Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news for LOSTURMA.
Speaker 2: That's Iranian State Television confirming today that President Ibrahim Raisi
Speaker 2: has died.
Speaker 3: MA. Raisi was traveling in a helicopter with eight others,
Speaker 3: including Iran's foreign minister, from the country's border with Azerbaijan.
Speaker 3: All on board were killed.
Speaker 2: The crash happened in the early afternoon local time on Sunday.
Speaker 2: According to Iranian State TV.
Speaker 3: It was in northwestern Iran, and the weather conditions hampered
Speaker 3: rescue efforts for hours.
Speaker 4: This was a very mountainous, remote region. The fog limited
Speaker 4: visibility to about five yards. I mean, just absolute pea soup.
Speaker 2: That's Bloomberg's National security editor Nick Wadhams.
Speaker 4: And then you have this fact that the Iranian economy
Speaker 4: has been under US and Western sanctions for so many years.
Speaker 4: That makes it very differfficult for them to get to
Speaker 4: buy new helicopters to get spare parts.
Speaker 2: The helicopter that Rayisi flew in was a US manufactured
Speaker 2: Bell two one two, a model that first entered service
Speaker 2: in nineteen sixty eight and stopped being made in nineteen
Speaker 2: ninety eight.
Speaker 4: I lived in Russia for three years in the two thousands,
Speaker 4: we were constantly writing stories about some of these Soviet
Speaker 4: era helicopters that were falling from the sky. I mean,
Speaker 4: they were very unsaved.
Speaker 3: Raisi's death comes at a delicate time for Iran. The
Speaker 3: country's government is facing increased levels of descent and unpopularity
Speaker 3: over the state of the economy and its enforcement of
Speaker 3: strict dress codes for women.
Speaker 1: He crept down very heavily when there were protests related
Speaker 1: to Iran's treatment of women, for example, and that really
Speaker 1: didn't endear him to broader society in Iran either.
Speaker 2: That's Rosalind Matheson, who oversees coverage of Europe, Africa and
Speaker 2: the Middle East for Bloomberg. Under Raisi, Iran has also
Speaker 2: had to navigate its role in the ongoing conflict in
Speaker 2: the Middle East.
Speaker 1: Through him and the proxies that Iran controls in the region,
Speaker 1: we can see the pickups intensions that happened with countries
Speaker 1: like Israel, most recently with the conflict in Gaza.
Speaker 3: Well Raj says the next president is unlikely to radically
Speaker 3: transform Iran's foreign or domestic agenda. A leadership change could
Speaker 3: alter relationships across the Middle East.
Speaker 1: Where it might become interesting. For example, is then the
Speaker 1: relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia. We've only just seen
Speaker 1: in the past year the moves to actually have diplomatic
Speaker 1: ties again between these two Middle East and powers, and
Speaker 1: it's very tentative, still pretty fragile. And does any change
Speaker 1: in leadership in Iran effect the course of that relationship,
Speaker 1: which would be very important obviously, not just for the
Speaker 1: Middle East but the rest of the world.
Speaker 3: I'm David Gura and I'm Sarah Holder.
Speaker 2: Today on the big take what's next for Iran after
Speaker 2: the death of its president and.
Speaker 3: What that means for a region already in turmoil. Ros
Speaker 3: Who was Ibrahim ray Easy?
Speaker 1: Well, he was president since the election a couple of
Speaker 1: years ago, and he came to power really because there
Speaker 1: weren't that many other candidates to take over in the election,
Speaker 1: and he was a longstanding official in Iran. He was
Speaker 1: relatively close to the Supreme Leader. He was someone who
Speaker 1: had enacted policies over the years. He was obviously also
Speaker 1: someone who was a mesh really in the upper echelons
Speaker 1: of Iranian society, but he never had the level of
Speaker 1: broad political clout that some of his predecessors did. He
Speaker 1: didn't have that grassroots resonance with the public either, and
Speaker 1: that really troubled him in his leadership because he never
Speaker 1: quite had the backing of the public. Under harmone, he
Speaker 1: was really very much in an actor of his policies
Speaker 1: versus setting his own course. He did have that strong
Speaker 1: background obviously as an Islamist in society, but he didn't
Speaker 1: have that grassroots appeal.
Speaker 3: And how would you characterize Rayesi's time as president.
Speaker 1: Well, he struggled in a number of ways. He came
Speaker 1: into power promising to fix the economy, which is of
Speaker 1: course a difficult ass when you've got an economy that's
Speaker 1: so heavily sanctioned, and he wasn't very successful in that regard.
Speaker 1: You can see in the way that the Aranian currency
Speaker 1: fell so heavily during his tenure and the fact that
Speaker 1: ordinary Iranians didn't really feel that their lot became better,
Speaker 1: and so that led to some dissent that you could
Speaker 1: see show up in sporadic protests in Iran. And he
Speaker 1: was also very much a hard liner when it came
Speaker 1: to domestic descent.
