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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Do us proud read enough? They're running again? So smoothe

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Speaker 2: so sweet.

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Speaker 3: Slipid sixteen just glorious execution.

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Speaker 2: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 2: thousand percent of the time. How shot with that?

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Speaker 1: Shop with mind and buddy, and that's why you see

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Speaker 1: your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 2: Look at his movements, the most.

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Speaker 4: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 2: Nobody picks them. Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 3: Again the love it's left to of the wide eyed

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Speaker 3: drill bibews, how old earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 4: Hello, and welcome back to Wonder Goal, the soccer betting

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Speaker 4: podcast from the Action Network. I'm Anthony Dubundo, joined as

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Speaker 4: a by BJ Cunningham. Michael Leeboff is out tonight. He's

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Speaker 4: becoming a part time member of this podcast. Not actually,

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Speaker 4: we still love him. Everton won again though, and he's

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Speaker 4: partying the darts.

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Speaker 2: The darts are going on.

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Speaker 4: I mean, somebody actually mentioned in our discord when they

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Speaker 4: could get some darts content and I would have to

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Speaker 4: send out the bat signal. But Michael's too busy partying

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Speaker 4: on the streets of Merseyside in Liverpool. After Everton's you know,

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Speaker 4: another win and he's getting ready for their big League

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Speaker 4: Cup tie. We're going to talk League Cup quarterfinals three

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Speaker 4: of the four matches that we have takes slash projections for,

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Speaker 4: and then we're going to get into some of the

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Speaker 4: midweek Bundesliga Aliga League uh, you know leagues. We don't

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Speaker 4: necessarily go as deep into this this on this podcast

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Speaker 4: because we spend so much time capping in the Premier

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Speaker 4: League that we want to get a little bit of

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Speaker 4: love for them while they have their shine during the midweek.

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Speaker 4: But before we do get into the League Cup, remember

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Speaker 4: that wonder Goal is presented by bet three sixty five

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Speaker 4: and Bet three sixty five doesn't do ordinary. Believes that

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Speaker 4: every sport should be epic. Every tournament, every game, every point,

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Speaker 4: every play, from the moments that are legendary to the

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Speaker 4: ones that fly under the radar. See for yourself when

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Speaker 4: you sign up today with promo code Action and you

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Speaker 4: get three hundred and sixty five dollars in bonus bets

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Speaker 4: when you bet just one dollar. Whatever the sport, whatever

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Speaker 4: the moment, it's never ordinary. At Bet three sixty five

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Speaker 4: must be twenty one or older, and it must be

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Speaker 4: present in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia.

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Speaker 4: If you or someone you know has a gambling problem

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Speaker 4: and one's help, call one eight hundred gambler in Colorado, Kentucky,

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Speaker 4: New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia, or one eight hundred bets

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Speaker 4: off in Iowa. Terms and conditions may apply. Okay, let's

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Speaker 4: start with the Toffees. Everton did it again, another great win.

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Speaker 4: They were up inside ten minutes against Burnley over the weekend.

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Speaker 4: You know, we said like, is there a time coming

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Speaker 4: to buy high? I still think that the market is

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Speaker 4: still catching on to how good this team is. If

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Speaker 4: you just looked at the underlying numbers. It wasn't like

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Speaker 4: a astounding performance against Burnley, but it was very workman like.

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Speaker 4: And now on points, Everton's amassed the eighth most points

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Speaker 4: in the league this season. They have an expected goal

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Speaker 4: differential that would put them in the top half and

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Speaker 4: the market is kind of starting to price them like

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Speaker 4: a top half team a little bit. Not necessarily in

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Speaker 4: this match though, they're home against Fulham plus one twenty

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Speaker 4: on the three way money line. BJA. We'll start with you.

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Speaker 4: You know, we successfully faded Fulham over the weekend. Did

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Speaker 4: we get a little bit lucky? I would say so,

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Speaker 4: you know, Raoul Jamenez decided to whatever the hell that was,

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Speaker 4: jump into the player and get the red card in

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Speaker 4: the first half and then it was handway traffic in

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Speaker 4: the twenty third minutes, So a resounding win for our magpie.

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Speaker 4: Still think that price was very wrong?

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Speaker 2: Yep?

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Speaker 4: Do we not also think this price is wrong? I mean,

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Speaker 4: how much worse is Everton than the makeshift Newcastle and

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Speaker 4: we're getting Everton at plus money to go against Fulham?

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Speaker 2: Right?

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Speaker 1: Well, what's funny, Anthony is that we saw this match

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Speaker 1: on opening day of the Premier League season and if

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Speaker 1: you remember, Everton created like three expected goals, they couldn't

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Speaker 1: find the back.

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Speaker 2: In the end.

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Speaker 1: Fulham at one transition opportunity to score and won the

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Speaker 1: match one nothing. Everton closed at plus one thirty in

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Speaker 1: that match, So out of perception, how much better is

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Speaker 1: Everton than what we thought coming into the season. I

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Speaker 1: would say wildly better, and mainly it's because of their

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Speaker 1: defense has improved drastically from last season. If you remember,

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Speaker 1: Diyce had to be incredibly aggressive because he was in

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Speaker 1: the relegation battles, so they were pressing teams high, they

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Speaker 1: were playing more open, they were playing more transitional, and

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Speaker 1: they actually ended up allowing one point seven nonpl the

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Speaker 1: xtie per ninety last season under Ditch. This season they

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Speaker 1: haven't had to be as aggressive. They've sat back deeper

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Speaker 1: in his traditional low block and then they've come out

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Speaker 1: and they've pressed teams when they feel they can win the.

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Speaker 2: Ball off of them.

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Speaker 1: They're only allowing one point one point one non penalty

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Speaker 1: x she for ninety and I've conceided the second fewest

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Speaker 1: pick scoring chances. So they have drastically improved defensively, whereas Fulham.

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Speaker 1: I know we talked about how crazy this offensive run

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Speaker 1: has been. Or they've beaten both west Ham and Nottingham

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Speaker 1: Forest both five to nil, but they're due to regress.

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Speaker 1: I don't really care that the men has got a

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Speaker 1: red card and that regression is still supposed to come,

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Speaker 1: because in the four matches prior to the Newcastle match

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Speaker 1: they scored sixteen goals at eight point nine expected. And

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Speaker 1: now defensively this season they're allowing one point sixty three

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Speaker 1: non penalty x cheap for ninety minutes were sent, basically

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Speaker 1: what they allowed last season. So the defense really hasn't

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Speaker 1: gotten better from last season. So now we're in a

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Speaker 1: situation where I think that Everton should be priced way

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Speaker 1: higher from the plus one thirty that we saw at

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Speaker 1: the beginning of the season because they have been wildly

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Speaker 1: better than the expectations than we thought at the beginning

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Speaker 1: of the season. And there's a massive home road split

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Speaker 1: one in this in this match because Everton at Goodison

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Speaker 1: Park has about a seven expected gold differential, whereas Fulham

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Speaker 1: away from creating Cottage has a minus twelve expected gold differential.

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Speaker 2: So I've Everton projected a minus one twenty eight.

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Speaker 1: So anything Everton minus one oh seven or better is

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Speaker 1: good enough for me.

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Speaker 2: They're going to rotate them.

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Speaker 1: Either team will honestly rotate because the trophy means a

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Speaker 1: lot to either of these teams. So we're gonna ride

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Speaker 1: the Toffees once again, and we're just gonna keep betting

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Speaker 1: them until the market prices them appropriately for how good

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Speaker 1: they are.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm not gonna say that it makes a huge difference,

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Speaker 4: but Roul is suspended now, so he will miss this

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Speaker 4: match and the upcoming couple of prem matches as well.

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Speaker 4: This does count toward the three games you get for

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Speaker 4: the red card, Sol out, tim Reem is still out.

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Speaker 4: I thought, you know, the downgrade from him to Tosuin

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Speaker 4: was noticeable. I thought I didn't think he was particularly

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Speaker 4: good in the game against Newcastle prior to the red

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Speaker 4: card either. I thought they exploited him a little bit.

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Speaker 4: And then you know, the question is who is the backup?

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Speaker 4: I mean, Roul hasn't been good, like we've talked about

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Speaker 4: Jimnez this year, but the backup options are venetious and

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Speaker 4: Rodrigo Munize. Muniz is the young guy that they turned

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Speaker 4: to briefly when Raoul was in bad form and said,

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Speaker 4: you know, can you save us and do anything of

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Speaker 4: Note the returns are way too small to johnny meaningful conclusions,

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Speaker 4: but he was at point three to one x g

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Speaker 4: P ninety and ten nineties in the championship last year Middlesbrough,

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Speaker 4: So like, I'm not really gonna hang my hat on

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Speaker 4: that guy to make a formidable attack. Fulham's a very

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Speaker 4: aggressive team, right They want to win tackles, interceptions like

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Speaker 4: between Paulinia Pereira, Wobe and Robinson. They're extremely aggressive and

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Speaker 4: they it's basically like we're either gonna win the ball

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Speaker 4: in the midfield or we're gonna clear it off the line.

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Speaker 4: But like Everton just kind of bypasses that they just

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Speaker 4: go over the top. They play so direct that I

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Speaker 4: think it can cause problems for Fulham. So I'm in

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Speaker 4: agreement from the number from the matchup perspective that it's

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Speaker 4: gonna be the Toffees. I don't expect rotation really from

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Speaker 4: either team. I know how insane like this last month

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Speaker 4: has been with regards to matches, but like this is

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Speaker 4: a cup quarterfinal. Both of these teams are now pretty

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Speaker 4: safe from like relegation trouble. They're neither are like particularly

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Speaker 4: injured to the point where they need to rotate the

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Speaker 4: only healthy guys they have left, which we're gonna talk

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Speaker 4: about in a minute. So yeah, Everton for me back

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Speaker 4: the Toffees again. I'm just gonna keep back in the Toffees.

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Speaker 4: And then they have Spurs this weekend in the league,

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Speaker 4: so we will.

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Speaker 2: See this cup.

