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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by Bet three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is

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Speaker 1: our Tuesday Week thirteen episode. We're going to break down

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Speaker 1: the entire slate of NFL games, the Thursday games, the

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Speaker 1: Friday game, the Sunday games, on and on. This is

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Speaker 1: our Thanksgiving week mega episode. We will not have a

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Speaker 1: Thursday episode, so every segment, big balls, boosted parlays from

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Speaker 1: BET three sixty five, the money line, underdog parlay, sharp calls,

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Speaker 1: any big bets will all be discussed today extra time

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Speaker 1: to linger over the podcast in advance of the Thursday games.

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Speaker 1: We will also discuss our exact decision our Simon says.

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Speaker 1: We will narrow down and probably get to our five

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Speaker 1: options to put into the Favorites podcast one hundred thousand

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Speaker 1: dollars Pro Football pick'em contest. We went two and three

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Speaker 1: last week, losing our final pick of the Rams plus

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Speaker 1: two and a half. Saquon Barkley may still be running

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Speaker 1: against the Rams defense. The Eagles defense may still be

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Speaker 1: pressuring Matthew Stafford. It's time to stuff our faces with bets.

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Speaker 1: We love for the Glorious thanks Giving Week live from

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Speaker 1: our Tommy John Holmes Studios. I'm joined as always by

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Speaker 1: my co host, my companion, my campadre, my BFF Professional

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Speaker 1: better Simon Hunter at swim in Seah.

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Speaker 2: It doesn't it feel like this is our holiday weekend

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Speaker 2: as a football fan? This whole week, It's like we

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Speaker 2: got games Thursday games, Fridays games, Sunday, college football Saturday.

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Speaker 2: It's just it feels like this is our week. If

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Speaker 2: you're a football fan.

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Speaker 1: It is an amazing week if you want to watch football.

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Speaker 1: We're lucky that Matt Mitchell are brilliant into producer, organizes

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Speaker 1: it so everybody gets all their football podcasts packed in

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Speaker 1: before everything begins and we get to just relax and

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Speaker 1: watch the Thursday games. In a moment, we'll recap the

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Speaker 1: results of week twelve in our contest, will announce the

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Speaker 1: winner of our big weekly cash prize. As our volume boss,

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Speaker 1: Colin Cowhard likes to say, there's a see of money

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Speaker 1: out there. There's a sea of money out there. By

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Speaker 1: the way, you can still sign up for the Favorites

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Speaker 1: one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football pick'em contest wins some

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Speaker 1: weekly prizes presented by Bet three six five. Visit Favorites

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Speaker 1: dot actionnetwork dot com. The Favorites podcast is presented by

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Speaker 1: Bet three six five and now new Bet three six five.

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Speaker 1: Customers get one hundred and fifty in bonus bets when

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Speaker 1: you bet five dollars. Sign up using promo code Favorites

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Speaker 1: de Posita ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars,

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Speaker 1: get one hundred and fifty dollars and bonus bets. Those

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Speaker 1: bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,

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Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At Bet

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Speaker 1: three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older and

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Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia.

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Speaker 1: We're eighteen and older. In Kentucky. Gambling problem called one

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Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in

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Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply. Congratulations to Week eleven first

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Speaker 1: place winner B McSween three. B McSween went five and

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Speaker 1: zero nailed the Monday Night football tiebreaker. He's taken home

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Speaker 1: the max two thousand dollars. Weekly prize Our producer Matt

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Speaker 1: Mitchell has also selected his Producer's Cup award to the

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Speaker 1: entry that finished dead fucking last in the contest.

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Speaker 2: Have you heard about the Lords?

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Speaker 3: Loser?

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Speaker 4: He's a Louis About He's still kids on try.

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Speaker 1: This week's Producer's Cup goes to Bruce Lee's Master, who

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Speaker 1: went onh and five missed the tiebreaker by four hundred yards.

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Speaker 1: Bruce Lee as Master. Email our producer at podcast at

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Speaker 1: Action network dot com to claim your price. One final

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Speaker 1: order of business super important. The New Favorites podcast Watch

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Speaker 1: Party is happening. It's time to RSVP Thursday, December twelfth.

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Speaker 1: It's coming up fast. It's at the Wicked Wolf in

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Speaker 1: Center City, Philadelphia. We're doing a hometown event for my bff,

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Speaker 1: Simon Hunter. We're gonna have drinks, We're gonna have a

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Speaker 1: live Q and A with me and Simon and Matt Mitchell.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna happen from six to six pm to eight pm.

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Speaker 1: Then we're all gonna hang out for the Thursday night

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Speaker 1: football game between the Rams and the Niners. RSVP for

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Speaker 1: this free event, RSVP, I'm begging you. Check out the

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Speaker 1: link in the podcast page or YouTube episode description. Can't

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Speaker 1: wait to see you there, RSVP, Come hang out with us.

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Speaker 1: Happy Thanksgiving gamblers. We're thankful for you. All right, we

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Speaker 1: got this abbreviated schedule. We do want to hear how

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Speaker 1: the wise guys have reacted to our Sunday show. I

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Speaker 1: know Simon's on a forty eight hour coffee and two

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Speaker 1: binge of just betting his face off, trying to figure

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Speaker 1: out what's happening in the markets in a reduced window.

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Speaker 1: You've been hearing a lot from your neighborhood. Let's get

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Speaker 1: too sharp calls.

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Speaker 2: Hello, who's there? I'm talking rain.

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Speaker 1: Rain telephone range. Somebody said, maybe what to do man?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, let's just run through real quick for Thursday games. Right,

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Speaker 2: Professionals that I've talked to, they love the Bears, no shocker,

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Speaker 2: they've loved the Bears these last couple of weeks, and

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Speaker 2: it's been hitting for him, right, and they've been betting

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Speaker 2: the good number, and I think they're going back to that. Well,

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Speaker 2: you know that's a game we're gonna break down. But

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Speaker 2: nothing's changed for me. Still like Detroit would be great

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Speaker 2: if it goes under ten. I mean there's still some

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Speaker 2: ten and a halfs out there, a couple of tens

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Speaker 2: are popping up now, it'd be great if it gets

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Speaker 2: sound of nine and a half. So nothing changed for

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Speaker 2: me there, But yeah, the professionals on the other side,

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Speaker 2: the boys love my side for the Giants game, you know,

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Speaker 2: we'll talk about that one as well. I just I

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Speaker 2: love this spot for this Giants team against this Cowboys

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Speaker 2: team coming off that type of win. And we've just

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Speaker 2: known historical data backs that the public always loves the

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Speaker 2: Cowboys on Thanksgiving and they just do not cover. It's

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Speaker 2: just the way it is. It's just either getting a

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Speaker 2: free couple of points or you're just getting a ton

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Speaker 2: of value on the money line fading them. So that's

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Speaker 2: when I came with to dive into in the last

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Speaker 2: one again, we love I wish we could put in

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Speaker 2: the contest green Bay minus three and a half at home.

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Speaker 2: That's when we're obvious just gonna break down. But the

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Speaker 2: professionals love that. There was a little back and forth.

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Speaker 2: I know a couple guys that like Miami. I think

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Speaker 2: it stems to what we talked about the two and

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Speaker 2: the Jordan love questions, right, Like one guy has been

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Speaker 2: playing great these last couple of weeks. The other one

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Speaker 2: is not makes total sense. Get their argument, but that's

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Speaker 2: a game we'll dive into and I'll give them my

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Speaker 2: reason why. We just love this Green Bay spot and

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Speaker 2: obviously there's other reasons for it. But Vegas, I mean,

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Speaker 2: that's a professional game. A lot of the pros I

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Speaker 2: talked to you love that game. Obviously would have been

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Speaker 2: nice if you get the thirteen thirteen and a half,

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Speaker 2: but you know, that's a game. Another game I think

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Speaker 2: we might talk about. I know we can't pun the contest,

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Speaker 2: but you know it's my homes is a double digit favorite, right.

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Speaker 2: I think it's that simple, and I kind of was

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Speaker 2: overthinking it. It's like, I don't know if I wanna

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Speaker 2: betting on this Raiders backup, but it's all about playing

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Speaker 2: the number, right chet. So yeah, the professionals, everyone I've

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Speaker 2: talked to, they like, they like that side. So nothing

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Speaker 2: shocked in there. So let's get to the Sunday games,

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Speaker 2: a game I love every pro I've talked who loves

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Speaker 2: this side Chargers. I know what happened last night. People,

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Speaker 2: I know it's gonna leave a bad taste in their mouth,

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Speaker 2: but every pro I talked to is on the Chargers

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Speaker 2: against Atlanta, so little foreshadowing that might be. Simon says,

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Speaker 2: I love that number, especially at one and a half,

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Speaker 2: So that's just a game. A lot of guys have

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Speaker 2: talked about Jags Jets games. We'll talk about as well,

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Speaker 2: ugly games. The pros like it. We've seen the Jags

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Speaker 2: number come down. I've seen early Seattle money came in

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Speaker 2: and that number one up two and a half. I

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Speaker 2: think that honestly makes sense with everything going on in

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Speaker 2: the Jets camp. So nothing shocking there in the last

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Speaker 2: two Buffalo I know it's a shocker. A lot of

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Speaker 2: people six and a half seven professionals love that. It's

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Speaker 2: one of the best running teams against a team that

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Speaker 2: can't stop the run right now in the forty nine

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Speaker 2: Ers and a team me and Chad love, I have

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Speaker 2: no doubt will be one of our five Carolina Panthers

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Speaker 2: professionals love that side. You know this touch six and

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Speaker 2: a half in a couple of books went right back

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Speaker 2: down a six couple books, five and a half makes sense.

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Speaker 2: We love this Panthers team. We like this matchup. The

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Speaker 2: Bucks are a really good team. Are they good enough

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Speaker 2: to blow out a divisional opponent on the road and

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Speaker 2: back to back weeks, I don't think so. So Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I'm excited to break down these games. Show.

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Speaker 1: God, you mentioned so many of the games that I

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Speaker 1: want to talk about today. On that first one up

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Speaker 1: Chicago at Detroit. That's a good job.

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Speaker 2: I got us to ten.

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Speaker 5: That's ten. That's nine in a row.

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Speaker 2: How many you guys have won nine in a row

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Speaker 2: in here in the NFL. Yeah, it's saying something that's rare.

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Speaker 3: All right, We're in rare air right now.

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Speaker 2: All right, so we're doing something special, which we knew

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Speaker 2: we would.

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Speaker 1: Detroit minus ten. As you just said, dude, it hit ten.

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Speaker 1: I don't know when you saw it. I saw it

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Speaker 1: this morning. This was a ten and a half. I

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Speaker 1: think even when I checked lines at six thirty or

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Speaker 1: seven this morning, it was still at ten and a half.

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Speaker 1: Now down to ten, and I love that for us,

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Speaker 1: Like the Bears had two games in which Caleb Williams

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Speaker 1: played well and they still lost in a coaching mismatch

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Speaker 1: with a lot of coaching mistakes. Right, Eberflus on the

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Speaker 1: road is historically bad. I know this feels like a huge, huge,

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Speaker 1: huge number, but all Jared goff In the line. Dou

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Speaker 1: Is cover go off thirty three and eleven against the

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Speaker 1: spread the past three seasons indoors. The last loss was

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Speaker 1: to the Texans in which they came back from a

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Speaker 1: million points and they still won by three. And they

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Speaker 1: lost to the Bucks in Week two. This is a

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Speaker 1: very physical football team that is consistent, and that's a

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Speaker 1: theme that I want to come back to later in

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Speaker 1: the show with another team. I'm excited to get your

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Speaker 1: take on that game that I want to talk about.

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Speaker 1: Let me define some some physical stats about the Lions.

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Speaker 1: Second overall in success rate offensively, second overall in success

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Speaker 1: rate for the run rush EPA, second, EPA overall. Third,

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Speaker 1: They're just great. I don't want to get in front

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Speaker 1: of this train.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a team that didn't have to play that

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Speaker 2: hard in the fourth quarter, right, they kind of took

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Speaker 2: their foot off the guests. On the flip side, this

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Speaker 2: Bears team just went overtime. Now they're on a short week.

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Speaker 2: It's like we're now we're talking about that. How big

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Speaker 2: of a deal that is for a noon kickoff, which

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Speaker 2: is pretty insane you really think about it, you know,

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Speaker 2: looking at this matchup, Chad, I think we both view

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Speaker 2: the Bears a team that have turned a corner here, right,

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Speaker 2: Kaleb Williams, You know, I saw some crazy steat. He's

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Speaker 2: one of the only quarterbacks I believe this season that

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Speaker 2: three for three yards two touchdowns against that have Vikings

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Speaker 2: defense without having a turnover, which, you know, knock the

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Speaker 2: kid as much as he went for that dumb sack

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Speaker 2: he gave up, but that's a veteran playing type of quarterback.

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Speaker 2: That's a really tough defense to have. Vikings defense all

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Speaker 2: season he played great. So I get what the professionals

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Speaker 2: coming on. This is such a huge number. They believe

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Speaker 2: that calebill will make it to the back door. Totally

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Speaker 2: get where they're coming from. But I'm the viewpoint of

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Speaker 2: what you just said. This Detroit team is different. They're

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Speaker 2: a total complete teams, special teams, defense and offense. It's

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Speaker 2: all there. And defensively, I've I think they're gonna actually

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Speaker 2: struggle the Bears against this Detroit defense in this spot.

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Speaker 2: And I look at the offense, like you just talked

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Speaker 2: about the running style. How do we not bank that

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Speaker 2: that's the Bears' biggest weakness and that's exactly what the

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Speaker 2: Troy wants to do. They want to impose their will.

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Speaker 2: So we already saw the crazy stats from Evan, the

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Speaker 2: fact that you know, favorites are ten points or more.

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Speaker 2: They're just covering machines on Thanksgiving. We talked about that,

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Speaker 2: and you know, golf, this is shocking with Detroit and

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Speaker 2: him and Campbell. He's zero to three straight up on Thanksgiving.

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Speaker 2: So last year he got upset straight up against Jordan Love.

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Speaker 2: It believe they were seven and a half point favorite

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Speaker 2: something like that, And obviously I was on Detroit side.

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Speaker 2: I cannot see that happening again with this team like it,

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Speaker 2: just like I get last year they got caught off guard.

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Speaker 2: But that Jordan Love team this is a totally different

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Speaker 2: steering air, a different spot. So yeah, this this one's

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Speaker 2: not gonna scare me off. Even if it was ten

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Speaker 2: and a half, I still would to take Detroit here

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Speaker 2: in this number.

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Speaker 1: I've honestly, I haven't done it yet because I was

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Speaker 1: staring at the ten and a half, it was staying

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Speaker 1: at minus one ten, and I was just waiting, knowing

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Speaker 1: that there was some rumbling from the professional betting community

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Speaker 1: that they were on the bears. You could start to

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Speaker 1: see a little bit in how that money was moving

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Speaker 1: that I felt like it was going to go to ten,

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Speaker 1: and it still may go down further, So I'm happy

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Speaker 1: to wait here. You mentioned the rush Bears twenty sixth

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Speaker 1: in run stop win Ray, what basically means they're not

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Speaker 1: very good at getting off the ball. Their rush defense

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Speaker 1: is truly terrible. They've allowed fewer than one hundred and

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Speaker 1: nineteen rushing yards just three times this season, fewer than

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Speaker 1: one hundred yards just twice, once to Jacksonville. And we're

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Speaker 1: talking about a Lions team that runs the ball with

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Speaker 1: abandon on third and long like, because they play every series.

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Speaker 1: If it's it's a full four ounce, they play all

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Speaker 1: four downs. They don't give up twenty five percent of

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Speaker 1: their opportunities to get a first down. So third and

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Speaker 1: eight they're giving it to Jumior Gibbs and thinking, great,

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Speaker 1: we get four yards. We're going to go four on

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Speaker 1: fourth and four anyways, So it's a mismatch in every regard.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Just to finish it off, the trend stats from

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Speaker 2: Evan Thanksgiving favorites double digits, so ten points are more

263
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Speaker 2: eleven and zero against the spread. Since nineteen ninety, Favorites

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Speaker 2: of seven points or more Thanksgiving twenty nine and five

265
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Speaker 2: straight up, twenty five and nine against the spread. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: this is a day for trends, and that's a trend

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Speaker 2: you cannot ignore. We wanted to stay apparently at ten

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Speaker 2: chat that would actually good for us. This is great.

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Speaker 5: You know, there's some things in life that just fit.

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Speaker 5: And I think when you talk about football, Thanksgiving, traditional

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Speaker 5: rivalries and being there, that's a good fit.

