1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:09,200 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along 2 00:00:09,240 --> 00:00:13,080 Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brownwitz Jay Leye, we bring 3 00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:17,159 Speaker 1: you insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and 4 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:22,440 Speaker 1: international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple podcast, sun Cloud, 5 00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:26,320 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, and of course on the Bloomberg Terminal. 6 00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:32,280 Speaker 1: Liza and Saunders joined us now the perfect guest to 7 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:35,800 Speaker 1: discussed this with char Schwab, the chief investment strategist. Liza 8 00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:38,440 Speaker 1: great to get your time on this program this morning. 9 00:00:38,560 --> 00:00:40,560 Speaker 1: Just your reaction. Listen to the news of the last 10 00:00:40,560 --> 00:00:42,520 Speaker 1: twenty four hours that we were talking about through much 11 00:00:42,520 --> 00:00:47,080 Speaker 1: of yesterday afternoon into this morning. Yeah, what was interesting 12 00:00:47,159 --> 00:00:50,400 Speaker 1: yesterday is how many headlines I read or saw or 13 00:00:50,560 --> 00:00:54,200 Speaker 1: heard that said, you know, Biden will be raising the 14 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:58,560 Speaker 1: capital gainst text and that's obviously not how legislation works. 15 00:00:58,600 --> 00:01:03,600 Speaker 1: So um, it's the proposal. This has been telegraphed. Clearly 16 00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:06,480 Speaker 1: a little bit of a shock yesterday obviously in terms 17 00:01:06,520 --> 00:01:10,759 Speaker 1: of market reaction, but it's a trial balloon and uh, 18 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:14,160 Speaker 1: much like with with any proposal, you tend to get 19 00:01:14,160 --> 00:01:16,520 Speaker 1: it watered down as you go through the sausage making 20 00:01:17,080 --> 00:01:20,560 Speaker 1: in Washington, and there are some moderate Democrats that are 21 00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:24,120 Speaker 1: not necessarily in favor of significantly higher taxes. So what 22 00:01:24,720 --> 00:01:28,280 Speaker 1: ultimately this looks like when um it whatever that is 23 00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:31,919 Speaker 1: broadly on taxes, not just kept gains, is probably something 24 00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:34,880 Speaker 1: different than what sits in the proposal at this point. 25 00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:38,119 Speaker 1: And then historically it's it's just a mixed bag. Really 26 00:01:38,160 --> 00:01:40,880 Speaker 1: hasn't had a significant impact on the market cap of 27 00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:44,000 Speaker 1: gainst tax changes in either direction. I'm not here to 28 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:46,319 Speaker 1: say don't worry about it. It's it's good for the market, 29 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:49,480 Speaker 1: but there's not a lot of indication that it causes 30 00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:51,800 Speaker 1: serious damage in and of itself to the market. But 31 00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:54,400 Speaker 1: love to say there's a lot of our listeners and 32 00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:56,560 Speaker 1: viewers don't know that you've had a real interest in 33 00:01:56,600 --> 00:02:01,400 Speaker 1: public policy, including your service to various administrations on fiscal policy. 34 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:04,600 Speaker 1: Let me give you a William Gale question over at Brookings. 35 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:09,120 Speaker 1: If we've raised the capital gains tax, is it possible 36 00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:13,919 Speaker 1: will bring in less revenue. Well, so that's the theory 37 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:16,120 Speaker 1: out there, some of the math that's been done, and 38 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:18,680 Speaker 1: of course it's going to be biased depending on if 39 00:02:18,720 --> 00:02:20,680 Speaker 1: you're you know, part of an institute that's more on 40 00:02:20,720 --> 00:02:22,920 Speaker 1: the right leaning side of the left leaning side. But 41 00:02:23,840 --> 00:02:26,880 Speaker 1: you know, there was some data out yesterday on an 42 00:02:26,960 --> 00:02:28,720 Speaker 1: assumption if it goes all the way up to the 43 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:31,200 Speaker 1: forty three and change, that that would actually be a 44 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:34,880 Speaker 1: revenue loser. That there is some point on the scale 45 00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:38,280 Speaker 1: that maximizes the revenue. And if the goal is to 46 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:42,079 Speaker 1: increase revenue, then you should focus on whatever that percentages 47 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:45,799 Speaker 1: if it's an egalitarian goals, And that's a whole different bloax. 48 00:02:46,080 --> 00:02:48,360 Speaker 1: When it comes to the market sol is in a 49 00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:50,720 Speaker 1: lot of people were saying that some of the highest 50 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:53,800 Speaker 1: bid stocks or bitcoin for example, would suffer the most. 51 00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:56,640 Speaker 1: On an ongoing basis is people try to get out 52 00:02:57,280 --> 00:03:00,400 Speaker 1: solidify their gains ahead of these capital gains to access. 53 00:03:00,760 --> 00:03:02,959 Speaker 1: Do you think that type of selling has legs that 54 00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:04,519 Speaker 1: it will continue or do you think that it was 55 00:03:04,560 --> 00:03:07,120 Speaker 1: sort of a knee jerk reaction and frankly, is a 56 00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:10,760 Speaker 1: buying opportunity. Well, I think it's sort of yes and yes, 57 00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:12,440 Speaker 1: and not so much the buying opportunity. It was a 58 00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:15,040 Speaker 1: kne jerk reaction, but that doesn't mean that all the 59 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:18,200 Speaker 1: selling is done and that that one day gives you 60 00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:21,000 Speaker 1: an entry point. I think I think sentiment has been 61 00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:24,600 Speaker 1: so froughthy and so stretched, and we've talked about this 62 00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:26,720 Speaker 1: before in this program. In and of itself, that doesn't 63 00:03:26,720 --> 00:03:29,519 Speaker 1: suggest a contrarian move in the economy, but it increases 64 00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:32,000 Speaker 1: the risk of the extent there's some sort of negative catalyst. 65 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:35,040 Speaker 1: That's what happened to a large degree last year. Were 66 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:37,360 Speaker 1: really fraught the sentiment in January and February, and then 67 00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:39,160 Speaker 1: of course we got the mother of all catalysts with 68 00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:42,600 Speaker 1: covid um. I think this could represent one of those 69 00:03:42,640 --> 00:03:45,480 Speaker 1: catalysts that could increase choppiness. And to your point Lea's, 70 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:49,360 Speaker 1: I think it does put downward pressure on real momentum 71 00:03:49,480 --> 00:03:51,920 Speaker 1: is the greatest where gains are most lofty, and you 72 00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 1: do see that in history. You see some churning, you 73 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 1: see it dumping in momentum um, you do tend to 74 00:03:57,280 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 1: see a bit of a weight on some of the 75 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:02,960 Speaker 1: higher value stocks, and and any selling that occurs in 76 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:06,560 Speaker 1: anticipation of that, of course, tends to be focused in 77 00:04:07,080 --> 00:04:10,720 Speaker 1: stocks that have the biggest, biggest games. Well listen, putting 78 00:04:10,760 --> 00:04:13,640 Speaker 1: aside the capital gains taxes for just a moment, we've 79 00:04:13,680 --> 00:04:17,479 Speaker 1: gotten earnings that have beaten on average pretty significantly they've 80 00:04:17,480 --> 00:04:20,799 Speaker 1: been very good. What is the market looking to fundamentally, 81 00:04:21,200 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 1: If yes, it is perhaps getting a bit of a 82 00:04:23,520 --> 00:04:26,400 Speaker 1: hit from this proposal, which is not going to necessarily 83 00:04:26,440 --> 00:04:29,560 Speaker 1: get get past as it is. What does that tell 84 00:04:29,640 --> 00:04:32,520 Speaker 1: you about what's driving the market right now? Well, here's 85 00:04:32,640 --> 00:04:36,480 Speaker 1: here's the funny history about earnings and stock market performance. 86 00:04:36,520 --> 00:04:39,560 Speaker 1: We know they're connected, but there's more of a lead 87 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:43,479 Speaker 1: lag situation than I think people generally understand. If you 88 00:04:43,600 --> 00:04:45,839 Speaker 1: go back the entire history of the S and P five, 89 00:04:46,279 --> 00:04:49,640 Speaker 1: you break earnings into various zones. Maybe no surprise, the 90 00:04:49,680 --> 00:04:53,159 Speaker 1: worst market performance has come when earnings are in total 91 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:57,599 Speaker 1: plunge mode, down more than but once the market starts 92 00:04:57,680 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 1: to price in the inflection point back up, the best 93 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:05,800 Speaker 1: performance comes when earnings are still down between negative and 94 00:05:05,880 --> 00:05:09,760 Speaker 1: negative ten percent. It's acceleration off the lows that gives 95 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:13,719 Speaker 1: you the huge pop in the stock market in anticipation 96 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:16,120 Speaker 1: of the improvement. By the time you get to more 97 00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:19,520 Speaker 1: than twenty earnings growth, you're down into the very low 98 00:05:19,640 --> 00:05:23,279 Speaker 1: single digit return territory because at that point the market 99 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:26,200 Speaker 1: has priced in the third So I think a lot 100 00:05:26,240 --> 00:05:29,000 Speaker 1: of that is what you're seeing. You've seen a market 101 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:31,760 Speaker 1: that over the past year, so extraordinarily well in part 102 00:05:31,800 --> 00:05:35,560 Speaker 1: pricing in the earnings growth we're now experiencing. What's your 103 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:38,840 Speaker 1: SPX level up twelve months? I mean give us the 104 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:47,680 Speaker 1: Saunders levels. You know I don't do that. Nobody's watchings 105 00:05:49,360 --> 00:05:52,279 Speaker 1: have no value to individual investors. I don't know where 106 00:05:52,279 --> 00:05:57,480 Speaker 1: the markets come close today. And see dem I can 107 00:05:57,600 --> 00:05:59,920 Speaker 1: see the value of that exercise, and they sound thinking 108 00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:01,960 Speaker 1: of him. You know, I've done this routine with not 109 00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:04,480 Speaker 1: for years and he's still asking you that questions on 110 00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:15,240 Speaker 1: this that shall chief investment strategists Sarah House where us 111 00:06:15,279 --> 00:06:18,240 Speaker 1: with Wells Fargo. Their senior economists were thrilled that she 112 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:20,479 Speaker 1: could join this morning or work at two Lane in 113 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:23,320 Speaker 1: the London School of Economics. Sarah, Um, I really want 114 00:06:23,360 --> 00:06:25,040 Speaker 1: to go to one part of your note which takes 115 00:06:25,080 --> 00:06:29,360 Speaker 1: me back to John Taylor Stanford, and that has anchored unanchored. 