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Speaker 1: This Cup draw is wide open too, because there's no City,

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Speaker 1: there's no Arsenal, there's no Aston Villa, there's no Todd Them.

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Speaker 1: It's really just Liverpool, Newcastle and Chelsea, which.

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Speaker 4: Right heavyweights in the Semis, but right, You're also going

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Speaker 4: to get into Port Vale in the semies.

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Speaker 2: It's true.

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Speaker 1: So this, yeah, you could there is a path that

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Speaker 1: you could, like if you get get a good draw,

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Speaker 1: you're going playing a final, potentially have a chance to

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Speaker 1: win trophy.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, this means a lot to these teams.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so I expect full motivation. Cup matches are always weird.

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Speaker 4: You know, there's one we're gonna talk about as well

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Speaker 4: where I'm just like, I don't really know how to

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Speaker 4: bet this, but Everton for both of us. All right,

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Speaker 4: Moving on Chelsea Newcastle. They met at Saint James's Park

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Speaker 4: a few weeks ago. Newcastle closed to pick them at home.

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Speaker 4: This was that kind of at the start of like,

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Speaker 4: they had all these injuries. The market clearly downgraded them.

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Speaker 4: They had a couple bad performances. They came home, they

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Speaker 4: played Chelsea, they looked like vintage. Newcastle beat him four

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Speaker 4: to one. Then they had some more bad performances. Then

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Speaker 4: they beat United, then they had some more bad performances

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Speaker 4: and now Newcastle comes in here. I don't know what

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Speaker 4: we're going to get from them. Alexander Esoch did not

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Speaker 4: make the bench on Saturday. They are now out of Europe.

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Speaker 4: That could change the calculus a little bit for them.

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Speaker 4: But this, this screams to me for Newcastle as like

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Speaker 4: a team who is in a really bad spot because

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Speaker 4: they have played so many minutes and their system is

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Speaker 4: so reliant on having energy and pressing and winning the

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Speaker 4: ball high and they haven't. Not only have they not

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Speaker 4: been able to replicate it away from home, but like

200
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Speaker 4: if they have to go to the bench, does the

201
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Speaker 4: form drop considerably? Like I don't think they're going to

202
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Speaker 4: run Callum Wilson out there for a full ninety in

203
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Speaker 4: this match, knowing that he just played midweek in the

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Speaker 4: Champions League, then he played the weekend and now you

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Speaker 4: know they have a weekend match, then Boxing Day then

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Speaker 4: New Year's Like this comes at a weird point in

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Speaker 4: the calendar where Newcastle has played way more matches this

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Speaker 4: month than Chelsea, and I think that has an accumulative effect.

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Speaker 4: With that being said, the number is clearly shaded more

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Speaker 4: towards Chelsea here than I would make it on a

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Speaker 4: neutral or at Chelsea. Rather, I have Chelsea projected like

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Speaker 4: plus one point fifteen, So like, am I gonna lay

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Speaker 4: minus one thirty? No, I'm definitely not so That's where

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Speaker 4: I'm kind of out on this game. I go back

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Speaker 4: and forth a lot on what to expect. Part of

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Speaker 4: me wants to play the over because I think if

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Speaker 4: Wilson or Eastac plays, this game has the potential to

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Speaker 4: be very back and forth from you know, Newcastle's defense

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Speaker 4: falling off a cliff away from home and Kieren Tripier

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Speaker 4: we'll be back, which I thought was a big absence

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Speaker 4: in the full of match. You could see even like

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Speaker 4: early on before they broke through. Finally, like not having

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Speaker 4: their best creative player on the ball in the final

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Speaker 4: third really did matter. But yeah, this number is tricky

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Speaker 4: for me because it's price in that Newcastle's gonna sit

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Speaker 4: players and rotate and like not care as much, which

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Speaker 4: I agree with, but like it's kind of priced in.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I do like Newcastle here, Like you said, it

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Speaker 1: is priced in. It is Newcastle on the road and

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Speaker 1: this comes at a really bad spot. But it's a

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Speaker 1: typical for me, bad spot, but also a great number

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Speaker 1: on Newcastle, and I think we have to talk about

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Speaker 1: I mean, obviously, you know, circumstances were a little different

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Speaker 1: in Newcastle's four to one win against Chelsea. It was

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Speaker 1: coming off in a National break. They were just getting

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Speaker 1: guys healthy and they had the energy to actually press

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Speaker 1: them and they destroyed them. But I think the bigger

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Speaker 1: question is is is Chelsea actually a good build up team,

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Speaker 1: because we've now seen it time and time again where

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Speaker 1: they've had to face at least decent pressing teams and

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Speaker 1: they haven't really been able to do much. They've had

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Speaker 1: good performances against you know, Luton and Sheffield United and

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Speaker 1: teams will sit deep, but when they went and played Newcastle,

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Speaker 1: Newcastle forced nine high turnovers and had a pass per

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Speaker 1: defense at action of.

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Speaker 2: Seven point one.

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Speaker 1: Arsenal and Manchester United force twelve high turnovers against them.

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Speaker 1: City even forced twelve high turn or seven high turnovers,

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Speaker 1: and Brighton although it forced a lot of high turnovers,

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Speaker 1: they had to pass the per defensive action of five

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Speaker 1: point six. So that is concerning whether Newcastle decides to

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Speaker 1: all out press, which I'm not sure they have the

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Speaker 1: energy to do. They'll probably sit in a four or

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Speaker 1: five to one mid block and press from that. They

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Speaker 1: do have a couple injuries that are concerning Joe Linton

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Speaker 1: being out, shar being out, but Dan Byrne returning is

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Speaker 1: obviously a huge for them, he can slot into that

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Speaker 1: center back role and they play Liver Mento out of

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Speaker 1: left back. But the other thing that's concerning for Chelsea is,

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Speaker 1: and this is kind of what happened when the last

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Speaker 1: time against Newcastle, is that they are not only do they,

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Speaker 1: like I just mentioned, commit a lot of high turnovers,

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Speaker 1: but they're also pretty bad in transition defense their nineteenth

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Speaker 1: and final thirdy box entry conversion rate aloud and like

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Speaker 1: I said, it's partly because they commit so many high turnovers.

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Speaker 1: But again, they're just really not that good in transition,

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Speaker 1: like Cato and Enzo Fernandez really haven't been what the

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Speaker 1: price text says they should be at this point in

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Speaker 1: the season. Well, they eventually become a great midfield pairing,

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Speaker 1: of course they will, like that's not you know, it's obviously.

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Speaker 2: Very early on.

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Speaker 4: I'm not certain of that personally.

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Speaker 2: Really interesting.

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Speaker 1: No, we'll see, Yeah, it doesn't matter this match, but yeah,

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Speaker 1: we'll see if that actually that pairing actually works out.

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Speaker 1: But anyway, yeah, again, Newcastle some injuries to deal with here,

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Speaker 1: but again they've been getting healthy and getting some of

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Speaker 1: their depth pieces back.

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Speaker 2: So again bad spot. It's road Newcastle.

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Speaker 1: They basically all their points the season have basically come

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Speaker 1: at home. All their big wins have coming home. They

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Speaker 1: basically have done nothing away from home. But again we're

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Speaker 1: getting a plus a half at plus money. And that's

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Speaker 1: what's kind of crazy to me is that the market

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Speaker 1: clearly is still in love with Chelsea and they're clearly

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Speaker 1: still downgrading Newcastle because of all these injuries, because of

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Speaker 1: the fixture pile up, and because they're on the road.

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Speaker 1: So I'm going to take the price. I feel like

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Speaker 1: I would have regret it if I didn't do it.

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Speaker 1: So Newcastle plus a half plus one oh five four,

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Speaker 1: accounting for injuries, to fix your pilot and all this

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Speaker 1: different stuff. If this was just full strength versus full strength,

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Speaker 1: I would have Newcastle to straight pick them here against Chelsea.

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Speaker 1: So how drastically do you change that to what the

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Speaker 1: price is now? I think it's gone way too far.

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Speaker 1: So I like Newcastle plus a half.

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Speaker 4: Yeah. I think there's a case to be made that

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Speaker 4: you like hunt Alts if you like Chelsea. Yeah, you know,

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Speaker 4: if you don't want to lay the one thirty, maybe

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Speaker 4: hunt an Alt. We talked about that with Newcastle Fulham

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Speaker 4: like I think that Chelsea, if they're at it and

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Speaker 4: when they're at their best are clearly a top four team.

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Speaker 4: The market just prices them like they always bring their

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Speaker 4: a game and it's clearly not been the case. I mean,

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Speaker 4: they were dire against Sheffield on Saturday for the large

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Speaker 4: stretches of that match. They ultimately won two nil.

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Speaker 2: And point one x G in the first half.

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Speaker 4: Against problem was Sheffield also had point one x G.

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Speaker 2: That's true, but you have to expect.

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Speaker 4: That begin again. It gets four shots in the first half,

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Speaker 4: all from twenty five plus yards. I just don't really

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Speaker 4: think that it's easy to get a gauge on this matchup.

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Speaker 4: I think it's the turkiest matchup. We don't have much

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Speaker 4: on Middlesburn and port Vale. Look forward to seeing who

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Speaker 4: advances from there. Body rooting for port Vale always like

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Speaker 4: to root for the underdog.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, they're they're like a they're a below average League

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Speaker 1: One team.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, it's it's not great, like really easy competition

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Speaker 3: to get to this point too, So they kind of

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Speaker 3: loft their way into the quarters.

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Speaker 4: And they got the best job they could possibly get.

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Speaker 4: All right, Liverpool West Ham Like, what team does Liverpool

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Speaker 4: play here? I don't know because they have arsenal at

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Speaker 4: the weekend. Yep, I think clop punts and the Liverpool

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Speaker 4: the Liverpool reserve team has not been particularly good. I

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Speaker 4: don't know that he punts punts, but I think he

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Speaker 4: liked half punts.

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Speaker 2: I could see that. Yeah, and I think which is

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Speaker 2: huge obviously.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, and they just had Man United on Sunday, right,

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Speaker 4: so they have a quick around for Wednesday, and they

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Speaker 4: don't really have the depth in the midfield and defense

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Speaker 4: to like rotate players and also still be highly competitive.