Speaker 3: Given all this, how is the contrary reacting to his death.
Speaker 1: Well, we can see that state media and semi state
Speaker 1: media are displaying lots of signs of mass mourning and
Speaker 1: going on. People out in the streets, gathering in squares
Speaker 1: carrying his photograph, beating their chess. You know, footage showing
Speaker 1: that women are at moss sobbing, students at universities out
Speaker 1: on mass distraughts. But we do know that he wasn't
Speaker 1: very popular at home, and we can see small signs
Speaker 1: that people are displaying in a way a sense of
Speaker 1: celebration at the news of his death, particularly Iranians living overseas.
Speaker 1: There were reports that people were setting off fireworks to
Speaker 1: celebrate outside Iran and certainly posting news celebrating his death
Speaker 1: and inside Iran. Hominy has declared five days of public mournings,
Speaker 1: so we can expect to see more of that, but
Speaker 1: you doubt that the majority of Iranians in the country
Speaker 1: are really that upset at this news.
Speaker 3: Raizi is set to be succeeded by Vice President Mohammed Macbear,
Speaker 3: who will then organize an election to replace him within
Speaker 3: fifty days. Walk us through what these next fifty days
Speaker 3: might look like.
Speaker 1: Well, the question is, does anyone else put their hand
Speaker 1: up to be a candidate again? Ostensibly, these are elections
Speaker 1: and people can try and become a candidate, although there
Speaker 1: are a lot of very strict rules around eligibility that
Speaker 1: would probably rule many of them out. Is does the
Speaker 1: regime allow sort of a reformist like candidate to run
Speaker 1: in the election? Do they put their weight behind Mockbhar
Speaker 1: as the anointed one from the regime, or do they
Speaker 1: allow a bit of a contest at least to sort
Speaker 1: of show to the Uranian people that they do allow
Speaker 1: that competition to happen and to encourage a bit more
Speaker 1: turnout than the last election when the turnout was very
Speaker 1: very low. But that has to be a careful exercise
Speaker 1: for the regime also because very much they want a
Speaker 1: continuity person in there, and the continuity candidate to be
Speaker 1: the next president. The question again is it Mockbear or
Speaker 1: is it someone else?
Speaker 3: And Raisie was also seen as a favorite to be
Speaker 3: next in line for Iran Supreme leader. What does his
Speaker 3: death and this election mean for succession planning?
Speaker 1: Now the biggest question is not so much the next
Speaker 1: couple of months in the election and who becomes president,
Speaker 1: because again the ultimate power is really with the Supreme Leader.
Speaker 1: The question is at what point does someone succeed leader.
Speaker 1: He is in his eighties, we know he does have
Speaker 1: some health challenges, and at some point that broader succession
Speaker 1: question is going to come up. And as you say,
Speaker 1: Racy was seen as someone who was going to be
Speaker 1: a contender for that, and the other person is how
Speaker 1: Many's son Muchdaba, and he now stands alone as the
Speaker 1: most likely successor. That would be quite awkward though for
Speaker 1: Iran in some ways because after the nineteen seventy nine
Speaker 1: revolution in Iran, the idea of dynastic leadership family members
Speaker 1: passing control to each other really became seen as anathema
Speaker 1: and something that successive leaders really touted as something they
Speaker 1: were opposed to. They do have to be generally a
Speaker 1: high ranking Islamic cleric, which that would probably put Mockbear
Speaker 1: for example, out of contention for that. But that's really
Speaker 1: going to be the broader question in the end, because
Speaker 1: whoever is the Supreme Leader really is the person setting
Speaker 1: the ultimate agenda for Iran.
Speaker 3: And if the Supreme Leader is setting that ultimate agenda,
Speaker 3: do you expect that this election for president will result
Speaker 3: in significant changes in leadership or policy?
Speaker 1: Very much unlikely in terms of policy when it comes
Speaker 1: to Iran domestically and in some measure unlikely to affect
Speaker 1: policy when it comes to some of the key foreign
Speaker 1: policy issues for Iran, most notably again the work of
Speaker 1: its proxies has bela Hamas the Huthis in the Red Sea,
Speaker 1: and certainly not the trajectory of the Israel Hamas conflict
Speaker 1: in Gaza. Where it might become interesting, for example, is
Speaker 1: in the relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia. We've only
Speaker 1: just seen in the past year the moves to actually
Speaker 1: have diplomatic ties again between these two Middle East and powers,
Speaker 1: and it's very tentative, still pretty fragile. And does any
Speaker 1: change in leadership in Iran effect the course of that relationship,
Speaker 1: which would be very important obviously not just for the
Speaker 1: Middle East but the rest of the world. Does it
Speaker 1: also change the trajectory in any way when it comes
Speaker 1: to the US, in particular the conversations that have been
Speaker 1: pretty well stalled around resuming the nuclear chord with the US.
