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:02,320
Speaker 2: top the division, who has had injury after injury, which

619
00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:04,320
Speaker 2: I would point out could actually work in their favor

620
00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:06,239
Speaker 2: because they've done it without a good Kurby, they've done

621
00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:09,960
Speaker 2: it without Gilbert. Their offensive is finally played up. They've

622
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:13,480
Speaker 2: got a positive run scored versus against differential, which was

623
00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:16,720
Speaker 2: their huge issue last year. You've got the Astros, who

624
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:19,080
Speaker 2: are right there is where they're half game behind Seattle,

625
00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:22,399
Speaker 2: who has positive differentials. They've been carried by Brown, but

626
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:25,280
Speaker 2: they've got alvarezaz banged up. They've got a lot of negatives.

627
00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:28,119
Speaker 2: Then you've got the Rangers. In all of the bad

628
00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:30,240
Speaker 2: that has been the Rangers this year, they are only

629
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:34,360
Speaker 2: four games back on this division. Marcus Simon underperformed, Jake

630
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:39,040
Speaker 2: Berger underperform, Corey Seeger has had early injuries. Now these

631
00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:42,480
Speaker 2: things continue, they're cooked. But if we get this bounce back,

632
00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:45,040
Speaker 2: if we get Simeon to bounce back, if we I mean,

633
00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:48,080
Speaker 2: their offense is stacked, if we get just a couple

634
00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:50,520
Speaker 2: of these players to get back into performing, we get

635
00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:53,960
Speaker 2: Naivaldi healthy again, You've got a healthy Jacob de Grom.

636
00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:56,480
Speaker 2: This team. They look like they're in a really great

637
00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:58,840
Speaker 2: position to be able to steal this division. Again, this

638
00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:01,560
Speaker 2: is June sewond These divisions are not going to finish

639
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:03,160
Speaker 2: how we're looking at it now. I'm not saying it's

640
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:05,320
Speaker 2: going to finish how we're saying it's going to. But

641
00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:08,600
Speaker 2: I don't think you're gonna have this exactly toe for

642
00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:10,760
Speaker 2: toe here. So I think the Rangers can go and

643
00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:13,000
Speaker 2: make a move. I think they just need their players

644
00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:15,840
Speaker 2: to pop back up and to be only four games back.

645
00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:18,080
Speaker 2: I think that's something that they can work with. They

646
00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:21,480
Speaker 2: also have the second best home record in this division.

647
00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:24,919
Speaker 2: They have wildly underperformed on the road, and that's what

648
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:26,639
Speaker 2: they're goingning to step up and do. But this is

649
00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:29,480
Speaker 2: a world championship team with a lot of those core pieces.

650
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:32,119
Speaker 2: So little White Langford up, little Corey Seger up, and

651
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:33,600
Speaker 2: I think this team could get back into it. So

652
00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:36,080
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take five and a half to one on

653
00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:38,400
Speaker 2: the Rangers to be able to take this division. And

654
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:40,239
Speaker 2: that's a double down off of the round like two

655
00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:41,840
Speaker 2: and a half that I had before.

656
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:44,720
Speaker 1: A low Rangers love. I know, uh, Joe, you don't

657
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:46,959
Speaker 1: hate that at all. If there's some Rangers love out there.

658
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:49,600
Speaker 1: It's usually you out on the internet spew and I

659
00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:51,960
Speaker 1: like this about a lot because the Rangers.

660
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:54,280
Speaker 5: They have been absolutely.

661
00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:56,480
Speaker 4: Terrible this season, but they're still, like well said, just

662
00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:58,720
Speaker 4: four games back, and their pitching has been very good

663
00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:01,479
Speaker 4: in terms of war among all major league teams. They

664
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:04,280
Speaker 4: have the seventh best pitching war. It's just that lineup

665
00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:06,320
Speaker 4: that has been lagging behind, and we've seen semi and

666
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:08,160
Speaker 4: kind of turn the corner a little bit. They need

667
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:10,480
Speaker 4: to pick things up on offense, and I think just

668
00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:12,440
Speaker 4: based on the e of all the injury, they're probably

669
00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 4: gonna have to make a move for a starting pitcher.