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Speaker 4: West Ham is also in Europe, right, so like what

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Speaker 4: do this is for me? It's like what do both

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Speaker 4: teams think about this? From a pure numbers perspective, I

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Speaker 4: actually think west Ham's a little undervalued, but I am

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Speaker 4: not too excited to bet either side of this game.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this is like one of the easiest passes on

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Speaker 1: the board. Again, like I like you mentioned, like if anything,

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Speaker 1: I would probably be back in west Ham here, but

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Speaker 1: I don't really want to do that quite frankly. This

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Speaker 1: match also does kind of scream.

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Speaker 2: Over to me.

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Speaker 4: Yeah it's three and a half, but.

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Speaker 1: It's three and a half, like you know, like that's

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Speaker 1: what I projected at. So yeah, this is like the Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Maybe just wait and see what the lineups are if

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Speaker 2: you can, if you feel like you you know, if

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Speaker 2: Liverpool plays a straight B team, West Hampo is a

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Speaker 2: full strength like catch that.

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Speaker 1: The number on west Ham you know right now. Obviously

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Speaker 1: Liverpool's mind is two forty five. So if you could

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Speaker 1: catch a west Ham plus one and a half like ride,

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Speaker 1: his lineups come out like maybe if Liverpool's.

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Speaker 4: Rotation you can read the tea leaves. Clop's pretty honest

358
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Speaker 4: generally about where he views a match as a team

359
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Speaker 4: or what are he's going to do. You know, we'll

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Speaker 4: get Monday pressers from Clop. They'll ask about what the

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00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:32,360
Speaker 4: situation looks like here, uh for the Wednesday match, and

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Speaker 4: he'll probably give you an insight as to like who

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Speaker 4: might or may not play. They did rotate Thursday, that's notable.

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Speaker 4: West Ham didn't, so you know they they did just rotate.

365
00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:47,399
Speaker 4: But again, like with Liverpool, wait playing Arsenal this weekend

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Speaker 4: and what to this point is the biggest match of

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Speaker 4: their season. I just don't really see Clop going all

368
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Speaker 4: in here so speculatively like west Ham plus three fifties interesting.

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Speaker 4: I thought I thought they looked really good in attack

370
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Speaker 4: today like Kudis was impressive. I still think they're a

371
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Speaker 4: very mediocre team. But again with the favorite being super

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Speaker 4: questionable and this line create only going one way, really

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Speaker 4: only going one way, it would be west Ham or

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Speaker 4: nothing for me plus three fifteen.

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Speaker 1: They play if they played the same line if they

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Speaker 1: played against Saint Zilla on Thursday, yeah it'll be it'll

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Speaker 1: be a West hamp beat.

378
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Speaker 4: All right. We do have one Premier League match. Actually

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Speaker 4: I don't know when this is made up from. I

380
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Speaker 4: don't remember.

381
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Speaker 2: This match was just ahead of time for some reason.

382
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Speaker 4: They must be. But it is the m twenty three

383
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Speaker 4: Darby Crystal Palace and Brighton. Quick trip down from a

384
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Speaker 4: quick trip up from the English South coast for Brighton

385
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Speaker 4: to South London to take on Crystal Palace. You've got

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Speaker 4: nothing here. I'm I'm disappointed because I love the I

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Speaker 4: love the under here. This is a text but midwek

388
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Speaker 4: under for me with a.

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Speaker 1: Half yeah you know under two and a half is

390
00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:06,160
Speaker 1: a plus money right now.

391
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Speaker 2: I have, like, right right out about two point five

392
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Speaker 2: goals projected for this one for me.

393
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Speaker 1: Yeah, so obviously you know, great result for Crystal Palace

394
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Speaker 1: against City like with obviously with a makeshift attack. I

395
00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:26,040
Speaker 1: mean they played Nathaniel Klein at like left wing, which

396
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Speaker 1: I was like when I saw that, I was like,

397
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Speaker 1: are you gotta be kidding me? But again no, I

398
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Speaker 1: you should be back for this. I will will be

399
00:19:36,359 --> 00:19:37,000
Speaker 1: back for this one.

400
00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:39,600
Speaker 2: So at least they'll have which helps their defense, which.

401
00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:42,320
Speaker 1: Helps their defense out of possession stuff. Still know Edward,

402
00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:45,600
Speaker 1: so Mateta is still going to be up top. Joel

403
00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:47,000
Speaker 1: Ward is going to be out, which that think might

404
00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:48,760
Speaker 1: be a good thing for a Crystal Palace at this point,

405
00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:51,479
Speaker 1: and Lerma is also going to be out for them.

406
00:19:51,520 --> 00:19:55,600
Speaker 1: And again uh, and it looks like Dean Henderson might

407
00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:58,240
Speaker 1: be the goal for this one, so that's obviously an

408
00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:01,560
Speaker 1: upgrade and goal. So the situation is getting better for

409
00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:07,639
Speaker 1: Crystal Palace, and this match will probably play out very similarly.

410
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Speaker 2: To the matches that we've seen when Brighton played teams

411
00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:10,280
Speaker 2: that like.

412
00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:11,760
Speaker 1: To play a little blocks, where it'll be a lot

413
00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:14,200
Speaker 1: of a lot of slow progression up the field, where

414
00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:17,080
Speaker 1: Palace will just be cutting off central progression. Brighton will

415
00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:20,280
Speaker 1: continue to try to play through there, so we could

416
00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:22,720
Speaker 1: see an under here. I definitely don't hate to look

417
00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:25,760
Speaker 1: at that. I would love a three but we're not

418
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Speaker 1: going to get that. So yeah, it's just it's it's

419
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Speaker 1: kind of a pass for me, you know Brighton. It's

420
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Speaker 1: it's one of two things. Like it's obviously very game

421
00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:37,600
Speaker 1: state dependent with them, so like an early goal happens

422
00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:39,679
Speaker 1: and the match is kind of chaotic, like you know,

423
00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:41,640
Speaker 1: things get come off the rails. But if there isn't

424
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Speaker 1: that early goal, things just kind of become stale. Or

425
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Speaker 1: if they have a lead, like teams still don't want

426
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Speaker 1: to press them. So yeah, just a pass for me.

427
00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:54,919
Speaker 1: We'll see have Brighton at plus one thirty, so I

428
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Speaker 1: don't I don't really want to make a play on

429
00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:01,840
Speaker 1: Palace without much you know, much of there as they

430
00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:03,159
Speaker 1: will be back for this one, right.

431
00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:10,520
Speaker 4: He came off the bench Saturday, so maybe if we

432
00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:14,240
Speaker 4: can get a decent number. Yeah, So these two attacks

433
00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:19,760
Speaker 4: for about one hundred and sixty five minutes this weekend

434
00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:26,560
Speaker 4: were next level bad. Like Brighton didn't get Brighton didn't

435
00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:29,359
Speaker 4: get a kick until the hour It felt like, uh

436
00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:31,520
Speaker 4: until the hour mark, they got one big chance. The

437
00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:33,240
Speaker 4: whole match that was it. They didn't really do much

438
00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:40,280
Speaker 4: and now granted Brighton goes away to Arsenal Palace goes

439
00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:43,320
Speaker 4: away to City. You don't expect a ton from these

440
00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:47,080
Speaker 4: attacks in those spots, but I did think it was interesting. Palace,

441
00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:52,400
Speaker 4: without their midfield and forward lines ability to press dropped

442
00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:55,680
Speaker 4: so deep, and I think they'll do something very similar right.

443
00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:58,920
Speaker 4: So the difference here is that Brighton couldn't play through

444
00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:02,359
Speaker 4: the Arsenal pressure. They'd eleven high turnovers. Today, Arsenal's press

445
00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:04,399
Speaker 4: was so good that it basically just shut off the

446
00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:08,320
Speaker 4: Arsenal the Brighton attack. That's not going to be a

447
00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:11,600
Speaker 4: problem for Brighton, but we have seen teams go to

448
00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:14,359
Speaker 4: Palace and struggle to break down this very low block.

449
00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:16,919
Speaker 4: We saw Liverpool have problems doing it where they were

450
00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:19,960
Speaker 4: really sluggish and flat. We saw Spurs for a half

451
00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:21,800
Speaker 4: do next to nothing and then get an own goal

452
00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:23,359
Speaker 4: and then the game kind of opened up. But again,

453
00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:27,240
Speaker 4: like if you had undertickets in those games that ended

454
00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:30,160
Speaker 4: both ended two to one, you felt hard done by

455
00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:35,600
Speaker 4: by those numbers. And I still think Palace, you know,

456
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:37,399
Speaker 4: even without the core a for who's out of the

457
00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:40,280
Speaker 4: year now, they're still going to be good enough defensively

458
00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:42,840
Speaker 4: to slow down this Brighton team. If they were good

459
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:45,159
Speaker 4: enough to do it to Spurs and Liverpool were I

460
00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:47,679
Speaker 4: think marginally better to I mean, Liverpool's obviously better, but

461
00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:51,920
Speaker 4: marginally better from Spurs attacking units, then I think they're

462
00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:53,480
Speaker 4: gonna be able to slow down Brighton and make this

463
00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:56,199
Speaker 4: really difficult for them. And then the question is like

464
00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:03,040
Speaker 4: does Palace have enough because like as Mateta Iu is

465
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:04,880
Speaker 4: like kind of intriguing. I don't know that they'll play

466
00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:07,840
Speaker 4: them all though, and I do think that whether they

467
00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:11,800
Speaker 4: rotate Aleasay as a starter or sit him or or

468
00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:13,720
Speaker 4: play them both, like, I think there's a chance only

469
00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:16,959
Speaker 4: one starts as say, maybe gets you know, half instead

470
00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:19,639
Speaker 4: of a full game kind of thing. We don't know

471
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:21,320
Speaker 4: what the commentary looks like for him, but he did

472
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:25,719
Speaker 4: only play you know, ten minutes and for Pallace literally

473
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:27,600
Speaker 4: had one big chance and then a penalty. So it

474
00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:30,720
Speaker 4: was not a good attacking showing against a team that

475
00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:33,320
Speaker 4: likes to have possession and control games. It's not that

476
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:35,600
Speaker 4: different from this. So under two and a half for

477
00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:37,960
Speaker 4: me plus money is good. I like minus one oh five.

478
00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:41,199
Speaker 4: I would not play anything above minus one ten, but

479
00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:42,920
Speaker 4: I do like the under two and a half. I

480
00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:45,800
Speaker 4: think it's a little bit high on this one crazy,

481
00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:47,720
Speaker 4: but Brighton unders I mean we've talked about this.

482
00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:51,679
Speaker 1: They Yeah, I just seems like whatever, like the first

483
00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:53,840
Speaker 1: goal happens, that's when things kind of get off the reels.

484
00:23:53,840 --> 00:23:56,160
Speaker 2: So it obviously it depends on when that first goal happens.

485
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:58,199
Speaker 1: You know. Obviously today it gets Arsenal and came in

486
00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:01,160
Speaker 1: the second half and they just couldn't play. Like you said,

487
00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:03,320
Speaker 1: they couldn't play through Arsenal's pressure with a much much

488
00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:08,000
Speaker 1: different type of environment. Here's what's interesting for me for

489
00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:11,840
Speaker 1: the Palace is they're gonna after this match, they're going

490
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:15,119
Speaker 1: to travel to play Chelsea on the twenty seventh, and

491
00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:18,359
Speaker 1: they're getting the goal on the road. Is gonna be fascinating.

492
00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:20,240
Speaker 1: I might be on Palace in that match if I

493
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 1: would love to see, because we haven't seen it yet.

494
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:25,400
Speaker 1: With as A in Aalise playing together, I think that's

495
00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:27,480
Speaker 1: going to Obviously it was electric last year so towards

496
00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:29,080
Speaker 1: the second half of the season, but I think this

497
00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:30,760
Speaker 1: season it's going to be even better.

498
00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:33,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, I generally agree. They kept hold of both of

499
00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:39,080
Speaker 4: them this summer. That that concludes it for EPL. We're

500
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:40,960
Speaker 4: gonna be back on Wednesday night to do our full

501
00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:43,760
Speaker 4: weekend preview. We're gonna touch on Boxing Day, just because

502
00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:46,440
Speaker 4: it's going to be tricky this year because Boxing Day

503
00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:49,840
Speaker 4: falls not only obviously the day after Christmas, but because

504
00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 4: of the way the weekend slate works with games on

505
00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:53,920
Speaker 4: the twenty second, the twenty third, there's no real way

506
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:57,719
Speaker 4: for us to feasibly record a full Boxing Day preview

507
00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:00,359
Speaker 4: with the holiday coming up. Got Christmas, even Christian and

508
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 4: Festivus for the rest of us. So we're going to

509
00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:06,399
Speaker 4: do a full EPL preview this weekend, of course, but

510
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:09,879
Speaker 4: let's take some time and jump into some other leagues here,

511
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:12,720
Speaker 4: because we do have midweek footy in the Bundesliga, La

512
00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:15,600
Speaker 4: Liga and Liga No Siria. They'll be back this weekend.

513
00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:17,879
Speaker 4: All three leagues are heading into their kind of winter

514
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:20,240
Speaker 4: break here, so this is like the last we're going

515
00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:23,000
Speaker 4: to see of these squads. And to be honest, I

516
00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 4: was texting you right before we went on air. It's

517
00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:29,600
Speaker 4: a really meek, kind of unexciting slate. There's not one

518
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:33,119
Speaker 4: game in any of the three leagues that I'm like

519
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:35,879
Speaker 4: dying to tune into, but that doesn't even want to

520
00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:40,439
Speaker 4: have bets. So let's start in Germany. Germany, you know,

521
00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:42,240
Speaker 4: if you haven't been paying attention. If you just like

522
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 4: woke up under a rock. Byron is actually not in

523
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:49,080
Speaker 4: first it's Labrakuzen. Byron has by far the best underlying numbers.

524
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:53,280
Speaker 4: They are over plus two expect a goal difference per ninety,

525
00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:55,720
Speaker 4: which is amazing and something that we're going to have

526
00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:57,840
Speaker 4: to come to discussion with when we get the Byron

527
00:25:57,880 --> 00:25:59,679
Speaker 4: Champions League draw and we look at, like what's their

528
00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:02,480
Speaker 4: path through this, because we're gonna discuss Champions League and

529
00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:04,359
Speaker 4: like how good is Byron is a really interesting question

530
00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:07,959
Speaker 4: because they are destroying the Bundesliga. They completely swatted aside

531
00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 4: Stutegart today three to Nino uncompetitive. Byron goes on the

532
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:17,040
Speaker 4: road to Wolfsburg. Now, Wolfsburg's been like the oultimate they

533
00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:18,800
Speaker 4: you know, we've talked in the prem a lot this year.

534
00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:21,639
Speaker 4: Homefield advantage is op atich it's small samples, but like

535
00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 4: home field teams are winning more than they have in

536
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:28,040
Speaker 4: the last few years. You know, obviously bottomed out around

537
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 4: COVID because there was no crowds, but home teams are

538
00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:32,320
Speaker 4: doing well and better this year. Well, if there was

539
00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:34,840
Speaker 4: a version of that in the Bundesliga, it would be

540
00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:40,800
Speaker 4: Wolfsburg who this year have been awful away from home

541
00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:44,480
Speaker 4: minus ten goal difference at home plus four four wins.

542
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:47,760
Speaker 4: They're a pretty sizable underdog and not enough for me

543
00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:52,280
Speaker 4: to get involved. Wolfsburg is just like a pretty mediocre

544
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 4: team that I don't really want to go against Byron

545
00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:56,080
Speaker 4: with I have to be more choosy with my spots.

546
00:26:57,040 --> 00:27:01,879
Speaker 4: Stutgarts in fourth, Erakuzsin first. Leipzig has climbed all the

547
00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:05,200
Speaker 4: way up to third. They have been on a recent

548
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:08,000
Speaker 4: winning run here. What do we think in terms of

549
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:10,400
Speaker 4: like the situation right now is they're obviously a top

550
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:13,879
Speaker 4: four Do you think that anybody like is Dortmund fixable?

551
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:17,000
Speaker 4: Where do we stand on the top four race? Because

552
00:27:17,040 --> 00:27:21,520
Speaker 4: the odds markets seem to think that Dortmund's not dead,

553
00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:22,840
Speaker 4: but like I think they are.

554
00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:24,200
Speaker 2: Yeah.

555
00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:27,560
Speaker 1: Maybe we've talked about them so many times, the transition

556
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:32,720
Speaker 1: defense and less defenses and if they don't get a

557
00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:35,800
Speaker 1: great ball stopping midfield or in January, I don't really

558
00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:38,200
Speaker 1: see a sneer the defense is going to get fixed

559
00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:42,159
Speaker 1: or improved, and even their build up is kind of

560
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:45,679
Speaker 1: disjoining it as well. Like they've the reason they've been

561
00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:48,679
Speaker 1: good in the Champions League is because they've had the

562
00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 1: ability to play very direct against a lot of these teams,

563
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:52,639
Speaker 1: which is kind of where they're at their best. But

564
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:55,959
Speaker 1: when teams just kind of hand them the ball and say, hey, Dortmann,

565
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:57,080
Speaker 1: try to go break us down.

566
00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:58,840
Speaker 2: They've really struggled to do that.

567
00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:01,560
Speaker 1: And obviously, like we mentioned, they've been very open in

568
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:03,760
Speaker 1: transition defense. I mean they're allowing close to one point

569
00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:06,320
Speaker 1: eight XGP or ninety in the Bundesliga.

570
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:11,639
Speaker 2: Like that's that's very very concerning. But yeah, I mean

571
00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:11,919
Speaker 2: there is.

572
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:16,440
Speaker 1: I mean, even if you just took an expected old differential, Stutgart, Leipzig,

573
00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:21,919
Speaker 1: Munich and Leverkusen are all above plus thirteen. Dorman's the

574
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:25,160
Speaker 1: only other team in the Bundesliga with a positive expecting

575
00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:29,399
Speaker 1: gold differential. It is incredibly top heavy Germany, so I

576
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:33,840
Speaker 1: think the top four is pretty set in stone. Again,

577
00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:36,040
Speaker 1: unless Doormann goes out and spends a bunch of money

578
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:38,760
Speaker 1: and gets like a really really good midfielder, that kind

579
00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:42,000
Speaker 1: of changes, like like a Casamiro the Manchester United type

580
00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:45,680
Speaker 1: of change. I don't really see a scenario how they're

581
00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:47,400
Speaker 1: going to challenge for this one with it. But again

582
00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:50,360
Speaker 1: then you have to talk about Stuttgart and they're probably

583
00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 1: gonna lose Guirasi in the January transfer Windo because he

584
00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:56,360
Speaker 1: only has about an eighteen million dollars level A release.

585
00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 2: Clause and he wants to leave.

586
00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:02,080
Speaker 1: He didn't resound contracts, so you also have that as

587
00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 1: a scenario that could potentially be kind of interesting. But

588
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:06,520
Speaker 1: they also have a couple other actually pretty good strikers

589
00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:08,440
Speaker 1: that I don't think the drop off is gonna be

590
00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:10,800
Speaker 1: that significant comparatively.

591
00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:12,080
Speaker 2: So it's a very interesting top four race.

592
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 1: I'm I'm more interested how long Leverkusen could keep this

593
00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:19,160
Speaker 1: up because they're out forming their XTG by about fourteen

594
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:23,479
Speaker 1: goals now. They obviously had a very dominant win over

595
00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:27,080
Speaker 1: the weekend again and they haven't lost. They're due to

596
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:30,320
Speaker 1: go on some type of bad run here at some point,

597
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:32,680
Speaker 1: right I guess, I mean how much.