Speaker 1: I mean, there's also the aspect of US politics and
Speaker 1: all of that with the presidential election coming up later
Speaker 1: this year, but there might be some changes there obviously
Speaker 1: policy wise for the US and those are probably the
Speaker 1: two biggest things to look out for.
Speaker 3: After the break, my co host David Gera and Bloomberg's
Speaker 3: Nick Watams discussed the wider implications of Rayeasi's death for
Speaker 3: the region and the rest of the international community.
Speaker 2: The death of President Raysi raises some critical questions about
Speaker 2: the path forward for Iran's allies and its adversaries. That's
Speaker 2: something National Security editor Nick Wadhams has been looking into
Speaker 2: what the president's death means outside of Iran. So, Nick,
Speaker 2: how involved was President Raisi in Iran's international affairs.
Speaker 4: It's actually a great question because so much of Iranian
Speaker 4: leadership is pretty opaque and the decision making structure. What
Speaker 4: is clear is that the Supreme Leader, Ayatola Kamene, really
Speaker 4: calls all the shots. The president can be a moderating
Speaker 4: or a sort of quickening factor in that some of
Speaker 4: his predecessors, for example, had been a little more moderate,
Speaker 4: had pushed for opening with the international community. But what
Speaker 4: was clear in this case was that Ibrahim Raci was
Speaker 4: really doubling down on the Supreme Leader's edict toward a
Speaker 4: more of a hardline stance.
Speaker 2: Nick, you and I last spoke last month after that
Speaker 2: unprecedented attack that Iran launched on Israel. Any sense, with
Speaker 2: now a month plus hindsight, how involved the president was
Speaker 2: in planning that, in the execution of that.
Speaker 4: That's not something really that would have run through his
Speaker 4: office in terms of the detailed planning and execution. I mean,
Speaker 4: he would have certainly signed off on it, and it
Speaker 4: would not have gone head had he not supported it.
Speaker 4: But in its current form, the Iranian government is really
Speaker 4: pretty streamlined. This is not a situation where the Iranian
Speaker 4: leadership gets into the situation room and really thrashes out
Speaker 4: thorny issues. The course has pretty much been set for
Speaker 4: several years now. It was quite clear that Iran had
Speaker 4: to respond to Israel, that they felt compelled to respond,
Speaker 4: and the debate would have only been in the details,
Speaker 4: but not in the broader strategy.
Speaker 2: Nick In the Middle East, there's been this fragile detente
Speaker 2: between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and now there's this fresh
Speaker 2: concern about what will happen to that relationship.
Speaker 4: There's so many questions around what's going to happen in
Speaker 4: Saudi Arabia because the Saudi King himself is ailing, is
Speaker 4: extremely frail, and so we're waiting to see what's happening there.
Speaker 4: I think that's going to be a situation where you
Speaker 4: see things essentially put on hold. What's clear is that
Speaker 4: Saudi Arabia and Iran had wanted some sort of off ramp,
Speaker 4: and we're pushing in direction where they did not have
Speaker 4: to be so confrontational to one another. But again, the
Speaker 4: Israel situation complicates things so much because Saudi Arabia had
Speaker 4: been very delicately nosing around this issue of normalization with Israel.
Speaker 4: In fact, normalization had seemed like it was essentially going
Speaker 4: to become a reality before October seventh happened. After that
Speaker 4: it became much more distant. But there had been these
Speaker 4: conversations between the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia on normalization.
Speaker 4: The big question now, though, is if those talks are
Speaker 4: tentatively starting to resume again, as it does appear, what
Speaker 4: does that mean for Saudi Arabia and Iran? And it
Speaker 4: would appear that the more Saudi Arabia pushes towards some
Speaker 4: form of normalization with Israel, the less chance it's going
Speaker 4: to have toward a broader reprochmount with Iran.
Speaker 2: When you look at which world leaders have expressed their condolences.
Speaker 2: I see President Putin Prime Minister Modi of India. What
Speaker 2: does that tell you about the role that President Rice
Speaker 2: he played the world stage.
Speaker 4: Well, the US has pushed Iran for so long and
Speaker 4: pushed other countries to stay away from Iran. They've sanctioned Iran,
Speaker 4: They've sanctioned companies that did business with Iran, and the
Speaker 4: result of that has been this really fascinating fracturing of
Speaker 4: the global economy where countries that the US has essentially
Speaker 4: expelled from its own economy, like Russia and to some
Speaker 4: degree with China, have really made common cause together and
Speaker 4: have found that if they do business with one another,
Speaker 4: they don't necessarily even need the United States. So Russia
Speaker 4: and Iran have in some ways gotten much closer. Iran
Speaker 4: has supplied Russia with drones for the Ukraine War. India
Speaker 4: is really a fascinating case because it's very much taken
Speaker 4: a much more non aligned approach, where it's decided, hey,
Speaker 4: we are not going to pick sides, and so you
Speaker 4: really see the limits of US leverage overseas where you
Speaker 4: have a country the US wants to make common cause
Speaker 4: with in India, and he is simply saying, no, we're
Speaker 4: going to keep up our relations, We're going to keep
Speaker 4: in touch, and it's really shown a great test for
Speaker 4: the United States. President Biden threw a state dinner for
Speaker 4: Prime Minister Modi, and he's just saying, no, we're going
Speaker 4: to keep our own foreign relations, We're going to keep
Speaker 4: contact with Iran, and there's nothing you can do about it.
Speaker 2: On Monday afternoon, White House Advisor John Kirby addressed President
Speaker 2: Rayesi's death during a press briefing President Race.
Speaker 5: He was responsible for atrocious human rights in his own country,
Speaker 5: the arrest and the physical violence against hundreds of protesters,
Speaker 5: No question, this was a man who had a lot
Speaker 5: of blood on his hands. That said, as in any
Speaker 5: other case, we certainly regret in general the loss of
Speaker 5: life and offered official condolences as appropriate.
Speaker 2: Nick there are the geopolitical implications, and then there's the
Speaker 2: economic and the market fallout. Wasn't much market movement right
Speaker 2: after this crash, and I wonder what your sense is
Speaker 2: of how President Ris's death could affect the global oil market.
Speaker 4: So I think the message you're seeing there is a
Speaker 4: sense that for all of the political upheaval and the
Speaker 4: questions people have around that death and the surprise, the
Speaker 4: shock of the Iranian president being killed in this helicopter crash.
Speaker 4: There is not actually an expectation that it would lead
Speaker 4: to major policy changes in Iran. Given the dominance of
Speaker 4: the Supreme Leader, the control he has over Iran's direction,
Speaker 4: the belief is that actually Iran will not make significant
Speaker 4: changes in terms of its energy policies, in terms of
Speaker 4: its political policies, its policies on the national security front.
Speaker 4: And you see the same with Saudi Arabia. The king's
Speaker 4: health has been failing for some time. The Crown Prince
Speaker 4: has so much control. The feeling is that actually these changes,
Speaker 4: which seem from the outside like upheavals, will not actually
Speaker 4: change the course of travel for either of those countries
Speaker 4: all that much.
Speaker 2: So there's going to be the election in the coming
Speaker 2: months around Supreme Leader made that announcement on Monday. He
Speaker 2: also said there's going to be a period of morning.
Speaker 2: What is the international community going to be watching for
Speaker 2: until that election? A couple things that will be really
Speaker 2: interesting to track. One is what will Iran's stance be
Speaker 2: toward the international community. So is this a possibility remote
Speaker 2: as it may seem now for some sort of reprochmode
Speaker 2: with the West. Is there an opening here to continue
Speaker 2: some of the back channel conversations toward potentially easing concerns
Speaker 2: around Iran's nuclear program. Is there a window here where
Speaker 2: you could seize this moment and say, Okay, we can
Speaker 2: come to some sort of agreement, or will it be
Speaker 2: just exactly the opposite, a moment where Iran will not
Speaker 2: want to let its adversaries such as the US and
Speaker 2: Israel exploit a period that may be seen as a
Speaker 2: period of real instability and vulnerability, and they're just going
Speaker 2: to double down and clam up and not have any
Speaker 2: interaction with the outside world. Those interactions and those diplomatic
Speaker 2: conversations tend to happen in see secrecy anyhow, so they
Speaker 2: can be tough to track.
Speaker 4: But what we're really looking for right now, is there
Speaker 4: going to be a sort of bunker mentality in Iran
Speaker 4: where all contact essentially with the outside world is cut
Speaker 4: until they get through these elections. Or do we see
Speaker 4: a moment where there actually is some outreach and conversation
Speaker 4: that could lead to an easing of tensions in the future.
Speaker 2: This is the big take from Bloomberg News I'm David.
Speaker 3: Gera and I'm Sarah Holder. This episode was produced by
Speaker 3: David Fox, Thomas Lou, Julia Press, and Audriana Tapia, who
Speaker 3: also fact checked this episode. It was mixed by Blake Maples.
Speaker 2: Our senior producers are Kim Gittleson and Naomi Shavin. Our
Speaker 2: senior editor is Elizabeth Ponso. Nicole Beemster Borr is our
Speaker 2: executive producer and she edited this episode. Sage Bauman is
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