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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm Pat Fitzmorris. I'm joined by mister bau mcbrair and

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Speaker 1: this is a brand new show where we are going

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Speaker 1: to be going through each tournament from a betting perspective

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Speaker 1: throughout the PGA Tour season in twenty twenty four, and

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Speaker 1: that season kicks off this week with the Century the

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Speaker 1: season opening tournaments. Well, I guess there's a soft opening

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Speaker 1: to the season in the fall, but we know this

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Speaker 1: is the real start of the PGA Tour season. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: we're going to be bringing you the betting perspective, our

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Speaker 1: takes who we like, and we're also going to throw

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Speaker 1: in a one and done pick at the end of

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Speaker 1: each show for those of you who are in one

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Speaker 1: and done pools. So bo, it's always good to see you,

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Speaker 1: my friend. Happy New Year to you and your family.

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Speaker 1: Juveny golf related resolutions for New Years.

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Speaker 2: I would love to play for golf, Pat.

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Speaker 1: Just play more Golf's that's the gist of it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's I don't think I think it's been at

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Speaker 3: least six months since I even picked up a stick,

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Speaker 3: So I got any better than that?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely mine is a volume of golf has not

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Speaker 1: been that big a problem. I live right next to

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Speaker 1: a golf course and I'm out there a lot, but

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Speaker 1: I do need to approve the game around the green,

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Speaker 1: the chipping, the short pitches, the bunker play. It just

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Speaker 1: has been kind of atrocious. Well it's actually gone from

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Speaker 1: like I was the worst chipper in the world to

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Speaker 1: now I'm just merely bad. But I could take it

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Speaker 1: up yet another notch. I'm also in this one and

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Speaker 1: done pool, like the most elaborate one and done pool.

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Speaker 1: It's just me and a friend head to head, except

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Speaker 1: we have to pick two golfers every week and try

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Speaker 1: to saddle the other guy with the worst golfer in

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Speaker 1: the field and add that to his stroke score for

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Speaker 1: each thing. But it's like we do it match play,

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Speaker 1: and he's beat me three straight years. So it is

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Speaker 1: a resolution to finally beat him, Frenzy. If you want

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Speaker 1: a chance to win a free one year premium Betting

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Speaker 1: Pros subscription, you need to subscribe to the Betting Pros

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Speaker 1: YouTube channel right now, comment below on this video and

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Speaker 1: that's it. We will be announcing a winner right here

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Speaker 1: on the channel, so make sure to turn on those

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Speaker 1: notifications so you can be alerted when new episodes are

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Speaker 1: up and to claim your prize. All right, let's get

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Speaker 1: to it bo. The PGA season kicking off this week

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Speaker 1: with the Century formerly known as the Century Tournament Tournament

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Speaker 1: of Champions. As always, this event will be played at

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Speaker 1: the Plantation Course at Kapalua, located on the island of

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Speaker 1: Maui in Hawaii. The format has changed. It used to

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Speaker 1: be that only the players who had won a tournament

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Speaker 1: in the previous calendar year were the only ones who

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Speaker 1: could get in. Now it's winners in the previous calendar

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Speaker 1: year plus anyone who finished inside the top fifty in

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Speaker 1: the FedEx Cup standings from their previous year. So, yeah,

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Speaker 1: this is the latest instance where the PGA Tour is

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Speaker 1: trying to get us to care about the FedEx Cup standings.

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Speaker 1: We really don't. I don't know if that's ever going

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Speaker 1: to change, but yeah, so that that does affect qualifying

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Speaker 1: for this They're going to be fifty nine players in

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Speaker 1: this week's field, and as always, there's no cut in

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Speaker 1: this event, so everyone is going to play four rounds

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Speaker 1: at Kapalua. As for the venue, the Plantation Course, like

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Speaker 1: nothing else on tour, massive fairways, huge expanse of greens.

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Speaker 1: I believe this is the only par seventy three course

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Speaker 1: on tour and at just a smidge under seventy six

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Speaker 1: hundred yards. It's a long course, but a lot of

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Speaker 1: the longest holes played downhill, including the par five eighteenth,

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Speaker 1: which is a joy to watch, one of my favorite

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Speaker 1: holes tour. No danger to the right of hall and

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Speaker 1: out of bounds to the left. So love watching guys

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Speaker 1: hit those big sweeping draws with their second shots with

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Speaker 1: you know, long irons or fairway woods, fairway metals.

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Speaker 2: In the fifty yards of rollout.

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Speaker 1: Yes, yes, absolutely, it's it's just a great haul. Bermuda

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Speaker 1: greens at Capeluo tend to be on the slow side,

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Speaker 1: so players can be aggressive with Birdie Potts, and it's Hawaii,

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Speaker 1: so there's going to be win. The only question is

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Speaker 1: whether it's breeze or a gale, And if it's a

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Speaker 1: breeze only scores are going to be low the winning

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Speaker 1: scores the last three years for this tournament minus twenty seven,

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Speaker 1: minus thirty four and minus twenty five. But if the

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Speaker 1: players do get strong wins this week, as we saw

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Speaker 1: back in twenty twenty scores are going to reflect it.

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Speaker 1: Justin Thomas won the winds Swept twenty twenty installation of

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Speaker 1: this tournament with the score of minus fourteen. So what

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Speaker 1: are some of the keys to playing Kapalua well? Helps

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Speaker 1: to be a big hitter because playing the par fives

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Speaker 1: and getting your playing the power fives well and getting

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Speaker 1: your pro shots close are critical. And because of the

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Speaker 1: ultra wide fairways, the bombers have a bigger margin for

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Speaker 1: error with their drives, so hitting approach shots close as

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Speaker 1: I mentioned, so iron play is big less important. Scrambling

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Speaker 1: players are just hitting these massive greens at such a

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Speaker 1: high rate that it doesn't really the importance of things

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Speaker 1: like chipping in bunker play is kind of muted at

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Speaker 1: the century, So bo any thoughts you might have on

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Speaker 1: the course and its effect on which players you're going

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Speaker 1: to be buying into this week, Well.

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Speaker 3: It comes down to the bombers typically don't necessarily make

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Speaker 3: this tournament. We've seen despite all these adjustments the PGA

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Speaker 3: Tours made to penalize people who are bomb and gouge

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Speaker 3: type players, we don't see as many of these players

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Speaker 3: qualify for this tournament, let alone dominate this tournament like

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Speaker 3: John Ram won two years in a row. He's not

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Speaker 3: in this field. He's a long hitter, but he's not

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Speaker 3: among the longest hitters. He's just has good distance. He's

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Speaker 3: a power player, but his strength is on approach. And

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Speaker 3: you have guys like Justin Thomas who won this when

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Speaker 3: it was really windy. He's not in this field either.

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Speaker 3: It's Cam Smith who won a twenty seven hunder two

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Speaker 3: three years ago, not in this field. So the Live

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Speaker 3: Tour and its presence has definitely taken effect on this

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Speaker 3: tournament because, of course, a lot of the champions from

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Speaker 3: previous years are somewhere else. They're playing golf on other

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Speaker 3: parts of the world, and for me, it's gonna come

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Speaker 3: down to making birdies and avoiding three putt bogies. When

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Speaker 3: it comes down to that, you're gonna have lots of

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Speaker 3: opportunities to score here, especially if the wins are calm.

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Speaker 3: From what I can tell, the forecast is pretty iffy.

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Speaker 3: It looks pretty blustery and rainy coming up Thursday through

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Speaker 3: Sunday so far is what they're calling for. So I

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Speaker 3: think that it's gonna come down to who makes the

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Speaker 3: most birdie putts and it's gonna be the equalizer among

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Speaker 3: all these guys are gonna be hitting to the same areas.

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Speaker 3: A lot of these shorter hitters aren't gonna be dominating

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Speaker 3: as much as your top golfers that are long enough.

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Speaker 3: It's not gonna take a bomber to win this tournament.

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Speaker 3: It's just gonna take being long enough to put yourself

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Speaker 3: in position to make birdie putts, make eagle putts. So

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Speaker 3: with all these par fives, there's only three par fours

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Speaker 3: or sorry, three part three's on this course, which is

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Speaker 3: why it's a par seventy three birdie birdie or better

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Speaker 3: percentage par four scoring, par five scoring. It's gonna be

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Speaker 3: approach and putting For me, it's that's gonna be where

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Speaker 3: the money is made in this tournament of fifty I'm

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Speaker 3: golfers s, which is the most they've ever had because

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Speaker 3: of that new caveat.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, normally it's right around thirty. And so even with

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Speaker 1: this bigger field, we are not going to see either

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Speaker 1: of the last two champions you just alluded to it

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Speaker 1: bo the big Spaniard John Rahm joining the Live Tour

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Speaker 1: taking the Live money. Two years ago, Cam Smith won

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Speaker 1: this tournament also on the live tour, so bo, I

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Speaker 1: don't know how much longer we're going to have this

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Speaker 1: bifurcation at the highest levels of professional golf, with some

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Speaker 1: of the best players in the world taking huge sums

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Speaker 1: of money to go and play live on a tour

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Speaker 1: that gets a fraction of the attention and the TV

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Speaker 1: ratings that the PGA Tour gets. You know, the PGA

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Speaker 1: Tour Live tour dynamic reminds me a lot of the

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Speaker 1: dynamic between the NFL and the old USFL from the

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Speaker 1: nineteen eighties. I'm an old Coger, so I can remember

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Speaker 1: the USFL and remember watching some of those games. It

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Speaker 1: was an interesting novelty at first, but eventually I stopped

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Speaker 1: caring about the USFL when I was a kid and

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Speaker 1: only watched the NFL. But the USFL did manage to

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Speaker 1: have some of the best football players in the planet

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Speaker 1: on the planet in their league at the time, Reggie White,

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Speaker 1: Steve Young, Jim Kelly, herschel Walker. The difference is that

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Speaker 1: the USFL owners eventually realized the league was never going

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Speaker 1: to be a moneymaker for them, But the Saudi money

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Speaker 1: that bankrolls the live tour probably isn't going to dry

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Speaker 1: up anytime soon. So I don't know bo any any

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Speaker 1: salient takes on the situation with LIV and the PGA tour.

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Speaker 3: I think long term, the health of professional golf is fine.

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Speaker 3: This investment by the Saudi Public Investment Fund.

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Speaker 2: It's alarming.

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Speaker 3: In the short term, we're seeing a lot of We're

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Speaker 3: seeing a lot of concern with the people worried about

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Speaker 3: the health of the sport as a professional. But if

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Speaker 3: you just follow the dollar signs, both sides of this

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Speaker 3: argument care about the game of golf. The Saudi Public

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Speaker 3: Investment Fund is an investment fund. They weren't going to

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Speaker 3: invest in something they didn't feel like they could get

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Speaker 3: a return on in the in the short to the

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Speaker 3: semi short to long term. So whether whatever deal happens

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Speaker 3: down the road, I think it's just going to be

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Speaker 3: a means to an end. Right now, it's all up

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Speaker 3: in the air in Limbo. But I think after a

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Speaker 3: couple of years of this, we're going to start to

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Speaker 3: see more serious talks of merging, kind of like what

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Speaker 3: you said with the USFL. I'll go back even farther

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Speaker 3: to the AFL, where the AFL and the NFL were

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Speaker 3: co existing entities. And they eventually merged, and right now

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Speaker 3: the merger looks dicey at best because of antitrust lawsuits

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Speaker 3: and all that that have a lot of merit.

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Speaker 2: But at the end of the.

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Speaker 3: Day, these guys are all free agents. They're all independent contractors.

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Speaker 3: They can play where they want to play. They can

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Speaker 3: get paid by whoever wants to pay them. When you

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Speaker 3: reach the pinnacle of a sport like golf, where the

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Speaker 3: level of talent between a PGA Tour professional and your

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Speaker 3: club pro is astronomically, it's a chasm of talent. We're

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Speaker 3: talking about, just a huge gap to leap to get

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Speaker 3: to where Jen ram is. So take your money, man,

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Speaker 3: It's short term and in three years when everybody's going

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Speaker 3: to joke about, hey, remember when the Live Tour sniped

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Speaker 3: all these top golfers for hundreds of millions of dollars,

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Speaker 3: And we're back under one umbrella. Whether it's called the

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Speaker 3: PGA Tour or whatever, it's still.

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Speaker 2: Going to be the same. We're still going to tune

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Speaker 2: in to the players we like.

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Speaker 3: I still like Jen Ram. I might even tune into

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Speaker 3: a little bit more Live because of him being on

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Speaker 3: that tour. Cam Smith did that for me so I

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Speaker 3: just I just love watching golf. And if you love

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Speaker 3: watching golf and you have your favorite golfers out there,

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Speaker 3: don't hesitate to support them and whatever they do. It's

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Speaker 3: not it's not the end of the world to like

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Speaker 3: something that maybe you should have some second thoughts about.

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Speaker 1: I don't know, Yeah, no, I know. I mean, I

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Speaker 1: guess my biggest hang up with this and not having

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Speaker 1: these guys on the PGA Tour, Like I'm gonna miss

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Speaker 1: seeing these guys play some of my favorite courses and

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Speaker 1: some of my favorite venues, you know, like seeing not

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Speaker 1: seeing John Rahm play Riviera. It's gonna hurt my heart

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Speaker 1: a little bit this year. So all right, but let's

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Speaker 1: let's get down to brass TCKs and talk about player

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Speaker 1: odds for the century. Scottie Scheffler opens as the betting

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Speaker 1: favorite at plus five point fifty to win on DraftKings.

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Speaker 1: Victor Hovland plus eight fifty, Max Homa and Colin Morikawa

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Speaker 1: are both plus twelve hundred, and Xander Schoffley, Patrick Cantley,

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Speaker 1: and Ludvig Aberg are all at plus fourteen hundred. All right,

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Speaker 1: bo I know you're a big Scottie Scheffler guy. He

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Speaker 1: is a phenomenal tee degreen player, which would seemingly make

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Speaker 1: him a great fit for this course. He finished seventh

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Speaker 1: year last year, and the only other start at Kapalua

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Speaker 1: he has had resulted in a thirteenth place finish in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty one. Is he worth backing at plus five

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Speaker 1: point fifty.

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Speaker 3: No, I wouldn't say so, just because of what I

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Speaker 3: said earlier. I'm putting a little bit more weight behind

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Speaker 3: a birdier better percentage, and that's really where he lagged

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Speaker 3: last year. That was what his poor putting brought us.

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Speaker 3: Is we're talking about probably the top five ball striking

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Speaker 3: season in the history of golf. But when you come

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Speaker 3: down to it, he's dead last in this field, er

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Speaker 3: bottom five in this field and putting and that cost

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Speaker 3: him a lot of birdies that cost him a lot

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Speaker 3: of money, a lot of wins last season, and in

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Speaker 3: a field this strong, I don't love him. At eleven

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Speaker 3: to two, that seems really steep for a guy who

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Speaker 3: doesn't measure up well with the Victor Holin's of the world,

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Speaker 3: who put much better with similar to not quite as

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Speaker 3: good ball striking, but still world class, and even even

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Speaker 3: Hovelin's odds give me pause. So at eleven to two

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Speaker 3: or plus five fifty, however you want to say it,

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Speaker 3: I think Scotty Scheffler is is a no go unless

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Speaker 3: you just absolutely believe that he's gonna pull himself back

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Speaker 3: together with the flat stick and pay off with a

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Speaker 3: large bet.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you, bo. I mean, supposedly Scotty has

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Speaker 1: worked on the putting a lot in the you know, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I know, man, like, you don't want to let ball

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Speaker 1: striking like that go to waste. And you know, apparently

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Speaker 1: in some of the fall events he was putting a

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Speaker 1: little bit better. But yeah, he's he's got a ways

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Speaker 1: to go if he wants to, you know, become as

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Speaker 1: world class a putter as he is a ball striker.

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Speaker 1: Or what about Hoveland, bo, Like, he was just phenomenal

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Speaker 1: last summer, going completely nuclear in the playoff back in August.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I can't remember many instances where I've seen

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Speaker 1: someone as hot as Victor Hoveland was like during late

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Speaker 1: July and August. But he's played this event three other times,

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Speaker 1: finishing thirty, first, thirtieth, and eighteenth. So not many signs

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Speaker 1: of life at the Plantation course, any interest in Victor

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Speaker 1: Hoveland at plus eight point fifty.

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Speaker 3: No, I really I was not impressed with his a

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Speaker 3: few appearances after the playoff where you could tell he

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Speaker 3: was kind of still languishing in that post victory hangover.

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Speaker 3: I mean, if you win fifteen million dollars, I guess

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Speaker 3: it's pretty natural for that to hecur I just think

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Speaker 3: that he's going to take a little bit longer to

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Speaker 3: get into the swing of competitive golf. That's a big

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Speaker 3: difference here is a lot of these guys like Rory

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Speaker 3: McElroy not being in this field just simply because he

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Speaker 3: doesn't he's not quite mentally prepared to start his season.

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Speaker 2: And I love Hobland.

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Speaker 3: He won me a ton of money last year writing

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Speaker 3: him through the playoffs made me so much money betting him.

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Speaker 2: It was exciting for everyone involved.

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Speaker 3: But this is not the tournament where I'm going to

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Speaker 3: be betting him less than ten to one odds. It's

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Speaker 3: just not worth it, especially with how good this field is.

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Speaker 3: This is one of the deepest invitational fields you're going

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Speaker 3: to find on the PGA Tour, and the course is

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Speaker 3: specially built for neutralizing the advantages of Victor. Hoblind has

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Speaker 3: on difficult courses. Victor Hobland is the guy you want

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Speaker 3: to bet at plus eight fifty at Augusta National or

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Speaker 3: at Riviera, where like you're going to see guys grinding

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Speaker 3: to make pars. When we saw him in the playoff,

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Speaker 3: the conditions were brutal, and he made it look easy.

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Speaker 3: When the conditions are easy, it's easy for everyone. I

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00:17:02,520 --> 00:17:05,920
Speaker 3: don't love Victor Hovlind at those odds when everybody's dealing

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Speaker 3: with a pretty pretty decent chance to go twenty five

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Speaker 3: to thirty under par.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, some really good points. I'm with you. I'm not

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00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:19,199
Speaker 1: that interested in betting the Norwegian in Hawaii here. So

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00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:22,320
Speaker 1: what about some of the other guys. What about some

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00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:26,679
Speaker 1: of the other guys with shorter odds, the aforementioned Max Homa,

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Speaker 1: Colin Morikawa, Xander Schoffley, Patrick Cantlay, Ludwig aberg all either

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Speaker 1: plus twelve hundred or plus fourteen hundred. Does anyone in

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Speaker 1: that group?

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00:17:37,320 --> 00:17:37,720
Speaker 2: Interesting?

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00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:41,119
Speaker 3: Yeah? I love Patrick Cantlay at twelve to one. That

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00:17:41,600 --> 00:17:45,399
Speaker 3: this this field is built for Patrick Cantlay to just

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Speaker 3: fly under the radar. He's a great ball striker, he's

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Speaker 3: even better at making birdie putts. And that's that's what

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Speaker 3: I can see him minimizing mistakes. You're not going to

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Speaker 3: see Patrick Cantlay three put mini birdie opportunity and turned

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Speaker 3: birdies into bogies. He's not going to be grinding for

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Speaker 3: pars when everybody else is.

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Speaker 2: This is for me.

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Speaker 3: Can't Lay and Morikawa are my two favorites here for

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Speaker 3: the simple fact that Maricawa's ball striking combined with how

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Speaker 3: hot he looked the last time we saw him, and

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Speaker 3: Patrick Can'tley is just he's as good as it gets.

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Speaker 3: He's consistent every single time we see him play. When

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00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:27,000
Speaker 3: he doesn't win, he's always right there to have a

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00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:30,520
Speaker 3: chance to win. So those two guys at the top

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Speaker 3: of the board for me, with a little bit of

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Speaker 3: preference to Patrick Can'tley and.

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Speaker 1: He concerns it all that can't Lay. I don't think

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Speaker 1: he played in any of the fall events right just

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Speaker 1: got married. Has he done much at all since the

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Speaker 1: Ryder cop and do you care?

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Speaker 3: I don't care in the slightest. The fall season's kind

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Speaker 3: of a joke anyway. The courses are so easy, the

330
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Speaker 3: fields are so easy, So.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I call him.

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Speaker 3: Marikawa won his last appearance going away, but he was

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00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:04,000
Speaker 3: the class of that field from the beginning, and we

334
00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:07,520
Speaker 3: obviously cashed in there because it's so obvious. But can't

335
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Speaker 3: Lay taking the time off. He's the type of guy

336
00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:12,640
Speaker 3: you could just picture rolling out of bed, not even

337
00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:15,520
Speaker 3: doing his hairy just brush his teeth real quick, hit

338
00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:17,840
Speaker 3: the first tea with no warm up, and shoot a

339
00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:22,280
Speaker 3: sixty five. And so I have no qualms about playing

340
00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:25,240
Speaker 3: and putting money behind Patrick Can'tley because he's not the

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00:19:25,280 --> 00:19:27,520
Speaker 3: type of guy that needs a lot of lead up.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you are getting me interested in can't Ley. I

343
00:19:30,640 --> 00:19:33,600
Speaker 1: really like the other guy at plus twelve hundred, Marikawa,

344
00:19:33,800 --> 00:19:37,320
Speaker 1: just because he is, I mean, like such an elite

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Speaker 1: ball striker, maybe the best Irons player in the game,

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00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:47,960
Speaker 1: and the history on this course, like he loves this course, seventh, seventh, fifth,

347
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Speaker 1: and second. He's basically done everything but win here. So yeah,

348
00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:55,720
Speaker 1: scoring average on this course is sixty eight point one,

349
00:19:56,400 --> 00:20:02,359
Speaker 1: second best over the last five years. I really like him. Yeah,

350
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Speaker 1: before we get to some of the guys with slightly

351
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Speaker 1: longer odds, I would encourage all of you out there

352
00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:12,480
Speaker 1: to download the Betting pros app for iOS and Android,

353
00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:15,159
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354
00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:19,400
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355
00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:23,760
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356
00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:28,840
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357
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358
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359
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360
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Speaker 1: slash apps or search Betting Pros in the app store.

361
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Speaker 1: All right, bo, guys in the plus twenty two hundred

362
00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:54,080
Speaker 1: two plus thirty five hundred range, there's some interesting names here.

363
00:20:54,800 --> 00:21:01,480
Speaker 1: Jordan Speith, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Tony Fenow, Tommy Fleetwood, Sung JM,

364
00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:04,600
Speaker 1: Ricky Fowler, anyone you like in this range.

365
00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:09,160
Speaker 3: So I was hoping to see Ludwig Obeg in this group,

366
00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:12,560
Speaker 3: but he's a shorter odds. I think he's he's trending

367
00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:15,400
Speaker 3: at fourteen hundred right this very moment, but that's down

368
00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:20,439
Speaker 3: from twelve. Tommy Fleetwood is the guy that I'm really

369
00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:23,440
Speaker 3: honing in on because of his ability to just put

370
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Speaker 3: together a crazy low round, especially if the winds freshen

371
00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:31,000
Speaker 3: up a bit there, Like if we get that Thursday

372
00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:35,280
Speaker 3: through Sunday trade winds blowing something fifteen to twenty mile

373
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Speaker 3: an hour constant, which it's very liable to do in Maui.

374
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Speaker 3: It's we're talking to it's an island in the middle

375
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Speaker 3: of the Pacific Ocean.

376
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Speaker 2: There.

377
00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:45,639
Speaker 3: It's at the mercy of pretty much every squall that

378
00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:49,640
Speaker 3: could blow through there, especially right now where all the

379
00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:52,119
Speaker 3: there's a lot of weather patterns setting up in the Pacific,

380
00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:56,320
Speaker 3: and we're probably gonna get some weather here. Tommy Fleetwood

381
00:21:56,320 --> 00:22:00,000
Speaker 3: and weather on a course that's gonna kind of neutralize distance.

382
00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:03,919
Speaker 3: I really like how he lines up, both in my

383
00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:09,440
Speaker 3: statistical model and just fitting the course. So where I

384
00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:11,959
Speaker 3: don't like the odds on Obert, even though he's one

385
00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:14,919
Speaker 3: of my favorite golfers coming up this season, I'm going

386
00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:16,560
Speaker 3: to predict him to win a lot of tournaments.

387
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Speaker 2: He's just too short for this field.

388
00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:24,480
Speaker 3: Tommy Fleewood, A twenty eight to one is fantastic odds

389
00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:27,120
Speaker 3: for how well I think he matches up here.

390
00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:30,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, oh Berg. The other thing, like first timers not

391
00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:35,960
Speaker 1: traditionally strong track records at this turn whatever reason.

392
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Speaker 3: It's kind of strange, but it lines up where first

393
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:42,439
Speaker 3: timers here just don't compete for the title.

394
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Speaker 1: Yeah, it just seems like you need to get your

395
00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:50,200
Speaker 1: get the lay of the land at this place. It's

396
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:54,480
Speaker 1: definitely a different kind of golf, and like it seems

397
00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:56,520
Speaker 1: like you have to adapt to it a little bit.

398
00:22:57,440 --> 00:23:01,320
Speaker 1: What about some of the long shots bore anyone you fancy?

399
00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:04,840
Speaker 3: Further down the list, there's a couple that I'll be

400
00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:09,560
Speaker 3: laying smaller bets on you get down to forty five

401
00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:12,439
Speaker 3: to one. Wyndham Clark seems to match up well with

402
00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:16,720
Speaker 3: this place because he's a long hitter with kind of

403
00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:20,639
Speaker 3: sketchy accuracy off the tee, which is kind of It's okay,

404
00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 3: it's fine by everybody here because the fairways are eighty

405
00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:26,879
Speaker 3: yards wide in some spots the greens are gigantic. So

406
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:30,480
Speaker 3: Wyndom Clark is a world class putter. He's top five

407
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:35,040
Speaker 3: in the world putting, and with his distance and not

408
00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:37,879
Speaker 3: having to worry about missing fairways here too much. I

409
00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:41,880
Speaker 3: like his upside at forty five to one, and then

410
00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 3: going down another great putter with decent off the tee

411
00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:48,919
Speaker 3: metrics that I can see winning here, Danny McCarthy at

412
00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:52,240
Speaker 3: sixty to one. Those that's about as deep as I'll

413
00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:54,760
Speaker 3: go here because of how strong the top of this

414
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Speaker 3: field is.

415
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Speaker 1: And I think McCarthy had a couple of top tens

416
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Speaker 1: in the fall events. I know, you know, we like you.

417
00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:04,640
Speaker 1: I don't put a lot into the fall events ball,

418
00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:07,359
Speaker 1: but it's not bad to get a guy like that

419
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:11,239
Speaker 1: who is kind of in good form coming into this.

420
00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:15,119
Speaker 1: And man Wyndham Clark, now you're now you're intriguing me

421
00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:17,480
Speaker 1: with a big hitter who can put it well and

422
00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:19,879
Speaker 1: like he has some pedigree to him, going to get

423
00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:23,200
Speaker 1: him at forty five to one, that that does seem

424
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:26,520
Speaker 1: like a pretty intriguing value. So yeah, kind of, So

425
00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:26,920
Speaker 1: what's a.

426
00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:29,480
Speaker 3: Lot of people compared to this, to to the elevation,

427
00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:32,719
Speaker 3: changes in the distance, compare this place to Augusta National,

428
00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:36,639
Speaker 3: obviously with lower stakes at hand. I kind of like

429
00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:40,640
Speaker 3: the comparison to the PGA Tours or the PGA Championship

430
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:46,560
Speaker 3: Course last year where we saw we saw Window win,

431
00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 3: we saw Kurt Kitty Yama one at finished fourth in

432
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:53,120
Speaker 3: that where he's he's my deep shot. I'm gonna throw

433
00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:55,000
Speaker 3: a couple of bucks on Kirkittyam at one hundred and

434
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:58,960
Speaker 3: thirty to one, just because he's a bomber suspect accuracy

435
00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:01,240
Speaker 3: off the tea again, but one of the best long

436
00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:04,800
Speaker 3: iron players in the world. And it just so happens

437
00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:07,720
Speaker 3: that they're going to seventy six hundred yards to traverse.

438
00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:09,960
Speaker 3: You're going to see some long iron approaches on a

439
00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:13,280
Speaker 3: lot of holes. And I just like that archetype of

440
00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:17,240
Speaker 3: player here, where get a hot putter. Just get a

441
00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:19,680
Speaker 3: hot putter, and that you can win this tournament. John

442
00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:22,960
Speaker 3: Ram not necessarily known for his putting, but you could

443
00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:25,480
Speaker 3: tell when he got here he got real comfortable in

444
00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:25,919
Speaker 3: a hurry.

445
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:28,760
Speaker 1: And it doesn't hurt that Kirk Kidiama is a fellow

446
00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:30,040
Speaker 1: Northern California guy.

447
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:30,239
Speaker 2: Bo.

448
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 3: I mean, my bias always shows when I pick him,

449
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:36,160
Speaker 3: but I don't pick him as often as you would think.

450
00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:39,159
Speaker 3: I picked him three times last year, and one was

451
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:41,520
Speaker 3: at bay Hill when he won at two hundred and

452
00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:44,600
Speaker 3: fifty to one. He finished fourth at the PGA when

453
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:46,760
Speaker 3: I picked him to I picked through a couple dollars

454
00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:49,480
Speaker 3: on him to win, and I ended up double dipping

455
00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:52,160
Speaker 3: at top five and top ten picks there. And then

456
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 3: I picked him in another tournament where he lined up

457
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:55,760
Speaker 3: well like that, but he missed the cut.

458
00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 2: So you don't.

459
00:25:57,160 --> 00:25:59,560
Speaker 3: Always go after these guys, even if they're from the

460
00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:04,159
Speaker 3: same home town. I love rooting for him. This is

461
00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:06,000
Speaker 3: the kind of place where, I mean the first time

462
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:09,000
Speaker 3: are you're not expecting to make any noise. But his

463
00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:11,440
Speaker 3: odds are cheap enough for you. You can just say, hey,

464
00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:13,840
Speaker 3: let's root for him. With a little like five bucks

465
00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:16,440
Speaker 3: on the line. Who cares if he wins, you get

466
00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:19,680
Speaker 3: more than a thousand dollars payoff. I just love doing

467
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:23,080
Speaker 3: those little those little dime drops in there, just to

468
00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:25,720
Speaker 3: just have some extra rooting interest.

469
00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:28,679
Speaker 1: So what is on your betting card right now? The

470
00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 1: odds have been up for less than twenty four hours.

471
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:34,919
Speaker 1: I believe on draftings. But what have you jumped on

472
00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:36,280
Speaker 1: right away?

473
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:39,600
Speaker 3: Subject to change? But I have can't lay at twelve

474
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:43,399
Speaker 3: to one. I have half a unit bet on Xander

475
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 3: Shopley at fourteen to one, but I'm gonna bet heavier

476
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:49,359
Speaker 3: on his top five I think he's a top five lock.

477
00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:53,159
Speaker 3: And then Tommy Fleetwood at twenty eight to one. Then

478
00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:55,160
Speaker 3: I'm gonna throw some Wyndham Clark.

479
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:58,400
Speaker 2: And of course my guy Kirk Kitty.

480
00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:00,920
Speaker 3: I'm one hundred and thirty to one is a quarter

481
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:04,240
Speaker 3: unit bet for me is five bucks.

482
00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:06,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I'm going to piggyback you with a

483
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:08,880
Speaker 1: little Wyndham Clark wager here.

484
00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:11,320
Speaker 3: It's a fun one because you love Bruton for the guy.

485
00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:13,159
Speaker 3: He's one of the best people out there.

486
00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:16,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, good dude, And like you said, I mean the

487
00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:21,880
Speaker 1: game seems to suit this course pretty well. I am

488
00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 1: betting Colin Morikawa plus twelve hundred not only to win,

489
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:29,960
Speaker 1: but also to finish top five at plus twe plus

490
00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:34,160
Speaker 1: two to eighty, so you know again the force Yeah

491
00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 1: four starts seven seventh, wait, seven, seven, five and two,

492
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:43,000
Speaker 1: and just the elite ball striking just fits this course

493
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:46,200
Speaker 1: so well. You know, I'm not sure the wind is

494
00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:49,160
Speaker 1: a great thing for him. If it's you know, I've

495
00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:51,800
Speaker 1: if I'm terrified by the weather report, I might pull

496
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:55,440
Speaker 1: back a little bit, But as of now, I think

497
00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:59,040
Speaker 1: I've got half a unit down on him. Jordan Speith,

498
00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:02,080
Speaker 1: I like it plus twenty two hundred bow the wide

499
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:05,879
Speaker 1: fairways helping one here he's won here, and the wide

500
00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:08,679
Speaker 1: fairways helping the gate. The biggest achilles heel in his

501
00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:12,480
Speaker 1: game the arrantee shots, which can come out at any time.

502
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:13,880
Speaker 1: Although I'm not sure if.

503
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:16,640
Speaker 3: Steith is going to be like on a cliff side.

504
00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:17,760
Speaker 2: On one of these shots.

505
00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:20,359
Speaker 3: He was like, let's tune in with Jordan Speith. Here

506
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:22,160
Speaker 3: is on the flip side, hanging on.

507
00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:23,119
Speaker 2: For dear life.

508
00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:26,440
Speaker 1: I was gonna say, I'm not sure even the Cappelloua

509
00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:28,879
Speaker 1: fairways are wide enough for Jordan Speed to stay on

510
00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:34,120
Speaker 1: them all the time. Sung jm intrigues me at plus

511
00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:38,720
Speaker 1: three thousand em has played this event three times, finishing fifth, eighth,

512
00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:42,480
Speaker 1: and thirteenth, and since twenty eighteen, no player has a

513
00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:45,880
Speaker 1: better scoring average at Capelua than Sung Jim with his

514
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:51,280
Speaker 1: sixty seven point seven stroke average and then one weird

515
00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:55,760
Speaker 1: little bet I kind of like Shamous Power at plus

516
00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:01,800
Speaker 1: ten to one to finish top ten. Power has finished

517
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:06,040
Speaker 1: fifteenth and twenty fifth in his two other appearances at Kapalua,

518
00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:09,200
Speaker 1: but with a really respectable scoring average of sixty eight

519
00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:11,560
Speaker 1: point six. I feel like ten to one is a

520
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:13,760
Speaker 1: pretty good price for a top ten, so I'm gonna

521
00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:15,680
Speaker 1: throw a lot, well half a unit down.

522
00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:18,880
Speaker 3: It's a little irishman bias going into that too.

523
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:23,160
Speaker 1: Maybe maybe, Hey, you've got Kurt Kittyama, I've got Seamus Power.

524
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:25,640
Speaker 1: What are you gonna do? And you know, like for

525
00:29:26,040 --> 00:29:28,560
Speaker 1: those of you out there who like parlays and props,

526
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:31,520
Speaker 1: just gonna throw a couple out there. I have not

527
00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 1: played any of these, but I'm intrigued by a top

528
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:39,040
Speaker 1: five parlay with Scotti, Scheffler and Colin Morikawa at plus

529
00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:41,680
Speaker 1: eight hundred, so you need both of those guys to

530
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:45,800
Speaker 1: finish top five. And another one I'm considering is a

531
00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:49,640
Speaker 1: triple chance parlay where you get three guys. One of

532
00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:53,960
Speaker 1: the three has to win with Scheffler, Morikawa and your

533
00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:58,000
Speaker 1: guy can't lay. That one is plus four point fifty,

534
00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:01,360
Speaker 1: so you get any of the three at plus four fifty.

535
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:02,280
Speaker 1: That's pretty juicy.

536
00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:05,320
Speaker 2: That's right set of odds right there.

537
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:09,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, not too bad, all right, Baul? How about a

538
00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 1: one and done pick for the people out there in

539
00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:13,640
Speaker 1: one and done pool. So we're gonna keep track of these.

540
00:30:13,640 --> 00:30:17,120
Speaker 1: We're not gonna repeat guys, use them and lose them.

541
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 1: But who do you like in a one and done

542
00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:20,040
Speaker 1: this week?

543
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 2: Oh?

544
00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:26,200
Speaker 3: I think I'll stick with Can'tley. That's because I think

545
00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:29,680
Speaker 3: that as far as this course is concerned, he's gonna

546
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:34,120
Speaker 3: have other opportunities to be a repeat guy. But again,

547
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:37,160
Speaker 3: he's so consistent that I don't mind burning him early.

548
00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:40,360
Speaker 3: It's not you're not gonna regret him coming because it's

549
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:42,280
Speaker 3: not like you have like, oh, I'm gonna wait for

550
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:46,040
Speaker 3: Detroit for to play Tony Fenow because that's smart thing

551
00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:46,440
Speaker 3: to do.

552
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 2: Is what you want to do in a one and

553
00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:49,720
Speaker 2: done is kind of line.

554
00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:52,479
Speaker 3: Up which golfers you'd like to play at every single tournament.

555
00:30:52,520 --> 00:30:55,040
Speaker 3: Just line up all the thirty six or whatever tournaments

556
00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:58,000
Speaker 3: and put a group of guys next to that event.

557
00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:02,040
Speaker 3: Patrick Cantley is not a guy that she's specifically pigeonhole

558
00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:05,040
Speaker 3: into a specific event. So I don't mind burning him

559
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:07,200
Speaker 3: right off the bat, because I know he's going to

560
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:09,400
Speaker 3: be consistent. I'm not going to be yearning for him

561
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:10,280
Speaker 3: later in the season.

562
00:31:10,840 --> 00:31:16,200
Speaker 1: Yeah. With me, I've got a guy who does play

563
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:18,720
Speaker 1: certain events pretty well, Ricky Fowler. I'm gonna go with

564
00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 1: this week, and he's he's always good in Phoenix, He's

565
00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:24,920
Speaker 1: always good. Oh man, what's the course in Charlotte. I'm

566
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:28,000
Speaker 1: blanking on the name right now. Quail Hollow. He's going

567
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 1: to a really good Quail Hollow player. But you know,

568
00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:37,040
Speaker 1: I want to take Fowler because we have seen him

569
00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 1: come completely off the rails before for a long stretch

570
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:42,520
Speaker 1: of his career. I want to get him early while

571
00:31:42,560 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 1: he's playing well, while he is still in really good form.

572
00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:48,440
Speaker 1: And oh, by the way, his last three finishes in

573
00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:54,240
Speaker 1: this event fifth, fourth, fifth, so he's traditionally fared well.

574
00:31:54,280 --> 00:31:58,680
Speaker 1: And the Strokes gained metrics at at Kapaalua. So and

575
00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:01,160
Speaker 1: I'm gonna grab him bow before things go haywire with

576
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:06,080
Speaker 1: his game. So all right, yeah, So Patrick cantleigh for

577
00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:11,040
Speaker 1: Bau McBrayer and Ricky Foller for Pat Fitzmorris. So that

578
00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:14,080
Speaker 1: is going to do it for this installment of the

579
00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:18,240
Speaker 1: Betting Pros PGA podcast. We will be back next week

580
00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:21,400
Speaker 1: to go over the Sony Open, as the tour stays

581
00:32:21,440 --> 00:32:24,600
Speaker 1: in Hawaii for one more week. And good luck to

582
00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 1: all of you this week. Enjoy those of you like

583
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:32,160
Speaker 1: me who are in the extreme upper Midwest, enjoy watching

584
00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:35,520
Speaker 1: guys play golf in short sleeves this week, because you

585
00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:38,240
Speaker 1: know it'll be us soon enough, in like five months.

586
00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:42,680
Speaker 1: So thanks again everyone, so long. We'll see you next week.

587
00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:46,000
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros Podcast. If you

588
00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:48,400
Speaker 4: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

589
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:51,840
Speaker 4: by leaving a positive review. On Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

590
00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:54,800
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591
00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:56,720
Speaker 4: Instagram at betting Pros NFL.

592
00:32:57,160 --> 00:32:58,160
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593
00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:01,080
Speaker 4: YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros