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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast named vest vetting Podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go. We're growing out job. I'm

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Speaker 2: sitting it to cash. We'll see most gamblers when they

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Speaker 2: go to gamble, they go to wind. That's incredible. Big bank,

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Speaker 2: small bank. I like to make money. All right, this

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Speaker 2: is the ultimate combine you want to pull, and we

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Speaker 2: are underway.

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Speaker 3: Hello, everyone, Welcome back to another NFL episode of the

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Speaker 3: award winning Action Network podcast. I'm Matthew Friedman, the editor

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Speaker 3: in chief of Fantasy Labs. With me are Shawn Corner

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Speaker 3: and Chris Raymond. Shawn is the Action Network Director of

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Speaker 3: Projective Analytics. Chris is a senior editor and analyst at

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Speaker 3: the Action Network. In there too, of the best fantasy

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Speaker 3: football in the world. Gentlemen, it's here. It's the show

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Speaker 3: that everyone has been waiting for patiently for a year.

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Speaker 3: I am talking about Propapalooza. In joining us to help

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Speaker 3: us break down our favorite season long player props for

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty is Mike Clay, an ESPN media personality, And

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Speaker 3: I mean, Mike, you are you know, one of the

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Speaker 3: best projection guys out there, best rankers in the industry.

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Speaker 3: We've had you on the show before to talk about

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Speaker 3: player props. It was a blast. I'm so thrilled to

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Speaker 3: have you back on the show.

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Speaker 4: Well, two things. First of all, I'm not often It's

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Speaker 4: not often I go on a show and I'm intimidated

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Speaker 4: by the people around me. You guys, obviously, are three

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Speaker 4: of the best prognosticators in the business, So it's awesome.

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Speaker 4: I love when I can go in and actually learn

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Speaker 4: from the people I'm talking to.

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Speaker 5: So this is.

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Speaker 3: Fantastic, fantastic job buttering us up. I mean, honestly, you

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Speaker 3: could have just said that and that would have been enough.

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Speaker 3: As a guest. Your job here is almost done. It

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Speaker 3: is fantastic to have you on the pod. We've had

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Speaker 3: a great stretch of shows. Evan Silva, Ian Harditz, Denny Carter,

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Speaker 3: Matt Harmon, Mike Taglier, Graham Barfield, Jake Seeley, Dave Richard,

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Speaker 3: Sigmund Bloom, and Chris Harris. So, Mike, you're continuing in

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Speaker 3: a proud tradition of Powerhouse guests, and last week we

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Speaker 3: put on our annual Fantasy one to one show. All

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Speaker 3: of those episodes are great. You can check them out

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Speaker 3: as well as our rankings and up to the minute

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Speaker 3: projections in the Fantasy Football cheat sheet at the Action Network. Mike,

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Speaker 3: let's get into these twenty twenty player props, but I mean,

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Speaker 3: I have to say right before we get into them,

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Speaker 3: I want to ask you kind of big picture question

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Speaker 3: about your projections process. Obviously you power the projections for

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Speaker 3: players at ESPN. Talk a little bit about your general process,

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Speaker 3: some of the stats that you prioritize, and your approach

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Speaker 3: to player projections.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, maybe this is an idea for a future pod

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Speaker 4: because we could talk about this for hours. I think

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Speaker 4: just go, you know, into the all different variations that

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Speaker 4: go into it. And I often, you know, I get

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Speaker 4: this question pretty much every show I do, I get

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Speaker 4: this question, and I like to think of it kind

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Speaker 4: of like a lot of branches kind of coming together,

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Speaker 4: you know, a lot a lot of branches and then

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Speaker 4: they kind of meet at the middle for the final product.

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Speaker 4: But look, the most important thing is volume. I think

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Speaker 4: you know, as guys again, who are terrific prognosticators terrific

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Speaker 4: and ranking accuracy you guys know, it's all about trying

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Speaker 4: to figure out the volume and and that's not all historical,

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Speaker 4: uh you know, uh contact, some of it is is

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Speaker 4: following beat reporters and uh, following the news and as

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Speaker 4: you know, projecting forward pedigree if you know, you think

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Speaker 4: about a guy like Demian Harris, a Day two pick

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Speaker 4: last year taking on.

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Speaker 2: A bigger role.

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Speaker 4: I mean, there's a million things that kind of go

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Speaker 4: into it, but that's number one obviously, is trying to

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Speaker 4: figure out that volume. And that's kind of the subjective

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Speaker 4: side of it, you know, Objectively speaking, you know, there's

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Speaker 4: a lot, uh in terms of there's a lot new

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Speaker 4: in the last few years that we've kind of come

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Speaker 4: across with Knicks, gen stats and PFF and and you

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Speaker 4: name it. A lot of new data points that we

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Speaker 4: can use to become smarter in this game. I'm really

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Speaker 4: excited about the future to see how we can kind

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Speaker 4: of utilize those data points to make our projection process

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Speaker 4: better and kind of reduce variants. So again, I could

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Speaker 4: talk about this all day, but in a nutshell, just

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Speaker 4: it's a combination of advanced stats this you know, the

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Speaker 4: stats that we talk about all the time that are

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Speaker 4: projectable forward and not quite as noisy as some others,

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Speaker 4: and then of course that that subjective cyb where we're

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Speaker 4: just following the news every day and just constantly updating

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Speaker 4: for what we learn.

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Speaker 3: All right, I want to ask you a question about

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Speaker 3: the player prop market and then get Sean and Chris's

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Speaker 3: feedback on this. Historically, unders have been the sharp bets

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Speaker 3: to make. Now this year, I've noticed that when I'm

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Speaker 3: looking at the market, I'm increasingly thinking that overs are

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Speaker 3: bets that I want to make, Not you know, like

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Speaker 3: I want to make more overs than unders, but that

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Speaker 3: there's just a little more balanced this year than I've

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Speaker 3: noticed in previous seasons. And I want to get your

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Speaker 3: thoughts on what that actually means. Does it mean that

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Speaker 3: this market year over year has become more efficient? Do

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Speaker 3: we think that there's some sort of COVID based penalty

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Speaker 3: that some of the books are putting on players to

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Speaker 3: knock their projections down relative to where they might have

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Speaker 3: been in past seasons. What do you think is going

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Speaker 3: on with this market?

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Speaker 4: It's funny to say that, because you know, I used

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Speaker 4: last year as a learning experience. You know, I've experienced

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Speaker 4: with props in the past, but not at that level,

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Speaker 4: not like we're doing daily wager every single day. And

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Speaker 4: I'm going through props and basically coming up for information

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Speaker 4: and advice on every single prop. I was in the

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Speaker 4: Caesars Sports book last year, so you know, I went

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Speaker 4: back and looked at that as soon as the season end.

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Speaker 4: I wanted to see how well I did. And I

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Speaker 4: didn't notice what you said. I mean a lot of

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Speaker 4: the unders hit the ones. I think I did a

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Speaker 4: lot of overs actually on this show last year, and

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Speaker 4: those ones did not hit as well as the unders did.

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Speaker 4: So that was a learning experience. I started to once

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Speaker 4: when Caesar's dropped their next batch for twenty twenty, I

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Speaker 4: looked at those and I was, uh, I think I

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Speaker 4: was a little I adjusted my projection process to make

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Speaker 4: sure I wasn't quite as aggressive with certain projections in

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Speaker 4: certain categories based on what I learned, and uh, you know,

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Speaker 4: I came in, I showed mare unders and over so

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Speaker 4: I thought that was probably a point in the right

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Speaker 4: direction for my process. And then a few weeks ago,

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Speaker 4: about probably a little less than a month ago, we

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Speaker 4: did a show on Sirius XM. It was kind of

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Speaker 4: like a draft where you draft player props and I

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Speaker 4: compared to DraftKings, and I was like, way on the unders,

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Speaker 4: like I thought their numbers were way too high. So

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Speaker 4: so I don't know, I don't know if I've seen that.

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Speaker 4: Maybe I haven't looked at enough books. But I've noticed

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Speaker 4: that Caesars are probably the toughest ones right now, and

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Speaker 4: that's what I'm gonna look at. We're gonna look at

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Speaker 4: a few of those today. And uh, I noticed the

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Speaker 4: draft kings still seem kind of high for me. So

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Speaker 4: I still think you could kind of take advantage. But

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Speaker 4: maybe I'm seeing maybe you guys are seeing something I

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Speaker 4: have not.

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Speaker 3: I mean, there's always the possibility and and Sean and

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Speaker 3: Chris can definitely back this up that I'm just wrong.

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Speaker 3: I could be massively wrong on the way that I'm

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Speaker 3: viewing these And Sean, I want to get your thoughts

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Speaker 3: on it, kind of big picture thoughts of what you're

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Speaker 3: seeing in the market right now. And if you do

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Speaker 3: think that there's some sort of trend where this year

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Speaker 3: we might have more overs than we've had in previous years,

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Speaker 3: that seem to be the right bets.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I noticed that too. I think the market is

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Speaker 6: getting sharper. There could be a bunch of different reasons.

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Speaker 6: I think that, you know, maybe sharper people figure this

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Speaker 6: season would happen, So there's there's been more sharp money,

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Speaker 6: whereas more casual betters. A lot of people that I

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Speaker 6: know just thought, oh, they're not playing football this year.

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Speaker 6: That might play into it. The more US legal based

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Speaker 6: sportsbooks are. I think these types of markets will get

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Speaker 6: sharper just because America is a country has always been

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Speaker 6: keen on fancy football and stuff, so that's gonna be

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Speaker 6: the easiest market for Americans to be sharper on. So

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Speaker 6: that that could be a theme. But you know, I

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Speaker 6: still do like the unders because there's always more outs

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Speaker 6: to hitting the under. Obviously injuries. Each position is different,

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Speaker 6: but you know, running backs, I project the median miss

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Speaker 6: games of like one and a half to two. The

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Speaker 6: markets don't factor that in as much, but this year,

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Speaker 6: I mean we have you know, a positive COVID test

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Speaker 6: is now part of the mix, so I think, you know,

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Speaker 6: it's even more likely that unders are going to hit.

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Speaker 6: And you know, people love betting overs, so that's kind

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Speaker 6: of where it comes from. So when I think about

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Speaker 6: betting and over on a yardage prop or touchdown prop,

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Speaker 6: I like looking at these lead the league markets because

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Speaker 6: you're already kind of needing a guy to hit on

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Speaker 6: his upside, his ceiling, so you might as well get

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Speaker 6: rewarded for you know, fifty to one payout and things

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Speaker 6: like that. So I typically look at those before I

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Speaker 6: actually bet an over. But I did notice that there

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Speaker 6: are a few more overs that I'm attacking this year,

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Speaker 6: So I'm with you on that one, Raybon.

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Speaker 3: I'm still clearly on the path of wanting to bet

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Speaker 3: unders as opposed to overs, But just at the market,

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Speaker 3: I thought there were a few more overs this year

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Speaker 3: relative to past seasons that I thought were exploitable. Is Raymond,

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Speaker 3: is that what you are seeing when you were looking

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Speaker 3: at the market, And if so, why do you think

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Speaker 3: that's the case?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So I do see that the lines have come

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Speaker 2: down a little bit. It doesn't make me want to

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Speaker 2: bet overs more. I'm kind of with Sean on this.

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Speaker 2: I think that the way to attack overs is to

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Speaker 2: just get a much better payout, Like why why make

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Speaker 2: a fifty to fifty kind of bet on something that's

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Speaker 2: going to be, you know, six months in the future

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Speaker 2: where you're not getting a great payout anyway. So I

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Speaker 2: prefer those markets as well. But I do see, you know,

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Speaker 2: a lot of these lines a lot closer to where

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Speaker 2: they should be in my opinion, and it just there's

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Speaker 2: not as much value on the under books are you know,

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Speaker 2: they probably suffered a little bit of a hurting with

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Speaker 2: all the sports kind of you know, pausing player props

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Speaker 2: are a really good way to kind of entice better

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Speaker 2: and get some get some square money, to be honest,

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Speaker 2: if they're taking over, so I think they're just kind

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Speaker 2: of bringing these lines, making these lines a little softer,

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Speaker 2: because you know, it's six months in the in the

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Speaker 2: future until you get paid out, and you know, as

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Speaker 2: Sean mentioned, there's just a lot more outs in the

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Speaker 2: other direction. You know. Even though the median games played

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Speaker 2: for most players is going to be around fifteen, maybe

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Speaker 2: a little lower for running backs, there's so much downside.

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Speaker 2: If a player you know does miss you know, you

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Speaker 2: know more than you know, go below his media or

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Speaker 2: you know what I mean. So it's like you can

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Speaker 2: go anywhere from you know, all the way down to

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Speaker 2: zero or one. You play one game and get hurt

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Speaker 2: for the year, but you can't really get any better

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Speaker 2: than you know, fifteen games. Your upside is only one game,

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Speaker 2: and the prop still has to hit to your projection,

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Speaker 2: so it has to be right. So there's just to me,

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Speaker 2: there's just kind of an imbalance in the upside versus

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Speaker 2: downside risk of betting on overs in terms of just

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Speaker 2: the fifty to fifty props.

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Speaker 3: All right, so let's get into our twenty twenty player props,

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Speaker 3: the favorite props that we have for this upcoming season.

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Speaker 3: If you like what you hear, by the way, give

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Speaker 3: us a five star rating and leave a review. We

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Speaker 3: would appreciate it. Right, Each of us is going to

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Speaker 3: give our FA our five favorite props for the season,

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Speaker 3: and Mike, let's start from five and go down to

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Speaker 3: one and then we'll kind of circulate. So Mike, give

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Speaker 3: me your fifth most favorite prop.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, And I'm kind of cheating here because I'm combining too.

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Speaker 4: I'm taking the unders on Christian McCaffrey. Twelve and forty

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Speaker 4: nine and a half rushing yards and nine and a

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Speaker 4: half rushing touchdowns are the lines over at Caesars. I

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Speaker 4: like the under both of these guys, and by a

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Speaker 4: decent margin. Actually, look last season, McCaffrey ran for three

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Speaker 4: hundred and eighty seven yards. But of the thirty five

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Speaker 4: running backs, we're going to look at some history. Of

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Speaker 4: the thirty five running backs who reached thirteen hundred rushing

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Speaker 4: yards in a single season over the past decade, only

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Speaker 4: twelve got to twelve fifty the following season, which, of

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Speaker 4: course is his line. So that's one thing to consider.

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Speaker 4: He's been over the sign each of the past two seasons.

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Speaker 4: I'd get that, but he had to play ninety two

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Speaker 4: and ninety three percent of the snaps. Again, we were

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Speaker 4: just talking about how hard it is to stay healthy

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Speaker 4: for a full season if you inject some injury risk

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Speaker 4: in there. Not to mention the new Matt rule offense,

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Speaker 4: perhaps he plays even a little bit less. It's going

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Speaker 4: to be hard for him to hit these numbers considering

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Speaker 4: what he does as a pass catcher. And now as

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Speaker 4: for the touchdowns, again, you know, fifteen touchdowns last season

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Speaker 4: on the ground, but he had a ten point eight

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Speaker 4: OTD or an opportunity adjusted touchdown total. That's what the

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Speaker 4: average I'm going to mention it a few times. I'm

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Speaker 4: sure that's what the average player would get based on

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Speaker 4: the location and the volume of his carries last season.

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Speaker 4: And again some history during the past decade, fourteen running

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Speaker 4: backs had fifteen plus rushing touchdowns in a season that

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Speaker 4: group averaged six point one. The next season, only five

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Speaker 4: of the fourteen got to double digit. So it's just

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Speaker 4: these are high marks for a player. I'm not going

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Speaker 4: to project a sixteen game season. I'm with Sean, I'm four.

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Speaker 4: I'm in that fourteen to fourteen and a half sort

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Speaker 4: of range is what I kind of work with with

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Speaker 4: my running back. So I just I can't go quite

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Speaker 4: this high with really any running back.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, And you know, one of the things I love

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Speaker 3: about this market is that you get so much variability

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Speaker 3: from sports book to sportsbook, and it highlights the importance

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Speaker 3: of line shopping in the fact that you can find

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Speaker 3: a line that you like out there for a lot

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Speaker 3: of players. So, for instance, at Draftking sportsbook, this line

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Speaker 3: for Christian McCaffrey is around eleven hundred and fifty yards.

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Speaker 3: And so if you you know, like the under on

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Speaker 3: Christian McCaffrey and you can go to Caesars and you know,

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Speaker 3: get an extra hundred yards of cushion, I mean, that's

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Speaker 3: that's fantastic value there. Sean, give us your fifth favorite

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Speaker 3: player prop.

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Speaker 6: So, to be honest, I like these all equally, So

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Speaker 6: just the first one I'm going to talk about, is

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Speaker 6: Josh Allen under seven and a half rushing touchdowns? So

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Speaker 6: I have this number closer to five and a half,

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Speaker 6: and a market like those two touchdowns is pretty huge.

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Speaker 6: So you know, looking at last season, he scored on

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Speaker 6: eight of his own eleven rushing attempts inside the ten.

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Speaker 6: That's absolutely insane. And I'm the first one to admit

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Speaker 6: that Josh Allen is a above average rushing quarterback. So

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Speaker 6: you know, when you take a look at the average

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Speaker 6: rate for QB and that inside the ten rate, it's

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Speaker 6: closer to thirty five percent. Looking at a guy like

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Speaker 6: Lamar Jackson, who I would consider the best running quarterback,

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Speaker 6: he was five or fourteen, so that's thirty five percent.

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Speaker 6: I'm regressing Josh Allen closer to lee average. Again, assuming

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Speaker 6: he's above league average, I have him closer to five

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Speaker 6: and a half total touchdowns. But this is just just

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Speaker 6: one of those stats where I think people are just

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Speaker 6: assuming he's going to keep up this touchdown pace of

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Speaker 6: he had nine and then eight, I just think we

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Speaker 6: should expect some regression in terms of attempts. With Zach

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Speaker 6: Moss there, he should be much more efficient than Frank

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Speaker 6: Gore around the goal line, and his just rate is

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Speaker 6: just absolutely through the roof. It's going to come down

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Speaker 6: a bit this year, so I love the under seven

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Speaker 6: and a half touchdowns and just for reference, Lamar Jackson

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Speaker 6: rush for and touchdowns last year, so this is a

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Speaker 6: gigantic number. So I'm easily on the under here.

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Speaker 2: I'm with Sean on that kind of going for these

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Speaker 2: these league leader props. So don't like the unders quite

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Speaker 2: as much. So my my fifth favorite one and I'll

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Speaker 2: go with Josh Jacobs. I like lead the league in

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Speaker 2: rushing touchdowns at twenty to one. I think Jacobs is

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Speaker 2: a guy who if you look at how he gets used, right,

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Speaker 2: he's one of the few backs in the league that

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Speaker 2: can still get twenty touches and the majority of them

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Speaker 2: still are going to come on the ground. And then

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Speaker 2: you look at who projects to, you know, be in

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Speaker 2: the backfield and active on game days alongside him, and

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Speaker 2: it's it's gonna be Jalen Rashard, and it's gonna be

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Speaker 2: Wynn Bowden, who's you know, you know, another pass kind

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Speaker 2: of catcher guy, maybe gets a wildcat snap, But Josh

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Speaker 2: Jacobs is not going to come off the field very

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Speaker 2: often in the red zone. So I think that Josh

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Speaker 2: Jacobs has a very good chance to be near the

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Speaker 2: top of the league, and it carries and you know,

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Speaker 2: he missed thirteen I mean, he missed a couple of

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Speaker 2: three games last year, so he didn't score an order

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Speaker 2: amount of touchdowns or anything, but I think he has that.

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Speaker 4: Potential though at Tonio one, I like those uns.

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Speaker 5: want to make sure you know about the Locked On

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Speaker 5: podcast network Locked On as a daily podcast on your

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Speaker 5: favorite team.

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Speaker 3: Okay, So I said earlier that I am leaning obviously

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Speaker 3: towards unders just in general as a kind of philosophy

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Speaker 3: of how to attack season long props. However, for the

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Speaker 3: five that I'm going to talk about in this episode,

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Speaker 3: I am hitting all overs, just you know, to kind

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Speaker 3: of be a little contrarian and also to you know,

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Speaker 3: for the people who like rooting, force something to happen

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Speaker 3: instead of you know, wanting to bet against something. You

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Speaker 3: know you can maybe maybe get some value on some

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Speaker 3: of these bets. I'm gonna be talking.

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Speaker 4: I get it. Make us play the buzzkill role, You

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Speaker 4: play the optimist.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly, show exactly normally. Normally I'm the one who's

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Speaker 3: the wet blanket. So I'm trying to be the one

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Speaker 3: who's a little more rose colored glasses in this scenario.

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Speaker 3: The guy who has caught my eye for the the

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Speaker 3: prop I like, you know, my number five prop here

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Speaker 3: is Jonathan Taylor, and at DraftKings you can get over

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Speaker 3: seven hundred and a half yards rushing. I just think

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Speaker 3: that that number is is far too low. Even if

365
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Speaker 3: you take into account the fact that Marlon Mack is

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Speaker 3: there and that Nahem Heinz is there and it's going

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Speaker 3: to be a split backfield, I still think that Jonathan

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Speaker 3: Taylor is you know, even if we don't think he's

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Speaker 3: an elite talent, or we don't know for sure that

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Speaker 3: he's an elite talent, I think he's clearly an above

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Speaker 3: average talent and I do expect that sooner or lay

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Speaker 3: he will end up seizing a pretty significant share of

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Speaker 3: that backfield work. I think that this number should be

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Speaker 3: closer to eight hundred and fifty or even nine hundred,

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Speaker 3: which sounds a little optimistic, but I just I really

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Speaker 3: do think that's where this number should be. And so

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Speaker 3: for a number to be seven hundred, I just think

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Speaker 3: there's a lot of value here, So that that is

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Speaker 3: where I am leaning. Mike. I don't know if you

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Speaker 3: have an opinion on that, but if so, definitely I

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Speaker 3: would like to hear it.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I like that one a lot. Actually, I'm at

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Speaker 4: forty five percent of the design runs going to him,

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Speaker 4: and I'm at eight seventy three, so that's one hundred

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Speaker 4: and ninety seven carries. I'm way over is a high

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Speaker 4: volume running offense, and something that I don't think has

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Speaker 4: been talked about enough, just really quicker about both the

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Speaker 4: Chargers and the Colts offense is the change in a

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Speaker 4: type of quarterback and how that's going to be, how

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Speaker 4: that's going to distribute touches to the pass catchers, because

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Speaker 4: you know, for example, the Chargers are going from a

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Speaker 4: guy that never runs and never scrambles to one of

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Speaker 4: the scramble heavy and sack heavy quarterbacks this league has

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Speaker 4: seen over the past decade in Tyrod Taylor. That's gonna

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Speaker 4: take volume away from the pass catchers, and of course

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Speaker 4: the opposite. In Indianapolis, You're going from Jacoby Brissett, who

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Speaker 4: will run the football to Philip Rivers, who again is

398
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Speaker 4: never gonna scramble, is never gonna run, and it's gonna

399
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Speaker 4: just add volume to the running game and of course

400
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Speaker 4: to the passing game. So and by the way, it's

401
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Speaker 4: also a run heavy offense. So a lot to like

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Speaker 4: for the running game. I think in fantasy, Tailor's probably

403
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Speaker 4: been a little overvalued for most of the summer, But

404
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Speaker 4: I get what you're talking about. I definitely agree seven

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Speaker 4: hundred too low.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, if I'm investing, I'm wanting to invest in his

407
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Speaker 3: player prop and not in fantasy for him. Mike, give

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Speaker 3: us your fourth favorite prop for twenty twenty.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna go with an over. This is my

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Speaker 4: only over on the list here, my only chance to

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Speaker 4: play the optimist role here. I'm gonna go with Travis

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Speaker 4: Kelcey over seven and a half total touchdowns. You know,

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Speaker 4: I think it's an overreaction to line to what happened

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Speaker 4: last season. He had six touchdowns, but he had eight

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Speaker 4: and twenty seventeen. He had ten and twenty eighteen. Honestly,

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Speaker 4: his number last season was a little misleading. It was unlucky.

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Speaker 4: His OTD I mentioned that earlier was seven point nine,

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Speaker 4: that was highst among tight ends. He had nine end

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Speaker 4: zone targets, that was fourth among tight ends. Those two

420
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Speaker 4: numbers kind of fell between where he was the previous

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Speaker 4: two seasons when he averaged nine touchdowns. We know he's

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Speaker 4: never gonna you know, he's always gonna be on the field.

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Speaker 4: He's going to be a huge part of this offense.

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Speaker 4: Top two and snap's routes, targets, receptions, and yardage each

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Speaker 4: of the past four seasons among tight ends. And again

426
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Speaker 4: we're talking about the Chiefs offense, super pass heavy, that's

427
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Speaker 4: not going away. And I've then projected to lead the

428
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Speaker 4: NFL in points as well. So my projection, guys is

429
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Speaker 4: nine point three. It's a very high projection for any player.

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Speaker 4: But if anyone can get there, I think it's certainly

431
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Speaker 4: Travis Kelcey. So it's seven and a half. I mean,

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Speaker 4: that's money in the bank. And also they might hand

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Speaker 4: it to him at the goal line too. We've seen

434
00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:52,040
Speaker 4: that before, so a lot to like about this.

435
00:20:51,960 --> 00:20:54,080
Speaker 2: One, Sean.

436
00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:56,400
Speaker 3: I want your quick thoughts on Kelsey and then your

437
00:20:56,840 --> 00:20:58,720
Speaker 3: number four prop for the season.

438
00:20:59,040 --> 00:20:59,240
Speaker 2: Yeah.

439
00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:01,280
Speaker 6: I like the over on Kelsey. I haven't projected seven

440
00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:04,080
Speaker 6: point eight, so not enough value to bound the over.

441
00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:07,800
Speaker 6: But again, I think my Mahomes touchdown projection of thirty

442
00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:09,720
Speaker 6: five point seven is pretty conservative.

443
00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:10,640
Speaker 2: We've talked about.

444
00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:13,520
Speaker 6: It many times, but you know they have record breaking

445
00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:16,000
Speaker 6: potential this year, so I think if you bet the

446
00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:18,600
Speaker 6: over on Kelsey's touch on, you might as well also

447
00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:21,080
Speaker 6: hit the Mahomes over because they're going to be correlated

448
00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:21,640
Speaker 6: pretty well.

449
00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:23,320
Speaker 2: So I do like the call.

450
00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:26,600
Speaker 6: I think he's always kind of, you know, underperforming in touchdowns,

451
00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:28,520
Speaker 6: and this year he could just blow up and score

452
00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:29,040
Speaker 6: ten plus.

453
00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:29,720
Speaker 2: So I love the call.

454
00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:34,800
Speaker 6: And my number four pick is Cam Newton over twyne

455
00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:35,760
Speaker 6: hundred and fifty yards Freeman.

456
00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:37,320
Speaker 2: I don't want to steal your thunder, so I'll make

457
00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:37,720
Speaker 2: it quick.

458
00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:41,600
Speaker 6: But this is essentially, you know, game starter prop over

459
00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:43,840
Speaker 6: under twelve and a half games for Cam Newton. All

460
00:21:44,080 --> 00:21:46,680
Speaker 6: all reports coming out of camp seem to be it's

461
00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:49,800
Speaker 6: his job and now the battle is who's the backup

462
00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:53,520
Speaker 6: Jared Stidham or Brian Hoyer. So and I'm not buying

463
00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:56,960
Speaker 6: I'm not buying into this college, you know, quarterback rotation

464
00:21:57,600 --> 00:21:58,800
Speaker 6: sort of scheme.

465
00:21:59,000 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 2: I'm not buying it that.

466
00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:02,280
Speaker 6: I think Newton will be the starter, and he will

467
00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:05,679
Speaker 6: start over twelve a half games, barring injury, of course,

468
00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:07,960
Speaker 6: But this is this is the only over I'm willing

469
00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:12,000
Speaker 6: to take, just because it's it's such a low line

470
00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:15,560
Speaker 6: that it's essentially a game's play line. And I'm wondering

471
00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:18,280
Speaker 6: if it's a misquite mistake. If you look at their page,

472
00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:20,919
Speaker 6: they have Cam Newton's name almost spelled and stuff, so

473
00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:21,840
Speaker 6: it could be an error.

474
00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:23,560
Speaker 2: But yeah, I love the over here.

475
00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:25,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, let me tell you. If it's an error, it's

476
00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:28,000
Speaker 3: an error that's been up there in awfully long time.

477
00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:31,399
Speaker 3: So I don't think it is an error. It's this

478
00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:34,840
Speaker 3: is just a line that they've had up there for months,

479
00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:38,000
Speaker 3: so they're, you know, willing to live and die with

480
00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:40,479
Speaker 3: this line there. And I don't think it's the the

481
00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:43,600
Speaker 3: only Cam Newton prop that's off. That's a that's what

482
00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:46,760
Speaker 3: we call the t's in the business. Raymond, what do

483
00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:48,920
Speaker 3: you think of this prop and then give us another

484
00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:50,080
Speaker 3: prop of your own that you like.

485
00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:52,399
Speaker 2: It's kind of odd where they price it. I think

486
00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:55,640
Speaker 2: they're pretty much giving you an injury discount. I personally

487
00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:58,400
Speaker 2: just wouldn't bet it because I don't want to bet

488
00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:00,840
Speaker 2: over on things like that. Like, it's just a wide

489
00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:03,640
Speaker 2: range of outcomes for me. He probably gets over that mark,

490
00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:06,000
Speaker 2: but I'm not excited about it. I guess not as

491
00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:09,080
Speaker 2: excited as you guys. So yeah, I'm I'm I'm kind

492
00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:12,879
Speaker 2: of going with here. Here's an under sterling Shepherd. He

493
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:17,359
Speaker 2: has really never been a touchdown score outside of his

494
00:23:17,480 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 2: rookie season, and in that season he had Christian excuse me,

495
00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:23,879
Speaker 2: Odell Beckham h and they schemed him open on some

496
00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:26,679
Speaker 2: inside plays. It never happened again, and he hasn't scored

497
00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:30,120
Speaker 2: you know, five touchdowns even since then. But his touchdown

498
00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:32,719
Speaker 2: prop is five and a half. I have his median

499
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:36,720
Speaker 2: closer to four, So I like the value there. It's

500
00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:39,160
Speaker 2: one of those woe props that probably knowing is gonna

501
00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 2: touch and so it's just kind of chilling there. But

502
00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:43,720
Speaker 2: I'm on that all day. And also I was looking

503
00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:48,399
Speaker 2: at Shepherd's route numbers, you know inside in the slot

504
00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:51,520
Speaker 2: in his career versus outside, and it turns out that

505
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:54,399
Speaker 2: pretty much all the touchdowns he does end up scoring

506
00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:57,040
Speaker 2: come come inside, and he's a lot less likely to

507
00:23:57,119 --> 00:24:01,439
Speaker 2: play inside the slot because you have Golden eight now healthy,

508
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,959
Speaker 2: you know, not suspended, I should say, for the you know,

509
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:07,359
Speaker 2: to start the season, so Shepherd's gonna have to play

510
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:10,160
Speaker 2: more snaps on the outside. So this is a prop

511
00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:12,960
Speaker 2: where it's one of the rare unders I think, where like,

512
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:15,480
Speaker 2: this guy could play the entire season and not miss

513
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:18,440
Speaker 2: a game, and I still think his medium would fall

514
00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:18,919
Speaker 2: short of that.

515
00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:21,960
Speaker 3: Rayvon, I like that one a lot. I have him

516
00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:26,199
Speaker 3: projected for closer to four touchdowns, and part of that

517
00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 3: is just I'm a little pessimistic on that Jason Garrett

518
00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:31,840
Speaker 3: offense as a whole, and so that that's maybe dragging

519
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:35,639
Speaker 3: down some of the receiving numbers for all of the

520
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:38,119
Speaker 3: pass catchers there. But I'm with you on the under

521
00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:41,560
Speaker 3: for Sterling Shepherd and his touchdown total, a prop that

522
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:44,879
Speaker 3: I like. Again, I'm hitting those overs just to be

523
00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:48,560
Speaker 3: optimistic here, James Connor, I'm going over seven hundred and

524
00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:53,199
Speaker 3: seventy five point five yards rushing. That is at Draftking Sportsbook.

525
00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:57,320
Speaker 3: If you just look at what he's done historically, I

526
00:24:57,359 --> 00:25:00,240
Speaker 3: think he goes over that number. I feel like I'm

527
00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:03,520
Speaker 3: even being a little bit cautious in terms of the

528
00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:08,280
Speaker 3: splits that I'm using. I am acknowledging that Benny Snell

529
00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:12,000
Speaker 3: Jylen Samuels might steal some carries. But I still think

530
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:14,320
Speaker 3: that James Connor is going to get around two hundred carries,

531
00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:16,680
Speaker 3: and I think he's going to go over four yards

532
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:18,840
Speaker 3: per carry, which is what he did last year when

533
00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:21,159
Speaker 3: he was impacted in the second half of the season

534
00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:23,680
Speaker 3: with an injury, and when they obviously didn't have Ben

535
00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:27,960
Speaker 3: Roethlisberger at quarterback to help facilitate that offense. For his career,

536
00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:31,080
Speaker 3: Connor's around four point four yards per carry. So if

537
00:25:31,119 --> 00:25:33,480
Speaker 3: he's getting around two hundred carries for the season, which

538
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:35,960
Speaker 3: I think is fair, I think he has a pretty

539
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:39,920
Speaker 3: good chance of going over seven hundred and seventy five

540
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:43,520
Speaker 3: by a pretty significant margin. But again, you know overs,

541
00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:45,680
Speaker 3: I tend not to bet overs. This is just one

542
00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:48,159
Speaker 3: of the overs that I'm a little more optimistic about.

543
00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:48,720
Speaker 4: Mike.

544
00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:50,879
Speaker 3: I don't know if you have thoughts on James Connor.

545
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 4: I'm a little under I wouldn't bet it a little

546
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 4: bit more nervous, I suppose about the injuries as well

547
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:58,760
Speaker 4: as all the bodies they have in that backfield. And

548
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:01,640
Speaker 4: again Benny Snell getting all a positive report. So that's

549
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:03,760
Speaker 4: what I would stay away from. He makes me nervous

550
00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 4: for sure, so I'm not not too pumped about that.

551
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:07,640
Speaker 4: I just see the upside though.

552
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 3: That's right, you can you can disagree with me. It's

553
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:11,760
Speaker 3: I mean, we will still invite you back next year

554
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:13,439
Speaker 3: even if you disagree with me.

555
00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:15,280
Speaker 4: Now, I'm not being I'm at seven fifty two, so

556
00:26:15,320 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 4: I'm a little under, but I do see where you're

557
00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:19,120
Speaker 4: coming from because I'm at one hundred and seventy eight carries.

558
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:21,520
Speaker 4: So if he gets to two hundred, you're right. I agree,

559
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 4: he's gonna He's gonna hit that number.

560
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:25,240
Speaker 3: All right. Well, I'm looking at the sheet here, and

561
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:27,280
Speaker 3: it looks like the prop that you have as your

562
00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:29,560
Speaker 3: third favorite is one of the ones that I was

563
00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:33,439
Speaker 3: thinking about before I decided to go my all optimistic route.

564
00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:36,359
Speaker 3: Talk to us about your third favorite prop here?

565
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:39,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, third on the board is good old Baker Mayfield.

566
00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:43,159
Speaker 4: This one is surprising to me because my projection is

567
00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:46,600
Speaker 4: about four hundred yards off from his passing yardage line,

568
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:48,600
Speaker 4: which is three eight hundred and forty nine and a

569
00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 4: half yards this season. So here's the thing. Last season,

570
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 4: he played pretty much every snap for this Browns offense.

571
00:26:57,160 --> 00:27:00,119
Speaker 4: He ranked tenth in past attempts in the NFL, and

572
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:02,399
Speaker 4: he was below this line thirty eight twenty seven. That

573
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:06,080
Speaker 4: was his passing yardage total. So you're bring in Kevin Stefanski.

574
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:09,119
Speaker 4: All indicators are this will be a run heavy offense,

575
00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:10,680
Speaker 4: just like Minnesota was. They were one of the run

576
00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:13,840
Speaker 4: heaviest offenses in the NFL. What did he do when

577
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:16,200
Speaker 4: he got to Cleveland? Did he go get a third receiver? No,

578
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 4: you know what he did was he brought in a

579
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:20,000
Speaker 4: tight end and he brought in a full back and

580
00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:22,520
Speaker 4: he you know, they didn't really even address that third

581
00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:25,359
Speaker 4: wide receiver spot. So they addressed the offensive line of course.

582
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:27,880
Speaker 4: So I think they're going to run the football a ton.

583
00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:30,400
Speaker 4: And what did we see from Kirk Cousins last season, Well,

584
00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:34,520
Speaker 4: he was extremely efficient. I think all indicators suggests he

585
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:36,520
Speaker 4: was one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL.

586
00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:39,040
Speaker 4: But he was twenty fourth in pass attempts and he

587
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:42,480
Speaker 4: barely cleared thirty six hundred passing yards. Again, that's well

588
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:45,280
Speaker 4: below this line of thirty eight forty nine and a half.

589
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:46,920
Speaker 4: And by the way, we can't count on him playing

590
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:49,920
Speaker 4: every snap again, right, ninety nine percent of the dropbacks.

591
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:53,040
Speaker 4: I mean, if you look on a given year, how

592
00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:55,879
Speaker 4: many of the thirty two week one quarterbacks play ninety

593
00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:57,960
Speaker 4: five percent of the dropbacks? Well, it's about a third

594
00:27:57,960 --> 00:27:59,440
Speaker 4: of them. I mean if they get hurt and the

595
00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:02,040
Speaker 4: guys get and he, by the way, could get benched

596
00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:05,119
Speaker 4: case Keenum is there, and if he struggles again and

597
00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:07,240
Speaker 4: Cleveland's kind of hanging in the race for that seventh

598
00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:10,600
Speaker 4: wild card, he very well could lose the job if

599
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:12,440
Speaker 4: he's really having a hard time. So for me, I'm

600
00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:14,840
Speaker 4: at thirty four to fifty four, fourty hearts below this

601
00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:16,280
Speaker 4: mark and easy under for me.

602
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:18,919
Speaker 3: I love that one coming in with the fire of

603
00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:22,920
Speaker 3: potentially Baker Mayfield getting benched. There you didn't need to

604
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:26,040
Speaker 3: all scorged to earth, but no, I love that one.

605
00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:29,000
Speaker 3: I'm with you there on the under Sean. I want

606
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:30,800
Speaker 3: to get your quick thoughts on that and then get

607
00:28:30,880 --> 00:28:32,080
Speaker 3: your third favorite prop.

608
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 6: Yeah, I love the call on Baker under again. This

609
00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:38,719
Speaker 6: is gonna be a Kevin Stefanski run first offense. They

610
00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 6: have one of the easiest schedules, you know, probably the

611
00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:45,480
Speaker 6: best backfield NFL with Cream Hunt Nick Chubbs. So you know,

612
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:48,480
Speaker 6: I think that they're going to keep it conservative. I

613
00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:50,560
Speaker 6: think he'll be way more efficient this year and they'll

614
00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:53,320
Speaker 6: be better for it. So yeah, I love the under

615
00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:57,240
Speaker 6: as well. So my next prop is Le'Veon bell. Now,

616
00:28:57,240 --> 00:28:59,720
Speaker 6: when I wrote this down last night, the prop was

617
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:01,760
Speaker 6: one hundred and fifty rushing yards. Now it's down to

618
00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:05,200
Speaker 6: eight hundred, which would have been the cutoff. I still

619
00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:07,320
Speaker 6: like it at eight hundred, but you know, he was

620
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:10,600
Speaker 6: under this number last year. He ran the ball two

621
00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:13,320
Speaker 6: hundred and forty six times for seven hundred and eighty

622
00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:16,719
Speaker 6: nine yards three point two yards per carry. You know,

623
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:19,920
Speaker 6: they really did some improvements on the offensive line in

624
00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:21,760
Speaker 6: the offseason, a lot of new bodies there. I think

625
00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:24,360
Speaker 6: it'll be better, but I'm only aggressing them up closer

626
00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:27,840
Speaker 6: to like three point eight range. But as Mike said earlier,

627
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 6: you know, it all comes down to volume in a

628
00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 6: market like this, and we're already seeing reports that Adam

629
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:35,720
Speaker 6: Gase loves Frank Core, which is arguably the most twenty

630
00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:38,520
Speaker 6: twenty headline. Ever, you got to know the market, right,

631
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:41,200
Speaker 6: I think Le'Veon Bell is going to dominate the passing

632
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:44,040
Speaker 6: down work. I don't think he's really gonna split work there,

633
00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:46,440
Speaker 6: but you know, if they do give him relief, it

634
00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:48,440
Speaker 6: will be in the running game. So I could definitely

635
00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:50,760
Speaker 6: see Frank core eating some touches there. We have to

636
00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:52,360
Speaker 6: remember last year it was his bowl of Palell and

637
00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:55,800
Speaker 6: time Montgomery, you know, carry the ball ninety one time,

638
00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 6: so you know, I expect Frank order to have more

639
00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:01,360
Speaker 6: piece of the pie. Then we have fourth round rookie

640
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:04,200
Speaker 6: Michael p Ryan. You know, he's the kind of guy

641
00:30:04,240 --> 00:30:05,960
Speaker 6: where later in the season, if they're out of the

642
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:08,959
Speaker 6: playoff hunt, I wouldn't be surprised if they get him

643
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:12,160
Speaker 6: some work, especially given this year there wasn't a preseason.

644
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:13,959
Speaker 6: That's when you'd want to see a guy like that

645
00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:17,120
Speaker 6: get some in game action. Since they don't have a preseason,

646
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:20,400
Speaker 6: if they're out of the playoff hunt by say week fourteen,

647
00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:22,040
Speaker 6: I wouldn't be surprised if they want to see pe

648
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:25,360
Speaker 6: Ryan get more work. So that's another out that I

649
00:30:25,360 --> 00:30:29,560
Speaker 6: would say favors the under in this market. And you know,

650
00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 6: so I'm projecting him closer to seven hundred and seve

651
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:34,600
Speaker 6: hundred fifty yards with multiple outs. So that's that's why

652
00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:36,800
Speaker 6: I love taking the under still at eight hundred yards

653
00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:37,880
Speaker 6: right now for Le'Veon Bell.

654
00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 3: All right, Raymond, I'm imagining that you are also on

655
00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:43,880
Speaker 3: the under for Le'Veon Bell there, but I keep your

656
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 3: thoughts on Bell and then another prop that you like.

657
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:49,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like the under onun Bell. I was looking

658
00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:52,560
Speaker 2: at the under on his twelve hundred total rushing and

659
00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:55,480
Speaker 2: receiving yards too, because you know, even though I think

660
00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 2: he is more likely to be a pass catcher overall,

661
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:00,480
Speaker 2: there are still just a lot of out because he

662
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 2: could be inefficient as a rusher. The rushing yards could

663
00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:06,600
Speaker 2: come a way down, the carriers could come way down.

664
00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:09,280
Speaker 2: You know, he could get hurt, he could just you know,

665
00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:12,600
Speaker 2: simply be you know what happened to Kenyan Drake that

666
00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:14,920
Speaker 2: one year in Adam Gase's offense. I mean he went

667
00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:17,480
Speaker 2: games where he just didn't carry the ball essentially, and

668
00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:20,920
Speaker 2: it was just inexplicable. So I think there's just a

669
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:24,000
Speaker 2: lot of like if you're if you're betting unders, I

670
00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:26,120
Speaker 2: think one of the first guys to look at is

671
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:28,600
Speaker 2: way down Bell, So how I it a lot. I

672
00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:32,800
Speaker 2: am going with for my next one, another league lead

673
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 2: prop and it's Cooper Cup, and it's the lead the

674
00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 2: league in touchdown of receiving touchdowns at forty to one.

675
00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:42,400
Speaker 2: Cooper Cup. You know, in what kind of people consider

676
00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:45,240
Speaker 2: that end year for him? Last year, at least the

677
00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:49,760
Speaker 2: second half still scored ten touchdowns, and you know, you

678
00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:52,200
Speaker 2: look at that and say, you know, touchdowns are likely

679
00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:55,160
Speaker 2: to regress, but you look at Cups numbers and he

680
00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:57,920
Speaker 2: has been one of the top red zone targets in

681
00:31:57,960 --> 00:32:02,160
Speaker 2: the league, clearly Jared Goff's favorite opt fifteen touchdowns on

682
00:32:02,240 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 2: forty eight red zone targets over the last three years.

683
00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:07,800
Speaker 2: And even though he missed that half year, you know,

684
00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:11,840
Speaker 2: he's still well ahead of you know, Robert Woods and

685
00:32:11,880 --> 00:32:13,479
Speaker 2: all the other guys if you kind of put them

686
00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:16,760
Speaker 2: together in that RAMS offense in terms of red zone targets,

687
00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:20,040
Speaker 2: and Jared Goff I think can offset you know, some

688
00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:22,480
Speaker 2: of you know, if you if you expect Cup to

689
00:32:22,520 --> 00:32:24,560
Speaker 2: maybe regress a little bit, I think you also have

690
00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:28,120
Speaker 2: to expect Goff to improve on his touchdown rate, because

691
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:30,479
Speaker 2: he only threw twenty two passing touchdowns last year. And

692
00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:34,000
Speaker 2: he threw forty six hundred yards, so usually you're gonna

693
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:36,440
Speaker 2: see that passing touchdown number. I come back a little

694
00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:40,480
Speaker 2: closer to in line with the yardage, and again, this

695
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 2: is Cup is a guy who got ten of twenty

696
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 2: two touchdowns from GoF there's major upside there. So at

697
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:48,520
Speaker 2: forty to one for a guy who put up ten

698
00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 2: touchdowns last year, I'm going to take that bet.

699
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:54,479
Speaker 3: We're going to have an opinion from from Mike on

700
00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:58,320
Speaker 3: this later, so I'm looking forward to that. But you know, Raybon,

701
00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:00,920
Speaker 3: I can't say that. I just agree with the logic.

702
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:03,400
Speaker 3: I think at forty to one, there's a little bit

703
00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:07,000
Speaker 3: of value considering how frequently Cup has been has been

704
00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:10,320
Speaker 3: targeted in the end zone, so I think there's or

705
00:33:10,600 --> 00:33:12,320
Speaker 3: at least near the end zone, so I think there's

706
00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:16,960
Speaker 3: some intrigue there. I'll put it that way. Okay, one guy,

707
00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:20,920
Speaker 3: I'm going over on and Mike, I'm definitely going to

708
00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:23,960
Speaker 3: want your thoughts on this because it's very much a projection.

709
00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:29,720
Speaker 3: Drew Locke over thirty four hundred and fifty yards passing. Now,

710
00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:33,040
Speaker 3: let me tell you where this is coming from. I

711
00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:36,920
Speaker 3: think that the Denver Broncos offense I mean, obviously last

712
00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:40,680
Speaker 3: year it was a travesty, three different quarterbacks and an

713
00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:44,600
Speaker 3: offensive coordinator who now is no longer there in rich Skanggraylo.

714
00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:48,120
Speaker 3: I think with Pat Shermer as the offensive coordinator, we

715
00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:51,600
Speaker 3: saw over the past four seasons with four different quarterbacks,

716
00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 3: none of whom was really all that good of a quarterback,

717
00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:58,440
Speaker 3: We've seen him have offenses that played at a pretty

718
00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:02,600
Speaker 3: brisk pace through at a pretty high rate, and so

719
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:06,400
Speaker 3: I think this Broncos offense is going to skew more

720
00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:09,400
Speaker 3: towards the past than what we saw last year. And

721
00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 3: so I'm, you know, maybe just a little too optimistic

722
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:15,319
Speaker 3: on what that means for Drew Lock, who, progressing from

723
00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:18,200
Speaker 3: year one to year two, I think could actually do

724
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:21,640
Speaker 3: a pretty good job of leveraging the receiving weapons that

725
00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:24,560
Speaker 3: he has. Not only Courtland Sutton and Noah Fance, who

726
00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:26,440
Speaker 3: I think will take a pretty big step forward in

727
00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:29,200
Speaker 3: his second year, we also have the additions of Jerry

728
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:33,000
Speaker 3: Judy and kJ Hamler, who I think should be upgrades

729
00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:36,440
Speaker 3: on what Denver had last year, and then also Melvin Gordon,

730
00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:40,120
Speaker 3: who is I think, at least for his size and

731
00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:44,879
Speaker 3: above average receiving back. So I'm barely optimistic on Drew

732
00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:49,480
Speaker 3: Locke at thirty four hundred or thirty four hundred and fifty.

733
00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:51,839
Speaker 3: I just I think that number is too low by

734
00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:53,440
Speaker 3: maybe three hundred yards.

735
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:56,440
Speaker 4: I am, I'm a thirty six oh one. I'm with you.

736
00:34:56,800 --> 00:34:58,640
Speaker 4: I would lean toward the over here. I will say this,

737
00:34:58,760 --> 00:35:01,879
Speaker 4: I'm at ninety five percent projected dropback, So that may

738
00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:04,640
Speaker 4: be optimistic depending on what you think about Lock, but

739
00:35:05,320 --> 00:35:07,880
Speaker 4: I think he's I think Locke is one of the

740
00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:10,799
Speaker 4: biggest wild cards in the NFL this season, I honestly do.

741
00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:13,560
Speaker 4: I mean that the team is ready around him. I

742
00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:15,400
Speaker 4: know the offense is young, but they have the skilled

743
00:35:15,400 --> 00:35:19,600
Speaker 4: position players there with Sutton and Sutton, Gordon Lindsey. Of

744
00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:23,120
Speaker 4: course you mentioned the rookies there, Handler and Judy. I

745
00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:26,239
Speaker 4: love Noah Fan. The offensive line even without James, with

746
00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:28,640
Speaker 4: James opting out, I think is okay. And the defense,

747
00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:30,560
Speaker 4: I mean Vic Bangeo is his best defense since he

748
00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:32,640
Speaker 4: was in Chicago back in twenty eighteen. That could be

749
00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:35,759
Speaker 4: a top five unit. So that Denver is a really

750
00:35:35,760 --> 00:35:38,360
Speaker 4: intriguing team. Locke is interesting, and I'll tell you what,

751
00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:40,640
Speaker 4: if he's even competent this year, I think he can

752
00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:42,960
Speaker 4: get somewhere in the vicinity of this line and certainly

753
00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:45,279
Speaker 4: get the Broncos to the playoffs, So kind of a

754
00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:47,640
Speaker 4: lot in there, Maybe a little bit on the Broncos

755
00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:49,799
Speaker 4: yes to making the playoffs kind of thing, or the

756
00:35:49,840 --> 00:35:51,919
Speaker 4: over which I like for them too, But I would

757
00:35:51,960 --> 00:35:53,359
Speaker 4: lean toward the over here if I had to make

758
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:55,720
Speaker 4: this bet. But it makes me nervous because we know, guys,

759
00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:58,320
Speaker 4: the history of second round quarterbacks not so hot in

760
00:35:58,360 --> 00:35:58,840
Speaker 4: the NFL.

761
00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:01,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, certainly a wide range of outcomes here, and if

762
00:36:01,760 --> 00:36:04,480
Speaker 3: it didn't work out, you can easily imagine how we

763
00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:07,879
Speaker 3: get to that point. So you know, I can see

764
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:11,000
Speaker 3: the case for the under here. Mike, give us your

765
00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:14,239
Speaker 3: second favorite season one prop number two.

766
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:16,839
Speaker 4: Okay, we're gonna go back to the underwell here. And

767
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:18,800
Speaker 4: this is tough because I've been a little bit of

768
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:22,719
Speaker 4: a DeAndre Hopkins apologist, if you will, based on some

769
00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:26,319
Speaker 4: of the football Twitter pushback, if you will, on his

770
00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:28,960
Speaker 4: projections and his fantasy appeal for this season. I think

771
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:30,680
Speaker 4: he'll be fine, And you know, I do think that

772
00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:33,080
Speaker 4: his target chair will come down a little bit from Houston,

773
00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:35,560
Speaker 4: but he's still I think will get enough volume to

774
00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:39,600
Speaker 4: be a top fantasy receiver. That being said, his touchdown

775
00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:42,840
Speaker 4: reception line is eight and a half right now at Caesars.

776
00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:45,680
Speaker 4: I think that is too high. You might think, Okay,

777
00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:48,719
Speaker 4: Hopkins has been a superstar. He's been terrific. Is pretty

778
00:36:48,800 --> 00:36:50,960
Speaker 4: much his whole career in fantasy at you know, top five,

779
00:36:51,040 --> 00:36:54,480
Speaker 4: top three option for the most part. And still he

780
00:36:54,480 --> 00:36:57,040
Speaker 4: has been under seven touchdown catches in four of the

781
00:36:57,160 --> 00:37:00,719
Speaker 4: seven NFL season So he hasn't really delivered high numbers

782
00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:03,839
Speaker 4: at times in that category. And that, by the way,

783
00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:06,520
Speaker 4: is with two missed games during them seven seasons and

784
00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:09,000
Speaker 4: a ready around one hundred and forty eight targets per season.

785
00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:12,200
Speaker 4: That's massive volume. And still he was not getting up

786
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:15,480
Speaker 4: in this in this vicinity most of the time. Also,

787
00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:17,920
Speaker 4: he's going to a Cardinals offense that scored fifty three

788
00:37:17,920 --> 00:37:19,960
Speaker 4: percent of their touchdowns through the air last season, that

789
00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:23,040
Speaker 4: was fourth lowest in the NFL. Perhaps that'll regress a

790
00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:25,600
Speaker 4: little bit with the new you know, the new personnel

791
00:37:25,600 --> 00:37:27,920
Speaker 4: in that offense. That's fine, but that's something to think about.

792
00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:30,439
Speaker 4: And also, guys, the last nugget here, it's a high

793
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:33,120
Speaker 4: bar to get to only six receivers reach nine touchdowns

794
00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:36,759
Speaker 4: in twenty nineteen. So my projection seven point seven still

795
00:37:36,800 --> 00:37:39,319
Speaker 4: a decent number, a generous number, enough for him to

796
00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:41,840
Speaker 4: be a top five fantasy wide receiver, but eight and

797
00:37:41,880 --> 00:37:42,960
Speaker 4: a half just too high for me.

798
00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:45,680
Speaker 3: I'm a little even more pessimistic now. I have him

799
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:48,399
Speaker 3: at seven point one touchdowns, which is probably too low.

800
00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:51,160
Speaker 3: But Sean, I'd like to get your thoughts on Hopkins.

801
00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:53,040
Speaker 6: Yeah, I have him at seven point one as well.

802
00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:56,000
Speaker 6: I love the pick. It just missed my cut, so

803
00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:58,160
Speaker 6: glad we got to talk about it. But yeah, I agree.

804
00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:00,279
Speaker 6: You know, for a team that runs so many four

805
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:02,719
Speaker 6: wide receiver sets and doesn't really you know, they're not

806
00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:04,640
Speaker 6: going to generate many passing touchdowns.

807
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:06,719
Speaker 2: I love this pick. Again.

808
00:38:06,800 --> 00:38:08,879
Speaker 6: I think Hopkins is still one of the top five

809
00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:11,919
Speaker 6: receivers in the league, but his presence will probably open

810
00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:15,280
Speaker 6: up Christian Kirk a lot more. I've always felt Christian

811
00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:18,960
Speaker 6: Kirk was better suited for a number two roll anyway,

812
00:38:19,040 --> 00:38:21,080
Speaker 6: so I think he'll make the offense better, but it

813
00:38:21,120 --> 00:38:23,920
Speaker 6: won't come via, you know, touchdowns to him, So I

814
00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:26,960
Speaker 6: love the pick. Sticking with the Cardinals, my next pick

815
00:38:27,120 --> 00:38:31,120
Speaker 6: is Dan Arnold over twenty five and a half receptions.

816
00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 6: Just kidding, now, my next pick is Justin Jefferson under

817
00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:40,360
Speaker 6: five and a half receiving touchdowns. The prices it dropped

818
00:38:40,360 --> 00:38:42,400
Speaker 6: to minus one thirty six. I still like it at

819
00:38:42,400 --> 00:38:46,120
Speaker 6: that price, And before you know, betting on rookie props,

820
00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:49,640
Speaker 6: I like to at least put my projections in historical context.

821
00:38:49,840 --> 00:38:52,919
Speaker 6: And there's been thirty three wide receivers drafting the first

822
00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:56,399
Speaker 6: round since twenty ten, and only nine have scored six

823
00:38:56,480 --> 00:38:59,799
Speaker 6: or more touchdowns. So that's a twenty seven percent rate.

824
00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:03,520
Speaker 6: And you could definitely argue that Justin Jefferson he's going

825
00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:07,080
Speaker 6: to land in the above average situation in terms of

826
00:39:07,120 --> 00:39:09,359
Speaker 6: potentially being the number two wide receiver out of the gate.

827
00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:12,799
Speaker 6: This is still a run heavy offense. I'm projecting Kirk

828
00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:15,120
Speaker 6: Cousins for a league average twenty five and a half

829
00:39:15,320 --> 00:39:19,240
Speaker 6: passing touchdowns. He'll have to compete with Adam Thielen, Kyle Rudolph,

830
00:39:19,239 --> 00:39:21,040
Speaker 6: and IRV Smith in the red zone, and you know

831
00:39:21,120 --> 00:39:23,759
Speaker 6: Dalvin Cook of course. So you know, I think this

832
00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:26,480
Speaker 6: projection is a bit too high. I have it closer

833
00:39:26,520 --> 00:39:29,040
Speaker 6: to four and a half, which you know, again putting

834
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 6: in historical context, would still put Justin Jefferson, you know,

835
00:39:32,760 --> 00:39:35,960
Speaker 6: the top third in terms of first round rookie wide receivers.

836
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:38,960
Speaker 6: So he's a guy I like his long term potential

837
00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 6: in dynasty formats and whatnot. But you know, when it

838
00:39:42,120 --> 00:39:44,640
Speaker 6: comes to his rookie season a prop like this, it's

839
00:39:44,719 --> 00:39:47,319
Speaker 6: usually advantageous to take the under. So I like the

840
00:39:47,400 --> 00:39:50,239
Speaker 6: under five and a half receiving touchdowns for Justin Jefferson.

841
00:39:50,880 --> 00:39:55,640
Speaker 3: I've Jefferson at four point eight receiving touchdowns, Raybond, I'm

842
00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:57,879
Speaker 3: curious where you have him and what your thoughts are

843
00:39:57,920 --> 00:39:58,400
Speaker 3: on the prop.

844
00:39:58,880 --> 00:40:02,400
Speaker 2: I have Jefferson at I'm imagining it's got to be

845
00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 2: lowered just because I don't see that offense throwing a

846
00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:08,040
Speaker 2: whole lot. I think they're gonna even though Stefanski's gone,

847
00:40:08,040 --> 00:40:11,040
Speaker 2: I think they're gonna continue to be pretty run heavy,

848
00:40:11,600 --> 00:40:13,440
Speaker 2: just you know, giving the way they're built. So yeah,

849
00:40:13,480 --> 00:40:17,600
Speaker 2: I have Jefferson at three and a half. So yeah,

850
00:40:17,719 --> 00:40:18,439
Speaker 2: I'm way under.

851
00:40:19,200 --> 00:40:23,879
Speaker 3: Give us your second favorite player prop for twenty twenty, so.

852
00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:27,000
Speaker 2: It's another you know, touchdown leader one and again, like

853
00:40:27,080 --> 00:40:30,440
Speaker 2: I would never bet overs on pretty much any fifty

854
00:40:30,480 --> 00:40:33,239
Speaker 2: to fifty props, so like any touchdown prop, like, you know,

855
00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:36,080
Speaker 2: even if I had Jefferson at you know, seven touchdowns,

856
00:40:36,200 --> 00:40:37,920
Speaker 2: I would I still wouldn't touch the over because I

857
00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:40,400
Speaker 2: think it's I just think they're bad bets. There's not

858
00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:43,040
Speaker 2: a lot of upside on betting the over, and then

859
00:40:43,080 --> 00:40:46,200
Speaker 2: there's you know, there's just all downside, and then it's

860
00:40:46,239 --> 00:40:49,160
Speaker 2: not really that great to bet the under either because

861
00:40:49,160 --> 00:40:51,040
Speaker 2: you're it's just still a fifty to fifty prop rate

862
00:40:51,160 --> 00:40:53,319
Speaker 2: waiting like six months for so you know that that's

863
00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:55,600
Speaker 2: where I'm on that I want the great odds. So

864
00:40:55,680 --> 00:40:58,360
Speaker 2: I think Marvin Joe, I think both of the Detroit

865
00:40:58,400 --> 00:41:01,080
Speaker 2: receivers really, but I'll go with Oes because he's cheaper

866
00:41:01,400 --> 00:41:03,319
Speaker 2: and he's kind of being swept on in fantasy as well.

867
00:41:03,360 --> 00:41:06,480
Speaker 2: But to lead the league in receiving touchdowns at thirty

868
00:41:06,480 --> 00:41:09,319
Speaker 2: three to one. And the thing about Jones, I think

869
00:41:09,320 --> 00:41:13,560
Speaker 2: people you know, probably say, hey, he only actually scored

870
00:41:14,200 --> 00:41:16,560
Speaker 2: in a few games because he had four touchdowns in

871
00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:19,720
Speaker 2: one game. But you look at what Jones has done

872
00:41:20,120 --> 00:41:23,480
Speaker 2: just in his career, and he's had some huge touchdown seasons.

873
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:25,719
Speaker 2: He's been a high variance player and that's exactly what

874
00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:27,920
Speaker 2: you want. And also a lot of people are kind

875
00:41:27,920 --> 00:41:32,120
Speaker 2: of overlooking just how much the the scheme changed last

876
00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:35,600
Speaker 2: year for Matthew Stafford in Detroit with Daryl Bevill, and

877
00:41:35,640 --> 00:41:37,520
Speaker 2: we don't think if Darryl Bevill is like this guy

878
00:41:37,560 --> 00:41:41,200
Speaker 2: that's opening things up. But Matthew Stafford went from a

879
00:41:42,000 --> 00:41:44,920
Speaker 2: seven point nine to a dot to a you know,

880
00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:48,719
Speaker 2: a top two a dot at ten point six last year.

881
00:41:48,800 --> 00:41:50,640
Speaker 2: Now he only played eight games, so we didn't really

882
00:41:50,719 --> 00:41:52,920
Speaker 2: kind of forgot about him a little bit. But this

883
00:41:52,960 --> 00:41:55,000
Speaker 2: is a guy that was, you know, kem we putting

884
00:41:55,080 --> 00:41:58,799
Speaker 2: up three hundred yard passing games and he's through nineteen touchdowns.

885
00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:01,080
Speaker 2: So I think there's a there's a good chance that,

886
00:42:01,120 --> 00:42:03,399
Speaker 2: like if Matthew Stafford is healthy for a full year,

887
00:42:04,200 --> 00:42:06,279
Speaker 2: that Gallaudi and Jones are going to be right back

888
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:07,600
Speaker 2: near the top of that that Leed and.

889
00:42:07,600 --> 00:42:10,240
Speaker 4: Bordon put up big numbers. So I'm going with Jones

890
00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:12,360
Speaker 4: at thirty three to one to we league in TDS.

891
00:42:12,680 --> 00:42:14,120
Speaker 3: I like that one. I mean, one of the things

892
00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:16,840
Speaker 3: that he definitely has going for him is that Stafford

893
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:19,440
Speaker 3: has the willingness to throw the ball down the field,

894
00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:22,759
Speaker 3: which you know, if things skew just a little in

895
00:42:22,800 --> 00:42:26,279
Speaker 3: his direction, could could result in some extra touchdowns. The

896
00:42:26,320 --> 00:42:31,200
Speaker 3: guy I have as my second favorite prop is Ben Roethlisberger. Again,

897
00:42:31,560 --> 00:42:34,160
Speaker 3: I'm hitting those overs, and I think it's a situation

898
00:42:34,280 --> 00:42:37,239
Speaker 3: similar to what we saw with Cam Newton in the

899
00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:40,560
Speaker 3: prop that Sean mentioned, where there's something of an injury

900
00:42:40,600 --> 00:42:44,960
Speaker 3: discount or an injury penalty that's being factored into the prop.

901
00:42:45,360 --> 00:42:48,839
Speaker 3: So I'm kind of combining and looking at two props here,

902
00:42:49,719 --> 00:42:52,760
Speaker 3: the over of thirty eight hundred and a half yards

903
00:42:52,840 --> 00:42:56,479
Speaker 3: passing and the over of twenty five and a half

904
00:42:56,560 --> 00:43:00,720
Speaker 3: touchdowns passing. I just think those numbers are too low

905
00:43:01,200 --> 00:43:05,040
Speaker 3: historically based on what Roethlisberger has done when he's been healthy.

906
00:43:05,800 --> 00:43:09,239
Speaker 3: He's gone over thirty eight hundred yards in each of

907
00:43:09,280 --> 00:43:12,919
Speaker 3: the past six seasons, not counting twenty nineteen, of course,

908
00:43:12,960 --> 00:43:15,600
Speaker 3: when he played only two games, and he's gone over

909
00:43:15,800 --> 00:43:18,200
Speaker 3: twenty five and a half touchdowns in five of those

910
00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:22,120
Speaker 3: six years. I'm projecting for this to be closer to

911
00:43:23,760 --> 00:43:27,360
Speaker 3: I mean, like forty four hundred yards twenty eight twenty

912
00:43:27,440 --> 00:43:30,600
Speaker 3: nine touchdowns. Maybe I'm being optimistic here, but I don't

913
00:43:30,640 --> 00:43:32,680
Speaker 3: even need to be all that optimistic I think for

914
00:43:32,760 --> 00:43:37,520
Speaker 3: the overs here to hit. So I think that these

915
00:43:37,640 --> 00:43:40,520
Speaker 3: numbers are being dragged down by potentially the idea that

916
00:43:40,600 --> 00:43:44,600
Speaker 3: Roethlisberger plays only twelve games or only thirteen games, which like,

917
00:43:45,080 --> 00:43:48,880
Speaker 3: maybe that happens. You know, Roethelisberger will probably be fourteen

918
00:43:48,920 --> 00:43:51,319
Speaker 3: to fifteen games. But I think even if he's only

919
00:43:51,400 --> 00:43:55,480
Speaker 3: fourteen games, he probably hits the over on thirty eight hundred,

920
00:43:55,600 --> 00:43:59,600
Speaker 3: So thirty eight hundred and then adding the touchdowns of

921
00:43:59,640 --> 00:44:01,600
Speaker 3: over two twenty five and a half, that one, I'm

922
00:44:01,640 --> 00:44:05,719
Speaker 3: not quite is on board, but I still think there's

923
00:44:05,800 --> 00:44:08,280
Speaker 3: value there. But Mike, I want to get your thoughts

924
00:44:08,280 --> 00:44:09,240
Speaker 3: on Roethlisberger.

925
00:44:09,840 --> 00:44:10,399
Speaker 2: I like it.

926
00:44:10,520 --> 00:44:11,280
Speaker 3: I like it.

927
00:44:11,200 --> 00:44:13,719
Speaker 4: It was certainly the passing yards. So my projection's at

928
00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:16,920
Speaker 4: fourteen point three games played and I have him at

929
00:44:16,920 --> 00:44:19,200
Speaker 4: thirty eight to seventy five in terms of passing yards.

930
00:44:19,200 --> 00:44:21,880
Speaker 4: Remember this was the past heaviest offense in the NFL

931
00:44:22,000 --> 00:44:25,480
Speaker 4: the season before you know he obviously in twenty eighteen.

932
00:44:25,560 --> 00:44:28,279
Speaker 4: Last season he barely played, so that's something to keep

933
00:44:28,280 --> 00:44:31,720
Speaker 4: in mind. Love the passing yardage. As for the touchdowns,

934
00:44:31,760 --> 00:44:33,840
Speaker 4: I'm at twenty five point two, so that one's a

935
00:44:33,880 --> 00:44:36,760
Speaker 4: little too close for comfort. But again that's a fourteen

936
00:44:36,800 --> 00:44:39,400
Speaker 4: point two game, so if you want to inject some confidence,

937
00:44:39,400 --> 00:44:42,040
Speaker 4: he gets to fifteen or even sixteen games, then yeah,

938
00:44:42,080 --> 00:44:44,239
Speaker 4: I mean certainly he would go over this number. And

939
00:44:44,280 --> 00:44:46,359
Speaker 4: by the way, just to rewind, I should have thrown

940
00:44:46,400 --> 00:44:48,440
Speaker 4: this in before, but I thought it was interesting. On

941
00:44:48,480 --> 00:44:52,000
Speaker 4: the Marvin Jones prop, Marvin Jones went down with the

942
00:44:52,040 --> 00:44:54,359
Speaker 4: injury last season. He missed the last three weeks. At

943
00:44:54,360 --> 00:44:57,200
Speaker 4: that point, Kenny Galladay led the NFL on touchdown catches

944
00:44:57,239 --> 00:44:59,480
Speaker 4: with ten, Marvin Jones was tied for second with nine,

945
00:44:59,680 --> 00:45:02,200
Speaker 4: and that with Matthew Stafford missing five of those games.

946
00:45:02,239 --> 00:45:05,839
Speaker 4: So just to your point that obviously there's a lot

947
00:45:05,880 --> 00:45:08,440
Speaker 4: of touchdown volume in that Lion's passing.

948
00:45:08,160 --> 00:45:11,200
Speaker 3: Game, Mike, I want to get your your number one

949
00:45:11,200 --> 00:45:13,720
Speaker 3: prop for the season. In a second, I see Sean

950
00:45:13,760 --> 00:45:16,080
Speaker 3: over there, you know, kind of moving his head around

951
00:45:16,080 --> 00:45:19,040
Speaker 3: when we're talking about Roethlisberger. Sean, it seems like you

952
00:45:19,120 --> 00:45:20,759
Speaker 3: might have some thoughts you want to talk about with

953
00:45:20,800 --> 00:45:21,320
Speaker 3: Big Ben.

954
00:45:21,840 --> 00:45:23,799
Speaker 6: I'm probably not on the over I get it if

955
00:45:23,840 --> 00:45:26,840
Speaker 6: you think he's gonna he's gonna play at least fifteen games,

956
00:45:27,120 --> 00:45:29,840
Speaker 6: and all reports seem like his elbows on issue.

957
00:45:30,160 --> 00:45:32,040
Speaker 2: When it comes to Big Ben.

958
00:45:32,239 --> 00:45:34,759
Speaker 6: The one thing I'm worried about is his defense could

959
00:45:34,840 --> 00:45:36,799
Speaker 6: be elite, you know, I think that could be one

960
00:45:36,800 --> 00:45:39,200
Speaker 6: of the best defenses in the league, So we might

961
00:45:39,239 --> 00:45:41,839
Speaker 6: not see the same old Ben where he's you know,

962
00:45:41,880 --> 00:45:43,160
Speaker 6: throwing over six hundred times.

963
00:45:43,160 --> 00:45:44,480
Speaker 2: So that's my only caution with that.

964
00:45:44,560 --> 00:45:48,560
Speaker 6: But I do agree that oftentimes injury luck is kind

965
00:45:48,560 --> 00:45:51,439
Speaker 6: of overblown, so that's get buying the over. But yeah,

966
00:45:51,480 --> 00:45:52,600
Speaker 6: I would say it's a good line.

967
00:45:53,480 --> 00:45:56,680
Speaker 3: Interesting, So you think I am way optimistic?

968
00:45:56,719 --> 00:45:59,600
Speaker 6: Oh no, I would say way optimistic. I could see

969
00:45:59,600 --> 00:46:02,880
Speaker 6: your point. Again, I'm similar to Mike where I haven't

970
00:46:02,920 --> 00:46:07,000
Speaker 6: projected for fourteen point eight games and I still have

971
00:46:07,200 --> 00:46:10,759
Speaker 6: him over in the yardage. The one thing that I'm

972
00:46:10,760 --> 00:46:13,560
Speaker 6: probably in line with is probably the passing touchdowns. I

973
00:46:13,600 --> 00:46:15,480
Speaker 6: have that exactly at twenty six and a half. So

974
00:46:15,719 --> 00:46:18,120
Speaker 6: I would agree with Mike that passing touchdowns would be

975
00:46:18,160 --> 00:46:20,320
Speaker 6: the only market that I'd probably stay away.

976
00:46:20,120 --> 00:46:20,680
Speaker 4: From with him.

977
00:46:21,080 --> 00:46:25,239
Speaker 3: Okay, Mike, give us the number one player prop that

978
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:27,040
Speaker 3: you like for this upcoming season.

979
00:46:27,440 --> 00:46:28,800
Speaker 4: All right, Well, I might have to go head to

980
00:46:28,840 --> 00:46:31,160
Speaker 4: head with Raybond here because I'm going to go almost

981
00:46:31,239 --> 00:46:33,919
Speaker 4: directly against one of his Now, again, it's a little

982
00:46:33,920 --> 00:46:36,440
Speaker 4: bit different because he was going forty to one for

983
00:46:36,480 --> 00:46:39,840
Speaker 4: Cooper Cup to leave the NFL in touchdowns. That's obviously

984
00:46:39,840 --> 00:46:43,120
Speaker 4: more appealing than taking over seven and a half receiving touchdowns,

985
00:46:43,120 --> 00:46:45,120
Speaker 4: which is what his line is at Caesars. I'm way

986
00:46:45,200 --> 00:46:46,880
Speaker 4: on the under on this when even at minus a

987
00:46:46,920 --> 00:46:50,600
Speaker 4: dollar twenty. Look, I get that he has produced touchdowns,

988
00:46:50,600 --> 00:46:52,120
Speaker 4: but we have to look a little bit closer here.

989
00:46:52,560 --> 00:46:55,480
Speaker 4: Six touchdowns in eight games in twenty eighteen. At ten

990
00:46:55,560 --> 00:46:59,120
Speaker 4: touchdowns in sixteen games last season, that obviously would lean

991
00:46:59,160 --> 00:47:01,239
Speaker 4: toward the over here if you're just kind of extrapolating

992
00:47:01,280 --> 00:47:04,360
Speaker 4: those numbers. But here's the thing is OTD during that

993
00:47:04,400 --> 00:47:06,800
Speaker 4: span was eight point two total in the two seasons.

994
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:09,200
Speaker 4: He was just way over his head based on the

995
00:47:09,200 --> 00:47:12,360
Speaker 4: opportunity he actually had. In fact, last season there was

996
00:47:12,400 --> 00:47:14,560
Speaker 4: a four point three gap between his touchdown total and

997
00:47:14,600 --> 00:47:18,319
Speaker 4: his OTD that was ninth highest in the NFL. He

998
00:47:18,360 --> 00:47:21,080
Speaker 4: actually only had six end zone targets that was thirty

999
00:47:21,080 --> 00:47:23,640
Speaker 4: sixth in the NFL. He got five of those. Obviously,

1000
00:47:23,640 --> 00:47:26,279
Speaker 4: that's a rate that you would not expect to continue.

1001
00:47:26,520 --> 00:47:28,680
Speaker 4: Only fifteen en zone targets in his career, which is

1002
00:47:28,680 --> 00:47:32,000
Speaker 4: a very low number. And again, sometimes when I throw

1003
00:47:32,440 --> 00:47:34,680
Speaker 4: data out like that, people will say, well, he's good

1004
00:47:34,680 --> 00:47:37,799
Speaker 4: at scoring touchdowns. History says that there's not really any

1005
00:47:37,840 --> 00:47:39,960
Speaker 4: players who are good at scoring touchdowns. You'll see it

1006
00:47:39,960 --> 00:47:42,879
Speaker 4: in small samples like Odell Beckham's first three years or

1007
00:47:43,080 --> 00:47:46,120
Speaker 4: the absolute peak of Rob Gronkowski, but even those guys

1008
00:47:46,160 --> 00:47:48,200
Speaker 4: come crashing back to earth. We've seen that with Grog

1009
00:47:48,280 --> 00:47:50,680
Speaker 4: during his final years in New England. We saw it

1010
00:47:50,760 --> 00:47:53,000
Speaker 4: with Odell Beckham as well. That was a predictable fall

1011
00:47:53,040 --> 00:47:55,160
Speaker 4: in terms of touchdown production from him. We see a

1012
00:47:55,200 --> 00:47:57,799
Speaker 4: time and time again volume is a skill. Snaps our

1013
00:47:58,160 --> 00:48:01,200
Speaker 4: skill being thrown the ball near the goal one that volume,

1014
00:48:01,280 --> 00:48:04,120
Speaker 4: that's a skill. Just in terms of actually the ability

1015
00:48:04,120 --> 00:48:07,040
Speaker 4: to be better at others than scoring touchdowns, turning touches

1016
00:48:07,080 --> 00:48:09,279
Speaker 4: into touchdowns, it just doesn't seem to be there. So

1017
00:48:09,960 --> 00:48:12,600
Speaker 4: I don't certainly not buy that argument. Also, we have

1018
00:48:12,680 --> 00:48:15,359
Speaker 4: to mention this his playing time took a huge dive

1019
00:48:15,360 --> 00:48:17,680
Speaker 4: in the final quarter of the season. Snaps plummeted, routes

1020
00:48:17,719 --> 00:48:20,760
Speaker 4: plummeted target share down from twenty five to fifteen percent,

1021
00:48:21,040 --> 00:48:23,440
Speaker 4: and they went with more twelve perconnel packages, which we're

1022
00:48:23,440 --> 00:48:25,960
Speaker 4: going to see again this season. So guys, I'm at

1023
00:48:26,280 --> 00:48:30,279
Speaker 4: five point six with my projection for Cooper Cup. I'm

1024
00:48:30,280 --> 00:48:32,560
Speaker 4: down on him in fantasy. I think he's a borderline

1025
00:48:32,560 --> 00:48:34,880
Speaker 4: top twenty guy, but not the top ten guy he

1026
00:48:35,000 --> 00:48:38,319
Speaker 4: was last season. So again that gap five point six

1027
00:48:38,400 --> 00:48:40,680
Speaker 4: to seven point five for me, that's super appealing.

1028
00:48:40,719 --> 00:48:44,160
Speaker 3: On the under dynasty junkie that I am, I must

1029
00:48:44,200 --> 00:48:47,719
Speaker 3: ask this question. It seems like you would be saying

1030
00:48:47,719 --> 00:48:50,600
Speaker 3: that now is an optimal time to sell high on

1031
00:48:50,680 --> 00:48:54,320
Speaker 3: Cooper Cup. He had, along with Kenny Galladay, one thousand

1032
00:48:54,400 --> 00:48:57,160
Speaker 3: yards and ten touchdowns last year, just one of two

1033
00:48:57,200 --> 00:49:00,000
Speaker 3: receivers in the league to do that. But you are

1034
00:49:00,080 --> 00:49:02,040
Speaker 3: pessimistic on what he could do this year, and he's

1035
00:49:02,120 --> 00:49:04,640
Speaker 3: he's older than people think he is, given that he

1036
00:49:04,680 --> 00:49:07,080
Speaker 3: was twenty four years old as a rookie. So in dynasty,

1037
00:49:07,520 --> 00:49:09,040
Speaker 3: this could be the time to sell him.

1038
00:49:09,280 --> 00:49:11,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that's fair, And I mean that's a

1039
00:49:11,680 --> 00:49:13,920
Speaker 4: good point you say about him being older than he appears,

1040
00:49:14,200 --> 00:49:16,160
Speaker 4: which is another reason why you might want a field

1041
00:49:16,200 --> 00:49:18,480
Speaker 4: some offers. But yeah, it's crazy. I mean, he's only

1042
00:49:18,480 --> 00:49:20,719
Speaker 4: a year younger than Robert Woods. Robert Woods feels a

1043
00:49:20,719 --> 00:49:22,320
Speaker 4: lot older because he was what twenty one when the

1044
00:49:22,320 --> 00:49:24,680
Speaker 4: Bills drafted him. He's been around much longer four year

1045
00:49:24,719 --> 00:49:27,600
Speaker 4: difference actually when when those two entered the league. So yeah,

1046
00:49:27,680 --> 00:49:29,719
Speaker 4: I think that's I think it's a great time to

1047
00:49:30,080 --> 00:49:31,760
Speaker 4: be exploring options.

1048
00:49:31,840 --> 00:49:36,560
Speaker 3: All right, Sean thoughts on the Cup under there and

1049
00:49:36,600 --> 00:49:38,319
Speaker 3: then your your number one.

1050
00:49:38,640 --> 00:49:41,960
Speaker 6: Yeah, this is the Cup receiving touchdown market is fascinating

1051
00:49:42,000 --> 00:49:44,240
Speaker 6: to me, So I have him projected at six point seven.

1052
00:49:44,520 --> 00:49:46,120
Speaker 6: I do like the under seven and a half, but

1053
00:49:46,640 --> 00:49:50,080
Speaker 6: DraftKings is offering six, so I would I would try

1054
00:49:50,120 --> 00:49:53,520
Speaker 6: to middle those. You know, if you take the under

1055
00:49:53,840 --> 00:49:57,120
Speaker 6: seven and a half and over six, if you get

1056
00:49:57,160 --> 00:49:59,040
Speaker 6: six exactly, you win one bet and you get a

1057
00:49:59,040 --> 00:50:01,719
Speaker 6: push on the other, you know, So there's.

1058
00:50:01,520 --> 00:50:02,600
Speaker 2: A middle ground there.

1059
00:50:02,920 --> 00:50:05,359
Speaker 6: And I'm also with Raybon on the forty to one

1060
00:50:05,400 --> 00:50:07,399
Speaker 6: to lead the league of receiving touchdowns. Again, I think

1061
00:50:07,400 --> 00:50:10,280
Speaker 6: this speaks to the range of outcomes that two books

1062
00:50:10,280 --> 00:50:13,319
Speaker 6: are this this far off where I have Cup ranked

1063
00:50:13,320 --> 00:50:17,120
Speaker 6: twelfth at wide receiver with my six point seven receiving

1064
00:50:17,160 --> 00:50:20,640
Speaker 6: touchdown and the market on DK has them ranked twenty sixth.

1065
00:50:21,280 --> 00:50:24,360
Speaker 6: So that's that's kind of how I first evaluate value

1066
00:50:24,360 --> 00:50:26,800
Speaker 6: in that market. So I think forty to one probably

1067
00:50:26,840 --> 00:50:29,239
Speaker 6: offers the most upside. But again, I think, you know,

1068
00:50:29,320 --> 00:50:31,239
Speaker 6: if if you like under seven and a half, you

1069
00:50:31,239 --> 00:50:33,440
Speaker 6: could also bet on the over six and try to

1070
00:50:33,440 --> 00:50:36,520
Speaker 6: bindle that as well. But my last prompt again, these

1071
00:50:36,560 --> 00:50:38,560
Speaker 6: are my favorite markets to bet on this time. Yere

1072
00:50:38,760 --> 00:50:42,680
Speaker 6: is the most receiving yards market. You know, last year

1073
00:50:42,719 --> 00:50:44,960
Speaker 6: I mentioned Chris Godwin at one hundred to one and

1074
00:50:45,000 --> 00:50:48,759
Speaker 6: that almost hit. Unfortunately got hurt and Michael Thomas had

1075
00:50:48,800 --> 00:50:51,600
Speaker 6: to you know, have a career record breaking season, but

1076
00:50:51,880 --> 00:50:55,000
Speaker 6: you know that came close. I've already locked in Calverly

1077
00:50:55,000 --> 00:50:58,120
Speaker 6: at ninety to one. That value has evaporated. He's like

1078
00:50:58,160 --> 00:51:01,520
Speaker 6: thirty three to one at most books. But FanDuel has

1079
00:51:01,560 --> 00:51:04,719
Speaker 6: AJ Brown at fifty to one odds right now, and

1080
00:51:05,000 --> 00:51:07,920
Speaker 6: I think that is his screaming value. That's the twenty

1081
00:51:07,920 --> 00:51:12,000
Speaker 6: fourth best odds and I haven't projected twelfth in receiving yards.

1082
00:51:12,080 --> 00:51:14,880
Speaker 6: That's combining you know, running backs and tight ends as well,

1083
00:51:15,080 --> 00:51:17,920
Speaker 6: So you know this this is an over market. I'd

1084
00:51:18,040 --> 00:51:20,200
Speaker 6: rather bet on the upside and get the fifty to

1085
00:51:20,200 --> 00:51:22,959
Speaker 6: one on him. And plus you know we've talked about

1086
00:51:23,000 --> 00:51:26,799
Speaker 6: it with AJ Brown as you know, the receiving yards

1087
00:51:26,840 --> 00:51:29,440
Speaker 6: per catch at twenty and a half will absolutely go

1088
00:51:29,480 --> 00:51:31,880
Speaker 6: down this year. I have it closer to fifteen and

1089
00:51:31,920 --> 00:51:33,759
Speaker 6: a half, but you know, I expect his volume to

1090
00:51:33,800 --> 00:51:36,160
Speaker 6: go way up. He really wasn't a full time player

1091
00:51:36,239 --> 00:51:39,040
Speaker 6: until Week eleven. That was the first game where he

1092
00:51:39,080 --> 00:51:41,440
Speaker 6: played over seventy percent of the snaps. So if you

1093
00:51:41,440 --> 00:51:45,000
Speaker 6: look at the final seven games where he was, you know,

1094
00:51:45,080 --> 00:51:47,440
Speaker 6: averaging over eighty percent of the snaps, which is what

1095
00:51:47,480 --> 00:51:49,839
Speaker 6: we should expect this year, he was averaging eighty eight

1096
00:51:49,880 --> 00:51:52,719
Speaker 6: receive yards per game, So that's fourteen hundred yards over

1097
00:51:52,840 --> 00:51:55,640
Speaker 6: sixteen game span. So I think he has potential in

1098
00:51:55,680 --> 00:51:57,880
Speaker 6: this market. Again, I think we need to think of

1099
00:51:58,040 --> 00:52:00,200
Speaker 6: different outs when it comes to these kind of things.

1100
00:52:00,239 --> 00:52:03,080
Speaker 6: And a situation where Derrick Henry miss his time, well,

1101
00:52:03,120 --> 00:52:05,600
Speaker 6: you know, I think that will elevate the passing offense

1102
00:52:05,600 --> 00:52:08,160
Speaker 6: for the Titans. They will throw more and that would

1103
00:52:08,200 --> 00:52:10,440
Speaker 6: play into this. So I think there's a lot of

1104
00:52:10,440 --> 00:52:14,040
Speaker 6: different ways that Antio Brown offers enough upside to take

1105
00:52:14,120 --> 00:52:17,080
Speaker 6: him at fifty to one odds. And that's at fandor

1106
00:52:17,200 --> 00:52:20,200
Speaker 6: right now. So this is the market I like to

1107
00:52:20,239 --> 00:52:22,120
Speaker 6: attack the most. I think it has the most upside,

1108
00:52:22,120 --> 00:52:23,600
Speaker 6: and I think AJ Brown is the guy to have

1109
00:52:23,880 --> 00:52:24,680
Speaker 6: at fifty to one.

1110
00:52:24,920 --> 00:52:27,120
Speaker 3: Mike, I'd like to get your quick thoughts on AJ

1111
00:52:27,239 --> 00:52:29,160
Speaker 3: Brown there. So you know, on the one hand, you

1112
00:52:29,200 --> 00:52:31,360
Speaker 3: look at that offense and it seems like it's a

1113
00:52:31,480 --> 00:52:34,560
Speaker 3: very run heavy unit that we're going to have moving forward.

1114
00:52:34,800 --> 00:52:36,640
Speaker 3: On the other hand, you look at what AJ Brown

1115
00:52:36,640 --> 00:52:39,480
Speaker 3: did last year and he was so dynamic, and he

1116
00:52:39,560 --> 00:52:42,160
Speaker 3: feels like someone who could take a big step forward

1117
00:52:42,239 --> 00:52:45,560
Speaker 3: in his second season. And if that happens, you could

1118
00:52:45,560 --> 00:52:49,480
Speaker 3: see how he could compete for most receiving yards. So

1119
00:52:49,800 --> 00:52:50,719
Speaker 3: where are you on this?

1120
00:52:51,280 --> 00:52:53,799
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is a tough one. I mean, fifty to one.

1121
00:52:54,440 --> 00:52:57,480
Speaker 4: I'm totally fine with I get that. I just I

1122
00:52:57,480 --> 00:52:59,319
Speaker 4: think it's gonna be a really tough path to get there.

1123
00:52:59,360 --> 00:53:01,680
Speaker 4: I mean, I speaking the obvious, but there's you know,

1124
00:53:01,680 --> 00:53:03,319
Speaker 4: there's a few things. I mean, first of all, when

1125
00:53:03,440 --> 00:53:05,640
Speaker 4: from Week twelve on last season he led the NFL

1126
00:53:06,120 --> 00:53:08,160
Speaker 4: in receiving yards, but that took a fifteen and a

1127
00:53:08,200 --> 00:53:10,000
Speaker 4: half yards per target. I think we can all agree,

1128
00:53:10,000 --> 00:53:13,360
Speaker 4: we're all reasonable people here, that his efficiency is gonna plummet,

1129
00:53:13,440 --> 00:53:15,480
Speaker 4: and it'd still be very good, but it's gonna plummet

1130
00:53:15,520 --> 00:53:18,000
Speaker 4: from where it was last season. And you look at

1131
00:53:18,040 --> 00:53:20,720
Speaker 4: I mean when he was leading the NFL and receiving

1132
00:53:20,800 --> 00:53:22,839
Speaker 4: yards that was on thirty nine targets. The other guy's

1133
00:53:22,920 --> 00:53:26,279
Speaker 4: right behind him fifty six, seventy one, sixty six, sixty three,

1134
00:53:26,360 --> 00:53:28,840
Speaker 4: sixty nine. I mean, there were some high target totals,

1135
00:53:28,840 --> 00:53:31,960
Speaker 4: which shows you just how reliant he was on that efficiency,

1136
00:53:32,040 --> 00:53:36,040
Speaker 4: which which obviously is problematic long term. And the other

1137
00:53:36,080 --> 00:53:37,600
Speaker 4: thing I'd say is if you look at the overall

1138
00:53:37,640 --> 00:53:40,040
Speaker 4: receiving yardist leaders last season, you and Michael Thomas, who

1139
00:53:40,120 --> 00:53:42,640
Speaker 4: obviously a historic season, but even after that, Julio Jones

1140
00:53:42,640 --> 00:53:45,600
Speaker 4: pass heavy offense, Chris Godwin high volume playing for behind

1141
00:53:45,600 --> 00:53:49,600
Speaker 4: pass heavy offense, Travis Kelce extremely pass heavy offense, Fonte Parker,

1142
00:53:49,640 --> 00:53:52,239
Speaker 4: they were forced to throw keenan Allen. The Chargers were

1143
00:53:52,280 --> 00:53:54,480
Speaker 4: pass heavy until the final month when they switched coordinators

1144
00:53:54,560 --> 00:53:57,640
Speaker 4: Kenny Galladay again behind it, and they've lost with their

1145
00:53:57,719 --> 00:54:00,520
Speaker 4: last nine games, they were throwing a ton pass first offense.

1146
00:54:00,840 --> 00:54:04,439
Speaker 4: Even Amari Cooper. I mean, Dallas was a mid range

1147
00:54:04,440 --> 00:54:06,480
Speaker 4: They weren't run heavy last season. They were a mid

1148
00:54:06,600 --> 00:54:09,520
Speaker 4: range team with Kellen Moore calling the play. So that's

1149
00:54:09,760 --> 00:54:12,440
Speaker 4: something I don't expect from Tennessee. You know, unless if

1150
00:54:12,440 --> 00:54:14,480
Speaker 4: the wheels fall off, they're going to be a run first,

1151
00:54:14,480 --> 00:54:17,520
Speaker 4: low volume passing game sort of offense. It's another I

1152
00:54:17,560 --> 00:54:20,440
Speaker 4: think red flag. So maybe that's an argument on the

1153
00:54:20,560 --> 00:54:23,640
Speaker 4: under on aj Brown for certain categories. But again at

1154
00:54:23,640 --> 00:54:26,160
Speaker 4: fifty to one, if the guy proves to be a

1155
00:54:26,160 --> 00:54:29,120
Speaker 4: superstar in the NFL, it's possibly it's a huge target

1156
00:54:29,160 --> 00:54:32,480
Speaker 4: chair and goes off this year. So it's a long

1157
00:54:32,480 --> 00:54:34,640
Speaker 4: way of saying I'm okay with it, but maybe more

1158
00:54:34,640 --> 00:54:35,640
Speaker 4: pessimistic than Sean.

1159
00:54:36,680 --> 00:54:39,759
Speaker 3: All Right, Raybon, give us your final prop here for

1160
00:54:39,880 --> 00:54:40,799
Speaker 3: the twenty twenty season.

1161
00:54:41,680 --> 00:54:45,360
Speaker 2: I'm looking at the rushing yard leaders and I really like,

1162
00:54:46,239 --> 00:54:48,359
Speaker 2: you know, I would never again, I would never bet

1163
00:54:48,400 --> 00:54:51,319
Speaker 2: on any running back to do any like to go

1164
00:54:51,400 --> 00:54:54,960
Speaker 2: over any you know, fifty to fifty prop. But you

1165
00:54:55,040 --> 00:54:57,280
Speaker 2: know we talked about on the on the Serious Show,

1166
00:54:57,680 --> 00:55:00,400
Speaker 2: how there there's a lot of value I think in

1167
00:55:00,440 --> 00:55:04,000
Speaker 2: the in these running back props. And I really like

1168
00:55:04,080 --> 00:55:06,359
Speaker 2: Kenyan Drake at twenty to one to lead the league

1169
00:55:06,360 --> 00:55:10,279
Speaker 2: in rushing yards because it's one where there are there

1170
00:55:10,280 --> 00:55:11,840
Speaker 2: are kind of a few backs in the league that

1171
00:55:12,480 --> 00:55:16,359
Speaker 2: are gonna get a workload that can even allow them

1172
00:55:16,400 --> 00:55:18,360
Speaker 2: to lead the league rushing yards. And you look at

1173
00:55:18,400 --> 00:55:21,399
Speaker 2: Kenyan Drake and what he did over the last couple

1174
00:55:21,440 --> 00:55:23,359
Speaker 2: of games, and more importantly, how he was used, and

1175
00:55:23,680 --> 00:55:28,160
Speaker 2: he really got almost every carry for that backfield down

1176
00:55:28,200 --> 00:55:29,680
Speaker 2: you know, in the in two of the last three

1177
00:55:29,719 --> 00:55:32,279
Speaker 2: games he had you know, twenty four, he had a

1178
00:55:32,360 --> 00:55:36,680
Speaker 2: twenty two and DJ and Edmunds were both active. So

1179
00:55:37,160 --> 00:55:40,560
Speaker 2: in those games explosive runs and you know, that's another

1180
00:55:40,600 --> 00:55:42,040
Speaker 2: thing I think you need. You can't just be a

1181
00:55:42,080 --> 00:55:44,160
Speaker 2: guy that's gonna kind of get, you know, four yards

1182
00:55:44,160 --> 00:55:46,400
Speaker 2: every time. So I think that Kenyan Drake is like

1183
00:55:46,440 --> 00:55:49,560
Speaker 2: on the short list of guys that that I would

1184
00:55:49,600 --> 00:55:50,600
Speaker 2: have to lead the league in Russian.

1185
00:55:50,680 --> 00:55:52,600
Speaker 4: So I'm going with Drake at twenty one.

1186
00:55:53,360 --> 00:55:53,759
Speaker 2: All right.

1187
00:55:53,840 --> 00:55:57,640
Speaker 3: So the the final prop that I'm going to highlight

1188
00:55:57,680 --> 00:56:02,000
Speaker 3: here not a surprise tease that earlier cam Newton smashing

1189
00:56:02,080 --> 00:56:05,240
Speaker 3: the over on the passing yardage and then also over

1190
00:56:05,560 --> 00:56:09,680
Speaker 3: on the touchdowns. Sean touched about the Sean talked about

1191
00:56:09,719 --> 00:56:13,200
Speaker 3: the yardage total earlier. There's also the prop from nineteen

1192
00:56:13,239 --> 00:56:17,400
Speaker 3: and a half touchdowns passing, which again I think is

1193
00:56:17,440 --> 00:56:20,200
Speaker 3: coming with some sort of injury penalty or the baked

1194
00:56:20,280 --> 00:56:23,920
Speaker 3: in assumption that Newton is going to play only twelve

1195
00:56:23,960 --> 00:56:29,920
Speaker 3: games or thereabouts and the over for twenty nine hundred

1196
00:56:29,960 --> 00:56:32,960
Speaker 3: and fifty yards passing I think also has that same assumption.

1197
00:56:33,719 --> 00:56:36,279
Speaker 3: I'm looking at Newton assuming that he's going to start

1198
00:56:36,280 --> 00:56:38,879
Speaker 3: in week one. I think if he starts in week one,

1199
00:56:38,960 --> 00:56:41,759
Speaker 3: he plays well enough to keep the job. I think

1200
00:56:41,800 --> 00:56:45,399
Speaker 3: he will be more or less the Cam Newton as

1201
00:56:45,440 --> 00:56:49,320
Speaker 3: a passer that we've seen previously, and so I think

1202
00:56:49,440 --> 00:56:53,200
Speaker 3: that puts him well above the numbers that we see here.

1203
00:56:53,280 --> 00:56:58,879
Speaker 3: I would project something closer to, honestly, like thirty eight

1204
00:56:59,040 --> 00:57:02,040
Speaker 3: hundred yards as opposed to the twenty nine hundred yards

1205
00:57:02,280 --> 00:57:04,400
Speaker 3: that we see here, and I would put him closer

1206
00:57:04,400 --> 00:57:08,279
Speaker 3: to twenty six touchdowns passing versus the nineteen and a

1207
00:57:08,320 --> 00:57:11,399
Speaker 3: half that we see here. Mike, I'd like to get

1208
00:57:11,520 --> 00:57:14,480
Speaker 3: your thoughts on Cam Newton and both, and I should

1209
00:57:14,520 --> 00:57:19,160
Speaker 3: just say I'm investing in in Newton everywhere in fantasy,

1210
00:57:19,480 --> 00:57:22,720
Speaker 3: I'm investing in him, and in this market right here,

1211
00:57:22,960 --> 00:57:26,000
Speaker 3: I'm investing in him. And if he weren't so overpriced

1212
00:57:26,000 --> 00:57:28,480
Speaker 3: for MVP or something like that, you know, like I

1213
00:57:28,560 --> 00:57:31,920
Speaker 3: maybe invest in him there, but in any reasonable market

1214
00:57:32,440 --> 00:57:34,960
Speaker 3: I'm looking to invest Mike, what do you think about

1215
00:57:35,120 --> 00:57:35,960
Speaker 3: these props here?

1216
00:57:36,280 --> 00:57:38,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like it. Look, if you think he's going

1217
00:57:38,800 --> 00:57:41,360
Speaker 4: to Star Week one, then you're in on this. I mean,

1218
00:57:41,400 --> 00:57:43,560
Speaker 4: it's I think it's pretty straightforward, right, I mean, look,

1219
00:57:43,600 --> 00:57:45,480
Speaker 4: look at his first eight seasons in the NFL. He

1220
00:57:45,480 --> 00:57:48,200
Speaker 4: missed only five games with probably would surprise people that

1221
00:57:48,280 --> 00:57:50,920
Speaker 4: it's only five games, but he was over this passing

1222
00:57:51,000 --> 00:57:54,280
Speaker 4: yardist total in all of them. All eight seasons he

1223
00:57:54,320 --> 00:57:56,720
Speaker 4: was under. The passing touchdowns make me a little more nervous.

1224
00:57:56,760 --> 00:57:58,560
Speaker 4: He was under in three of those. And obviously he

1225
00:57:59,360 --> 00:58:01,280
Speaker 4: will add a lot of value with with his legs,

1226
00:58:01,280 --> 00:58:03,160
Speaker 4: we'll run some touchdowns in So I'm not as confident

1227
00:58:03,200 --> 00:58:05,840
Speaker 4: in the nineteen and a half. But the passing yard

1228
00:58:05,920 --> 00:58:08,560
Speaker 4: is total. Absolutely all reports indicate he's going to be

1229
00:58:08,600 --> 00:58:11,120
Speaker 4: the guy. He's going to be the starter. So it's

1230
00:58:11,160 --> 00:58:13,280
Speaker 4: just too low. I mean, it's it's not factoring in

1231
00:58:13,520 --> 00:58:16,320
Speaker 4: the likelihood that he's going to play thirteen, fourteen, fifteen

1232
00:58:16,320 --> 00:58:19,040
Speaker 4: plus games this season, like pretty much all props are

1233
00:58:19,080 --> 00:58:22,440
Speaker 4: for other quarterbacks. So absolutely love the over on the

1234
00:58:22,440 --> 00:58:23,400
Speaker 4: passing yards.

1235
00:58:23,560 --> 00:58:27,240
Speaker 3: All right, this was this was great stuff, especially because

1236
00:58:27,360 --> 00:58:30,320
Speaker 3: Mike you you agreed with me on a number of

1237
00:58:30,360 --> 00:58:33,000
Speaker 3: mine and then also you know, we had to listen

1238
00:58:33,040 --> 00:58:35,480
Speaker 3: to uh or we got to listen to to raybond

1239
00:58:35,880 --> 00:58:39,680
Speaker 3: admit that this Cam Newton prop on the over was

1240
00:58:39,720 --> 00:58:42,120
Speaker 3: one that you should you should probably take a little

1241
00:58:42,200 --> 00:58:44,440
Speaker 3: nibble on and anytime.

1242
00:58:44,120 --> 00:58:46,760
Speaker 2: Raybondar I didn't go that. No, I think it's just

1243
00:58:46,760 --> 00:58:49,360
Speaker 2: a range outcome. I mean, it's not wrong.

1244
00:58:49,720 --> 00:58:52,040
Speaker 6: My favorite part was when I made up that Dan app.

1245
00:58:52,320 --> 00:58:54,919
Speaker 6: Raybaud's reaction was like, wait, where can I find this?

1246
00:58:55,680 --> 00:58:58,400
Speaker 3: It was your joy, it really was.

1247
00:58:58,520 --> 00:58:58,880
Speaker 4: I'm over.

1248
00:58:58,920 --> 00:59:00,920
Speaker 2: I'm over that that fake buying, made up whatever.

1249
00:59:01,200 --> 00:59:04,240
Speaker 6: T We'll sell it offline, but I think we could

1250
00:59:04,320 --> 00:59:05,840
Speaker 6: come out arrive at something.

1251
00:59:06,160 --> 00:59:09,240
Speaker 3: All right, Mike, what content of yours should people be

1252
00:59:09,320 --> 00:59:11,360
Speaker 3: sure to check out at ESPN.

1253
00:59:11,400 --> 00:59:14,120
Speaker 4: Sign up for ESPN Plus obviously that's where a lot

1254
00:59:14,120 --> 00:59:16,560
Speaker 4: of my content is. So I'll be pumping in content

1255
00:59:16,600 --> 00:59:19,520
Speaker 4: throughout the season and have an NFL preview coming up

1256
00:59:19,680 --> 00:59:22,480
Speaker 4: of our overall staff NFL preview, and just wrote a

1257
00:59:22,480 --> 00:59:24,360
Speaker 4: ton of fantasy content over the past couple of months.

1258
00:59:24,400 --> 00:59:28,720
Speaker 4: So ESPN Fantasy ESPN Plus at Mike Clay NFL on Twitter.

1259
00:59:28,840 --> 00:59:31,560
Speaker 4: You know, I'm excited, guys. We're just well, we got

1260
00:59:31,600 --> 00:59:33,440
Speaker 4: two weeks left here, less than two weeks till the

1261
00:59:33,520 --> 00:59:35,280
Speaker 4: season opener, so it's gonna be fun.

1262
00:59:35,400 --> 00:59:38,040
Speaker 3: All right, Mike, fantastic stuff. Thanks for being on the show,

1263
00:59:38,120 --> 00:59:40,320
Speaker 3: and as Mike said, you can follow him on Twitter

1264
00:59:40,440 --> 00:59:42,400
Speaker 3: at Mike Clay NFL.

1265
00:59:42,640 --> 00:59:42,960
Speaker 4: All right.

1266
00:59:43,000 --> 00:59:45,120
Speaker 3: In our next NFL episode, we are going to take

1267
00:59:45,120 --> 00:59:48,120
Speaker 3: one final look at our fantasy football rankings for twenty twenty,

1268
00:59:48,200 --> 00:59:50,960
Speaker 3: keeping high out for that. You can follow Sean, Chris

1269
00:59:50,960 --> 00:59:53,280
Speaker 3: and Me in the Action Network Gap at the Underscore

1270
00:59:53,280 --> 00:59:56,000
Speaker 3: odds Maker Chris Raymond and Matt f the Oracle. Please

1271
00:59:56,000 --> 00:59:57,960
Speaker 3: subscribe to and rate your review of the show and

1272
00:59:58,000 --> 01:00:13,720
Speaker 3: listen and download on Spotify. See you again next episode.

1273
01:00:18,120 --> 01:00:19,200
Speaker 6: We're finished talking