WEBVTT - The Sentry: Odds, Picks, Predictions & New Year's Resolutions (Ep. 419) 0:00:01.000 --> 0:00:05.880 Hello everyone, and welcome to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast. 0:00:06.000 --> 0:00:10.160 I'm Pat Fitzmorris. I'm joined by mister bau mcbrair and 0:00:10.640 --> 0:00:12.560 this is a brand new show where we are going 0:00:12.600 --> 0:00:17.840 to be going through each tournament from a betting perspective 0:00:17.880 --> 0:00:21.720 throughout the PGA Tour season in twenty twenty four, and 0:00:21.760 --> 0:00:25.119 that season kicks off this week with the Century the 0:00:25.200 --> 0:00:28.720 season opening tournaments. Well, I guess there's a soft opening 0:00:28.760 --> 0:00:30.960 to the season in the fall, but we know this 0:00:31.040 --> 0:00:35.640 is the real start of the PGA Tour season. So yeah, 0:00:35.680 --> 0:00:38.519 we're going to be bringing you the betting perspective, our 0:00:38.640 --> 0:00:41.120 takes who we like, and we're also going to throw 0:00:41.120 --> 0:00:42.960 in a one and done pick at the end of 0:00:42.960 --> 0:00:44.800 each show for those of you who are in one 0:00:44.840 --> 0:00:47.559 and done pools. So bo, it's always good to see you, 0:00:47.600 --> 0:00:50.800 my friend. Happy New Year to you and your family. 0:00:51.000 --> 0:00:54.920 Juveny golf related resolutions for New Years. 0:00:55.960 --> 0:00:59.160 I would love to play for golf, Pat. 0:01:01.360 --> 0:01:03.800 Just play more Golf's that's the gist of it. 0:01:04.440 --> 0:01:06.960 Yeah, it's I don't think I think it's been at 0:01:07.000 --> 0:01:09.120 least six months since I even picked up a stick, 0:01:09.240 --> 0:01:10.920 So I got any better than that? 0:01:11.680 --> 0:01:15.920 Yeah, definitely mine is a volume of golf has not 0:01:16.040 --> 0:01:17.720 been that big a problem. I live right next to 0:01:17.760 --> 0:01:20.600 a golf course and I'm out there a lot, but 0:01:20.800 --> 0:01:25.280 I do need to approve the game around the green, 0:01:25.520 --> 0:01:29.600 the chipping, the short pitches, the bunker play. It just 0:01:29.760 --> 0:01:33.360 has been kind of atrocious. Well it's actually gone from 0:01:33.400 --> 0:01:35.160 like I was the worst chipper in the world to 0:01:35.240 --> 0:01:38.080 now I'm just merely bad. But I could take it 0:01:38.160 --> 0:01:40.959 up yet another notch. I'm also in this one and 0:01:41.080 --> 0:01:44.039 done pool, like the most elaborate one and done pool. 0:01:44.840 --> 0:01:47.160 It's just me and a friend head to head, except 0:01:47.280 --> 0:01:50.360 we have to pick two golfers every week and try 0:01:50.400 --> 0:01:53.520 to saddle the other guy with the worst golfer in 0:01:53.560 --> 0:01:56.600 the field and add that to his stroke score for 0:01:56.640 --> 0:01:58.560 each thing. But it's like we do it match play, 0:01:58.680 --> 0:02:01.680 and he's beat me three straight years. So it is 0:02:01.720 --> 0:02:06.560 a resolution to finally beat him, Frenzy. If you want 0:02:06.600 --> 0:02:10.079 a chance to win a free one year premium Betting 0:02:10.160 --> 0:02:13.359 Pros subscription, you need to subscribe to the Betting Pros 0:02:13.720 --> 0:02:17.400 YouTube channel right now, comment below on this video and 0:02:17.440 --> 0:02:20.079 that's it. We will be announcing a winner right here 0:02:20.120 --> 0:02:22.200 on the channel, so make sure to turn on those 0:02:22.240 --> 0:02:25.680 notifications so you can be alerted when new episodes are 0:02:25.800 --> 0:02:29.079 up and to claim your prize. All right, let's get 0:02:29.120 --> 0:02:32.760 to it bo. The PGA season kicking off this week 0:02:32.840 --> 0:02:36.600 with the Century formerly known as the Century Tournament Tournament 0:02:36.639 --> 0:02:40.520 of Champions. As always, this event will be played at 0:02:40.560 --> 0:02:44.520 the Plantation Course at Kapalua, located on the island of 0:02:44.560 --> 0:02:48.480 Maui in Hawaii. The format has changed. It used to 0:02:48.480 --> 0:02:53.239 be that only the players who had won a tournament 0:02:53.240 --> 0:02:56.640 in the previous calendar year were the only ones who 0:02:56.639 --> 0:03:00.000 could get in. Now it's winners in the previous calendar 0:03:00.200 --> 0:03:03.680 year plus anyone who finished inside the top fifty in 0:03:03.720 --> 0:03:08.480 the FedEx Cup standings from their previous year. So, yeah, 0:03:08.520 --> 0:03:11.359 this is the latest instance where the PGA Tour is 0:03:11.360 --> 0:03:14.160 trying to get us to care about the FedEx Cup standings. 0:03:14.160 --> 0:03:16.480 We really don't. I don't know if that's ever going 0:03:16.560 --> 0:03:21.600 to change, but yeah, so that that does affect qualifying 0:03:21.600 --> 0:03:23.640 for this They're going to be fifty nine players in 0:03:23.680 --> 0:03:28.520 this week's field, and as always, there's no cut in 0:03:28.560 --> 0:03:31.040 this event, so everyone is going to play four rounds 0:03:31.040 --> 0:03:35.280 at Kapalua. As for the venue, the Plantation Course, like 0:03:35.360 --> 0:03:40.240 nothing else on tour, massive fairways, huge expanse of greens. 0:03:40.880 --> 0:03:43.560 I believe this is the only par seventy three course 0:03:44.160 --> 0:03:48.480 on tour and at just a smidge under seventy six 0:03:48.600 --> 0:03:51.440 hundred yards. It's a long course, but a lot of 0:03:51.440 --> 0:03:56.120 the longest holes played downhill, including the par five eighteenth, 0:03:56.160 --> 0:03:59.640 which is a joy to watch, one of my favorite 0:03:59.680 --> 0:04:03.120 holes tour. No danger to the right of hall and 0:04:03.240 --> 0:04:06.840 out of bounds to the left. So love watching guys 0:04:06.920 --> 0:04:10.520 hit those big sweeping draws with their second shots with 0:04:10.880 --> 0:04:14.440 you know, long irons or fairway woods, fairway metals. 0:04:14.400 --> 0:04:16.799 In the fifty yards of rollout. 0:04:18.040 --> 0:04:22.680 Yes, yes, absolutely, it's it's just a great haul. Bermuda 0:04:22.720 --> 0:04:25.000 greens at Capeluo tend to be on the slow side, 0:04:25.000 --> 0:04:28.679 so players can be aggressive with Birdie Potts, and it's Hawaii, 0:04:28.720 --> 0:04:31.080 so there's going to be win. The only question is 0:04:31.120 --> 0:04:35.359 whether it's breeze or a gale, And if it's a 0:04:35.360 --> 0:04:38.640 breeze only scores are going to be low the winning 0:04:38.680 --> 0:04:42.480 scores the last three years for this tournament minus twenty seven, 0:04:42.760 --> 0:04:46.279 minus thirty four and minus twenty five. But if the 0:04:46.279 --> 0:04:49.400 players do get strong wins this week, as we saw 0:04:49.520 --> 0:04:52.839 back in twenty twenty scores are going to reflect it. 0:04:53.120 --> 0:04:57.440 Justin Thomas won the winds Swept twenty twenty installation of 0:04:57.480 --> 0:05:01.400 this tournament with the score of minus fourteen. So what 0:05:01.440 --> 0:05:04.960 are some of the keys to playing Kapalua well? Helps 0:05:05.000 --> 0:05:08.240 to be a big hitter because playing the par fives 0:05:08.240 --> 0:05:10.800 and getting your playing the power fives well and getting 0:05:10.839 --> 0:05:15.000 your pro shots close are critical. And because of the 0:05:15.080 --> 0:05:17.919 ultra wide fairways, the bombers have a bigger margin for 0:05:18.160 --> 0:05:21.960 error with their drives, so hitting approach shots close as 0:05:21.960 --> 0:05:26.560 I mentioned, so iron play is big less important. Scrambling 0:05:27.400 --> 0:05:29.719 players are just hitting these massive greens at such a 0:05:29.800 --> 0:05:33.280 high rate that it doesn't really the importance of things 0:05:33.320 --> 0:05:36.040 like chipping in bunker play is kind of muted at 0:05:36.040 --> 0:05:40.320 the century, So bo any thoughts you might have on 0:05:40.360 --> 0:05:43.160 the course and its effect on which players you're going 0:05:43.240 --> 0:05:45.520 to be buying into this week, Well. 0:05:45.520 --> 0:05:49.720 It comes down to the bombers typically don't necessarily make 0:05:49.800 --> 0:05:56.480 this tournament. We've seen despite all these adjustments the PGA 0:05:56.560 --> 0:06:01.080 Tours made to penalize people who are bomb and gouge 0:06:01.120 --> 0:06:04.799 type players, we don't see as many of these players 0:06:04.880 --> 0:06:08.600 qualify for this tournament, let alone dominate this tournament like 0:06:08.680 --> 0:06:10.680 John Ram won two years in a row. He's not 0:06:10.760 --> 0:06:13.039 in this field. He's a long hitter, but he's not 0:06:13.160 --> 0:06:17.480 among the longest hitters. He's just has good distance. He's 0:06:17.640 --> 0:06:21.839 a power player, but his strength is on approach. And 0:06:22.000 --> 0:06:24.760 you have guys like Justin Thomas who won this when 0:06:24.880 --> 0:06:27.640 it was really windy. He's not in this field either. 0:06:28.640 --> 0:06:31.600 It's Cam Smith who won a twenty seven hunder two 0:06:31.960 --> 0:06:35.080 three years ago, not in this field. So the Live 0:06:35.200 --> 0:06:39.400 Tour and its presence has definitely taken effect on this 0:06:39.480 --> 0:06:42.800 tournament because, of course, a lot of the champions from 0:06:42.839 --> 0:06:47.360 previous years are somewhere else. They're playing golf on other 0:06:47.520 --> 0:06:50.880 parts of the world, and for me, it's gonna come 0:06:50.920 --> 0:06:55.839 down to making birdies and avoiding three putt bogies. When 0:06:55.839 --> 0:06:57.760 it comes down to that, you're gonna have lots of 0:06:57.800 --> 0:07:01.200 opportunities to score here, especially if the wins are calm. 0:07:01.920 --> 0:07:04.800 From what I can tell, the forecast is pretty iffy. 0:07:04.880 --> 0:07:08.839 It looks pretty blustery and rainy coming up Thursday through 0:07:08.880 --> 0:07:13.520 Sunday so far is what they're calling for. So I 0:07:13.560 --> 0:07:16.880 think that it's gonna come down to who makes the 0:07:16.880 --> 0:07:21.360 most birdie putts and it's gonna be the equalizer among 0:07:21.480 --> 0:07:23.680 all these guys are gonna be hitting to the same areas. 0:07:24.200 --> 0:07:27.440 A lot of these shorter hitters aren't gonna be dominating 0:07:27.480 --> 0:07:30.800 as much as your top golfers that are long enough. 0:07:31.360 --> 0:07:33.080 It's not gonna take a bomber to win this tournament. 0:07:33.080 --> 0:07:36.080 It's just gonna take being long enough to put yourself 0:07:36.080 --> 0:07:38.960 in position to make birdie putts, make eagle putts. So 0:07:39.000 --> 0:07:41.600 with all these par fives, there's only three par fours 0:07:41.800 --> 0:07:44.200 or sorry, three part three's on this course, which is 0:07:44.200 --> 0:07:48.000 why it's a par seventy three birdie birdie or better 0:07:48.040 --> 0:07:52.680 percentage par four scoring, par five scoring. It's gonna be 0:07:52.960 --> 0:07:57.000 approach and putting For me, it's that's gonna be where 0:07:57.120 --> 0:08:00.240 the money is made in this tournament of fifty I'm 0:08:00.280 --> 0:08:02.600 golfers s, which is the most they've ever had because 0:08:02.640 --> 0:08:04.480 of that new caveat. 0:08:04.440 --> 0:08:08.360 Yeah, normally it's right around thirty. And so even with 0:08:08.440 --> 0:08:11.800 this bigger field, we are not going to see either 0:08:11.840 --> 0:08:14.400 of the last two champions you just alluded to it 0:08:14.440 --> 0:08:18.160 bo the big Spaniard John Rahm joining the Live Tour 0:08:18.280 --> 0:08:22.080 taking the Live money. Two years ago, Cam Smith won 0:08:22.120 --> 0:08:27.400 this tournament also on the live tour, so bo, I 0:08:27.440 --> 0:08:29.480 don't know how much longer we're going to have this 0:08:29.640 --> 0:08:33.840 bifurcation at the highest levels of professional golf, with some 0:08:33.920 --> 0:08:37.160 of the best players in the world taking huge sums 0:08:37.200 --> 0:08:40.560 of money to go and play live on a tour 0:08:40.600 --> 0:08:43.560 that gets a fraction of the attention and the TV 0:08:43.760 --> 0:08:47.920 ratings that the PGA Tour gets. You know, the PGA 0:08:47.960 --> 0:08:51.520 Tour Live tour dynamic reminds me a lot of the 0:08:51.640 --> 0:08:55.160 dynamic between the NFL and the old USFL from the 0:08:55.280 --> 0:08:58.520 nineteen eighties. I'm an old Coger, so I can remember 0:08:58.600 --> 0:09:03.320 the USFL and remember watching some of those games. It 0:09:03.360 --> 0:09:07.040 was an interesting novelty at first, but eventually I stopped 0:09:07.120 --> 0:09:09.480 caring about the USFL when I was a kid and 0:09:09.679 --> 0:09:13.840 only watched the NFL. But the USFL did manage to 0:09:13.920 --> 0:09:16.680 have some of the best football players in the planet 0:09:16.800 --> 0:09:21.040 on the planet in their league at the time, Reggie White, 0:09:21.640 --> 0:09:26.120 Steve Young, Jim Kelly, herschel Walker. The difference is that 0:09:26.160 --> 0:09:29.720 the USFL owners eventually realized the league was never going 0:09:29.720 --> 0:09:34.800 to be a moneymaker for them, But the Saudi money 0:09:34.840 --> 0:09:37.920 that bankrolls the live tour probably isn't going to dry 0:09:38.000 --> 0:09:41.840 up anytime soon. So I don't know bo any any 0:09:41.920 --> 0:09:46.000 salient takes on the situation with LIV and the PGA tour. 0:09:46.480 --> 0:09:50.080 I think long term, the health of professional golf is fine. 0:09:50.960 --> 0:09:55.600 This investment by the Saudi Public Investment Fund. 0:09:56.040 --> 0:09:57.079 It's alarming. 0:09:57.120 --> 0:10:00.559 In the short term, we're seeing a lot of We're 0:10:00.559 --> 0:10:03.640 seeing a lot of concern with the people worried about 0:10:03.679 --> 0:10:06.600 the health of the sport as a professional. But if 0:10:06.640 --> 0:10:09.839 you just follow the dollar signs, both sides of this 0:10:10.040 --> 0:10:14.560 argument care about the game of golf. The Saudi Public 0:10:14.600 --> 0:10:17.480 Investment Fund is an investment fund. They weren't going to 0:10:17.520 --> 0:10:19.600 invest in something they didn't feel like they could get 0:10:19.640 --> 0:10:22.760 a return on in the in the short to the 0:10:22.800 --> 0:10:27.480 semi short to long term. So whether whatever deal happens 0:10:27.520 --> 0:10:29.599 down the road, I think it's just going to be 0:10:29.640 --> 0:10:31.800 a means to an end. Right now, it's all up 0:10:31.840 --> 0:10:34.640 in the air in Limbo. But I think after a 0:10:34.679 --> 0:10:37.280 couple of years of this, we're going to start to 0:10:37.320 --> 0:10:41.920 see more serious talks of merging, kind of like what 0:10:41.960 --> 0:10:44.840 you said with the USFL. I'll go back even farther 0:10:45.040 --> 0:10:48.840 to the AFL, where the AFL and the NFL were 0:10:48.960 --> 0:10:54.800 co existing entities. And they eventually merged, and right now 0:10:54.880 --> 0:10:58.680 the merger looks dicey at best because of antitrust lawsuits 0:10:58.720 --> 0:11:00.720 and all that that have a lot of merit. 0:11:01.200 --> 0:11:01.840 But at the end of the. 0:11:01.880 --> 0:11:05.359 Day, these guys are all free agents. They're all independent contractors. 0:11:05.840 --> 0:11:08.160 They can play where they want to play. They can 0:11:08.200 --> 0:11:11.320 get paid by whoever wants to pay them. When you 0:11:11.400 --> 0:11:13.959 reach the pinnacle of a sport like golf, where the 0:11:14.679 --> 0:11:18.240 level of talent between a PGA Tour professional and your 0:11:18.480 --> 0:11:23.520 club pro is astronomically, it's a chasm of talent. We're 0:11:23.520 --> 0:11:28.040 talking about, just a huge gap to leap to get 0:11:28.040 --> 0:11:31.000 to where Jen ram is. So take your money, man, 0:11:31.120 --> 0:11:34.240 It's short term and in three years when everybody's going 0:11:34.320 --> 0:11:37.400 to joke about, hey, remember when the Live Tour sniped 0:11:37.440 --> 0:11:40.120 all these top golfers for hundreds of millions of dollars, 0:11:40.559 --> 0:11:43.520 And we're back under one umbrella. Whether it's called the 0:11:43.559 --> 0:11:46.400 PGA Tour or whatever, it's still. 0:11:46.200 --> 0:11:48.160 Going to be the same. We're still going to tune 0:11:48.160 --> 0:11:49.560 in to the players we like. 0:11:50.280 --> 0:11:53.080 I still like Jen Ram. I might even tune into 0:11:53.280 --> 0:11:55.720 a little bit more Live because of him being on 0:11:55.720 --> 0:11:59.559 that tour. Cam Smith did that for me so I 0:12:00.400 --> 0:12:02.280 just I just love watching golf. And if you love 0:12:02.320 --> 0:12:05.120 watching golf and you have your favorite golfers out there, 0:12:05.679 --> 0:12:09.200 don't hesitate to support them and whatever they do. It's 0:12:09.240 --> 0:12:11.320 not it's not the end of the world to like 0:12:11.440 --> 0:12:15.160 something that maybe you should have some second thoughts about. 0:12:15.440 --> 0:12:17.559 I don't know, Yeah, no, I know. I mean, I 0:12:17.840 --> 0:12:21.520 guess my biggest hang up with this and not having 0:12:21.520 --> 0:12:23.840 these guys on the PGA Tour, Like I'm gonna miss 0:12:23.840 --> 0:12:26.280 seeing these guys play some of my favorite courses and 0:12:26.320 --> 0:12:30.440 some of my favorite venues, you know, like seeing not 0:12:30.600 --> 0:12:34.320 seeing John Rahm play Riviera. It's gonna hurt my heart 0:12:34.360 --> 0:12:37.360 a little bit this year. So all right, but let's 0:12:37.440 --> 0:12:39.960 let's get down to brass TCKs and talk about player 0:12:40.000 --> 0:12:44.560 odds for the century. Scottie Scheffler opens as the betting 0:12:44.559 --> 0:12:48.560 favorite at plus five point fifty to win on DraftKings. 0:12:49.440 --> 0:12:54.559 Victor Hovland plus eight fifty, Max Homa and Colin Morikawa 0:12:54.720 --> 0:12:59.240 are both plus twelve hundred, and Xander Schoffley, Patrick Cantley, 0:12:59.400 --> 0:13:04.240 and Ludvig Aberg are all at plus fourteen hundred. All right, 0:13:04.559 --> 0:13:07.960 bo I know you're a big Scottie Scheffler guy. He 0:13:08.040 --> 0:13:12.920 is a phenomenal tee degreen player, which would seemingly make 0:13:13.040 --> 0:13:16.160 him a great fit for this course. He finished seventh 0:13:16.200 --> 0:13:19.880 year last year, and the only other start at Kapalua 0:13:19.960 --> 0:13:23.800 he has had resulted in a thirteenth place finish in 0:13:23.840 --> 0:13:27.280 twenty twenty one. Is he worth backing at plus five 0:13:27.280 --> 0:13:28.160 point fifty. 0:13:28.679 --> 0:13:31.440 No, I wouldn't say so, just because of what I 0:13:31.480 --> 0:13:34.080 said earlier. I'm putting a little bit more weight behind 0:13:34.440 --> 0:13:38.160 a birdier better percentage, and that's really where he lagged 0:13:38.240 --> 0:13:42.360 last year. That was what his poor putting brought us. 0:13:42.920 --> 0:13:46.880 Is we're talking about probably the top five ball striking 0:13:46.960 --> 0:13:50.800 season in the history of golf. But when you come 0:13:50.840 --> 0:13:53.240 down to it, he's dead last in this field, er 0:13:53.440 --> 0:13:57.240 bottom five in this field and putting and that cost 0:13:57.280 --> 0:13:58.880 him a lot of birdies that cost him a lot 0:13:58.880 --> 0:14:02.680 of money, a lot of wins last season, and in 0:14:02.720 --> 0:14:06.200 a field this strong, I don't love him. At eleven 0:14:06.240 --> 0:14:10.160 to two, that seems really steep for a guy who 0:14:10.640 --> 0:14:15.040 doesn't measure up well with the Victor Holin's of the world, 0:14:15.080 --> 0:14:19.280 who put much better with similar to not quite as 0:14:19.280 --> 0:14:23.840 good ball striking, but still world class, and even even 0:14:24.280 --> 0:14:27.680 Hovelin's odds give me pause. So at eleven to two 0:14:27.760 --> 0:14:29.680 or plus five fifty, however you want to say it, 0:14:30.000 --> 0:14:33.320 I think Scotty Scheffler is is a no go unless 0:14:33.320 --> 0:14:36.680 you just absolutely believe that he's gonna pull himself back 0:14:36.680 --> 0:14:39.360 together with the flat stick and pay off with a 0:14:39.440 --> 0:14:40.000 large bet. 0:14:40.520 --> 0:14:43.360 Yeah, I'm with you, bo. I mean, supposedly Scotty has 0:14:43.440 --> 0:14:47.800 worked on the putting a lot in the you know, yeah, 0:14:47.920 --> 0:14:49.720 I know, man, like, you don't want to let ball 0:14:49.760 --> 0:14:53.040 striking like that go to waste. And you know, apparently 0:14:53.080 --> 0:14:54.680 in some of the fall events he was putting a 0:14:54.720 --> 0:14:58.320 little bit better. But yeah, he's he's got a ways 0:14:58.360 --> 0:15:02.520 to go if he wants to, you know, become as 0:15:02.560 --> 0:15:05.200 world class a putter as he is a ball striker. 0:15:06.480 --> 0:15:10.200 Or what about Hoveland, bo, Like, he was just phenomenal 0:15:10.280 --> 0:15:15.160 last summer, going completely nuclear in the playoff back in August. 0:15:15.240 --> 0:15:17.920 I mean, I can't remember many instances where I've seen 0:15:18.000 --> 0:15:22.280 someone as hot as Victor Hoveland was like during late 0:15:22.400 --> 0:15:26.640 July and August. But he's played this event three other times, 0:15:26.720 --> 0:15:31.200 finishing thirty, first, thirtieth, and eighteenth. So not many signs 0:15:31.200 --> 0:15:35.240 of life at the Plantation course, any interest in Victor 0:15:35.280 --> 0:15:37.400 Hoveland at plus eight point fifty. 0:15:38.080 --> 0:15:41.800 No, I really I was not impressed with his a 0:15:41.840 --> 0:15:45.560 few appearances after the playoff where you could tell he 0:15:45.640 --> 0:15:49.600 was kind of still languishing in that post victory hangover. 0:15:49.640 --> 0:15:51.920 I mean, if you win fifteen million dollars, I guess 0:15:52.120 --> 0:15:56.000 it's pretty natural for that to hecur I just think 0:15:56.040 --> 0:15:58.200 that he's going to take a little bit longer to 0:15:58.200 --> 0:16:01.880 get into the swing of competitive golf. That's a big 0:16:01.880 --> 0:16:03.920 difference here is a lot of these guys like Rory 0:16:04.000 --> 0:16:06.560 McElroy not being in this field just simply because he 0:16:06.600 --> 0:16:10.760 doesn't he's not quite mentally prepared to start his season. 0:16:11.480 --> 0:16:12.720 And I love Hobland. 0:16:12.800 --> 0:16:16.240 He won me a ton of money last year writing 0:16:16.320 --> 0:16:20.000 him through the playoffs made me so much money betting him. 0:16:20.280 --> 0:16:22.520 It was exciting for everyone involved. 0:16:23.200 --> 0:16:25.200 But this is not the tournament where I'm going to 0:16:25.200 --> 0:16:27.400 be betting him less than ten to one odds. It's 0:16:27.440 --> 0:16:30.720 just not worth it, especially with how good this field is. 0:16:30.960 --> 0:16:34.320 This is one of the deepest invitational fields you're going 0:16:34.400 --> 0:16:36.680 to find on the PGA Tour, and the course is 0:16:36.800 --> 0:16:41.520 specially built for neutralizing the advantages of Victor. Hoblind has 0:16:41.560 --> 0:16:45.040 on difficult courses. Victor Hobland is the guy you want 0:16:45.040 --> 0:16:48.720 to bet at plus eight fifty at Augusta National or 0:16:48.880 --> 0:16:52.359 at Riviera, where like you're going to see guys grinding 0:16:52.480 --> 0:16:55.520 to make pars. When we saw him in the playoff, 0:16:55.680 --> 0:16:58.760 the conditions were brutal, and he made it look easy. 0:16:59.200 --> 0:17:02.480 When the conditions are easy, it's easy for everyone. I 0:17:02.520 --> 0:17:05.920 don't love Victor Hovlind at those odds when everybody's dealing 0:17:05.960 --> 0:17:10.320 with a pretty pretty decent chance to go twenty five 0:17:10.359 --> 0:17:11.159 to thirty under par. 0:17:11.640 --> 0:17:14.399 Yeah, some really good points. I'm with you. I'm not 0:17:14.440 --> 0:17:19.199 that interested in betting the Norwegian in Hawaii here. So 0:17:19.800 --> 0:17:22.320 what about some of the other guys. What about some 0:17:22.359 --> 0:17:26.679 of the other guys with shorter odds, the aforementioned Max Homa, 0:17:27.000 --> 0:17:32.800 Colin Morikawa, Xander Schoffley, Patrick Cantlay, Ludwig aberg all either 0:17:32.840 --> 0:17:36.719 plus twelve hundred or plus fourteen hundred. Does anyone in 0:17:36.760 --> 0:17:37.240 that group? 0:17:37.320 --> 0:17:37.720 Interesting? 0:17:38.520 --> 0:17:41.119 Yeah? I love Patrick Cantlay at twelve to one. That 0:17:41.600 --> 0:17:45.399 this this field is built for Patrick Cantlay to just 0:17:45.560 --> 0:17:49.200 fly under the radar. He's a great ball striker, he's 0:17:49.359 --> 0:17:53.119 even better at making birdie putts. And that's that's what 0:17:53.240 --> 0:17:56.680 I can see him minimizing mistakes. You're not going to 0:17:56.720 --> 0:18:00.919 see Patrick Cantlay three put mini birdie opportunity and turned 0:18:00.960 --> 0:18:03.720 birdies into bogies. He's not going to be grinding for 0:18:03.800 --> 0:18:05.280 pars when everybody else is. 0:18:05.800 --> 0:18:07.199 This is for me. 0:18:07.880 --> 0:18:11.240 Can't Lay and Morikawa are my two favorites here for 0:18:11.320 --> 0:18:14.480 the simple fact that Maricawa's ball striking combined with how 0:18:14.560 --> 0:18:17.120 hot he looked the last time we saw him, and 0:18:17.240 --> 0:18:20.280 Patrick Can'tley is just he's as good as it gets. 0:18:20.280 --> 0:18:24.000 He's consistent every single time we see him play. When 0:18:24.040 --> 0:18:27.000 he doesn't win, he's always right there to have a 0:18:27.080 --> 0:18:30.520 chance to win. So those two guys at the top 0:18:30.560 --> 0:18:33.720 of the board for me, with a little bit of 0:18:33.800 --> 0:18:35.880 preference to Patrick Can'tley and. 0:18:35.880 --> 0:18:38.240 He concerns it all that can't Lay. I don't think 0:18:38.280 --> 0:18:41.919 he played in any of the fall events right just 0:18:41.960 --> 0:18:44.320 got married. Has he done much at all since the 0:18:44.359 --> 0:18:45.680 Ryder cop and do you care? 0:18:46.359 --> 0:18:49.880 I don't care in the slightest. The fall season's kind 0:18:49.880 --> 0:18:53.280 of a joke anyway. The courses are so easy, the 0:18:53.359 --> 0:18:54.960 fields are so easy, So. 0:18:55.440 --> 0:18:56.040 Yeah, I call him. 0:18:56.040 --> 0:19:00.439 Marikawa won his last appearance going away, but he was 0:19:00.480 --> 0:19:04.000 the class of that field from the beginning, and we 0:19:04.080 --> 0:19:07.520 obviously cashed in there because it's so obvious. But can't 0:19:07.600 --> 0:19:10.240 Lay taking the time off. He's the type of guy 0:19:10.320 --> 0:19:12.640 you could just picture rolling out of bed, not even 0:19:12.680 --> 0:19:15.520 doing his hairy just brush his teeth real quick, hit 0:19:15.560 --> 0:19:17.840 the first tea with no warm up, and shoot a 0:19:17.960 --> 0:19:22.280 sixty five. And so I have no qualms about playing 0:19:22.440 --> 0:19:25.240 and putting money behind Patrick Can'tley because he's not the 0:19:25.280 --> 0:19:27.520 type of guy that needs a lot of lead up. 0:19:28.040 --> 0:19:30.600 Yeah, you are getting me interested in can't Ley. I 0:19:30.640 --> 0:19:33.600 really like the other guy at plus twelve hundred, Marikawa, 0:19:33.800 --> 0:19:37.320 just because he is, I mean, like such an elite 0:19:37.320 --> 0:19:40.600 ball striker, maybe the best Irons player in the game, 0:19:41.320 --> 0:19:47.960 and the history on this course, like he loves this course, seventh, seventh, fifth, 0:19:48.080 --> 0:19:52.760 and second. He's basically done everything but win here. So yeah, 0:19:52.840 --> 0:19:55.720 scoring average on this course is sixty eight point one, 0:19:56.400 --> 0:20:02.359 second best over the last five years. I really like him. Yeah, 0:20:02.920 --> 0:20:05.440 before we get to some of the guys with slightly 0:20:05.600 --> 0:20:09.320 longer odds, I would encourage all of you out there 0:20:09.359 --> 0:20:12.480 to download the Betting pros app for iOS and Android, 0:20:12.880 --> 0:20:15.159 sink your sports books in less than a minute to 0:20:15.240 --> 0:20:19.400 automatically track your bets across all sportsbooks in one spot. 0:20:19.880 --> 0:20:23.760 After sinking, you will enjoy access to detailed bet analytics, 0:20:24.280 --> 0:20:28.840 buy sports and bet type, including game picks, props, and parlays. 0:20:29.200 --> 0:20:33.880 You'll also get insights and personalized recommendations for props, game picks, 0:20:33.880 --> 0:20:37.560 and more. Taylor Geer interests. To enjoy the benefits of 0:20:37.920 --> 0:20:42.800 sportsbooks Sync, download the Betting prosapp by visiting Bettingpros dot com, 0:20:42.840 --> 0:20:46.280 slash apps or search Betting Pros in the app store. 0:20:47.080 --> 0:20:50.399 All right, bo, guys in the plus twenty two hundred 0:20:50.520 --> 0:20:54.080 two plus thirty five hundred range, there's some interesting names here. 0:20:54.800 --> 0:21:01.480 Jordan Speith, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Tony Fenow, Tommy Fleetwood, Sung JM, 0:21:01.640 --> 0:21:04.600 Ricky Fowler, anyone you like in this range. 0:21:05.240 --> 0:21:09.160 So I was hoping to see Ludwig Obeg in this group, 0:21:09.280 --> 0:21:12.560 but he's a shorter odds. I think he's he's trending 0:21:12.600 --> 0:21:15.400 at fourteen hundred right this very moment, but that's down 0:21:15.480 --> 0:21:20.439 from twelve. Tommy Fleetwood is the guy that I'm really 0:21:20.480 --> 0:21:23.440 honing in on because of his ability to just put 0:21:23.480 --> 0:21:28.359 together a crazy low round, especially if the winds freshen 0:21:28.480 --> 0:21:31.000 up a bit there, Like if we get that Thursday 0:21:31.000 --> 0:21:35.280 through Sunday trade winds blowing something fifteen to twenty mile 0:21:35.280 --> 0:21:38.240 an hour constant, which it's very liable to do in Maui. 0:21:38.640 --> 0:21:41.680 It's we're talking to it's an island in the middle 0:21:41.680 --> 0:21:42.760 of the Pacific Ocean. 0:21:42.800 --> 0:21:43.040 There. 0:21:43.119 --> 0:21:45.639 It's at the mercy of pretty much every squall that 0:21:45.680 --> 0:21:49.640 could blow through there, especially right now where all the 0:21:49.640 --> 0:21:52.119 there's a lot of weather patterns setting up in the Pacific, 0:21:52.200 --> 0:21:56.320 and we're probably gonna get some weather here. Tommy Fleetwood 0:21:56.320 --> 0:22:00.000 and weather on a course that's gonna kind of neutralize distance. 0:22:01.040 --> 0:22:03.919 I really like how he lines up, both in my 0:22:04.000 --> 0:22:09.440 statistical model and just fitting the course. So where I 0:22:09.560 --> 0:22:11.959 don't like the odds on Obert, even though he's one 0:22:12.000 --> 0:22:14.919 of my favorite golfers coming up this season, I'm going 0:22:14.960 --> 0:22:16.560 to predict him to win a lot of tournaments. 0:22:16.560 --> 0:22:19.199 He's just too short for this field. 0:22:20.040 --> 0:22:24.480 Tommy Fleewood, A twenty eight to one is fantastic odds 0:22:24.560 --> 0:22:27.120 for how well I think he matches up here. 0:22:27.560 --> 0:22:30.720 Yeah, oh Berg. The other thing, like first timers not 0:22:31.040 --> 0:22:35.960 traditionally strong track records at this turn whatever reason. 0:22:36.000 --> 0:22:39.760 It's kind of strange, but it lines up where first 0:22:39.760 --> 0:22:42.439 timers here just don't compete for the title. 0:22:43.200 --> 0:22:47.240 Yeah, it just seems like you need to get your 0:22:48.040 --> 0:22:50.200 get the lay of the land at this place. It's 0:22:50.400 --> 0:22:54.480 definitely a different kind of golf, and like it seems 0:22:54.480 --> 0:22:56.520 like you have to adapt to it a little bit. 0:22:57.440 --> 0:23:01.320 What about some of the long shots bore anyone you fancy? 0:23:01.600 --> 0:23:04.840 Further down the list, there's a couple that I'll be 0:23:05.040 --> 0:23:09.560 laying smaller bets on you get down to forty five 0:23:09.640 --> 0:23:12.439