Speaker 1: Welcome back everybody. It's the Betting Pros College Football Show.
Speaker 1: I'm your host, Scott Frogman. Follow me on the Twitter
Speaker 1: at Bogman Sports. I'm joined by Thor Nice from Follow
Speaker 1: him on the Twitter at thor K. You had another fantastic, amazing,
Speaker 1: great week of college football last week with Texas beating
Speaker 1: down Oklahoma forty nine to zering.
Speaker 2: I know that is what everyone was watching.
Speaker 1: No other important games, right, that was the only one
Speaker 1: in my heart anyway, Thor So, I loved college football
Speaker 1: last week even though I was five and five, you know, so,
Speaker 1: just sitting at five hundred on my article coming off
Speaker 1: that eight and two weeks, I knew the other show
Speaker 1: was going to drop eventually. So but I haven't finished
Speaker 1: under five hundred yet this year. Knock on wood, of course.
Speaker 1: But thor, how is your weekend? And are you ready for?
Speaker 1: And I can't believe I'm saying this week seven already here?
Speaker 3: Yeah, weekend was great. Suffered the first loss for Kansas
Speaker 3: of the season, so that was that was kind of tough.
Speaker 3: And my other alma mater, Iowa, was about ugliest game
Speaker 3: I've ever seen, although they've they've had like three other
Speaker 3: games that were exactly the same. Yeah so I but yeah,
Speaker 3: we will soldier through at them. And and my my
Speaker 3: betting weekend was sort of the opposite. I I always
Speaker 3: start slow. I don't know what it is. I you know,
Speaker 3: some some year I'm either gonna decide to stop betting
Speaker 3: in September or I'm gonna I'm gonna have to modulate something.
Speaker 3: But I always, I always pick it up. And last
Speaker 3: week I by far my best week of the year.
Speaker 3: So usually I have one of those vengeance weeks and
Speaker 3: then everything's you know, upward from there. And I hope
Speaker 3: that's what happens this year as well.
Speaker 1: You figure out more stuff as the season goes on, right,
Speaker 1: And I think that's kind of what part of it
Speaker 1: is is, you know, you start to see more stuff,
Speaker 1: the trends become a little more clear, But then you
Speaker 1: also have injuries. So I don't know, I never found
Speaker 1: the best time of year to bet. I just say
Speaker 1: week one, in the final week of the season, regular
Speaker 1: season anyway, those are always the hardest, uh, you know,
Speaker 1: in pretty much any sport because week one it's like
Speaker 1: how much different are these teams?
Speaker 2: And the last week is who cares and who doesn't?
Speaker 3: You know for sure.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so, I mean it's just effort level at that point.
Speaker 1: But we have sitting in the middle here in week seven,
Speaker 1: we have some great games, and let's start out with
Speaker 1: these Thursday and Friday night matchups.
Speaker 2: Here. Throw the first one we have on Thursday.
Speaker 1: UCF is a twenty three and a half point favorite
Speaker 1: at home against Temple. The number is forty six wbu
Speaker 1: versus Baylor is you know, Baylor is a three and
Speaker 1: a half point road favorite in fifty four and a
Speaker 1: half is a total in that one. So for these
Speaker 1: Thursday games, do you have a lean either way?
Speaker 3: Yes? My my lean in UCF Temple, I guess I
Speaker 3: would have would have two of them. My leans would
Speaker 3: be Temple and the under Temple. There. Their offense remains
Speaker 3: awful as always, but their defense has gotten good, and
Speaker 3: not only that, specifically their run defense. Temple's run defense
Speaker 3: is actually legit now. It is legitimately good. And as
Speaker 3: we know, UCF, their best thing is their rushing offense,
Speaker 3: and when you can take that away, they start to
Speaker 3: have real problems when they have to throw, you know,
Speaker 3: like for instance, go back to the Louisville game when
Speaker 3: when John Reeves Plumbly had to throw thirty times the
Speaker 3: UCF offense the wheels came off the thing. Now, in
Speaker 3: this game, I don't think it's going to get that
Speaker 3: bad for UCF where they have to throw Plumbly that
Speaker 3: many times, because Temple almost assuredly will not be able
Speaker 3: to score enough to put the game result in jeopardy.
Speaker 3: But they're you know, Temple is going to be able
Speaker 3: to take away what UCF what they want to do
Speaker 3: to the degree enough, I think that that makes us inflated,
Speaker 3: spread too much, a bridge too far. So I would
Speaker 3: want to take the points with Temple, and for almost
Speaker 3: the exact same reason I want the under. They have
Speaker 3: a pretty solid defense this year as well. They can
Speaker 3: stop the run as well.
Speaker 2: Well.
Speaker 3: Temple's going to have to throw here in order to score.
Speaker 3: We'll see if they can. Jury will be out on that.
Speaker 3: But I, like I said I Temple is going to
Speaker 3: be able to suppress the running of UCF, which might
Speaker 3: incentivize UCF to try to throw more, which is always
Speaker 3: in the favor of the opponent because Jean Reee Plumbly
Speaker 3: can't throw.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and just looking at like PFF grades here thor offensively,
Speaker 1: UCF forty ninth, So you know, above average team, but
Speaker 1: not the UCF that we have seen in their recent history.
Speaker 1: Temple ninth in grade on PFF in terms of their defense.
Speaker 1: So obviously the numbers are adding up to towards what
Speaker 1: you're saying as well. Here according to them, you have
Speaker 1: a good lean in WVU versus Baylor. Is that a
Speaker 1: stay away for you?
Speaker 3: For me, that's a stay away because WVU is in
Speaker 3: general a fade team for me. But Baylor they've been
Speaker 3: disappointing and it's seems like it it's an experiential thing
Speaker 3: at this point. It's such a young team. You know,
Speaker 3: they they're breaking in a new starting quarterback and it's
Speaker 3: what they chose. You know, they didn't want Jerry Bohannan anymore.
Speaker 3: They probably made the right decision if you watch Jerry
Speaker 3: Buhannon in at South Florida, but shape and he hasn't
Speaker 3: had the start that you would have hoped. And then
Speaker 3: at a lot of these other positions they're just as young.
Speaker 3: And so I do think Baylor will eventually get there,
Speaker 3: but it's been kind of slow going stop start, you
Speaker 3: know that that sort of a thing. This is a
Speaker 3: very hard environment for them for Baylor to be walking
Speaker 3: into it. It's a tough spot Thursday night heading into Huntington.
Speaker 3: I definitely like Baylor more as a team, but with
Speaker 3: the spot that it's in and the homefield advantage that
Speaker 3: West Virginia has. To me, the line is fair. Like
Speaker 3: my Justice line on this game is Baylor minus two
Speaker 3: point three. The live line is Baylor minus two point five.
Speaker 3: I just there's nothing for me there to stay away.
Speaker 2: Yeah, interesting game there, but you know, maybe a watch
Speaker 2: and don't bet on that one on Friday. I know
Speaker 2: there's a game here that we both like.
Speaker 1: We have SMU minus twelve and a half versus Navy
Speaker 1: fifty seven total on that, but you and I both
Speaker 1: like FIU or excuse me, UTSA at FIU. This game
Speaker 1: UTSA is thirty three point favorites, thirty three and a
Speaker 1: half in some places. I think it's going to open up.
Speaker 1: Sixty three and a half is the total here. I
Speaker 1: wrote up in my artcle I love UTSA. I'll lay
Speaker 1: the points. It's fun to pick on bad teams when
Speaker 1: you're betting, and FIU is a horrid team now, and
Speaker 1: I think UTSA is sixth in pace of play too.
Speaker 1: They are going to pace this game. They're going to
Speaker 1: be offense on offense a lot. And we've already seen
Speaker 1: FIU give up a lopsided game at home this year
Speaker 1: against Western Kentucky, and UTSA just beat Western Kentucky. So
Speaker 1: of course, you know the transitive properties that never fail
Speaker 1: us ever in college football. Right, UTSA is already better
Speaker 1: than Western Kentucky. They should beat FIU, buy more than
Speaker 1: seventy three nothing, of course, that never works. I fi
Speaker 1: use a different team now than they were a couple
Speaker 1: of weeks ago, maybe better at quarterback. They did have
Speaker 1: a win against New Mexico or actually New Mexico State
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago as well, so you know,
Speaker 1: I fi used better, but they're still very bad. So
Speaker 1: you know this game is on Friday. It's one less
Speaker 1: ai to prep for both these teams, which I think
Speaker 1: would also favor UTSA here or so, I mean, I
Speaker 1: am all aboard the Roadrunners bandwagon, So I will lay
Speaker 1: all them points and take UTSA.
Speaker 2: What do you think about either one of these games?
Speaker 2: But I know you like Utsao?
Speaker 3: Yeah in that one. You The books almost can't make
Speaker 3: UTSA a high enough favorite.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they can't make it ugly enough for me to
Speaker 1: not want to take it, right.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the lineup it was like I think
Speaker 3: it was like twenty seven and a half and it
Speaker 3: just extreme quickly got fed up, like almost by a touchdown,
Speaker 3: right like. And I think it's it is even still climbing,
Speaker 3: and that is perfectly justifiable here, uh FIU. They're not
Speaker 3: only you know, objectively horrid team. If you put them
Speaker 3: in the FCS, I don't think they would finish over
Speaker 3: five hundred. They barely beat Bryant in the opener. Uh
Speaker 3: they beat him by one point? Was that even an
Speaker 3: overtime too?
Speaker 1: Yeah, thirty seven, but I don't think it was over
Speaker 1: time or did they go for two at the end.
Speaker 2: It was it was something, It was something.
Speaker 1: I mean, Bryan isn't good either in the FCS level,
Speaker 1: they're like four.
Speaker 3: Yeah, So they're not in.
Speaker 2: The team anywhere, And.
Speaker 3: Like you said, there won't uh fi use only the
Speaker 3: other wins again to New Mexico State, who is one
Speaker 3: of the five worst teams in the nation. And last
Speaker 3: week FIU hosted Yukon and lost by twenty one points,
Speaker 3: So I fi us really bad, you know, And another
Speaker 3: thing to consider here, and this one is really really important.
Speaker 3: F I you, they're only the only player on that
Speaker 3: roster that I consider legitimate. It's their outside receiver Chambers.
Speaker 3: That kid is considered questionable for this game. I don't
Speaker 3: think he's going to play. Uh, Tyree's Chambers probably a
Speaker 3: guy that's going to get a long look from the NFL.
Speaker 3: I don't know if there is one other singular player
Speaker 3: on that roster that you can say that about. If
Speaker 3: Tyree's Chambers is not playing in that game, I don't
Speaker 3: even know what. It's not just that they won't be
Speaker 3: able to move the ball. I don't know what they
Speaker 3: do with the ball. It's it's it's one of the
Speaker 3: like he is the identity of the offense. It's it's
Speaker 3: the one, the one guy that they trot out that
Speaker 3: scares people. So, I mean, it's not just that it's
Speaker 3: a mismatch, and it's not just that the recent history
Speaker 3: would suggest UTSA. It's also that FIU has one gun
Speaker 3: to bring to this fight, and that gun is is
Speaker 3: not going to be discharging. Really unfortunate. And and and
Speaker 3: like you said, Bagman, the teams that FIU has played,
Speaker 3: it's you know, the only one where they you know,
Speaker 3: they won the game against New Mexico and then New
Speaker 3: Mexico State and then Bryant, but they got annihilated by
Speaker 3: Texas State by almost thirty points. Texas State is also
Speaker 3: one of the worst teams in the ses. And then,
Speaker 3: like I said, they got annihilated by Yukon. The only
Speaker 3: time that FIU has played a team that is above
Speaker 3: eighty ninth sp plus was Western Kentucky and Western Kentucky's
Speaker 3: no great shakes. You know this year their number seventieth
Speaker 3: sp plus, which isn't even average, right, not even the
Speaker 3: median watermark. They lost that game seventy three to nothing.
Speaker 3: What can Western Kentucky do really well? They passed to
Speaker 3: the ball this utsa team. What fell off about it
Speaker 3: was sincere McCormick left, so it was the run game,
Speaker 3: and then their defense got worse. But the passing game
Speaker 3: has gotten way better because everybody came back, right like
Speaker 3: Frank Harris came back and it's better. And then the
Speaker 3: three receivers came back, and all of those guys are
Speaker 3: going to the NFL and they're all really really good.
Speaker 3: So they go three wide and they could dominate all
Speaker 3: of it against FYU. They are going to do whatever
Speaker 3: they want. This one is lay the points or stay away.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I completely agree with you on that game. That's
Speaker 2: an ugly one.
Speaker 1: Let's go over and talk about the games with ninety
Speaker 1: five percent or more of a cash laid on one side.
Speaker 2: We have six of them this week, and they are
Speaker 2: all spread no totals, which is a little surprising, just
Speaker 2: a strange happenstance. Here.
Speaker 1: We start with Toledo minus nine versus Kent State. This
Speaker 1: is a ninety nine percent cash and ninety seven percent
Speaker 1: tickets store. So everyone right now, you know we're recording
Speaker 1: this on a Wednesday afternoon. Everyone is on Toledo and
Speaker 1: laying the nine. So obviously this number is probably going
Speaker 1: to get bigger by the time you're listening to this.
Speaker 1: But I don't know if that matters. Does it matter
Speaker 1: thor are you just all over Toledo here?
Speaker 3: I like Toledo too, Yeah, so I guess I guess
Speaker 3: I'll be a square as well. I will say last week,
Speaker 3: and for people to, you know, listen to all of
Speaker 3: our shows, they'll they'll know that I'm telling the truth here.
Speaker 3: I think I was talking about this with Thomas for sure,
Speaker 3: and maybe bogming with you as well, maybe on last
Speaker 3: week's show. The Sharps were on Kent State last week too,
Speaker 3: to the degree where I was like, like, like, usually
Speaker 3: I can at least explain it to myself. Last week
Speaker 3: was really weird when when Kent State was they were
Speaker 3: playing Miami, they traveled to Miami of Ohio. It got
Speaker 3: so skewed from what my number was that I was
Speaker 3: starting to look into the Miami of Ohio roster, like
Speaker 3: did they have a bunch of injuries that I'm not
Speaker 3: aware of? Or is something going on here? And I
Speaker 3: just couldn't. I could not figure out what was going on.
Speaker 3: But my numbers were screaming at me that Miami of
Speaker 3: Ohio is gonna win the game outright, and the Sharps
Speaker 3: pushed that game all the way to Kent State minus
Speaker 3: six on the road. Well, Miami of Ohio won the
Speaker 3: game outright. In this one, my numbers like Toledo by
Speaker 3: double digits. They love Toledo in this game. It looks
Speaker 3: like the sharp's on again. Like Ken State, I definitely
Speaker 3: leaned Toledo in that one for sure.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's gonna be That's gonna be a fun one.
Speaker 2: But I'm with you.
Speaker 1: I'm on Toledo here WKU is laying eight against on
Speaker 1: the road against Middle Tennessee. But this is another one
Speaker 1: where it's not just the cash, it's the tickets to both.
Speaker 1: On the side of WK you very favorably. What do
Speaker 1: you think about this game? I mean Middle Tennessee is
Speaker 1: they've shown up. They obviously beat Miami. We talked about
Speaker 1: this a little bit in our stages that we do
Speaker 1: before the store feels a little fluky.
Speaker 2: Hey, look they won the game.
Speaker 1: Congratulations, But I just don't know if that's very believable.
Speaker 1: And you made the point many times about, hey, look,
Speaker 1: this was a terrible match for Miami, and this is
Speaker 1: you know, if you're going down, you're looking for one
Speaker 1: team to match up against Miami, it was probably Middle
Speaker 1: Tennessee and it ended up working for him.
Speaker 2: So I don't know. I just I trust wk you more.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's right. Yeah, And Middle Tennessee we talked about
Speaker 3: this on on the stages that we did, which you
Speaker 3: do every Wednesday night. People want to tune in and
Speaker 3: ask us a question live. Middle Tennessee is a very
Speaker 3: matchup specific team, right. They recruit small, shifty players because
Speaker 3: they don't have access to like the elite recruits. They
Speaker 3: just look for these system fits and they run. They
Speaker 3: run the air rate. So they have this neot alarmed
Speaker 3: quarterback who can get the ball out. You hope you
Speaker 3: can hit the receivers on the hands and then that
Speaker 3: they can make a guy or to mess and you
Speaker 3: can maybe manufacture explosive plays in that way. Teams that
Speaker 3: don't tackle very well in the secondary and don't cover
Speaker 3: very well that they see separation are the teams that
Speaker 3: struggle with Middle Tennessee UH team like Miami for instance,
Speaker 3: and and and then on what you want to do
Speaker 3: against Middle Tennessee Tennessee, you know, and then and then
Speaker 3: on the you know, defensive side or whatever, they struggle
Speaker 3: as well. So with with Western Kentucky that the magic
Speaker 3: going the other way. Western Kentucky is equip to stop
Speaker 3: the passing game in a way that Middle Tennessee's defense
Speaker 3: is not. You can pick on Middle Tennessee secondary, it's
Speaker 3: not very good. Just that Tyler Van Dyke couldn't do
Speaker 3: it in that game. Apparently North Carolina secondary is better
Speaker 3: than than Middle Tennessee's. Western Kentucky secondary. Western Kentucky secondary
Speaker 3: happens to be good. Western Kentucky run defense not quite
Speaker 3: as good, but their secondary is good and it's deep, right,
Speaker 3: so they can they can actually contend with the spread offense,
Speaker 3: as you know, going and press the formation where Middle
Speaker 3: Tennessee runs out of bodies. So both teams have very
Speaker 3: very similar offensive strategies, and on the surface, they might
Speaker 3: look similar, and it might look like sort of similar
Speaker 3: resumes and stuff like that. So you might be surprised
Speaker 3: that the road team is laying eight here. But I
Speaker 3: actually think the Western Kentucky matches up way better, mostly
Speaker 3: because of the viability of their secondary in this game.
Speaker 3: If they're able to keep that Middle Tennessee passing game
Speaker 3: off schedule, I know that they're going to be able
Speaker 3: to take away the explosive plays Western Kentucky through the
Speaker 3: year the Middle Tenancy wants to do. I think that
Speaker 3: they can really hinder what Middle tennanc He wants to
Speaker 3: do on offense. I would lean Western Kentucky in that game.
Speaker 2: I'm with you on that one.
Speaker 1: The next there's four here, I think I have a
Speaker 1: good lean on maybe one of them. But Wisconsin is
Speaker 1: a seven and a half point favorite. At Michigan State,
Speaker 1: the cash is well on their side. Cash also on
Speaker 1: San Jose State playing eight and a half, Yukon getting
Speaker 1: nine and a half at Ball State is getting a
Speaker 1: lot of love. And then Southern missling four and a
Speaker 1: half at Arkansas State. So these last four here, Thorn,
Speaker 1: do you have a good lean on Wisconsin, San Jose State,
Speaker 1: Yukon or Southern Miss.
Speaker 3: The the Wisconsin Michigan State game, I definitely investigated. Wisconsin
Speaker 3: was one of my hits last weekend. I was expecting,
Speaker 3: you know, the dead cap bounce or whatever off of
Speaker 3: the Paul Chris firing, and we got that. This week.
Speaker 3: I was, you know, sort of provisionally hoping that I
Speaker 3: could talk mylf in the Michigan State because at some
Speaker 3: point you expect Michigan State to show just a modicum
Speaker 3: of pride and pick it's up up off the mat.
Speaker 3: And this would be a really good spot to do it,
Speaker 3: because you get this team coming off of what what
Speaker 3: for that you know, it wasn't a good opponent that
Speaker 3: Wisconsin beat last week, but it wasn't an exhilarating win. Nonetheless,
Speaker 3: coming off the week that they had just had, you
Speaker 3: win in Leonard's debut, and now you go on the
Speaker 3: road in what's sort of a sleepy spot because with
Speaker 3: Wiscott Wisconsin certainly, like the rest of us have seen,
Speaker 3: everybody just wiped the floor with Michigan State, any you know,
Speaker 3: decent opponent this year. And so you know, it's like, well, O,
Speaker 3: can I can I justify you know, a bet on
Speaker 3: the idea that Michigan State could ambush them here? It's
Speaker 3: hard to though, It's it's it's it's just really hard.
Speaker 3: Michigan State there. Their worst thing that this was sort
Speaker 3: of along my lines of thinking of trying to talk
Speaker 3: myself into Michigan State is Michigan State they have this
Speaker 3: absolutely abysmal pass defense. They're their run defense is a
Speaker 3: little bit better, and so you're like, well, you know,
Speaker 3: I mean, like you know, bram Mertz, every time he
Speaker 3: plays a decent pass defense, he stinks, so, like you know,
Speaker 3: and and maybe they can they can somewhat hold down
Speaker 3: Wisconsin's run game, but then like you're starting to stretch
Speaker 3: it already. And I also, I'm not going to back
Speaker 3: Wisconsin in two straight weeks on the road, you know
Speaker 3: what I mean, Like, you know, it's to cover big numbers.
Speaker 3: So for me, that that one's a stay away. The
Speaker 3: next one. San Jose stayed against Fresno State. I forbid
Speaker 3: anyone from listening to this show from betting on Fresno
Speaker 3: until Jayner comes back. That team, that program is a
Speaker 3: mess right now. And it's it's not just Hayter that's hurt.
Speaker 3: They have several key contributors that are hurt. But it
Speaker 3: was like the second that Hainer, you know that he was,
Speaker 3: he was out, like it's they removed.
Speaker 2: All mad stayed also four and one against the spread
Speaker 2: this year.
Speaker 3: Great, Yeah, they've been great. I last week I put
Speaker 3: the thing out about they were San Jose was plus
Speaker 3: six hundred at some books plus six fifty at others
Speaker 3: to win the Mountain West and all they had to
Speaker 3: do was beat UNLV and they basically didn't play any
Speaker 3: tough opponents the rest of the year. They blew out UNLV.
Speaker 3: Now they get fresm of State without Hayner, and then
Speaker 3: their next several opponents all absolutely stink. So San Jose
Speaker 3: State is going to be waltzing at least into the
Speaker 3: conference title game where they're either going to play at
Speaker 3: down Boise State or a down air Force. I shouldn't
Speaker 3: be patting my back about that because it's not relevant
Speaker 3: to anyone else. The odds are different. So for for
Speaker 3: forgive me for the naval gazing right there, but that
Speaker 3: one is San Jose state or pass and you probably
Speaker 3: want before you make a decision, and you probably want
Speaker 3: to monitor just one billion percent confirmed that hater is out.
Speaker 3: It's it's looking like that, but you know whatever you're
Speaker 3: listening to this, just confirm that and then some of
Speaker 3: the other fresm of state. I just check on their status,
Speaker 3: but I either way, I you know, again, until Hayter
Speaker 3: comes back, not betting on them. The you on ball state, Uh,
Speaker 3: that's one that I'm probably not gonna end up touching.
Speaker 3: Yukon has been able to take advantage of some circumstances
Speaker 3: and getting to I think they're three and four now,
Speaker 3: and circumstances might get them to five and seven where
Speaker 3: they really just need to upset one team to become
Speaker 3: ball eligible, which is hilarious. This could be the game,
Speaker 3: like if I mean if they do, because they're gonna
Speaker 3: play two other games this year where I believe that
Speaker 3: they're gonna be either favored or else. It's going to
Speaker 3: be very very close. But I'm not sure that this
Speaker 3: is the matchup for them. One thing to keep in
Speaker 3: mind about Yukon, even though they've caught it right two
Speaker 3: weeks speaking of Presno State, two weeks ago, they caught
Speaker 3: Presno State the first game that hater was out, So
Speaker 3: I mean, congratulations. At that point, you're basically playing an
Speaker 3: FTS team. And then last week they was was at
Speaker 3: FIU that they that they, yeah, our our our favorite
Speaker 3: FIU team. Ball State is certainly a better team and
Speaker 3: now Yukon has to go on the road. The other
Speaker 3: thing I'll say about Yukon is they have a whole
Speaker 3: bunch of injuries themselves, you know they. I mean, they
Speaker 3: start off the season by losing their own starting quarterback
Speaker 3: and then they lost a whole bunch of other guys.
Speaker 3: The running back room is particularly bad. They a couple
Speaker 3: of weeks ago it was so bad with injuries. Jim
Speaker 3: Mora actually was batting around the idea of shifting a
Speaker 3: three hundred pounder to running back. This kid who had
Speaker 3: played running back.
Speaker 1: I remember his bolts were like, ay, he looks he
Speaker 1: looks nimble out there. Yeah he can break a tackle
Speaker 1: like he was legit thinking about it. I like, I
Speaker 1: think a little of that was tongue in cheek, but
Speaker 1: I don't he gets that bad who I don't know
Speaker 1: if it was.
Speaker 3: I don't know if it was because they had like
Speaker 3: four running back injuries at the time. And I'll tell
Speaker 3: you what, bug maan, I will never ever root for
Speaker 3: a kid to get injured. But knowing that Yukon was
Speaker 3: probably one running back injury away from shifting to three
Speaker 3: hundred pounder back there, the way that I'll put it is,
Speaker 3: I wouldn't have been sad if that had happened.
Speaker 2: Like if he just he get cramps, you know, he
Speaker 2: cramps up or something, you know, not the major. Let's
Speaker 2: just be the big guy. That's very short.
Speaker 3: Just one game. I wanted to see that that three
Speaker 3: hundred pounder rumbled for Jimmy Mora junior. But but that game,
Speaker 3: for me, I don't think I can back you con
Speaker 3: in that spot. You know, I mean, coming off that
Speaker 3: the two wins, they're clearly playing. I mean, I'm not
Speaker 3: gonna say a pup their head because they the opponents
Speaker 3: were what they were, but the injuries, et cetera. So
Speaker 3: for me, that that that's a stayaway. And then the
Speaker 3: the Southern miss Arkansas State game for me the angle
Speaker 3: on that. It's not the side, it's the under and
Speaker 3: the reason for that is both the defenses are extremely
Speaker 3: active in terms of piling up TfL sacks, uh, tip balls, interceptions,
Speaker 3: that that sort of stuff, and the offensive lines are
Speaker 3: not very cud Southern miss you know, and a part
Speaker 3: of it too playing into it. Southern miss have been
Speaker 3: playing this this freshman quarterback because they had an injury
Speaker 3: before and then the coaching staff early on, uh will
Speaker 3: it key or whatever the Zach WILLI WILLI key or
Speaker 3: something like that. They they essentially just decided to hitch
Speaker 3: their wagons to him regardless because I think they view
Speaker 3: him as the future of the So they're gonna take
Speaker 3: their lumps with that kid however it goes this year.
Speaker 3: But like you have him playing behind what's not a
Speaker 3: very good offensive line. But the Southern Missus offense hasn't
Speaker 3: been that good this year, but Southern Missus defense is
Speaker 3: and it's a havoc creating defense. It gets after the quarterback.
Speaker 3: Like I said, it's ball hawking as well.
Speaker 2: They have mass Tyler van Dyke, you know another team. Yeah,
Speaker 2: they didn't.
Speaker 1: They didn't put up a great fight in that game.
Speaker 1: They couldn't score on offense, as you mentioned, but they
Speaker 1: made it interesting for a half.
Speaker 2: For sure.
Speaker 3: There's a lot of sports betters out there that would
Speaker 3: love to harass Tyler Vandyke. Yes the burn tickets. Although
Speaker 3: I can't criticize mister Van Dyke because I actually needed
Speaker 3: to start him in my fifty team college fantasy football
Speaker 3: league last week because because I have Bryce Young and
Speaker 3: he got injured and then I didn't know, you know,
Speaker 3: like leading up to kick off, Nick Saban was doing
Speaker 3: all the things, and Van Dyke is my only other quarterback,
Speaker 3: so I rolled the dice and wasn't really rolling the
Speaker 3: dice because he gets to play North Carolina, who gives
Speaker 3: up a billion yards to everybody. But anyway, shout out
Speaker 3: to Tyler Vandyke for me the Southern miss Arkansas, I
Speaker 3: say I'm going under for that reason. Neither of those
Speaker 3: teams can keep opposing defensive lines out of the backfield,
Speaker 3: So I mean there's gonna be a ridiculous amount of sacks,
Speaker 3: a ridiculous amount of TfL both the offense. They're gonna
Speaker 3: have a really hard time getting going. They're they're gonna
Speaker 3: find themselves in a lot of like second and sixteens
Speaker 3: and stuff like that. The under has a really good
Speaker 3: shot of getting there unless we have multiple pick sixes
Speaker 3: and or fumble returns, which you know, I'm just gonna
Speaker 3: knock on wood right now, because with the way that
Speaker 3: the offensive play against the way that the defense played,
Speaker 3: you know, it certainly is a possibility. But barring stuff
Speaker 3: like that, I would I would like the under that
Speaker 3: and my system does too as well.
Speaker 1: I should say, all right, let's go to the big
Speaker 1: five top games of the week. And this was kind
Speaker 1: of hard to narrow down, but top two are extremely obvious.
Speaker 1: Probably the top three are extremely obvious. But number three Alabama,
Speaker 1: who did slip are? They are hosting number six Tennessee.
Speaker 1: The line here is seven and a half for Alabama,
Speaker 1: the total is sixty five. And look, obviously, as you
Speaker 1: mentioned before, the health of Bryce Young is at the
Speaker 1: forefront of where we're going in this game. So how
Speaker 1: do you see this playing with or without Bryce Young?
Speaker 3: Yeah, Bray's young thing is enormous. I mean, it's it's
Speaker 3: for multiple It's not just like Brayce Young in a
Speaker 3: vacuum worth probably about ten to eleven points on the spread,
Speaker 3: just in and of itself, and in my line on
Speaker 3: this game, if it's a fully healthy Bryce fully healthy,
Speaker 3: If fully healthy Bryce Young was playing, I would have
Speaker 3: Alabama minus eight and a half. But even if Bryce
Speaker 3: Young is playing, he's not going to be fully healthy
Speaker 3: and he definitely might not play. And if he doesn't play,
Speaker 3: and if Tennessee gets back Cedar Tillman, which is the
Speaker 3: way that it's looking now, Tennessee's wide receiver number one,
Speaker 3: if Young's not playing but Tillman is, I would I
Speaker 3: would actually favor Tennessee in this game. And the Bugs
Speaker 3: aren't going to but me personally, I would favor them.
Speaker 3: But we don't again, we don't at this time. We're
Speaker 3: recording on Wednesday night. We don't know Bryce young status
Speaker 3: quite yet. But if if Bryce Young doesn't play, it
Speaker 3: not only is you're losing the in a vacuum qualitative value,
Speaker 3: it also enormously plays into the hands of Tennessee's defense
Speaker 3: because mill Row he's a row passer, but he's a really,
Speaker 3: really good runner. The Tennessee defense is awesome defending the run.
Speaker 3: Where it really struggles is against the pass. And so
Speaker 3: if I mean, if Saban could get Bryce Young out
Speaker 3: there by hooker by Kruck. I think he's going to
Speaker 3: try to do it, but we'll see if that's even possible.
Speaker 3: Because Bryce Young has is a straight AC joint of
Speaker 3: his throwing shoulder. Quinn Yours missed what was it three
Speaker 3: weeks with the AC sprain of his non throwing shoulder
Speaker 3: right right, Like, I mean, people can be optimistic, and
Speaker 3: certainly Alabama's gonna tell us like, oh yeah, Bryce, you know,
Speaker 3: like sure seven days after he got the injury, you know,
Speaker 3: leading up to the Alabama game on on the PA system, Oh,
Speaker 3: Bryce Young starting for us, And I'm like, okay, like
Speaker 3: that would be a medical miracle. But okay, this game,
Speaker 3: we'll see, you know. I mean, there are certainly shots
Speaker 3: that you can give, you know that uh Drew Brees
Speaker 3: was talking about that, that you can try to try
Speaker 3: to help the kid get out there. But I mean,
Speaker 3: especially with it being the throwing show, that this is
Speaker 3: very early on the on the timeline, and so if
Speaker 3: you you know, even having a depreciated Bryce Young, you
Speaker 3: are less viable in attacking Tennessee's greatest weakness. The other thing,
Speaker 3: of course, Alabama's offensive line is down. Alabama's receiving course
Speaker 3: way down So if you have like a you know,
Speaker 3: eighty three percent Bryce young, are they gonna be able
Speaker 3: to take advantage of Tennessee's weakness to the you know,
Speaker 3: the other otherwise degree that you would. We'll see about that.
Speaker 3: And then Tennessee's offense, I know they're gonna move the
Speaker 3: ball in Alabama's defense. They're gonna move the ball on
Speaker 3: any defense they play all season, I mean, regardless of
Speaker 3: whether Tillman plays or not. But if Tilman comes back,
Speaker 3: they're gonna be even nastier. Tennessee is top ten in
Speaker 3: the nation in both rushing rushing success rate and passing
Speaker 3: success rate. I also happen to think that they are
Speaker 3: the players are being called by the best play coller
Speaker 3: in college football, Josh Hipel, a guy who was criminally
Speaker 3: underrated his entire career now is finally starting to get
Speaker 3: his due respect. I don't think he's gonna quite get
Speaker 3: it in lesser until he you know, wins this game
Speaker 3: and you know, goes on and has a great season
Speaker 3: this year. Might finally start to get his due, but
Speaker 3: it's been just criminally underrated throughout his career. They can
Speaker 3: be multiple and they're always calling the correct play, so
Speaker 3: it's like it's like a pitcher who has like four
Speaker 3: elite pitches and has awesome control and the sequencing of
Speaker 3: his pitches are impeccable, so you have absolutely no idea
Speaker 3: what's coming. It's always filthy and he can put it
Speaker 3: wherever he wants. That's Tennessee's offense. And now they're getting
Speaker 3: their wide receiver one back. And meanwhile, by the way
Speaker 3: Tillman missed the last couple of weeks, they won those games,
Speaker 3: which is great, but also it gave the opportunity for
Speaker 3: Bru McCoy, former five star balllet, number one receiver in
Speaker 3: his class, to step up into the wide receiver one role.
Speaker 3: And he finally started to show the brow McCoy that
Speaker 3: we were promised by the recruiting analysts. Both games he
Speaker 3: went over one hundred yards, looked like a beast. If
Speaker 3: we get that Broo McCoy next to one hundred percent
Speaker 3: set or Tillman and the hen and Hooker that now
Speaker 3: I mean like people high respect greatly in this, Like
Speaker 3: Jordan Reed, we're talking about Hennon Hooker as you know,
Speaker 3: a Day two type pick or a top fifty sixty
Speaker 3: type pick kind of guy. You get all that stuff
Speaker 3: going again, very very scary for Tennessee. So you know,
Speaker 3: as far as where this spread is, where we're talking
Speaker 3: right now, this moment in time, there's the we don't
Speaker 3: know yet exactly what the status is with Young and
Speaker 3: with Tillman, but I'm taking the seven and a half
Speaker 3: points for sure. If Bryce Young plays, I still like
Speaker 3: Tennessee plus the seven and a half. I'll be way
Speaker 3: less confident because I don't know exactly the percentage that
Speaker 3: Bryce Young will be. But if Bryce Young doesn't play,
Speaker 3: it is this is a smash of This is a
Speaker 3: smash Tennessee spot because Alabama categorically will not be able
Speaker 3: to take advantage of Tennessee's defensive weakness, and they will
Speaker 3: be They will only have the recourse to go into
Speaker 3: Tennessee defensive strength, which you're gonna be a problem for him.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's gonna be a fun one, that's
Speaker 1: for sure. But Alabama does you know I keep saying
Speaker 1: this and people take it the wrong way. This is
Speaker 1: the most beatable Bama team that we've seen for a while.
Speaker 1: Doesn't mean that they're actually gonna get beat but they
Speaker 1: are Beata bull I think the last couple of years
Speaker 1: they just were not in that category of a very
Speaker 1: beatable team, unless you know, Georgia could beat them. You know,
Speaker 1: maybe a top two team could have beat them. But
Speaker 1: they're gettable this year, more gettable than they have been
Speaker 1: in the past. Number five Michigan is six and a
Speaker 1: half point home favorites against number ten Penn State. Fifty
Speaker 1: one and a half is the over in this game,
Speaker 1: thor you have a good lean one way or the
Speaker 1: other on Michigan Penn State.
Speaker 3: I lean Michigan. There's a lot of smart people out
Speaker 3: there that are very clearly leaning Penn State because that
Speaker 3: line was sticking right at seven and then it now
Speaker 3: it's toggled down apparently to six and a half. That's fine.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna make Penn State prove me wrong, and if
Speaker 3: they do, great, the books can have my money. But
Speaker 3: I haven't seen much from Penn State to like, you know,
Speaker 3: crazy change my opinion from recent years that the running
Speaker 3: game is, you know, marginally better, The evansive line is
Speaker 3: marginally better, but like the whole thing of it, like,
Speaker 3: it's not like this team is like raised several levels.
Speaker 3: To me, it still feels like it's in the same filum.
Speaker 3: You still have the quarterback that strugg I mean not
Speaker 3: that he struggles to throw down field. He categorically can't.
Speaker 3: He has a wet noodle alarm that this scrambler and
Speaker 3: Sean Clifford and they don't have dots in anymore. You
Speaker 3: don't have like the singular receiving talent anymore. So the
Speaker 3: receipt the running game has gotten a bit better. I
Speaker 3: think the passing game is a little bit down. You're
Speaker 3: still sort of around the same spot. I don't think
Speaker 3: the Michigan's defense is going to have any problem with that.
Speaker 3: And meanwhile, the Michigan I'm more like, if I'm an opponent,
Speaker 3: I'm more afraid of that offense now than even last
Speaker 3: year when you know, when they were a really really
Speaker 3: good team, guys. Whereas that team at Cad macnamara that
Speaker 3: who you know, you know, shouldn't have been starting for
Speaker 3: a playoff contender. Now you have a legitimate quarterback that
Speaker 3: scares people on JJ McCarthy. You can hurt people through
Speaker 3: the air end with his legs. I you know, again
Speaker 3: dominant defense for Michigan, that the offense can do more things.
Speaker 3: Playcorms running really well. I'll lay the seven points here
Speaker 3: and if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. You know. It's this.
Speaker 3: The hard thing about the handycap is we haven't seen
Speaker 3: either of these two teams really play anyone yet. So
Speaker 3: that's the part of it where you sort of have
Speaker 3: to step out into the unknown and you have to
Speaker 3: trust your conviction of what you've seen against these teams
Speaker 3: playing like lesser opponents. But my conviction would be on
Speaker 3: the Michigan side.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you on that too. I want to
Speaker 1: take Michigan. And you know I told you this before.
Speaker 1: I think I end up with another seven and three
Speaker 1: week of Mike Cart. You know, Mike Cart obviously went
Speaker 1: down with a seizure early in that game from Michigan,
Speaker 1: and you could just see the kids reacting towards it,
Speaker 1: and they were upset. They got they started rolling. The
Speaker 1: second half I think of that game is two minutes longer.
Speaker 1: I probably get not only the Michigan cover, but the
Speaker 1: other the over, but also on the old Miss side.
Speaker 1: We were talking about this in the stream too. I
Speaker 1: barely got just because Ole Miss wanted to go for
Speaker 1: more points at the end. The only reason I got
Speaker 1: them laying the points last week too. So hey, look,
Speaker 1: you know you get these by inches, you don't get
Speaker 1: them by inches.
Speaker 2: It's just the way it is when you're gambling. That's all.
Speaker 3: Well, Bogman, you know what they said in the Mighty
Speaker 3: Ducks if it had gone half an inch the other way,
Speaker 3: Charlie right, question.
Speaker 2: Never even thought of it that way, right? I remember
Speaker 2: that line number thirteen TCU four point favorites at home
Speaker 2: against number eight Okay State. This total is sixty eight
Speaker 2: and a half.
Speaker 1: We obviously saw TCU's offense come alive last week against Kansas.
Speaker 1: Oklahoma State has been great all year with Spencer Sanders.
Speaker 1: Do you have a good lean one way or the
Speaker 1: other in this Big twelve matchup? Yeah?
Speaker 3: I actually did. I leaned TCU. I actually did not
Speaker 3: know that that number it tackled up to four. When
Speaker 3: I was looking into this earlier in the afternoon, it
Speaker 3: was three and a half. I don't disagree with the
Speaker 3: line movement. I think TCU matches up pretty.
Speaker 2: Much betting pros. Just so you know, it's four everywhere now.
Speaker 1: Like, Yeah, I don't disagree with that half was the
Speaker 1: only you can only get that one from Michigan minus
Speaker 1: six and a half on fan duel.
Speaker 2: But it looks like four everywhere here according to betting pros.
Speaker 3: Okay, yeah, yeah, the TCU, I think, well, I just
Speaker 3: think they're the objectively better team. And some of Oklahoma
Speaker 3: State's stuff this year they've done is a little bit
Speaker 3: fools goldie to me, whereas everything that TCU is doing
Speaker 3: to me feels legitimate. And I think that Oklahoma State
Speaker 3: is going to have problems defending some of this stuff
Speaker 3: that TCU does. TCU can be multiple in a way
Speaker 3: that Oklahoma State can't. And Oklahoma State's defense that's the
Speaker 3: problem for them this year is last year they had
Speaker 3: the dominant defense. The defense is falling way off because
Speaker 3: they lost all those guys to the NFL. They lost
Speaker 3: Gym Knowles, et cetera, and and and to their credit
Speaker 3: to this point, and they've defied my expectations. I didn't
Speaker 3: think Oklahoma State would be nearly as good. So so
Speaker 3: you know that's on you know, me a callup on
Speaker 3: that one to the Oklahoma State folks. The offense has
Speaker 3: gotten a little bit there, it's gotten better to to
Speaker 3: sort of mitigate some of that, but the the defense
Speaker 3: is down and it gives up explosive plays. I think
Speaker 3: TCU is going to generate several of those in this game.
Speaker 3: And I think if if that is indeed the case,
Speaker 3: it's going to be very very hard for an offense
Speaker 3: that where the majority of the usage is being centered
Speaker 3: on Spencer Sanders. For an offense like that to keep
Speaker 3: pace right like in a game that becomes a shootout.
Speaker 3: I think that is the nightmare scenario for Mike Gundy
Speaker 3: and Oklahoma State. You have to have Spencer Sanders put
Speaker 3: on the heroka. That's when Spencer Sanders turns into the
Speaker 3: what did I call him? And a pa like the fembot.
Speaker 3: Spencer Sanders were like, it's that starts going and you know,
Speaker 3: like the smoke starts coming out of his ear and
Speaker 3: that's where you see the three interception game when Oklahoma
Speaker 3: State's ahead, and you know it's it's you know, all
Speaker 3: within their their volition and they can control things. That's
Speaker 3: when he plays well. But yeah, when when the looks
Speaker 3: get different, and when when you got to press him
Speaker 3: and you're pushing the tempo and yadaya, you're trying to
Speaker 3: come from behind, you got to push the ball down
Speaker 3: field more, you become more predictable. That's when he starts
Speaker 3: making the mistakes. So this is a game that could
Speaker 3: get away from them, and if it does, it wouldn't
Speaker 3: surprise me. If TCU and wins by double.
Speaker 1: Digits, Yeah, gonna be a fun game there, for sure.
Speaker 1: Those always those always seem to be fun, those big
Speaker 1: big twelve matchups. Number twenty UTAH three and half point
Speaker 1: home favorites against number seven USC sixty five is a
Speaker 1: total here?
Speaker 2: What way you leaning in this game? Thor?
Speaker 1: This line surprised me a little bit. I know Jordan
Speaker 1: Addison is a little bit nicked up, isn't he? So
Speaker 1: how do we feel in this game?
Speaker 3: Yeah, well we'll have to get a definitive picture on
Speaker 3: out of since status. But yeah, he got knocked out
Speaker 3: of the last game and he's obviously enormous to USC.
Speaker 3: I think another big part of this this handicap is
Speaker 3: USC's defense has way exceeded everybody's expectations, in large part
Speaker 3: because they've been able to generate a ridiculous amount of
Speaker 3: turnovers almost by any any measure, and unsustainable amount of turnovers.
Speaker 3: You were wondering when they played a team that could
Speaker 3: take care of the ball and could be efficient on offense,
Speaker 3: you know what would happen to that defense because it
Speaker 3: seems house of card z. You know, you think maybe
Speaker 3: if if an offense can take care of the ball
Speaker 3: and could just stay on schedule, the whole thing falls down.
Speaker 3: Well that's what Utah is, right, Like, I mean, Utah
Speaker 3: teams can, you know, like they were built to be
Speaker 3: able to you know, like in response to this USC team,
Speaker 3: even though the USC team came along later, but like that,
Speaker 3: I really like the matchup of Utah's offense against that
Speaker 3: USC defense. What Utah's offense does not do. The weakness
Speaker 3: of it is they cannot generate explosive plays, and in
Speaker 3: certain games that is going to be an enormous problem.
Speaker 3: And we've already seen dis manifest in a couple of them, right, Like,
Speaker 3: they've already taken their couple losses in part because of this.
Speaker 3: But I don't think they need to do that to
Speaker 3: beat USC. What they need to do to beat USC
Speaker 3: is play good defense, but then on offense, take care
Speaker 3: of the ball and stay on schedule. I know that
Speaker 3: they're going to do that on offense, right Like, I mean,
Speaker 3: they just will. They're not going to allow USC to
Speaker 3: flip the field and then put Caleb Williams in a
Speaker 3: really good field position and then put points on the
Speaker 3: on the board. That way, they're gonna make USC's offense, Okay,
Speaker 3: you want to score a touchdown, you got to go
Speaker 3: eighty yards, you gotta go seventy five yards, and you
Speaker 3: got to methodically do it against our defense, a really
Speaker 3: solid defense, you know, in Utah's. Utah's offense, I think
Speaker 3: it probably better than people think it's. It's number ten
Speaker 3: SP plus. USC's, by the way, is fiftieth SP plus. Again,
Speaker 3: it's been played above its head because of the turnovers.
Speaker 3: I think those go away in this game. USC also
Speaker 3: has a really really bad special teams in Utah plays
Speaker 3: awesome special teams. It's a discrepancy in the SPPLUS rankings
Speaker 3: almost one hundred. Utah is twenty third. USC is one
Speaker 3: hundred and twentieth. So that's another area of the game,
Speaker 3: sort of a sneaky part where I think Utah could
Speaker 3: maybe steal some points. I actually like Utah in this game.
Speaker 3: I think Utah is going to win and I like
Speaker 3: them to cover as well.
Speaker 2: A tough place to play too, Utah.
Speaker 3: Very tough place to play.
Speaker 2: Utah very the crowd is into it. They're going to
Speaker 2: make it difficult for sure.
Speaker 1: The last one in the top five, let's go to
Speaker 1: the ACC number fifteen NC State hosting number eighteen Syracuse.
Speaker 1: Syracuse is a three and a half point favorite here
Speaker 1: on the road. Forty four is the total. I know
Speaker 1: there's a question about Devin Leary if he's going to
Speaker 1: be available in this game of QB for NC State.
Speaker 1: Syracuse has been killing it too, So how do you
Speaker 1: see this one going?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think Leary's out of there. I don't think
Speaker 3: he's gonna play from all the indications that we've got.
Speaker 3: Dave Doran did say on Monday that Leary's injury is
Speaker 3: not season ending, but the sort of he he didn't
Speaker 3: rule him out for this weekend, but the strong infinuation
Speaker 3: was that he was not gonna play. I would be
Speaker 3: stunned if Devin Leary takes even one snap. So so
Speaker 3: I think you can bet assuming that Devin Larry is
Speaker 3: going to be out. If there was good news for
Speaker 3: NSIS State, it's that they had two other, uh very
Speaker 3: important injuries to key contributors in their last game, and
Speaker 3: Doran was was way more optimistic about about those guys.
Speaker 3: They're the running back and their wide receiver to the
Speaker 3: running back Demi Sumo Kung Bay. I should have even tried.
Speaker 3: And then the receiver Devin I love.
Speaker 2: To hear those Minnesota guys try to say those I don't.
Speaker 3: I don't know why I tried. I really should not have.
Speaker 3: But anyway, and and Devin Carter for them is their
Speaker 3: best blocking receiver, and he is also of their downfield guys.
Speaker 3: He's not as much usage, but it's it's the pop
Speaker 3: the top thing and then the helping the run game.
Speaker 3: So he's a valuable player to that offense, even if
Speaker 3: the receiving numbers aren't a high as like say they
Speaker 3: or Thomas. He was more like the short area guy.
Speaker 3: He matters. It seems though, like Carter is gonna play
Speaker 3: and that Demi's gonna play as well, or at least
Speaker 3: that's what dorin Monts is to believe. But again Leary
Speaker 3: almost assuredly will be out. NC State is coming off
Speaker 3: of like NC State is in a bad spot here.
Speaker 3: They're coming off of a like a big win and
Speaker 3: and probably a win that you look back in hindsight
Speaker 3: that probably they shouldn't have had because they had to
Speaker 3: overcome all these different injuries and all this stuff you
Speaker 3: sort of get by Florida State, but now you have
Speaker 3: this beaten up team you have to turn around the
Speaker 3: next week, you have to travel to Syracuse and play
Speaker 3: the Syracuse team that not only is undefeated, but they
Speaker 3: are fresh as a daisy. It's not just that they're
Speaker 3: coming off of a bye week the week before they
Speaker 3: played friggin Wagner. They haven't they haven't actually played a
Speaker 3: real game in three weeks. So so I mean it's
Speaker 3: the tail of two cities with this game. Both the
Speaker 3: rosters are in totally opposite spots. And Syracuse they want
Speaker 3: to get out and they want to run and and
Speaker 3: and they can also be physical, you know, Schrader, you know,
Speaker 3: pounding them. And n said their defense gonna have to
Speaker 3: run after Tucker the whole time. And Trader now can pass,
Speaker 3: which NC State their defense is gonna have to get
Speaker 3: used to it because the Strader that they know, he
Speaker 3: couldn't throw, yeah, but now he can. Now he can throw.
Speaker 3: So Syracuse can be multiple now in a way that
Speaker 3: they couldn't used to be. They're going to provide more
Speaker 3: of a problem for NC State's defense than they used
Speaker 3: to and NC State's offense the jury's out on if
Speaker 3: they're gonna be able to move the ball. We this
Speaker 3: backup quarterback, we'll have to see he's just like this
Speaker 3: veteran kid that he you know, from the FCS or
Speaker 3: whatever that that that they brought in. Uh, I don't know. Well,
Speaker 3: we'll see some of these backup quarterbacks that we see
Speaker 3: are just hide the women and children bad.
Speaker 2: Well, but some of them are good to look at ASU.
Speaker 1: You know, Uh, Emery Jones got hurt and here comes
Speaker 1: the uh I can't remember the kid's name from ASU,
Speaker 1: but leads them to a win over Washington as two
Speaker 1: touchdown dogs.
Speaker 2: So it's just, you know, it's more often, more often
Speaker 2: than not, mostly exactly more often.
Speaker 3: Than not, when you go from the established arter the
Speaker 3: person that nobody's ever heard of before, it's a precipitous
Speaker 3: drop off, and sometimes it's enough so where it rules
Speaker 3: that team out for their odds of winning the game.
Speaker 3: So I mean like that, certainly the way you lean
Speaker 3: in this one, it's tough not having Leary. Leary's a
Speaker 3: fringe NFL guy, like you know, you know, probably a
Speaker 3: Day three type type prospect whatever. Losing him really hurts,
Speaker 3: especially for an offense that wasn't dynamic to begin with.
Speaker 3: So I if they're not able to throw and their
Speaker 3: running games not awesome, right, and they're also the running
Speaker 3: back if he can play, like the running back room
Speaker 3: might be depreciated anyway. So like, you know, I got
Speaker 3: questions about the NC State side that for all these reasons,
Speaker 3: that's why Syracuse is favored. That if the backup quarterback,
Speaker 3: if he shows up and he's awesome, then and C
Speaker 3: say it certainly would have a puncher shot. But the
Speaker 3: odds in this one would say that with the percentage
Speaker 3: is you would lean towards Syracuse for sure.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and shout out to Thomas. So Thomas, the Syracuse orangement,
Speaker 1: go Orange, let's go. How about them games that you like?
Speaker 1: Thor we went through the top five games, We've gone
Speaker 1: through the money games and the early games this week.
Speaker 1: You know, it's funny because we were talking about this
Speaker 1: before we hit record and you brought up I've only
Speaker 1: written up two games for my article so far, and
Speaker 1: you brought up one that I already wrote up in
Speaker 1: the Cal and Colorado under forty nine. And you know,
Speaker 1: my first instinct in this game was to take Cal
Speaker 1: minus the fourteen. But then I thought about, you know,
Speaker 1: the dead cap bounce with you know, Carl Drell being fired,
Speaker 1: and you were calling for that the entire season that
Speaker 1: Carl Durrell was gonna get canned here, so not a
Speaker 1: surprise to see him go. But I mean, what do
Speaker 1: we think in this game for Colorado and Cal because
Speaker 1: neither offense has been good, Like Jayde not has been good.
Speaker 1: He is like the most efficient running back in the nation.
Speaker 1: But when you look at like you know, PFF grades,
Speaker 1: if they mean anything to you, I believe Cal is
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty ninth in run blocking, so he
Speaker 1: is literally doing it all by himself.
Speaker 2: They have a little bit of passing at Cal, but
Speaker 2: Colorado's got nothing on offense at all. So I mean,
Speaker 2: this game screams the under which can be a little
Speaker 2: tricky sometimes, but I trust in my gut and FIU
Speaker 2: in New Mexico State a couple of weeks ago and
Speaker 2: that paid off big time. So what do you think
Speaker 2: in this game? Is forty nine? The over is is
Speaker 2: fairly high for these two pathetic offenses.
Speaker 3: Yeah. I rarely bring up fantasy in these shows because
Speaker 3: I know people hate to hear it, but I'm gonna
Speaker 3: do it for the second time today because in one
Speaker 3: of those ridiculously deep C two C leagues, I took
Speaker 3: jade Not at the end of a draft like the
Speaker 3: forty fifth round or whatever, and it's it's one of
Speaker 3: my one of my great picks of all time. I'm
Speaker 3: gonna have that kid for the next four years. And
Speaker 3: one of the owners in that league every single week
Speaker 3: sends me trade offers for him, and I've ignored every
Speaker 3: single one, and he's getting increasingly annoyed with me. He's
Speaker 3: like sending me messages like, hey man, have you seen
Speaker 3: my trade offers for jade Not? And it's like yeah, yeah, yeah,
Speaker 3: and I'm I'm not responding to them. You are not
Speaker 3: getting jade Not. But yet j Not been great and
Speaker 3: and cal Cal ran into one justin Wilcox, who struggled
Speaker 3: to drive offenses and entire time there found a Jym
Speaker 3: so so so good on him, but like you said,
Speaker 3: their offensive line stinks, they don't have quarterback play their
Speaker 3: their pass catchers aren't very good either, so it's it's
Speaker 3: still even though they finally found a good offensive player,
Speaker 3: he's a true freshman, and he's surrounded by not good
Speaker 3: offensive players, and they are playing one of the worst
Speaker 3: teams in the entire FBS, certainly the worst Power five team.
Speaker 3: For the side, I'm same thing you were talking about, Buckman.
Speaker 3: I'm not touching the side of this one. I think
Speaker 3: it's an objectively fair line. In fact, my system has
Speaker 3: California minus fourteen point four. It is right on that
Speaker 3: Vegas line. But the under I'm with you man, the
Speaker 3: total came out, I was actually surprised with how high
Speaker 3: it was. It comes out forty eight and a half
Speaker 3: my system. That was much more fair forty one and
Speaker 3: a half. If Vegas had dropped that number, nobody bats
Speaker 3: an eye like again, I'm surprised it was a touchdown
Speaker 3: higher than that. Colorado. They can't generate offense on really anybody.
Speaker 3: And the concern when you know with you know, as
Speaker 3: far as the total handicap goes in the Colorado game,
Speaker 3: is that the opponent is going to score a billion points.
Speaker 3: Kelly is gonna score a billion points. Cal's gonna run
Speaker 3: the ball a whole bunch with jayde Not behind the
Speaker 3: bad offensive line, and then they're going to huddle up
Speaker 3: very very slowly, and then they're going to meander up
Speaker 3: to the line and they're gonna snap the ball with
Speaker 3: like three seconds left on the play clock. Every single time.
Speaker 3: Cal rinks one hundred and twenty third in adjusted pace
Speaker 3: Colorado's they're fifty six, so they're around average, but their
Speaker 3: offense stinks, so it doesn't really matter for me. This
Speaker 3: total is too high. I do lean under wouldn't touch
Speaker 3: the side.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love that game this week for sure. The
Speaker 1: other game that you wanted to talk about is you're Jayhawks,
Speaker 1: number nineteen ranked. They're going into Oklahoma, who just did
Speaker 1: not show up for the Red River rivalry there, and
Speaker 1: I think Dylan Gabriel could be back here.
Speaker 2: I don't know how much it matters though, but Oklahoma
Speaker 2: currently sitting as I believe nine point favorites. Is that right, Yeah?
Speaker 2: Nine point favorites right now. But I took a look
Speaker 2: at the peaked at the money line here thor and
Speaker 2: Kansas is at plus to sixty on MGM, plus two
Speaker 2: twenty five on DraftKings plus two sixty and a color
Speaker 2: up other couple spots, So I don't know. The money
Speaker 2: line might look good.
Speaker 1: Especially if Gabriel doesn't play because Jalen Daniels is out,
Speaker 1: which is a big reason why Oklahoma is favored in
Speaker 1: this game. Most likely out, I guess I should say,
Speaker 1: because he hasn't been officially ruled out, like they'll never
Speaker 1: do that.
Speaker 2: But he ain't even play. But Jason Bean, as you
Speaker 2: mentioned before when we were talking on stages, a pretty good,
Speaker 2: you know, backup quarterback, one of the better ones in
Speaker 2: the nation. So what do you think of this game?
Speaker 3: Yeah that I took a drink as you were talking
Speaker 3: to signify metaphorically wedding my beak on that Jay Money line.
Speaker 3: The Gabriel status is very important because Davis Bevell, Oklahoma's
Speaker 3: backup stinks. The difference between Gabriel and him. It's it's
Speaker 3: like ten points. And it's not because Gabriel is as
Speaker 3: good as Bryce Young. It's because the backup is that bad.
Speaker 3: Brent Venable should be embarrassed for like leaving the QB
Speaker 3: two spot that bad when all the players were transferring
Speaker 3: all off season. You could have signed a billion different
Speaker 3: guys that were better than that kid. That's an unforced
Speaker 3: ara that was shooting yourself in the foot. But they
Speaker 3: can't help it now. So Gabriel is his status is
Speaker 3: key for Oklahoma. But like you were, mentioning. Like we
Speaker 3: were talking about on the stages, Daniels is not Jalen
Speaker 3: Daniels for Kansas is not going to play. But it's
Speaker 3: the opposite scenario for Kansas. Kansas had one of the
Speaker 3: better backup quarterbacks in the entire FBS in Jason Bean,
Speaker 3: who started the first nine games for them last year
Speaker 3: and was North Texas starter before that. Jason Bean has
Speaker 3: started numerous games in his college career. You call him
Speaker 3: a two year starter coming into this year. He has
Speaker 3: a good arm, and he was a track star in
Speaker 3: high school. He's one of the by any report, one
Speaker 3: of the fastest players on the Kansas football team. This
Speaker 3: stuff that Leopold likes to do with all the motion
Speaker 3: and then getting the quarterback out on the perimeter, that's
Speaker 3: what Bean wants to do. I mean, there's a reason
Speaker 3: that he was absolutely shredding TCU. I'm not going to
Speaker 3: say that he was better than Daniels, but in that game,
Speaker 3: Daniel did not do much in the first half, and
Speaker 3: then Bean came in and Kansas was not missing. Being
Speaker 3: did throw one interception in that second half, but on
Speaker 3: almost every other draft his scored a touching. I think
Speaker 3: he threw for four touchdowns and only in the last
Speaker 3: two quarters Jason Bean can play for me. I downgrade
Speaker 3: Kansas very very small there that you know, half a
Speaker 3: point or a point, whereas again with Gabriel to Bevel
Speaker 3: it's ten or eleven something like that. So keep an
Speaker 3: eye on that one. The other major major point is
Speaker 3: Oklahoma's defense is an abomination a couple a couple of
Speaker 3: stats for you and just crazy, almost unthinkable that a
Speaker 3: defense coordinated by Brent Venables could be this bad. But
Speaker 3: Kansas saw you know. The comparing contrast between the Kansas
Speaker 3: offense and the Oaklahoma defense. Kansas offense number twenty six
Speaker 3: in success rate, number ten in isoppp which is an
Speaker 3: explosiveness measure, and number thirty two in points per scoring opportunity.
Speaker 3: Here's the Oklahoma defense's rankings in the exact same categories.
Speaker 3: So Oklahoma's defense ranks number ninety eighth in success rate,
Speaker 3: number fifty one in explosiveness against, and one hundred and
Speaker 3: first in preventing the opponent from scoring when they're in
Speaker 3: the scoring opportunities. The Sooners also rank one hundred and
Speaker 3: twenty fifth out of one thirty one in tackling rates,
Speaker 3: so they can't.
Speaker 2: Tackle any anything. I mean, I know that as a
Speaker 2: Texas fan for the last decade. Is tackling is just
Speaker 2: so enormous. You have to do it. You know, you
Speaker 2: give guys ten fifteen extra yards by missing attackle It's ridiculous.
Speaker 3: This defense, it's what's gonna call it sun Belt level.
Speaker 3: The sun Belts good this year, and that would have
Speaker 3: been an insult to the sun Belt. This is it's
Speaker 3: an absolute embarrassment. Yes, if Dylan Gabriel doesn't play in
Speaker 3: this game, the Kansas Jayhawks are winning it out right.
Speaker 3: I'll just say that if Gabriel plays, we'll have a
Speaker 3: game for sure.
Speaker 2: But this game was close last year, wasn't it.
Speaker 3: Oh? Yeah, Kansas led into the fourth quarter against This
Speaker 3: is the one where.
Speaker 1: Like Caleb Williams has out of the running backs hand
Speaker 1: to get that purst down.
Speaker 2: That was the game.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Kansas. Kansas controlled that, I mean throughout until until
Speaker 3: the fourth courter, and yeah, they came back. That game
Speaker 3: is hilarious. Was like, uh, it was in Lawrence and
Speaker 3: Oklahoma's like thirty eight point favor or something, and this
Speaker 3: one is in Norman and it's thirty points last or whatever.
Speaker 3: But yeah, to me, this line it's too high. I mean,
Speaker 3: like it's even despite the thirty points you know shift
Speaker 3: or whatever. Kansas is, Like I said, absolutely legitimate opponent.
Speaker 3: Absolutely could have beaten TCU last week despite losing their
Speaker 3: starting quarterback. I'm still upset about it. Very last drive.
Speaker 3: Two very obvious penalties happened on the last two plays
Speaker 3: that were not called. One of them was the horse
Speaker 3: collar thing on the third down and then the more
Speaker 3: egregious one a very clear pass interference on fourth down
Speaker 3: that the rest just didn't throw a flat. But anyway,
Speaker 3: either way, Kansas played with TCU the entire time. It was,
Speaker 3: you know, a coin flip type game, and TCU is.
Speaker 3: I mean, we'll find out by the end of the
Speaker 3: year they're either the best team in the Big Twelve
Speaker 3: or the second best team in the Big Twelve. I
Speaker 3: think we'll figure that out. Uh, maybe we'll have to
Speaker 3: wait until the Big Twelve title game. But them in Texas,
Speaker 3: I think they're gonna have a tango. I'm sorry to
Speaker 3: disco on Oklahoma State, but for me, those are the
Speaker 3: two teams. But this Oklahoma team, they can't defend anyone,
Speaker 3: they can't tackle against anyone. The only way they can
Speaker 3: derive offense is when Dylan Gabriel is one hundred percent
Speaker 3: healthy and they're able to hit the downfield shots. But
Speaker 3: I will say even though Kansas's secondary, it's not a
Speaker 3: leech for sure, And don't take what I'm about to
Speaker 3: say as that they are. They are opportunistic. Though Kansas's
Speaker 3: defensive backs can flip the field. They're I mean, you
Speaker 3: can think of them essentially as like a sort of
Speaker 3: a homeless man's version of the USC thing where they
Speaker 3: can you know, they are able to get the interceptions
Speaker 3: and flip it a little bit. Oklahoma needs Dylan Gabriel
Speaker 3: in this game. We don't know if he's gonna play it.
Speaker 3: It's sounding more optimistic on that side. But again, either way,
Speaker 3: I'm taking the nine points and if Gabriel is not playing,
Speaker 3: it's rock shock outright for sure.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be a fun week, another fun week of
Speaker 1: college football. Good luck and all your bets. You can
Speaker 1: follow me on Twitter at Bogman Sports. You'll follow Thor
Speaker 1: at thor ku Thor. What is the schedule for this week?
Speaker 1: Remind everyone where they can find all your work. Obviously,
Speaker 1: you can go to Twitter to find all of it,
Speaker 1: But what do you got coming up here?
Speaker 3: I got my ten best bets coming up on vetting
Speaker 3: pro as. What would be when you guys hear this?
Speaker 3: Maybe today on Thursday, and then on Saturday, I have
Speaker 3: my ninety minute live show with Mike Farrell where people
Speaker 3: can come and watch live and then also ask questions.
Speaker 3: Mike and I answer any questions you have about the
Speaker 3: betting card, and then we handicap as many games as
Speaker 3: we can get you know, get through or whatever, and
Speaker 3: also give out our favorite props you know, as well
Speaker 3: as the sides and the totals obviously. And then on
Speaker 3: the day after, you know, every every college football Saturday,
Speaker 3: on Sunday, me and Tomas Viola sit down after the
Speaker 3: lines have dropped the new lines for the coming week,
Speaker 3: go through those lines. I've run my numbers Sunday morning,
Speaker 3: comparing my lines against the Vegas lines. Are there any
Speaker 3: games that you should bet early? Are there any injuries
Speaker 3: that are affecting the lines? Just sort of going through
Speaker 3: the card in that way. If there's any angles early
Speaker 3: on in the week to check that out as well.
Speaker 1: Check them out and good luck in your bets. Week seven.
Speaker 1: Wee will see you guys, next week, take it easy.
Speaker 2: Everybody