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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go throwing out job.

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Speaker 3: We're sitting up to cats too.

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Speaker 2: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 2: go to win.

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Speaker 3: God, that's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 3: I like to make money. All right, this is the

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Speaker 3: ultimate Kabaki want to pull.

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Speaker 4: And we are underway and welcome to another edition of

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Speaker 4: the Action Network Podcast. Week sixteen NFL Betting Edition. I

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Speaker 4: am Chris Raybond of the Action Network will be joined

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Speaker 4: shortly by Stucky to break down all of the betting

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Speaker 4: action for this week. We will start this week by

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Speaker 4: jumping right into our Sunday sixth pack, which is where

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Speaker 4: we each draft our top three spread bats of the week.

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Speaker 4: That will include Saturday games, but there is no Thursday

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Speaker 4: night game.

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Speaker 2: However, there is.

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Speaker 4: A Monday night football game this week that we will

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Speaker 4: cover at the end of the show because we want

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Speaker 4: to leave stuck in Colin Wilson to just focus on

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Speaker 4: college for the bowl games on the podcasts later in

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Speaker 4: the weekend next week, so that's how we're going to

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Speaker 4: do it.

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Speaker 2: We'll also do our Favorite Total, which.

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Speaker 4: Also includes a Saturday game spoiler alert, and we will

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Speaker 4: do our money line underdog parlay. We'll do our top

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Speaker 4: teaser pick of the week, and if you're still involved

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Speaker 4: in Survivor, you're still alive in Survivor, good.

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Speaker 3: Good stuff.

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Speaker 4: We'll quickly run through the options for this week before

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Speaker 4: we get started. Just want to remind you, guys, download

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Speaker 4: the Free Action Network app to get live scores in game,

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Speaker 4: win probabilities, and track every bet that you make, as

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Speaker 4: well as follow experts like Stucky and myself.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's get right into the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 2: Thirsty for action.

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Speaker 3: Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 2: Stuck, what up?

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Speaker 3: You're up?

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Speaker 2: Two? You're up to in our liddle game. Separating again.

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Speaker 4: But it wasn't the greatest week for me though my

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Speaker 4: two point Craig hit which saved me the Falcons prime

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Speaker 4: wet down spot of course for san Frin.

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Speaker 3: How is your do not run the ball? Kyle Shanahan,

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Speaker 3: I'm still yelling about that flat or not you run

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Speaker 3: the ball?

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Speaker 2: There?

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Speaker 3: I mean to kick it away with your five starters

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Speaker 3: out on defense when your identity is running it Kyle Shanahan, God,

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Speaker 3: I mean if he could have lost Coach the Year. There,

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Speaker 3: he could have lost a bye, could have lost home field,

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Speaker 3: all on that one decision.

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Speaker 2: It's tough.

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Speaker 4: I don't know if I would even consider him the

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Speaker 4: favor Do you know if he's the favorite for Coach

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Speaker 4: of the Year by ye.

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Speaker 3: I mean it could be. There's a lot of other

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Speaker 3: great Ken Tomlin, Harball. I mean, there's just McDermott and Buffalo.

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Speaker 3: I'm just saying like he was in the running and

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Speaker 3: now I don't think he's got a shot. You know,

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Speaker 3: if they went like fourteen and two and had the

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Speaker 3: best record in the NFL. But I mean, it could

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Speaker 3: cost them everything. I mean, because you go from a

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Speaker 3: one to five seed in the NFC. It's that's a

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Speaker 3: huge drop and how deep the conference is. But anyway,

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Speaker 3: if overall it was I had to lose a losing

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Speaker 3: weekend this this year in the NFL, I didn't like

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Speaker 3: the card going in. The Cowboys did come through for me.

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Speaker 3: By the way, the week Week sixteen, which we're heading into,

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Speaker 3: is one of the best underdog weeks in the NFL. Yes,

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Speaker 3: And if you look back since two thousand and three,

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Speaker 3: teams that are under five hundred as an underdog are

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Speaker 3: eighty nine, sixty nine and five against a spreads fifty

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Speaker 3: six point three percent. It's about an over a nine

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Speaker 3: percent ROI. And what happens now and next week. I'll

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Speaker 3: get into this a lot. The teams that have to

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Speaker 3: win win or you're done. Playing a team that is

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Speaker 3: dead and out of the playoffs are horrible against the

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Speaker 3: spread because obviously this is you know, the most public

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Speaker 3: market in the world. Who wants to bet, you know,

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Speaker 3: the team the Jaguars next week against a team that

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Speaker 3: has to win to get in, so you're getting a

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Speaker 3: lot of value. The other team could play loose. We're

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Speaker 3: gonna into a lot of that for Week seventeen, but

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Speaker 3: a lot of times in Week sixteen you have some

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Speaker 3: dogs with value because of the perception that the team

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Speaker 3: is dead. But these are still guys playing for their job.

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Speaker 3: It's still the NFL. So just keep in mind that

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Speaker 3: it is a good dog weekend.

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Speaker 4: And this extends to week fifteen as well. But fifteen

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Speaker 4: and sixteen, the best spot is as a road underdog,

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Speaker 4: and it's in a one possession spread that's a field

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Speaker 4: goal or more so, three to eight points. Has been

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Speaker 4: really that sweet spot. Ninety seven sixty one and four

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Speaker 4: sixty one percent. When a team is a home underdog,

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Speaker 4: that usually the mark of a really bad team. Those

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Speaker 4: teams have not covered nearly as much. It's actually profitable

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Speaker 4: about the favorite in those spots. But especially when you

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Speaker 4: have teams on the road, the public I think.

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Speaker 2: Kind of looks at it as all. As teams on

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Speaker 2: the road, the spread really kind of inflates.

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Speaker 4: So as far as the six fat goes first pick.

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Speaker 4: Interestingly enough, I think I'm going I am going against

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Speaker 4: the under I'm going.

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Speaker 2: Against a lot of rules.

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Speaker 4: Did to astthlete and it didn't pay off, of course

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Speaker 4: with the oh, I mean.

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Speaker 3: I've been waiting to talk to you about it. Your

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Speaker 3: two off frand picks the Broncos and then Brown's Cardinals.

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Speaker 2: Man, you got to keep an open minds. You gotta

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Speaker 2: get it. It was.

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Speaker 3: Versus probably growing thing.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I was not I was not throwed, not throwed

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Speaker 2: at all. But this week I'm going with kind of

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Speaker 2: an off brand pick.

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Speaker 4: But I feel really confident in it just because of

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Speaker 4: what I've seen out of this team.

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Speaker 2: And that's the Baltimore Ravens.

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Speaker 4: They're minus ten, they're on the road in Cleveland, actually,

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Speaker 4: and I think that Baltimore is a team that is

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Speaker 4: going to so they can quinch. They need a Patriots

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Speaker 4: to lose, I believe, and then they need to they

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Speaker 4: can quench the number one seed the Patriots oos, and

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Speaker 4: then they take care of business. Yeah, so long story short,

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Speaker 4: they will still be motivated for at least one more week.

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Speaker 4: And this is a Ravens team that if you look

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Speaker 4: back since they acquired Marcus Peters, your boy, they've They've

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Speaker 4: won by twenty one over the Jets, They're two close games,

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Speaker 4: a three point win over San Francisco, top one of

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Speaker 4: the league's top defenses, and it's seven point win over the.

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Speaker 2: Bills, another one of the league's top defense.

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Speaker 4: Besides that twenty one margin of victory against the New

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Speaker 4: York Jets, thirty nine point win over the Rams, a

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Speaker 4: thirty four point win over the Texans, a thirty six

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Speaker 4: point win over the Bengals, a seventeen point win over

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Speaker 4: the Patriots, a fourteen point win over the Seahawks. So

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Speaker 4: getting some really impressive margins of victory for Baltimore here.

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Speaker 4: I think this is another spot where they are superior.

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Speaker 2: We'll see what.

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Speaker 4: Happens with Vernon, but that would aid Baltimore in being

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Speaker 4: able to have success even more.

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Speaker 2: And then you look at John Harbaugh on the road

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Speaker 2: in the.

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Speaker 4: Division in his career is actually nineteen twelve and four

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Speaker 4: sixty one percent against the spread, and as far as

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Speaker 4: these larger lines, he hasn't actually lost one higher than

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Speaker 4: a touchdown against the spread.

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Speaker 2: So not many, not a large sample, only a few games.

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Speaker 4: But this is a spot where you don't necessarily expect

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Speaker 4: a letdown from a Harbaugh coach team the way you

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Speaker 4: do with certain teams like, for example, you know the

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Speaker 4: Niners last week, or I know we'll talk about Tomlin

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Speaker 4: in a bit as well. So I like the Ravens

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Speaker 4: in this spot, just think they're much better. They've been

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Speaker 4: blowing better defenses than Cleveland out So I actually expect

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Speaker 4: this number to go over that probably move off the

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Speaker 4: key number of ten or and eventually because over eighty

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Speaker 4: percent of the money and Betts is coming in on

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Speaker 4: the Ravens in this spot, so you might see it

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Speaker 4: close at ten and a half or whatever or something

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Speaker 4: like that.

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Speaker 3: I actually disagree with you here and I'm going to

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Speaker 3: be there in an ed Raid jersey underneath us, a

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Speaker 3: sweatshirt promised by friend I do every year. I've gone

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Speaker 3: to Cleveland Baltimore in Cleveland for the last eight years,

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Speaker 3: and luckily I'll be no box watching other games as well.

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Speaker 3: And the Ravens have a ton of success in Cleveland.

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Speaker 3: I've only seen one loss I think, in all the

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Speaker 3: years that I've gone there. But look, this is you're

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Speaker 3: buying the Ravens at the peak. I mean, you are.

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Speaker 3: You know, I make this line seven and a half eight,

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Speaker 3: But I mean, to be fair, I can't adjust the

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Speaker 3: Ravens high and off every week. They just they're like Amber.

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Speaker 3: They're like a number one team in college football that's

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Speaker 3: like dominant, and they're just blowing teams out. You don't

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Speaker 3: normally see this in the NFL. You know, you see

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Speaker 3: some Patriots teams in the past do it, but they're

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Speaker 3: just you know, but what I've gone over in the past.

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Speaker 3: Number One, this is a double digit division underdog and

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Speaker 3: at home and double digit dogs in division are since

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Speaker 3: two thousand and three. They're one, twenty four, ninety six

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Speaker 3: and six, about fifty six and a half percent against

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Speaker 3: the spread, you know. And then there's the familiarity factor.

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Speaker 3: I mean Cleveland, now that there are some things working

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Speaker 3: in Ravens factory. Let me just throw that out first.

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Speaker 3: John huge coaching advantage. Harbal's the best most profitable active

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Speaker 3: coach off of bye. Now this isn't off of a bye,

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Speaker 3: but they have extra prep playing on last Thursday versus Kitchens.

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Speaker 3: They're coming back off the road the Ravens Special teams

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Speaker 3: was a mess. They have revenge because the Browns blew

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Speaker 3: them out in Baltimore, so I'm sure they'll be focused.

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Speaker 3: You already mentioned they do need to win regardless of

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Speaker 3: what happens on Saturday, but I think Cleveland will really

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Speaker 3: benefit from sing them the first time. This is besides

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Speaker 3: the Bengals. This is the first team the Ravens will

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Speaker 3: face that has seen them once before already this season.

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Speaker 2: I think beat the Bengals by thirty three the second time.

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Speaker 3: Though, yeah, I mean have the.

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Speaker 2: Beating them by six at first, so got better.

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Speaker 3: The uh so. But I just think this line is

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Speaker 3: a little inflated. I'm hoping I can get ten and

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Speaker 3: a half. You gotta imagine you're gonna get a stinker

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Speaker 3: from the Ravens eventually once.

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Speaker 4: Now I'm imagining I'm gonna get a stinker from Freddy

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Speaker 4: Kitchens because that's what's been happening.

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Speaker 3: Look, there's nothing I could say to you x's and

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Speaker 3: those wise. I mean, Chubb could have a big day

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Speaker 3: if they don't get behind early, and that familiarity factor

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Speaker 3: they've seen Lamar helps them early on. But my argument

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Speaker 3: against you is mainly the number.

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Speaker 2: That's it.

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Speaker 3: I mean, everything you're saying, I can't.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: No, And to be fair like you, no, that's generally

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Speaker 4: my brand is taking like and you've done it. You

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Speaker 4: do it most most of the year too, just taking

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Speaker 4: these ugly double digit underdogs. But especially because when I

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Speaker 4: look at Cleveland's offense and I say, okay, how would

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Speaker 4: you stop ball more from blowing you out?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you're gonna have.

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Speaker 4: To score because Baltimore home Road wherever, they're gonna put

225
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Speaker 4: up points, right, So you have to score. Now, Chubb,

226
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Speaker 4: sure he'll be fine. But Cleveland's main strength when throwing

227
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Speaker 4: the ball, they have two top end wide receivers in

228
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Speaker 4: Jarvis Landry and Odo Beckham and Baltimore.

229
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Speaker 2: That's what Baltimore has.

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Speaker 4: Been taking away, you know, that's that's part of the

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Speaker 4: reason I think they blew out the Rams. You know,

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Speaker 4: the Rams couldn't get anything going with any of their

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Speaker 4: wide receivers, and obviously the pressure factor. But I just

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Speaker 4: don't think Mayfield either. Either he'll make mistakes and it

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Speaker 4: won't be good or they just won't move the football

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Speaker 4: in the air. So I like the matchup. I do

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Speaker 4: understand the number, but again I try to keep it

238
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Speaker 4: open mind and go away from the You know, I'm

239
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Speaker 4: never gonna bet like a straight up trend or number

240
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Speaker 4: if I don't like the matchup.

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Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, but I'll also keep keep her on. Kareem Hunt,

242
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Speaker 3: by the way, he didn't playing the first matchup, and

243
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Speaker 3: the Ravens like the Blitz a lot for check downs

244
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Speaker 3: him out of the backfield. The Browns are gonna need him.

245
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Speaker 3: I They're gonna stay in this. Oh yeah, all right.

246
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Speaker 3: So for my first I am going with the New

247
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Speaker 3: York Football Jets. I was thinking about going with the

248
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Speaker 3: Giants this week, but I do like the Jets. And look,

249
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Speaker 3: this is a classic Tomlin fate spot, but that's not

250
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Speaker 3: the reason that I'm betting it, because you know, the

251
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Speaker 3: classic Tomlin fate spot is when he's a favorite. And

252
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Speaker 3: by the way, just go back to the Browns. The

253
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Speaker 3: Browns have treated me well. I'm gonna be in Cleveland.

254
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Speaker 3: I am eight in oh in Browns games in the

255
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Speaker 3: last two months, so don't let me down if I

256
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Speaker 3: end up playing Cleveland. But I'm waiting for ten and

257
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Speaker 3: a half. And by the way, for this contest. If

258
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Speaker 3: I need to, I can run down there and make

259
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Speaker 3: a tackle if needs to. So yeah, back to the Jets.

260
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Speaker 3: Look the classic Tomlin fate spot which has been so successful.

261
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Speaker 3: I mean, he's you know, he goes on the road

262
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Speaker 3: and plays a team that's under five hundred and he's

263
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Speaker 3: a favorite. I mean he's you're talking thirty five, thirty

264
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Speaker 3: six percent. On the flip side, when he's a home

265
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Speaker 3: dog against a team that's over five hundred, he's like

266
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Speaker 3: sixty five percent. It's just complete inverse relationship and it's

267
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Speaker 3: held true all this season as well. But what that

268
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Speaker 3: is predicated on is Tomlin being more of a motivator

269
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Speaker 3: and a raw rock coach and us against the world.

270
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Speaker 3: And you know I say this all the time with him,

271
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Speaker 3: he gets through his team ready to run through a wall.

272
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Speaker 3: He doesn't worry about this week because they're playing for

273
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Speaker 3: a playoff spot. This isn't like Week six going to

274
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Speaker 3: the Cardinals or going to the Raiders, So I don't

275
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Speaker 3: think motivation actually is going to be an issue here.

276
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Speaker 3: Maybe it is. I've seen Tomlins teams come out flattering

277
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Speaker 3: in bigger spots, but that's not the main cap here.

278
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Speaker 3: The Jets run defense, which was exposed a little, but

279
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Speaker 3: they have an extra prep here too. They played on

280
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Speaker 3: Thursday night, but they were missing Quinn Williams. They're missing

281
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Speaker 3: Jamal Adams is just so huge to their defense, and

282
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Speaker 3: it looks like both will be back now. The fears

283
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Speaker 3: that the Jets aren't going to play Adams because they

284
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Speaker 3: want to use them as a trade piece, or yeah,

285
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Speaker 3: he might be done to be honest, so they might

286
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Speaker 3: show you down. But he was limited in practice today,

287
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Speaker 3: so is Williams. So I'm going on the fact that

288
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Speaker 3: he's going to suit up. We'll see. What is the

289
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Speaker 3: fantasy I always see fantasy.

290
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Speaker 4: Big Steelers are the number one defense, like pretty much,

291
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Speaker 4: that's that's your fantasy implications for this game.

292
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Speaker 3: No, no, that too, but I'm saying FANTASYEOP always say

293
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Speaker 3: revenge game.

294
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Speaker 2: I think so, so I don't.

295
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Speaker 3: I don't even know what the revenge games. But there

296
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Speaker 3: is lev Bell this this year at times looks like

297
00:13:11,559 --> 00:13:16,080
Speaker 3: he's just careless out there, and I don't know what

298
00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:19,200
Speaker 3: it is, but I do know that he won't be

299
00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:21,599
Speaker 3: careless this week against the Steelers. Now, don't think you

300
00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:23,079
Speaker 3: could argue the Steelers will be fired up to play

301
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Speaker 3: against him as well. But mainly I think that if

302
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Speaker 3: Quinning comes back and the Jets run defense I still

303
00:13:27,559 --> 00:13:31,520
Speaker 3: think is solid, they can shut down the Steelers. And

304
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Speaker 3: you know it's gonna be up to Duck Hodges on

305
00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:35,679
Speaker 3: the road with his receivers, and I just don't trust

306
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Speaker 3: him against the Jets. On the other side of the ball.

307
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Speaker 3: You're gonna need lev Bell, You're gonna need Crowder who

308
00:13:41,559 --> 00:13:43,200
Speaker 3: I think he has some success in the slot because

309
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Speaker 3: the Jets offensive line is gonna get worked worked by

310
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Speaker 3: the Steelers defensive line. I think Darnold probably can take

311
00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:51,840
Speaker 3: a lot from that Ravens game against the Blitz. He

312
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Speaker 3: was that he had some success. But basically this comes

313
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Speaker 3: down to, I make this a pick and it's Duck

314
00:13:57,320 --> 00:13:59,559
Speaker 3: hod Is on the road, all the pressures on the Steelers.

315
00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:01,720
Speaker 3: The Jets can come out here and play loose. This

316
00:14:01,760 --> 00:14:06,040
Speaker 3: is one of your classic Week sixteen home dogs that

317
00:14:06,160 --> 00:14:09,679
Speaker 3: isn't going anywhere, that's playing a third string quarterback and

318
00:14:09,720 --> 00:14:12,520
Speaker 3: trying to ruin their season. They're playing spoiler. You can

319
00:14:12,559 --> 00:14:14,320
Speaker 3: throw in the leve Bell narrative, you can throw in

320
00:14:14,320 --> 00:14:17,040
Speaker 3: the Tomlin narrative, but I just think this number is inflated.

321
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Speaker 3: So give me the Jets.

322
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Speaker 4: I probably wouldn't touch it from that side, but there

323
00:14:21,360 --> 00:14:24,040
Speaker 4: is some kind of anti Tomlin fad.

324
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Speaker 2: Spots going on as well.

325
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Speaker 4: So he's forty two twenty eight against the spread in

326
00:14:28,400 --> 00:14:30,960
Speaker 4: his career coming off a loss four and one this season.

327
00:14:31,560 --> 00:14:34,880
Speaker 4: They are coming off that loss against Buffalo, and it

328
00:14:34,920 --> 00:14:38,000
Speaker 4: turns out that his his fate spots in in terms

329
00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:41,600
Speaker 4: of when he's a favorite on the road. They're all

330
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Speaker 4: above three points, so three and a half or more.

331
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Speaker 4: When you go down to three a field goal or less,

332
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Speaker 4: it's about five hundred. So it's more of like a

333
00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:51,760
Speaker 4: fifty to fifty toss up. And also, I have a

334
00:14:51,800 --> 00:14:54,960
Speaker 4: trend in bet Labs that just says bet on Gase

335
00:14:55,320 --> 00:15:00,920
Speaker 4: to keep losing, and essentially that them gage Adam Gase

336
00:15:01,200 --> 00:15:04,240
Speaker 4: in his career with the Jets and Dolphins eleven eighteen

337
00:15:04,280 --> 00:15:07,560
Speaker 4: and one, just thirty eight percent against the spread coming

338
00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:10,440
Speaker 4: off a straight up loss in three and five this year.

339
00:15:10,520 --> 00:15:12,560
Speaker 4: So it kind of cancels out for me. I ended

340
00:15:12,640 --> 00:15:15,440
Speaker 4: up settling on the under in this game, which I'll

341
00:15:15,440 --> 00:15:17,560
Speaker 4: talk about when we get to our totals.

342
00:15:17,680 --> 00:15:18,080
Speaker 3: All right.

343
00:15:18,320 --> 00:15:21,040
Speaker 4: For my second pick, I'm going with the Houston Texans

344
00:15:21,480 --> 00:15:23,920
Speaker 4: minus three against against Tampa Bay. I actually got this

345
00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:26,840
Speaker 4: line when it first came out at minus one, wrote

346
00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:28,840
Speaker 4: it up on Action Network. This is not a spot

347
00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:31,960
Speaker 4: where I usually take. The Texans generally don't have that

348
00:15:32,040 --> 00:15:35,880
Speaker 4: much success as favorites because Bill O'Brien in that team

349
00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:38,760
Speaker 4: just tends to play down to the competition. But Tampa

350
00:15:38,760 --> 00:15:43,680
Speaker 4: Bay continuing to lose offensive pieces, and I think that

351
00:15:43,800 --> 00:15:46,640
Speaker 4: in this spot you have a Texans team that can

352
00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:48,720
Speaker 4: put a lot of pressure on on a Tampa Bay defense.

353
00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:51,600
Speaker 4: It's been better against the past fifteenth and DVOA, but

354
00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:54,720
Speaker 4: they struggle. Their perimeter corners have been better Jamal Dean

355
00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:58,520
Speaker 4: Carlton Davis, both Top thirty four, Top thirty five, and

356
00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:01,560
Speaker 4: Pro Football focuses coverage Sean Murphy bunting in the slot

357
00:16:01,840 --> 00:16:05,920
Speaker 4: outside the top sixty. They also ranked thirtieth in deep

358
00:16:05,960 --> 00:16:10,800
Speaker 4: pass efficiency schedule adjusted from Football Outsiders, So Houston all

359
00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:12,920
Speaker 4: three of their receivers play in the slot at least

360
00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:15,400
Speaker 4: thirty percent. Now that they have will Fuller back, they

361
00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:18,000
Speaker 4: should be able to kind of win a if this

362
00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:20,360
Speaker 4: game goes to a shootout type script, they should be

363
00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:23,440
Speaker 4: able to win in that environment. At the same time,

364
00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:26,360
Speaker 4: you have Jameis Winston Chris Godwin. I think it hurts

365
00:16:26,400 --> 00:16:28,600
Speaker 4: even more than Mike Evans because for as good as

366
00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:31,880
Speaker 4: evans numbers were, Winston was completing only fifty six percent

367
00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:34,480
Speaker 4: to him, and his interception rate.

368
00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:38,360
Speaker 2: Was above his normal average. With Evans he threw.

369
00:16:38,440 --> 00:16:40,840
Speaker 4: I think it was seven picks when targeting Evans, so

370
00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:43,400
Speaker 4: a lot more efficient to god Wins seventy two percent

371
00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:47,000
Speaker 4: interception rate lower. So I think that's a big loss,

372
00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:49,960
Speaker 4: you know, especially with both of them now combined. Eventually,

373
00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:51,680
Speaker 4: I think it's going to catch up with him having

374
00:16:51,720 --> 00:16:55,080
Speaker 4: to throw to pshad Powerman and all these I do

375
00:16:55,160 --> 00:16:57,520
Speaker 4: like OJ Howard, but you know all these guys. I

376
00:16:57,560 --> 00:17:00,600
Speaker 4: just think Houston has the advantage on offense art spread.

377
00:17:00,680 --> 00:17:03,120
Speaker 4: I think Houston has enough here, but did get it

378
00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:05,280
Speaker 4: at one like it at three is fine, but I

379
00:17:05,280 --> 00:17:07,800
Speaker 4: wouldn't go above three. You never know what's gonna happen

380
00:17:07,840 --> 00:17:10,360
Speaker 4: with the Texans and Bill O'Brien, so a field goal

381
00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:10,840
Speaker 4: is my limit.

382
00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:13,959
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean this line is sort of odd if

383
00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:16,359
Speaker 3: you think about it. The Bucks without Godwin and Evans

384
00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:18,280
Speaker 3: it opened at one. If they win this game, I

385
00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:21,879
Speaker 3: believe they win the division and the Texans wall. Obviously

386
00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:24,520
Speaker 3: they're motivated regardless, you know. And then if the Chiefs

387
00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:27,439
Speaker 3: struck one, they can improve their seating. Blah blah blah.

388
00:17:27,440 --> 00:17:28,959
Speaker 3: But what I keep coming down to is, I mean,

389
00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:31,240
Speaker 3: Jameis Winston is red hot, and last week against the Lines,

390
00:17:31,280 --> 00:17:33,159
Speaker 3: it didn't matter who was in there at receiver, you know.

391
00:17:33,200 --> 00:17:35,280
Speaker 3: But this week, who's gonna be in There's gonna be

392
00:17:35,280 --> 00:17:38,080
Speaker 3: thrown to his backs, his tight ends. I mean, that

393
00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:40,400
Speaker 3: spells trouble if you're Jamis. But then what I keep

394
00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:43,160
Speaker 3: coming back to here from a nexus and O's perspective,

395
00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:46,879
Speaker 3: this the play is Houston, the motivation, the matchups, the

396
00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:50,360
Speaker 3: better offense, the more talented team with Godwinning, Evans out

397
00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:52,400
Speaker 3: and even Scotty Miller, we got to give our shout

398
00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:53,960
Speaker 3: out to a no. I knew he was gonna score

399
00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:55,840
Speaker 3: a touchdown when we when we trashed him last week,

400
00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:57,639
Speaker 3: you know. But what I keep coming back to is,

401
00:17:57,720 --> 00:18:00,480
Speaker 3: it's just what you said before. Is this a classic

402
00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:05,360
Speaker 3: Bill O'Brien slopfest where they come out and they are underprepared.

403
00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:10,160
Speaker 3: And if you come out underprepared and you know, just sloppy,

404
00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:12,680
Speaker 3: take it for granted, you're going to lose in the NFL,

405
00:18:12,760 --> 00:18:14,600
Speaker 3: doesn't matter who you play. And like, if you go

406
00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:16,880
Speaker 3: back to some of these games that Houston's had this year,

407
00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:18,760
Speaker 3: a couple of weeks ago, what were they down thirty

408
00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:21,240
Speaker 3: did nothing to Drew Locke at home about the half

409
00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:23,760
Speaker 3: or something. So they have these games where and it's

410
00:18:23,800 --> 00:18:25,680
Speaker 3: on the coaching staff. I feel like it's one of

411
00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:28,119
Speaker 3: the lowest rated coaching staffs in the NFL in my opinion,

412
00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:30,639
Speaker 3: where they just aren't prepared at all and they just

413
00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:33,760
Speaker 3: come out and everything is flat and it doesn't look

414
00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:35,880
Speaker 3: like they game plan. So that's the only concern here.

415
00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:37,760
Speaker 3: You would hope that that's not the case. Playing for

416
00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:41,480
Speaker 3: the Division Week sixteen in Tampa and Jamis may give

417
00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:44,320
Speaker 3: them the game anyway, trying to force with you know,

418
00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:47,439
Speaker 3: no weapons, but he is red hot, the Bucks are

419
00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:50,080
Speaker 3: red hot. But yeah, I can't argue with you there.

420
00:18:50,320 --> 00:18:53,399
Speaker 3: For my second play, I am going with a team

421
00:18:53,440 --> 00:18:56,760
Speaker 3: that I haven't touched with a thirty foot pole in

422
00:18:56,840 --> 00:18:59,280
Speaker 3: a month and a half and that's the Jacksonville Jaguars

423
00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:04,480
Speaker 3: catching seven at Atlanta. Now this is pretty much you know,

424
00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:07,840
Speaker 3: Jacksonville showed some life at the end of the fourth quarter.

425
00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:10,280
Speaker 3: I think they can get some pressure on Rhyme. But

426
00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:13,080
Speaker 3: this has nothing to do with Jacksonville. This is a

427
00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:16,280
Speaker 3: pure fade of Atlanta. What did everyone say last week

428
00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:19,040
Speaker 3: before the game and after the game, Atlanta won their

429
00:19:19,080 --> 00:19:21,280
Speaker 3: super Bowl? Well congrats Atlanta. You blew a twenty eight

430
00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:22,760
Speaker 3: three le for a real super Bowl and you got

431
00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:25,720
Speaker 3: a meaningless week fifteen win. Atlanta won their super Bowl.

432
00:19:25,800 --> 00:19:27,840
Speaker 3: So what's what's happening for this week? They won their

433
00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:30,240
Speaker 3: super Bowl last week and they're not going anywhere. They

434
00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:33,480
Speaker 3: come on to play a Jacksonville team, a dead Jacksonville

435
00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:35,280
Speaker 3: team in their dead stadium where they had tried to

436
00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:38,040
Speaker 3: pump in noise for I mean, talk about a flat spot.

437
00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:41,400
Speaker 3: This is a week sixteen game after a super Bowl.

438
00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:42,959
Speaker 3: What does that ever happen? This is the first time

439
00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:45,000
Speaker 3: the NFL history a team is playing a game the

440
00:19:45,040 --> 00:19:48,399
Speaker 3: week after winning its Super Bowl. So you know, I

441
00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:51,120
Speaker 3: expect them to be completely flat and under and underprepared,

442
00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:54,040
Speaker 3: which that always happens under dan Quinn. Now, if you

443
00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:57,280
Speaker 3: look last week, the Falcons were ready. Why well it

444
00:19:57,320 --> 00:20:00,800
Speaker 3: was their Super Bowl number two. The familiarity, the familiarity

445
00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:04,000
Speaker 3: was extreme. You have Kyle Shanahan used to be in Atlanta.

446
00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:07,200
Speaker 3: You have Robert Sala, who came from the Pete Carroll

447
00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:09,840
Speaker 3: coaching tree, their defensive coordinator. I know he's mixing in

448
00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:12,320
Speaker 3: a lot more cover for and he has his own

449
00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:14,960
Speaker 3: unique scheme now and is modified the Carrol defense. But

450
00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:18,479
Speaker 3: dan Quinn also came from Seattle, next defensive coordinator, So

451
00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:21,159
Speaker 3: that whole Atlanta staff was very familiar with what the

452
00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:23,119
Speaker 3: forty nine ers want to do. Why are they so

453
00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:25,159
Speaker 3: bad against the AFC? Well, let me first give you

454
00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:27,479
Speaker 3: the numbers. Quinn is and Quinn by the way, seventeen

455
00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:29,520
Speaker 3: and thirty one against the spread as a favorite. This

456
00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:32,800
Speaker 3: thirty five percent. Only Mike Shanahan is worse about one

457
00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:35,040
Speaker 3: hundred and twenty active and former coaches since two thousand

458
00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:37,679
Speaker 3: and three. But let's look at what Quinn does against

459
00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:41,320
Speaker 3: the AFCs. Four and sixteen against the spread against the AFC,

460
00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:45,760
Speaker 3: including oh for his last fourteen. He's oh in fourteen

461
00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:48,000
Speaker 3: in his last fourteen games against the AFC. Against the spread.

462
00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:50,640
Speaker 3: How about is a favorite against the AFC one and eleven,

463
00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:54,520
Speaker 3: three and eight straight up as a favorite against the AFC.

464
00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:57,720
Speaker 3: So why will his teams usually are not prepared, you know,

465
00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:01,440
Speaker 3: and even said this in one of his impressors this week. Yeah,

466
00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:03,960
Speaker 3: it takes extra preparation to prepare for these teams that

467
00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:07,240
Speaker 3: you're not familiar with well after winning your Super Bowl. Yeah,

468
00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:08,919
Speaker 3: I don't know if guys are gonna be putting in

469
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:10,800
Speaker 3: as much time. And it's just this is a spot

470
00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:15,959
Speaker 3: where Atlanta just continuously shows that they're gonna come out flat, underprepared.

471
00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:19,840
Speaker 3: So I'm selling high in Atlanta after last week. I'm

472
00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:21,880
Speaker 3: sure they'll find a way to get a win late.

473
00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:24,720
Speaker 3: I think they lead the NFL and fourth quarter points

474
00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:27,159
Speaker 3: and they're you know, they'll they'll they'll get up probably

475
00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:28,520
Speaker 3: a score light to win this game. But I think

476
00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:32,000
Speaker 3: jacksonvill hangs around and stays within this number in a

477
00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:34,399
Speaker 3: spot that Dan Quinn has shown over and over again

478
00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:35,640
Speaker 3: that he just does not cover.

479
00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:38,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, Atlanta should not be a seven point favorite against

480
00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:42,600
Speaker 4: like another pretty much bowlow average team, but not you know,

481
00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:48,040
Speaker 4: not anything like Dolphins bad. Atlanta should not be a

482
00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:52,280
Speaker 4: seven point favorite two pretty at this point, bad coaching staffs,

483
00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:54,880
Speaker 4: or at least coaching staff that had their teams kind

484
00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:57,719
Speaker 4: of fall short of expectations on numerous occasions, come out

485
00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:01,200
Speaker 4: flat on numerous occasions throughout this this season. So now

486
00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:03,160
Speaker 4: you're getting the points with the jack. So I think

487
00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:04,960
Speaker 4: that is the correct side of this one.

488
00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:05,440
Speaker 2: Definitely.

489
00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:10,560
Speaker 4: For my next pick, I am going with I was

490
00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:13,160
Speaker 4: going to go with the Panthers, but I think I'm

491
00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 4: gonna go with the Arizona Cardinals.

492
00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:20,640
Speaker 1: Here Raven's betting hunt Kyler Murray.

493
00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:20,560
Speaker 3: You couldn't resist.

494
00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:23,320
Speaker 2: But this is yeah, and this is nothing.

495
00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:25,920
Speaker 4: This is a play not as much to do in

496
00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:28,520
Speaker 4: the Cardinals, not even on that magic sweet spot nine

497
00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:31,080
Speaker 4: to ten point spreads, which by the way, since twenty fifteen,

498
00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:33,480
Speaker 4: the underdog has covered at an eighty two percent quip

499
00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:36,480
Speaker 4: because as mentioned, I did take the.

500
00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:37,080
Speaker 2: The Ravens on the other side of that.

501
00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:40,200
Speaker 4: But in Arizona, if they're not getting pressured, I think

502
00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:43,399
Speaker 4: Kyler Murray can they can move the ball. Seattle is

503
00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:45,960
Speaker 4: thirtieth in pressure eight and on top of that, their

504
00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 4: defense is extremely wounded. Right now, Bobby Wagner's like, he'll

505
00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:53,240
Speaker 4: be fine, but you have clowny potentially out, you have

506
00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:55,840
Speaker 4: aste potentially out Quandrey.

507
00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:57,080
Speaker 2: Giggs left the last game.

508
00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:01,720
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, Griffin so so, I mean everywhere you look

509
00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:04,840
Speaker 4: on that Seattle defense that already was kind of we

510
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:06,800
Speaker 4: struggled to get pressure and they would just play that

511
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:09,360
Speaker 4: zone scheme, drop back kind of protect against the big

512
00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:12,840
Speaker 4: play against Arizona. I think Arizona can keep it close.

513
00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:15,720
Speaker 4: I think we've seen that with them at various times

514
00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:17,920
Speaker 4: through the year. Kind of talked about that even last week.

515
00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:20,680
Speaker 4: Why didn't necessarily like them in the spot last week

516
00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:23,439
Speaker 4: because it was too close in my opinion the spread.

517
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:27,159
Speaker 4: But now we're back to Arizona getting over a touchdown

518
00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:29,960
Speaker 4: and they have been. They're up to eight five and

519
00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:31,959
Speaker 4: one against the spread this year, and pretty much all

520
00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:34,800
Speaker 4: of those covers are in games where they're getting more

521
00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:37,600
Speaker 4: than a field goal. So like this spot here, Seattle

522
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:42,119
Speaker 4: just six to eleven and one at home when a

523
00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:45,840
Speaker 4: favorite since the start of seven of twenty seventeen, that

524
00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:48,119
Speaker 4: whole Twelfth MANI narrative, I think starts to weigh on

525
00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:50,679
Speaker 4: public opinion a bit, and I think people tend to

526
00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:52,080
Speaker 4: kind of overrate the Seahawks.

527
00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:53,679
Speaker 2: They've also been very lucky.

528
00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:56,159
Speaker 4: As you pointed out, have won a lot of these games,

529
00:23:56,480 --> 00:23:59,160
Speaker 4: have had a lot of one possession games period, first

530
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:02,240
Speaker 4: of all, which I also think bodes well. So just

531
00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:04,960
Speaker 4: just like Arizona to be able to move the ball

532
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:07,119
Speaker 4: a little better than usual in this spot.

533
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:09,679
Speaker 3: Yeah, I actually completely agree with you here, even though

534
00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:11,480
Speaker 3: I'm not allowed to bet Cliff Cliff Kingsbury, but i

535
00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:14,119
Speaker 3: might take away myself from post band because I'm betting

536
00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:16,439
Speaker 3: against the Seahawks, not on the Cardinals. Here. The Seahawks

537
00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:18,840
Speaker 3: have won one game all year by double digits, and

538
00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:20,840
Speaker 3: that was against the Cardinals. But if you go back

539
00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:22,720
Speaker 3: and look at that game, the Cardinals went all the

540
00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:24,120
Speaker 3: way down the field to start the game, they missed

541
00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:27,120
Speaker 3: a field goal, and then the Seahawks got a field goal,

542
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:29,439
Speaker 3: and then there was like a weird play where Clowney

543
00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:32,440
Speaker 3: had to pick six after a review. You know, there

544
00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:35,040
Speaker 3: was just Seahawks turnover stuff. But if you look at

545
00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:38,080
Speaker 3: the final, like that was huge for the entire game.

546
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:39,639
Speaker 3: But if you look at the you know, the final

547
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:42,600
Speaker 3: box score, the yards are three forty to three twenty one.

548
00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:44,560
Speaker 3: The yards were played five point eight to five point four.

549
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:46,880
Speaker 3: It wasn't as big of a route as the box

550
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:49,200
Speaker 3: score showed and this is just a terrible spot for

551
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:50,960
Speaker 3: Seattle team. It doesn't really blow anybody out. And you

552
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:54,560
Speaker 3: mentioned the injuries on the defense, but look Seattle, naturally

553
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:57,240
Speaker 3: they blew this Arizona team out there coming back from

554
00:24:57,240 --> 00:25:00,159
Speaker 3: the East Coast after a win over the Panthers. And

555
00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:03,480
Speaker 3: next week is basically for the division for a potential

556
00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:06,119
Speaker 3: one seed. They host a forty nine ers, so they

557
00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:08,960
Speaker 3: might may rest somebody that's on the on the fence

558
00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:11,320
Speaker 3: of playing, and then they also just might get caught

559
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:13,679
Speaker 3: napping a little bit and come out a little flat

560
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:16,720
Speaker 3: and caught looking ahead. So and yeah, it's a divisional

561
00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:22,320
Speaker 3: opponent catching right around ten plus, which is always worth

562
00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:24,840
Speaker 3: a look. So I completely agree with you. The Seahawks

563
00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:28,439
Speaker 3: were main overvalued in the market as they are the

564
00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:31,080
Speaker 3: one seed in the NFC with a plus twenty four

565
00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:34,320
Speaker 3: net margin on the year, which is just crazy. The

566
00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:37,399
Speaker 3: average scoring margin for an eleven win team is just

567
00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 3: a hair over two. Okay, So for my third pick,

568
00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:44,520
Speaker 3: so we'll go to Tennessee post three. If I'm waiting

569
00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:47,600
Speaker 3: on a three here, a flat three against New Orleans.

570
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:49,919
Speaker 3: You have New Orleans of a short week, I'm selling

571
00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:51,960
Speaker 3: them high here, I make this line closer to one.

572
00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:55,960
Speaker 3: You know, they're short week going outdoors after everyone saw

573
00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:59,920
Speaker 3: how good they looked. Look Tennessee, who's everyone's darling? Last week?

574
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:02,600
Speaker 3: They still played really well against Houston, and if you

575
00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:06,080
Speaker 3: look at that box score, they actually outplayed the Texans.

576
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:08,720
Speaker 3: And there was a couple flukey plays on both sides,

577
00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 3: but the one in particular was Houston. Excuse me, Tennessee

578
00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:15,000
Speaker 3: was going in to score. The ball bounced up, it

579
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:18,000
Speaker 3: was picked by a Texans lineman who returned it like

580
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:20,760
Speaker 3: ninety yards inside the ten flip fourteen points. Wing flipped

581
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:24,000
Speaker 3: the game. So I mean Titans still played fine. I

582
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 3: still like their defense. This Saints team to me is

583
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:28,879
Speaker 3: you know, you're not going to stop Michael Thomas and

584
00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:30,680
Speaker 3: Drew Brees is going to be efficient. But Kamar is

585
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:32,800
Speaker 3: still not himself. He just does not look right. And

586
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:35,359
Speaker 3: they've had major injuries on the defensive side. You know,

587
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:39,560
Speaker 3: with Rankins and Davenport now out, I think that you

588
00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 3: can run them. I think Henry, hopefully he's healthy, can

589
00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:45,160
Speaker 3: establish the run. I think Tannel can have some success

590
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:46,560
Speaker 3: throwing the ball. And if you just look at the

591
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:48,960
Speaker 3: Saints team, this is the peak This is the peak

592
00:26:49,000 --> 00:26:50,760
Speaker 3: of the Saints, just like the Ravens in the market.

593
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:53,200
Speaker 3: They just won thirty four to seven on Monday night.

594
00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:54,879
Speaker 3: And by the way, like I said, short week now,

595
00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:55,960
Speaker 3: they're playing outdoors.

596
00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:56,280
Speaker 2: You know.

597
00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 3: But if you look back, there are spreads this year,

598
00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:00,760
Speaker 3: and some of them were with Bridgewater Road. I mean,

599
00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 3: they are a five point dog at Seattle, They're two

600
00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:06,920
Speaker 3: and a half point dog in London against Jacksonville. They're

601
00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:09,960
Speaker 3: plus four and a half at Chicago. This team's dealing

602
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:12,359
Speaker 3: with injuries, but this is the peak. I'm selling getting

603
00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:15,320
Speaker 3: a three year at home with the Titans. Who were

604
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:16,920
Speaker 3: you know, And it doesn't always work this way. You're

605
00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:19,439
Speaker 3: playing for your season. Both teams are highly motivated. The

606
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:22,159
Speaker 3: Saints need to win. Motivation isn't going to be a

607
00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 3: defining factor here. The Saints won a one or two

608
00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 3: seed in the NFC. The Titans want to get to

609
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:28,840
Speaker 3: the playoffs. They wouldn't win the division, but they got

610
00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 3: to keep winning if they want to get to the playoffs.

611
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:33,359
Speaker 3: I've loved what I've seen from this team over the

612
00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:36,160
Speaker 3: last month, month and a half and that didn't change

613
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:39,000
Speaker 3: last week. There was a couple of flukey plays, so

614
00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:43,879
Speaker 3: you know, short week, Saints outdoors, injuries on both sides

615
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:46,920
Speaker 3: of the ball. I think the Titans get this done.

616
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:48,160
Speaker 3: So I'll glad they take the three.

617
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:48,760
Speaker 2: Yeah.

618
00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:52,760
Speaker 4: And if you guys out there listening, you know, when

619
00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:56,040
Speaker 4: you sign up for bet Labs, you also get a

620
00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:58,840
Speaker 4: couple other cool tools, one of them which is that Signals,

621
00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:02,280
Speaker 4: which essentially is just another overview of the market. You

622
00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:04,879
Speaker 4: could see steam moves and different things like that and

623
00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:08,360
Speaker 4: the Titans. Once that line hit plus three, the Titans

624
00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:10,879
Speaker 4: did get steamed quite a few books. And that line

625
00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 4: is I think moved back down to two and a

626
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:15,520
Speaker 4: half now. So for everyone out there, if you don't

627
00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 4: get the three, you probably I mean you would say

628
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:19,800
Speaker 4: there's value at it.

629
00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:21,679
Speaker 2: Above one and a half, right stuck.

630
00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:23,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, But if you can't get the I mean, the

631
00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:25,840
Speaker 3: three is such an important number, then if it's sitting

632
00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 3: there at then an expensive you know, if it's a

633
00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:30,760
Speaker 3: juice two and a half for the Saints, buy the three.

634
00:28:30,880 --> 00:28:34,200
Speaker 3: But I would imagine, as of right now, it looks

635
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:37,520
Speaker 3: like there's more money probably I would imagine more public

636
00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:40,840
Speaker 3: money on the Saints, So you know, I would wait

637
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:43,640
Speaker 3: on it. It's also a great teaser piece at two

638
00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:45,080
Speaker 3: and a half up to eight and a half, which

639
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:47,120
Speaker 3: I'll get two later. But yeah, I think I would

640
00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:48,760
Speaker 3: buy it up to three. But you have time, and

641
00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:50,520
Speaker 3: I think that this might bounce up to three and

642
00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:52,840
Speaker 3: then bounce back down with sharp money taken if it

643
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:54,880
Speaker 3: hits three. So if you don't have a three while

644
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:56,840
Speaker 3: you're listening to this, wait on it. And then if

645
00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:58,640
Speaker 3: you have a chance to buy it later in the week.

646
00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:01,000
Speaker 3: If it never pops, go ahead. And that all right?

647
00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:04,040
Speaker 4: So that does it for our Sunday six pack against

648
00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:07,800
Speaker 4: the spread picks. Stuck has the Jags, the Jets, and Titans.

649
00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 4: I'm rolling with the Ravens, the Texans and the Arizona Cardinals.

650
00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:15,120
Speaker 4: All right, let's get into our favorite over ender of

651
00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:18,440
Speaker 4: the week. All right, Stuck, we both actually like totals

652
00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:19,960
Speaker 4: from the Saturday games.

653
00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:20,960
Speaker 2: Why don't you start us off?

654
00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:26,320
Speaker 3: Yeah? I like the Rams forty nine ers. Under let

655
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 3: me check the most recent forty Yeah. Yeah, there's still

656
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:35,400
Speaker 3: hook out there. Look, I mean if you go back

657
00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:38,239
Speaker 3: to the first time these teams played, and this was

658
00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:41,440
Speaker 3: And by the way, something we've mentioned before in the

659
00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:44,040
Speaker 3: past is this is a late season or a second

660
00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:47,880
Speaker 3: late season. But more importantly, a second division meeting between

661
00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:50,640
Speaker 3: two teams, which you know generally favors the under the

662
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:53,640
Speaker 3: familiarity generally favors the defense. The first time these two

663
00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:57,160
Speaker 3: teams played, san Fran won twenty to seven. What happened

664
00:29:57,160 --> 00:30:01,560
Speaker 3: in this game is San Fran went completely vanilla on

665
00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:05,520
Speaker 3: offense because they just said, and Kyle Shanahan said this

666
00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:08,080
Speaker 3: after the game, like we just knew that they weren't,

667
00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:09,520
Speaker 3: you know, once they got a lead, that they weren't

668
00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:12,280
Speaker 3: gonna move the ball on us. And this is the

669
00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:14,840
Speaker 3: game where Sala was going nuts on the sideline with

670
00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:17,360
Speaker 3: all of his players and the Rams couldn't do anything

671
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:20,240
Speaker 3: on offense. Well, why is that? Well, san Feran is

672
00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:21,520
Speaker 3: a really good defense and by the way, it looks

673
00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 3: like Sherman and to warn wins. Will we back their

674
00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:25,320
Speaker 3: two corners who were out last week, which will help

675
00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 3: a couple of other guys are questionable, but more importantly

676
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:30,320
Speaker 3: their corners we back, they still will get pressure with

677
00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:31,760
Speaker 3: the best on the Rams at one hundred and sixty

678
00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:34,520
Speaker 3: five yards in this game, total offense three point three

679
00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:36,760
Speaker 3: yards per play. It was a home game, but really

680
00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:39,040
Speaker 3: might not have been. There was a lot more forty nine.

681
00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:40,560
Speaker 3: It might have been more forty nine Ers fans at

682
00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:43,360
Speaker 3: this game. But they can get pressure with their defensive

683
00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:45,280
Speaker 3: line naturally, it's one of the things that makes the

684
00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:47,760
Speaker 3: forty nine ers so great. Does their secondary win healthy,

685
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:50,080
Speaker 3: which it's gonna be a lot healthier this week. Their

686
00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:53,440
Speaker 3: secondary is good, and they can generate pressure without blitzing.

687
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:56,280
Speaker 3: They're one of the They blitz as little as any

688
00:30:56,280 --> 00:30:57,960
Speaker 3: team in the NFL, and they have one of the

689
00:30:58,040 --> 00:30:59,960
Speaker 3: highest sack rates, the highest pressure rates, and they don't

690
00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 3: blitz because they can generate pressure with their defensive front.

691
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:06,480
Speaker 3: And if you can generate pressure on Jared Goff, good night,

692
00:31:06,520 --> 00:31:10,360
Speaker 3: there goes the Rams offense. And this is also a

693
00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:13,120
Speaker 3: short week. Todd Gurley, who got a lot of touches

694
00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:15,480
Speaker 3: last week, and I still think he's just not healthy.

695
00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:17,360
Speaker 3: Something's off. But you got a lot of touches.

696
00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:19,040
Speaker 2: A little better, let's a little better.

697
00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:21,120
Speaker 3: But like a short week now and they after all

698
00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:24,480
Speaker 3: those touches, you know, it's who knows what you're gonna get.

699
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:27,120
Speaker 3: It's just it's very hard to predict with Girley. But regardless,

700
00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 3: they're gonna be able to get pressure on Golf and

701
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:31,400
Speaker 3: they're gonna throw off this Rams offense. You saw the

702
00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 3: Cowboys do it, and the Cowboys don't have as good

703
00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:36,200
Speaker 3: of a secondary as the forty nine ers. You should

704
00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:38,640
Speaker 3: also get a very focused effort from the forty nine

705
00:31:38,720 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 3: ers their defense last week after you know Julio and

706
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:44,960
Speaker 3: that drive from the Falcons late. While I don't think

707
00:31:45,000 --> 00:31:47,320
Speaker 3: the Rams offense will do much, I do think their

708
00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:50,800
Speaker 3: defense is really good. Troy Hill is actually really important

709
00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:53,719
Speaker 3: to that team, giving out who his backup is, and

710
00:31:53,760 --> 00:31:55,760
Speaker 3: you know they have a great Ramsey on one side,

711
00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:58,480
Speaker 3: they have a great nickel corner and Roby Coleman, and

712
00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:00,080
Speaker 3: then Troy Hill has been playing a lot better. It

713
00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:02,160
Speaker 3: looks like he's got He left the game last week

714
00:32:02,240 --> 00:32:04,120
Speaker 3: with an injury to his thumb or somewhere in his hand.

715
00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:05,800
Speaker 3: He gota wrapped up. They think that he should be

716
00:32:05,840 --> 00:32:08,240
Speaker 3: able to go. But I do think that this Rams

717
00:32:08,280 --> 00:32:12,160
Speaker 3: defense is a top six or seven unit overall, and

718
00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:14,320
Speaker 3: a lot of the advanced numbers back that up. You

719
00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:18,200
Speaker 3: should see after them getting embarrassed in the first meeting,

720
00:32:18,400 --> 00:32:21,640
Speaker 3: after them getting embarrassed last week against Dallas, you know

721
00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:24,120
Speaker 3: this is a prideful unit. With Donald and Weddell in

722
00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:29,160
Speaker 3: those corners. You should see an inspired effort from this

723
00:32:29,360 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 3: Rams defense. So late division, late season division game, another

724
00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 3: matchup teams familiar with each other at most. This is

725
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:41,840
Speaker 3: like twenty seventeen, twenty three seventeen ish. Maybe a little

726
00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:44,120
Speaker 3: value on the Rams, but I like the underhear yeah.

727
00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:47,360
Speaker 4: And I actually just finished before we got on to

728
00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:51,200
Speaker 4: record this podcast, writing up the biggest mythmatch.

729
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:53,160
Speaker 2: For the Rams Niners games.

730
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:56,320
Speaker 4: And for those not familiar, we preview every game on

731
00:32:56,400 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 4: Action network dot com and in the app, and in

732
00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:01,440
Speaker 4: one of the sections, you know, there's odds and there

733
00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:05,800
Speaker 4: stucks usually doing something on mismatches or I will, but

734
00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:08,280
Speaker 4: this week, in that game, in this game, what I

735
00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:10,160
Speaker 4: wrote up was, you know, the Niners D line going

736
00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:12,800
Speaker 4: against that Rams O line in golf, and that's because

737
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:15,200
Speaker 4: exactly what you said, you know, to put some numbers

738
00:33:15,200 --> 00:33:18,360
Speaker 4: behind it. They pressured Golf on forty six percent of

739
00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:21,440
Speaker 4: his dropbacks in that first meeting. On those it was

740
00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:24,040
Speaker 4: thirteen dropbacks, and all that he was pressured on he

741
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:28,000
Speaker 4: went two of nine passing for twelve yards with four sacks.

742
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:30,680
Speaker 4: The Niners D line is still pretty helped him. He

743
00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:34,480
Speaker 4: still got Bosa Buckner, you still got Armstead there. So

744
00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:37,000
Speaker 4: those are the key guys. The Rams only have one

745
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:39,880
Speaker 4: guy starting on the O line, Andrew Whitworth, who ranks

746
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:44,320
Speaker 4: better than forty six in Pro Football focuses pass blocking grades, and.

747
00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:47,960
Speaker 2: That includes the center, who you know you should rank.

748
00:33:48,320 --> 00:33:50,560
Speaker 4: If you're ranked outside of top thirty two, that's back

749
00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:52,120
Speaker 4: because there's only one center per team.

750
00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:56,560
Speaker 2: So it's ugly for the Rams. So yeah, I'm totally

751
00:33:56,560 --> 00:33:56,760
Speaker 2: with you.

752
00:33:56,800 --> 00:33:59,160
Speaker 4: I expect a lower scoring game because that Rams defense

753
00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:02,360
Speaker 4: has also improved, and that the Niners offense. I mean,

754
00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:06,600
Speaker 4: Kyle Shanahan good schemer, but I think this Rams defense

755
00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:08,520
Speaker 4: is pretty talented and will be motivated.

756
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:09,719
Speaker 3: So I like that call for.

757
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:12,040
Speaker 2: My total, and this is pretty on brand.

758
00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:14,680
Speaker 4: No one likes to bet these these ugly totals, so

759
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:18,560
Speaker 4: I'll just take them. Jets Steelers under thirty eight. Love

760
00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:20,640
Speaker 4: love love the under in this game. I don't think

761
00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:24,480
Speaker 4: people realize how good the Steelers defense is. If you

762
00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:29,520
Speaker 4: look at their schedule adjusted efficiency in football outside is DVOA,

763
00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:32,440
Speaker 4: they're the only defense. They ranked number three overall, behind

764
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:35,080
Speaker 4: only New England and San Francisco, but they're the only

765
00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:37,560
Speaker 4: one of those three and the only defense in the

766
00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:41,240
Speaker 4: league that is ranked top five against both the pass

767
00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:43,399
Speaker 4: and the run, they're number five and pass d they're

768
00:34:43,480 --> 00:34:46,400
Speaker 4: number three in run dye. This Steelers team has been

769
00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:50,720
Speaker 4: an under machine all year long, and I expected to continue.

770
00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:52,320
Speaker 2: Usually you expect these trends.

771
00:34:52,040 --> 00:34:55,439
Speaker 4: To kind of reverse. But I think you would probably

772
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:58,120
Speaker 4: agree me. Even if the Jets win this game, they

773
00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:00,880
Speaker 4: probably aren't winning it, you know, twenty eight to twenty

774
00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:03,319
Speaker 4: or something like that. This is a game where the

775
00:35:03,360 --> 00:35:06,560
Speaker 4: Steelers are They're gonna probably show up to play d

776
00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:08,319
Speaker 4: and if we always talk about kind of when to

777
00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:10,760
Speaker 4: fade Tom Win in terms of the points spread and whatnot.

778
00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:13,960
Speaker 4: But another thing, aside from the Steelers defense going under

779
00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:17,560
Speaker 4: overlook just this year, is that in his career, Mike

780
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:21,640
Speaker 4: tom Win coaching the Steelers has been the number one

781
00:35:22,200 --> 00:35:25,640
Speaker 4: most profitable coach to bet the under on the road.

782
00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:28,200
Speaker 4: Out of one hundred and twenty five coaches, Mike tom

783
00:35:28,200 --> 00:35:30,600
Speaker 4: Win has made you the most money going back to

784
00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:34,239
Speaker 4: two thousand and three sixty and forty two towards the

785
00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:37,399
Speaker 4: under against the spread when tom Win takes his team

786
00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:40,319
Speaker 4: on the road. Now, I think earlier it was not

787
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:42,480
Speaker 4: only to do with the defense. I think there was

788
00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:45,640
Speaker 4: kind of what you pointed out they come out flat

789
00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:49,200
Speaker 4: on the road in certain spots, but this year in particular,

790
00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:51,800
Speaker 4: I think it has a lot to do with the defense.

791
00:35:52,200 --> 00:35:55,640
Speaker 4: The under is eleven and three this season in Steelers games,

792
00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:58,800
Speaker 4: it's hit for six straight and that's because that defense.

793
00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:00,640
Speaker 2: They're lights out.

794
00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:02,719
Speaker 4: I mean, this is another one of those games that

795
00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:06,239
Speaker 4: kind of profiles to me as a similar one where

796
00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:08,920
Speaker 4: you have the Steelers, you know, kind of okay, are

797
00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:09,960
Speaker 4: we going to start duck Hodges?

798
00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:12,479
Speaker 2: Are we not? They'll play close to the vest, they'll

799
00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:13,320
Speaker 2: run the football.

800
00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:16,120
Speaker 4: You mentioned that the Jets run defense not quite as

801
00:36:16,160 --> 00:36:19,160
Speaker 4: strong as it's been, so I think the Steelers will

802
00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 4: keep it on the ground. They're not going to be

803
00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:23,839
Speaker 4: just launching it downfield unless they really have to, which

804
00:36:23,840 --> 00:36:26,880
Speaker 4: I don't see the meeting to because again, top five defense,

805
00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:28,680
Speaker 4: so love the under thirty eight.

806
00:36:28,719 --> 00:36:30,360
Speaker 2: Still taking it's under thirty eight.

807
00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:35,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, I can't argue with you there. I will say

808
00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:40,560
Speaker 3: that the Jets have been a little better of a

809
00:36:40,640 --> 00:36:43,040
Speaker 3: punting team. I need to get my special team shout

810
00:36:43,040 --> 00:36:46,279
Speaker 3: out in there. And this game could come down to

811
00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:49,040
Speaker 3: a field position and that just you know, one or

812
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:51,160
Speaker 3: two drives and that's all it will take to win.

813
00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:52,399
Speaker 3: This game on.

814
00:36:52,480 --> 00:36:54,719
Speaker 2: Brand as always Stuck. So there you have it.

815
00:36:54,920 --> 00:36:57,800
Speaker 4: As far as our favorite totals, Stuck's going with Rams

816
00:36:57,880 --> 00:36:59,799
Speaker 4: Niners under forty five and a half. I'm going with

817
00:36:59,880 --> 00:37:03,319
Speaker 4: the Jets under thirty eight. Now let's get into our

818
00:37:03,400 --> 00:37:04,680
Speaker 4: favorite teaser of the week.

819
00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:08,600
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

820
00:37:08,920 --> 00:37:10,240
Speaker 2: Stuck, who you going with this week?

821
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:13,320
Speaker 3: I mentioned my one teaser Piezer. I'm going true Wong teaser,

822
00:37:13,360 --> 00:37:15,000
Speaker 3: which is teaser one and a half to two and

823
00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:18,359
Speaker 3: a half point dog up past the three, four, six

824
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:20,880
Speaker 3: and seven, and or a seven and a half to

825
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:24,239
Speaker 3: eight and a half point favorite down under seven sixty

826
00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 3: four to three. So I'm going Chargers under a field goal.

827
00:37:27,320 --> 00:37:29,279
Speaker 3: I think they should beat the Raiders as long as

828
00:37:29,280 --> 00:37:30,959
Speaker 3: they don't turn it over seven times. I mean, they're

829
00:37:31,000 --> 00:37:34,040
Speaker 3: healthy now, they're significantly more talented. If they don't fumble

830
00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:37,040
Speaker 3: it six times, they should win this game. And you know,

831
00:37:37,120 --> 00:37:39,319
Speaker 3: I mean Philip Rivers will have vall day to throw.

832
00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:42,440
Speaker 3: They should run the ball, His receivers should get open.

833
00:37:42,840 --> 00:37:45,640
Speaker 3: But it's true Wong. I'm taking them and then the

834
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:49,279
Speaker 3: Titans up over three, six and seven. As I said,

835
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:53,319
Speaker 3: so Titans plus eight and a half and Chargers minus

836
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:54,839
Speaker 3: one and a half, all.

837
00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:57,719
Speaker 4: Right, So teasing Kansas City down to a pick the

838
00:37:57,760 --> 00:38:01,759
Speaker 4: line is a little bit inflated. I think that being said,

839
00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:04,920
Speaker 4: Kennas City has covered at a pretty high clip on

840
00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:09,960
Speaker 4: the road under Andy Reid. They are sixty six percent

841
00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:14,120
Speaker 4: thirty five eighteen and one per bet labs against the

842
00:38:14,160 --> 00:38:17,719
Speaker 4: spread on the road under Andy Reid, including four in

843
00:38:17,800 --> 00:38:21,640
Speaker 4: too this season. And that's just been generally the nature

844
00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:24,480
Speaker 4: of Reed as a head coach, seventy nine to fifty

845
00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:28,720
Speaker 4: two and three sixty percent all time, including his time

846
00:38:29,200 --> 00:38:31,919
Speaker 4: with the Philadelphia Eagles two thousand and three and later

847
00:38:32,000 --> 00:38:36,239
Speaker 4: as well. And for my other teaser pick, going with

848
00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:39,920
Speaker 4: the Philadelphia Eagles up to eight and a half. Just

849
00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:42,799
Speaker 4: kind of selling high on the Dallas Cowboys. You've talked

850
00:38:42,800 --> 00:38:45,040
Speaker 4: about this stuck where, you know, a couple of weeks ago,

851
00:38:45,120 --> 00:38:49,600
Speaker 4: Cowboys a road favorite against Chicago, everyone and their mom

852
00:38:49,640 --> 00:38:52,440
Speaker 4: wants to back them, getting eighty percent of the bets

853
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:54,600
Speaker 4: eighty percent, close to eighty percent of the money, I

854
00:38:54,600 --> 00:38:57,000
Speaker 4: believe it was. And this is a spot where now

855
00:38:57,040 --> 00:39:00,319
Speaker 4: they're coming off the blowout against the Rams, which I think,

856
00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:03,200
Speaker 4: as you pointed out, what was the time to back them?

857
00:39:03,680 --> 00:39:08,000
Speaker 4: And again they are on the road favorites by two

858
00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:10,880
Speaker 4: and a half and getting seventy seven percent of the

859
00:39:10,880 --> 00:39:14,040
Speaker 4: best eighty six percent of the money. So don't know

860
00:39:14,120 --> 00:39:16,799
Speaker 4: exactly if the Eagles can can pull this one off.

861
00:39:16,880 --> 00:39:19,560
Speaker 4: Think that they might actually have a decent chance to

862
00:39:19,560 --> 00:39:21,880
Speaker 4: get the win here, but I think it can be

863
00:39:22,120 --> 00:39:24,000
Speaker 4: will be a one possession game, So like teasing it

864
00:39:24,080 --> 00:39:26,600
Speaker 4: up to eight and a half through those key numbers

865
00:39:26,640 --> 00:39:28,879
Speaker 4: of three, six, and seven.

866
00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:34,239
Speaker 3: The Regret Bowl for su so that that wraps it

867
00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:37,680
Speaker 3: up for our teaser segment, Stuck has Tennessee teasing them

868
00:39:37,719 --> 00:39:40,160
Speaker 3: up to plus nine and the Chargers down to a

869
00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:40,719
Speaker 3: half point.

870
00:39:40,840 --> 00:39:43,480
Speaker 4: I'm taking Philly up to eight five and the Chiefs

871
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 4: down to a pick. Now let's get into our underdog

872
00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:48,840
Speaker 4: money line par.

873
00:39:48,719 --> 00:39:56,759
Speaker 1: Way turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for

874
00:39:56,800 --> 00:39:59,280
Speaker 1: the money line parlay.

875
00:39:59,480 --> 00:40:02,439
Speaker 4: So this week, as you mentioned at the time, when

876
00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:05,879
Speaker 4: underdogs tend to cover the spread at a pretty good

877
00:40:05,960 --> 00:40:10,080
Speaker 4: rate in spots. But let's see if we can hit

878
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:13,160
Speaker 4: on some that actually win the game. I'll start us

879
00:40:13,160 --> 00:40:15,960
Speaker 4: off going with the New York Giants here, and when

880
00:40:15,960 --> 00:40:17,879
Speaker 4: I look up and down the slate, I do think

881
00:40:17,920 --> 00:40:20,160
Speaker 4: that a fair amount of underdogs will end up covering.

882
00:40:20,200 --> 00:40:23,880
Speaker 4: This week mentioned Carolina might be an option as well.

883
00:40:24,320 --> 00:40:26,360
Speaker 4: You talked about the Jacks, who I think have a

884
00:40:26,440 --> 00:40:29,719
Speaker 4: chance to win that game, potentially even the Raiders the line.

885
00:40:29,760 --> 00:40:30,680
Speaker 2: A lot of teams out.

886
00:40:30,520 --> 00:40:33,600
Speaker 4: There I think could cover as dogs that people are

887
00:40:33,600 --> 00:40:36,200
Speaker 4: probably counting out, or at least the casual better the

888
00:40:36,200 --> 00:40:40,080
Speaker 4: market is probably counting out. But like the Giants here,

889
00:40:40,160 --> 00:40:43,960
Speaker 4: just because it's a short spread, it's a game between

890
00:40:43,960 --> 00:40:46,880
Speaker 4: two bad teams where I don't think the Redskins have

891
00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:49,840
Speaker 4: a market edge on the Giants.

892
00:40:49,480 --> 00:40:50,720
Speaker 2: In any particular category.

893
00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:53,520
Speaker 4: Now, you always worry about, you know, Daniel Jones, it

894
00:40:53,560 --> 00:40:55,640
Speaker 4: looks like he's going to get the nod turned the

895
00:40:55,640 --> 00:40:58,680
Speaker 4: ball over, but at the same time worry about Dwayne Haskins,

896
00:40:58,680 --> 00:41:01,560
Speaker 4: who has the high sach rate in the league. I

897
00:41:01,640 --> 00:41:03,960
Speaker 4: just think it's one of those coin flip games where

898
00:41:04,880 --> 00:41:07,880
Speaker 4: if if the Redskins were underdogs, I'd probably be backing

899
00:41:07,880 --> 00:41:11,200
Speaker 4: the Redskins here. So I'm going with the Giants plus

900
00:41:11,320 --> 00:41:12,440
Speaker 4: one twenty.

901
00:41:12,680 --> 00:41:15,640
Speaker 3: The Cowboys Eagles game, if you look at it, it's

902
00:41:15,719 --> 00:41:18,280
Speaker 3: you're buying the Cowboys that have peaked, like you said,

903
00:41:18,400 --> 00:41:19,640
Speaker 3: But at the end of the day, they have the

904
00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:21,759
Speaker 3: more talented weapons in the outside, which might be the

905
00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:24,360
Speaker 3: difference as long as the Cowboys do the little things.

906
00:41:24,440 --> 00:41:26,879
Speaker 3: But just to bring this up, this wild this is

907
00:41:27,160 --> 00:41:29,439
Speaker 3: this is just the theory of mine. The NFC East

908
00:41:29,480 --> 00:41:31,760
Speaker 3: has been so bad all year. This is what's gonna happen.

909
00:41:32,880 --> 00:41:35,560
Speaker 3: The Eagles are gonna beat the Cowboys. The Eagles are

910
00:41:35,560 --> 00:41:37,840
Speaker 3: gonna beat the Cowboys at home this week. This is

911
00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:40,920
Speaker 3: just the NFC's cast theory. Eagles beat the Cowboys at

912
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:43,000
Speaker 3: home this week, and then they lose at the Giants

913
00:41:43,080 --> 00:41:46,200
Speaker 3: next week, and the Cowboys beat the Redskins, and the

914
00:41:46,200 --> 00:41:48,719
Speaker 3: Cowboys win the division at eight and eight. That is

915
00:41:48,760 --> 00:41:53,439
Speaker 3: the perfect ending to the NFC East. The Eagles beat

916
00:41:53,440 --> 00:41:55,759
Speaker 3: the Cowboys this week, then lose at the Giants, and

917
00:41:56,600 --> 00:41:58,880
Speaker 3: Eli Manning will somehow find a way to be five hundred.

918
00:41:58,680 --> 00:42:00,759
Speaker 4: Yeah, and then throw for like five hundred as he

919
00:42:00,800 --> 00:42:03,920
Speaker 4: always does in meetingless games against the Eagles.

920
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:06,759
Speaker 2: Wait in the season, but keep it New York man.

921
00:42:06,800 --> 00:42:09,000
Speaker 3: I'm going to be up in New York tomorrow for

922
00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:14,080
Speaker 3: our Christmas party, and hopefully I can party a little bit.

923
00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:17,080
Speaker 3: I'll be recording multiple podcasts for our Bulls, which, by

924
00:42:17,120 --> 00:42:20,240
Speaker 3: the way, five part series. First one will be out Friday,

925
00:42:20,480 --> 00:42:23,319
Speaker 3: second one Monday. We're covering all the bulls. Chronologic would

926
00:42:23,400 --> 00:42:26,360
Speaker 3: like eight to ten each episode, but let's keep it

927
00:42:26,400 --> 00:42:27,880
Speaker 3: all New York. I already mentioned the Jets. I think

928
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:31,200
Speaker 3: they beat the Steelers this weekend. So Jets, Giants, Underdog

929
00:42:31,239 --> 00:42:32,359
Speaker 3: money Line parlave.

930
00:42:32,719 --> 00:42:36,200
Speaker 4: What bar we go into to sing Billy Joel with

931
00:42:36,400 --> 00:42:40,759
Speaker 4: random people at three a time? So that doesn't for

932
00:42:41,320 --> 00:42:44,520
Speaker 4: Underdog money Line part way, which payout just over four

933
00:42:44,600 --> 00:42:47,800
Speaker 4: to one, you would if you bet one hundred dollars

934
00:42:47,800 --> 00:42:51,720
Speaker 4: on it, you would win four thirty nine for a

935
00:42:51,800 --> 00:42:55,240
Speaker 4: total payout of five thirty nine.

936
00:42:55,440 --> 00:42:56,400
Speaker 2: All right, let's.

937
00:42:56,239 --> 00:42:59,200
Speaker 4: Get into the best of the rest, which are the

938
00:42:59,239 --> 00:43:02,120
Speaker 4: games that did make it into any other segment. All right,

939
00:43:02,160 --> 00:43:04,359
Speaker 4: so we'll start right off with this Saturday, the last

940
00:43:04,400 --> 00:43:07,800
Speaker 4: Saturday game. We have the New England Patriots six and

941
00:43:07,880 --> 00:43:11,200
Speaker 4: a half point favorites at home against.

942
00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:12,360
Speaker 2: The Buffalo Bills.

943
00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:15,160
Speaker 4: This game actually has a lot of implications as far

944
00:43:15,280 --> 00:43:18,279
Speaker 4: as the division, because if the Bills can win this

945
00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:20,919
Speaker 4: one and then the Patriots, who are they having?

946
00:43:21,800 --> 00:43:25,600
Speaker 3: Sorry they got the Dolphins at home? Oh no, So

947
00:43:25,640 --> 00:43:27,920
Speaker 3: even if the Bills win this week and if the

948
00:43:27,920 --> 00:43:29,880
Speaker 3: Patriots win and the Bills win next week to the

949
00:43:29,920 --> 00:43:31,080
Speaker 3: Patriots win the tiebreaker.

950
00:43:31,600 --> 00:43:33,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, so never mind.

951
00:43:33,719 --> 00:43:36,720
Speaker 4: It actually doesn't have as many implications as the networks

952
00:43:36,719 --> 00:43:39,520
Speaker 4: will probably sell it as though the Bills could pull

953
00:43:39,600 --> 00:43:43,080
Speaker 4: even if they win this game. They are ten and

954
00:43:43,200 --> 00:43:45,880
Speaker 4: four of the Pats are eleven and three, six and

955
00:43:45,880 --> 00:43:50,520
Speaker 4: a half point favorites, again getting just thirty seven percent

956
00:43:50,560 --> 00:43:53,920
Speaker 4: of the bets, but forty four percent of the money,

957
00:43:53,960 --> 00:43:56,360
Speaker 4: so bigger bets coming in on New England. Here the

958
00:43:56,400 --> 00:43:59,000
Speaker 4: total has dropped open at thirty eight and a half.

959
00:43:59,239 --> 00:44:03,600
Speaker 4: I actually took it at that mark. Love the Patriots

960
00:44:03,840 --> 00:44:05,880
Speaker 4: unders in these type of games.

961
00:44:06,120 --> 00:44:07,799
Speaker 2: They played a low scoring game the first time.

962
00:44:08,440 --> 00:44:11,600
Speaker 4: We are seeing sixty six percent of the bet seventy

963
00:44:11,640 --> 00:44:14,560
Speaker 4: seven percent of the money on the total which has

964
00:44:14,640 --> 00:44:17,720
Speaker 4: dropped on the under, which has dropped to thirty seven

965
00:44:18,360 --> 00:44:21,520
Speaker 4: and a half, and just I have a pretty interesting

966
00:44:21,560 --> 00:44:22,400
Speaker 4: stat here.

967
00:44:23,360 --> 00:44:24,080
Speaker 2: Josh Allen.

968
00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:27,680
Speaker 4: These Bills games are another one like the Steelers that

969
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:31,440
Speaker 4: I've been hammering the under most of the season, so

970
00:44:31,600 --> 00:44:34,680
Speaker 4: that if you follow me in the action apput this

971
00:44:34,719 --> 00:44:38,560
Speaker 4: one is particularly outrageous, to the point where I almost

972
00:44:38,640 --> 00:44:41,840
Speaker 4: think it's probably going to just regress and I'll be

973
00:44:41,880 --> 00:44:45,640
Speaker 4: out of luck. But Josh Allen on the road in

974
00:44:45,680 --> 00:44:49,560
Speaker 4: his career, the under is a perfect ten and oh

975
00:44:50,120 --> 00:44:53,319
Speaker 4: ten and oh you don't usually see that, you know,

976
00:44:53,400 --> 00:44:56,200
Speaker 4: in any type of against the spread over under any

977
00:44:56,200 --> 00:44:59,520
Speaker 4: type of market line, just being able to extend to

978
00:44:59,719 --> 00:45:02,080
Speaker 4: a s implicize of ten with no losses except like

979
00:45:02,080 --> 00:45:04,520
Speaker 4: g it's Dan Quinn versus the AFC, So just I

980
00:45:04,600 --> 00:45:06,960
Speaker 4: point that out. But the unders eighteen and six overall

981
00:45:07,480 --> 00:45:10,720
Speaker 4: with Sean McDermott as the head coach of the Bills,

982
00:45:11,120 --> 00:45:15,520
Speaker 4: and we also probably will see temperatures below thirty under

983
00:45:16,120 --> 00:45:19,760
Speaker 4: is twenty seven and eighteen sixty percent in those spots,

984
00:45:19,800 --> 00:45:21,759
Speaker 4: and for his career, the under is hitting out a

985
00:45:21,800 --> 00:45:24,240
Speaker 4: seventy two percent clip for Josh Allen.

986
00:45:24,440 --> 00:45:26,440
Speaker 3: If I can get in a low scoring game the

987
00:45:26,560 --> 00:45:30,960
Speaker 3: Visional game late season, which really isn't for the division people,

988
00:45:31,160 --> 00:45:32,960
Speaker 3: it probably means a lot more to the Bills than

989
00:45:32,960 --> 00:45:35,560
Speaker 3: it does to Patriots. I'm taking the seven. If it

990
00:45:35,600 --> 00:45:37,879
Speaker 3: doesn't get the seven, I'm probably going to stay off

991
00:45:37,960 --> 00:45:40,000
Speaker 3: with the seven being a key number. If the Patriots

992
00:45:40,040 --> 00:45:42,600
Speaker 3: creep up to a seven, that's really valuable. With a

993
00:45:42,600 --> 00:45:44,480
Speaker 3: total thirty seven and a half, and two teams that

994
00:45:44,480 --> 00:45:47,400
Speaker 3: are familiar with each other, with this outstanding Bills defense

995
00:45:47,760 --> 00:45:51,880
Speaker 3: and this Patriots offense that continues to be broken. Two

996
00:45:51,960 --> 00:45:55,360
Speaker 3: teams that are probably a little overvalued in the market

997
00:45:55,400 --> 00:45:57,640
Speaker 3: in general, but not where they're facing each other. Obviously,

998
00:45:57,640 --> 00:45:59,600
Speaker 3: the Bills can finish it with eleven wins and have

999
00:45:59,719 --> 00:46:02,600
Speaker 3: no wins over a winning team, by the way, but

1000
00:46:02,719 --> 00:46:04,480
Speaker 3: I agree with you, it's probably under nothing if you're

1001
00:46:04,480 --> 00:46:05,160
Speaker 3: betting the total.

1002
00:46:05,400 --> 00:46:07,799
Speaker 4: We have the five and nine Panthers at the six

1003
00:46:07,880 --> 00:46:11,080
Speaker 4: and eight Colts. Colts favored by seven sixty six percent

1004
00:46:11,680 --> 00:46:13,719
Speaker 4: of the be sixty eight percent of the money on

1005
00:46:13,760 --> 00:46:16,920
Speaker 4: the Panthers total at forty six sixty four percent of

1006
00:46:16,920 --> 00:46:20,279
Speaker 4: the tickets on the over, but fifty four percent of

1007
00:46:20,280 --> 00:46:23,000
Speaker 4: the money is on the under, So that that looks

1008
00:46:23,080 --> 00:46:26,960
Speaker 4: like one where there might be some some sharps on

1009
00:46:27,120 --> 00:46:29,040
Speaker 4: the under, and that one I was thinking of taking

1010
00:46:29,040 --> 00:46:32,160
Speaker 4: the Panthers plus seven, but I am a fan of

1011
00:46:32,200 --> 00:46:35,200
Speaker 4: Will Greer, liked what I saw from him, and like

1012
00:46:35,320 --> 00:46:38,759
Speaker 4: the kind of unknown factor with him coming in for

1013
00:46:38,840 --> 00:46:41,800
Speaker 4: his first start with a pretty talented group of skill players,

1014
00:46:41,840 --> 00:46:42,760
Speaker 4: but a lot.

1015
00:46:42,640 --> 00:46:44,160
Speaker 2: Of uncertainty at the same time.

1016
00:46:44,360 --> 00:46:48,160
Speaker 4: Colts are I think a little bit better at this

1017
00:46:48,320 --> 00:46:52,799
Speaker 4: point overall, So probably just going to stay away at

1018
00:46:52,840 --> 00:46:54,560
Speaker 4: the key number of seven. I don't see much value

1019
00:46:54,600 --> 00:46:54,960
Speaker 4: either way.

1020
00:46:54,960 --> 00:46:57,160
Speaker 3: What about you, Yeah, it's probably stay right here. I mean,

1021
00:46:57,200 --> 00:46:59,360
Speaker 3: where where are the Colts heads at after that Monday

1022
00:46:59,440 --> 00:47:01,279
Speaker 3: night game. It is a short week, but they were

1023
00:47:01,320 --> 00:47:04,960
Speaker 3: eliminated from playoff contention. But you have a rookie quarterback

1024
00:47:05,000 --> 00:47:09,000
Speaker 3: making his first start on the road. Meanwhile, the Colts

1025
00:47:09,120 --> 00:47:11,520
Speaker 3: should be able to run the ball against this horrible

1026
00:47:11,640 --> 00:47:14,359
Speaker 3: Panthers running that's another thing, which is what they want

1027
00:47:14,400 --> 00:47:18,600
Speaker 3: to do. So line's probably about right all right.

1028
00:47:18,680 --> 00:47:20,960
Speaker 4: Next one we have is three to ten one Detroit

1029
00:47:21,080 --> 00:47:27,000
Speaker 4: at five and nine Denver. And the line for this

1030
00:47:27,040 --> 00:47:31,120
Speaker 4: one Denver by seven. Getting seventy three percent of the

1031
00:47:31,120 --> 00:47:33,360
Speaker 4: bets but only fifty six percent of the money, so

1032
00:47:33,960 --> 00:47:37,400
Speaker 4: pretty big discrepancy there. Thirty eight point five is the

1033
00:47:37,440 --> 00:47:40,880
Speaker 4: total that's been bet up about a point. We've seen

1034
00:47:41,080 --> 00:47:43,600
Speaker 4: sixty five percent of the tickets hit the over, but

1035
00:47:43,880 --> 00:47:46,359
Speaker 4: fifty four percent of the money on the under. So uh,

1036
00:47:46,640 --> 00:47:48,759
Speaker 4: that's another one to look out for. I don't think

1037
00:47:48,760 --> 00:47:53,160
Speaker 4: the Lions will have much success with David Blau against

1038
00:47:53,200 --> 00:47:56,920
Speaker 4: this Denver d but Denver could actually have some success

1039
00:47:57,239 --> 00:48:00,680
Speaker 4: with Drew Rock against this Lions d So probably one

1040
00:48:00,680 --> 00:48:03,680
Speaker 4: where I'd still lean under any thoughts on this one stuff.

1041
00:48:04,000 --> 00:48:06,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, the line's probably a tad high, but

1042
00:48:07,360 --> 00:48:10,520
Speaker 3: Broncos were playing pretty well. They beat the Chargers. You know,

1043
00:48:10,520 --> 00:48:12,680
Speaker 3: they wanted Houston before that game in Kansas City, but

1044
00:48:12,719 --> 00:48:14,759
Speaker 3: a lot of that was just snow and Kansas City

1045
00:48:14,800 --> 00:48:17,360
Speaker 3: was just so much better in the snow and ready

1046
00:48:17,400 --> 00:48:19,759
Speaker 3: for it, and everything just went wrong for Denver that game.

1047
00:48:19,880 --> 00:48:22,880
Speaker 3: So yeah, I can't see Detroit winning this game, but

1048
00:48:23,520 --> 00:48:27,000
Speaker 3: you know, Drew Lock at home. It's probably tad inflated.

1049
00:48:27,000 --> 00:48:28,520
Speaker 3: But do I want any part of Detroit here to No,

1050
00:48:28,920 --> 00:48:29,520
Speaker 3: it might be a.

1051
00:48:29,480 --> 00:48:32,480
Speaker 4: Pass if Denver kind of covers that spread and does

1052
00:48:32,520 --> 00:48:36,040
Speaker 4: what they expect. You expect it to be because Detroit

1053
00:48:36,120 --> 00:48:40,160
Speaker 4: just doesn't score much at all, so I think you

1054
00:48:40,239 --> 00:48:42,960
Speaker 4: expect like a Denver thirty one to seven ROMP or

1055
00:48:42,960 --> 00:48:46,040
Speaker 4: something like that. So I kind of still like the

1056
00:48:46,120 --> 00:48:48,279
Speaker 4: under there because I think, on the other hand, Denver

1057
00:48:48,280 --> 00:48:51,440
Speaker 4: could also just run the ball, play defense and kind

1058
00:48:51,480 --> 00:48:54,440
Speaker 4: of win the game that way. Detroit defense is exploitable

1059
00:48:54,640 --> 00:48:57,160
Speaker 4: pretty much anyway you want at this point, so That's

1060
00:48:57,239 --> 00:48:58,680
Speaker 4: how I've leaned, but not.

1061
00:48:58,640 --> 00:49:01,279
Speaker 2: Sure if I'll actually go through with that one yet.

1062
00:49:01,560 --> 00:49:03,880
Speaker 4: One in twelve, Cincinnati did what we thought would be

1063
00:49:03,920 --> 00:49:06,879
Speaker 4: the Tank Bowl, which kind of isn't because two wins

1064
00:49:06,920 --> 00:49:10,640
Speaker 4: separate the Dolphins and Bengals. Bengals on the road in

1065
00:49:10,680 --> 00:49:13,400
Speaker 4: Miami one point Underdogsough, I've seen this line kind of

1066
00:49:13,480 --> 00:49:15,560
Speaker 4: jump up and down to where it's a pick. I've

1067
00:49:15,560 --> 00:49:18,839
Speaker 4: seen Bengals favorite at a couple of books, So this

1068
00:49:18,880 --> 00:49:19,680
Speaker 4: is one.

1069
00:49:19,719 --> 00:49:21,560
Speaker 2: You could probably get value either way.

1070
00:49:22,160 --> 00:49:25,160
Speaker 4: Fifty eight percent of the best, fifty five percent of

1071
00:49:25,200 --> 00:49:27,759
Speaker 4: the money on the Dolphins if the total shot up

1072
00:49:27,760 --> 00:49:29,239
Speaker 4: it opened at forty five and a half top to

1073
00:49:29,280 --> 00:49:32,120
Speaker 4: forty seven, sixty eight percent of the BET's seventy three

1074
00:49:32,120 --> 00:49:33,720
Speaker 4: percent of the money on the over.

1075
00:49:34,239 --> 00:49:35,319
Speaker 2: What do you think about this one?

1076
00:49:35,360 --> 00:49:37,839
Speaker 3: Stuff? Oh no, I mean I've been fading Miami into

1077
00:49:37,880 --> 00:49:40,680
Speaker 3: oblivion the past month and a half. I make this

1078
00:49:41,280 --> 00:49:42,440
Speaker 3: since he minus one.

1079
00:49:42,880 --> 00:49:44,719
Speaker 2: Points, so there are four points better four?

1080
00:49:44,800 --> 00:49:46,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I don't care if I only give

1081
00:49:46,280 --> 00:49:49,120
Speaker 3: Miami's home field a couple points. This is a complete

1082
00:49:49,120 --> 00:49:51,120
Speaker 3: toss opening game I don't want to get involved in.

1083
00:49:51,640 --> 00:49:52,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's tough.

1084
00:49:52,640 --> 00:49:56,080
Speaker 4: I mean, Dalton is now in his career, when he

1085
00:49:56,120 --> 00:49:58,160
Speaker 4: goes against a sub five hundred team, I think the

1086
00:49:58,160 --> 00:50:01,200
Speaker 4: market usually kind of they just like it's Andy Dawn.

1087
00:50:01,719 --> 00:50:04,240
Speaker 4: But he is twenty eight and twenty for his career

1088
00:50:04,320 --> 00:50:08,640
Speaker 4: with three pushes against the spread versus sub five hundred teams,

1089
00:50:08,840 --> 00:50:12,440
Speaker 4: but only one in four this season. Because yes, it

1090
00:50:12,520 --> 00:50:13,520
Speaker 4: is really nothing there.

1091
00:50:13,800 --> 00:50:16,440
Speaker 2: Okay, So that wraps it up for best of the rest.

1092
00:50:16,840 --> 00:50:20,000
Speaker 4: One note I wanted to point out on that Saturday

1093
00:50:20,320 --> 00:50:23,960
Speaker 4: Buffalo New England matchup is that, as we've done the

1094
00:50:24,000 --> 00:50:26,400
Speaker 4: past few weeks, we're running a new Fade Revel promotion

1095
00:50:26,640 --> 00:50:29,879
Speaker 4: with our friends at points Bet sportsbook. This week, our

1096
00:50:29,880 --> 00:50:33,520
Speaker 4: colleague Darren Ravel is taking the Buffalo Bills as six

1097
00:50:33,560 --> 00:50:36,880
Speaker 4: and a half point underdogs in Foxborough. Points Bet is

1098
00:50:36,960 --> 00:50:40,760
Speaker 4: boosting New England minus six and a half to plus

1099
00:50:40,760 --> 00:50:44,959
Speaker 4: one five and personally I would probably mean the Bills here,

1100
00:50:45,000 --> 00:50:48,200
Speaker 4: but again, it's always fun to fade our guy Darren Ravel.

1101
00:50:48,320 --> 00:50:51,279
Speaker 4: So if you're interested in Fading Revel, just follow the

1102
00:50:51,320 --> 00:50:55,360
Speaker 4: link in the episode description for more details. All right,

1103
00:50:55,520 --> 00:50:58,920
Speaker 4: let's we're gonna preview the Monday night game. Before we

1104
00:50:59,000 --> 00:51:01,839
Speaker 4: do that, it's quickly go survivor here.

1105
00:51:02,320 --> 00:51:06,759
Speaker 3: One pick one chance to advance.

1106
00:51:08,480 --> 00:51:11,319
Speaker 2: Survivor manage to.

1107
00:51:11,080 --> 00:51:14,760
Speaker 4: Survive all season here, but don't have many teams left

1108
00:51:15,000 --> 00:51:25,560
Speaker 4: in our little game U Seattle, Houston, Dallas, Chargers, Eagles, Pats, Bills, Vikes, Niners, Ravens, Raiders, Browns, Chiefs, Packers,

1109
00:51:25,600 --> 00:51:28,960
Speaker 4: and Saints last week. So now it's really ugly if

1110
00:51:28,960 --> 00:51:30,840
Speaker 4: you're still alive in your survivor pool. I mean you

1111
00:51:30,880 --> 00:51:35,040
Speaker 4: probably already won. But give me the Broncos off brand.

1112
00:51:35,120 --> 00:51:39,359
Speaker 4: But like the Broncos with enough defense to beat the lion.

1113
00:51:39,480 --> 00:51:40,560
Speaker 2: So that's what I'm going with.

1114
00:51:40,640 --> 00:51:43,520
Speaker 4: Let's see if we can make it sixteen straight. And

1115
00:51:43,840 --> 00:51:46,680
Speaker 4: now let's preview the Monday night game. All right, so

1116
00:51:46,719 --> 00:51:50,080
Speaker 4: we have the Green Bay Packers going to Minnesota divisional

1117
00:51:50,160 --> 00:51:54,280
Speaker 4: matchup Vikings savored by five and a half. Packers getting

1118
00:51:54,280 --> 00:51:57,480
Speaker 4: the best sixty six percent, but Vikings getting the money.

1119
00:51:57,880 --> 00:52:01,319
Speaker 4: They're getting sixty one percent of the money. So queer

1120
00:52:01,400 --> 00:52:04,880
Speaker 4: disagreement here. It seems like between the more casual betters

1121
00:52:04,880 --> 00:52:07,360
Speaker 4: and the bigger betters, that line has moved from an

1122
00:52:07,400 --> 00:52:09,120
Speaker 4: open of four and a half to its current spot

1123
00:52:09,120 --> 00:52:11,440
Speaker 4: at five and a half. As we record this total,

1124
00:52:11,480 --> 00:52:15,320
Speaker 4: forty six sixty two of the best seventy four percent

1125
00:52:15,560 --> 00:52:19,440
Speaker 4: of the money on the overstuck Which side of this

1126
00:52:20,000 --> 00:52:20,600
Speaker 4: spreader you on?

1127
00:52:21,080 --> 00:52:23,400
Speaker 3: You hear so much that the the Packers are It

1128
00:52:23,480 --> 00:52:25,520
Speaker 3: gets so we want to fade the Packers. That it's

1129
00:52:25,560 --> 00:52:28,799
Speaker 3: becoming so it's almost becoming so quote unquote sharp that

1130
00:52:28,840 --> 00:52:31,200
Speaker 3: it's square. We want to fade the Packers. But they

1131
00:52:31,239 --> 00:52:33,680
Speaker 3: have their flaws, and I think they're like plus twelve

1132
00:52:33,800 --> 00:52:36,120
Speaker 3: or thirteen in turnover margin and their wins this year.

1133
00:52:36,320 --> 00:52:39,440
Speaker 3: Their run defense isn't very good. Their past defense hasn't

1134
00:52:39,440 --> 00:52:41,920
Speaker 3: been good in a lot of games this year. You know,

1135
00:52:41,960 --> 00:52:44,080
Speaker 3: their offense gets up early and then kind of goes

1136
00:52:44,120 --> 00:52:48,319
Speaker 3: into a shell. From the yards for play perspective, they're off.

1137
00:52:48,360 --> 00:52:51,560
Speaker 3: They're you know, total pictures pretty ugly. But all they

1138
00:52:51,640 --> 00:52:53,799
Speaker 3: do is win games. They have Aaron Rodgers and they

1139
00:52:53,800 --> 00:52:56,520
Speaker 3: find ways to cover. You know, you saw everyone want

1140
00:52:56,520 --> 00:52:59,680
Speaker 3: to fade them against Chicago last week that didn't work

1141
00:52:59,680 --> 00:53:01,759
Speaker 3: out well. You know the week a couple weeks before

1142
00:53:01,800 --> 00:53:04,440
Speaker 3: then with the Giants that didn't work out well. This

1143
00:53:04,480 --> 00:53:06,680
Speaker 3: is a similar spot with the Panthers. They were minus five.

1144
00:53:06,719 --> 00:53:09,319
Speaker 3: They covered. You know these numbers, these short numbers. The

1145
00:53:09,360 --> 00:53:12,279
Speaker 3: Packers have found a way to cover. Now they're a

1146
00:53:12,320 --> 00:53:15,799
Speaker 3: dog here, and I think the line, you know, around

1147
00:53:15,880 --> 00:53:18,520
Speaker 3: four and a half for five was about right. The Vikings,

1148
00:53:18,560 --> 00:53:20,680
Speaker 3: where they played the Packers the first time around, it

1149
00:53:20,719 --> 00:53:22,759
Speaker 3: was well one of those games. That's why a lot

1150
00:53:22,800 --> 00:53:25,120
Speaker 3: of people that are that are deep into the advanced

1151
00:53:25,160 --> 00:53:27,600
Speaker 3: numbers don't like the Packers. They've had a number of

1152
00:53:27,640 --> 00:53:29,359
Speaker 3: fortunate wins and this was one of them. I mean,

1153
00:53:29,440 --> 00:53:33,160
Speaker 3: Kirk Cousins threw a horrible, horrible pick at the end

1154
00:53:33,160 --> 00:53:35,560
Speaker 3: of this game to cost them the game. Bailey missed

1155
00:53:35,560 --> 00:53:37,480
Speaker 3: a field. Well, they ended up losing twenty one sixteen,

1156
00:53:37,520 --> 00:53:39,560
Speaker 3: but they outgained the Packers four twenty one to three

1157
00:53:39,719 --> 00:53:42,960
Speaker 3: thirty five seven yards per play for the Vikings and

1158
00:53:43,080 --> 00:53:45,600
Speaker 3: under five for the pack So I think the line's

1159
00:53:45,640 --> 00:53:47,879
Speaker 3: about right now. Everyone wants to fade the Packers, but

1160
00:53:48,000 --> 00:53:51,000
Speaker 3: that's now priced into the market. Packers huge game for

1161
00:53:51,000 --> 00:53:53,239
Speaker 3: them because they went out. They get a buye you know,

1162
00:53:53,320 --> 00:53:55,719
Speaker 3: from a total perspective, so I don't think I'll be

1163
00:53:55,760 --> 00:53:57,360
Speaker 3: on a side here, but from the total second, I

1164
00:53:57,400 --> 00:53:59,000
Speaker 3: like the over. I think it's the startment tick up.

1165
00:53:59,000 --> 00:54:01,680
Speaker 3: But at forty five, I think the Packers can have

1166
00:54:01,719 --> 00:54:04,759
Speaker 3: some success on the outside I hope Xavier Roads is

1167
00:54:04,760 --> 00:54:06,719
Speaker 3: healthy enough to go. I know people are worried about

1168
00:54:06,760 --> 00:54:08,719
Speaker 3: him going. I hope he does go for the Packers sake.

1169
00:54:08,880 --> 00:54:11,239
Speaker 3: And then I think the Vikings can move the ball

1170
00:54:11,239 --> 00:54:13,480
Speaker 3: in the ground and they'll commit to it, and you

1171
00:54:13,480 --> 00:54:15,360
Speaker 3: know they'll also have some success on the outside with

1172
00:54:15,400 --> 00:54:17,759
Speaker 3: the receivers with feeling back. Now, you know he didn't

1173
00:54:17,760 --> 00:54:19,160
Speaker 3: get a lot of snaps last week, but I think

1174
00:54:19,160 --> 00:54:20,959
Speaker 3: that was on purpose and the score got out of hand,

1175
00:54:20,960 --> 00:54:23,160
Speaker 3: and they obviously wanted him for this game. Extra day

1176
00:54:23,200 --> 00:54:25,680
Speaker 3: of rest also, so you should have the full complement

1177
00:54:25,719 --> 00:54:28,319
Speaker 3: of receivers for cousins at home. So I think you

1178
00:54:28,360 --> 00:54:31,279
Speaker 3: see more points. And it was a late season divisional game,

1179
00:54:31,320 --> 00:54:34,799
Speaker 3: it's really important for the division. But I would lean

1180
00:54:34,840 --> 00:54:35,600
Speaker 3: over forty five.

1181
00:54:35,680 --> 00:54:37,799
Speaker 4: Here the line and the total are kind of stuck

1182
00:54:37,840 --> 00:54:41,160
Speaker 4: in those dead zones where you know it's between the

1183
00:54:41,239 --> 00:54:43,640
Speaker 4: three and the six, and then the total is between

1184
00:54:43,680 --> 00:54:47,320
Speaker 4: the forty five and the forty seven. So I think,

1185
00:54:47,480 --> 00:54:49,480
Speaker 4: you know, at forty six, I go over, But if

1186
00:54:49,520 --> 00:54:51,640
Speaker 4: it hit you know, forty seven forty seven and a half,

1187
00:54:51,719 --> 00:54:55,360
Speaker 4: it's probably probably under the play. I mean, Dalvin cooked

1188
00:54:55,520 --> 00:54:57,840
Speaker 4: Adam Schefker says Dalvin Cooked probably going to miss the

1189
00:54:57,880 --> 00:55:00,759
Speaker 4: next two weeks, so that's something to my or as well.

1190
00:55:00,800 --> 00:55:05,440
Speaker 4: But a couple of interesting notes on Monday Night football

1191
00:55:05,760 --> 00:55:08,040
Speaker 4: and then and then these road dogs, so I mentioned

1192
00:55:08,080 --> 00:55:10,640
Speaker 4: it week fifteen sixteen, road Dogs by three to eight.

1193
00:55:10,880 --> 00:55:13,160
Speaker 4: They're covering at a sixty one percent clip going back

1194
00:55:13,200 --> 00:55:15,600
Speaker 4: to twenty oh three. But on the other hand, you

1195
00:55:15,680 --> 00:55:18,640
Speaker 4: have the money which is going, you know, heavily to

1196
00:55:18,680 --> 00:55:21,480
Speaker 4: Minnesota right now. The money has been right more often

1197
00:55:21,480 --> 00:55:24,439
Speaker 4: than not on Monday Night football. So when a team

1198
00:55:24,480 --> 00:55:27,080
Speaker 4: is getting fifty one percent or more of the money

1199
00:55:27,640 --> 00:55:31,120
Speaker 4: on Monday Night Football, they are thirty eight, twenty two

1200
00:55:31,200 --> 00:55:34,560
Speaker 4: and three against the spread sixty three percent ten to

1201
00:55:34,560 --> 00:55:38,400
Speaker 4: four this season, which is seventy one percent, So probably.

1202
00:55:38,160 --> 00:55:40,880
Speaker 3: I will say Rogers, though, is like fifty and thirty

1203
00:55:40,960 --> 00:55:44,040
Speaker 3: two or something silly against the spread when the line

1204
00:55:44,040 --> 00:55:46,680
Speaker 3: moves against him. And then within the division, I think

1205
00:55:46,680 --> 00:55:48,640
Speaker 3: he's like thirty eight and twenty four. I mean, he's

1206
00:55:48,680 --> 00:55:51,560
Speaker 3: silly against the spread against these teams that he's familiar with.

1207
00:55:51,600 --> 00:55:52,759
Speaker 3: So just something to keep in mind.

1208
00:55:52,920 --> 00:55:54,799
Speaker 4: I don't know if a lot of the numbers with

1209
00:55:54,880 --> 00:55:57,520
Speaker 4: Rogers apply at this point, just because he had such

1210
00:55:57,520 --> 00:55:59,360
Speaker 4: a he was like in a week quarterback with a

1211
00:55:59,360 --> 00:56:02,880
Speaker 4: weeak weapon in like a whole nother coaching staff. But

1212
00:56:03,239 --> 00:56:05,759
Speaker 4: I do think that, Yeah, you're still betting against Aaron

1213
00:56:05,840 --> 00:56:09,080
Speaker 4: Rodgers in a game that they could win much less.

1214
00:56:09,600 --> 00:56:11,760
Speaker 3: Or getting easily getting a back door, you know, Rogers

1215
00:56:11,960 --> 00:56:12,759
Speaker 3: down ten late.

1216
00:56:13,200 --> 00:56:16,200
Speaker 4: Probably we just take the points if I had to choose,

1217
00:56:16,239 --> 00:56:18,120
Speaker 4: But I'm with you.

1218
00:56:18,160 --> 00:56:19,040
Speaker 2: I think it's about right.

1219
00:56:19,160 --> 00:56:20,920
Speaker 4: So that wraps it up for another episode of the

1220
00:56:20,920 --> 00:56:23,640
Speaker 4: Action Network podcast. You can follow Stucky on Twitter at

1221
00:56:23,640 --> 00:56:26,400
Speaker 4: Stucky two and me at Chris Raybond.

1222
00:56:26,640 --> 00:56:29,520
Speaker 2: You can follow us on the Action App at those.

1223
00:56:29,480 --> 00:56:32,239
Speaker 4: Same handles, and we showed it down with the Action

1224
00:56:32,280 --> 00:56:35,680
Speaker 4: App for live odds, in game win probabilities and the

1225
00:56:35,960 --> 00:56:37,719
Speaker 4: capability to track every.

1226
00:56:37,560 --> 00:56:39,480
Speaker 2: Bet that to make.

1227
00:56:39,960 --> 00:56:43,240
Speaker 4: I know you and Colin Wilson have a lot planned

1228
00:56:43,280 --> 00:56:45,880
Speaker 4: as far as the college football bull season goes.

1229
00:56:45,920 --> 00:56:48,040
Speaker 2: Why don't you tell people what to expect over the

1230
00:56:48,040 --> 00:56:48,560
Speaker 2: next week.

1231
00:56:48,680 --> 00:56:50,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, we got We're gonna have a five part Bowl

1232
00:56:50,920 --> 00:56:54,200
Speaker 3: preview series. The first one will be out on Friday morning.

1233
00:56:54,280 --> 00:56:59,040
Speaker 3: We'll be covering all the bulls for Friday, Saturday, and Monday.

1234
00:56:59,200 --> 00:57:01,920
Speaker 3: I think there's eight to ten and then we'll have

1235
00:57:01,960 --> 00:57:04,719
Speaker 3: another podcast that comes out on Monday morning covering all

1236
00:57:04,760 --> 00:57:08,759
Speaker 3: the balls from Tuesday to Friday, etc. Etc. That same

1237
00:57:08,800 --> 00:57:12,160
Speaker 3: schedule that you're used to Friday morning Monday morning release

1238
00:57:12,200 --> 00:57:14,160
Speaker 3: and we'll cover you know, eight to ten bowls for

1239
00:57:14,200 --> 00:57:16,920
Speaker 3: the three or four days coming up after the release dates,

1240
00:57:16,920 --> 00:57:20,000
Speaker 3: so we'll go into all every single bowl in depth,

1241
00:57:20,120 --> 00:57:23,960
Speaker 3: big mismatches, just things to look for to help you

1242
00:57:24,040 --> 00:57:27,640
Speaker 3: out as you are venturing out on your bowl betting

1243
00:57:28,040 --> 00:57:29,600
Speaker 3: bnanza over the next month.

1244
00:57:30,040 --> 00:57:32,200
Speaker 4: If you're interested in Action Network and what we do here,

1245
00:57:32,520 --> 00:57:36,160
Speaker 4: a lot of great stuff obviously beyond just stuck in myself,

1246
00:57:36,200 --> 00:57:39,680
Speaker 4: a lot of sharp data analysis and all that good

1247
00:57:39,720 --> 00:57:43,560
Speaker 4: stuff tools. So if you're interested in checking it out,

1248
00:57:43,800 --> 00:57:45,520
Speaker 4: you can get an Action Network Edge for the next

1249
00:57:45,560 --> 00:57:48,640
Speaker 4: six month for only twenty bucks. That's only three thirty

1250
00:57:48,680 --> 00:57:52,280
Speaker 4: three per month for bowl games, NFL playoffs, March madness,

1251
00:57:52,360 --> 00:57:55,240
Speaker 4: all that good stuff, so be sure to check that out.

1252
00:57:55,680 --> 00:57:58,680
Speaker 4: Just wanting to point that out, and good luck this weekend.

1253
00:57:59,320 --> 00:58:02,360
Speaker 4: We'll be back week seventeen to break.

1254
00:58:02,120 --> 00:58:03,959
Speaker 2: Down the NFL. Should be a good week.

1255
00:58:04,160 --> 00:58:18,360
Speaker 3: I'd love just go back up. We're finished talking