598
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:35,120
Speaker 4: At the halfway point of the season, though, I don't

599
00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 4: you know. So the German season at thirty four games

600
00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:39,960
Speaker 4: right now, Byron is minus three hundred and a beout

601
00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:42,680
Speaker 4: three six five to win the Bundesliga. Leverkusen's plus two

602
00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:50,320
Speaker 4: twenty five Byron still goes to Leverkusen. Leverkusen still goes

603
00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:53,440
Speaker 4: to Dortmund. They still go to Leipzig, So you know,

604
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:56,040
Speaker 4: in terms of like how the schedule breaks, yeah, you know,

605
00:29:56,160 --> 00:30:00,440
Speaker 4: like it's pretty even remaining rest of season. Leverkusen taking

606
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:02,680
Speaker 4: care of business though, like you said, like they've banked

607
00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 4: a four point lead, that's really a one point lead

608
00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 4: because ah Byron has a game in hand at home

609
00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:15,400
Speaker 4: against Unyon, which they win eighty percent of the time.

610
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:20,120
Speaker 4: So I think that maybe more so, I think that

611
00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:24,000
Speaker 4: this is a decent time to buy Byron actually just

612
00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:26,320
Speaker 4: because I don't really believe in leverkus and keeping this up.

613
00:30:26,520 --> 00:30:28,160
Speaker 4: I think that there is, Yeah.

614
00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:29,160
Speaker 2: It's there.

615
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:32,280
Speaker 1: Their way over forming, like we've seen this through up time.

616
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:35,760
Speaker 1: Eventually we'll come back to on Earth.

617
00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:36,880
Speaker 2: It's a couple.

618
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:41,040
Speaker 4: Patches here when when you look up Leverkusen kind of

619
00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:44,240
Speaker 4: like as a satistical profile, there's nothing like glaring that

620
00:30:44,320 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 4: sticks out as like this is a problem. They're not

621
00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 4: gonna be able to overcome this. Their defense has been

622
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:52,280
Speaker 4: pretty good. They've been pretty good on set pieces, Like

623
00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:57,200
Speaker 4: there's no alarming like holy shit weakness, but you could

624
00:30:57,240 --> 00:31:02,120
Speaker 4: poke holes in some of their shot distance numbers. Teams

625
00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:06,520
Speaker 4: who finish and have consistently great attacks generally get high

626
00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:09,280
Speaker 4: quality shots and if you look at the highest quality

627
00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:13,960
Speaker 4: shots in Journey this year, average shot distance Leverkusen is

628
00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:19,480
Speaker 4: seventeen point four yards, which is below average, and that's

629
00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:22,600
Speaker 4: concerning for their attack. Their shot quality is not great

630
00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:25,880
Speaker 4: from an average x G per shot. They're at point one,

631
00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 4: which is right around the average. So if you wanted

632
00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:31,920
Speaker 4: to say, hey, you know they're not gonna be able

633
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:35,360
Speaker 4: to continue this, I would generally agree. And defensively it's

634
00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:39,920
Speaker 4: the same thing. It's average shot distance allowed, very average

635
00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:43,800
Speaker 4: shot quality from an XG per shot perspective. So I think,

636
00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:47,760
Speaker 4: like those numbers lead me to believe this probably doesn't

637
00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:53,160
Speaker 4: last forever. Shots per ninety allowed they are second, so

638
00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:56,880
Speaker 4: they're making up for it with like shot volume. But yeah,

639
00:31:56,920 --> 00:31:59,000
Speaker 4: I think buying three hundred manest three hundreds a little cheap.

640
00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:04,040
Speaker 4: But I'm not running to the window to bet that necessarily.

641
00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:06,040
Speaker 4: Stutgard eighty to one, Dormant one hund and one Lepe

642
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:10,720
Speaker 4: say twenty eight to one. No, thanks, uh so, best bet,

643
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:13,040
Speaker 4: let's just do it here. We've kind of taken the

644
00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:16,280
Speaker 4: lay of the land in Germany. I still think the

645
00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:18,320
Speaker 4: market's catching up to how good Stutgart is. Even though

646
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:21,120
Speaker 4: they got smoked today and they showed that when they

647
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:24,080
Speaker 4: smoked light Leverrakuz in that one one draw on xt G.

648
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:27,880
Speaker 4: That's bet for this slate BJ.

649
00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:31,520
Speaker 1: I will go Freiberg drown no bet minus one twelve

650
00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:37,600
Speaker 1: against Heidenheim. Freiberg is a team very similar.

651
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:38,200
Speaker 2: To that of Brentford.

652
00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:42,000
Speaker 1: They play very single star a very direct to take

653
00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:45,520
Speaker 1: advantage of set pieces as much as they can, and

654
00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:47,040
Speaker 1: they're going to play a very direct.

655
00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:47,760
Speaker 2: Team here in Hide and Him.

656
00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:51,840
Speaker 1: But the biggest difference here is that Freiberg there has

657
00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:54,160
Speaker 1: been scenarios this season where they've had to hold more

658
00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:56,480
Speaker 1: possession and that they people teams have handed them to

659
00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:59,920
Speaker 1: the ball. In every single match, outside of a five

660
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:02,680
Speaker 1: no defeat to Stuttgart which obviously got out of the

661
00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:04,200
Speaker 1: hand and they held more possion towards the end of

662
00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:06,800
Speaker 1: the match, they have won the XG battle every single

663
00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:09,080
Speaker 1: time they've held over fifty percent poteshion and I expect

664
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:10,840
Speaker 1: them to in this match as well. They had a

665
00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:13,800
Speaker 1: great showing against Colonne over the weekend on Sunday and

666
00:33:13,800 --> 00:33:15,240
Speaker 1: they'll be taking on a Heidenheim team.

667
00:33:15,240 --> 00:33:17,480
Speaker 2: It's one of the worst defensive teams in Germany.

668
00:33:17,520 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 1: Again, plays very very direct, not good in transition defense,

669
00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:23,560
Speaker 1: so should be a very back and forth type match.

670
00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:26,280
Speaker 2: But Freiberg is the much better transition team.

671
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:31,120
Speaker 1: Projected them closer to plus one thirty nine, drawing no

672
00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:34,280
Speaker 1: betline projected closer to minus one twenty five. So anything

673
00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:36,160
Speaker 1: minus one fifteen on the drawn on bet line for

674
00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:38,960
Speaker 1: Freiberg or better I think is a decent val.

675
00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:41,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna go with mines plus one. Another Dortmund

676
00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:44,480
Speaker 4: fade for me. I know they're coming home. I know

677
00:33:44,600 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 4: that they just had a pretty poor showing at the

678
00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 4: weekend at Osburg, and you know, in theory this would

679
00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:51,760
Speaker 4: be a good bye low. I just really think that

680
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:54,360
Speaker 4: the market is pricing this this team like there are

681
00:33:54,360 --> 00:33:57,200
Speaker 4: anything more than they are. I mean, they conceded too

682
00:33:57,240 --> 00:34:00,320
Speaker 4: expected goals to Osburg, they conceded three to PSG, two

683
00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:02,280
Speaker 4: point eight to Leipzig. Granted they were not a man.

684
00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:08,920
Speaker 4: It's not just the defense either. Like even the like

685
00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:15,200
Speaker 4: quote unquote great attacking numbers, they're still way behind Leverkusen, Leipzig,

686
00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:18,359
Speaker 4: stut Garden Fire Like, they're not even a top four

687
00:34:18,400 --> 00:34:21,759
Speaker 4: attacking team by any metric, and if you look at

688
00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:25,040
Speaker 4: like their shot numbers, it's the same thing. It's like,

689
00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:27,080
Speaker 4: you know, they're middle of the pack in a lot

690
00:34:27,120 --> 00:34:31,040
Speaker 4: of these numbers from first of all XG per shot

691
00:34:31,080 --> 00:34:34,640
Speaker 4: allowed they are near the bottom of the league. Average

692
00:34:34,640 --> 00:34:37,520
Speaker 4: shot distance allowed, they are near the bottom of the league.

693
00:34:38,040 --> 00:34:41,200
Speaker 4: So they're conceding a ton of high quality shots and

694
00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:45,040
Speaker 4: they're not getting as many themselves. So I think that

695
00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:48,200
Speaker 4: you know, this team, Terzick is on his last legs.

696
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:51,360
Speaker 4: I think he's probably fired if they don't win this

697
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:53,520
Speaker 4: match at least moving off the roll, and they're going

698
00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:55,560
Speaker 4: to hire somebody else to be the manager. I think

699
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:57,600
Speaker 4: this is it for him because if they don't win

700
00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:00,239
Speaker 4: against Minds at home, like it signals the end. Me

701
00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:04,399
Speaker 4: and this Mine's team has been like the bad luck

702
00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:08,680
Speaker 4: Bears of the Bundesliga minus fifteen goal difference. Expected goal

703
00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:12,360
Speaker 4: difference is right around average, so we have two average

704
00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:14,719
Speaker 4: Bundesliga teams. They have very different ways of going about it.

705
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:18,120
Speaker 4: Mine sets very deep, they break into transition. They have

706
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:20,880
Speaker 4: one of the worst attacks this year by actually created.

707
00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:23,640
Speaker 4: They're in the bottom three, but their defense is still elite.

708
00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:27,280
Speaker 4: The post fence in days of having a really good defense,

709
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:29,800
Speaker 4: it doesn't concede big chances is still there. They've just

710
00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:32,600
Speaker 4: run really bad, and it's not even just shots stopping.

711
00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:36,040
Speaker 4: They've had some really bad luck with teams finishing way

712
00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:38,520
Speaker 4: above their numbers against them. Their goalkeeper has been right

713
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:42,800
Speaker 4: around league average. So ultimately minds plus one this should

714
00:35:42,800 --> 00:35:43,560
Speaker 4: be three quarters.

715
00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:44,120
Speaker 2: It is one.

716
00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:46,600
Speaker 4: So I'm going to take the goal on minds against

717
00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:50,720
Speaker 4: Dortmund and continue to bet on them being frauds once again.

