WEBVTT - Evercore ISI Chairman Ed Hyman Talks Fiscal Policy

0:00:02.440 --> 0:00:08.280
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Ed Heheiman joins us

0:00:08.520 --> 0:00:11.920
<v Speaker 1>chairman Evercore Isi, and of course out with a must

0:00:11.960 --> 0:00:15.960
<v Speaker 1>read note. And it's almost comfort to me, edheymen to

0:00:16.079 --> 0:00:20.000
<v Speaker 1>see your note and just observe that, you know the

0:00:20.040 --> 0:00:26.360
<v Speaker 1>basic idea. You start, like Alan Greenspan with trucking. Explain

0:00:26.920 --> 0:00:30.880
<v Speaker 1>why at Evercore ISI, where everybody hangs on every chart

0:00:31.120 --> 0:00:36.239
<v Speaker 1>and every paragraph, why does edheymen start with the trucking survey.

0:00:37.080 --> 0:00:39.479
<v Speaker 2>It Cause it's the most important thing to start with.

0:00:41.120 --> 0:00:50.440
<v Speaker 2>So we survey about forty different industries, and you might

0:00:50.479 --> 0:00:55.320
<v Speaker 2>ask yourself which one correlates with the economy most, and

0:00:55.360 --> 0:01:04.440
<v Speaker 2>the answer is trucking. The survey's overall, you know, trucking, retail, autos,

0:01:04.480 --> 0:01:10.520
<v Speaker 2>et cetera overall beat trucking by itself. But trucking has

0:01:10.560 --> 0:01:16.039
<v Speaker 2>the motion and so and that survey also has hooked down.

0:01:16.080 --> 0:01:18.319
<v Speaker 2>I'm looking for message signal.

0:01:19.040 --> 0:01:23.760
<v Speaker 1>Well, can you signal now the certitude of a recession

0:01:24.080 --> 0:01:26.800
<v Speaker 1>or the one of nb E R recession.

0:01:27.400 --> 0:01:31.920
<v Speaker 2>No, I've been I've been on the recession kick too long.

0:01:33.280 --> 0:01:37.720
<v Speaker 2>So I'm trying to wean yourself, not wean myself of it.

0:01:37.959 --> 0:01:41.360
<v Speaker 2>I'm just trying to. You know, my job is to

0:01:41.360 --> 0:01:46.000
<v Speaker 2>help our clients, and this has not been helpful. Now

0:01:46.160 --> 0:01:52.520
<v Speaker 2>at this point, the logic that monetary tightening Milton Freeman

0:01:52.800 --> 0:01:57.120
<v Speaker 2>would make inflation go away has worked, and they'll curve

0:01:57.280 --> 0:02:02.680
<v Speaker 2>being inverted should slow the economy, and we're getting some

0:02:02.760 --> 0:02:06.480
<v Speaker 2>evidence to slow down, and so I should relax a

0:02:06.520 --> 0:02:07.040
<v Speaker 2>little bit.

0:02:07.080 --> 0:02:10.440
<v Speaker 3>Okay, So what do you think if you're we're gonna

0:02:10.440 --> 0:02:12.639
<v Speaker 3>hear from the Fed in a couple of weeks, We're

0:02:12.639 --> 0:02:16.720
<v Speaker 3>gonna get some economic data today with jobs and tomorrow

0:02:16.760 --> 0:02:18.639
<v Speaker 3>with the labor report. How do you think the US

0:02:18.720 --> 0:02:20.320
<v Speaker 3>economy is performing these days?

0:02:20.760 --> 0:02:26.280
<v Speaker 2>It's okay, a little spotty. Okay, some places are just booming,

0:02:27.080 --> 0:02:32.640
<v Speaker 2>not doing well, not holding up, not resilient. When some

0:02:32.720 --> 0:02:35.959
<v Speaker 2>places are softer, like our trucking survey has gotten a

0:02:36.000 --> 0:02:37.960
<v Speaker 2>little bit weaker, and construction is a little bit weaker

0:02:37.960 --> 0:02:40.760
<v Speaker 2>in some retail, particularly when you get into the lower

0:02:40.760 --> 0:02:44.480
<v Speaker 2>income categories, are a little bit softer. And the employment data,

0:02:44.520 --> 0:02:48.840
<v Speaker 2>which is the key, Yeah, everybody knows that, but it's

0:02:48.880 --> 0:02:50.560
<v Speaker 2>it's showing some size of softer.

