WEBVTT - TechStuff Predicts 2015 0:00:04.200 --> 0:00:12.120 Get in touch with technology with Text Stuff from Hey there, 0:00:12.200 --> 0:00:16.680 and welcome to Text Stuff. I'm Jonathan Strickland, and today 0:00:17.120 --> 0:00:20.520 I am joined by a special guest, the busiest man 0:00:20.560 --> 0:00:24.759 in podcasting, Mr Tom Merritt. Hi, Tom, Hey John. How's 0:00:24.760 --> 0:00:29.600 it going man? It's going great, Thomas, it's fantastic. Um, 0:00:30.000 --> 0:00:33.440 I'm gonna call me if you call me John Thomas, 0:00:33.520 --> 0:00:39.479 that's fine, totally fair. Well, make up the it's the 0:00:39.520 --> 0:00:42.720 conservation of syllables. Yes, we have to. We have to 0:00:42.800 --> 0:00:46.440 maintain that balance. If we end up dropping in a 0:00:46.560 --> 0:00:48.800 then obviously people are going to realize the quality of 0:00:48.840 --> 0:00:50.760 the audios. And they can't see that we're both wearing 0:00:50.760 --> 0:00:53.280 white Thai Texas, so they don't know how formal we 0:00:53.360 --> 0:00:58.680 really are. Right, We've actually decided that normally we would 0:00:58.720 --> 0:01:03.080 only communicate through our servants, but we we've given them 0:01:03.080 --> 0:01:08.560 some time off. Yes, well, uh, tom Merritt. For those 0:01:08.560 --> 0:01:12.440 of you who who may not know hosts about every 0:01:12.440 --> 0:01:17.880 other podcast, that's not how Stuff Works. I think I 0:01:17.920 --> 0:01:20.280 think How Stuff Works and Serial are the only two 0:01:20.319 --> 0:01:30.160 you're not doing. So yeah, yeah, So I mean come on, well, unfortunately, 0:01:30.280 --> 0:01:32.800 this this episode will air well after everyone's had a 0:01:32.920 --> 0:01:36.680 chance to listen to that, although I have not. Tom, 0:01:36.760 --> 0:01:39.280 you are the host of numerous shows, as I said, 0:01:39.319 --> 0:01:43.800 including Daily Tech News Show, a phenomenal show. If you 0:01:43.880 --> 0:01:46.760 want to know what is going on in technology on 0:01:46.800 --> 0:01:49.680 a day to day basis, you gotta go check that 0:01:49.720 --> 0:01:53.160 one out. Highly recommended. I've even been a host a 0:01:53.160 --> 0:01:57.880 few times on that show. It's been hooray. I love 0:01:58.000 --> 0:02:01.120 doing it. And I've asked Tom here to do the 0:02:01.160 --> 0:02:03.960 one thing in the world that I look forward to 0:02:04.000 --> 0:02:08.400 the most every single year, which is the end of 0:02:08.400 --> 0:02:10.720 the year, beginning of the year predictions for the next 0:02:10.720 --> 0:02:14.360 twelve months. But instead of sticking my neck out or 0:02:14.400 --> 0:02:19.040 having Tom stick his neck out making ridiculous predictions for 0:02:19.120 --> 0:02:23.080 what's gonna happen in two thousand fifteen, we decided we 0:02:23.080 --> 0:02:26.320 were going to look at other people's predictions and then 0:02:26.600 --> 0:02:29.080 way in uh with our opinion about whether or not 0:02:29.160 --> 0:02:33.280 we agree with those predictions, or maybe maybe we conditionally 0:02:33.320 --> 0:02:36.960 agree something like that, And we've picked a whole bunch 0:02:37.040 --> 0:02:38.960 of them to go through. I have put on a 0:02:39.000 --> 0:02:43.200 powdered wig to sit in judgment over these predictions. I 0:02:43.200 --> 0:02:47.959 I have my scrying glass here. Um it's uh, it's 0:02:47.960 --> 0:02:51.760 actually a Palin Beer. It's not quite the Palantine. You know. 0:02:51.760 --> 0:02:53.960 I've always said, Jonathan, that you know all there is 0:02:54.000 --> 0:02:58.240 to know about the scrying game. This is true. You 0:02:58.320 --> 0:03:01.000 have said that. All right. So we're gonna start with 0:03:01.120 --> 0:03:05.960 some Samsung predictions that The Verge published, and these are 0:03:06.320 --> 0:03:09.280 the ones that that I thought would be kind of 0:03:09.320 --> 0:03:12.320 fun to begin with. The first one is that wearable 0:03:12.360 --> 0:03:15.920 technology is going to create a new era of power 0:03:16.080 --> 0:03:20.520 dressing for business leaders. So a a smart watch or 0:03:20.600 --> 0:03:23.520 other wearable device is now going to be seen as 0:03:23.520 --> 0:03:26.240 a status symbol. You're gonna be able to tell how 0:03:26.280 --> 0:03:32.840 important an executive is by the type of smart accessories 0:03:32.840 --> 0:03:35.320 they're wearing. I guess where do you? Where do you 0:03:35.360 --> 0:03:37.760 come in on this? Tom? So this is a prediction 0:03:37.840 --> 0:03:40.960 coming from Samsung, right, Yes, yeah, this is a fairly 0:03:41.040 --> 0:03:45.200 aspirational prediction, don't you think? I agree? I feel like 0:03:45.240 --> 0:03:47.920 Samson is trying to accept this into the mind of 0:03:47.960 --> 0:03:51.280 business leaders, like you'll need a gear watch if you 0:03:51.320 --> 0:03:53.440 want to be seen as powerful, which sometimes that's the 0:03:53.440 --> 0:03:58.240 way it works. I think if anybody makes that happen, 0:03:58.280 --> 0:03:59.960 it's going to be Apple. They're the ones trying to 0:04:00.080 --> 0:04:02.720 push the fashion end of this a lot harder. I agree. 0:04:02.880 --> 0:04:05.560 I think obviously, Sam Sung, I mean, all of Sam 0:04:05.560 --> 0:04:09.680 Suck's predictions are going to have that sort of of bias, 0:04:09.760 --> 0:04:12.480 if you will. You know, obviously it's it's how they 0:04:12.560 --> 0:04:15.040 want things to go because it's going to be where 0:04:15.120 --> 0:04:18.920 their businesses will be successful. So there's nothing wrong with that. 0:04:19.160 --> 0:04:21.880 And you know, there is something to say about drumming 0:04:21.960 --> 0:04:25.200 up enthusiasm for something that you have an interest in. 0:04:25.880 --> 0:04:28.160 I just I just don't know that there's been anything 0:04:28.200 --> 0:04:30.560 out yet that is really going to catch on. And 0:04:30.600 --> 0:04:33.440 I mean I say that as someone who owns a 0:04:33.480 --> 0:04:36.520 smart watch, and I've got a couple of other independent 0:04:36.560 --> 0:04:41.360 smart watches that I backed on various crowdfunding campaigns that 0:04:41.920 --> 0:04:46.200 we'll supposedly get to me it's some day. But I'm 0:04:46.240 --> 0:04:49.560 an early adopter type. I don't know that we're going 0:04:49.600 --> 0:04:55.120 to see high powered executives, you know, casually pulling their 0:04:55.120 --> 0:04:58.160 sleeves back to show off their smart accessory at every 0:04:58.160 --> 0:05:02.600 given opportunity without being mocked. Yeah, that's it's actually been. 0:05:02.640 --> 0:05:04.599 One of the things that Apple addressed when they announced 0:05:04.600 --> 0:05:08.799 the Apple Watch was the fact that watches haven't looked 0:05:08.800 --> 0:05:11.120 to that good and and that That's not to say 0:05:11.120 --> 0:05:15.039 that I am judging that Apple solve that problem or not, um, 0:05:15.080 --> 0:05:17.400 but that is that is the issue. Is they have 0:05:17.520 --> 0:05:22.599 to get that tag heure Rolex crowd to decide that 0:05:22.680 --> 0:05:24.440 they want to