Speaker 1: Good Monday morning, everybody.
Speaker 2: How are you welcome into a new episode of the
Speaker 2: Daily Juice podcast with me Matt Perult. You guys can
Speaker 2: follow me across all of my socials at Sports Talk Matt.
Speaker 2: We are here every single morning for the most part,
Speaker 2: new week for us. Hopefully we ended Sunday with some
Speaker 2: momentum as we get a plus one forty cash on
Speaker 2: the Braves. That wasn't easy. They got there with a
Speaker 2: two to one win in extras. But finally an extra
Speaker 2: inning game goes my way and so we go up
Speaker 2: one point four units on the day on Sunday, Still
Speaker 2: a losing week for us after what happened a couple
Speaker 2: of days. But let's get into a Monday and hopefully
Speaker 2: we can start to turn things around a little bit
Speaker 2: here as we get into the real dog days of baseball.
Speaker 2: But August can sometimes be predictable, like July can be
Speaker 2: very up and down because of the trade deadline and
Speaker 2: because of other things the All Star break and whatnot.
Speaker 2: Now we get to August and we're on to the
Speaker 2: March for football, and sometimes baseball can level off and
Speaker 2: baseball can be a bit more consistent and we can
Speaker 2: kind of make up for what we have done this year.
Speaker 2: It's weird because I'm not that far from just a
Speaker 2: bet perspective. I'm almost like fifty percent. I'm a little under,
Speaker 2: but I'm almost fifty percent. But I'm way down because
Speaker 2: of the juice. And that's kind of the thing with
Speaker 2: gambling that I want to talk about a couple of
Speaker 2: things here. One for that, because you've got to realize,
Speaker 2: like five hundred, you can't go five hundred. You got
Speaker 2: to go it's four percent really to get over on
Speaker 2: the juice, in particular, when you've been like me, where
Speaker 2: I've bet like Mas one thirty mass one forty favorites
Speaker 2: and then you lose that, you start stacking that and
Speaker 2: that can get away from you pretty quickly. And it's
Speaker 2: a big reason why you've got to be very disciplined
Speaker 2: with your bank roll.
Speaker 1: So your unit.
Speaker 2: You know, people always talk about unit size, right, how
Speaker 2: big should my unit siye be? And I'm always saying,
Speaker 2: look it, for every one hundred dollars, it should be
Speaker 2: somewhere between one and three percent. Okay, for some people
Speaker 2: they go three to five percent. That's fine, So I
Speaker 2: land at three percent. Really is my recommendation, Like three
Speaker 2: percent so for every hundred dollars you bet, you're gonna
Speaker 2: bet three dollars or so every hundred dollars you have
Speaker 2: in play, it's a three dollars unit.
Speaker 1: Okay.
Speaker 2: So that is how you stay alive. And I never
Speaker 2: unit shame anybody. Three dollars is three dollars, thirty dollars
Speaker 2: is thirty dollars. Three hundred dollars to three hundred dollars.
Speaker 2: It's your money, right, you worked hard for it. You
Speaker 2: put it out there into an entertainment space, or for
Speaker 2: a bet that you like, or whatever you're gonna do.
Speaker 1: Go to the movies.
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, I went to The Odyssey the
Speaker 2: other day with my daughter and the tickets for she
Speaker 2: and I. I think we paid fifty five dollars for
Speaker 2: the tickets and we paid forty dollars at concessions.
Speaker 1: It was a ninety.
Speaker 2: It was a one hundred dollars movie trip to go
Speaker 2: see an imax The Odyssey.
Speaker 1: Great flick by the way, But you.
Speaker 2: Know, you go and do that and people will look
Speaker 2: at you and go you put how much money on
Speaker 2: a game?
Speaker 1: And you're like, well, you went to the movies.
Speaker 2: What's the difference, right, Like You're gonna go play and
Speaker 2: go to the movies and put one hundred dollars down,
Speaker 2: you know for a three hour, four hour experience, or
Speaker 2: I'm gonna watch a baseball game for two and a
Speaker 2: half hours and put one hundred dollars down on that.
Speaker 1: What's the difference?
Speaker 2: So that that's always my pushback when people talk about
Speaker 2: you know, sports gambling and like, you know, what are
Speaker 2: you doing? It's Entertainment's entertainment. How I choose to spend
Speaker 2: my time entertainment. I'm not judging, you don't judge me.
Speaker 2: So and that's always like, I don't know if it's
Speaker 2: because I'm back in New England and New England has
Speaker 2: a very different opinion of gambling than say Las Vegas obviously,
Speaker 2: and so it's fun to have those conversations with people
Speaker 2: who are new to the gambling space or don't know
Speaker 2: what I do and they kind of get like their
Speaker 2: feathers all ruffled and like you do what? And it's
Speaker 2: great to have that conversation because it's like, hey, this
Speaker 2: is you could make a living do that. Yeah, you're
Speaker 2: a content what. So it's all a lot of fun.
Speaker 2: But I bring this up to kind of point out
Speaker 2: the home run what do you want to call it,
Speaker 2: cheat sheet tool, whatever you want to call the home
Speaker 2: run tool. I saw some people getting upset saying the
Speaker 2: home run tool hasn't been cashing for them. Okay, look
Speaker 2: at if you want to go to this, we have
Speaker 2: it available right now bettingpros dot Com slash Homers. You
Speaker 2: guys can go and check out this prop bet cheat sheet.
Speaker 2: You guys can go ahead and go and find what
Speaker 2: it could look like for you. But I want to
Speaker 2: bring it up because of the fact that when we
Speaker 2: did the live stream, we talked about unit size. When
Speaker 2: it came to when and how to bet with the
Speaker 2: home run prop at cheat sheet, you should not be
Speaker 2: betting full units on this, Okay. If you're betting full
Speaker 2: units on this, yes, it could go down quickly and
Speaker 2: you could get yourself into trouble.
Speaker 1: Okay.
Speaker 2: I think people get a little bit of namored the
Speaker 2: same way they do with parlays. They start five to one,
Speaker 2: six to one, seven to one, and they start getting
Speaker 2: all crazy about, oh my god, this is gonna be amazing.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna hit so many bets. If one out of
Speaker 2: ten bets are cashing on the home run cheat sheet
Speaker 2: on the home run props.
Speaker 1: That's not really a bad thing.
Speaker 2: It depends upon the odds, right, But eight to one,
Speaker 2: nine to one, okay. If you bet eight times and
Speaker 2: it's an eight to one play and you cash it once,
Speaker 2: you're flat, Okay, this is not going to be in
Speaker 2: my opinion, this is not going to be an instant
Speaker 2: moneymaker for anyone. Okay, home run betting, it's extremely volatile.
Speaker 2: It's extremely volatile. You can go in one week if
Speaker 2: you make twenty bets. In one week, you could hit
Speaker 2: four and the next week you hit zero. But you
Speaker 2: should be betting quarter units on this, Okay, this should not
Speaker 2: be like your main focus.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go heavy into home run props.
Speaker 2: It is a you know, in a lot of ways,
Speaker 2: it's equivalent to some of the other longer shot bets
Speaker 2: that are there in the casino. Okay, that's home home
Speaker 2: run betting to me is a lot of feast in famine.
Speaker 2: So we have it available. Check it out. But if
Speaker 2: you're going one for sixteen, you know in your betting
Speaker 2: full units.
Speaker 1: Don't do that.
Speaker 2: That's not what this is. Okay, home run betting is fun.
Speaker 2: I'm not debating it. It's way and when it cashes,
Speaker 2: it's awesome, but it's it's a scratch ticket type of thing. Right,
Speaker 2: you can do you can do a lot of you know,
Speaker 2: research and look at it. But the ball's got to
Speaker 2: hit a round ball. It's got to hit a round bat.
Speaker 2: It's got to travel three hundred and fifty plus feet
Speaker 2: out of the ballpark. Okay, A million things can stop
Speaker 2: the ball from leaving the ballpark, right, it gets pulled,
Speaker 2: a guy catches it, the launch angle is wrong. It's
Speaker 2: a rocket, but it's too low. Like there's a million
Speaker 2: things to go into it. So just be just be careful, Okay,
Speaker 2: when it comes to that, just just be careful. Okay,
Speaker 2: all right, let's talk about the plays coming up here
Speaker 2: for today.
Speaker 1: Let's start with the Orioles.
Speaker 2: And we've been on this Trevor Rodgers kick for a while.
Speaker 2: Bet him the last time against the Angels a five
Speaker 2: to two win, he beat the Tigers, or the team
Speaker 2: beat the Tigers ten to nine. But if you go
Speaker 2: back to the twentieth of June, Trevor Rodgers has won
Speaker 2: seven of the last eight starts for the Baltimore Orioles.
Speaker 2: The Orioles today are on the road against the Twins.
Speaker 2: The Orioles aren't a great road team the twenty five
Speaker 2: and thirty one, but they're facing up against Dean Kremer,
Speaker 2: who is their former player who they traded at the
Speaker 2: trade deadline to Minnesota Rodgers. On the road this year
Speaker 2: as a four point zero three ERA, a three to
Speaker 2: two mark, opposing batting average of two forty four, twenty
Speaker 2: earn runs in forty four and two thirds innings worth
Speaker 2: of work, but the team does well when he's on
Speaker 2: the mound, and Dean Kremer is a pitcher that obviously
Speaker 2: the team's going to know. He went to the All
Speaker 2: Star to the trade deadline and losing his last three
Speaker 2: and for of his last five starts for the Orioles,
Speaker 2: so getting anything for him was pretty impressive. Kind of
Speaker 2: a pot on the season for the Orioles by trading
Speaker 2: away Dean Kremer. He's one and four with a five
Speaker 2: point nine to three ERA. His stats don't really matter
Speaker 2: all that much, but at home he was one in
Speaker 2: one with a three point nine for ERA. But now
Speaker 2: he's pitching for the first time for the Twins, making
Speaker 2: his debut for Minnesota. Team has lost back to back
Speaker 2: games that they lost two of three to the Brewers
Speaker 2: four to three, both games over the weekend to Milwaukee.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna come in here and just keep on taking
Speaker 2: our guy and go ahead and bet our guy Trevor Rodgers,
Speaker 2: who continues to be a hot pitcher for the Orioles.
Speaker 2: Orioles money line at my as one fourteen for one
Speaker 2: point one four units. I mentioned the Brewers. We're gonna
Speaker 2: go ahead and jump in on the Brewers. Logan Henderson
Speaker 2: the pitcher. He is a guy.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 2: When we were talking about Kyle Harrison, we bet him
Speaker 2: a bunch of the first half. Logan Henderson might be
Speaker 2: our guy here for a little bit. Logan Henderson in
Speaker 2: the month of July didn't lose a game he started.
Speaker 2: He went four to oh. In August, he's one to oh.
Speaker 2: He went three and one in June. So three and one,
Speaker 2: four and oh, one and oh. Here for Logan Henderson
Speaker 2: six and one with a two point seven e alight
Speaker 2: on the road era of three three in run three
Speaker 2: and one mark posting batting average of one ninety three.
Speaker 2: He is scarily similar for home in road as to
Speaker 2: what his splits are twenty six innings at home, twenty
Speaker 2: four innings on the road, He's allowed eighteen hits at home,
Speaker 2: seventeen hits on the road. He's allowed seven earned runs
Speaker 2: at home, eight earn runs on the road. He's giving
Speaker 2: up a bunch more home runs at home six to
Speaker 2: one there, but posing batting averages one ninety four to
Speaker 2: one ninety three, So it doesn't really matter where Logan
Speaker 2: Henderson has pitched this year for the Milwaukee Brewers, He's
Speaker 2: been consistent. He's gonna go five or six innings ERA
Speaker 2: of two point five, seven in July, ERA of three
Speaker 2: in the month of August.
Speaker 1: Like I mentioned, are hot. They won.
Speaker 2: They've won five out of the last six games here,
Speaker 2: taking two of three against the Twins, and they took
Speaker 2: three or four from the Pirates. They're on the road
Speaker 2: against the Padres and Casey Mize, who's making his first
Speaker 2: start since coming over from the Tigers. So another guy
Speaker 2: where we're going to fade his first start with a
Speaker 2: new team because all the numbers are kind of out
Speaker 2: of whack. But he did enter into the trade deadline.
Speaker 2: I get sorry. Is his home debut. He pitched once
Speaker 2: on the road already three and a third, give up
Speaker 2: nine hits, eight earned runs, against the Arizona Diamonbacks.
Speaker 1: Not good for Casey Mice.
Speaker 2: This is his home opener here, ten to four loss
Speaker 2: against the Diamondbacks in his first start. I think he
Speaker 2: gets hit pretty hard here again by the Brewers. I
Speaker 2: like Milwaukee. I bet Milwaukee here on the money line
Speaker 2: and minus one fifteen for one point one five units.
Speaker 2: The Daily Juice podcast is being brought to you by
Speaker 2: our friends at hard Rock Bet. They have been talking
Speaker 2: about this all August long, but they are offering the
Speaker 2: hottest odds in baseball right now. It's the ten cent
Speaker 2: summer sale at hard Rock Bet, the Big the Juice,
Speaker 2: whatever you caught it, call it. They're cutting down on
Speaker 2: the cost of winners spreads and over under pregame baseball
Speaker 2: bets the same bets, just at better odds at hard
Speaker 2: Rock Bet right now. Hard Rock Bet is Florida's only
Speaker 2: legal sports book, but you don't have to be in Florida.
Speaker 1: Did you join the party?
Speaker 2: Hard Rock Bets also live in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, Colorado,
Speaker 2: and Michigan. More starts states are on the way, So
Speaker 2: grab your bet and swing for the fences. All August
Speaker 2: long during hard Rock Bets ten cent Summer sale. Download
Speaker 2: the hard Rock Bet app. Today, prop we're going to
Speaker 2: the prop market and we're going to target Andrew Painter. Now,
Speaker 2: if you want to go ahead and bet on the
Speaker 2: Phillies to lose this game today to the Cardinals, you can.
Speaker 2: My problem is I don't really trust Hunter Dobbins, who's
Speaker 2: on the other side. Okay, it's kind of a victim
Speaker 2: type game for a reason. Hunter Dobbins is two and
Speaker 2: two of a three point three six zer. But the
Speaker 2: team has lost four of the last five starts with
Speaker 2: Hunter Dobbins on the mound.
Speaker 1: Not great.
Speaker 2: Andrew Painter, however, has been a dumpster fire, or at
Speaker 2: least the team has been a dumpster fire. They've lost
Speaker 2: every single game, diating all the way back to May.
Speaker 2: For him, he lost every game he started in the
Speaker 2: month of June. The one starting made in July, he lost,
Speaker 2: the one start he's made in August. He has lost. Now,
Speaker 2: He's not awful. One earned run in a ten to
Speaker 2: four loss, two earned runs in a six to four loss.
Speaker 2: He's going to go four, five or six innings pretty much,
Speaker 2: but he gets hit. So I think when we look
Speaker 2: at him in terms of where we can go from
Speaker 2: a prop market, I want to go the other side.
Speaker 2: Go to the prop bit cheat sheet and take a
Speaker 2: look at a player proper two and Jordan Walker of
Speaker 2: the Cardinals is hot again. He has gone over in
Speaker 2: six of his last seven games. He has gone over
Speaker 2: one and a half hits, runs and RBIs the prop
Speaker 2: bit cheat sheet is projecting this as a three three
Speaker 2: hit run in RBI day for Jordan Walker. He had
Speaker 2: three against Colorado yesterday. He had three against Colorado. The
Speaker 2: day before at home on the road against the Yankees,
Speaker 2: he had three. He had four against Toronto. He had
Speaker 2: two against Toronto and then two also against Toronto. Dating
Speaker 2: back to the thirty first of July, Jordan Walker has
Speaker 2: been hot here and we've got a chance the a Phillies.
Speaker 2: The over is hit in five straight games for the Phillies,
Speaker 2: so we should expect some offense from both sides here
Speaker 2: from the Cardinals and the Phillies. Don't hate to play
Speaker 2: on the over either. If you want to ride the
Speaker 2: streak with the Phillies over you know, obviously it's August,
Speaker 2: it's warm in Saint Louis. But Jordan Walker at home
Speaker 2: let's get him to have over one and a half
Speaker 2: hits runs in RBIs. This is again a very popular
Speaker 2: play for the prop bet cheat sheet. It's mine one
Speaker 2: forty three Jordan Walker over one and a half hits
Speaker 2: runs and RBIs on three to go along with the Brewers'
Speaker 2: money line and the Orioles money line here on a Monday.
Speaker 2: Coming up later on today for Pushing the odds, We're
Speaker 2: going to have some fun here today talking about the Cardinals,
Speaker 2: the Arizona Cardinals.
Speaker 1: Are they the worst team in the NFL? Will they be?
Speaker 2: I've already bet under four and a half wins, like
Speaker 2: you guys know, but will break down what the Cardinals
Speaker 2: are going to look like. Doug Franz, who hosts a
Speaker 2: podcast in Phoenix, is going to join me to talk
Speaker 2: about the Cardinals and the outlook for a new coaching
Speaker 2: staff Jacoby Brissett or could it be someone else at
Speaker 2: quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals. But do that Coming up
Speaker 2: to eleven am Eastern time, eight am Pacific time live
Speaker 2: on the YouTube channel for Pushing the odds search Opening
Speaker 2: Line Media or Pushing the Odds on YouTube x.
Speaker 1: It's at Pushing the Odds.
Speaker 2: Minus Matt parolog You guys can follow me across all
Speaker 2: of my socials at sports Doc Matt every morning wherever
Speaker 2: you guys get your podcasts.
Speaker 1: It is the daily
Speaker 2: Juice, Present, Presentment and Descent, Present de center