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Speaker 1: to Hoops today. You're at the volume. Happy Thursday, everybody.
Speaker 1: I hope all of you guys are having a great
Speaker 1: week so far. I am very very excited for today's show.
Speaker 1: We've been doing this I think two maybe three years.
Speaker 1: I can't even remember exactly how many, but my friend
Speaker 1: Sam Vessini is coming on to break down our contender rankings. Sam,
Speaker 1: how are you, man, how is the early part of
Speaker 1: the season treating you?
Speaker 3: It's good, you know, I'm trying to dive into a
Speaker 3: lot of international prospects I've watched. I've targeted my preseason viewing,
Speaker 3: I think is the way to put it. Like, I
Speaker 3: texted you about a few things I've seen, Like I
Speaker 3: texted you about Phoenix and their offense looking a lot
Speaker 3: more fluid. I texted you weirdly about Charlotte. I was like,
Speaker 3: Charlotte looks like a lot more competent stylistically than what
Speaker 3: they have the last couple of years, Like Charles Lee
Speaker 3: has them just like firing from three. Like I'm all
Speaker 3: for that, right, But you know, I'm not gonna sit
Speaker 3: here and tell you I've watched every preseason team yet
Speaker 3: just because that's I don't know, that doesn't feel like
Speaker 3: a great use of my time yet, Yeah, I was.
Speaker 1: I was actually complaining to Paul two days ago. I
Speaker 1: was like, dude, I'm so ready for preseason to be over.
Speaker 1: Like I had a much easier time with preseason last
Speaker 1: year this year, Like, I just so badly want to
Speaker 1: get to the real basketball, but at the same time,
Speaker 1: we're less than a week away, so we're not too
Speaker 1: worried about that. So, as we usually do this time
Speaker 1: of year, we want to break down our contenders just
Speaker 1: to give you a real basic outlook. I had eleven
Speaker 1: teams listed in my realistic Contenders. I have a top
Speaker 1: tier with Boston, Denver, OKAC at New York, and then
Speaker 1: I have this tier of seven teams that I view
Speaker 1: as if things go right, and that could be like
Speaker 1: if they hit on a trade, if a young player pops.
Speaker 1: Maybe it's a team that specifically relies on health luck
Speaker 1: that's had really bad health luck in the past. Maybe
Speaker 1: it's matchups, like some of these teams have very specific
Speaker 1: types of matchup weaknesses. And so those teams for me
Speaker 1: are Dallas in order, Dallas, Philly, Minnesota, the Lakers, the Bucks,
Speaker 1: the Suns in the Grizzly. So before I know, you
Speaker 1: have a different top tier than I do. But is
Speaker 1: there any team other than those eleven teams that you
Speaker 1: actually think has a realistic shot to win the title
Speaker 1: this year that I had not listed?
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a great question, right, I think no, So,
Speaker 3: like the Pelicans are interesting if they could make the
Speaker 3: right move at the deadline, But I think still probably
Speaker 3: know for them honestly, Like I I think I would
Speaker 3: remove the Grizzlies, Like, I really love this Grizzlies team.
Speaker 3: I think they're gonna win somewhere between like forty six
Speaker 3: and fifty two games like something like that. It's just
Speaker 3: that I don't know how well their team actually aligns
Speaker 3: for the playoffs right now. They don't have a lot
Speaker 3: of spacing, they don't have a lot of shooting. It
Speaker 3: feels very cramped, and basically, until John Morant proves to
Speaker 3: me that he can make a pull up jump shot consistently,
Speaker 3: it's just gonna be really hard for me to buy
Speaker 3: them in the playoffs.
Speaker 1: I feel like, right, yeah, I I watched a lot
Speaker 1: of Grizzlies when I was doing their season previews because
Speaker 1: I just didn't watch my to them last year. It's like,
Speaker 1: because why, like you talk about talking about targeting your viewing,
Speaker 1: I was not targeting.
Speaker 3: Oh boy, their offense was hard to watch last year.
Speaker 1: But when I went back and I watched a few
Speaker 1: of the Jah Morant games, I really like Marcus Smart
Speaker 1: as a connective piece. I used to think, like I'm
Speaker 1: I've been generally low on three guard lineups, just as
Speaker 1: as as I've just seen over the last few years
Speaker 1: some of these bigger, beefier teams that are better at
Speaker 1: defensive rebounding, better at pounding the front line, that kind
Speaker 1: of thing. I've just seen those teams have a lot
Speaker 1: of success. I've been lower on three guard looks, but
Speaker 1: after I watched them, Bain and Smart are both so physical,
Speaker 1: and they're both so good at pushing guys off of
Speaker 1: their spots and keeping guys out of their like preferred
Speaker 1: ways to initiate offense. And then also just the perfect
Speaker 1: guy to like kind of connect things on offense, Like
Speaker 1: Marcus Smart. He kind of has a reputation for being
Speaker 1: a shot chucker, but he's actually become a pretty decent
Speaker 1: passer and connective piece at this face in his career,
Speaker 1: and so that and then just the the the like.
Speaker 1: They just have so much of this like young exciting
Speaker 1: athleticism with Jaron Jackson and with John Moran, the like
Speaker 1: Gigi Jackson will see if he can get healthy. But
Speaker 1: to me, there it was a simple question of them
Speaker 1: having most likely a pretty decent seed going into the postseason.
Speaker 2: I don't know about you. I thought Edie looked amazing.
Speaker 1: This game the other night, Like he kept getting to
Speaker 1: that left shoulder hook and just people couldn't stop him
Speaker 1: down there. I thought he'd held up pretty well running
Speaker 1: up and down the floor, so I was a little
Speaker 1: higher on them. The only other team that I considered
Speaker 1: that I didn't put in there, The Pelicans weren't for me,
Speaker 1: but just that's just because, like their top guys are
Speaker 1: just guys that I don't really fear in any sort
Speaker 1: of real playoff series type of setting. The Calves were
Speaker 1: the other team where I could see. I could see
Speaker 1: Calves fans being like, we're a contender. I just don't
Speaker 1: see it because of my fears with Evan Mobley and
Speaker 1: Darius Garland. I just think those two guys are so
Speaker 1: flawed at this point in their career. I think they're
Speaker 1: too exposable in a playoff setting.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I still just don't love the way that their
Speaker 3: roster fits together, and because of their extension decisions this summer,
Speaker 3: they are a bit limited throughout the season in terms
Speaker 3: of the moves that they can make. Like Darius Garland
Speaker 3: is really the only guy that can be moved throughout
Speaker 3: the entirety of the season.
Speaker 4: I think that Jarrett.
Speaker 3: Allen can be moved right around the end of January
Speaker 3: start of February. That's when his six month window from
Speaker 3: his extension ends.
Speaker 4: Evan Mobley, you know.
Speaker 3: Isn't going to be moved obviously, but you know, he's
Speaker 3: really not even tradable right now because he just signed
Speaker 3: his extension. So then you have Donovan Mitchell, who you know,
Speaker 3: just signed his massive contract extension as well. So they're
Speaker 3: really locked in. And I think it's okay to be
Speaker 3: locked in, but it's a core group that I feel
Speaker 3: like again doesn't necessarily mix and match well toward playoff
Speaker 3: basketball and to go sorry, you want to go back
Speaker 3: to the Grizzlies just.
Speaker 4: Like real quick.
Speaker 3: I'm glad that they're like, by far, the most interesting
Speaker 3: team to me in the early season. It's like them,
Speaker 3: it's Houston, It's you know, I do want to see
Speaker 3: what Oklahoma City looks like. New York obviously has all
Speaker 3: of these new pieces, right, but they are fascinating to me,
Speaker 3: if only because of the push pool between the Edy
Speaker 3: style and the Jaw style, right because Jaw's style is frenetic,
Speaker 3: and if you listen to the Grizzlies, they've been so
Speaker 3: outspoken about wanting to play at the fastest pace possible.
Speaker 3: But then you get to the Edy portion of it,
Speaker 3: and Edie is, you know, as you mentioned earlier this
Speaker 3: week in the game that he played against Indiana, best
Speaker 3: utilized in post ups in all likelihood right now, So
Speaker 3: how does that push pool go? My idea for that was, Okay,
Speaker 3: you can start Zach Edie. That's fine. You play Edy
Speaker 3: with Jaw for the first five minutes, then you take
Speaker 3: him out, you play job for the first you know,
Speaker 3: tend to you know, first quarter basically, and then when
Speaker 3: John gets arrest you bring back Eadie and just just
Speaker 3: let him. But you let him just like totally eat
Speaker 3: against second units. I think that's where Edie's gonna like
Speaker 3: just feast. You give him second unit centers like Isaiah
Speaker 3: Jackson against Indiana. I know he did really well against
Speaker 3: Miles Turner too, but you know, that's kind of my pride.
Speaker 2: Jackson was hopeless.
Speaker 3: He had no chance. So there are a lot of
Speaker 3: guys like that on second units. All due respect to
Speaker 3: enormous human beings at the center position in the NBA,
Speaker 3: you are just smaller than Zach Edy. Like I was
Speaker 3: trying to explain to somebody the difference in height and
Speaker 3: length between like Zach Edy and Steven Adams. And Steven
Speaker 3: Adams is an enormous human being. If you've ever stood
Speaker 3: next to him, oh my goodness, he is enormous. The
Speaker 3: difference in height between those two is like the difference
Speaker 3: in height between Steven Adams and like Luca, Like, it's.
Speaker 4: Just enormously different.
Speaker 3: Those are two, like three people that are of entirely
Speaker 3: different heights.
Speaker 4: And Edie is mean. He's an ass kicker.
Speaker 3: He's like a great guy off the court, but like
Speaker 3: when he's on the court, he is as competitive as
Speaker 3: can be. I love Edie as a regular season player.
Speaker 3: I don't know what it's gonna look like in the
Speaker 3: playoffs yet, but as a regular season player, that dude's
Speaker 3: gonna absolutely feast.
Speaker 4: I have no doubt there.
Speaker 1: I like that idea too, of like staggering and maybe
Speaker 1: partnering Baine with the Edie units and running like some
Speaker 1: splitter cut type stuff while he's posting out that that
Speaker 1: could be a really interesting way for them to go.
Speaker 2: But let's get to the top of the league.
Speaker 1: Canard too. By the way, Canard too exactly. So let's
Speaker 1: start with a very basic question. Do you think Boston
Speaker 1: should be in a separate tier above the rest of
Speaker 1: the field, or do you think they belong in the
Speaker 1: top tier with some other teams.
Speaker 4: So I had Boston in a tier with one other team, and.
Speaker 3: I'm gonn assume, I guess think that's okay. See right,
Speaker 3: it's Oklahoma City. Yeah, I have like a separate mini
Speaker 3: tier of these two being a little bit different than
Speaker 3: the other teams.
Speaker 4: And then I have you know, another I don't.
Speaker 3: Know, maybe like three or four team group realistically, and
Speaker 3: then I have your other teams kind of underneath that.
Speaker 3: So yeah, I've Boston in Oklahoma City just in a
Speaker 3: tier that is separate, if only because to me, they
Speaker 3: are the two teams in the NBA that kind of
Speaker 3: embody this era in terms of where basketball is going most.
Speaker 3: And to me, that answer is it's finding solutions to
Speaker 3: every problem that an opposing team can pose for you
Speaker 3: while also playing the math game of shooting threes and
Speaker 3: playing five out spacing right. And by that I mean
Speaker 3: if a team wants to go big against you, both
Speaker 3: of these teams have the wherewithal to be able to
Speaker 3: go as big as possible. Oklahoma City with Chet and
Speaker 3: Isaiah Hartenstein, Boston hopefully with chrisops Porzingis when he gets
Speaker 3: healthy and Al Horford, they have the ability to go.
Speaker 4: Small against you.
Speaker 3: They can go Boston to go Horford at the five
Speaker 3: with their four great perimeter players Drew Derek White, Jason Tatum,
Speaker 3: Jalen Brown. Oklahoma City can do it with you know,
Speaker 3: Shake Gils, Alexander, Jalen Williams, and any of their bevy
Speaker 3: of options across the wing. But they're also always going
Speaker 3: to play five out offense, always going to be essentially
Speaker 3: a top three offense in the league with their current constructions.
Speaker 3: Both organizations can really really pass the ball, They get
Speaker 3: good movement, and they set up their stars for success.
Speaker 3: That's the number one key of today's NBA, I think,
Speaker 3: is setting up your stars to play in the most
Speaker 3: space possible. Boston's scheme allows for them to invert post
Speaker 3: touches for Jason Tatum and Jalen Brown if they want to.
Speaker 3: They can have those guys drive because they constantly have
Speaker 3: five floor spacers out there on the court.
Speaker 4: Oklahoma City, it's the.
Speaker 3: Same deal they were really for years, even when they
Speaker 3: were bad, even when they had Al Horford on that
Speaker 3: team for a year. Right Their whole thing was that
Speaker 3: they wanted five out spacing. This is why we got
Speaker 3: the Isaiah Robis at center, the Darius Baisleys at centers
Speaker 3: at times while Mark Dagnall figured out what his scheme
Speaker 3: was going to be for the future. So those two teams,
Speaker 3: to me, have the best combination of elite talent, modern
Speaker 3: offensive principles and also the ability to match up with
Speaker 3: you defensively in a bevy of ways. And they have
Speaker 3: a way to match up with you defensively for any
Speaker 3: lineup that you put on the court.
Speaker 2: I one hundred percent agree. I think there.
Speaker 1: I think I would put those two teams on a
Speaker 1: separate tier in terms of like just pure talent. I
Speaker 1: think the Oklahoma City, with the moves they made this summer,
Speaker 1: entered into Boston's tier in talent in a way that
Speaker 1: they were probably in a separate tier in years past.
Speaker 1: The two the reason why I included Denver, New York,
Speaker 1: and by the way, I don't want to spend too
Speaker 1: much time on Denver because I want to actually hit
Speaker 1: them as an entire separate topic here in a minute.
Speaker 1: But like the reason why I included Denver, New York
Speaker 1: are pretty simple. Denver has in my opinion, the best
Speaker 1: player in the world, and in New York, they have
Speaker 1: a lot of talent that is kind of point and
Speaker 1: shot in a very specific way that accentuates their gifts. So,
Speaker 1: for instance, like, does anybody think that Jalen Brunson is
Speaker 1: as good at basketball as Shay or as Luca, or
Speaker 1: as Jokic or as Tatum.
Speaker 4: No, but they've gone down to Manhattan and say that Jason, Yeah.
Speaker 2: This is what I'm saying.
Speaker 1: So like, and more importantly, go into Madison Square Garden
Speaker 1: in a in a big game where Jalen is determining
Speaker 1: every possession when he is pointed and shot as the
Speaker 1: primary shot creator and he doesn't really have to do
Speaker 1: much else. He's really damn good at it. And then
Speaker 1: same go like mkale and Og. It's like, are Mkaleen
Speaker 1: Og as good as Tatum and Brown? Know, but they're
Speaker 1: kind of like focused in these very specific ways with
Speaker 1: the Knicks where they impact winning at a really high level.
Speaker 1: Karl Anthony Towns, I like, I know he's not shooting
Speaker 1: well in preseason, but the amount of wide open shots
Speaker 1: he's getting as like a trailer in transition or or
Speaker 1: popping out of any sort of screening action. He's going
Speaker 1: to get so many open looks and he is going
Speaker 1: to hit them this year. The obviously they're a team
Speaker 1: that lacks a little bit of center depth. There's some
Speaker 1: question marks there. But like to me, Denver and New
Speaker 1: York are examples of teams where I think the total
Speaker 1: is more than the sum of their parts because of
Speaker 1: the uniqueness of New York's talent and the uniqueness of
Speaker 1: Nikole jokicch and specifically with Denver, there the the matchup
Speaker 1: problems that they present because Jokic is so unguardable. Do
Speaker 1: you have any pushback on my defenses of New York Denver?
Speaker 3: So let's ignore Denver because you do have like a
Speaker 3: whole section here for Denver. New York is fascinating to
Speaker 3: me because you know I mentioned earlier with Oklahoma City
Speaker 3: and Boston, the reason I have New York in just
Speaker 3: a different tier, and I agree with you, I have
Speaker 3: them in my top four right now. New York I
Speaker 3: have them in a slightly different tier than the other
Speaker 3: two because of that ability to match up in different ways.
Speaker 3: I don't really think that they can do it. I
Speaker 3: think this team is almost I don't know that they
Speaker 3: can do it. I'm just saying the way that I
Speaker 3: think that, you know, Leon Rose and all that front
Speaker 3: office have built this team. I think that they have
Speaker 3: built this team to contend with Boston more so than
Speaker 3: the other teams in the Eastern Conference in a playoff series.
Speaker 3: They're trying to win or trying to keep up basically
Speaker 3: with the math game, while also having a bunch of
Speaker 3: different options on the wing to be able to throw
Speaker 3: a Jayalen Brown and Jason Tatum. That's what I see
Speaker 3: when I see New York's team build. But if you
Speaker 3: look at them against Milwaukee, I'm honestly, like really interested
Speaker 3: in how they would match up with Milwaukee because they
Speaker 3: don't really have the interior strength and power unless Mitchell
Speaker 3: Robinson is fully healthy to be able to stop Jannis
Speaker 3: from getting to the rim. Right, Like Karl Anthony, Town's
Speaker 3: phenomenal offensive player showcased real moments last year where he
Speaker 3: could match up one on one with bigger bodies like
Speaker 3: Nikole Jokic while they had but slower bodies, Right, I
Speaker 3: don't think he profiles super well against Giannis necessarily, And
Speaker 3: on top of it, what you typically want to do
Speaker 3: against Gianness is you want to have a help defender
Speaker 3: like Rudy Gobert there to be at the rim, as
Speaker 3: opposed to having og A Nanobi who is a fantastic,
Speaker 3: phenomenal elite level perimeter defender. He's a smaller, right, He's
Speaker 3: not a primary rim protector. So I actually want under
Speaker 3: how that series would go. If I'm being completely transparent,
Speaker 3: like I think that New York almost matches up slightly
Speaker 3: better on paper with Boston than it does with Milwaukee.
Speaker 3: It's just Milwaukee has its own shit to figure out, right,
Speaker 3: Like they have to figure out the dam and Gianni stuff.
Speaker 3: They have to figure out Doc Rivers, you know, figuring
Speaker 3: his stuff out, everything like that. But then you look
Speaker 3: at Philadelphia as well, like Philadelphia has like a weird
Speaker 3: matchup I think with New York.
Speaker 4: So the lack of like.
Speaker 3: This is a word, I'm going to create a thin
Speaker 3: air match up ability, match up flexibility maybe is the
Speaker 3: way to put it. Is why I'm slightly lower on
Speaker 3: New York than I am on Boston and Oklahoma City.
Speaker 1: So I completely agree in the sense that compared to
Speaker 1: OKAC in Boston, they don't have the versatility I I'm
Speaker 1: really worried about teams that can space cat out because
Speaker 1: as good at like, just having both Brunson and Kat
Speaker 1: out there just gives you a little bit more vulnerability
Speaker 1: in those situations. The Milwaukee matchup is interesting because I
Speaker 1: kind of like Og on Giannis a little bit. The
Speaker 1: bigger issue I would have. The bigger issue i'd have
Speaker 1: there is like, if you end up putting Kat as
Speaker 1: your back line, They're just gonna space Brook above the
Speaker 1: break on the opposite side and try to punish you
Speaker 1: in that regard. And I think you are a little
Speaker 1: weak on help Length simply because if you put Og
Speaker 1: on the ball, and in this case McHale, Bridges is
Speaker 1: the guy who's guarding Dame, right Like, that's the direction
Speaker 1: you're going in all likelihood.
Speaker 4: Maybe Heart like, maybe Hart.
Speaker 3: So if it's McHale, depends on what version of Chris
Speaker 3: Middleton you get, probably.
Speaker 1: Too exactly, and so yeah, and if Middleton's out there,
Speaker 1: who's guarding Middleton?
Speaker 2: Right Like?
Speaker 1: At that point, I think I'd probably put Hard on
Speaker 1: Middleton and I'd probably put Bridges on Dame because I'd
Speaker 1: want Length contesting over the back pressure. But like in
Speaker 1: that sort of situation, if OG's on Giannis, and kat
Speaker 1: is being spaced above the break on the opposite side,
Speaker 1: and I have Michale Bridges chasing in action with Dame.
Speaker 1: That means Josh Hart and Jalen Brunson are my back
Speaker 1: line in any sort of situation like that. So, like
Speaker 1: you're right, there's not as much matchup versatility there. I
Speaker 1: want to be clear, like Boston, I would not put
Speaker 1: them on a separate tier, but I do think they're
Speaker 1: the clear number one. I don't think any team in
Speaker 1: the league, like if someone argued to me, I think
Speaker 1: Boston's not the favorite.
Speaker 2: This is the team I think is it?
Speaker 1: I think is And here's why I'd be like, I
Speaker 1: can't even conceptualize a version of that that I get behind.
Speaker 1: OKAC would be the one team that I would think of.
Speaker 1: But even with OKC, I think their question mark centering
Speaker 1: around like, hey, like Jalen Williams in year three is
Speaker 1: your second best shot creator and a guy that is
Speaker 1: going to be determining a lot of key possessions for
Speaker 1: you in the postseason, That to me is a little
Speaker 1: bit of a question mark.
Speaker 2: The lot of youth there.
Speaker 1: Even though I'm super high on Oklahoma City and so
Speaker 1: I think Boston. I think just has a clear sign
Speaker 1: of a clear strength in terms of experience and just
Speaker 1: overall shot creation and that sort of stuff. So like,
Speaker 1: to me, Boston's a clear number one. I totally get
Speaker 1: your reasoning for having Denver, New York in a second tier.
Speaker 1: For Denver, here's what I'm gonna do for Denver. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna just quickly pitch to you. I think people are
Speaker 1: writing them off too quickly, and then I want you
Speaker 1: to tell me why you disagree or agree. So I
Speaker 1: was talking about this on my show yesterday. So much
Speaker 1: went wrong for Denver last year. Jokic jump shot in
Speaker 1: the postseason was worth zero point three to eight points
Speaker 1: lesser single attempt than it was in the previous jump
Speaker 1: previous postseason, so literally four tenths of a point less
Speaker 1: first shot from the previous postseason. Casep hurts his ankle
Speaker 1: in the first round. Jamal Murray hurts his calf muscle
Speaker 1: in the first round. Jokich is also clearly gassed by
Speaker 1: the end of the Minnesota series and is just really
Speaker 1: really struggling to do some of the dirty work stuff
Speaker 1: that he did really well. And we're like, if you
Speaker 1: just turn maybe two or three minutes of that run
Speaker 1: from bad basketball into decent basketball. They're in the Western
Speaker 1: Conference Finals. I think they get favored because Gafford and
Speaker 1: Lively would get eaten alive by Jokic. I also think
Speaker 1: Aaron Gordon is a better defensive matchup for LUCA than
Speaker 1: basically every forward in the league except for a small
Speaker 1: handful of guys, and so I just think that was
Speaker 1: a matchup that would have benefited Denver and then Denver Boston.
Speaker 1: I mean, who knows what would happen in that series.
Speaker 1: I probably would have picked Boston just because how banged
Speaker 1: up Denver was. But Denver had a decent matchup in
Speaker 1: that series because of their front line and the poor
Speaker 1: zingis injury and things along those lines. So like for
Speaker 1: a second round loss, with so many things that got
Speaker 1: that went wrong, I think they were reasonably close to
Speaker 1: still making a very deep playoff run, at at a
Speaker 1: minimum at least making it to the conference finals. So
Speaker 1: with that being the case, as I look at the roster,
Speaker 1: I'm higher on Christian Brown with the starters than most people.
Speaker 1: I think that he's bigger and stronger than KCP, which
Speaker 1: I think actually keeps them a little bit more versatile
Speaker 1: defensively in terms of like they won't have to put
Speaker 1: Aaron Gordon on big Fords all the time, and they
Speaker 1: could keep him in help more often. The bench is
Speaker 1: a complete shit show. We all know that, everyone can
Speaker 1: can admit that, but that's been That was basically the
Speaker 1: case the entirety of this era, with the exception of
Speaker 1: they had this sixth starter in Bruce Brown, and I
Speaker 1: would argue that if they were going to win the
Speaker 1: title again, somebody's going to have to materialize from that group,
Speaker 1: whether it's Peyton Watson or who knows what, Maybe it's
Speaker 1: a Russell Westbrook vindication at some point. But like, the
Speaker 1: bench is a shit show, But to me, the starting
Speaker 1: lineup it still is this really rock solid cores. I
Speaker 1: do think Jokic will shoot jump shots better this year,
Speaker 1: which is such an important ceiling razor for him. Obviously
Speaker 1: there's a question mark with Jamal Murray's help, but I
Speaker 1: think people are more like wishing on Denver's downfall than
Speaker 1: like some of the actual tangible basketball materializing that way.
Speaker 1: So where are you at with Denver? Are you much
Speaker 1: lower on them than I am? Do you think that
Speaker 1: this is the the they're on the way down.
Speaker 3: I think my answer to that is more that I
Speaker 3: just think they have more variants than they've had over
Speaker 3: the last few years. It's not that I think they
Speaker 3: don't have the same upside. I think that they do
Speaker 3: have similar upside if things all break right. It's just
Speaker 3: that the downside is lower than what we've seen from
Speaker 3: them the last couple of years. And to me, that
Speaker 3: does all revolve around Jamal Murray. Jamal Murray hasn't played
Speaker 3: great basketball in the last eight months. That's the reality
Speaker 3: of the situation here. Didn't play great at the Olympics,
Speaker 3: wasn't great for the last what three four months of
Speaker 3: the NBA season last year year.
Speaker 2: More shot attempts than point in the playoffs. Yes, so.
Speaker 3: I don't think it's as simple as saying that Denver
Speaker 3: should be written off. They absolutely should not be written off.
Speaker 3: And I agree with you in having them in your
Speaker 3: top four or five contenders one hundred percent. I would
Speaker 3: also have Denver there. My main concern revolves around Murray
Speaker 3: and what happens if Murray is not the offensive creator
Speaker 3: that has incredible synergy with nicolea Jokic that we've seen previously.
Speaker 3: I actually don't know that they have an answer to
Speaker 3: that question, and they've now extended Jamal Murray and extended
Speaker 3: him after the deadline where he can be moved this season.
Speaker 4: So they're in a space where they need this to
Speaker 4: go right.
Speaker 3: There's not another They don't have an out really in
Speaker 3: terms like they don't have their pick this year, they
Speaker 3: don't have a ton of flexibility with their future draft
Speaker 3: picks in terms of being able to move them. Their
Speaker 3: young guys are polarizing. Like I can tell you from
Speaker 3: talking to teams league wide, there are people that really
Speaker 3: really like Peyton Watson. There are people who have questions
Speaker 3: about if he's just like an interesting, you know, curious
Speaker 3: athlete who can cut and who can defend a little
Speaker 3: bit but doesn't really shoot it and is still developing
Speaker 3: into his overall game. There are questions about Julian Strawther.
Speaker 3: There are questions, like most people don't really think Jalen
Speaker 3: Pickett a is a player. You know, Hunter Tyson is
Speaker 3: very polarizing as a player. All of these guys that
Speaker 3: they've drafted, they've just always been extremely polarizing, which means
Speaker 3: it's harder for them to make deals with teams involving
Speaker 3: those players, some evaluators and executives are maybe going to
Speaker 3: like those players more than others, or they might have
Speaker 3: like very different opinions on those players, which means if
Speaker 3: you're trying to foster a trade to go get like
Speaker 3: another real difference maker, it's like, well, we really like
Speaker 3: Julian Strawther, but we don't like Hunter Tyson, or we
Speaker 3: don't like you know, Peyton Watson, or we really like
Speaker 3: Peyton Watson, but we don't like Strawther, we don't like
Speaker 3: X Y and Z. Right, we really like Doron Holmes,
Speaker 3: but Doron Holmes is out for the year now, so
Speaker 3: we don't know what to do with that. It's just
Speaker 3: going to be a moving target for them, I think,
Speaker 3: on the trade market in terms of trying to improve
Speaker 3: this group.
Speaker 4: So they need what they have.
Speaker 3: Now to go right, and it could I think that
Speaker 3: you're one hundred percent right like that. That's why this
Speaker 3: is like not all. It's an exciting conversation because we
Speaker 3: haven't had this much uncertainty with Denver in a while.
Speaker 3: But it's not a question I can answer. I feel like,
Speaker 3: either you could tell me Denver wins fifty five games
Speaker 3: and is incredible. Again, you could honestly sell me on
Speaker 3: them winning like forty six this year because teams just
Speaker 3: completely sell out to stop Jokic. Christian Brown does not
Speaker 3: have a great shooting season. Aaron Gordon is obviously not
Speaker 3: really a great shooter, but plays off of jokicch incredibly
Speaker 3: well as a cutter. Michael Porter Junior is a guy
Speaker 3: that's had health issues in the past, so you never know,
Speaker 3: Like you could sell me on a number of things
Speaker 3: they have. They have a number of cascading things that
Speaker 3: could go wrong for them, but they also still have
Speaker 3: Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, and Michael Porter Junior surrounding the
Speaker 3: best player on planet Earth doesn't really miss games who
Speaker 3: you can you can rely on to consistently play. So
Speaker 3: anybody that's writing them off is absolutely insane to me.
Speaker 3: It's just that there is more uncertainty there now, I
Speaker 3: think in terms of what they could look like by
Speaker 3: the time February rolls around, I.
Speaker 1: Think that uncertainty is almost guarantee to show in the
Speaker 1: regular season. I mean, you're leaning on You're leaning on
Speaker 1: a lot of young players. Like to be clear, like,
Speaker 1: I think I think Oklahoma City will finish at least
Speaker 1: five games ahead of Denver in the standings, like at
Speaker 1: least I think I think you'll probably have occ around
Speaker 1: like what fifty seven to fifty eight wins, And I
Speaker 1: think I'm with you. I think Denver is looking at
Speaker 1: the low fifties. I could argue that that's probably what
Speaker 1: Denver should do, because they looked tired at the end
Speaker 1: of last season. And the reason for that is they
Speaker 1: depend on their starting units so much. And when you
Speaker 1: depend on your starting unit so much and you lean
Speaker 1: on those guys in big minutes and they determine the
Speaker 1: outcome of every single game, there's just a lot of
Speaker 1: pressure on them and you don't get to kind of
Speaker 1: like manage their load throughout the season. And so there's
Speaker 1: a case to be made that, you know, forty eight
Speaker 1: wins is a is an outcome that should be the
Speaker 1: what happens if they take a more cautious approach to
Speaker 1: this regular season, especially with Jamal Murrays knee injury. And
Speaker 1: to your point, like, because we've seen the knee injury
Speaker 1: flare up in the reason like, none of this is
Speaker 1: realistic if Jamal's not Jamal, And like, I don't think
Speaker 1: Jamal needs to be what he was in the twenty
Speaker 1: twenty three playoff run, because that was like, that was insane,
Speaker 1: but that was that was he was playing like an
Speaker 1: he was playing like a superstar guard. But he can't
Speaker 1: be as bad as he was last year either. I
Speaker 1: do think I think one of the most important outcomes
Speaker 1: is Jokic's jump shot. I don't think people realize how
Speaker 1: important that was to them in the title run. He
Speaker 1: made thirty five threes in that title run, but it
Speaker 1: wasn't just the thirty five threes. He was doing a
Speaker 1: lot of work driving closeouts at the top of the
Speaker 1: key and against Minnesota, they were literally doing this, So like,
Speaker 1: go ahead, man, like, yeah, that was it. Shoot it,
Speaker 1: you know, And so I'm really curious to see how
Speaker 1: that goes. But yeah, I'm with you. I think I
Speaker 1: think variance is the right way to put it. I'm
Speaker 1: just I'm more emphasizing that, Like, I think people are
Speaker 1: insane to not acknowledge that that top end is still there,
Speaker 1: because I think that Jokic that shoots forty five percent
Speaker 1: from three isn't just the best player in the world.
Speaker 1: I think he's by far the best player in the world.
Speaker 1: I think that the jump shot declining is what has
Speaker 1: brought him down to the field a little bit. But
Speaker 1: I would take him head and shoulders over Luca if
Speaker 1: he's got his jump shot going in.
Speaker 3: So and maybe this is where we transition to this
Speaker 3: next group of you know teams, right, And I'm going
Speaker 3: to kind of go off book in terms of what
Speaker 3: we wanted to talk about here, but I actually do
Speaker 3: still have Minnesota head of Denver right.
Speaker 4: Now in my group.
Speaker 2: Okay, let's hear it.
Speaker 3: So I think that they again are a group of
Speaker 3: They're a team that has a different way to match
Speaker 3: up with you. And I think that the Randall Devincenzo
Speaker 3: deal for Towns actually gives them even more kind of
Speaker 3: alps to be able to do that because now instead
Speaker 3: of having Mike Conley and two bigs out there to close,
Speaker 3: you can go Dante and close with Anthony Edwards. And
Speaker 3: a big piece of is trusting Anthony Edwards to really
Speaker 3: run the offense. And this is something you and I
Speaker 3: have talked about a ton with Timberwolves. It's just their
Speaker 3: late game offense, right, what does it look like throughout
Speaker 3: the course of this full season and the playoffs?
Speaker 4: That's their biggest question. They need to figure that out.
Speaker 3: Maybe it's just Ant taking another leap and just becoming
Speaker 3: like a total assassin, right, That would be their best
Speaker 3: case scenario. But I think Julius Randall is going to
Speaker 3: do a much better approximation of Carl Town's at least
Speaker 3: on offense. They'll play different stylistically and do different things, obviously,
Speaker 3: but in terms of the actual production than what most
Speaker 3: people do. Julius Randall is in a contract year. Chris
Speaker 3: Finch is a coach that has gotten extremely high level
Speaker 3: play out of him previously, and with Rudy Gobert backing him.
Speaker 3: To me, the defense is less of a concern. I
Speaker 3: thought Carl Towns did fine on defense last year. I
Speaker 3: don't think Carl Towns is now some magically positive defender.
Speaker 3: I think that I think Towns is a better defender
Speaker 3: than Randall. To be clear, but in Towns is a
Speaker 3: better player than Julius Randall. I don't mean to say
Speaker 3: that the two are comparable. I think the difference between
Speaker 3: Towns and Randall is smaller than the addition of getting
Speaker 3: Dante DiVincenzo and the flexibility and spacing that he provides personally.
Speaker 3: And I totally understand why New York did the deal. Like,
Speaker 3: I'm not sitting here and saying it was a bad
Speaker 3: deal for New York. I have my questions, and we've
Speaker 3: talked about that previously on my show. But I think
Speaker 3: that Minnesota, and what you've talked about with Minnesota is
Speaker 3: just the overall spacing and figuring out how to make
Speaker 3: it work with Edwards and Randall together, I think that
Speaker 3: they can figure out a way to make that work.
Speaker 3: They also have enough flexibility with their picks moving forward
Speaker 3: to where if you wanted to try and do like
Speaker 3: a Randall and a first round pick for something at
Speaker 3: the deadline, that will be available to you the other
Speaker 3: guy that like I'm sure Minnesota fans don't want to
Speaker 3: hear this because they love nas Reed, but nos Reed
Speaker 3: is in expiring contract and they need to figure out
Speaker 3: what their front core of the future looks like between
Speaker 3: these three guys, because in theory, all three of these
Speaker 3: guys could leave after this year, Gobert, Randall, and nas Reed.
Speaker 3: So they have a real flexibility in terms of the
Speaker 3: way that they can attack the deadline here coming up
Speaker 3: that I think, you know, a team like Denver doesn't
Speaker 3: necessarily quite have in the same way because Denver doesn't
Speaker 3: have as many cheap contracts unless they're willing to move Brown.
Speaker 3: But Brown is now like an integral part of a
Speaker 3: team that doesn't have any depth. I would argue Minnesota
Speaker 3: right now might have the best top eight in the NBA.
Speaker 3: I think that you can certainly make that case between
Speaker 3: Conley Edwards, Dante and Nikhil Alexander Walker and then in
Speaker 3: the front core Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randall, Nasried and Rudy Gobert.
Speaker 3: I mean that's eight, you know, top is I.
Speaker 2: Don't know says right.
Speaker 1: Nikhil Alexander Walker's started, but I think he's a really
Speaker 1: good rotation player.
Speaker 3: Yeah, He's an unbelievable like defensive weapon that you can
Speaker 3: throw out there and who isn't going to kill you
Speaker 3: on offense. So I think that their depth, their ability
Speaker 3: to match up with just about any lineup that you
Speaker 3: throw out there. You can go small, Jaden McDaniels. That's
Speaker 3: the other thing of the Dante deal. I think it
Speaker 3: allows you to if you want to go small based
Speaker 3: on how another team is playing you, you can go small.
Speaker 3: Now you can go Anthony Edwards, Dante, DiVincenzo, one of
Speaker 3: Mike Conley or Nikhil Alexander Walker depending on how big
Speaker 3: or small the opposing backboard is, and Jade McDaniels at
Speaker 3: the four with Rudy at the five if you want to,
Speaker 3: or you can go super big with these bigs that
Speaker 3: you have across the board. They have just for a
Speaker 3: ways to match up. And we haven't talked about the
Speaker 3: biggest reason yetter I haven't. Anthony Edwards continues to get
Speaker 3: better and better every single season, and last year's playoff
Speaker 3: run was something special for a you know, third fourth
Speaker 3: year guy. I believe he's entering his fourth year. No,
Speaker 3: he's entering his fifth, I guess, But you know he
Speaker 3: is an absolute stud that I completely believe in him
Speaker 3: by in a playoff setting.
Speaker 1: So before I give my response, I want to ask
Speaker 1: you a follow up. Yeah, should Dante de Evenchenzo just
Speaker 1: be the starting too? I think he's a better player
Speaker 1: than Mike Conley. So you could argue Mike Conley running
Speaker 1: bench units with an off the four almost makes more sense.
Speaker 2: What do you think?
Speaker 3: So maybe this is me having reacted to the ESPN
Speaker 3: Top one hundred that came out earlier this week and
Speaker 3: see that they have Fred van Vliet at number seventy
Speaker 3: nine on that list. I think that we've gone round
Speaker 3: the bend with these small guards who like are actually
Speaker 3: tough defensively, Right, Mike's not quite as good as he
Speaker 3: once was defensively, and is not quite as good as
Speaker 3: Fred is now defensively, just you know, he's older at
Speaker 3: this point.
Speaker 4: But Mike is.
Speaker 3: Still incredible at getting a team organized, and he knocked
Speaker 3: down forty percent of his threes last year, and he
Speaker 3: fights over the top of screens like Mike Conley is
Speaker 3: still an awesome player. The case for doing what you're saying, though,
Speaker 3: and I think this is a valid case, is I
Speaker 3: would just want to get Aunt as many reps as
Speaker 3: possible running the show, and maybe I would stagger him
Speaker 3: without Mike more often, just to give him that opportunity.
Speaker 3: Whether or not you're starting Mike, you're bringing him off
Speaker 3: the bench, I guess I don't really care. But I
Speaker 3: do think there's a case for what you're saying to
Speaker 3: get Anthony Edwards more reps on the ball so that
Speaker 3: that decision making tree continues to improve, because that's that's
Speaker 3: really the last step here for Aunt is consistency off
Speaker 3: the ball. Defensively, and then the decision making tree on
Speaker 3: his drives and on his ability to you know, find
Speaker 3: the open teammate regularly as opposed to take a terrible
Speaker 3: pull up mid range jumper or a drive into the
Speaker 3: trees where it's a lower percentage shot. That's really the
Speaker 3: last step for him.
Speaker 1: In my opinion, I'm really curious to see if if
Speaker 1: Chris Finch does any kind of exploring on spacing looks.
Speaker 1: Dante plays bigger than he is because he's athletic and strong,
Speaker 1: he rebounds well for a guard. It just gets up
Speaker 1: underneath bigger players when he's on switches, and an Ant
Speaker 1: is literally built like an F one fifty. So like,
Speaker 1: I wonder if you could start to explore looks too,
Speaker 1: where you have you know, Ant kind of functioning as
Speaker 1: the three defensively, but you go with Conley, Aunt and
Speaker 1: Dante with nas at the foe next to go Bear.
Speaker 1: I wonder, and you could get into some real four
Speaker 1: out one end stuff where it's like just spread, pick
Speaker 1: and roll, but you've got deadly shooters on both corners
Speaker 1: and Dante above the break who's deadly, and you can
Speaker 1: really create some more spaced out environments for him. This
Speaker 1: is one of the issues, like because I mean, as
Speaker 1: I've watched Minnesota in preseason, their defense looks amazing, right,
Speaker 1: like like in these these spurts like that, it's a
Speaker 1: spurt against Philly where you're like, holy shit, you know
Speaker 1: they have this spurred against They had to spurt against
Speaker 1: the Lakers when Lebron and Nadi didn't play in the
Speaker 1: first game of the preseason, where like they just you
Speaker 1: could just tell Austin and Dilo and Rui, we're just
Speaker 1: having a hell of a time getting free of those guys.
Speaker 1: But Nikhil, Alexander Walker and Jada McDaniels are both guys
Speaker 1: that are like very hot and cold on offense and
Speaker 1: can in terms of the game plan. You're pretty much
Speaker 1: helping off of those guys and offering late contests and
Speaker 1: you know, going underneath picks and doing.
Speaker 2: All that kind of stuff.
Speaker 1: Right, So, like, I wonder if you could look into
Speaker 1: some more of those options and see if it develops.
Speaker 1: Ants jump shooting, it's starting to get ridiculous. Sam, He's
Speaker 1: twelve for twenty three in preseason. Again, I know it's
Speaker 1: a small sample, but like we are now on a
Speaker 1: seven month span going back to last April in three different,
Speaker 1: completely different situations between obviously some of the new guys
Speaker 1: he's playing with this year, the roster from last year,
Speaker 1: super high intense games in terms of the conference finals
Speaker 1: and conference semis. Last year, you've got the Olympic Games,
Speaker 1: where he shot well in both the exhibition games and
Speaker 1: the Olympic Games themselves. This is a roughly three hundred
Speaker 1: rep seven month span of him making jump shots at
Speaker 1: like one point two points per shot, which is like insane.
Speaker 1: Off the dribble, off the catch, left shoulder fades, right
Speaker 1: shoulder fades, like the jump shooting is ridiculous. And so
Speaker 1: that to me is where the upside is the reason
Speaker 1: why I'm still like Minnesota for me is a team that,
Speaker 1: like I just want to see them play in the
Speaker 1: regular season with Julie Randall, sure, because I'm just so
Speaker 1: interested to see how that front court shapes out with
Speaker 1: the starting group with Jade and Julius and Rudy. So like,
Speaker 1: for me, like I have them loosely ranked at seven
Speaker 1: right now in my contender rankings, but like I could
Speaker 1: see that going way up or potentially even down a
Speaker 1: little bit, because I just it's so hard for me
Speaker 1: to conceptualize it. Dane Moore does an amazing job covering
Speaker 1: the Wolves, and he had a tweet the other day
Speaker 1: where he basically broke down how like even though Julius
Speaker 1: doesn't shoot percentage wise the way that Kat does, yes,
Speaker 1: he does shoot a lot in so correct and his
Speaker 1: case was basically like he's respected and treated as a
Speaker 1: shooter even if he's not, and so maybe that materializes.
Speaker 3: So to me, it's not that he's respected and treated
Speaker 3: as a shooter, it's that you have to like get
Speaker 3: up near him and make early contact because if he drives,
Speaker 3: if you if he gets like two steps down hill
Speaker 3: into yeah, there's actually like no way that you can
Speaker 3: physically stop him. He's too strong, he's too physical. So
Speaker 3: you know, I think we talked about that on our show,
Speaker 3: that like he gets close, he gets guarded on the
Speaker 3: perimeter more than what the shooting percentages would indicate necessarily.
Speaker 3: And again, like Chris Finch knows this, He's he understands
Speaker 3: how to make Randall work. He understands how to make
Speaker 3: that tick. You know, he coached him before Randall had
Speaker 3: like the crazy outlier shooting year with the Knicks where
Speaker 3: he made like forty percent of his threes, right, So
Speaker 3: I think Finch really is like a savant in terms
Speaker 3: of spacing his big men and understanding how to make
Speaker 3: that work. And while he doesn't bring the same spacing
Speaker 3: that Karl Anthony Towns does as a shooter where you
Speaker 3: do genuinely have to be uptight on him, I do
Speaker 3: think that Randall at least gets guarded out on the
Speaker 3: perimeter in a way that maybe it's not quite as
Speaker 3: like tightly on the clothes outs as Towns is, but
Speaker 3: it is still going to be a guy that gets
Speaker 3: guarded yeah, and accounted for. I have Minnesota three right
Speaker 3: now rankings.
Speaker 2: So the best team beneath Boston and OKAC. How about that.
Speaker 3: My rankings were Boston and OKAC basically tied at one.
Speaker 3: The only reason that I didn't have Boston considerably higher
Speaker 3: was because I want to see what Porzingis's health was.
Speaker 3: That's literally the only reason. If you told me that
Speaker 3: Porzingis was going to be one hundred percent by the
Speaker 3: time April rolled around, I would have Boston clearly number one.
Speaker 3: I have Boston and Oklahoma City basically tied at one.
Speaker 3: I had Minnesota at three. I had New York at four,
Speaker 3: and I had Denver at five.
Speaker 1: We didn't even get into with Minnesota. The idea of
Speaker 1: like Julius Randall as a backup shock creator when ants
Speaker 1: off the floor. Now, that's kind of another thing to
Speaker 1: look at you in terms of like the staggering with Conley,
Speaker 1: Like Conley in like inverted town game with Julius Randall,
Speaker 1: you could see a lot of opportunities for him to
Speaker 1: get going, especially since he's going to be get guarded
Speaker 1: by smaller defenders or guys that are gonna hedge. Minnesota's
Speaker 1: gonna be interesting. They're definitely a team I'm gonna be
Speaker 1: watching a lot to start the year. Dallas, I have
Speaker 1: them as the top of my if things go right tier,
Speaker 1: I'm not as high on. I was never quite as
Speaker 1: high like I always viewed Dallas as Like last year
Speaker 1: after when we did our contender rankings before the postseason,
Speaker 1: I had Dallas, I think, if I remember correctly, I
Speaker 1: definitely had him in my top five, but they were
Speaker 1: in like that three or four spot, but I had
Speaker 1: him beneath that Boston and Denver Tier. I've always had
Speaker 1: Dallas as like the best of the teams that I
Speaker 1: don't really view as like your traditional bona fide championship contenders.
Speaker 1: You know, Clay isn't shooting the ball well in preseason,
Speaker 1: who cares he's not playing with Steph, or he's not
Speaker 1: playing with Clay and or with with Kyrie and Luca.
Speaker 1: They are running him off of a considerable amount of action.
Speaker 1: But then I get worried about whether or not that'll
Speaker 1: still be the case when those guys are back. But
Speaker 1: for them, I just it just views it looks to
Speaker 1: me like a bunch of decent role players around Kyrie
Speaker 1: and Luca, and I just don't think they have the
Speaker 1: overall firepower to contend with the teams in that top tier.
Speaker 1: Do you agree with me or you hire on them?
Speaker 3: Yeah? Look, I mean I have them at six like
Speaker 3: they're the next team for me. So I'm glad that
Speaker 3: you brought them up. Just in terms of like title, right,
Speaker 3: I don't know where they'll finish in the Western Conference.
Speaker 3: I mean I think they're in that group where it's
Speaker 3: just a total bloodbath.
Speaker 4: But in terms of.
Speaker 3: In the playoffs, like I buy this team in the
Speaker 3: playoffs by and large because I buy Luca and Kyrie
Speaker 3: in the playoffs. What I would say is you know
Speaker 3: they are a high variant team just because they've basically
Speaker 3: cycled through almost it feels like their entire role player
Speaker 3: group over the last I don't know what you want
Speaker 3: to call it ten months, basically, you know, the PJ.
Speaker 3: Washington deal, the Naji Marshall signing, losing Derek Jones Junior,
Speaker 3: losing Josh Creen, bringing in Quinton Grimes like that. Klay
Speaker 3: Thompson obviously is the biggest piece of this in terms
Speaker 3: of their role players. It's just another team like Denver
Speaker 3: that has a wide degree of variants. I think I'm
Speaker 3: a little bit less high on this group tentatively than
Speaker 3: I was going into the playoffs last year. I remember
Speaker 3: that I had Dallas like obnoxiously high when we did
Speaker 3: our condender rankings and people were like, you're out of
Speaker 3: your mind, and I was like, I don't know. I
Speaker 3: think that, you know, Luca, surrounded by spacing is a
Speaker 3: pretty good idea.
Speaker 2: You were ahead of that, you were ahead of the curve.
Speaker 1: You were talking to me, you were talking to me
Speaker 1: about Dallas and text messages like long before they started
Speaker 1: to take off too, because I was still worried about
Speaker 1: their defense, and I remember you'd be like, watch out
Speaker 1: for Dallas, man, watch out for Dallas.
Speaker 3: They're going to be good. So here's my main worry.
Speaker 3: It is the Clay side of it. I think they're
Speaker 3: going to be like utterly devastating on offense. I think
Speaker 3: that they're gonna just like Wreck Worlds on offense. If
Speaker 3: you have to basically make a decision in a Luca
Speaker 3: ballscreen with Derek Lively of Okay, Klay Thompson is on
Speaker 3: the weak side here. I have to make a decision
Speaker 3: on if I'm going to tag Derek Lively or I'm
Speaker 3: going to leave Klay Thompson in order to tag Derek Lively,
Speaker 3: or I'm just gonna leave Lively wide open at the
Speaker 3: rim for a rim run dunk. That's basically an impossible
Speaker 3: choice to me. Like, I know, like you said, Clay
Speaker 3: hasn't shot well in preseason. I don't really care. Klay Thompson,
Speaker 3: who's going to get, you know, the shot back? He
Speaker 3: always does. He always makes forty percent of his threes, so.
Speaker 1: He's hitting his open ones too. He's he's three for
Speaker 1: fifteen on jump shots, but he's three for five when
Speaker 1: he's unguarded.
Speaker 4: Yeah, Like, to me, I'm just not.
Speaker 3: That they're going to be able to devise so much
Speaker 3: many different ways to just obliterate you and ball screens now,
Speaker 3: because they have theoretically, as long as Pj's shooting from
Speaker 3: the playoffs holds up. And that's a question, like that's
Speaker 3: a totally open question that I'm here to listen to
Speaker 3: and hear out right, they could go devastating like well,
Speaker 3: I guess four out with Lively as the role man,
Speaker 3: where Luca prefers to actually have the role man. I
Speaker 3: feel like as opposed to the five that is like
Speaker 3: the floor spacer buying large. He likes to have that
Speaker 3: lab option because he likes to have that pressure being
Speaker 3: put on the defense with how excellent he is at
Speaker 3: hitting skip passes. So this is theoretically, as long as
Speaker 3: Clay is who he is, probably the best constructed offense
Speaker 3: that Luca has gotten a chance to play with in
Speaker 3: during his time. Now, the question for me is do
Speaker 3: they have enough two way players? And that's to come
Speaker 3: down to Nausey Marshall making shots. It's going to come
Speaker 3: down to Quentin Grimes being more the guy we saw
Speaker 3: in New York as opposed to the guy we saw
Speaker 3: you know in the split year between New York and Detroit,
Speaker 3: can those guys step in and be able to give
Speaker 3: them honestly, probably close to forty to fifty minutes a night.
Speaker 3: And if they can do that, I think Dallas has
Speaker 3: a very real chance again to go to the NBA Finals.
Speaker 3: It is just a real level and degree of uncertainty
Speaker 3: because it's a whole lot of new pieces being integrated.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you had mentioned week side. I've seen them use
Speaker 1: him a lot in three man action too, at the
Speaker 1: top of the key, where like staggers and stacks and
Speaker 1: stuff like that. And similarly, similarly like making the team
Speaker 1: make this, making the defense make decisions. The way you
Speaker 1: put it is really interesting to me because I think
Speaker 1: you're right. I think this is the most well constructed
Speaker 1: offense for Luca ever because he's got the best secondary
Speaker 1: shot creator he's ever had in Kyrie Irving. Jalen Brunston
Speaker 1: has become a better player than Kyrie, but when Jalen
Speaker 1: Brunson was with Dallas, he's not what Kyrie was. Right,
Speaker 1: You've got You've got this the second best shooter of
Speaker 1: all time playing the three basically in in uh Klay
Speaker 1: Thompson you've got Derek Lively, who is uniquely gifted as
Speaker 1: one of the rare athletes that is both great at
Speaker 1: vertical spacing and at making decisions on four on threes
Speaker 1: on short roles. And then PJ Washington is like kind
Speaker 1: of this interesting forward who again above the breaks shooting
Speaker 1: is interesting because he did not shoot well in the postseason,
Speaker 1: but he actually shot okay on him in the regular season,
Speaker 1: And I think PJ has good form. Like Pj's form
Speaker 1: is it looks like a nice jump shot to me,
Speaker 1: And so like there's a version of this where like
Speaker 1: he's euro above the break spacer who can also hit
Speaker 1: corner threes, also can post up mismatches down low. That
Speaker 1: unit all makes really good sense to me. On the
Speaker 1: offensive end of the floor. I am seriously concerned about
Speaker 1: them on defense though, I think I think I think
Speaker 1: they could into a let's outscore everybody team pretty quick. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and that's fun and that can win some regular season games,
Speaker 1: but then inevitably you just run into a real physical,
Speaker 1: tough playoff matchup and then things can get ugly. And
Speaker 1: so are you concerned at all about that? Do you
Speaker 1: think that this was the right trade off for Dallas
Speaker 1: to make.
Speaker 3: The answer is I don't know. In all honesty, like,
Speaker 3: I don't know the answer to that. I would like
Speaker 3: to see how Derek Jones Junior shoots this year. If
Speaker 3: Derek Jones Junior shoots thirty five thirty six percent from
Speaker 3: three this year, I'd probably have rather.
Speaker 4: Just kept him.
Speaker 3: But you know, if he's the guy where Dallas thinks that, hey,
Speaker 3: you know, we got the best that we could out
Speaker 3: of Derek Jones Junior, let's you know, not invest further
Speaker 3: in this. I would also understand that too, given his
Speaker 3: track record and history this Dallas team. Do you remember
Speaker 3: those Cavs teams with Lebron where you know they would
Speaker 3: finish like twenty eighth in defense And I don't think
Speaker 3: Dallas will be that bad in defense, but like they
Speaker 3: would just literally outsore or everybody, right. I think it
Speaker 3: was like Kyrie and Kevin Love were on those teams too.
Speaker 3: It's somewhat this build is somewhat reminiscent of that to me.
Speaker 3: Just you know, Luca is amazing. He's not quite what
Speaker 3: Lebron was, yet it is ceiling Maybe, you know, he's
Speaker 3: one of the few guys that I'll at least not
Speaker 3: rule out in the half strictly in the half court.
Speaker 1: On offense, I think you could say that he's reached
Speaker 1: Lebron's level, as like the one thing he doesn't have
Speaker 1: is just the rim pressure piece where it's just like slashing,
Speaker 1: But he's got the totally playmaking and the shot making
Speaker 1: for sure.
Speaker 3: And then they have you know, Derek Lively rim running
Speaker 3: protecting the basket. That's you know, he's a much better
Speaker 3: rim runner than Tristan Thompson was, but Tristan Thompson was
Speaker 3: a phenomenal interior defender. Right, you can just kind of
Speaker 3: look across the board, like I do think that those
Speaker 3: two situations kind of match, and you know, Lebron carried
Speaker 3: those teams to NBA Finals runs, right, and I think
Speaker 3: that Luca has a chance to do the same thing.
Speaker 3: That would you know, he did it last year and
Speaker 3: it wouldn't surprise me if he did it again this year.
Speaker 4: It's just that.
Speaker 3: Those teams do. This team has a lot of arians
Speaker 3: and has a lot of uncertainty to me.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's just so hard to tell too, just
Speaker 1: simply because once again with the clay piece, we just
Speaker 1: don't know what it's going to look like I've seen
Speaker 1: Clay be a good defender. I would even argue, like
Speaker 1: if I was trying to talk myself into it, I'd
Speaker 1: be like, Okay, Well, with Boston, they weren't even really
Speaker 1: attacking Derek Jones and PJ.
Speaker 2: Washington that much anyway. They were hunting matchups.
Speaker 1: So it's not like even if we had an elite
Speaker 1: defender on the ball, they might be looking to get
Speaker 1: Luke on switches. Anyways, It's going to be more important
Speaker 1: for us to be sharp in rotation. And the truth
Speaker 1: is that their offense fell apart because of PJ. Washington
Speaker 1: and Derek Jones Junior being unable to hit above the
Speaker 1: break threes. And so if Clay addresses that at the
Speaker 1: very least, even if you run intown problems elsewhere that
Speaker 1: you have to address, Like your offense crumbled at this
Speaker 1: one break point and you've now turned that into the
Speaker 1: second best shooter of all time. So like that, I'm
Speaker 1: not gonna I'm not gonna overthink it, Okay, all right,
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna bitch and moan to you for a
Speaker 1: second about the Lakers, and then I want you to
Speaker 1: tell me if I'm being.
Speaker 4: Toll this is great.
Speaker 1: Okay, So I want to be clear, overall, I am
Speaker 1: pleased with the JJ Reddick experience so far. I think
Speaker 1: he's bringing in structure, he's running more organized offense, he's
Speaker 1: talking about the right things, he's emphasizing the right things.
Speaker 1: There appears to be more buy in. I expect a
Speaker 1: more serious Lakers team this year. However, the Lakers are
Speaker 1: the latest and a long line of teams that is
Speaker 1: obsessively trying to increase three point volume. Okay, So I'm
Speaker 1: watching the Golden State Warriors game last night, and I'm
Speaker 1: watching them like throw the ball out the floor and
Speaker 1: semi transition and Ruby Hotchamura just jacks up and above
Speaker 1: the break three with twenty one seconds on the shot clock.
Speaker 1: And then the very next possession, Austin Reeves does the
Speaker 1: exact same thing. And then here's d Lo on the
Speaker 1: right wing taking a heavily contested three off the catch.
Speaker 1: Here's you know, Anthony Davis taking a bunch of threes
Speaker 1: in a very basic stat to put this together, last night,
Speaker 1: they took thirty four catch and shoe jump shots, and
Speaker 1: twenty seven of them were classified as guarded by Synergy.
Speaker 1: Last year, in the regular season forty nine percent of
Speaker 1: the Lakers catch and shoot shot attempts were classified as guarded,
Speaker 1: so less than half this year. So far, in pre season,
Speaker 1: sixty four percent of the Lakers catch and shoot shot
Speaker 1: attempts are classified as guarded. So I'm a big believer
Speaker 1: in increasing your shot value, and that means as many
Speaker 1: quality rim attempts as possible than as many catch and
Speaker 1: shoot quality catch and shoot three attempts as possible, and
Speaker 1: you need to try to turn any other shot attempt
Speaker 1: and as into as many more of those as possible.
Speaker 1: But I think that just jacking up contest to catch
Speaker 1: and shoot three is not a way to actually improve
Speaker 1: shot value, even if it improves your three point volume.
Speaker 2: So am I.
Speaker 1: It's obviously very small sample size, very early in the year.
Speaker 1: I've even talked about in my show. There's a confidence
Speaker 1: element in this, where like, I'm a big believer that
Speaker 1: you want to get guys confident in shooting a lot
Speaker 1: and then try to parse it back rather than have
Speaker 1: guys super scared and hesitant and then try ask them
Speaker 1: to shoot more. So like I think he might be
Speaker 1: trying to build out some confidence in this group and
Speaker 1: then try to trim some of the fat after the fact.
Speaker 1: But I am irritated with the Lakers shots selection in
Speaker 1: preseason so far. What if What has been your takeaway
Speaker 1: on the early returns on the JJ Reddick offense.
Speaker 3: This is my favorite segment that we've done so far.
Speaker 3: You're so mad about preseason basketball, right, Look, I think
Speaker 3: that your read the last thing you said, I think
Speaker 3: is the key. I think JJ's trying to like instill
Speaker 3: in them the way that they want to play and
Speaker 3: the way that they want to think almost about shock quality.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 3: Ruey throughout his career, going back to Gonzaga, right, has
Speaker 3: always been this guy that's a little bit more comfortable
Speaker 3: in the mid range. It's a little bit more comfortable
Speaker 3: like if he can, you know, even like many post
Speaker 3: bit times, like when he was with Gonzaga and Washington, Right,
Speaker 3: he needs to almost like recalibrate in some way in
Speaker 3: order to be the best version of himself that he
Speaker 3: can be for this Lakers team. Right, Austin Reeves like
Speaker 3: is a guy where I've always felt like there's more,
Speaker 3: there's a bigger propensity there to be able to up
Speaker 3: your three point volume, right, to have a chance to
Speaker 3: really be that kind of guy who can get up
Speaker 3: seven or eight threes a game realistically and make them
Speaker 3: at a thirty eight to forty two percent clip depending
Speaker 3: on the season. Right, Dangela Russell's always had no problem
Speaker 3: with this, so like we can remove him. But when
Speaker 3: darvinham was there, it felt like offense didn't really have
Speaker 3: an overarching kind of shot that it was trying to get.
Speaker 3: It felt like unorganized chaos maybe is the way I
Speaker 3: would put it. I like basketball teams that are organized
Speaker 3: chaos and they are forcing defenders to fly around and
Speaker 3: you know, make reads off of one thing and then
Speaker 3: you counter off of it on the backside. Right, I
Speaker 3: want to always see those kind of structures offensively, and
Speaker 3: it does feel like the Lakers are at least running
Speaker 3: more intriguing sets as I watch them in half court settings.
Speaker 3: I don't want to take too too much away from
Speaker 3: the overall shot quality to this point, because I think
Speaker 3: that a lot of it is trying to instill a
Speaker 3: process that is working and that is been proven frankly
Speaker 3: to be the driver of key offenses in the league.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 3: You know, you look at the three best offenses in
Speaker 3: the league, they are Boston, Oklahoma City, Indiana. Those are
Speaker 3: the three, they all take threes at an exceptionally high volume.
Speaker 3: Part of that is they take them in transition. Part
Speaker 3: of that is that they are able to get down
Speaker 3: He'll pressure toward the basket and drive and kick. I
Speaker 3: would argue that to this point, the biggest reason why
Speaker 3: the Lakers have not gotten great shots, and I've watched
Speaker 3: like a game and a half of them in preseason.
Speaker 3: I'm not going to sit here and tell you I'm
Speaker 3: an expert, is that they are not getting as much
Speaker 3: downhill pressure from Lebron because it's preseason, so he's not
Speaker 3: forcing like defenses to collapse. Nobody is really forcing defenses
Speaker 3: to collapse where you get that ball spraying out and
Speaker 3: you know, creating a shot that way. It just feels
Speaker 3: more like they are trying to instill the right processes
Speaker 3: as opposed to worrying about what the results are now
Speaker 3: because they're just not concerned about you know, what is
Speaker 3: you know, the actual is the ball going in or not?
Speaker 3: Or are are we actually winning preseason games? Does that
Speaker 3: kind of make sense?
Speaker 1: No, it doesn' record. Like I'm kind of being facetious
Speaker 1: without dramatic. I'm being I I know, I'm with you,
Speaker 1: Like The Lakers are an interesting team because they don't
Speaker 1: generate dribble penetration, but they generate a ton of rim pressure.
Speaker 1: Like this has been consistently one of the best paint
Speaker 1: offenses in the league, and it stems mostly from ball
Speaker 1: screens and rolling to the rim and cutting to the rim.
Speaker 1: That's usually where they get their rim pressure. And like
Speaker 1: they actually are a very good three point shooting team
Speaker 1: percentage wise, last year they were just very picky. It
Speaker 1: was a ton of stuff in the paint and then
Speaker 1: wide open catch and shoot threes. And I am generally
Speaker 1: of the opinion that like there are, I think that
Speaker 1: the threshold for what should be considered go point, like
Speaker 1: a go point for a catch and shoot three, needs
Speaker 1: to be moved a little bit. For the Lakers. Austin
Speaker 1: Reeves is a great example of this. Austin passes up
Speaker 1: so many ketch and shoot threes to pump, fake and
Speaker 1: drive all. He was doing that a lot in the
Speaker 1: last few years. I want to see him shoot the
Speaker 1: ball more, and I do. I do think that the
Speaker 1: majority of this is just let's breed a bunch of
Speaker 1: confidence and let's let's kind of parse things back.
Speaker 2: I also would never.
Speaker 1: In a million years take any sort of strong committed
Speaker 1: stance on something like this unless we had like a
Speaker 1: twenty game sample of regular season basketball. But it's fun
Speaker 1: to bitch and mote about in the preseason. A couple
Speaker 1: just quick notes for you, just just for fun, on
Speaker 1: the Lakers from you watching them this season, they're occupying
Speaker 1: the dunker spot a lot more than they did in
Speaker 1: last year. The specifically with guys that can shoot threes.
Speaker 1: And that's the interesting thing to me, Like, I totally
Speaker 1: get it. If it's like, Okay, Jackson hayeses on the floor,
Speaker 1: let's have him setting pin in flares out of the
Speaker 1: dunker spot to try to get skip passes for threes
Speaker 1: or kind of operating like a dunker spot to dunker spot,
Speaker 1: just kind of making yourself available on the catch.
Speaker 2: I would get it.
Speaker 1: If it's Jared Vanderbilt, Like, there are guys where I
Speaker 1: would understand that kind of concept. I'm seeing a lot
Speaker 1: of Like I'm seeing a lot of like Lebron down there,
Speaker 1: ad down there, like while the balls on the opposite
Speaker 1: running action like spotting up. I'm I'm more of the
Speaker 1: opinion that the Lakers need to occupy that spot on
Speaker 1: cuts and on rolls, but like when you're actually spacing
Speaker 1: the floor. I don't love the idea of putting a
Speaker 1: guy who can knock down threes, even Ad, because, like
Speaker 1: I'm I'm generally of opinion with Ad that he's a
Speaker 1: good shooter who stopped shooting and he had a like
Speaker 1: he shot well, he got hurt, and then he kind
Speaker 1: of just stopped taking shots. And then he always would
Speaker 1: take like two or three a game and he'd miss them.
Speaker 1: But it's like you need to take six or seven
Speaker 1: it jump shots a game in order to actually have
Speaker 1: your rhythm. And I do think that Ad is a
Speaker 1: capable shooter. I think I don't think there's any reason
Speaker 1: why he couldn't shoot thirty three percent from three if
Speaker 1: you actually let him take five shots a game out there,
Speaker 1: or three shots at the four shots a game out there,
Speaker 1: you know. So, like I want to see them create
Speaker 1: some more of that space. I have found it interesting
Speaker 1: how often they are occupying that dunker spot. The second
Speaker 1: thing that I think is interesting is last year was
Speaker 1: a ton of horn sets and a ton of like
Speaker 1: traditional five out concepts.
Speaker 2: They are running a lot.
Speaker 1: More like dribble weave this year, where like the guards
Speaker 1: are crossing in the back court and it's giving me
Speaker 1: this weird PTSD from like Sean Miller Arizona teams where
Speaker 1: that just always ends in a switch.
Speaker 3: And then I was gonna say that it feels coach K.
Speaker 3: It feels like JJ's like Coach k influence exactly.
Speaker 1: And I again, I am overwhelmingly positive on the early
Speaker 1: returns with JJ, and I'm super excited to see how
Speaker 1: it goes. But it has just been a little interesting
Speaker 1: to see. This is my one, my one last thing
Speaker 1: I'll say about the Lakers. It wasn't broke. The offense
Speaker 1: wasn't broke. They needed some They were for their last
Speaker 1: forty six games of the season last year top three.
Speaker 1: Excuse me, they were third. I think they were third
Speaker 1: in offense for the last forty six games last year.
Speaker 1: This is a good offense. They just needed some small tweaks,
Speaker 1: a little bit more, a little bit more commitment to
Speaker 1: organized action. Let's turn some of these contested twos into threes.
Speaker 1: Let's work out some of these details, and then most
Speaker 1: of it is like details on the margins, like transition defense,
Speaker 1: crashing the offensive glass, overall defensive details and game planning
Speaker 1: night to night regular season game planning, like those are
Speaker 1: the real things that I think need improvement, and so
Speaker 1: I'm just really curious to see how it goes over
Speaker 1: the rest of the season. But we have about fifteen
Speaker 1: minutes here, and there are two teams that I really
Speaker 1: want to hit before we're done, the Bucks and the Suns.
Speaker 2: Who would you rather start with?
Speaker 3: Let's go with the Bucks to start, because we talked
Speaker 3: about them briefly earlier.
Speaker 1: Okay, So the two main things that I'm noticing with
Speaker 1: the Bucks that are fascinating to me, a lot more
Speaker 1: dribble handoff stuff here in preseason instead of just straight
Speaker 1: up ball screens, which I've liked as counters to.
Speaker 2: Ball pressure.
Speaker 1: And also just kind of keeping them more in five
Speaker 1: out principles, also something I've been begging for them all.
Speaker 2: Season last year.
Speaker 1: So much more cleared side action for Giannas so that
Speaker 1: he's rolling towards the baseline instead of towards the middle
Speaker 1: of the floor and he can see everything in front
Speaker 1: of him. Dame also looks like lot sharper than he
Speaker 1: did last year. What are you liking What are you
Speaker 1: not liking from the Bucks so far?
Speaker 3: Well, I feel like a lot of those you know,
Speaker 3: you know, empty side actions that you're kind of talking
Speaker 3: about here, are like they're trying to get Johannis and
Speaker 3: Dame involved in those actions. From what I've seen right,
Speaker 3: like they're trying to build that synergy between the two
Speaker 3: of them. Early, I thought that that had a chance
Speaker 3: to be like the most devastating duo in the NBA
Speaker 3: last season, and it just never kind of developed. It
Speaker 3: felt like, you know, be it. Adrian Griffin just didn't
Speaker 3: make it a priority early in the season and they
Speaker 3: were winning games, so nobody really said anything until he
Speaker 3: got fired. And then Doc Rivers comes in, and I
Speaker 3: felt like Doc tried to do a little bit of
Speaker 3: that later in the year, but it was just too
Speaker 3: late at that point, and then Jannis got hurt and
Speaker 3: it became more difficult, right. So I think that's what
Speaker 3: I've liked most is I know there was like a
Speaker 3: storyline where, you know, somebody's I think Day might have
Speaker 3: said like he didn't work out with Giannis at all
Speaker 3: in the summer, and people took that to mean some
Speaker 3: type of thing, and I was just like, okay, guys,
Speaker 3: like let's.
Speaker 4: Just let's call him down.
Speaker 2: Let's grow up.
Speaker 4: Let's take a beat here.
Speaker 3: Look, I'm glad that they're taking a minute to try
Speaker 3: and figure that out. That's been like, honestly my biggest takeaway.
Speaker 3: The thing I will say about the Bucks beyond that
Speaker 3: is Chris Middleton is Obviously I haven't watched there the
Speaker 3: last week. Is he playing or maybe the last like
Speaker 3: five days? Is he playing yet?
Speaker 2: I don't think so. I think.
Speaker 3: I know that Doc said that, you know, we might
Speaker 3: get him back by the end of preseason. We might not, Right,
Speaker 3: Middleton is the almost like biggest He's not the biggest
Speaker 3: swing guy in the NBA this year, but he's one
Speaker 3: of the bigger swing guys in the NBA this year.
Speaker 3: Like we know a good Dame is. We know how
Speaker 3: good Giannis is. You know Brook Lopez is in a
Speaker 3: contract year and we know what he can bring defensively
Speaker 3: and as a shooter. Chris Middleton had multiple ankle series
Speaker 3: this summer. Do you know how good Chris Middleton was
Speaker 3: last year in the playoffs?
Speaker 2: Though he is insane?
Speaker 1: They're like, what twenty seven points a game on like
Speaker 1: sixty two percent through shooting or something crazy like that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, he was unbelievable. He averaged twenty five points nine rebounds,
Speaker 3: four point seven assists with a two to one assist
Speaker 3: to turnover ratio, shooting forty eight thirty five ninety from
Speaker 3: the field. In the playoffs, he was unreal against Indiana.
Speaker 3: They need that guy like That's that is the secondary
Speaker 3: creator that puts them on par with New York and
Speaker 3: potentially Boston. Maybe not on par with Boston, but who
Speaker 3: at least gets them to where they can have a
Speaker 3: fighter's chance against Boston. Right That's the absolute, unequivocal, biggest
Speaker 3: you know swing to me is can Chris Middleton come
Speaker 3: back be at one hundred percent be that guy that
Speaker 3: we saw in the playoffs last year. If he's that guy, like,
Speaker 3: the Bucks are in an interesting position. While also acknowledging
Speaker 3: that I don't trust Doc Rivers, I'm one of those
Speaker 3: people who just doesn't really buy it. But they still
Speaker 3: have the bones of a great interior defense. I think
Speaker 3: that the Gary Trent in for Malik Beasley defensive decision
Speaker 3: is a bigger upgrade than what people think.
Speaker 2: I think it's a massive upgrade.
Speaker 3: I think that Trent is like a pretty overrated defender.
Speaker 3: I think that Raptors fans will probably tell you that
Speaker 3: as well, But I think Milk Beasley's one of the
Speaker 3: worst defenders in the NBA. It drives me out of
Speaker 3: my mind watching him play. So you have that upgrade there.
Speaker 3: Wareen Prince at least knows where to be. Delon Wright
Speaker 3: can be like an energy guy that comes in for
Speaker 3: fifteen to twenty minutes a game. Let's hope right and
Speaker 3: give them, you know, ball movement, organization and some point
Speaker 3: of attack defense with his length and athleticism, even though
Speaker 3: he's a little bit older now. I overall like the
Speaker 3: structure of this Bucks team a little bit better, but
Speaker 3: it all swings on Middleton because if without Middleton, they
Speaker 3: don't really have that secondary perimeter shot creator unless Gary
Speaker 3: Trent takes another lead.
Speaker 1: I think the offense is clearly good enough. I think
Speaker 1: that another year of Damon Gianni's continuity, Dame not being
Speaker 1: as distracted.
Speaker 2: Dame has been just shooting the ball way better.
Speaker 1: So far in preseason, Giannis is kind of entering into
Speaker 1: that like like he's almost overlooked and has a little
Speaker 1: bit of that like nobody believes in me type of
Speaker 1: attitude that I like. Chris Middleton huge believer in him.
Speaker 1: On the offensive end of the floor. So much to
Speaker 1: me comes down to that Chris Middleton health piece, mainly
Speaker 1: for the defensive end, because like any sort of like
Speaker 1: a realistic championship ceiling for this team comes down to
Speaker 1: whether or not they can guard on the perimeter. And
Speaker 1: you know, I'm glad you mentioned the Gary Trade junior piece,
Speaker 1: like because I didn't thin think he was particularly good
Speaker 1: defensively last year either. I think you could even make
Speaker 1: the case he was on the lower end of the spectrum. However,
Speaker 1: he's specifically good at one thing on defense, and that's
Speaker 1: like ball pressure and poking at the basketball, which like
Speaker 1: has a tendency to speed guys up and force them
Speaker 1: to go downhill to get away from that pressure. And
Speaker 1: that feeds into the strength of the defense, which is
Speaker 1: their interior size and length and ability to cover ground. Right, So,
Speaker 1: like that Gary Trent piece, I would be so much
Speaker 1: more worried about him if he was like playing on
Speaker 1: the Knicks and Karl Anthony Towns was the center and
Speaker 1: you were asking him to like contain the ball. But
Speaker 1: like in this particular defensive scheme, I actually really like
Speaker 1: I think Gary Trent is a massive upgrade over over
Speaker 1: Malik Beasley. Dylan Wright I think is an interesting option too.
Speaker 1: We'll see how he pans out this season. But I'm
Speaker 1: with you, it so much comes down to, like, can
Speaker 1: Chris Middleton be just the rock solid two way player
Speaker 1: and ken Yannis gets to the playoffs healthy? But I
Speaker 1: think they are a textbook if things go right, contender
Speaker 1: because there's just a lot of question marks and there's
Speaker 1: a version of this for all those question marks tilt
Speaker 1: in Milwaukee's favor and suddenly they're in an Eastern Conference
Speaker 1: final series with a real chance to beat Boston and
Speaker 1: maybe we're looking at a contender. But yeah, it's just
Speaker 1: so much is up in the air. Phoenix, this is
Speaker 1: a team that you've been texting me about. You said
Speaker 1: to me in a text message the other day that
Speaker 1: you think coach Budd has worked wonders for their approach
Speaker 1: on offense. Can you break down for our audience what
Speaker 1: you've been seeing and what you like about that approach?
Speaker 3: To me, it's just like purely overall like scheme and
Speaker 3: structure to me, like they the ball is moving now.
Speaker 3: I felt like with Phoenix last year particularly, it was
Speaker 3: just so stagnant all the time. They very rarely ran
Speaker 3: and more than like one primary action with maybe like
Speaker 3: a counter off of it on the backside. This year,
Speaker 3: like it's you know, at least in preseason and preseason
Speaker 3: is where I'm willing to take like stylistic takeaways, right Like,
Speaker 3: I'm not going to sit here and tell you that, oh,
Speaker 3: I think that Ti John Salon for the Charlotte Hornets
Speaker 3: is a shooter now because he drilled six threes in
Speaker 3: a game or whatever. I'm not gonna sit here and
Speaker 3: tell you I think Ryan Dunn's like a definite shooter
Speaker 3: right now for Phoenix because he hit six threes in
Speaker 3: a game or whatever. But what I can tell you
Speaker 3: is that their ball is moving a lot better. It
Speaker 3: feels like it's just a little bit freer in terms
Speaker 3: of what they're running. It felt like they ran like
Speaker 3: a decent amount of like empty stuff last year. They're
Speaker 3: utilizing like the full court this year, which is a
Speaker 3: little bit more interesting. It feels like they're playing faster.
Speaker 3: To me, that could just be a function of the
Speaker 3: preseason by and large, but you know, it just feels
Speaker 3: a little bit quicker. It feels like the decisions are
Speaker 3: being made. I really just feel like overall, whereas last
Speaker 3: year they were a lot more happy to settle in
Speaker 3: that mid range area, and it felt like there was
Speaker 3: no accountability for stopping those guys.
Speaker 4: From doing that.
Speaker 3: That is happening much less stylistically and schematically right now.
Speaker 3: It feels like they're more willing to fire from three,
Speaker 3: which is what this offense needs. They need guys like
Speaker 3: Beale and Durant and Booker, all of whom can the
Speaker 3: guys that settle in the mid range to fire from
Speaker 3: three consistently when they find catching shoots that are open.
Speaker 3: That's just like the biggest change that you could make
Speaker 3: is not catch hold the ball to dribble pull up
Speaker 3: in the midrange. It's just catching fire, right, just let
Speaker 3: it go. And to me, there's letting it go a
Speaker 3: little bit quicker now.
Speaker 1: At the risk of putting too much stock in more
Speaker 1: small sample preseason stuff, I'm going to share some stats
Speaker 1: with you about Phoenix. Their fifth and assist percentage so
Speaker 1: far in preseasonists on over seventy three percent of their
Speaker 1: made field goals, that is considerably higher than last year.
Speaker 1: And then third and three point volume. So again, like
Speaker 1: so much of this.
Speaker 2: Too, is like.
Speaker 1: It's easy to buy in and do stuff. The same
Speaker 1: thing goes for the Lakers. It's easy to buy in
Speaker 1: and do this sort of thing in the early part
Speaker 1: of the season. I'm curious with how long that it sticks.
Speaker 1: I think it's also a big part of Phoenix's approach
Speaker 1: to make themselves tougher to guard when things slow down,
Speaker 1: meaning in the playoffs or in clutch situations, and kind
Speaker 1: of getting away from the reality that for guys like Brad,
Speaker 1: Kevin and Devin this is kind of their natural tendency
Speaker 1: as basketball players, just to operate out of the mid
Speaker 1: range and to lean on their tough shot making ability.
Speaker 1: The Ryan dun thing is really exciting. If for no
Speaker 1: other reason, then even with the shooting, which is obviously
Speaker 1: going to go up and down, he's just a big,
Speaker 1: functional athlete, which is something that they just haven't had
Speaker 1: in years past, at least not within the context of
Speaker 1: being able to do it on both ends of the
Speaker 1: floor in a way that really helps them. Frank Vogel,
Speaker 1: I think is a profoundly underrated defensive coach in the NBA,
Speaker 1: but he is He is way way way behind the
Speaker 1: times on the offensive end of the floor, and so
Speaker 1: I do think that this is a big part of
Speaker 1: just bringing a more modern approach schematically and in terms
Speaker 1: of just like order of operations and the type of
Speaker 1: shots that they're hunting. But most of it to me
Speaker 1: in terms of, like, this is why I have Phoenix,
Speaker 1: and that if things go right category because they're so small,
Speaker 1: because they're so thin, they desperately need guys like Kevin
Speaker 1: Durant and Devin Booker to like play like all defense
Speaker 1: players and to be total ass kickers and like the
Speaker 1: physical parts of the game. And that is just where
Speaker 1: I continue to be concerned about Phoenix. There's just a
Speaker 1: team like Oklahoma City with Caruso and Lou Dort flying
Speaker 1: around being physical and Isaiah Hartenstein just throwing guys around
Speaker 1: on the front line, a team like the Lakers, a
Speaker 1: team like Minnesota, just these big, strong front lines, like
Speaker 1: the Lakers have always matched up really well with Phoenix
Speaker 1: because they have to run drop coverage with the Nurkic
Speaker 1: and they just can't guard the lebron ad pick and roll.
Speaker 1: There's the Minnesota just grabs and holds their perimeter players
Speaker 1: and just strangles them in space. And so let me
Speaker 1: pitch it back to you like this, we both agree
Speaker 1: Mike Budenholzer is bringing better offensive organization and approach to Phoenix.
Speaker 1: Where do you have them in your rankings? How do
Speaker 1: you feel about them as a championship contender?
Speaker 3: So right around you them at ten, it looks like
Speaker 3: like ten. That's I'm trying to like do the math
Speaker 3: in my head right now. I had Philly ahead of them.
Speaker 3: I had certainly Minnesota ahead of them. I had the
Speaker 3: Bucks ahead of them, probably like that eight to eleven
Speaker 3: range something like that. Yeah, So look, I'm worried about
Speaker 3: the defense. What I will say is, like, again, I
Speaker 3: truly hope that the Ryan dunshooting thing is real, like
Speaker 3: that that is Dun. Seriously, if Ryan can shoot thirty
Speaker 3: six percent from three this year on four attempts per game,
Speaker 3: he is an immediately like exceptionally valuable player. Because I'm
Speaker 3: not exaggerating this to you, Jason, he is one of
Speaker 3: arguably could be the best defensive wing I have evaluated
Speaker 3: pre draft. Really is unbelievable as a havoc creator defensive
Speaker 3: playmaker on that end, and he has experienced playing at
Speaker 3: the big position. I honestly wonder if there is a
Speaker 3: world where you could do some weird things where like
Speaker 3: he's flying over, rotating across from the weak side, and
Speaker 3: play lineups that are like him and KD at the
Speaker 3: four or five with Booker and Beale and Grayson Allen,
Speaker 3: and like you have this weird, big, switchable ish group
Speaker 3: that can hopefully get enough rim protection with him like
Speaker 3: rotating across and like being like a havo guy, Like
Speaker 3: he averaged over two blocks a game last year at
Speaker 3: Virginia playing that like slow dragout style of basketball that
Speaker 3: Virginia plays, So that that's like a ways away. Still
Speaker 3: probably that might not be this year that that happens.
Speaker 3: But if he can shoot, he is truly a ready
Speaker 3: made defender.
Speaker 2: Like I Sue, I think he looks good.
Speaker 3: And I'm telling you, like last year, do you know
Speaker 3: how many shots per game he took in his last
Speaker 3: fourteen games?
Speaker 2: How many he.
Speaker 3: Took five per game in college? Like he had no
Speaker 3: confidence last year on offense, Like there were games where
Speaker 3: he didn't look at the rim really and like didn't
Speaker 3: even really think about trying to score. He looks like
Speaker 3: a completely different player than what we saw late in
Speaker 3: his career offensively at Virginia, And I couldn't be more
Speaker 3: excited for him, because literally every single person that's ever
Speaker 3: been around Ryan Don will tell you like, unbelievable dude,
Speaker 3: just incredibly good guy.
Speaker 4: I couldn't be more.
Speaker 3: Excited to see if this ends up being real because
Speaker 3: if it is, if it is, he's a top one
Speaker 3: hundred NBA player at some point, not this year, but
Speaker 3: like he is for sure a top one hundred NBA
Speaker 3: player that makes nine figures in his life. I really
Speaker 3: hope the confidence sticks, because if it does, that sons
Speaker 3: have something very very special here.
Speaker 1: I remember we talked a lot about Ryan Dunn around
Speaker 1: the draft, and I remember when I was scouting him
Speaker 1: that that end of the floor was crazy. I just
Speaker 1: I don't even like I remember watching him on the
Speaker 1: offensive end and he looked so incredibly out of place,
Speaker 1: and it is kind of a remarkable transformation. And it's
Speaker 1: clear that he spent all summer with Kevin, which was
Speaker 1: a very good idea. But that's high praise from Sam,
Speaker 1: who I think is the best person covering the draft
Speaker 1: in the business, and so your son's fans should be excited.
Speaker 1: The one team we skipped over, I'll just pitch it
Speaker 1: to you for like, do you have thirty seconds and
Speaker 1: how you feel about Philly.
Speaker 3: So Philly is just a team that we need to see.
Speaker 3: I feel like they have all new pieces except for
Speaker 3: Tyres and Joel and look, I think ty Resee. I
Speaker 3: said this on my show earlier this week. I think
Speaker 3: ty Res is going to be their most important player
Speaker 3: this year. I mean, maybe not most important. I think
Speaker 3: he's going to be their most valuable overall player this year,
Speaker 3: just because Joel is seemingly going to miss time, like
Speaker 3: they're not going to play him in back to backs.
Speaker 3: He's gonna, you know, try and get healthy for the playoffs,
Speaker 3: which is the way that they should handle it. I
Speaker 3: think ty Resee makes all NBA this year. I think
Speaker 3: he is going to take in another leap from what
Speaker 3: we have already seen from him previously. Paul George is
Speaker 3: a big addition for them because he allows them to
Speaker 3: keep the offense afloat when Joel is out, having both
Speaker 3: him and ty Resee being able to stagger them potentially
Speaker 3: you don't have to have, you know, fourteen minutes a
Speaker 3: game where ty Resee isn't out there and you just
Speaker 3: have no way to generate offense, right like Tobias Harris
Speaker 3: generating offense was not something that worked well as all
Speaker 3: Philadelphia fans value so much better team, very interesting team.
Speaker 3: I do have them ahead of Phoenix because I think
Speaker 3: if it all goes right, you can very easily make
Speaker 3: a choice that they just have more talent, right, but
Speaker 3: a lot of uncertainty, that's the reality. And look like
Speaker 3: the last team that we haven't mentioned here, and they
Speaker 3: will be very angry if we don't mention them. Would
Speaker 3: I miss the Eastern Conference finalists from last year, the Indiana.
Speaker 1: Pas Yes, the Indiana Pacers the NBA's worst defense in
Speaker 1: preseasons so far.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so they don't look great on that end, but
Speaker 3: Zachi ed just murdered them and just like took their soul.
Speaker 3: What else say is this? They are unbelievable on offense, Yeah,
Speaker 3: they are. And they figured out the defense late in
Speaker 3: the year last year to a passable level with Siakam
Speaker 3: and Miles Turner playing together and then getting them hard
Speaker 3: to be able to guard a little bit. Nate Smith,
Speaker 3: you know, has always been like pretty solid against wings defensively,
Speaker 3: Nemhar does a solid job on guards.
Speaker 4: There are worlds where I.
Speaker 3: Can see this working for them again, Like their variance
Speaker 3: is going to be wide because they're a you know,
Speaker 3: top three offense and a charitably, let's say they could
Speaker 3: finish you know, sixteenth, seventeenth in defense, but more likely
Speaker 3: than not, maybe like twentieth. Their games are just gonna
Speaker 3: have a little bit more variance. But this is like
Speaker 3: genuinely an unstoppable offense. When they're on the court and
Speaker 3: when ty Reese is running the show, they do at
Speaker 3: least like deserve our respect in some way, shape or
Speaker 3: form or you know, we didn't mention Orlando or Cleveland
Speaker 3: as well. Orlando is going to be a top three
Speaker 3: defense probably this year. They're fantastic. I just don't know
Speaker 3: that they have the shot creation yet to make it
Speaker 3: work in the playoffs at this point.
Speaker 2: The way they play on offense.
Speaker 3: Totally agree the KCP addition is intriguing because this team
Speaker 3: was amazing last year with Gary Harris in the lineup,
Speaker 3: and KCP is like elevated Gary Harris. And then oh,
Speaker 3: by the way, they now get slack Gary Harris off
Speaker 3: the bench, which is going to allow them to be
Speaker 3: like a little bit more functional as opposed to having
Speaker 3: Joe Ingles, you know coming off the bench for them,
Speaker 3: who looked, you know, all due respect to my Australian
Speaker 3: brethren here a bit washed. H. I love this Orlando team.
Speaker 3: I think they're going to be really I think they
Speaker 3: might win fifty games in the regular season. I just
Speaker 3: don't know what it's going to look like in the
Speaker 3: playoffs for them, so I can't quite put them into this.
Speaker 3: You know, top ten is contender group.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the offense is just so brutally bad. You know,
Speaker 1: You've You've always been a person who's a little lower.
Speaker 2: On Pallo than I am.
Speaker 1: And I've watched him in preseason and like and as
Speaker 1: I rewatched the postseason games as part of my prep
Speaker 1: for them. Hallo does play a big role in the
Speaker 1: lack of ball movement. He is a slow decision maker
Speaker 1: who is incredibly methodical, and he tends to just kind
Speaker 1: of stand and stare with the ball in his hands
Speaker 1: for a while. Indiana, well, this is the last thing.
Speaker 1: I'll quick pitch to you and then we'll be out
Speaker 1: here for the day. Indiana has good defensive personnel. Why
Speaker 1: are they so bad?
Speaker 2: Like?
Speaker 1: Nemhart is good, Nie Smith is good, comes good, Turner's good.
Speaker 2: What do you think?
Speaker 1: Yeah, McConnell fights, like do you do you. I even
Speaker 1: what's this, I'm blanking on his name, the the like
Speaker 1: six five sixty six, uh bench wing that can shoot
Speaker 1: for the matther No, not Ben Mathering, the other that
Speaker 1: he's a old taller. It's killing Ben Shephard, Ben Shepherd.
Speaker 1: I think Ben Shephard competes defensively as decent length like
Speaker 1: they've they've got some guys like I.
Speaker 2: Do you think it's just because do you.
Speaker 1: Think it's like a Carlisle thing or do you think
Speaker 1: it's like a oh we play with such an absurd
Speaker 1: pace that the guys just don't have the legs for defense.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's pace. When I watch them, I
Speaker 3: just think it's pace. And I will say though that
Speaker 3: like they didn't have Sacam all year last year, and
Speaker 3: the defense took a big leap better for sure. So yeah,
Speaker 3: to me, it's like a depth question, and it's a
Speaker 3: Seacam hopefully getting there and being consistently available defensively and
Speaker 3: being the guy that you know, we all think he
Speaker 3: can be on defense. So look, I think we would
Speaker 3: just be remiss not to mention them, if only because
Speaker 3: I do think that they could work in the playoffs. Again,
Speaker 3: Halliburt and running the show and making elite level decisions.
Speaker 3: Sam being able to be that kind of half court
Speaker 3: you know, they're in full transition, you know forward who
Speaker 3: can guard on the perimeter against certain guys, and who
Speaker 3: can create shots from the mid post and create shots
Speaker 3: from the wing and attack and then you know you
Speaker 3: can play five out with Turner right, Like they have
Speaker 3: real options, is all I'm saying here. Well, yeah, they
Speaker 3: have a scheme that really I think flows upward when
Speaker 3: it comes to successful playoff runs.
Speaker 1: No, I agree with you, And it was more I
Speaker 1: think I think we I think between Cleveland and Orlando
Speaker 1: and and Indiana, we we hit the teams that were
Speaker 1: on the fringes pretty well.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would have I would have Indiana honestly ahead
Speaker 3: of Memphis.
Speaker 4: And interesting contender series.
Speaker 2: Okay, that's that. Yeah, that's interesting.
Speaker 4: I mean, look, they've.
Speaker 1: Familiar, like in practice, like they've actually made it, they've
Speaker 1: done it. Tell us about where we can find your
Speaker 1: work and anything in particular that you've been working on
Speaker 1: as of late.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I go to the Game three podcasts with Sam
Speaker 3: Cini over on YouTube.
Speaker 2: Go there.
Speaker 3: On the many podcasting platforms that you listen to shows
Speaker 3: on uh do some breakdowns on draft prospects over on
Speaker 3: the YouTube channel as well. I've done some of the
Speaker 3: European guys already. Uh Ben Saraf is the recent one
Speaker 3: I did in ISRAELI kind of leadish six foot five guard.
Speaker 4: That's intriguing. You know.
Speaker 3: I've done Alex Towey and Roko Zakarski over here in Australia.
Speaker 3: As the college season gets going, I'll do a bunch
Speaker 3: more of those breakdowns and we'll have some fun with it.
Speaker 3: Once the NBA season gets gone. I'm excited to do
Speaker 3: some of those on the rookies, Like I'm really excited
Speaker 3: to see what Ree Shepperd looks like because he's looked
Speaker 3: amazing in preseason so far. And then Edie has been
Speaker 3: really fun, as we mentioned earlier. So go to the
Speaker 3: Game three podcast, go to the athletic as well. Keep
Speaker 3: me employed over there, that'd be great. I enjoy working there.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 3: I've done a mock draft over there recently, and I
Speaker 3: think that CJ. Moore and I might be working on
Speaker 3: a top twenty five college basketball thing as well, because
Speaker 3: I end up engaged on that front too because of
Speaker 3: the draft stuff. So NBA stuff will come at some
Speaker 3: point once that season starts. But I can't write about
Speaker 3: preseason basketball.
Speaker 2: I don't blame you.
Speaker 1: I'm yeah, I'm gonna be picking your brain a little
Speaker 1: bit more of the season because the volume is gonna
Speaker 1: have me do a weekly college basketball segment.
Speaker 2: So that should be well, that should be interesting.
Speaker 1: We got we got a much more stacked college basketball field.
Speaker 1: My Arizona Wildcats are ranked ten. We have a Cooper
Speaker 1: Cooper flag making his college debut with two which should
Speaker 1: be fun.
Speaker 4: All right, guys, have you have you real quick? Have
Speaker 4: you watched VJ. Edgecomb yet?
Speaker 2: No? Who's that? He?
Speaker 4: Is it Baylor? Okay, you're going to You're going to
Speaker 4: like him?
Speaker 2: Is you forward?
Speaker 3: He is a six foot four ish let's go with
Speaker 3: guard who has more like vertical pop than probably anybody
Speaker 3: in college basketball this year. It's from the Bahamas. He
Speaker 3: played on the Bahamian national team when they were trying
Speaker 3: to make the Olympics this past summer. Already he is
Speaker 3: he's a dude that you are. You're he's like a
Speaker 3: leader out there. Like I've kind of talked to, you know,
Speaker 3: some folks down there and they're just like he's just
Speaker 3: like already just so good at being our leaders a
Speaker 3: freshman this year, So yeah, he's a he's a good one.
Speaker 2: I'm excited.
Speaker 1: See twelve basketball is gonna be really fun this year
Speaker 1: with the Conference RAE alignment. It's gonna be fun. The
Speaker 1: Baylor didn't move out of the Big twelve, did they?
Speaker 1: Are they sell in the Big I think.
Speaker 3: So eight people just came out. There are I think
Speaker 3: five teams in the top ten from the Big ten
Speaker 3: or Big twelve.
Speaker 1: I saw I saw this random reel on Instagram the
Speaker 1: other day of a poll of a bunch of coaches
Speaker 1: asking which team had the most resources for nil and
Speaker 1: everyone thinks it was going to be Duke or Kansas
Speaker 1: or Kentucky or someone like that. The name that all
Speaker 1: the coaches whough out was Arkansas. They're the team that
Speaker 1: has all the money.
Speaker 3: The three right now that people talk about. I'm not
Speaker 3: saying that this is the reality. The three that people
Speaker 3: talk about right now within the industry are Arkansas BYU
Speaker 3: in Kansas State.
Speaker 2: Hy you interesting? Yeah? Wow? How about that?
Speaker 3: They're all recruiting some of the best players in the
Speaker 3: country right now pretty heavily.
Speaker 1: That's super fascinating, especially within the context of just how
Speaker 1: the entire sport is changing. All right, Well, I could
Speaker 1: talk to you all day, but we'll call it a
Speaker 1: day for right now. Sam, I appreciate you giving us
Speaker 1: your time. Everyone, I appreciate for supporting the show. I
Speaker 1: have one more show this week on Friday, we're gonna
Speaker 1: do a season preview on the Boston Celtics, as well
Speaker 1: as probably hit another preseason game or two, and then
Speaker 1: literally next Tuesday live on YouTube after the final buzzer
Speaker 1: of Lakers timber Wolves should be a really fun one.
Speaker 1: I appreciate you guys for supporting the show and for
Speaker 1: rocking with me. And we'll see you guys next time.
Speaker 2: The volume