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Speaker 2: Happy Thanksgiving to you.

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Speaker 5: And Happy Thanksgiving to you, and we have it all

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Speaker 5: again today, the tradition of Thanksgiving and football.

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Speaker 1: All right, you talked about the Giants. They're at Dallas.

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Speaker 1: The spread is four, or you said it on Sunday night.

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Speaker 1: This line has gone up in the past forty eight hours,

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Speaker 1: from two and a half to three all the way

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Speaker 1: to four and a half. There's a little buy back

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Speaker 1: at four and a half. I mean, look, I understand

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Speaker 1: the logic. I know what's the number we should play.

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Speaker 1: I don't really want anything to do with it. I'm

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Speaker 1: glad it's not going to be a contest play.

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Speaker 2: I can't believe this. It feels like such a spot

285
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Speaker 2: for us. We just we can fait Cooper rush off

286
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Speaker 2: a dramatic win on the road coming Home now against

287
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Speaker 2: you know, Dany Vito just got destroyed. I mean they

288
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Speaker 2: got to the trash is a gold mine.

289
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Speaker 1: He plays like Dana DeVito, but his name is Tommy DeVito.

290
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Speaker 2: He's just terrible. So yeah, I'm just I get where

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Speaker 2: people are coming from. I get why your hesitation here,

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Speaker 2: But to me, I don't think the Giants are as

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Speaker 2: bad as they look. That was just a really well

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Speaker 2: prepared Buckston that just absolutely rolled them. You know, it

295
00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:55,800
Speaker 2: was not really a good prepared team. The Cowboys they're bad.

296
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Speaker 2: They're a bad coach team. So looking at this matchup

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Speaker 2: feels like we're getting what a free point and a

298
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Speaker 2: half here? This is this line has been bumped up

299
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Speaker 2: all up to four now at this point, So I

300
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Speaker 2: love it. And I talked about those trends that evn't

301
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Speaker 2: talked about where it's like, okay, the Cowboys are always

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Speaker 2: going a couple extra points right a quote unquote America's team,

303
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Speaker 2: especially on Thanksgiving, this is a unique spot where it's

304
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Speaker 2: like all the money is really pouring in all them,

305
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Speaker 2: like this is going to be probably the biggest knee dog,

306
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Speaker 2: And usually when favorites got a ton of money on Thanksgiving,

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Speaker 2: I picked them, right, that's that you want to be

308
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Speaker 2: on the really chalky side on Thanksgiving. But the Cowboys

309
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Speaker 2: are a little different. So you know, they're two and

310
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Speaker 2: eleven against the spread the last thirteen Thanksgiving games, feeling

311
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Speaker 2: to cover by nine points per game. That's pretty insane.

312
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Speaker 2: Off the top, they haven't won a back to back.

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Speaker 2: They haven't won it covered. I should say back to

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Speaker 2: back Thanksgiving game since Tony Roum went oh eight and

315
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Speaker 2: oh nine. So I guess if you're one of those

316
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Speaker 2: people that think they're due, I guess this is your spot.

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Speaker 2: Take the Cowboys here, and it is what we just

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Speaker 2: talked to. The Giants are reeling right now. It looks

319
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Speaker 2: like a good team that might have quit, but it's really

320
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Speaker 2: I just have to play this number and take this

321
00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:08,240
Speaker 2: plus four with this Giants teams.

322
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Speaker 1: So hard to figure out when to block out the

323
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Speaker 1: noise and when to lean into the noise. Yeah, we

324
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Speaker 1: have two New York teams. You mentioned to the Jets

325
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Speaker 1: as being a wise guy play. We're going to get

326
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Speaker 1: into the Jets in a little bit and just a

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Speaker 1: little foreshadowing. The noise on the Jets right now doesn't

328
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Speaker 1: bother me at all. The noise on. The Giants completely

329
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Speaker 1: bothers me because I think they're so beaten down by

330
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Speaker 1: the fact that Saquan is running for two hundred and

331
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Speaker 1: fifty five yards and they just got rid of their

332
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Speaker 1: best quarterback. I think the players have lost faith in

333
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Speaker 1: management and the players. Malik Nighbors has clearly lost faith

334
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Speaker 1: in Brian Dables play conk. I'm not saying it's not

335
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Speaker 1: the right side. The number says it's the right side.

336
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Speaker 1: I'm trying to sort of cognitively separate when I decide

337
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Speaker 1: playing the right number over rides any noise that I'm

338
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Speaker 1: hearing from the team versus the noise doesn't bother me.

339
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Speaker 1: What is that? What is that mechanism? As you would say,

340
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Speaker 1: I'm overthinking it. Play the fucking number. Yeah, Miami at

341
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Speaker 1: Green Bay. Green Bay is minus three. We jumped on

342
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Speaker 1: it at three and a half. H I don't get it, like,

343
00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:30,760
Speaker 1: why did this move and did we jump on it

344
00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:33,920
Speaker 1: too soon? I get that Jordan Love isn't playing well,

345
00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:37,399
Speaker 1: which could be impacting the line a little bit. And

346
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Speaker 1: I know like perception wise, Tua has been great since

347
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Speaker 1: he came back, but he dominated the Raiders and the

348
00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:51,439
Speaker 1: Patriots and the Raiders were down by five with just

349
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Speaker 1: over three minutes left in the game. And I'm not

350
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Speaker 1: I'm not crediting them for beating the Rams. I think

351
00:18:56,560 --> 00:18:59,679
Speaker 1: the Rams beat themselves in that game. So why is

352
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Speaker 1: this line moving the other direction?

353
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Speaker 2: Simon says, gimme green Bay minus three. Chad, we do

354
00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:12,520
Speaker 2: what s say. Wow, I don't get it. I love

355
00:19:12,560 --> 00:19:15,240
Speaker 2: this number. I think you're nailing it. Though. The general

356
00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:18,720
Speaker 2: public must just love to right now, right everyone's drinking

357
00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:21,680
Speaker 2: the two a cool ad. It's it's understandable that offense

358
00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:23,800
Speaker 2: did look really good and even their defense has looked

359
00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:25,320
Speaker 2: better these last couple of weeks. I'll give them some

360
00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:28,280
Speaker 2: credit for that. Like you know that that Rams win

361
00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:30,000
Speaker 2: has sparked something in them a couple weeks ago, where

362
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Speaker 2: you're right though, they've just been beating up on bad

363
00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:34,280
Speaker 2: teams since then. The Rams might be a bad team.

364
00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:36,840
Speaker 2: So you know, I don't think Green Bay is a

365
00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:40,639
Speaker 2: bad team, to say, playoff team. That's you know, in

366
00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:43,879
Speaker 2: one of the toughest divisions of football. And you know,

367
00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:46,439
Speaker 2: if they've been winning a lot of really tough, ugly games,

368
00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:49,600
Speaker 2: and I agree with you, like that that Bears game

369
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Speaker 2: I think taught them a lot. Not I'm not trying

370
00:19:53,040 --> 00:19:54,800
Speaker 2: to say it taught them a lot about Jordan Love,

371
00:19:54,840 --> 00:19:56,280
Speaker 2: but I think it made them realize they do need

372
00:19:56,320 --> 00:19:59,360
Speaker 2: to just lean on the run, right, that's their bread

373
00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:02,080
Speaker 2: and butter. Jacobs has kind of been the motor for them,

374
00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:06,639
Speaker 2: and that doesn't change for this matchup Miami. You know,

375
00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:08,600
Speaker 2: as good as they are running the ball, I don't

376
00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:10,680
Speaker 2: really think they're a good team at stopping the run,

377
00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:15,000
Speaker 2: and especially when it's cold. And like we talked about

378
00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:18,520
Speaker 2: these trends from Evan, he had some amazing trends just

379
00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:21,080
Speaker 2: about Miami and cold weather. And we know we're being

380
00:20:21,080 --> 00:20:23,840
Speaker 2: it to death, but it's like that's a real thing.

381
00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:26,080
Speaker 2: That team coming from the South up to the north

382
00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:28,760
Speaker 2: and it's gonna be really cold, right. I think they're

383
00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:32,280
Speaker 2: saying it could be in the twenties when this game starts,

384
00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:35,880
Speaker 2: like twenty five twenty six degrees, and you know, Miami

385
00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:40,840
Speaker 2: zero and four straight up. You know, when two is

386
00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:42,919
Speaker 2: playing with them in this cold weather, he's one and

387
00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:46,600
Speaker 2: three against the spread. They're feeling to cover by eighteen

388
00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:49,840
Speaker 2: points per game in those matchups, Like that's not fluky,

389
00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:53,639
Speaker 2: that's a real thing. And to me, the fact we're

390
00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:56,920
Speaker 2: getting minus three. Now. It's just totally about the perception

391
00:20:57,000 --> 00:20:59,680
Speaker 2: of the two quarterbacks. I just think the jerdnal love

392
00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:02,000
Speaker 2: hates going too far at this point, the Tua loves

393
00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:05,720
Speaker 2: getting too much love, and this is the kind of

394
00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:08,200
Speaker 2: a game that they come crashing back down on earth,

395
00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:11,639
Speaker 2: this Miami team, Right, So I'm running to grab that

396
00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:13,960
Speaker 2: minus three. I just I can just say going back

397
00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:16,120
Speaker 2: up to three and a half in the next couple

398
00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:17,720
Speaker 2: hours or maybe the next couple of days.

399
00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:19,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, you can see in the app. I've already bet

400
00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:22,399
Speaker 1: the three and a half. I will as soon as

401
00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:24,919
Speaker 1: we get off the show, as long as it's still around,

402
00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:31,280
Speaker 1: bet the three as well. You mentioned to sort of

403
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:36,960
Speaker 1: against the spread away from home versus winning teams. I

404
00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:40,359
Speaker 1: want to remind people when he beat the Rams, the

405
00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:43,199
Speaker 1: Rams were not a winning team, So Tua going on

406
00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:45,000
Speaker 1: the road to beat the Rams does not count as

407
00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:49,959
Speaker 1: all of a sudden they've reframed who they are. I

408
00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:52,480
Speaker 1: just think, like, this is the spot you bet against them.

409
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:56,880
Speaker 1: I like the matchup, I like the trends. I think

410
00:21:56,880 --> 00:22:01,879
Speaker 1: it's in our favor. Matt Lafleur, excuse me. At home

411
00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:05,959
Speaker 1: twenty three and fourteen, as a favorite. That's sixty one percent.

412
00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:07,320
Speaker 1: Go peck go.

413
00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:13,800
Speaker 3: Went no, it's not jump.

414
00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:22,040
Speaker 1: All right. You mentioned the Chiefs and you said exactly

415
00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:24,200
Speaker 1: what I put in the script. Do we just suck

416
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:26,399
Speaker 1: it up and bet the number? Do we not be

417
00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:30,600
Speaker 1: distracted or dissuaded by noise, perception, past experience, and the

418
00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:33,800
Speaker 1: emotion of it all. Patrick Mahomes is a ten point

419
00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:37,000
Speaker 1: favorite in the division forty five percent, and it's happened

420
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:40,119
Speaker 1: twenty one times for all divisions. By the way, the

421
00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:42,280
Speaker 1: against the spread record for Phasian the spot is forty

422
00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:45,560
Speaker 1: eight percent, so he's actually worse than sort of the

423
00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:51,040
Speaker 1: average for every other division. This number is down from

424
00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:53,359
Speaker 1: thirteen and a half. I don't know if it's going

425
00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:58,679
Speaker 1: to be de Desmond, ridder Aid and O'Connell, ken Stabler.

426
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:01,960
Speaker 1: I think we're just betting the twelve and a half.

427
00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:06,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's they don't feel good about it, but this

428
00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:11,160
Speaker 2: is what we did. It's just playing the number. And

429
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 2: I wanted, honestly to be on the Chiefs, and I

430
00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:14,960
Speaker 2: was trying to find reasons to lie to myself for

431
00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:17,600
Speaker 2: It's like, no, this is the spot to take them,

432
00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:21,400
Speaker 2: but man, they have what three games in the next

433
00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:24,200
Speaker 2: sixteen to fifteen days something crazy where it's like they

434
00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:26,160
Speaker 2: got to play this game, then they got a Saturday game,

435
00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:28,440
Speaker 2: and they have the whatever that is a Wednesday game

436
00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:31,000
Speaker 2: because of Christmas in the next couple weeks, Like December

437
00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:33,160
Speaker 2: is a really weird month. The next twenty five days

438
00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:35,400
Speaker 2: is gonna be very weird for this Chiefs team. So

439
00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:38,399
Speaker 2: we saw Carolina, they let them get back in the

440
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:40,920
Speaker 2: game because they take the foot off the gas. And uh,

441
00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:44,159
Speaker 2: it's not shocking anyone that he's never covered as a

442
00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:46,880
Speaker 2: bigger than a ten point favorite. Mahmes. He just even

443
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:48,920
Speaker 2: when they had all those dominant teams a Tyreek Hill,

444
00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:52,280
Speaker 2: that's pretty shocking. They never covered as a big favorite

445
00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:54,720
Speaker 2: right there there. Whoever, it is four and one. They

446
00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:57,239
Speaker 2: pushed Uh one time at landed right on ten. So

447
00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:00,600
Speaker 2: we talk all the time, we're just taking the number,

448
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:02,959
Speaker 2: taking the value, and yeah, we'll take this Raiders at

449
00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:04,960
Speaker 2: either plus thirteen plus twelve and a half and just

450
00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:07,520
Speaker 2: pray we get a find like a backdoor here on

451
00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:08,760
Speaker 2: like what they did last week.

452
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:10,480
Speaker 1: Look, I think the number is going to go up

453
00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:13,360
Speaker 1: because I think people will come in on Black Friday

454
00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 1: and see, oh my god, the Chiefs are playing the Raiders.

455
00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:20,199
Speaker 1: Are you kidding me? And what? I don't actually think

456
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:22,960
Speaker 1: the Chiefs take the foot off the gas. I think,

457
00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:25,640
Speaker 1: and we've seen this for a couple of years. They're

458
00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:27,880
Speaker 1: just entirely different team in the second half. We even

459
00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:30,679
Speaker 1: saw it against the Bills, Like they go for long

460
00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:35,840
Speaker 1: sustain drives. They have the benefit of Patrick Mahomes who

461
00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:41,160
Speaker 1: converts third downs at an other worldly rate fifty two

462
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 1: point seven percent converting third downs. That is like third

463
00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:49,640
Speaker 1: best this century. I read that on ESPN Dot Calm

464
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:55,640
Speaker 1: this morning. And that allows them to be more conservative

465
00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:58,560
Speaker 1: in their play calling in the second half to bleed

466
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 1: the clock. They know, oh, if the game is close

467
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:04,480
Speaker 1: and they get an opportunity with Patrick Mahomes, there's no

468
00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:06,600
Speaker 1: value in putting themselves in a position to be in

469
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:09,120
Speaker 1: a shootout, or to put themselves in position to make

470
00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:11,359
Speaker 1: bad turnovers that will give the other team an advantage.

471
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 1: So just go slow, and I think that allows teams

472
00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:17,080
Speaker 1: that are big dogs to stay in it for longer.

473
00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 1: That's what I think. What do you think of that?

474
00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 1: That's pretty good.

475
00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:23,720
Speaker 2: It's an interesting theory.

476
00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:27,360
Speaker 1: By the way you say it, it feels a little bit

477
00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:29,880
Speaker 1: like you're like you're patting me on the head.

478
00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:32,800
Speaker 2: Well, they're the best second half team in all football, right, Evan.

479
00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:34,680
Speaker 2: I mean they no one covers more than the Chiefs

480
00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 2: in the second half. They're just they're great to run

481
00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:38,960
Speaker 2: the ball down team's throat and just burn the clock

482
00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 2: and their defensive stout. But I just agree, I do

483
00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:42,960
Speaker 2: agree with what you're saying.

484
00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:47,320
Speaker 1: Okay, it doesn't feel like you support it. I gave

485
00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:49,480
Speaker 1: it a lot of thought and you're like, eh, just

486
00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:55,320
Speaker 1: bet the number. Guess what. It's time for Big Balls

487
00:25:55,520 --> 00:26:01,560
Speaker 1: Better the Week presented by our friends at Tommy John.

488
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:05,040
Speaker 1: If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support.