718
00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:55,000
Speaker 4: So that's the Bundesliga actually really interesting relegation race, but

719
00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:57,439
Speaker 4: we don't have time to get into it today. Let's

720
00:35:57,440 --> 00:36:01,479
Speaker 4: switch gears to La Liga, which is a fascinating league

721
00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:03,520
Speaker 4: right now. I seem to have a lot of off

722
00:36:03,520 --> 00:36:05,640
Speaker 4: market opinions on these teams, and I've been betting way

723
00:36:05,680 --> 00:36:09,759
Speaker 4: more Spain than I'm ever comfortable doing. It's a terrible

724
00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:11,480
Speaker 4: league to bet. I've always said that, but I have

725
00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:14,359
Speaker 4: been betting it a lot, including Monday with Elevas who

726
00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:20,160
Speaker 4: we will see how they do. Bjuh, you have probably

727
00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:21,400
Speaker 4: more Gerna takes than I do.

728
00:36:22,080 --> 00:36:22,720
Speaker 2: I do one.

729
00:36:23,840 --> 00:36:26,280
Speaker 4: You have an anti Gerona disease. I have an anti

730
00:36:26,280 --> 00:36:29,120
Speaker 4: Real Madrid disease. Where where do we? Where do we

731
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:31,040
Speaker 4: come down on this team? We're recording this before they

732
00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:37,440
Speaker 4: play Monday. They are they're technically a point behind Real Madrid.

733
00:36:37,480 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 4: But if they win at home as my two hundred favorite,

734
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:42,440
Speaker 4: which I don't think they will, may sound dumb by

735
00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:44,759
Speaker 4: the time you listen to this. They are top of

736
00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:47,480
Speaker 4: the table. So where do we stand on them? And

737
00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:49,319
Speaker 4: what's your best bet for this midweek's late?

738
00:36:50,120 --> 00:36:53,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, So Thursday, Real Bettis is at home against Roona

739
00:36:53,840 --> 00:36:56,440
Speaker 1: and Gerona is a road favorite at Real Bettas, which

740
00:36:56,480 --> 00:36:59,160
Speaker 1: I think is wrong. I think that Beta should be

741
00:36:59,200 --> 00:37:04,720
Speaker 1: closer to plus one ten plus one twenty on that range. Obviously, again,

742
00:37:04,920 --> 00:37:07,799
Speaker 1: Jroona hasn't played on Monday, so week can't see how they've.

743
00:37:07,719 --> 00:37:09,839
Speaker 2: Did against Alabas. Hopefully Alias comes through.

744
00:37:10,000 --> 00:37:13,720
Speaker 1: But what has happened a lot of times with Girona

745
00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:16,880
Speaker 1: is not only when they have you know, there's the

746
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:19,520
Speaker 1: conversation of when they have to step in up in competition.

747
00:37:19,640 --> 00:37:23,120
Speaker 1: They have faltered. Obviously, they got beat pretty badly by

748
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:28,560
Speaker 1: Real Madrid. They were worse off against that athletic Bilbao.

749
00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:29,760
Speaker 2: If bibow is a better.

750
00:37:29,560 --> 00:37:31,480
Speaker 1: Team in that match, and then I know they beat

751
00:37:31,480 --> 00:37:36,799
Speaker 1: Barcelona for two on the road, but Barcelona created four

752
00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:40,120
Speaker 1: expected goals, had five big scoring chances sixty touches in

753
00:37:40,160 --> 00:37:44,600
Speaker 1: Jerona's penalty box, like they are a really really bad

754
00:37:44,640 --> 00:37:46,840
Speaker 1: defensive team when they have to face at least somewhat

755
00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:51,839
Speaker 1: of a defense, decent offense, and with how much they

756
00:37:51,960 --> 00:37:54,200
Speaker 1: like to overload the last line of defense against teams

757
00:37:54,200 --> 00:37:56,400
Speaker 1: that want to play a little more defensive, which Bettest

758
00:37:56,480 --> 00:37:58,560
Speaker 1: this year is. You know, Bettest in years past has

759
00:37:58,719 --> 00:38:00,279
Speaker 1: over form their next year. They want to be more

760
00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:02,920
Speaker 1: possession based, but this year they're actually playing way more

761
00:38:02,960 --> 00:38:05,400
Speaker 1: direct and way more defensive, and it's actually paid off

762
00:38:05,440 --> 00:38:08,239
Speaker 1: pretty nicely for them. They've had a great performance today

763
00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:11,320
Speaker 1: against Riale Sociad zero zero draw where the XG was

764
00:38:11,360 --> 00:38:15,239
Speaker 1: basically even. And the biggest thing with Bettis is they

765
00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:19,359
Speaker 1: are number one both offensively and defensively in the final

766
00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:23,440
Speaker 1: third box entry conversion, so that means their transition attacks

767
00:38:23,440 --> 00:38:25,120
Speaker 1: have been really good at getting the ball in the

768
00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:27,680
Speaker 1: penalty box and their defensive block has been really really

769
00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:29,719
Speaker 1: good at preventing teams from getting in there. That's a

770
00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:32,319
Speaker 1: big big thing in this match if Droon is going

771
00:38:32,320 --> 00:38:34,000
Speaker 1: to try to overload that last line of defense.

772
00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:36,440
Speaker 2: Eastco is having an incredible season for Bettis.

773
00:38:36,719 --> 00:38:39,839
Speaker 1: He's putting up just like crazy numbers, even better than

774
00:38:39,840 --> 00:38:43,360
Speaker 1: he was with Real Madrid, So you know, I bet.

775
00:38:43,239 --> 00:38:44,520
Speaker 2: It's closer to even money here.

776
00:38:45,280 --> 00:38:47,759
Speaker 1: Well, again, we'll see what happens with Drona against Salla

777
00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:50,719
Speaker 1: based on Monday. They are at home, but bettis having

778
00:38:50,719 --> 00:38:52,880
Speaker 1: an extra day rest being at home.

779
00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:55,920
Speaker 2: I really don't think Darones should be a real favorite,

780
00:38:55,920 --> 00:38:57,960
Speaker 2: so I'll just keep vaiting this team.

781
00:38:58,040 --> 00:39:04,160
Speaker 1: Oh gosh, Darna has you know, they'll have a little

782
00:39:04,160 --> 00:39:06,000
Speaker 1: bit of a break here, but in the new year

783
00:39:06,040 --> 00:39:09,720
Speaker 1: they're gonna play at Lettyco. I'm January third, so that'll

784
00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:12,360
Speaker 1: be fun. So there'd be plenty of opportunities to continue

785
00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:14,200
Speaker 1: to fait the Shirona team as we go forward. But

786
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:17,000
Speaker 1: again I think the market is like, oh my gosh,

787
00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:18,520
Speaker 1: this team's really good now because they're at the top

788
00:39:18,560 --> 00:39:20,399
Speaker 1: of the table and they won all these matches, but again,

789
00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:23,839
Speaker 1: basically all of them have come against the bottom half

790
00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:26,440
Speaker 1: of the table. The few matches they have play against

791
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:28,440
Speaker 1: the top half the table, they have struggled. So this

792
00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:30,239
Speaker 1: is again another top half of the table team better

793
00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:33,759
Speaker 1: than sixth place, positive expected old differential, a decent team.

794
00:39:33,920 --> 00:39:37,719
Speaker 2: So Bettie Darno bet might just want to five at home.

795
00:39:38,280 --> 00:39:41,640
Speaker 4: So we talked about Alavas on the Wednesday show and

796
00:39:42,280 --> 00:39:47,680
Speaker 4: they are playing Real Madrid, So I'm not gonna make

797
00:39:47,719 --> 00:39:49,200
Speaker 4: it my best bet because I do want to see

798
00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:52,240
Speaker 4: them play this match before I go hammer them against

799
00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:59,160
Speaker 4: Real Madrid plus one at home. But this Samuel Mordian

800
00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:05,360
Speaker 4: excuse my pronunciation, is putting up some like really impressive

801
00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:09,719
Speaker 4: numbers six point two expected goals, four goals already, zero

802
00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:13,319
Speaker 4: point seven to seven XG per ninety. He's nineteen years

803
00:40:13,320 --> 00:40:18,640
Speaker 4: old and he's an extremely impressive dribbler, slash, you know,

804
00:40:18,800 --> 00:40:21,880
Speaker 4: take on person right like, so I'm impressed with his

805
00:40:21,920 --> 00:40:25,080
Speaker 4: ability to go past people. He's kind of been the

806
00:40:25,160 --> 00:40:29,200
Speaker 4: one man show and he's putting up really impressive numbers.

807
00:40:29,200 --> 00:40:31,319
Speaker 4: They lost to Barsa, but four shots against them. They

808
00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 4: lost the last Promise but three shots against them, and

809
00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:39,000
Speaker 4: I think it's real. So I'm kind of buying in

810
00:40:39,600 --> 00:40:41,760
Speaker 4: to them being undervalued as an attack as a result

811
00:40:41,800 --> 00:40:43,120
Speaker 4: of him. And if you just look at like their

812
00:40:43,200 --> 00:40:47,240
Speaker 4: general profile, they're right around league average as an attack.

813
00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:49,440
Speaker 4: And this is an Elevates team that certainly has not

814
00:40:50,200 --> 00:40:52,840
Speaker 4: impressed with their ability to attack in the past, so

815
00:40:53,800 --> 00:40:55,239
Speaker 4: they may have found a little diamond in the rough

816
00:40:55,280 --> 00:40:59,960
Speaker 4: here and now Real Madrid, who looked pretty poor defensive

817
00:41:00,239 --> 00:41:03,879
Speaker 4: They thrashed via Real who stakes today, but they looked

818
00:41:03,880 --> 00:41:05,399
Speaker 4: pretty poor defensively in that match.

819
00:41:05,800 --> 00:41:06,440
Speaker 2: Now they lose.

820
00:41:07,840 --> 00:41:10,680
Speaker 4: Now they lose David Alaba for the season, torn acl

821
00:41:11,760 --> 00:41:14,279
Speaker 4: pretty big loss to a defense that does not have

822
00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:17,400
Speaker 4: a ton of depth to begin with. And so I'm

823
00:41:17,760 --> 00:41:20,759
Speaker 4: I'm a believer in Alvas to threaten Real Madrid here

824
00:41:21,480 --> 00:41:24,040
Speaker 4: in this match. I think they can be competitive. Do

825
00:41:24,120 --> 00:41:27,280
Speaker 4: I think they'll win, No, because nobody beats Real Madrid,

826
00:41:27,960 --> 00:41:32,480
Speaker 4: but I certainly don't think they'll be out of it otherwise.

827
00:41:32,560 --> 00:41:34,680
Speaker 4: You know, Kadiz was chanting to me, they haven't won

828
00:41:34,760 --> 00:41:37,800
Speaker 4: a match in the league in a long time, but

829
00:41:38,600 --> 00:41:40,719
Speaker 4: I think the markets really bottomed out on them, and

830
00:41:40,760 --> 00:41:42,400
Speaker 4: I'm not sure I agree. I think they've actually been

831
00:41:42,440 --> 00:41:44,319
Speaker 4: playing a little bit better of late. If you look

832
00:41:44,320 --> 00:41:48,120
Speaker 4: at some of their underlying numbers. Out played OSAs Sooner

833
00:41:48,200 --> 00:41:50,200
Speaker 4: for the entirety of that match and that draw they had,

834
00:41:50,960 --> 00:41:54,000
Speaker 4: they were pretty competitive. Now they get associate odd team

835
00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:56,000
Speaker 4: at home, which has been a little interesting this year,

836
00:41:56,040 --> 00:41:57,759
Speaker 4: and that their numbers in the league have gone down.

837
00:41:58,120 --> 00:42:02,080
Speaker 4: Some of it is they've been more heavy rotating, but

838
00:42:02,400 --> 00:42:05,759
Speaker 4: catching a half goal at home they could sneak one

839
00:42:05,880 --> 00:42:09,040
Speaker 4: by Associadad and like a tricky spot for for La Real.

840
00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:12,000
Speaker 4: So he had the Tuesday card or the Thursday card

841
00:42:12,040 --> 00:42:15,239
Speaker 4: rather certainly interesting for us with Kadiz that is Alavase,

842
00:42:15,840 --> 00:42:18,800
Speaker 4: not a ton else for me in La Liga. Like

843
00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:21,960
Speaker 4: I think the Tuesday card is gross. Vigo finally won

844
00:42:22,040 --> 00:42:24,799
Speaker 4: a match. They're at Via Real and they're a dog.

845
00:42:26,239 --> 00:42:27,600
Speaker 4: I just kind of want I just kind of want

846
00:42:27,640 --> 00:42:30,560
Speaker 4: to blind bet them because I think Virial stinks. But

847
00:42:30,640 --> 00:42:32,239
Speaker 4: I think the market's like kind of onto the fact

848
00:42:32,239 --> 00:42:34,359
Speaker 4: that Virial stinks. They were catching to at Madrid today

849
00:42:34,360 --> 00:42:37,880
Speaker 4: for a reason. But if you're just a part of

850
00:42:37,920 --> 00:42:41,319
Speaker 4: the blind Virial or Vigo club, I've seen worse bets.

851
00:42:42,840 --> 00:42:47,120
Speaker 4: Defense is so bad that even Vigo, who can't score

852
00:42:47,120 --> 00:42:51,680
Speaker 4: on anybody, should probably score on them. But that's neither

853
00:42:51,719 --> 00:42:55,000
Speaker 4: here nor there anything else on the lega before we move.

854
00:42:54,920 --> 00:42:59,640
Speaker 1: On, Uh, Valencia's plus a half at a pretty juicy

855
00:42:59,719 --> 00:43:03,279
Speaker 1: number against Vacano, which I think should be about to

856
00:43:03,320 --> 00:43:03,680
Speaker 1: pick them.

857
00:43:03,920 --> 00:43:05,959
Speaker 2: Valencia one of the better defensive teams in the league.

858
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:08,000
Speaker 1: Obviously, they just got trucked by Barcelona, but every single

859
00:43:08,040 --> 00:43:11,440
Speaker 1: time they stepped down in class they've been pretty good.

860
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:14,600
Speaker 1: And Vacano even though we bet them on Friday, they've

861
00:43:15,239 --> 00:43:17,680
Speaker 1: been pretty poor offensively all season long. So that's the

862
00:43:17,760 --> 00:43:19,080
Speaker 1: only place I would look at Spain.

863
00:43:19,520 --> 00:43:22,960
Speaker 4: Well, they lost the Riola, of course, they're no good anymore. Anyway,

864
00:43:25,880 --> 00:43:29,800
Speaker 4: legan Niece finally conceded goals for the first time all season.

865
00:43:30,280 --> 00:43:31,279
Speaker 2: They should have stuck now.

866
00:43:32,000 --> 00:43:37,840
Speaker 4: They had this unbelievable run where nobody scored any goals

867
00:43:37,840 --> 00:43:39,959
Speaker 4: on them for pretty much the entirety of the season.

868
00:43:40,000 --> 00:43:41,839
Speaker 4: I just want to highlight this before we get into Ligan.

869
00:43:42,080 --> 00:43:43,879
Speaker 4: They gave up two goals in their first two games

870
00:43:43,920 --> 00:43:47,200
Speaker 4: to Lela and Laurent. They gave up two to PSG

871
00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:53,200
Speaker 4: in their fifth match of the season. They played Leon Strasbourg, Monaco, Brest, Metz, Marseille,

872
00:43:53,320 --> 00:43:57,640
Speaker 4: Claremont Foot wren Montpellier to lose. They didn't concede a

873
00:43:57,719 --> 00:44:01,359
Speaker 4: single goal in any of the those matches. I don't

874
00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:04,359
Speaker 4: care if it's a farmers league. You keep ten clean

875
00:44:04,440 --> 00:44:09,640
Speaker 4: sheets and eleven matches, that is amazing. Uh And the

876
00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:14,600
Speaker 4: market was starting to put totals at two and then

877
00:44:14,600 --> 00:44:15,840
Speaker 4: they had a one nil win then they had a

878
00:44:15,880 --> 00:44:18,080
Speaker 4: one to no loss, and then finally back to back

879
00:44:18,200 --> 00:44:21,520
Speaker 4: overs they played a two to one home win against

880
00:44:21,560 --> 00:44:26,640
Speaker 4: Rems and then lost pretty badly to have down three

881
00:44:26,760 --> 00:44:29,760
Speaker 4: till scored late. We're never really in the match, conceded

882
00:44:29,800 --> 00:44:32,080
Speaker 4: two point one XG. The two point one XG is

883
00:44:32,160 --> 00:44:35,000
Speaker 4: the most they've conceded all year. They've now conceded over

884
00:44:35,080 --> 00:44:38,640
Speaker 4: one expected goal and four straight matches. They are, on paper,

885
00:44:38,920 --> 00:44:42,880
Speaker 4: the best threat to challenge PSG for the title. I

886
00:44:43,000 --> 00:44:44,440
Speaker 4: don't really think they are.

887
00:44:44,960 --> 00:44:47,279
Speaker 2: There's no challenge the PSG this season.

888
00:44:47,400 --> 00:44:51,319
Speaker 4: Unfortunately, you don't think I reickets hanging out.

889
00:44:52,239 --> 00:44:55,919
Speaker 1: They're nine points back and I don't. I mean, BAPA

890
00:44:56,040 --> 00:44:58,120
Speaker 1: is going to stay the whole season. And like we've

891
00:44:58,320 --> 00:45:00,799
Speaker 1: said how much we actually think this PSG.

892
00:45:00,600 --> 00:45:01,120
Speaker 2: Team is good.

893
00:45:01,719 --> 00:45:04,719
Speaker 1: They're just trucking like any all of the bottom half

894
00:45:04,719 --> 00:45:06,439
Speaker 1: of the table. Like I know, Lil got a last

895
00:45:06,520 --> 00:45:09,520
Speaker 1: gasp to maybe keep the tickets alive.

896
00:45:09,280 --> 00:45:10,200
Speaker 2: For like one more week.

897
00:45:10,280 --> 00:45:13,719
Speaker 1: But I mean, even if just the underlying data is

898
00:45:13,760 --> 00:45:15,840
Speaker 1: like PSG is so much for further ahead of everybody

899
00:45:15,880 --> 00:45:18,680
Speaker 1: else right now that it's even Marseille is like at

900
00:45:18,680 --> 00:45:21,080
Speaker 1: a plus eleven expected all differential like they're the closest

901
00:45:21,120 --> 00:45:23,759
Speaker 1: one to PSG and they're in seventh place, so I

902
00:45:23,800 --> 00:45:25,200
Speaker 1: think it kind of tells you how the league is.

903
00:45:25,320 --> 00:45:28,799
Speaker 2: It's going right now. Not but a very fun league

904
00:45:28,840 --> 00:45:32,520
Speaker 2: to bet this season, but I will continue to.

905
00:45:32,560 --> 00:45:36,000
Speaker 4: Bet it the ultimate by low finally winning a couple

906
00:45:36,000 --> 00:45:39,000
Speaker 4: of matches in a row, I know, to get at home.

907
00:45:39,080 --> 00:45:40,920
Speaker 4: They closed minus one ten at home against to lose.

908
00:45:41,480 --> 00:45:45,600
Speaker 4: They then upset Monico on Friday and a spot that

909
00:45:45,680 --> 00:45:47,480
Speaker 4: I said was a great spot, and then never bet it.

910
00:45:48,120 --> 00:45:52,200
Speaker 4: We were talking about Leon of course, started the season

911
00:45:52,239 --> 00:45:54,239
Speaker 4: getting shouted at by their fans. They had one win

912
00:45:54,320 --> 00:45:56,680
Speaker 4: in their first fourteen. They've now won two in a row.

913
00:45:56,680 --> 00:45:59,279
Speaker 4: They're up to sixteenth in the table. Probably not going

914
00:45:59,360 --> 00:46:02,480
Speaker 4: to get relegated cause they're not that bad. But you

915
00:46:02,640 --> 00:46:04,680
Speaker 4: like them this weekend or this week I.

916
00:46:04,760 --> 00:46:10,440
Speaker 1: Do, you know? Obviously things went pretty terribly for them

917
00:46:10,480 --> 00:46:13,160
Speaker 1: to begin the season, right like, they had a lot

918
00:46:13,239 --> 00:46:16,840
Speaker 1: of bad performances. Blanc looked like he didn't want to

919
00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:19,440
Speaker 1: be there, even openly said like please fire me and

920
00:46:19,480 --> 00:46:20,080
Speaker 1: get me out of here.

921
00:46:21,160 --> 00:46:23,479
Speaker 2: He leaves, They get a new.

922
00:46:23,400 --> 00:46:27,680
Speaker 1: Manager, and suddenly the train started getting back on the

923
00:46:27,760 --> 00:46:30,640
Speaker 1: tracks and turning in the right direction. You know, if

924
00:46:30,680 --> 00:46:32,520
Speaker 1: you look at some of their recent performances, they actually

925
00:46:32,560 --> 00:46:36,600
Speaker 1: have played a pretty difficult schedule. They beat Ren one Nothing,

926
00:46:36,719 --> 00:46:39,040
Speaker 1: won the Xtre Battle, they lost to Nothing, De Lil

927
00:46:39,200 --> 00:46:42,279
Speaker 1: won the Xtre Battle, they lost two three to to

928
00:46:42,400 --> 00:46:45,120
Speaker 1: Launce again won the xt Battle, had a bad performance

929
00:46:45,160 --> 00:46:47,560
Speaker 1: against Marseille in a midweek match, and like you said,

930
00:46:47,880 --> 00:46:52,239
Speaker 1: back to beck wins against Toulouse and Monaco. So this

931
00:46:52,360 --> 00:46:55,000
Speaker 1: team is still very talented and it's still a very

932
00:46:55,040 --> 00:46:58,239
Speaker 1: good team. And really what was happening is that they

933
00:46:58,280 --> 00:47:00,600
Speaker 1: were just some really really poor finishing in front of that.

934
00:47:00,760 --> 00:47:03,200
Speaker 1: You know, overall for the season, they've only scored fourteen goals.

935
00:47:03,600 --> 00:47:06,399
Speaker 1: It's been about twenty expected because Lacazette's just not having

936
00:47:06,400 --> 00:47:07,360
Speaker 1: a great finishing season.

937
00:47:07,480 --> 00:47:09,840
Speaker 2: But he's gotten things back on track. He's finished a

938
00:47:09,880 --> 00:47:11,040
Speaker 2: couple in the last few matches.

939
00:47:11,160 --> 00:47:13,520
Speaker 1: So they actually have a good threat up front now

940
00:47:13,880 --> 00:47:16,480
Speaker 1: and they're playing a very average Nonce team that I

941
00:47:16,600 --> 00:47:19,560
Speaker 1: don't know, there's really nothing discernible about them.

942
00:47:19,600 --> 00:47:22,520
Speaker 2: They're just a very below average league on teams.

943
00:47:22,600 --> 00:47:25,600
Speaker 1: So if I'm getting you know, I have Leone at

944
00:47:25,640 --> 00:47:28,479
Speaker 1: minus one sixty eight here for a team that's trending

945
00:47:28,480 --> 00:47:32,919
Speaker 1: in the right direction, that is still very talented. I'm

946
00:47:32,920 --> 00:47:35,120
Speaker 1: going to continue to buy low on them as we

947
00:47:35,239 --> 00:47:37,120
Speaker 1: get further and further into the season. They do have

948
00:47:37,239 --> 00:47:40,440
Speaker 1: some some difficult matches coming up, but I think this

949
00:47:40,520 --> 00:47:42,239
Speaker 1: is a decent spot. There's still a minus one forty

950
00:47:42,280 --> 00:47:44,439
Speaker 1: five out there. I wouldn't go past minus one twenty

951
00:47:44,480 --> 00:47:46,440
Speaker 1: five here, but there is still one out there and

952
00:47:46,520 --> 00:47:48,800
Speaker 1: if you can still find it, I would grab it.

953
00:47:49,760 --> 00:47:51,839
Speaker 4: I mean, what would this price have been six months ago?

954
00:47:52,920 --> 00:47:55,920
Speaker 2: Goal and a half, Yeah, no, for sure, it definitely

955
00:47:55,920 --> 00:47:57,600
Speaker 2: would have been argument.

956
00:47:57,760 --> 00:48:01,560
Speaker 4: Expect the goal difference not was was a right barely

957
00:48:01,680 --> 00:48:04,400
Speaker 4: survived on the final day of the season from relegation

958
00:48:05,280 --> 00:48:05,839
Speaker 4: and lose.

959
00:48:06,040 --> 00:48:08,520
Speaker 1: The to Louse line is I think the one of

960
00:48:08,560 --> 00:48:11,319
Speaker 1: those like the ultimate Biolo situations. Again, like you said

961
00:48:11,400 --> 00:48:13,080
Speaker 1: last year, that would have been easily minus one or

962
00:48:13,120 --> 00:48:14,080
Speaker 1: minus one and a half.

963
00:48:15,200 --> 00:48:17,160
Speaker 2: And tou Louse has the worst expectable differential in the

964
00:48:17,239 --> 00:48:17,560
Speaker 2: gue guns.

965
00:48:17,680 --> 00:48:21,520
Speaker 1: So yeah, the good positive Yeah, a couple of good

966
00:48:21,520 --> 00:48:23,200
Speaker 1: positive results and now that yeah.

967
00:48:23,040 --> 00:48:26,319
Speaker 2: To lose is going to be into the knockout round

968
00:48:27,520 --> 00:48:28,399
Speaker 2: in the Europa League.

969
00:48:29,000 --> 00:48:29,320
Speaker 4: Somehow.

970
00:48:29,360 --> 00:48:31,000
Speaker 1: It would be a fun fase when we get there,

971
00:48:31,760 --> 00:48:34,759
Speaker 1: but yeah, no, it's just going to keep buying on

972
00:48:34,840 --> 00:48:36,800
Speaker 1: on this team, one of the biggest clubs in France.

973
00:48:37,200 --> 00:48:40,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, should be a good top four race. Not too

974
00:48:40,400 --> 00:48:43,759
Speaker 4: much of a believer in Long who's in fifth or

975
00:48:43,840 --> 00:48:46,319
Speaker 4: Brass who's in sixth. Marseille should make a run at

976
00:48:46,360 --> 00:48:48,960
Speaker 4: it though. So Monaco Leo Nice are the clear favorites

977
00:48:49,000 --> 00:48:52,000
Speaker 4: for the top four. But uh, they're going to get

978
00:48:52,080 --> 00:48:54,880
Speaker 4: that fourth Champions League place next year. I believe, so

979
00:48:55,640 --> 00:48:56,680
Speaker 4: that ninety.

980
00:48:56,640 --> 00:48:59,239
Speaker 2: Eight percent chance I saw the other day they're going

981
00:48:59,280 --> 00:49:02,480
Speaker 2: to overtake another on and get that spot back. So

982
00:49:03,040 --> 00:49:05,680
Speaker 2: and the Champions of Champion planning change is expanding and

983
00:49:05,760 --> 00:49:06,480
Speaker 2: changing next year.

984
00:49:06,880 --> 00:49:09,040
Speaker 4: All right, well, that will do it quick mid week

985
00:49:09,080 --> 00:49:10,920
Speaker 4: episode that I said would be quick, and then we

986
00:49:10,960 --> 00:49:12,840
Speaker 4: managed to talk for over forty five minutes. But I

987
00:49:12,840 --> 00:49:14,560
Speaker 4: think it was fun to kind of take a reset

988
00:49:14,640 --> 00:49:17,560
Speaker 4: on like interesting notes, trends, tidbits, things we're thinking about

989
00:49:17,960 --> 00:49:20,040
Speaker 4: in those other leagues that we don't get to touch

990
00:49:20,080 --> 00:49:22,160
Speaker 4: on too much. Maybe we'll get some a little bit

991
00:49:22,200 --> 00:49:24,880
Speaker 4: of Siria talk, although I think inn is clearly the

992
00:49:24,960 --> 00:49:28,520
Speaker 4: best team. We'll get some Syria talk in maybe at

993
00:49:28,520 --> 00:49:30,440
Speaker 4: the end of our episode on Wednesday, because there's no

994
00:49:30,560 --> 00:49:33,960
Speaker 4: other leagues besides the prem and Syria this weekend. That

995
00:49:34,040 --> 00:49:36,320
Speaker 4: will do it for this episode of Wonder Goal. I

996
00:49:36,360 --> 00:49:38,200
Speaker 4: hope you guys enjoyed the roller coaster weekend. I know

997
00:49:38,280 --> 00:49:40,600
Speaker 4: BJ and I both had big Saturdays and then kind

998
00:49:40,600 --> 00:49:44,120
Speaker 4: of disaster Sundays, so it was definitely a roller coaster weekend.

999
00:49:44,560 --> 00:49:46,080
Speaker 4: We'll be back in the midweek, and then we'll be

1000
00:49:46,160 --> 00:49:48,480
Speaker 4: back with a new episode in your feeds wherever you

1001
00:49:48,520 --> 00:49:51,319
Speaker 4: get your podcast Thursday morning, with a full Premier League

1002
00:49:51,320 --> 00:49:54,400
Speaker 4: preview and a Boxing day look ahead glance, maybe one

1003
00:49:54,520 --> 00:49:57,520
Speaker 4: or two spots we like on the holiday. Thank you

1004
00:49:57,600 --> 00:49:59,640
Speaker 4: to BJ for joining me. This is another episode of

1005
00:49:59,640 --> 00:50:01,440
Speaker 4: Wonder Goal. Shout out to Bet three sixty five are

1006
00:50:01,480 --> 00:50:05,960
Speaker 4: great sponsors, and we will see you guys on Thursday morning.

1007
00:50:12,880 --> 00:50:17,360
Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1008
00:50:17,400 --> 00:50:20,200
Speaker 4: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1009
00:50:20,200 --> 00:50:23,280
Speaker 4: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler