Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast.
Speaker 1: I'm Pat Fitzmorris. I'm joined by mister bau mcbrair and
Speaker 1: this is a brand new show where we are going
Speaker 1: to be going through each tournament from a betting perspective
Speaker 1: throughout the PGA Tour season in twenty twenty four, and
Speaker 1: that season kicks off this week with the Century the
Speaker 1: season opening tournaments. Well, I guess there's a soft opening
Speaker 1: to the season in the fall, but we know this
Speaker 1: is the real start of the PGA Tour season. So yeah,
Speaker 1: we're going to be bringing you the betting perspective, our
Speaker 1: takes who we like, and we're also going to throw
Speaker 1: in a one and done pick at the end of
Speaker 1: each show for those of you who are in one
Speaker 1: and done pools. So bo, it's always good to see you,
Speaker 1: my friend. Happy New Year to you and your family.
Speaker 1: Juveny golf related resolutions for New Years.
Speaker 2: I would love to play for golf, Pat.
Speaker 1: Just play more Golf's that's the gist of it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's I don't think I think it's been at
Speaker 3: least six months since I even picked up a stick,
Speaker 3: So I got any better than that?
Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely mine is a volume of golf has not
Speaker 1: been that big a problem. I live right next to
Speaker 1: a golf course and I'm out there a lot, but
Speaker 1: I do need to approve the game around the green,
Speaker 1: the chipping, the short pitches, the bunker play. It just
Speaker 1: has been kind of atrocious. Well it's actually gone from
Speaker 1: like I was the worst chipper in the world to
Speaker 1: now I'm just merely bad. But I could take it
Speaker 1: up yet another notch. I'm also in this one and
Speaker 1: done pool, like the most elaborate one and done pool.
Speaker 1: It's just me and a friend head to head, except
Speaker 1: we have to pick two golfers every week and try
Speaker 1: to saddle the other guy with the worst golfer in
Speaker 1: the field and add that to his stroke score for
Speaker 1: each thing. But it's like we do it match play,
Speaker 1: and he's beat me three straight years. So it is
Speaker 1: a resolution to finally beat him, Frenzy. If you want
Speaker 1: a chance to win a free one year premium Betting
Speaker 1: Pros subscription, you need to subscribe to the Betting Pros
Speaker 1: YouTube channel right now, comment below on this video and
Speaker 1: that's it. We will be announcing a winner right here
Speaker 1: on the channel, so make sure to turn on those
Speaker 1: notifications so you can be alerted when new episodes are
Speaker 1: up and to claim your prize. All right, let's get
Speaker 1: to it bo. The PGA season kicking off this week
Speaker 1: with the Century formerly known as the Century Tournament Tournament
Speaker 1: of Champions. As always, this event will be played at
Speaker 1: the Plantation Course at Kapalua, located on the island of
Speaker 1: Maui in Hawaii. The format has changed. It used to
Speaker 1: be that only the players who had won a tournament
Speaker 1: in the previous calendar year were the only ones who
Speaker 1: could get in. Now it's winners in the previous calendar
Speaker 1: year plus anyone who finished inside the top fifty in
Speaker 1: the FedEx Cup standings from their previous year. So, yeah,
Speaker 1: this is the latest instance where the PGA Tour is
Speaker 1: trying to get us to care about the FedEx Cup standings.
Speaker 1: We really don't. I don't know if that's ever going
Speaker 1: to change, but yeah, so that that does affect qualifying
Speaker 1: for this They're going to be fifty nine players in
Speaker 1: this week's field, and as always, there's no cut in
Speaker 1: this event, so everyone is going to play four rounds
Speaker 1: at Kapalua. As for the venue, the Plantation Course, like
Speaker 1: nothing else on tour, massive fairways, huge expanse of greens.
Speaker 1: I believe this is the only par seventy three course
Speaker 1: on tour and at just a smidge under seventy six
Speaker 1: hundred yards. It's a long course, but a lot of
Speaker 1: the longest holes played downhill, including the par five eighteenth,
Speaker 1: which is a joy to watch, one of my favorite
Speaker 1: holes tour. No danger to the right of hall and
Speaker 1: out of bounds to the left. So love watching guys
Speaker 1: hit those big sweeping draws with their second shots with
Speaker 1: you know, long irons or fairway woods, fairway metals.
Speaker 2: In the fifty yards of rollout.
Speaker 1: Yes, yes, absolutely, it's it's just a great haul. Bermuda
Speaker 1: greens at Capeluo tend to be on the slow side,
Speaker 1: so players can be aggressive with Birdie Potts, and it's Hawaii,
Speaker 1: so there's going to be win. The only question is
Speaker 1: whether it's breeze or a gale, And if it's a
Speaker 1: breeze only scores are going to be low the winning
Speaker 1: scores the last three years for this tournament minus twenty seven,
Speaker 1: minus thirty four and minus twenty five. But if the
Speaker 1: players do get strong wins this week, as we saw
Speaker 1: back in twenty twenty scores are going to reflect it.
Speaker 1: Justin Thomas won the winds Swept twenty twenty installation of
Speaker 1: this tournament with the score of minus fourteen. So what
Speaker 1: are some of the keys to playing Kapalua well? Helps
Speaker 1: to be a big hitter because playing the par fives
Speaker 1: and getting your playing the power fives well and getting
Speaker 1: your pro shots close are critical. And because of the
Speaker 1: ultra wide fairways, the bombers have a bigger margin for
Speaker 1: error with their drives, so hitting approach shots close as
Speaker 1: I mentioned, so iron play is big less important. Scrambling
Speaker 1: players are just hitting these massive greens at such a
Speaker 1: high rate that it doesn't really the importance of things
Speaker 1: like chipping in bunker play is kind of muted at
Speaker 1: the century, So bo any thoughts you might have on
Speaker 1: the course and its effect on which players you're going
Speaker 1: to be buying into this week, Well.
Speaker 3: It comes down to the bombers typically don't necessarily make
Speaker 3: this tournament. We've seen despite all these adjustments the PGA
Speaker 3: Tours made to penalize people who are bomb and gouge
Speaker 3: type players, we don't see as many of these players
Speaker 3: qualify for this tournament, let alone dominate this tournament like
Speaker 3: John Ram won two years in a row. He's not
Speaker 3: in this field. He's a long hitter, but he's not
Speaker 3: among the longest hitters. He's just has good distance. He's
Speaker 3: a power player, but his strength is on approach. And
Speaker 3: you have guys like Justin Thomas who won this when
Speaker 3: it was really windy. He's not in this field either.
Speaker 3: It's Cam Smith who won a twenty seven hunder two
Speaker 3: three years ago, not in this field. So the Live
Speaker 3: Tour and its presence has definitely taken effect on this
Speaker 3: tournament because, of course, a lot of the champions from
Speaker 3: previous years are somewhere else. They're playing golf on other
Speaker 3: parts of the world, and for me, it's gonna come
Speaker 3: down to making birdies and avoiding three putt bogies. When
Speaker 3: it comes down to that, you're gonna have lots of
Speaker 3: opportunities to score here, especially if the wins are calm.
Speaker 3: From what I can tell, the forecast is pretty iffy.
Speaker 3: It looks pretty blustery and rainy coming up Thursday through
Speaker 3: Sunday so far is what they're calling for. So I
Speaker 3: think that it's gonna come down to who makes the
Speaker 3: most birdie putts and it's gonna be the equalizer among
Speaker 3: all these guys are gonna be hitting to the same areas.
Speaker 3: A lot of these shorter hitters aren't gonna be dominating
Speaker 3: as much as your top golfers that are long enough.
Speaker 3: It's not gonna take a bomber to win this tournament.
Speaker 3: It's just gonna take being long enough to put yourself
Speaker 3: in position to make birdie putts, make eagle putts. So
Speaker 3: with all these par fives, there's only three par fours
Speaker 3: or sorry, three part three's on this course, which is
Speaker 3: why it's a par seventy three birdie birdie or better
Speaker 3: percentage par four scoring, par five scoring. It's gonna be
Speaker 3: approach and putting For me, it's that's gonna be where
Speaker 3: the money is made in this tournament of fifty I'm
Speaker 3: golfers s, which is the most they've ever had because
Speaker 3: of that new caveat.
Speaker 1: Yeah, normally it's right around thirty. And so even with
Speaker 1: this bigger field, we are not going to see either
Speaker 1: of the last two champions you just alluded to it
Speaker 1: bo the big Spaniard John Rahm joining the Live Tour
Speaker 1: taking the Live money. Two years ago, Cam Smith won
Speaker 1: this tournament also on the live tour, so bo, I
Speaker 1: don't know how much longer we're going to have this
Speaker 1: bifurcation at the highest levels of professional golf, with some
Speaker 1: of the best players in the world taking huge sums
Speaker 1: of money to go and play live on a tour
Speaker 1: that gets a fraction of the attention and the TV
Speaker 1: ratings that the PGA Tour gets. You know, the PGA
Speaker 1: Tour Live tour dynamic reminds me a lot of the
Speaker 1: dynamic between the NFL and the old USFL from the
Speaker 1: nineteen eighties. I'm an old Coger, so I can remember
Speaker 1: the USFL and remember watching some of those games. It
Speaker 1: was an interesting novelty at first, but eventually I stopped
Speaker 1: caring about the USFL when I was a kid and
Speaker 1: only watched the NFL. But the USFL did manage to
Speaker 1: have some of the best football players in the planet
Speaker 1: on the planet in their league at the time, Reggie White,
Speaker 1: Steve Young, Jim Kelly, herschel Walker. The difference is that
Speaker 1: the USFL owners eventually realized the league was never going
Speaker 1: to be a moneymaker for them, But the Saudi money
Speaker 1: that bankrolls the live tour probably isn't going to dry
Speaker 1: up anytime soon. So I don't know bo any any
Speaker 1: salient takes on the situation with LIV and the PGA tour.
Speaker 3: I think long term, the health of professional golf is fine.
Speaker 3: This investment by the Saudi Public Investment Fund.
Speaker 2: It's alarming.
Speaker 3: In the short term, we're seeing a lot of We're
Speaker 3: seeing a lot of concern with the people worried about
Speaker 3: the health of the sport as a professional. But if
Speaker 3: you just follow the dollar signs, both sides of this
Speaker 3: argument care about the game of golf. The Saudi Public
Speaker 3: Investment Fund is an investment fund. They weren't going to
Speaker 3: invest in something they didn't feel like they could get
Speaker 3: a return on in the in the short to the
Speaker 3: semi short to long term. So whether whatever deal happens
Speaker 3: down the road, I think it's just going to be
Speaker 3: a means to an end. Right now, it's all up
Speaker 3: in the air in Limbo. But I think after a
Speaker 3: couple of years of this, we're going to start to
Speaker 3: see more serious talks of merging, kind of like what
Speaker 3: you said with the USFL. I'll go back even farther
Speaker 3: to the AFL, where the AFL and the NFL were
Speaker 3: co existing entities. And they eventually merged, and right now
Speaker 3: the merger looks dicey at best because of antitrust lawsuits
Speaker 3: and all that that have a lot of merit.
Speaker 2: But at the end of the.
Speaker 3: Day, these guys are all free agents. They're all independent contractors.
Speaker 3: They can play where they want to play. They can
Speaker 3: get paid by whoever wants to pay them. When you
Speaker 3: reach the pinnacle of a sport like golf, where the
Speaker 3: level of talent between a PGA Tour professional and your
Speaker 3: club pro is astronomically, it's a chasm of talent. We're
Speaker 3: talking about, just a huge gap to leap to get
Speaker 3: to where Jen ram is. So take your money, man,
Speaker 3: It's short term and in three years when everybody's going
Speaker 3: to joke about, hey, remember when the Live Tour sniped
Speaker 3: all these top golfers for hundreds of millions of dollars,
Speaker 3: And we're back under one umbrella. Whether it's called the
Speaker 3: PGA Tour or whatever, it's still.
Speaker 2: Going to be the same. We're still going to tune
Speaker 2: in to the players we like.
Speaker 3: I still like Jen Ram. I might even tune into
Speaker 3: a little bit more Live because of him being on
Speaker 3: that tour. Cam Smith did that for me so I
Speaker 3: just I just love watching golf. And if you love
Speaker 3: watching golf and you have your favorite golfers out there,
Speaker 3: don't hesitate to support them and whatever they do. It's
Speaker 3: not it's not the end of the world to like
Speaker 3: something that maybe you should have some second thoughts about.
Speaker 1: I don't know, Yeah, no, I know. I mean, I
Speaker 1: guess my biggest hang up with this and not having
Speaker 1: these guys on the PGA Tour, Like I'm gonna miss
Speaker 1: seeing these guys play some of my favorite courses and
Speaker 1: some of my favorite venues, you know, like seeing not
Speaker 1: seeing John Rahm play Riviera. It's gonna hurt my heart
Speaker 1: a little bit this year. So all right, but let's
Speaker 1: let's get down to brass TCKs and talk about player
Speaker 1: odds for the century. Scottie Scheffler opens as the betting
Speaker 1: favorite at plus five point fifty to win on DraftKings.
Speaker 1: Victor Hovland plus eight fifty, Max Homa and Colin Morikawa
Speaker 1: are both plus twelve hundred, and Xander Schoffley, Patrick Cantley,
Speaker 1: and Ludvig Aberg are all at plus fourteen hundred. All right,
Speaker 1: bo I know you're a big Scottie Scheffler guy. He
Speaker 1: is a phenomenal tee degreen player, which would seemingly make
Speaker 1: him a great fit for this course. He finished seventh
Speaker 1: year last year, and the only other start at Kapalua
Speaker 1: he has had resulted in a thirteenth place finish in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty one. Is he worth backing at plus five
Speaker 1: point fifty.
Speaker 3: No, I wouldn't say so, just because of what I
Speaker 3: said earlier. I'm putting a little bit more weight behind
Speaker 3: a birdier better percentage, and that's really where he lagged
Speaker 3: last year. That was what his poor putting brought us.
Speaker 3: Is we're talking about probably the top five ball striking
Speaker 3: season in the history of golf. But when you come
Speaker 3: down to it, he's dead last in this field, er
Speaker 3: bottom five in this field and putting and that cost
Speaker 3: him a lot of birdies that cost him a lot
Speaker 3: of money, a lot of wins last season, and in
Speaker 3: a field this strong, I don't love him. At eleven
Speaker 3: to two, that seems really steep for a guy who
Speaker 3: doesn't measure up well with the Victor Holin's of the world,
Speaker 3: who put much better with similar to not quite as
Speaker 3: good ball striking, but still world class, and even even
Speaker 3: Hovelin's odds give me pause. So at eleven to two
Speaker 3: or plus five fifty, however you want to say it,
Speaker 3: I think Scotty Scheffler is is a no go unless
Speaker 3: you just absolutely believe that he's gonna pull himself back
Speaker 3: together with the flat stick and pay off with a
Speaker 3: large bet.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you, bo. I mean, supposedly Scotty has
Speaker 1: worked on the putting a lot in the you know, yeah,
Speaker 1: I know, man, like, you don't want to let ball
Speaker 1: striking like that go to waste. And you know, apparently
Speaker 1: in some of the fall events he was putting a
Speaker 1: little bit better. But yeah, he's he's got a ways
Speaker 1: to go if he wants to, you know, become as
Speaker 1: world class a putter as he is a ball striker.
Speaker 1: Or what about Hoveland, bo, Like, he was just phenomenal
Speaker 1: last summer, going completely nuclear in the playoff back in August.
Speaker 1: I mean, I can't remember many instances where I've seen
Speaker 1: someone as hot as Victor Hoveland was like during late
Speaker 1: July and August. But he's played this event three other times,
Speaker 1: finishing thirty, first, thirtieth, and eighteenth. So not many signs
Speaker 1: of life at the Plantation course, any interest in Victor
Speaker 1: Hoveland at plus eight point fifty.
Speaker 3: No, I really I was not impressed with his a
Speaker 3: few appearances after the playoff where you could tell he
Speaker 3: was kind of still languishing in that post victory hangover.
Speaker 3: I mean, if you win fifteen million dollars, I guess
Speaker 3: it's pretty natural for that to hecur I just think
Speaker 3: that he's going to take a little bit longer to
Speaker 3: get into the swing of competitive golf. That's a big
Speaker 3: difference here is a lot of these guys like Rory
Speaker 3: McElroy not being in this field just simply because he
Speaker 3: doesn't he's not quite mentally prepared to start his season.
Speaker 2: And I love Hobland.
Speaker 3: He won me a ton of money last year writing
Speaker 3: him through the playoffs made me so much money betting him.
Speaker 2: It was exciting for everyone involved.
Speaker 3: But this is not the tournament where I'm going to
Speaker 3: be betting him less than ten to one odds. It's
Speaker 3: just not worth it, especially with how good this field is.
Speaker 3: This is one of the deepest invitational fields you're going
Speaker 3: to find on the PGA Tour, and the course is
Speaker 3: specially built for neutralizing the advantages of Victor. Hoblind has
Speaker 3: on difficult courses. Victor Hobland is the guy you want
Speaker 3: to bet at plus eight fifty at Augusta National or
Speaker 3: at Riviera, where like you're going to see guys grinding
Speaker 3: to make pars. When we saw him in the playoff,
Speaker 3: the conditions were brutal, and he made it look easy.
Speaker 3: When the conditions are easy, it's easy for everyone. I
Speaker 3: don't love Victor Hovlind at those odds when everybody's dealing
Speaker 3: with a pretty pretty decent chance to go twenty five
Speaker 3: to thirty under par.
Speaker 1: Yeah, some really good points. I'm with you. I'm not
Speaker 1: that interested in betting the Norwegian in Hawaii here. So
Speaker 1: what about some of the other guys. What about some
Speaker 1: of the other guys with shorter odds, the aforementioned Max Homa,
Speaker 1: Colin Morikawa, Xander Schoffley, Patrick Cantlay, Ludwig aberg all either
Speaker 1: plus twelve hundred or plus fourteen hundred. Does anyone in
Speaker 1: that group?
Speaker 2: Interesting?
Speaker 3: Yeah? I love Patrick Cantlay at twelve to one. That
Speaker 3: this this field is built for Patrick Cantlay to just
Speaker 3: fly under the radar. He's a great ball striker, he's
Speaker 3: even better at making birdie putts. And that's that's what
Speaker 3: I can see him minimizing mistakes. You're not going to
Speaker 3: see Patrick Cantlay three put mini birdie opportunity and turned
Speaker 3: birdies into bogies. He's not going to be grinding for
Speaker 3: pars when everybody else is.
Speaker 2: This is for me.
Speaker 3: Can't Lay and Morikawa are my two favorites here for
Speaker 3: the simple fact that Maricawa's ball striking combined with how
Speaker 3: hot he looked the last time we saw him, and
Speaker 3: Patrick Can'tley is just he's as good as it gets.
Speaker 3: He's consistent every single time we see him play. When
Speaker 3: he doesn't win, he's always right there to have a
Speaker 3: chance to win. So those two guys at the top
Speaker 3: of the board for me, with a little bit of
Speaker 3: preference to Patrick Can'tley and.
Speaker 1: He concerns it all that can't Lay. I don't think
Speaker 1: he played in any of the fall events right just
Speaker 1: got married. Has he done much at all since the
Speaker 1: Ryder cop and do you care?
Speaker 3: I don't care in the slightest. The fall season's kind
Speaker 3: of a joke anyway. The courses are so easy, the
Speaker 3: fields are so easy, So.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I call him.
Speaker 3: Marikawa won his last appearance going away, but he was
Speaker 3: the class of that field from the beginning, and we
Speaker 3: obviously cashed in there because it's so obvious. But can't
Speaker 3: Lay taking the time off. He's the type of guy
Speaker 3: you could just picture rolling out of bed, not even
Speaker 3: doing his hairy just brush his teeth real quick, hit
Speaker 3: the first tea with no warm up, and shoot a
Speaker 3: sixty five. And so I have no qualms about playing
Speaker 3: and putting money behind Patrick Can'tley because he's not the
Speaker 3: type of guy that needs a lot of lead up.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you are getting me interested in can't Ley. I
Speaker 1: really like the other guy at plus twelve hundred, Marikawa,
Speaker 1: just because he is, I mean, like such an elite
Speaker 1: ball striker, maybe the best Irons player in the game,
Speaker 1: and the history on this course, like he loves this course, seventh, seventh, fifth,
Speaker 1: and second. He's basically done everything but win here. So yeah,
Speaker 1: scoring average on this course is sixty eight point one,
Speaker 1: second best over the last five years. I really like him. Yeah,
Speaker 1: before we get to some of the guys with slightly
Speaker 1: longer odds, I would encourage all of you out there
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Speaker 1: All right, bo, guys in the plus twenty two hundred
Speaker 1: two plus thirty five hundred range, there's some interesting names here.
Speaker 1: Jordan Speith, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Tony Fenow, Tommy Fleetwood, Sung JM,
Speaker 1: Ricky Fowler, anyone you like in this range.
Speaker 3: So I was hoping to see Ludwig Obeg in this group,
Speaker 3: but he's a shorter odds. I think he's he's trending
Speaker 3: at fourteen hundred right this very moment, but that's down
Speaker 3: from twelve. Tommy Fleetwood is the guy that I'm really
Speaker 3: honing in on because of his ability to just put
Speaker 3: together a crazy low round, especially if the winds freshen
Speaker 3: up a bit there, Like if we get that Thursday
Speaker 3: through Sunday trade winds blowing something fifteen to twenty mile
Speaker 3: an hour constant, which it's very liable to do in Maui.
Speaker 3: It's we're talking to it's an island in the middle
Speaker 3: of the Pacific Ocean.
Speaker 2: There.
Speaker 3: It's at the mercy of pretty much every squall that
Speaker 3: could blow through there, especially right now where all the
Speaker 3: there's a lot of weather patterns setting up in the Pacific,
Speaker 3: and we're probably gonna get some weather here. Tommy Fleetwood
Speaker 3: and weather on a course that's gonna kind of neutralize distance.
Speaker 3: I really like how he lines up, both in my
Speaker 3: statistical model and just fitting the course. So where I
Speaker 3: don't like the odds on Obert, even though he's one
Speaker 3: of my favorite golfers coming up this season, I'm going
Speaker 3: to predict him to win a lot of tournaments.
Speaker 2: He's just too short for this field.
Speaker 3: Tommy Fleewood, A twenty eight to one is fantastic odds
Speaker 3: for how well I think he matches up here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, oh Berg. The other thing, like first timers not
Speaker 1: traditionally strong track records at this turn whatever reason.
Speaker 3: It's kind of strange, but it lines up where first
Speaker 3: timers here just don't compete for the title.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it just seems like you need to get your
Speaker 1: get the lay of the land at this place. It's
Speaker 1: definitely a different kind of golf, and like it seems
Speaker 1: like you have to adapt to it a little bit.
Speaker 1: What about some of the long shots bore anyone you fancy?
Speaker 3: Further down the list, there's a couple that I'll be
Speaker 3: laying smaller bets on you get down to forty five
Speaker 3: to one. Wyndham Clark seems to match up well with
Speaker 3: this place because he's a long hitter with kind of
Speaker 3: sketchy accuracy off the tee, which is kind of It's okay,
Speaker 3: it's fine by everybody here because the fairways are eighty
Speaker 3: yards wide in some spots the greens are gigantic. So
Speaker 3: Wyndom Clark is a world class putter. He's top five
Speaker 3: in the world putting, and with his distance and not
Speaker 3: having to worry about missing fairways here too much. I
Speaker 3: like his upside at forty five to one, and then
Speaker 3: going down another great putter with decent off the tee
Speaker 3: metrics that I can see winning here, Danny McCarthy at
Speaker 3: sixty to one. Those that's about as deep as I'll
Speaker 3: go here because of how strong the top of this
Speaker 3: field is.
Speaker 1: And I think McCarthy had a couple of top tens
Speaker 1: in the fall events. I know, you know, we like you.
Speaker 1: I don't put a lot into the fall events ball,
Speaker 1: but it's not bad to get a guy like that
Speaker 1: who is kind of in good form coming into this.
Speaker 1: And man Wyndham Clark, now you're now you're intriguing me
Speaker 1: with a big hitter who can put it well and
Speaker 1: like he has some pedigree to him, going to get
Speaker 1: him at forty five to one, that that does seem
Speaker 1: like a pretty intriguing value. So yeah, kind of, So
Speaker 1: what's a.
Speaker 3: Lot of people compared to this, to to the elevation,
Speaker 3: changes in the distance, compare this place to Augusta National,
Speaker 3: obviously with lower stakes at hand. I kind of like
Speaker 3: the comparison to the PGA Tours or the PGA Championship
Speaker 3: Course last year where we saw we saw Window win,
Speaker 3: we saw Kurt Kitty Yama one at finished fourth in
Speaker 3: that where he's he's my deep shot. I'm gonna throw
Speaker 3: a couple of bucks on Kirkittyam at one hundred and
Speaker 3: thirty to one, just because he's a bomber suspect accuracy
Speaker 3: off the tea again, but one of the best long
Speaker 3: iron players in the world. And it just so happens
Speaker 3: that they're going to seventy six hundred yards to traverse.
Speaker 3: You're going to see some long iron approaches on a
Speaker 3: lot of holes. And I just like that archetype of
Speaker 3: player here, where get a hot putter. Just get a
Speaker 3: hot putter, and that you can win this tournament. John
Speaker 3: Ram not necessarily known for his putting, but you could
Speaker 3: tell when he got here he got real comfortable in
Speaker 3: a hurry.
Speaker 1: And it doesn't hurt that Kirk Kidiama is a fellow
Speaker 1: Northern California guy.
Speaker 2: Bo.
Speaker 3: I mean, my bias always shows when I pick him,
Speaker 3: but I don't pick him as often as you would think.
Speaker 3: I picked him three times last year, and one was
Speaker 3: at bay Hill when he won at two hundred and
Speaker 3: fifty to one. He finished fourth at the PGA when
Speaker 3: I picked him to I picked through a couple dollars
Speaker 3: on him to win, and I ended up double dipping
Speaker 3: at top five and top ten picks there. And then
Speaker 3: I picked him in another tournament where he lined up
Speaker 3: well like that, but he missed the cut.
Speaker 2: So you don't.
Speaker 3: Always go after these guys, even if they're from the
Speaker 3: same home town. I love rooting for him. This is
Speaker 3: the kind of place where, I mean the first time
Speaker 3: are you're not expecting to make any noise. But his
Speaker 3: odds are cheap enough for you. You can just say, hey,
Speaker 3: let's root for him. With a little like five bucks
Speaker 3: on the line. Who cares if he wins, you get
Speaker 3: more than a thousand dollars payoff. I just love doing
Speaker 3: those little those little dime drops in there, just to
Speaker 3: just have some extra rooting interest.
Speaker 1: So what is on your betting card right now? The
Speaker 1: odds have been up for less than twenty four hours.
Speaker 1: I believe on draftings. But what have you jumped on
Speaker 1: right away?
Speaker 3: Subject to change? But I have can't lay at twelve
Speaker 3: to one. I have half a unit bet on Xander
Speaker 3: Shopley at fourteen to one, but I'm gonna bet heavier
Speaker 3: on his top five I think he's a top five lock.
Speaker 3: And then Tommy Fleetwood at twenty eight to one. Then
Speaker 3: I'm gonna throw some Wyndham Clark.
Speaker 2: And of course my guy Kirk Kitty.
Speaker 3: I'm one hundred and thirty to one is a quarter
Speaker 3: unit bet for me is five bucks.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I'm going to piggyback you with a
Speaker 1: little Wyndham Clark wager here.
Speaker 3: It's a fun one because you love Bruton for the guy.
Speaker 3: He's one of the best people out there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, good dude, And like you said, I mean the
Speaker 1: game seems to suit this course pretty well. I am
Speaker 1: betting Colin Morikawa plus twelve hundred not only to win,
Speaker 1: but also to finish top five at plus twe plus
Speaker 1: two to eighty, so you know again the force Yeah
Speaker 1: four starts seven seventh, wait, seven, seven, five and two,
Speaker 1: and just the elite ball striking just fits this course
Speaker 1: so well. You know, I'm not sure the wind is
Speaker 1: a great thing for him. If it's you know, I've
Speaker 1: if I'm terrified by the weather report, I might pull
Speaker 1: back a little bit, But as of now, I think
Speaker 1: I've got half a unit down on him. Jordan Speith,
Speaker 1: I like it plus twenty two hundred bow the wide
Speaker 1: fairways helping one here he's won here, and the wide
Speaker 1: fairways helping the gate. The biggest achilles heel in his
Speaker 1: game the arrantee shots, which can come out at any time.
Speaker 1: Although I'm not sure if.
Speaker 3: Steith is going to be like on a cliff side.
Speaker 2: On one of these shots.
Speaker 3: He was like, let's tune in with Jordan Speith. Here
Speaker 3: is on the flip side, hanging on.
Speaker 2: For dear life.
Speaker 1: I was gonna say, I'm not sure even the Cappelloua
Speaker 1: fairways are wide enough for Jordan Speed to stay on
Speaker 1: them all the time. Sung jm intrigues me at plus
Speaker 1: three thousand em has played this event three times, finishing fifth, eighth,
Speaker 1: and thirteenth, and since twenty eighteen, no player has a
Speaker 1: better scoring average at Capelua than Sung Jim with his
Speaker 1: sixty seven point seven stroke average and then one weird
Speaker 1: little bet I kind of like Shamous Power at plus
Speaker 1: ten to one to finish top ten. Power has finished
Speaker 1: fifteenth and twenty fifth in his two other appearances at Kapalua,
Speaker 1: but with a really respectable scoring average of sixty eight
Speaker 1: point six. I feel like ten to one is a
Speaker 1: pretty good price for a top ten, so I'm gonna
Speaker 1: throw a lot, well half a unit down.
Speaker 3: It's a little irishman bias going into that too.
Speaker 1: Maybe maybe, Hey, you've got Kurt Kittyama, I've got Seamus Power.
Speaker 1: What are you gonna do? And you know, like for
Speaker 1: those of you out there who like parlays and props,
Speaker 1: just gonna throw a couple out there. I have not
Speaker 1: played any of these, but I'm intrigued by a top
Speaker 1: five parlay with Scotti, Scheffler and Colin Morikawa at plus
Speaker 1: eight hundred, so you need both of those guys to
Speaker 1: finish top five. And another one I'm considering is a
Speaker 1: triple chance parlay where you get three guys. One of
Speaker 1: the three has to win with Scheffler, Morikawa and your
Speaker 1: guy can't lay. That one is plus four point fifty,
Speaker 1: so you get any of the three at plus four fifty.
Speaker 1: That's pretty juicy.
Speaker 2: That's right set of odds right there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, not too bad, all right, Baul? How about a
Speaker 1: one and done pick for the people out there in
Speaker 1: one and done pool. So we're gonna keep track of these.
Speaker 1: We're not gonna repeat guys, use them and lose them.
Speaker 1: But who do you like in a one and done
Speaker 1: this week?
Speaker 2: Oh?
Speaker 3: I think I'll stick with Can'tley. That's because I think
Speaker 3: that as far as this course is concerned, he's gonna
Speaker 3: have other opportunities to be a repeat guy. But again,
Speaker 3: he's so consistent that I don't mind burning him early.
Speaker 3: It's not you're not gonna regret him coming because it's
Speaker 3: not like you have like, oh, I'm gonna wait for
Speaker 3: Detroit for to play Tony Fenow because that's smart thing
Speaker 3: to do.
Speaker 2: Is what you want to do in a one and
Speaker 2: done is kind of line.
Speaker 3: Up which golfers you'd like to play at every single tournament.
Speaker 3: Just line up all the thirty six or whatever tournaments
Speaker 3: and put a group of guys next to that event.
Speaker 3: Patrick Cantley is not a guy that she's specifically pigeonhole
Speaker 3: into a specific event. So I don't mind burning him
Speaker 3: right off the bat, because I know he's going to
Speaker 3: be consistent. I'm not going to be yearning for him
Speaker 3: later in the season.
Speaker 1: Yeah. With me, I've got a guy who does play
Speaker 1: certain events pretty well, Ricky Fowler. I'm gonna go with
Speaker 1: this week, and he's he's always good in Phoenix, He's
Speaker 1: always good. Oh man, what's the course in Charlotte. I'm
Speaker 1: blanking on the name right now. Quail Hollow. He's going
Speaker 1: to a really good Quail Hollow player. But you know,
Speaker 1: I want to take Fowler because we have seen him
Speaker 1: come completely off the rails before for a long stretch
Speaker 1: of his career. I want to get him early while
Speaker 1: he's playing well, while he is still in really good form.
Speaker 1: And oh, by the way, his last three finishes in
Speaker 1: this event fifth, fourth, fifth, so he's traditionally fared well.
Speaker 1: And the Strokes gained metrics at at Kapaalua. So and
Speaker 1: I'm gonna grab him bow before things go haywire with
Speaker 1: his game. So all right, yeah, So Patrick cantleigh for
Speaker 1: Bau McBrayer and Ricky Foller for Pat Fitzmorris. So that
Speaker 1: is going to do it for this installment of the
Speaker 1: Betting Pros PGA podcast. We will be back next week
Speaker 1: to go over the Sony Open, as the tour stays
Speaker 1: in Hawaii for one more week. And good luck to
Speaker 1: all of you this week. Enjoy those of you like
Speaker 1: me who are in the extreme upper Midwest, enjoy watching
Speaker 1: guys play golf in short sleeves this week, because you
Speaker 1: know it'll be us soon enough, in like five months.
Speaker 1: So thanks again everyone, so long. We'll see you next week.
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