WEBVTT - Blackouts Loom

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Bloomberg Opinion. I'm Vonnie Quinn this week, what's

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<v Speaker 1>really interesting is this constant questioning, this idea that there

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<v Speaker 1>is always a consor narrative, so we have to constantly

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<v Speaker 1>bus everything to the point that everything is unknowable. Tara

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<v Speaker 1>for Era Marquez on Putin's propaganda war. Later, we'll speak

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<v Speaker 1>with Julie Ran on lessons China could learn from a neighbor.

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<v Speaker 1>First to the market though. Lots of FED speakers this

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<v Speaker 1>week before the FED hits it's blackout period, all vowing

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<v Speaker 1>the FED will conquer inflation. Here is Jerry J. Powell

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<v Speaker 1>at the Cato Institute Thursday. The longer inflation remains well

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<v Speaker 1>above target, the greater the concern that the public will

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<v Speaker 1>start to naturally incorporate higher inflation into its economic decision making,

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<v Speaker 1>and our job is to make sure that doesn't happen.

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<v Speaker 1>We're with Bloomberg Opinions. Connor Sen Connor. Some FED speaker

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<v Speaker 1>is going so far is to give specific reasons why

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<v Speaker 1>we'll continue to see inflation moderate Lele Brainer, for example,

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<v Speaker 1>talking about lower retail margins and cooling housing. How much

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<v Speaker 1>is the inflation threat receding. I think it's significant we're

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<v Speaker 1>going to see in the August inflation the PO report

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<v Speaker 1>next week. But we've seen gas prices come off a lot. Obviously,

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<v Speaker 1>there's signs of supply chains using all of the place.

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<v Speaker 1>Auto production is picking up, which would help with auto pricing.

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<v Speaker 1>That there seems to be some data suggesting that auto

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<v Speaker 1>prices are coming down now as well. And so then

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<v Speaker 1>it really becomes a question of your view of how

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<v Speaker 1>inflation will stick for core services and labor. But this

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<v Speaker 1>is subjective view. But I just think that that's going

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<v Speaker 1>to come down somewhat as well as the economy kind

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<v Speaker 1>of normalizes from its pandemic state. Right. But we did

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<v Speaker 1>see wage growth often just a little bit, right, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>it's not like the labor market is intensely strong, right,

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<v Speaker 1>And at the sector level, we're seeing signs that in

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<v Speaker 1>the industries where labor growth was the most acute last year,

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<v Speaker 1>things like leisure and hospitality and transportation and warehousing, things

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<v Speaker 1>like e commerce and Amazon, that in those industries that's

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<v Speaker 1>coming off more than it is for the labor market

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<v Speaker 1>of the whole, suggesting to me that that's going to

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<v Speaker 1>sort of spread throughout the rest of the labor market.

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<v Speaker 1>Has hiring catches up to demand. Yeah, so there are

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<v Speaker 1>question marks surrounding the labor market. In one sense, it's

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<v Speaker 1>help the economy. In another sense, a less strong labor

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<v Speaker 1>market is what we're looking for. So traders are still

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<v Speaker 1>looking for a seventy five basis point hike in September.

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<v Speaker 1>But is a less aggressive hike warranted given all the

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<v Speaker 1>bite spots that you know, you and I have been

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<v Speaker 1>pointing out and the moderating inflation in the data. It's

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<v Speaker 1>a complicated question because I think that the Fed's main

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<v Speaker 1>goal right now, and we sort of stave us with

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<v Speaker 1>sed share pal speech at Jackson Hole, is that they

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<v Speaker 1>don't want to market the price a pivot in monetary

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<v Speaker 1>policy and a surge back in stock markets and the

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<v Speaker 1>housing market and so on. They think that keeping markets

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<v Speaker 1>and the housing market kind of where they are, I

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<v Speaker 1>would say at least a few more months is critical

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<v Speaker 1>for them as they assess how much progress we've made

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<v Speaker 1>on inflation. And they can't really tell us that they're

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<v Speaker 1>anticipating inflation to come down in the near term, because

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<v Speaker 1>again then we would price that they have a tricky

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<v Speaker 1>path to walk right now as they bounce their goals. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>and obviously we're seeing improvement in curves and so on

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<v Speaker 1>as well, the copper curve for one example, but we

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<v Speaker 1>do still have the two sns inverted, not the price thirties.

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<v Speaker 1>Is the yield curve signaling procession right now? I would

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<v Speaker 1>say it's signaling that near term inflation is going to

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<v Speaker 1>be higher than longer term inflation. And whether you think

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<v Speaker 1>that means recession or that they'll sort of moderate their

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<v Speaker 1>stands down the road as there's signs that inflation has moderated.

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<v Speaker 1>That gets to a subjective question. I'm so optimistic, but

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<v Speaker 1>if you're looking for a recession, I'd say the Yelk

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<v Speaker 1>curve maybe there's the most smoking gun you can see

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<v Speaker 1>in markets right now. I saw I mentioned today a

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<v Speaker 1>City note actually the possibility of what they're calling transitory

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<v Speaker 1>stag inflation. So City talking about the potential to see

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<v Speaker 1>elevated inflation and slower growth for just a couple of quarters,

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<v Speaker 1>but that the result would be an enquoting now intensified

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<v Speaker 1>stress and financial markets and increased pressures on central banks.

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<v Speaker 1>So obviously City does have some concerns. Still, would that

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<v Speaker 1>be a scenario that you think is a possibility that's

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<v Speaker 1>arguabably got in the first half of the year where

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<v Speaker 1>real GDP growth was negative and inflation accelerated, and so

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<v Speaker 1>you know whether that continues or not. I actually think

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<v Speaker 1>we've been making progress there over the past few months

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<v Speaker 1>because we're seeing again that headline inflation is coming down,

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<v Speaker 1>the labor market remains strong, so for workers, real incomes

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<v Speaker 1>or seemed to be going again, which was not the

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<v Speaker 1>case in the first half of the year. And there's

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<v Speaker 1>also hopes that say, in the labor market, whereas workers

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<v Speaker 1>get up to speed, we've all the new higher in

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<v Speaker 1>the workplace, that they'll become more productive and that will

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<v Speaker 1>help with this sort of stagg inflationary head when you've

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<v Speaker 1>been dealing with as well. So I guess you're very

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<v Speaker 1>optimistic in some ways. But how much can we look

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<v Speaker 1>at the US market as a solo concern. Are you

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<v Speaker 1>concerned at all about China and Europe slowing as it

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<v Speaker 1>relates to feedback loops for example? Well, I certainly a

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<v Speaker 1>much more pessimistic on the foreign situations before China can't

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<v Speaker 1>seem to exit this code zerior situation. The ear problem

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<v Speaker 1>is pretty well understood and discussed in terms of they're

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<v Speaker 1>dealing with inflation, energy criss fallowing currencies, and it's very

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<v Speaker 1>hard to be optimistic about Europe over the next six months.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think the question is what are the feedback

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<v Speaker 1>loops into the US and for financial markets, I think

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<v Speaker 1>they're pretty high where we're seeing it in arguably that

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<v Speaker 1>as interest rates rise in Europe as a deild conflation,

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<v Speaker 1>that's pushing our yield higher. But the real economy pass

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<v Speaker 1>through is much more limited my opinion, and we're not

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<v Speaker 1>really seeing that yet data. Yeah, and so you might

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<v Speaker 1>skirt any problems, is what you're saying. I think right

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<v Speaker 1>now the adjustment is really happening more for Wall Street

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<v Speaker 1>than Main Street, and that's something that we're not used

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<v Speaker 1>to because for so long that was not the case.

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<v Speaker 1>And we see this in the jobs of or we

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<v Speaker 1>had another thre hid thousand jobs, and we see all

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<v Speaker 1>these problems in areas of concerning financial markets. We just

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<v Speaker 1>haven't seen the same thing happen in the real economy.

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<v Speaker 1>So Connor, let me ask you, then, plenty of calls

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<v Speaker 1>for the SMB to drop as much as scent I've

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<v Speaker 1>seen from here, the founder of Interactive Brokers among them,

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<v Speaker 1>but also Goldman Sacks Michael Bury Bank America clients and

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<v Speaker 1>net sellaries at the moment, are you looking for the

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<v Speaker 1>SMB to drop? Not like that right now. My view

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<v Speaker 1>is that earnings estimates have been pretty stable for the

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<v Speaker 1>past two months. We saw a little bit of weakness

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<v Speaker 1>in July, which is mostly due to the currency impact

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<v Speaker 1>on big tech companies. You know, Microsoft's earning less money

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<v Speaker 1>from Europe due to the rise in the dollar previously.

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<v Speaker 1>But outside of that, earning ustiments are pretty stable and

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<v Speaker 1>they're not really following. And so if earnings don't fall

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<v Speaker 1>at least meaningfully, then to me, you're not going to

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<v Speaker 1>see that kind of weakness in the stock market. You

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<v Speaker 1>might see some weakness as we've seen with rising interest

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<v Speaker 1>rates making equities relatively less attractive, but that's not attend

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<v Speaker 1>to fifteen percent sell off. That's just sort of stops

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<v Speaker 1>moving in line with the bond market. Yeah, So, where

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<v Speaker 1>is the potential for holes in your argument? Because when

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<v Speaker 1>you lay it out, it seems plausible, very likely. Even

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<v Speaker 1>there's certainly a lot of scenarios where this to go wrong. First,

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<v Speaker 1>energy prices could flare back up and bring back the

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<v Speaker 1>concerns of inflation that we had in May and June,

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<v Speaker 1>we might we might see that productivity growth of labor

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<v Speaker 1>market could continue to remain weak, which might mean more

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<v Speaker 1>labor markets flowing that I'm anticipating the set could just

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<v Speaker 1>mis read the economy and sort of overtighten into a

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<v Speaker 1>slowdown and sort of cause reception before they have time

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<v Speaker 1>to adjust. I think the path through is pretty limited.

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<v Speaker 1>But if Europe and trying to get worse, then there

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<v Speaker 1>could be some paths through there, so you could point

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<v Speaker 1>to things where this could happen. But it's just right now,

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<v Speaker 1>it's hard to see that with the state of the

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<v Speaker 1>labor market, the state of Happle balance sheets, sort of

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<v Speaker 1>where corporate America is my view of where inflation is

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<v Speaker 1>going over the next two or three quarters. To me,

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<v Speaker 1>we're just gonna do okay and model through even though

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<v Speaker 1>we're being a lot in certainty day to day, week

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<v Speaker 1>a week. Conners and there don't forget listeners. Get in

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<v Speaker 1>touch via Twitter at Vanna Quinn or email v Quinn

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<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg dot net. Opinions and comments always welcome. Russia's

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<v Speaker 1>RT Broadcast Operation bills itself as an English language news

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<v Speaker 1>channel which brings the Russian of view on Global News.

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<v Speaker 1>It's been banned in the United States and Europe, but

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<v Speaker 1>a boomer opinions. Clara Ferreira Marquez points out it's winning

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<v Speaker 1>friends in the developing world and as functioning as an

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<v Speaker 1>important instrument in Vladimir Putin's propaganda campaign. Tara Ferra Marquez

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<v Speaker 1>joins us, Now, so, Clara, what is RT? Who founded it?

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<v Speaker 1>Who runs it? So? RT is Russia's twenty four our

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<v Speaker 1>primarily the English but not only in English news network.

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<v Speaker 1>It was founders in two thousand five, really the creature

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<v Speaker 1>of two men, Mikail lives In, who was medium minister

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<v Speaker 1>but at that time already presidential advisor in Alex Sigma,

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<v Speaker 1>the former diplomat who'd run the press service, and they

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<v Speaker 1>really understood that Russia needed a better instrument to communicate it,

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<v Speaker 1>choosing to try and bring people around to the country's views.

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<v Speaker 1>They felt really that the international traditional media was not

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<v Speaker 1>doing a good enough job. And also the context is

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<v Speaker 1>at the time for two thousand five is also when

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of other non English sort of news channels

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<v Speaker 1>were coming out. So this is our Jazeera in English

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<v Speaker 1>France twenty four, So it wasn't alone at that point

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<v Speaker 1>in time. And then it really has als. And that's

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<v Speaker 1>what interested us when we were looking into it, is

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<v Speaker 1>how it has changed over time, right, because I remember

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<v Speaker 1>that year. I remember when it started. I had colleagues interested,

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<v Speaker 1>just as they were interested in Al Jazeera. There was

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<v Speaker 1>maybe a little bit of skepticism that there would be

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<v Speaker 1>some pressure from the top two tow aligne or what

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<v Speaker 1>have you, But in the main it seems like people

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<v Speaker 1>were actually okay with working in many of these broadcast outlets.

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<v Speaker 1>Did something change in the mission of RT over time?

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<v Speaker 1>What has it become? So? I mean, I think to

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<v Speaker 1>be clear, from the beginning, it was an instrument funded

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<v Speaker 1>by the Russian government and intended for a particular purpose.

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<v Speaker 1>It just was perhaps doing it in a slightly different

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<v Speaker 1>way to At the beginning it was more about presenting

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<v Speaker 1>news from Russia and the foremost of the Union that

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<v Speaker 1>you know, wasn't really covered elsewhere. It was a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit more straightforward. As it went on, things changed and

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<v Speaker 1>the turning point there were few I mean, the two

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<v Speaker 1>thousand and eight Georgian War was really a very significant one.

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<v Speaker 1>At that point, the realization in becomment that perhaps this

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<v Speaker 1>wasn't working as a way of getting their point across

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<v Speaker 1>because and the Georgian War happened, if you remember, that

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<v Speaker 1>was really about Russia having said they did not want

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<v Speaker 1>Georgia and later and later going ahead allowing Georgia to

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<v Speaker 1>begin talk, and then it accelerated from then on. I

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<v Speaker 1>mean really, then you had the n team if you

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<v Speaker 1>remember in twenty fourteen, that's a really good example of

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<v Speaker 1>how the Channel works in terms of counter narratives and

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<v Speaker 1>conspiracy theories. And then twenty seventeen and think of the

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<v Speaker 1>scriptile poisoning in the UK and then obviously now that

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<v Speaker 1>with the war in Ukraine. But what really then changed

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<v Speaker 1>is the way that it moved from being primarily worried

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<v Speaker 1>about Western markets who are much broader, do that focuses

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<v Speaker 1>on the emerging world. Well, so it's not officially an

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<v Speaker 1>arm of the government or anything like that. Is there

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<v Speaker 1>any kind of an effort to suggest that it's still

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<v Speaker 1>a free and fair organization or does it always just

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<v Speaker 1>spit out what the government press office will tell it?

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<v Speaker 1>So no, I mean our tea will say, and they

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<v Speaker 1>told us they themselves operationally and editorially independent. They are

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<v Speaker 1>however funded by the Russian g LINT. In their perspect

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<v Speaker 1>the constellation of media companies that are Strip related, not

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<v Speaker 1>all of them. Ownership structure is a little messy, but

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<v Speaker 1>it all comes under sort of Russian government funded organizations

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<v Speaker 1>that are certainly intended to get the Russian view across

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<v Speaker 1>and they are also I think very interesting characters that

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<v Speaker 1>pressly runs it women called who took over our tea

0:10:22.720 --> 0:10:25.560
<v Speaker 1>very early. She's only twenty five when she took it on,

0:10:26.000 --> 0:10:28.640
<v Speaker 1>and has with the war in Ukraine, become one of

0:10:28.679 --> 0:10:33.240
<v Speaker 1>the strongest, most hawkish voices on Russian domestic television. So

0:10:33.360 --> 0:10:36.719
<v Speaker 1>Art also has the sort of inn words function. It's

0:10:36.760 --> 0:10:39.280
<v Speaker 1>so fascinating because obviously you always want a free and

0:10:39.320 --> 0:10:41.640
<v Speaker 1>fair press. It is, after all, the fourth estate. But

0:10:41.679 --> 0:10:44.000
<v Speaker 1>even in the freest of countries and societies, you have

0:10:44.120 --> 0:10:47.000
<v Speaker 1>organizations with a bias or that are restricted in some

0:10:47.040 --> 0:10:50.920
<v Speaker 1>way by their ownership or run by very hands on owners.

0:10:51.160 --> 0:10:54.440
<v Speaker 1>Maybe elucidate for us the difference between something like a

0:10:54.520 --> 0:10:58.320
<v Speaker 1>Fox News or an MSNBC or Rupert Murdock's Empire in

0:10:58.400 --> 0:11:01.240
<v Speaker 1>Britain and Art. I mean, let's be clear that just

0:11:01.360 --> 0:11:04.080
<v Speaker 1>by the virtue of what we choose to focus our energy,

0:11:04.080 --> 0:11:07.439
<v Speaker 1>it's done in a way is editorializing, is making decisions.

0:11:07.440 --> 0:11:10.240
<v Speaker 1>But the fact is that most mainstream media make a

0:11:10.360 --> 0:11:13.679
<v Speaker 1>very significant effort to balance about reporting, unless it's not

0:11:13.920 --> 0:11:16.240
<v Speaker 1>done at I T and in fact it's not done

0:11:16.360 --> 0:11:19.120
<v Speaker 1>at Fox News either or indeed at the name group

0:11:19.160 --> 0:11:21.520
<v Speaker 1>at Murdoch outlets in the UK. But I think what's

0:11:21.559 --> 0:11:24.760
<v Speaker 1>really interesting is this what's about sism, which is this

0:11:24.880 --> 0:11:28.360
<v Speaker 1>constant questioning, this idea that there is always a counter narrative,

0:11:28.679 --> 0:11:31.120
<v Speaker 1>that we have to constantly bouse everything to the point

0:11:31.200 --> 0:11:34.920
<v Speaker 1>that everything is unknowable. And that's a really powerful propaganda

0:11:34.960 --> 0:11:37.000
<v Speaker 1>tool because if you think back to the Soviet propaganda

0:11:37.080 --> 0:11:39.520
<v Speaker 1>or in the US propaganda during the Cold War, it

0:11:39.559 --> 0:11:42.000
<v Speaker 1>was really about getting everyone to believe a particular narratives

0:11:42.240 --> 0:11:43.920
<v Speaker 1>in the Soviet case, to try and get everyone to

0:11:43.960 --> 0:11:46.880
<v Speaker 1>believe one thing. What's really powerful about tox news, about

0:11:46.920 --> 0:11:50.599
<v Speaker 1>talk TV, about our t in particular, really who pioneered this?

0:11:50.920 --> 0:11:52.840
<v Speaker 1>If you don't have to believe what we think, you

0:11:52.920 --> 0:11:55.840
<v Speaker 1>just have to believe in nothing. So if you'd undertake

0:11:55.840 --> 0:11:58.280
<v Speaker 1>an analysis of the rhetoric and the rhetorical devices, you

0:11:58.280 --> 0:12:02.320
<v Speaker 1>would actually see similar types of devices being used. So

0:12:02.520 --> 0:12:07.560
<v Speaker 1>beyond that rhetorical device, are there more that you've noticed Kara. Yeah,

0:12:07.640 --> 0:12:09.679
<v Speaker 1>there's a few. There's one that's very effective. It's the

0:12:09.760 --> 0:12:13.559
<v Speaker 1>mechanisms us been advertising to it. It's conspiratorial idea. It's

0:12:13.640 --> 0:12:16.400
<v Speaker 1>this idea that I as the host, I as Pucker Casts,

0:12:16.440 --> 0:12:18.520
<v Speaker 1>and I as one of the hosts on ARTI I

0:12:18.679 --> 0:12:20.559
<v Speaker 1>speak to you directly and they say, you know, you're

0:12:20.640 --> 0:12:24.240
<v Speaker 1>clever enough, you don't believe the official narratives. This conspiratorial

0:12:24.440 --> 0:12:28.400
<v Speaker 1>connection works very well. Also the use of social media

0:12:28.520 --> 0:12:31.240
<v Speaker 1>to both reinforce their narratives them to spreads them. That

0:12:31.600 --> 0:12:34.839
<v Speaker 1>is done very very well. The use of changing audiences.

0:12:34.920 --> 0:12:37.120
<v Speaker 1>So if you look at trust and mainstain media, the

0:12:37.200 --> 0:12:40.120
<v Speaker 1>look at the way people can staine you, especially in

0:12:40.160 --> 0:12:43.040
<v Speaker 1>the emerging world, much more on social media, which means

0:12:43.080 --> 0:12:46.280
<v Speaker 1>that it's much easier to consume partisan news because if

0:12:46.320 --> 0:12:49.120
<v Speaker 1>you're consuming news on social media's probably coming from people

0:12:49.160 --> 0:12:51.160
<v Speaker 1>within your circle of people. People need the same as you.

0:12:51.679 --> 0:12:53.599
<v Speaker 1>So it's not the same way as what it was

0:12:53.679 --> 0:12:55.920
<v Speaker 1>like in the seventies of races, for everyone watches the

0:12:55.960 --> 0:13:00.000
<v Speaker 1>same news religions, so it's encourages parts of the politics

0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:02.960
<v Speaker 1>well now. So these types of organizations have always existed,

0:13:03.480 --> 0:13:06.080
<v Speaker 1>but the viewer is supposed to use discretion in their

0:13:06.160 --> 0:13:09.199
<v Speaker 1>viewing habits. Right. It's not that these organizations shouldn't be

0:13:09.240 --> 0:13:12.400
<v Speaker 1>allowed to exist, although I'm sure some people would suggest

0:13:12.400 --> 0:13:14.559
<v Speaker 1>that they shouldn't be allowed to exist. How are the

0:13:14.679 --> 0:13:17.760
<v Speaker 1>viewers drawn in? And do we have viewership numbers for

0:13:17.960 --> 0:13:21.000
<v Speaker 1>something like arety So No, not really, I mean we

0:13:21.040 --> 0:13:24.160
<v Speaker 1>don't have very reliable ones. We have them necessarily patch rickly.

0:13:24.240 --> 0:13:27.800
<v Speaker 1>It depends country by country. Our T tends to focus

0:13:27.880 --> 0:13:30.480
<v Speaker 1>on people who are able to view the channel, which

0:13:30.480 --> 0:13:32.600
<v Speaker 1>is obviously quite different from people who view the channel.

0:13:33.000 --> 0:13:35.160
<v Speaker 1>I think the really important thing to understand about urt

0:13:35.320 --> 0:13:37.880
<v Speaker 1>about Fox News better these channels, that people tend to

0:13:37.920 --> 0:13:40.280
<v Speaker 1>view what they believe rather than believe what they see.

0:13:40.520 --> 0:13:42.840
<v Speaker 1>You can see the difference. It's not that people watch

0:13:42.880 --> 0:13:45.160
<v Speaker 1>our T and are instantly converted. It's the same way

0:13:45.160 --> 0:13:47.000
<v Speaker 1>that you and I can watch Fox News and not

0:13:47.080 --> 0:13:51.640
<v Speaker 1>automatically become you know, ultra Trump supporters. So that is true,

0:13:51.720 --> 0:13:54.760
<v Speaker 1>But then when you're dealing with the changing news environment

0:13:54.880 --> 0:13:58.000
<v Speaker 1>which people are consuming much more partisan news, it becomes

0:13:58.120 --> 0:14:00.760
<v Speaker 1>quite a different proposition. And I think it's important to

0:14:00.840 --> 0:14:03.760
<v Speaker 1>understmber that, Yes, the viewership is definitely small in Europe,

0:14:03.800 --> 0:14:07.319
<v Speaker 1>but subtractors as an instrument. Once it gets into societies

0:14:07.360 --> 0:14:11.400
<v Speaker 1>that are more skeptical a priori of the traditional media

0:14:11.559 --> 0:14:15.160
<v Speaker 1>of the US of Western intentions, you're feeding an audience

0:14:15.160 --> 0:14:17.679
<v Speaker 1>that is easier to bring along and also use of

0:14:17.800 --> 0:14:21.840
<v Speaker 1>societies where media is typically still funded. It's not doing

0:14:21.840 --> 0:14:23.960
<v Speaker 1>its own reporting. So, for example, when I look at

0:14:24.040 --> 0:14:27.120
<v Speaker 1>sprytnic and artie content that is reproduced in Southeast Asia,

0:14:27.360 --> 0:14:30.840
<v Speaker 1>it sucking reproduced without any such criticism because these organizations

0:14:30.880 --> 0:14:33.440
<v Speaker 1>do not have their people on the grounds in Ukraine, Sarah,

0:14:33.560 --> 0:14:35.920
<v Speaker 1>It's difficult to view are t through a non Western

0:14:36.000 --> 0:14:38.800
<v Speaker 1>lens because obviously we have our biases and our perceptions

0:14:38.800 --> 0:14:41.440
<v Speaker 1>and so on. But how is the art content perceived

0:14:41.440 --> 0:14:43.760
<v Speaker 1>in other parts of the world. Do people accept it?

0:14:44.440 --> 0:14:46.960
<v Speaker 1>Um Certainly people are a lot more sympathetic to something

0:14:47.040 --> 0:14:50.560
<v Speaker 1>like actually because it isn't seen as some crazy Russian outlets.

0:14:50.600 --> 0:14:53.280
<v Speaker 1>It's seen as the way of obtaining me but is

0:14:53.280 --> 0:14:56.480
<v Speaker 1>resably okay. And that is true in Africa, it is

0:14:56.520 --> 0:14:58.840
<v Speaker 1>true in mass America, it's true in the Middle East.

0:14:58.840 --> 0:15:01.080
<v Speaker 1>It's true here in the Asia atly in Southeast Asia,

0:15:01.120 --> 0:15:04.480
<v Speaker 1>particularly for example, in Southeast Asia, where Russia is perceived

0:15:04.520 --> 0:15:07.800
<v Speaker 1>as an Islamic friendly country as opposed to the worst

0:15:08.040 --> 0:15:10.400
<v Speaker 1>these narratives. They carry a lot of weight. And the

0:15:10.440 --> 0:15:14.600
<v Speaker 1>way that art has worked in lastin America's a good example.

0:15:14.720 --> 0:15:18.720
<v Speaker 1>They really have played to the strength speaking to particular audiences,

0:15:18.720 --> 0:15:21.480
<v Speaker 1>looking at particular countries where they are more accepted, for

0:15:21.720 --> 0:15:26.400
<v Speaker 1>example Argentina, Mexican Vinetuela. It's been very, very effective. You

0:15:26.400 --> 0:15:30.320
<v Speaker 1>have some fantastic examples of the types of slogans that

0:15:30.360 --> 0:15:33.320
<v Speaker 1>are associated with art in your story. One is question more.

0:15:33.640 --> 0:15:37.360
<v Speaker 1>You also mentioned that one of Artie's favorite talking points

0:15:37.480 --> 0:15:39.880
<v Speaker 1>is there are no good guys and no bad guys,

0:15:40.040 --> 0:15:42.240
<v Speaker 1>which is perially similar to something we heard here in

0:15:42.280 --> 0:15:45.160
<v Speaker 1>the United States back a few years which I won't repeat.

0:15:45.560 --> 0:15:49.520
<v Speaker 1>How did and how does RT deal with international news?

0:15:49.640 --> 0:15:52.080
<v Speaker 1>So for example the Giljan protests in France or the

0:15:52.080 --> 0:15:55.320
<v Speaker 1>Black Lives Matter demonstrations here, it tends to view and

0:15:55.400 --> 0:15:57.040
<v Speaker 1>this is true by the way of I see in

0:15:57.200 --> 0:15:59.840
<v Speaker 1>different languages, it tends to be The contents is different,

0:16:00.000 --> 0:16:03.240
<v Speaker 1>it is produced differently, it has a certainly different focus,

0:16:03.280 --> 0:16:05.320
<v Speaker 1>but the way they deal with it is recently similar.

0:16:05.400 --> 0:16:07.760
<v Speaker 1>So there are sort of three types of dues on art.

0:16:07.960 --> 0:16:10.760
<v Speaker 1>One is the sensational and this is particularly true on

0:16:10.800 --> 0:16:13.520
<v Speaker 1>social media. So these a lot of sensational content. It

0:16:13.600 --> 0:16:16.560
<v Speaker 1>could be violent in the US, it could be a volcanoes,

0:16:16.640 --> 0:16:19.880
<v Speaker 1>it could be the viral type content. That's one. The

0:16:20.000 --> 0:16:24.560
<v Speaker 1>second is um us content and content from Western countries

0:16:24.640 --> 0:16:27.960
<v Speaker 1>that shows dysfunctions and shows that these systems don't work,

0:16:28.000 --> 0:16:31.680
<v Speaker 1>and shows that multicultural systems have problems and serious ones

0:16:31.720 --> 0:16:35.080
<v Speaker 1>at that the Black Lives Matter occupy a Wall Street

0:16:36.120 --> 0:16:40.040
<v Speaker 1>June in France. These were absolutely brilliant for them. In fact,

0:16:40.080 --> 0:16:41.920
<v Speaker 1>it is such good work that they were nominated for

0:16:41.920 --> 0:16:45.640
<v Speaker 1>an Emmy. So um these are these are very important. Yes,

0:16:45.960 --> 0:16:48.600
<v Speaker 1>these the narratives that they fit with their view. I mean,

0:16:48.640 --> 0:16:51.760
<v Speaker 1>one really good example was the January stick, where are

0:16:51.840 --> 0:16:54.280
<v Speaker 1>t actually doesn't have to do anything. They just played

0:16:54.320 --> 0:16:56.480
<v Speaker 1>the images and it really just said this does it

0:16:56.600 --> 0:16:58.560
<v Speaker 1>look at the chaos that is in the Western world,

0:16:58.560 --> 0:17:02.000
<v Speaker 1>the last of conservative value use. It's violent, but they

0:17:02.040 --> 0:17:03.920
<v Speaker 1>just needed to show the image and they do that

0:17:04.040 --> 0:17:06.000
<v Speaker 1>quite a lot. And I think the third bucket with

0:17:06.080 --> 0:17:08.720
<v Speaker 1>international needs viewed through their lens and Russian needs, but

0:17:08.800 --> 0:17:11.439
<v Speaker 1>that really tends to be in the minority. You have

0:17:11.520 --> 0:17:14.480
<v Speaker 1>to wonder how much staffers know, or how staffers feel

0:17:14.520 --> 0:17:17.320
<v Speaker 1>about working at places like that. Are they completely on

0:17:17.400 --> 0:17:20.120
<v Speaker 1>board of everything? Do they have to sign nondsculture agreements?

0:17:20.119 --> 0:17:23.479
<v Speaker 1>For example, they do have to sign nonsculture agreements. There

0:17:23.600 --> 0:17:25.639
<v Speaker 1>is a different setting between the people who worked for

0:17:25.680 --> 0:17:28.239
<v Speaker 1>ACTI early on and then as it continued and they

0:17:28.280 --> 0:17:31.639
<v Speaker 1>became more apparent as the channel itself changed. But I

0:17:31.680 --> 0:17:34.719
<v Speaker 1>think it's important to understand the people that are see services,

0:17:34.960 --> 0:17:38.439
<v Speaker 1>and they generally hired young people, people who are desperate

0:17:38.480 --> 0:17:40.960
<v Speaker 1>to make it in the media TV. Is there absolutely

0:17:40.960 --> 0:17:44.000
<v Speaker 1>cut urate world. It's not hard to understand why very

0:17:44.040 --> 0:17:47.760
<v Speaker 1>generous offers that actually made particularly early years, was very appealing.

0:17:48.080 --> 0:17:49.720
<v Speaker 1>I mean a lot of people also less to be

0:17:49.760 --> 0:17:54.560
<v Speaker 1>clear in February, including some of their strongest forces. But

0:17:54.760 --> 0:17:57.879
<v Speaker 1>so yeah, people make complicated compromises. I think there's a

0:17:57.920 --> 0:17:59.680
<v Speaker 1>lot of people probably no, no, no, where we're in

0:17:59.760 --> 0:18:01.960
<v Speaker 1>the you know we work, and that people were able,

0:18:02.240 --> 0:18:05.040
<v Speaker 1>especially we're still employed, would say no, we're still able

0:18:05.080 --> 0:18:07.760
<v Speaker 1>to do the same reporting that anyone else does, which

0:18:08.040 --> 0:18:10.560
<v Speaker 1>find a little bit difficult to believe, just in terms

0:18:10.560 --> 0:18:14.080
<v Speaker 1>of editorial priorities. You make the point in the story

0:18:14.280 --> 0:18:16.879
<v Speaker 1>that Vladimir Puddin is going to use r T in

0:18:17.000 --> 0:18:20.000
<v Speaker 1>order to get through the sanctions and the impact of

0:18:20.000 --> 0:18:22.600
<v Speaker 1>the sanctions on the Russian economy. Explain what you mean

0:18:22.640 --> 0:18:25.480
<v Speaker 1>by that theory. I think it's says a wider strategy

0:18:25.520 --> 0:18:27.640
<v Speaker 1>as the Russian government has. But you know, as it

0:18:27.720 --> 0:18:30.440
<v Speaker 1>is increasingly isolated from the West, it needs to find

0:18:30.680 --> 0:18:35.320
<v Speaker 1>alternative markets. It needs different alternative political partners, people that

0:18:35.400 --> 0:18:37.480
<v Speaker 1>you can do business with, also people who can stand

0:18:37.480 --> 0:18:40.600
<v Speaker 1>by it in security Council votes, the United Relations and

0:18:40.720 --> 0:18:43.360
<v Speaker 1>at the G twinity. And so that's where the emerging

0:18:43.359 --> 0:18:47.000
<v Speaker 1>world is so important. And in particular non aligned nations.

0:18:47.359 --> 0:18:50.320
<v Speaker 1>You have those countries like Eritrea or Nuganda that you

0:18:50.359 --> 0:18:53.199
<v Speaker 1>know we'll fall behind Russia. But more important for Russia

0:18:53.200 --> 0:18:58.640
<v Speaker 1>are those who purport not to take aside, so China, Brazil, Indonesia, India,

0:18:59.280 --> 0:19:02.640
<v Speaker 1>these are really important countries for Russia. In the bulk

0:19:02.640 --> 0:19:05.600
<v Speaker 1>of that in America, bulk of Africa that Russian needs

0:19:05.640 --> 0:19:07.040
<v Speaker 1>to keep on side. And if you look at the

0:19:07.080 --> 0:19:09.280
<v Speaker 1>countries you have in post functions, I mean the large

0:19:09.280 --> 0:19:12.440
<v Speaker 1>proportion of the chiefs we have not Yeah, that's that's

0:19:12.440 --> 0:19:16.399
<v Speaker 1>for sure. And we'll see in November what happens in Indonesia.

0:19:16.880 --> 0:19:19.440
<v Speaker 1>Tie this all together for us, what else is available

0:19:19.480 --> 0:19:22.840
<v Speaker 1>to people given that Vladimir Puddin cracked down on media

0:19:22.920 --> 0:19:25.720
<v Speaker 1>and so many of the international journalists that were based

0:19:25.720 --> 0:19:28.119
<v Speaker 1>in Russia had to leave. I think it's important to

0:19:28.119 --> 0:19:31.639
<v Speaker 1>distinguish what the audiences that I see, how such primarily internationals.

0:19:31.640 --> 0:19:34.360
<v Speaker 1>There is our T in Russian, but it isn't really

0:19:34.600 --> 0:19:39.240
<v Speaker 1>used domestically. It is primarily other intentions. It does have

0:19:39.440 --> 0:19:44.399
<v Speaker 1>echos internally, so for example, arts Twitter content or artis

0:19:44.560 --> 0:19:46.920
<v Speaker 1>editor in chief wid Simon and can be used for

0:19:46.960 --> 0:19:50.920
<v Speaker 1>domestic propaganda purses and they are She's very very prominent

0:19:51.080 --> 0:19:55.199
<v Speaker 1>hawkish voice on Russian television, But Russian propaganda on Russian

0:19:55.280 --> 0:19:59.000
<v Speaker 1>TV for domestic consumption is just much more sort of

0:19:59.040 --> 0:20:02.320
<v Speaker 1>out there, much naked in its narrative, and these sort

0:20:02.320 --> 0:20:05.000
<v Speaker 1>of more outrageous things that are possible for the Russian

0:20:05.080 --> 0:20:09.280
<v Speaker 1>TV presented, which is a little bit more international in

0:20:09.359 --> 0:20:14.200
<v Speaker 1>this approach. Bloomberg Opinions At Clara Ferrera Marquez, you all

0:20:14.200 --> 0:20:17.200
<v Speaker 1>know Shuli Wren. She covers Asian markets and regularly discusses

0:20:17.280 --> 0:20:20.160
<v Speaker 1>China's economy and markets with us. Well. She finally got

0:20:20.200 --> 0:20:23.080
<v Speaker 1>to travel around the Southeast Asia again recently after a

0:20:23.119 --> 0:20:26.840
<v Speaker 1>long hiatus, A trip to Vietnam produced some fascinating insights

0:20:26.840 --> 0:20:30.640
<v Speaker 1>about what two communist countries can learn from each other. Socially.

0:20:30.880 --> 0:20:33.439
<v Speaker 1>China is slowing. The question we don't know yet is

0:20:33.440 --> 0:20:37.320
<v Speaker 1>by how much Vietnam, by contrast, is growing quite healthily.

0:20:37.800 --> 0:20:40.840
<v Speaker 1>Both communist countries, though obviously not carbon copies in terms

0:20:40.880 --> 0:20:43.639
<v Speaker 1>of their ideologies, and obviously there's huge difference as we

0:20:43.640 --> 0:20:46.720
<v Speaker 1>know in terms of GDP per capita, population size and

0:20:46.760 --> 0:20:49.160
<v Speaker 1>so on, but in terms of governance at least truly

0:20:49.440 --> 0:20:51.960
<v Speaker 1>tell us what Vietnam is doing differently to China that's

0:20:52.040 --> 0:20:56.000
<v Speaker 1>benefiting its economic prospects. I think the biggest difference with

0:20:56.200 --> 0:20:59.680
<v Speaker 1>Vietnam so far is that Vietnam seems able to self

0:20:59.720 --> 0:21:03.480
<v Speaker 1>correct from its pastistics. Believe it or not. Hoim City

0:21:03.560 --> 0:21:06.320
<v Speaker 1>basically the commercial herb above Vietnam. They also had a

0:21:06.359 --> 0:21:09.639
<v Speaker 1>really harsh lockdown for four months last June or the

0:21:09.680 --> 0:21:13.080
<v Speaker 1>way to September, and the military was out amiss, reports

0:21:13.080 --> 0:21:17.840
<v Speaker 1>of full shortages and untreated medical illnesses. And what happened

0:21:17.880 --> 0:21:20.760
<v Speaker 1>before that was that Paranoya was also like China, they

0:21:20.760 --> 0:21:22.920
<v Speaker 1>had a lot of national pride. They wanted to build

0:21:22.920 --> 0:21:25.840
<v Speaker 1>their own vaccine, but because of the Holciming City they

0:21:25.880 --> 0:21:28.840
<v Speaker 1>locked down. They decided that their vaccine was just not working,

0:21:29.040 --> 0:21:32.480
<v Speaker 1>and they started taking vaccines from everyone from Mastras, Anaca,

0:21:33.000 --> 0:21:37.520
<v Speaker 1>Visor Moderna, even from China's Sinal firm. Basically whoever whichever

0:21:37.640 --> 0:21:40.520
<v Speaker 1>contrade that was willing to donate the vaccine through the

0:21:40.640 --> 0:21:44.639
<v Speaker 1>diplomacy channels of the w h os Kovacs programs they

0:21:44.640 --> 0:21:48.119
<v Speaker 1>were taken. They even asked them some electronics to somehow

0:21:48.200 --> 0:21:52.120
<v Speaker 1>source vaccines for them worldwide. As a result Vietnam's economy,

0:21:52.160 --> 0:21:54.399
<v Speaker 1>they are fully reopened these days. If you want to

0:21:54.440 --> 0:21:57.000
<v Speaker 1>go into Vietnam, you don't have to show your vaccine

0:21:57.000 --> 0:22:00.159
<v Speaker 1>record or have a negative PC artist. You can just

0:22:00.240 --> 0:22:03.439
<v Speaker 1>go because they feel like they're pretty confident that the

0:22:03.480 --> 0:22:07.120
<v Speaker 1>whole population is vaccinated and they have pretty effective faccine

0:22:07.119 --> 0:22:09.720
<v Speaker 1>in the population, so they feel pretty good about that.

0:22:09.920 --> 0:22:12.639
<v Speaker 1>Whereas in China and these days, coming from Hong Kong,

0:22:12.680 --> 0:22:15.480
<v Speaker 1>we have more flights to hold Shimi City than to Shanghai.

0:22:15.560 --> 0:22:18.200
<v Speaker 1>In the month of August, there are only two flights

0:22:18.200 --> 0:22:21.600
<v Speaker 1>operated by a Cafe Pacific from Hong Kong to Shanghai.

0:22:21.680 --> 0:22:24.639
<v Speaker 1>That's just ridiculous. Well, and As a result of all this,

0:22:24.760 --> 0:22:27.880
<v Speaker 1>Vietnam is actually looking towards seven percent growth this year.

0:22:28.240 --> 0:22:30.679
<v Speaker 1>We know the China's five and a half percent target is,

0:22:30.720 --> 0:22:33.280
<v Speaker 1>as you actually put it on this show, fantasy at

0:22:33.280 --> 0:22:35.840
<v Speaker 1>this point. But the other difference is that Vietnam went

0:22:35.880 --> 0:22:38.560
<v Speaker 1>all in on stimulus. So fifteen billion dollars worth of

0:22:38.560 --> 0:22:41.600
<v Speaker 1>fiscal stimulus and an easy monetary policy in a world

0:22:41.680 --> 0:22:44.640
<v Speaker 1>where central banks are really turning, hawk is particularly fed,

0:22:45.119 --> 0:22:49.040
<v Speaker 1>how is this working out for Vietnam? So for Vietnam,

0:22:49.160 --> 0:22:51.719
<v Speaker 1>I don't think it's working out very well on the ground.

0:22:51.800 --> 0:22:55.600
<v Speaker 1>One complaint you hear from investors and the Vietnamese themselves

0:22:55.720 --> 0:22:58.160
<v Speaker 1>is that even though the government has pledged a lot

0:22:58.240 --> 0:23:01.840
<v Speaker 1>of stimulus, like infrastructure, your building, you just don't hear

0:23:02.040 --> 0:23:05.720
<v Speaker 1>construction sounds very much like infrastructure has halted, and that

0:23:05.840 --> 0:23:09.440
<v Speaker 1>that's actually stopping Vietnam from growing faster. I mean, Vietnam

0:23:09.560 --> 0:23:12.639
<v Speaker 1>right now, it's targeting seven percent, which is quite good

0:23:12.640 --> 0:23:16.400
<v Speaker 1>by global standards, but it's nothing compared to say, two

0:23:16.440 --> 0:23:20.000
<v Speaker 1>decades ago, when China was growing over ten percent during

0:23:20.200 --> 0:23:23.280
<v Speaker 1>China's export board. So I think Vietnam can do better

0:23:23.320 --> 0:23:26.399
<v Speaker 1>on infrastructure spending. Still a pretty phenomenal figure. Though for

0:23:26.440 --> 0:23:29.240
<v Speaker 1>a country just out of COVID, what are companies doing?

0:23:29.280 --> 0:23:32.040
<v Speaker 1>Are they looking to Vietnam as a potential base as

0:23:32.080 --> 0:23:34.800
<v Speaker 1>opposed to China or maybe even in addition to China.

0:23:35.880 --> 0:23:38.280
<v Speaker 1>So I think at this point the companies that are

0:23:38.320 --> 0:23:41.480
<v Speaker 1>only talking about China plus one. So a lot of companies,

0:23:41.520 --> 0:23:45.280
<v Speaker 1>like Apples supply chain, they're looking at bidding for industrial

0:23:45.359 --> 0:23:48.240
<v Speaker 1>land in the northern part of Vietnam, like Ya Hanoi,

0:23:48.640 --> 0:23:51.240
<v Speaker 1>in part because it's closer to China. Perhaps you know,

0:23:51.560 --> 0:23:53.840
<v Speaker 1>supply chain is just a little bit better, and in

0:23:53.920 --> 0:23:57.800
<v Speaker 1>part because multinationals do want to diversify out of China.

0:23:58.000 --> 0:23:59.920
<v Speaker 1>But one thing that I have to say though, is

0:24:00.080 --> 0:24:03.000
<v Speaker 1>that you know, like for the Boding electronic supply chain,

0:24:03.080 --> 0:24:05.560
<v Speaker 1>the supply chain is very very long. You have to

0:24:05.760 --> 0:24:11.400
<v Speaker 1>have everything basic materials, chemicals, acid or even construction materials,

0:24:11.440 --> 0:24:13.520
<v Speaker 1>and the Vietnam doesn't seem to have that. And then

0:24:13.560 --> 0:24:16.040
<v Speaker 1>when you talk to people on the ground, they were saying, yeah,

0:24:16.080 --> 0:24:18.359
<v Speaker 1>I would like to open factories, but I cannot even

0:24:18.400 --> 0:24:22.320
<v Speaker 1>find the aluminum window sills still have to somehow important

0:24:22.359 --> 0:24:25.080
<v Speaker 1>from China. So you do you do here? That's one

0:24:25.119 --> 0:24:29.080
<v Speaker 1>bottleneck that the economy itself doesn't produce basic industrials. And

0:24:29.119 --> 0:24:32.040
<v Speaker 1>another thing is the infrastructure. They just feel like, oh,

0:24:32.080 --> 0:24:34.439
<v Speaker 1>the roads are very very slow. The government can be

0:24:34.480 --> 0:24:38.200
<v Speaker 1>building faster highways. You know, Homing City didn't even have subway.

0:24:38.280 --> 0:24:42.080
<v Speaker 1>Right now, there's one big highway called the North South Expressway.

0:24:42.280 --> 0:24:44.919
<v Speaker 1>It's pretty much stopped. If you want to do like

0:24:45.119 --> 0:24:48.400
<v Speaker 1>express package from Hanoi to Hochem City, it can take

0:24:48.440 --> 0:24:51.560
<v Speaker 1>four days, whereas in China even today it will be

0:24:51.600 --> 0:24:54.439
<v Speaker 1>pretty fast within a day. Who or what policy is

0:24:54.480 --> 0:24:56.720
<v Speaker 1>to blame for that, truly, because you would imagine it

0:24:56.720 --> 0:24:59.320
<v Speaker 1>would be pretty easy and even cost efficient to get

0:24:59.359 --> 0:25:02.240
<v Speaker 1>flights in the are also to have ports built up

0:25:02.240 --> 0:25:06.360
<v Speaker 1>and down the vast coastline. Is that not happening? So

0:25:06.680 --> 0:25:10.040
<v Speaker 1>Vietnam is also doing anti corruption campaign just like China.

0:25:10.359 --> 0:25:14.120
<v Speaker 1>The General secretary he started his un president the third

0:25:14.200 --> 0:25:17.120
<v Speaker 1>term last year and he's worried, you know, with all

0:25:17.160 --> 0:25:20.080
<v Speaker 1>this one party route there. They want to ensure the

0:25:20.160 --> 0:25:24.479
<v Speaker 1>legitimacy of the Communist Party and he has been cracking

0:25:24.520 --> 0:25:27.240
<v Speaker 1>down and tech corruption. And then like all the officials,

0:25:27.280 --> 0:25:31.800
<v Speaker 1>they're just very scared. They just they are not even proved, uh,

0:25:31.840 --> 0:25:35.320
<v Speaker 1>like infrastructure projects because construction costs has come up. We

0:25:35.400 --> 0:25:38.440
<v Speaker 1>all not right globally. Material cost has come up. We

0:25:38.680 --> 0:25:41.280
<v Speaker 1>used to cost one hundred million, will cost like say

0:25:41.280 --> 0:25:44.520
<v Speaker 1>one million. And if you approve it, the government can

0:25:44.640 --> 0:25:48.000
<v Speaker 1>suddenly say why are you approving it? Trying to help

0:25:48.040 --> 0:25:50.840
<v Speaker 1>your friends and family, So like that's the problem. Like

0:25:50.960 --> 0:25:54.800
<v Speaker 1>anti corruption campaign has slowed down bureaucracy in Vietnam, so

0:25:54.840 --> 0:25:57.200
<v Speaker 1>it'll be some time before we see the infrastructure build

0:25:57.200 --> 0:25:59.120
<v Speaker 1>out that we saw in China, and that could make

0:25:59.280 --> 0:26:02.320
<v Speaker 1>a massive and well, so the other question is how

0:26:02.320 --> 0:26:04.640
<v Speaker 1>it's been holding up in terms of foreign reserves, which

0:26:04.640 --> 0:26:07.560
<v Speaker 1>seems to be pretty well, and we know in many

0:26:07.600 --> 0:26:10.520
<v Speaker 1>emerging countries right now, the problem is foreign reserves. Currencies

0:26:10.520 --> 0:26:12.480
<v Speaker 1>have been weakening as the dollar has been strengthening, and

0:26:12.760 --> 0:26:14.879
<v Speaker 1>some frontier markets are having to beg the i m

0:26:14.920 --> 0:26:17.159
<v Speaker 1>F for loans and meet all sorts of requirements and

0:26:17.200 --> 0:26:20.360
<v Speaker 1>so on. But in Vietnam they're near a record something

0:26:20.359 --> 0:26:22.920
<v Speaker 1>like a hundred and ten billion dollars right now. And yeah,

0:26:23.000 --> 0:26:25.640
<v Speaker 1>the Vietnamese dong has been depreciating, but the central bank

0:26:25.720 --> 0:26:28.240
<v Speaker 1>has been able to keep money market stable by selling

0:26:28.280 --> 0:26:32.119
<v Speaker 1>foreign currency. Does that continue? So I think that the

0:26:32.280 --> 0:26:35.520
<v Speaker 1>Enamese government is very nervous about the dog and then

0:26:35.720 --> 0:26:40.040
<v Speaker 1>about any talk of its weakening effects reserves because there

0:26:40.119 --> 0:26:43.040
<v Speaker 1>is a lot of water components in it. What happens

0:26:43.160 --> 0:26:45.159
<v Speaker 1>is that, say, like if you look at the Vietnam,

0:26:45.200 --> 0:26:48.520
<v Speaker 1>it's actually dipping into a current account deficit now because

0:26:49.000 --> 0:26:51.639
<v Speaker 1>the growth boy economy is flowing pretty fast. Right, So

0:26:51.680 --> 0:26:54.320
<v Speaker 1>what was happening right now is like say, at the

0:26:54.320 --> 0:26:57.719
<v Speaker 1>beginning of the year February March, the outlook was rosier.

0:26:57.840 --> 0:26:59.920
<v Speaker 1>So the likes of them song, I don't know. Fun

0:27:00.080 --> 0:27:04.479
<v Speaker 1>some they have imported a lot of electronic components into Vietnam,

0:27:04.560 --> 0:27:07.640
<v Speaker 1>so that was a big boosting import and now suddenly

0:27:07.720 --> 0:27:11.280
<v Speaker 1>they're stepping back on the end production and demand, so

0:27:11.320 --> 0:27:14.240
<v Speaker 1>they're not exporting as much. As a result, Vietnam is

0:27:14.240 --> 0:27:18.879
<v Speaker 1>actually falling into a trade deficit instead of what we

0:27:18.960 --> 0:27:21.480
<v Speaker 1>imagine would be a surplus. So the government is very

0:27:21.480 --> 0:27:24.040
<v Speaker 1>nervous and the Vietnamese they don't like it when the

0:27:24.160 --> 0:27:27.240
<v Speaker 1>down depreciates too fast. It is a problem that the

0:27:27.320 --> 0:27:31.359
<v Speaker 1>Hannoi is facing right now. Surely, more generally, can other countries,

0:27:31.400 --> 0:27:34.600
<v Speaker 1>not just Vietnam, not just even Southeast Asian countries, but

0:27:34.640 --> 0:27:37.320
<v Speaker 1>can other countries copy in some ways. For Vietnam is

0:27:37.359 --> 0:27:41.159
<v Speaker 1>doing and take away China's manufacturing shine, I think the

0:27:41.280 --> 0:27:44.320
<v Speaker 1>other countries they have to be very brave because what

0:27:44.480 --> 0:27:48.359
<v Speaker 1>China has done is that it has build up tremendous

0:27:48.400 --> 0:27:52.720
<v Speaker 1>infrastructure network and the supply chain network through that. I mean,

0:27:52.800 --> 0:27:55.000
<v Speaker 1>we all know China is one of the world's most

0:27:55.040 --> 0:27:59.760
<v Speaker 1>indebtict countries. So for you to take away China's manufacturing power,

0:27:59.800 --> 0:28:03.760
<v Speaker 1>you not only have to have broad, well connected infrastructure

0:28:03.800 --> 0:28:08.280
<v Speaker 1>network as well as a big industrial base. So basically

0:28:08.440 --> 0:28:10.639
<v Speaker 1>you have to be willing to take on that like

0:28:12.160 --> 0:28:15.000
<v Speaker 1>of your GDP. So unless countries are willing to do that,

0:28:15.040 --> 0:28:17.880
<v Speaker 1>I think it would be kind of difficult. Inflation it's

0:28:17.920 --> 0:28:19.960
<v Speaker 1>not as much of a problem in Vietnam as it

0:28:20.040 --> 0:28:22.520
<v Speaker 1>is in many countries obviously, but certainly it is a

0:28:22.520 --> 0:28:24.280
<v Speaker 1>little bit more of a problem than it is in China.

0:28:24.320 --> 0:28:26.639
<v Speaker 1>At the moment, we're looking at close to four percent

0:28:26.840 --> 0:28:31.000
<v Speaker 1>for Vietnam. Our authorities keeping a close eye, yes, and

0:28:31.040 --> 0:28:34.119
<v Speaker 1>then I mean China station could have been a lot worse.

0:28:34.440 --> 0:28:36.560
<v Speaker 1>Right now, the end demand is not so good. So

0:28:36.960 --> 0:28:39.680
<v Speaker 1>like if the Chinese and economy goes back to normal,

0:28:39.760 --> 0:28:41.840
<v Speaker 1>like the inflation would be a lot higher, and the

0:28:41.880 --> 0:28:45.440
<v Speaker 1>government is quite nervous about that because China overall inflation

0:28:45.480 --> 0:28:48.400
<v Speaker 1>has been pretty stable for like twenty thirty years or so.

0:28:48.480 --> 0:28:51.040
<v Speaker 1>But here and there you you see a little bit

0:28:51.080 --> 0:28:54.760
<v Speaker 1>of spike in the pop prices, vegetables, fruit, and also

0:28:55.080 --> 0:28:58.480
<v Speaker 1>we can go back to nine what happened during nine nine.

0:28:58.720 --> 0:29:01.800
<v Speaker 1>That was when China the really high inflation and pretty

0:29:01.800 --> 0:29:05.800
<v Speaker 1>low employment outlook and government nervous. Well exactly, we got

0:29:05.800 --> 0:29:08.760
<v Speaker 1>a warning from Presidentia and being on inflation, which was

0:29:08.800 --> 0:29:11.160
<v Speaker 1>actually quite a surprised But at the same time we're

0:29:11.200 --> 0:29:13.520
<v Speaker 1>seeing the central bank engage in a little bit of

0:29:13.520 --> 0:29:16.720
<v Speaker 1>monetary easing. There's the same conundrum going on for China

0:29:16.760 --> 0:29:19.360
<v Speaker 1>as there is for the United States, growth versus inflation,

0:29:19.480 --> 0:29:22.320
<v Speaker 1>right absolutely, And then like at this point it just

0:29:22.400 --> 0:29:24.959
<v Speaker 1>does seem that the COVID zero policy is going to

0:29:25.040 --> 0:29:29.480
<v Speaker 1>stay in China. The people who are basically executing COVID zero,

0:29:29.600 --> 0:29:33.720
<v Speaker 1>they are getting promoted, so basically all other bureaucracies will

0:29:33.760 --> 0:29:38.080
<v Speaker 1>have to somehow accommodate to prop up that COVID zero thing.

0:29:38.160 --> 0:29:40.600
<v Speaker 1>And that's why the PBOC is easing a little bit.

0:29:41.160 --> 0:29:44.200
<v Speaker 1>It's like a stimulus light I guess stimulus light. I

0:29:44.240 --> 0:29:46.600
<v Speaker 1>love that well, except for Hong Kong, though shually know

0:29:46.760 --> 0:29:49.680
<v Speaker 1>the city isn't exactly adhering to COVID zero in the

0:29:49.720 --> 0:29:53.640
<v Speaker 1>same way that mainland China is. We also like to

0:29:53.680 --> 0:29:55.920
<v Speaker 1>say we are the hair to COVID zero, but we

0:29:56.280 --> 0:29:58.840
<v Speaker 1>have a little bit bleeg way, so we also have

0:29:59.000 --> 0:30:02.520
<v Speaker 1>COVID zero lights. How Kong is trying to open up

0:30:02.640 --> 0:30:05.320
<v Speaker 1>because it's not working. The economy really is not working.

0:30:05.640 --> 0:30:08.360
<v Speaker 1>So right now we have three days of hotel quarantine

0:30:08.720 --> 0:30:10.920
<v Speaker 1>plus four more days of Hong Kong, and we are

0:30:10.920 --> 0:30:13.760
<v Speaker 1>trying to do a little bit better. Bloomberg Opinions Shuly

0:30:13.840 --> 0:30:16.840
<v Speaker 1>Wren don't forget listeners. Get in touch via Twitter, I'm

0:30:16.880 --> 0:30:20.200
<v Speaker 1>at Volley Quinn or email v Quinn at Bloomberg dot net.

0:30:20.240 --> 0:30:24.080
<v Speaker 1>Opinions and comments always welcome, and we're also available as

0:30:24.080 --> 0:30:28.760
<v Speaker 1>a podcast on Apple, Spotify, or your favorite podcast platform

0:30:28.800 --> 0:30:31.560
<v Speaker 1>that does it. For this week, we're produced by Eric Mollow.

0:30:31.760 --> 0:30:33.600
<v Speaker 1>Until next time on Bloomberg Opinion