670
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 4: But I think that this is a solid bet to make.

671
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 4: They are still right there in the hunt. You know,

672
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:20,720
Speaker 4: they just need a couple things to go their way,

673
00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:23,080
Speaker 4: and I can very easily see them winning this division.

674
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:25,440
Speaker 4: This is a division that I think is really wide

675
00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:27,479
Speaker 4: open right now. The top four teams are separated by

676
00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:29,360
Speaker 4: five and a half games. But the Rangers are probably

677
00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:31,000
Speaker 4: the smartest bet you can make value wise.

678
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:35,800
Speaker 1: Next up is the World Series market. The Dodgers remain

679
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:38,600
Speaker 1: the betting favorite plus two eighty. They're plus two to

680
00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:40,360
Speaker 1: fifty in May, so this is the best price we've

681
00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:43,000
Speaker 1: seen in a while on La The Yankees, though they've

682
00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:45,960
Speaker 1: emerged as the second favorite plus five point fifty. They're

683
00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:48,200
Speaker 1: nine to one in May plus eight fifty to be

684
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 1: in the preseason. The Mets are now eight to one,

685
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:54,560
Speaker 1: the Phillies plus eight fifty at some books, Tigers plus

686
00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:56,800
Speaker 1: eight fifty. Well, you picked up a ticket on the

687
00:29:56,800 --> 00:29:59,760
Speaker 1: Dodgers last time out? Are you content with that in

688
00:29:59,840 --> 00:30:02,680
Speaker 1: your Red Sox ticket? Or you potentially adding to the

689
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:04,480
Speaker 1: portfolio here in June?

690
00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:08,440
Speaker 2: Well, my Red Sox ticket looks hysterically right now. We

691
00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:10,960
Speaker 2: just how they've performed. So no, I'm not content with that.

692
00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:14,840
Speaker 2: I'm not really content with the Dodgers. But if we

693
00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:16,800
Speaker 2: want to look at this from a like, what do

694
00:30:16,880 --> 00:30:20,520
Speaker 2: I currently have in my portfolio? If I've already got yes,

695
00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:21,960
Speaker 2: the odds are a little bit better, But I've already

696
00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:24,320
Speaker 2: got like a two and a half or so odds

697
00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:26,000
Speaker 2: on the Dodgers, I'm not sure I want to double

698
00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:28,160
Speaker 2: down on that, because this Dodger team is what we

699
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:33,880
Speaker 2: just laid out. They're vulnerable right now. Starting pitching is disastrous.

700
00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:35,960
Speaker 2: We don't know what hell happened with Glassnow we don't

701
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:37,800
Speaker 2: know what's going to happen with Snell. Do I think

702
00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:40,400
Speaker 2: this team is a World Series contending team If they

703
00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:44,440
Speaker 2: are going in with Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin and Clayton Kershaw,

704
00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 2: I'd put some big questions on that. And their bullpen

705
00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:49,920
Speaker 2: is of Tanna Scott's been a disaster. So they've got

706
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:51,880
Speaker 2: all the pieces. But what I want to double down now,

707
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:53,920
Speaker 2: I don't think so. What I think I would want

708
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:55,640
Speaker 2: to move to, and I think there's some really good

709
00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:57,200
Speaker 2: odds on this. I actually got better odds than you

710
00:30:57,280 --> 00:31:01,240
Speaker 2: mentioned is the Phillies. The Phillies that ten to one. Ooh,

711
00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:03,640
Speaker 2: I think this was over on FanDuel. You can get

712
00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:05,760
Speaker 2: the Phillies ten to one. And the thing that I

713
00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:10,200
Speaker 2: like about them is they have got the total package. Offensively.

714
00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:13,160
Speaker 2: We ought to get harperback. Obviously, Schwarber's playing on another level.

