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Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York, Bloomberg eleventh to Washington, BC,

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Speaker 1: Bloomber to Boston, Bloomberg twelve one to San Francisco, Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Nize to the Country, Serious Exam Channel one ninety and

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Speaker 1: around the globe the Bloomberg Radio plus Apen Bloomberg dot com.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance and good morning. I'm Karen Moscow

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Speaker 1: along with Tom Keene and Michael McKey and the opening

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Speaker 1: ballast brought to you by se I Imagine when asset

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Speaker 1: management servicing is unconstrained by infrastructure. See how SCI's global

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Speaker 1: operating platform could be your catalyst for business expansion at

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Speaker 1: se i C dot com slash imagine Stocks lower at

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Speaker 1: the open. The S and P five hundred down a

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Speaker 1: quarter percent or four points to twenty seventeen. Downtown's industrial

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Speaker 1: average down about two tenths per cent or twenty eight

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Speaker 1: points to seventeen thousand, one hundred eighty five. The nastacts

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Speaker 1: down three tenths per cent or fourteen points to forty

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Speaker 1: seven thirty four. Can your treasury up six thirty seconds?

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Speaker 1: The yield one point nine six percent yield on the

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Speaker 1: two year point nine no I'm ex scrude oil down

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Speaker 1: two point nine percent, or a dollar twelve to thirty

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Speaker 1: seven thirty nine. A barrel comes gold is little change

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Speaker 1: down sixty cents to twelve fifty eight ninety announced the

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Speaker 1: euro a dollar eleven o nine, the en one thirteen

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Speaker 1: point six eight. Tom and Mike Karen, thanks so much.

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Speaker 1: Appreciated Jen vail with us with Nikosset management. Of course,

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Speaker 1: the story career in Japanese money management and in strategy

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Speaker 1: as well. I've been dying to ask you this question

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Speaker 1: because you're living it with Japan. We used to work

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Speaker 1: in a nominal space inflation plus real g d P,

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Speaker 1: and then inflation became so big and so distorted. Anybody

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Speaker 1: shifted from nominal to real analysis. How do you respond

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Speaker 1: to the idea, since there's no inflation or little inflation,

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Speaker 1: we should shift back to nominal animal spirit inflation plus

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Speaker 1: real GDP analysis, should we? Well, if you follow the

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Speaker 1: Japanese example, you should look at probably both. I mean,

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Speaker 1: for instance, nominal GDP was running about zero for the

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Speaker 1: last twenty years, but real gp was positive, and so

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Speaker 1: both are important because nominal was telling you that there

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Speaker 1: was a real problem, but one percent real was telling

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Speaker 1: you that the economy is growing at basically its potential

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Speaker 1: growth rate, So you have to look at both, I

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Speaker 1: think and you're right that have to study it very deeply.

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Speaker 1: Did we ever figure out who leaked the decision? The

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Speaker 1: Bank of Japan decision last time? And you know the

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Speaker 1: report came out in Nika that they had discussed negative

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Speaker 1: interesting them in the markets moved significantly before the bank

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Speaker 1: announced did its plan. I have no idea about that,

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Speaker 1: whether whether it's what how that happens. To be honest,

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Speaker 1: does it be interesting to see if if that happens again? Uh?

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Speaker 1: It may be a case if they do nothing as

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Speaker 1: the consensus of what they say, which is what we've

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Speaker 1: gotten into with the Fed these days. We talked about

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Speaker 1: what they might do, but what might coronas say, um,

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Speaker 1: particularly if they don't make any policy change, How does

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Speaker 1: he move the market? By m jaw owning, it's tough

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Speaker 1: for him because he hasn't been uh forthright, I guess

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Speaker 1: you could say in the way that he has led

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Speaker 1: the markets or has uh given guidance, and so I

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Speaker 1: think they're looking for action, not words, uh in terms

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Speaker 1: of potential moves. But he could say he could indicate

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Speaker 1: something like as I was discussing before that equity purchases

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Speaker 1: for monetary policy reasons, for q q E reasons is

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Speaker 1: on the table. He could say something like that and

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Speaker 1: that would actually impact I would say that the stock

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Speaker 1: market more than anything, but perhaps sentiment in general. One

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Speaker 1: of the great things, folks, of the Bloomberg and the

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Speaker 1: search engine we have is I can get something in

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Speaker 1: my brain and I can find a chart that I've

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Speaker 1: never ever once looked at. I just did that. I

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Speaker 1: just put it out on Bloomberg Radio Plus. Japanese employment.

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Speaker 1: Total employment from the pre boom sixties is a straight

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Speaker 1: line up. They add a twenty million to sixty whatever

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Speaker 1: that is million units, and basically it's flatline John Vale

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Speaker 1: since almost to March. It's flat line for twenty four

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Speaker 1: years and even declined. Is it flatline because of demographics

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Speaker 1: or is flatline because of no economic growth? I mean

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Speaker 1: the I know the answer is both. But if I

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Speaker 1: extrapolate out the previous employment trend, which I assume includes

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Speaker 1: a lot of distortions for women, I'm just eyeball in this, folks.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to add on conservatively sixteen million bodies is

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Speaker 1: what should have been which never occurred because jobs of

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Speaker 1: flat warning for twenty four years. Well, yes, I'd have

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Speaker 1: to put it down mostly to the demographics. And it's

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Speaker 1: true that the only reason why uh that employed number

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Speaker 1: doesn't follow more is because more women have entered the

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Speaker 1: labor force. I mean, Japan to large degree was single

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Speaker 1: family earning country for quite a while and that shifted now.

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Speaker 1: So you're saying the number the chart would be worse. Yes,

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Speaker 1: if the how many years have we seen the female

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Speaker 1: trend and employee it's actually only been about It's always

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Speaker 1: been fairly high um in certain age groups in Japan.

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Speaker 1: It's just in the child barry child rearing UHUM ages

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Speaker 1: for women who was always remarkably low in Japan. They

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Speaker 1: did stay at home and uh read their children. But

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Speaker 1: now that age group is starting to push up, and

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Speaker 1: because the ABBE and his administration have been trying very

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Speaker 1: hard to push this further, to get more women of

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Speaker 1: that age group into the labor forced by building new

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Speaker 1: kindergartens and having more flexible work hours, that sort of thing.

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Speaker 1: So I guess you could give him credit for keeping

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Speaker 1: thin number of jobs staable in Japan, but you've got

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Speaker 1: to see it falling um at some point even further

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Speaker 1: because the unless they change on immigration, which I don't

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Speaker 1: think they'll do, Um, it's going to be it's going

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Speaker 1: to be a downward path. It just has to be.

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Speaker 1: I'm putting this chart out, Mike. It's a fancy regression

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Speaker 1: chart log of employment. Just it's just breath sticking to

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Speaker 1: see what John would be the possibility that Corona does

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Speaker 1: a drugg and throws the kitchen sink at something. Um

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Speaker 1: it's uh. I think it's small that he would do

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Speaker 1: anything on the interest right front because it has, as

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Speaker 1: you mentioned, just caused so much trouble, and it's it's

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Speaker 1: not exactly possible to strip out what was caused and

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Speaker 1: effect there. I mean, the b o J went to

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Speaker 1: negative rates, it's a surprise the market. It pushed bank

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Speaker 1: shares prices down, pushed the stock market down in general

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Speaker 1: because they thought that, you know, the v o J

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Speaker 1: was panicking. But in the end, um, I think they

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Speaker 1: got what they wanted with lower interest rates, uh on

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Speaker 1: in the in the bond market. So it's not And

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Speaker 1: then of course the fact that the global stock markets

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Speaker 1: went down in early February didn't help. For instance, the

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Speaker 1: end I mean the end that's stronger again for many reasons,

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Speaker 1: not just because they were uh negative reaction to the

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Speaker 1: b o J policy. But yes, I don't think he'll

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Speaker 1: throw the kitchen sink at it at this time. And

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Speaker 1: we've got oil prices moving up again, We've got we've

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Speaker 1: got some growth in the dates, uh picking up again,

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Speaker 1: and uh so I doubt that he feels he has

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Speaker 1: to do that right now. Okay, John l thank you

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Speaker 1: so much as you look at bo J. Mike help

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Speaker 1: me here. It's tomorrow, which means it's tonight. Like what

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Speaker 1: well last time it comes out. I think it's roughly

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Speaker 1: ten o'clock our time somewhere shortly tonight in New York.

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Speaker 1: So you and I here ten hours of sleeping Tokyo,

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Speaker 1: you and I hear three hours of three. God, I'd

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Speaker 1: like to be four or five. Well, there it is.

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Speaker 1: John Vale will be one and get the news for us. Absolutely,

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Speaker 1: but seriously, folks, with our work on economics, the Bank

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Speaker 1: of Japan and the Bank of England and inside it

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Speaker 1: fellow reserve coverage. On Wednesday, I am thrilled to announced

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Speaker 1: the scarlet food after weeks of negotiation, when s Foo

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Speaker 1: will join me and Michael McKee for our FED coverage. Mike,

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Speaker 1: she played so hard to get it was an outrage.

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Speaker 1: It's it was almost like China sign a quarter act

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Speaker 1: for the Denver bronckt it was. It was a lot

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Speaker 1: like Scarlett. Through Michael McKee and Tom King, we will

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Speaker 1: have for you FED coverage on Wednesday on Bloomberg Radio

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Speaker 1: and Bloomberg Television. The down negative thirty VIC seventeen point

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Speaker 1: zero one time Now to check in with Michael bar

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Speaker 1: at the latest world of national headlines. Michael, Big, Tom,

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Speaker 1: thank you very much. Republican and Democratic presidential candidates, they're

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Speaker 1: getting ready for another big Tuesday. Primaries take place in

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Speaker 1: five states Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, and Florida. Ohio

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Speaker 1: is a winner take all contest. Within a quarter of

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Speaker 1: the one thousand, two hundred thirty seven delegates needed for

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Speaker 1: the Republican nomination are up for grabs in the five states.

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Speaker 1: Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders both agree

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Speaker 1: that Donald Trump needs to tone down the rhetoric. Clinton,

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Speaker 1: during a town hall event on CNN, also made a

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Speaker 1: push to use clean renewable energy to bring economic opportunity

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Speaker 1: back to Old Country. Now we've got to move away

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Speaker 1: from coal and all the other fossil fuels, but I

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Speaker 1: don't want to move away from the people who did

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Speaker 1: the best they could to produce the energy that we

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Speaker 1: relied on. Turkey state run news agency says police detained

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Speaker 1: dozens of suspected militants today, just hours after a suicide

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Speaker 1: car bombing attack and Anchora. Senior government officials says authorities

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Speaker 1: believe Sunday's attack that killed thirty seven people was carried

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Speaker 1: out by two bombers. Meanwhile, Turkish warplanes carried out air

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Speaker 1: strikes against Kurdish militants in northern Iraq. Global News twenty

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Speaker 1: four hours a day, powered by our twenty four hundred

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Speaker 1: journalists and more than one hundred fifty news bureaus from

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Speaker 1: around the world. I'm Michael Barr. Night to Michael. Thanks

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Speaker 1: so much that two year healed point nine six tenure

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Speaker 1: one point nine very close to two. Michael McKee and

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Speaker 1: Tom Keen Wednesday Fed Day. This is Bloomberg's siance Bloomberg

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