116 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:34,279 Speaker 1: How close are we to unanchored inflation? Well, I think 117 00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:37,279 Speaker 1: we might be closer than the FED really thinks right now. 118 00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:40,920 Speaker 1: And I think importantly in terms of how much lead 119 00:06:40,960 --> 00:06:44,640 Speaker 1: time that the Fed has regarding whether inflation expectations are 120 00:06:44,680 --> 00:06:48,640 Speaker 1: actually getting away from them. It's short, it's it's very 121 00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:52,680 Speaker 1: very short. They don't have it doesn't inflation expectations, for 122 00:06:52,760 --> 00:06:55,520 Speaker 1: all the focus the FED gifts on them, isn't a 123 00:06:55,600 --> 00:06:58,560 Speaker 1: very reliable indicator in the short term of of how 124 00:06:58,640 --> 00:07:01,440 Speaker 1: quickly inflation is This new mean it's very much informed 125 00:07:01,720 --> 00:07:04,800 Speaker 1: by the current inflation environment, which means, as we continue 126 00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:08,120 Speaker 1: to see inflation heat up over this year, expectations could 127 00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:09,880 Speaker 1: get away from the FED rather quickly, and then we 128 00:07:09,880 --> 00:07:13,280 Speaker 1: get language from a central bank. I guess tapers the phrase, 129 00:07:13,280 --> 00:07:16,080 Speaker 1: but I'll let you decide what the languages Russia's central 130 00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:19,280 Speaker 1: bank moments ago job boning up a rate increase out 131 00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 1: there ruble moves fractionally from a seventy five point five 132 00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:27,520 Speaker 1: zero downbreaking through seventy five stronger Russian ruble. When what 133 00:07:27,760 --> 00:07:30,600 Speaker 1: kind of language do you expect to see from an 134 00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:34,360 Speaker 1: American central bank when and if they have to go 135 00:07:34,440 --> 00:07:38,160 Speaker 1: with the anchor the unanchored. I'd say I think in 136 00:07:38,240 --> 00:07:42,040 Speaker 1: terms of FED chatter and what the Fed's communicating right now, 137 00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:45,560 Speaker 1: I think that all eyes really are are on what 138 00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:49,720 Speaker 1: constitutes substantial progress right now. So you know, Chirpal and 139 00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:52,400 Speaker 1: other members have been pretty clear that the next step 140 00:07:52,440 --> 00:07:56,320 Speaker 1: on this path to normalization is going to come from tapering, 141 00:07:56,560 --> 00:07:59,400 Speaker 1: and they've been in many ways more vague about what 142 00:07:59,480 --> 00:08:02,560 Speaker 1: constant toot what they need to see for substantial for 143 00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:06,160 Speaker 1: their progress relative to what they've actually seen towards the 144 00:08:06,160 --> 00:08:09,680 Speaker 1: FED funds rate, and so um we're looking in terms 145 00:08:09,840 --> 00:08:13,960 Speaker 1: of whether they're still keeping keeping that phrasing around on 146 00:08:14,080 --> 00:08:18,200 Speaker 1: track for substantial for further progress, and really it comes 147 00:08:18,240 --> 00:08:21,040 Speaker 1: down to, I think more so, what's happening on on 148 00:08:21,080 --> 00:08:22,960 Speaker 1: the labor market front. We know we're going to get 149 00:08:22,960 --> 00:08:25,080 Speaker 1: this pop in inflation this year, but that is not 150 00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:28,920 Speaker 1: the Fed's primary concern. It's really coming down to what 151 00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:31,160 Speaker 1: we're what we're seeing in terms of the labor market 152 00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:36,760 Speaker 1: and if that's moving along nicely enough as farage wage 153 00:08:36,800 --> 00:08:40,480 Speaker 1: inflation were months from wage inflation, aren't we totally That's 154 00:08:40,480 --> 00:08:42,160 Speaker 1: why we're not going to have a conversation about right 155 00:08:42,200 --> 00:08:44,120 Speaker 1: and interest rates for a long time. And this will 156 00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:46,079 Speaker 1: come down to the balance sheet. So, Sarah, is this 157 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:49,280 Speaker 1: just a case of ce you in June? I think 158 00:08:49,520 --> 00:08:51,880 Speaker 1: next week's meeting very much so. I think it's going 159 00:08:51,920 --> 00:08:54,959 Speaker 1: to be going to be very quiet non event I 160 00:08:55,000 --> 00:08:56,880 Speaker 1: don't think we're going to get really any change in 161 00:08:56,920 --> 00:08:59,560 Speaker 1: tone at all. Coming from the FED as much as 162 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:02,920 Speaker 1: Chair will be pressed in his press conference. And so 163 00:09:02,960 --> 00:09:05,480 Speaker 1: I think in in you know, every meat FED meeting 164 00:09:05,559 --> 00:09:08,120 Speaker 1: is important, but some more so than others, and and 165 00:09:08,160 --> 00:09:09,880 Speaker 1: this is just not one of them. Tom's right to 166 00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:12,000 Speaker 1: bring up the wage issue. Let's talk about the compositional 167 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:13,600 Speaker 1: story that I think we'll spend a lot of time 168 00:09:13,640 --> 00:09:15,520 Speaker 1: on over the next couple of months. What will the 169 00:09:15,559 --> 00:09:18,920 Speaker 1: wage picture look like with that in mind, Well, I 170 00:09:18,920 --> 00:09:21,640 Speaker 1: think the wage picture is actually firming a lot faster 171 00:09:21,760 --> 00:09:25,000 Speaker 1: than than people expected. So yes, we're down about eight 172 00:09:25,000 --> 00:09:27,720 Speaker 1: and a half million jobs relative to where we were 173 00:09:27,760 --> 00:09:30,800 Speaker 1: before COVID, but there are pockets that are are really 174 00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:33,760 Speaker 1: struggling for workers right now, and in fact, we're already 175 00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:36,440 Speaker 1: seeing wage growth firm. Look at what's happened with the 176 00:09:36,440 --> 00:09:40,160 Speaker 1: e c I in terms of manufacturing, in terms of transportation, 177 00:09:40,280 --> 00:09:43,160 Speaker 1: in terms of construction, and we get e c I 178 00:09:43,240 --> 00:09:45,200 Speaker 1: data next week for the first quarter, and I think 179 00:09:45,240 --> 00:09:49,199 Speaker 1: that will show that we were seeing wages on that 180 00:09:49,240 --> 00:09:52,920 Speaker 1: measure which does control for composition. You know, we're increasing 181 00:09:53,320 --> 00:09:54,760 Speaker 1: you know two and a quarter, almost two and a 182 00:09:54,800 --> 00:09:58,199 Speaker 1: half percent, that's you know, almost a full percentage point 183 00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:00,400 Speaker 1: about above what we saw coming no out of the 184 00:10:00,400 --> 00:10:03,240 Speaker 1: Great Recession, and so we actually are seeing more more 185 00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:06,120 Speaker 1: wage pressures. Then then we have an in prior period, 186 00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:09,600 Speaker 1: so there there's more um in terms of labor inflation 187 00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:13,280 Speaker 1: coming then I think um people are appreciating right now perhaps, 188 00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:14,960 Speaker 1: but the question is for how long? Right because there 189 00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:17,360 Speaker 1: are these frictions that people talk about, whether it's leisure 190 00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:19,960 Speaker 1: trying to bring back workers in mass who perhaps have 191 00:10:20,080 --> 00:10:22,320 Speaker 1: child care issues or other things that aren't coming back, 192 00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:24,880 Speaker 1: or just manufacturing jobs that have ramped up that are 193 00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:27,280 Speaker 1: going to wane as people go back to experiences. I mean, 194 00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:29,640 Speaker 1: how much is this temporary and how much is this 195 00:10:29,760 --> 00:10:34,000 Speaker 1: permanent wage inflation that's structural and speaks to perhaps less 196 00:10:34,000 --> 00:10:37,679 Speaker 1: slack in the labor market than people have expected. Well, 197 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:40,160 Speaker 1: I think, you know, we tend to see wages move 198 00:10:39,920 --> 00:10:42,400 Speaker 1: move pretty slowly. There's not you know, in terms of 199 00:10:42,400 --> 00:10:44,600 Speaker 1: the trend, it's it's not terribly volatile. So I think 200 00:10:44,640 --> 00:10:46,920 Speaker 1: the fact that we already seem to find a floor 201 00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:49,440 Speaker 1: in that trend, it does suggest that will continue to 202 00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:52,360 Speaker 1: see gradual upward pressure. And then I think it also 203 00:10:52,400 --> 00:10:55,000 Speaker 1: comes back to what we talked about at the start 204 00:10:55,040 --> 00:10:59,480 Speaker 1: of this conversation. Expectations, and so if we are seeing 205 00:10:59,480 --> 00:11:03,120 Speaker 1: stronger inflation and it does take more for workers to 206 00:11:03,160 --> 00:11:05,600 Speaker 1: come back, then then I think you could see that 207 00:11:05,760 --> 00:11:09,679 Speaker 1: wage trend continue to move higher. Meanwhile, we're dealing with 208 00:11:09,800 --> 00:11:13,680 Speaker 1: a proposal from the Biden administration with respect to higher 209 00:11:13,720 --> 00:11:17,360 Speaker 1: capital gains taxes that does shift the focus of where 210 00:11:17,400 --> 00:11:20,720 Speaker 1: the taxes go that basically push people into spending more 211 00:11:21,160 --> 00:11:24,280 Speaker 1: on people on things rather than just putting their money 212 00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:27,600 Speaker 1: into capital markets. Do you have any modeling for what 213 00:11:27,640 --> 00:11:29,360 Speaker 1: this would do to growth? What this would do to 214 00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:33,600 Speaker 1: investment is already precedent for this type of proposal. Let 215 00:11:33,679 --> 00:11:37,040 Speaker 1: think in terms of how this could potentially affect the 216 00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:42,200 Speaker 1: outlook and the fact that it could help stabilize that 217 00:11:42,280 --> 00:11:44,880 Speaker 1: the deficit. You know, we saw the deficit actually increasing 218 00:11:44,920 --> 00:11:49,199 Speaker 1: before COVID, and that was really driven by more entitlement 219 00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:51,920 Speaker 1: spending than than anything else. So to the extent that 220 00:11:51,960 --> 00:11:57,040 Speaker 1: we are seeing um plans for spending that actually might 221 00:11:57,120 --> 00:12:00,360 Speaker 1: go to factors that boost product productive capath a city 222 00:12:00,840 --> 00:12:03,400 Speaker 1: in the economy, I think that has a very different 223 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:07,320 Speaker 1: implication um in terms of how that spending manifests and 224 00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:09,920 Speaker 1: if you are actually trying to meet some of that 225 00:12:10,040 --> 00:12:15,720 Speaker 1: with with actually bringing bringing in stronger, stronger revenues as 226 00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:17,959 Speaker 1: as well. So I think it really depends on on 227 00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:21,920 Speaker 1: how we are spending whether that raises the productive capacity 228 00:12:22,280 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 1: um in terms of that that deficit outlook. And I 229 00:12:25,280 --> 00:12:28,400 Speaker 1: think when it comes to the focus on corporations right now, 230 00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:31,120 Speaker 1: it's it's really a matter of following the money. Labor 231 00:12:31,120 --> 00:12:34,040 Speaker 1: share of income has been declining since the seventies, and 232 00:12:34,080 --> 00:12:36,559 Speaker 1: so I think if we are looking at at ways 233 00:12:36,600 --> 00:12:39,680 Speaker 1: to potentially stabilize that that deficit picture, you are going 234 00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:42,920 Speaker 1: to have to shift more towards the corporate side, serve 235 00:12:43,000 --> 00:12:44,959 Speaker 1: very quickly or what do you see on Capex? What's 236 00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:47,760 Speaker 1: the Wells Fargo prediction of what companies actually do. I 237 00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:50,880 Speaker 1: don't buy for a moment there's a Capex plan. When 238 00:12:50,920 --> 00:12:52,880 Speaker 1: I see the share buy back tone of the first 239 00:12:52,880 --> 00:12:56,840 Speaker 1: earnings reports, well, I think we've we've already seen a 240 00:12:56,840 --> 00:12:59,960 Speaker 1: lot of CAPEX in many ways pulled forward at lea 241 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:03,480 Speaker 1: when it comes to the the high tech CAPEX that 242 00:13:03,559 --> 00:13:05,800 Speaker 1: has helped. You know, so many of us work work 243 00:13:05,880 --> 00:13:08,520 Speaker 1: from home. But I think as we continue to see 244 00:13:08,600 --> 00:13:11,240 Speaker 1: some of these supply constraints affecting more of the good 245 00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:14,360 Speaker 1: side of the economy, you are seeing some of that 246 00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:17,439 Speaker 1: that more traditional cat bax um come back, as as 247 00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:20,600 Speaker 1: companies are thinking a little bit more about expanding capacity 248 00:13:20,679 --> 00:13:23,120 Speaker 1: because right now, for many companies they're losing out on 249 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:25,880 Speaker 1: sales because they cannot meet demand. And so I think 250 00:13:25,920 --> 00:13:30,640 Speaker 1: that helps underpin the capex recovery that's already well underway. Sarah, 251 00:13:30,679 --> 00:13:32,640 Speaker 1: We've gotta leave it there, Sarah House of wild Stark 252 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:35,000 Speaker 1: on the US economy and the outlook with the Federal 253 00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:41,960 Speaker 1: Reserve mating just next week. Right now, on the fixed 254 00:13:42,000 --> 00:13:43,839 Speaker 1: income space, John, I want you to bring in pre 255 00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:46,600 Speaker 1: a misrab with TV securities because on a full faith 256 00:13:46,640 --> 00:13:50,440 Speaker 1: and credit basis, we are at a surprising point this later, Yeah, 257 00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:52,679 Speaker 1: a really difficult point that people are ready struggling to read. 258 00:13:52,720 --> 00:13:55,120 Speaker 1: Let's bring in pre Amisra of TV securities. Pre A 259 00:13:55,200 --> 00:13:57,920 Speaker 1: the data is better, yield to lower and everybody stretching 260 00:13:57,920 --> 00:14:01,679 Speaker 1: their head trying to make sense of it, right, and 261 00:14:02,080 --> 00:14:03,880 Speaker 1: you know that's been the biggest question, is the move 262 00:14:03,960 --> 00:14:06,040 Speaker 1: over or we would argue if you look at if 263 00:14:06,080 --> 00:14:09,600 Speaker 1: you decompose the decline in rates to all being led 264 00:14:09,640 --> 00:14:11,720 Speaker 1: by real rates. So I think the market has finally 265 00:14:11,800 --> 00:14:13,760 Speaker 1: hurt the Fed that the FED is going to be 266 00:14:13,800 --> 00:14:17,560 Speaker 1: extremely patient that they're going to see act actual data, 267 00:14:17,679 --> 00:14:20,760 Speaker 1: not just forecasting data. And so therefore, with the FED 268 00:14:20,840 --> 00:14:23,760 Speaker 1: controlling the front end, not even talking about tapering, I 269 00:14:23,760 --> 00:14:26,480 Speaker 1: think that limits how much rates can rise. But when 270 00:14:26,520 --> 00:14:28,920 Speaker 1: we look ahead, you know, there's a lot of supply, 271 00:14:29,080 --> 00:14:31,560 Speaker 1: we have auctions next week, we have data that's going 272 00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:34,280 Speaker 1: to continue to look better. Um, we do think that 273 00:14:34,360 --> 00:14:36,320 Speaker 1: rates are going to continue to head highest. I'm still 274 00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:38,920 Speaker 1: looking for two percent on the tenure by your end. 275 00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:41,040 Speaker 1: So you don't think we've tested the tolerance really of 276 00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:45,360 Speaker 1: this market, this economic wants seventy five, seventy seven, No, 277 00:14:45,560 --> 00:14:48,920 Speaker 1: I think no, particularly when we look at real rates. 278 00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:51,680 Speaker 1: Real rates were not that high even in the movement. 279 00:14:51,800 --> 00:14:54,800 Speaker 1: Much of it was inflation expectations. So therefore, and and 280 00:14:54,800 --> 00:14:56,920 Speaker 1: and you look at broader financial conditions, I mean that's 281 00:14:56,960 --> 00:14:59,680 Speaker 1: what the Feds looking at. Broader financial conditions are still 282 00:14:59,680 --> 00:15:02,520 Speaker 1: extre really easy. So when you talk about testing, I 283 00:15:02,520 --> 00:15:05,400 Speaker 1: would look at real rates closer to zero on the tenure. 284 00:15:05,640 --> 00:15:07,960 Speaker 1: I think that's a level where the economy shows signs 285 00:15:07,960 --> 00:15:11,920 Speaker 1: of stress and financial conditions start to tighten. That's when 286 00:15:11,920 --> 00:15:14,440 Speaker 1: the FED will step in. But We're pretty far from there. 287 00:15:14,640 --> 00:15:17,640 Speaker 1: Contin your treasure yields rise to those levels you're expected 288 00:15:17,680 --> 00:15:20,560 Speaker 1: to percent by year end. If we don't get a 289 00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:23,680 Speaker 1: commensurate move of any sort over in Europe, over in 290 00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:26,680 Speaker 1: Japan and other words, can the US go it alone 291 00:15:26,960 --> 00:15:30,400 Speaker 1: with rates increasing on the longer end without a similar 292 00:15:30,400 --> 00:15:34,480 Speaker 1: move elsewhere? Great point. I think you know, global rates 293 00:15:34,560 --> 00:15:37,040 Speaker 1: do provide sort of a soft ceiling on the tenure, 294 00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:40,040 Speaker 1: but how wide can that spread go. We do expect 295 00:15:40,080 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 1: bonds to sell off a little bit, but we expect 296 00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:45,840 Speaker 1: treasuries to really underperform. I mean, but but there's a limit, 297 00:15:45,920 --> 00:15:48,760 Speaker 1: right because if the Japanese investors can come into treasuries, 298 00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:51,920 Speaker 1: European investors will find better yields and treasuries. So I 299 00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:54,480 Speaker 1: think it's important to look at global rates. We are 300 00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:56,440 Speaker 1: a little heartened by the fact that the pm I 301 00:15:56,560 --> 00:15:59,800 Speaker 1: data is coming a bit better, the pace of vaccinations 302 00:16:00,160 --> 00:16:03,680 Speaker 1: up in Europe, So expecting some lift in those European 303 00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:06,240 Speaker 1: rates over the course of the year, and that's going 304 00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:09,520 Speaker 1: to allow treasuries to continue to rise. And you needs, 305 00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:12,720 Speaker 1: on a technical perspective, we've seen the institution's pensions have 306 00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:16,200 Speaker 1: been rebalancing into treasuries. You've had buying not only from 307 00:16:16,240 --> 00:16:18,920 Speaker 1: overseas but also internally to try in the US, to 308 00:16:18,960 --> 00:16:21,840 Speaker 1: try to capture these yields, to lock them in ahead 309 00:16:21,840 --> 00:16:23,680 Speaker 1: of what some people think is going to be turbulence 310 00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:27,880 Speaker 1: in risk assets. How much does that buying suppressed yields 311 00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:30,000 Speaker 1: and sort of act as a cap, at least in 312 00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:33,200 Speaker 1: the near term, to how high rates could go. I 313 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:35,800 Speaker 1: think there is some of that. Absolutely, We've seen treasury 314 00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:38,760 Speaker 1: stripping data going up, and so I think if in 315 00:16:39,040 --> 00:16:42,240 Speaker 1: in isolation, that would have potentially put a cap to 316 00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:45,200 Speaker 1: how steep the curve could get. But here's the issue. 317 00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:48,360 Speaker 1: The U. S. Treasury is issuing twenty year, thirty year 318 00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:51,160 Speaker 1: to any year. They're issuing a lot of long and paper, 319 00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:53,000 Speaker 1: and we don't think they're going to start to cut 320 00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:55,320 Speaker 1: back any of that, particularly if you're gonna get another 321 00:16:55,320 --> 00:16:58,840 Speaker 1: four trillion of overall fiscal package. So you know, I 322 00:16:58,880 --> 00:17:02,520 Speaker 1: think the pension buying helps, and it limits how steep 323 00:17:02,560 --> 00:17:04,960 Speaker 1: the curve can go and how high long and rates 324 00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:07,280 Speaker 1: can go. But I don't think it's enough to offset 325 00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:09,840 Speaker 1: all the treasury supply that we're that the market will 326 00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:12,240 Speaker 1: have to take down over the next few months. We've 327 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:15,080 Speaker 1: been wrong so far on a big move in inflation 328 00:17:15,080 --> 00:17:17,440 Speaker 1: and a big move in rates. What will be the 329 00:17:17,520 --> 00:17:21,960 Speaker 1: catalyst to finally get rates move? Is it something about 330 00:17:22,040 --> 00:17:26,800 Speaker 1: economic data or is it more about the financial system. 331 00:17:26,840 --> 00:17:29,840 Speaker 1: I think it's about sustainability. I mean, it's the key word. 332 00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:33,280 Speaker 1: It's how transitory. Is this what the market I think 333 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:35,720 Speaker 1: is trying to grapple with. Is we know this economic 334 00:17:35,760 --> 00:17:39,679 Speaker 1: data is great, this is all reopening physical stimulus. How 335 00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:42,960 Speaker 1: much does behavior change? We're all becoming behavioral scientists, you know, 336 00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:46,760 Speaker 1: does behavior change? Do we all start using up uh, 337 00:17:46,960 --> 00:17:50,400 Speaker 1: you know, pent up savings? And is that reopening related 338 00:17:50,440 --> 00:17:54,200 Speaker 1: pickup in growth? Does that translate into a sustained increase 339 00:17:54,200 --> 00:17:56,920 Speaker 1: in demand and a sustained increase in inflation? And that's 340 00:17:56,920 --> 00:18:00,160 Speaker 1: what the FEDS watching for as well. You know, we're 341 00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:02,840 Speaker 1: a little skeptical that you'll get this massive pickup and 342 00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:06,159 Speaker 1: catch up service spending over the next year. You know, 343 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:08,440 Speaker 1: if you didn't take a single vacation last year, do 344 00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:12,080 Speaker 1: you take four vacations this year or six vacations? Unlikely? So, 345 00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:15,080 Speaker 1: you know, we still have a bit of a muted growth. 346 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:20,200 Speaker 1: But I think that's the key questions trying someone's trying 347 00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:25,639 Speaker 1: to get four vacations this year. Securities glob will had 348 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:35,320 Speaker 1: a right strategy to catch up right now. This is really, really, 349 00:18:35,760 --> 00:18:40,159 Speaker 1: really important because they were out front and early, David 350 00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:43,600 Speaker 1: Riches at Mount Sinai, his leadership with Mount Sinai Queens 351 00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:46,399 Speaker 1: as well, and they've been out front of the pandemic 352 00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:49,679 Speaker 1: with the sirens on the upper Upper east Side, with 353 00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:53,960 Speaker 1: the agony of their staff getting through the last fourteen months, 354 00:18:54,320 --> 00:18:57,680 Speaker 1: and now the celebration that we're beginning to see that 355 00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:02,040 Speaker 1: yes things are better, Yes thing their quote almost over. 356 00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:04,840 Speaker 1: Dr Rich joins us for an update. David Rich, what 357 00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:07,600 Speaker 1: is the almost over measurement right now as we go 358 00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:11,880 Speaker 1: into a wonderful spring weekend. Can you call pandemic ending soon? 359 00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:17,080 Speaker 1: I'm not quite that optimistic, Tom, but I think we're 360 00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:20,040 Speaker 1: moving in a great direction here. The peak that we 361 00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:22,520 Speaker 1: saw in the New York region in the second wave 362 00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:26,040 Speaker 1: in January has gradually come down, but it's coming down 363 00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:28,919 Speaker 1: at a much slower rate than what we see previously. 364 00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:32,280 Speaker 1: What we're seeing in our health system is that now 365 00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 1: they're between two hundred and two hundred and fifty patients, 366 00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:38,439 Speaker 1: the number of various a little bit day by day, 367 00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:42,480 Speaker 1: and the peak was somewhat over five hundred in January, 368 00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:45,280 Speaker 1: so it is a very slow decline, but we're learning 369 00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:48,960 Speaker 1: to manage and to live with this disease in our 370 00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:51,679 Speaker 1: health system as we try to do everything else to 371 00:19:51,760 --> 00:19:54,399 Speaker 1: maintain the health of New Yorkers. Dr Rich, We've been 372 00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:57,560 Speaker 1: talking about CDC guidance around people who have been vaccinated, 373 00:19:57,600 --> 00:19:59,879 Speaker 1: in guidance in terms of what they can and can 374 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,720 Speaker 1: not safely do, and there is a question of whether 375 00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:05,960 Speaker 1: their decision is being driven from a scientific basis or 376 00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:08,480 Speaker 1: whether it's being driven from a political basis to get 377 00:20:08,520 --> 00:20:12,000 Speaker 1: people to do things in a certain way to message 378 00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:14,320 Speaker 1: that there isn't a bifurcation and the haves and the 379 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:18,440 Speaker 1: have not. What's your view on sciences role in dictating 380 00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:21,360 Speaker 1: based on both the science as well as the political 381 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:25,840 Speaker 1: and ethical methods that are going on. I think that 382 00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:29,080 Speaker 1: the role of science is to provide data, but also 383 00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:31,840 Speaker 1: let's not forget that there is a branch of medicine 384 00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:35,119 Speaker 1: medical ethics that also has very important things to say. 385 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:39,479 Speaker 1: And I believe that medical science medical ethics can inform 386 00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:43,879 Speaker 1: public health officials, including the CDC as they as they 387 00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:47,000 Speaker 1: make very important decisions. I was impressed by reading the 388 00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:49,560 Speaker 1: New York Times article I think just yesterday about a 389 00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:52,320 Speaker 1: concept of a two out of three rule where we 390 00:20:52,359 --> 00:20:59,520 Speaker 1: consider indoor versus outdoor settings, vaccination, status, distancing, masking as 391 00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:02,520 Speaker 1: very important ways that we can move forward. And I 392 00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:05,920 Speaker 1: expect that we'll see evolution in the way that our 393 00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:10,600 Speaker 1: states and our frankly the federal guidelines evolve as a 394 00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:14,600 Speaker 1: greater proportion of the population is vaccinated. The rich. I've 395 00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:17,679 Speaker 1: got to go to your direct skill because it's really 396 00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:20,440 Speaker 1: important right now, and this is, of course the hematology 397 00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:25,199 Speaker 1: of Thomas Jefferson, the Cardesa Foundation. Your opinion please on 398 00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:31,840 Speaker 1: the blood study of the Johnson and Johnson vaccine. The 399 00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:35,359 Speaker 1: blood I'm not sure which blood clot the clouding, the 400 00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:39,400 Speaker 1: clotting worries of the j J. My fault. Yes, this 401 00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:42,760 Speaker 1: is a very very rare phenomenon. It's actually interesting. As 402 00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:46,119 Speaker 1: a cardiac and acesiologist, we know a variant of this 403 00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:49,600 Speaker 1: type of problem very well over the years. A syndrome 404 00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:53,119 Speaker 1: called Hepern induced thrombocytopenia, which is where a drug that 405 00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:55,960 Speaker 1: we use to thin the blood and prevent clots uh 406 00:21:56,080 --> 00:22:01,000 Speaker 1: to facilitate heart surgery causes a rare iman a logic reaction, 407 00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:04,040 Speaker 1: which is the same thing antibodies to a type of 408 00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:09,160 Speaker 1: plate that receptor p F four, and when that happens, 409 00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:13,200 Speaker 1: it's a paradoxical thing because it causes clots, as we've 410 00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:16,680 Speaker 1: seen some very severe clots in the brain UH and 411 00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:19,239 Speaker 1: potentially in other parts of the body. But it is 412 00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:23,840 Speaker 1: so exceedingly rare that I'm very optimistic that the c 413 00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:30,440 Speaker 1: d c ASIP, the group that advises the ccon UH immunization, 414 00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:34,320 Speaker 1: will probably proceed with a warning saying there is a 415 00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:37,680 Speaker 1: very very rare risk, but the real risk of dying 416 00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:42,160 Speaker 1: from COVID probably vastly outweighs the risk of this very 417 00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:46,960 Speaker 1: rare hematologic problem, perhaps, you know, by a millionfold. We'll 418 00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:50,679 Speaker 1: have to see exactly what the scientists that advise the 419 00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:53,919 Speaker 1: CDs come out. So in the in the times of 420 00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:57,119 Speaker 1: past of diphtheria and typhoid, we just said, shut up 421 00:22:57,160 --> 00:23:01,200 Speaker 1: and take the vaccine, take the medicine, take then about it. Whatever, 422 00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:04,880 Speaker 1: What will be your prescription for our viewers and listeners 423 00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:09,280 Speaker 1: once we get done with the CDC study, well as 424 00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:13,720 Speaker 1: as someone who's followed this, I am an advocate for vaccination, 425 00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:17,840 Speaker 1: and I think that although it's always challenging in society 426 00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:22,600 Speaker 1: to make things mandatory, perhaps in certain employment settings, especially 427 00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:25,920 Speaker 1: where there's higher risk, we may as a society decide 428 00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:29,320 Speaker 1: that mandatory vaccination is a reasonable thing to do in 429 00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:35,000 Speaker 1: certain circumstances. Already, certain educational institutions are thinking about what 430 00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:38,040 Speaker 1: it means to come back onto campus for students and 431 00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:41,680 Speaker 1: potentially requiring vaccination for all students. So I think we 432 00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:44,800 Speaker 1: already see examples of that in society. Doctrus, thank you 433 00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:47,159 Speaker 1: so much with Mount Sinai this morning, of course, with 434 00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:51,240 Speaker 1: his expertise and imatology is well. This is the Bloomberg 435 00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:55,600 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays from 436 00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:58,879 Speaker 1: seven to ten a m Eastern. I'm Bloomberg Radio and 437 00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:02,400 Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Television, and each day from six to nine 438 00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:06,840 Speaker 1: am for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 439 00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:12,000 Speaker 1: and international relations. And subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on 440 00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:15,879 Speaker 1: Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, and of course on 441 00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:20,200 Speaker 1: the terminal. I'm Tom Keane and this is Bloomberg