WEBVTT - 34: Japan Just Can't Catch a Break

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<v Speaker 1>This episode of Bloomberg Benchmark is sponsored by HSBC, winner

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<v Speaker 1>of Trade Finance America's sixteen Company Award for Best Supply

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<v Speaker 1>Chain Finance Bank in North America HSBC. Where ambition connects

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<v Speaker 1>with opportunity? Is it yen intervention like a term that

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<v Speaker 1>is out there? If not, it totally should be and

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<v Speaker 1>I should Trade market. Hello and welcome back to the

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Benchmark podcast. I'm Daniel Moss, Executive editor for Global

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<v Speaker 1>Economics of Bloomberg. My colleague Tory, stillwell, fresh from a

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<v Speaker 1>two week vacation in Europe, joins US in Washington. Ako

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<v Speaker 1>is on leave. Tory, welcome back, Thank you, thank you.

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<v Speaker 1>I was in France, Switzerland and Italy, but I worked

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<v Speaker 1>for it because I ran a marathon at the very beginning.

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<v Speaker 1>You want attempted to go to Japan. No, not this

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<v Speaker 1>time around. Well, poor Japan. It can be forgiven for

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<v Speaker 1>feeling a bit beaten last weekend attending the spring meetings

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<v Speaker 1>of the International Monetary Fund and G twenty. That's the

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<v Speaker 1>Group of twenty, the ministers and central bankers of the

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<v Speaker 1>world's largest economies. It's finance minister one little sympathy for

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<v Speaker 1>the pain being caused by a strong a end. But

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<v Speaker 1>it wasn't supposed to be that way. Let's take a

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<v Speaker 1>step back. While these days China gets all the buzz,

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<v Speaker 1>there was a time not too long ago when serious

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<v Speaker 1>people thought Japan's economy was going to swallow the world.

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<v Speaker 1>It was once the world's second largest economy by a

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<v Speaker 1>long way, and it still matters as the world's third

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<v Speaker 1>largest economy, a major American ally, and an anchor of

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<v Speaker 1>security in the post World War two Pacific. That's right,

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<v Speaker 1>But ever since a stock and property market bubble burst

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<v Speaker 1>in the early nineties, authorities there have been experimenting with

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<v Speaker 1>ultra low interest rates, bond purchases, and fiscal expansion. The

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<v Speaker 1>Bank of Japan was actually a pioneer of quantitative easing,

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<v Speaker 1>subsequently adopted by most major economies, including here in the US,

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<v Speaker 1>and yet it's stuck or worse. A bold effort a

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<v Speaker 1>reflation by Prime Minister Shinzo Arbe and Bank of Japan

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<v Speaker 1>Governor Hirohiko Kuroda got off to a promising start, but

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<v Speaker 1>appears to installed. Not only is the yen doing the

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<v Speaker 1>opposite of what it should be doing, but the I

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<v Speaker 1>M F forecast the economy will probably shrink this year.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks for nothing. Well, let's let's unpack that for just

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<v Speaker 1>a second. So we're saying that the yen is doing

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<v Speaker 1>the opposite of what it should be doing. So the

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<v Speaker 1>economy isn't doing great, it's struggling, and yet the yen

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<v Speaker 1>is strengthening. Is that right? Yes, and it's strengthening even

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<v Speaker 1>though they really throw in the kitchen sink at the

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<v Speaker 1>economy as far as monetary policy is concerned. So joining

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<v Speaker 1>us on the phone to help us make some to

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<v Speaker 1>all this from Tokyo after just returning from the I

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<v Speaker 1>m F meetings is Bloomberg story. Fudioka, So you travel

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<v Speaker 1>a lot with the finance minister, and you're actually in

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<v Speaker 1>d C with him this weekend. How's your how's your

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<v Speaker 1>jet lag hanging up? Oh? But you know it's getting better? Good? Thanks,

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<v Speaker 1>thanks for having me today. Of course, thanks for joining us.

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<v Speaker 1>So um so this did not sound It was a

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<v Speaker 1>happy meeting here in Washington with all these finance ministers.

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<v Speaker 1>And at this point, several years into abonomics and karudonomics,

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<v Speaker 1>the place was supposed to be flying. Japan was supposed

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<v Speaker 1>to be doing a lot better. What gives? Yeah, I

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<v Speaker 1>mean that's right, hasn't had much good news decently have

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<v Speaker 1>to give you an idea. Japan economy contracted in the

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<v Speaker 1>final and to see a good chance of another contractionary

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<v Speaker 1>too much. At the same as, they pointed out that

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<v Speaker 1>ye strengthening deversing weakening trends in the past few years

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<v Speaker 1>since I mister I became too power. I mean, that's

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<v Speaker 1>a big contept for Polihemic because overall it is squeezes

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<v Speaker 1>the Javanese corporate profit, makes them cautious of our investment

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<v Speaker 1>and raising wages, so that stopping the economic badge cycle.

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<v Speaker 1>So that's why Javanese finance Miss tartle as all pride

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<v Speaker 1>hard to get some sympathy from G twenty Last weekend,

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<v Speaker 1>he told at the G twenty diner that disorder or

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<v Speaker 1>accessible currency movements und terble and at one or one

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<v Speaker 1>meeting with the historiary secondary Jack Clu, he said he

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<v Speaker 1>has a deep concert with recently appreciation and repeated this

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<v Speaker 1>is the currency movements are und leveled. It's unusual for

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<v Speaker 1>Japanese finance mister to express his concert on follign exchange

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<v Speaker 1>in markets in this excess way. But what happened was

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<v Speaker 1>within twenty four hours after as we spoke to reporters,

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<v Speaker 1>Jack Crew said, Japanese to proce some secret demand and

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<v Speaker 1>markets are moving alday despite PFC engaged. That indicated a

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<v Speaker 1>create difference with asshole, and that's investors took it as

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<v Speaker 1>a big non overroo the US for Japan interming in

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<v Speaker 1>markets even if it wants it a frustrating moment for

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<v Speaker 1>Japanese officials. Clearly, what about the decline in oil toro

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<v Speaker 1>That was supposed to be a good thing, but that

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<v Speaker 1>really hurt the efforts to reflect the economy. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>I think to providing some support to consumers epifies those

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<v Speaker 1>in living in the la areas. So oil placed troup

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<v Speaker 1>has pushed down the lid of infreation. So unlike other

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<v Speaker 1>major nations, the Japan has experienced deecreation for about sixty years,

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<v Speaker 1>So the program decreation has a big crisp potaban company's

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<v Speaker 1>pussholes to keep their decreation in mindset. I want to

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<v Speaker 1>also put put this in context a little bit. So

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<v Speaker 1>when we're talking about the strengthening in UM, if we're

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<v Speaker 1>comparing it to the darts up just about ten percent

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<v Speaker 1>this year, and that's the second most of most of

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<v Speaker 1>the major currencies in the world. That seems like quite

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<v Speaker 1>a significant move. But how does that compare two years

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<v Speaker 1>past up until this year? I think since we started

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<v Speaker 1>a Yeah, we can the twenty patents of saty patents,

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<v Speaker 1>so so this could be just some unwinding of that. Then, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>that's true, that's true. But if you think it was weird,

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<v Speaker 1>Javan started it, but it went absolutely seventy five point

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<v Speaker 1>thirty five and the companies are really struggling with the

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<v Speaker 1>level that has improved. But companies, it's better for now.

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<v Speaker 1>Companies have a weekend yet and life in Japan is

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<v Speaker 1>still pretty comfortable. People still make a good living. There's

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<v Speaker 1>no sense of crisis. Does any of it matter in

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<v Speaker 1>the short term, yes, I mean like that's probably why

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<v Speaker 1>we haven't had major changes in the compolicies. But in

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<v Speaker 1>the long term that's got via concer and who knows

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<v Speaker 1>what's going to happen with if I continues to have

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<v Speaker 1>at the creature and why we have one of the

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<v Speaker 1>biggest system by that, well, it's been great. You could

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<v Speaker 1>join us, so soon after arriving home get some they

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<v Speaker 1>do so after a word from our sponsor, will be

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<v Speaker 1>back with our next guest. This episode of Bloomberg Benchmark

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<v Speaker 1>is sponsored by HSBC, with over eight thousand global relationship

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<v Speaker 1>managers on the ground in over sixty countries. HSBC mixture

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<v Speaker 1>Global Ambition their local business HSBC Well, our next guest

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<v Speaker 1>is also no stranger to Japan or Japanese economics. Jeff Young.

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<v Speaker 1>You've been following the country for a couple of decades,

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<v Speaker 1>including a stint as chief economist at City Group in Tokyo.

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<v Speaker 1>You now have your own firm called Deep Macro. It's

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<v Speaker 1>great you could join us. You know, listening to Taru

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<v Speaker 1>makes me wonder whether this current condition is really just

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<v Speaker 1>normal for Japan and the decades after World War Two

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<v Speaker 1>that saw the spectacular growth work light with the aberration. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I think that there's something to be said for that. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>Right after World War Two there was an enormous amount

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<v Speaker 1>of reconstruction that had to happen UM, an enormous amount

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<v Speaker 1>of the labor force that had to be brought into

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<v Speaker 1>the modern economy, and an enormous catch up that had

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<v Speaker 1>to be done with the United States and the other

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<v Speaker 1>advanced countries. Japan pretty much reached that point. Uh some

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<v Speaker 1>you know, in the late nineteen eighties, the early nineties

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<v Speaker 1>UM and since then it's been dealing with problems like

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<v Speaker 1>the demographic issues. And for a country undergoing Japan's demographic shifts,

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<v Speaker 1>I think this really does raise a question how fast

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<v Speaker 1>can you expect to grow? Right? But many other countries

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<v Speaker 1>are also facing huge demographic issues that will catch up

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<v Speaker 1>with them sooner or later. And yet Japan really does

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<v Speaker 1>seem to be mired in this environment where they can't

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<v Speaker 1>get inflation to pick up no matter what they do,

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<v Speaker 1>where the economy is starting to struggle and is obviously

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<v Speaker 1>creating concern out there. I mean, is this something unique

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<v Speaker 1>to Japan though, that that no matter what they try

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<v Speaker 1>to do, they just can't get it going like they want. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I think that there's a couple of things to point out.

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<v Speaker 1>You're entirely correct that there are many countries who have

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<v Speaker 1>similar demographics at least looking forward, but Japan was you know,

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<v Speaker 1>they have, they aged much faster than anybody else if

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<v Speaker 1>you look at things like the old age dependency ratio,

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<v Speaker 1>if you look at things like the change of the

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<v Speaker 1>working age population, Japan sort of hit the skids in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of UM demographics being favorable for growth you know,

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<v Speaker 1>quite a bit before. But I think that what you're

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<v Speaker 1>pointing to if if um, you know, I would extent

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<v Speaker 1>that is that you know, countries like Korea, UM, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>they have you know, a somewhat japan Esque future to

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<v Speaker 1>look at, at least in terms of whether demographics are going.

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<v Speaker 1>The other thing that I think has something to do

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<v Speaker 1>with the deflation, although it's been an awful long time

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<v Speaker 1>h is Japan also had its financial crisis UM, a

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<v Speaker 1>big one UM and it in the ninety nineties, and

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<v Speaker 1>the slow response to that UM the near collapse of

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<v Speaker 1>the banking system once twice, three times UH. The impact

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<v Speaker 1>that that has had throughout the economy seems to be

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<v Speaker 1>very very deep rooted. UM. Difficult to quantify, especially given

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<v Speaker 1>that the crisis has been over for an awful long time,

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<v Speaker 1>but it does seem to have had a long term

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<v Speaker 1>negative effect on sentiment that officials, including Governor Kuroda, have

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<v Speaker 1>continuously pointed out that they're really trying their best to undo.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think that maybe the banking crisis one of

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<v Speaker 1>the root causes of that. The demographic issues have been

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<v Speaker 1>pretty well documented. I mean, if you flip through late

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<v Speaker 1>night TV and a hotel in Tokyo, you'll come across

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<v Speaker 1>lots of ads for adult diapers, an adult daycare. Is

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<v Speaker 1>there something beyond that? Let's talk about the term kiretsu

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<v Speaker 1>yes UM. The Japanese industrial groupings, usually with a bank

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<v Speaker 1>UM at the center. UM. They'd have UM generally speaking,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, manufacturing companies and insurance company UM. A lot

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<v Speaker 1>of different UM companies in an industrial grouping UH, and

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of the business would take place within those

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<v Speaker 1>groups UM. I don't think that they've had such a

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<v Speaker 1>role in the economy UM recently. One thing that really

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<v Speaker 1>has been noticeable during the period of deflation or very

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<v Speaker 1>close to deflation, is the relationship between small firms and

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<v Speaker 1>arge firms, where there has been just a continuing grinding

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<v Speaker 1>pressure from the large firms towards their smaller suppliers to

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<v Speaker 1>please cut your prices. We're not going to pay you

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<v Speaker 1>more this year. In fact, we're going to pay you

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit less, and that has had a very

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<v Speaker 1>UH that has had a pretty strong deflationary impact of

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<v Speaker 1>the economy because the small businesses employ a lot of people,

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<v Speaker 1>so if they're receiving every year a little bit less

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<v Speaker 1>for the products they produce, that has meant that every

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<v Speaker 1>year they've been having to pay their workers a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit less. UH. And that has I think been one

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<v Speaker 1>of the structural forces if you look at the how

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<v Speaker 1>the corporate sector is arranged, that has contributed to this

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<v Speaker 1>undertow let's say, of deflation and also contributing to that.

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<v Speaker 1>Just kind of bringing it back to the conversation that

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<v Speaker 1>we had earlier at the top of the show, is

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<v Speaker 1>the strengthening in And you know, at the I m

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<v Speaker 1>F meetings Japan really didn't get a lot of sympathy

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<v Speaker 1>UM Trosury Secretary Jack lou here in the US really

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<v Speaker 1>urged them to just kind of ride this out, to

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<v Speaker 1>not engage in any intervention to weaken their currency. Is

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<v Speaker 1>I'm curious about this is yen intervention like a term

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<v Speaker 1>that is out there? If not, it totally should be

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<v Speaker 1>and I should trade market. I hadn't heard it. Actually,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm I have not either, and it's kind of surprising.

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<v Speaker 1>That's a good one. UM. I think Look, the G

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<v Speaker 1>twenty UM have a longstanding UH policy against intervention unless

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<v Speaker 1>markets are disoriented disorderly UM. And I think that they're saying, look, UM,

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<v Speaker 1>the yen has appreciated but it hasn't really appreciated in

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<v Speaker 1>a disorderly fashion yet. I think that there's a general

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<v Speaker 1>unease globally also with this whole phenomenon of negative interest

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<v Speaker 1>rates UM. Japan wasn't the first to go negative. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>they're probably the first towards zero UM long ago UM,

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<v Speaker 1>so Japan can certainly say, look, we're not unique there.

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<v Speaker 1>But I do think that when they rather surprisingly cut

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<v Speaker 1>their part of their indust rate, it's only very small

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<v Speaker 1>portion of the whole structure, but some of the indust

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<v Speaker 1>rates below zero in January this year, that did seem

0:14:20.240 --> 0:14:25.480
<v Speaker 1>to represent a broadening um of the whole negative industrate

0:14:25.480 --> 0:14:29.800
<v Speaker 1>phenomenon from Europe, where several central banks maintain some form

0:14:29.800 --> 0:14:33.040
<v Speaker 1>of negative rates, now Japan has it. You have some

0:14:33.080 --> 0:14:36.040
<v Speaker 1>people talking about it in the US, but I think

0:14:36.040 --> 0:14:40.840
<v Speaker 1>that that's just uncharted territory so UM. On the monetary side,

0:14:41.080 --> 0:14:44.600
<v Speaker 1>there does seem to be a sense of let's not

0:14:45.000 --> 0:14:50.240
<v Speaker 1>do anything dramatic and let's try to see if what

0:14:50.320 --> 0:14:52.960
<v Speaker 1>China is doing in terms of stimulating the economy of

0:14:53.040 --> 0:14:58.840
<v Speaker 1>fiscal policy um UM, tightening up regulations on capital outflows

0:14:58.840 --> 0:15:01.440
<v Speaker 1>a little bit more. Maybe that's enough to sort of

0:15:01.480 --> 0:15:06.600
<v Speaker 1>stabilize the global industrial cycle and to stabilize the emerging markets,

0:15:06.600 --> 0:15:08.920
<v Speaker 1>which were really the locate the locus of the weakness

0:15:08.960 --> 0:15:12.920
<v Speaker 1>last year. And there's also been some talk of helicopter money.

0:15:13.560 --> 0:15:16.320
<v Speaker 1>Uh in Japan. Would you walk us through that idea

0:15:16.360 --> 0:15:21.120
<v Speaker 1>a little bit? Sure? Um, it really is basically a

0:15:21.240 --> 0:15:24.600
<v Speaker 1>tax cut or fiscal spending that is financed by the

0:15:24.640 --> 0:15:28.840
<v Speaker 1>central bank rather than the government issuing debt. So another

0:15:28.840 --> 0:15:32.160
<v Speaker 1>one of these very unorthodox measures. Yes, I think so,

0:15:32.360 --> 0:15:36.920
<v Speaker 1>And you could argue that Japan has implicitly done this before. UM.

0:15:36.960 --> 0:15:39.440
<v Speaker 1>But the I think the arguments that it might be

0:15:39.520 --> 0:15:43.200
<v Speaker 1>bigger or even more radically. If the Bank of Japan

0:15:43.320 --> 0:15:46.440
<v Speaker 1>is buying the bonds that would be issued in order

0:15:46.480 --> 0:15:50.560
<v Speaker 1>to finance this fiscal expansion, maybe they would just stuff

0:15:50.640 --> 0:15:53.120
<v Speaker 1>them in the drawer and not ask to be repaid

0:15:53.600 --> 0:15:58.520
<v Speaker 1>when um they come to This would be a true monetization. UM.

0:15:58.560 --> 0:16:00.800
<v Speaker 1>I don't think that Japan is there, but there has

0:16:00.840 --> 0:16:02.760
<v Speaker 1>been some talk of that, and I think that there's

0:16:02.760 --> 0:16:07.880
<v Speaker 1>a very important distinction between the circumstances in which perhaps

0:16:07.880 --> 0:16:12.200
<v Speaker 1>helicopter money is appropriate and the circumstances that the Japan

0:16:12.240 --> 0:16:15.040
<v Speaker 1>faces right now. You know, Jeff and Tory. It feels

0:16:15.080 --> 0:16:18.200
<v Speaker 1>like there's a real element of tragedy to this. You

0:16:18.280 --> 0:16:23.000
<v Speaker 1>have these two guys, Are and Corona. They've done a

0:16:23.000 --> 0:16:27.080
<v Speaker 1>lot since they've been in office, and yet it seems

0:16:27.120 --> 0:16:31.200
<v Speaker 1>like they're swimming against these long term forces and in

0:16:31.240 --> 0:16:34.160
<v Speaker 1>the case of oil, a bit of bad luck that

0:16:34.200 --> 0:16:36.960
<v Speaker 1>are just thwarting them. I mean, it does seem like

0:16:37.000 --> 0:16:40.560
<v Speaker 1>a tragedy. Really, can two men really make a difference?

0:16:40.720 --> 0:16:43.840
<v Speaker 1>This would suggest not well. I think that there are

0:16:43.880 --> 0:16:46.400
<v Speaker 1>a couple of the couple of big forces that we've

0:16:46.440 --> 0:16:49.920
<v Speaker 1>spoken about. The first is demographics. The second would be

0:16:50.000 --> 0:16:54.160
<v Speaker 1>just the very large level of public debt, which you know,

0:16:54.240 --> 0:16:57.280
<v Speaker 1>I would I would argue that your colleague Tour referred

0:16:57.320 --> 0:17:00.040
<v Speaker 1>to indirectly when he talked about the consumption tax, Like

0:17:01.040 --> 0:17:04.280
<v Speaker 1>the reason why the Ministry of Finance has consistently wanted

0:17:04.280 --> 0:17:08.680
<v Speaker 1>to hike this tax is to raise revenue, to begin

0:17:09.359 --> 0:17:12.080
<v Speaker 1>to slow the debt, the pace of debt accumulation, and

0:17:12.160 --> 0:17:15.080
<v Speaker 1>maybe to reduce it eventually. And this is essentially just

0:17:15.119 --> 0:17:18.960
<v Speaker 1>a sales tax. That's true. But the problem is that

0:17:19.040 --> 0:17:22.000
<v Speaker 1>Japan has so much debt um as a result of

0:17:22.040 --> 0:17:24.919
<v Speaker 1>these past fiscal stimulus packages, as a result of just

0:17:24.960 --> 0:17:28.560
<v Speaker 1>the weakness of the economy, um that the public is

0:17:28.600 --> 0:17:32.800
<v Speaker 1>now expecting these tax hikes pretty regularly. And so if

0:17:32.840 --> 0:17:36.919
<v Speaker 1>you have really poor demographics and you have, um a

0:17:37.000 --> 0:17:40.440
<v Speaker 1>public that expects tax hikes to pay for those, it's

0:17:40.440 --> 0:17:46.120
<v Speaker 1>not clear that the countercyclical measures that the Prime Minister

0:17:46.240 --> 0:17:48.920
<v Speaker 1>and the Governor of the Central Bank have been implementing

0:17:49.280 --> 0:17:52.800
<v Speaker 1>are really enough to change the tide. You can certainly

0:17:52.800 --> 0:17:55.840
<v Speaker 1>affect growth for a little while, which is which has happened,

0:17:56.320 --> 0:17:59.920
<v Speaker 1>but you tend to go back into that sort of

0:18:00.040 --> 0:18:04.440
<v Speaker 1>negative equilibrium of a very very slow decline. I thought

0:18:04.520 --> 0:18:07.919
<v Speaker 1>we'd closed with a bit of historical perspective. You know,

0:18:08.000 --> 0:18:11.480
<v Speaker 1>the way people talked about Japan back in the late

0:18:11.520 --> 0:18:14.639
<v Speaker 1>eighties in the early nineties, there was a real sense

0:18:14.640 --> 0:18:18.280
<v Speaker 1>that was going to swallow the world. Everyone was struggling

0:18:18.320 --> 0:18:23.000
<v Speaker 1>to adopt Japanese decision making practices. No c suite was

0:18:23.080 --> 0:18:27.080
<v Speaker 1>complete without books lying around called things like oh, I

0:18:27.080 --> 0:18:30.920
<v Speaker 1>don't know the Toyota way or a japan that can

0:18:31.000 --> 0:18:36.000
<v Speaker 1>say no. It feels a little embarrassing in retrospect. Should

0:18:36.000 --> 0:18:40.000
<v Speaker 1>we have known better? And is there another Asian country

0:18:40.119 --> 0:18:42.720
<v Speaker 1>we're making the same mistake about? Well? I think I

0:18:42.760 --> 0:18:45.720
<v Speaker 1>know where you're going there, and I think that we

0:18:45.800 --> 0:18:48.439
<v Speaker 1>may indeed be making that mistake. UM. I would just

0:18:48.480 --> 0:18:50.960
<v Speaker 1>say is from my experience as an economist that it's

0:18:51.119 --> 0:18:55.640
<v Speaker 1>very difficult to separate out the micro foundations of success

0:18:55.800 --> 0:19:00.159
<v Speaker 1>and failure versus the macro ones. Um. Everything that you

0:19:00.280 --> 0:19:06.320
<v Speaker 1>just mentioned were uh, micro economic strengths of Japan, many

0:19:06.359 --> 0:19:08.920
<v Speaker 1>of which they still have. And as you pointed out,

0:19:08.960 --> 0:19:10.720
<v Speaker 1>you know, there are some very good firms. It's a

0:19:10.720 --> 0:19:13.280
<v Speaker 1>great place to live now, especially given that it's not

0:19:13.359 --> 0:19:16.800
<v Speaker 1>as expensive as it used to be. But if you

0:19:16.920 --> 0:19:20.520
<v Speaker 1>have too much debt um and if you have a

0:19:20.560 --> 0:19:24.680
<v Speaker 1>banking crisis, um, and then you compound that with the demographics,

0:19:25.920 --> 0:19:27.600
<v Speaker 1>the best corporate sector in the world is going to

0:19:27.680 --> 0:19:32.320
<v Speaker 1>have trouble growing. And with respect to China, perhaps that

0:19:32.720 --> 0:19:36.119
<v Speaker 1>question is becoming a legitimate one. Clearly, there are a

0:19:36.160 --> 0:19:40.760
<v Speaker 1>lot of good Chinese companies. There's obviously a very vibrant UH.

0:19:41.680 --> 0:19:45.359
<v Speaker 1>I don't know what the right word is, acquisitive, capitalistic ethic,

0:19:45.800 --> 0:19:50.040
<v Speaker 1>real growth ethic out there. But if China continues to

0:19:50.040 --> 0:19:53.320
<v Speaker 1>accumulate debt at the rate that it has been um,

0:19:53.520 --> 0:19:57.240
<v Speaker 1>will that become as big of a constraint on growth

0:19:57.720 --> 0:19:59.960
<v Speaker 1>as it has in Japan. I think it's a macroeconomy.

0:20:00.119 --> 0:20:03.160
<v Speaker 1>I'd have to say it might well. Jeff, we could

0:20:03.160 --> 0:20:05.040
<v Speaker 1>talk about this for quite a while, but we've got

0:20:05.040 --> 0:20:07.760
<v Speaker 1>to wrap it up. Thanks for sharing your perspective with us,

0:20:11.160 --> 0:20:13.760
<v Speaker 1>and thanks to all of you for listening to Bloomberg Benchmark.

0:20:13.840 --> 0:20:16.560
<v Speaker 1>We'll be back next week. Until then, you can find

0:20:16.640 --> 0:20:19.960
<v Speaker 1>us on the Bloomberg terminal and Bloomberg dot com, as

0:20:20.000 --> 0:20:24.440
<v Speaker 1>well as iTunes, pocket Cast, Stitcher, and Google Play. While

0:20:24.480 --> 0:20:26.639
<v Speaker 1>you're there, take a minute to rape and review the

0:20:26.680 --> 0:20:30.520
<v Speaker 1>show so more listeners can find us, and feel free

0:20:30.640 --> 0:20:32.440
<v Speaker 1>to let us know what you thought of the show.

0:20:32.520 --> 0:20:36.800
<v Speaker 1>As always, we are available and active on Twitter. I'm

0:20:36.840 --> 0:20:41.320
<v Speaker 1>at Tory Stillwell and Dan is at danielmas d C. Jeff,

0:20:41.320 --> 0:20:43.280
<v Speaker 1>do you have a Twitter? Yes, I'm looking at it

0:20:43.400 --> 0:20:46.280
<v Speaker 1>right now on Jeff's business card. It's at Deep Macro.

0:20:46.720 --> 0:20:55.520
<v Speaker 1>We'll see you next week. This episode of Bloomberg Benchmark

0:20:55.640 --> 0:20:59.919
<v Speaker 1>was sponsored by HSBC. With HSBC, you have up to

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