Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm
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Speaker 1: Search Bloomberg Global News. You're listening to Bloomberg Business We've
Speaker 1: We've just got about eleven minutes, a little bit under
Speaker 1: eleven mids left in today's trading session. We've bounced around,
Speaker 1: but we definitely have Charlie mentioned him. We firmed up
Speaker 1: when it comes to the equity trade post that fed
Speaker 1: announcement and j Pal presser yields. They went up a
Speaker 1: little bit, they're back down and they're just down as
Speaker 1: smidge as we look along the yel curve. Let's get
Speaker 1: right into all that and more with Cole Smed, President
Speaker 1: and Portfolio manager at Smead Capital Management. He joins us
Speaker 1: now on the phone from Phoenix, Arizona, Cole your reaction
Speaker 1: to what we heard from the f O m C
Speaker 1: and Fedhare Palace press conference just now? I J. Powell
Speaker 1: reminds me of Kevin Bacon and Animal House. While he's
Speaker 1: yelling at everyone, all is well, all as well as
Speaker 1: chaos has ensuing on main Street, and eventually Kevin Bacon
Speaker 1: they show later in the scene that he's completely trampled,
Speaker 1: still saying all as well. And I think, Um, that's
Speaker 1: really the the you're saying. You don't think, I don't know.
Speaker 1: You go ask businesses, is all well, they would tell you, no,
Speaker 1: prices are up. Um, businesses are notably concerned about inflation
Speaker 1: in the set, isn't. It's really strange. And there's people
Speaker 1: that are taking risk with their personal income and their
Speaker 1: their personal capital. Um think that's a massive risk, and
Speaker 1: the people that aren't taking risk with their personal capital don't. Well,
Speaker 1: that's quite a dichotomy. One thing that really stuck out
Speaker 1: to me was was what Powell actually thinks transitory means
Speaker 1: and the definition of transitory. He's said that it doesn't
Speaker 1: it means not, it means it's something that doesn't leave
Speaker 1: a permanent mark, so not necessarily the prices will go
Speaker 1: back down, which is what I think a lot of
Speaker 1: people perhaps had in mind lumber. There's been a lot
Speaker 1: of commodities that have gotten has made that point that
Speaker 1: perhaps lumber notwithstanding, but you know, corect lumber, lumber has
Speaker 1: gone down. However, we're at the highest sustained falloff in
Speaker 1: lumber ever. I mean, it's just we're off the charts
Speaker 1: in terms of where we are in lumber prices relative
Speaker 1: to the last thirty years. So, um, you know, we
Speaker 1: we this was the high back in eight teen on
Speaker 1: lumber prices, roughly speaking, Um, this was the high and
Speaker 1: that was the highest point we've ever seen really since
Speaker 1: ninety four. Inflation adjusted nine to four is bigger. But
Speaker 1: I just say that because you know, yes, lumber fall
Speaker 1: has fallen off. We're just at the highest heights we've
Speaker 1: ever been on that commodity. So I think housing, by
Speaker 1: the way, is the poster child of inflation. Um, go
Speaker 1: back to deflation eight oh nine. What was the lead story?
Speaker 1: It was, how using deflation that's why we had deflation
Speaker 1: the US economy. Go back to the nineteen seventies new
Speaker 1: home builds, existing homebuilds. They did, they had more pricing
Speaker 1: power than cp I did. No words. My theory is
Speaker 1: that housing actually tells us more about the future than
Speaker 1: cp I does. And by the way, just so everyone's
Speaker 1: on the same page, thirty of CPI is housing related
Speaker 1: and over that is tied to owner ownership of houses.
Speaker 1: And I think that's really where the CPI data is wrong.
Speaker 1: It's understating the pricing increases of housing because the SET
Speaker 1: is using or the the BLS is using surveys, they're
Speaker 1: not using transaction based data. We could go on and
Speaker 1: on about this spot whether or not inflation is real,
Speaker 1: and I guess time will tell whether or not it
Speaker 1: is transitory if we start to see I don't know.
Speaker 1: I feel like Cole, it's safe to say that we
Speaker 1: don't have a true transparent picture quite yet. Because we
Speaker 1: have unprecedented stimulus thanks to the FED, thanks to the
Speaker 1: US government, thanks to a lot of things. Right now,
Speaker 1: we don't have people all completely back in the workforce.
Speaker 1: We heard j p Will talk about that. I feel
Speaker 1: like it's very hard to really understand what's going on
Speaker 1: in the economy and the inflationary story until things start
Speaker 1: to settle down without all these uh kind of extra
Speaker 1: factors that are distorting some of the data points. And
Speaker 1: don't just I mean, don't you know, we're not going
Speaker 1: to know how bad or good things are until the future.
Speaker 1: That's a great part, it's all unknowable. UM. The beautiful
Speaker 1: part to your guys life in the media realms as
Speaker 1: well as ours in the professional realm is UM. Security
Speaker 1: prices are a great, great way to arbitrate an unknown future.
Speaker 1: And so we just look at and and look at
Speaker 1: the opportunities we get in more asset intensive businesses like UM,
Speaker 1: home building, like the energy business, like mall rates where
Speaker 1: we think the benefits of the unknown future are greatly
Speaker 1: underpriced UM. And that's that's you know, I could be
Speaker 1: completely wrong on interest rates and we can make great
Speaker 1: money and common stocks UM at a time that we
Speaker 1: just don't think that's going to be brought the true
Speaker 1: for most investors. So it's at to your point, Carol,
Speaker 1: this is such a fun industry in business to be
Speaker 1: in because the future is always unknown, right, and very entertaining.
Speaker 1: I just think of take, you know, the last twenty
Speaker 1: years or some some of the different cycles we've seen
Speaker 1: in terms of booms and busts, right where something can
Speaker 1: go up to extraordinary levels and then of course either
Speaker 1: because of froth and too much money chasing too few assets.
Speaker 1: Of course, the you know, the bubble bursts, and we've
Speaker 1: seen that. I guess I just don't know yet, having
Speaker 1: seen lots of market cycles like you guys have, I'm
Speaker 1: just waiting to see how this this one pans out.
Speaker 1: I'm not quite sure yet. Well, And I think one
Speaker 1: of the things that I don't think that you're you're
Speaker 1: not hearing the said talk about this at all because
Speaker 1: it's it's just it's hard to model. But what are
Speaker 1: demographics doing in our economy? For example, there have been
Speaker 1: some big changes in last year, just without talking prices.
Speaker 1: You've had a group of millennials wake up and decide
Speaker 1: that houses are actually pretty awesome in the suburbs and
Speaker 1: use cars are pretty awesome as well, right after years
Speaker 1: of people saying huge leennials are never going to buy homes,
Speaker 1: they're never going to buy cars, and guess what I mean,
Speaker 1: they do? They did. And by the way, it just
Speaker 1: happens to be the biggest demographic going through the consumption
Speaker 1: years of the U s economy since the late sixties
Speaker 1: and early seventies. It kind of sounds odd, right, but
Speaker 1: and that was the opposite of peril to your point.
Speaker 1: I mean, oh, five, we're building houses for no one.
Speaker 1: We had less gen xers, and what we're gonna do
Speaker 1: is build houses for no one that was there. Um,
Speaker 1: that was the opposite. That was the dull drums of demographics,
Speaker 1: and therefore the economy was greatly affected by it. All right,
Speaker 1: So where are you committing money? Your value? Guy? You're
Speaker 1: gonna like the value like is are you finding opportunities?
Speaker 1: Finally we are? And and uh, that's just it's probably
Speaker 1: the most contentious thing that that we've been buying his energy,
Speaker 1: and we've been buying it the last year we went
Speaker 1: from we went from very few names. We continue to
Speaker 1: add more. We have a fourth name that we haven't
Speaker 1: disclosed yet in our thirteen f but that'll come up soon. Um.
Speaker 1: So the three that that you can see in our
Speaker 1: whole things would be Conico, Philips, Chevron, and Continental Resources.
Speaker 1: The oil business is being left for dead. It's incredible
Speaker 1: economics on the CPI front. Everyone's looking through pricing pressures
Speaker 1: in it. Why shouldn't it be left because the industry
Speaker 1: is acting really rational. They're returning capital, they're not wasting it.
Speaker 1: That's so different. It's like oil people are not being
Speaker 1: oil people. But look at what's happening long term. In
Speaker 1: the auto industry, for example, Look what's happening. Every company
Speaker 1: is committing to net zero right now by you know,
Speaker 1: decades away. But you know you had Mercedes Bends last week.
Speaker 1: Tens of billions of dollars committed this decade to electrification. Um,
Speaker 1: how come you're still optimistic on oil? Where is the energy? Uh?
Speaker 1: Where is the energy needs going to be filled? And
Speaker 1: I say that because we don't do nuclear in the
Speaker 1: United States. Are really in the developed world, Um, we
Speaker 1: don't do hydro power. We're getting rid of marginal hydropower, which,
Speaker 1: by the way, those two are the most green friendly
Speaker 1: things that are present and saw already. Um, from there
Speaker 1: you go to much higher cost projects. So what we
Speaker 1: do know is we are going to higher cost energy forms. Surely,
Speaker 1: the question is how high? And if if green alternatives
Speaker 1: are adopted sooner, what it does It makes oil and
Speaker 1: gas more expensive because the market is effectively moving prices
Speaker 1: higher for energy needs. And that's just pure energy then
Speaker 1: from there you could arbitrate how much of that's combustion,
Speaker 1: how much of that's electricity. But the policies that are
Speaker 1: being laid out is limiting supply of new investment for energy,
Speaker 1: and that is taking prices higher. No one thought we'd
Speaker 1: be at seventy plus w T I R. Brandt right now.
Speaker 1: And guess what we think we're going to hundred? Okay, alright,
Speaker 1: So give us a name, Give us a name that
Speaker 1: you that you'd be putting money to. Continental Resources with
Speaker 1: the stewardship of Harold Ham is one of the most
Speaker 1: incredible risk word relationships we've ever seen. Um, we get
Speaker 1: like four barrels of oil per share and you know what, Uh,
Speaker 1: we love that business and and we're one of the
Speaker 1: large shareholders there and we couldn't be more pleased by
Speaker 1: the stewardship. Like I said earlier, what they're doing with
Speaker 1: their projects, what they're doing to invest um. There there
Speaker 1: is some people that are doing good things and there
Speaker 1: are some people that are stuck in a hole from
Speaker 1: the problems the last few years. There will be consolidation.
Speaker 1: But Continental Resources in an ideal position right now. Uh.
Speaker 1: And is there just quickly five seconds ten seconds. A
Speaker 1: housing name that you like, uh d r Horden. I
Speaker 1: mean watching people worry about what's going on in Texas
Speaker 1: with their business. We're just we're just absolutely excited about
Speaker 1: the future in their business. But also the housing business.
Speaker 1: Land is a game. Land is a game. Who's got land?
Speaker 1: Who can build houses? Good? Check, close, speed, present protfolio Maager,
Speaker 1: It's me Capital Management. They're fun beating just about all
Speaker 1: of its peers year to date as well as over
Speaker 1: the past five years. This is Bloomberg Business Week with
Speaker 1: Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic from Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Radio Well a slew of earnings crossing the Bloomberg have
Speaker 1: nothing going on. We have Facebook, we have four we
Speaker 1: have Qualcom, we have LAMB Research. But what we want
Speaker 1: to focus on now is Facebook. John Orlickman is anchor
Speaker 1: at BNN Bloomberg's The Open, also a correspondent for CTV
Speaker 1: National News. He joins us now on the phone from Toronto.
Speaker 1: Shares in the after hours, John Elickman down more than
Speaker 1: while look close to four percent, they were down as
Speaker 1: low as five percent. What has investors concerned is the
Speaker 1: outlook quote in the third and fourth quarters of one,
Speaker 1: we expect year over year total revenue growth rates to
Speaker 1: decelerate significantly on a sequential basis, as we lacked periods
Speaker 1: of increasingly strong growth. Is that what you think is
Speaker 1: investors concerned right now? Yeah? Tim, I think you hit
Speaker 1: the nail on the head there, because as we came
Speaker 1: into earning season, it felt like we were expecting big
Speaker 1: numbers and we'll talk about just how big they were
Speaker 1: for Facebook during the second quarter. But immediately the company
Speaker 1: comes out and discloses a couple of things. I mean,
Speaker 1: first of all, that they have seen a real surge
Speaker 1: in the business and the possibility that they can't necessarily
Speaker 1: have that same kind of growth as you go into
Speaker 1: the third and fourth quarter, coupled with them really making
Speaker 1: a point of highlighting changes in how the advertising world
Speaker 1: online is working. On Facebook, quite frankly, has been at
Speaker 1: the center of the storm of a push by governments
Speaker 1: and regulators around the world to get away from those
Speaker 1: pefky trackers that have tracked you and me around the
Speaker 1: internet for years, um ad targeting tools that really have
Speaker 1: benefited the Facebook business. So they were up front about that.
Speaker 1: Investors immediately see that, and it takes their attention. I
Speaker 1: think Carol and Tim away from from the headline number,
Speaker 1: which I think is still mind blowing. I know, Carroll,
Speaker 1: I'm found in like this broken record as they look
Speaker 1: at these numbers. Right, I always think maybe we just
Speaker 1: expect a little too much. I mean a little perspective,
Speaker 1: and I understand, but at some point, I mean, it's
Speaker 1: a huge company and then a lot of money. Well,
Speaker 1: this is the challenge. Now. We could have a conversation
Speaker 1: around the business of Facebook, some of the ethical lines
Speaker 1: here that I think a lot of governments and regulators
Speaker 1: want to talk about. But for investors, the problem with
Speaker 1: all of that is if you really honed in on that,
Speaker 1: the reality is you would have left money on the table.
Speaker 1: I mean, we're now talking about revenue in this quarter
Speaker 1: over the last decade growing more than three thousand percent.
Speaker 1: And you know, I was thinking, like I love my
Speaker 1: historical bates and history, and it was it was literally
Speaker 1: around this time two years ago that we were spinning
Speaker 1: in the Cambridge Analytica scandal. To so many people thought
Speaker 1: that would be the end of Facebook, right, John, You're
Speaker 1: so right to him, you know, we were really we
Speaker 1: started having a big conversation around the bust up, the
Speaker 1: break up, all the antitrust concerns. They came out with
Speaker 1: quarterly results. UM I want to say there was a
Speaker 1: similar sort of reaction to what was in front of
Speaker 1: us with the earnings, and stock ended up losing of
Speaker 1: its value. And if you had sold and just walked away,
Speaker 1: you would have missed ultimately more than doubling in the shares.
Speaker 1: I mean, we came in and this is the problem
Speaker 1: with earning season so far this cycle, which is a
Speaker 1: lot of these stocks have been up up in a way,
Speaker 1: they've been trading around all time highs. Facebook is in
Speaker 1: that boat. So even though they're down in the in
Speaker 1: the aftermarket for these legitimate reasons, let's not forget that
Speaker 1: this stock had been rocking and rolling in recent trading sessions,
Speaker 1: right down three and a quarter percent. Now it's up
Speaker 1: thirty six percent. That was at the end of the
Speaker 1: close today a year to date. UM, I do want
Speaker 1: to mention just some earnings crossing PayPal down about four
Speaker 1: point one percent here in the after hours. Uh, and
Speaker 1: they're seeing third quarter revenue six point one five to
Speaker 1: six and a quarter billion dollars. The estimate out there
Speaker 1: is above that at about six point four five billion. Uh,
Speaker 1: the company saying second quarter net revenue was six and
Speaker 1: a quarter that was a little light. The estimate was
Speaker 1: six point to seven billion a just ADPs at buck fifteen.
Speaker 1: That's three cents better than what Wall Street was forecasting.
Speaker 1: It did reaffirm its full year revenue outlook and total
Speaker 1: payment volume for the second quarter three ten point nine
Speaker 1: nine billion. That's above the estimate of two D ninety
Speaker 1: seven point zero eight billion. So I just wanted to
Speaker 1: put that out there and again that stock seeing some
Speaker 1: selling now down about four point seven percent the after hours. Hey, John,
Speaker 1: I wanted to get your thoughts on the metaverse. This
Speaker 1: is something that we know Mark Zuckerberg's obsessed. I'm obsessed.
Speaker 1: I think he's a member, a secret member of the metaverse,
Speaker 1: because he won't exactly tell me what it's all about.
Speaker 1: But I think you know, but if we think about
Speaker 1: what Facebook has acquired in the past, right, it's acquired Instagram,
Speaker 1: it's acquired WhatsApp, it's acquired Oculus, and where it really
Speaker 1: hasn't performed is Oculus. And we know that one area
Speaker 1: that Mark Zuckerberg is really interested in is blending these
Speaker 1: digital and physical worlds and there are hundreds of job
Speaker 1: postings right now for metaverse related jobs. Is this the
Speaker 1: growth area for Facebook? If if growth declines or if
Speaker 1: growth slow, as I should say on the family of Apps. Well,
Speaker 1: I think it's a great question, tim, And one thing
Speaker 1: this company has never done is sit around and wait
Speaker 1: for its bread and butter business too slow. And you know,
Speaker 1: I even think back to when the company went public.
Speaker 1: I mean, let's face it, they have not seen the
Speaker 1: kind of growth in the core Facebook platform that they want,
Speaker 1: and by Instagram is like the best thing they ever
Speaker 1: did exactly. And um, you know, I don't want to
Speaker 1: get too far into the weeds for the audience here,
Speaker 1: but this week when Alphabet, the parent company Google, reported
Speaker 1: they're now breaking out the YouTube numbers, because at a
Speaker 1: certain point you kind of have to. I mean, YouTube
Speaker 1: generated seven billion in revenue in the last three months.
Speaker 1: On its own, it would be one of the largest
Speaker 1: companies in tech. Same story for Instagram, it's still um
Speaker 1: under the bed, right, it's part of the overall Spacebook's
Speaker 1: not telling us exactly how much of the business is Instagram,
Speaker 1: but I think uneducated guests will tell you that a
Speaker 1: lot of the advertising growth is coming from the Instagram platform,
Speaker 1: and then we get to what Tim's talking about, which
Speaker 1: is looked at these other avenues. I would make the argument,
Speaker 1: you know, I don't know if anyone listening has family
Speaker 1: or friends that that is UM toying around with VR
Speaker 1: doing anything with oculus. Slowly but surely, I mean, I
Speaker 1: don't think it had the impact that they might have
Speaker 1: thought initially, but slowly but surely more hardware is making
Speaker 1: its way into people's homes more more often than not.
Speaker 1: I mean, we're we're likely moving in that direction, and
Speaker 1: I think Facebook has a certain amount of patients to
Speaker 1: wait to see how that plays out. I think the
Speaker 1: same you know, you guys just talked about PayPal, Like,
Speaker 1: let's not forget that. Um. Facebook is thinking a lot
Speaker 1: about that digital money cryptocurrency world. They've had starts and
Speaker 1: stops there too, but they're not going to sit around
Speaker 1: and they don't have to. They've got lots of resources
Speaker 1: and lots of money. But until we see a lot
Speaker 1: more developing in terms of you know, what Wall Street
Speaker 1: looks at as material parts of the business, they're really
Speaker 1: just going to look at this as a digital advertising jugger.
Speaker 1: And I don't have direct comparisons to what's happening with Google,
Speaker 1: and I have to say, if you look at the
Speaker 1: Wall Street views coming into this year, they were pretty
Speaker 1: favorable on alphabet and and that that paid off in
Speaker 1: a big way. Facebook also has been, you know, gaining
Speaker 1: ground in the stock market. But this might be a
Speaker 1: bit of a moment for pause that the company's straight out,
Speaker 1: coming out and talking about some of the challenges they
Speaker 1: might have short term and coming up with the same
Speaker 1: kind of numbers they saw. Well, I think you're come last.
Speaker 1: You guys are right to you know, you talked about
Speaker 1: earlier about all this tracking and what the impact is
Speaker 1: on all of that. Facebook anticipating increasing ad targeting headwinds,
Speaker 1: saying growth to slow this year, So that's some of
Speaker 1: the reason why we're seeing some selling a Kurt Wagner saying,
Speaker 1: what's also unclear from the releases why the year of
Speaker 1: a year two year growth rate will be down in
Speaker 1: the second half. Is it's just iOS related or something deeper?
Speaker 1: He says, questions I will be hoping that will be
Speaker 1: answered on the call, John, what would you be asking
Speaker 1: on the call? What do you want to know? Well,
Speaker 1: I think if they could answer some of those questions,
Speaker 1: it would be super helpful. UM. I still would really
Speaker 1: like if they could um share more details on Instagram.
Speaker 1: It would really be helpful for us to get a
Speaker 1: sense on how that platform is doing. UM. We were
Speaker 1: kind of at a a point now where we've got
Speaker 1: a healthy number of publicly traded social media stocks between
Speaker 1: Facebook and Twitter, Pinterest, a Snapchat's parent company, and a
Speaker 1: lot of those companies have seen really strong digital ad growth.
Speaker 1: We saw that with Twitter, we saw it with Snapchat,
Speaker 1: and the biggest download um player on the planet for
Speaker 1: basically a year plus has been Byte Dance owned TikTok.
Speaker 1: And you know, at some point we'll probably talk more
Speaker 1: about their move towards public market. Undoubtedly that is a
Speaker 1: threat to Facebook, and I'm really curious to watch that
Speaker 1: head on battle between call it Instagram and TikTok. They
Speaker 1: likely won't say too much about that, but I think
Speaker 1: anything they say about those factors that they are watching
Speaker 1: as possible headwinds is always just helpful for whether you're
Speaker 1: thinking about where the stock is going or even where
Speaker 1: the business is going. Yeah, if you think Instagram is
Speaker 1: a time stuck, you haven't tried to TikTok. That algorithm.
Speaker 1: That algorithm is unbelievable. I call that a rabbit hole.
Speaker 1: You call nicely, it's it's you gotta h's something. Hey, John,
Speaker 1: I want to go back to something that you were
Speaker 1: talking about a little earlier, the idea of the tracking
Speaker 1: and the ad tracking and what Apple did in its
Speaker 1: latest version of its mobile operating system, the latest version
Speaker 1: of iOS. Is that an issue that investors should be
Speaker 1: more worried about. Is Facebook warning enough about the implications
Speaker 1: of not being able to track users across different apps? Well,
Speaker 1: I think they'll have to focus on their messaging because
Speaker 1: to your point about Apple, Apple has seen an opportunity
Speaker 1: in the marketplace to market that very fact um, and
Speaker 1: you know that's that's a pretty worthy adversary. So I
Speaker 1: would I would say if you were Facebook, you you
Speaker 1: want to be ready on the messaging around that. Um.
Speaker 1: We have now gotten used to Mark zucker We're being
Speaker 1: on Capitol Hill and facing a lot of questions around this.
Speaker 1: I think in terms of you know what you talked
Speaker 1: about earlier, Tim, when we were wondering about literally the
Speaker 1: future of the business, whether Facebook would be busted up,
Speaker 1: it just does not seem like there are enough teeth
Speaker 1: for that to happen right now, So you can make
Speaker 1: the argument that they have done their job there. But
Speaker 1: at the end of the day, the end consumer is important.
Speaker 1: How they feel about the platform is very important too. Um.
Speaker 1: But you know it's as soon as we try to
Speaker 1: start talking about privacy and um, you know a lot
Speaker 1: of complicated issues. You know, a lot of people would
Speaker 1: fire right back at Apple as a company. Look at
Speaker 1: what's been happening in China these last weeks, and how
Speaker 1: how tied Apples. I was just gonna say, I bet
Speaker 1: Facebook clad they're not in China. Just going to put
Speaker 1: that out there, Um, General Lokman, thank you as always,
Speaker 1: He's anchor being and Bloomberg's the open Christ Bondent for
Speaker 1: CTV National News. Facebook shares down three point five per cent,
Speaker 1: paypals down about seven point seven percent, forties up about
Speaker 1: two point four lots of ERNs, lots of earnings. Also
Speaker 1: more to come tomorrow, which I'm forgot about Amazon. We
Speaker 1: ain't done yet. Have a good night, Tim. Thanks for
Speaker 1: listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud,
Speaker 1: or Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to
Speaker 1: our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,
Speaker 1: or watch us on YouTube. Search to Bloomberg Global News