489
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:07,840
Speaker 1: That's right. I put on my TJ's this morning, my

490
00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:12,560
Speaker 1: favorite pod underwear for the show. Great games start with

491
00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:16,360
Speaker 1: great underwear. Tommy John makes the greatest. They also sent

492
00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:19,280
Speaker 1: us some great swag like the new banner over my

493
00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:24,159
Speaker 1: shoulder and at Tommy John Football that is like the

494
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:29,240
Speaker 1: most grippable football. I cannot wait to rip it outside

495
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:33,240
Speaker 1: in the backyard and just sling this thing. It's it's

496
00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:37,639
Speaker 1: having on my Tommy John's that makes it possible for

497
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:40,040
Speaker 1: me to say that our Big Balls Better of the

498
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 1: Week is going to be the New York Jets plus

499
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:44,960
Speaker 1: two and a half against Seattle.

500
00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:49,040
Speaker 2: This sucks and it's horseshit, But I'm too polite to

501
00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:50,800
Speaker 2: say anything because I'm a class act.

502
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:55,040
Speaker 1: Everything I said about the Giants leaning away from the noise,

503
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:57,760
Speaker 1: I'm leaning into it with the Jets. And I know

504
00:26:57,800 --> 00:26:59,520
Speaker 1: you agree here, I know the wise guys agree. You

505
00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:03,000
Speaker 1: mentioned it, and sharp calls Woody Johnson, the owner of

506
00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:09,120
Speaker 1: the Jets. He's basically entered his Montgomery Burns slash George

507
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:15,560
Speaker 1: Steinbrenner phase of his ownership reign. He's done being the

508
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:19,160
Speaker 1: quiet guy. He doesn't say anything wearing his Jets hat.

509
00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:25,119
Speaker 1: He is firing his coaches without telling one. He is

510
00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:30,200
Speaker 1: trading for DeVante Adams without telling anyone. He's thinking about

511
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:37,080
Speaker 1: benching Aaron Rodgers the coup de gras. Last week, he

512
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:42,879
Speaker 1: fired hiss GM after landing on the practice field in

513
00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:47,359
Speaker 1: a helicopter. At that moment, the GM Joe Douglas joked

514
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 1: to a coach he was standing next to, if I

515
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:53,600
Speaker 1: don't come back, it's been a pleasure to serve with you,

516
00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:58,240
Speaker 1: and then he did actually get fired. The helicopter landing

517
00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:00,359
Speaker 1: is kind of my favorite part of all this, Like

518
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:05,919
Speaker 1: fuck this noise. Literally, I'm so done with all you people.

519
00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:13,560
Speaker 1: I think you know, off of Bye, I think it's chaos.

520
00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:16,200
Speaker 1: No reason to back Geno Smith off at two games

521
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:20,440
Speaker 1: in which he's like slinging red zone interceptions but still

522
00:28:21,080 --> 00:28:25,600
Speaker 1: making valiant comebacks in the final two minutes. Give me

523
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:27,480
Speaker 1: the Jets. Jets, Jet Jets.

524
00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:32,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is such a spot we can't avoid. I'm

525
00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:35,120
Speaker 2: with you. It feels a little sick, right, It's it's

526
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:37,480
Speaker 2: like Baine saying we were born in the darkness. It's

527
00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:40,480
Speaker 2: it's really a sick play. But it's a number. We

528
00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:43,680
Speaker 2: have to take this numbers move too much off Seattle

529
00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:46,360
Speaker 2: when that yes, their defense played really well, but me

530
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:47,960
Speaker 2: and Chat both agreed. I felt like that was more

531
00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:51,600
Speaker 2: about Kyler than anything else. I did go back watched

532
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:54,080
Speaker 2: Out twenty two and he did have guys open, and

533
00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:56,880
Speaker 2: when you do break it down, it's like, Okay, this

534
00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:59,000
Speaker 2: Jets team, for all that the hell is going on

535
00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:00,840
Speaker 2: with them, they still have an all that can move

536
00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 2: the ball. I know that people are just down on Rogers, right.

537
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:08,920
Speaker 2: They think they're either gonna cut them and release them

538
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:11,719
Speaker 2: just because the owner hates them and everything terrible going on.

539
00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:16,040
Speaker 2: I totally get the public reception right now, but we

540
00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:18,240
Speaker 2: don't really think that way. We're really just playing the numbers.

541
00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:20,240
Speaker 2: And the fact that this has moved two and a

542
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:23,600
Speaker 2: half because it's his negative vibes with the Jets is

543
00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 2: a very bizarre movement here and makes total sense of

544
00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:30,280
Speaker 2: the public is just hammering this number. It's one of

545
00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:32,280
Speaker 2: the more bet on sides right now early in the week,

546
00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:35,360
Speaker 2: which is shocking because usually people don't really bet the Sundays,

547
00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:38,080
Speaker 2: right They're gonna put all their money into the Thursday

548
00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:40,160
Speaker 2: games and then they'll roll it over into the Sundays.

549
00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:43,160
Speaker 2: But that's how bad this Jets use. Guys are already

550
00:29:43,360 --> 00:29:46,320
Speaker 2: putting their parlays and their teasers together with this Seahawks team,

551
00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:50,640
Speaker 2: and I just look at this matchup. Is the Jets

552
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:53,360
Speaker 2: ris bad public perception? I know they're three and eight,

553
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:56,400
Speaker 2: but it's like after the bye week, Chad, like you

554
00:29:56,480 --> 00:29:59,760
Speaker 2: just said, isn't this it Like, isn't this their last stand?

555
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:02,560
Speaker 2: I mean at this point with the number, it's just

556
00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:04,360
Speaker 2: it feels like it's too good to pass on in

557
00:30:04,520 --> 00:30:06,680
Speaker 2: just the matchup wise as well, I think there's a

558
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:08,840
Speaker 2: lot of ways they can actually get get after Genos

559
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:11,400
Speaker 2: Smith and offensively that they can move the ball against

560
00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:15,120
Speaker 2: the Seahawks defense. So yeah, give me them at plus

561
00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:16,440
Speaker 2: two and a half every time.

562
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:19,880
Speaker 1: I mean, that's terrible. I know we haven't really been

563
00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:23,320
Speaker 1: on the Jets at all since almost Week one.

564
00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:24,680
Speaker 2: Took a nice break from them.

565
00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:27,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, we loved them week one against the Niners, and

566
00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:32,040
Speaker 1: we've sort of walked away from them. It's funny how

567
00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:35,760
Speaker 1: we both sort of felt like this might be the time.

568
00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 1: To me, this is it's as much a bet against

569
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:42,400
Speaker 1: Gino in Seattle. I don't think we really know who

570
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:44,680
Speaker 1: this team is yet, and I don't know that we're

571
00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 1: taking a lot from a last second win against a

572
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:55,400
Speaker 1: very challenged San Francisco team that was impacted directly by

573
00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:58,000
Speaker 1: Nick Bosa being out of that game. And that was

574
00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:01,400
Speaker 1: the difference. Like if you go back and look, they were,

575
00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:03,720
Speaker 1: they were in good shape in that game. He was

576
00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 1: playing great, Gino was playing confused and discombobulated, and then

577
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:11,840
Speaker 1: he goes out and Gino gets that last two minute

578
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:14,880
Speaker 1: drive and they win the game. And last week, like

579
00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 1: he was not good, it was the Cardinals who were bad.

580
00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:21,040
Speaker 1: So I think they're getting they're getting a bounce for

581
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:29,360
Speaker 1: being a public perception bounce, not a performance bounce. Simon.

582
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:32,480
Speaker 1: Speaking of performance, we're in the final weeks of the

583
00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:38,640
Speaker 1: NFL season, good or bad. This is when reputations are made.

584
00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 1: If you want to earn the reputation as an elite

585
00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:47,800
Speaker 1: gift giver, then you need to gift the ultimate gift

586
00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:53,920
Speaker 1: of comfort and confidence, the gift of Tommy John. Black

587
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:58,680
Speaker 1: Friday is this week and a cornucopia of comfort or waits.

588
00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 1: Let's break out our holiday gifts lists. Let's identify those

589
00:32:04,560 --> 00:32:08,520
Speaker 1: lucky men and women who deserve the perfect gift, the

590
00:32:08,560 --> 00:32:15,640
Speaker 1: perfect fit and the silky smooth support of Tommy John underwear. Simon,

591
00:32:16,320 --> 00:32:19,520
Speaker 1: why will you be giving the gift of Tommy John

592
00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 1: this season?

593
00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 2: It's the gift that last Chad.

594
00:32:23,320 --> 00:32:25,680
Speaker 1: Listen, before the show, you were talking about how much

595
00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:29,320
Speaker 1: you liked Tommy John. I know you're loving it. The

596
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:32,640
Speaker 1: Black Friday Sale has begun. If you want to be

597
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Speaker 1: the goat, the greatest gifter of all time, head to

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Speaker 1: in their Cyber Monday sale. These are the lowest prices

600
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602
00:32:55,080 --> 00:33:01,480
Speaker 1: dot com. Slash Favorites Pittsburgh at Cincinnati numbers at two

603
00:33:01,520 --> 00:33:05,280
Speaker 1: and a half. What's most surprising to me about this, Simon,

604
00:33:05,480 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 1: is that we questioned betting Mike Tomlin as a dog

605
00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:14,920
Speaker 1: on the road off of the loss. The number touched

606
00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:17,640
Speaker 1: three for a minute on Monday. I bet at three.

607
00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:21,920
Speaker 1: You can see it in the app. Am. I you

608
00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:24,760
Speaker 1: would tell me not to overthink, but you and I

609
00:33:24,760 --> 00:33:27,160
Speaker 1: actually haven't talked about this game at all, and I

610
00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:31,280
Speaker 1: can't tell from your expression as I normally can when

611
00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:32,320
Speaker 1: you're all in with me or.

612
00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:35,200
Speaker 2: Not get them ready to take the failed every series.

613
00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:45,280
Speaker 4: I'm not all in, but I am betting it, but

614
00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 4: I'm there are a little hesitation here with me.

615
00:33:47,600 --> 00:33:49,960
Speaker 2: With Pittsburgh. It's like when do we get off the

616
00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:52,040
Speaker 2: train that we've been riding all season because they had

617
00:33:52,040 --> 00:33:53,680
Speaker 2: been really good to us, and we fade them last

618
00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:56,120
Speaker 2: week and it was a nice spot and I think

619
00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:58,840
Speaker 2: we even mean you joked about like a lot of

620
00:33:58,840 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 2: those games that we bet them on, it was really

621
00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:02,840
Speaker 2: about the Tomlin and the number in the spot, and

622
00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:05,280
Speaker 2: it's like, we don't know how we covered those numbers.

623
00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:07,960
Speaker 2: It just got there. We feel very fortunate to get there,

624
00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:11,919
Speaker 2: and I think most Pittsburgh's fans feels fortunate. But yeah,

625
00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:14,480
Speaker 2: the fact that, you know whatever, Cincinnati is four and

626
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:17,280
Speaker 2: seven and they're a three point favorite here is pretty

627
00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:20,480
Speaker 2: telling where it's like they just know this division is

628
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:22,720
Speaker 2: really weird, where it like, doesn't you throw the records

629
00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:24,879
Speaker 2: out right, and it's all about the matchups and that's

630
00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:27,160
Speaker 2: what they're kind of banking on here. So if you

631
00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:29,040
Speaker 2: can stuck at the plus three on Pittsburgh, I would

632
00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:32,560
Speaker 2: take it, you know, I just I don't want to

633
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:34,400
Speaker 2: be backing since even at two and a half, I

634
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:36,880
Speaker 2: just I feel more confident in Pittsburgh. I trust the

635
00:34:37,160 --> 00:34:39,480
Speaker 2: trust and number, I trust what they have, which is

636
00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:42,080
Speaker 2: a really good defense and offense that with Russell Wilson

637
00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:44,399
Speaker 2: as a move in the ball. Like for the most part,

638
00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:47,200
Speaker 2: I know obviously last week wasn't their best game, but

639
00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:49,600
Speaker 2: like that was just a fishy, short week Thursday game.

640
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:51,439
Speaker 2: So that's what I might having a hard time. I'm

641
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:53,120
Speaker 2: not trying to react to just that one game. And

642
00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:56,080
Speaker 2: just like you said, trust Tomlin in this spot against

643
00:34:56,120 --> 00:34:58,640
Speaker 2: the Bengals team that you know, as great as Joe

644
00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:02,000
Speaker 2: Burrow has been They've been overrated all season, and like

645
00:35:02,040 --> 00:35:04,439
Speaker 2: the number reflects that. Like every week for the most part,

646
00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:07,399
Speaker 2: people have come in on their side and just been disappointment,

647
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:09,719
Speaker 2: and they don't care. They come back the next week

648
00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:12,160
Speaker 2: just because Joe Burrow is just putting up video game numbers.

649
00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:15,360
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's all about the number, right, So shop

650
00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:16,640
Speaker 2: around find that plus.

651
00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:20,200
Speaker 1: Three Towlin is the most profitable coach as a dog

652
00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:24,200
Speaker 1: the past twenty years, covering it a sixty two percent

653
00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:29,000
Speaker 1: clip on the road, same is true, same number as

654
00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:32,360
Speaker 1: a dog in the division. On the road, the number

655
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:37,600
Speaker 1: goes up to sixty four percent when the spread is

656
00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:41,640
Speaker 1: between one and three. If this was three, I'd make

657
00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:42,680
Speaker 1: it my exact decision.

658
00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:43,080
Speaker 3: I know.

659
00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:44,840
Speaker 2: I'm so bummed to drop down because that would have

660
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:47,440
Speaker 2: been right right on the nose. That'd been a great pick.

661
00:35:47,680 --> 00:35:50,440
Speaker 1: It would have been the exact number that I wanted

662
00:35:50,440 --> 00:35:53,360
Speaker 1: it to be at. You gotta check the numbers, folks,

663
00:35:53,680 --> 00:35:56,640
Speaker 1: set the alerts in the Action Network app. It may

664
00:35:56,680 --> 00:35:59,359
Speaker 1: get back there. I have a feeling if it gets

665
00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:01,960
Speaker 1: to three going to be one o'clock in the morning

666
00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:04,719
Speaker 1: when only people like Simon are checking and wise guys

667
00:36:04,719 --> 00:36:07,920
Speaker 1: will buy it at three again, but be on the lookout.

668
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:10,880
Speaker 2: So bit we set responsibility for that. We will not

669
00:36:10,920 --> 00:36:13,440
Speaker 2: go gently. We're going to unleash hell here in December.

670
00:36:13,920 --> 00:36:16,160
Speaker 2: We're gonna go into tack mode because we have to,

671
00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:17,440
Speaker 2: because that's what's required.

672
00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:22,040
Speaker 1: Indie at New England, really interesting game. The line opened

673
00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:25,799
Speaker 1: at Colts one and a half. It moved quickly. For

674
00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:27,279
Speaker 1: the record, I bet it at two and a half.

675
00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:29,320
Speaker 1: I wish we had kind of discussed this on Sunday.

676
00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:32,200
Speaker 1: Do you feel like we missed it? I kind of

677
00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:33,920
Speaker 1: feel like we missed it on Sunday. I don't know why.

678
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 1: Maybe we were a little bit sort of clouded by

679
00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:42,400
Speaker 1: our faith in the Colts being shattered against the Lions.

680
00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:45,560
Speaker 1: But I feel like we missed the opportunity to buy

681
00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:46,480
Speaker 1: it a little bit shorter.

682
00:36:47,520 --> 00:36:48,880
Speaker 2: I mean there's still two and a halves out there

683
00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:51,080
Speaker 2: if you like the Colts. I got no issue with it.

684
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:53,399
Speaker 2: I got no read on this game. I'll be honest, Chad,

685
00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:55,360
Speaker 2: like I want to take the Colts with you, especially

686
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:57,359
Speaker 2: at two and a half. It feels a good number,

687
00:36:57,400 --> 00:37:00,600
Speaker 2: but it's like another thing where it's like why is

688
00:37:00,640 --> 00:37:03,080
Speaker 2: this not three three and a half? Like who is

689
00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:05,759
Speaker 2: backing the Patriots after what just happened in Miami. Like,

690
00:37:05,800 --> 00:37:08,400
Speaker 2: it's only going to be professionals, not anyone on the

691
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:10,799
Speaker 2: public side. So it's just a little bit of a

692
00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:14,080
Speaker 2: fishy line. That's maybe my hesitation here because I think

693
00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:16,680
Speaker 2: the Colts are a better coach team, a better team

694
00:37:16,719 --> 00:37:19,000
Speaker 2: on the field. Like it just feels like a nice

695
00:37:19,040 --> 00:37:21,879
Speaker 2: spot to back this Colts team, especially after what six

696
00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:23,799
Speaker 2: point performance against one of the best teams in all

697
00:37:23,800 --> 00:37:27,960
Speaker 2: of football. But we've seen teams that played Detroit for

698
00:37:27,960 --> 00:37:30,640
Speaker 2: some reason, they're just beat the hell the following week

699
00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:33,720
Speaker 2: and they've struggled this year. It's crazy that other teams

700
00:37:33,719 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 2: just beat the hell out of them like that. So yeah,

701
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:37,880
Speaker 2: if you came to me Sunday morning, you were like,

702
00:37:37,920 --> 00:37:39,960
Speaker 2: it's still two and a half. I really love the

703
00:37:39,960 --> 00:37:42,600
Speaker 2: Colts here. I love this matchup. I'm not going to

704
00:37:42,680 --> 00:37:44,680
Speaker 2: fight John it just because I've loved this Colts team

705
00:37:44,719 --> 00:37:46,719
Speaker 2: all season. It's really about playing the number two where

706
00:37:46,719 --> 00:37:48,920
Speaker 2: if it's under three, I agree with you that the

707
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:51,600
Speaker 2: value is on the Colts here. I just I haven't

708
00:37:51,600 --> 00:37:53,520
Speaker 2: pulled the trigger on either side betting this one.

