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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Friday morning edition of the Daily News podcast.

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Speaker 1: My name is Matt Perolt. We are here off of

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Speaker 1: Bettingpros dot com and we're always being brought to you

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Speaker 1: by bet MGM. All right, you can follow me on

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Speaker 1: Twitter at sports Talk Matts and we had a ton

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Speaker 1: of fun last night on the Discord channel watching Seattle

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Speaker 1: cover in that three point line.

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Speaker 2: It was a sweat. It was wild.

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Speaker 1: Hopefully we keep the ball going in the right direction

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Speaker 1: tonight here on a Friday, I have got two plays

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Speaker 1: for you. I've got two college games that I'm going

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Speaker 1: to bet. I'm gonna tell you about two college games

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Speaker 1: on Saturday that I'm watching closely.

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Speaker 2: Here.

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Speaker 1: But the headline of this podcast a longer than normal

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Speaker 1: version of this podcast. It is with a professional gambler

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Speaker 1: who has been making his living from gambling on sports

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Speaker 1: for the better part of a decade. His name, well,

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Speaker 1: we don't know his name, but he goes by Captain

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Speaker 1: Jack Andrews at cap Jack two thousand on Twitter. You

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Speaker 1: may have seen his videos. I've been pushing you guys

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Speaker 1: in the Discord channel to go and watch his videos

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Speaker 1: because he is incredible at breaking down things for the

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Speaker 1: novice the beginner, somebody coming into the space, and this

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Speaker 1: guy is giving his time up to make us better gamblers.

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Speaker 1: So whenever we have a chance to talk to someone

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Speaker 1: like that, I'm gonna jump at it. It was an

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Speaker 1: awesome conversation to This podcast is a bit longer than normal.

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Speaker 1: Normally it's fifteen minutes. This is gonna run you about

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Speaker 1: forty minutes. So it's a day that I don't love.

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Speaker 1: So I thought when I looked ahead to the line,

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Speaker 1: I was like, Okay, when would it make sense to

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Speaker 1: talk to Deck to Captain Jack, Because well, Saturday's big,

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Speaker 1: Sunday's big.

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Speaker 2: Don't love Friday.

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Speaker 1: There's four games tonight, but I don't love any of them,

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Speaker 1: so I knew I was gonna tiptoe in. So I

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Speaker 1: thought it was a good day to kind of give

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Speaker 1: you guys a chance to maybe hear a longer version

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Speaker 1: of this podcast as we head towards the weekend. But

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Speaker 1: just a recap quickly. Last night, we get the minus

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Speaker 1: three right with Seattle a full unit there. That was nice,

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Speaker 1: zero point two to five units on Russell Wilson under

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Speaker 1: passing yardage easily under that three fifteen and a half.

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Speaker 2: That was good.

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Speaker 1: Everyone hit got it late at like three oh seven.

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Speaker 1: You hit as well, so that was nice. That was

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Speaker 1: the number two prop on the betting pros prop bet

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Speaker 1: cheat sheets, so that was nice. We did not get, unfortunately,

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Speaker 1: the Kenyan Drake rushing total. He wound up with twenty

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Speaker 1: nine yards rushing. We bet over forty seven and a half.

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Speaker 1: Nothing really going on the ground at all for Arizona,

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Speaker 1: including Kyler Murray, who did not score a touchdown for

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Speaker 1: the first time in a couple of weeks.

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Speaker 2: So that bet.

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Speaker 1: I'd been watching it, been talking about it, I had

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Speaker 1: been playing it. I didn't play it last night, but

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Speaker 1: it was juiced up to minus two to twenty five

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Speaker 1: at bet MGM. In the offshore market it got as

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Speaker 1: high as minus two seventy five. Just everyone's betting it

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Speaker 1: and betting it and betting it. It's a big win

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Speaker 1: for the books last night with that Kyler Murray anytime

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Speaker 1: touchdown prop which did not.

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Speaker 2: Go their way yesterday. So good stuff on that.

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Speaker 1: Before I give you the plays, we always tell you

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Speaker 1: about BETEMGM, they've got this offer for NFL games coming

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Speaker 1: up on Sunday. You bet one dollar on the money

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Speaker 1: line on either team in a game where a touchdown

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Speaker 1: gets scored. Pick a game money line one dollar.

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Speaker 2: If a TD gets scored, you.

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Speaker 1: Will win one hundred dollars in free wagers from BETMGM

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Speaker 1: by using the promo code Juice one hundred when you

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Speaker 1: sign up for a new account with bet MGM Juice

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Speaker 1: one hundred. Promo code Juice one hundred with a new

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Speaker 1: account with bet MGM one dollar money line pays out

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Speaker 1: in one hundred dollars in free wagers. Something we talk about,

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Speaker 1: by the way, with Captain Jeck and what to do

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Speaker 1: with that one hundred dollars in free bets you'll get

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Speaker 1: from BETMGM. Go to betemgm dot com for terms and conditions.

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Speaker 1: You must be twenty one years or older, and you

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Speaker 1: must be physically located in Tennessee, Colorado, Indian, New Jersey,

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Speaker 1: or West Virginia. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem called one

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Speaker 1: hundred five two two forty seven hundred in Colorado, one

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Speaker 1: hundred gambler in New Jerse, in West Virginia, or one

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Speaker 1: hundred and nine with it in Indiana. All right, So

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Speaker 1: here are the two plays, half a unit each, just

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Speaker 1: one unit in in play here. Okay, let's start with

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Speaker 1: Purdue in a Big Ten matchup against Minnesota. This is

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Speaker 1: going to be a high scoring game. If you look

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Speaker 1: at Purdue in Minnesota so far, you might go, Matt, WHOA,

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Speaker 1: what are you doing here? This is kind of weird? Right,

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Speaker 1: So in Minnesota's games, the first game at home went over,

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Speaker 1: they scored twenty four points, they give up forty nine,

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Speaker 1: went on the road to Maryland and they got their doors. Well,

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Speaker 1: they put that that was a hard fought game. Actually

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Speaker 1: think it's Maryland. And they lost it forty five to

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Speaker 1: forty four. So the overhit by twenty and a half points.

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Speaker 1: The week prior by twenty points, but the last two

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Speaker 1: weeks they've scored a combined twenty one points. All Right,

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Speaker 1: I don't believe that this goal for offense is that bad.

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Speaker 1: Their defense might be that bad, but their offense is

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Speaker 1: not that bad. They're gonna score to night against Purdue,

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Speaker 1: who does not have a great defense. Purduce games, however,

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Speaker 1: every single game this year has gone on under barely.

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Speaker 1: But it's gone under against Iowa, it went under by eight,

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Speaker 1: Against Illinois, went under by a half a point, and

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Speaker 1: by Northwestern. Against Northwestern last time out, it went under

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Speaker 1: by one and a half points. So the books have

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Speaker 1: been pretty good here when it comes to sitting in

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Speaker 1: line for Purdue. But they don't play defense either. Their

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Speaker 1: offense is pretty good. We know they can run, we

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Speaker 1: know they can throw. I got a total of sixty

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Speaker 1: and a half here. I'm betting the over for Purdue

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Speaker 1: and a Minnesota team that I can't trust them to

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Speaker 1: cover anything Like I just this number.

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Speaker 2: You can't.

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Speaker 1: You can't go into it and say I'm gonna lay

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Speaker 1: three with Purdue or take through with Minnesota. They both

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Speaker 1: aren't good enough. Okay, but this is much like the MAC. Okay,

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Speaker 1: it's a Friday night game. It's a funky game. We've

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Speaker 1: seen points, points, points. I know it's the Big Ten

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Speaker 1: and it's not the MAC. I just think that points

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Speaker 1: happen on Friday nights.

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Speaker 2: I just do.

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Speaker 1: I think points happen here. So we're gonna go over

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Speaker 1: sixty and a half. If you're a trend person, the

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Speaker 1: over is seven to one the last time these two teams,

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Speaker 1: I've last eight times these two teams have played, So there's.

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Speaker 2: A little bit riding on that.

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Speaker 1: If you want to roll with that, you can say,

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Speaker 1: all right, they roll with that, So over sixty and

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Speaker 1: a half half a unit per due in Minnesota and

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Speaker 1: the other half a unit we are taking and putting

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Speaker 1: it on the Syracuse in Louisville game two really bad teams. Again,

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Speaker 1: they don't play defense. Syracuse doesn't play defense. This is

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Speaker 1: just kind of like hold your nose football. But I

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Speaker 1: think it's gonna be somewhat entertaining. I think we're gonna

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Speaker 1: see a lot of points getting scored, and I think

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Speaker 1: Syracuse is going to bounce back offensively because they need to.

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Speaker 1: Now to the under. Louisville's five and three to the over.

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Speaker 1: Syracuse is four and four, so they're flat. Last time out,

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Speaker 1: the under hit, but they're two pre sorry the last

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Speaker 1: time out. The two last two games for Syracuse, the

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Speaker 1: under has hit. They've scored fourteen points and thirteen points

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Speaker 1: the last two times out. But before that they gave

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Speaker 1: up forty seven to Clemson, thirty eight to Liberty, thirty

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Speaker 1: eight to Duke. I think they're gonna give up forty

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Speaker 1: points here to Louisville. Louisville can score, right, Louisville has

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Speaker 1: an offense. They can score. They scored thirty five against

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Speaker 1: bot Tech, forty eight against Florida, States. Yeah, Notre Dame.

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Speaker 1: They only scored well seven points. But but the weekend,

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Speaker 1: the week before, they scored forty six points against bad defenses.

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Speaker 2: Louisville can score.

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Speaker 1: I know louisvill just lost one of their best players,

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Speaker 1: when of the best receivers got hurt. But I just

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Speaker 1: think both teams are gonna score here. Fifty six and

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Speaker 1: a half seems like a low total, and it's mostly

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Speaker 1: because of syracuse Is offense. But I do think Syracuse

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Speaker 1: is gonna put some points up on the board. Maybe

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Speaker 1: not a ton, but enough. If they score, they score

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Speaker 1: seventeen points. I feel good as long as Syracuse gets

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Speaker 1: to set, gets, you know, somewhere around seventeen points, and

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Speaker 1: then we'll get forty out of Louisville forty seventeen to final,

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Speaker 1: somewhere in that range. You might say, Matt, just bet

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Speaker 1: the nineteen points. It's a lot of points. I don't

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Speaker 1: want to bet nineteen points. I think Syracuse might keep

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Speaker 1: it close, so I'm concerned about that, but I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: bet the over fifty six and a half. We're going

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Speaker 1: over Syracuse in Louisville here for the plays. So there

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Speaker 1: are two games that I'm watching for tomorrow that I'm

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Speaker 1: not gonna bet right now. Why covid. I'm just not

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Speaker 1: comfortable betting these games yet. But there are two numbers

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Speaker 1: I am watching. Iowa at Penn State minus two and

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Speaker 1: a half is my favorite bet the weekend. Okay, that game.

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Speaker 1: I haven't bet it yet, but I'm gonna bet it tomorrow.

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Speaker 1: I'll explain the reasoning on the podcast tomorrow. But if

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Speaker 1: that number comes down, if it goes to two or one,

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Speaker 1: there's going to be Penn State money that's gonna come back.

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Speaker 1: This opened up with Penn State as a favorite, right

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Speaker 1: the Iowa money poured in. Flip the line. There's gonna

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Speaker 1: be Penn State buy back. Okay, Penn State has never

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Speaker 1: opened up oh to five in their career. They're gonna

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Speaker 1: open up oh to five this year. First time. Iowa

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Speaker 1: is gonna go in there and blow their doors off.

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Speaker 1: But there's gonna be Penn State money that comes back.

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Speaker 1: Buy that number down. It's gonna be zero, hopefully a

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Speaker 1: pick by the time we see this game go off.

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Speaker 1: I think we're gonna get a pick at Iowa to

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Speaker 1: win at Penn State. So we're waiting there on that number.

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Speaker 1: But I don't think it goes high than three. So

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Speaker 1: three is the worst number we're gonna lay. But I

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Speaker 1: don't be able to go over three, and so Iowa

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Speaker 1: we're watching that number. And then Cincinnati on the road

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Speaker 1: as a favorite against Central Florida. It's five and a

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Speaker 1: half right now. I want six, but I want to

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Speaker 1: see about COVID and who's playing and who's not. I

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Speaker 1: gotta wait to see. I'm not betting that game. I'm

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Speaker 1: not betting any college game forty eight hours out.

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Speaker 2: No way we're.

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Speaker 1: Gonna have twenty games canceled in college football on Saturday.

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Speaker 1: I'm not betting a game before you know, twenty four

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Speaker 1: hours out for the podcast, But look out for the upset.

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Speaker 1: Cincinnati can put points on the board. They can stop

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Speaker 1: a lot of people. But I am a Dylan Gabriel

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Speaker 1: stan and I like that offense.

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Speaker 2: I think they.

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Speaker 1: Can keep the game close and maybe they can derail

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Speaker 1: the entire party here for Cincinnati. I like Central Florida

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Speaker 1: here catching six points. If I can get six, it's

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Speaker 1: five and a half right now. I probably will lay

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Speaker 1: the five and a half, but I want more. So

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Speaker 1: we're watching those two games for tomorrow. I'm not telling

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Speaker 1: you to bet it right now. But I'm just telling

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Speaker 1: you ahead of time that's what we're looking for. Because

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Speaker 1: I'm only giving you two plays here for tonight. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna go ahead and look ahead for tomorrow for college football.

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Speaker 1: So the plays tonight once again, Purdue over sixteen and

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Speaker 1: a half against Minnesota in Syracuse, Louisville over fifty six

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Speaker 1: and a half against Syracuse, and Louisville fifty six and

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Speaker 1: a half over so one unit in play half a unit.

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Speaker 1: I'm both those games coming up here tonight.

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Speaker 2: All right, this is.

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Speaker 1: A great conversation. I had the pleasure of talking to

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Speaker 1: Captain Jack Andrews, pro GAULF, pro sports gambler, a guy

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Speaker 1: who knows a ton about the industry. I hope you

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Speaker 1: guys enjoy the conversation. If this works and you like it,

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Speaker 1: we'll do more of this. We'll get experts on to

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Speaker 1: come on and help you guys become better sports gamblers.

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Speaker 1: My talk with Captain Jack Andrews. All right, joining us

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Speaker 1: now here on the Deli Jucee podcast is somebody that

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Speaker 1: I've been wanting to talk to for a while now,

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Speaker 1: and so I do some behind the scenes work for

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Speaker 1: a podcast called bet the Process, and it was first

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Speaker 1: exposed to Captain Jack Andrews through Ruvers Pabody and Jeff

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Speaker 1: ma on their Great podcast and said, you know what,

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Speaker 1: I got to talk to this guy, but I was

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Speaker 1: looking for an angle to bring him on, and then

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Speaker 1: he started this incredible video series on well how to

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Speaker 1: become a successful or a better sports gambler in Captain

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Speaker 1: Jacksman joined us kind of joice heero on Deeley Juice.

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Speaker 1: Captain Matt Parol, how are you him, Matt.

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Speaker 3: That's a pleasure to be here with you. Thank you.

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Speaker 2: Okay.

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Speaker 1: So for people who don't know your background, obviously, Captain

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Speaker 1: Jack Andrews is not.

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Speaker 3: Your real name, right, that's correct?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, so what's the background? Without giving away your identity?

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Speaker 1: But how long you been doing this? You know, when

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Speaker 1: did you first get involved in sports gambling heavily?

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Speaker 3: I have been an advantage player, which is sort of

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Speaker 3: the term people use for a professional gambler that gambles

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Speaker 3: with an edge. I have been an advantage player for

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Speaker 3: the large part of twenty years now. For the past

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Speaker 3: ten years or so, it's been my sole source of income.

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Speaker 3: It's my primary source of income, I should say and

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Speaker 3: I've mainly dabbled in casino play card counting, various promotions,

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Speaker 3: some poker, some video poker, things like that, anywhere I

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Speaker 3: could get an edge in a casino. And as such,

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Speaker 3: when you're doing that, you kind of want to keep

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Speaker 3: your identity a secret because the casinos are always looking

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Speaker 3: out to try to make sure that you can't get

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Speaker 3: an edge with them. And so that's why I've always

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Speaker 3: had this persona of Captain Jack. That was the name

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Speaker 3: I chose on various online forums. And fast forward now

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Speaker 3: to as I've been betting sports, and I started betting

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Speaker 3: sports back in the mid two thousands, around two thousand

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Speaker 3: and fours when I really got into it, and sports

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Speaker 3: betting has become more and more of my daily grind.

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Speaker 3: And I live in New Jersey, and New Jersey legalized,

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Speaker 3: as you know, legalized sports betting in twenty eighteen, and

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Speaker 3: it's exploded here. It is absolutely exploded. And so I've

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Speaker 3: seen a lot of how people are approaching these online

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Speaker 3: sports books in the state or as well as the

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Speaker 3: brick and mortar sports books, and I kind of got

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Speaker 3: the impression that, you know, they needed a little bit

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Speaker 3: of a guiding hand. Everyone's kind of new to this

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Speaker 3: sports betting thing, and I figured, you know, well, when

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Speaker 3: people want to learn something, they tend to go onto YouTube.

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Speaker 3: And I noticed that when I went onto YouTube and

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Speaker 3: searched for sports betting, the content was somewhat abysmal. It

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Speaker 3: was a lot of stale content. It was people making

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Speaker 3: a pick for a game that happened in twenty fourteen,

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Speaker 3: or it was just kind of slimy content where they're

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Speaker 3: trying to make you buy their picks and they're trying

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Speaker 3: to sell you on a system or something like that.

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Speaker 3: Nobody was giving out quality content, and I said, well,

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Speaker 3: you know what, I can do that, and then I

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Speaker 3: kind of sat on it for a while. But then

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Speaker 3: the pandemic happened and I had a lot of time

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Speaker 3: to myself with no sports going on, and I said,

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Speaker 3: you know what, let me try this YouTube thing. What's

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Speaker 3: the worst that can happen? So I decided to make

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Speaker 3: up some videos. I decided to do some live web

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Speaker 3: streams and kind of answer questions and put together a

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Speaker 3: PowerPoint presentation and it's taken off from there. And as

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Speaker 3: a result, yeah, I have my face out there on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: I don't have my name out there, and I don't

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Speaker 3: intend to, but since I'm spending less and less time

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Speaker 3: in casinos, I kind of feel like I can put

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Speaker 3: my face out there for a change. And that's how

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Speaker 3: that all kind of came about.

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Speaker 1: It's really cool, and so a couple of your videos

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Speaker 1: really jumped out to me. And the first I want

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Speaker 1: to kind of talk a little bit about to kind

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Speaker 1: of help the audience because they're all being a lot

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Speaker 1: of them are in the new emerging markets. So we

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Speaker 1: got people in Colorado and Iowa and Indiana and New Hampshire,

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Speaker 1: and they're all being presented with this very unique opportunity

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Speaker 1: to get free money, free wagers, your free bets. How

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Speaker 1: has that video because I've watched it like three times,

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Speaker 1: trying to learn, trying to get because I think you

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Speaker 1: break it down such a cool way as to how

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Speaker 1: you maximize the value for that.

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Speaker 2: But how has the response been to that?

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Speaker 1: Because I feel like new players are getting presented with

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Speaker 1: the you know, bet one dollar win one hundred dollars

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Speaker 1: offer every day.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the amount of free money being thrown at betters

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Speaker 3: in some of these emerging markets is phenomenal. I mean,

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Speaker 3: anyone who's who's cut their teeth betting sports in Nevada

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Speaker 3: and now goes to one of these other markets like

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Speaker 3: Colorado or New Jersey or Pennsylvania where it's highly competitive.

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Speaker 3: They're finding that these sports book companies are willing to

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Speaker 3: basically pay them to bet sports. You know, we've seen

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Speaker 3: in the financials of a lot of these companies that

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Speaker 3: they're willing to spend about three hundred dollars to acquire

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Speaker 3: a new customer. So you know, when you see an

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Speaker 3: offer where they're giving you a five hundred dollars free bet,

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Speaker 3: that's not that unheard of because in their mind, well,

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Speaker 3: people aren't going to play them optimally anyway. So most

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Speaker 3: people if they're given a five hundred dollars free bet,

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Speaker 3: where they're going to make that wager and no matter

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Speaker 3: what happens, they don't get that wager back, but they

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Speaker 3: get the winnings of it, well, they're going to look

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Speaker 3: to play a sure thing, right, that's just kind of

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Speaker 3: your kind of your your common approach to it. Well, optimally,

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Speaker 3: you want to play something that's a longer shot that

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Speaker 3: free money, because if you're betting five hundred dollars into

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Speaker 3: something that has a high odds, let's just say like

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Speaker 3: minus three hundred, Well you're only going to get back

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Speaker 3: a third of that as your potential profit. You know,

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Speaker 3: you want to bet on something that's like plus three hundred,

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Speaker 3: where your potential profit is fifteen hundred dollars, and yes,

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Speaker 3: the odds of you hitting that fifteen hundred decrease greatly,

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Speaker 3: but at the same time, you're maximizing your potential profit.

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Speaker 3: And you know, as you know, Matt, one of the

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Speaker 3: things I made in that video is the idea of

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Speaker 3: flipping the script. So whenever I would tell people about this,

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Speaker 3: they would say, well, no, I'm not going to bet

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Speaker 3: on a long shot. I'm not going to bet on

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Speaker 3: something that's you know, four to one that never comes

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Speaker 3: in and I've pissed away that five hundred dollars. Well,

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Speaker 3: you can flip the script and if you can find

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Speaker 3: a situation where you're betting the other side of the

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Speaker 3: wager elsewhere at another sports book, and in many of

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Speaker 3: these states there's plenty of sports books, plenty of lines,

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Speaker 3: you can find those arbitrage opportunities. Well, if you're able

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Speaker 3: to bet minus four one hundred at one book and

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Speaker 3: then put your free money on the plus four hundred,

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Speaker 3: you can flip it so that you're actually rooting for

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Speaker 3: that favorite, that minus four hundred favorite to win for

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Speaker 3: you to clear your money out and you don't have

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Speaker 3: to kind of feel like you're you're chasing, you know,

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Speaker 3: some kind of crazy underdog. And you know, I called

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Speaker 3: that flipping the script, and there's been a great response

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Speaker 3: to that video.

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Speaker 2: I love it.

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Speaker 1: It's awesome, and it's essentially hedging with yourself. It's I

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Speaker 1: talk a lot with the guys on the podcast of

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Speaker 1: where you know, with future wagers or like what I

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Speaker 1: did with the World Series. You know, I had the

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Speaker 1: Rays to win the American League. I had the Dodgers to.

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Speaker 2: Win the World Series.

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Speaker 1: And basically when the Rays got up, I already had

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Speaker 1: the Dodgers. I went ahead and bet the Rays, and

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Speaker 1: I guaranteed myself. I didn't care who won. I just

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Speaker 1: bet the other side. And I had a plus two

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Speaker 1: hundred and I had an a plus three thirty. So

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Speaker 1: to me, I was in the black no matter what.

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Speaker 1: And that strategy of going ahead and saying, Okay, I've

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Speaker 1: got the free money, why not I go ahead and

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Speaker 1: get into a long shot market and if it hits,

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Speaker 1: then look at what I've cleared into or bet the

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Speaker 1: other side, because I think people think that five hundred

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Speaker 1: dollars is real, and it's not real.

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Speaker 2: It's not.

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Speaker 1: You don't, actually you don't. Actually it's not anything. It's

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Speaker 1: just a promotional offer that they're giving you. So you

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Speaker 1: have to try to maximize it as best as possible

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Speaker 1: and read the fine print. Right, how many times are

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Speaker 1: you going to turn that over before you actually get

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Speaker 1: to real money?

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Speaker 2: Right?

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Speaker 3: M h Yeah. I mean in a lot of these

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Speaker 3: New states, the terms are very advantageous. In general. You

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Speaker 3: just have to if you have a free bet, you

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Speaker 3: just have to wager at once. Now, if you're betting

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Speaker 3: offshore or somewhere like that, they've seen all these tricks before.

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Speaker 3: They're not looking to give away the store just yet.

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Speaker 3: So they often have a lot of extra conditions where

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Speaker 3: you need to wager it over fifteen times and you

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Speaker 3: can't bet it on more than this, and your average

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Speaker 3: bet size has to be that. So you definitely have

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Speaker 3: to read the terms and conditions when dealing with any

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Speaker 3: of these things.

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Speaker 1: When do you talk about future markets for you, I

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Speaker 1: mean how involved you get with future markets? I mean

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Speaker 1: how much you know of your bankroll? Do you like

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Speaker 1: to have tied up in future markets, like a baseball

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Speaker 1: season that's going to be coming up, or an NBA

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Speaker 1: season that's going to be coming up. I mean, if

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Speaker 1: you find angles and you find plays that are going

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Speaker 1: to be profitable and you have an edge on, do

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Speaker 1: you have any issue with having your money tied up

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Speaker 1: for six months?

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Speaker 3: You know, Matt, I don't bet a lot into futures

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Speaker 3: markets for a couple different reasons. The first is that

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Speaker 3: it does tie your money up, especially if you're playing

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Speaker 3: in a place where you have to post up the money.

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Speaker 3: You're kind of tying that money up for several months.

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Speaker 3: But the second reason is is the house edge in

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Speaker 3: futures markets is usually greatly inflated. Generally because of the uncertainty.

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Speaker 3: A sports book can't deal it with less of a margin.

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Speaker 3: They have to kind of inflate the margins to protect

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Speaker 3: against you know, some random occurrence happening, like you know,

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Speaker 3: the Browns winning the Super Bowl. But as a result,

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Speaker 3: they tend to put about twenty to twenty five percent

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Speaker 3: Viig baked into that market. In other words, if you

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Speaker 3: were to bet every team in the future's chart there,

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Speaker 3: you would have to pay Ndred twenty five dollars to

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Speaker 3: win one hundred, even though you're guaranteed to win across

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Speaker 3: the board. You know, if you're bet perform, sorry if

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Speaker 3: you were to bet proportionally across all of those. But

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Speaker 3: in general, there are value to be found in futures markets.

435
00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:18,280
Speaker 3: You just have to know where to look. You know,

436
00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:21,480
Speaker 3: for instance, season win totals you're betting over, you're betting under.

437
00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:24,840
Speaker 3: That's a much thinner market. It's basically going to be

438
00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:27,160
Speaker 3: minus one ten or minus one fifteen on either side

439
00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:29,320
Speaker 3: of that. You can find value if you want to

440
00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:32,760
Speaker 3: research how a team's going to perform, I would recommend

441
00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:35,440
Speaker 3: finding those head to head situations rather than kind of

442
00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:38,880
Speaker 3: the long shots. Here's the thing, every better out there

443
00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:41,600
Speaker 3: wants to hit a long shot. You know, there's nothing

444
00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:44,159
Speaker 3: sweeter than at the end of the year when you

445
00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:47,920
Speaker 3: know somebody wins the super Bowl and you go, well,

446
00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:49,879
Speaker 3: look what I got here? How do you like them outs?

447
00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:52,560
Speaker 3: I got the winner? I bet this back in August.

448
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:56,040
Speaker 3: You know, I am nostradamus, I'm the king of the world.

449
00:20:56,520 --> 00:20:59,119
Speaker 3: There's no better feeling than that. So I understand a

450
00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:02,120
Speaker 3: lot of betters love to bet on those long shot futures,

451
00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:05,160
Speaker 3: do your homework, try to find the best line as possible,

452
00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:08,000
Speaker 3: and if you're in one of these emerging markets, definitely

453
00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:11,280
Speaker 3: line shop. That's that's the key, and you know, good

454
00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:11,760
Speaker 3: luck to you.

455
00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:15,160
Speaker 1: One of the things that I had a listener right

456
00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:17,560
Speaker 1: to me a couple of days ago in DM about

457
00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:20,080
Speaker 1: the way that I approach things. And I'm curious as

458
00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:23,160
Speaker 1: to how you feel about the industry, he said, because

459
00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:26,600
Speaker 1: I'm a conservative wager. I don't you know, I'm not

460
00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:29,240
Speaker 1: out here betting too grand a game and I'm not

461
00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:31,720
Speaker 1: pounding my chest when I get something right. I am

462
00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:37,919
Speaker 1: vehtently against selling picks. I am staunchly against parlaying. I

463
00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:39,840
Speaker 1: have some of these principles that I'm trying to tell

464
00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:42,000
Speaker 1: people that look, it's about slow and steady. It's about

465
00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:44,600
Speaker 1: money management, it's about bank roll management. It's you know,

466
00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:46,560
Speaker 1: if you're a ten buck better, don't feel like you're

467
00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:49,640
Speaker 1: a loser. It's absolutely perfectly fine to be that type

468
00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:50,160
Speaker 1: of wager.

469
00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:51,480
Speaker 2: And he brought up the.

470
00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:56,280
Speaker 1: Machismo, the you know, the overinflated male ego that's in

471
00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:58,879
Speaker 1: this sports gambling market. You've been in long enough that

472
00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:01,720
Speaker 1: I'd be curious, is how do you feel about where

473
00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:04,360
Speaker 1: we are right now as an industry in sports gambling.

474
00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:07,359
Speaker 3: Well, Matt, it sounds like you and I have a

475
00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:11,680
Speaker 3: lot in common. I'm fond of saying, there's no this

476
00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:13,679
Speaker 3: is a hard way to make an easy living. You know,

477
00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:16,640
Speaker 3: there's no easy street when it comes to sports gambling.

478
00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:21,639
Speaker 3: You have to be able to find the lowest margin

479
00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:25,120
Speaker 3: possible that you're betting into. You know, there's a lot

480
00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:28,479
Speaker 3: of grind in this. Where we're at in the industry

481
00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:31,640
Speaker 3: right now is a lot of these sports book companies

482
00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:34,240
Speaker 3: know that this is a low margin business. They know

483
00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:36,480
Speaker 3: there's guys like us that are going to try to

484
00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:40,760
Speaker 3: find every little penny of value because hey, it's tough

485
00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:44,080
Speaker 3: to beat anything in sports betting. You know, this market

486
00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:46,960
Speaker 3: is very efficient in time. So as a result, a

487
00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:49,119
Speaker 3: lot of these sports betting companies are looking for ways

488
00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:53,639
Speaker 3: to talk you into things that are a bigger margin

489
00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:57,360
Speaker 3: for them. The big one right now is these crazy parlays.

490
00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:00,240
Speaker 3: You know, if you go on Twitter, every sports book

491
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:05,320
Speaker 3: company nightly tweets you a some ten dollars better that

492
00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:08,159
Speaker 3: hit for ten thousand dollars because he had a crazy

493
00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:10,639
Speaker 3: twelve team parlay, and they get a lot of the

494
00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:14,360
Speaker 3: media to reinforce this, because hey, there's nothing more exciting

495
00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:18,040
Speaker 3: that gets eyes on any social media platform than money.

496
00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:21,959
Speaker 3: And if you can tweet out that, look, ten dollars

497
00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:25,160
Speaker 3: turned into ten thousand dollars. You know this is crazy.

498
00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:27,399
Speaker 3: Everybody looks at it. Hey, I look at it. You

499
00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:30,919
Speaker 3: know it's it's effective. However, basically what they're doing is

500
00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:33,359
Speaker 3: is they're teaching you how to play the lottery. And

501
00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:36,120
Speaker 3: you know it doesn't it doesn't take a rocket scientist

502
00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:38,200
Speaker 3: to know that you don't have an edge in the lottery. Well,

503
00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:40,879
Speaker 3: you don't have an edge in twelve teen parlays. I'm sorry,

504
00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:44,480
Speaker 3: you just don't. There's no situations where every little leg

505
00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:46,560
Speaker 3: of that twelve team parlay has an advantage where you're

506
00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:50,480
Speaker 3: now compounding that advantage. In converse, actually, what happens is

507
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:53,680
Speaker 3: every leg of that twelve team parlay has a disadvantage,

508
00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:57,160
Speaker 3: and you're compounding that disadvantage to the point where, relative

509
00:23:57,200 --> 00:23:59,320
Speaker 3: to the stakes you're betting, you might be betting into

510
00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:02,240
Speaker 3: like a fifty percent house edge, which that's right in

511
00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:05,920
Speaker 3: line with how the lottery operates. So that's that's right.

512
00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:07,879
Speaker 3: Now that you know that that that gets me that

513
00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:10,760
Speaker 3: I think the industry is pushing us towards this, you know,

514
00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:13,880
Speaker 3: spend a buck to win a lot, when in fact,

515
00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:17,680
Speaker 3: this is I think the fun of sports betting is

516
00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:20,200
Speaker 3: in the grind, you know. And yeah, maybe it's it's

517
00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:22,920
Speaker 3: not for everyone, but you know, I like looking at

518
00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:26,520
Speaker 3: the entire NFL card and finding little situations here and

519
00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:28,520
Speaker 3: there that I want to bet into. You know, maybe

520
00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:30,400
Speaker 3: I'm just betting on a tight end. You know, maybe

521
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:33,879
Speaker 3: I'm just betting on the fourth quarter performance of a

522
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:37,280
Speaker 3: certain team. These little niches here and there you can

523
00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:40,560
Speaker 3: find that and you can kind of build a portfolio

524
00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:43,440
Speaker 3: around that, and you know, it makes that Sunday more

525
00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:45,560
Speaker 3: exciting to watch for these little things to be happening.

526
00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:48,320
Speaker 3: And I think that's a that's a better way to

527
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:50,440
Speaker 3: approach sports betting for me personally.

528
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:52,120
Speaker 2: I totally agree with it.

529
00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:58,160
Speaker 1: And it's when you see, you know, when people talk

530
00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:01,000
Speaker 1: about free wagery, free picks, when you to give away picks.

531
00:25:01,320 --> 00:25:03,840
Speaker 1: The thing that gets me so often is that the

532
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:06,920
Speaker 1: people who recommend you know, if they if they work

533
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:09,640
Speaker 1: for a sports book or they have a business relationship

534
00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:12,240
Speaker 1: with a sports book, and then they're recommending parlaying and

535
00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:14,680
Speaker 1: they're giving that away like as they're an expert, and

536
00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:17,919
Speaker 1: then they're giving away here's my three team parlay for

537
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:21,160
Speaker 1: this week. I just don't understand that, Like, it feels

538
00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:26,359
Speaker 1: like counterintuitive. It feels like they're betraying their audience by

539
00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:29,520
Speaker 1: by doing that. Is this just an education standpoint where

540
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:32,000
Speaker 1: we have to get people more educated to what's going

541
00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:32,760
Speaker 1: on with parlays?

542
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:37,760
Speaker 3: I think so. You know, hey, Loo, parlays are attractive,

543
00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:41,240
Speaker 3: right because you know you can kind of take a

544
00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:43,959
Speaker 3: little and turn it into a lot or even beyond that.

545
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:46,159
Speaker 3: You know, it just seems like you kind of connect

546
00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:48,800
Speaker 3: everything together. And you know, on a Sunday afternoon or

547
00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:51,399
Speaker 3: even a Saturday afternoon with college football, all the games

548
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:53,199
Speaker 3: are happening at once, They're all kind of going at

549
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:54,959
Speaker 3: the same time. You know, if you have a parlay,

550
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:57,000
Speaker 3: it's like, you know, I'm just gonna put this this

551
00:25:57,080 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 3: three leg parlay out there, and you know, all these

552
00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:01,679
Speaker 3: three things are happening at the same time, and they

553
00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:03,800
Speaker 3: come together and boom at the end of the three hours,

554
00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:08,159
Speaker 3: you have yourself, you know, hopefully a big profit. But

555
00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:10,119
Speaker 3: it's a little bit fools gold Matt. You know, it

556
00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:14,439
Speaker 3: definitely is people believe that, you know, if they have

557
00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:16,680
Speaker 3: an edge and one, they have an edge in all three,

558
00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:19,840
Speaker 3: and that's usually not the case. And you know what

559
00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:22,600
Speaker 3: reinforces a lot is that you have that Sunday where

560
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:24,800
Speaker 3: you may have picked three winners and you did in parlay,

561
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:27,440
Speaker 3: and you say to yourself, of, if only I would

562
00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:31,720
Speaker 3: have had that three team parlay. Yeah, but that doesn't

563
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:33,919
Speaker 3: change the odds of you winning. You know, coin flip

564
00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:37,760
Speaker 3: flipped three times, there's still a twelve and a half

565
00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:40,040
Speaker 3: percent chance that you're going to be able to guess

566
00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:43,160
Speaker 3: heads or tails correctly all three times. That doesn't mean

567
00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:45,760
Speaker 3: that you're more likely to guess heads or tails correctly

568
00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:49,320
Speaker 3: the next time it's flipped. So you can't let kind

569
00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:52,639
Speaker 3: of past performance kind of dictate how you play going forward.

570
00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:55,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, how do you fight that?

571
00:26:56,520 --> 00:26:59,320
Speaker 1: Recently, bias is a term that I've been trying to

572
00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:01,840
Speaker 1: figure out more more about and trying to how do

573
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:03,760
Speaker 1: you fight that? How do you fight well? I went

574
00:27:03,800 --> 00:27:05,560
Speaker 1: to in one last time doing this, and why don't

575
00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:07,679
Speaker 1: I do it again? How do you get over that

576
00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:10,280
Speaker 1: mental hurdle of well it worked once, why couldn't it

577
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:10,760
Speaker 1: work again?

578
00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:14,280
Speaker 3: You know, Matt, the best way to fight recency bias

579
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:18,040
Speaker 3: is to not look at it. You know, if you

580
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 3: keep good records, you can just go back over a

581
00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:23,720
Speaker 3: larger sample size of your records and kind of see

582
00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:26,639
Speaker 3: what is actually happening. It's the same reason why if

583
00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:29,560
Speaker 3: I go zero and five on a day, I don't

584
00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:31,960
Speaker 3: immediately think that I have no edge here, or that

585
00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:34,600
Speaker 3: I you know, you know that this is the end

586
00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:36,280
Speaker 3: of the world, or that I'm even you know that

587
00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:39,640
Speaker 3: I'm due to win in the future. You have to

588
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:42,119
Speaker 3: just look at everything on a large scale, and then

589
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:44,639
Speaker 3: at the same time you have to look at nothing

590
00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:46,399
Speaker 3: on a large scale. So when I say you have

591
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:48,040
Speaker 3: to look at everything, you have to realize that you know,

592
00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:50,800
Speaker 3: this is a long grind. You have all these sample

593
00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:54,640
Speaker 3: size of data points over time. But at the same time,

594
00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:57,800
Speaker 3: you can't start each day thinking about what happened yesterday.

595
00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:00,240
Speaker 3: You know, if I was down one thousand dollars yesterday,

596
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:01,919
Speaker 3: I don't have to think I got to get that

597
00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:05,200
Speaker 3: thousand dollars back. You just start off fresh every day.

598
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 3: You start off as if you know you would. You

599
00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:09,840
Speaker 3: didn't gamble at all yesterday, saying if you win a

600
00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:12,240
Speaker 3: thousand dollars yesterday, you don't start off thinking, I got

601
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:14,360
Speaker 3: a thousand dollars of a house money in my pocket.

602
00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:18,040
Speaker 3: I'm going to increase my unit size today and try

603
00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:21,679
Speaker 3: to parlay that thousand up higher. It's it's why I

604
00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:23,879
Speaker 3: say you have to think about the entire big picture,

605
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:26,199
Speaker 3: but you also have to think about just what's the

606
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 3: next step in front of you going forward.

607
00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:32,240
Speaker 1: I'm a big proponent of flat wagering, and I think

608
00:28:32,280 --> 00:28:34,680
Speaker 1: it's a way of it keeps me out of trouble.

609
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:37,240
Speaker 1: So basically, I know that I'm gonna lose, And some

610
00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:39,360
Speaker 1: of the guys say, you're one of the first people

611
00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:41,160
Speaker 1: that says you're I'm gonna lose because I do it

612
00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:42,920
Speaker 1: all the time. I'm gonna have a bad week, I'm

613
00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:45,200
Speaker 1: gonna have a bad day. I'm gonna have good days,

614
00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:47,040
Speaker 1: and I hope to have good months, but I'm gonna

615
00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 1: have stretches where you know, I'm not seeing the board

616
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:51,960
Speaker 1: right or you know I'm not getting the bounces that

617
00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:55,040
Speaker 1: I want. So I flat wager to protect myself in

618
00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:58,040
Speaker 1: my bank roll from those those bad moments.

619
00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:01,320
Speaker 2: How do you do? Do you believe in flat.

620
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:04,480
Speaker 1: Wagering and when the public sees these big bets being

621
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:08,760
Speaker 1: reported like crazy. You know, did you think it's counteractive

622
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:10,680
Speaker 1: or kind of you know, is not a problem when

623
00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 1: people start thinking, well that guy bet ten thousand, why

624
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:15,320
Speaker 1: can I chase? And I normally bet ten bucks, Now

625
00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:16,240
Speaker 1: I'm gonna bet one hundred.

626
00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, So you know, look, there's there's two schools of

627
00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:23,080
Speaker 3: thought when it comes to wagering. Either's the flat staking

628
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 3: that you just talked about, and then there's also the

629
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:28,560
Speaker 3: bet proportional to the size of your bankroll and to

630
00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:31,760
Speaker 3: the edge that you're betting into. Now, for a recreational better,

631
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:35,400
Speaker 3: they don't know how to exactly quantify their edge. Hey,

632
00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:37,440
Speaker 3: for a professional better, you don't always know how to

633
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:41,560
Speaker 3: quantify your edge either. So I understand that that doing

634
00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 3: that bet sizing, that Kelly bet sizing is what it's

635
00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:49,360
Speaker 3: called after John Kelly's formula, which basically means you bet

636
00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:52,600
Speaker 3: your edge, and that's tough for a lot of people. So, hey,

637
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:54,840
Speaker 3: flat staking is a good way to go and maybe

638
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:57,600
Speaker 3: reevaluate your flat steak at the end of the season

639
00:29:57,680 --> 00:29:59,840
Speaker 3: or the beginning of next season. You know, that's a

640
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:03,440
Speaker 3: solid way to go. But too many people decide, you know,

641
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:06,680
Speaker 3: they need to chase for whatever reason, or they need

642
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:08,720
Speaker 3: to they think, you know, just because they're running hot,

643
00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:12,080
Speaker 3: they can increase their stake by by twice as much.

644
00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:15,080
Speaker 3: When you do that, when you increase your stakes for

645
00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:19,120
Speaker 3: whatever reason, you're skewing your results so that the results

646
00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:21,760
Speaker 3: in your larger steak are going to have a much

647
00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:26,640
Speaker 3: heavier weight on your overall result than the the stakes

648
00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:29,160
Speaker 3: that you made back when you were just flat staking.

649
00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:33,400
Speaker 3: And that's that's key, because you know, there's nothing worse

650
00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:35,000
Speaker 3: than if you were to be lucky enough to be

651
00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:38,120
Speaker 3: going sixty percent over this NFL season and this week

652
00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:40,760
Speaker 3: you say, okay, time to time to put it into

653
00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:43,480
Speaker 3: high gear here, I'm going to instead of betting twenty

654
00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 3: I'm going to bet one hundred dollars a game. Well,

655
00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:50,000
Speaker 3: you are now basically all contingent on what your results

656
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:53,239
Speaker 3: are going to be from this point forward, and that

657
00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:55,000
Speaker 3: could very well mean that at the end of the year,

658
00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 3: you might have hit fifty four percent over the year,

659
00:30:57,640 --> 00:31:00,280
Speaker 3: which is great, and you might be a loser because

660
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:03,200
Speaker 3: you dipped back down over this last few weeks of

661
00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:06,959
Speaker 3: the season and ended up with a negative result, and

662
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:09,400
Speaker 3: that that really sucks. You know, that's that's just the

663
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:10,400
Speaker 3: worst position to be in.

664
00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:12,120
Speaker 2: Totally agree with that.

665
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:15,160
Speaker 1: I'm curious because this might be a little bit inside school,

666
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:16,800
Speaker 1: but I cause I've got you here. I want to

667
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:19,440
Speaker 1: I love I want to hear your thoughts on this.

668
00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:22,960
Speaker 1: But how much of a responsibility do us in the media,

669
00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 1: How much do we how much blame should we get,

670
00:31:27,320 --> 00:31:29,920
Speaker 1: or how much of a responsibility do we have to

671
00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:33,280
Speaker 1: investigate when the sports books are giving us information that

672
00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:37,000
Speaker 1: that information is accurate. I get emails every day. Every morning,

673
00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:39,280
Speaker 1: I start with about five companies that I know in

674
00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:41,440
Speaker 1: my inbox. Before my radio show, I'm going to have

675
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:44,640
Speaker 1: their numbers and what they've got, what they're telling me

676
00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:47,560
Speaker 1: that they've got from a number perspective or from a

677
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:52,560
Speaker 1: liability perspective. In the media, should we be reporting that stuff?

678
00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:55,960
Speaker 1: Should we report the big wagers? I mean, what should

679
00:31:56,000 --> 00:31:58,560
Speaker 1: the future of sports gambling media look like.

680
00:31:59,840 --> 00:32:02,520
Speaker 3: I don't have a problem with the media reporting the numbers.

681
00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:06,120
Speaker 3: I have a problem with people reading too much into them.

682
00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:09,200
Speaker 3: You know, if you're told that ninety percent of the

683
00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 3: action and sixty percent of the tickets are on this

684
00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:18,520
Speaker 3: team at William Hill, people read into that too much

685
00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:21,440
Speaker 3: and they go, Okay, ninety percent of the money but

686
00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:24,440
Speaker 3: only sixty percent of the tickets. That means that the

687
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:27,320
Speaker 3: higher wager tickets are on this and therefore the higher

688
00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:30,000
Speaker 3: wager tickets are the sharp betters, and therefore I must

689
00:32:30,000 --> 00:32:34,400
Speaker 3: eat and they read these tea leaves and it's it's

690
00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 3: just not true because first of all, we don't know

691
00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:39,640
Speaker 3: what and I'm using William Hills just an example here.

692
00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:41,480
Speaker 3: I'm not calling them out on or anything. We don't

693
00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 3: know what William Hill's number was on that game. Maybe

694
00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:46,280
Speaker 3: william Hill had the best number on the board, maybe

695
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:48,320
Speaker 3: they had the worst number on the board. But when

696
00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:50,000
Speaker 3: they have the best number, maybe they're going to attract

697
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:52,040
Speaker 3: the sharp money. But when they have the worst number,

698
00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:54,040
Speaker 3: they're going to attract the square money. And we don't

699
00:32:54,120 --> 00:32:57,120
Speaker 3: know that. And so as a result, you're reading tea

700
00:32:57,200 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 3: leaves with incorrect information or incomplete information. And I think

701
00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:04,959
Speaker 3: that the recreational better needs to realize that is that

702
00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:06,880
Speaker 3: these numbers don't really mean a whole lot, and the

703
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:09,120
Speaker 3: sample size could be very low. There might only be

704
00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:13,280
Speaker 3: ten bets on this game at william Hill, you know.

705
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:16,920
Speaker 3: And that's especially true on some of these other sports

706
00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:19,840
Speaker 3: books that you know, might not have as large a

707
00:33:19,880 --> 00:33:23,160
Speaker 3: diverse action pool to draw from. You know, if you're

708
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:26,280
Speaker 3: a sports book, you're only live in Colorado, well you're

709
00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:29,720
Speaker 3: probably going to take a large portion of Colorado centric

710
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:33,320
Speaker 3: action as opposed to someone who's in every state. So

711
00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:36,280
Speaker 3: you know, there's definitely in complete information, and I think

712
00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:40,080
Speaker 3: the recreational betters need to realize that, you know, this

713
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:42,680
Speaker 3: isn't the whole picture. Don't read into it.

714
00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:45,040
Speaker 1: And that's why I freak out when I hear people

715
00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 1: in the media and these are my friends who are

716
00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:48,200
Speaker 1: on my show, and I tell them this to them.

717
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:49,840
Speaker 1: You know that they know how I feel about this.

718
00:33:49,960 --> 00:33:54,760
Speaker 1: But the whole reverse line movement trend like using terms

719
00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:58,960
Speaker 1: that makes you seem smart that oh I know something,

720
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:01,360
Speaker 1: so this is a reverse line line movement game. It

721
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:03,720
Speaker 1: drives me nuts because, like you just mentioned, it's a

722
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:06,680
Speaker 1: snapshot in that exact moment, you could have had twenty

723
00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:09,440
Speaker 1: bets come in before you actually went on the air,

724
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:12,080
Speaker 1: and you don't know that information. You know, if you're

725
00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:15,040
Speaker 1: not in the risk room, you don't know what's going on, right,

726
00:34:15,080 --> 00:34:17,879
Speaker 1: so that all the information is all post dated, it's

727
00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:19,960
Speaker 1: all added out to date by the time we talk

728
00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:20,360
Speaker 1: about it.

729
00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:25,440
Speaker 3: Right, reverse line movement is the cringiest term that I

730
00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:30,040
Speaker 3: know of when it comes to sharp sports betters, if

731
00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:33,200
Speaker 3: you use reverse line movement around me, your your kind

732
00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:35,200
Speaker 3: of your stock drops a little because I realized you're

733
00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:38,680
Speaker 3: you're looking into things that just aren't indicative of anything.

734
00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:42,400
Speaker 3: And a lot of people lean heavily on reverse line

735
00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:45,920
Speaker 3: movement and I just don't understand why, because again, it's

736
00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:50,359
Speaker 3: an incomplete picture. Yeah, there may be situations where, yes,

737
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:53,680
Speaker 3: reverse line movement does indicate sharp action, but there are

738
00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:56,839
Speaker 3: plenty more where it doesn't. And in fact, as you

739
00:34:56,880 --> 00:34:59,440
Speaker 3: get very close to game time, I guarantee you reverse

740
00:34:59,480 --> 00:35:03,239
Speaker 3: line movement is almost one hundred percent contradictory to where

741
00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:06,439
Speaker 3: the sharps are because there's a lot of money being

742
00:35:06,520 --> 00:35:09,239
Speaker 3: kind of played back into a situation that's not the

743
00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:12,879
Speaker 3: sharp side for you know, various hedge reasons and things

744
00:35:12,920 --> 00:35:17,160
Speaker 3: like that. So yeah, be careful when anyone starts talking

745
00:35:17,239 --> 00:35:21,279
Speaker 3: reverse line movement as they're kind of their theory that

746
00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:23,200
Speaker 3: might not be a solid, solid basis.

747
00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:25,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, I completely agree. It makes me flip out.

748
00:35:25,920 --> 00:35:29,040
Speaker 1: And you know, when it comes to fading the public

749
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:32,279
Speaker 1: or riding with you know, a team that doesn't have

750
00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:34,200
Speaker 1: a lot of a lot of action, on it. I

751
00:35:34,239 --> 00:35:35,839
Speaker 1: often tell people that, look, you have to look at

752
00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:37,680
Speaker 1: your own game, you break it down, you believe in

753
00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:40,279
Speaker 1: your own process, and then bet what you think and

754
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:43,400
Speaker 1: sometimes you ride with the public, sometimes you ride with

755
00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:46,200
Speaker 1: the pros. But ultimately you got to believe in yourself

756
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:48,480
Speaker 1: as to what you think, what your money, and take

757
00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:51,240
Speaker 1: personal responsibility, and don't get mad at me or somebody

758
00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:53,000
Speaker 1: else who told you to bet a certain way if

759
00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:54,640
Speaker 1: you didn't go through the whole process that I went

760
00:35:54,680 --> 00:35:56,960
Speaker 1: through to get to that same place and I said, hey,

761
00:35:57,000 --> 00:35:59,319
Speaker 1: bet minus three and a half and it lands at three,

762
00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:02,799
Speaker 1: so I'm wrong, and so you're all angry. How much

763
00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:04,839
Speaker 1: do you look at, you know people when it comes

764
00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:07,799
Speaker 1: to gambling and say, okay, the process that you would

765
00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:10,920
Speaker 1: recommend people doing their own process versus listening to what

766
00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:12,960
Speaker 1: you hear in the media.

767
00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:16,040
Speaker 3: You will learn so much more if you try to

768
00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:18,799
Speaker 3: do this yourself, then if you just try to be

769
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:23,399
Speaker 3: spoon fed everything you know. Look, Matt, you and I

770
00:36:23,440 --> 00:36:25,400
Speaker 3: we both talk about how you shouldn't pay for picks,

771
00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:28,200
Speaker 3: and let's just assume that your audience knows this now,

772
00:36:28,280 --> 00:36:30,480
Speaker 3: that they shouldn't pay for pa They know this now, yes,

773
00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:34,560
Speaker 3: But beyond that, a lot of people just seem to

774
00:36:34,560 --> 00:36:37,239
Speaker 3: want to pick up on whatever they hear as their

775
00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:40,760
Speaker 3: narrative for how the game is going to go. I really,

776
00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:42,680
Speaker 3: you will learn so much more if you just try

777
00:36:42,680 --> 00:36:45,680
Speaker 3: to think for yourself, because you know what, when you're wrong,

778
00:36:46,160 --> 00:36:48,840
Speaker 3: you're gonna you're gonna put that right on square on

779
00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:51,239
Speaker 3: your back and you're gonna say, oh, you know, I

780
00:36:51,320 --> 00:36:53,839
Speaker 3: learned from this. One of the things that I think

781
00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:57,160
Speaker 3: has helped me the most about being a professional gambler

782
00:36:57,239 --> 00:37:00,200
Speaker 3: is I've been wrong a lot of times, and I've

783
00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:03,480
Speaker 3: learned from being wrong that I can't do that again,

784
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:06,160
Speaker 3: and as a result, then I tend to make better

785
00:37:06,239 --> 00:37:10,400
Speaker 3: choices the next time around. If you're quietly just just

786
00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:14,120
Speaker 3: following somebody and whatever they say, you bet, when they're wrong,

787
00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:15,960
Speaker 3: you point to them and you go, you were wrong.

788
00:37:16,360 --> 00:37:18,200
Speaker 3: You know I wasn't wrong. I followed you bet, Yeah

789
00:37:18,200 --> 00:37:21,319
Speaker 3: that was dumb, but you were wrong. You can't think

790
00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:23,160
Speaker 3: like that because you don't know why you were wrong.

791
00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:27,719
Speaker 3: So it's really important when you're kind of starting out

792
00:37:27,719 --> 00:37:29,920
Speaker 3: in this or making your way with this, just do

793
00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:32,239
Speaker 3: your own work. You know you'll learn so much more.

794
00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:34,799
Speaker 3: It'll speed the plow forward for you to where you

795
00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:37,680
Speaker 3: can become a winning better, or a break even better,

796
00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:40,400
Speaker 3: or a better that you know feels more comfortable about

797
00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:43,439
Speaker 3: their action at the end of the season. I really

798
00:37:43,440 --> 00:37:47,279
Speaker 3: can't stress that enough. It's just so important to learn

799
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:50,880
Speaker 3: from your mistakes and take ownership of your process.

800
00:37:51,320 --> 00:37:53,759
Speaker 1: He is Captain Jack Andrews. If folks want to get

801
00:37:53,800 --> 00:37:56,600
Speaker 1: more information, find the videos, find your Twitter account. How

802
00:37:56,640 --> 00:37:58,160
Speaker 1: can they do so?

803
00:37:58,160 --> 00:38:00,359
Speaker 3: So you can go onto YouTube and you can search

804
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:02,520
Speaker 3: for Captain Jack Andrews. You'll probably have to put in

805
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:04,439
Speaker 3: all three of those words. You put in Captain Jack,

806
00:38:04,440 --> 00:38:06,000
Speaker 3: You're either going to get a Billy Joel song or

807
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:10,759
Speaker 3: you're going to get Johnny Depp Captain Jack Andrews. I

808
00:38:10,840 --> 00:38:12,120
Speaker 3: got a lot of videos up there. I think I

809
00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:15,360
Speaker 3: got about sixty videos now, some of them. You know,

810
00:38:15,400 --> 00:38:18,000
Speaker 3: as I've progressed along, the quality of the video has

811
00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:20,960
Speaker 3: gotten better, the production values have gone up. So keep

812
00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:23,400
Speaker 3: that in mind. And if you want to follow me

813
00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:26,280
Speaker 3: on Twitter, I tend to comment a lot about the industry,

814
00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:29,040
Speaker 3: a lot about sharp bedding, a lot about how things

815
00:38:29,040 --> 00:38:33,040
Speaker 3: are progressing in various states. It's cap Jack two thousand.

816
00:38:33,680 --> 00:38:38,160
Speaker 3: I picked that alias back in two thousand and so

817
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:41,560
Speaker 3: that's why I have Capjack two thousand and basically, yeah,

818
00:38:41,760 --> 00:38:44,960
Speaker 3: I'm just talking about all things related to gambling, gambling Twitter.

819
00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:47,480
Speaker 3: You know. Sometimes I have some fun with it. Sometimes

820
00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:50,759
Speaker 3: I put out some quality information, but it's just all

821
00:38:50,800 --> 00:38:51,600
Speaker 3: a big conversation.

822
00:38:52,040 --> 00:38:56,200
Speaker 1: It's phenomenal and as somebody who is I'm forty three,

823
00:38:56,360 --> 00:38:58,839
Speaker 1: I've been gambling for twenty years, but I'm still learning

824
00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:01,000
Speaker 1: as much as I possibly can, and at least from

825
00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 1: my perspective, I learned a ton from your videos and

826
00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:05,960
Speaker 1: a ton from listening to you and all all your

827
00:39:06,040 --> 00:39:09,040
Speaker 1: various media appearances. So you've helped me out. So for

828
00:39:09,120 --> 00:39:11,439
Speaker 1: me personally, let me say thank you. And I'm really

829
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:13,640
Speaker 1: hoping that the audience, that the Deli Juice audience will

830
00:39:13,640 --> 00:39:15,520
Speaker 1: search you out and watch as many as your videos

831
00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:18,120
Speaker 1: because it will make them better gamblers, bar none, They'll

832
00:39:18,120 --> 00:39:20,799
Speaker 1: come away smarter from watching and listening to you. So

833
00:39:20,840 --> 00:39:23,479
Speaker 1: thank you for the time. Really appreciate you coming on cool.

834
00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:25,280
Speaker 3: Thank you, Matt. This has been enjoyable.

835
00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:27,680
Speaker 1: All right, that's going to do it once again here

836
00:39:27,719 --> 00:39:30,400
Speaker 1: for the Deli Juice podcast for Friday Morning again. Purdue

837
00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:33,000
Speaker 1: over sixteen and a half and Syracuse over fifty six

838
00:39:33,040 --> 00:39:35,600
Speaker 1: and a half for tonight on Friday Night. Enjoy the games.

839
00:39:35,760 --> 00:39:38,160
Speaker 1: I will talk to you on the Discord channel, Bettingpros

840
00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:39,000
Speaker 1: dot com.

841
00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:41,480
Speaker 2: Slash chat at sports Talk Matt.

842
00:39:41,480 --> 00:39:44,880
Speaker 1: That's my Twitter account every morning, including tomorrow morning for

843
00:39:45,000 --> 00:39:48,920
Speaker 1: Saturday football. In college football, it's the Deli Juice Podcast

844
00:39:49,200 --> 00:40:00,640
Speaker 1: presented by betmgm off Bettingpros dot Com.