1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:03,200 Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros podcast. 2 00:00:03,240 --> 00:00:05,280 Speaker 1: I'm your host, Thomas Viola, and today we have a 3 00:00:05,400 --> 00:00:08,720 Speaker 1: very special episode for you. Today's topic is going to 4 00:00:08,720 --> 00:00:12,160 Speaker 1: be black swan events. What is a black swan event. Well, 5 00:00:12,200 --> 00:00:14,960 Speaker 1: in the stock market, it is what's known as an 6 00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 1: unpredictable and catastrophic event for the market. In sports betting, 7 00:00:19,640 --> 00:00:22,920 Speaker 1: the term pretty much crosses directly over it's an unpredictable 8 00:00:22,920 --> 00:00:26,040 Speaker 1: and catastrophic event for sports books, an event where books 9 00:00:26,079 --> 00:00:29,000 Speaker 1: get beaten so badly that they might not actually be 10 00:00:29,040 --> 00:00:32,040 Speaker 1: able to cover their losses on the bets they've taken. Now, 11 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:35,000 Speaker 1: sports betting is only legal in twenty three states so far, 12 00:00:35,120 --> 00:00:37,199 Speaker 1: and it's only been legal in those twenty three for 13 00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:40,280 Speaker 1: a very short amount of time, so we haven't had 14 00:00:40,360 --> 00:00:43,760 Speaker 1: one of these events happen yet. But most books say 15 00:00:43,800 --> 00:00:46,080 Speaker 1: that they know it will happen one day, and they 16 00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:48,240 Speaker 1: don't know what that is going to look like. And 17 00:00:49,080 --> 00:00:51,120 Speaker 1: the closest we've come is the day that we're going 18 00:00:51,200 --> 00:00:53,320 Speaker 1: to be talking about in particular here, and that is 19 00:00:53,479 --> 00:00:57,680 Speaker 1: January ninth, twenty twenty two. What happened, Well, let me 20 00:00:57,680 --> 00:00:59,800 Speaker 1: set the stage for you. It's started off around eight 21 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 1: two pm Eastern time. The Warriors were set to play 22 00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 1: the Cleveland Cavaliers that night in what was Klay Thompson's 23 00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:09,560 Speaker 1: return to the court after over two years of injury. Now, 24 00:01:09,640 --> 00:01:12,440 Speaker 1: Draymond Green, at the time for the Warriors, was dealing 25 00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:14,240 Speaker 1: with a light calf injury of his own that was 26 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:16,720 Speaker 1: going to keep him out of the game. However, the 27 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:22,520 Speaker 1: Warriors decided, and a grand gesture of the symbolic nature 28 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:25,240 Speaker 1: of Klay Thompson's return to the court, they were going 29 00:01:25,319 --> 00:01:26,920 Speaker 1: to have their Big three on the court for the 30 00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:30,560 Speaker 1: opening tip off. Draymond was technically going to start the game. 31 00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:34,760 Speaker 1: The news broke about Draymond's intention and spread like wildfire. 32 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:37,040 Speaker 1: Betters flocked to the books to get down as much 33 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:41,119 Speaker 1: money they could parlay anything related to Draymond Green unders 34 00:01:41,160 --> 00:01:43,839 Speaker 1: that they could find. All in all, books had around 35 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:46,920 Speaker 1: three million dollars in liability that they pretty much knew 36 00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:49,480 Speaker 1: was Fada Compley they were going to be on the 37 00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:51,440 Speaker 1: hook for. And then this happened. 38 00:01:51,960 --> 00:01:54,320 Speaker 2: Now the Cavs know that Draymond's going to do this, 39 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 2: and so there's the foul. 40 00:01:56,880 --> 00:01:59,920 Speaker 1: Draymond Green clocked out of the game seven seconds play, 41 00:02:00,360 --> 00:02:04,640 Speaker 1: a total of zero points, zero rebounds, zero cysts, and 42 00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:09,240 Speaker 1: one foul, all of his unders of course cash. This 43 00:02:09,360 --> 00:02:11,760 Speaker 1: meant the books now had a very interesting decision to make. 44 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:13,960 Speaker 1: Where they on the hook for this money? Was it 45 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:18,040 Speaker 1: a known event? Could they find a way to get 46 00:02:18,080 --> 00:02:20,480 Speaker 1: out of paying for it? Well, most of the books 47 00:02:20,520 --> 00:02:24,840 Speaker 1: immediately said no, and they paid out promptly. Betters posted 48 00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 1: winning tickets of thousands to tens of thousands, and even 49 00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:31,720 Speaker 1: a few hundred of one hundred thousand dollars winners, who all, 50 00:02:31,760 --> 00:02:34,720 Speaker 1: of course, the next day found themselves severely limited by 51 00:02:34,720 --> 00:02:36,400 Speaker 1: the same books that they had just won from the 52 00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:39,600 Speaker 1: previous night. Most of them said, well, you know what, 53 00:02:40,480 --> 00:02:43,320 Speaker 1: that's a pretty fair consolation prize for not doing business 54 00:02:43,320 --> 00:02:46,600 Speaker 1: here again, and they walked away happily. DraftKings took a 55 00:02:46,600 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 1: few days before they too decided to pay out their betters, 56 00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:54,080 Speaker 1: and all bets were eventually settled. But of course, that 57 00:02:54,280 --> 00:02:57,440 Speaker 1: wasn't the only thing to happen that night. Not to 58 00:02:57,520 --> 00:03:01,960 Speaker 1: be outdone by any sort of league or anything else 59 00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:05,040 Speaker 1: in the sporting realm having the spotlight for more than 60 00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:10,239 Speaker 1: ten seconds, the NFL came charging through on what potentially 61 00:03:10,480 --> 00:03:14,520 Speaker 1: was about to make this a truly catastrophic night in 62 00:03:14,560 --> 00:03:17,560 Speaker 1: the sports betting world. It was the final day of 63 00:03:17,680 --> 00:03:20,440 Speaker 1: the regular season. The final game of Week eighteen was 64 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:23,320 Speaker 1: being played that night on Monday Night between the Raiders 65 00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:27,480 Speaker 1: and the Chargers, and some astute NFL observers had figured 66 00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:30,360 Speaker 1: out beforehand that if the Raiders and Chargers played the 67 00:03:30,440 --> 00:03:33,920 Speaker 1: game out to a tie, both teams would end up 68 00:03:33,919 --> 00:03:37,400 Speaker 1: making the playoffs. This brought about a very interesting bit 69 00:03:37,440 --> 00:03:41,680 Speaker 1: of game theory. Could both teams potentially even kneel down 70 00:03:41,800 --> 00:03:43,760 Speaker 1: all the way through the entire game and play it 71 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:46,520 Speaker 1: out that way? Many people knew that wasn't going to happen, 72 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 1: but still there were some zero zero exacted takers out there. 73 00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:53,680 Speaker 1: But the real issue came from all of the same 74 00:03:53,720 --> 00:03:57,640 Speaker 1: game parlays that betters were able to creatively build around 75 00:03:57,760 --> 00:04:00,640 Speaker 1: the event, things like taking the final score to be 76 00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:04,080 Speaker 1: an even number, taking and combining that with both teams 77 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:07,920 Speaker 1: to cover the three point spread. This was always that 78 00:04:07,960 --> 00:04:10,920 Speaker 1: the betters could find to tie in and maximize their 79 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:15,040 Speaker 1: potential profit on a tie game situation. Here, and because 80 00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:17,520 Speaker 1: of the nature of same game parlays and the way 81 00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:19,520 Speaker 1: that they work on the back end in sports books, 82 00:04:19,920 --> 00:04:23,360 Speaker 1: the ultimate liability for the book was pretty much an 83 00:04:23,440 --> 00:04:26,120 Speaker 1: unknown at that point. The books weren't going to know 84 00:04:26,440 --> 00:04:28,840 Speaker 1: how much they were on the hook for until they 85 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:31,880 Speaker 1: had to actually pay it all out. Now, this didn't 86 00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:34,360 Speaker 1: end up happening, of course. The Chargers called a time 87 00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:36,480 Speaker 1: out and the dying moments of the game, and the 88 00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:39,280 Speaker 1: Raiders kicked a field goal as time expired in overtime, 89 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:42,400 Speaker 1: and much to the relief of sports books everywhere, the 90 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:45,160 Speaker 1: Raiders won the game, and they managed to avoid any 91 00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:49,000 Speaker 1: question of paying out all of those tie bets. But 92 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:51,120 Speaker 1: what could have happened had that night gone just a 93 00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:54,120 Speaker 1: little differently, had there not been a timeout at that moment, 94 00:04:55,040 --> 00:04:57,440 Speaker 1: Things could be very well different in the sports betting 95 00:04:57,480 --> 00:05:01,800 Speaker 1: world today, and they quite frankly almost were so here 96 00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:04,840 Speaker 1: to break down all of that, the effects and ramifications 97 00:05:04,880 --> 00:05:07,640 Speaker 1: of this night, what we could see in the future, 98 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:10,640 Speaker 1: how books are preparing for Black Swan events, and so 99 00:05:10,760 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 1: much more. I'm very happy to introduce our guests for today, 100 00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:19,640 Speaker 1: ESPN's David Purdam. David, thank you so much for being 101 00:05:19,680 --> 00:05:20,440 Speaker 1: here with me today. 102 00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:22,760 Speaker 2: Hey appreciate you having me so. 103 00:05:23,480 --> 00:05:24,960 Speaker 1: I think the first thing that we want to get 104 00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:29,000 Speaker 1: into right off the bat with the Draymond Green incident. 105 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:31,560 Speaker 1: This was obviously a wild night for so many reasons. 106 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 1: But with Draymond's situation in particular, what makes something a 107 00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:38,960 Speaker 1: known event? Because that is the crux of the argument 108 00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:43,479 Speaker 1: of the bookmakers versus the betters here. Did Draymond entering 109 00:05:43,520 --> 00:05:47,560 Speaker 1: the game for the start leaving after five seconds constitute 110 00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:49,680 Speaker 1: a known event or was it something that you should 111 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:51,159 Speaker 1: still fairly have been able to bet on. 112 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:53,440 Speaker 2: Not, in my opinion, is not a known event or 113 00:05:53,480 --> 00:05:55,920 Speaker 2: non event? Is something that has occurred, right, Okay, maybe 114 00:05:55,960 --> 00:05:57,760 Speaker 2: they announced it that he's going to go out, but 115 00:05:57,839 --> 00:06:01,640 Speaker 2: maybe something happens they changed has not occurred, so it 116 00:06:01,760 --> 00:06:04,560 Speaker 2: is definitely not known. You think that's what's going to happen, 117 00:06:04,640 --> 00:06:06,599 Speaker 2: that's what people are telling you is going to happen, 118 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:09,240 Speaker 2: but it has not happened. And that comes into the 119 00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:11,400 Speaker 2: old past posting, which I know, so a lot of 120 00:06:11,440 --> 00:06:14,359 Speaker 2: your viewers are probably familiar with betting on something that 121 00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:18,280 Speaker 2: it's already occurred, and I think that's what when draft 122 00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:20,440 Speaker 2: Kings decided to kind of, hey, we want to look 123 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:24,359 Speaker 2: in this, and you know, they are the ones that 124 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:27,040 Speaker 2: get penalized if they do break the regulations. Right, if 125 00:06:27,080 --> 00:06:29,560 Speaker 2: this was a known event or past posting. They can 126 00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:33,080 Speaker 2: get fined for that, so I don't necessarily blaming them 127 00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:36,680 Speaker 2: for taking a little closer look at the situation. But 128 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:39,120 Speaker 2: in my opinion, it was not known event or media 129 00:06:39,240 --> 00:06:42,880 Speaker 2: report if it comes directly from the team, has not 130 00:06:43,080 --> 00:06:46,040 Speaker 2: happened yet, and that is what my opinion constitutes a 131 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:47,640 Speaker 2: known event exactly. 132 00:06:47,680 --> 00:06:50,799 Speaker 1: We've seen some things. I mean, even in the Super 133 00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:53,200 Speaker 1: Bowl a couple of years back, when Malcolm Butler was 134 00:06:53,320 --> 00:06:56,960 Speaker 1: benched for the entire game. Belichick could have come out 135 00:06:57,040 --> 00:06:59,039 Speaker 1: and said something about that. As a matter of fact, 136 00:06:59,320 --> 00:07:01,720 Speaker 1: he kind of did the opposite by not saying anything 137 00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:04,440 Speaker 1: about it at all, and then Butler doesn't go out 138 00:07:04,480 --> 00:07:06,200 Speaker 1: and play it all. If you had bet his unders, 139 00:07:06,760 --> 00:07:09,000 Speaker 1: you would have been coasting for the game because he 140 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:11,480 Speaker 1: did dress. I guess that gets into kind of did 141 00:07:11,520 --> 00:07:14,520 Speaker 1: he start or would the bet be action. That's not 142 00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:17,480 Speaker 1: really the point here, But there's a difference between a 143 00:07:17,560 --> 00:07:21,040 Speaker 1: known event something like betting on the WWE, which you 144 00:07:21,080 --> 00:07:24,600 Speaker 1: obviously can't do in America, and a known event, like 145 00:07:24,600 --> 00:07:27,480 Speaker 1: you said of past posting, where if you're at a 146 00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:29,520 Speaker 1: game and you see a run get scored and then 147 00:07:29,560 --> 00:07:32,240 Speaker 1: you try and go live bet that run after it's 148 00:07:32,320 --> 00:07:36,080 Speaker 1: been scored. Those are things that you can't do, even 149 00:07:36,080 --> 00:07:39,160 Speaker 1: if you're trying to manipulate the system there. But with 150 00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:43,880 Speaker 1: this particular case, you're right, it was completely random. You 151 00:07:43,960 --> 00:07:46,040 Speaker 1: don't know for sure even if it's coming out from 152 00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:48,720 Speaker 1: the team. Draymond could say, oh, you know what, Leg's 153 00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:50,560 Speaker 1: feeling good, I'm gonna give it a go out here. 154 00:07:51,000 --> 00:07:52,520 Speaker 1: Then he gets you a couple points, and all of 155 00:07:52,520 --> 00:07:55,679 Speaker 1: a sudden you're like, oh, well, now the overs have cashed. 156 00:07:56,320 --> 00:08:00,720 Speaker 1: But do you think that DraftKings was in the right 157 00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:04,040 Speaker 1: to wait it out? Like you said, why is it 158 00:08:04,080 --> 00:08:06,400 Speaker 1: that they took those extra days to look into it? 159 00:08:06,880 --> 00:08:08,600 Speaker 2: Well, first of all, I think they got hit harder 160 00:08:08,640 --> 00:08:12,240 Speaker 2: than any other book. My understanding is that most books 161 00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:17,520 Speaker 2: were down with Draymond props almost within minutes. DraftKings got 162 00:08:17,560 --> 00:08:20,440 Speaker 2: theirs off their straight bets, off the main markets on 163 00:08:20,480 --> 00:08:23,240 Speaker 2: the props. However, they stayed up in those Ingle game 164 00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:27,720 Speaker 2: parlay platform basically a glitch in the software, and that's 165 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 2: where everybody took advantage of it. So I think they 166 00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:32,840 Speaker 2: got hit a lot harder than a lot of books. 167 00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:34,880 Speaker 2: So it was a bigger decision of them. They were 168 00:08:34,920 --> 00:08:38,560 Speaker 2: probably unhappy with it. Secondly, as I mentioned that the 169 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 2: sports books, people think that, oh, these guys are just 170 00:08:42,559 --> 00:08:45,280 Speaker 2: trying not to pay me, Well, no, that's not really 171 00:08:45,280 --> 00:08:48,000 Speaker 2: always the case. You know, they have to talk to 172 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:51,400 Speaker 2: the regulators because if they don't, they end up getting fined, 173 00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:54,400 Speaker 2: and they don't want that. They want to be in compliance. 174 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:56,720 Speaker 2: And if they were to take a bet that was 175 00:08:56,720 --> 00:08:59,959 Speaker 2: past posted on a known event and this would have qualified, 176 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:01,920 Speaker 2: they could have gotten fined for it, so they would 177 00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:04,559 Speaker 2: have been paying out all of it to DraftKings credit. 178 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:06,800 Speaker 2: I would add also that they gave site credit to 179 00:09:06,840 --> 00:09:10,840 Speaker 2: people that had the overs on there, so they paid 180 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:13,439 Speaker 2: out those as well, So I don't I don't blame 181 00:09:13,520 --> 00:09:16,440 Speaker 2: DraftKings for taking a day or two to check it out. 182 00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:21,200 Speaker 2: We've seen rampant stack corrections. People have been betting that 183 00:09:21,240 --> 00:09:24,120 Speaker 2: have been impacted by it, and they correct those when 184 00:09:24,160 --> 00:09:25,600 Speaker 2: they come up, and maybe we don't find out for 185 00:09:25,600 --> 00:09:27,520 Speaker 2: a couple of days, maybe the NBA doesn't get around 186 00:09:27,520 --> 00:09:30,080 Speaker 2: to correcting it for a couple of days. So you 187 00:09:30,080 --> 00:09:33,120 Speaker 2: know why betters want their money. I understand they want 188 00:09:33,120 --> 00:09:34,920 Speaker 2: to get it quickly, but there has to be some 189 00:09:34,960 --> 00:09:37,080 Speaker 2: sort of patients in the book. Sometimes have to do 190 00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:38,000 Speaker 2: their due diligence. 191 00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:41,160 Speaker 1: So it wasn't so much DraftKings caving to public pressure 192 00:09:41,160 --> 00:09:43,280 Speaker 1: to pay out the bets as like you said, them 193 00:09:43,360 --> 00:09:46,600 Speaker 1: doing a due diligence and just making sure that they 194 00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:47,320 Speaker 1: were in the right. 195 00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:49,680 Speaker 2: I'm gonna say a little bit of both, probably because 196 00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:51,760 Speaker 2: you know, there was some public pressure. All the other 197 00:09:51,800 --> 00:09:55,520 Speaker 2: sports books did pay out very quickly. Again, DraftKings just 198 00:09:55,559 --> 00:09:58,760 Speaker 2: from the number of tickets that I've seen, and Draymond 199 00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:01,280 Speaker 2: Props got hit a lot harder than these other books. 200 00:10:01,280 --> 00:10:03,880 Speaker 2: They weren't unable. They were unable to get off the 201 00:10:04,280 --> 00:10:07,559 Speaker 2: Draymond Props off the single game parlays, and they got hurt. 202 00:10:07,679 --> 00:10:11,160 Speaker 2: So I think the pressure built on them as everybody 203 00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:13,079 Speaker 2: else paid out in the public it was inter and 204 00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:15,440 Speaker 2: up roar. But I also think they needed to take 205 00:10:15,440 --> 00:10:17,880 Speaker 2: their time and make sure that they did not bilout 206 00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:19,120 Speaker 2: any regulations. 207 00:10:19,559 --> 00:10:22,120 Speaker 1: Now, in the stock market, when a stock is getting 208 00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:25,800 Speaker 1: bought or sold in large quantities rapidly, there's fail safe 209 00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:29,160 Speaker 1: mechanisms in place to kind of stop trading and make 210 00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:32,760 Speaker 1: sure that there isn't too much damage done. Sportsbooks, they 211 00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:36,520 Speaker 1: don't have that same luxury. I've spent Admittedly, a very 212 00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:39,360 Speaker 1: small amount of time in the back room of one 213 00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:42,160 Speaker 1: seeing how all of that works, and a lot of 214 00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:46,160 Speaker 1: it is actually just manual operation. It is people physically 215 00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:49,080 Speaker 1: pressing a button saying okay, this is now off the board, 216 00:10:49,880 --> 00:10:53,400 Speaker 1: and like you said, everybody took their props down very quickly. 217 00:10:53,440 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 1: It was kind of like when credible news leaks about 218 00:10:56,920 --> 00:11:00,760 Speaker 1: the national anthem over under, people go, okay, well we 219 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:02,960 Speaker 1: can't bet on that anymore. That news is out there 220 00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:06,760 Speaker 1: too much. But with this case, it was so rapid. 221 00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:10,960 Speaker 1: This news broke around eight thirty two and tip off 222 00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:13,560 Speaker 1: was at eight forty. I might have those times wrong. 223 00:11:14,480 --> 00:11:18,240 Speaker 1: It was a ten minute span right there. It's so rapid. 224 00:11:18,280 --> 00:11:20,200 Speaker 1: And like you said, they pulled the main odds off 225 00:11:20,280 --> 00:11:23,040 Speaker 1: the board, but those same game parlays. That's an automatic 226 00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:25,880 Speaker 1: computer system and that just didn't get pulled on DraftKings. 227 00:11:26,160 --> 00:11:29,080 Speaker 2: That's my understanding. Like you said, it is almost a 228 00:11:29,120 --> 00:11:33,120 Speaker 2: manual operation. There is what I understand is a search 229 00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:36,840 Speaker 2: function basically type in Draymond Green, remove everything with his 230 00:11:37,360 --> 00:11:40,600 Speaker 2: options on there. So they do have that kind of luxury. 231 00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 2: A lot of the sportsbooks said they do just this 232 00:11:42,760 --> 00:11:45,200 Speaker 2: one time for DraftKings. It did not somewek for some 233 00:11:45,240 --> 00:11:47,960 Speaker 2: reason did not get removed from the single game parlays. 234 00:11:48,280 --> 00:11:51,000 Speaker 1: And how much do you think it costs DraftKings and 235 00:11:51,160 --> 00:11:52,640 Speaker 1: all of these sportsbooks in general? 236 00:11:53,040 --> 00:11:55,559 Speaker 2: I saw over a million dollars in tickets on DraftKings 237 00:11:55,640 --> 00:11:59,439 Speaker 2: alone with some other guys. That's estimated across the market. 238 00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:02,680 Speaker 2: It got into the three million dollar range. Will never 239 00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:06,200 Speaker 2: know exactly for sure, but it was a multimillion dollar loss. 240 00:12:06,280 --> 00:12:08,480 Speaker 2: And you know, in what eight. 241 00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:12,120 Speaker 1: Minutes it does bring up a really great point when 242 00:12:12,640 --> 00:12:15,240 Speaker 1: you have a bad line in a sports book, When 243 00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:19,280 Speaker 1: say someone's entering odds and they accidentally enter an extra zero, 244 00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:23,520 Speaker 1: that's not a line you can actually take. That's considered 245 00:12:23,559 --> 00:12:26,520 Speaker 1: a bad number. It's considered a mistake. If you get 246 00:12:26,559 --> 00:12:29,640 Speaker 1: that line, you don't normally expect to be paid out 247 00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:30,200 Speaker 1: on that right. 248 00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:35,000 Speaker 2: It's a typo. You know. We as somebody that's more 249 00:12:35,080 --> 00:12:38,280 Speaker 2: familiar with with with the betting market, we know what 250 00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:41,800 Speaker 2: that rule is. Somebody that doesn't, they see it as 251 00:12:42,000 --> 00:12:43,680 Speaker 2: as a public better. They take jump on it and 252 00:12:43,679 --> 00:12:46,280 Speaker 2: they think it's completely fair game. I think back to 253 00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:49,960 Speaker 2: one of the first summers we had legalized sports betting 254 00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:52,360 Speaker 2: in a New Jersey fan duel put up try to 255 00:12:52,400 --> 00:12:54,520 Speaker 2: make the Broncos. I think it was six to one 256 00:12:54,559 --> 00:12:56,640 Speaker 2: on the thing. It ended up making them seventy five 257 00:12:56,679 --> 00:12:58,600 Speaker 2: to one. And this is a live line and the 258 00:12:58,640 --> 00:13:01,360 Speaker 2: final drive to go ahead and try to win the game, 259 00:13:01,640 --> 00:13:03,480 Speaker 2: and you know they seventy five to one is a 260 00:13:03,559 --> 00:13:06,000 Speaker 2: ridiculous number. A lot of guys that were brand new 261 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:07,920 Speaker 2: to betting jumped on it, thought nothing of it. They're 262 00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:10,320 Speaker 2: offering it, course it is legitimate. Went to a big, 263 00:13:10,360 --> 00:13:12,720 Speaker 2: big qusual ordeal and his FanDuel. Actually I ended up 264 00:13:12,720 --> 00:13:16,080 Speaker 2: having to put pay out. So most of those times 265 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:19,240 Speaker 2: they are called palpable errors. That it's what they're in 266 00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:22,360 Speaker 2: the UK. It's been something that has happened, and it's 267 00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:24,640 Speaker 2: a TYPEO like you said, you know, it's sometimes you 268 00:13:24,720 --> 00:13:27,320 Speaker 2: put Kentucky minus twenty seven and it should be Kentucky 269 00:13:27,320 --> 00:13:31,600 Speaker 2: plus twenty seven or whatever, and it happens, and if 270 00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:34,120 Speaker 2: betters try to capitalize it, they're going to end up 271 00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:38,320 Speaker 2: there's gonna be repercussions. The sportsbooks are going to say, okay, 272 00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:40,600 Speaker 2: you're done, you're not playing with my sports baker anymore, 273 00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:44,480 Speaker 2: or your limits are now a dollar. So you experience, 274 00:13:44,559 --> 00:13:48,120 Speaker 2: betters know not to take advantage of these inexperienced betters. 275 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:50,880 Speaker 2: They don't even they doesn't even they can't imagine that 276 00:13:50,880 --> 00:13:53,560 Speaker 2: there's gonna be some sort of air that they would make, 277 00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:55,280 Speaker 2: and they get mad they think they should win. 278 00:13:56,240 --> 00:13:59,120 Speaker 1: I completely agree with you. I remember that game, and 279 00:13:59,160 --> 00:14:02,640 Speaker 1: I remember that whole experience. I think Fandle didn't pay 280 00:14:02,679 --> 00:14:05,080 Speaker 1: out the full sum they pay. They kind of give 281 00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:06,960 Speaker 1: them like a fan experience as well as some of 282 00:14:06,960 --> 00:14:11,560 Speaker 1: the cash. But I remember having that discussion in Vegas 283 00:14:11,600 --> 00:14:14,520 Speaker 1: casinos and a lot of people were just saying the 284 00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:16,679 Speaker 1: Better was in the wrong there. It was an egregious 285 00:14:16,720 --> 00:14:20,560 Speaker 1: line because there's supposed to be a relationship between the 286 00:14:20,640 --> 00:14:24,120 Speaker 1: sports book and the sports better. And with the repeal 287 00:14:24,160 --> 00:14:26,640 Speaker 1: of PASPA and the legalization, we've now got twenty two 288 00:14:26,680 --> 00:14:29,040 Speaker 1: states who have joined in, with many more on the way. 289 00:14:30,160 --> 00:14:32,520 Speaker 1: It is something where we have, like you said, a 290 00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:35,480 Speaker 1: lot of new betters coming in who maybe don't understand 291 00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:38,880 Speaker 1: that relationship the way that the old old school types 292 00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:43,120 Speaker 1: from Vegas do see it. Where a sports book is 293 00:14:43,280 --> 00:14:45,600 Speaker 1: entering an agreement with you. The better side of the 294 00:14:45,640 --> 00:14:48,360 Speaker 1: agreement is you're not gonna take advantage of these bad numbers. 295 00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:51,680 Speaker 1: You're not going to try and abuse the system and 296 00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:54,160 Speaker 1: the sports book they're gonna do the same thing. They're 297 00:14:54,200 --> 00:14:56,480 Speaker 1: not gonna limit you at the counter. They're not going 298 00:14:56,560 --> 00:14:58,480 Speaker 1: to come up you try to place a bet and 299 00:14:58,480 --> 00:15:00,600 Speaker 1: they say, oh, you can't take that. Move the line 300 00:15:00,880 --> 00:15:04,040 Speaker 1: and then okay, now you can take it. That agreement 301 00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:06,200 Speaker 1: is supposed to work both ways, but with a lot 302 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:09,800 Speaker 1: of new gamblers coming in, it's kind of turning into 303 00:15:09,840 --> 00:15:12,000 Speaker 1: a bit of a one way street there right, a. 304 00:15:11,880 --> 00:15:14,280 Speaker 2: Lot of new gamblers and a lot of new bookmakers. 305 00:15:14,440 --> 00:15:17,320 Speaker 2: Now we think about it, you know, the only experienced 306 00:15:17,320 --> 00:15:21,520 Speaker 2: guys we had were basically in Nevada or you're running 307 00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:24,920 Speaker 2: your little local sport book, you know, either offshore, paper 308 00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:27,000 Speaker 2: head or thing like that. So we also have a 309 00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:29,240 Speaker 2: lot of new companies that are into the book making world, 310 00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:30,560 Speaker 2: and so I'm not going to put this all on 311 00:15:30,600 --> 00:15:33,760 Speaker 2: the betters. We had an incident with Barshool's sports book 312 00:15:33,760 --> 00:15:37,360 Speaker 2: in Colorado recently. A guy, a gentleman says that he 313 00:15:37,440 --> 00:15:39,520 Speaker 2: went up to the counter to place a bet on 314 00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 2: the draft. It was like under five and a half 315 00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:46,280 Speaker 2: on Calvin Thibodeau's or cave on Thibodeau's draft position. Something 316 00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:49,160 Speaker 2: like that, and they took the bet, they printed the ticket, 317 00:15:49,240 --> 00:15:50,600 Speaker 2: and then all of a sudden they ran his id 318 00:15:50,720 --> 00:15:52,520 Speaker 2: and said, oh wait a second, we're only going to 319 00:15:52,560 --> 00:15:55,360 Speaker 2: take this amount for you, and not only that, we're 320 00:15:55,360 --> 00:15:58,160 Speaker 2: only getting off you these odds. They changed the odds 321 00:15:58,320 --> 00:16:00,800 Speaker 2: and that is completely you know, served to me. That's 322 00:16:00,800 --> 00:16:01,880 Speaker 2: a bait and switch, right. 323 00:16:02,160 --> 00:16:05,200 Speaker 1: And this is after he already has the ticket. 324 00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:07,680 Speaker 2: I think that's going to be the debate because whether 325 00:16:07,720 --> 00:16:09,720 Speaker 2: I don't know if they actually handed in the ticket, 326 00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:12,160 Speaker 2: and you know, yeah, I'm here in only one side 327 00:16:12,160 --> 00:16:15,560 Speaker 2: of the story. So Colorado Gaming Division of Gaming is 328 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:18,120 Speaker 2: looking into it. But when we talk about the relationship 329 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:21,000 Speaker 2: between the betters and the bookmakers, we not only have 330 00:16:21,160 --> 00:16:27,440 Speaker 2: new betters that are inexperienced and act emotionally when something 331 00:16:27,520 --> 00:16:30,560 Speaker 2: doesn't quite go what they think it should because they 332 00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:32,920 Speaker 2: don't know quite the rules or don't have the experience. 333 00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:36,400 Speaker 2: We have the same with the bookmakers. Bookmakers are not 334 00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:39,720 Speaker 2: acting all the time and honor and maybe that's sometimes 335 00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:42,960 Speaker 2: because they don't have the experience. They don't realize the 336 00:16:43,040 --> 00:16:46,960 Speaker 2: repercussions of what they're doing. And it's unfair both sides. 337 00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:51,000 Speaker 1: I completely agree with you there It is it's supposed 338 00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:52,720 Speaker 1: to be a two way street, and with both the 339 00:16:52,760 --> 00:16:55,840 Speaker 1: new bookmakers and the new betters coming in, we're seeing 340 00:16:55,960 --> 00:16:58,240 Speaker 1: a lot of that starting to degrade because on the 341 00:16:58,320 --> 00:17:02,160 Speaker 1: on the bookmaker side, you said there's problems with switching odds, 342 00:17:02,160 --> 00:17:05,040 Speaker 1: there's a lot of problems with sharp players, specifically that 343 00:17:05,080 --> 00:17:08,280 Speaker 1: a lot of these new books don't want sharp action. 344 00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:12,520 Speaker 1: They're only looking for those public inexperienced betters. And I 345 00:17:12,560 --> 00:17:14,560 Speaker 1: feel like that's a double edged sword because on the 346 00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:17,119 Speaker 1: one hand, I understand you're a company that's trying to 347 00:17:17,119 --> 00:17:19,639 Speaker 1: make money. Of course you don't want to be paying 348 00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:22,640 Speaker 1: out winners. But on the other hand, there's a lot 349 00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:25,399 Speaker 1: of predatory practices that can come up that you're not 350 00:17:25,520 --> 00:17:28,840 Speaker 1: even thinking of, some of the even more basic ones 351 00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:31,080 Speaker 1: that are taking advantage of some of these betters. Or 352 00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:35,240 Speaker 1: when you see a line with minus one twenty five 353 00:17:35,320 --> 00:17:38,000 Speaker 1: juice each way, experience betters are going to see that 354 00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:40,119 Speaker 1: and they're going to know, okay, you're you're ripping me 355 00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:43,080 Speaker 1: off here. There should be minus one ten. A lot 356 00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:45,359 Speaker 1: of novice betters they're not going to notice that. They're 357 00:17:45,400 --> 00:17:47,360 Speaker 1: just going to be like, Okay, that's the line. I'm 358 00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:51,399 Speaker 1: going to take that. Where do you fall on this debate? 359 00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:55,320 Speaker 1: Where is the balance between a company wanting to make 360 00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:58,000 Speaker 1: money and these practices are getting a little predatory? 361 00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:00,320 Speaker 2: Man? I wish I had a good answer or this 362 00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:02,639 Speaker 2: is something that I have tried to figure out for 363 00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:06,600 Speaker 2: years on years on years, because like you said, these 364 00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:09,520 Speaker 2: are companies, these are businesses. You are allowed to try 365 00:18:09,560 --> 00:18:13,120 Speaker 2: to make money and they are allowed to offer their business, 366 00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:16,679 Speaker 2: whether right or wrong to who they choose to. Some 367 00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:20,360 Speaker 2: people bring in discrimination and terms like that. I think 368 00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:23,400 Speaker 2: that's a little bit on the extreme side in my opinion, 369 00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:26,680 Speaker 2: But I don't have a good answer. The one thing 370 00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:29,639 Speaker 2: that I would like to see happen is what we 371 00:18:29,720 --> 00:18:32,399 Speaker 2: call minimum bet liabilities. And these are things that have 372 00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:35,719 Speaker 2: been tried in other markets, Australian in the UK, and 373 00:18:35,760 --> 00:18:38,000 Speaker 2: that is you have to if you're a book maker 374 00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:40,560 Speaker 2: and you get a license, you have to agree to 375 00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:43,920 Speaker 2: take a posted a limit. You post your limit right 376 00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:45,960 Speaker 2: on there and you have to agree to take that 377 00:18:46,040 --> 00:18:48,920 Speaker 2: bet to win that amount, whether that is to win 378 00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:51,639 Speaker 2: five hundred dollars on a market or two hundred dollars 379 00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 2: on a market, you have to have that posted and 380 00:18:54,119 --> 00:18:56,720 Speaker 2: you will take that bet from anyone that is eligible. 381 00:18:57,359 --> 00:18:59,280 Speaker 2: I would like to see us try that. It hasn't 382 00:18:59,280 --> 00:19:01,200 Speaker 2: had a lot of success in other areas and it's 383 00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:04,840 Speaker 2: hurt the books the bucks bottom line. But at some 384 00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:09,080 Speaker 2: point they have to take responsibility for how they are 385 00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:11,639 Speaker 2: doing business, and right now they are not held to 386 00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:15,640 Speaker 2: a high enough standard in my opinion, by regulators. Now. 387 00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:19,199 Speaker 2: The one thing that may change that is we're going 388 00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:22,120 Speaker 2: to see some consolidation. Some of these smaller books are 389 00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:26,560 Speaker 2: going to eventually be acquisite acquisition targets. Right, They're going 390 00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:28,760 Speaker 2: to be acquired and we're going to get down to 391 00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:32,159 Speaker 2: fewer and fewer books. While that will be bad for 392 00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:35,359 Speaker 2: line shopping, I think it will allow those sports books 393 00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:39,280 Speaker 2: to be more lenient with the action that they take. 394 00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:43,159 Speaker 2: So hopefully that is a direction that we get to 395 00:19:43,359 --> 00:19:46,679 Speaker 2: where we have some sort of requirements. Circus Sports in 396 00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:51,200 Speaker 2: Las Vegas is just moved over to Illinois. Also in Iowa, Colorado, 397 00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:53,840 Speaker 2: they are very good about that. You go onto their 398 00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:55,600 Speaker 2: app and this is how much you can bet on 399 00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:58,840 Speaker 2: this market. Anybody boom done right, that should be something 400 00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:00,440 Speaker 2: that I think needs to be acquired. 401 00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:05,080 Speaker 1: Yeah. I actually I spent about a month working in 402 00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:06,840 Speaker 1: the book there. It was not a long stay, but 403 00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:10,720 Speaker 1: it was a very fascinating stay because they do make 404 00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:13,960 Speaker 1: that part of their brand as a book saying we 405 00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:15,720 Speaker 1: will take your action, and there are a lot of 406 00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:19,439 Speaker 1: books that frankly won't take a lot of action right now. 407 00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:22,760 Speaker 1: And I again, I understand the balance of wanting to 408 00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:25,399 Speaker 1: make money. But what I found interesting there was the 409 00:20:25,520 --> 00:20:28,960 Speaker 1: point about as these smaller books get bought up, we're 410 00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:33,040 Speaker 1: going to see fewer, smaller amounts of competition. It's going 411 00:20:33,080 --> 00:20:35,520 Speaker 1: to hurt line shopping. But you do think that that 412 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:37,639 Speaker 1: Why is it that you think that it's going to 413 00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:39,400 Speaker 1: make books more lenient. 414 00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:42,320 Speaker 2: Because you'll have more volume, You'll have more volume to 415 00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:46,760 Speaker 2: manage your risk with, right, You'll have more handle to 416 00:20:46,840 --> 00:20:49,880 Speaker 2: work with, so that will give you a little more 417 00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:52,760 Speaker 2: and then you'll be battling for more and more customers. 418 00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:55,720 Speaker 2: Now we talk about everybody getting limited, and we've seen 419 00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:58,000 Speaker 2: other tickets. There's lots of them, right, it seems like 420 00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:01,639 Speaker 2: a lot. It's still a very small, small percentage. And 421 00:21:02,280 --> 00:21:05,959 Speaker 2: you know we just talked before off camera, the handle 422 00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:08,960 Speaker 2: goes up every month almost right, So if all these 423 00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:11,639 Speaker 2: people are limited, they're still finding ways to get their 424 00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:14,840 Speaker 2: money into the market. Should it be as difficult as 425 00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:17,720 Speaker 2: it is. Absolutely not. Should you have to go find, 426 00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:20,840 Speaker 2: you know, hire your girlfriend or your aunt to open 427 00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:23,480 Speaker 2: up accounts so you can bet where you know, That's 428 00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:26,800 Speaker 2: not how it should work. Books should be more. You know, 429 00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:29,680 Speaker 2: you're either going to get in through the front door 430 00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:32,240 Speaker 2: or the back door, right yeah, yeah, And I just 431 00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:35,800 Speaker 2: think if I'm a bookmaker, I'd rather know who's coming 432 00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:39,000 Speaker 2: in now. If I let those people start betting, if 433 00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:40,840 Speaker 2: I let the sharp betters do, I think suddenly they're 434 00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:42,840 Speaker 2: gonna be okay, cool, They're giving me a thousand bucks 435 00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:46,520 Speaker 2: on this, that's all I really need. No, they'll start 436 00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:48,720 Speaker 2: betters are going to try to find any way they 437 00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:51,560 Speaker 2: can to get down as much money as possible. So 438 00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:57,240 Speaker 2: I wish I knew the answer to this debate, because gosh, 439 00:21:57,280 --> 00:21:59,480 Speaker 2: I just don't know if there is one. I think 440 00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:02,679 Speaker 2: this is going to be an ongoing thing throughout sports betting. 441 00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:06,720 Speaker 1: We are asking a lot of big questions here, a 442 00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:11,640 Speaker 1: lot of tough to answer questions. But with the minimum bet, 443 00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:14,720 Speaker 1: with the minimum bet limits that you were talking about, 444 00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:18,439 Speaker 1: it kind of brings us back into the whole crux 445 00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:20,959 Speaker 1: of this debate. Like you said, a lot of these 446 00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:24,439 Speaker 1: betters that got down on this particular event found themselves 447 00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:28,280 Speaker 1: limited the next day. And this is a little bit 448 00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:30,879 Speaker 1: different than trying to limit sharp action. This is something 449 00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:33,480 Speaker 1: that books kind of has have as a retaliatory measure 450 00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:37,480 Speaker 1: to limit people from taking advantage of bad lines DraftKings 451 00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:39,520 Speaker 1: to their full credit. They paid this, they paid the 452 00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:42,000 Speaker 1: bet out, they gave the over betters their credit back, 453 00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:45,840 Speaker 1: but then the people that took the line found themselves 454 00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:50,440 Speaker 1: with these lower limits. That's fair retaliation, or at least 455 00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:53,240 Speaker 1: it's seen as fair retaliation from the sports books. Right. 456 00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:56,080 Speaker 2: I don't know if i'd say it fair, but it's expected, 457 00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:59,879 Speaker 2: it's realistic, it's going to happen, and that is something 458 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:02,600 Speaker 2: that you have to consider at this point. And I 459 00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:04,720 Speaker 2: talked to several people. I had a section in my 460 00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:07,239 Speaker 2: article about this, and we'd ended up taking it out. 461 00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:08,679 Speaker 2: It was just kind of two in the weeds. But 462 00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:13,320 Speaker 2: you have to really factor that in when your decision making. Okay, 463 00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:16,120 Speaker 2: I can make a pretty good score here on Draymond 464 00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:18,320 Speaker 2: Green because he's only going to play a matter of 465 00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:22,760 Speaker 2: seconds on the unders, but I know that this sports 466 00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:24,600 Speaker 2: book is not going to be happy with this, and 467 00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:26,880 Speaker 2: they are going to reduce my limits. Do I make 468 00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:29,560 Speaker 2: enough money to burn this account? Do I have other 469 00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:31,879 Speaker 2: ways to get back a different account? Do I have 470 00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:34,560 Speaker 2: enough accounts to other sports books where I can continue 471 00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:36,480 Speaker 2: to do it. It's something that you have to weigh in. 472 00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:39,240 Speaker 2: And in this case, some guys won six figures and 473 00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:42,200 Speaker 2: in my opinion, knowing that would be enough for me 474 00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:45,320 Speaker 2: to burn my account for sure. So and that's what 475 00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:45,840 Speaker 2: they did. 476 00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:50,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'd definitely be tempted. There the Devil's advocate portion 477 00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:54,800 Speaker 1: of this. It's not like the betters were taking a 478 00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:58,600 Speaker 1: bad line. They were taking advantage of information online, which 479 00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:01,600 Speaker 1: books take information and bake it into the line every day. 480 00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:04,760 Speaker 1: But where this gets a little dicey is when you 481 00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:06,879 Speaker 1: talk about the glitch in the system. How they didn't 482 00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:09,680 Speaker 1: pull down the same game parlay options. They pulled down 483 00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:12,040 Speaker 1: the main odds, but you could still get down that 484 00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:15,000 Speaker 1: other way. Was it truly a glitch in the system 485 00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:17,480 Speaker 1: that made it a bad line or was this kind 486 00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:21,080 Speaker 1: of just like you said, we don't know for sure. 487 00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:24,200 Speaker 1: There is an element of risk still here that Draymond 488 00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:27,040 Speaker 1: is going to play. It's not like the underbetters would 489 00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:28,840 Speaker 1: have gotten their money back had he ended up playing 490 00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:30,719 Speaker 1: perfect world. 491 00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:34,800 Speaker 2: This should not be penalized, right, Yeah, nothing to use 492 00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:37,680 Speaker 2: this as a game of information. I'm looking for information. 493 00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:39,800 Speaker 2: I want to bet it into the market before that 494 00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:42,440 Speaker 2: information gets the market, which you're always looking for, right, 495 00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:45,879 Speaker 2: Information that's not factored into the current odds or line. 496 00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:51,040 Speaker 2: Real world, it's going to happen. You're going to get penalized. 497 00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:55,480 Speaker 2: The sportsbooks are going to try to take protect put 498 00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:58,160 Speaker 2: to protect themselves from this kind of situation if they 499 00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:02,159 Speaker 2: see some people like this that use that information and 500 00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:04,520 Speaker 2: go after it. Whether we both agree that there is 501 00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:07,760 Speaker 2: nothing should nothing that they did wrong, but the real 502 00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:11,600 Speaker 2: world is you're going to have face some retribution. 503 00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:17,040 Speaker 1: And that's an interesting point there. Information in this day 504 00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:19,480 Speaker 1: and age especially, one of the most common things, and 505 00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:22,600 Speaker 1: you talk about it in your article, is a lot 506 00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:24,679 Speaker 1: of these discord chats, which, by the way, guys, you 507 00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:27,760 Speaker 1: can actually join the betting pros discord channel. Now just 508 00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:30,840 Speaker 1: saying got to plug that in there, But these discord 509 00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:34,960 Speaker 1: channels are a great way to get unmoderated information. This 510 00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:38,920 Speaker 1: is a relatively private space that can reach a massive 511 00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:42,399 Speaker 1: group of people like it did in this particular event, 512 00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:44,840 Speaker 1: and all of a sudden you have books being rushed 513 00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:48,120 Speaker 1: by hundreds, if not potentially thousands of people all trying 514 00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:50,639 Speaker 1: to bet the same thing at one time. Because again, 515 00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:53,720 Speaker 1: all of this happened in a span of eight minutes. 516 00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:55,520 Speaker 2: It moves that. 517 00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:58,120 Speaker 1: Quickly, and we got to the point where eventually Shams 518 00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:01,520 Speaker 1: was tweeting it out and that just circulated it to 519 00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:05,120 Speaker 1: millions and millions of people. But can something like that 520 00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:09,320 Speaker 1: become a massive problem for the books when you're able 521 00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:10,800 Speaker 1: to target an event like this. 522 00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:14,679 Speaker 2: Oh, I definitely think so, not only in your sports 523 00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:18,760 Speaker 2: betting communities online, but you also have now have like 524 00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:21,640 Speaker 2: the influencers you're Pat McAfee's and so forth that are 525 00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:24,120 Speaker 2: giving out Vandal says when he'll give out a single game, 526 00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:27,719 Speaker 2: same game parlay, they'll get, you know, one hundred thousand 527 00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:31,440 Speaker 2: bets on that specific same game parlay. Imagine if one 528 00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:33,359 Speaker 2: of those hits and it's you know, one hundred and 529 00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:35,720 Speaker 2: one odds or whatever, it's going to be a massive thing. 530 00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:40,160 Speaker 2: So the way that the bet is, the bets are concentrated, 531 00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:43,600 Speaker 2: I guess I should say these communities are are teaming 532 00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:46,040 Speaker 2: up and getting in all on one thing. I definitely 533 00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:50,639 Speaker 2: think that that causes some risk. Now, let's think about 534 00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:53,840 Speaker 2: the cushy margins that you have on these same game parlays, 535 00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:55,720 Speaker 2: and nobody is stopping saying. Game parlay has had a 536 00:26:55,800 --> 00:26:59,000 Speaker 2: quote in the article from Johnny Avello, sportsbook director. He said, yeah, 537 00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:02,280 Speaker 2: they're tough. Liabilities are tough, but I'm certainly not going 538 00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:04,320 Speaker 2: to stop people from betting them. You know, they want 539 00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:08,480 Speaker 2: you to bet these things because they're really good margins 540 00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:11,800 Speaker 2: on the same game parlays. Eventually, will one be very 541 00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:13,280 Speaker 2: very costly, I believe so. 542 00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:16,679 Speaker 1: I mean, that's kind of how it is with it's 543 00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:20,760 Speaker 1: the it's the inverse of bridge jumper betting, the people 544 00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:24,280 Speaker 1: that bet massive amounts of money on very heavily juiced 545 00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:27,440 Speaker 1: events and then when one of those goes the other 546 00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:31,600 Speaker 1: way on the upset, you lose everything. But in this case, 547 00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:35,000 Speaker 1: obviously the books are amassing all of that money and 548 00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:36,800 Speaker 1: then it's the well, one's gonna hit and you're gonna 549 00:27:36,800 --> 00:27:36,960 Speaker 1: have to. 550 00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:39,680 Speaker 2: Give it back lottery ticket, right, Yep. 551 00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:43,159 Speaker 1: That's how it goes. And that's another big thing that 552 00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:46,440 Speaker 1: you talk about in the article, because there was another 553 00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:51,320 Speaker 1: event on that exact same night that was an even 554 00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:54,359 Speaker 1: bigger liability potential for the books because of the amount 555 00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:56,600 Speaker 1: of people who had money down on it, and that 556 00:27:56,680 --> 00:27:59,560 Speaker 1: was the Raiders charge your final regular season game in 557 00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:02,679 Speaker 1: the NFELL. Everybody in the world was watching, or at 558 00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:06,040 Speaker 1: least everybody in America saying, oh, wow, we could get 559 00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:09,680 Speaker 1: a tie. It was the first incident in American sports 560 00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:13,240 Speaker 1: in history where Americans were actually rooting for a tie game. 561 00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:15,520 Speaker 1: The Raiders and Chargers both megan and the playoffs with 562 00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:19,760 Speaker 1: a tie. And because that picked up steam throughout the 563 00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:21,919 Speaker 1: course of the day where everyone said, hey, wait a second, 564 00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:25,359 Speaker 1: these tie breakers all worked out this way. Everybody was 565 00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:27,879 Speaker 1: pouring money in on this, and it created a monstrous 566 00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:28,919 Speaker 1: liability for the book. 567 00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:32,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, one of the biggest liabilities that Fando had ever faced. 568 00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:35,640 Speaker 2: Goes around for most books too, And the difference here 569 00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:37,479 Speaker 2: is that we had quite a bit of run up 570 00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:41,160 Speaker 2: on this. The scenario started getting some exposure in the 571 00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:44,440 Speaker 2: media that if the Jaguars beat the Colts and the 572 00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:48,360 Speaker 2: Steelers beat the Ravens, that a Chargers Raiders tie was 573 00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:50,560 Speaker 2: in both teams to the playoffs, and that started getting 574 00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:53,400 Speaker 2: talked about early in the week, and books started seeing 575 00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:56,320 Speaker 2: money on it. And you know, when you look at 576 00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:59,880 Speaker 2: what a typical tie would be pay at it's about 577 00:28:59,880 --> 00:29:01,840 Speaker 2: a hundred and fifty to one at sportsbooks for an 578 00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:04,720 Speaker 2: NFL game. Oh less than one percent of NFL games 579 00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:08,520 Speaker 2: have ever finished in a tie since they implemented overtime, 580 00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:11,400 Speaker 2: and I think it was nineteen seventy four and back then, 581 00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:14,760 Speaker 2: So it's been very, very very rarely happens, and to 582 00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:16,360 Speaker 2: get you know, one hundred and fifty to one or 583 00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:18,280 Speaker 2: not even really good odds of it happening, but that's 584 00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:21,280 Speaker 2: usually what you get. But so much money came in 585 00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:24,560 Speaker 2: on that tie because people started correlating it. Jaguars are 586 00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:27,640 Speaker 2: fourteen point dogs, you know, so if I parlay a 587 00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:30,760 Speaker 2: fourteen point dog money line winner and then I parlay 588 00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:33,560 Speaker 2: a tie, and you're getting like one thousand to one odd, 589 00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:36,560 Speaker 2: seven hundred to one odd something like that. So the 590 00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:40,320 Speaker 2: liability that was built up on that tie was just crazy. 591 00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:42,440 Speaker 2: And then for it to come down to the final 592 00:29:42,480 --> 00:29:46,120 Speaker 2: game of the regular season and the exact scenario that 593 00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:49,560 Speaker 2: needed made it viable for the Raiders to consider, Boy, 594 00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:51,760 Speaker 2: if we kicked this field goal, then it's blocked and 595 00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:54,160 Speaker 2: they return it, we're out of the playoffs. We kneel 596 00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:57,120 Speaker 2: down and run out the clock. We're both in the playoffs. 597 00:29:57,160 --> 00:30:00,479 Speaker 2: Just for that to play out like that alone, that 598 00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:02,840 Speaker 2: was one of the most amazing nights that I can 599 00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:06,080 Speaker 2: ever remember my career covering sports betting, and I didn't 600 00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:08,200 Speaker 2: even know the green thing was going on at that time. 601 00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:12,120 Speaker 2: So wild night, January night, twenty twenty two. We want 602 00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:13,720 Speaker 2: to go down to history in gambling for. 603 00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:17,160 Speaker 1: Sure, guys, real quick. Remember when you're looking for free 604 00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:20,360 Speaker 1: picks and sports betting advice, bettingpros dot com has you 605 00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:23,000 Speaker 1: covered with tips from over one hundred and fifty experts 606 00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:25,840 Speaker 1: to make it easy for you to cash out. Download 607 00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:28,120 Speaker 1: the app to get sports betting alerts. You'll get notified 608 00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:31,480 Speaker 1: of favorable bets based online movements, consensus picks from the 609 00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:35,320 Speaker 1: most accurate experts and vetted systems. In play, Betting Pros 610 00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:38,520 Speaker 1: monitors all of the major sports books, most accurate experts, 611 00:30:38,520 --> 00:30:42,920 Speaker 1: and top systems to identify the best betting opportunities. So 612 00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:46,000 Speaker 1: download today in the Apple or Google play storms. 613 00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:49,040 Speaker 2: You know, what are the book books? What could have 614 00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:51,680 Speaker 2: the books done differently to avoid that? I'm just not 615 00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:55,160 Speaker 2: sure that there was anything, because you can't make a 616 00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:57,920 Speaker 2: fourteen point underdog, you know, plus two hundred on the 617 00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:00,760 Speaker 2: money line, they were around six to one on the 618 00:31:00,760 --> 00:31:02,640 Speaker 2: money line. That's normally what you did. You have to 619 00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:04,720 Speaker 2: do it. And then to think that you're going to 620 00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:08,400 Speaker 2: offer something ridiculous on the tie that's correlated to it, 621 00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:10,520 Speaker 2: that just seems silly. But then the thing that you 622 00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:13,880 Speaker 2: mentioned all the creative ways that guys are going for, 623 00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:16,480 Speaker 2: well you know what that did. That really murkied up 624 00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:19,440 Speaker 2: how the liability was. It was very difficult for all 625 00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:22,360 Speaker 2: the books to see exactly how much were And that's 626 00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:26,760 Speaker 2: why I think there's the doomsday scenario that they don't realize. 627 00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:30,160 Speaker 2: They can't see betters have gotten creative and they just 628 00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:34,160 Speaker 2: work this huge, massive, massive liability that night. I'll tell you, 629 00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:38,440 Speaker 2: I talked to several books and I could tell that 630 00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:40,760 Speaker 2: they did not know how much they were on the hook. 631 00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:46,000 Speaker 1: For, right, Yeah, and there's bad Yeah. Those computer systems 632 00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:49,480 Speaker 1: they don't they don't tell you exactly all of the 633 00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:52,360 Speaker 1: different permutations. You can't just enter how much do we 634 00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:55,000 Speaker 1: owe if this if this game ends like this, it 635 00:31:55,000 --> 00:31:58,440 Speaker 1: doesn't work that way. And with same game parlays too, 636 00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:01,720 Speaker 1: you get to the point where your liability is really 637 00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:04,640 Speaker 1: a mystery until the game finishes out and the other 638 00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:07,360 Speaker 1: important thing here. This was the complete opposite of the 639 00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:10,160 Speaker 1: Draymont scenario. The Draymont scenario was a bunch of betters 640 00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:13,120 Speaker 1: jumping in on something that they had a very reputable 641 00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:16,520 Speaker 1: tip was going to happen. This was pure chance there. 642 00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:19,480 Speaker 1: Like you said, what defense does sportsbooks have for this? 643 00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:23,880 Speaker 1: It was a true black Swan event where everything just 644 00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:26,040 Speaker 1: kind of fell into place. You had a fourteen point 645 00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:28,680 Speaker 1: dog win outright against a team that needed to make 646 00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:30,160 Speaker 1: the play. As a matter of fact, the fourteen point 647 00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:33,200 Speaker 1: dog screwed the almost screwed their draft position up because 648 00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:36,719 Speaker 1: of winning the game. And then you factor that in 649 00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:38,920 Speaker 1: with okay, well, the other game fell the way it 650 00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:41,240 Speaker 1: needed to, And now it all comes down to this. 651 00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:47,040 Speaker 1: What can a book even do when a doomsday scenario 652 00:32:47,080 --> 00:32:50,440 Speaker 1: like this actually does hit, Because it's probably going to 653 00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:52,640 Speaker 1: happen one day, what's that going to look like for 654 00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:53,080 Speaker 1: a book? 655 00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:56,240 Speaker 2: Well, you know, I think the largest books will be 656 00:32:56,280 --> 00:33:01,720 Speaker 2: able to endure they hit, But the smaller books, I 657 00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:05,000 Speaker 2: don't know. I think it will be very, very, very damaging. 658 00:33:05,600 --> 00:33:08,200 Speaker 2: In the UK, there was a jockey who once won 659 00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:11,040 Speaker 2: six races in a row. I think it was an 660 00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:14,840 Speaker 2: eight race event or something along those well, anyway, I 661 00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:16,959 Speaker 2: talked to a couple of the US about this and 662 00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:18,880 Speaker 2: they said, you know that if you would have won 663 00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:20,800 Speaker 2: two more, there would have been some bookmakers I would 664 00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:24,560 Speaker 2: have been out of business. They would have had insolvency issues. 665 00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:28,400 Speaker 2: So hopefully we never get to that point. But the 666 00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:31,360 Speaker 2: thought is, you know, I don't know how to really 667 00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:35,680 Speaker 2: necessarily stop it because betters are so creative because of 668 00:33:35,720 --> 00:33:38,080 Speaker 2: the same game parlays are so hard to track the 669 00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:42,680 Speaker 2: liability and if something correlated happens and betters get on board. 670 00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:45,800 Speaker 2: They love the betting public loves to jump on storylines 671 00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:48,040 Speaker 2: that are kind of funny. If you remember in the 672 00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:50,400 Speaker 2: Super Bowl there was a Simpson meme that went out 673 00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:53,240 Speaker 2: that I think had the Rams winning by a certain score, 674 00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:55,920 Speaker 2: maybe Engles. Anyway, there was a ton of bets on 675 00:33:56,000 --> 00:33:58,400 Speaker 2: that on VANDULE and it turned out to be kind 676 00:33:58,440 --> 00:34:03,960 Speaker 2: of a manipulated meme. But you know, it happens, and 677 00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:06,760 Speaker 2: whether it's from a discord channel like one of your own, 678 00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:08,399 Speaker 2: that people get in there and they get a tip 679 00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:11,319 Speaker 2: and everybody gets on board, or if it's just from 680 00:34:11,360 --> 00:34:15,400 Speaker 2: a general public storyline perspective, there is a chance that 681 00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:17,880 Speaker 2: we get some sort of concentrated bets on a long 682 00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:22,120 Speaker 2: shot black swan event that's going to do some serious damage. 683 00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:24,440 Speaker 1: And the same game parla is. Like you said, they 684 00:34:24,440 --> 00:34:27,360 Speaker 1: can make that so much murkier. But at the same note, 685 00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:29,880 Speaker 1: they make so much money for the books. They're not 686 00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:33,400 Speaker 1: something that they're gonna quit doing. But they're a very 687 00:34:33,400 --> 00:34:37,280 Speaker 1: interesting new development. It's kind of like in game betting 688 00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:40,200 Speaker 1: that was not a thing twenty years ago, before the 689 00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:43,680 Speaker 1: advent of mobile bet mobile gaming and everything that the 690 00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:47,040 Speaker 1: technology has brought us. But back in the old days, 691 00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:50,640 Speaker 1: you simply could not parlay same game events together. Those 692 00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:53,680 Speaker 1: the books wouldn't take that action because those bets are 693 00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:56,520 Speaker 1: too those bets are two correlated. They wouldn't want to 694 00:34:56,760 --> 00:34:59,960 Speaker 1: work out the line because the math involved there would 695 00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:03,279 Speaker 1: be too crazy for them to do. Nowadays, things have 696 00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:04,960 Speaker 1: gotten a little bit different, and as a matter of fact, 697 00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:06,600 Speaker 1: I do remember, I believe it was the two thousand 698 00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:09,040 Speaker 1: and eight Super Bowl where Caesars was actually letting you 699 00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:13,239 Speaker 1: parlay props together, and they took an absolute beating on 700 00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:15,680 Speaker 1: that game because of it, because it was a mistake 701 00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:17,120 Speaker 1: by them, but it was a mistake they made and 702 00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:19,359 Speaker 1: they had to pay out on it. These new same 703 00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:22,279 Speaker 1: game parlay odds. It's something more that we call it 704 00:35:22,360 --> 00:35:26,520 Speaker 1: the black box, where you go in, you take your parlay, 705 00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:28,920 Speaker 1: you craft it together, and you're not getting the true 706 00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:31,799 Speaker 1: odds on it. You're not getting this two to one 707 00:35:31,840 --> 00:35:34,279 Speaker 1: and this two to one come together and to give 708 00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:37,279 Speaker 1: you the actual odds. It is something where it goes 709 00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:40,080 Speaker 1: into an algorithm and the algorithm is baking the correlation 710 00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:42,839 Speaker 1: into the final number that you're getting. And you don't 711 00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:46,040 Speaker 1: see how that process works out. And that could also 712 00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:48,399 Speaker 1: be a danger for the books, right, it. 713 00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:51,200 Speaker 2: Could, But that's why the US is extra right. The 714 00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:54,040 Speaker 2: genidu are facing a huge huge margin in favor of 715 00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:56,880 Speaker 2: the sportsbooks when you're betting these same game parlays. Now, 716 00:35:57,640 --> 00:36:01,240 Speaker 2: does the correlation of the events and like the tie 717 00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:05,680 Speaker 2: overcome that margin. Some people think so something, they think 718 00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:08,960 Speaker 2: there are opportunities to do it, but most of the time, 719 00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:12,480 Speaker 2: you know, the margin you're facing betting same game parlays 720 00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:15,960 Speaker 2: is an overcomable. You're not going to be able to 721 00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:18,799 Speaker 2: beat that margin in a long term unless you get 722 00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:20,600 Speaker 2: into some sort of correlated event. 723 00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:24,560 Speaker 1: And with some of those correlated events, the other way 724 00:36:24,600 --> 00:36:26,719 Speaker 1: that this could potentially happen and you talk about it 725 00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:30,759 Speaker 1: in your article. There could be a crafty gambler. It's 726 00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:33,600 Speaker 1: not that the books are worried as much about an 727 00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:37,120 Speaker 1: entire discord channel getting on one parlay that pays out. 728 00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:41,719 Speaker 1: It's much more they're looking for someone who figures out 729 00:36:41,760 --> 00:36:44,520 Speaker 1: a way to manipulate the algorithm, who figures out, hey, 730 00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:46,439 Speaker 1: this is a gap in the system that we don't 731 00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:50,319 Speaker 1: know about, we can exploit this. It's more of those guys. 732 00:36:50,080 --> 00:36:52,160 Speaker 2: The glinch hunters, right, and that's what they call them, 733 00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:54,480 Speaker 2: glitch hunters. There are people that are dedicated and they 734 00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:58,280 Speaker 2: hire college kids to sit around and just scour through 735 00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:02,120 Speaker 2: sportsbook odds all the time looking for air maybe trying 736 00:37:02,120 --> 00:37:04,600 Speaker 2: to figure out how to take advantage of sign up bonuses, 737 00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:10,520 Speaker 2: bonus hunters. So there are those type of communities that 738 00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:13,560 Speaker 2: that that's how they approach it, that's what they're looking for, 739 00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:18,200 Speaker 2: and those people are very dangerous. There was a soccer 740 00:37:19,000 --> 00:37:21,719 Speaker 2: mishap and I think it's MLS or no, I think 741 00:37:21,719 --> 00:37:24,920 Speaker 2: it was trying it was European soccer or something. Anyway, 742 00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:28,560 Speaker 2: they had offered like a certain team plus five goals 743 00:37:28,640 --> 00:37:30,879 Speaker 2: or something like that. Something are a ridiculous amount, right, 744 00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:32,880 Speaker 2: And they only made it like minus two hundred on 745 00:37:32,920 --> 00:37:36,279 Speaker 2: the odds the price, so people spotted it and parlayed 746 00:37:36,320 --> 00:37:38,120 Speaker 2: it and bet it and bet it and bet it, 747 00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:40,960 Speaker 2: and eventually gaming, you know, they weren't going to pay off. 748 00:37:41,320 --> 00:37:43,319 Speaker 2: The sportsbook wasn't going to pay out, and gaming got 749 00:37:43,360 --> 00:37:47,400 Speaker 2: involved and basically forced them to pay out. So books 750 00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:50,040 Speaker 2: are on the hook for their mistakes basically, and that 751 00:37:50,120 --> 00:37:52,680 Speaker 2: has not always been in the case in the international markets, 752 00:37:53,280 --> 00:37:56,120 Speaker 2: but to the credit of US regulators, in my opinion, 753 00:37:56,400 --> 00:37:59,399 Speaker 2: they have held a books account. Now. What happens though, 754 00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:03,160 Speaker 2: if one of these mistakes equals one of those you know, 755 00:38:03,280 --> 00:38:07,440 Speaker 2: doomsday tens of millions, twenty of millions of dollars loss, 756 00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:11,279 Speaker 2: that would really really damage the book. What happens then, 757 00:38:11,440 --> 00:38:14,080 Speaker 2: I don't know, but it's something we have to pay 758 00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:14,600 Speaker 2: attention to. 759 00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:20,279 Speaker 1: I mean, nobody really knows, because it's uncharted territory that 760 00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:22,960 Speaker 1: we're entering here, and it's just one of the things 761 00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:25,480 Speaker 1: that is part and parcel with this new world of gambling. 762 00:38:25,520 --> 00:38:28,239 Speaker 1: We have all of the new great things, same game 763 00:38:28,280 --> 00:38:31,600 Speaker 1: parlays in game wagering, but they also come with some 764 00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:35,040 Speaker 1: of these risks, and even regulators don't really have the 765 00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:37,960 Speaker 1: foresight to look at these things and say, hey, this 766 00:38:38,120 --> 00:38:40,120 Speaker 1: is what we should be doing to get out in 767 00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:44,239 Speaker 1: front of these things. Right, I agree, Well, it is 768 00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:47,160 Speaker 1: going to be interesting to see. Do you think we 769 00:38:47,239 --> 00:38:49,960 Speaker 1: could eventually get to a day where a book becomes insolvent? 770 00:38:50,040 --> 00:38:53,440 Speaker 1: What would happen in a situation like that where a 771 00:38:53,440 --> 00:38:55,760 Speaker 1: book says we can't cover the best that we've taken. 772 00:38:55,560 --> 00:38:58,320 Speaker 2: On this, Well, you would probably have some sort of 773 00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:02,560 Speaker 2: bankrsty core co to go get involved. I'm sure there's 774 00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:06,440 Speaker 2: something in the regulations that would address this. Hopefully we 775 00:39:06,480 --> 00:39:09,200 Speaker 2: don't ever get to that point. Books get on and 776 00:39:10,040 --> 00:39:16,000 Speaker 2: handle their financial responsibilities appropriately, but you never know, because 777 00:39:16,520 --> 00:39:20,600 Speaker 2: wild things happened and trouble keeping the track of the 778 00:39:20,680 --> 00:39:24,040 Speaker 2: liability on it makes it a difficult challenge for everybody. 779 00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:27,239 Speaker 1: David, thank you so much for joining me today. It 780 00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:30,280 Speaker 1: was a fascinating discussion. Your article is up on ESPN 781 00:39:30,320 --> 00:39:32,239 Speaker 1: if anyone wants to check it out, we'll link it 782 00:39:32,520 --> 00:39:35,640 Speaker 1: below this video. It was a fascinating read. I really 783 00:39:35,680 --> 00:39:37,799 Speaker 1: appreciate your time. Thank you so much for coming on. 784 00:39:38,080 --> 00:39:39,280 Speaker 2: Hey, I appreciate you having. 785 00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:41,640 Speaker 1: Me once again. You can find him on Twitter at 786 00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:43,839 Speaker 1: David Purdham and you can find all of his work 787 00:39:44,080 --> 00:39:46,880 Speaker 1: at ESPN Chalk. I highly encourage you to go and 788 00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:51,040 Speaker 1: check it out. He is a fantastic sports betting mind 789 00:39:51,040 --> 00:39:53,360 Speaker 1: and it's been a pleasure having him on the show today. 790 00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:55,640 Speaker 1: We thank him so much for his time and guys, 791 00:39:55,640 --> 00:39:58,000 Speaker 1: I hope you enjoyed this episode as much as I did. 792 00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:02,080 Speaker 1: Black swan, betting events, relationship between bookmakers and betters, It's 793 00:40:02,120 --> 00:40:05,600 Speaker 1: all fascinating stuff that I love talking about. I hope 794 00:40:05,640 --> 00:40:08,640 Speaker 1: you enjoyed listening to it. You can catch me on Twitter, 795 00:40:08,680 --> 00:40:11,040 Speaker 1: at TV at work. If you want to give me 796 00:40:11,080 --> 00:40:13,319 Speaker 1: your thoughts, I would love to hear them, and you 797 00:40:13,360 --> 00:40:15,759 Speaker 1: can find me in the Betting Pros Discord. If you're 798 00:40:15,840 --> 00:40:18,200 Speaker 1: not a member already, sign up today. It is a 799 00:40:18,239 --> 00:40:21,239 Speaker 1: fantastic and friendly community that you want to be a 800 00:40:21,280 --> 00:40:24,000 Speaker 1: part of, talking sports betting all the time. There is 801 00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:26,680 Speaker 1: nothing better but for now, guys, that is going to 802 00:40:26,719 --> 00:40:29,000 Speaker 1: do it for us here on the Betting Pros Podcast. 803 00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:41,280 Speaker 1: It has been a pleasure. We will catch you next episode.