Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Ed Heheiman joins us
Speaker 1: chairman Evercore Isi, and of course out with a must
Speaker 1: read note. And it's almost comfort to me, edheymen to
Speaker 1: see your note and just observe that, you know the
Speaker 1: basic idea. You start, like Alan Greenspan with trucking. Explain
Speaker 1: why at Evercore ISI, where everybody hangs on every chart
Speaker 1: and every paragraph, why does edheymen start with the trucking survey.
Speaker 2: It Cause it's the most important thing to start with.
Speaker 2: So we survey about forty different industries, and you might
Speaker 2: ask yourself which one correlates with the economy most, and
Speaker 2: the answer is trucking. The survey's overall, you know, trucking, retail, autos,
Speaker 2: et cetera overall beat trucking by itself. But trucking has
Speaker 2: the motion and so and that survey also has hooked down.
Speaker 2: I'm looking for message signal.
Speaker 1: Well, can you signal now the certitude of a recession
Speaker 1: or the one of nb E R recession.
Speaker 2: No, I've been I've been on the recession kick too long.
Speaker 2: So I'm trying to wean yourself, not wean myself of it.
Speaker 2: I'm just trying to. You know, my job is to
Speaker 2: help our clients, and this has not been helpful. Now
Speaker 2: at this point, the logic that monetary tightening Milton Freeman
Speaker 2: would make inflation go away has worked, and they'll curve
Speaker 2: being inverted should slow the economy, and we're getting some
Speaker 2: evidence to slow down, and so I should relax a
Speaker 2: little bit.
Speaker 3: Okay, So what do you think if you're we're gonna
Speaker 3: hear from the Fed in a couple of weeks, We're
Speaker 3: gonna get some economic data today with jobs and tomorrow
Speaker 3: with the labor report. How do you think the US
Speaker 3: economy is performing these days?
Speaker 2: It's okay, a little spotty. Okay, some places are just booming,
Speaker 2: not doing well, not holding up, not resilient. When some
Speaker 2: places are softer, like our trucking survey has gotten a
Speaker 2: little bit weaker, and construction is a little bit weaker
Speaker 2: in some retail, particularly when you get into the lower
Speaker 2: income categories, are a little bit softer. And the employment data,
Speaker 2: which is the key, Yeah, everybody knows that, but it's
Speaker 2: it's showing some size of softer.
Speaker 1: We saw that with ADP. Folks in the markets move
Speaker 1: on it. Futures flat now, future futures negative thirteen nastick
Speaker 1: down six tens of a percent of VIC. This was
Speaker 1: a twenty level goes out to twenty one point two two.
Speaker 1: The Sweeney yield three point seven two percent in three
Speaker 1: basis points, and the two year yield a little bit
Speaker 1: of disinversion. You're a positive two ten spread. I haven't
Speaker 1: said that since the red sox last one. The real
Speaker 1: yield one point six seven percent. Paul, pick it up
Speaker 1: and talk about this.
Speaker 3: We're gonna have the FED presumably cutting rates and maybe
Speaker 3: substantially starting in September. What does that mean for the
Speaker 3: US homeowner? I mean, the mortgage rates have been high,
Speaker 3: but not and it comes to the point where nobody
Speaker 3: wants to sell their home because they don't want to
Speaker 3: go to a new home with a higher more surge trade.
Speaker 3: How do you think that housing market's going to react
Speaker 3: to what should be the declining industrate environment.
Speaker 2: It'll be good. You know, housing has had a real
Speaker 2: problem with lack of supply, and I find that everywhere.
Speaker 1: Yep.
Speaker 2: And we do a survey of home builders, of course
Speaker 2: you do, and that picked up quite a bit, about
Speaker 2: six or seven points on a zero to one hundred.
Speaker 2: When mortgage rates came down, and then this week it
Speaker 2: dropped two points. Okay, I don't know if it's noise.
Speaker 2: Lumber came down, So I'm trying to connect the dots
Speaker 2: like it might be a little bit of signal, But
Speaker 2: I don't get the feeling that you know, twenty five
Speaker 2: fifty seventy five hundred basis point drop in mortgage rates,
Speaker 2: I'm sorry, and the funds rate is going to do
Speaker 2: a lot.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you've got a noddy acquaintance with Boden University. I
Speaker 1: should said Boden College up in Maine. But the real
Speaker 1: heritage just University at Texas. You have an inherent prism
Speaker 1: into the boom economy of Texas, of Arizona and the rest.
Speaker 1: Where do you see that five years from now? Where
Speaker 1: do we just continue to see this migration from California,
Speaker 1: from New York, from Illinois and the rest.
Speaker 2: Probably probably you know, the tax situation is better. There's
Speaker 2: also a movement, particularly of young people like the University
Speaker 2: of Texas, to get away from a woke environment in
Speaker 2: the northeast. Frankly and so, and that's probably going to
Speaker 2: keep going on.
Speaker 1: You've kept politics out of your newsletter. I would say
Speaker 1: anyone else. You've been really really good about it. So
Speaker 1: I'm going to quiz you now.
Speaker 2: How you write it out?
Speaker 1: Don't walk, Lisa, hold on him, He's not walking out
Speaker 1: of his studio Aedheim. And how do you dance around
Speaker 1: this unique presidential election to give advice within your newsletter
Speaker 1: to your clients worldwide?
Speaker 2: So it's it's a dance. And Evercore has its roots
Speaker 2: in the very democratic group of people as founders with
Speaker 2: Roger Roger and Ralph Flashdain and they're terrific, and so
Speaker 2: I have to be a little careful he as a Republican,
Speaker 2: You're not. It's their firm, and I don't want to
Speaker 2: get in the way. But as we all know, it's
Speaker 2: fifty to fifty, and so it's too early to try
Speaker 2: and figure out what the economic implications. You know, Trump
Speaker 2: is giving a talk today here in New York at
Speaker 2: the Economic Club, and we'll pick a little bit up.
Speaker 2: I'm sure you'll be there, but yeah, traffic, that's all
Speaker 2: I know.
Speaker 1: And just we want to come back and continue this
Speaker 1: discussion with that. Timen, are you a buller of bear
Speaker 1: right now? Can you add cash to a belief in
Speaker 1: stocks right now?
Speaker 2: My technical analyst Rich Ross who's been very good. He
Speaker 2: was very bearish. Now he says he's balanced. I don't
Speaker 2: know what balance it means, right, So I'm not particularly
Speaker 2: bullish or particularly bearish. I own a lot of stocks
Speaker 2: on a lot of real estate. I'm nervous because things
Speaker 2: seem like they're too high, too expensive. Somehow, it's not
Speaker 2: a good answer for you, Tom.
Speaker 1: That's okay, we'll keep your on Anyways. I love doing
Speaker 1: this with that hymen. Everybody thinks he's like on a
Speaker 1: phone with Jay. No, he's looking at you know, he's
Speaker 1: in here, literally looking, he claims. As we start, unit
Speaker 1: labor costs came in a little bit lighter. What do
Speaker 1: you say about wage growth moderating nominal GDP comes down?
Speaker 1: And then what do you say about the real wage?
Speaker 1: Are we going to get a negative real wage?
Speaker 2: The ways look like they're really slowing, and inflation looks
Speaker 2: like it's really slowing, and proctivity has been really good.
Speaker 2: And I assume it got revised up a little bit
Speaker 2: because the GDP was revised up.
Speaker 1: I don't have the revisions yet.
Speaker 2: It should be out.
Speaker 1: They'll be on a couple of minutes. See how many
Speaker 1: he's killing me?
Speaker 2: And so you'll ever cost. I mean before the numbers
Speaker 2: was zero point five year and year, just an increase
Speaker 2: of zero point five and so inflation could be down
Speaker 2: to two percent without any trouble. And by some measures
Speaker 2: it already is down to two percent, so that that
Speaker 2: ship is sailed.
Speaker 3: So it's it FED late in cutting rates? Ed do
Speaker 3: you think or because a lot of folks out there
Speaker 3: saying the FED should have been cutting rates for months now?
Speaker 2: They're smarter than I am?
Speaker 1: Are they too smart?
Speaker 2: Could be too smart? I think the FED has been
Speaker 2: doing a pretty good job, and I'm generally critical of
Speaker 2: the FED. But either by luck or by skill, they
Speaker 2: have the path set now for cutting rates. And we
Speaker 2: got claimed this morning, so it makes me have a headache.
Speaker 2: And so they're you know, they got different mandates, so
Speaker 2: I don't necessarily think they should have will know better
Speaker 2: to answer that question. I do think that they were
Speaker 2: way off on raising rates. You know, the transitory story
Speaker 2: I thought was right?
Speaker 1: Is it harder now ed Heiman to do the craft?
Speaker 1: You stand, he's got a little tall table. He stands
Speaker 1: out with a black one of those markers that if
Speaker 1: you get on your shirt and he's marked, Is it
Speaker 1: harder to do it now because of the mystery of technology,
Speaker 1: the mystery of productivity, the polarization of the labor force
Speaker 1: in America, the haves and they have nots. Is it
Speaker 1: harder to do now?
Speaker 2: I don't think so. It's always been very hard to do.
Speaker 1: I agree with that.
Speaker 2: I'm not I'm not thinking it's any harder to do
Speaker 2: than it has been in the past. It's just been always,
Speaker 2: you know, very very difficult. In some ways. The hardest
Speaker 2: time was in the nineteen seventies, you know, when you
Speaker 2: had the embargo, he had wage price controls, he had
Speaker 2: inflation going nuts, he had Nixon resigning. I mean, it
Speaker 2: was pretty what are your clients?
Speaker 3: What are your clients asking you these days? That's maybe unique,
Speaker 3: or just what do they really want from you these days?
Speaker 2: I think they want a steady hand, a unbiased analysis
Speaker 2: of what's going on, and so I tried first to
Speaker 2: do that. You have the data on the ADP came out.
Speaker 2: It has is zero calories, It doesn't have any information whatsoever.
Speaker 2: It still moves to Wacket and we still look at
Speaker 2: it claims. On the other hand, you are very important, right, I.
Speaker 1: Want to go to the Economic Club of New York
Speaker 1: and the heritage you're Paul, and to paint the picture.
Speaker 1: Folks in the old days, you're in a huge ballroom
Speaker 1: in New York with the elite meat degree and the
Speaker 1: fancy people are up on stage trying not to eat
Speaker 1: until the speech is done. That's a tradition, and you're
Speaker 1: starving and you're looking at your food, going when do
Speaker 1: I eat? And off to the wings, the left wing
Speaker 1: and the right wing looking out at the people the
Speaker 1: audience are too worthies. And then with trepidation the speaker
Speaker 1: knows they're going to ask questions and often into the
Speaker 1: great joy at the Economic Club of New York, Ed Heyman,
Speaker 1: is one of those worthies You, Martin Feldstein and others
Speaker 1: would ask really tough questions. You do that today with
Speaker 1: former President Trump. What is your question today at twelve
Speaker 1: noon to Donald Trump?
Speaker 2: What are you going to do with taxes? It'd be
Speaker 2: the main thing I would want to know.
Speaker 1: Explain the distinction of the Harris tax policy is I'm
Speaker 1: not first a trial ballooned versus the Trump.
Speaker 2: Too early fair too early? You know in the news
Speaker 2: right now there's a debate they say that Trump wants
Speaker 2: to take the capital gains tax rate up to thirty
Speaker 2: nine percent, maybe if Biden wants to take it up
Speaker 2: and Harris wants to keep it something more like twenty
Speaker 2: eight percent, but you know, as a conservative, I would
Speaker 2: rather keep it, you know, twenty one or twenty two percent.
Speaker 1: Explain how the taxation of unrealized gains. Paul Sweeney bought
Speaker 1: Nvidia early. He's got a big unrealized gain and he's
Speaker 1: not selling that puppy, and select individuals, including the senator
Speaker 1: from Massachusetts, wants to text those unrealized kings. How does
Speaker 1: that harm not wealthy people?
Speaker 2: I think it harms everybody because it hurts the whole
Speaker 2: capitalistic system. And so I mean that's one of the
Speaker 2: things that I would find the most discouraging. It also
Speaker 2: is impossible to administer, so I don't think that's going
Speaker 2: to make it, but it definitely is low on life.
Speaker 2: So broadly listening things would be good.
Speaker 3: Broadly defined, where would you like to see the US
Speaker 3: tax system go over the next several years, because obviously,
Speaker 3: as you well well know, there's many different polar different
Speaker 3: thoughts on that. Where do you think it should go?
Speaker 2: I'm happy with it right right now. I think we're
Speaker 2: paying enough taxes and so I'm not interested in, you know,
Speaker 2: seeing taxes go up. And I don't. I don't get
Speaker 2: this sense that the Harris Democrats group really are pushing
Speaker 2: for higher taxes either. There's some parts are, but I
Speaker 2: don't know.
Speaker 3: How about the how about I would love to get
Speaker 3: your perspective on the debt and deficits. I've been hearing
Speaker 3: about it.
Speaker 2: My entire life. Wait, I have to worry about it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you too, But you were directly involved with this
Speaker 1: with Pete Peterson, Paul Suga, Sam nunn An the others.
Speaker 1: I mean, someone say they've been crying, well for years,
Speaker 1: we're still here. But are we at a tip point
Speaker 1: now that those people talked about it?
Speaker 2: So I don't think so, but I think about it
Speaker 2: all the time. I had a deep conversation yesterday with
Speaker 2: Lee Cooperman, who was extremely upset about it, and I said, Lee,
Speaker 2: bonniels are so low and the dollar is so strong.
Speaker 2: Those are the two things that would make you say
Speaker 2: this is now and it's.
Speaker 1: Not Take your work into John Gollop's work. We've got
Speaker 1: to go here at Hymen, but fold your economics into
Speaker 1: the evercore ISI equity call.
Speaker 2: So we've been on the equity call. Uh, we've been
Speaker 2: pretty bearish on the stock market, and so that's where
Speaker 2: I am right now. Frankly, we have a strategist and
Speaker 2: a technician that have different views.
Speaker 1: Well that's good, it's a classic. It's at timen views.
Speaker 2: Well no, but I'm just saying I listened to them.
Speaker 2: So right now, the economy's fine, earnings are good, inflation's
Speaker 2: coming down, Fed's going to cut and it's okay.
Speaker 1: Edman, thank you so much for being with us today here,
Speaker 1: end of the job.
Speaker 2: Nice to see Nice to see you as well.
Speaker 1: Him with Evercore is SI dancing around the politics of
Speaker 1: the moment. We'll speak to mister Hyman here of the
Speaker 1: autumn as we can