715
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:15,840
Speaker 2: You've got Trade Turney, You've got core pieces. Even though Alec, Bohm,

716
00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:18,920
Speaker 2: Bryce and Stotton like the best players, but the great

717
00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:21,840
Speaker 2: core pieces guys that make contact, guys that get on base,

718
00:31:21,840 --> 00:31:24,600
Speaker 2: they score runs. They're gonna need, you know, Castianos and

719
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:27,640
Speaker 2: Rimy do to pick it up. They're pitching phenomenal wheeler,

720
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 2: Chris Sanchez, Hazes Lozardo outside him getting blown up has

721
00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:33,400
Speaker 2: been incredible this year. You've got a great staff to

722
00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:36,640
Speaker 2: take you into the playoffs. The dicey part Jose Alvarado

723
00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:39,680
Speaker 2: getting suspended. He is not playoff eligible, so they're gonna

724
00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:41,400
Speaker 2: have to kind of work through that. But it's one

725
00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:44,360
Speaker 2: of those things if you want to put three pieces together.

726
00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:46,560
Speaker 2: I need offense, I need pitching, and I need bullpen.

727
00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 2: I think that team is really close, and it's small moves.

728
00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:50,520
Speaker 5: They could make.

729
00:31:50,560 --> 00:31:52,080
Speaker 2: They could go and get involved and get like a

730
00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:54,360
Speaker 2: Ryan Helzy or something, get someone in the back end

731
00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:55,960
Speaker 2: of the bullpen, and I would feel great about it.

732
00:31:56,000 --> 00:31:58,480
Speaker 2: And at ten to one, I think things are still

733
00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:00,560
Speaker 2: open right now. I wouldn't even hate the Padres. I

734
00:32:00,560 --> 00:32:02,880
Speaker 2: don't remember what their number is out there, not even

735
00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:04,880
Speaker 2: on This is probably even better. But the Phillies is

736
00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:08,200
Speaker 2: what I jumped to instead of doubling down on a Dodgers' number.

737
00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:09,680
Speaker 2: That's just like slightly better.

738
00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:12,120
Speaker 1: It's a great month to do it. In June we

739
00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:14,560
Speaker 1: have Schwarberfest coming back. I don't know if you guys

740
00:32:14,560 --> 00:32:17,840
Speaker 1: have woah wahs around you, wah wahs are elite. I

741
00:32:17,840 --> 00:32:20,200
Speaker 1: grew up in western Pennsylvania, we did not have them.

742
00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:20,880
Speaker 3: I now live in.

743
00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:24,440
Speaker 1: Eastern Pennsylvania and we have them. Fantastic love this time

744
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:26,800
Speaker 1: of the year with Schwarber headlining and all. So I

745
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:29,560
Speaker 1: like that bet a lot there from the Welsh, Joe,

746
00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:31,120
Speaker 1: what do you think in here when it comes to

747
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:33,720
Speaker 1: the World Series? You currently also have a Dodgers ticket

748
00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:35,880
Speaker 1: in your back pocket as well as a Rangers long

749
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:36,960
Speaker 1: shot at twenty two to one.

750
00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:39,640
Speaker 4: Don't feel great about the Rangers one. I'm kind of

751
00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:41,600
Speaker 4: in the same vein as the Welsh here on a

752
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:43,480
Speaker 4: lot of these points. I don't really want to double

753
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:45,520
Speaker 4: down on the Dodgers, but there is a National League

754
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:47,800
Speaker 4: Eese team at plus one thousand that does kind of

755
00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:51,120
Speaker 4: interest me, and that's the Mets. You know, we're talking

756
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:55,600
Speaker 4: about pitching lineup, all of it, bullpen starters, they have everything.

757
00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 4: I think they probably could use another starter, but they're

758
00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:00,240
Speaker 4: gonna have Sean and I coming back very soon. And

759
00:33:00,240 --> 00:33:03,440
Speaker 4: then you've got Senga who's been brilliant, Clay Holmes, who's

760
00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:06,600
Speaker 4: really surprised me this season. David Peterson's been great, Griffin

761
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:09,560
Speaker 4: Canning has been great, McGill has been fantastic. This is

762
00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:12,400
Speaker 4: a really strong group and they're gonna get Manaia back.