0:02:50.840 --> 0:02:53.040
<v Speaker 1>We saw that with ADP. Folks in the markets move

0:02:53.080 --> 0:02:58.240
<v Speaker 1>on it. Futures flat now, future futures negative thirteen nastick

0:02:58.320 --> 0:03:00.239
<v Speaker 1>down six tens of a percent of VIC. This was

0:03:00.240 --> 0:03:03.000
<v Speaker 1>a twenty level goes out to twenty one point two two.

0:03:03.600 --> 0:03:06.560
<v Speaker 1>The Sweeney yield three point seven two percent in three

0:03:06.720 --> 0:03:09.560
<v Speaker 1>basis points, and the two year yield a little bit

0:03:09.560 --> 0:03:13.360
<v Speaker 1>of disinversion. You're a positive two ten spread. I haven't

0:03:13.360 --> 0:03:16.680
<v Speaker 1>said that since the red sox last one. The real

0:03:16.800 --> 0:03:19.400
<v Speaker 1>yield one point six seven percent. Paul, pick it up

0:03:19.720 --> 0:03:20.320
<v Speaker 1>and talk about this.

0:03:20.560 --> 0:03:23.280
<v Speaker 3>We're gonna have the FED presumably cutting rates and maybe

0:03:23.360 --> 0:03:26.280
<v Speaker 3>substantially starting in September. What does that mean for the

0:03:26.400 --> 0:03:29.080
<v Speaker 3>US homeowner? I mean, the mortgage rates have been high,

0:03:29.120 --> 0:03:32.120
<v Speaker 3>but not and it comes to the point where nobody

0:03:32.160 --> 0:03:33.519
<v Speaker 3>wants to sell their home because they don't want to

0:03:33.520 --> 0:03:36.040
<v Speaker 3>go to a new home with a higher more surge trade.

0:03:36.320 --> 0:03:38.240
<v Speaker 3>How do you think that housing market's going to react

0:03:38.240 --> 0:03:41.040
<v Speaker 3>to what should be the declining industrate environment.

0:03:41.080 --> 0:03:43.680
<v Speaker 2>It'll be good. You know, housing has had a real

0:03:43.760 --> 0:03:48.920
<v Speaker 2>problem with lack of supply, and I find that everywhere.

0:03:49.000 --> 0:03:49.240
<v Speaker 1>Yep.

0:03:49.840 --> 0:03:54.160
<v Speaker 2>And we do a survey of home builders, of course

0:03:54.200 --> 0:03:58.680
<v Speaker 2>you do, and that picked up quite a bit, about

0:03:58.720 --> 0:04:01.000
<v Speaker 2>six or seven points on a zero to one hundred.

0:04:02.200 --> 0:04:05.560
<v Speaker 2>When mortgage rates came down, and then this week it

0:04:05.640 --> 0:04:09.320
<v Speaker 2>dropped two points. Okay, I don't know if it's noise.

0:04:10.240 --> 0:04:13.000
<v Speaker 2>Lumber came down, So I'm trying to connect the dots

0:04:14.120 --> 0:04:17.039
<v Speaker 2>like it might be a little bit of signal, But

0:04:17.880 --> 0:04:21.159
<v Speaker 2>I don't get the feeling that you know, twenty five

0:04:21.240 --> 0:04:24.719
<v Speaker 2>fifty seventy five hundred basis point drop in mortgage rates,

0:04:25.160 --> 0:04:27.480
<v Speaker 2>I'm sorry, and the funds rate is going to do

0:04:27.520 --> 0:04:27.880
<v Speaker 2>a lot.

0:04:28.400 --> 0:04:31.480
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, you've got a noddy acquaintance with Boden University. I

0:04:31.520 --> 0:04:34.520
<v Speaker 1>should said Boden College up in Maine. But the real

0:04:34.600 --> 0:04:38.840
<v Speaker 1>heritage just University at Texas. You have an inherent prism

0:04:39.600 --> 0:04:43.880
<v Speaker 1>into the boom economy of Texas, of Arizona and the rest.

0:04:44.160 --> 0:04:46.799
<v Speaker 1>Where do you see that five years from now? Where

0:04:47.080 --> 0:04:51.520
<v Speaker 1>do we just continue to see this migration from California,

0:04:51.600 --> 0:04:53.280
<v Speaker 1>from New York, from Illinois and the rest.

0:04:53.480 --> 0:05:00.200
<v Speaker 2>Probably probably you know, the tax situation is better. There's

0:05:00.200 --> 0:05:04.760
<v Speaker 2>also a movement, particularly of young people like the University

0:05:04.800 --> 0:05:09.520
<v Speaker 2>of Texas, to get away from a woke environment in

0:05:09.600 --> 0:05:13.720
<v Speaker 2>the northeast. Frankly and so, and that's probably going to

0:05:13.800 --> 0:05:14.360
<v Speaker 2>keep going on.

0:05:14.440 --> 0:05:16.719
<v Speaker 1>You've kept politics out of your newsletter. I would say

0:05:17.360 --> 0:05:20.320
<v Speaker 1>anyone else. You've been really really good about it. So

0:05:20.360 --> 0:05:21.760
<v Speaker 1>I'm going to quiz you now.

0:05:22.440 --> 0:05:23.640
<v Speaker 2>How you write it out?

0:05:24.000 --> 0:05:26.280
<v Speaker 1>Don't walk, Lisa, hold on him, He's not walking out

0:05:26.279 --> 0:05:30.839
<v Speaker 1>of his studio Aedheim. And how do you dance around

0:05:30.960 --> 0:05:35.800
<v Speaker 1>this unique presidential election to give advice within your newsletter

0:05:35.839 --> 0:05:37.839
<v Speaker 1>to your clients worldwide?

0:05:38.040 --> 0:05:45.440
<v Speaker 2>So it's it's a dance. And Evercore has its roots

0:05:45.440 --> 0:05:50.200
<v Speaker 2>in the very democratic group of people as founders with

0:05:50.320 --> 0:05:56.680
<v Speaker 2>Roger Roger and Ralph Flashdain and they're terrific, and so

0:05:56.720 --> 0:05:59.000
<v Speaker 2>I have to be a little careful he as a Republican,

0:05:59.560 --> 0:06:04.520
<v Speaker 2>You're not. It's their firm, and I don't want to

0:06:04.600 --> 0:06:09.000
<v Speaker 2>get in the way. But as we all know, it's

0:06:09.000 --> 0:06:15.000
<v Speaker 2>fifty to fifty, and so it's too early to try

0:06:15.000 --> 0:06:19.000
<v Speaker 2>and figure out what the economic implications. You know, Trump

0:06:19.040 --> 0:06:24.040
<v Speaker 2>is giving a talk today here in New York at

0:06:24.040 --> 0:06:27.320
<v Speaker 2>the Economic Club, and we'll pick a little bit up.

0:06:27.839 --> 0:06:30.800
<v Speaker 2>I'm sure you'll be there, but yeah, traffic, that's all

0:06:30.839 --> 0:06:32.279
<v Speaker 2>I know.

0:06:32.960 --> 0:06:35.840
<v Speaker 1>And just we want to come back and continue this

0:06:35.920 --> 0:06:38.560
<v Speaker 1>discussion with that. Timen, are you a buller of bear

0:06:38.680 --> 0:06:41.880
<v Speaker 1>right now? Can you add cash to a belief in

0:06:42.000 --> 0:06:42.920
<v Speaker 1>stocks right now?

0:06:46.040 --> 0:06:50.640
<v Speaker 2>My technical analyst Rich Ross who's been very good. He

0:06:50.800 --> 0:06:55.640
<v Speaker 2>was very bearish. Now he says he's balanced. I don't

0:06:55.720 --> 0:07:00.640
<v Speaker 2>know what balance it means, right, So I'm not particularly

0:07:00.760 --> 0:07:04.800
<v Speaker 2>bullish or particularly bearish. I own a lot of stocks

0:07:05.720 --> 0:07:10.440
<v Speaker 2>on a lot of real estate. I'm nervous because things

0:07:10.440 --> 0:07:15.080
<v Speaker 2>seem like they're too high, too expensive. Somehow, it's not

0:07:15.120 --> 0:07:16.840
<v Speaker 2>a good answer for you, Tom.

0:07:16.880 --> 0:07:19.000
<v Speaker 1>That's okay, we'll keep your on Anyways. I love doing

0:07:19.000 --> 0:07:21.200
<v Speaker 1>this with that hymen. Everybody thinks he's like on a

0:07:21.280 --> 0:07:24.120
<v Speaker 1>phone with Jay. No, he's looking at you know, he's

0:07:24.120 --> 0:07:27.320
<v Speaker 1>in here, literally looking, he claims. As we start, unit

0:07:27.400 --> 0:07:30.920
<v Speaker 1>labor costs came in a little bit lighter. What do

0:07:31.000 --> 0:07:36.320
<v Speaker 1>you say about wage growth moderating nominal GDP comes down?

0:07:36.760 --> 0:07:39.960
<v Speaker 1>And then what do you say about the real wage?

0:07:40.000 --> 0:07:41.880
<v Speaker 1>Are we going to get a negative real wage?

0:07:43.360 --> 0:07:47.080
<v Speaker 2>The ways look like they're really slowing, and inflation looks

0:07:47.120 --> 0:07:52.800
<v Speaker 2>like it's really slowing, and proctivity has been really good.

0:07:53.280 --> 0:07:55.360
<v Speaker 2>And I assume it got revised up a little bit

0:07:58.160 --> 0:07:59.960
<v Speaker 2>because the GDP was revised up.

0:08:00.120 --> 0:08:01.560
<v Speaker 1>I don't have the revisions yet.

0:08:02.920 --> 0:08:03.520
<v Speaker 2>It should be out.

0:08:03.560 --> 0:08:06.200
<v Speaker 1>They'll be on a couple of minutes. See how many

0:08:06.840 --> 0:08:07.480
<v Speaker 1>he's killing me?

0:08:09.880 --> 0:08:13.920
<v Speaker 2>And so you'll ever cost. I mean before the numbers

0:08:14.640 --> 0:08:17.920
<v Speaker 2>was zero point five year and year, just an increase

0:08:17.920 --> 0:08:20.760
<v Speaker 2>of zero point five and so inflation could be down

0:08:20.800 --> 0:08:23.920
<v Speaker 2>to two percent without any trouble. And by some measures

0:08:24.920 --> 0:08:28.720
<v Speaker 2>it already is down to two percent, so that that

0:08:30.080 --> 0:08:30.840
<v Speaker 2>ship is sailed.

0:08:31.680 --> 0:08:34.680
<v Speaker 3>So it's it FED late in cutting rates? Ed do

0:08:34.720 --> 0:08:36.280
<v Speaker 3>you think or because a lot of folks out there

0:08:36.280 --> 0:08:38.840
<v Speaker 3>saying the FED should have been cutting rates for months now?

0:08:40.440 --> 0:08:42.559
<v Speaker 2>They're smarter than I am?

0:08:43.040 --> 0:08:44.160
<v Speaker 1>Are they too smart?

0:08:44.760 --> 0:08:47.800
<v Speaker 2>Could be too smart? I think the FED has been

0:08:47.840 --> 0:08:52.040
<v Speaker 2>doing a pretty good job, and I'm generally critical of

0:08:52.080 --> 0:08:59.600
<v Speaker 2>the FED. But either by luck or by skill, they

0:08:59.640 --> 0:09:04.160
<v Speaker 2>have the path set now for cutting rates. And we

0:09:04.320 --> 0:09:09.880
<v Speaker 2>got claimed this morning, so it makes me have a headache.

0:09:10.160 --> 0:09:14.760
<v Speaker 2>And so they're you know, they got different mandates, so

0:09:14.880 --> 0:09:18.559
<v Speaker 2>I don't necessarily think they should have will know better

0:09:18.800 --> 0:09:22.720
<v Speaker 2>to answer that question. I do think that they were

0:09:22.840 --> 0:09:28.120
<v Speaker 2>way off on raising rates. You know, the transitory story

0:09:28.760 --> 0:09:30.839
<v Speaker 2>I thought was right?

0:09:31.640 --> 0:09:35.160
<v Speaker 1>Is it harder now ed Heiman to do the craft?

0:09:35.240 --> 0:09:38.160
<v Speaker 1>You stand, he's got a little tall table. He stands

0:09:38.200 --> 0:09:40.920
<v Speaker 1>out with a black one of those markers that if

0:09:40.920 --> 0:09:44.800
<v Speaker 1>you get on your shirt and he's marked, Is it

0:09:44.880 --> 0:09:48.280
<v Speaker 1>harder to do it now because of the mystery of technology,

0:09:48.320 --> 0:09:52.200
<v Speaker 1>the mystery of productivity, the polarization of the labor force

0:09:52.280 --> 0:09:55.240
<v Speaker 1>in America, the haves and they have nots. Is it

0:09:55.360 --> 0:09:56.440
<v Speaker 1>harder to do now?

0:09:57.040 --> 0:10:00.200
<v Speaker 2>I don't think so. It's always been very hard to do.

0:10:00.960 --> 0:10:01.560
<v Speaker 1>I agree with that.

0:10:01.920 --> 0:10:06.520
<v Speaker 2>I'm not I'm not thinking it's any harder to do

0:10:07.360 --> 0:10:10.679
<v Speaker 2>than it has been in the past. It's just been always,

0:10:10.960 --> 0:10:15.520
<v Speaker 2>you know, very very difficult. In some ways. The hardest

0:10:15.520 --> 0:10:19.680
<v Speaker 2>time was in the nineteen seventies, you know, when you

0:10:19.760 --> 0:10:24.840
<v Speaker 2>had the embargo, he had wage price controls, he had

0:10:24.880 --> 0:10:31.960
<v Speaker 2>inflation going nuts, he had Nixon resigning. I mean, it

0:10:32.040 --> 0:10:33.720
<v Speaker 2>was pretty what are your clients?

0:10:33.920 --> 0:10:38.200
<v Speaker 3>What are your clients asking you these days? That's maybe unique,

0:10:38.240 --> 0:10:40.280
<v Speaker 3>or just what do they really want from you these days?

0:10:42.400 --> 0:10:50.439
<v Speaker 2>I think they want a steady hand, a unbiased analysis

0:10:50.440 --> 0:10:53.680
<v Speaker 2>of what's going on, and so I tried first to

0:10:53.760 --> 0:10:59.600
<v Speaker 2>do that. You have the data on the ADP came out.

0:11:00.600 --> 0:11:04.839
<v Speaker 2>It has is zero calories, It doesn't have any information whatsoever.

0:11:04.920 --> 0:11:07.640
<v Speaker 2>It still moves to Wacket and we still look at

0:11:07.720 --> 0:11:13.280
<v Speaker 2>it claims. On the other hand, you are very important, right, I.

0:11:13.200 --> 0:11:14.960
<v Speaker 1>Want to go to the Economic Club of New York

0:11:15.200 --> 0:11:17.880
<v Speaker 1>and the heritage you're Paul, and to paint the picture.

0:11:17.960 --> 0:11:21.360
<v Speaker 1>Folks in the old days, you're in a huge ballroom

0:11:21.360 --> 0:11:24.640
<v Speaker 1>in New York with the elite meat degree and the

0:11:24.679 --> 0:11:27.360
<v Speaker 1>fancy people are up on stage trying not to eat

0:11:27.920 --> 0:11:30.199
<v Speaker 1>until the speech is done. That's a tradition, and you're

0:11:30.240 --> 0:11:32.480
<v Speaker 1>starving and you're looking at your food, going when do

0:11:32.559 --> 0:11:35.440
<v Speaker 1>I eat? And off to the wings, the left wing

0:11:35.480 --> 0:11:37.800
<v Speaker 1>and the right wing looking out at the people the

0:11:37.880 --> 0:11:42.920
<v Speaker 1>audience are too worthies. And then with trepidation the speaker

0:11:43.000 --> 0:11:47.319
<v Speaker 1>knows they're going to ask questions and often into the

0:11:47.360 --> 0:11:50.320
<v Speaker 1>great joy at the Economic Club of New York, Ed Heyman,

0:11:50.920 --> 0:11:53.960
<v Speaker 1>is one of those worthies You, Martin Feldstein and others

0:11:54.240 --> 0:11:57.680
<v Speaker 1>would ask really tough questions. You do that today with

0:11:58.120 --> 0:12:02.200
<v Speaker 1>former President Trump. What is your question today at twelve

0:12:02.240 --> 0:12:03.400
<v Speaker 1>noon to Donald Trump?

0:12:05.840 --> 0:12:08.280
<v Speaker 2>What are you going to do with taxes? It'd be

0:12:08.360 --> 0:12:09.640
<v Speaker 2>the main thing I would want to know.

0:12:10.840 --> 0:12:17.040
<v Speaker 1>Explain the distinction of the Harris tax policy is I'm

0:12:17.040 --> 0:12:21.280
<v Speaker 1>not first a trial ballooned versus the Trump.

0:12:21.240 --> 0:12:26.000
<v Speaker 2>Too early fair too early? You know in the news

0:12:26.080 --> 0:12:28.760
<v Speaker 2>right now there's a debate they say that Trump wants

0:12:28.760 --> 0:12:30.840
<v Speaker 2>to take the capital gains tax rate up to thirty

0:12:30.920 --> 0:12:33.600
<v Speaker 2>nine percent, maybe if Biden wants to take it up

0:12:34.440 --> 0:12:38.000
<v Speaker 2>and Harris wants to keep it something more like twenty

0:12:38.040 --> 0:12:41.600
<v Speaker 2>eight percent, but you know, as a conservative, I would

0:12:41.720 --> 0:12:44.280
<v Speaker 2>rather keep it, you know, twenty one or twenty two percent.

0:12:44.800 --> 0:12:50.600
<v Speaker 1>Explain how the taxation of unrealized gains. Paul Sweeney bought

0:12:50.720 --> 0:12:54.760
<v Speaker 1>Nvidia early. He's got a big unrealized gain and he's

0:12:54.800 --> 0:12:59.640
<v Speaker 1>not selling that puppy, and select individuals, including the senator

0:12:59.640 --> 0:13:04.080
<v Speaker 1>from Massachusetts, wants to text those unrealized kings. How does

0:13:04.120 --> 0:13:06.600
<v Speaker 1>that harm not wealthy people?

0:13:08.000 --> 0:13:11.840
<v Speaker 2>I think it harms everybody because it hurts the whole

0:13:11.880 --> 0:13:16.400
<v Speaker 2>capitalistic system. And so I mean that's one of the

0:13:16.440 --> 0:13:21.360
<v Speaker 2>things that I would find the most discouraging. It also

0:13:21.400 --> 0:13:25.720
<v Speaker 2>is impossible to administer, so I don't think that's going

0:13:25.800 --> 0:13:30.720
<v Speaker 2>to make it, but it definitely is low on life.

0:13:31.520 --> 0:13:33.720
<v Speaker 2>So broadly listening things would be good.

0:13:33.840 --> 0:13:36.120
<v Speaker 3>Broadly defined, where would you like to see the US

0:13:36.160 --> 0:13:39.840
<v Speaker 3>tax system go over the next several years, because obviously,

0:13:39.880 --> 0:13:42.880
<v Speaker 3>as you well well know, there's many different polar different

0:13:43.480 --> 0:13:45.040
<v Speaker 3>thoughts on that. Where do you think it should go?

0:13:46.080 --> 0:13:48.880
<v Speaker 2>I'm happy with it right right now. I think we're

0:13:48.880 --> 0:13:53.360
<v Speaker 2>paying enough taxes and so I'm not interested in, you know,

0:13:53.400 --> 0:13:56.400
<v Speaker 2>seeing taxes go up. And I don't. I don't get

0:13:56.400 --> 0:14:02.000
<v Speaker 2>this sense that the Harris Democrats group really are pushing

0:14:02.000 --> 0:14:06.920
<v Speaker 2>for higher taxes either. There's some parts are, but I

0:14:06.920 --> 0:14:07.520
<v Speaker 2>don't know.

0:14:07.520 --> 0:14:09.679
<v Speaker 3>How about the how about I would love to get

0:14:09.679 --> 0:14:13.480
<v Speaker 3>your perspective on the debt and deficits. I've been hearing

0:14:13.520 --> 0:14:13.880
<v Speaker 3>about it.

0:14:13.840 --> 0:14:16.079
<v Speaker 2>My entire life. Wait, I have to worry about it.

0:14:16.120 --> 0:14:18.640
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, you too, But you were directly involved with this

0:14:18.679 --> 0:14:22.400
<v Speaker 1>with Pete Peterson, Paul Suga, Sam nunn An the others.

0:14:22.640 --> 0:14:24.800
<v Speaker 1>I mean, someone say they've been crying, well for years,

0:14:24.800 --> 0:14:27.520
<v Speaker 1>we're still here. But are we at a tip point

0:14:27.560 --> 0:14:30.280
<v Speaker 1>now that those people talked about it?

0:14:31.000 --> 0:14:34.360
<v Speaker 2>So I don't think so, but I think about it

0:14:34.400 --> 0:14:38.520
<v Speaker 2>all the time. I had a deep conversation yesterday with

0:14:38.640 --> 0:14:45.080
<v Speaker 2>Lee Cooperman, who was extremely upset about it, and I said, Lee,

0:14:45.680 --> 0:14:49.360
<v Speaker 2>bonniels are so low and the dollar is so strong.

0:14:51.560 --> 0:14:54.320
<v Speaker 2>Those are the two things that would make you say

0:14:54.400 --> 0:14:57.920
<v Speaker 2>this is now and it's.

0:14:57.640 --> 0:15:00.760
<v Speaker 1>Not Take your work into John Gollop's work. We've got

0:15:00.800 --> 0:15:04.760
<v Speaker 1>to go here at Hymen, but fold your economics into

0:15:04.760 --> 0:15:06.920
<v Speaker 1>the evercore ISI equity call.

0:15:10.240 --> 0:15:15.320
<v Speaker 2>So we've been on the equity call. Uh, we've been

0:15:15.360 --> 0:15:22.680
<v Speaker 2>pretty bearish on the stock market, and so that's where

0:15:22.680 --> 0:15:26.640
<v Speaker 2>I am right now. Frankly, we have a strategist and

0:15:26.680 --> 0:15:28.560
<v Speaker 2>a technician that have different views.

0:15:28.760 --> 0:15:31.440
<v Speaker 1>Well that's good, it's a classic. It's at timen views.

0:15:31.600 --> 0:15:36.880
<v Speaker 2>Well no, but I'm just saying I listened to them.

0:15:37.120 --> 0:15:41.400
<v Speaker 2>So right now, the economy's fine, earnings are good, inflation's

0:15:41.440 --> 0:15:45.160
<v Speaker 2>coming down, Fed's going to cut and it's okay.

0:15:45.640 --> 0:15:48.680
<v Speaker 1>Edman, thank you so much for being with us today here,

0:15:48.760 --> 0:15:49.240
<v Speaker 1>end of the job.

0:15:49.400 --> 0:15:52.440
<v Speaker 2>Nice to see Nice to see you as well.

0:15:52.760 --> 0:15:56.480
<v Speaker 1>Him with Evercore is SI dancing around the politics of

0:15:57.120 --> 0:16:00.280
<v Speaker 1>the moment. We'll speak to mister Hyman here of the

0:16:00.360 --> 0:16:02.720
<v Speaker 1>autumn as we can