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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you welcome into a New

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Speaker 1: Year's Day episode of the Daily Juice Podcast. My name

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Speaker 1: is Matt Parol. You guys are calling me because all

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Speaker 1: of my socials at Sports Talk Matt, and we are

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Speaker 1: here following a day where I don't know exactly what

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Speaker 1: we did, but we won't have a winning day officially

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Speaker 1: at least because of Alabama getting smacked. Alabama did not

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Speaker 1: show up, so the bad handicap, bad bet for me,

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Speaker 1: and Kellen de Boor has got a big old problem

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Speaker 1: on his hands. I was in Alabama for five years.

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Speaker 1: I covered the Crimson Tide when they had Mike Dubos

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Speaker 1: and Mike Shula, when they had Dennis Francioni as the

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Speaker 1: head coach, all leading up to the hiring of arguably

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Speaker 1: the greatest college football coach of all time, and Alabama

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Speaker 1: became dominant. I was there when the Tide had multiple

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Speaker 1: four and five lost seasons and how restless the fan

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Speaker 1: base got. But that was after after they went through

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Speaker 1: a somewhat of a decent run. It wasn't like it

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Speaker 1: was before, like Nick Saban, Bear Bryant is Bear Bryant.

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Speaker 1: They had some ups and downs, but they had some

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Speaker 1: coaches that still kept things going, kept the train going,

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Speaker 1: if you will. There wasn't a nineteen ninety two still

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Speaker 1: happened for Alabama. That isn't happening right now. For the

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Speaker 1: Crimson Tide. That was not a good performance for Alabama.

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Speaker 1: And another loss on the first rookie campaign for Kellen

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Speaker 1: de Boorr. Yes here comes the recruits, Yes, here comes

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Speaker 1: the nil money for Alabama. By yikes, they got to

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Speaker 1: lose to that Michigan team to score thirteen points. Oh my,

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Speaker 1: Now college basketball was much better if you took both games.

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Speaker 1: I told you last night on the Jews for the

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Speaker 1: Richmond Spiders, I told you they were zero to five

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Speaker 1: at home. A little birdie down here told me to

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Speaker 1: take Richmond plus three and a half and won the

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Speaker 1: game outright. And then Creighton got a huge win at

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Speaker 1: home against Saint John's. I had no clue what to

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Speaker 1: make of that. That made no sense to me. I

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Speaker 1: was like, why in the world, I mean, the Jay's

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Speaker 1: being a dog at home this year. Look, they're going

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Speaker 1: to struggle to win games on the road, but anytime

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Speaker 1: they're getting points at home. You have to look at

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Speaker 1: the Creighton Blue Jays like they just it's one of

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Speaker 1: the most difficult places to play in the country. Nobody

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Speaker 1: really wants to talk about it. But that number was wrong.

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Speaker 1: Saint John should not have been favored in that game.

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Speaker 1: Jay's win, Jane's cover the plus one. So two and

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Speaker 1: zero in college basketball if you took the two and

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Speaker 1: zho place like I talked about on the Jews last night,

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Speaker 1: but they weren't official. Obviously I bet them, but they

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Speaker 1: didn't make them. I just made college football the official plays.

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Speaker 1: And Penn State is kicking off here momentarily up against

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Speaker 1: Boise State. We'll see how that game goes. I obviously

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Speaker 1: have a lot going on that game, with Penn State's

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Speaker 1: laying the number, with Penn State taking the over, taking

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Speaker 1: the team total of Penn State playing over there. So

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Speaker 1: I think Penn State scores. I think Drew Ellen's gonna

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Speaker 1: have a big game, big numbers here. I think this

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Speaker 1: fifty three the total, it's not going to stun me.

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Speaker 1: If Penn State scores forty tonight. Okay, now it could

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Speaker 1: be dead wrong. Maybe Penn State's you know, can't score

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Speaker 1: it all against Boise But I watched Boise State. I

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Speaker 1: watched a lot of Penn State. I just think it's

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Speaker 1: a big old mismatch in the trenches on both sides

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Speaker 1: of the football. And I don't think Penn State is

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Speaker 1: going to have much trouble moving the ball themselves through

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Speaker 1: the air. And frankly, I mean, I think there's just

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Speaker 1: a couple of matchup nightmares for Boise State here tonight

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Speaker 1: in the Fiesta Bowl. So we'll see how that game

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Speaker 1: plays out. Hopefully we get the over correct and it

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Speaker 1: goes a one in one day if it's going two day,

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Speaker 1: down a little over two units. And we head into

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Speaker 1: Wednesday here on a New Year's Day, with three games

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Speaker 1: to break down in the college football quarter finals. Now

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Speaker 1: we already have one bet and play here, guys. Okay,

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Speaker 1: we've already talked about the over for Oregon and Ohio

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Speaker 1: State over fifty four and a half. Now that number

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Speaker 1: has moved to fifty five. That number is not gigantic

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Speaker 1: lee moving, but it did move. And you know, certain

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Speaker 1: books a r at fifty five and a half now,

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Speaker 1: depending on what you're looking at. But we have fifty

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Speaker 1: four and a half. So we opened up at fifty

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Speaker 1: two and a half, now fifty five and a half.

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Speaker 1: I still think that bet is good. I like our

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Speaker 1: I like our number, but I don't hate fifty five.

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Speaker 1: You can find a fifty five and go over fifty five.

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Speaker 1: I don't hate that either. You know, fifty four and

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Speaker 1: a half was the first number game went clearly over

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Speaker 1: and a thirty two to thirty one final. So I

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Speaker 1: do lean towards Ohio State to win the game. I

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Speaker 1: do think Ohio State is playing incredible football. So it's

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Speaker 1: not going to shock me at all if Ohio State

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Speaker 1: puts up a big number and Will Howard continues to

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Speaker 1: throw the football the way he's soling the football, or again,

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Speaker 1: we need to play a tremendous, tremendous game to beat

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Speaker 1: Ohio State. Now Here is a theory that I had

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Speaker 1: going into the college football playoff that we're going to

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Speaker 1: see if it holds. I made the statement, and you

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Speaker 1: can bet this if you want. You know, it's too

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Speaker 1: late for Boise State and for Penn State. But I said,

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Speaker 1: teams that played in the core in the first round

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Speaker 1: up against teams that did not play that had a

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Speaker 1: buy that the first half number was something to look at.

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Speaker 1: That the rhythm of playing playoff football at home and

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Speaker 1: the confidence that will have come from winning a playoff

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Speaker 1: football game at a home will let those teams on

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Speaker 1: a neutral start faster than teams that had to buy

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Speaker 1: that have to get used to the intensity and the

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Speaker 1: speed of playing college football, playoff football. So that means

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Speaker 1: Texas against Arizona State, that means Notre Dame up against Georgia,

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Speaker 1: and that means the Ohio State Buckeyes up against Oregon.

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Speaker 1: Ohio State first half is not a bad bet here tonight.

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Speaker 1: So watch out Penn State starts against Boise. They get

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Speaker 1: off to a really fast start. Maybe there's something to

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Speaker 1: that theory about playing games at home and the way

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Speaker 1: these teams are going to perform when they've already played

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Speaker 1: a playoff game under their belt in the bye. I

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Speaker 1: said it before, I didn't think the bye was always

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Speaker 1: a great thing for certain teams. Teams like Boise. I

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Speaker 1: don't think the bye helped all that much. I think

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Speaker 1: the buy is going to be detrimental to them, and

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Speaker 1: frankly the same thing for Arizona State. I think the

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Speaker 1: bie is going to be detrimental. You've allowed Texas to

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Speaker 1: get a big win over Clemson at home, and now

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Speaker 1: they get to go to Georgia, where tickets are not

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Speaker 1: hard to get. There will be Longhorn fans there, but

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Speaker 1: I think even Arizona State fans know what's about to

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Speaker 1: happen here. Numbers twelve or twelve and a half. Find

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Speaker 1: the twelve. I know Arizona State's eleven and two ATS.

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Speaker 1: I know they've covered six straight games. I know they're

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Speaker 1: five and two ATS. I know they have won games

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Speaker 1: against Iowa State by twenty six, Arizona by forty two.

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Speaker 1: In their last two games, they beat BYU at home

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Speaker 1: by five. I know they're playing really, really well, but

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Speaker 1: I just think that having Texas is a really bad matchup.

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Speaker 1: I think defensively, Texas will slow down Scatobo. I think

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Speaker 1: they're gonna have a tough time throwing the football without

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Speaker 1: their number one wide receiver for Arizona State. I just

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Speaker 1: think Texas has more talent if you take away the

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Speaker 1: Georgia losses. Okay, they lost to Georgia by fifteen and

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Speaker 1: lost to Georgia by three on a neutral Okay, you

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Speaker 1: take away those two games. The only game that really

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Speaker 1: jumps out where they didn't dominate was Vanderbilt on the road.

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Speaker 1: Everything else, every other game Texas has won by double digits,

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Speaker 1: fourteen over Clemson, ten points over Texas A and M,

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Speaker 1: seventeen over Kentucky, ten over Arkansas, thirty two over Florida. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: the Vanderbilt game comes in just one time. They won

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Speaker 1: the game by three, beat Oklahoma State, but Oklahoma on

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Speaker 1: a neutral by thirty one. You can come through all this,

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Speaker 1: beat Michigan by nineteen. You can say, Matt, you know

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Speaker 1: how good is the sec? You know we've seen Illinois

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Speaker 1: beat South Carolina, we saw Michigan beat Alabama. I'll give

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Speaker 1: you all that, but how good really is the big twelve? Okay?

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Speaker 1: My answer to that would be, Okay, Iowa State and

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Speaker 1: you beat Arizona and I like BYU. We were on

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Speaker 1: BYU earlier last week. And Kansas State, Central Florida, Oklahoma State,

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Speaker 1: they lost to Arizona State, lost to Cincinnati, they lost

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Speaker 1: to Texas Tech. I mean, how good are those teams really?

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Speaker 1: I just think Texas is too good here. I think

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Speaker 1: Texas wins the game by double digits. I'll lay the

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Speaker 1: twelve points because I don't know how many points Arizona

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Speaker 1: State is going to score. Frankly, I think they can

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Speaker 1: have a real tough time moving the football here and

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Speaker 1: they have to run the ball well to be effective.

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Speaker 1: And frankly, Texas's rush defense is so damn good three

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Speaker 1: point one yards per rush giving up that's eighth best

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Speaker 1: in the country. If Arizona State can't run the football. Oh,

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Speaker 1: and you can't really throw on Texas either they have

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Speaker 1: the number one opposing yards per past defense or secondary

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Speaker 1: is so good five point four yards per pass play,

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Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty seven yards per game giving up

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Speaker 1: through the air. That's second best in the country for Texas.

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Speaker 1: I can't touch the over or the under in this

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Speaker 1: game from a total perspective because I don't think on

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Speaker 1: state scores. I think it's all Texas in the Peach

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Speaker 1: Bowl Texas minus twelve for one point one units. And

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Speaker 1: then lastly, I mean, I think this is just a

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Speaker 1: hedge bet. Notre Dame now is plus one and a

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Speaker 1: half up against Georgia. What will happen with Carson Beck

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Speaker 1: being done? Carson Beck is not going to even play

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Speaker 1: at all in these playoffs. He's had surgery and he's

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Speaker 1: declared for the NFL Draft. I was watching Todd McShay

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Speaker 1: on his show, and he went in on Carson Beck

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Speaker 1: saying he's talked to scouts, and he's talked to gms

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Speaker 1: and personnel people in the NFL, and they all think

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Speaker 1: he made a massive mistake. They think he should stay

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Speaker 1: in college. They think he should not come out. And

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Speaker 1: I would agree with him. I'm not a huge Carson

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Speaker 1: Beck fan. I know Stockton looks good. Okay, he does.

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Speaker 1: He can run the ball, he's stronger, more physical. But

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Speaker 1: this is a massive moment. I think it would be

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Speaker 1: stupid about to not at least take a one unit

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Speaker 1: hedge here and take the one point five and take

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Speaker 1: the plus one and a half points with Notre Dame

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Speaker 1: against Georgia, just in case the kid throws up all

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Speaker 1: over himself. Okay, we have a six to one ticket

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Speaker 1: on Georgia to win it all, so we have some

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Speaker 1: wiggle room here with that, and I think we have

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Speaker 1: to do it just to protect ourselves here. Okay, it

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Speaker 1: becomes a five to one bet for Georgia. That's still

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Speaker 1: really good. If Stockton plays perfect and looks awesome and

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Speaker 1: they're heading off to the national semi finals. I think

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Speaker 1: if it's Penn State, I think Georgia would Stockton if

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Speaker 1: he plays but as well and beats Notre Dame. I

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Speaker 1: think they will win. They will win that game. They

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Speaker 1: will beat a Penn State team on the other side

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Speaker 1: to get to the National Championship game. And then we

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Speaker 1: can talk about hedging and other times if we want,

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Speaker 1: or just let it play out and see how the

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Speaker 1: game goes with Georgia with a five to one ticket

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Speaker 1: versus a six to one ticket. But that's how I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna do it. Okay, I'm gonna I'm gonna take the

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Speaker 1: one and a half points. Heck, if Georgia wins by one,

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Speaker 1: we cash both bets potentially. I mean, so that's that's

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Speaker 1: what would be deal. But I'm gonna do a little

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Speaker 1: bit of a head here and I'm gonna go in

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Speaker 1: at plus one and a half for Notre Dame tonight

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Speaker 1: taking on a very feisty Georgia team in the Caesars

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Speaker 1: super Dome in the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, where

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Speaker 1: you have to think Georgia is going to have a

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Speaker 1: big home field advantage, a lot of fans going down there.

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Speaker 1: The Irish will travel, but Georgia knows New Orleans really

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Speaker 1: well and man alive. This is going to be a

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Speaker 1: wild game to watch for this defense for Georgia. Which

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Speaker 1: of the defenses will show up for Georgia in this game,

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Speaker 1: because they're going to need to play really well up

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Speaker 1: against a running attack for the Irish that looks great

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Speaker 1: last week, and so I'm very curious again, you know,

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Speaker 1: Notre Dame's defense could be the answer. I would lean

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Speaker 1: towards the under in this game. Both these teams are

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Speaker 1: so defensively focused. Georgia gives up twenty one point eight

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Speaker 1: points per game, top twenty five in the country. Notre

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Speaker 1: Dame gives up thirteen point eight, that's top five in

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Speaker 1: the country. Lean towards the under forty five and a

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Speaker 1: half in this one. But we're just gonna take the

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Speaker 1: plus one and a half on a hedge for our

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Speaker 1: six to one ticket on Georgia to within the national championship.

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Speaker 1: All right, So plays four today on the first of

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Speaker 1: the year. As we start twenty twenty five with three

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Speaker 1: massive college football games, what else will we start with?

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Speaker 1: Texas minus twelve for one point one units, the Irish

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Speaker 1: plus one and a half for one point one to

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Speaker 1: five units, a hedge off of our Georgia future in

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Speaker 1: Ohio State Oregon over fifty four and a half. I

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Speaker 1: bet we gave out about a week ago for the

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Speaker 1: college football semi quarter finals. Rather, we will have the

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Speaker 1: college football semi final set after New Year's Day. My

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Speaker 1: name is Matt Parolt. I hope you had an awesome

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Speaker 1: New Year's Eve into a New Year's Day. First of

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Speaker 1: the year. Let's have a great year here in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five, I'll go over everything like I mentioned yesterday.

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Speaker 1: We'll do a full recap of twenty four when I

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Speaker 1: get back to Vegas. Coming up here in a couple

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Speaker 1: of days. Mine's Matt Parolt because valmicaus all socials at

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Speaker 1: Sports Talk Matt every morning. It is the Daily Juice

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Speaker 1: podcast wherever you guys get your podcasts.