763
00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:14,720
Speaker 4: Maybe they could even bolst of that through the trade

764
00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:16,840
Speaker 4: market at some point. But we're also looking at a

765
00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:19,640
Speaker 4: fantastic bullpen. Edwin Diaz hadn't given up a run before

766
00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:22,000
Speaker 4: yesterday and like a month. And then you're looking at

767
00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:25,640
Speaker 4: the lineup where you got Lindor Soto Alonso and then

768
00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:28,280
Speaker 4: you got Brett Bady who's been brilliant over the last month.

769
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 4: Jeff McNeil has been really good since he's returned. So

770
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:33,040
Speaker 4: I think this is a team that kind of fills

771
00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:35,080
Speaker 4: all the boxes in terms of they have starters that

772
00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:37,280
Speaker 4: I'd feel good about in the playoff series. They have

773
00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:41,360
Speaker 4: an incredible lineup, especially when Sodo fully gets going, cause

774
00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:43,120
Speaker 4: I know the whole narrative this year is that Soto

775
00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 4: sucks one twenty five WRC plus eight hundred ops.

776
00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:49,160
Speaker 5: Once he actually turns things on, this is gonna be.

777
00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:51,920
Speaker 4: A very very scary lineup, and I think they kind

778
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:53,400
Speaker 4: of have all the pieces to be able to put

779
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:56,360
Speaker 4: this together. They are currently fifteen games above or sixteen

780
00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:59,040
Speaker 4: games above five hundred. It's a tough division, but I

781
00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:00,640
Speaker 4: think if the Mets get in and they have all

782
00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:02,200
Speaker 4: the pieces to make it to the dance.

783
00:34:03,040 --> 00:34:05,920
Speaker 1: Welsh, is Soto the X factor here for the Mets

784
00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:08,799
Speaker 1: to make a World Series run? Because you know, as

785
00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:12,080
Speaker 1: Joe said, the narrative is really that he has underperformed

786
00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:16,719
Speaker 1: some since signing arguably the biggest contract in American sports history.

787
00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:19,440
Speaker 1: So do you think he's really what's holding this team

788
00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:22,719
Speaker 1: back from becoming this elite team that can make a

789
00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:24,600
Speaker 1: run all the way to the World Series Championship.

790
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:29,399
Speaker 2: So kind of I'll say this like, he's massively underperforming,

791
00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:31,960
Speaker 2: and I don't think anybody that pays attention to baseball

792
00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:33,960
Speaker 2: thinks that he's going to keep doing that. So I'm

793
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:35,960
Speaker 2: gonna kind of flip it on you because I think

794
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:38,960
Speaker 2: he's massively important. But I also think we all see

795
00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:40,480
Speaker 2: that he's going to bounce back and he's going to

796
00:34:40,520 --> 00:34:42,680
Speaker 2: be there for the offense. I think at this moment,

797
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:44,719
Speaker 2: Soto feels like the X factor, But I think the

798
00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:47,439
Speaker 2: X factor two months from now when we're talking, it's

799
00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:50,399
Speaker 2: going to be the starting pitchers, because you list it off,

800
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:53,680
Speaker 2: they have performed so well. Can they hold up, Will

801
00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:57,120
Speaker 2: Manaya be healthy, will Clay Holmes, who is a reliever

802
00:34:57,200 --> 00:34:59,279
Speaker 2: moved into a starter, be able to keep going well.

803
00:34:59,320 --> 00:35:01,680
Speaker 2: All of these pitch that have performed at a level

804
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:05,160
Speaker 2: that nobody expected. People looked at the nets starting rotation,

805
00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:07,279
Speaker 2: We're just like, what are we doing here? You got

806
00:35:07,320 --> 00:35:10,040
Speaker 2: eight hundred million dollars in Soto and you've got David Peterson.

807
00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:12,080
Speaker 2: It's like you're number three that's not going to hold?