709
00:37:55,360 --> 00:38:00,640
Speaker 1: I guess I look at this as the Colts against

710
00:38:00,640 --> 00:38:03,720
Speaker 1: the best team in the NFL, not as the Colts

711
00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:07,000
Speaker 1: being a bad team. Yeah, we know they're effective on

712
00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:09,440
Speaker 1: the ground. We know they have an offensive line that

713
00:38:09,560 --> 00:38:12,359
Speaker 1: is top five in run blocking metrics. We even saw

714
00:38:12,480 --> 00:38:17,840
Speaker 1: like Anthony Richardson dominated in that first quarter as a runner.

715
00:38:18,600 --> 00:38:22,759
Speaker 1: And sure we've been happily surprised with Drake May it's

716
00:38:22,840 --> 00:38:25,239
Speaker 1: throwing the ball, but the Colt secondary is actually really good,

717
00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:27,760
Speaker 1: like top five and deep coverage, which is where Drake

718
00:38:28,280 --> 00:38:32,360
Speaker 1: does his damage. Seventh in coverage when they blit ninth

719
00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:36,800
Speaker 1: against play action. Play action is what helps rookie quarterbacks

720
00:38:36,800 --> 00:38:40,480
Speaker 1: the most. If New England could effectively run the ball,

721
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:43,719
Speaker 1: but they can't and their bottom five and stopping their

722
00:38:43,800 --> 00:38:46,440
Speaker 1: run and it's the worst pass defense in the league,

723
00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:49,880
Speaker 1: and it's the lowest ring team according to DVA DVOA.

724
00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:53,279
Speaker 1: I'm so close to making it the exact decision, but

725
00:38:53,440 --> 00:38:55,840
Speaker 1: I'm not doing it. Second game in a row. I

726
00:38:55,960 --> 00:38:58,960
Speaker 1: like them, I like them, I've bet them. You can

727
00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:01,360
Speaker 1: see it in the app with the Steelers and the Packers,

728
00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:06,480
Speaker 1: but it's not the exact decision. Arizona Minnesota three and

729
00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:09,560
Speaker 1: a half. I guess I feel like this is the

730
00:39:09,600 --> 00:39:11,920
Speaker 1: exact right line. I think the Vikings are better across

731
00:39:11,960 --> 00:39:15,959
Speaker 1: every metric. The line reflects it. I can't I can't

732
00:39:16,000 --> 00:39:19,399
Speaker 1: find a reason to want to back Kyler here, can

733
00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:20,560
Speaker 1: you No?

734
00:39:20,640 --> 00:39:21,840
Speaker 2: And I have it at four and a half. So

735
00:39:21,920 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 2: it's like, okay, model likes the Vikings. I kind of

736
00:39:24,640 --> 00:39:26,480
Speaker 2: like the Vikings as well. On the spot, it's like

737
00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:29,719
Speaker 2: we've seen this Cardinals team. They are good, but a

738
00:39:29,719 --> 00:39:31,680
Speaker 2: lot of their wins, like we joke about, they feel

739
00:39:31,719 --> 00:39:33,560
Speaker 2: like they've been a little lucky about the spots they've

740
00:39:33,560 --> 00:39:36,440
Speaker 2: been in that when they do face we're the good teams,

741
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:40,000
Speaker 2: they kind of get dominated, right And you know, not

742
00:39:40,080 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 2: that I'm saying Stocksford a good team last week, I think,

743
00:39:42,280 --> 00:39:44,360
Speaker 2: you know, like I said, Kyler hadn't missed opportunities. But

744
00:39:44,480 --> 00:39:47,360
Speaker 2: this Vikings team, I've come around on it. We're like

745
00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:49,920
Speaker 2: they're a good team. Like San Darnold in that game

746
00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:53,960
Speaker 2: against the Bears, he was next to flawless, Like he

747
00:39:54,160 --> 00:39:55,919
Speaker 2: really played an amazing game.

748
00:39:56,239 --> 00:40:00,600
Speaker 1: He was great, actually was better, he was better after

749
00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:04,319
Speaker 1: he got knocked out for the play. Nick Marlins comes in,

750
00:40:04,440 --> 00:40:07,600
Speaker 1: converts the first down. Sam Donald comes limping back on

751
00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:13,440
Speaker 1: and he was fucking throwing darts. And dimes and lasers.

752
00:40:14,239 --> 00:40:16,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I love the call by Kimin o'contoo, and like

753
00:40:16,200 --> 00:40:18,080
Speaker 2: you know, they're bringing the backup quarterback and he just

754
00:40:18,160 --> 00:40:20,960
Speaker 2: has a really perfect play out up for an easy

755
00:40:21,040 --> 00:40:21,840
Speaker 2: read pass.

756
00:40:22,520 --> 00:40:23,520
Speaker 1: He's such a good coach.

757
00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:26,680
Speaker 2: Now he's in his back, He's really good. And that

758
00:40:26,760 --> 00:40:28,920
Speaker 2: was another game where Justin Jefferson was shut down. Right,

759
00:40:28,920 --> 00:40:30,400
Speaker 2: I think he had two catches total.

760
00:40:30,920 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 1: Jalen Johnson, Yeah, but like he still who says Jalen

761
00:40:34,200 --> 00:40:35,640
Speaker 1: Johnson's not top one hundred.

762
00:40:37,000 --> 00:40:40,080
Speaker 2: Sam Donald still had a great game, which is just like, Okay,

763
00:40:40,120 --> 00:40:43,319
Speaker 2: he's using all his weapons. And we haven't talked much

764
00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:45,359
Speaker 2: about TJ hockets are coming back for that offense. How

765
00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:49,080
Speaker 2: big of a deal that was. So Yeah, I think

766
00:40:49,080 --> 00:40:51,120
Speaker 2: they're a better team. Like you just said, the number,

767
00:40:51,840 --> 00:40:54,080
Speaker 2: I agree with. It does feel right, makes sense. Like

768
00:40:54,200 --> 00:40:56,920
Speaker 2: Kyler was a dog, He's actually been pretty profitable in

769
00:40:56,960 --> 00:40:59,640
Speaker 2: these type of spots, especially when it's above a field goal.

770
00:41:00,400 --> 00:41:02,640
Speaker 2: But I do think that they're gonna struggle against his

771
00:41:02,719 --> 00:41:06,080
Speaker 2: Vikings defense and offensively, I just trust his Vikings team

772
00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:08,400
Speaker 2: be able to move the ball, especially against a Cardinals

773
00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:10,719
Speaker 2: team that we've seen this season, like they run that zone.

774
00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:13,120
Speaker 2: They make it really tough to score in the red zones.

775
00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:15,480
Speaker 2: But when they go against really good coaching that can

776
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:17,919
Speaker 2: scheme things up, like we stuck with Kevin O'Connell, they'll

777
00:41:17,960 --> 00:41:19,600
Speaker 2: find holes. He's gonna find ways for them to begin

778
00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:21,120
Speaker 2: the end zone. They had been doing it all season.

779
00:41:21,200 --> 00:41:23,719
Speaker 2: So yeah, to me, numbers three four and a half.

780
00:41:23,719 --> 00:41:25,520
Speaker 2: It's three and a half. I'm gonna take that value

781
00:41:25,520 --> 00:41:26,560
Speaker 2: on the Vikings right now.

782
00:41:27,040 --> 00:41:30,880
Speaker 1: It did come down a tick. It was it for

783
00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:33,759
Speaker 1: so a little bit of money came in on the

784
00:41:35,080 --> 00:41:37,640
Speaker 1: on the Cardinals there at four and moved down to

785
00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:40,120
Speaker 1: three and a half. But I think I agree with you,

786
00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:43,040
Speaker 1: not a contest play if it's if you have to

787
00:41:43,040 --> 00:41:48,360
Speaker 1: bet it, bet the Vikings. The next game Tennessee at Washington.

788
00:41:48,400 --> 00:41:52,840
Speaker 1: It's at five and a half. So frustrating. This was

789
00:41:52,840 --> 00:41:57,480
Speaker 1: at seven right before we went on the air on Sunday.

790
00:41:57,600 --> 00:41:59,720
Speaker 1: I wrote it down on our list to talk about

791
00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:03,719
Speaker 1: on Sunday, and while we were on the air, it

792
00:42:03,800 --> 00:42:06,680
Speaker 1: had moved from six and a half to six. I

793
00:42:06,680 --> 00:42:08,680
Speaker 1: wanted up for the record. We could clip it if

794
00:42:08,680 --> 00:42:12,040
Speaker 1: we have to. You said I was sharp. If you

795
00:42:12,120 --> 00:42:14,719
Speaker 1: remember saying that. Can I get confirmation.

796
00:42:14,719 --> 00:42:15,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, because you were ahead of the movement.

797
00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:17,680
Speaker 1: That was a good call, was ahead of the move

798
00:42:18,000 --> 00:42:21,719
Speaker 1: I feel like I need a little bit more positive affirmation.

799
00:42:22,120 --> 00:42:24,919
Speaker 1: You know, Matt Mitchell was yelling at me all morning, So.

800
00:42:25,200 --> 00:42:27,000
Speaker 2: Uh, you're a star, Chad. Don't worry about that.

801
00:42:27,239 --> 00:42:29,080
Speaker 1: Oh my god, you didn't have to say that. That's

802
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:34,560
Speaker 1: that's too much. Chad Milman is proud of himself. Now

803
00:42:34,560 --> 00:42:37,560
Speaker 1: it's down to five and a half. And look, I

804
00:42:37,560 --> 00:42:40,560
Speaker 1: think there are so many reasons to fade the commanders here.

805
00:42:41,000 --> 00:42:44,920
Speaker 1: We've hit the cliff cliff, the cliff Kingsbury second half

806
00:42:44,960 --> 00:42:49,359
Speaker 1: of the season where his teams have historically fallen off

807
00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:52,520
Speaker 1: the cliff. And you know, I love Bill Barnwell. If

808
00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:55,640
Speaker 1: you want more details on this, read Barnwell's column from

809
00:42:55,680 --> 00:42:59,480
Speaker 1: Monday on ESPN dot com. He went through this whole

810
00:43:00,200 --> 00:43:05,360
Speaker 1: me of reasoning that shows the cliff cliff. It's all circumstantial,

811
00:43:05,600 --> 00:43:10,239
Speaker 1: right Like in college, the cliff cliff happened because he

812
00:43:10,280 --> 00:43:13,319
Speaker 1: went from playing bad teams to playing good teams in

813
00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:17,080
Speaker 1: his conference. In the pros with Kyler, he went from

814
00:43:17,120 --> 00:43:19,680
Speaker 1: having Kyler to Kyler being consistently injured in the second

815
00:43:19,680 --> 00:43:21,440
Speaker 1: half of the season and not always having him, so

816
00:43:22,040 --> 00:43:26,160
Speaker 1: you can see the logic. But whatever the reason, it

817
00:43:26,320 --> 00:43:29,960
Speaker 1: always happens. And now Jaden Daniels is struggling. So part

818
00:43:29,960 --> 00:43:31,520
Speaker 1: of that has to be he's not making the right

819
00:43:31,560 --> 00:43:35,399
Speaker 1: adjustments for his team and the personnel that he has,

820
00:43:35,880 --> 00:43:38,120
Speaker 1: and they continue to do the things that he might

821
00:43:38,480 --> 00:43:41,959
Speaker 1: scheme up for the best players he has. Maybe Jaden

822
00:43:42,000 --> 00:43:44,960
Speaker 1: Daniels struggling because of his rib injury, the running game

823
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:49,520
Speaker 1: is struggling. We have to ask ourselves, Simon, maybe I'm

824
00:43:49,520 --> 00:43:52,320
Speaker 1: trying to convince you is a defense that is twenty

825
00:43:52,320 --> 00:43:57,479
Speaker 1: first in past rush, twenty ninth in coverage, good enough

826
00:43:57,480 --> 00:44:02,480
Speaker 1: to force Will Levis into making enough stakes. That's the

827
00:44:02,600 --> 00:44:04,880
Speaker 1: only reason we wouldn't bet the Titans is Will let us.

828
00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:12,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is uh the Will Levis. You know, he

829
00:44:12,200 --> 00:44:13,920
Speaker 2: just throws deep like there is no other way to

830
00:44:13,920 --> 00:44:16,920
Speaker 2: describe but his is playing style. He's either getting sacked,

831
00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:20,120
Speaker 2: throwing a pick six, or throwing a perfect dime twenty

832
00:44:20,120 --> 00:44:22,799
Speaker 2: five yards downfield, like you know on a rope or

833
00:44:22,800 --> 00:44:24,799
Speaker 2: a touchdown. There there's no one between. So you just

834
00:44:24,840 --> 00:44:27,680
Speaker 2: said it. I honestly thought we would get to six

835
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:29,879
Speaker 2: six and a half just because of what we talked

836
00:44:29,880 --> 00:44:33,240
Speaker 2: about where it's like the general public guy thought would think, Okay,

837
00:44:33,239 --> 00:44:35,880
Speaker 2: Will Love is coming off a win, easy spot to

838
00:44:35,880 --> 00:44:38,560
Speaker 2: fade him and take a Washington team that you know,

839
00:44:38,760 --> 00:44:40,000
Speaker 2: I said earlier in the year they were one of

840
00:44:40,000 --> 00:44:43,480
Speaker 2: my favorite teams to watch. But we talked that the

841
00:44:43,840 --> 00:44:46,160
Speaker 2: way he was playing, Jaye Daniels was looked like a

842
00:44:46,160 --> 00:44:48,399
Speaker 2: guy who had never been hit before in the NFL. Right,

843
00:44:48,760 --> 00:44:51,440
Speaker 2: he was so calm, cool in the pocket, took what

844
00:44:51,520 --> 00:44:53,400
Speaker 2: the defense would give him, either run it or have

845
00:44:53,600 --> 00:44:56,279
Speaker 2: some amazing play where he put the ball downfield. Now

846
00:44:56,320 --> 00:44:58,719
Speaker 2: he looks like someone that's like every time he's thinking

847
00:44:58,760 --> 00:45:01,600
Speaker 2: about taking the ball on he's just like, do I

848
00:45:01,640 --> 00:45:03,880
Speaker 2: want to break my ribs again? Is this worth the

849
00:45:03,960 --> 00:45:07,479
Speaker 2: scramble here? And he's in between different reads And even

850
00:45:07,520 --> 00:45:10,399
Speaker 2: that game against Dallas, like he didn't get going until

851
00:45:10,400 --> 00:45:12,160
Speaker 2: they put him in the two minute drill offense, which

852
00:45:12,239 --> 00:45:13,759
Speaker 2: again I don't get why they don't just run all

853
00:45:13,800 --> 00:45:15,440
Speaker 2: the time. He looks so much more comfortable when they

854
00:45:15,480 --> 00:45:18,319
Speaker 2: spread everyone out and let him kind of dictate the

855
00:45:18,320 --> 00:45:21,480
Speaker 2: way the offense is going to run. Yeah, this is

856
00:45:22,560 --> 00:45:25,440
Speaker 2: I guess my hesitation is just the Will Loves factor.

857
00:45:25,520 --> 00:45:27,560
Speaker 2: Chad but you just now it's like playing let's just

858
00:45:27,560 --> 00:45:29,960
Speaker 2: play this number. This number should be closer to three

859
00:45:29,960 --> 00:45:32,319
Speaker 2: and a half. Four. This is not this washing team

860
00:45:32,320 --> 00:45:34,040
Speaker 2: they were early in the year. They don't deserve this

861
00:45:34,160 --> 00:45:36,520
Speaker 2: much respect that they're getting still from the bookmakers. So

862
00:45:37,120 --> 00:45:39,719
Speaker 2: unfortunately we missed the six. But I would still take

863
00:45:39,719 --> 00:45:40,839
Speaker 2: this down to three and a half.

864
00:45:42,880 --> 00:45:47,960
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm so this was top two for my

865
00:45:48,080 --> 00:45:49,040
Speaker 1: executive decision.

866
00:45:49,640 --> 00:45:55,880
Speaker 2: Holy shit, pick one already, all right, I'm doing it.

867
00:45:56,000 --> 00:45:59,520
Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans exec decision plus five and a half.

868
00:46:00,840 --> 00:46:04,880
Speaker 2: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible? Are you

869
00:46:04,880 --> 00:46:05,520
Speaker 2: av your honors?

870
00:46:05,719 --> 00:46:06,560
Speaker 3: Text to kill number?

871
00:46:07,640 --> 00:46:12,160
Speaker 1: Executive decision, let's freaking do it. Gonna play the number.

872
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:16,520
Speaker 1: Houston at Jacksonville. You mentioned Jacksonville was a wise guy

873
00:46:16,560 --> 00:46:19,000
Speaker 1: played here. The numbers come down. Look, if we were

874
00:46:19,040 --> 00:46:21,560
Speaker 1: betting every game, we would take the Jags. We are

875
00:46:21,600 --> 00:46:24,760
Speaker 1: not betting every game. I'm having a hard time seeing

876
00:46:24,800 --> 00:46:27,880
Speaker 1: it with Mac Jones, even off a bye. This is

877
00:46:27,920 --> 00:46:30,680
Speaker 1: a dreadful, dreadful team. I know the number is too big.

878
00:46:30,719 --> 00:46:34,480
Speaker 1: I know Houston's struggling, but they did get Will Anderson back.

879
00:46:34,560 --> 00:46:37,719
Speaker 1: They did sack Will Levis eight times last week in

880
00:46:37,760 --> 00:46:40,200
Speaker 1: the first half or however many times it was. And

881
00:46:40,440 --> 00:46:44,680
Speaker 1: unlike will Levis, mac Jones is terrible throwing the ball downfield.

882
00:46:44,680 --> 00:46:48,080
Speaker 1: He has no redeeming qualities as a quarterback. So I'm

883
00:46:48,080 --> 00:46:49,320
Speaker 1: struggling with this one.

884
00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:53,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, which is understandable. It's honestly to me about playing

885
00:46:53,640 --> 00:46:55,800
Speaker 2: the number in this Jags team, how they've been historically

886
00:46:55,800 --> 00:46:59,200
Speaker 2: against Houston, right even when they had bad players and

887
00:46:59,320 --> 00:47:02,160
Speaker 2: bad quarters, and you know, they're one of the worst

888
00:47:02,160 --> 00:47:04,080
Speaker 2: teams on football. I mean even the Minshew days, it

889
00:47:04,080 --> 00:47:06,919
Speaker 2: feels like they would play pretty well against this Houston team.

890
00:47:06,960 --> 00:47:09,960
Speaker 2: I could be miss risk for memering. But you know,

891
00:47:10,040 --> 00:47:13,160
Speaker 2: the number, like you said, has come down, So I'm

892
00:47:13,200 --> 00:47:14,400
Speaker 2: not going to force you to put it in check

893
00:47:14,440 --> 00:47:15,960
Speaker 2: because I did get the best of the number. And

894
00:47:16,000 --> 00:47:18,680
Speaker 2: it's like, I'm not going to force it, but can

895
00:47:18,760 --> 00:47:20,319
Speaker 2: I make it? Force it into the money line? Rob

896
00:47:20,320 --> 00:47:22,239
Speaker 2: and Robin like, can we please take the Jags on

897
00:47:22,280 --> 00:47:25,960
Speaker 2: the money line? Coach? Totally this defense, this this division

898
00:47:25,960 --> 00:47:28,200
Speaker 2: to me is totally wonky up in the air, where

899
00:47:28,280 --> 00:47:32,600
Speaker 2: every team has issues and red flags and things you

900
00:47:32,600 --> 00:47:36,560
Speaker 2: can kind of attack and expose. And right now, this

901
00:47:36,600 --> 00:47:39,160
Speaker 2: Houston team, you would think this would be the perfect

902
00:47:39,160 --> 00:47:41,120
Speaker 2: spot to them to get back on track. But we've

903
00:47:41,160 --> 00:47:44,440
Speaker 2: seen it now where CJ's is not great as a favorite,

904
00:47:44,640 --> 00:47:46,879
Speaker 2: he's just he just does not cover as he does

905
00:47:46,920 --> 00:47:50,200
Speaker 2: when he's a dog usually, So you know that's that's

906
00:47:50,239 --> 00:47:53,760
Speaker 2: kind of been his his problem this season is he's

907
00:47:53,800 --> 00:47:56,760
Speaker 2: a guy who you know, one play he'll look great

908
00:47:56,800 --> 00:47:59,120
Speaker 2: and have the perfect deep ball to Nico Collins and

909
00:47:59,160 --> 00:48:02,600
Speaker 2: the next one was like makes inexcusable picks in his

910
00:48:02,640 --> 00:48:04,960
Speaker 2: own territory with thirty seconds left in the half. It's

911
00:48:05,040 --> 00:48:08,239
Speaker 2: like he was more veteran like last year than he

912
00:48:08,280 --> 00:48:09,960
Speaker 2: has been this year. This year he's been more happy

913
00:48:10,000 --> 00:48:13,000
Speaker 2: feet panic, not really sinking into the offense, trusting where

914
00:48:13,040 --> 00:48:15,640
Speaker 2: that could because he's still taking a lot of hits

915
00:48:15,719 --> 00:48:18,839
Speaker 2: chat just like last year. So you know that does

916
00:48:18,880 --> 00:48:22,080
Speaker 2: wearing a player, especially someone into their second year. So, uh,

917
00:48:22,200 --> 00:48:25,040
Speaker 2: I get your hesitation here. It's not fun backing mac

918
00:48:25,160 --> 00:48:27,880
Speaker 2: Jones as a dog in this spot, but it is

919
00:48:27,920 --> 00:48:29,640
Speaker 2: really about playing this number. This number, I have a

920
00:48:29,680 --> 00:48:32,480
Speaker 2: closer to four. It's only five, kind of a dead

921
00:48:32,560 --> 00:48:34,400
Speaker 2: zone number. It's I'm not going to force you to

922
00:48:34,440 --> 00:48:35,200
Speaker 2: take this one.

923
00:48:36,400 --> 00:48:39,080
Speaker 1: I think I think that the Texans offensive line is

924
00:48:39,120 --> 00:48:45,680
Speaker 1: just so bad. Yeah, that he's uncomfortable, and I think

925
00:48:45,880 --> 00:48:48,440
Speaker 1: schematically teams have changed what they're doing against him from

926
00:48:48,520 --> 00:48:52,600
Speaker 1: last year and that's also making him a comfortable still

927
00:48:52,640 --> 00:48:56,440
Speaker 1: a huge fantas CYJ. Stroud. But yeah, let's just not

928
00:48:56,480 --> 00:48:58,799
Speaker 1: even talk about this one anymore, because I do want

929
00:48:58,840 --> 00:49:01,640
Speaker 1: to talk about the Chargers the Falcons. I could not

930
00:49:01,640 --> 00:49:04,320
Speaker 1: come up with a take here, and like, I wanted

931
00:49:04,320 --> 00:49:08,840
Speaker 1: to love the Chargers, but I worry about their pressure

932
00:49:09,080 --> 00:49:12,319
Speaker 1: on Kirk Cousins and can they really do things that

933
00:49:12,360 --> 00:49:17,320
Speaker 1: will make Kirk Cousins uncomfortable as a dog at home?

934
00:49:17,719 --> 00:49:19,920
Speaker 1: So I liked hearing that the wise guys were on

935
00:49:19,960 --> 00:49:22,320
Speaker 1: the Chargers a little bit. Tell me what you're thinking

936
00:49:22,320 --> 00:49:23,240
Speaker 1: and what you're hearing.

937
00:49:23,760 --> 00:49:25,520
Speaker 2: Now, did you watch that Charges game with the Ravens

938
00:49:25,560 --> 00:49:26,319
Speaker 2: last naar or no?

939
00:49:26,520 --> 00:49:31,759
Speaker 1: Every second? You know why? I tailed Sean Kerner, who

940
00:49:31,880 --> 00:49:36,560
Speaker 1: had will Disley over thirty nine and a half receiving

941
00:49:36,640 --> 00:49:42,880
Speaker 1: yards and through fifty eight minutes. In about thirty seconds,

942
00:49:42,880 --> 00:49:46,759
Speaker 1: he had thirty eight, three targets, three catches, including the

943
00:49:46,800 --> 00:49:50,800
Speaker 1: first catch for eighteen yards, and Justin Herbert like was

944
00:49:50,920 --> 00:49:53,399
Speaker 1: dropping back two seconds through downd Field was barely looking

945
00:49:53,440 --> 00:49:55,960
Speaker 1: for Disley, so I was just sweating him getting one

946
00:49:55,960 --> 00:49:58,919
Speaker 1: more dump off and he got it in the final drive.

947
00:49:59,200 --> 00:50:02,760
Speaker 1: So yes, I watched every second of the game, and honestly,

948
00:50:03,280 --> 00:50:05,480
Speaker 1: I watched every second of the game and thought it

949
00:50:05,560 --> 00:50:10,000
Speaker 1: completely changed when JK. Dobbins went out and it puts

950
00:50:10,040 --> 00:50:12,319
Speaker 1: so much pressure on Herbert and the offensive line is

951
00:50:12,640 --> 00:50:15,000
Speaker 1: not very good in the middle of the line that

952
00:50:16,440 --> 00:50:19,680
Speaker 1: they couldn't really function. So I don't know if JK.

953
00:50:19,719 --> 00:50:21,160
Speaker 1: Dobbins is playing this week. I don't know what the

954
00:50:21,160 --> 00:50:22,840
Speaker 1: status is, but I thought that had an impact on

955
00:50:22,880 --> 00:50:23,200
Speaker 1: the game.

956
00:50:23,920 --> 00:50:27,000
Speaker 2: I agree. I thought Chargers though that you know, even

957
00:50:27,040 --> 00:50:29,719
Speaker 2: though they did lose, they showed me a lot of

958
00:50:29,760 --> 00:50:31,200
Speaker 2: knocks in the game where it's like, you know they

959
00:50:31,280 --> 00:50:34,399
Speaker 2: are a playoff team that you know they run into

960
00:50:34,440 --> 00:50:37,719
Speaker 2: a jugging out like Lamar, if he's on, what are

961
00:50:37,760 --> 00:50:40,840
Speaker 2: you gonna do? Like that was such a Lamar Derek Henry.

962
00:50:40,880 --> 00:50:43,280
Speaker 2: That combo just kills you as the game goes along,

963
00:50:43,440 --> 00:50:46,439
Speaker 2: and you know, early on I believe it was ten nothing.

964
00:50:46,480 --> 00:50:49,520
Speaker 2: It's like, you know, there's Chargers team, they're really good,

965
00:50:49,560 --> 00:50:52,319
Speaker 2: but they can't be kicking those field goals and we

966
00:50:52,320 --> 00:50:54,840
Speaker 2: go talk all the time Lamar is gonna get his eventually,

967
00:50:55,000 --> 00:50:58,120
Speaker 2: and you know him getting that touchdown right before half

968
00:50:58,760 --> 00:51:00,680
Speaker 2: and then getting the ball back to start the second half,

969
00:51:00,719 --> 00:51:03,080
Speaker 2: it's like he's such a killer with that. We talk

970
00:51:03,120 --> 00:51:06,080
Speaker 2: all the time. There's veteran quarterbacks that do that. You know,

971
00:51:06,200 --> 00:51:08,720
Speaker 2: it's such a game changer getting that fourteen point swing.

972
00:51:08,840 --> 00:51:11,319
Speaker 2: So this Chargers team, to me, when we're looking at

973
00:51:11,320 --> 00:51:14,719
Speaker 2: this match, we gets Atlanta, They're like what Atlanta wants

974
00:51:14,800 --> 00:51:19,560
Speaker 2: to be. They're well coached, tough as hell, and consistent

975
00:51:20,080 --> 00:51:24,480
Speaker 2: defensively and offensively. And you know, the hesitation for me

976
00:51:24,600 --> 00:51:27,959
Speaker 2: is just they're traveling in a short week, right, Isn't

977
00:51:27,960 --> 00:51:31,320
Speaker 2: that not ideal? Especially after playing that Ravens team against

978
00:51:31,360 --> 00:51:34,120
Speaker 2: you know, Atlanta team coming off their bye week, Like,

979
00:51:34,160 --> 00:51:37,800
Speaker 2: I get the rest advantages towards them. So we've seen

980
00:51:37,920 --> 00:51:40,640
Speaker 2: earl here that you know, the public has come in

981
00:51:40,719 --> 00:51:43,640
Speaker 2: on Atlanta like that makes whole sense to me. But

982
00:51:44,000 --> 00:51:45,680
Speaker 2: you know, from my perspective, a lot of the pros

983
00:51:45,719 --> 00:51:48,239
Speaker 2: I've talked to, it's just like the Chargers are a

984
00:51:48,239 --> 00:51:50,320
Speaker 2: better team. They're just being overlooked because they were just

985
00:51:50,360 --> 00:51:52,280
Speaker 2: in a Monday night game and they just got Lamart,

986
00:51:52,480 --> 00:51:57,319
Speaker 2: Like It's no fault of that Chargers team. It's you know,

987
00:51:57,480 --> 00:51:59,640
Speaker 2: the big brother always beats a little brother, right, That's

988
00:51:59,680 --> 00:52:02,400
Speaker 2: just how it is. So I think we're getting good

989
00:52:02,480 --> 00:52:05,000
Speaker 2: value here. I was honestly gonna make this, Simon says,

990
00:52:05,040 --> 00:52:06,960
Speaker 2: but a couple of books have already moved it to two.

991
00:52:07,239 --> 00:52:08,480
Speaker 2: But you can still get the one and a half.

992
00:52:08,560 --> 00:52:10,560
Speaker 2: I love this number on the Chargers team, that just

993
00:52:11,000 --> 00:52:12,799
Speaker 2: they are the more complete team. Reminds me a little

994
00:52:12,800 --> 00:52:15,799
Speaker 2: bit when the Seahawks came in and played this Atlanta team.

995
00:52:15,840 --> 00:52:19,040
Speaker 2: This kind of matchup of you know, two teams that

996
00:52:19,640 --> 00:52:21,640
Speaker 2: we've seen in the Atlanta team, they're just not that

997
00:52:21,719 --> 00:52:25,280
Speaker 2: good against really good teams or just teams that are above,

998
00:52:25,360 --> 00:52:27,840
Speaker 2: you know, the bottom feeders of their own division. So,

999
00:52:28,840 --> 00:52:32,320
Speaker 2: you know, if if we can sell on this NFC

1000
00:52:32,360 --> 00:52:34,720
Speaker 2: South against this team, then the charge that we believe

1001
00:52:35,000 --> 00:52:37,480
Speaker 2: it's gonna be the seven or six seed in the AFC,

1002
00:52:38,000 --> 00:52:39,759
Speaker 2: how do they not bounce back and win this game.

1003
00:52:39,800 --> 00:52:41,920
Speaker 2: This is a must win for this Chargers team, especially

1004
00:52:42,040 --> 00:52:44,560
Speaker 2: if they hope to get that back door seed, because

1005
00:52:44,600 --> 00:52:46,439
Speaker 2: we've seen it like Denver's coming for them, like they're

1006
00:52:46,480 --> 00:52:49,759
Speaker 2: coming for that last remaining playoff spot. So yeah, I

1007
00:52:50,200 --> 00:52:52,400
Speaker 2: like this Chargers team being desperate here especially had a

1008
00:52:52,480 --> 00:52:55,640
Speaker 2: key number under two. Yeah, it's a great matchup. Do

1009
00:52:55,680 --> 00:52:56,920
Speaker 2: you want to make it foxhol or do you have

1010
00:52:56,960 --> 00:52:57,800
Speaker 2: another game in mind?

1011
00:52:58,160 --> 00:53:02,120
Speaker 1: No, I would do foxhol with the Chargers with me, Yeah,

1012
00:53:02,160 --> 00:53:04,520
Speaker 1: I'll do it. I'll do it. I'll go foxhole because

1013
00:53:04,560 --> 00:53:06,520
Speaker 1: you know what, it scares me, and I do think

1014
00:53:06,560 --> 00:53:08,319
Speaker 1: that people are going to want to bet Atlanta. They're

1015
00:53:08,320 --> 00:53:11,759
Speaker 1: coming off a bye they're at home. It's a short week,

1016
00:53:11,920 --> 00:53:14,080
Speaker 1: huge travel for the Chargers, not even like middle of

1017
00:53:14,080 --> 00:53:17,680
Speaker 1: the country travel, like we're going deep South travel. You

1018
00:53:17,680 --> 00:53:19,480
Speaker 1: got to take that extra forty five minutes on the

1019
00:53:19,480 --> 00:53:23,239
Speaker 1: plane travel. So uh, it's a tough spot. So we've

1020
00:53:23,280 --> 00:53:25,520
Speaker 1: got a lot of things working against us. So yeah,

1021
00:53:25,680 --> 00:53:31,000
Speaker 1: let's foxhole it. Los Angeles Chargers minus two right now? Fantastic.

1022
00:53:31,520 --> 00:53:33,319
Speaker 2: You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a

1023
00:53:33,360 --> 00:53:35,840
Speaker 2: foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to

1024
00:53:35,840 --> 00:53:37,399
Speaker 2: a city. I'm a foxhole guy.

1025
00:53:38,080 --> 00:53:42,040
Speaker 1: Oh God, Tampa Bay at Carolina, it's at six. Let's

1026
00:53:42,160 --> 00:53:43,759
Speaker 1: move from six and a half to six. We know

1027
00:53:43,840 --> 00:53:45,880
Speaker 1: the wise guys are on it. We talked about it

1028
00:53:45,880 --> 00:53:49,719
Speaker 1: on Sunday. We leaned Panthers. I just wonder can we

1029
00:53:49,800 --> 00:53:52,520
Speaker 1: go back to the well, Like, can the Panthers at

1030
00:53:52,560 --> 00:53:55,719
Speaker 1: plus six be in our contest? Forget about betting them.

1031
00:53:55,800 --> 00:53:57,839
Speaker 1: We got to bet them. We like the number, we

1032
00:53:57,960 --> 00:54:02,080
Speaker 1: like the spot. We think it's still too much tilted

1033
00:54:02,120 --> 00:54:06,360
Speaker 1: towards Tampa Bay. But can we put him in the contest?

1034
00:54:09,200 --> 00:54:12,120
Speaker 2: Uh? I would even if it was five and a half,

1035
00:54:12,160 --> 00:54:14,080
Speaker 2: I could force us to put it in. I just

1036
00:54:15,160 --> 00:54:17,640
Speaker 2: we saw last week with this Carolina team, like there,

1037
00:54:17,800 --> 00:54:19,799
Speaker 2: it feels like their offense has really figured things out.

1038
00:54:19,840 --> 00:54:23,640
Speaker 2: They're kind of inner groove here. And you know, obviously

1039
00:54:23,719 --> 00:54:26,799
Speaker 2: Bryce Young was out of this world good last week.

1040
00:54:26,880 --> 00:54:29,680
Speaker 2: We saw the crazy numbers. He was like not perfect

1041
00:54:29,680 --> 00:54:32,000
Speaker 2: against the blitz, but just about perfect against it. Like

1042
00:54:32,040 --> 00:54:35,880
Speaker 2: he always made the right read, which you know, that

1043
00:54:35,960 --> 00:54:37,480
Speaker 2: was why he was drafted where he was at he

1044
00:54:37,520 --> 00:54:40,560
Speaker 2: was Apparently he was like a football genius and that

1045
00:54:40,600 --> 00:54:41,960
Speaker 2: was one of the things they fell in love with that,

1046
00:54:42,120 --> 00:54:44,600
Speaker 2: Like this guy was so good at reading defense and

1047
00:54:44,680 --> 00:54:46,919
Speaker 2: picking things up, and we hadn't seen that for about

1048
00:54:46,920 --> 00:54:50,120
Speaker 2: a year and a half. And whatever's changed for him

1049
00:54:50,160 --> 00:54:52,759
Speaker 2: sitting out and be on the sideline and him embracing

1050
00:54:52,760 --> 00:54:55,680
Speaker 2: it it's worked. I mean, his last three games, his

1051
00:54:55,760 --> 00:54:58,759
Speaker 2: last three covers, Like we've all seen it. So I'm

1052
00:54:58,760 --> 00:55:00,319
Speaker 2: with you, it's a little scary because it's like we

1053
00:55:00,160 --> 00:55:02,080
Speaker 2: we've been riding these guys and we're gonna go back

1054
00:55:02,080 --> 00:55:04,440
Speaker 2: for one more. But it really is just about this

1055
00:55:04,520 --> 00:55:08,160
Speaker 2: match with Tampa that we've seen it. Tampa, they're they're

1056
00:55:08,200 --> 00:55:10,399
Speaker 2: a good team. We know they're better obviously with Mike

1057
00:55:10,640 --> 00:55:13,600
Speaker 2: Mike Evans back, but they're not the team that you

1058
00:55:13,600 --> 00:55:15,040
Speaker 2: know they just blow out the Giants and they just

1059
00:55:15,080 --> 00:55:17,320
Speaker 2: they don't do that right. They usually keep keep games

1060
00:55:17,320 --> 00:55:20,000
Speaker 2: pretty damn close. That's what their m has been, especially

1061
00:55:20,000 --> 00:55:22,880
Speaker 2: since Baker's been there, and this divisional game and this

1062
00:55:22,960 --> 00:55:26,040
Speaker 2: matchup them on the road. We like Carolina at home,

1063
00:55:26,120 --> 00:55:28,239
Speaker 2: like that's we've always joked about. But Carolina has just

1064
00:55:28,280 --> 00:55:30,960
Speaker 2: been better with Bryce Shawn at home. Uh, in these

1065
00:55:30,960 --> 00:55:32,960
Speaker 2: outdoor matchup. I mean even last year, going back to

1066
00:55:33,000 --> 00:55:36,400
Speaker 2: one of our favorite bets was Carolina Evernce that Houston

1067
00:55:36,440 --> 00:55:38,080
Speaker 2: team and it was outdoors and I remember Houston was

1068
00:55:38,080 --> 00:55:40,560
Speaker 2: getting all the love and somehow Carolina pulled the upset.

1069
00:55:40,600 --> 00:55:42,120
Speaker 2: It's just the type of team they are where it's

1070
00:55:42,160 --> 00:55:44,680
Speaker 2: like they're for some reason better at home, especially as

1071
00:55:44,680 --> 00:55:47,000
Speaker 2: a dog. And this this is no different. This is

1072
00:55:47,040 --> 00:55:49,920
Speaker 2: another game where we're definitely gonna force this one in

1073
00:55:49,960 --> 00:55:52,759
Speaker 2: the money line around Robin Jeez. We've got like.

1074
00:55:54,480 --> 00:55:56,800
Speaker 1: The Colts and if we can get the good number

1075
00:55:56,880 --> 00:56:05,080
Speaker 1: the Steelers but also the Jet Tennessee the Chargers traveling

1076
00:56:05,239 --> 00:56:09,840
Speaker 1: potentially injured Carolina. Now we're getting back to our roots

1077
00:56:10,280 --> 00:56:15,960
Speaker 1: and look forgetting any analysis. If we were just looking

1078
00:56:16,040 --> 00:56:20,560
Speaker 1: at public perception and the number, it'd be a no brainer.

1079
00:56:21,680 --> 00:56:28,320
Speaker 1: Bucks coming off of a blowout win Baker ballin Panthers.

1080
00:56:29,000 --> 00:56:32,360
Speaker 1: Still Losers played well, but it's still Bryce Young in

1081
00:56:32,400 --> 00:56:36,000
Speaker 1: the perception of that, So it makes sense that we're

1082
00:56:36,040 --> 00:56:41,000
Speaker 1: talking about it. I just don't like it. La Rams

1083
00:56:41,000 --> 00:56:43,279
Speaker 1: at New Orleans New Orleans plus three. This one's ticked

1084
00:56:43,360 --> 00:56:46,960
Speaker 1: up a little bit plus three. You like this one

1085
00:56:47,040 --> 00:56:51,160
Speaker 1: with the Saints on Sunday. I don't know if we're

1086
00:56:51,200 --> 00:56:54,840
Speaker 1: still feeling that way. You and I have vastly different

1087
00:56:54,840 --> 00:56:57,760
Speaker 1: opinions on the Rams. On the Rams and the Eagles

1088
00:56:57,800 --> 00:57:01,759
Speaker 1: last week, and my issue with the Rams, and I'm

1089
00:57:01,760 --> 00:57:03,920
Speaker 1: sort of supporting the Saints. I'm not saying I want

1090
00:57:03,960 --> 00:57:07,440
Speaker 1: to do it is I think their offensive line is terrible,

1091
00:57:07,800 --> 00:57:11,239
Speaker 1: even healthy, they just they they've been wildly inconsistent in

1092
00:57:11,280 --> 00:57:14,600
Speaker 1: protection and overall on offense. We saw it against the Dolphins,

1093
00:57:15,040 --> 00:57:18,240
Speaker 1: we saw it against the Patriots, both of those things.

1094
00:57:18,280 --> 00:57:23,920
Speaker 1: Bad offensive line play, inconsistent execution against the Eagles. Like,

1095
00:57:24,240 --> 00:57:28,040
Speaker 1: does our opinion change now that the Rams have lost

1096
00:57:28,120 --> 00:57:32,280
Speaker 1: so badly? McVeigh on the road as a favorite off

1097
00:57:32,280 --> 00:57:39,600
Speaker 1: a loss twenty seven, nineteen to three, Like it feels

1098
00:57:39,640 --> 00:57:41,520
Speaker 1: like a better spot for the Rams, which could be

1099
00:57:41,520 --> 00:57:42,320
Speaker 1: why it's ticked up.

1100
00:57:43,640 --> 00:57:46,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, coming to my old thought was that the Rams

1101
00:57:46,040 --> 00:57:49,280
Speaker 2: have struggled against the run. And I know that sounds

1102
00:57:49,280 --> 00:57:51,680
Speaker 2: like a weird way to back the Eagles a previous speak,

1103
00:57:51,680 --> 00:57:52,880
Speaker 2: but I thought the Rams were going to move the

1104
00:57:52,920 --> 00:57:54,560
Speaker 2: ball against he was defense and that they would have

1105
00:57:54,600 --> 00:57:56,440
Speaker 2: a lead and they would have to you know, not

1106
00:57:56,520 --> 00:57:58,479
Speaker 2: that though the Eagles stop running ball. But I feel

1107
00:57:58,480 --> 00:58:00,000
Speaker 2: like that was gonna be the game changer that once

1108
00:58:00,080 --> 00:58:02,560
Speaker 2: I got a lead, Eagles be pressing having to pass

1109
00:58:02,600 --> 00:58:04,280
Speaker 2: the ball, Barye. That's what the Eagles don't want to do.

1110
00:58:05,320 --> 00:58:08,080
Speaker 2: The Rams, man, their their defense is way worse against

1111
00:58:08,080 --> 00:58:10,439
Speaker 2: the run that even I thought, and that's what the

1112
00:58:10,600 --> 00:58:12,560
Speaker 2: Saints want to do. They want to run the ball,

1113
00:58:12,640 --> 00:58:14,680
Speaker 2: and we always talk about that's what their identity has

1114
00:58:14,720 --> 00:58:18,000
Speaker 2: been like when they were being great early in the season,

1115
00:58:18,000 --> 00:58:20,360
Speaker 2: it was because they ran the ball and they could

1116
00:58:20,360 --> 00:58:22,640
Speaker 2: set up play action putting the ball downfield. And that's

1117
00:58:22,680 --> 00:58:25,320
Speaker 2: really been what the the key to the success has

1118
00:58:25,360 --> 00:58:27,920
Speaker 2: been for this Saints team this year. So yeah, I

1119
00:58:27,920 --> 00:58:29,480
Speaker 2: don't feel as strongly as I do it back because

1120
00:58:29,520 --> 00:58:32,920
Speaker 2: what you just said, like the Rams, this is this

1121
00:58:33,000 --> 00:58:35,680
Speaker 2: is for their season now, like this is it this

1122
00:58:35,800 --> 00:58:38,960
Speaker 2: If they lose this, they know that they're playoffs, it's all,

1123
00:58:39,120 --> 00:58:41,720
Speaker 2: it's totally over. I mean, it already might be over.

1124
00:58:41,920 --> 00:58:46,080
Speaker 2: But I get that that's why this numbers kicked up, right,

1125
00:58:46,120 --> 00:58:47,800
Speaker 2: I think the public and the pros are and look

1126
00:58:47,840 --> 00:58:50,520
Speaker 2: from that standpoint of you know, I think the Rams

1127
00:58:50,520 --> 00:58:54,320
Speaker 2: are still a better team. They're still healthy offensively. If

1128
00:58:54,320 --> 00:58:56,240
Speaker 2: it turns into a shootout, who would you rather have

1129
00:58:56,280 --> 00:58:59,160
Speaker 2: Stafford or Derek Carr. So I totally get their perspective

1130
00:58:59,200 --> 00:59:01,640
Speaker 2: of this game in this matter, But it really is

1131
00:59:01,680 --> 00:59:03,919
Speaker 2: to me, comes down to what the Saints team wants

1132
00:59:03,920 --> 00:59:06,480
Speaker 2: to do. Run the ball. And you know, they might

1133
00:59:06,480 --> 00:59:09,160
Speaker 2: have found something last week with Taysom Hill, like that

1134
00:59:09,160 --> 00:59:11,200
Speaker 2: that there is always a point where they put him

1135
00:59:11,200 --> 00:59:13,120
Speaker 2: in until he gets hurt. And we don't know if

1136
00:59:13,400 --> 00:59:16,160
Speaker 2: this week we will get hurt. But when he is running,

1137
00:59:16,200 --> 00:59:19,080
Speaker 2: that switch up is pretty deadly. And we just seen

1138
00:59:19,120 --> 00:59:22,320
Speaker 2: the Eagles the way they just ran down this RAMS

1139
00:59:22,320 --> 00:59:24,840
Speaker 2: team's throat, like you can make huge holes. They don't

1140
00:59:24,880 --> 00:59:26,680
Speaker 2: have an Aaron Donald in that middle that really can

1141
00:59:26,720 --> 00:59:28,680
Speaker 2: give you any type of fits to run the ball

1142
00:59:28,720 --> 00:59:32,040
Speaker 2: against this Rams team. So that's my perspective of the Jets, Like,

1143
00:59:32,040 --> 00:59:33,520
Speaker 2: am I going to make this one of our five chat?

1144
00:59:33,560 --> 00:59:34,959
Speaker 2: And I probably won't force it in there.

1145
00:59:35,480 --> 00:59:37,000
Speaker 1: We still got a couple of games to talk about

1146
00:59:37,000 --> 00:59:40,320
Speaker 1: that I feel pretty good about, okay, including the Eagles

1147
00:59:40,320 --> 00:59:40,960
Speaker 1: at Baltimore.

1148
00:59:41,320 --> 00:59:45,120
Speaker 2: It's Baltimore, gentlemen, the gods will not save you.

1149
00:59:45,440 --> 00:59:48,440
Speaker 1: Baltimore's not a three point favorite after they'll win over

1150
00:59:48,480 --> 00:59:50,200
Speaker 1: the Chargers last night. It's gone up from two and

1151
00:59:50,240 --> 00:59:54,120
Speaker 1: a half to three. Lamar as last night favorite of

1152
00:59:54,120 --> 00:59:56,800
Speaker 1: three or lass or a dog twenty six and six

1153
00:59:56,840 --> 00:59:59,880
Speaker 1: in the regular season against the spread. So the questions

1154
01:00:00,120 --> 01:00:03,600
Speaker 1: that we have to ask ourselves, do we think the

1155
01:00:03,680 --> 01:00:07,160
Speaker 1: Ravens defense improved? Do we think they just got lucky

1156
01:00:07,880 --> 01:00:10,840
Speaker 1: that JK. Dobbins didn't play in the second half. Do

1157
01:00:10,880 --> 01:00:14,120
Speaker 1: we think the Eagles are potentially overvalued because of what

1158
01:00:14,160 --> 01:00:18,280
Speaker 1: Saquon did? Like I thought they did to the Rams

1159
01:00:18,640 --> 01:00:22,520
Speaker 1: exactly what they're great at. They rushed the passer, they

1160
01:00:22,600 --> 01:00:25,080
Speaker 1: ran the ball, They dominated at the line of scrimmage.

1161
01:00:26,440 --> 01:00:31,360
Speaker 1: What I will say about the Eagles if we're comping

1162
01:00:31,440 --> 01:00:33,440
Speaker 1: to last night, is that there are a couple of

1163
01:00:33,480 --> 01:00:38,480
Speaker 1: times where Quentin Johnston couldn't make the play. AJ Brown

1164
01:00:38,520 --> 01:00:45,480
Speaker 1: will make that play against a relatively weak Ravens secondary.

1165
01:00:45,520 --> 01:00:50,280
Speaker 1: This was my other choice for executive decision, playing the

1166
01:00:50,280 --> 01:00:51,840
Speaker 1: Eagles plus three.

1167
01:00:53,000 --> 01:00:54,680
Speaker 2: Yeah. I think the move here though, is just if

1168
01:00:54,720 --> 01:00:56,600
Speaker 2: you're going to take the Eagles, I think the money

1169
01:00:56,640 --> 01:00:58,680
Speaker 2: lines a move, not the plus three. And if you're

1170
01:00:58,680 --> 01:01:02,400
Speaker 2: taking the Ravens, obviously shop round you can find maybe

1171
01:01:02,440 --> 01:01:05,760
Speaker 2: still find that two and a half. But that's decided

1172
01:01:05,800 --> 01:01:08,280
Speaker 2: to be on with this Ravens team is you know

1173
01:01:09,560 --> 01:01:13,080
Speaker 2: what is Lamar twenty one to one straight up against NFC.

1174
01:01:13,120 --> 01:01:16,080
Speaker 2: He's just dominated where it's like, you know, even when

1175
01:01:16,120 --> 01:01:18,720
Speaker 2: it doesn't make sense and you're like, Okay, the Ravens

1176
01:01:18,760 --> 01:01:20,600
Speaker 2: aren't as good as they've been in previous years. We

1177
01:01:20,840 --> 01:01:23,800
Speaker 2: expected to take a step back. They just haven't. I mean,

1178
01:01:23,840 --> 01:01:26,440
Speaker 2: he when he is going offensively, Lamar is just he's

1179
01:01:26,440 --> 01:01:30,080
Speaker 2: an MVP level players. So the hesitation here for me

1180
01:01:30,240 --> 01:01:33,240
Speaker 2: is just this Eagles team, like we just said, they

1181
01:01:33,240 --> 01:01:35,880
Speaker 2: are very young on the defense, This is a type

1182
01:01:35,920 --> 01:01:39,080
Speaker 2: of quarterback that would give them problems, would give them issues.

1183
01:01:39,720 --> 01:01:42,680
Speaker 2: They win this, I mean them in Detroit, you might

1184
01:01:42,680 --> 01:01:44,800
Speaker 2: as well pencil in for the NFC Championship game. I

1185
01:01:44,840 --> 01:01:47,240
Speaker 2: mean it would be all time smoke blown up their

1186
01:01:47,280 --> 01:01:50,240
Speaker 2: ass if they can pull this one off. So I

1187
01:01:50,520 --> 01:01:52,680
Speaker 2: get that perspective. I wanted to be on the Eagles

1188
01:01:52,720 --> 01:01:55,480
Speaker 2: as well. But it's the Lamar the two and a

1189
01:01:55,560 --> 01:01:58,280
Speaker 2: half where I'm having Paul's just because of that stat

1190
01:01:58,320 --> 01:02:00,720
Speaker 2: from Van where it's like if you get him under

1191
01:02:00,760 --> 01:02:04,320
Speaker 2: three is a favorite, stop overthinking it. You just take it.

1192
01:02:04,360 --> 01:02:06,480
Speaker 2: And even last night I was kicking myself where it's like,

1193
01:02:06,640 --> 01:02:08,840
Speaker 2: why did I overthink this and take that Chargers team?

1194
01:02:08,960 --> 01:02:10,960
Speaker 2: You had the Mark two and a half. You just

1195
01:02:11,040 --> 01:02:13,320
Speaker 2: take it, you don't think about it. He's just he's

1196
01:02:13,320 --> 01:02:16,480
Speaker 2: a cash cow in this exact spot. But this Eagles

1197
01:02:16,480 --> 01:02:19,680
Speaker 2: team is good enough. We just talked about, like offensively defensively,

1198
01:02:20,600 --> 01:02:23,040
Speaker 2: they can beat this team. They can keep up with points.

1199
01:02:23,040 --> 01:02:26,520
Speaker 2: So to me, that's I'm not here for pushes. I'd

1200
01:02:26,600 --> 01:02:29,080
Speaker 2: rather take the Eagles money line had them win this

1201
01:02:29,120 --> 01:02:30,520
Speaker 2: game out right in a late field goal.

1202
01:02:31,680 --> 01:02:34,040
Speaker 1: The Buffalo Bills are seven point favorites over the San

1203
01:02:34,040 --> 01:02:38,000
Speaker 1: Francisco forty nine ers. You have the wise guys betting

1204
01:02:38,040 --> 01:02:40,600
Speaker 1: on the Bills here. I just thought the number was moving.

1205
01:02:40,640 --> 01:02:43,240
Speaker 1: The numbers moved up. I thought it was moving because

1206
01:02:44,640 --> 01:02:46,960
Speaker 1: we still don't know about brock Purty. We don't know

1207
01:02:46,960 --> 01:02:49,560
Speaker 1: about Nick Bosa, we don't know about Trent Williams. Like,

1208
01:02:49,920 --> 01:02:53,240
Speaker 1: why why would we play the Niners in this spot?

1209
01:02:53,280 --> 01:02:56,080
Speaker 1: I don't necessarily feel great playing the Bills until I

1210
01:02:56,120 --> 01:02:57,000
Speaker 1: know about brock Purty.

1211
01:02:57,440 --> 01:02:59,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the pros of the Bills. And when

1212
01:02:59,000 --> 01:03:00,880
Speaker 2: I like about the Bills here is just the fact

1213
01:03:00,920 --> 01:03:02,480
Speaker 2: that they're one of the best running teams in football

1214
01:03:02,480 --> 01:03:04,840
Speaker 2: against fogn Iris team that just can't stop the run.

1215
01:03:04,960 --> 01:03:08,240
Speaker 2: I mean, they clearly have some issues right now defensively,

1216
01:03:08,320 --> 01:03:11,000
Speaker 2: and the biggest one is the run. Like last year,

1217
01:03:11,520 --> 01:03:13,160
Speaker 2: you know they could kind of cover it up because

1218
01:03:13,160 --> 01:03:14,520
Speaker 2: they had such a good D line. They're just not

1219
01:03:14,560 --> 01:03:16,360
Speaker 2: the same D line this season, and we've kind of

1220
01:03:16,400 --> 01:03:19,120
Speaker 2: seen that pop up where it's like, you know, last

1221
01:03:19,200 --> 01:03:20,959
Speaker 2: year they would have leads and they could wear teams

1222
01:03:21,000 --> 01:03:23,919
Speaker 2: out and they were had fresh legs. Defensively, they don't

1223
01:03:23,960 --> 01:03:26,040
Speaker 2: have that, Like their defense is gonna be out there

1224
01:03:26,080 --> 01:03:28,520
Speaker 2: a lot, they're gonna be worn down. And this Bills team,

1225
01:03:29,160 --> 01:03:31,000
Speaker 2: they're just so good. We've seen Josh Allen is a

1226
01:03:31,000 --> 01:03:33,640
Speaker 2: big favorite at home. He just dominates teams like this

1227
01:03:33,680 --> 01:03:38,280
Speaker 2: in this exact spot. So, yeah, prime time Sunday night game,

1228
01:03:38,840 --> 01:03:41,520
Speaker 2: it really is Josh Allen versus the backup quarterback of

1229
01:03:41,560 --> 01:03:44,080
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers. I might have to bully chat

1230
01:03:44,120 --> 01:03:45,840
Speaker 2: and putting this one the contest at six and a half,

1231
01:03:45,920 --> 01:03:49,320
Speaker 2: it's like, come on, that's an insane, insane number to

1232
01:03:49,360 --> 01:03:51,440
Speaker 2: get right now in this Bills team at home in

1233
01:03:51,520 --> 01:03:54,000
Speaker 2: this spot against a foreign irison, like we just said,

1234
01:03:54,040 --> 01:03:57,000
Speaker 2: they might be once again without Perty and Bosa in

1235
01:03:57,080 --> 01:04:00,120
Speaker 2: this matchup against the MVP of football right now and Josh,

1236
01:04:00,400 --> 01:04:01,600
Speaker 2: So it's a good matchup.

1237
01:04:01,320 --> 01:04:02,840
Speaker 1: For the I would have no problem with the Bills

1238
01:04:02,840 --> 01:04:04,960
Speaker 1: at six and a half in the contest without Purty,

1239
01:04:05,360 --> 01:04:08,240
Speaker 1: like we were comfortable with the Packers. That's what the

1240
01:04:08,360 --> 01:04:11,080
Speaker 1: number landed at for the Packers. Almost that he got

1241
01:04:11,160 --> 01:04:14,080
Speaker 1: up there and like the Bills are better than the Packers.

1242
01:04:14,080 --> 01:04:16,200
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, and this, you know, so I don't know

1243
01:04:16,240 --> 01:04:19,439
Speaker 1: a problem with that at all. But the Monday night

1244
01:04:19,480 --> 01:04:23,040
Speaker 1: game Denver is a five and a half point favor

1245
01:04:23,080 --> 01:04:26,840
Speaker 1: over Cleveland. Look, I have an overwhelming urge to fade

1246
01:04:26,960 --> 01:04:31,200
Speaker 1: Jamis because he played well in back to back games

1247
01:04:31,600 --> 01:04:36,880
Speaker 1: straight up off a win. He's thirteen seventeen and two

1248
01:04:37,000 --> 01:04:40,080
Speaker 1: against the spread. Yea one in five against the spread

1249
01:04:40,080 --> 01:04:43,760
Speaker 1: since twenty twenty one, Thank you, Evan. It is also

1250
01:04:43,840 --> 01:04:47,440
Speaker 1: a great urge to fade bo Nicks and the speaking Broncos.

1251
01:04:47,760 --> 01:04:50,920
Speaker 1: But I think my urge to fade Jamis is greater

1252
01:04:51,840 --> 01:04:57,200
Speaker 1: because aren't the Broncos kind of like the Lions in

1253
01:04:57,240 --> 01:05:00,400
Speaker 1: some respects? Like what we love about the Lions. They

1254
01:05:00,440 --> 01:05:05,920
Speaker 1: are super physical, they don't make mistakes, they have great coaching.

1255
01:05:06,920 --> 01:05:10,240
Speaker 1: You know what. The Broncos are first in past block

1256
01:05:10,400 --> 01:05:14,840
Speaker 1: win rate, meaning they're super fast at hedding off the

1257
01:05:14,880 --> 01:05:18,640
Speaker 1: ball and protecting the passer. Their fifth in run block

1258
01:05:18,760 --> 01:05:23,440
Speaker 1: win rate, same third in pass rush win rate, meaning

1259
01:05:23,760 --> 01:05:27,200
Speaker 1: their defensive linemen get off the ball and get an

1260
01:05:27,320 --> 01:05:31,920
Speaker 1: edge faster than the players they are playing against, they

1261
01:05:31,920 --> 01:05:36,920
Speaker 1: don't make mistakes. Bo Nicks has two interceptions since September fifteenth,

1262
01:05:37,720 --> 01:05:40,360
Speaker 1: and they have great coaching. So why don't I love

1263
01:05:41,040 --> 01:05:41,840
Speaker 1: the Broncos here?

1264
01:05:44,040 --> 01:05:45,800
Speaker 2: I think it's just because the number, right, we like?

1265
01:05:45,960 --> 01:05:47,400
Speaker 2: I agree with you. When I first saw this, I

1266
01:05:47,400 --> 01:05:49,600
Speaker 2: felt it felt a little high. I'll be honest, It's like,

1267
01:05:49,640 --> 01:05:50,880
Speaker 2: why is this not three and a half?

1268
01:05:50,880 --> 01:05:51,120
Speaker 4: Four?

1269
01:05:51,760 --> 01:05:53,280
Speaker 2: But I feel like you just broke it down. Why

1270
01:05:53,360 --> 01:05:55,760
Speaker 2: it's not why it is closer to six? Because of

1271
01:05:55,800 --> 01:05:58,560
Speaker 2: this Denver defense and because the way Bonux has been playing.

1272
01:05:59,000 --> 01:06:02,280
Speaker 2: And yeah that I didn't know those James stats. That's

1273
01:06:02,320 --> 01:06:05,840
Speaker 2: insane how bad he's been after wins. So yeah, I

1274
01:06:05,920 --> 01:06:07,520
Speaker 2: was I was kind of like you, I really haven't

1275
01:06:07,640 --> 01:06:09,200
Speaker 2: had a read on this one. I haven't done much

1276
01:06:09,200 --> 01:06:11,000
Speaker 2: with it. I feel like now I'm gonna be end

1277
01:06:11,080 --> 01:06:12,680
Speaker 2: up on Denver. Like You're right, this is a nice

1278
01:06:12,720 --> 01:06:15,840
Speaker 2: spot for Denver, not just defensively but offensively. I think

1279
01:06:15,840 --> 01:06:18,680
Speaker 2: they'll be able to move the ball as well. So yeah,

1280
01:06:18,960 --> 01:06:20,840
Speaker 2: gim me Denver minus five and a half.

1281
01:06:21,040 --> 01:06:23,680
Speaker 1: I love Denver here. Love it feels like a great spot,

1282
01:06:24,680 --> 01:06:29,880
Speaker 1: all right. Boosted money line underdog parlay each week, we

1283
01:06:29,920 --> 01:06:32,560
Speaker 1: give out a two team moneyline dog parlay. Bet three

1284
01:06:32,600 --> 01:06:35,320
Speaker 1: six five boosts the odds and highlights it on their

1285
01:06:35,360 --> 01:06:40,120
Speaker 1: site all weekend under both games. Remember, both games are

1286
01:06:40,160 --> 01:06:43,080
Speaker 1: eligible for Bet three six fives to early payout promo,

1287
01:06:43,120 --> 01:06:45,040
Speaker 1: where your money line pick gets marked as a win

1288
01:06:45,520 --> 01:06:49,040
Speaker 1: if that team takes a seventeen point lead, even if

1289
01:06:49,120 --> 01:06:51,000
Speaker 1: they lose. If you want to bet this, better to

1290
01:06:51,080 --> 01:06:56,640
Speaker 1: bet three sixty five. This week's boosted parlay the New

1291
01:06:56,720 --> 01:07:00,720
Speaker 1: York Jets and the Philadelphia Eagles. I'm glad you say

1292
01:07:00,800 --> 01:07:02,640
Speaker 1: if you like the Eagles, take them on the money line,

1293
01:07:02,680 --> 01:07:04,920
Speaker 1: because I sort of mentioned I wanted to take the Eagles,

1294
01:07:04,920 --> 01:07:06,320
Speaker 1: but I never got a reaction from you, so I

1295
01:07:06,360 --> 01:07:07,640
Speaker 1: didn't know if you were going to come after me.

1296
01:07:08,160 --> 01:07:12,360
Speaker 1: Currently boosted from plus three seventy two to plus four

1297
01:07:12,600 --> 01:07:15,840
Speaker 1: forty act now before the price is change. Find the

1298
01:07:15,840 --> 01:07:18,520
Speaker 1: boost under both the New York Jets and Philadephia Eagles game

1299
01:07:18,560 --> 01:07:21,280
Speaker 1: pages our money line underdog Around Robin, we've talked about

1300
01:07:21,280 --> 01:07:23,280
Speaker 1: a couple of them.

1301
01:07:23,480 --> 01:07:27,120
Speaker 3: There will come up pay day, Hallado, Yo wanna pay day?

1302
01:07:27,440 --> 01:07:29,960
Speaker 1: There will come up pay day someday.

1303
01:07:30,080 --> 01:07:34,360
Speaker 3: Someday, there will come up heayday Halla Loo, Yo, wanna

1304
01:07:34,480 --> 01:07:34,960
Speaker 3: pay Day?

1305
01:07:35,680 --> 01:07:37,520
Speaker 5: I will come up Payday.

1306
01:07:37,120 --> 01:07:43,720
Speaker 1: Someday, Jacksonville. I would say, Philly Simon, Yeah, I would

1307
01:07:43,760 --> 01:07:47,600
Speaker 1: say the Jets obviously, I would throw in Tennessee.

