1
00:00:01,280 --> 00:00:05,640
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week Inside from the reporters and

2
00:00:05,840 --> 00:00:09,400
Speaker 1: editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

3
00:00:09,480 --> 00:00:13,640
Speaker 1: global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week

4
00:00:13,680 --> 00:00:18,600
Speaker 1: Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebec from Bloomberg Radio.

5
00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:23,280
Speaker 1: All Right, everybody, you know, there's a lot going on,

6
00:00:23,760 --> 00:00:27,160
Speaker 1: certainly today again this week the last couple of weeks.

7
00:00:27,160 --> 00:00:29,960
Speaker 1: When it comes to bank story, a bank under pressure.

8
00:00:30,080 --> 00:00:32,360
Speaker 1: We've seen it down the most in three years and

9
00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:35,320
Speaker 1: the cost of ensuring its debt against default rising in

10
00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:37,760
Speaker 1: a sell off. Though that city grow battalists describe as

11
00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:42,080
Speaker 1: irrational Clock two ticking up bids for Silicon Valley, Bridge Bank, APM,

12
00:00:42,120 --> 00:00:45,080
Speaker 1: Wall Street Time tonight meantime shares a First Republic. We

13
00:00:45,159 --> 00:00:47,720
Speaker 1: continue to wonder about what's next for this one. It's

14
00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:50,880
Speaker 1: down about ninety percent year to date. So our next

15
00:00:50,920 --> 00:00:54,120
Speaker 1: guest has been following and covering the bank sector for decades.

16
00:00:54,160 --> 00:00:56,760
Speaker 1: He was a go to for many of us here

17
00:00:56,800 --> 00:00:59,160
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg during the Great Financial Crisis, still is a

18
00:00:59,240 --> 00:01:01,480
Speaker 1: go to when it comes to things in the banking world.

19
00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:04,920
Speaker 1: Chris Whalen is institutional risk analyst at Whalen Global advisors,

20
00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:07,920
Speaker 1: an investment banker who focuses on the banking, mortgage, finance,

21
00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:12,479
Speaker 1: and fintech sect sectors. He's authors, let's try that again,

22
00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:14,960
Speaker 1: author of several books. Chris, you have quite a resume.

23
00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:17,560
Speaker 1: He's worked at the New York Fed, up on Capitol Hill,

24
00:01:17,600 --> 00:01:21,080
Speaker 1: a bear Stearns at crawbonn Rating, at Institutional Risk Analytics.

25
00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:23,080
Speaker 1: This is why we have him here on this Friday.

26
00:01:23,080 --> 00:01:25,040
Speaker 1: He joins us on the phone in New York City. Chris,

27
00:01:25,319 --> 00:01:27,880
Speaker 1: really grateful for you for joining us on what's been

28
00:01:27,959 --> 00:01:33,800
Speaker 1: a busy, busy week. We all learned and leaned on

29
00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:36,960
Speaker 1: you during the two thousand and eight bank and mortgage crisis.

30
00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:42,520
Speaker 1: Are there any similarities to today and to then? No,

31
00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:46,880
Speaker 1: it's actually quite different, Carol, and hello Hello. For decade,

32
00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:49,680
Speaker 1: the FED made it so the credit credit didn't matter,

33
00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:53,200
Speaker 1: so you didn't have to call me. Right, Yes, on

34
00:01:53,400 --> 00:01:56,360
Speaker 1: market didn't matter. The Fed took it off the table, right,

35
00:01:56,720 --> 00:01:59,440
Speaker 1: and now it's back on the table in a huge way.

36
00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:03,640
Speaker 1: Would compare this more to December twenty eighteen, which was

37
00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:06,920
Speaker 1: a crisis in the money markets, except this time the

38
00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:10,480
Speaker 1: crisis is really measured by the ten year treasury. So

39
00:02:10,520 --> 00:02:12,320
Speaker 1: if you go back to the third quarter when the

40
00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:16,400
Speaker 1: banks reported that really ugly number for unrealized losses on

41
00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:20,040
Speaker 1: their securities, and people finally started paying attention to that,

42
00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:24,280
Speaker 1: and they said, oh, you know, eight hundred billion dollars,

43
00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:26,840
Speaker 1: that's a lot of money. Right, It got better than

44
00:02:26,880 --> 00:02:29,480
Speaker 1: a fourth quarter because we had a bond rally. This

45
00:02:29,560 --> 00:02:31,760
Speaker 1: quarter is going to look a little better too. But

46
00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:37,560
Speaker 1: the problem hasn't gone away because during twenty twenty twenty one,

47
00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:41,040
Speaker 1: we packed three quarters of the mortgage market into a

48
00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:44,280
Speaker 1: range of about two and a half three percent in

49
00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:47,679
Speaker 1: terms of coupons. So if you know you own a

50
00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:51,440
Speaker 1: Jenny May three and the fed rais has fed funds

51
00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:55,520
Speaker 1: six points, what happens to that security? It trades in

52
00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:59,760
Speaker 1: the seventies. And this is why pranks are having a problem. Now.

53
00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:03,760
Speaker 1: Forget about the securities, which we can see. It's called

54
00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:08,760
Speaker 1: accumulated other comprehensive income, and it's a number that's negative

55
00:03:08,880 --> 00:03:12,000
Speaker 1: right now, a big number. Well, everybody's worried about the

56
00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:14,960
Speaker 1: loan book too, because they have the same problem. The

57
00:03:15,040 --> 00:03:18,280
Speaker 1: loans from that period when we were fighting COVID are

58
00:03:18,320 --> 00:03:22,240
Speaker 1: now deep underwater. Twenty points underwater. You write, you have

59
00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:24,200
Speaker 1: a note doubt that you put. I believe it was

60
00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:27,800
Speaker 1: yesterday and you. By doubling the fed's balance sheet between

61
00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:30,200
Speaker 1: twenty twenty and twenty twenty one from over four trillion

62
00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:33,320
Speaker 1: to now nine trillion to nominal dollars, the FOMC has

63
00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:37,520
Speaker 1: injected vast amounts of market risk into the US banking system. Okay,

64
00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:41,080
Speaker 1: that's a lot of risk. So do we yet know

65
00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:44,960
Speaker 1: how this ends? Well, the FED is going to have

66
00:03:45,040 --> 00:03:47,880
Speaker 1: to drop rates, Carol, very simply. And I'll tell you why.

67
00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:51,360
Speaker 1: The small banks out there, who are trying to hold

68
00:03:51,640 --> 00:03:55,200
Speaker 1: the most important customers they have, which is their business customers,

69
00:03:55,960 --> 00:03:58,840
Speaker 1: are fighting a losing battle because let's say I'm paying

70
00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:02,240
Speaker 1: them two percent now on their balances, and I'm even

71
00:04:02,360 --> 00:04:05,200
Speaker 1: arranging ways to give them yield on their ESK grows,

72
00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:09,320
Speaker 1: the payroll balances, stuff that normally we don't pay interest on, right,

73
00:04:09,760 --> 00:04:11,680
Speaker 1: But they can get four percent on a tea bill.

74
00:04:12,880 --> 00:04:14,920
Speaker 1: And so they come into the office, they sit down

75
00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:17,000
Speaker 1: with you, and they say, Carol, I can get four

76
00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:18,800
Speaker 1: percent on a tea bill, why should I keep my

77
00:04:18,880 --> 00:04:22,720
Speaker 1: money with you? Powell and the FED have been insensitive

78
00:04:22,880 --> 00:04:27,000
Speaker 1: to the fact that they execute monetary policy through the

79
00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:30,640
Speaker 1: bond market. And when they did QWE in twenty twenty

80
00:04:30,680 --> 00:04:33,200
Speaker 1: and twenty one, not only did they cause a problem

81
00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:36,080
Speaker 1: for the banks, but they tied their own hands. And

82
00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:38,560
Speaker 1: yet they want to pretend that they didn't. You see,

83
00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:41,960
Speaker 1: right now, if you look at the ten year, it's

84
00:04:41,960 --> 00:04:44,680
Speaker 1: headed back to three percent. What should the FED be

85
00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:47,960
Speaker 1: doing right now, Carol? They should be selling mortgage backed securities.

86
00:04:48,480 --> 00:04:51,159
Speaker 1: They should peg that ten year to about three and

87
00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:53,120
Speaker 1: a half and say to the desk in New York

88
00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:56,719
Speaker 1: if it goes below three and a half cell. When

89
00:04:56,720 --> 00:04:58,800
Speaker 1: I worked at the FED, we could do things like that.

90
00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:02,760
Speaker 1: But the FED today is so bureaucratic and so assified

91
00:05:03,279 --> 00:05:05,520
Speaker 1: that not only do they not know what's going on

92
00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:08,280
Speaker 1: in the markets, but they model liquidity. You know how

93
00:05:08,279 --> 00:05:12,919
Speaker 1: they model it versus GDP. Okay, the GDP model is

94
00:05:12,920 --> 00:05:15,480
Speaker 1: not going to give you the answer you want. Right right,

95
00:05:15,680 --> 00:05:18,600
Speaker 1: I'm going to get you into just come on in. Yeah, Chris,

96
00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:21,000
Speaker 1: I was eager to hear from you about this because

97
00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:24,039
Speaker 1: when I've been speaking with portfolio managers looking more longer out,

98
00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:26,120
Speaker 1: some of them are thinking. When they're looking and seeing

99
00:05:26,160 --> 00:05:29,680
Speaker 1: where certain banks are trading at even brokerages, they're kind

100
00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:31,919
Speaker 1: of eager to potentially step in and start buying. But

101
00:05:31,960 --> 00:05:34,160
Speaker 1: what concerns them, and you brought it up, is that

102
00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:36,840
Speaker 1: yield curve. How much more pain do you think even

103
00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:39,479
Speaker 1: though we've seen some steepening happening there, do you think

104
00:05:39,560 --> 00:05:43,680
Speaker 1: that really forebodes for banks right now? Well, like I say,

105
00:05:43,800 --> 00:05:47,240
Speaker 1: until the Fed relents and has a discussion not only

106
00:05:47,240 --> 00:05:51,200
Speaker 1: with us in the market, but with Congress. And I

107
00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:54,040
Speaker 1: think they have avoided doing this because they don't want

108
00:05:54,040 --> 00:05:56,800
Speaker 1: to talk to Congress. They think they can make decisions

109
00:05:56,839 --> 00:05:59,800
Speaker 1: on their own. They're wrong. The biggest problem with the

110
00:06:00,120 --> 00:06:03,720
Speaker 1: today is hubris. They have to realize that they are

111
00:06:03,760 --> 00:06:06,320
Speaker 1: not allowed to make certain decisions, and when they don't

112
00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:09,839
Speaker 1: have any answer, or if policy is tied their hands

113
00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:12,279
Speaker 1: in some ways, they need to go back to Capitol

114
00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:15,800
Speaker 1: Hill and get some guidance. You know, what they've done

115
00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:19,000
Speaker 1: to the bond market, frankly, is almost bordering on the

116
00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:22,920
Speaker 1: criminal because it'll take generations to fix this. I'll give

117
00:06:22,920 --> 00:06:25,200
Speaker 1: you an example from my own world. I have a

118
00:06:25,200 --> 00:06:28,600
Speaker 1: three percent mortgage to sitting in a Fanning may Pool. Right.

119
00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:31,000
Speaker 1: That mortgage will not be in the money again in

120
00:06:31,080 --> 00:06:34,680
Speaker 1: my lifetime unless we drive rates down to nothing. We'd

121
00:06:34,680 --> 00:06:37,560
Speaker 1: have to drive rates back down to two percent for

122
00:06:37,640 --> 00:06:40,719
Speaker 1: that three to be refinanciable. But Chris helped me out

123
00:06:40,760 --> 00:06:43,240
Speaker 1: because part of the conversations in the narrative that we've

124
00:06:43,279 --> 00:06:45,320
Speaker 1: certainly been having is that the low rate environment that

125
00:06:45,320 --> 00:06:48,920
Speaker 1: we had was the abnormal environment that that's not typical.

126
00:06:49,320 --> 00:06:53,480
Speaker 1: So how was the fad supposed to kind of come

127
00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:55,960
Speaker 1: out of that and get back to a more normal

128
00:06:56,080 --> 00:07:00,200
Speaker 1: rate environment. You can't. I mean, Ben Bernankey in the

129
00:07:00,440 --> 00:07:05,559
Speaker 1: early conversations with the FOMC about quantitative easing, basically told

130
00:07:05,560 --> 00:07:08,400
Speaker 1: them this. He said, once you put down this road,

131
00:07:08,760 --> 00:07:12,720
Speaker 1: you can't come back. And it doesn't matter whether you

132
00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:15,600
Speaker 1: talked about the balance sheet and reducing the size of

133
00:07:15,640 --> 00:07:17,760
Speaker 1: the balance sheet. If you take too much liquidity out,

134
00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:20,520
Speaker 1: the market seizes up because they got used to it.

135
00:07:20,920 --> 00:07:23,680
Speaker 1: You know, you gave them five six trillion dollars that

136
00:07:23,760 --> 00:07:28,120
Speaker 1: they didn't have before. Also, the price aspect of this,

137
00:07:28,200 --> 00:07:31,400
Speaker 1: as we've discussed earlier, is very difficult to deal with

138
00:07:31,520 --> 00:07:34,280
Speaker 1: because if three quarters of the mortgage market is locked

139
00:07:34,320 --> 00:07:37,680
Speaker 1: up in these low coupons, not only is it impossible

140
00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:40,400
Speaker 1: to fundness paper, you know, SOFA is at four and

141
00:07:40,400 --> 00:07:43,880
Speaker 1: a half percent today. That means, you know, figure reposit

142
00:07:43,960 --> 00:07:46,000
Speaker 1: at the point above it. How do you finance a

143
00:07:46,080 --> 00:07:50,880
Speaker 1: Jinny May two? You don't. And the volatility of these

144
00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:54,680
Speaker 1: low coupon securities because so much of the repayment is

145
00:07:54,760 --> 00:07:58,000
Speaker 1: back ended. Right. You guys know this at Bloomberg better

146
00:07:58,000 --> 00:08:00,680
Speaker 1: than everybody at low coupon securities. We're of all little

147
00:08:00,680 --> 00:08:03,480
Speaker 1: bit of high coupon security. So nobody wants to own

148
00:08:03,520 --> 00:08:06,880
Speaker 1: this paper, honestly. You want you want a solution, We'll

149
00:08:06,920 --> 00:08:09,120
Speaker 1: fix us next week. The Fed should buy all that

150
00:08:09,200 --> 00:08:13,800
Speaker 1: paper back wow wow, Okay, yeah, par, they should buy

151
00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:15,760
Speaker 1: it all back at par. And then they have to

152
00:08:15,760 --> 00:08:18,200
Speaker 1: go up to Capitol Hill and say, we were trying

153
00:08:18,200 --> 00:08:20,960
Speaker 1: to deal with a Dickey situation. We had people on

154
00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:24,160
Speaker 1: the hill scream and do something, do something, save the economy, right,

155
00:08:24,360 --> 00:08:26,880
Speaker 1: and we did, But now we have a mess. Well,

156
00:08:26,880 --> 00:08:29,800
Speaker 1: what do you think Janet Yellen and Jay Powell and

157
00:08:29,880 --> 00:08:33,160
Speaker 1: other regulators who are now meeting in an unscheduled meeting

158
00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:36,400
Speaker 1: and we expect something out from them, do you any

159
00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:38,720
Speaker 1: indications of what they're talking about? Because it does feel

160
00:08:38,720 --> 00:08:40,600
Speaker 1: like there's been some shoring up in the markets for

161
00:08:40,640 --> 00:08:45,400
Speaker 1: whatever reason. Yeah, they keep trying to throw solutions, but

162
00:08:45,480 --> 00:08:48,680
Speaker 1: every time the FED takes a step, they create another problem.

163
00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:53,600
Speaker 1: You see, they have a very blunt instrument. And honestly,

164
00:08:53,720 --> 00:08:55,760
Speaker 1: you know, I deal with a lot of federal agencies

165
00:08:55,800 --> 00:09:00,080
Speaker 1: in Washington. The Biden administration has the weakest team in

166
00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:04,480
Speaker 1: terms of financial market knowledge and experience that I can

167
00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:07,600
Speaker 1: remember in my lifetime. You know, the people I worked

168
00:09:07,640 --> 00:09:09,559
Speaker 1: with at the FED in New York, like Paul Vulker

169
00:09:09,559 --> 00:09:12,920
Speaker 1: and Jered Corrigan, they knew markets, okay, they knew how

170
00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:15,760
Speaker 1: to clean up masses, and they also understood the limits

171
00:09:15,760 --> 00:09:19,880
Speaker 1: of monetary policy. And again, remember the FED executes monetary

172
00:09:19,880 --> 00:09:22,920
Speaker 1: policy in the bond market. So if you go big,

173
00:09:23,040 --> 00:09:25,679
Speaker 1: which is what they did after twenty eighteen because they

174
00:09:25,679 --> 00:09:28,960
Speaker 1: didn't want another liquidity crisis, right, their inventions were good,

175
00:09:29,640 --> 00:09:33,240
Speaker 1: But by doing that today that three trillion dollars of

176
00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:36,480
Speaker 1: mortgage backed securities that they own is really bigger than

177
00:09:36,520 --> 00:09:40,320
Speaker 1: their treasury portfolio. If you measure the duration, it's more

178
00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:44,200
Speaker 1: like twelve to fifteen trillion dollars. And that's one reason

179
00:09:44,240 --> 00:09:46,440
Speaker 1: why that ten year note doesn't want to go above

180
00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:50,199
Speaker 1: four percent. The FED owns all the duration and they

181
00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:54,360
Speaker 1: don't hedge that book. It's entirely passive. So they've done

182
00:09:54,400 --> 00:09:58,679
Speaker 1: structural things to our marketplace that will literally take generations

183
00:09:58,720 --> 00:10:02,400
Speaker 1: to facts. And I'm very concerned about this. I think

184
00:10:02,440 --> 00:10:04,840
Speaker 1: that we need to put some limitations on what the

185
00:10:04,880 --> 00:10:07,920
Speaker 1: FED does. When the FED gets to those limits, they've

186
00:10:07,920 --> 00:10:09,680
Speaker 1: got to go back up the Capitol Hill and have

187
00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:13,079
Speaker 1: a public conversation. They can't do this behind closed doors.

188
00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:15,319
Speaker 1: Because I want to bring jessin because we're talking in

189
00:10:15,360 --> 00:10:17,960
Speaker 1: the break about what we're hearing from some of the

190
00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:21,840
Speaker 1: FED speakers are former, if you will, and what they

191
00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:24,880
Speaker 1: are talking about where the FED is going. Looking at

192
00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:28,640
Speaker 1: Jim Bullard earlier this morning talking about a peak potential

193
00:10:28,760 --> 00:10:31,560
Speaker 1: ternal rate a on five point six percent, it's interesting

194
00:10:31,559 --> 00:10:33,360
Speaker 1: because you were talking about how you think the FED

195
00:10:33,520 --> 00:10:36,760
Speaker 1: should cut rates. What sort of implications could there be

196
00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:39,200
Speaker 1: if we don't actually see that from the Fed and

197
00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:43,760
Speaker 1: what that means for equities. Well, if the FED takes

198
00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:46,520
Speaker 1: rates up to where Jim Bullard has just said, then

199
00:10:46,600 --> 00:10:49,120
Speaker 1: look out, I think we're going to have a meltdown

200
00:10:49,120 --> 00:10:52,840
Speaker 1: in the banking industry. See what's happening right now is

201
00:10:52,880 --> 00:10:55,959
Speaker 1: even if you ignore the price action in these securities,

202
00:10:56,520 --> 00:10:59,640
Speaker 1: a lot of banks are underwater on some of those

203
00:10:59,640 --> 00:11:02,679
Speaker 1: paper and so the treasurer of the bank's going to

204
00:11:02,720 --> 00:11:05,400
Speaker 1: walk into a room at some point screaming and saying,

205
00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:07,800
Speaker 1: you got to sell this paper. Now, I have to

206
00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:10,000
Speaker 1: reinvest at a higher rate or we're going to go

207
00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:13,080
Speaker 1: out of business. And then when you have instability on

208
00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:16,680
Speaker 1: the funding side, that makes life even more complicated. So

209
00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:19,440
Speaker 1: the clock is ticking, and the Fed can provide all

210
00:11:19,480 --> 00:11:22,240
Speaker 1: sorts of liquidity measures and everything else, but they're going

211
00:11:22,280 --> 00:11:26,760
Speaker 1: to expand their balance sheet, as we've already seen. I think, honestly,

212
00:11:26,800 --> 00:11:31,080
Speaker 1: there's a kind of a false conversation, a false narrative

213
00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:33,720
Speaker 1: in the US that's somehow we can keep inflation low.

214
00:11:34,000 --> 00:11:37,640
Speaker 1: The society loves inflation. Come on, you know, we have

215
00:11:37,720 --> 00:11:39,920
Speaker 1: to get to the point where we can actually get

216
00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:44,360
Speaker 1: Congress to fix Humphrey Hawkins. Drop the full employment part

217
00:11:44,360 --> 00:11:47,040
Speaker 1: of the mandate. And let's remember the third manddate. But

218
00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:50,840
Speaker 1: we never talk about, which was stable long term interest rates. Okay,

219
00:11:51,240 --> 00:11:53,680
Speaker 1: in the old days when inflation was a problem, when

220
00:11:53,679 --> 00:11:56,160
Speaker 1: I was a kid, were worried about such things. We

221
00:11:56,160 --> 00:11:59,320
Speaker 1: don't do that now because everybody just assumes we could

222
00:11:59,320 --> 00:12:02,559
Speaker 1: do whatever we one. You know, the dollar one after

223
00:12:02,600 --> 00:12:04,240
Speaker 1: two thousand and eight. You can see this on the

224
00:12:04,240 --> 00:12:08,400
Speaker 1: Bloomberg what happened to swaps dollar fixed floating swaps that

225
00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:12,640
Speaker 1: went into a discount. There's no other country in the

226
00:12:12,679 --> 00:12:16,000
Speaker 1: world that has that gift, Okay, but we have it.

227
00:12:16,600 --> 00:12:20,640
Speaker 1: So we keep pushing the limits on spending, on deficits

228
00:12:20,640 --> 00:12:23,000
Speaker 1: and everything else, we're going to lose that. We're going

229
00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:25,520
Speaker 1: to be like everyone else. So I think that this

230
00:12:25,559 --> 00:12:28,959
Speaker 1: conversation about inflation versus growth has got to come back

231
00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:32,520
Speaker 1: to Washington, go back up the Capitol Hill and say,

232
00:12:32,559 --> 00:12:35,200
Speaker 1: how can we give the Fed a mandate that they

233
00:12:35,240 --> 00:12:38,560
Speaker 1: can actually accomplish, Because let's be fair, the two percent

234
00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:41,120
Speaker 1: target for inflation is a joke, which is we're not

235
00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:42,839
Speaker 1: going to get back there. Yeah, and we've had a

236
00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:45,280
Speaker 1: lot of conversations about that that that doesn't make sense.

237
00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:47,080
Speaker 1: We've also talked about, you know, Chris, and I don't

238
00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:48,840
Speaker 1: know how you think about what this means for the

239
00:12:48,920 --> 00:12:52,760
Speaker 1: US dollars specifically. We've got a great Simon White did

240
00:12:52,760 --> 00:12:55,240
Speaker 1: a great column on Bloomberg and he just talked about

241
00:12:55,280 --> 00:12:58,120
Speaker 1: the dollar being the liability of the central Bank, and

242
00:12:58,280 --> 00:13:01,960
Speaker 1: if we continue to see what we're seeing in terms

243
00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:04,800
Speaker 1: of what feels like, you know, certainly moral hazard for

244
00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:08,680
Speaker 1: banks that he talks about further erosion of the dollar's value,

245
00:13:08,800 --> 00:13:12,559
Speaker 1: and that how that would really kill the purchasing power

246
00:13:12,559 --> 00:13:15,160
Speaker 1: that we've seen of the US currency over the last century.

247
00:13:15,200 --> 00:13:17,959
Speaker 1: I mean, there's so many implications, so I don't know

248
00:13:18,000 --> 00:13:21,800
Speaker 1: the complicated message. There is not one answer here, and

249
00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:24,160
Speaker 1: it's very important to state that. And we got to

250
00:13:24,200 --> 00:13:27,560
Speaker 1: realize that folks at the FED are trying very honestly

251
00:13:27,600 --> 00:13:29,960
Speaker 1: and I think in a very genuine way to do

252
00:13:30,080 --> 00:13:34,280
Speaker 1: their jobs. But imagine sitting behind those closed doors dealing

253
00:13:34,280 --> 00:13:36,400
Speaker 1: with what they're looking at today. So what don't we

254
00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:39,720
Speaker 1: hear from What would you like to hear from Janet Yellen?

255
00:13:39,880 --> 00:13:43,000
Speaker 1: What does she need to say? Maybe today? I think

256
00:13:43,000 --> 00:13:45,720
Speaker 1: she needs to announce she's going back to the private life.

257
00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:48,920
Speaker 1: Meet another Secretary of the Treasury. And I got the candidate,

258
00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:54,320
Speaker 1: Sheila Bear, a nice you know, progressive Republican from Kansas

259
00:13:54,400 --> 00:13:57,720
Speaker 1: who could easily be confirmed by the Senate tomorrow, who

260
00:13:57,760 --> 00:14:03,080
Speaker 1: understands finance. There's only two people at senior agency levels

261
00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:05,560
Speaker 1: in Washington today that know what's going on. What is

262
00:14:05,600 --> 00:14:08,920
Speaker 1: Marty Grumberg at the FDIC who's most senior regulator in

263
00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:11,800
Speaker 1: the system. And the other is Sandra Thompson over at

264
00:14:11,800 --> 00:14:15,400
Speaker 1: the FHFA, who's a veteran at the FDIC, worked at

265
00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:19,000
Speaker 1: Resolution Trust, worked at Goldman Sachs. These people know what's

266
00:14:19,040 --> 00:14:23,160
Speaker 1: going on. The rest of this cast of characters are politicians. Well,

267
00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:25,880
Speaker 1: they really don't have the shoes for this. During the crisis,

268
00:14:25,880 --> 00:14:27,680
Speaker 1: we know Jamie Diamondt Well, first of all, has gone

269
00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:32,160
Speaker 1: up and talked with the Treasury Sector Secretary this time around.

270
00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:34,320
Speaker 1: During the crisis, I think there was a lot of conversations,

271
00:14:34,320 --> 00:14:37,880
Speaker 1: as you well know, between government and the banks and

272
00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:39,760
Speaker 1: the private sector, if you will. Is any of that

273
00:14:39,800 --> 00:14:42,720
Speaker 1: happening now that you're aware of, Not as much as

274
00:14:43,120 --> 00:14:45,280
Speaker 1: it needs to happen. You know, when I worked at

275
00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:48,040
Speaker 1: the FED, we always talked to the people in bank supervision.

276
00:14:48,280 --> 00:14:50,960
Speaker 1: They don't do that now. FED governors never talked to

277
00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:53,400
Speaker 1: the people down the hallway at soup and reag and

278
00:14:53,440 --> 00:14:56,840
Speaker 1: say how is our policy impacting the financial markets? How

279
00:14:56,920 --> 00:15:00,520
Speaker 1: is our policy impacting banks? They never asked that question.

280
00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:03,960
Speaker 1: So I think there's a level of isolation and a

281
00:15:04,040 --> 00:15:07,320
Speaker 1: lack of information in this data dependent central bank of

282
00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:10,640
Speaker 1: ours that's really something we need to work on. They

283
00:15:10,760 --> 00:15:13,280
Speaker 1: need to know how their policies are going to affect

284
00:15:13,320 --> 00:15:15,920
Speaker 1: the bond market. You know what happens if this ten

285
00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:18,760
Speaker 1: year goes below three percent and we're sitting here talking

286
00:15:18,800 --> 00:15:23,520
Speaker 1: about low Yeah, now you're right and looking at the

287
00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:26,200
Speaker 1: two year as well, where that's treating. When you're talking

288
00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:28,880
Speaker 1: about the potential pain that could be on the way, Chris,

289
00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:32,120
Speaker 1: what other cracks are you seeing beginning to emerge under

290
00:15:32,120 --> 00:15:36,000
Speaker 1: the hood when it comes to financial institutions right now, Well,

291
00:15:36,040 --> 00:15:40,000
Speaker 1: anyone who owns bonds would leverage has a problem, so

292
00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:44,880
Speaker 1: reads other types of investment vehicles, private funds. Anyone who

293
00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:48,320
Speaker 1: applies leverage to these here to four risk free securities,

294
00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:52,400
Speaker 1: right Treasury is the mortgage bacts is really in a

295
00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:54,800
Speaker 1: tough spot because they have to make a decision to way.

296
00:15:55,160 --> 00:15:56,800
Speaker 1: You know, let's say we have this rally. Now the

297
00:15:56,840 --> 00:15:59,760
Speaker 1: ten year is your benchmark, by the way, for pain

298
00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:02,360
Speaker 1: on all of these securities. If we get down to

299
00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:05,840
Speaker 1: three percent, that may be a big zelly opportunity the cleanhouse,

300
00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:08,120
Speaker 1: not that rid of all of this stuff and go

301
00:16:08,280 --> 00:16:13,120
Speaker 1: buy higher coupon securities. That may be an opportunity. But

302
00:16:13,160 --> 00:16:15,000
Speaker 1: I think for a lot of little banks. For example,

303
00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:17,480
Speaker 1: they don't have the capital to take the losses. And

304
00:16:17,520 --> 00:16:20,280
Speaker 1: there are some agencies like the federal homelan banks who

305
00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:23,400
Speaker 1: own this collateral. Two we don't talk about that. So

306
00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:26,280
Speaker 1: the Fed has put stress on the system as they

307
00:16:26,320 --> 00:16:30,120
Speaker 1: have pursued monetary policy. But they forgot that if they

308
00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:34,080
Speaker 1: moved things too quickly and too much, you know, six points, really,

309
00:16:35,040 --> 00:16:39,480
Speaker 1: then everybody's insolvent. Is there an investment play for you

310
00:16:39,640 --> 00:16:42,680
Speaker 1: right now? Oh, I've been buying bank stocks. I bought

311
00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:45,720
Speaker 1: some cs which was clearly a mistake, but I'll keep

312
00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:48,280
Speaker 1: it and buy some more ubs. They are the last

313
00:16:48,320 --> 00:16:51,560
Speaker 1: man standing in Europe. What abouts of these regional banks?

314
00:16:52,680 --> 00:16:56,240
Speaker 1: I bought Western Alliance. That was one of my favorites.

315
00:16:56,280 --> 00:16:58,440
Speaker 1: I wrote about them two years ago. They went up

316
00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:01,680
Speaker 1: two hundred percent during the motgage boom thanks to J. Powell.

317
00:17:02,360 --> 00:17:05,480
Speaker 1: They had bought a portfolio company from Apollo called a Marahome,

318
00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:08,520
Speaker 1: which is one of the most efficient conventional lenders in

319
00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:12,080
Speaker 1: the country. Really good team, by the way, And I'm

320
00:17:12,080 --> 00:17:14,960
Speaker 1: looking at New York Community Bank. I've been following them

321
00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:17,000
Speaker 1: for years. They just bought some of my friends at

322
00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:20,919
Speaker 1: Flagstar Bank, which is a large mortgage player, second largest

323
00:17:20,920 --> 00:17:24,560
Speaker 1: warehouse lender in the country after Chase. So there's a

324
00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:27,080
Speaker 1: lot of deals out there, you know, but you know what,

325
00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:30,600
Speaker 1: it teams me and I have to wait for deals

326
00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:36,720
Speaker 1: to result. The policy mistakes. Which banks are you staying

327
00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:39,560
Speaker 1: away from? Don't want anything to do with? Well, look

328
00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:42,360
Speaker 1: in twenty I sold all my common and I went

329
00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:47,280
Speaker 1: and put my financial allocation into bank preferreds so my

330
00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:50,040
Speaker 1: feet wouldn't get wet, I would higher up to capital structure.

331
00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:53,880
Speaker 1: I'm starting to nibble on some of these common situations.

332
00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:56,280
Speaker 1: So because I love Western Alliance or one of the

333
00:17:56,280 --> 00:18:00,320
Speaker 1: great mortgage shops in the country, Wholesale Bank New York

334
00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:03,520
Speaker 1: Community Bank, I think is very interesting because they just

335
00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:07,160
Speaker 1: bought all those assets from Signature. When you buy assets

336
00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:11,800
Speaker 1: from the FDIC, they have no cost basis. Okay, yeah,

337
00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:14,600
Speaker 1: so why not I'm yum, So that's going to be

338
00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:17,200
Speaker 1: very creative for them. I believe Chris just got about

339
00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:22,480
Speaker 1: forty five seconds JP Morgan City, Goldman be of ay,

340
00:18:23,840 --> 00:18:27,560
Speaker 1: they're fine. Well, Goldman doesn't have to mark the market

341
00:18:27,560 --> 00:18:30,399
Speaker 1: problem because they're a broker dealer, but they have a

342
00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:33,680
Speaker 1: funding problem. As I've written for my subscribers, because they

343
00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:35,920
Speaker 1: have to go out and compete with Ally in American

344
00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:39,960
Speaker 1: Express and everybody else for broker deposits. They don't really

345
00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:43,240
Speaker 1: have a strong core deposit base. And I've always argued

346
00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:45,320
Speaker 1: that David and the boys should go buy a bank,

347
00:18:45,640 --> 00:18:49,680
Speaker 1: go buy key. They love commercial real estate, love commercial

348
00:18:49,720 --> 00:18:52,919
Speaker 1: real estate, you know. But the other guy, the other

349
00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:56,439
Speaker 1: big guys. Twenty seconds left, they're not worried about. The

350
00:18:56,520 --> 00:18:59,199
Speaker 1: US Bank is the strongest of the top five. You know.

351
00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:02,480
Speaker 1: They're the little money center, but very well run. I

352
00:19:02,560 --> 00:19:04,760
Speaker 1: don't I don't bother with the others except to bother

353
00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:09,320
Speaker 1: preferred Raincome listen, so appreciate it. You took me back,

354
00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:12,240
Speaker 1: and it was so good to reconnect. No, we're got

355
00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:14,640
Speaker 1: to do this to getting Carol. We can't wait another decade.

356
00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:17,360
Speaker 1: Deal deal, deal, not another crisis. All right, Chris, well

357
00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:19,800
Speaker 1: and be well. Have a great weekend. Chris is, of

358
00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:22,520
Speaker 1: course institutional risk analyst at Whale and Global Advisors, as

359
00:19:22,520 --> 00:19:24,760
Speaker 1: I said earlier, worked for the New York Fed, work

360
00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:27,720
Speaker 1: for Bear Stearns, worked in up on Capitol Hill. But

361
00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:31,560
Speaker 1: a great voice for us to check into on. Certainly

362
00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:33,639
Speaker 1: this Friday with a lot going on, this is Bloomberg

363
00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:37,679
Speaker 1: you're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

364
00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:41,080
Speaker 1: live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on

365
00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:44,400
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, the Ion Radio app, and the Bloomberg

366
00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:49,520
Speaker 1: Business App, or watch us Live on YouTube. I was

367
00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:53,000
Speaker 1: just bringing up a Bitcoin clothes today. Yeah, we're just

368
00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:56,600
Speaker 1: below twenty eight thousand, although we did see it pop

369
00:19:57,040 --> 00:19:59,120
Speaker 1: above that like it was I think early on Monday.

370
00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:01,840
Speaker 1: For the first time since June. We have also seen

371
00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:05,600
Speaker 1: jess I feel like the largest digital coin, Bitcoin and

372
00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:07,520
Speaker 1: some crypto stalks come back to life this week a

373
00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:09,800
Speaker 1: little bit. We definitely have because there was a particular

374
00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:11,720
Speaker 1: point when you were looking at the span over the

375
00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:14,200
Speaker 1: past couple of weeks, we're going to surge more than

376
00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:16,879
Speaker 1: thirty percent. So now the past couple of days seeing

377
00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:19,080
Speaker 1: it come back to reality, like you were talking about,

378
00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:22,520
Speaker 1: still below thirty thousand, now close to twenty eight thousand,

379
00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:25,080
Speaker 1: but still it was on a tear despite what was

380
00:20:25,119 --> 00:20:27,320
Speaker 1: going on a lot of these banks. The past feet

381
00:20:27,359 --> 00:20:29,479
Speaker 1: was kind of interesting, right with the volatility. All right,

382
00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:32,760
Speaker 1: So let's get to our weekly crypto segment. We reach

383
00:20:32,840 --> 00:20:37,040
Speaker 1: out to Thomas Kralow. He is Carlow. Excuse me, an investor,

384
00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:41,160
Speaker 1: influencer and trader, founder and CEO of Carlo Enterprises. He

385
00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:44,600
Speaker 1: joins us via zoom from Dubai. Thomas, good to have

386
00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:49,400
Speaker 1: you here on this Friday. Tell us what you make

387
00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:52,200
Speaker 1: of some of the trade this week when it comes

388
00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:55,159
Speaker 1: to cryptocurrencies and bitcoin in particular, and even some of

389
00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:59,439
Speaker 1: the equity plays. Yes, hello everyone, Thank you very much

390
00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:02,439
Speaker 1: for having me. Very happy to be here, and quite frankly,

391
00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:05,800
Speaker 1: this has been one of probably best weeks so far

392
00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:07,920
Speaker 1: in a very long time when it comes to bitcoin,

393
00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:12,240
Speaker 1: and that is because of you know, bitcoin following global liquidity,

394
00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:15,760
Speaker 1: and we were saying Japan injecting liquidity, so with China

395
00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:18,600
Speaker 1: and US was taking the liquidity out of the system.

396
00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:21,359
Speaker 1: But now in light of the collapse of the banking system,

397
00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:25,240
Speaker 1: we're actually seeing it come back. So those of us

398
00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:29,480
Speaker 1: who are actually into crypto, this is just a fantastic time.

399
00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:31,960
Speaker 1: So let's take a step back because not all of

400
00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:34,080
Speaker 1: our audience may be familiar with who you are, So

401
00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:35,840
Speaker 1: tell us about how you came to invest in the

402
00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:38,439
Speaker 1: crypto space and how long you've been doing it, and

403
00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:39,800
Speaker 1: talked to us a little bit about the trades that

404
00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:44,639
Speaker 1: have been of interest or productive for you specifically. Sure, Well,

405
00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:47,480
Speaker 1: I've been into crypto space for a couple of years now.

406
00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:51,679
Speaker 1: I have a about ten year background in retail trading,

407
00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:54,560
Speaker 1: but then recently I've transitioned intesset management as well and

408
00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:57,639
Speaker 1: founded my own hedge fund and a venture fund and

409
00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:00,680
Speaker 1: one of the best. I mean, venture fund is probably

410
00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:03,880
Speaker 1: not that relevant to the current market conditions, but when

411
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:08,640
Speaker 1: it comes to the recent place we're once we actually

412
00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:10,840
Speaker 1: figured out that the banks are collapsing and that people

413
00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:13,040
Speaker 1: are going to be losing faith just like in two

414
00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:15,879
Speaker 1: thousand and eight in the banking system, and just the

415
00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:19,000
Speaker 1: only difference that this time they're going to have an alternative,

416
00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:22,840
Speaker 1: which is bitcoin. And this has given us an incredible

417
00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:26,159
Speaker 1: opportunity to go all long on bitcoin. So and so

418
00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:28,720
Speaker 1: far it's played out really well. Actually are still longer,

419
00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:30,440
Speaker 1: and many would argue it's still early in the game.

420
00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:34,120
Speaker 1: We've had three banks collapse. You know, we're watching so

421
00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:36,760
Speaker 1: I think, and many that we've talked to say, it's

422
00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:40,600
Speaker 1: not like oh eight. I was curious, Thomas, how much

423
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:43,840
Speaker 1: money have you actually made in the crypto space, and

424
00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:47,439
Speaker 1: how specifically have you made that money in crypto what

425
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:51,800
Speaker 1: kind of corners of the marketing crypto. Well, in krypto space,

426
00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:54,760
Speaker 1: really there is different ways of making money. Certainly one

427
00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:58,040
Speaker 1: of the best, the biggest income that I've had was

428
00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:01,800
Speaker 1: by simply building a regular portfolio over the assets I

429
00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:04,720
Speaker 1: believed in back in two and nineteen and writing this

430
00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:08,359
Speaker 1: cyclical wave of crypto. And how much money did that

431
00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:13,280
Speaker 1: portfolio make? Well, in percentage terms, it was two thousand percent,

432
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:16,119
Speaker 1: but money wise, sadly at an entry with a million dollars,

433
00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:18,480
Speaker 1: so the profit was just a little north of a

434
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:20,880
Speaker 1: million dollars. So but for me it was still quite

435
00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:23,320
Speaker 1: substantial considering that I didn't expect this kind of a

436
00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 1: return and now was definitely in the early phases of bitcoins.

437
00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 1: So how has that evolved to these other coins where

438
00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:31,520
Speaker 1: you think of maybe some of these more riskier wines

439
00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:34,600
Speaker 1: like doge coin, but then also there's ethereum. But are

440
00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:38,280
Speaker 1: those coins that you're treating as well for sure? Yeah,

441
00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:40,640
Speaker 1: this is something that you know. As part of my

442
00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:44,760
Speaker 1: hedge fund strategy, our main objective is to reduce the risks,

443
00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:48,080
Speaker 1: which is very strange to say about crypto, and also

444
00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:52,040
Speaker 1: to outperform bitcoin returns. So certainly there are when it

445
00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:54,520
Speaker 1: used to be all about you know, crap coins so

446
00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:56,680
Speaker 1: to speak right now. Actually, there are quite a few

447
00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:02,680
Speaker 1: projects older that offer quite incredible utility and purpose behind them,

448
00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:05,160
Speaker 1: Like Ethereum. You don't have to go forward to find

449
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:09,360
Speaker 1: one that actually has it's as a lot of people say,

450
00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:12,639
Speaker 1: it's ultrasound money, and it's by far more technologically advanced

451
00:24:12,640 --> 00:24:16,040
Speaker 1: than bitcoin. But every project, I would say, as it's

452
00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:19,160
Speaker 1: pros and cons. It's all just depends on what kind

453
00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:22,800
Speaker 1: of thing you enjoy most. I suppose last year, when

454
00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:26,760
Speaker 1: cryptocurrencies came under a ton of pressure, how much money

455
00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:31,800
Speaker 1: did you lose? Well, quite frankly, since I'm not just

456
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:35,200
Speaker 1: an investor, I am also a traitor. So for one,

457
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:37,080
Speaker 1: I know how to hedge my risk and how to

458
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:39,680
Speaker 1: actually play the market to the downside. That's for one.

459
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:43,439
Speaker 1: And number two, my portfolio that I've put together in

460
00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:46,439
Speaker 1: two and nineteen, I sold it about a couple of

461
00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:50,200
Speaker 1: weeks before the Chinese fought, before China actually buying band mining,

462
00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:53,040
Speaker 1: which took bitcoin down to thirty thousand from sixty thousand.

463
00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:56,520
Speaker 1: So for I didn't really lose that much. I'd say

464
00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:59,480
Speaker 1: I started buying back into bitcoin when it was going

465
00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:02,399
Speaker 1: back down forty k thirty K, so I started dcaing,

466
00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 1: So it's not really about losing money. It's more off

467
00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 1: I feel like it is though, is it you don't

468
00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:12,040
Speaker 1: want to lose money? Yeah, it's it's very difficult to

469
00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:14,200
Speaker 1: time the bottom. Who is trying to time the bottom

470
00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:16,879
Speaker 1: usually doesn't really enter at all. So I guess it

471
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:19,560
Speaker 1: look like to your point, what's the time horizon you're

472
00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:22,240
Speaker 1: looking at here? Right? Like? Are we talking a few

473
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:24,600
Speaker 1: five years, ten years, a couple? Like? What is the

474
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:27,240
Speaker 1: trade for you? Because when you think about portfolio managers,

475
00:25:27,240 --> 00:25:29,480
Speaker 1: they obviously have a particular time horizon. And what's the

476
00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:34,199
Speaker 1: top right right? Is there another near term top? Yeah?

477
00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:36,280
Speaker 1: For sure, yes. So when it comes to our for

478
00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:38,800
Speaker 1: Cralo Capital as an example, or time horizon is a

479
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:42,520
Speaker 1: minimum of three years. So everything else is just market

480
00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:45,440
Speaker 1: frequencies that I certainly enjoy as a retail trader for

481
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:48,879
Speaker 1: my personal interest and sports interests so to speak. But

482
00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:51,240
Speaker 1: for our hedge fund, we certainly have We don't use

483
00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:53,680
Speaker 1: any leverage, and we just DCA into the s as

484
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:55,600
Speaker 1: we believe in. So usually it's a three year time

485
00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 1: horizon for sure. Well, so in the last couple of weeks,

486
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:04,879
Speaker 1: how have you been trading the crypto space for our fund,

487
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:07,560
Speaker 1: not very because the last time we actually bought into

488
00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:09,960
Speaker 1: bitcoin was at seventeen thousand dollars. That was the last

489
00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:12,560
Speaker 1: point when we were actually buying into it. For now,

490
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:14,520
Speaker 1: I'm holding my horses, so to speak. I want to

491
00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 1: see as to how the whole situation with the banks

492
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:20,520
Speaker 1: is going to play out and subsequently also regulation. So

493
00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:22,800
Speaker 1: for now we are happy with our positions. But when

494
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:25,639
Speaker 1: it comes to my personal retail trading, then I certainly

495
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:28,240
Speaker 1: am enjoying my long trade, but I'm not looking forward

496
00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:30,960
Speaker 1: to flipping it short just as off yet despite the

497
00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:34,199
Speaker 1: actual finance suspending withdrolls right now, which is still a

498
00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:36,439
Speaker 1: big fear. But for now, I'm still long for my

499
00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:39,679
Speaker 1: personal retail trading side of things. What specific level for

500
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 1: bitcoin are you watching for a threshold to see when

501
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:47,720
Speaker 1: it's reached its near term inflection point versus stocks? Yeah,

502
00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:51,040
Speaker 1: I think that's the most important point. Well, we have

503
00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:54,960
Speaker 1: to consider also all the regular indicators which actually point

504
00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:58,040
Speaker 1: to the fact that bitcoin is probably has decoupled from

505
00:26:58,119 --> 00:27:01,440
Speaker 1: SMP five hundred and NASTAC and any high risk as

506
00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:04,080
Speaker 1: set all there, and is outperforming those assets for obvious

507
00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:07,080
Speaker 1: reasons in gause of the banking collapse and stuff. But

508
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:09,840
Speaker 1: I think that the most important point in the price

509
00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:12,480
Speaker 1: for bitcoin for us to actually, you know, kind of

510
00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:15,920
Speaker 1: start celebrating is thirty thousand dollars and we are fighting

511
00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:18,760
Speaker 1: fiercely for it right now. We're well close to it.

512
00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:21,720
Speaker 1: So I say, once we clear thirty k with large

513
00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:24,800
Speaker 1: amount of volume, that would be something to consider as

514
00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:29,200
Speaker 1: true reversal my opinion. So we have seen bitcoin outperform

515
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:32,280
Speaker 1: not just stocks, but also when you're looking at the

516
00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:36,280
Speaker 1: commodity space, what specific risks are you looking at to

517
00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:38,919
Speaker 1: see if it could up in that particular trade in

518
00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 1: the near term, right So I would say that there

519
00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:47,080
Speaker 1: are a few systemic risks when it comes to bitcoin,

520
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:50,479
Speaker 1: a certainly with the current just the narrative itself. There

521
00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:54,200
Speaker 1: was also the narrative risk, which actually has been brought

522
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:56,720
Speaker 1: down to close to zero right now because of the

523
00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:59,720
Speaker 1: again fall of the banks. But one of the biggest

524
00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:03,960
Speaker 1: risk scrollingly as we stand is number one regulatory So

525
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:07,800
Speaker 1: that could translate into for example, band of binance and

526
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:11,160
Speaker 1: subsequent potential crash of binance, which will just be acuciy

527
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:14,399
Speaker 1: stomach risk. But besides this, the most biggest one I

528
00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:18,600
Speaker 1: think is tether. So if Tether the issue or of

529
00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:22,679
Speaker 1: you is DT were to be receiving a well's notice

530
00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:25,920
Speaker 1: and subsequently cease to exist at some point, this could

531
00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:29,879
Speaker 1: definitely set us back five or even ten years, something

532
00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:32,160
Speaker 1: as crazy as that. So these are two biggest things.

533
00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 1: All right? Can I leave it there? Hey, Thomas, thank you, Tamas.

534
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:39,240
Speaker 1: Thomas Carlo, He's chief executive officer of Carlo Enterprises. Joining

535
00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:43,080
Speaker 1: us via zoom from Dubai. You're listening to the Bloomberg

536
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:47,000
Speaker 1: Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from three

537
00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:50,680
Speaker 1: to six Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Business app,

538
00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 1: and YouTube. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa

539
00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 1: from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play

540
00:28:57,760 --> 00:29:06,920
Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven thirty a journal. Yeah but you let me drive?

541
00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:11,480
Speaker 1: Oh no, no, no no, no home honey, please, I'll do

542
00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:17,680
Speaker 1: the riding gravels. I want to drive. It's good question.

543
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:24,920
Speaker 1: This is the drive to the globe. Concimmulate thing. Well,

544
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:28,720
Speaker 1: Brier up, shove it on on Bloomberg Radio. All right, everybody,

545
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:30,880
Speaker 1: Just about seventeen and a half minutes left in today's

546
00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:33,640
Speaker 1: trading session. Kal Masser along with Bloomberg's Jess Met and

547
00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:36,240
Speaker 1: we are live in our Bloomberg Interactor Broker studio, streaming

548
00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:39,479
Speaker 1: on YouTube and Bloomberg originals and stocks holding onto their

549
00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:42,440
Speaker 1: gains of the session. It's not gangbusters, but mind you, everybody,

550
00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:46,200
Speaker 1: we are well off our loads of the session. And Jess,

551
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:48,600
Speaker 1: we've got continuing to see that to year note well

552
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:51,600
Speaker 1: below four percent, right, and that has again been the

553
00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 1: key indicator. And clearly also when we're talking about under

554
00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:57,040
Speaker 1: the hood for the SMP five hundred, the search for

555
00:29:57,120 --> 00:29:59,560
Speaker 1: income continues again today when you're looking at the leaders,

556
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:01,920
Speaker 1: you alies in real estate once again at the top,

557
00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:04,280
Speaker 1: both of those sectors up more than two percent in

558
00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:06,600
Speaker 1: the SP five at telling trade. All right, so let's

559
00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:08,200
Speaker 1: get to it and let's get to our drive to

560
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:11,440
Speaker 1: the closed. Guest Dantadoria is back with us Cocio of

561
00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:15,880
Speaker 1: the Independent investment advisor investnet PMC, joining u s VA

562
00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:18,880
Speaker 1: Zoom from Pennsylvania. Dana, nice to have you back with

563
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:22,560
Speaker 1: justin myself. How do you see the trade right now?

564
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:27,800
Speaker 1: Thanks for having me. Yeah, it's really interesting to me.

565
00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:31,000
Speaker 1: You know, what's the sort of the dichotomy right now

566
00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:33,520
Speaker 1: going on in markets, the fact that we're seeing such

567
00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 1: resilience and at the same time, you know, banks are

568
00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 1: really under a lot of pressure. Every new day brings

569
00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:42,600
Speaker 1: another bank to kind of get the focus and be

570
00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:44,920
Speaker 1: looked at. And you know, on the one hand, you

571
00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:50,640
Speaker 1: could say, well, regulators are successfully you know, calming markets

572
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:55,080
Speaker 1: at at a higher level. I think it's hard to

573
00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:57,440
Speaker 1: it's hard to kind of listen to comments that, hey,

574
00:30:57,480 --> 00:31:01,400
Speaker 1: the banking sector is resilient, all will be well, um,

575
00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:04,120
Speaker 1: when you're talking about a business that kind of relies

576
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:08,320
Speaker 1: on confidence, right, and you know it just even even

577
00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 1: banks that don't have the troubles that in general were

578
00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:15,000
Speaker 1: brought on by the rate increases, um, you know, are

579
00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:18,640
Speaker 1: going to get looked at sequentially. I think. So interesting

580
00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:21,680
Speaker 1: dichotomy and markets, for sure, Dana. What I'm really curious

581
00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:24,240
Speaker 1: about is whether or not most of the pain has

582
00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 1: already been priced in when we're looking at US equities

583
00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:31,000
Speaker 1: holding up last week as well as this week. Yeah,

584
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:33,360
Speaker 1: you know, it's it's a great question. And obviously the

585
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:35,880
Speaker 1: market is or it would appear anyway that the market

586
00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:40,400
Speaker 1: is expecting, given given fixed income rates, expecting that the

587
00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:43,880
Speaker 1: FED will have to pivot and therefore, um, you know,

588
00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:46,640
Speaker 1: the markets will get their their FED put put back

589
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:51,440
Speaker 1: into place. Um. You know, it's hard to to square

590
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:54,560
Speaker 1: that with the fact that you have more jobless claims down.

591
00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:58,360
Speaker 1: I mean, certainly the unemployment rate not ticking up um

592
00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:01,280
Speaker 1: and we're not seeing you know, and these things take

593
00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 1: it back with a lag. So it's not to say

594
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:07,000
Speaker 1: that we won't, but we're not seeing yet the kind

595
00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:11,040
Speaker 1: of movement in these numbers that would cause the FED

596
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:13,760
Speaker 1: to say, hey, mission accomplished, we need to stop. So

597
00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:17,640
Speaker 1: my thought is that we may well not have another

598
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:21,640
Speaker 1: rate increase, particularly as we see how this banking crisis unfolds.

599
00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:25,640
Speaker 1: But a pivot just you know, seems hard to expect

600
00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:28,479
Speaker 1: where we stand today. We just had Chris Whalen, on

601
00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:32,160
Speaker 1: institutional risk analyst over at Whale and Global Advisors. He's

602
00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:36,800
Speaker 1: somebody who understands the banking sector, the financial sector. He

603
00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 1: we talked to him a lot during the O eight

604
00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:43,000
Speaker 1: financial crisis. He's an investor looks for some opportunities within banking.

605
00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:45,160
Speaker 1: What's interesting is he said the FED needs to cut

606
00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:47,280
Speaker 1: rates right now, and he also said it's time for

607
00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 1: the FED to just accept that inflation is going to

608
00:32:49,800 --> 00:32:52,000
Speaker 1: run hot. It's just the way it is, and we'll

609
00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:56,040
Speaker 1: be okay. Do you agree in terms of the trade

610
00:32:56,120 --> 00:33:00,600
Speaker 1: because right now, yeah, you know, take at the banking

611
00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 1: sector and we were starting to I feel like, do okay,

612
00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:07,000
Speaker 1: even though you know inflation still ran hot. How do

613
00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:11,440
Speaker 1: you see that. I see a pause as being in order.

614
00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:15,560
Speaker 1: I was on with your colleagues a few days ago

615
00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:18,600
Speaker 1: before the pen made its decision. I expected the twenty five.

616
00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:20,400
Speaker 1: Sure enough, we got it. I think everybody kind of

617
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:23,480
Speaker 1: thought we're probably going to get it. I would say

618
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:25,560
Speaker 1: a pause might not have been the worst thing even

619
00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:29,560
Speaker 1: before then. You know, the problem is that this type

620
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:32,960
Speaker 1: of policy, this monetary policy, it affects with a lag

621
00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:37,200
Speaker 1: number one, number two, You're you're only impacting or your

622
00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:41,240
Speaker 1: most strongly impacting interest rates sensitive parts of the economy.

623
00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:45,200
Speaker 1: So you're trying to defeat inflation with you know, this

624
00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:48,360
Speaker 1: one sort of it's a hammer kind of situation, and

625
00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:52,880
Speaker 1: everything therefore has to become the nail. So I think

626
00:33:52,920 --> 00:33:56,560
Speaker 1: a pause would absolutely be in order. I know the

627
00:33:56,680 --> 00:34:00,480
Speaker 1: Fed is concerned about stopping bill policy, absolutely certain about

628
00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:03,480
Speaker 1: inflation running too hot. We have to consider that inflation

629
00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:05,719
Speaker 1: may not come out around two percent long term at

630
00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:08,040
Speaker 1: least not for the for the near term. Now, the

631
00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:10,360
Speaker 1: caveat to that is if we're running at you know,

632
00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:13,399
Speaker 1: year over year inflation higher than three percent, four percent, etc.

633
00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:16,680
Speaker 1: Of course we you know, we have to keep tackling that.

634
00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:19,480
Speaker 1: But sort of waiting for the effects of what's already

635
00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:23,000
Speaker 1: been done before we continue to raise seems like a

636
00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:26,600
Speaker 1: good policy option for me. So Dina has this trade

637
00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:30,160
Speaker 1: specifically on Wall Street shifted from, as we know, last

638
00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:35,719
Speaker 1: year's trade of inflation to now the recession trade. So

639
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:38,759
Speaker 1: we had been there for sure. I think, you know,

640
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:42,080
Speaker 1: there was some indications for a long time of peak inflation,

641
00:34:42,760 --> 00:34:46,640
Speaker 1: and absolutely the market turned its focus to Okay, you know,

642
00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:49,759
Speaker 1: we're heading now towards the likelihood of recession, if not

643
00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:53,120
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty three, in twenty twenty four. Obviously markets

644
00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:56,359
Speaker 1: are leading indicators. You know, the impact has not yet

645
00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:59,799
Speaker 1: hit the job market. That usually takes place though significantly

646
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:03,279
Speaker 1: after a tightening cycle begins. So the expectation is that

647
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:05,759
Speaker 1: we are going to feel the pain of this um

648
00:35:06,000 --> 00:35:10,400
Speaker 1: you know. Interestingly, again, the interest rate sensitive sectors like banks, financials,

649
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:13,759
Speaker 1: you're seeing it happen pretty quick, and uh, you know not,

650
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 1: I guess not surprising in hindsight, right, given such abrupt

651
00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:21,799
Speaker 1: and strong increases over time or over the course of

652
00:35:21,800 --> 00:35:26,520
Speaker 1: a year. But yes, I think the trade has to

653
00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:30,080
Speaker 1: shift to recession and we're absolutely looking at that going forward.

654
00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:32,520
Speaker 1: All right, So when do markets repriced for that recession?

655
00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:36,200
Speaker 1: And then what's what's your what's your what's your strategy

656
00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:38,359
Speaker 1: ahead of that or at this point? And we've got

657
00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:42,160
Speaker 1: about a minute to go, so quickly, um, you know,

658
00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 1: margins coming in for companies right earning seasons that increasingly

659
00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:50,320
Speaker 1: demonstrate the fragility you're seeing, for example, tech margins coming

660
00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:53,920
Speaker 1: in and yet tech is going strong. My quick in

661
00:35:54,000 --> 00:35:56,759
Speaker 1: the one minute is, um, I don't view tech as

662
00:35:56,800 --> 00:35:59,720
Speaker 1: being the defensive sector that we've all converted it to. Mentally,

663
00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:03,279
Speaker 1: traditional defensive sectors are a better place. You know, an

664
00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:08,160
Speaker 1: environment like this, consumer staples a countercyclical, higher dividends, lower beta,

665
00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:13,520
Speaker 1: healthcare you know, largely counter cyclical and more attractively priced

666
00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:17,000
Speaker 1: standard you know, sort of fundamental quality indicators and even

667
00:36:17,040 --> 00:36:20,880
Speaker 1: low volatility indicators more than tech. Would you might play?

668
00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:23,880
Speaker 1: All right, really appreciate it, Dana, have a good weekend.

669
00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:27,719
Speaker 1: Dana di Oria, she's co chief investment officer over at Investment,

670
00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:31,920
Speaker 1: joining USBA Zoom from Pennsylvania. This is the Bloomberg Business

671
00:36:32,000 --> 00:36:36,040
Speaker 1: Week podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you

672
00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:40,120
Speaker 1: get your podcast. Listen live weekday afternoons from three to

673
00:36:40,160 --> 00:36:44,279
Speaker 1: six easttarning, on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app tune In,

674
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:46,960
Speaker 1: and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us

675
00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:50,600
Speaker 1: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg

676
00:36:50,640 --> 00:36:57,000
Speaker 1: German lovem