808
00:35:12,320 --> 00:35:15,000
Speaker 2: It is, so will it hold? It's great that it's

809
00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:17,759
Speaker 2: been two months. I think the X factor is this

810
00:35:18,000 --> 00:35:23,000
Speaker 2: rotation that vastly overperformed has to continue or they're gonna

811
00:35:23,040 --> 00:35:24,759
Speaker 2: have to make some dramatic moves because I think Sodo

812
00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:26,000
Speaker 2: is going to bounce back, and then you have this

813
00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:29,280
Speaker 2: ridiculous roster of Soto and Alonso has played well and Lindor.

814
00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:33,520
Speaker 2: That's core bullpen core rotation. The rotation is going to

815
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:35,799
Speaker 2: be the key because on paper, when we look at,

816
00:35:36,080 --> 00:35:40,040
Speaker 2: you know, a World's New York World Series matchup, and

817
00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 2: you're gonna see on the Yankee side, you're gonna see

818
00:35:43,040 --> 00:35:44,960
Speaker 2: Max Freed, and you're gonna see College Radon and then

819
00:35:45,000 --> 00:35:46,399
Speaker 2: but then you're gonna come over here and you're gonna

820
00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:49,480
Speaker 2: see like Paul Blackburn and Clay Holmes, like, it's not

821
00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:51,719
Speaker 2: going to feel great on paper, So it's really the

822
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:54,680
Speaker 2: rotation to me, withstanding the season, that's going to be

823
00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:57,400
Speaker 2: the big X factor for the New York Mets.

824
00:35:57,719 --> 00:35:58,879
Speaker 3: Great insight there.

825
00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:00,920
Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and round out the program with the

826
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:04,359
Speaker 1: guy's favorite future long shot, starting with you Joe, who

827
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:06,439
Speaker 1: is sticking to his guns yet again.

828
00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:08,839
Speaker 4: Yeah, I've switched him from the cy Young market because

829
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:11,360
Speaker 4: there are a couple of other interesting cy Young bets,

830
00:36:11,400 --> 00:36:14,680
Speaker 4: but Jacob deGrom, Baby, I'm sticking with Jacob de Gram.

831
00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:17,719
Speaker 4: We're twelve starts in, We're about halfway to success at

832
00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:19,920
Speaker 4: this point. If he gets he's at seventy innings, if

833
00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:21,880
Speaker 4: he gets to one hundred and forty one hundred and

834
00:36:21,880 --> 00:36:24,799
Speaker 4: fifty range, maintaining what we've seen so far at two

835
00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:28,560
Speaker 4: thirty four era with a sub one whip. The strikeouts

836
00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:31,040
Speaker 4: haven't been classic Jacob de Gram at all. In fact,

837
00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:33,279
Speaker 4: he had his first game of his career where he

838
00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:35,120
Speaker 4: didn't strike out a batter the other day against the

839
00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:37,720
Speaker 4: Blue Jays. It was kind of shocking to see. But overall,

840
00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:41,160
Speaker 4: the numbers have still been brilliant. Those ratios are very important,

841
00:36:41,200 --> 00:36:43,120
Speaker 4: and we both think that the Rangers are going to

842
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:45,920
Speaker 4: kind of turn things around even in their struggling period.

843
00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:47,880
Speaker 5: Through twelve starts, he has won five.

844
00:36:47,760 --> 00:36:49,479
Speaker 4: Of those, so I could very easily see him getting

845
00:36:49,480 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 4: into the double digit win territory. And if you're looking

846
00:36:52,080 --> 00:36:53,239
Speaker 4: at de Gram at the end of the year with

847
00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:56,200
Speaker 4: let's say twelve thirteen wins, with a two thirty four

848
00:36:56,239 --> 00:36:58,040
Speaker 4: ERA and a sub one whip, I think it'll be

849
00:36:58,120 --> 00:37:00,399
Speaker 4: very hard for people to not want to vote for him.

850
00:37:00,520 --> 00:37:02,000
Speaker 5: As like a Swan song.

851
00:37:02,120 --> 00:37:04,120
Speaker 4: Cy Young winner here, it looks like it's gonna be

852
00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:07,000
Speaker 4: schooble if he maintains what he's been doing. He's been

853
00:37:07,040 --> 00:37:09,480
Speaker 4: absolutely brilliant. But I think looking at the Grom, the

854
00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:12,560
Speaker 4: value I've been getting on him thirteen fourteen, fifteen to one.

855
00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:14,319
Speaker 4: This one right here is at thirteen to one, but

856
00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:16,960
Speaker 4: I had a couple of early season tickets that were

857
00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:19,879
Speaker 4: as high as sixteen to one, and I think those

858
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:22,880
Speaker 4: numbers are just too good to not bet he. You know,

859
00:37:22,920 --> 00:37:25,239
Speaker 4: maybe he doesn't stay healthy, but so far, so good,

860
00:37:25,280 --> 00:37:27,120
Speaker 4: and I think if he's able to maintain what he's done,

861
00:37:27,719 --> 00:37:29,560
Speaker 4: there's a good chance he ends up with some hardware.

862
00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:31,960
Speaker 1: Do you have a de Grom Jersey yet, Joe, I

863
00:37:32,040 --> 00:37:33,360
Speaker 1: don't somebody sent me one.

864
00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:35,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, you're gonna have enough money.

865
00:37:35,080 --> 00:37:37,160
Speaker 1: I after if this bet cash is because you have

866
00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:39,720
Speaker 1: enough invested into gram this season.

867
00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:41,399
Speaker 3: Well, shround us out here.

868
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:43,600
Speaker 1: You have a couple of really interesting long shots you've

869
00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:45,800
Speaker 1: given us so far this season. He had the Crochet

870
00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:48,399
Speaker 1: to lead the MLB and K's show Hey to lead

871
00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 1: the league in home runs as well.

872
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:51,879
Speaker 3: Eight to one? What have you giving us this week?

873
00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:54,239
Speaker 2: Yew? This is I gotta say, I think this is

874
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:56,840
Speaker 2: my best market. Of all of these, there's like wishy washy.

875
00:37:56,960 --> 00:37:59,360
Speaker 2: This is the one I'm in love with my previous

876
00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:02,719
Speaker 2: bets because Crochet I think I gave preseason ten to

877
00:38:02,800 --> 00:38:05,319
Speaker 2: one to lead the league in strikeouts, He's tied. And

878
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:07,799
Speaker 2: then last month I gave Sho Hee Otani to lead

879
00:38:07,840 --> 00:38:10,160
Speaker 2: the league in homers at eight to one. He is

880
00:38:10,239 --> 00:38:12,560
Speaker 2: tied at the top and two above Judge right now.

881
00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:15,160
Speaker 2: So I feel I really love this market. I will

882
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:17,600
Speaker 2: say it's a little bit tougher because books are giving

883
00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:20,360
Speaker 2: you less of these fun ones like I went and

884
00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:22,959
Speaker 2: looked today and I couldn't even jump on in any

885
00:38:23,080 --> 00:38:25,160
Speaker 2: like who's to lead in stolen base? You know. So

886
00:38:25,560 --> 00:38:28,919
Speaker 2: I'm getting is the odds in certain places, these bets

887
00:38:28,960 --> 00:38:30,360
Speaker 2: are starting to come off, so you're gonna have to

888
00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:32,960
Speaker 2: look in different places. So I'm going to an awards

889
00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:35,080
Speaker 2: market here for this one, and I don't know what

890
00:38:35,080 --> 00:38:36,480
Speaker 2: it's gonna look like in a couple months of what

891
00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:39,000
Speaker 2: we'll have available, but I think this is kind of

892
00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:41,799
Speaker 2: right for the picking and Joe he had talked about this,

893
00:38:41,840 --> 00:38:44,080
Speaker 2: and I think this is much better odds about a

894
00:38:44,120 --> 00:38:46,919
Speaker 2: week ago. But listen, Jack Cacleon is gonna be making

895
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:49,239
Speaker 2: his major league debut today and you can get him

896
00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:51,600
Speaker 2: at twelve to one at least on Fandle. Odds are

897
00:38:51,640 --> 00:38:55,120
Speaker 2: probably probably waiving anywhere from ten to maybe fifteen across

898
00:38:55,160 --> 00:38:59,440
Speaker 2: different books. He's obviously not making his debut, you know,

899
00:38:59,560 --> 00:39:01,400
Speaker 2: two months after the rest of these guys, or he

900
00:39:01,400 --> 00:39:03,640
Speaker 2: hadn't made it so far at this point of the season,

901
00:39:03,719 --> 00:39:07,040
Speaker 2: so he is statistically behind. But guess what. Both of

902
00:39:07,080 --> 00:39:10,480
Speaker 2: these markets in the AL and NL, they're open, and

903
00:39:10,520 --> 00:39:13,600
Speaker 2: I know it doesn't feel open as great as Jacob

904
00:39:13,640 --> 00:39:17,799
Speaker 2: Wilson has been categorically his from a staff market, it's

905
00:39:17,880 --> 00:39:20,480
Speaker 2: really really low and he can hit. He get end

906
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:22,400
Speaker 2: up hitting like three ten or three fifteen, But it's

907
00:39:22,400 --> 00:39:24,399
Speaker 2: still going to be with like eight homers and four

908
00:39:24,440 --> 00:39:27,319
Speaker 2: stolen bases and low runs and low RB guys on

909
00:39:27,360 --> 00:39:29,560
Speaker 2: a team that's going to kind of stink. What if

910
00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:32,400
Speaker 2: the Royals bounce back. What if the Royals do get

911
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:35,480
Speaker 2: and sneak into the division with an MVP type candidate

912
00:39:35,520 --> 00:39:38,120
Speaker 2: like Bobby Witt. It might be due to some of

913
00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:40,600
Speaker 2: Jack Haglillin. Kaglilan is going to put up monster numbers.

914
00:39:40,600 --> 00:39:44,400
Speaker 2: He's got a big chase rate that's worrisome. But Christian

915
00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:47,480
Speaker 2: Campbell looks like he has put himself out of this market.

916
00:39:47,560 --> 00:39:50,000
Speaker 2: Cam Smith put himself out of the market. These are

917
00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:52,160
Speaker 2: guys that have been up since day one. It's only

918
00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:54,920
Speaker 2: Jacob Wilson. So you're making one big fight for a

919
00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:57,160
Speaker 2: guy and a team that is not going to win

920
00:39:57,520 --> 00:39:59,840
Speaker 2: and puts up low counting stats. I think the A

921
00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:03,560
Speaker 2: Rookie of the Year market has some vulnerability and Jack

922
00:40:03,600 --> 00:40:06,440
Speaker 2: Cagleon can put up the type of stats and convault

923
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:08,640
Speaker 2: this team up. One of the worst offenses in baseball

924
00:40:09,160 --> 00:40:13,360
Speaker 2: to even have a perceived bigger feel, much bigger feel

925
00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:16,359
Speaker 2: to voters here. So twelve to one, I think Jack

926
00:40:16,440 --> 00:40:18,520
Speaker 2: Caglion is a pretty decent bet to jump in on

927
00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:20,000
Speaker 2: right now, So I think that's where I would go

928
00:40:20,080 --> 00:40:20,759
Speaker 2: with my deep bet.

929
00:40:21,120 --> 00:40:23,279
Speaker 1: Love it real quick, Welsh, Can you just put in

930
00:40:23,360 --> 00:40:27,360
Speaker 1: perspective for us, like what caliber of prospect we're looking

931
00:40:27,400 --> 00:40:30,239
Speaker 1: at here with Jack? Is this someone that's on like

932
00:40:30,280 --> 00:40:34,600
Speaker 1: the Mike Trout or the level of some of these

933
00:40:34,640 --> 00:40:37,080
Speaker 1: other prospects we've seen coming in the last few years.

934
00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:40,320
Speaker 3: Or is he just in different category all by himself.

935
00:40:40,880 --> 00:40:42,960
Speaker 2: No, I mean I think he's in the upper echelon.

936
00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:44,839
Speaker 2: Like if you were to look over the I'm trying

937
00:40:44,840 --> 00:40:46,879
Speaker 2: and complete blank to last year, but like he's the

938
00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:49,880
Speaker 2: most exciting prospect this season, and that's over all the

939
00:40:49,920 --> 00:40:51,960
Speaker 2: hype we built up or guys like Nick Kurtz, right,

940
00:40:52,280 --> 00:40:56,080
Speaker 2: I would even say over Christian Campbell at this point. Now,

941
00:40:56,120 --> 00:40:58,120
Speaker 2: is he going to be better? I don't know, because

942
00:40:58,320 --> 00:41:01,160
Speaker 2: he has I think he walks in and I know

943
00:41:01,200 --> 00:41:03,120
Speaker 2: this sounds ridiculous, He's gonna walk in as one of

944
00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:06,120
Speaker 2: the top ten or fifteen biggest power hitters in baseball. Wow,

945
00:41:06,239 --> 00:41:08,480
Speaker 2: right now? Right now? Like that's his power. It's like

946
00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:11,840
Speaker 2: an eighty seventy grade power. Guy hits five hundred foot homers.

947
00:41:12,600 --> 00:41:15,680
Speaker 2: He is cut down his strikeouts, which is great. He's

948
00:41:15,719 --> 00:41:18,279
Speaker 2: making more contact. He hit at both levels, hitting over

949
00:41:18,360 --> 00:41:22,160
Speaker 2: three hundred, and he's learning to play defensively outfield and

950
00:41:22,239 --> 00:41:24,560
Speaker 2: first base. And this guy, by the way, he was

951
00:41:24,680 --> 00:41:28,440
Speaker 2: pitching last year in the college. He was pitching the

952
00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:30,920
Speaker 2: Gators last year. So this is a two way player

953
00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:34,560
Speaker 2: that was in college at this point last season. So like,

954
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:37,279
Speaker 2: this is a huge, huge prospect, but it can go

955
00:41:37,360 --> 00:41:40,040
Speaker 2: either way. It could taper down because he's got bad

956
00:41:40,120 --> 00:41:42,719
Speaker 2: with rate chase rate stuff that if he ends up

957
00:41:42,800 --> 00:41:45,360
Speaker 2: hitting two ten it wouldn't be a surprise. But also

958
00:41:45,480 --> 00:41:47,279
Speaker 2: it could be on the level of, like, wow, this

959
00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:50,800
Speaker 2: guy in four months hits twenty five homers, hits two seventy,

960
00:41:51,120 --> 00:41:53,080
Speaker 2: and runs away with the Rookie of the year. So

961
00:41:53,200 --> 00:41:55,839
Speaker 2: it's on the scope. It's a very very big name

962
00:41:55,880 --> 00:41:57,439
Speaker 2: over the last couple of years that we've seen.

963
00:41:57,840 --> 00:41:58,160
Speaker 5: Love it.

964
00:41:58,200 --> 00:42:00,200
Speaker 1: Well, that's gonna do it for us today on the

965
00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:03,600
Speaker 1: Betting Pros podcast. Thank you so much for watching. As always,

966
00:42:03,640 --> 00:42:06,040
Speaker 1: the best freeway to support us is give this video

967
00:42:06,120 --> 00:42:08,280
Speaker 1: a thumbs up if you unsuly this type of content.

968
00:42:08,360 --> 00:42:11,080
Speaker 1: Also subscribe to the channel if you're new Also make

969
00:42:11,080 --> 00:42:14,360
Speaker 1: sure you're downloading the BP app and syncing your sportsbooks today.

970
00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:17,719
Speaker 1: For Chris Welsh and Joe Rico, I'm Seth Wilcock. Take

971
00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:19,080
Speaker 1: care of y'all.

972
00:42:19,120 --> 00:42:21,719
Speaker 6: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

973
00:42:21,800 --> 00:42:24,160
Speaker 6: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

974
00:42:24,160 --> 00:42:27,560
Speaker 6: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

975
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:30,480
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976
00:42:30,600 --> 00:42:34,240
Speaker 6: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube

977
00:42:34,320 --> 00:42:37,800
Speaker 6: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros