1 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:08,320 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:14,360 Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the 3 00:00:14,440 --> 00:00:16,279 Speaker 2: top stories of the coming week from our day Break 4 00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:19,720 Speaker 2: anchors all around the world, and straight to handle the program, 5 00:00:20,040 --> 00:00:22,240 Speaker 2: look at key data in the US how it's going 6 00:00:22,280 --> 00:00:25,400 Speaker 2: to impact FED policy going forward. I'm John Tucker in 7 00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:25,880 Speaker 2: New York. 8 00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:28,520 Speaker 1: I'm Carolyn Hepker here in London, where we're looking ahead 9 00:00:28,520 --> 00:00:31,720 Speaker 1: to the European Central Bank's upcoming rate setting meeting. 10 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:34,760 Speaker 3: I'm Derek Krisner looking at the rollout of the iPhone 11 00:00:34,800 --> 00:00:41,960 Speaker 3: sixteen and what it means for Asia. 12 00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:47,960 Speaker 4: That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 13 00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:50,479 Speaker 4: E Loove on three Own, New York, Bloomberg ninety nine 14 00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:53,920 Speaker 4: to one, Washington, DC, Bloomberg one O six one, Boston, 15 00:00:53,960 --> 00:00:58,760 Speaker 4: Bloomberg nine sixty, San Francisco, DAB Digital Radio, London, Sirius 16 00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 4: XM one nineteen and around the world on Bloomberg Radio 17 00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:04,520 Speaker 4: dot com and via the Bloomberg Business App. 18 00:01:08,480 --> 00:01:11,320 Speaker 2: Hi Everyboddy. I'm John Tucker, and let's start today's program 19 00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:13,840 Speaker 2: with the key data in the US. We're going to get, 20 00:01:13,880 --> 00:01:17,640 Speaker 2: among other things, CPI data. Wednesday at eight thirty Wall 21 00:01:17,680 --> 00:01:20,039 Speaker 2: Street time. I was the data going to pack the 22 00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:23,120 Speaker 2: FED at its September meeting, and for more insight, we're 23 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:29,160 Speaker 2: joined by Stuart Paul, us economists with Bloomberg Economics. Doctor Paul. Anyway, 24 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:33,240 Speaker 2: I was all prepared to talk about inflation CPI. That's 25 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:35,640 Speaker 2: the back seat, maybe even the trunk of the car, 26 00:01:35,760 --> 00:01:38,440 Speaker 2: and in the driver's seat, I'm going to gas his 27 00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:39,840 Speaker 2: jobs data right. 28 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:42,840 Speaker 5: Right, So we have jobs data that just we have 29 00:01:42,959 --> 00:01:45,000 Speaker 5: jobs data in hand that just came out on the 30 00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:48,000 Speaker 5: sixth Then they surprised the consensus to the downside, showing 31 00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:51,240 Speaker 5: just one hundred and forty two thousand jobs added. This 32 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:55,200 Speaker 5: is other than the inflation report, basically the last important 33 00:01:55,280 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 5: data set that the FED is going to have in hand. 34 00:01:58,000 --> 00:02:00,240 Speaker 5: And with the labor market to terror rating as much 35 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:02,600 Speaker 5: as it has, with the unemployment rate climbing to four 36 00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:06,080 Speaker 5: point two percent, the FED is shifting its focus from 37 00:02:06,080 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 5: inflation to the labor market. 38 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:11,640 Speaker 2: That's what one hundred and forty two thousand jobs created, 39 00:02:11,800 --> 00:02:16,280 Speaker 2: nonfarm jobs. That doesn't sound too bad. We just reverting 40 00:02:16,680 --> 00:02:19,080 Speaker 2: back to where we were pre pandemic. 41 00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:21,880 Speaker 5: Well, so you're right in a in a typical set 42 00:02:21,919 --> 00:02:26,079 Speaker 5: of circumstances. The pace of hiring that would be consistent 43 00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:29,320 Speaker 5: with a steady unemployment rate is about one hundred thousand 44 00:02:29,400 --> 00:02:31,359 Speaker 5: jobs per month, So one hundred and forty two could 45 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:35,160 Speaker 5: sound pretty good by comparison, But with the surgeon immigration, 46 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:39,200 Speaker 5: with people considering holding off on retirement, with the unemployment 47 00:02:39,280 --> 00:02:41,440 Speaker 5: rate rising, we need to find a way to reconcile 48 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:44,880 Speaker 5: what we're seeing from unemployment and with what we're seeing 49 00:02:45,240 --> 00:02:47,200 Speaker 5: in terms of hiring. So one hundred and forty two 50 00:02:47,240 --> 00:02:49,920 Speaker 5: thousand just isn't enough to do the trick anymore. We 51 00:02:49,960 --> 00:02:53,000 Speaker 5: are seeing the labor market cooling. We see just about 52 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:57,120 Speaker 5: one point one job openings per unemployed worker. That's down 53 00:02:57,160 --> 00:03:00,960 Speaker 5: from about one point two openings per unemployed work pre COVID. 54 00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:03,919 Speaker 5: So the labor market is undoubtedly cooling despite what might 55 00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:06,240 Speaker 5: seem to be a decent pace of hiring. 56 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:10,800 Speaker 2: The Federal Reserve has this dual mandate full employment and 57 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:15,320 Speaker 2: what stable prices, or however they phrase it. It's really difficult, 58 00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:17,760 Speaker 2: I would imagine to kind of thread that needle. 59 00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:21,120 Speaker 5: It certainly is. They are two different prongs of the 60 00:03:21,200 --> 00:03:24,120 Speaker 5: dual mandate, as you said, maximum employment of price stability. 61 00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:28,560 Speaker 5: Sometimes those two things can be in conflict, and right 62 00:03:28,600 --> 00:03:31,560 Speaker 5: now the FED is at one of those moments in 63 00:03:31,600 --> 00:03:36,080 Speaker 5: time where it has to balance their two priorities. Sure, 64 00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:40,120 Speaker 5: it wants to really suffocate inflation and ensure that it's 65 00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:43,240 Speaker 5: on a sustainable path to the two percent target, but 66 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:46,120 Speaker 5: the labor market is showing a bit of fragility. We 67 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:49,600 Speaker 5: are seeing the unemployment rate on an upward trend, and 68 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:52,119 Speaker 5: as we saw in the July data, the sum rule 69 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:55,000 Speaker 5: had been triggered, which typically poortends further rises in the 70 00:03:55,080 --> 00:03:55,840 Speaker 5: unemployment rate. 71 00:03:56,120 --> 00:04:00,760 Speaker 2: Although that's come into question by claudiasamer itself. That's like, 72 00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 2: you know, but still contends that there is now not 73 00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:09,560 Speaker 2: necessarily recession in the offing. But the I think she 74 00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:12,040 Speaker 2: put it a risk now of recession. 75 00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:15,040 Speaker 5: That's right. Even with Claudia saying that there's a risk 76 00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:17,359 Speaker 5: of recession, I would still think that she's a little 77 00:04:17,360 --> 00:04:20,520 Speaker 5: bit more optimistic than we are here in Bloomberg Economics. 78 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:22,400 Speaker 2: Oh I, I'm. 79 00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:25,960 Speaker 5: Sorry to say, but we think that the outlook is 80 00:04:26,000 --> 00:04:29,719 Speaker 5: a bit more weak than Claudia herself seems to think, 81 00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:32,200 Speaker 5: and we think that risks are far more notable than 82 00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:35,480 Speaker 5: Claudia seems to think. Consumers have just been running down 83 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:38,560 Speaker 5: their savings they've been saving. They save that a two 84 00:04:38,560 --> 00:04:41,120 Speaker 5: point nine percent pace, So that's two point nine percent 85 00:04:41,120 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 5: of their disposable income went to savings. That's exceptionally low. 86 00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:46,560 Speaker 2: Should we should point in Consumer spending is like the 87 00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:49,960 Speaker 2: biggest thing in the economy right now. That's what powers 88 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:50,839 Speaker 2: the US economy. 89 00:04:50,920 --> 00:04:53,680 Speaker 5: Definitely, that's what powers the US economy. And it's consumers 90 00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:55,919 Speaker 5: willingness to spend that can propagate inflation. 91 00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:57,680 Speaker 2: But there's a credit card. 92 00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:01,000 Speaker 5: That's right, there is a credit card, But I don't know. 93 00:05:01,000 --> 00:05:03,440 Speaker 2: Are they running up debt? And like, does anybody care? 94 00:05:03,480 --> 00:05:03,960 Speaker 4: If they are? 95 00:05:04,120 --> 00:05:08,160 Speaker 5: They're running up debt. They're also seeing rising defaults, and 96 00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:11,200 Speaker 5: so we could expect credit availability to become a little 97 00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:16,080 Speaker 5: bit less available. And look, interest costs are also starting 98 00:05:16,080 --> 00:05:18,680 Speaker 5: to weigh on consumers, especially consumers at the lower end 99 00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:19,600 Speaker 5: of the income distribution. 100 00:05:20,000 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 2: All right, So that brings up the question that everybody's 101 00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:26,120 Speaker 2: asking the Federal Reserve. It's kind of baked in the 102 00:05:26,160 --> 00:05:29,840 Speaker 2: cake that the next meeting this month they're going to 103 00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:33,560 Speaker 2: cut rates. But the question is how much, by a 104 00:05:33,640 --> 00:05:35,280 Speaker 2: quarter of a percent or half a percent. 105 00:05:35,839 --> 00:05:40,280 Speaker 5: The odds slightly favor, just slightly favor a quarter percentage 106 00:05:40,279 --> 00:05:40,799 Speaker 5: point cut. 107 00:05:40,839 --> 00:05:43,080 Speaker 2: But why, I mean, why not just go all the way? 108 00:05:43,120 --> 00:05:45,440 Speaker 2: We know, as you just said, things are slowing down. 109 00:05:46,279 --> 00:05:49,080 Speaker 5: It seems to be that the fear among policymakers is 110 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:52,280 Speaker 5: that if they start with a half percentage point cut, 111 00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:54,359 Speaker 5: markets are going to expect that they are going to 112 00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:57,440 Speaker 5: be further half percentage point cuts coming down the line, 113 00:05:57,480 --> 00:06:02,520 Speaker 5: particularly in October, November and then December. And if markets 114 00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:07,760 Speaker 5: start baking in that expectation, financial conditions loosen. And it actually, 115 00:06:08,279 --> 00:06:12,480 Speaker 5: perhaps counterintuitively means that by signaling that things are slowing 116 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:16,520 Speaker 5: down and cutting rates rapidly at the start of the cycle, 117 00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:20,360 Speaker 5: they'll then have to maintain a more restrictive stance because 118 00:06:20,400 --> 00:06:24,599 Speaker 5: financial conditions have loosened. So the more cautious approach might 119 00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:27,839 Speaker 5: just be to try to not scare the markets by 120 00:06:28,279 --> 00:06:30,760 Speaker 5: doing this quarter point cut first, and if they need 121 00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:32,720 Speaker 5: to catch up later, they'll catch up later. 122 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:36,160 Speaker 2: Okay, so the CPI report coming on consumer pricing into that. 123 00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:39,400 Speaker 2: Do I care about inflation anymore? For its like a 124 00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:44,000 Speaker 2: couple of years. We're all afraid of inflation, including the FED. Look, 125 00:06:44,040 --> 00:06:45,120 Speaker 2: I'm gonna just forget it. 126 00:06:45,279 --> 00:06:47,760 Speaker 5: I'm an economist and I can't help but care about 127 00:06:47,800 --> 00:06:51,600 Speaker 5: inflation forever and always. We are expecting the pace of 128 00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:55,320 Speaker 5: headline and core inflation to remain about steady on a 129 00:06:55,360 --> 00:06:58,520 Speaker 5: monthly basis zero point two percent for both the headline 130 00:06:58,560 --> 00:07:01,760 Speaker 5: and core on a month on month BABS base effects 131 00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:05,400 Speaker 5: will allow the annual pace of CPI inflation to fall 132 00:07:05,440 --> 00:07:08,359 Speaker 5: to two point six percent from two point nine. But 133 00:07:08,960 --> 00:07:12,960 Speaker 5: if you combine the line items from CPI with the 134 00:07:13,000 --> 00:07:16,080 Speaker 5: line items from the Producer Price Index, also to be 135 00:07:16,120 --> 00:07:19,880 Speaker 5: released next week, and you take into consideration the negative 136 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:24,400 Speaker 5: base effect in the PCE price Index, which is what 137 00:07:24,480 --> 00:07:27,400 Speaker 5: matters most for the FED, the pace of disinflation is 138 00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:30,200 Speaker 5: going to stall pretty notably. So that's one of the 139 00:07:30,240 --> 00:07:32,360 Speaker 5: reasons why we expect the Fed to be a little 140 00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:35,600 Speaker 5: bit cautious in that pace of cutting. Why odds just 141 00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:38,840 Speaker 5: slightly favor that twenty five basis point cut in September 142 00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:40,240 Speaker 5: rather than the fifty. 143 00:07:40,160 --> 00:07:43,080 Speaker 2: All right, great explanation, I appreciate it. Thanks to Stuart 144 00:07:43,120 --> 00:07:47,120 Speaker 2: paul Us, economist with Bloomberg Economics. Well, it is a 145 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:50,480 Speaker 2: big week in politics ahead. The first president to debate 146 00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:54,119 Speaker 2: between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, 147 00:07:54,160 --> 00:07:57,280 Speaker 2: set for Tuesday at Bloomberg Television and Radio is going 148 00:07:57,320 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 2: to have special coverage of this ABC News debate along 149 00:08:00,640 --> 00:08:04,720 Speaker 2: with a global simulcast starting at eight pm Wall Street Time. 150 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 2: And for more on what to expect, we are joined 151 00:08:07,320 --> 00:08:11,600 Speaker 2: now by Laura Davison, Bloomberg Politics Editor. Nice to be 152 00:08:11,760 --> 00:08:14,520 Speaker 2: with us, appreciate it. So this is going to be 153 00:08:14,520 --> 00:08:18,960 Speaker 2: a reasonable exchange of differing ideas or a wild free 154 00:08:19,000 --> 00:08:19,400 Speaker 2: for all. 155 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:22,640 Speaker 6: The idea is that it's a reasonable exchange, but if 156 00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:26,280 Speaker 6: past is any precedent, it may be a little more raucous. 157 00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:30,000 Speaker 6: There have been some measures put in place to sort 158 00:08:30,040 --> 00:08:32,960 Speaker 6: of turn down the temperature on the debate. The first 159 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:35,240 Speaker 6: is that there will be no studio audience. It will 160 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:38,120 Speaker 6: just be the candidates and the moderators in the room, 161 00:08:38,240 --> 00:08:40,640 Speaker 6: so they won't have any sort of input from you know, 162 00:08:40,760 --> 00:08:42,440 Speaker 6: folks on the ground in terms. 163 00:08:42,280 --> 00:08:46,200 Speaker 2: Of food, screaming, booing, and cheering, okay correct. 164 00:08:46,720 --> 00:08:48,880 Speaker 6: The other thing, and this has been a real point 165 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:52,520 Speaker 6: of contention in recent weeks, is that candidates mics will 166 00:08:52,520 --> 00:08:55,679 Speaker 6: only be live when they are speaking. When they are 167 00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:57,520 Speaker 6: not speaking, when a candidate's being when a question is 168 00:08:57,520 --> 00:09:00,679 Speaker 6: being addressed to another candidate that then will have their 169 00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:03,440 Speaker 6: mic muted. So this is you know, intended to uh, 170 00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:05,560 Speaker 6: you know, not have some of the you know, the 171 00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:08,600 Speaker 6: cross talk and the talking over one another that we've seen, 172 00:09:08,679 --> 00:09:11,600 Speaker 6: you know, particularly in twenty twenty and debate with with 173 00:09:11,640 --> 00:09:13,640 Speaker 6: Biden and Trump, we saw it. 174 00:09:13,760 --> 00:09:15,800 Speaker 2: Did one campaign or the other insist on this or 175 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:18,120 Speaker 2: they both agreed. I mean, they obviously both agreed to it, 176 00:09:18,160 --> 00:09:20,040 Speaker 2: but was one more persistent about it. 177 00:09:20,640 --> 00:09:22,920 Speaker 6: Well, there's a little twist here. So Originally, when Biden 178 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:24,360 Speaker 6: was still in the race, this is one of the 179 00:09:24,360 --> 00:09:26,280 Speaker 6: things that his campaign put forward and said, look, we 180 00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:29,120 Speaker 6: want these muted mics, and at the time Trump resisted it, 181 00:09:29,520 --> 00:09:31,320 Speaker 6: but ultimately agreed to it. And that was the case 182 00:09:31,320 --> 00:09:34,360 Speaker 6: in the in the June debate. Then when Harris became 183 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:37,520 Speaker 6: the candidate, her campaign said, no, actually we don't want 184 00:09:37,600 --> 00:09:39,600 Speaker 6: muted mics. We think that this is actually an advantage 185 00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:42,559 Speaker 6: to us to be able to to interject or also, 186 00:09:42,640 --> 00:09:44,360 Speaker 6: you know for Trump, he'll have like sort of less 187 00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:47,000 Speaker 6: guardrails on him, less discipline, and he'll be able to 188 00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:49,720 Speaker 6: sort of interject. So the Harris campaign really pushed to 189 00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:53,160 Speaker 6: have the mics unmuted. Ultimately they acquiesced on that, and 190 00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:55,600 Speaker 6: ABC came out and said, look, there will be muted mics, 191 00:09:56,040 --> 00:09:57,520 Speaker 6: you know, if we need to at some point, if 192 00:09:57,600 --> 00:09:58,840 Speaker 6: you know, things get out of hand and it's just 193 00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:01,640 Speaker 6: completely uncleared the audio, what is happening, We may unmute 194 00:10:01,640 --> 00:10:05,920 Speaker 6: the mics, but uh, for we can expect that, you know, 195 00:10:05,960 --> 00:10:07,520 Speaker 6: we won't be able to hear a candidate if they're 196 00:10:07,520 --> 00:10:09,440 Speaker 6: not you know, it's not their turn to answer. 197 00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:11,960 Speaker 2: A question we already heard from Donald Trump. He he 198 00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:17,199 Speaker 2: contends that Vice President Harris has already gotten the questions. 199 00:10:17,360 --> 00:10:20,040 Speaker 2: I mean, there's absolutely no evidence of that. Right. It 200 00:10:20,120 --> 00:10:24,360 Speaker 2: sounds like he's already uh, giving excuses for why he 201 00:10:24,440 --> 00:10:27,199 Speaker 2: may not do as well as some hope he does. 202 00:10:27,760 --> 00:10:30,440 Speaker 6: Yes, and this is a game that he plays before 203 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:32,760 Speaker 6: a lot of appearances of kind of you know, beefing 204 00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:34,360 Speaker 6: up his opponent and sort of you know, kind of 205 00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 6: downplaying his own potential performance. You know, he did this 206 00:10:37,200 --> 00:10:39,280 Speaker 6: before the June debate. You know, it was talking all 207 00:10:39,320 --> 00:10:41,960 Speaker 6: about how what a great debater Biden is, and of 208 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:43,800 Speaker 6: course that didn't you know, end up being the case, 209 00:10:43,840 --> 00:10:45,480 Speaker 6: and that you know, Trump really came out ahead out 210 00:10:45,520 --> 00:10:47,920 Speaker 6: of that debate. But he's been talking for weeks about 211 00:10:47,920 --> 00:10:49,760 Speaker 6: how you know, he sees ABC News as you know, 212 00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:53,040 Speaker 6: quote fake news, unfair. So he's a little bit trying 213 00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:55,160 Speaker 6: to sort of, you know, kind of give himself an 214 00:10:55,160 --> 00:10:57,120 Speaker 6: out if the debate doesn't go super well for him, 215 00:10:57,120 --> 00:10:59,440 Speaker 6: that he can say, look, I told you so, ABC wasn't. 216 00:10:59,320 --> 00:11:01,160 Speaker 2: Going to be fair to Is this going to be 217 00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:01,960 Speaker 2: the only debate? 218 00:11:02,320 --> 00:11:05,040 Speaker 6: It's very likely it may be. You know, there has 219 00:11:05,040 --> 00:11:07,240 Speaker 6: been discussion about another debate. You know, Trump has said 220 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:09,800 Speaker 6: he wants to do one on Fox News, Harris says, 221 00:11:09,840 --> 00:11:12,439 Speaker 6: he said, you won't do that. We do have a 222 00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:15,640 Speaker 6: debate for the vice presidential candidate scheduled, but this may 223 00:11:15,640 --> 00:11:17,720 Speaker 6: be the only time that we see Harris and Trump 224 00:11:17,760 --> 00:11:19,520 Speaker 6: on the stage together battling it out. 225 00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:22,959 Speaker 2: Do debates matter? I mean, I guess they, I should 226 00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:26,160 Speaker 2: say they. Leading up to this, Joe Biden obviously had 227 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:30,200 Speaker 2: a poor debate, really bad debate performance, and dropped out. 228 00:11:30,320 --> 00:11:32,920 Speaker 2: Thus we have now Kamala Harris. But what is the 229 00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:37,800 Speaker 2: history of debates the candidate's performance and whether it amounts 230 00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:40,160 Speaker 2: to people voting for them or against them. 231 00:11:40,320 --> 00:11:44,439 Speaker 6: So in recent history, the thinking has been that debates 232 00:11:44,480 --> 00:11:46,720 Speaker 6: don't matter that much. It may help you give you 233 00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:49,240 Speaker 6: a little post debate bump of a point or two, 234 00:11:49,320 --> 00:11:51,840 Speaker 6: but that you know, things may revert back to the 235 00:11:51,880 --> 00:11:54,640 Speaker 6: mean after you know, a week or so. Obviously, you 236 00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:56,280 Speaker 6: don't have to look any further than Joe Biden and 237 00:11:56,280 --> 00:11:58,360 Speaker 6: ask him if debates matter. If you know, a debate 238 00:11:58,520 --> 00:12:00,560 Speaker 6: this cycle, you know clearly up ended the race and 239 00:12:00,600 --> 00:12:03,199 Speaker 6: you know, essentially forced a candidate to drop out and 240 00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:05,880 Speaker 6: a new candidate to take his place. So there's a 241 00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:08,280 Speaker 6: lot of a lot of interest in this debate. For 242 00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:10,679 Speaker 6: obvious reason, this will probably be the largest audience you 243 00:12:10,760 --> 00:12:13,800 Speaker 6: know that the candidates will have, you know, before people 244 00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:16,320 Speaker 6: go to the polls. Another thing that's important too is 245 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:18,640 Speaker 6: you know, compared to you know, ten or twenty years ago, 246 00:12:18,920 --> 00:12:21,240 Speaker 6: people are voting a lot earlier than they used to. 247 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:23,719 Speaker 6: You know, a lot of states have early ballots that 248 00:12:23,760 --> 00:12:25,920 Speaker 6: will start to go out. Early voting will start happening 249 00:12:26,280 --> 00:12:28,240 Speaker 6: in a lot of places, So you know, people may 250 00:12:28,280 --> 00:12:29,880 Speaker 6: see this debate and you know, within a week or 251 00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:31,880 Speaker 6: two be able to vote. So things that happen in 252 00:12:31,920 --> 00:12:35,240 Speaker 6: October or early November don't matter as much because you know, 253 00:12:35,600 --> 00:12:37,439 Speaker 6: millions of people will have already had an opportunity to 254 00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:38,120 Speaker 6: cast their ballot. 255 00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:42,680 Speaker 2: We can't wait our thanks to Laura Davidson, Bloomberg Politics 256 00:12:42,760 --> 00:12:45,720 Speaker 2: Senator ed or reminder you could listen to special coverage 257 00:12:45,760 --> 00:12:48,720 Speaker 2: of this presidential debay Tuesday on Bloomberg TV and Radio, 258 00:12:49,120 --> 00:12:51,559 Speaker 2: along with a global simulcast. This all starts at a 259 00:12:51,600 --> 00:12:54,200 Speaker 2: eight pm Wall Street time. Just a head on Bloomberg 260 00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:57,240 Speaker 2: Daybreak weekend, I'll look ahead to the European Central banks 261 00:12:57,320 --> 00:13:01,760 Speaker 2: upcoming rates set ida. I'm John Tucker. This is Bloomberg. 262 00:13:13,559 --> 00:13:16,200 Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend or global look ahead 263 00:13:16,200 --> 00:13:18,720 Speaker 2: of the top stories for investors in the coming week. 264 00:13:18,880 --> 00:13:21,960 Speaker 2: I'm John Tucker in New York. Up later in the program, 265 00:13:22,000 --> 00:13:25,360 Speaker 2: I'll look ahead to a major product showcase from Apple 266 00:13:25,400 --> 00:13:28,160 Speaker 2: where the iPhone sixteen is going to be center stage. 267 00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:31,720 Speaker 2: But first in June, the European Central Bank cut rates 268 00:13:31,720 --> 00:13:35,240 Speaker 2: for the first time in five years, making the move 269 00:13:35,280 --> 00:13:37,960 Speaker 2: before its counterparts in the US of the UK, and 270 00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:41,800 Speaker 2: now traders are betting on a further reduction as policymakers 271 00:13:41,840 --> 00:13:43,760 Speaker 2: prepared to meet in the coming days and for more. 272 00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:46,760 Speaker 2: Let's go to London and bring in Bloomberg Daybreak Europe 273 00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:49,120 Speaker 2: anchor Caroline Hepger John. 274 00:13:49,280 --> 00:13:52,720 Speaker 1: When the EU became the second major global economy to 275 00:13:52,760 --> 00:13:56,560 Speaker 1: cut lending rates this summer. It cited progress made on 276 00:13:56,720 --> 00:14:00,400 Speaker 1: tackling inflation now in the coming days, a FIT are 277 00:14:00,400 --> 00:14:03,959 Speaker 1: widely expected to once again reduce boring costs when they 278 00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:08,640 Speaker 1: meet in Frankfurt after June's landmark decision. But while the 279 00:14:08,679 --> 00:14:11,439 Speaker 1: next two or three reductions in the deposit rate from 280 00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:14,280 Speaker 1: the current level of three point seventy five percent are 281 00:14:14,440 --> 00:14:17,880 Speaker 1: unlikely to cause major friction, things could get a lot 282 00:14:17,960 --> 00:14:21,720 Speaker 1: more contentious ones interest rates fall to around the three 283 00:14:21,800 --> 00:14:25,920 Speaker 1: percent mark if indeed they do. Sources tell Bloomberg that 284 00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:29,520 Speaker 1: the rate cutting debate could soon run into differing views 285 00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:32,880 Speaker 1: on both the price outlook and the point where monetary 286 00:14:32,880 --> 00:14:38,880 Speaker 1: policy stops restraining economic growth. With European inflation plunging, markets 287 00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:42,040 Speaker 1: and analysts reckon that boring costs might even be between 288 00:14:42,080 --> 00:14:43,920 Speaker 1: two and three percent by the end of the year. 289 00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:47,400 Speaker 1: It's food for thought, isn't it. For Europe's central bankers, 290 00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:50,960 Speaker 1: who widely agree that there is room to cut rates 291 00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:55,360 Speaker 1: further now, they'll also need to consider the impact on businesses, 292 00:14:55,400 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 1: particularly those operating within financial services. Recently, the German government 293 00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:04,880 Speaker 1: announced plans to dilute their stake in Commerce Bank after 294 00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:09,040 Speaker 1: high interest rates boosted the bank's profitability. As Bloomberg's European 295 00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:14,960 Speaker 1: Finance reporters Stephen Aaron's explains, fluctuating lending rates are directly 296 00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:17,800 Speaker 1: correlated with the bank's fortunes. 297 00:15:18,880 --> 00:15:21,320 Speaker 7: I mean, yes, the government would have to achieve a 298 00:15:21,360 --> 00:15:23,920 Speaker 7: much higher price for it to break even, but you 299 00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:26,040 Speaker 7: know it's whiter under the rege. Essentially, what they're looking 300 00:15:26,080 --> 00:15:28,400 Speaker 7: at is the share price rally. It's been happening at 301 00:15:28,400 --> 00:15:31,400 Speaker 7: Commerce Bank for the past four years really thanks to 302 00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:35,960 Speaker 7: interest rates rings by the ECB and that share price. 303 00:15:36,200 --> 00:15:38,120 Speaker 7: You know, it's just much higher than it used to be, 304 00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:41,080 Speaker 7: and they're seeing an opportunity to take advantage of it 305 00:15:41,160 --> 00:15:43,000 Speaker 7: and you know, make some money I suppose. 306 00:15:44,480 --> 00:15:47,560 Speaker 8: Okay, so it's opportunistic perhaps given the recent history of 307 00:15:47,560 --> 00:15:49,760 Speaker 8: Commerce Banks share price, even if over the longer term 308 00:15:49,840 --> 00:15:52,080 Speaker 8: they don't make money here, What does it mean then, 309 00:15:52,280 --> 00:15:54,840 Speaker 8: even for Commerce Bank itself. You know, when we speak 310 00:15:54,880 --> 00:15:56,880 Speaker 8: to them about this, and Critty was reminding us we 311 00:15:56,880 --> 00:15:59,480 Speaker 8: talked to the CFO about this very subject recently. They 312 00:15:59,560 --> 00:16:01,000 Speaker 8: usually say, well, that's something you've got to talk to 313 00:16:01,040 --> 00:16:03,560 Speaker 8: the government about obviously, and what does this mean for 314 00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:03,960 Speaker 8: the bank. 315 00:16:06,160 --> 00:16:08,960 Speaker 7: Well, I think if a big investor decides sort of 316 00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:11,000 Speaker 7: to sell down a stake in a company such as 317 00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:14,440 Speaker 7: Commerce Bank, it sends a signal, you know, we don't 318 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:16,760 Speaker 7: expect the share price to go up much much higher 319 00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:19,320 Speaker 7: and for longer, and so other investors will probably think 320 00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:21,360 Speaker 7: about him. What does it mean for us? We have 321 00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:24,720 Speaker 7: reported previously that commers Bank is looking for fresh investors, 322 00:16:24,720 --> 00:16:27,760 Speaker 7: and now that the biggest one is reducing at stake, 323 00:16:27,880 --> 00:16:30,480 Speaker 7: I think that task is becoming even more urgent for them, 324 00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:34,400 Speaker 7: and those will be the challenges facing commers Bank CEO 325 00:16:34,880 --> 00:16:37,440 Speaker 7: Kenov and CFO Olive for the next months and even years. 326 00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:42,080 Speaker 1: That was Bloomberg's European finance reporter Stephen Aaron speaking there. 327 00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:46,080 Speaker 1: So will it be another rate cut in Frankfurt and 328 00:16:46,080 --> 00:16:50,040 Speaker 1: how will the central bank navigate the uncertain path ahead 329 00:16:50,080 --> 00:16:53,720 Speaker 1: and how they communicate all of that to the markets 330 00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:57,280 Speaker 1: in Europe. I've been discussing that with Blueberg's europe Economy 331 00:16:57,320 --> 00:16:58,720 Speaker 1: reporter Alex Weber. 332 00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:03,240 Speaker 9: As you just said, see another cut next week is 333 00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:06,359 Speaker 9: almost fully priced as investors have little doubt that it's 334 00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:09,600 Speaker 9: going to happen. We've also heard from policymakers that they're 335 00:17:09,640 --> 00:17:12,840 Speaker 9: really ready to consider another cut, so that was already 336 00:17:12,920 --> 00:17:18,360 Speaker 9: a pretty strong signal market. The data on the economic 337 00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:20,960 Speaker 9: front has developed more and less in line as the 338 00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:26,240 Speaker 9: ECB expected, and the latest forecast was based on another 339 00:17:26,320 --> 00:17:29,720 Speaker 9: cut in September. So these two things combined means that 340 00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:30,600 Speaker 9: it's probably gonna. 341 00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:34,560 Speaker 1: Happen, okay, And if policymakers do lower interest rates again, 342 00:17:34,600 --> 00:17:37,280 Speaker 1: does the path then surely become a bit more complicated. 343 00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:42,600 Speaker 9: So from what we heard is that another cut in 344 00:17:42,680 --> 00:17:48,280 Speaker 9: December looks pretty likely, But then interest rates come closer 345 00:17:48,560 --> 00:17:53,399 Speaker 9: to a level that economists call neutral, and that means 346 00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:57,320 Speaker 9: that the discussion becomes a bit more complicated, because on 347 00:17:57,359 --> 00:18:01,480 Speaker 9: the one hand, ECB officials need to decide whether they 348 00:18:01,560 --> 00:18:06,200 Speaker 9: want to stop restraining the economy, whether the economy actually 349 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:10,040 Speaker 9: needs some help from interest rates, whether they need to 350 00:18:10,119 --> 00:18:13,360 Speaker 9: be lower any further. And the other complication is that 351 00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:17,480 Speaker 9: this so called neutral rate is pretty difficult to estimate 352 00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:20,719 Speaker 9: and observe, so it's it's hard to base policy upon it. 353 00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:23,200 Speaker 9: But on the other hand, it's pretty important, So there's 354 00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:26,040 Speaker 9: going to be the discussion is just going to become 355 00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:28,080 Speaker 9: a lot more complex as we. 356 00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:33,640 Speaker 1: Yeah, as we move forwards. Yeah, absolutely does a right 357 00:18:33,720 --> 00:18:38,800 Speaker 1: car suit Germany. I mean that has been one of 358 00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:41,560 Speaker 1: the key issues in Europe, the kind of waning industrial power, 359 00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:43,200 Speaker 1: the weaker economy in Germany. 360 00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:48,719 Speaker 9: Yeah, some economists have observed recently that Germany is actually 361 00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:51,200 Speaker 9: need of lower interest rates much more than the rest 362 00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:56,120 Speaker 9: of the Eurozone. Other countries are growing more strongly. Germany, 363 00:18:56,320 --> 00:18:59,280 Speaker 9: as you know, is very reliant on its industry, and 364 00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:04,800 Speaker 9: if borrowing costs remain higher than investments are becoming less attractive. 365 00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:07,080 Speaker 9: It's only one part of the story, but lower interest 366 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:10,760 Speaker 9: rates would probably help German industry to some extent. 367 00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:13,879 Speaker 1: Yes, what sort of pace can we expect when it 368 00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:16,560 Speaker 1: comes to the cuts from now? Do you think so? 369 00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:20,000 Speaker 9: Economists have long estimated that there will be quarterly cuts. 370 00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:24,400 Speaker 9: That's for several reasons. One is that the ECB publishes 371 00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:29,000 Speaker 9: economic forecasts once every quarter. That's also going to happen 372 00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:33,200 Speaker 9: next week, coinciding with a likely cut. The other reason 373 00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:38,399 Speaker 9: is that they're very focused on wage data because the 374 00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:43,440 Speaker 9: ECB is afraid that elevated wage growth could stoke inflationary 375 00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:47,399 Speaker 9: pressures and these sort of the sort of information also 376 00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:50,120 Speaker 9: comes at a quarterly pace, so all of that makes 377 00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:54,879 Speaker 9: makes it more likely that or points to the baseline 378 00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:59,240 Speaker 9: as for quarterly cuts in between is not ruled out, 379 00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:03,960 Speaker 9: but it would probably need some surprises in the data 380 00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:04,960 Speaker 9: for that to happen. 381 00:20:05,560 --> 00:20:09,679 Speaker 1: Well, inflation was two point two percent in August. Is 382 00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:14,320 Speaker 1: the battle for you know, dominance over inflation complete? Then, 383 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:17,000 Speaker 1: I mean that's very close to the ECB's target. 384 00:20:17,040 --> 00:20:19,679 Speaker 9: Is yeah, exactly, it's just barely above the target. But 385 00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:23,040 Speaker 9: one important reason for the slowdown was a dip in 386 00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:27,199 Speaker 9: energy costs, and that's also because energy prices were so 387 00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:30,879 Speaker 9: volatile last year, so it's partly a statistical effect. And 388 00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:34,720 Speaker 9: when you look under the hood, there is still services 389 00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:38,959 Speaker 9: inflation that's running at twice the ECB's target. That's causing 390 00:20:39,000 --> 00:20:44,240 Speaker 9: some uneasiness because it's really determined by domestic factors like 391 00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:48,240 Speaker 9: the wage growth that we already talked about the labor market. 392 00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:53,840 Speaker 9: And as long as services inflation stays elevated, then the 393 00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:56,800 Speaker 9: ECB is not going to sound all clear. So it 394 00:20:56,840 --> 00:20:59,280 Speaker 9: doesn't have to go it doesn't have to be that 395 00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:03,159 Speaker 9: all composedonents of inflation go back to two percent, but 396 00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:07,639 Speaker 9: at the moment there's still too much discrepancy. And we 397 00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:10,119 Speaker 9: also expect inflation to come back toward the end of 398 00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:13,880 Speaker 9: the year because these statistical effects on energy are going 399 00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:16,640 Speaker 9: to become less favorable in. 400 00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:20,640 Speaker 1: Terms of the policymakers who make those decisions. How united 401 00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:25,679 Speaker 1: are they in terms of the strategy. 402 00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:29,240 Speaker 9: So they've been relatively united. In recent weeks, we've heard 403 00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:34,760 Speaker 9: different emphasis from them. So on there's one cohort in 404 00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:39,520 Speaker 9: the twenty six member Government Council who emphasized the economy, 405 00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:45,520 Speaker 9: the sluggish economy with that points to a preference for 406 00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:49,159 Speaker 9: somewhat faster interest rate cuts. On the other hand, we 407 00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:54,240 Speaker 9: have some who keep emphasizing the components of the inflation 408 00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:59,159 Speaker 9: baskets that are not are still too elevated. So you 409 00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:03,320 Speaker 9: have just a different emphasis really at the moment. So 410 00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:08,280 Speaker 9: there is some friction, I would say, and that could 411 00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:11,680 Speaker 9: come depending on how the economy develops. That could even 412 00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:13,960 Speaker 9: become more pronounced in the coming month. 413 00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:17,199 Speaker 1: Okay, that would be yeah, something certainly to watch. What 414 00:22:17,240 --> 00:22:20,120 Speaker 1: will lower interest rates mean for the European banking sector. 415 00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:25,160 Speaker 9: So the banking sector has long enjoyed a windfall from 416 00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:27,840 Speaker 9: higher interest rates. We've already seen that this is no 417 00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:31,880 Speaker 9: slowly coming to an end. Interest rates have already been 418 00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:38,040 Speaker 9: lowered on mortgage credit, so for them, that's it's a 419 00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:41,719 Speaker 9: new chapter. Then if the ECB goes ahead with lowering 420 00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:42,520 Speaker 9: interest rates. 421 00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:45,960 Speaker 1: And just lastly, what do we expect to hear from 422 00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:49,760 Speaker 1: policymakers in terms of guidance? It's very cautious obviously from 423 00:22:50,119 --> 00:22:52,840 Speaker 1: Christine Legarde in a lot of her press conferences. What 424 00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:55,840 Speaker 1: do you think they will hear from policymakers from their guidance? 425 00:22:57,000 --> 00:23:02,000 Speaker 9: Yes, that's a good questions. I suspense Luggard will keep 426 00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:08,240 Speaker 9: stick to that total openness, because otherwise the risk is 427 00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:14,600 Speaker 9: always at the ECB stokes market expectations for more cuts, 428 00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:20,040 Speaker 9: and they're afraid of causing a somewhat an overreaction. So 429 00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:25,119 Speaker 9: like there's probably little upside in giving much guidance at 430 00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:30,200 Speaker 9: this stage, So Logard might well stick to to what 431 00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:32,040 Speaker 9: she said in the past, is that they are going 432 00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:35,399 Speaker 9: to remain data dependent and the path, especially for the 433 00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:38,680 Speaker 9: next meeting, is completely open. Whether she gives any signals 434 00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:42,600 Speaker 9: for further down the line some something very cautious, I 435 00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:47,119 Speaker 9: mean that can be ruled out, but my suspicion is 436 00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:50,320 Speaker 9: she's gonna be very open at this meeting. 437 00:23:50,760 --> 00:23:53,840 Speaker 1: That was Bloomberg's Alex Weber speaking to me. My thanks 438 00:23:53,840 --> 00:23:56,600 Speaker 1: to him for looking ahead to the ECB's interest rate 439 00:23:56,640 --> 00:24:01,000 Speaker 1: decision on Thursday, the twelfth of September. I'm Caroline Hepke 440 00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:03,520 Speaker 1: here in London. You can catch us every weekday morning 441 00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:06,320 Speaker 1: for Bloomberg Daybreak. You're at beginning at six am in London. 442 00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:08,000 Speaker 1: That's one am on Wall Street. 443 00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:11,680 Speaker 2: John, Thanks Caroline, and just ahead on Bloomberg day Break weekend, 444 00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:15,240 Speaker 2: I'll look ahead to a major product showcase from Apple. 445 00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:31,600 Speaker 2: I'm John Tucker. This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, 446 00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:34,360 Speaker 2: our bloob look ahead of the top stories for investors 447 00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:36,720 Speaker 2: in the coming week. I'm John Tucker in New York. 448 00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:40,080 Speaker 2: Apple is going to hold a major product showcase on Monday, 449 00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:44,320 Speaker 2: and the iPhone sixteen lineup will be center stage. The 450 00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:47,600 Speaker 2: launch may mean gains in market share for Apple suppliers 451 00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:50,480 Speaker 2: in Asia, and for a closer look, let's get to 452 00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:53,960 Speaker 2: Doug Chrisner, co host of Daybreak Asia. John. 453 00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:56,520 Speaker 3: The event is titled It's Glow Time. I think the 454 00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:59,199 Speaker 3: question is whether it will produce a glow for Apple. 455 00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:03,000 Speaker 3: iPhone demand has been stagnant for nearly three years. Unit 456 00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:07,080 Speaker 3: sales have been nearly flat, and according to Bloomberg Intelligence, 457 00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:09,800 Speaker 3: much of that volume was driven largely by the need 458 00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:14,199 Speaker 3: to upgrade iPhones sold three and four years ago. So 459 00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:16,560 Speaker 3: with the iPhone sixteen, much of the hype as we know, 460 00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:22,040 Speaker 3: revolves around the suite of AI tools branded as Apple Intelligence. Now, 461 00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:25,720 Speaker 3: analysts at Bloomberg are predicting the replacement of aging phones 462 00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:28,679 Speaker 3: will continue to be a big driver of sales for 463 00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:32,280 Speaker 3: the iPhone sixteen, much more so than Apple Intelligence. Our 464 00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:35,840 Speaker 3: analyst are saying Apple Intelligence will likely have a greater 465 00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:39,919 Speaker 3: impact in fiscal twenty twenty six. Well beyond AI, the 466 00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:44,720 Speaker 3: iPhone sixteen is expected to have several upgrades, larger displays, 467 00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:48,359 Speaker 3: additional capabilities for the camera, to name a few, and 468 00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:52,960 Speaker 3: these changes have created opportunities for Apple suppliers, especially since 469 00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:57,240 Speaker 3: Apple has been working to diversify its supply chain right 470 00:25:57,280 --> 00:26:01,760 Speaker 3: across Asia, not just in terms of oponent manufacturers, but 471 00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:05,960 Speaker 3: among assemblers as well. I spoke earlier with Stephen saying 472 00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:09,320 Speaker 3: he is see your tech industry analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence 473 00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:10,280 Speaker 3: in Hong Kong. 474 00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:16,000 Speaker 10: Apple does have the tendency to keep only a handful 475 00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:19,520 Speaker 10: of supplier in certain components, or sometimes even just keep 476 00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:23,120 Speaker 10: the soul supplier. I think it's better for the control 477 00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:27,480 Speaker 10: the quality and the delivery. In the near term, we 478 00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:31,080 Speaker 10: may not see any major increase in terms of assembler 479 00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:35,080 Speaker 10: But then in certain markets, for example like India, they 480 00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:40,800 Speaker 10: start working with Tata for the iPhone assembly, so if 481 00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:42,479 Speaker 10: they are doing a good job, I mean Tata. If 482 00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:45,399 Speaker 10: they're doing a good job, then hard to tell. But 483 00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:47,960 Speaker 10: so far I think we're still looking at three major 484 00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:49,679 Speaker 10: supplier in the side. 485 00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:54,000 Speaker 3: When it comes to the parts manufacturers, are they at 486 00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:56,879 Speaker 3: a state right now in terms of their production capacity 487 00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:59,240 Speaker 3: where they can meet what you think is going to 488 00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:01,320 Speaker 3: be a little bit of a pickup in demand. Do 489 00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:03,919 Speaker 3: you think that that's probable or we maybe going to 490 00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:06,960 Speaker 3: have a little too much demand and supply is going 491 00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:08,280 Speaker 3: to take a while to catch up. 492 00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:12,040 Speaker 10: I think in terms of capacity, I don't really see 493 00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:16,400 Speaker 10: any major issue given that we're not the overall smartpha 494 00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:19,359 Speaker 10: obviously become a much more mature market as a whole. 495 00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:24,480 Speaker 10: So the capacity issue to some extents is probably more 496 00:27:24,520 --> 00:27:30,640 Speaker 10: about relocation as the supply chain is trying to cope 497 00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:34,639 Speaker 10: with the juopidical tension, so some components supply might be 498 00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:39,120 Speaker 10: forced to relocate. But so far, for the like a camera, 499 00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:43,040 Speaker 10: we don't really see a lot of relocation happening. I 500 00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:46,720 Speaker 10: think component supply are still generally cautious. 501 00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:50,280 Speaker 3: He is Steven saying from a Bloomberg Intelligence, Let's continue 502 00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:54,080 Speaker 3: the conversation on the iPhone sixteen and Apple's supply chain 503 00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:57,080 Speaker 3: across the Asia Pacific. The let's have office with us. 504 00:27:57,119 --> 00:28:00,480 Speaker 3: He as Bloomberg Tech Editor in Hong Kong, along with 505 00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:04,480 Speaker 3: newly Parnell Asia Tech reporter, also based in Hong Kong. 506 00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:07,320 Speaker 3: Good of you guys to join us. Vlad, let me 507 00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:10,920 Speaker 3: begin with you. I want to understand how well prepared 508 00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:12,240 Speaker 3: Apple is for this launch. 509 00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:15,600 Speaker 11: Well, an Apple launch is one of the best orchestrated 510 00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:18,600 Speaker 11: events on the tech calendar. It's actually remarkable. I was 511 00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:21,480 Speaker 11: thinking recently that every September we get a new iPhone, 512 00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:24,600 Speaker 11: we get tens of millions of units distributed and prepared 513 00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:28,200 Speaker 11: across the world. You can never diet Apples preparation. The question, 514 00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:31,719 Speaker 11: to my mind is how well Apple does in selling 515 00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:34,680 Speaker 11: this AI pitch. Like we've just been discussing, how well 516 00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:37,880 Speaker 11: does it translate to consumers. Apple has been the one 517 00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:41,640 Speaker 11: company in the tech industry to take these rather elusive things, 518 00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:44,719 Speaker 11: simplify them, make them relatable to consumers, and make them 519 00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:47,600 Speaker 11: a reason to buy advice. They've done with so many things, 520 00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:51,520 Speaker 11: whether it's making the camera more relatable, video recording people 521 00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:54,600 Speaker 11: who have ditched their actual cameras and replace them with iPhones. 522 00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:58,400 Speaker 11: The real question is it's one for the entire industry. 523 00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:01,520 Speaker 11: How well can Apple sell AI because it will affect 524 00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:03,160 Speaker 11: not just Apple, put the broader. 525 00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:06,239 Speaker 3: Industry newly When you consider AI, this is something that 526 00:29:06,280 --> 00:29:09,880 Speaker 3: Apple obviously has invested a great deal in. How high 527 00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:10,600 Speaker 3: are the stakes? 528 00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:13,400 Speaker 12: I think the stakes are high, and I think what 529 00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:16,400 Speaker 12: I'm anticipating and I think others are looking at, is 530 00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:22,520 Speaker 12: whether sort of easier access to AI tools will really 531 00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:26,240 Speaker 12: start to translate into real world applications. So, in other words, 532 00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:29,200 Speaker 12: we see the sort of revolutions that's being created with 533 00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:33,280 Speaker 12: access to things like chat GPT, which is a sophisticated technology, 534 00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:36,320 Speaker 12: but it's a chat bock where you enter text and 535 00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:39,720 Speaker 12: you get a response. I think if smartphone makers like 536 00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:42,040 Speaker 12: Apple can start to introduce some of those features into 537 00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:44,200 Speaker 12: the device that people already use, so you don't have 538 00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:45,800 Speaker 12: to sit at a computer to use it, or go 539 00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:48,360 Speaker 12: to a special website or open an app, you can 540 00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:52,160 Speaker 12: bring some of these features closer to how people use 541 00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:55,160 Speaker 12: their phones, which are so attached to us throughout the day. 542 00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:59,080 Speaker 12: I think we could see more consumer adoption. It could 543 00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:01,680 Speaker 12: see more real world applications for this kind of nebulous 544 00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:04,400 Speaker 12: technology that people have been talking so much about how 545 00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:06,840 Speaker 12: it's going to change the world. If Apple can show 546 00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:10,080 Speaker 12: some of some of these applications and some of these 547 00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:12,760 Speaker 12: use cases for this technology right on the device, I 548 00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:14,160 Speaker 12: think that would be exciting to see. 549 00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:16,560 Speaker 11: And the interesting thing to my mind is that will 550 00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:19,560 Speaker 11: not translate into an immediate surge in sales. One of 551 00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:22,360 Speaker 11: the fun things what iPhone is that there's a lot 552 00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:26,000 Speaker 11: of peer pressure that happens. So if these AI features 553 00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:29,240 Speaker 11: do find an audience, what will happen is you'll notice 554 00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:31,880 Speaker 11: it in your friends and neighbors and family members using 555 00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:34,400 Speaker 11: these features. They will write better emails all of a sudden, 556 00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:38,120 Speaker 11: and is because they're using the AI making them more 557 00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:42,600 Speaker 11: concise in their messaging. They will send you fun autogenerated 558 00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:44,920 Speaker 11: images and you ask where did you get that from, 559 00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:47,240 Speaker 11: and they will say it's the only on the latest iPhone. 560 00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:49,880 Speaker 11: So one of the issues that Apple was actually faced 561 00:30:49,880 --> 00:30:52,960 Speaker 11: in recent years is the fact that after the first 562 00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:56,280 Speaker 11: surge of people having to upgrade because the annual upgrade cycle, 563 00:30:56,960 --> 00:30:59,720 Speaker 11: sales just kind of drop off during the first half 564 00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:01,520 Speaker 11: of the year. Yeah, app we started to struggle. It's 565 00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:04,120 Speaker 11: had to do discounts and precedented ones in China just 566 00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:06,440 Speaker 11: to keep sales going for the iPhone. And one of 567 00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:10,080 Speaker 11: the fascinating things is the dynamic of people buying the 568 00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:13,600 Speaker 11: iPhones in the last half of the year, then that 569 00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:16,880 Speaker 11: translating into more people being attracted by the AI stuff 570 00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:19,680 Speaker 11: and that potentially lifting sales in the first half of 571 00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:21,840 Speaker 11: the year where Apple has its difficulties. 572 00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:24,120 Speaker 3: Newly, when you look at the part suppliers in the 573 00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:29,520 Speaker 3: Pacific RIM, does this launch do anything for greater diversification 574 00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:32,160 Speaker 3: When you build out something like this, do you want 575 00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:34,560 Speaker 3: to make sure that your supply chain is much more 576 00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:36,040 Speaker 3: robust than it's been in the past. 577 00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:37,120 Speaker 4: Yeah. 578 00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:39,560 Speaker 12: And for some time, you know, Apple has been really 579 00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:43,720 Speaker 12: interested in diversifying its supply chain, particularly in countries like India, 580 00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:45,479 Speaker 12: where I was based before and where we've done some 581 00:31:45,560 --> 00:31:48,480 Speaker 12: great reporting on the advances that India that Apple has 582 00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:52,680 Speaker 12: been making in accelerating this speed with which they can 583 00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:56,200 Speaker 12: create newest versions of the iPhones in India, so it's 584 00:31:56,240 --> 00:32:00,240 Speaker 12: not simply lagging behind when they're made in China for Ekple. 585 00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:02,360 Speaker 12: Now they're getting closer and closer to being able to 586 00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:07,000 Speaker 12: release the very top end new iPhones in India. So, 587 00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:10,560 Speaker 12: for example, you know that that allows them to diversify 588 00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:13,440 Speaker 12: a bit away from the mainland because of the geopolitical 589 00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:16,280 Speaker 12: issues between the US and China, and over the years, 590 00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:18,280 Speaker 12: they've been really trying to build up their network of 591 00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:23,600 Speaker 12: supply of component makers, suppliers and capacity in India and 592 00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:26,120 Speaker 12: so so I think that's something really interesting to watch. 593 00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:30,120 Speaker 12: And of course India is an important increasingly important market 594 00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:32,800 Speaker 12: for actually selling its phones, so they're going to export 595 00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:34,440 Speaker 12: a lot of these from India, but also they want 596 00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:37,880 Speaker 12: to appeal to this one billion plus person economy as. 597 00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:38,520 Speaker 4: Well, glad. 598 00:32:38,520 --> 00:32:41,040 Speaker 3: As I mentioned earlier, much of the hype is focused 599 00:32:41,080 --> 00:32:45,160 Speaker 3: on this AI tool or tools plural with Apple Intelligence. 600 00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:49,600 Speaker 3: When you look at what companies like Samsung or Huawei 601 00:32:49,640 --> 00:32:52,840 Speaker 3: even what they are doing with respect to AI, is 602 00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:54,760 Speaker 3: Apple a little behind the curve? 603 00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:58,080 Speaker 11: I wouldn't say so. I think it's still extremely early days. 604 00:32:58,080 --> 00:33:00,600 Speaker 11: Some of the demos that I've seen from Chinese filmmakers 605 00:33:00,640 --> 00:33:03,120 Speaker 11: are really fascinating. Their compelling one of them is this 606 00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:07,320 Speaker 11: idea of turning AI into an agent. One of the companies, Honor, 607 00:33:07,360 --> 00:33:09,560 Speaker 11: which is a spin off from Huawei. They showed me 608 00:33:09,600 --> 00:33:13,360 Speaker 11: an AI demo where the AI agent went into all 609 00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:15,760 Speaker 11: their apps such as we Chat, pay, Alipay, and it 610 00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:18,360 Speaker 11: pulled out all of the user's pay subscriptions and then 611 00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:20,400 Speaker 11: you could just tell it by voice cancel all my 612 00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:23,160 Speaker 11: pay subscriptions because I'm tired of those. I find that 613 00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:26,520 Speaker 11: a very interesting and very compelling user of AI, just 614 00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:29,000 Speaker 11: simplifying a lot of these processes and kind of the 615 00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:32,920 Speaker 11: fiddly aspects of using a phone and internet services. But 616 00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:35,720 Speaker 11: that is still so early. It's so premature to say 617 00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:39,480 Speaker 11: that this is the decisive or the winning feature, whether 618 00:33:39,520 --> 00:33:43,000 Speaker 11: that's for Chinese manufacturers, whether it's for Samsung, whether it's 619 00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:45,280 Speaker 11: for Apple or even Google. I mean, one of the 620 00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:48,240 Speaker 11: interesting things is that Google advanced the launch of its 621 00:33:48,280 --> 00:33:51,040 Speaker 11: new Pixel phones earlier this year to go straight up 622 00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:54,000 Speaker 11: against the iPhone. And that's precisely because Google believes that 623 00:33:54,080 --> 00:33:56,800 Speaker 11: it has the better AI. But like I say, it's 624 00:33:56,840 --> 00:33:58,120 Speaker 11: still way too early to tell. 625 00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:01,400 Speaker 3: So newly, when we look at Apple products generally, I 626 00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:03,240 Speaker 3: know that they are considered to be kind of a 627 00:34:03,320 --> 00:34:06,960 Speaker 3: luxury item. The price point with this new rollout is 628 00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:09,360 Speaker 3: probably going to be high relative to some of the 629 00:34:09,400 --> 00:34:13,399 Speaker 3: other smartphones in the market, whether it's China or India. 630 00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:15,239 Speaker 3: Is there going to be appetite do you think for 631 00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:19,240 Speaker 3: the market to kind of support what Apple has aspirationally 632 00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:21,280 Speaker 3: in terms of total units sold. 633 00:34:21,640 --> 00:34:24,959 Speaker 12: Well, we've seen in China actually that they've been losing 634 00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:27,840 Speaker 12: market share with the new Huawei device, which is a 635 00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:32,440 Speaker 12: direct competitor the May sixty, Huawei's high end smartphone we 636 00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:36,040 Speaker 12: see Apple. You know, China is a huge market for 637 00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:39,040 Speaker 12: Apple for selling iPhones. I think there's still appetite there, 638 00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:42,360 Speaker 12: but certainly they've come under fresh challenges from Huawei and 639 00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:45,520 Speaker 12: other makers there. And then in India, also a massive market. 640 00:34:45,960 --> 00:34:48,040 Speaker 12: For a long time, they've had a tiny market share 641 00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:52,520 Speaker 12: in India, primarily because the device is so expensive in 642 00:34:52,560 --> 00:34:55,560 Speaker 12: a market where consumers have less purchasing power. But they 643 00:34:55,680 --> 00:34:58,200 Speaker 12: have made advances in India over the years, in part 644 00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:01,320 Speaker 12: because by manufacturing the devices in India, the taxes are lower, 645 00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:03,719 Speaker 12: so they can bring the price down. And you know, 646 00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:06,359 Speaker 12: there's been some interesting advancements as well on the retail front, 647 00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:09,680 Speaker 12: with Apple last year opening its first Apple stores ever 648 00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:12,080 Speaker 12: in India. And Tim Cook visiting the country last year. 649 00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:15,000 Speaker 12: That helps with branding, and when you have actual shops 650 00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:16,879 Speaker 12: people can go into and see how the devices work, 651 00:35:16,960 --> 00:35:18,680 Speaker 12: that that's been a boost. 652 00:35:18,360 --> 00:35:18,839 Speaker 9: For them too. 653 00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:20,840 Speaker 12: So I think certainly in India, and they have, of 654 00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:24,799 Speaker 12: course a wider variety of devices, the less expensive ones 655 00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:26,759 Speaker 12: in addition to the newest ones coming out, So I 656 00:35:26,760 --> 00:35:29,880 Speaker 12: think that they're quite bullish on India. So yeah, China, 657 00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:33,120 Speaker 12: you know, maybe growing pressure from Huawei and other competitors, 658 00:35:33,120 --> 00:35:35,600 Speaker 12: but India, I think, starting from a slower base, a 659 00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:37,359 Speaker 12: lot of room to expand, and I think they're pretty 660 00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:38,920 Speaker 12: excited about India. 661 00:35:39,040 --> 00:35:41,719 Speaker 11: And Apple really might need India because Huiwei scheduled an 662 00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:45,040 Speaker 11: event the day after the iPhone event. It's literally hours 663 00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:47,640 Speaker 11: after our reporting shows that it's going to be the 664 00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:51,560 Speaker 11: world's first commercial smartphone with two photo folds in it. 665 00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:54,439 Speaker 11: It's going to be groundbreaking device. Huiawe is really making 666 00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:56,399 Speaker 11: a push. And an interesting thing is that Apple fell 667 00:35:56,440 --> 00:35:58,640 Speaker 11: out of the top five in China in the June quarter. 668 00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:01,160 Speaker 11: It has a real chat lynch, as Newla says, in 669 00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:03,800 Speaker 11: one of his biggest markets. So it's going to need India. 670 00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:06,160 Speaker 11: It's going to need to remain strong in the US, 671 00:36:06,360 --> 00:36:08,360 Speaker 11: and again it all goes back to AI. Just like 672 00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:10,359 Speaker 11: with and Vidia and all the other companies that we cover, 673 00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:13,440 Speaker 11: AI is a real critical thing. And I also talk 674 00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:16,120 Speaker 11: to another one of the Chinese muffle manufacturers this past 675 00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:18,040 Speaker 11: week and I asked him, do you have a plan 676 00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:20,960 Speaker 11: B if consumers don't respond well to AI? And the 677 00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:21,879 Speaker 11: also well just know. 678 00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:25,840 Speaker 3: Newly Pernell is Asia Tech reporter. He's based in Hong Kong, 679 00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:30,400 Speaker 3: and Vladsavov is Bloomberg Tech editor, also joining us from 680 00:36:30,400 --> 00:36:32,959 Speaker 3: Hong Kong. Thanks so much to both of you for 681 00:36:33,239 --> 00:36:35,840 Speaker 3: helping us set up the launch of the iPhone sixteen 682 00:36:35,960 --> 00:36:38,960 Speaker 3: and understanding some of the ramifications for the parts suppliers 683 00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:42,000 Speaker 3: in the Asia Pacific. I'm Doug Krisner. You can join 684 00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:45,400 Speaker 3: Brian Curtis and myself weekdays here for Bloomberg Daybreak Asia 685 00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:49,239 Speaker 3: beginning at eight am in Hong Kong eight pm on 686 00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:50,000 Speaker 3: Wall Street. 687 00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:53,680 Speaker 2: John, Thanks Doug, and that does it for this edition 688 00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:56,919 Speaker 2: at Bloomberg day Break Weekend. Join us again Monday morning 689 00:36:56,960 --> 00:36:58,880 Speaker 2: at five am Long Street time for the latest on 690 00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:02,359 Speaker 2: markets overseas. In the news you need to start your day, 691 00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:05,440 Speaker 2: I'm John Tucker. Stay with us top stories and global 692 00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:08,319 Speaker 2: business headlines aren't coming up right now.