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Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper's Square, presented by Hard Rove bet We

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Speaker 1: are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the

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Speaker 1: betting show that makes the squares. Sharper makes the wise

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Speaker 1: guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman. I am joined

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Speaker 1: by my b ff, my companion, my compadre, professional better

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Speaker 1: Simon Hunter Ello.

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Speaker 2: Simon, Chad, how are we doing?

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Speaker 1: Listen? This is like our official Halloween episode. And for

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Speaker 1: those who don't know, Matt Mitchell is a fiend for

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Speaker 1: Halloween and all themed episodes, so I would expect it

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Speaker 1: to be very spooky today, spookier than the lines themselves. Simon,

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Speaker 1: I know you like to go out and celebrate Halloween.

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Speaker 1: It's what all single do in their thirties love to do.

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Speaker 3: Definitely back in the day all about it, you could

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Speaker 3: just go out and enjoy the festivities. Now I literally

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Speaker 3: do the old man move. I got a buddy who

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Speaker 3: lives a town next to me. It's one intent there's

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Speaker 3: a lot of people know. It's called Haddonfield, and they

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Speaker 3: really do it up. She's really old Victorian homes they

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Speaker 3: do up for Halloween, like literally make them like haunted houses,

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Speaker 3: and like a whole street gets blocked off and it's

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Speaker 3: a middle aged shit show. It's a really good time.

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Speaker 3: You basically just go there, walk from house to house, blackout,

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Speaker 3: maybe take some psychedelics, who knows, and it's a really

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Speaker 3: good time again because everyone's in a mask. You know,

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Speaker 3: if you're talking to a fifty year old or a

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Speaker 3: twenty year old, it's it's a really funny time. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: definitely going to be a fun night Friday.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I said to my wife this morning, so you know,

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Speaker 1: tomorrow's Halloween. How do we get the fuck out of

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Speaker 1: here and go somewhere so we can avoid it all?

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Speaker 1: She goes, what do you mean, there's so many kids

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Speaker 1: who are going to come by, we can't disappoint them.

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Speaker 1: I'm like, we don't even have kids at home. She goes,

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Speaker 1: I know, but all the kids in their costume, they're

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Speaker 1: so cute. We got to be here at least for

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Speaker 1: a little while. I lost that battle.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: My favorite thing, which you can do if you want

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Speaker 3: to have fun, is I saw there's a guy every

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Speaker 3: year he gives out potatoes.

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Speaker 1: Yeah I saw this.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, what's having this guy? Because kids come by, they're like,

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Speaker 2: I still have my potato from last year. I saved

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Speaker 2: it this whole year, and now I have another one.

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Speaker 2: I don't know.

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Speaker 3: I think it's just being funny and the kids are

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Speaker 3: into it, so I just made me think it. You know,

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Speaker 3: I don't give up any I just put a bucket out,

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Speaker 3: and we.

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Speaker 1: Will put out the bucket and you know, hopefully people

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Speaker 1: are kind and they don't take all the candy at once.

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Speaker 1: That's what we hope for. This is our Thursday, week

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Speaker 1: nine episode. We're going to arrow down the options on

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Speaker 1: our quest to find five picks that we both agree on.

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Speaker 1: I don't know, I feel like we're far apart on

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Speaker 1: a bunch of games, so it's going to be tricky

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Speaker 1: to find those five. In case you missed it, Matt Mitchell,

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Speaker 1: As I mentioned, our long time producer has returned feedback

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Speaker 1: as a gift. You have any comments about the show,

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Speaker 1: to send them all to Matt Mitchell. Another reminder, subscribe

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Speaker 1: to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's get into this thing. Every week we give out

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Speaker 1: our picks on Tuesday, and every week your professional betting colleagues,

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Speaker 1: Simon have strong opinions about what we discuss on the show,

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Speaker 1: and they like to share them with you, and then

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Speaker 1: we share them with everybody else here on Thursdays in

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Speaker 1: our favorite segment, it's time for shark calls.

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Speaker 2: I have to answer this phone, all right, Rain, Rain

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Speaker 2: telephone range. Somebody said, maybe want to do man Chad?

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Speaker 2: Is it's strange days? Just this year?

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Speaker 1: Is it strange days? Because the wise agree with me

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Speaker 1: on just about every single game.

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Speaker 2: No, you're gonna get slaughtered this week, but you might not.

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Speaker 3: That's the strange days because the public, they've been hit,

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Speaker 3: they've been cashing on these weeks.

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Speaker 2: You've been going back to last year. They have weeks like.

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Speaker 3: This where they are it feels like they're stepping in

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Speaker 3: it and they get away with it.

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Speaker 2: And maybe it's the new age.

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Speaker 3: But the favorites, like you've seen all the data chat,

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Speaker 3: it's like the best run they've ever had the start

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Speaker 3: of season right now.

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Speaker 2: And these last two weeks it's been insane. What was

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Speaker 2: eleven and two? Like you said last week.

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Speaker 3: Normally I would be hammering this, dancing on your grave,

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Speaker 3: laughing at you because you were so joe public. But

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Speaker 3: you might be right, and I think a lot of

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Speaker 3: the guys back up some of that. If you want

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Speaker 3: to go through the plays that I disagree with them on.

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Speaker 3: A lot of pros like Atlanta, I think that's a

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Speaker 3: sharp side. A lot of pros like Pittsburgh probably a

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Speaker 3: sharp side again, I'm just on the opposite side of it.

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Speaker 2: Plenty of pros like the Vikings. I don't get it.

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Speaker 3: Feels like they're kind of just been a number into

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Speaker 3: just a bag.

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Speaker 2: I just don't trust JJ. I don't get that one either.

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Speaker 3: Tons of pros I talked through, like Tennessee, on the

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Speaker 3: other side of that one, the ones they agree with

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Speaker 3: me on. Shockingly, a lot of pros love the Chiefs.

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Speaker 3: I really thought that was gonna be pros on the

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Speaker 3: Bills and the public would be on the Chiefs. But

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Speaker 3: plenty of guys I know back in the Chiefs series,

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Speaker 3: it's there are Bills, betters, a lot of pros on

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Speaker 3: the Bills. But it's not all I thought it was

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Speaker 3: gonna be. You know, Chos Orthus pros and it's split

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Speaker 3: on that game. I mean a game I love. Chad

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Speaker 3: just never not gonna get there. I guess I don't

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Speaker 3: love it. I don't want to say I love it

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Speaker 3: because it's Geno Smith. But the Raiders like that's tons

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Speaker 3: of pros. I know hammered that at plus three.

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Speaker 2: And a half.

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Speaker 3: I'm mad I didn't do anything with it because I

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Speaker 3: just was like, can I just avoid this game.

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Speaker 2: I don't want to have.

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Speaker 3: Money on Geno Smith or Trevor Lawrence. It's down to

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Speaker 3: minus two and a half now, I'm like, I might

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Speaker 3: have to bet Trevor Lawrence. I don't want to, though,

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Speaker 3: because I just that game stinks to high heavens. Tons

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Speaker 3: of pros on Houston with us. You know, I don't

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Speaker 3: know how much you liked that game, but another game

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Speaker 3: I thought was going to be very very public, heavy

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Speaker 3: on the Broncos. It's actually not like that, right, It's

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Speaker 3: been pretty split. Most bookmakers I've talked to they don't

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Speaker 3: desperately need Houston there. I thought that was going to

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Speaker 3: be a big professional spot. But you know, this week,

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Speaker 3: it just seems like the pros, I know, they're taking

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Speaker 3: these home dogs like the Giants, and I try to

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Speaker 3: ask them why, and they're just playing the number like

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Speaker 3: they really logical reasons on it other than this is

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Speaker 3: what they do long term and it's a winner. And

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Speaker 3: I told you, I'm just scared about it because this

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Speaker 3: has not been hitting like it used to these last

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Speaker 3: couple of years, and we've talked about it, the discrepancy

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Speaker 3: between having a quarterback you can trust on fourth down

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Speaker 3: on these short fields with these kickoff rules, it's different,

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Speaker 3: and these favorites were just hitting differently.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, we can dive into it, but really really.

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Speaker 3: Split up this week overall over the lot of the games,

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Speaker 3: but the most part most pros I knew too, they're

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Speaker 3: just all over these home dogs and they just love

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Speaker 3: the numbers they're getting on these home dogs.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's a mistake. Let's get into it.

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Speaker 1: Atlanta at New England, you mentioned it like the two

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Speaker 1: players we were most concerned about not being available were

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Speaker 1: Michael Pennix and Drake London, and I think that's part

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Speaker 1: of why this number shot up. Don't forget on Sunday

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Speaker 1: this line was three and a half, shot up to

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Speaker 1: five and a half, actually got up to six at

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Speaker 1: some point on Wednesday. But there is news out of Atlanta.

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Speaker 1: Raheem Morris did say he was feeling really good about

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Speaker 1: Michael Pennix. It looks like Drake London also is on

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Speaker 1: the road to playing and if those two guys are

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Speaker 1: playing then it's a different conversation, and all of a sudden,

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Speaker 1: we're talking about a new England team that is to

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Speaker 1: me highly overvalued because Drake May is just dropping bombs

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Speaker 1: and now all of a sudden, everyone thinks he's sort

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Speaker 1: of the second coming of Tom Brady and is racing

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Speaker 1: up the charts in the MVP race. But Atlanta offensively

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Speaker 1: is very well rounded when it has all of its

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Speaker 1: players available that the Patriots have had a hard time stopping.

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Speaker 1: The run by Jean Robinson can be a dominant presence.

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Speaker 1: You kind of need to take last week off the

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Speaker 1: board as such a massive anomaly burned the tape Atlanta

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Speaker 1: at five and a half. I totally get why the

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Speaker 1: wise guys like that play. Explain to me your logic

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Speaker 1: here if if, by the way, the expectation holds true

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Speaker 1: and Penis and London are playing, Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I think everything you said is true that we've been

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Speaker 3: saying it for weeks.

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Speaker 2: Though this Patriots team's overvalued Drake May.

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Speaker 3: It's I think one o their quarterback is done when

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Speaker 3: he's done in history.

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Speaker 2: I think it was Drew Brees or something like that.

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Speaker 3: That's basically completing seventy five percent of their past is

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Speaker 3: through eight weeks and have over two thousand yards. And

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Speaker 3: you know the difference between obviously him and Drew Brees

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Speaker 3: is Drake Made is a great athlete. He's got incredible

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Speaker 3: legs that when it's not working for him throwing the ball,

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Speaker 3: he uses that gets first downs. And he's been a

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Speaker 3: unicorn in that way for this Patriots team, right like

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Speaker 3: he keeps them in drives that they really shouldn't be

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Speaker 3: in because he uses his legs. And then all the

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Speaker 3: fifty fifty bucks I just said, he's complete seventy five

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Speaker 3: percent of his passes. These aren't checkdowns like Drew Brees

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Speaker 3: was in that twenty eighteen. This is guy's throwing thirty

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Speaker 3: forty yards downfield and it's working. It's all hitting. So

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Speaker 3: everything you're chaining about the regression is so true. I

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Speaker 3: just don't know if.

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Speaker 2: This is the spot to get in front of it

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Speaker 2: because it is Penix and it is outdoor.

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Speaker 3: Like again, he's played two outdoor games this year. Penis

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Speaker 3: as a starter with guys healthy Carolina zero to thirty.

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Speaker 3: They didn't score a single point against Carolina, Okay, not

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Speaker 3: a big deal.

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Speaker 2: Then they went to San.

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Speaker 3: Franc I know, but I'm saying like it's a fluke game, right,

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Speaker 3: Those things happen like you can't take much away from them.

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Speaker 2: That's why I try to not hold too much against him.

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Speaker 3: In that game, he went to San Francisco, looked anemic,

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Speaker 3: scored ten points against a defense with no Nick Bosta,

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Speaker 3: no pass rush, and no Fred Warner in their first game.

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Speaker 3: Like made the four Nits defense look like a juggernaut

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Speaker 3: without two all pros. So, you know, ten points on

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Speaker 3: the road there. I just I'm worried about Pennix. I

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Speaker 3: just don't trust them yet. Rather, i'd be at home

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Speaker 3: indoors as a favorite. I like him on the road

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Speaker 3: as a dog. I don't know if I can get there.

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Speaker 3: But everything Shat's saying is so true. This is an

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Speaker 3: incredible spot for the Falcons trend wise, Like there's a

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Speaker 3: ton of trends Patriots are based on this insane five

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Speaker 3: game ats streak. You want to fade those type of teams,

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Speaker 3: especially young teams that didn't make the playoffs the previous year.

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Speaker 3: They tend to struggle in this exact spot. So I

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Speaker 3: get why you're doing it. I just I haven't bet

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Speaker 3: the Falcons. I just I'm scared off of it. I'm

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Speaker 3: probably just gonnad up with the Patriots on the money

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Speaker 3: line on Robin, even though you're so right, like it's

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Speaker 3: it's a spot they should lose. But I think between

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Speaker 3: the vrabel playing this young quarterback on the road, the

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Speaker 3: way Drick May has been playing, I don't know.

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Speaker 2: I just can't. I can't.

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Speaker 3: I can't get there on this Falcus, even though you're

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Speaker 3: right it's an inflated number.

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Speaker 1: Well, look, this is always a challenge, and I think

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Speaker 1: we have a similar challenge with the Colts and the Steelers.

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Speaker 1: When are you fading the team that is riding so high?

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Speaker 1: When do you get off that roller coaster because you

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Speaker 1: know it's going to start to go down again. It

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Speaker 1: doesn't just keep going up. Trying to time that is

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Speaker 1: the hardest part of some of this. So we're putting

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Speaker 1: a pin in Atlanta, New England. Let's we'll end up

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Speaker 1: talking about it on Sunday because we might have a

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Speaker 1: hard time finding five. And this is going to be

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Speaker 1: one where I think we're going.

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Speaker 2: To get I have five. I love I just you don't.

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Speaker 2: You just don't like them.

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Speaker 1: Honestly, That's that's the point of the game. My friend.

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Speaker 1: We got to find five that we both love. Chargers

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Speaker 1: minus eight and a half at Tennessee. Uh, interesting game.

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Speaker 1: We talked about loving the Chargers on Tuesday. That's when

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Speaker 1: it was it nine and a half. Now it's moved

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Speaker 1: even more. You mentioned off the top sharp calls, the

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Speaker 1: wise guys loving Tennessee. I don't know what anyone's seeing

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Speaker 1: with Tennessee. Jeffrey Simmons did not practice on Wednesday. This

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Speaker 1: team has a very hard time looking like a professional

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Speaker 1: football team. I bet the Chargers at eight and a half.

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Speaker 1: I'm having a hard time figuring out what the value

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Speaker 1: is on the Titans other than they're at eight and

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Speaker 1: a half home home point eight and a half point

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Speaker 1: home dog because the Chargers. They should crush in this

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Speaker 1: game if they play like the Chargers can play.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and a lot of it.

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Speaker 3: I think it's just what we talk about every week,

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Speaker 3: Like certain pros and certain groups. They're just playing the

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Speaker 3: lulls of averages like cheps. When we heard these team

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Speaker 3: can't keep winning forever. Titans can't keep losing forever, can they?

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Speaker 3: I think they can, Like you just talked about it,

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Speaker 3: You're missing key guys here.

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Speaker 2: I can't state that enough.

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Speaker 3: And you know it's a unique spot too with this

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Speaker 3: Chargers team coming off kind of a mini buy, right,

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Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, it's bizarre world justin Herbert, who couldn't

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Speaker 3: stand being in front of the camera is now it

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Speaker 3: feels like every sporting event with his super hot girlfriend

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Speaker 3: and it's like I love it, Like, finally.

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Speaker 2: Herbert's being a QB one.

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Speaker 3: What's been lacking with this guy forever is just that

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Speaker 3: embracing it, like and the moxy of it. Now I

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Speaker 3: think too the season he's having. You know, people are

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Speaker 3: loving Herbert right, He's in the top what five We

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Speaker 3: talked about the MVP betting right now, He's just way

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Speaker 3: up there. And it's the stats, right the two thousand yards,

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Speaker 3: he's like got a ton of passing yards. And when

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Speaker 3: I really dove into this one, I kind of really

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Speaker 3: thought to myself, what are I, me and Chad back

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Speaker 3: in here with Horrorball on the road, Like, are there

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Speaker 3: numbers going to back up us taking him as a

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Speaker 3: big favorite here? Because I want to see why the

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Speaker 3: pros are fading horrible here, because to me, this is

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Speaker 3: like an auto play Horrball big favorite against the team

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Speaker 3: that can't stop the run, love their best run defender.

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Speaker 2: What is there to fear? And even the numbers back

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Speaker 2: it up.

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Speaker 3: Chad Harball, he's closed the favorite eleven times with the Chargers.

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Speaker 3: He's seven and four against the spread in those games.

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Speaker 3: If we're going just him as a road favorite, horriball.

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Speaker 3: Since he's been with the Chargers, they're ten and two

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Speaker 3: against the spread as a road favorite against the spread.

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Speaker 3: That's crazy. I can't get over that. Now, let's factor

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Speaker 3: in extended rest. That's a big deal for the Chargers team.

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Speaker 2: They are a perfect five and oh five and oh

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Speaker 2: against the spread and the spot with Horrball going from

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Speaker 2: West coast to the East coast.

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Speaker 3: Now we're adding in Tennessee is the worst team historically covering.

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Speaker 3: I just it's under ten. I can't avoid it. And

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Speaker 3: chatter on two huge chalk favorites, one in the Lines

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Speaker 3: one of the Chargers. I shockingly love them both.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not. This is where you know the the

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Speaker 1: changes in the NFL the past few years have really

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Speaker 1: Retavock with how people look at these games and think

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Speaker 1: about underdogs at home and big numbers and if you're

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Speaker 1: not adjusting, look, we could get a bit on this

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Speaker 1: game right, very possible. We're gonna come out looking like

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Speaker 1: fools in this game. But you have to be throwing

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Speaker 1: out a lot of the old theories because of the

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Speaker 1: way people are going forward and fourth downs, because of

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Speaker 1: the length at which they can kick a field goal,

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Speaker 1: because of how bad some team's been playing, and the

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Speaker 1: discrepancy and quarterback play has had a material difference on

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Speaker 1: how these teams are covering the spreads the past couple

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Speaker 1: of years, and so it's just getting harder and harder

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Speaker 1: to cover a big number for some of these teams.

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Speaker 1: Also because because teams are going for it more, they're

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Speaker 1: scoring more touchdowns, and that also makes it harder to

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Speaker 1: cover a big number because you're coming back from further down.

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Speaker 3: So and just some teams are like, I'm trying to

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Speaker 3: beat in people's heads here. Some coaches they get their

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Speaker 3: guys up for these type of road games, like coming

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Speaker 3: from West to East used to be an old cool

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Speaker 3: fade spot for professional betters, and with the cryotherapy, the

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Speaker 3: airplanes and so it's whatever it is, it's just not

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Speaker 3: that way anymore. And even diving into horriball not including

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Speaker 3: him with just the charges him in the NFL, his

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Speaker 3: entire career, come from east to west. He's fifteen to

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Speaker 3: four as a favorite on the road against the spread

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Speaker 3: and the spot. He's been doing it for years with

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Speaker 3: different quarterbacks, different teams. He just seems like a guy that,

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Speaker 3: like we talk about time, coaching matters, getting the guys up,

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Speaker 3: getting their guys ready for an early start. It doesn't

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Speaker 3: affect his team. So yeah, I'm shocked so much professional

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Speaker 3: money is coming in and moving this number down to

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Speaker 3: eight and a half.

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Speaker 2: But like you said, we'll take that value.

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Speaker 1: Well, you just mentioned the other game Minnesota at Detroit.

336
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Speaker 1: Detroit is a nine point favorite, hard rock eight and

337
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Speaker 1: a half at a lot of other places. I love it.

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Speaker 1: This was Chad's Troyce.

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Speaker 2: Tice.

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Speaker 1: Why are people getting excited about JJ McCarthy. Why are

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Speaker 1: they trying to find the good in the two games

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Speaker 1: that he played, which weren't very good and getting excited

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Speaker 1: about the number of eight and a half or nine

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Speaker 1: for the Vikings. The Lions are a dominant team. They

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Speaker 1: do not have close games. If they have close games,

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Speaker 1: it's games that they lose. When they win, they win

347
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Speaker 1: so freaking big and this is a classic spot for

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Speaker 1: them to win so big, and I pointed this out

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Speaker 1: on Tuesday. It's not about the Brian Flores pass rush

350
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Speaker 1: and pass defense. This Vikings rush defense just hasn't been

351
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Speaker 1: good all year, bottom ten across the board in multiple

352
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Speaker 1: advanced analytics stats like this is not a rush defense

353
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Speaker 1: that is going to hold up against a dominant rush offense,

354
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Speaker 1: which is really what the Lions like to be, and

355
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Speaker 1: we've seen that over multiple weeks. So I'm getting the

356
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Speaker 1: Lions Jared Goff Dan Campbell in a great rush offense

357
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Speaker 1: against a bad rush defense at home with a quarterback

358
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Speaker 1: who hasn't played in six weeks, who they may or

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Speaker 1: may not have been keeping on the bench because they're

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Speaker 1: kind of worried about how good he might be. What's

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Speaker 1: the debate here? I don't want to hear. Oh, well,

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Speaker 1: it's the number guy, look at the teams, That's what

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Speaker 1: I have to say.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, honestly though, it's I think a lot of these

365
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Speaker 3: pros love JJ.

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Speaker 2: They got me to flip in the summer. It must

367
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Speaker 2: have been the summer heat.

368
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Speaker 3: But like I had zero view on Jjay, didn't really

369
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Speaker 3: have any kind of read on them, and all some

370
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Speaker 3: of these guys hyped them up, said he's gonna be

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Speaker 3: the next second coming of Sam Darnold, and he been

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Speaker 3: anything but right. And this team this year, this fighting team,

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Speaker 3: is what I thought they were gonna be. Last year

374
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Speaker 3: with San Donald though, it was gonna a ton of dysfunction,

375
00:19:07,560 --> 00:19:10,520
Speaker 3: a nameless defense that just can't get after the quarterback.

376
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Speaker 3: But last year everything went their way, right, they got

377
00:19:12,560 --> 00:19:15,000
Speaker 3: all these crazy turnover bounces, and this year it's not

378
00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:18,440
Speaker 3: hitting the same. And you know a couple of trends

379
00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:21,080
Speaker 3: that maybe pros are betting here with this Vikings team.

380
00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:24,280
Speaker 3: The only one I could think of was, well, it's

381
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Speaker 3: a Lions team, huge win against the Bucks and then

382
00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:32,720
Speaker 3: a bye week, right, Usually a team with a big

383
00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:36,040
Speaker 3: win like that and don't extended home reunt homestead, so

384
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Speaker 3: you know ten to fifteen plus days in this exact spot.

385
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Speaker 3: This is again a lot of data. They's seventy nine

386
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Speaker 3: one hundred and four, so forty four percent against the

387
00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:48,159
Speaker 3: spread in the spot. So you could say, well, this

388
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Speaker 3: isn't a great spot for the Lions. Sam counter I

389
00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:54,040
Speaker 3: have with that Chargers one. It's about the coaching, Like there,

390
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Speaker 3: I can't see Campbell letting the guys have a letdown here.

391
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Speaker 3: And okay, let's dive in the numbers with Campbell what

392
00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:03,040
Speaker 3: he's been like with extended rest. With this Lions team,

393
00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:06,399
Speaker 3: they're fifteen to four against the spread, covering by him

394
00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:09,159
Speaker 3: with seven points per game in this exact spot. So

395
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Speaker 3: I love it like I love the fact that Campbell

396
00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:14,560
Speaker 3: gets his guys ready for these type of games, even

397
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Speaker 3: when they're big favorites in this spot because because you know,

398
00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:19,680
Speaker 3: it's been what you had three years now, the Lions

399
00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:21,400
Speaker 3: haven't be getting respect from the books and they're still

400
00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:23,919
Speaker 3: covering in this enter percent clip. They've been big favorites

401
00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:26,160
Speaker 3: in a lot of these spots and we've had to

402
00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:27,639
Speaker 3: just bite the bullet and take it because we know

403
00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:30,199
Speaker 3: it's a little bit of an inflated line. But you know,

404
00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:32,399
Speaker 3: to me, it's under another It's just like the Chargers

405
00:20:32,480 --> 00:20:35,840
Speaker 3: under that key number of ten and eleven. I'm gonna

406
00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:38,480
Speaker 3: take it here like the new NFL. I don't think

407
00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:40,679
Speaker 3: the bookmakers some of these offenses, they've caught up to it.

408
00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:43,359
Speaker 3: And could me and Chack get burned in the first

409
00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:46,280
Speaker 3: half and the Lions go over three on fourth downs

410
00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:49,800
Speaker 3: and we're down ten to seven, Sure, but we still

411
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Speaker 3: have the belief that we can get twenty eight points

412
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:54,639
Speaker 3: to the second half of this Lions team against ak

413
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Speaker 3: You seem, like you said, just can't stop the run.

414
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Speaker 3: So love this patch up. The Lions have them waivered.

415
00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:02,080
Speaker 3: Hearing a lot of noise from a lot of pros

416
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Speaker 3: on s Vikings team.

417
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Speaker 2: But I think we're in agreement. Think they're betting a

418
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Speaker 2: number here, but this is the wrong game they'd be

419
00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:08,440
Speaker 2: playing that type of game.

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Speaker 1: Yep, agree, totally agree. We love the Lions here. All right, Well,

421
00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:15,440
Speaker 1: we got two games that we both agree on Carolina,

422
00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:19,240
Speaker 1: two big favorites, two big favorites. Jesus, what is happen

423
00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:22,600
Speaker 1: It's going this year? What has happened to us? Carolina

424
00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:27,560
Speaker 1: is a thirteen and a half point underdog on the

425
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Speaker 1: road at the Green Bay Packers, and our question on

426
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:33,840
Speaker 1: Tuesday was would Bryce Young be starting?

427
00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 2: He is?

428
00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:39,920
Speaker 1: I had to dig deep on this one. Here's something

429
00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:44,639
Speaker 1: that was interesting to me. Carolina allows the fifth fewest

430
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Speaker 1: plays per game, which equals a top ten success rate

431
00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:54,880
Speaker 1: on early downs, meaning the teams they play don't get

432
00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:59,399
Speaker 1: big games early in a series. The Packers rake twenty

433
00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:03,399
Speaker 1: third in play per game. They're very explosive, so we

434
00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:04,840
Speaker 1: know they're going to be able to score points, but

435
00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:09,399
Speaker 1: they do it while not getting a lot of long drives.

436
00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:11,600
Speaker 1: They don't have a lot of plays over the course

437
00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:15,200
Speaker 1: of a game. So you could argue with Bryce Young

438
00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:20,679
Speaker 1: and a run defense that until this past week against

439
00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:24,560
Speaker 1: the Bills had been trending upward, and the fact that

440
00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:29,080
Speaker 1: they are very good in early down success rate, they

441
00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:35,840
Speaker 1: might be able to limit the Packers scoring opportunities, which

442
00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:39,439
Speaker 1: makes it harder to cover a two touchdown spread. Am

443
00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:43,359
Speaker 1: I stretching? Am I reaching? Am I just trying to

444
00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:46,720
Speaker 1: find a way to feel comfortable betting on the Panthers,

445
00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:49,320
Speaker 1: which I haven't done, by the way. I'm just sort

446
00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:53,399
Speaker 1: of laying out a theory on a really big number

447
00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:56,639
Speaker 1: for a team that had been trending upward, and I

448
00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:59,800
Speaker 1: think that the Packers might be overvalued because of what's

449
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:01,399
Speaker 1: happened the past couple of weeks.

450
00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:04,199
Speaker 2: You're h laers, I teel you bet this.

451
00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:06,760
Speaker 3: I bet the Panthers, but it's not one of my

452
00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:10,000
Speaker 3: bigger bets. I'm simply, I mean, sounds stupid. We are

453
00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:12,680
Speaker 3: simply playing the number here the Packers, owen.

454
00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:13,000
Speaker 2: I mean.

455
00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:15,800
Speaker 3: Jordan loves specifically oh and four against the spread as

456
00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:18,600
Speaker 3: a favorite of seven points or more, and we've seen

457
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:20,800
Speaker 3: it this season especially. They just play the level of

458
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:24,840
Speaker 3: the competition, right, Like if you get them against a

459
00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:27,560
Speaker 3: good team and all eyes are on them and they're

460
00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:30,800
Speaker 3: in a big spot, it seems like their offense roles

461
00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:32,639
Speaker 3: they put up a ton of points. They keep the

462
00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:35,640
Speaker 3: foot on the gas. See this year, when the're playing

463
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:38,160
Speaker 3: against bad teams, they just don't press. They're not trying

464
00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:39,320
Speaker 3: to blow teams out and roll.

465
00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:41,200
Speaker 2: So it's a huge number.

466
00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:43,199
Speaker 3: I'll join you on it, especially the fact that you

467
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:47,760
Speaker 3: know the Panthers just got blown out, embarrassed their own right,

468
00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:49,800
Speaker 3: this is tends to be a nice spot where team

469
00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:52,520
Speaker 3: wants to bounce back. And historically teams in the spot

470
00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:55,400
Speaker 3: are sixty one percent against the spread losing by thirty

471
00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:57,399
Speaker 3: points or more at home now on the road. So

472
00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:01,760
Speaker 3: trends like it. But yeah, they're they're just other games

473
00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 3: I've bet into. But I exactly, I know exactly where

474
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:06,560
Speaker 3: you're coming from. We have to play this one. But

475
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:09,640
Speaker 3: it's just tough for me to better confidently just because

476
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:15,919
Speaker 3: this Panthers team can get rolled here, run defense, if

477
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:18,760
Speaker 3: the things, if the Green Bay gets things rolling offensively

478
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:20,440
Speaker 3: like we saw with them against Pittsburgh.

479
00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:21,600
Speaker 2: Horrible matchup.

480
00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:23,240
Speaker 3: Then in fact, in the fact that it seems like

481
00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:26,440
Speaker 3: Parson has kind of figured out that defense got more comfortable.

482
00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:29,960
Speaker 3: Not a great matchup for Panthers either, that both their

483
00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:33,119
Speaker 3: tackles cannot stop Parsons if he wants to get to Bryce.

484
00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:36,040
Speaker 3: So it were really are playing the number here and

485
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:38,560
Speaker 3: trusting that the Packers just don't roll bad teams.

486
00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 1: Well, we don't have to put it in, but it is.

487
00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:44,119
Speaker 1: It is gonna be a game where all of a sudden,

488
00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:48,159
Speaker 1: it's not brass balls. It might percolate as well.

489
00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:50,040
Speaker 3: I'm saying Sunday morning, if you're like, this is one

490
00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:52,119
Speaker 3: of my two or three I need in, I'm not

491
00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:53,639
Speaker 3: gonna fight you on because I'm gonna bet it, but

492
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:54,960
Speaker 3: I'm like, I hope Chack can.

493
00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:55,440
Speaker 2: Avoid this one.

494
00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:58,239
Speaker 1: Please. It's definitely not. It's it's definitely not like I

495
00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:01,600
Speaker 1: already know the game where I'm most heavily invested, and

496
00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:03,680
Speaker 1: this is not going to be one of those games.

497
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:06,480
Speaker 1: I can guarantee you Indianapolis.

498
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 2: We both are so wish you washing about it. We

499
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:09,200
Speaker 2: know it's the right play.

500
00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:10,800
Speaker 1: We know it's one hundred percent the right player. I'm

501
00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:12,200
Speaker 1: going to watch it on Sunday. We're gonna be like,

502
00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:14,040
Speaker 1: are you freaking kidding me that we'd not play this game.

503
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:17,760
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536
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:54,400
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537
00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:58,280
Speaker 1: is a three point underdog at home. You like the Cults,

538
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 1: I like the Steelers. So we're at a stand still here.

539
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:06,399
Speaker 1: The wise guys have come in on the Steelers as

540
00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:10,560
Speaker 1: well from sharp calls. I think there's some schematic issues.

541
00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:14,919
Speaker 1: I think there's on both sides. By the way, I

542
00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:17,800
Speaker 1: think the Steelers defense has been terrible. I think they

543
00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:22,040
Speaker 1: are primed to be completely cut up by Daniel Jones

544
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:24,359
Speaker 1: in the spot because they play a lot of single

545
00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:26,600
Speaker 1: high safety, and that's a great way for Daniel Jones

546
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:29,280
Speaker 1: to find open receivers, which he's been doing. He's been

547
00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:33,160
Speaker 1: excellent against single high safety this year. But the Colts

548
00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:36,919
Speaker 1: also have injuries at both cornerback positions. They are not

549
00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:39,879
Speaker 1: very good covering tight ends, and Steelers are running tight

550
00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:42,200
Speaker 1: end sets, you know, double tight end sets fifty percent

551
00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:46,920
Speaker 1: of the time. So last week we like Tomlin because

552
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:48,920
Speaker 1: he was a three and a half point dog at

553
00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:51,879
Speaker 1: home coming off a bad loss in which his defense

554
00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:54,680
Speaker 1: did not play well.

555
00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:57,960
Speaker 2: I love the false enthusiasm. I'm gonna see if we

556
00:27:58,000 --> 00:27:59,480
Speaker 2: can make what do you guys quit today?

557
00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:05,520
Speaker 1: Historically that still holds up right. He's still the greatest

558
00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:08,240
Speaker 1: coach in NFL history covering as a dog of three

559
00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:08,919
Speaker 1: plus points.

560
00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:11,160
Speaker 2: Look the greatest of all time. Look at your work.

561
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:14,880
Speaker 3: Let's go mat Like we talked about the pros, they're

562
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:16,480
Speaker 3: all over Pittsburgh, especially at.

563
00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:17,320
Speaker 2: The plus three and a half.

564
00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:20,240
Speaker 3: That's any guy I talked to, it's not Pittsburgh plus three,

565
00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:22,000
Speaker 3: it's the three and a half hopping on that.

566
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:26,040
Speaker 2: It's a key number. Like you said, anybody can look.

567
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:29,320
Speaker 3: All the trends love Tomlin and this execs spot like

568
00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 3: a blowout loss at home the week before. Now he's

569
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:35,879
Speaker 3: a home dog again against the team well above five hundred.

570
00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:37,360
Speaker 2: This is usually a smash spot.

571
00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:40,200
Speaker 3: I agree with you, but a lot of those Tomlin

572
00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:44,320
Speaker 3: stats are old, and I'm trying to adjust to that

573
00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:47,640
Speaker 3: because it's just it's a new age met and we've

574
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:49,800
Speaker 3: been betting that way. We have a winning record this year,

575
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:52,240
Speaker 3: even though it's a chalky year in history, because we've

576
00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:55,000
Speaker 3: leaned into it where it's like certain games, certain matchups.

577
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:58,080
Speaker 3: I know exactly what you're saying and talking about, Like

578
00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:02,160
Speaker 3: Daniel Jones, he's been due for a letdown game. Can

579
00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:06,040
Speaker 3: you know Jonathan Taylor get muddy down in a sloppy

580
00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:10,000
Speaker 3: field outdoors? Like is there a path for this Pittsburgh

581
00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:11,560
Speaker 3: team to win and pull off this upset?

582
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:13,680
Speaker 2: Of course, like this Colts team. That's what's so.

583
00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:15,880
Speaker 3: Funny everyone putting them number one in their power ratings.

584
00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:19,760
Speaker 3: It's like the stupidest exercise in all of the NFL.

585
00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 1: Well yeah, I mean, I mean we get to the

586
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 1: next game. I had a thought, by the way, but

587
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:24,640
Speaker 1: it's just like.

588
00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:25,360
Speaker 2: What are we doing here?

589
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:30,000
Speaker 3: And like what world would the Colts be favored over

590
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:33,480
Speaker 3: the Chiefs at a neutral field, let alone even this

591
00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:35,280
Speaker 3: Ravens team. We have all these questions about if it's

592
00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:38,160
Speaker 3: the playoffs and Lamar's going, It's just none of it

593
00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:39,840
Speaker 3: made sense. Like this cold team has a ton of

594
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:44,280
Speaker 3: holes like you're saying. And another team where they're on

595
00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:47,360
Speaker 3: an amazing ats streak like we always say, they tend

596
00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:49,560
Speaker 3: to have let down games. No one like we're talking

597
00:29:49,600 --> 00:29:53,000
Speaker 3: about no one goes fifteen and three against the spread

598
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:55,360
Speaker 3: or fourteen and two like to start the year against

599
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:59,200
Speaker 3: what It just doesn't happen. So maybe I won't force

600
00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 3: us to take the Colts. I'm just I'm dugging on

601
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:04,280
Speaker 3: this team where I love the way they're playing, the

602
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:08,600
Speaker 3: way the offense schemes, Like all these teams are giving

603
00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:11,880
Speaker 3: problems to this Pittsburgh team. They've not faced an offense

604
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:14,200
Speaker 3: like this Colts team. This is the best offense by

605
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:17,200
Speaker 3: far they face. I mean Green Bay as good as

606
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:19,320
Speaker 3: they made them look, that's not like a Juggernan offense.

607
00:30:19,360 --> 00:30:21,959
Speaker 3: They had not been rolling, they had been inconsistent these

608
00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:24,440
Speaker 3: last couple weeks. They got right in that second half

609
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:26,240
Speaker 3: against his bad Pittsburgh defense.

610
00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:29,800
Speaker 2: So I just I'm trying to get there.

611
00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 3: I really am with you, Check, because I think you're

612
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:33,520
Speaker 3: in the right here being on the Pittsburgh side.

613
00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 2: I just I can't do it.

614
00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:38,680
Speaker 3: I'm very public here with the because again, no pros

615
00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:40,920
Speaker 3: are on this Colts team, all the pros around Pittsburgh,

616
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 3: especially the three and a half so very very trucky

617
00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:45,560
Speaker 3: played by me. But I just I trust the scheme

618
00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:50,280
Speaker 3: for this Colts team, and I don't trust Rogers being consistent. Still, Rodgers,

619
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:52,640
Speaker 3: he can put together a good quarter or two for you,

620
00:30:52,720 --> 00:30:55,320
Speaker 3: but he hasn't put a complete four quarter game in

621
00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:56,479
Speaker 3: my opinion, yet this season.

622
00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:59,480
Speaker 2: So yeah, I like where you're at.

623
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:02,200
Speaker 3: While you're at there, maybe you can avoid this one

624
00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:04,840
Speaker 3: for the contest. But yeah, we're split. I'm on Colt's

625
00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:07,080
Speaker 3: minus three. You're probably gonna be on Pittsburgh plus three

626
00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 3: and a half.

627
00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:10,920
Speaker 1: Yep, I think that's a completely accurate assessment.

628
00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:14,440
Speaker 2: It's a fine line between, you know, drinking wine and

629
00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:15,440
Speaker 2: squashing greats.

630
00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:19,160
Speaker 1: A game that we both like, Denver at Houston. Houston

631
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 1: is a one and a half point favorite right now, Simon,

632
00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:30,240
Speaker 1: this is going to be our brass Balls bet of

633
00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:33,880
Speaker 1: the week, presented by hard Rock Bet.

634
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 2: You know what it takes, It takes brass balls.

635
00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:42,360
Speaker 1: It's been sitting at minus one and a half all week.

636
00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 1: It's starting to trend towards to remember, everybody, Sunday night,

637
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:52,880
Speaker 1: we're doing early leans for week nine. We identified the

638
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:54,600
Speaker 1: Texans at plus one and a half as a game

639
00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:56,680
Speaker 1: we were going to be playing. I know we both

640
00:31:56,680 --> 00:31:59,160
Speaker 1: bet it at plus one and a half. We even

641
00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 1: said on Tuesday still liked it at Texans minus one

642
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:05,440
Speaker 1: and a half. Christian Kirk receiver for the Texans likely

643
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:10,800
Speaker 1: back Nicocollins is potentially back. That are waiting on news

644
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:13,520
Speaker 1: that he could clear the concussion protocol, but he was

645
00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:17,280
Speaker 1: limited in practice on Wednesday, so they are hopeful, and

646
00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:21,480
Speaker 1: against a team that's missing pass certained, so that could

647
00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:24,160
Speaker 1: be an even bigger advantage as to why we like

648
00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:28,360
Speaker 1: the Texans than them getting back any players because the

649
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:32,200
Speaker 1: Bronco's pressure depends on being able to bring extra players,

650
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:36,760
Speaker 1: at least extra player because Pascertain can handle half of

651
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:40,360
Speaker 1: the field by himself. If he's not playing, that changes

652
00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:45,520
Speaker 1: everything defensively for the Broncos. Sean Payton even admitted like

653
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 1: that is just a massive change for us that we're

654
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 1: going to have to manage. You can't just do the

655
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:53,400
Speaker 1: same scheme that they were doing. He said that in

656
00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:56,760
Speaker 1: pres compas earlier this week. So we're still on Houston

657
00:32:56,760 --> 00:32:57,920
Speaker 1: minus one and a half.

658
00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:01,480
Speaker 2: And as good as Denver has been, I think we're

659
00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 2: both in agreement.

660
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:04,560
Speaker 3: We've had major questions this year about bow Knicks and

661
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:08,200
Speaker 3: him being the quarterback in this league. For after a

662
00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:10,160
Speaker 3: year of teams having tape on him, you've seen teams

663
00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:13,400
Speaker 3: have made adjustments, and you know, even I want to

664
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 3: give him credit because the hardest thing to do is

665
00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:18,640
Speaker 3: go off script right after the script is done in

666
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:21,360
Speaker 3: the second half, teams kind of know what you're gonna

667
00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:22,280
Speaker 3: do and they've adjusted to you.

668
00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:23,800
Speaker 2: He's actually performed really well bo.

669
00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:26,000
Speaker 3: Next this year, Like he's really like that second half

670
00:33:26,040 --> 00:33:29,240
Speaker 3: against the Eagles really impressive. Obviously second half or just

671
00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:31,800
Speaker 3: I should say, fourth quarter against the Giants. Something we'd

672
00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:34,280
Speaker 3: never seen before. Two passing touchdown, two rushing touchdowns. But

673
00:33:35,920 --> 00:33:37,520
Speaker 3: I I've talked about it a little bit coming of

674
00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:40,440
Speaker 3: the year. I really like betting bow as a favorite

675
00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 3: like we did last week, and I really like to

676
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:46,640
Speaker 3: fade him as a dog like he just whatever it's

677
00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:49,520
Speaker 3: been in his career. Whenever the line's under three or less,

678
00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:52,360
Speaker 3: he's five and six straight up. But as a dog,

679
00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:56,320
Speaker 3: he's four and seven against the spread. So you know,

680
00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:58,520
Speaker 3: last year what was he eight to oh, nine to

681
00:33:58,600 --> 00:34:01,040
Speaker 3: zero as a favorite? Was you only could really get

682
00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:02,440
Speaker 3: him when he was a dog. And if you go

683
00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:05,240
Speaker 3: back and look, it's because when he's playing really good teams,

684
00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:08,800
Speaker 3: he struggles and when he faces really good defenses, he

685
00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:09,720
Speaker 3: seems to struggle.

686
00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:12,479
Speaker 2: So as much as we have to rely on CJ.

687
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:14,239
Speaker 3: Here, and it's a little worrying some right, this is

688
00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:15,920
Speaker 3: gonna be the best pass for us the Texans have

689
00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:18,880
Speaker 3: faced all year, no doubt about it. I think this

690
00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:20,800
Speaker 3: is gonna be a great match for this Texas defense.

691
00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:22,399
Speaker 3: I think they're gonna get away with a bunch here

692
00:34:22,400 --> 00:34:26,759
Speaker 3: and to me, that secondary of this Denver team, they

693
00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:28,920
Speaker 3: can be passed on downfield. And you saw last week

694
00:34:29,200 --> 00:34:32,440
Speaker 3: when CJ. Gets going his downfield throws. They look in rhythm.

695
00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:34,319
Speaker 3: That's how they can beat you, right, getting you really

696
00:34:34,480 --> 00:34:40,040
Speaker 3: spread out. So another game where I was looking for

697
00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:42,440
Speaker 3: reasons to maybe get off Houston because it feels like

698
00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:43,759
Speaker 3: I've been riding him a little bit here and they've

699
00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:46,759
Speaker 3: been cashing for me. But it's another great match for them.

700
00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:49,239
Speaker 3: And you know, we'll talk about we can talk maybe

701
00:34:49,239 --> 00:34:53,160
Speaker 3: about the fort Ninitars game, but basically this Houston team,

702
00:34:53,480 --> 00:34:57,719
Speaker 3: their defense played like thirty snaps like their offense. I

703
00:34:57,719 --> 00:35:00,640
Speaker 3: think they played seventy five or seventy six snaps against

704
00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:05,000
Speaker 3: that forty nine Ers defense. Historically really good defense like

705
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:07,280
Speaker 3: defenses like them. They're giving up like less than twenty

706
00:35:07,280 --> 00:35:10,239
Speaker 3: points per game. When they play a following game where

707
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 3: they played less than forty snaps. It's been really beneficial

708
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:16,200
Speaker 3: for that defense, right, It's like a mini buy for them.

709
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:20,640
Speaker 3: So I like the spot of this Houston team being

710
00:35:20,640 --> 00:35:22,920
Speaker 3: semi arrested because they had such an easy matchup the

711
00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:26,120
Speaker 3: previous weekend. Just the fact that Denver feels a little overvalued.

712
00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:28,480
Speaker 3: People are still feels like they're looking at their records, right,

713
00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:31,120
Speaker 3: You're still looking at the Euston team that and the

714
00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:32,920
Speaker 3: public GUYE is not that good. I mean it was

715
00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:36,040
Speaker 3: just what two weeks ago they had one win and

716
00:35:36,080 --> 00:35:38,160
Speaker 3: they had I think it was four loss or five losses.

717
00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:42,120
Speaker 3: So I think it's another spot for them to keep cruising.

718
00:35:42,120 --> 00:35:45,440
Speaker 3: And yeah, really banking here on this defense. Honestly, just

719
00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:47,600
Speaker 3: like last week, it's forty nine ers, like, Yeah, I

720
00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 3: think we're both in agree. We don't really trust Houston's offense,

721
00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:53,799
Speaker 3: but this defense, you know, between Will Anderson and in

722
00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:57,160
Speaker 3: the secondary, it's just a really, really great defense Houston

723
00:35:57,200 --> 00:35:57,799
Speaker 3: has this year.

724
00:35:58,280 --> 00:36:00,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what's interesting to me. And you're right, by

725
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:03,520
Speaker 1: the way, the Texans last week had seventy five plays

726
00:36:03,520 --> 00:36:07,400
Speaker 1: on offense and only forty four plays on defense, so

727
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:10,560
Speaker 1: you know, a good twenty five percent less than what

728
00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:14,520
Speaker 1: a team would normally play if most teams get about

729
00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:22,040
Speaker 1: twenty get about sixty snaps. So on defense, I feel

730
00:36:22,080 --> 00:36:25,239
Speaker 1: like the defense is what's being forgotten in this conversation

731
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:28,880
Speaker 1: for the Texans. Everyone is always so focused on CJ.

732
00:36:29,040 --> 00:36:32,200
Speaker 1: Stroud and his struggles and that he hasn't been playing

733
00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:35,160
Speaker 1: as well and that he's missing throws. And last week

734
00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:38,120
Speaker 1: was a good game for CJ. Because they were consistent,

735
00:36:38,160 --> 00:36:39,960
Speaker 1: They did have a lot of long drives. He was

736
00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:43,959
Speaker 1: converting for the most part. But people forget how good

737
00:36:44,000 --> 00:36:48,480
Speaker 1: this defense is and it's better than the Broncos defense,

738
00:36:49,320 --> 00:36:52,200
Speaker 1: and I don't know if that's being discussed as much

739
00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:55,760
Speaker 1: like the Houston Texans defense is on pace to set

740
00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:59,719
Speaker 1: multiple NFL records over the course of a season for

741
00:36:59,760 --> 00:37:03,680
Speaker 1: how they're playing. So that's the reason why I like it.

742
00:37:03,680 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 1: It's they're missing Sir ten on defense for the Broncos,

743
00:37:06,920 --> 00:37:10,080
Speaker 1: and the Texans defense is freaking awesome, and I feel

744
00:37:10,080 --> 00:37:15,040
Speaker 1: like it's being slept on. Love it, you know what

745
00:37:15,080 --> 00:37:22,399
Speaker 1: you don't love, which I do. Jacksonville Jaguars minus two

746
00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:24,920
Speaker 1: and a half, minus one twenty at hard Rock, so

747
00:37:25,040 --> 00:37:29,400
Speaker 1: most places, it's minus three at the Las Vegas Raiders.

748
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:33,600
Speaker 1: You say this is square, you say it's a trap.

749
00:37:35,080 --> 00:37:39,680
Speaker 1: I say it's obvious. And this is even with Max

750
00:37:39,760 --> 00:37:42,960
Speaker 1: Crosby expected to play. He did not practice on Wednesday,

751
00:37:43,440 --> 00:37:47,160
Speaker 1: made me limited on Friday back injury. He's the only

752
00:37:47,200 --> 00:37:51,480
Speaker 1: weapon that would scare me as a uh that should

753
00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:55,040
Speaker 1: scare the Jaguars on offense because the real question here

754
00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:58,760
Speaker 1: is about Gino brock Bauers will be back, Can Ginos

755
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:00,799
Speaker 1: be can Gino be so much much better with brock

756
00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:05,319
Speaker 1: ba hours that it will allow the Raiders to be

757
00:38:05,480 --> 00:38:09,040
Speaker 1: offensively competent because I do think both teams are going

758
00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:12,359
Speaker 1: to have to score a crap load of points in

759
00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:12,840
Speaker 1: this game.

760
00:38:14,719 --> 00:38:17,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's again a game two three years ago. I

761
00:38:17,800 --> 00:38:21,200
Speaker 3: would be fighting you on taking a huge stan. I

762
00:38:21,280 --> 00:38:23,399
Speaker 3: got no interest in doing that with this game here,

763
00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:27,040
Speaker 3: like I will put my energy elsewhere. But I'm glad

764
00:38:27,120 --> 00:38:30,840
Speaker 3: the professionals backed me up, like clearly, like they the

765
00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:31,640
Speaker 3: money came out.

766
00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:32,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, totally.

767
00:38:32,360 --> 00:38:35,280
Speaker 3: The Raiders three and a half apparently was a gift.

768
00:38:35,520 --> 00:38:37,319
Speaker 3: I'm kind of mad I missed it. But it's like

769
00:38:37,880 --> 00:38:39,680
Speaker 3: I just was like, Okay, maybe this will get to

770
00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:42,440
Speaker 3: five or six, like let this keep running, and it didn't.

771
00:38:42,440 --> 00:38:45,680
Speaker 3: They hammered it like this now Mice two and a half,

772
00:38:46,600 --> 00:38:49,000
Speaker 3: I could be talking into it, honestly, even though I

773
00:38:49,080 --> 00:38:51,880
Speaker 3: know for a million reasons the wrong bet the wrong side.

774
00:38:51,880 --> 00:38:56,880
Speaker 3: You're betting Trevor Lawrence on the road as a favorite,

775
00:38:57,160 --> 00:39:00,480
Speaker 3: and he's beloved by public money. I mean, just every

776
00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:03,280
Speaker 3: book maker I talked to, all different books it's all

777
00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:07,120
Speaker 3: JAG's money, never any amount of it. And what Chad

778
00:39:07,120 --> 00:39:08,640
Speaker 3: just said it's for good reason, Like if there's no

779
00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:12,799
Speaker 3: Max Crosby, what is the fear Trevor Lawrence who's giving

780
00:39:12,920 --> 00:39:17,239
Speaker 3: him issues that day? The only thing you can hang

781
00:39:17,360 --> 00:39:20,920
Speaker 3: on is this will be Geno Smith finds it and

782
00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:23,359
Speaker 3: it's a shootout right, thirty four to thirty one, last

783
00:39:23,400 --> 00:39:27,080
Speaker 3: team as the ball wins it. So it's a crazy line,

784
00:39:27,120 --> 00:39:28,640
Speaker 3: like I just can't give the way the books are

785
00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:31,239
Speaker 3: praising it. I took some on the over just in

786
00:39:31,239 --> 00:39:33,960
Speaker 3: case there is no Max Crosby. The total is forty

787
00:39:33,960 --> 00:39:36,480
Speaker 3: four and a half, Like, okay, I'll bite on that,

788
00:39:38,080 --> 00:39:40,440
Speaker 3: but you could talk to me to probably come Sunday.

789
00:39:40,480 --> 00:39:41,560
Speaker 2: I just my whole job.

790
00:39:41,560 --> 00:39:44,040
Speaker 3: He was trying to protect people and just get them

791
00:39:44,080 --> 00:39:46,239
Speaker 3: the insight out here, and it's like I knew the

792
00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:47,000
Speaker 3: pros would beyond this.

793
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:50,359
Speaker 2: I was trying to protect you and them. Even though

794
00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:50,880
Speaker 2: I hate this.

795
00:39:50,920 --> 00:39:52,840
Speaker 3: I do not want to have a plant Life flag

796
00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:55,840
Speaker 3: and stand tall on the raiders in Geno Smith, but

797
00:39:56,280 --> 00:39:57,920
Speaker 3: I just every inch of my body, just like you

798
00:39:57,960 --> 00:40:00,879
Speaker 3: are with Pittsburgh. It feels like that's the wrong thing

799
00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:04,040
Speaker 3: to do. But when I'm fading Pittsburgh, I'm fading him

800
00:40:04,080 --> 00:40:07,440
Speaker 3: with the number one offense and Daniel Jones and that

801
00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:09,240
Speaker 3: juggernaut of a Colts offense.

802
00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:11,000
Speaker 2: I can't feel.

803
00:40:10,719 --> 00:40:14,879
Speaker 3: Confident in the same with Trevor Lawrence, who just never

804
00:40:15,000 --> 00:40:18,120
Speaker 3: ending amount lets it's down going back, not that you

805
00:40:18,160 --> 00:40:19,359
Speaker 3: have a horseship your ass JAD.

806
00:40:19,760 --> 00:40:22,640
Speaker 2: I cannot believe we covered that Jags Chiefs game, like

807
00:40:22,680 --> 00:40:25,600
Speaker 2: now that we're three weeks out, like this Chiefs team

808
00:40:25,600 --> 00:40:27,879
Speaker 2: has been absolute incredible and it's like.

809
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:30,359
Speaker 1: Oh, that was a miracle, a miracle cover.

810
00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:33,799
Speaker 2: So that's maybe my biggest issues. I just can't get over.

811
00:40:34,520 --> 00:40:37,239
Speaker 3: This Jags team still is not the type of team

812
00:40:37,280 --> 00:40:39,120
Speaker 3: that deserves the amount of respect they're getting right now.

813
00:40:39,160 --> 00:40:42,040
Speaker 3: But like we said, this is really you betting about

814
00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:44,759
Speaker 3: how bad this Raiders team is, how bad Gino has been,

815
00:40:45,040 --> 00:40:46,719
Speaker 3: and you're getting a good number now, especially in my

816
00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:48,640
Speaker 3: two and a half at a hard rock, So again,

817
00:40:48,640 --> 00:40:50,080
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna be a hard time. I just was

818
00:40:50,120 --> 00:40:52,080
Speaker 3: at the three because it was like, what are we

819
00:40:52,160 --> 00:40:54,200
Speaker 3: doing here? We're just gonna walk into all these traps.

820
00:40:54,200 --> 00:40:56,680
Speaker 3: But maybe the Lions moved so much we got the

821
00:40:56,680 --> 00:40:58,520
Speaker 3: best of the number here in the pros, they got

822
00:40:58,560 --> 00:40:59,880
Speaker 3: the best of the number of three and a half.

823
00:41:00,280 --> 00:41:04,200
Speaker 1: Schematically, I like the fact that the Raiders don't know

824
00:41:04,239 --> 00:41:07,920
Speaker 1: how to cover that their defensive backfield is just so

825
00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:11,880
Speaker 1: bad and allowing the highest completion rate for quarterbacks in

826
00:41:11,880 --> 00:41:16,439
Speaker 1: the NFL. And so it's also to me more than

827
00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:18,719
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence, it's a bet on Liam Cohane. I like

828
00:41:18,760 --> 00:41:21,400
Speaker 1: Liam Cohne. I think he's a good coach, and I

829
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:24,240
Speaker 1: think he'll do more over the bye week to scheme

830
00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:27,760
Speaker 1: up a win and make things good for Trevor Lawrence.

831
00:41:28,160 --> 00:41:30,000
Speaker 1: Then I have faith in Pete Carroll and what he

832
00:41:30,040 --> 00:41:32,400
Speaker 1: can do with just a depleted talents.

833
00:41:32,920 --> 00:41:34,920
Speaker 3: And I'll give the one trend. We all know the

834
00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:38,680
Speaker 3: one trend what's going to be. It's basically a team

835
00:41:38,760 --> 00:41:42,279
Speaker 3: with a win percentage below forty percent a game after

836
00:41:42,280 --> 00:41:45,600
Speaker 3: the game they just lost by thirty plus points ninety six,

837
00:41:46,160 --> 00:41:48,719
Speaker 3: sixty eight and four against the spread, so fifty nine

838
00:41:48,719 --> 00:41:52,880
Speaker 3: percent since two thousand and three. This season, those teams

839
00:41:52,880 --> 00:41:55,400
Speaker 3: in this exact spot, they're four and one against the spread.

840
00:41:55,440 --> 00:41:57,480
Speaker 3: So again it's a Raiders spot.

841
00:41:57,680 --> 00:41:58,359
Speaker 2: We know that.

842
00:41:58,480 --> 00:42:01,400
Speaker 3: But my whole point to agree with Chat is that

843
00:42:01,440 --> 00:42:03,160
Speaker 3: made the lines move so much at this point it

844
00:42:03,239 --> 00:42:06,839
Speaker 3: is a good Jack sign. But that's just I knew

845
00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:08,279
Speaker 3: there was gonna something of a trender for that, because

846
00:42:08,320 --> 00:42:10,319
Speaker 3: it's just like, man, why do I want to bet

847
00:42:10,320 --> 00:42:12,520
Speaker 3: this Raiders scene? There must be a reason, but I

848
00:42:12,560 --> 00:42:14,480
Speaker 3: hate it, and I'm glad it's moved so much. I

849
00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:16,200
Speaker 3: can maybe avoid it. I don't know if Check can

850
00:42:16,200 --> 00:42:17,680
Speaker 3: avoid it now he loves his jackside.

851
00:42:17,719 --> 00:42:19,439
Speaker 1: Oh no, I already bet the Jags and minus three.

852
00:42:19,680 --> 00:42:21,719
Speaker 2: Oh God, we'll get the two and a half. You've

853
00:42:21,719 --> 00:42:22,879
Speaker 2: at least got a good number now.

854
00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:26,840
Speaker 1: I definitely bet the Jags and minus three Kansas City,

855
00:42:27,160 --> 00:42:29,759
Speaker 1: Kansas City minus two at Buffalo. This was Simon says

856
00:42:29,760 --> 00:42:33,360
Speaker 1: when it was one and a half. It's moved towards

857
00:42:33,400 --> 00:42:38,600
Speaker 1: two at a lot of places, but when it hits two,

858
00:42:40,560 --> 00:42:45,320
Speaker 1: it seems like some buyback has happened on the Buffalo Bills.

859
00:42:46,080 --> 00:42:48,560
Speaker 1: No Isaiah Pacheco win this game for the Chiefs, but

860
00:42:48,600 --> 00:42:51,160
Speaker 1: no Wad Oliver for the Bills. Like in the scheme

861
00:42:51,160 --> 00:42:53,640
Speaker 1: of things, I think that's a much worse situation for

862
00:42:53,719 --> 00:42:58,560
Speaker 1: the Bills than it is for the Chiefs. I'm gonna

863
00:42:58,600 --> 00:43:00,600
Speaker 1: like back in Mahomes as a short fit just about

864
00:43:00,600 --> 00:43:05,520
Speaker 1: any scenario. I like backing the unit offensively that I

865
00:43:05,520 --> 00:43:09,640
Speaker 1: think is more complete against the depleted defense. I know

866
00:43:09,920 --> 00:43:13,840
Speaker 1: that the Chiefs are riding high. I know they've been covering,

867
00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:20,440
Speaker 1: but I think there's a difference between a Cults riding

868
00:43:20,560 --> 00:43:25,120
Speaker 1: high and covering and a Chiefs riding high and covering.

869
00:43:25,560 --> 00:43:28,239
Speaker 1: And I know you're with me on this. I don't

870
00:43:28,239 --> 00:43:30,400
Speaker 1: think we're buyers on the Bills defense. And that's the

871
00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:31,279
Speaker 1: biggest problem to me.

872
00:43:32,760 --> 00:43:34,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, not a buyer and the Bill's defense, and I

873
00:43:34,520 --> 00:43:36,719
Speaker 3: just I'm not a buyer in josh a on right now,

874
00:43:36,840 --> 00:43:41,600
Speaker 3: Like I just something seems off with them. I talked

875
00:43:41,600 --> 00:43:44,120
Speaker 3: about it going into the draft process. The number one

876
00:43:44,120 --> 00:43:48,680
Speaker 3: guy I trast trust for wide receiver evaluation is Steve Smith.

877
00:43:49,239 --> 00:43:53,520
Speaker 3: He's he does not pull punches when he breaks down

878
00:43:54,239 --> 00:43:58,279
Speaker 3: this buffalo receiving corps like Kean Coleman, he says he

879
00:43:58,280 --> 00:44:00,440
Speaker 3: shouldn't even be in the league, like this guy I

880
00:44:00,480 --> 00:44:04,959
Speaker 3: can't get separation, doesn't run, Chris Broutes, doesn't help Josh Allen,

881
00:44:05,040 --> 00:44:08,560
Speaker 3: Josh Allenson scramble mode, which Shakir you know he's been

882
00:44:08,560 --> 00:44:10,680
Speaker 3: a great receiver for that because he does that for them.

883
00:44:10,719 --> 00:44:14,480
Speaker 3: So that's allowing twenty points reviewer. So it's happened twenty

884
00:44:14,520 --> 00:44:17,080
Speaker 3: eight times in his career, he is twenty three and

885
00:44:17,120 --> 00:44:20,280
Speaker 3: five straight up against those teams, twenty two and five

886
00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:23,800
Speaker 3: ats against those type of teams. That's what makes him superman.

887
00:44:23,840 --> 00:44:25,719
Speaker 3: That's why he's the MVP of the league. Last year,

888
00:44:25,800 --> 00:44:28,160
Speaker 3: Josh Allen, he faces his dominant defense, it didn't matter.

889
00:44:28,239 --> 00:44:31,759
Speaker 3: He's there's no scheme to stop him right now. Just

890
00:44:31,760 --> 00:44:33,920
Speaker 3: feels like his receivers himself or beating themselves. He just

891
00:44:34,000 --> 00:44:37,319
Speaker 3: doesn't look comfortable. His throws aren't great. He doesn't make

892
00:44:37,320 --> 00:44:40,000
Speaker 3: the right reads either, like he just locks into guys,

893
00:44:40,480 --> 00:44:42,160
Speaker 3: and when he's in scramble mode, doesn't feel like his

894
00:44:42,200 --> 00:44:44,480
Speaker 3: receivers are helping him out either. So you know, just

895
00:44:44,520 --> 00:44:46,560
Speaker 3: going back to the data too, him being a home dog,

896
00:44:47,040 --> 00:44:47,680
Speaker 3: super rare.

897
00:44:47,880 --> 00:44:49,640
Speaker 2: Like I look through it.

898
00:44:49,640 --> 00:44:52,960
Speaker 3: It's only happened about five times, and he's won every time.

899
00:44:53,000 --> 00:44:59,480
Speaker 3: The only one loss was too Momes, So we know

900
00:44:59,520 --> 00:45:02,120
Speaker 3: the deal. Like you said, the resistance is that too.

901
00:45:02,920 --> 00:45:04,680
Speaker 3: A bunch of books did hit two and a half.

902
00:45:05,719 --> 00:45:07,439
Speaker 3: A ton of money came in, A ton of money

903
00:45:07,440 --> 00:45:10,000
Speaker 3: came in on this bills team shocked had held it too.

904
00:45:10,040 --> 00:45:11,320
Speaker 3: I thought it would go back down at one and

905
00:45:11,320 --> 00:45:13,759
Speaker 3: a half, So that's what I keep telling people it

906
00:45:13,800 --> 00:45:16,040
Speaker 3: is split. The Pros are split down the middle here,

907
00:45:16,040 --> 00:45:18,200
Speaker 3: and like me, I've taken a large position on this

908
00:45:18,280 --> 00:45:18,680
Speaker 3: Chiefs team.

909
00:45:18,719 --> 00:45:19,399
Speaker 2: I really like it.

910
00:45:19,760 --> 00:45:21,279
Speaker 3: I know some guys out of their way, they've taken

911
00:45:21,320 --> 00:45:23,520
Speaker 3: really large position on this Bill, especially now they've gotten

912
00:45:23,520 --> 00:45:26,560
Speaker 3: the two and a half. So I love these type

913
00:45:26,560 --> 00:45:28,440
Speaker 3: of games, right, It's gonna be one in the sports books,

914
00:45:28,440 --> 00:45:29,960
Speaker 3: a lot of yell, a lot of back and forth.

915
00:45:31,320 --> 00:45:34,280
Speaker 3: I just think one team and the Chiefs, like Schad said,

916
00:45:34,920 --> 00:45:38,399
Speaker 3: Pachecko's a big injury, there's no doubt about it, but

917
00:45:38,440 --> 00:45:40,760
Speaker 3: Pachecko still has not been right since coming back from

918
00:45:41,719 --> 00:45:45,400
Speaker 3: his injuries, still os last two years. And the flip side,

919
00:45:45,520 --> 00:45:48,640
Speaker 3: I just think defensively, offensively, all feels like it's clicking for.

920
00:45:48,560 --> 00:45:49,239
Speaker 2: This Chiefs team.

921
00:45:50,200 --> 00:45:52,160
Speaker 3: If they feel like a totally different team than what

922
00:45:52,200 --> 00:45:54,960
Speaker 3: they were the started season, just because they've gotten so healthy,

923
00:45:55,400 --> 00:45:58,840
Speaker 3: the young defense, they're playing in rhythm with spacks, defensive calls.

924
00:45:58,880 --> 00:46:01,239
Speaker 2: So I love it. It's a true test here for

925
00:46:01,280 --> 00:46:02,160
Speaker 2: this Chiefs defense.

926
00:46:02,200 --> 00:46:05,160
Speaker 3: And on the flip side, Mahomes in this offense, they

927
00:46:05,160 --> 00:46:07,399
Speaker 3: should have no problem against this Bill's defense, like this

928
00:46:07,480 --> 00:46:08,480
Speaker 3: is a great matchup for them.

929
00:46:08,520 --> 00:46:09,759
Speaker 2: So it really is.

930
00:46:09,800 --> 00:46:12,520
Speaker 3: Once again, we all know Cook top five running back,

931
00:46:12,520 --> 00:46:15,320
Speaker 3: he's a game changer. I thinks Back takes him away

932
00:46:15,400 --> 00:46:17,279
Speaker 3: and puts it all on Josh Allen because Josh Allen,

933
00:46:17,320 --> 00:46:19,560
Speaker 3: like I said, he's just struggled this year. He's not

934
00:46:19,640 --> 00:46:21,640
Speaker 3: been I know they have him as like a top

935
00:46:21,680 --> 00:46:24,759
Speaker 3: three guy in the MVP voting. That's super fraudulent to me.

936
00:46:24,800 --> 00:46:27,040
Speaker 3: He's had a very easy schedule. He's just not playing

937
00:46:27,040 --> 00:46:29,640
Speaker 3: at the level expecting to play out. So I love

938
00:46:29,680 --> 00:46:32,680
Speaker 3: this is a true test for him, and shockingly game

939
00:46:32,719 --> 00:46:34,920
Speaker 3: they kind of need to keep up with his Patriots

940
00:46:34,920 --> 00:46:37,240
Speaker 3: team in their division in a game, the Chiefs need

941
00:46:37,280 --> 00:46:39,160
Speaker 3: to keep up with Denver in their own division. So

942
00:46:39,680 --> 00:46:41,760
Speaker 3: I love it that both these teams are semi desperate

943
00:46:42,200 --> 00:46:44,799
Speaker 3: and all the history behind this matchup. So I am

944
00:46:44,840 --> 00:46:46,600
Speaker 3: glad you're in sync with me on this Chiefs team

945
00:46:47,040 --> 00:46:49,080
Speaker 3: because this is that type of game where I could

946
00:46:49,120 --> 00:46:50,640
Speaker 3: see why you would be on the bill. So it

947
00:46:50,680 --> 00:46:52,759
Speaker 3: feels good at least we're in sync and well up

948
00:46:52,760 --> 00:46:54,880
Speaker 3: to three games now that we like to put in

949
00:46:55,000 --> 00:46:57,200
Speaker 3: so we make them stack.

950
00:46:57,560 --> 00:47:00,960
Speaker 1: We're getting there. You may really good point about the

951
00:47:00,960 --> 00:47:04,640
Speaker 1: playoffs versus the regular season. This is a playoff game.

952
00:47:05,320 --> 00:47:05,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, right.

953
00:47:05,960 --> 00:47:07,680
Speaker 1: The Chiefs are five and three, the Bills are five

954
00:47:07,719 --> 00:47:10,320
Speaker 1: and two. The Bills are tied a top the AFC

955
00:47:10,360 --> 00:47:12,400
Speaker 1: East with the.

956
00:47:11,600 --> 00:47:13,799
Speaker 2: Patriots behind a half a game.

957
00:47:14,040 --> 00:47:17,080
Speaker 1: They're right, they're behind half a game. The Chiefs are

958
00:47:17,120 --> 00:47:19,440
Speaker 1: five and three, the Broncos are six and two. So

959
00:47:20,520 --> 00:47:22,600
Speaker 1: this is a game that, over the course of the

960
00:47:22,640 --> 00:47:27,520
Speaker 1: season is going to have a huge impact on playoff seedings.

961
00:47:27,920 --> 00:47:30,439
Speaker 1: If the Chiefs continue to play as well as they've

962
00:47:30,440 --> 00:47:34,000
Speaker 1: been playing, could be after this weekend, if what happens,

963
00:47:34,040 --> 00:47:36,080
Speaker 1: if what we expect to happen happens, the Broncos are

964
00:47:36,120 --> 00:47:41,160
Speaker 1: going to be have three losses. So the Chiefs need

965
00:47:41,200 --> 00:47:44,000
Speaker 1: to keep pace. They can't go to five and four

966
00:47:44,680 --> 00:47:46,560
Speaker 1: playing as well as they've been playing. And to me,

967
00:47:46,640 --> 00:47:49,880
Speaker 1: it actually is about that defense. They've just been so

968
00:47:50,239 --> 00:47:53,520
Speaker 1: in sink since that Jaguars game. It's almost like they

969
00:47:53,520 --> 00:47:56,839
Speaker 1: were so embarrassed in that Jaguars game and the way

970
00:47:57,000 --> 00:47:59,360
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence was able to get into the end zone

971
00:47:59,640 --> 00:48:03,839
Speaker 1: off of a botched play. I think they've just been

972
00:48:03,920 --> 00:48:07,960
Speaker 1: a different team. So hopefully that continues to be the

973
00:48:08,080 --> 00:48:08,920
Speaker 1: case this But.

974
00:48:08,920 --> 00:48:11,080
Speaker 3: Again I don't put on the defense like to me,

975
00:48:11,160 --> 00:48:13,480
Speaker 3: they're two of their worst losses this year, the Eagles

976
00:48:13,760 --> 00:48:14,680
Speaker 3: and that Jags game.

977
00:48:15,280 --> 00:48:17,760
Speaker 2: I think like they should. I think he does himself.

978
00:48:17,760 --> 00:48:21,680
Speaker 2: Mahomes puts on himself those two pick sixes. Yep, again

979
00:48:21,760 --> 00:48:23,160
Speaker 2: red zone picks sixes there.

980
00:48:23,960 --> 00:48:26,200
Speaker 3: Even even Mahomes is human enough that that that he

981
00:48:26,239 --> 00:48:27,200
Speaker 3: can't bounce back from.

982
00:48:27,120 --> 00:48:27,800
Speaker 2: This type of scenario.

983
00:48:27,960 --> 00:48:31,279
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's it is interesting, like they could, like

984
00:48:31,320 --> 00:48:33,359
Speaker 3: you just said, their record could be totally different if

985
00:48:33,360 --> 00:48:36,160
Speaker 3: Mahomes didn't throw those two pick sixes in there when

986
00:48:36,160 --> 00:48:38,839
Speaker 3: he's about to score a touchdowns. So, like we said,

987
00:48:38,880 --> 00:48:41,359
Speaker 3: it's Philly God Chiefs teams still little undervalued here, we're

988
00:48:41,360 --> 00:48:42,520
Speaker 3: getting a good number on them.

989
00:48:43,040 --> 00:48:45,279
Speaker 1: I put in these last two games, which happened to

990
00:48:45,320 --> 00:48:48,360
Speaker 1: be the primetime games, because I think we disagree.

991
00:48:48,160 --> 00:48:50,280
Speaker 2: Yamahama, It's fright night.

992
00:48:50,680 --> 00:48:53,399
Speaker 1: Seattle at Washington. Washington was at three and a half.

993
00:48:53,400 --> 00:48:55,640
Speaker 2: It's down to three commanders.

994
00:48:55,800 --> 00:48:59,200
Speaker 1: I like the Commanders three and a half. I like

995
00:48:59,239 --> 00:49:02,080
Speaker 1: at three. I'm sorry of off it, but at three

996
00:49:02,120 --> 00:49:05,000
Speaker 1: and a half, I liked the Commanders, and that's where

997
00:49:05,080 --> 00:49:09,400
Speaker 1: the money has taken it. Yeah, Arizona at Dallas, I

998
00:49:09,520 --> 00:49:12,040
Speaker 1: like Dallas at two and a half. I think you

999
00:49:12,160 --> 00:49:12,840
Speaker 1: like Arizona.

1000
00:49:14,200 --> 00:49:21,000
Speaker 2: The Cowboys are pro football's glamourgy, dynamic, progressive and spectacular.

1001
00:49:21,800 --> 00:49:24,520
Speaker 3: Again like Arizona, it's not a I'm not going to

1002
00:49:24,600 --> 00:49:26,480
Speaker 3: fight you on if you if Sunday morning you want

1003
00:49:26,480 --> 00:49:27,919
Speaker 3: to put Dallas and it's my two and a half,

1004
00:49:28,120 --> 00:49:29,920
Speaker 3: I'm there. Whether you want to hear some Dax stats,

1005
00:49:29,920 --> 00:49:31,919
Speaker 3: I got pat stats for data.

1006
00:49:31,920 --> 00:49:34,840
Speaker 1: Do you want to share fantastic, Well, quickly I'll do.

1007
00:49:35,400 --> 00:49:38,200
Speaker 3: I just thought this was interesting about Sam Darnold, Like

1008
00:49:38,840 --> 00:49:40,600
Speaker 3: I feel like we do give him loving some of

1009
00:49:40,600 --> 00:49:42,680
Speaker 3: his flowers, but I just thought it was interesting that

1010
00:49:43,440 --> 00:49:46,080
Speaker 3: going back even at twenty twenty when he was before

1011
00:49:46,120 --> 00:49:48,160
Speaker 3: he became the same darn we know and love. Now

1012
00:49:49,120 --> 00:49:53,080
Speaker 3: he's like incredible off bye weeks. Like it's it's really

1013
00:49:53,160 --> 00:49:54,760
Speaker 3: wild when you go back and look at his stats.

1014
00:49:54,960 --> 00:49:57,439
Speaker 3: He averages twenty seven point five points per game after

1015
00:49:57,480 --> 00:50:00,279
Speaker 3: bye weeks, So it's I just thought that was nique

1016
00:50:00,280 --> 00:50:02,000
Speaker 3: because it's not just a fluke from like last year

1017
00:50:02,000 --> 00:50:05,440
Speaker 3: with the Vikings, it's all throughout his career. Whatever that

1018
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:07,879
Speaker 3: extent of prep is, he does really get really well,

1019
00:50:07,920 --> 00:50:11,200
Speaker 3: and we know this commander's defense is atrocious.

1020
00:50:11,400 --> 00:50:13,240
Speaker 2: I mean, they are horrible.

1021
00:50:13,120 --> 00:50:18,320
Speaker 3: And that's why, like I'm I am totally understanding of

1022
00:50:18,360 --> 00:50:20,919
Speaker 3: why you're on Washington you like them because like same

1023
00:50:21,000 --> 00:50:23,239
Speaker 3: with Pittsburgh. So all these games we're talking about here,

1024
00:50:23,440 --> 00:50:26,319
Speaker 3: you're playing a number in a situation where this is

1025
00:50:26,320 --> 00:50:28,480
Speaker 3: going to be a heavily public side in the Seahawks

1026
00:50:28,760 --> 00:50:31,560
Speaker 3: on the road in a primetime game. Historically it probably

1027
00:50:31,560 --> 00:50:34,040
Speaker 3: would be a good spot for the Commanders. But you

1028
00:50:34,120 --> 00:50:37,319
Speaker 3: got a bum knee and Jane Daniels playing against a

1029
00:50:37,360 --> 00:50:41,040
Speaker 3: ferocious defense in Seattle that travels really well, and you're

1030
00:50:41,080 --> 00:50:46,040
Speaker 3: just taking away Terry McLaurin again, Like I mean, you

1031
00:50:46,040 --> 00:50:48,440
Speaker 3: saw him in that Chiefs game. He was the only

1032
00:50:48,440 --> 00:50:51,960
Speaker 3: one doing anything like Deebo. He already looks like it's

1033
00:50:52,000 --> 00:50:54,799
Speaker 3: week seventeen on those legs. He's just not running like

1034
00:50:54,840 --> 00:50:57,920
Speaker 3: he was in those first two three weeks. So I

1035
00:50:58,120 --> 00:50:59,959
Speaker 3: just I get what you're doing here. You're playing the number,

1036
00:51:00,000 --> 00:51:02,080
Speaker 3: and it's the professional side. The pros are on this,

1037
00:51:02,239 --> 00:51:04,360
Speaker 3: Like I said, the public, it's a noow. They're just

1038
00:51:04,400 --> 00:51:06,200
Speaker 3: like me with the Colts, is a very public side

1039
00:51:06,239 --> 00:51:07,319
Speaker 3: of me taking the Seahawks here.

1040
00:51:07,360 --> 00:51:09,800
Speaker 2: But once again, I'm backing what I think.

1041
00:51:09,680 --> 00:51:13,680
Speaker 3: Is a really consistent good offense and rhythm, and those

1042
00:51:13,719 --> 00:51:15,360
Speaker 3: Sam Donald stats can be a peace of mind. It

1043
00:51:15,360 --> 00:51:17,960
Speaker 3: doesn't seem like he has letdowns because this is a

1044
00:51:18,040 --> 00:51:20,760
Speaker 3: letdown spot for Seattle. Like we talked about trap spots,

1045
00:51:20,760 --> 00:51:24,160
Speaker 3: this is the definition of a trap spot. So that's

1046
00:51:24,480 --> 00:51:25,839
Speaker 3: those are just some stats I whant to give out.

1047
00:51:25,880 --> 00:51:28,200
Speaker 3: So yeah, we're obviously on the opposite sides with that one.

1048
00:51:29,200 --> 00:51:30,840
Speaker 3: Let's let's go to the Cowboys game, because I do

1049
00:51:30,880 --> 00:51:35,719
Speaker 3: have some great Dak stats. You're You're probably right here

1050
00:51:35,719 --> 00:51:37,960
Speaker 3: with your early read, and I'm probably missing it. I'm

1051
00:51:38,000 --> 00:51:40,359
Speaker 3: probably overvaluing the effect the Cardinals. All their games are

1052
00:51:40,400 --> 00:51:42,839
Speaker 3: so close. This does seem like the type of game

1053
00:51:42,840 --> 00:51:45,239
Speaker 3: where Dak could open it up and beat up on

1054
00:51:45,280 --> 00:51:49,319
Speaker 3: this team. Uh, you know it's a prime time game, right,

1055
00:51:49,560 --> 00:51:53,320
Speaker 3: But I mean you talked about it. It's it really

1056
00:51:53,400 --> 00:51:55,400
Speaker 3: is a you're betting on Dak and nothing else when

1057
00:51:55,400 --> 00:51:58,080
Speaker 3: you bet this team. So I'll give some great Dak

1058
00:51:58,160 --> 00:52:00,879
Speaker 3: stats about him, just in these night games. He's twenty

1059
00:52:00,960 --> 00:52:03,200
Speaker 3: nine to fifteen and won his career in night games

1060
00:52:03,680 --> 00:52:06,560
Speaker 3: twenty six and eighteen ATS and night games that's two

1061
00:52:06,600 --> 00:52:09,560
Speaker 3: and oh this season as well. People probably remember covered

1062
00:52:09,600 --> 00:52:13,799
Speaker 3: against that Eagles Week one, and Packers is a guy

1063
00:52:13,840 --> 00:52:16,400
Speaker 3: that you know. Since twenty twenty one in night games,

1064
00:52:16,719 --> 00:52:19,640
Speaker 3: he's fourteen and seven against the spread. And so like,

1065
00:52:19,800 --> 00:52:23,279
Speaker 3: Dak shows up in primetime games and plays well, we've

1066
00:52:23,280 --> 00:52:28,080
Speaker 3: seen that consistently. And you know, when they're playing these

1067
00:52:28,200 --> 00:52:32,680
Speaker 3: night games since twenty twenty at home, Dak's.

1068
00:52:31,800 --> 00:52:33,880
Speaker 2: Perfect as a favorite. He's a perfect thirteen.

1069
00:52:33,640 --> 00:52:36,960
Speaker 3: And oh, beating his opponents by almost nineteen points per

1070
00:52:37,040 --> 00:52:39,400
Speaker 3: game in the spot. So like, there's a lot of

1071
00:52:39,440 --> 00:52:42,480
Speaker 3: stats to love with Dak playing in these prime time

1072
00:52:42,640 --> 00:52:47,239
Speaker 3: night games. And maybe I am over rallying this Cardinals team,

1073
00:52:47,239 --> 00:52:49,080
Speaker 3: Like I said that they play all these close games,

1074
00:52:49,880 --> 00:52:52,799
Speaker 3: they are due to get blown out by somebody. Like

1075
00:52:52,840 --> 00:52:55,200
Speaker 3: the way they've been in all these games, how much

1076
00:52:55,239 --> 00:52:56,920
Speaker 3: longer can it go off for? They're just they're not

1077
00:52:57,040 --> 00:52:59,120
Speaker 3: that good of a team, like we've talked about. And

1078
00:53:00,200 --> 00:53:02,960
Speaker 3: you know it's a number now that's under three. At three,

1079
00:53:03,080 --> 00:53:05,279
Speaker 3: I was, okay, I could get there with Arizona. I'll

1080
00:53:05,280 --> 00:53:07,560
Speaker 3: take that, But now you're down to the key number

1081
00:53:07,560 --> 00:53:09,400
Speaker 3: of two and a half. Like I said, if you

1082
00:53:09,440 --> 00:53:10,400
Speaker 3: want to talk to me, in to it. After I've

1083
00:53:10,400 --> 00:53:12,920
Speaker 3: seen all those stats, about Dak and these exact performances

1084
00:53:12,920 --> 00:53:15,799
Speaker 3: in these X spots. It's like, all right, I won't

1085
00:53:15,840 --> 00:53:17,799
Speaker 3: fight it, I'll join chat, I guess, but I don't

1086
00:53:17,800 --> 00:53:18,640
Speaker 3: feel good about it.

1087
00:53:19,360 --> 00:53:23,280
Speaker 1: Well, look, I think we're agreed on the Chargers minus

1088
00:53:23,280 --> 00:53:25,720
Speaker 1: eight and a half, the Lions minus eight and a half,

1089
00:53:26,400 --> 00:53:30,280
Speaker 1: the Chiefs minus two, and Houston minus one and a half.

1090
00:53:30,600 --> 00:53:34,960
Speaker 1: So jesus, how do we end up loving and agreeing

1091
00:53:35,200 --> 00:53:37,400
Speaker 1: on four favorites?

1092
00:53:37,600 --> 00:53:39,680
Speaker 3: We're flipping all the dogs, like the dogs you like,

1093
00:53:40,000 --> 00:53:41,839
Speaker 3: I don't and the dogs I like you don't.

1094
00:53:41,920 --> 00:53:44,279
Speaker 1: That's right, It's just a weird won keeper, right who

1095
00:53:44,520 --> 00:53:46,920
Speaker 1: So who else could be the fifth? Do you know

1096
00:53:46,960 --> 00:53:47,399
Speaker 1: what I mean?

1097
00:53:48,400 --> 00:53:50,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think we'll have a we'll fight about it

1098
00:53:50,560 --> 00:53:52,759
Speaker 3: Sunday morning about getting that one lesson there, because like

1099
00:53:53,080 --> 00:53:54,120
Speaker 3: there's always a team one or.

1100
00:53:54,080 --> 00:53:55,520
Speaker 2: Two that pop up over the weekend.

1101
00:53:55,560 --> 00:53:57,680
Speaker 3: I end up loving more than I did today because

1102
00:53:57,680 --> 00:53:59,640
Speaker 3: I'm around different people and they're giving me different perspective

1103
00:53:59,640 --> 00:54:01,680
Speaker 3: and give me different numbers to look at.

1104
00:54:03,160 --> 00:54:03,720
Speaker 2: I did.

1105
00:54:03,920 --> 00:54:06,040
Speaker 3: I mean again, I hate it, but like it's a

1106
00:54:06,080 --> 00:54:08,600
Speaker 3: pro spot. That Giant spot's a very professional spot. Like

1107
00:54:08,640 --> 00:54:11,520
Speaker 3: I said that four nine ers team played whatever you said?

1108
00:54:11,520 --> 00:54:13,320
Speaker 3: It was sixty six naps on defense.

1109
00:54:13,880 --> 00:54:16,800
Speaker 2: Now they're all five. Yeah, back to back road.

1110
00:54:16,600 --> 00:54:19,960
Speaker 3: Game against a quarterback that scrambles and you have no

1111
00:54:20,040 --> 00:54:20,680
Speaker 3: pass rush.

1112
00:54:21,840 --> 00:54:25,640
Speaker 1: The Giants are so beat up they have they're already.

1113
00:54:26,200 --> 00:54:27,759
Speaker 2: I don't want to bet it. I'm just saying, like,

1114
00:54:28,239 --> 00:54:29,400
Speaker 2: that's what we're talking about though.

1115
00:54:29,400 --> 00:54:30,719
Speaker 3: That's when you dive in the numbers, and that's just

1116
00:54:30,760 --> 00:54:32,880
Speaker 3: you're betting the number because it's a it is a spot,

1117
00:54:32,920 --> 00:54:37,120
Speaker 3: it's a professional spot. So we'll see two Bears if

1118
00:54:37,120 --> 00:54:39,960
Speaker 3: there's no Flaco. Flaco is banged up. Yeah, it's still

1119
00:54:40,239 --> 00:54:42,520
Speaker 3: interesting two and a half. I could get there on

1120
00:54:42,560 --> 00:54:46,480
Speaker 3: the Bears, and I couldn't. It's an interesting spot for

1121
00:54:46,520 --> 00:54:48,719
Speaker 3: them as well. So there's there's some games I think

1122
00:54:48,719 --> 00:54:50,120
Speaker 3: we'll be able to pop them. But like you said,

1123
00:54:50,200 --> 00:54:50,920
Speaker 3: right now.

1124
00:54:51,000 --> 00:54:53,520
Speaker 2: We're just you know, and it happens every week.

1125
00:54:53,640 --> 00:54:55,400
Speaker 3: We've been very good this year, being kind of in

1126
00:54:55,480 --> 00:54:58,319
Speaker 3: sync finally a little bit split on the chalk and

1127
00:54:58,360 --> 00:55:01,239
Speaker 3: the dogs we like, and that's a lot of pros

1128
00:55:01,239 --> 00:55:01,560
Speaker 3: this week.

1129
00:55:01,600 --> 00:55:02,040
Speaker 2: It's that way.

1130
00:55:02,080 --> 00:55:05,200
Speaker 3: It's just the season just throwing you for a loop.

1131
00:55:05,239 --> 00:55:06,840
Speaker 3: It's just not going the way it usually goes with

1132
00:55:06,880 --> 00:55:09,160
Speaker 3: these dogs. So I'm just trying to be careful. That's

1133
00:55:09,160 --> 00:55:11,160
Speaker 3: why I like that we're so chalk heavy. The chalk

1134
00:55:11,400 --> 00:55:13,640
Speaker 3: it's been hitting for us again last week are only

1135
00:55:13,640 --> 00:55:16,160
Speaker 3: two losses of dogs, so it's just.

1136
00:55:17,000 --> 00:55:19,279
Speaker 2: We're trying to adjust. But it's hard, man, It is

1137
00:55:19,360 --> 00:55:21,280
Speaker 2: hard to do after all these years of betting dogs.

1138
00:55:21,600 --> 00:55:25,919
Speaker 1: All right, So I'll recap sort of where we stand

1139
00:55:25,960 --> 00:55:29,680
Speaker 1: at the end. But Simon's biggest bets, pull.

1140
00:55:29,600 --> 00:55:31,479
Speaker 2: Up close pints and be a man.

1141
00:55:32,600 --> 00:55:37,000
Speaker 3: Chiefs definitely haven't invested in Houston, taking a pretty big

1142
00:55:37,040 --> 00:55:40,239
Speaker 3: position on them as well, and shock only Lines and

1143
00:55:40,320 --> 00:55:43,840
Speaker 3: Chargers like we're about to do the money line, Robin,

1144
00:55:44,040 --> 00:55:47,439
Speaker 3: I have a heavy amount of money invested in those

1145
00:55:47,440 --> 00:55:48,640
Speaker 3: two money lines together.

1146
00:55:49,880 --> 00:55:51,680
Speaker 1: Well, look, I'm glad to see it because those are

1147
00:55:51,719 --> 00:55:55,000
Speaker 1: the four games that I have pinpointed other than the

1148
00:55:55,080 --> 00:55:59,640
Speaker 1: Jags from the beginning. So I mean, I guess I

1149
00:56:00,120 --> 00:56:02,439
Speaker 1: have the Jags. I did not pinpoint the Chargers until

1150
00:56:02,480 --> 00:56:03,799
Speaker 1: yesterday when it got date and a half.

1151
00:56:03,840 --> 00:56:05,600
Speaker 3: But yeah, I would say those four were giving out.

1152
00:56:05,600 --> 00:56:08,279
Speaker 3: Houston is my least confident one, just because I still have.

1153
00:56:09,960 --> 00:56:15,040
Speaker 1: Huh. I I'm surprised because I actually feel almost more

1154
00:56:15,040 --> 00:56:16,440
Speaker 1: confident about that than I do.

1155
00:56:16,480 --> 00:56:20,920
Speaker 2: The Chargers, I don't. I love those hardball stats got

1156
00:56:20,920 --> 00:56:21,560
Speaker 2: me fired up.

1157
00:56:21,600 --> 00:56:24,359
Speaker 3: He just he fift him and being fifteen to four

1158
00:56:24,360 --> 00:56:26,880
Speaker 3: on East coast trips on extended rest is like insane.

1159
00:56:27,440 --> 00:56:29,720
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about some of these the money

1160
00:56:29,719 --> 00:56:38,799
Speaker 1: line favorite parlay. Why not Kansas City, Houston, Lions, Chargers

1161
00:56:39,560 --> 00:56:44,799
Speaker 1: and one more Rams Packers.

1162
00:56:45,160 --> 00:56:47,400
Speaker 2: No, because they're big. Let's let's uh, let's get the

1163
00:56:47,480 --> 00:56:53,200
Speaker 2: juice done a little bit. Let's throw in I mean

1164
00:56:53,200 --> 00:56:58,919
Speaker 2: you like you like Jacksonville Chad I minus one fifty.

1165
00:56:58,920 --> 00:57:00,239
Speaker 1: Great, put it out that.

1166
00:57:00,680 --> 00:57:01,520
Speaker 2: Or we could throw.

1167
00:57:01,400 --> 00:57:05,279
Speaker 3: In Dallas minus one forty five. I don't I like that.

1168
00:57:06,480 --> 00:57:09,359
Speaker 3: I think I like Dallas more than I like Fuck

1169
00:57:09,400 --> 00:57:10,839
Speaker 3: I hate them both kind of Actually, I don't think

1170
00:57:10,840 --> 00:57:13,960
Speaker 3: about it. Those are two good options, because again, you're

1171
00:57:14,000 --> 00:57:16,520
Speaker 3: not with me on the Colts, which I think they're Yeah,

1172
00:57:16,520 --> 00:57:18,680
Speaker 3: they're minus one seventy so the odds aren't as good either.

1173
00:57:19,600 --> 00:57:24,400
Speaker 1: Let's go with Jacksonville, Okay, money line round robin favorites

1174
00:57:25,000 --> 00:57:31,880
Speaker 1: Kansas City, Houston, Chargers, Detroit, Jacksonville, the Dogs.

1175
00:57:34,600 --> 00:57:36,120
Speaker 2: My dog blocks.

1176
00:57:36,000 --> 00:57:38,800
Speaker 1: Your dog, Your dog blocks.

1177
00:57:38,280 --> 00:57:44,640
Speaker 3: Mon dog, Steelers, Steelers, put your your Lanta Falcons in there.

1178
00:57:45,000 --> 00:57:45,600
Speaker 1: Falcons.

1179
00:57:46,040 --> 00:57:49,280
Speaker 3: It's kind of force them in just just because I

1180
00:57:49,360 --> 00:57:51,040
Speaker 3: just there's not a lot of dogs I like this week.

1181
00:57:51,080 --> 00:57:57,720
Speaker 2: But Josh Allen plus one fifteen commanders, that would be you.

1182
00:57:58,320 --> 00:58:01,280
Speaker 2: They're plus one forty, so that is good value.

1183
00:58:01,560 --> 00:58:06,760
Speaker 1: Prime time game. Jayden Daniels off a blowout. I know it,

1184
00:58:07,320 --> 00:58:09,640
Speaker 1: like I know all the things you're saying. But it's

1185
00:58:09,680 --> 00:58:11,920
Speaker 1: also a great spot historically. It's just going to be

1186
00:58:11,960 --> 00:58:12,520
Speaker 1: a good spot.

1187
00:58:13,640 --> 00:58:15,880
Speaker 3: It is, but it's again, it's a bumney quarterback out

1188
00:58:15,960 --> 00:58:18,280
Speaker 3: rhythm without a number one receiver, it's not that great.

1189
00:58:18,840 --> 00:58:20,120
Speaker 2: We're just playing the numbers.

1190
00:58:19,880 --> 00:58:22,640
Speaker 1: And play sometimes that's what you do.

1191
00:58:23,520 --> 00:58:25,720
Speaker 3: It is, but it's that's what I'm trying to bring

1192
00:58:25,760 --> 00:58:27,400
Speaker 3: some logic to it because I just can't take all

1193
00:58:27,440 --> 00:58:29,560
Speaker 3: these home dogs. It's just not like it used to be.

1194
00:58:29,560 --> 00:58:31,200
Speaker 3: They're not all going to be hitting like this. But

1195
00:58:31,600 --> 00:58:32,240
Speaker 3: what do we have for.

1196
00:58:32,800 --> 00:58:36,840
Speaker 1: We have three Pittsburgh Atlanta Buffalo.

1197
00:58:40,280 --> 00:58:45,600
Speaker 2: Giants, Giants plus one twenty five. I'll do it. And

1198
00:58:45,640 --> 00:58:47,320
Speaker 2: then what do you think about since you plus one

1199
00:58:47,320 --> 00:58:50,200
Speaker 2: thirty five? Yeah, because I'm not going to bed till Sunday.

1200
00:58:50,200 --> 00:58:52,200
Speaker 2: A way flat goes out. We can switch it out

1201
00:58:52,280 --> 00:58:55,720
Speaker 2: and put in, put in your commanders.

1202
00:58:56,040 --> 00:58:57,520
Speaker 1: I mean you could also do Denver.

1203
00:58:59,200 --> 00:59:03,720
Speaker 2: Denver. Yeah, they are technically plus one ten. That's fair.

1204
00:59:04,680 --> 00:59:13,400
Speaker 1: Alright, let's do Denver. All right. So the underdog parlay Pittsburgh, Atlantic, Atlanta,

1205
00:59:13,480 --> 00:59:21,400
Speaker 1: Buffalo Giants, Denver. The favorites parlay, Kansas City, Houston, Chargers, Detroit, Jacksonville.

1206
00:59:22,400 --> 00:59:23,200
Speaker 2: First Survivor.

1207
00:59:23,520 --> 00:59:25,840
Speaker 3: I can't believe I'm doing it, but I got to

1208
00:59:25,920 --> 00:59:27,680
Speaker 3: use it on taking chargers.

1209
00:59:28,320 --> 00:59:33,640
Speaker 2: Okay, chargers be hilarious. If I've seen.

1210
00:59:35,120 --> 00:59:38,680
Speaker 1: Year Survivor, I'm so out of it. All right, sharp

1211
00:59:39,040 --> 00:59:42,600
Speaker 1: versus square? Simon, who are you going with?

1212
00:59:43,160 --> 00:59:44,360
Speaker 2: Well? You won last week, didn't you?

1213
00:59:45,200 --> 00:59:49,360
Speaker 1: We both? I did you at Pittsburgh? I had I

1214
00:59:49,480 --> 00:59:54,840
Speaker 1: had the New York Jets. Let's see brass balls. We

1215
00:59:55,080 --> 01:00:00,120
Speaker 1: chose Houston, Chad choice was Detroit, Simon says, was Kansas City?

1216
01:00:00,960 --> 01:00:05,760
Speaker 1: You know what? Jacksonville Jaguars.

1217
01:00:05,800 --> 01:00:08,120
Speaker 2: Thank God, give me the Chargers. I was hoping you

1218
01:00:08,120 --> 01:00:10,760
Speaker 2: wouldn't take the Chargers. I could. Yeah, give me the Chargers.

1219
01:00:11,160 --> 01:00:13,760
Speaker 2: Look at us. A couple of squares, not sharper square

1220
01:00:13,880 --> 01:00:14,439
Speaker 2: square vers.

1221
01:00:14,360 --> 01:00:17,120
Speaker 1: Square, the square versus square? All right, So the games

1222
01:00:17,160 --> 01:00:20,520
Speaker 1: we're pretty locked in on for Sunday Chargers minus eight

1223
01:00:20,520 --> 01:00:27,280
Speaker 1: and a half, Kansas City minus two, the Texans minus

1224
01:00:27,480 --> 01:00:32,400
Speaker 1: one and a half, and Detroit minus eight and a half,

1225
01:00:33,160 --> 01:00:35,520
Speaker 1: and we'll have a decision to make for the final

1226
01:00:35,600 --> 01:00:39,600
Speaker 1: five on Sunday. This has been Sharper Square, part of

1227
01:00:39,600 --> 01:00:43,000
Speaker 1: the Volume podcast Network. We will be back on Sharper

1228
01:00:43,040 --> 01:00:47,840
Speaker 1: Square YouTube Sunday morning. You're gonna get to eat drop

1229
01:00:47,880 --> 01:00:51,200
Speaker 1: on an intimate conversation between me and Simon, and we

1230
01:00:51,240 --> 01:00:54,440
Speaker 1: are definitely going to panic and make human decisions that

1231
01:00:54,480 --> 01:00:56,360
Speaker 1: we regret the rest of the day. We'll be back

1232
01:00:56,360 --> 01:00:59,480
Speaker 1: on Shrepper Square YouTube Sunday night, seven point thirty pm Eastern.

1233
01:00:59,480 --> 01:01:02,320
Speaker 1: To recap all that misery, watch or listen on YouTube

1234
01:01:02,320 --> 01:01:04,479
Speaker 1: a Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel.

1235
01:01:04,560 --> 01:01:07,480
Speaker 1: Also download some Spotify Apple Pods wherever you get your pods,

1236
01:01:07,880 --> 01:01:10,000
Speaker 1: rate review, subscribe. We with five stars say what if

1237
01:01:10,040 --> 01:01:12,120
Speaker 1: you want feedback is a gift. Until next time, I

1238
01:01:12,240 --> 01:01:12,640
Speaker 1: Love you.