1308
01:07:48,360 --> 01:07:51,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, last leg. Are we allowed to put the Giants

1309
01:07:51,640 --> 01:07:52,120
Speaker 2: in or now?

1310
01:07:52,800 --> 01:07:53,960
Speaker 1: Yeah? We can do whatever we want.

1311
01:07:54,000 --> 01:07:55,160
Speaker 2: Oh, I don't know if you want to do strictly

1312
01:07:55,200 --> 01:07:56,440
Speaker 2: Sunday because you said earlier.

1313
01:07:56,480 --> 01:07:58,080
Speaker 1: No, I want to do strictly Sunday just for the

1314
01:07:58,080 --> 01:08:00,280
Speaker 1: boost of LA. But let's do the Giant.

1315
01:08:00,400 --> 01:08:02,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, because I mean I'm looking at right now live

1316
01:08:02,520 --> 01:08:04,880
Speaker 2: in the action app. We've seen the four disappear. It's

1317
01:08:04,880 --> 01:08:06,480
Speaker 2: going down to three and a half of most books.

1318
01:08:06,520 --> 01:08:09,120
Speaker 2: So wow, seems like the professional money is coming in

1319
01:08:09,160 --> 01:08:10,919
Speaker 2: on that Giant side. And now as we're talking about

1320
01:08:10,960 --> 01:08:13,479
Speaker 2: a live so yeah, let's let's let's get a let's

1321
01:08:13,480 --> 01:08:15,720
Speaker 2: get the dog in there for Thanksgiving fun.

1322
01:08:15,960 --> 01:08:23,080
Speaker 1: All right, Jacksonville, Tennessee. Jets, Eagles and Giants for the underdog.

1323
01:08:23,240 --> 01:08:25,360
Speaker 2: Thank Eagles are in there. What a what an ugly

1324
01:08:25,400 --> 01:08:25,920
Speaker 2: list that is?

1325
01:08:25,960 --> 01:08:29,760
Speaker 1: Oh my god, it's terrible. Uh, it's only Tuesday. I

1326
01:08:29,800 --> 01:08:31,880
Speaker 1: know you've been sort of running around for the past

1327
01:08:31,880 --> 01:08:34,599
Speaker 1: forty eight hours. Any biggest bets yet.

1328
01:08:35,880 --> 01:08:38,840
Speaker 2: Uh honestly only because of Thanksgiving. I've been a little

1329
01:08:38,920 --> 01:08:40,840
Speaker 2: Joe public on where I've really put a lot of

1330
01:08:40,880 --> 01:08:43,760
Speaker 2: my money early on here into this Thanksgiving slate. So

1331
01:08:44,280 --> 01:08:46,800
Speaker 2: uh yeah, the no doubt the biggest bet for me

1332
01:08:46,920 --> 01:08:49,280
Speaker 2: so far as green Bay minus three, like that one

1333
01:08:49,320 --> 01:08:51,360
Speaker 2: I've just as soon as I number went to three,

1334
01:08:51,439 --> 01:08:53,599
Speaker 2: It's like, when I got this call, that's what I'm

1335
01:08:53,600 --> 01:08:55,240
Speaker 2: about to go do. It's just go camer that number

1336
01:08:55,240 --> 01:08:57,880
Speaker 2: at the books where they move it back up. And yeah,

1337
01:08:57,920 --> 01:09:02,400
Speaker 2: obviously it's it's born in Chalky. But if you're if

1338
01:09:02,400 --> 01:09:04,200
Speaker 2: you're just someone that just likes doing the money line

1339
01:09:04,240 --> 01:09:09,719
Speaker 2: parlays Green Bay Packers money line with Detroit's money line,

1340
01:09:09,720 --> 01:09:12,360
Speaker 2: I think it's like minus one ten minus one fifteen

1341
01:09:12,720 --> 01:09:16,280
Speaker 2: partly together. That's fun. It's like I kind of I

1342
01:09:16,360 --> 01:09:18,599
Speaker 2: kind of like that if if you're scared off by

1343
01:09:18,600 --> 01:09:21,800
Speaker 2: the big number of Detroit. Obviously I'm not. So if

1344
01:09:21,840 --> 01:09:23,960
Speaker 2: I'm I've made personally I'm a crazy person. I just

1345
01:09:23,960 --> 01:09:26,519
Speaker 2: parlayed the minus three with the minus ten. So do

1346
01:09:26,600 --> 01:09:28,920
Speaker 2: whatever you want, people, But if you if you you

1347
01:09:29,000 --> 01:09:30,639
Speaker 2: far are scared about that big number, there are ways

1348
01:09:30,680 --> 01:09:32,400
Speaker 2: around that Detroit Lines minus ten.

1349
01:09:32,960 --> 01:09:37,519
Speaker 1: Scoot throughlet when all hope is lost, all this left

1350
01:09:37,600 --> 01:09:38,160
Speaker 1: is relief.

1351
01:09:39,880 --> 01:09:42,320
Speaker 2: Let's play scoot Roulette.

1352
01:09:45,320 --> 01:09:46,559
Speaker 1: I'm going with the Denver Broncos.

1353
01:09:46,880 --> 01:09:48,599
Speaker 2: Wow, there we go.

1354
01:09:48,840 --> 01:09:51,720
Speaker 1: Okay, how about you, I'll fuck it.

1355
01:09:51,800 --> 01:09:55,880
Speaker 2: I'll go chalk with no No. I gotta I gotta win, man,

1356
01:09:55,880 --> 01:09:58,360
Speaker 2: I've been slipping. Give me Green Bay minus three.

1357
01:09:59,000 --> 01:10:00,360
Speaker 1: Wow, Green Bay. Okay.

1358
01:10:00,479 --> 01:10:02,519
Speaker 2: I was honestly to go to the Bills, but I

1359
01:10:02,560 --> 01:10:04,439
Speaker 2: don't want to take the risk of taking that bad

1360
01:10:04,560 --> 01:10:05,280
Speaker 2: number at seven.

1361
01:10:06,240 --> 01:10:08,679
Speaker 1: Before we get out of here, let's bring in Director

1362
01:10:08,720 --> 01:10:13,519
Speaker 1: of Research Evan Abrams for the final word. Evan, don't

1363
01:10:13,560 --> 01:10:20,080
Speaker 1: make us sad. The last word with Evan Abrams, we're.

1364
01:10:19,840 --> 01:10:23,840
Speaker 3: Finished talking Happy Thanksgiving boys, and all thirty two teams

1365
01:10:23,880 --> 01:10:25,680
Speaker 3: in action. So we've got a lot to go through here,

1366
01:10:25,720 --> 01:10:29,240
Speaker 3: so let me just pound through this. NFL underdogs is

1367
01:10:29,280 --> 01:10:31,920
Speaker 3: six plus points, are thirty six, twenty three and two

1368
01:10:32,040 --> 01:10:35,040
Speaker 3: against the spread this season. They are actually nineteen and

1369
01:10:35,120 --> 01:10:36,920
Speaker 3: forty three on the money line. You'd be up a

1370
01:10:36,960 --> 01:10:41,040
Speaker 3: sixteen percent return on investment betting those dogs. Those nineteen

1371
01:10:41,080 --> 01:10:44,040
Speaker 3: wins through a twelve weeks is the most in the

1372
01:10:44,120 --> 01:10:48,280
Speaker 3: NFL since two thousand and four. So big dogs barking,

1373
01:10:48,479 --> 01:10:50,840
Speaker 3: and we're going to go the opposite here because it

1374
01:10:50,920 --> 01:10:54,080
Speaker 3: is Thanksgiving. All three home teams right now are the

1375
01:10:54,080 --> 01:10:58,120
Speaker 3: public side on Thursday and even oh actually no, the

1376
01:10:58,200 --> 01:11:01,599
Speaker 3: Raiders are on Friday. So all Thursday public sides are

1377
01:11:01,680 --> 01:11:05,360
Speaker 3: five hundred. Ats are better every year since twenty fourteen

1378
01:11:05,680 --> 01:11:08,840
Speaker 3: and eleven of the past twelve years on Thanksgiving, and

1379
01:11:09,200 --> 01:11:12,479
Speaker 3: at that seventy four percent threshold, they are nine to

1380
01:11:12,560 --> 01:11:14,720
Speaker 3: zero straight up and against the spread in the bet

1381
01:11:14,760 --> 01:11:17,680
Speaker 3: Labs database, So keep an eye on those bet percentages.

1382
01:11:17,720 --> 01:11:19,479
Speaker 3: Now let's go into a few of these games. So

1383
01:11:20,040 --> 01:11:22,599
Speaker 3: the Bears are in a very unique spot. It is

1384
01:11:22,720 --> 01:11:26,519
Speaker 3: very rare to have an overtime game on Sunday and

1385
01:11:26,640 --> 01:11:29,240
Speaker 3: have to play on Thursday, especially the fact that they're

1386
01:11:29,240 --> 01:11:31,200
Speaker 3: going to have to play at noon. Last twenty years,

1387
01:11:31,400 --> 01:11:33,760
Speaker 3: teams to play off an overtime game and then play

1388
01:11:33,840 --> 01:11:37,439
Speaker 3: on three days rest or less six and twenty straight up,

1389
01:11:37,560 --> 01:11:41,479
Speaker 3: three and twenty three against the spread. Absolutely terrible numbers,

1390
01:11:41,640 --> 01:11:44,200
Speaker 3: really difficult to overcome. So see if they can cover

1391
01:11:44,320 --> 01:11:49,080
Speaker 3: the ten on Thanksgiving. Love that stat, Evan, love it crazy.

1392
01:11:49,160 --> 01:11:52,439
Speaker 3: So now let's talk specifics here. So favorites in night

1393
01:11:52,479 --> 01:11:55,720
Speaker 3: games on Thanksgiving, which would be the Packers on Thanksgiving

1394
01:11:55,760 --> 01:11:58,360
Speaker 3: this year thirteen and four against the spread since they

1395
01:11:58,400 --> 01:12:02,560
Speaker 3: started the three game holidays six and Simon alluded to

1396
01:12:02,600 --> 01:12:06,600
Speaker 3: this earlier thirty two temperature or colder freezing temperatures in

1397
01:12:06,640 --> 01:12:09,920
Speaker 3: franchise history. Dolphins are eleven and twenty eight straight up.

1398
01:12:10,000 --> 01:12:13,240
Speaker 3: They've lost their last nine games in those cold temperatures.

1399
01:12:13,320 --> 01:12:16,720
Speaker 3: Ryan Tannehill beat the Steelers in twenty thirteen, is their

1400
01:12:16,800 --> 01:12:20,479
Speaker 3: last win in freezing tempts. Two more for you as

1401
01:12:20,520 --> 01:12:22,640
Speaker 3: a favorite of six points or more. The Chiefs this

1402
01:12:22,720 --> 01:12:27,400
Speaker 3: year six and oh straight up, five and one against

1403
01:12:27,400 --> 01:12:30,080
Speaker 3: the spread in those games. The fact that Kansas City

1404
01:12:30,160 --> 01:12:33,479
Speaker 3: is undefeated straight up and defeated against the spread as

1405
01:12:33,479 --> 01:12:36,559
Speaker 3: a six plus point favorite. Only one team has even

1406
01:12:36,640 --> 01:12:39,920
Speaker 3: played six plus games in that spot. In the first

1407
01:12:39,960 --> 01:12:43,479
Speaker 3: eleven weeks, it had no covers, the ninety seven Packers.

1408
01:12:43,520 --> 01:12:47,919
Speaker 3: It has been a long long time, an extremely unique spot.

1409
01:12:48,080 --> 01:12:49,760
Speaker 3: I actually looked this one up and I'm going to

1410
01:12:49,800 --> 01:12:52,479
Speaker 3: talk Sunday games here because it is the biggest game

1411
01:12:52,600 --> 01:12:56,719
Speaker 3: of the weekend Baltimore and Philly, and this situation actually

1412
01:12:56,720 --> 01:12:59,599
Speaker 3: happened last night with Jim Harbaugh. But Nick Siriani has

1413
01:12:59,680 --> 01:13:03,360
Speaker 3: never faced Lamar Jackson before, and Lamar Jackson's ninety five

1414
01:13:03,400 --> 01:13:05,639
Speaker 3: career starts he has faced a coach for the first

1415
01:13:05,680 --> 01:13:09,759
Speaker 3: time forty four times. He is thirty seven and seven

1416
01:13:10,240 --> 01:13:13,960
Speaker 3: straight up against those coaches the first time he faces them.

1417
01:13:14,040 --> 01:13:17,160
Speaker 3: A very difficult situation with Baltimore. See if it happens

1418
01:13:17,200 --> 01:13:19,840
Speaker 3: again next week. And then finally, I'll leave you with

1419
01:13:19,880 --> 01:13:22,920
Speaker 3: a Thanksgiving note And I looked this up earlier. Insane.

1420
01:13:23,040 --> 01:13:26,120
Speaker 3: So the Lions and Cowboys play every year on Thanksgiving.

1421
01:13:27,000 --> 01:13:29,880
Speaker 3: They haven't gone two and oh straight up and two

1422
01:13:29,960 --> 01:13:32,759
Speaker 3: and oh against the spread as a group since nineteen

1423
01:13:32,920 --> 01:13:36,839
Speaker 3: ninety four, so we will see if they can continue

1424
01:13:36,840 --> 01:13:40,040
Speaker 3: that streak and one of the teams somehow fails as

1425
01:13:40,040 --> 01:13:41,000
Speaker 3: they always tend to do.

1426
01:13:41,520 --> 01:13:43,679
Speaker 1: Wow, I think we believe the Lions will win straight

1427
01:13:43,760 --> 01:13:45,960
Speaker 1: up in against the spread and the Cowboys could lose

1428
01:13:46,200 --> 01:13:50,920
Speaker 1: and lose against the spread. Evan, great work. We are

1429
01:13:50,960 --> 01:13:55,719
Speaker 1: thankful for you, your deep base of knowledge, your big,

1430
01:13:55,920 --> 01:13:59,920
Speaker 1: beautiful brain. As a reminder of the Favorites podcast is

1431
01:14:00,040 --> 01:14:02,200
Speaker 1: resented by Bet three sixty five and now new Bet

1432
01:14:02,240 --> 01:14:05,040
Speaker 1: three sixty five. Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars

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01:14:05,080 --> 01:14:08,080
Speaker 1: in bonus bets. When you bet five dollars, sign up

1434
01:14:08,400 --> 01:14:11,679
Speaker 1: using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars, place a bet

1435
01:14:11,720 --> 01:14:13,919
Speaker 1: for five dollars to get one hundred and fifty dollars

1436
01:14:13,960 --> 01:14:17,800
Speaker 1: in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals,

1437
01:14:17,840 --> 01:14:22,320
Speaker 1: player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary.

1438
01:14:22,320 --> 01:14:24,640
Speaker 1: At bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one or

1439
01:14:24,680 --> 01:14:29,519
Speaker 1: older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,

1440
01:14:29,560 --> 01:14:33,840
Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia. We're eighteen and older in Kentucky.

1441
01:14:34,320 --> 01:14:37,720
Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight

1442
01:14:37,840 --> 01:14:41,679
Speaker 1: hundred bets off in Iowa terms conditions restrictions apply. Simon

1443
01:14:41,760 --> 01:14:43,720
Speaker 1: and I will be back with our next episode of

1444
01:14:43,720 --> 01:14:47,200
Speaker 1: The Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Sunday night

1445
01:14:48,000 --> 01:14:51,920
Speaker 1: to recap our NFL week thirteen picks. We do have

1446
01:14:51,960 --> 01:14:55,600
Speaker 1: a Power Hour Thanksgiving special tomorrow three pm Eastern on

1447
01:14:55,640 --> 01:14:58,439
Speaker 1: the Action Network YouTube page. Don't forget sign up for

1448
01:14:58,479 --> 01:15:01,559
Speaker 1: the Favorites contest. Favorite It's a Actionnetwork dot com still

1449
01:15:01,600 --> 01:15:05,799
Speaker 1: giving away weekly prizes. Download us from Spotify, Apple pods

1450
01:15:05,800 --> 01:15:09,160
Speaker 1: wherever you get your pods. Rate review, subscribe, leaves five stars,

1451
01:15:09,479 --> 01:15:12,880
Speaker 1: say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time.

1452
01:15:13,320 --> 01:15:13,720
Speaker 5: Love You.

1453
01:15:21,040 --> 01:15:25,599
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1454
01:15:25,600 --> 01:15:28,400
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

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Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler