WEBVTT - Top 3 Bets for Monday | MLB Picks & Baseball Predictions

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<v Speaker 1>Good Monday morning, everybody.

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<v Speaker 2>How are you welcome into a new episode of the

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<v Speaker 2>Daily Juice podcast with me Matt Perult. You guys can

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<v Speaker 2>follow me across all of my socials at Sports Talk Matt.

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<v Speaker 2>We are here every single morning for the most part,

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<v Speaker 2>new week for us. Hopefully we ended Sunday with some

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<v Speaker 2>momentum as we get a plus one forty cash on

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<v Speaker 2>the Braves. That wasn't easy. They got there with a

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<v Speaker 2>two to one win in extras. But finally an extra

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<v Speaker 2>inning game goes my way and so we go up

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<v Speaker 2>one point four units on the day on Sunday, Still

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<v Speaker 2>a losing week for us after what happened a couple

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<v Speaker 2>of days. But let's get into a Monday and hopefully

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<v Speaker 2>we can start to turn things around a little bit

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<v Speaker 2>here as we get into the real dog days of baseball.

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<v Speaker 2>But August can sometimes be predictable, like July can be

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<v Speaker 2>very up and down because of the trade deadline and

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<v Speaker 2>because of other things the All Star break and whatnot.

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<v Speaker 2>Now we get to August and we're on to the

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<v Speaker 2>March for football, and sometimes baseball can level off and

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<v Speaker 2>baseball can be a bit more consistent and we can

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<v Speaker 2>kind of make up for what we have done this year.

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<v Speaker 2>It's weird because I'm not that far from just a

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<v Speaker 2>bet perspective. I'm almost like fifty percent. I'm a little under,

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<v Speaker 2>but I'm almost fifty percent. But I'm way down because

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<v Speaker 2>of the juice. And that's kind of the thing with

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<v Speaker 2>gambling that I want to talk about a couple of

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<v Speaker 2>things here. One for that, because you've got to realize,

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<v Speaker 2>like five hundred, you can't go five hundred. You got

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<v Speaker 2>to go it's four percent really to get over on

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<v Speaker 2>the juice, in particular, when you've been like me, where

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<v Speaker 2>I've bet like Mas one thirty mass one forty favorites

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<v Speaker 2>and then you lose that, you start stacking that and

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<v Speaker 2>that can get away from you pretty quickly. And it's

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<v Speaker 2>a big reason why you've got to be very disciplined

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<v Speaker 2>with your bank roll.

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<v Speaker 1>So your unit.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, people always talk about unit size, right, how

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<v Speaker 2>big should my unit siye be? And I'm always saying,

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<v Speaker 2>look it, for every one hundred dollars, it should be

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<v Speaker 2>somewhere between one and three percent. Okay, for some people

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<v Speaker 2>they go three to five percent. That's fine, So I

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<v Speaker 2>land at three percent. Really is my recommendation, Like three

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<v Speaker 2>percent so for every hundred dollars you bet, you're gonna

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<v Speaker 2>bet three dollars or so every hundred dollars you have

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<v Speaker 2>in play, it's a three dollars unit.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay.

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<v Speaker 2>So that is how you stay alive. And I never

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<v Speaker 2>unit shame anybody. Three dollars is three dollars, thirty dollars

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<v Speaker 2>is thirty dollars. Three hundred dollars to three hundred dollars.

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<v Speaker 2>It's your money, right, you worked hard for it. You

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<v Speaker 2>put it out there into an entertainment space, or for

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<v Speaker 2>a bet that you like, or whatever you're gonna do.

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<v Speaker 1>Go to the movies.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, you know, I went to The Odyssey the

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<v Speaker 2>other day with my daughter and the tickets for she

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<v Speaker 2>and I. I think we paid fifty five dollars for

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<v Speaker 2>the tickets and we paid forty dollars at concessions.

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<v Speaker 1>It was a ninety.

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<v Speaker 2>It was a one hundred dollars movie trip to go

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<v Speaker 2>see an imax The Odyssey.

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<v Speaker 1>Great flick by the way, But you.

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<v Speaker 2>Know, you go and do that and people will look

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<v Speaker 2>at you and go you put how much money on

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<v Speaker 2>a game?

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<v Speaker 1>And you're like, well, you went to the movies.

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<v Speaker 2>What's the difference, right, Like You're gonna go play and

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<v Speaker 2>go to the movies and put one hundred dollars down,

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<v Speaker 2>you know for a three hour, four hour experience, or

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<v Speaker 2>I'm gonna watch a baseball game for two and a

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<v Speaker 2>half hours and put one hundred dollars down on that.

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<v Speaker 1>What's the difference?

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<v Speaker 2>So that that's always my pushback when people talk about

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<v Speaker 2>you know, sports gambling and like, you know, what are

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<v Speaker 2>you doing? It's Entertainment's entertainment. How I choose to spend

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<v Speaker 2>my time entertainment. I'm not judging, you don't judge me.

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<v Speaker 2>So and that's always like, I don't know if it's

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<v Speaker 2>because I'm back in New England and New England has

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<v Speaker 2>a very different opinion of gambling than say Las Vegas obviously,

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<v Speaker 2>and so it's fun to have those conversations with people

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<v Speaker 2>who are new to the gambling space or don't know

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<v Speaker 2>what I do and they kind of get like their

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<v Speaker 2>feathers all ruffled and like you do what? And it's

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<v Speaker 2>great to have that conversation because it's like, hey, this

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<v Speaker 2>is you could make a living do that. Yeah, you're

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<v Speaker 2>a content what. So it's all a lot of fun.

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<v Speaker 2>But I bring this up to kind of point out

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<v Speaker 2>the home run what do you want to call it,

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<v Speaker 2>cheat sheet tool, whatever you want to call the home

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<v Speaker 2>run tool. I saw some people getting upset saying the

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<v Speaker 2>home run tool hasn't been cashing for them. Okay, look

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<v Speaker 2>at if you want to go to this, we have

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<v Speaker 2>it available right now bettingpros dot Com slash Homers. You

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<v Speaker 2>guys can go and check out this prop bet cheat sheet.

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<v Speaker 2>You guys can go ahead and go and find what

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<v Speaker 2>it could look like for you. But I want to

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<v Speaker 2>bring it up because of the fact that when we

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<v Speaker 2>did the live stream, we talked about unit size. When

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<v Speaker 2>it came to when and how to bet with the

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<v Speaker 2>home run prop at cheat sheet, you should not be

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<v Speaker 2>betting full units on this, Okay. If you're betting full

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<v Speaker 2>units on this, yes, it could go down quickly and

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<v Speaker 2>you could get yourself into trouble.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay.

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<v Speaker 2>I think people get a little bit of namored the

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<v Speaker 2>same way they do with parlays. They start five to one,

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<v Speaker 2>six to one, seven to one, and they start getting

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<v Speaker 2>all crazy about, oh my god, this is gonna be amazing.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm gonna hit so many bets. If one out of

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<v Speaker 2>ten bets are cashing on the home run cheat sheet

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<v Speaker 2>on the home run props.

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<v Speaker 1>That's not really a bad thing.

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<v Speaker 2>It depends upon the odds, right, But eight to one,

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<v Speaker 2>nine to one, okay. If you bet eight times and

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<v Speaker 2>it's an eight to one play and you cash it once,

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<v Speaker 2>you're flat, Okay, this is not going to be in

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<v Speaker 2>my opinion, this is not going to be an instant

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<v Speaker 2>moneymaker for anyone. Okay, home run betting, it's extremely volatile.

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<v Speaker 2>It's extremely volatile. You can go in one week if

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<v Speaker 2>you make twenty bets. In one week, you could hit

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<v Speaker 2>four and the next week you hit zero. But you

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<v Speaker 2>should be betting quarter units on this, Okay, this should not

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<v Speaker 2>be like your main focus.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm gonna go heavy into home run props.

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<v Speaker 2>It is a you know, in a lot of ways,

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<v Speaker 2>it's equivalent to some of the other longer shot bets

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<v Speaker 2>that are there in the casino. Okay, that's home home

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<v Speaker 2>run betting to me is a lot of feast in famine.

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<v Speaker 2>So we have it available. Check it out. But if

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<v Speaker 2>you're going one for sixteen, you know in your betting

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<v Speaker 2>full units.

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<v Speaker 1>Don't do that.

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<v Speaker 2>That's not what this is. Okay, home run betting is fun.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm not debating it. It's way and when it cashes,

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<v Speaker 2>it's awesome, but it's it's a scratch ticket type of thing. Right,

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<v Speaker 2>you can do you can do a lot of you know,

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<v Speaker 2>research and look at it. But the ball's got to

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<v Speaker 2>hit a round ball. It's got to hit a round bat.

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<v Speaker 2>It's got to travel three hundred and fifty plus feet

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<v Speaker 2>out of the ballpark. Okay, A million things can stop

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<v Speaker 2>the ball from leaving the ballpark, right, it gets pulled,

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<v Speaker 2>a guy catches it, the launch angle is wrong. It's

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<v Speaker 2>a rocket, but it's too low. Like there's a million

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<v Speaker 2>things to go into it. So just be just be careful, Okay,

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<v Speaker 2>when it comes to that, just just be careful. Okay,

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<v Speaker 2>all right, let's talk about the plays coming up here

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<v Speaker 2>for today.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's start with the Orioles.

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<v Speaker 2>And we've been on this Trevor Rodgers kick for a while.

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<v Speaker 2>Bet him the last time against the Angels a five

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<v Speaker 2>to two win, he beat the Tigers, or the team

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<v Speaker 2>beat the Tigers ten to nine. But if you go

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<v Speaker 2>back to the twentieth of June, Trevor Rodgers has won

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<v Speaker 2>seven of the last eight starts for the Baltimore Orioles.

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<v Speaker 2>The Orioles today are on the road against the Twins.

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<v Speaker 2>The Orioles aren't a great road team the twenty five

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<v Speaker 2>and thirty one, but they're facing up against Dean Kremer,

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<v Speaker 2>who is their former player who they traded at the

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<v Speaker 2>trade deadline to Minnesota Rodgers. On the road this year

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<v Speaker 2>as a four point zero three ERA, a three to

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<v Speaker 2>two mark, opposing batting average of two forty four, twenty

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<v Speaker 2>earn runs in forty four and two thirds innings worth

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<v Speaker 2>of work, but the team does well when he's on

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<v Speaker 2>the mound, and Dean Kremer is a pitcher that obviously

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<v Speaker 2>the team's going to know. He went to the All

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<v Speaker 2>Star to the trade deadline and losing his last three

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<v Speaker 2>and for of his last five starts for the Orioles,

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<v Speaker 2>so getting anything for him was pretty impressive. Kind of

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<v Speaker 2>a pot on the season for the Orioles by trading

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<v Speaker 2>away Dean Kremer. He's one and four with a five

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<v Speaker 2>point nine to three ERA. His stats don't really matter

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<v Speaker 2>all that much, but at home he was one in

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<v Speaker 2>one with a three point nine for ERA. But now

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<v Speaker 2>he's pitching for the first time for the Twins, making

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<v Speaker 2>his debut for Minnesota. Team has lost back to back

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<v Speaker 2>games that they lost two of three to the Brewers

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<v Speaker 2>four to three, both games over the weekend to Milwaukee.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm gonna come in here and just keep on taking

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<v Speaker 2>our guy and go ahead and bet our guy Trevor Rodgers,

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<v Speaker 2>who continues to be a hot pitcher for the Orioles.

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<v Speaker 2>Orioles money line at my as one fourteen for one

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<v Speaker 2>point one four units. I mentioned the Brewers. We're gonna

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<v Speaker 2>go ahead and jump in on the Brewers. Logan Henderson

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<v Speaker 2>the pitcher. He is a guy.

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<v Speaker 1>Now.

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<v Speaker 2>When we were talking about Kyle Harrison, we bet him

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<v Speaker 2>a bunch of the first half. Logan Henderson might be

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<v Speaker 2>our guy here for a little bit. Logan Henderson in

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<v Speaker 2>the month of July didn't lose a game he started.

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<v Speaker 2>He went four to oh. In August, he's one to oh.

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<v Speaker 2>He went three and one in June. So three and one,

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<v Speaker 2>four and oh, one and oh. Here for Logan Henderson

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<v Speaker 2>six and one with a two point seven e alight

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<v Speaker 2>on the road era of three three in run three

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<v Speaker 2>and one mark posting batting average of one ninety three.

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<v Speaker 2>He is scarily similar for home in road as to

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<v Speaker 2>what his splits are twenty six innings at home, twenty

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<v Speaker 2>four innings on the road, He's allowed eighteen hits at home,

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<v Speaker 2>seventeen hits on the road. He's allowed seven earned runs

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<v Speaker 2>at home, eight earn runs on the road. He's giving

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<v Speaker 2>up a bunch more home runs at home six to

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<v Speaker 2>one there, but posing batting averages one ninety four to

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<v Speaker 2>one ninety three, So it doesn't really matter where Logan

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<v Speaker 2>Henderson has pitched this year for the Milwaukee Brewers, He's

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<v Speaker 2>been consistent. He's gonna go five or six innings ERA

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<v Speaker 2>of two point five, seven in July, ERA of three

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<v Speaker 2>in the month of August.

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<v Speaker 1>Like I mentioned, are hot. They won.

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<v Speaker 2>They've won five out of the last six games here,

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<v Speaker 2>taking two of three against the Twins, and they took

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<v Speaker 2>three or four from the Pirates. They're on the road

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<v Speaker 2>against the Padres and Casey Mize, who's making his first

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<v Speaker 2>start since coming over from the Tigers. So another guy

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<v Speaker 2>where we're going to fade his first start with a

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<v Speaker 2>new team because all the numbers are kind of out

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<v Speaker 2>of whack. But he did enter into the trade deadline.

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<v Speaker 2>I get sorry. Is his home debut. He pitched once

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<v Speaker 2>on the road already three and a third, give up

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<v Speaker 2>nine hits, eight earned runs, against the Arizona Diamonbacks.

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<v Speaker 1>Not good for Casey Mice.

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<v Speaker 2>This is his home opener here, ten to four loss

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<v Speaker 2>against the Diamondbacks in his first start. I think he

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<v Speaker 2>gets hit pretty hard here again by the Brewers. I

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<v Speaker 2>like Milwaukee. I bet Milwaukee here on the money line

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<v Speaker 2>and minus one fifteen for one point one five units.

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<v Speaker 2>The Daily Juice podcast is being brought to you by

0:10:56.640 --> 0:10:59.439
<v Speaker 2>our friends at hard Rock Bet. They have been talking

0:10:59.440 --> 0:11:02.440
<v Speaker 2>about this all August long, but they are offering the

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<v Speaker 2>hottest odds in baseball right now. It's the ten cent

0:11:06.880 --> 0:11:10.880
<v Speaker 2>summer sale at hard Rock Bet, the Big the Juice,

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<v Speaker 2>whatever you caught it, call it. They're cutting down on

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<v Speaker 2>the cost of winners spreads and over under pregame baseball

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<v Speaker 2>bets the same bets, just at better odds at hard

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<v Speaker 2>Rock Bet right now. Hard Rock Bet is Florida's only

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<v Speaker 2>legal sports book, but you don't have to be in Florida.

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<v Speaker 1>Did you join the party?

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<v Speaker 2>Hard Rock Bets also live in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, Colorado,

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<v Speaker 2>and Michigan. More starts states are on the way, So

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<v Speaker 2>grab your bet and swing for the fences. All August

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<v Speaker 2>long during hard Rock Bets ten cent Summer sale. Download

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<v Speaker 2>the hard Rock Bet app. Today, prop we're going to

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<v Speaker 2>the prop market and we're going to target Andrew Painter. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>if you want to go ahead and bet on the

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<v Speaker 2>Phillies to lose this game today to the Cardinals, you can.

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<v Speaker 2>My problem is I don't really trust Hunter Dobbins, who's

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<v Speaker 2>on the other side. Okay, it's kind of a victim

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<v Speaker 2>type game for a reason. Hunter Dobbins is two and

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<v Speaker 2>two of a three point three six zer. But the

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<v Speaker 2>team has lost four of the last five starts with

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<v Speaker 2>Hunter Dobbins on the mound.

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<v Speaker 1>Not great.

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<v Speaker 2>Andrew Painter, however, has been a dumpster fire, or at

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<v Speaker 2>least the team has been a dumpster fire. They've lost

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<v Speaker 2>every single game, diating all the way back to May.

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<v Speaker 2>For him, he lost every game he started in the

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<v Speaker 2>month of June. The one starting made in July, he lost,

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<v Speaker 2>the one start he's made in August. He has lost. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>He's not awful. One earned run in a ten to

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<v Speaker 2>four loss, two earned runs in a six to four loss.

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<v Speaker 2>He's going to go four, five or six innings pretty much,

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<v Speaker 2>but he gets hit. So I think when we look

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<v Speaker 2>at him in terms of where we can go from

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<v Speaker 2>a prop market, I want to go the other side.

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<v Speaker 2>Go to the prop bit cheat sheet and take a

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<v Speaker 2>look at a player proper two and Jordan Walker of

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<v Speaker 2>the Cardinals is hot again. He has gone over in

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<v Speaker 2>six of his last seven games. He has gone over

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<v Speaker 2>one and a half hits, runs and RBIs the prop

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<v Speaker 2>bit cheat sheet is projecting this as a three three

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<v Speaker 2>hit run in RBI day for Jordan Walker. He had

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<v Speaker 2>three against Colorado yesterday. He had three against Colorado. The

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<v Speaker 2>day before at home on the road against the Yankees,

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<v Speaker 2>he had three. He had four against Toronto. He had

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<v Speaker 2>two against Toronto and then two also against Toronto. Dating

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<v Speaker 2>back to the thirty first of July, Jordan Walker has

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<v Speaker 2>been hot here and we've got a chance the a Phillies.

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<v Speaker 2>The over is hit in five straight games for the Phillies,

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<v Speaker 2>so we should expect some offense from both sides here

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<v Speaker 2>from the Cardinals and the Phillies. Don't hate to play

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<v Speaker 2>on the over either. If you want to ride the

0:13:40.120 --> 0:13:43.280
<v Speaker 2>streak with the Phillies over you know, obviously it's August,

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<v Speaker 2>it's warm in Saint Louis. But Jordan Walker at home

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<v Speaker 2>let's get him to have over one and a half

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<v Speaker 2>hits runs in RBIs. This is again a very popular

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<v Speaker 2>play for the prop bet cheat sheet. It's mine one

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<v Speaker 2>forty three Jordan Walker over one and a half hits

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<v Speaker 2>runs and RBIs on three to go along with the Brewers'

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<v Speaker 2>money line and the Orioles money line here on a Monday.

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<v Speaker 2>Coming up later on today for Pushing the odds, We're

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<v Speaker 2>going to have some fun here today talking about the Cardinals,

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<v Speaker 2>the Arizona Cardinals.

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<v Speaker 1>Are they the worst team in the NFL? Will they be?

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<v Speaker 2>I've already bet under four and a half wins, like

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<v Speaker 2>you guys know, but will break down what the Cardinals

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<v Speaker 2>are going to look like. Doug Franz, who hosts a

0:14:25.960 --> 0:14:27.960
<v Speaker 2>podcast in Phoenix, is going to join me to talk

0:14:27.960 --> 0:14:30.600
<v Speaker 2>about the Cardinals and the outlook for a new coaching

0:14:30.640 --> 0:14:34.360
<v Speaker 2>staff Jacoby Brissett or could it be someone else at

0:14:34.440 --> 0:14:37.080
<v Speaker 2>quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals. But do that Coming up

0:14:37.120 --> 0:14:41.120
<v Speaker 2>to eleven am Eastern time, eight am Pacific time live

0:14:41.160 --> 0:14:43.640
<v Speaker 2>on the YouTube channel for Pushing the odds search Opening

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<v Speaker 2>Line Media or Pushing the Odds on YouTube x.

0:14:46.880 --> 0:14:48.680
<v Speaker 1>It's at Pushing the Odds.

0:14:48.400 --> 0:14:50.240
<v Speaker 2>Minus Matt parolog You guys can follow me across all

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<v Speaker 2>of my socials at sports Doc Matt every morning wherever

0:14:52.920 --> 0:14:54.160
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<v Speaker 1>It is the daily

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<v Speaker 2>Juice, Present, Presentment and Descent, Present de center