smart watch if they really want to 0:05:24.440 --> 0:05:26.719 get into the high dollar item game of this. Maybe 0:05:26.720 --> 0:05:29.000 this is Samsung tip in their hand a little huh, 0:05:29.240 --> 0:05:33.240 saying we will be coming with the Rolex of smart 0:05:33.240 --> 0:05:35.600 watches this year. Well, we'll have to keep an eye 0:05:35.640 --> 0:05:38.560 out and see. I I like you, Tom, I am 0:05:38.600 --> 0:05:41.159 a little skeptical of this one. So their next one 0:05:41.839 --> 0:05:46.200 is that people will restructure their working lives around personal 0:05:46.400 --> 0:05:50.960 power hours as technology reveals peak performance times. So this 0:05:51.040 --> 0:05:54.480 is this seems to say, as we're using these devices, 0:05:54.800 --> 0:05:57.880 they give us real time feedback on what is going 0:05:57.920 --> 0:06:01.400 on with our bodies, our heart rates. That way, you 0:06:01.400 --> 0:06:04.200 will start to see the peaks and troughs of our 0:06:04.240 --> 0:06:07.680 activity and when we are most effective, and that we 0:06:07.720 --> 0:06:12.280 will magically restructure our days so that they match those 0:06:12.360 --> 0:06:15.880 peaks and troughs and we avoid everything else, which I 0:06:15.880 --> 0:06:20.160 think sounds amazing, But I'm not sure that corporate America 0:06:20.360 --> 0:06:25.160 is ready to two go that route. Yeah, I can't 0:06:25.200 --> 0:06:27.880 see the excuse. Oh, I'm sorry, I can't have a meeting. 0:06:27.880 --> 0:06:32.720 Then it's not during my power hours going down very well. 0:06:33.040 --> 0:06:36.000 This one, at least is less directly related to a 0:06:36.080 --> 0:06:38.600 Samsung product, right, This is a general like Samsung is 0:06:38.640 --> 0:06:41.520 great with productivity, and so you know, this is the 0:06:41.640 --> 0:06:43.760 kind of thing you'll be able to get. I'm totally 0:06:43.760 --> 0:06:46.359 cool with this one. I just don't think it's gonna 0:06:46.400 --> 0:06:48.880 be true. I mean, I would like the idea of 0:06:48.920 --> 0:06:51.240 them telling me like, hey, you're gonna you're most productive. 0:06:51.279 --> 0:06:54.360 We've analyzed your personal data and you're most productive at 0:06:54.400 --> 0:06:56.440 these times of days. That'd be kind of cool. I 0:06:56.560 --> 0:07:01.240 just don't see that becoming a common track. And yeah, 0:07:01.279 --> 0:07:04.320 I'm lucky in that I work for a company where 0:07:04.880 --> 0:07:08.719 they are very flexible with the way we do our work. 0:07:09.000 --> 0:07:12.040 So I come in super early because I tend to 0:07:12.040 --> 0:07:15.600 be I'm one of those people. I'm most effective first 0:07:15.640 --> 0:07:18.480 thing in the morning, and so I also tend to 0:07:18.520 --> 0:07:21.480 stay late. But if I could leave earlier, if I 0:07:21.520 --> 0:07:24.320 so chose, I just tend to have other things going 0:07:24.360 --> 0:07:27.679 on in the office, like recording episodes of tech stuff stuff. 0:07:28.360 --> 0:07:33.000 Yeah no, no, no, this is not for me, not 0:07:33.080 --> 0:07:35.880 unusual for me. But yeah, I don't. I don't see 0:07:35.920 --> 0:07:38.440 this as being something that easily gets gets rolled out. 0:07:38.560 --> 0:07:42.280 Maybe it's something we'll see happened in the United States 0:07:42.280 --> 0:07:44.880 over time. I mean, certainly in Europe they have very 0:07:44.960 --> 0:07:49.440 different approaches to the work day. But it may be 0:07:49.640 --> 0:07:52.880 that that it'll still take some time for that to 0:07:52.960 --> 0:07:57.000 come over to North America. Um. They also said that 0:07:57.120 --> 0:08:01.080 virtual reality technology and innovative you of displays will lead 0:08:01.120 --> 0:08:04.720 to a new generation of digital shops, allowing retailers to 0:08:04.840 --> 0:08:09.360 overcome space constraints and high rent. So I guess this 0:08:09.400 --> 0:08:11.520 would be where you'd go to a mall, except the 0:08:11.560 --> 0:08:14.280 mall is a kiosk with a head mounted display and 0:08:14.320 --> 0:08:16.400 you put that on and then you just virtually walk 0:08:16.480 --> 0:08:19.480 through all the stores, and the gear VR will be 0:08:19.520 --> 0:08:22.920 the way to do it. Um. You know, I'm actually 0:08:22.960 --> 0:08:25.000 with them right up until they say a new generation 0:08:25.040 --> 0:08:28.160 of digital shops. I could totally see as as things 0:08:28.160 --> 0:08:31.280 like the gear VR and the Oculus Rift and Sony's 0:08:31.320 --> 0:08:34.800 Morpheus Project Morpheus come around and and and this seems 0:08:34.840 --> 0:08:37.360 to be is the year will see the first of 0:08:37.400 --> 0:08:42.240 these really hit retail that. Um. They Yeah, there will 0:08:42.280 --> 0:08:44.360 be digital shops and we'll be able to walk around 0:08:44.400 --> 0:08:47.960 the shop. Whether that will actually allow retailers to overcome 0:08:47.960 --> 0:08:51.160 space constraints and high rent that seems more of a stretch. Well, 0:08:51.200 --> 0:08:55.040 they still have to have the inventory somewhere right right right. 0:08:55.320 --> 0:08:57.520 I mean I can see it taking a business that 0:08:57.679 --> 0:09:01.080 might have been stu I mean by the fact that 0:09:01.120 --> 0:09:04.280 they really can't afford the shop front that they need 0:09:04.600 --> 0:09:07.679 open a digital shop instead. In that case, yeah, they 0:09:07.679 --> 0:09:11.080 would overcome space constraints. But I don't Yeah, I don't 0:09:11.080 --> 0:09:15.559 see the mall Kiosks suddenly becoming a huge showroom. Yeah. 0:09:15.679 --> 0:09:21.680 I also worry about, um, the the disorientation factor because 0:09:22.880 --> 0:09:25.360 I've played with the Oculus Rift for a while and 0:09:25.400 --> 0:09:27.040 I'm not sure I want to go to a mall 0:09:27.160 --> 0:09:31.800 that's just coded and vomit um. I mean, it's not 0:09:31.880 --> 0:09:34.680 my scene. Hey, you know, we'll not judge, but I'm 0:09:34.679 --> 0:09:38.800 with you not my not my scene either. Uh yeah, 0:09:38.840 --> 0:09:41.440 And maybe I'm just maybe I've just reached that age, Tom, 0:09:42.800 --> 0:09:46.480 I've just always loved the vomit covered mall. Well, I 0:09:46.520 --> 0:09:49.680 was thinking more about being being able to to adjust 0:09:49.760 --> 0:09:53.160 to the disorientation of the Oculus Rift. But sure, let's 0:09:53.160 --> 0:09:57.640 go back, all right. Well, they also said that automated 0:09:57.679 --> 0:10:00.440 home systems will move from geek to sheet driven by 0:10:00.440 --> 0:10:04.480 a dramatically improved user experience. This is one I really 0:10:04.640 --> 0:10:08.800 can get behind because we've been seeing the progression of 0:10:08.840 --> 0:10:12.520 this with stuff like Nest, despite their their smoke detector 0:10:12.720 --> 0:10:16.280 problems that they had in two thousand fourteen, we've seen 0:10:16.679 --> 0:10:19.360 these sort of systems that are starting to get more 0:10:19.360 --> 0:10:23.680 and more interconnected, become more user friendly, easier to install, 0:10:23.800 --> 0:10:27.960 more attractive, and less of the Jerry Riggs systems that 0:10:28.120 --> 0:10:32.440 a lot of geeks were using the bleeding edge adapter 0:10:32.640 --> 0:10:36.079 adopters rather and uh so I actually agree with this one. 0:10:36.080 --> 0:10:38.360 I think we will see a lot more automated home 0:10:38.400 --> 0:10:42.439 systems enter into the mainstream. Yeah, this is one that 0:10:42.480 --> 0:10:44.880 you could easily dismiss his self share of incause Samsung 0:10:44.960 --> 0:10:49.079 Smart Home exists, But I think that doesn't matter. I 0:10:49.120 --> 0:10:52.719 think they're totally right. Maybe geek Tschika is overstating at 0:10:52.720 --> 0:10:55.760 a touch, but yeah, I'm with you. I think automated 0:10:55.760 --> 0:10:58.280 home systems this year will come into their own and 0:10:58.320 --> 0:11:01.280 we'll see, like you say, the like Nest become even 0:11:01.280 --> 0:11:04.600 more popular, more competitors for that, and more people who 0:11:04.640 --> 0:11:07.800 aren't on the bleeding edge, uh, saying oh, yeah, I 0:11:07.880 --> 0:11:10.839 think I might try out one of those smart lightbulbs, 0:11:10.920 --> 0:11:15.400 slash thermostats, slash smoke alarms, etcetera. Yeah, I think it's 0:11:15.480 --> 0:11:17.400 kind of the way I see it as I see 0:11:17.440 --> 0:11:21.120 the automated home system year of two thousand fifteen be 0:11:21.280 --> 0:11:24.400 kind of like the fitness wearable of two thousand fourteen, 0:11:25.080 --> 0:11:28.080 where we saw two thousand fourteen we saw numbers double 0:11:28.720 --> 0:11:33.840 in in fitness adoption wearable adoption, but it was still 0:11:34.000 --> 0:11:38.000 it's still relatively small compared to the overall consumer market, 0:11:38.320 --> 0:11:40.959 but it shows a trend of growth. So I think 0:11:41.000 --> 0:11:43.319 that's what we're gonna see. Definitely with you on that one. 0:11:43.720 --> 0:11:46.240 And then I love this one. I don't know that 0:11:46.280 --> 0:11:49.120 I agree with it, particularly living in the state of Georgia, 0:11:49.200 --> 0:11:51.920 but every child born the next twelve months will learn 0:11:52.000 --> 0:11:57.120 coding as a core subject alongside numeracy and literacy. Did 0:11:57.120 --> 0:12:04.440 you say codeine ding programming? Yeah? Yeah, not no, no, 0:12:04.520 --> 0:12:08.000 not not opiates. That's good. That's good because I would 0:12:08.000 --> 0:12:10.320 totally disagree with that one. This one, you know, it 0:12:10.360 --> 0:12:12.800 throws you off the way they phrased it here where 0:12:12.800 --> 0:12:14.800 they say, like every child born in the next twelve 0:12:14.840 --> 0:12:17.480 months will learn coding. You gotta keep reading because it's like, no, 0:12:17.559 --> 0:12:21.480 they won't, little baby Pappy learning right, right. But what 0:12:21.520 --> 0:12:23.760 they're saying is as they grow up over the next 0:12:23.800 --> 0:12:27.040 twelve to thirteen years, coding will become a course subject. 0:12:27.080 --> 0:12:29.160 And I kind of think they're right about this. You 0:12:29.200 --> 0:12:32.080 know that. The nice thing about this prediction for them 0:12:32.280 --> 0:12:34.640 is that's going to take a while before they're proven 0:12:34.720 --> 0:12:38.240 right or wrong. Yeah, it's a clever way to do right. 0:12:38.360 --> 0:12:41.120 You're saying, the baby is born this year will and 0:12:41.200 --> 0:12:45.319 now a prediction that will take twelve years to prove through. Yeah, yeah, So, 0:12:45.559 --> 0:12:48.880 uh look cool. I like that you're optimistic about this. 0:12:48.920 --> 0:12:52.439 I'm a little more pessimistic simply because I see so 0:12:52.480 --> 0:12:56.520 many issues with the various school programs that are already 0:12:56.520 --> 0:12:59.559 in existence. I do think cod coding is a very 0:13:00.000 --> 0:13:02.440 Porton's skill set to to learn. It's something that I 0:13:02.520 --> 0:13:06.520 learned on my own, and even then it was very limited. 0:13:06.520 --> 0:13:10.199 I mean I was working in Apple Basic at the time. Um, 0:13:10.320 --> 0:13:13.400 so it's one of those things I think definitely needs 0:13:13.440 --> 0:13:16.400 to be taught. If you talk to computer scientists professors, 0:13:17.120 --> 0:13:21.720 they always mentioned about how incoming classes coming into the 0:13:21.880 --> 0:13:26.240 freshman level computer science courses have little to no experience 0:13:26.800 --> 0:13:30.079 encoding usually at the college level, and that it's very 0:13:30.160 --> 0:13:32.000 I mean, that's the reason why we see things like 0:13:32.000 --> 0:13:34.920 the Raspberry Pie coming out like it was supposed to 0:13:34.920 --> 0:13:38.400 be an inexpensive way to help young kids learn and 0:13:38.800 --> 0:13:45.920 get interested in programming. So I certainly many programs and 0:13:46.240 --> 0:13:48.640 I don't mean the pun in that case, uh, that 0:13:48.720 --> 0:13:53.480 are trying to encourage education to pick up programming and 0:13:53.559 --> 0:13:56.880 coding as as something that they need to teach that 0:13:56.960 --> 0:14:00.080 I feel like over the time scale they're saying, which is, 0:14:00.520 --> 0:14:03.520 you know, children born next year will grow up into 0:14:03.520 --> 0:14:06.080 a world where it becomes that that it's almost inevitable 0:14:06.120 --> 0:14:09.080 to me. But I also see where you're coming from, John, 0:14:09.440 --> 0:14:15.200 nothing where it actually uh it actually is going to 0:14:15.240 --> 0:14:19.240 take a lot to get it there. Um, there's my 0:14:19.240 --> 0:14:21.520 My my belief in the prediction is because there just 0:14:21.520 --> 0:14:24.920 seems to be an overwhelming force pushing for it. But 0:14:25.000 --> 0:14:27.160 it's not gonna happen next year. It's not even gonna 0:14:27.160 --> 0:14:29.280 happen the year after that. It's gonna it's gonna take 0:14:29.320 --> 0:14:31.960 that force to continue to build up and and people 0:14:32.040 --> 0:14:34.880 starting to see the benefits of it directly and and 0:14:34.920 --> 0:14:37.240 all of that. So yeah, it's gonna take probably five 0:14:37.280 --> 0:14:40.240 to ten years before it actually happens. But then that 0:14:40.360 --> 0:14:43.240 still works with this predict right, I mean, yeah, this 0:14:43.360 --> 0:14:45.560 is that, And you make a really good point. Plus 0:14:45.760 --> 0:14:48.200 things that I didn't even consider, things that will probably 0:14:48.200 --> 0:14:50.600 talk about a little bit later in this episode, uh, 0:14:50.760 --> 0:14:55.120 that have unfolded also create a real impetus to teaching 0:14:55.640 --> 0:14:59.280 people how to code things like security breaches, where we're 0:14:59.320 --> 0:15:02.800 going to knee a new generation of people thinking about 0:15:02.840 --> 0:15:05.680 security in a new way to protect the data that 0:15:05.720 --> 0:15:08.440 we have. I mean, two thousand fourteen was the year 0:15:08.600 --> 0:15:12.480 of the security breach. We had so many eBay you had, 0:15:12.560 --> 0:15:17.080 you had target yet Kmart, you had mount Gox getting destroyed. 0:15:17.560 --> 0:15:23.360 I mean it was entertainment and timely picture. Yes, yes, 0:15:24.160 --> 0:15:26.640 so this is definitely something I could I could see 0:15:26.640 --> 0:15:31.520 as being a real, a real incentive to try and 0:15:31.600 --> 0:15:36.200 get coding into schools more more universally. So all right, 0:15:36.400 --> 0:15:38.920 I'm coming around to that one. Well, I've I've got 0:15:38.960 --> 0:15:44.040 some other predictions here. Here's some from the street dot com. 0:15:44.080 --> 0:15:47.840 And the first one is kind of interesting that Facebook 0:15:48.200 --> 0:15:51.320 in sometime in two thousand fifteen will come out with 0:15:51.400 --> 0:15:55.400 a Facebook for Work campaign, which would make it more 0:15:55.400 --> 0:15:59.000 of a competitor to LinkedIn, and it would incorporate things 0:15:59.040 --> 0:16:03.120 that Facebook's already worked with, things like instant messaging or 0:16:03.160 --> 0:16:05.840 maybe even bringing back some of the Facebook email stuff 0:16:05.880 --> 0:16:09.360 they experimented with earlier, and that it would also include 0:16:09.400 --> 0:16:13.600 probably some form of productivity, cloud based software, you know, 0:16:13.720 --> 0:16:18.280 doc sharing, collaboration. And so the thought here is that Facebook, 0:16:18.280 --> 0:16:21.400 in order to grow, uh, you know once once you 0:16:21.440 --> 0:16:24.479 hit a billion users, it's it's hard to find those opportunities, 0:16:24.800 --> 0:16:27.680 is really going to aim at the enterprise level to 0:16:27.760 --> 0:16:33.520 create something that specifically allows companies to work together. But 0:16:33.680 --> 0:16:39.479 in the Facebook realm, do you agree with that? I 0:16:39.520 --> 0:16:45.400 think it is almost a hud certain that Facebook has 0:16:46.040 --> 0:16:49.360 at least one project underway exploring this, and probably multiple 0:16:49.400 --> 0:16:53.640 projects exploring this. When there's a lot of you know, 0:16:53.720 --> 0:16:58.680 Microsoft Bot Yamur long time ago, LinkedIn is extremely popular. 0:16:58.960 --> 0:17:02.240 There's a lot of case studies to show that social 0:17:02.280 --> 0:17:04.439 networks in the workplace, you know, are helpful in this 0:17:04.520 --> 0:17:06.320 in that way. And I can't believe that Facebook wouldn't 0:17:06.320 --> 0:17:10.160 be exploring this. It's a different matter of whether they 0:17:10.200 --> 0:17:12.320 will get it to the point where they say, yes, 0:17:12.359 --> 0:17:14.720 we've got a product that we're gonna we're gonna launch 0:17:14.800 --> 0:17:17.600 this year. The one thing that I think people forget though, 0:17:17.640 --> 0:17:19.520 which might make you think, I don't know if Facebook 0:17:19.560 --> 0:17:21.440 is gonna want to do this? Would work? Places want 0:17:21.440 --> 0:17:24.600 to be associated with the Facebook name because it's you know, 0:17:24.640 --> 0:17:29.160 it's got all of this baggage about personal sharing and privacy, etcetera. 0:17:29.720 --> 0:17:33.639 Facebook is now lots of other companies, you know, the 0:17:33.680 --> 0:17:36.520 most prominent being Instagram, but they own lots of other 0:17:36.560 --> 0:17:40.120 projects like paper that they launched that uses Facebook more 0:17:40.119 --> 0:17:42.879 as a back end for something. I could see them 0:17:42.920 --> 0:17:47.160 basically creating a startup within Facebook that's not called Facebook, 0:17:47.200 --> 0:17:50.480 doesn't market themselves as Facebook, that does this. That seems 0:17:50.520 --> 0:17:53.960 to be the most likely way that this happens. I agree. 0:17:54.000 --> 0:17:56.879 I think that if they position themselves in such a 0:17:56.880 --> 0:17:59.680 way where it's not you know, not Facebook for work, 0:18:00.160 --> 0:18:02.639 which and I don't mean to suggest that the street 0:18:02.680 --> 0:18:05.399 dot com feels like that would be the name of 0:18:05.400 --> 0:18:07.399 the service. Obviously they had to call it something for 0:18:07.440 --> 0:18:10.200 their prediction, but I agree. I think if they marketed 0:18:10.680 --> 0:18:13.880 a different way, but use the Facebook back end as 0:18:13.920 --> 0:18:16.920 the platform upon which all this was built, it makes 0:18:16.960 --> 0:18:21.600 perfect sense. Um, it is an untapped market for Facebook, 0:18:21.720 --> 0:18:24.119 apart from I mean, you could argue that Pages is 0:18:24.240 --> 0:18:27.040 kind of them dipping their toe in that, but that's 0:18:27.080 --> 0:18:30.160 a different That's a forward facing, a customer facing approach 0:18:30.200 --> 0:18:33.840 as opposed to something that allows companies to do the 0:18:33.880 --> 0:18:38.199 work they need to do, uh internally. So yeah, I 0:18:38.240 --> 0:18:40.080 agree with that one. To the next one, I'm not 0:18:40.160 --> 0:18:42.320 so sure about. I go back and forth on it. 0:18:42.880 --> 0:18:46.520 Amazon is going to get there, gosh darn delivery drones 0:18:46.560 --> 0:18:48.560 in the air before the end of two thousands, get 0:18:48.560 --> 0:18:52.840 their drone on. Yeah, that was the prediction they went 0:18:52.920 --> 0:18:54.679 They went on to say that they felt that the 0:18:54.760 --> 0:18:58.040 f a A and Congress would be under intense pressure 0:18:58.560 --> 0:19:02.000 to allow this to happen, and that that alone would 0:19:02.000 --> 0:19:06.720 be enough to propel the issue forward so that Amazon 0:19:06.720 --> 0:19:09.240 would get the clearance. A couple of companies have already 0:19:09.280 --> 0:19:12.919 received some clearance to use drones in commercial matters, but 0:19:13.000 --> 0:19:16.200 not Amazon. So the thought is that by pointing out 0:19:16.200 --> 0:19:18.760 these other cases, Amazon would be able to make a 0:19:18.880 --> 0:19:22.360 very strong argument to get their drones in the air. 0:19:22.440 --> 0:19:25.680 Do you think that is true. Do you think by 0:19:25.680 --> 0:19:28.280 the end of two thousand fifteen, the stuff that you 0:19:28.359 --> 0:19:31.199 will be ordering for the holidays for your friends and 0:19:31.240 --> 0:19:36.399 family will be delivered by drone. If I live in Sydney, Australia. Possibly, 0:19:37.600 --> 0:19:40.800 but yeah, I don't. The f a A is famously 0:19:41.040 --> 0:19:46.119 not sensitive to pressure. They're not pressure sensitive. Uh. I 0:19:46.160 --> 0:19:48.199 think I think back to how long it took to 0:19:48.240 --> 0:19:51.160 get the ability to keep your phone on during takeoff 0:19:51.720 --> 0:19:54.080 even an airplane mode. This is this is not an 0:19:54.119 --> 0:19:56.879 agency that moves fast, and they've proven that with the 0:19:56.960 --> 0:20:00.280 drone issue. Uh. And they've shown in all of the 0:20:00.280 --> 0:20:02.880 decisions they've made about the drone issue that they are 0:20:02.880 --> 0:20:06.320 going to continue to drag their feet. They wouldn't describe 0:20:06.320 --> 0:20:08.360 it that way. They would say, you know, be cautious 0:20:08.400 --> 0:20:11.320 and careful. And so no, they're they're not going to 0:20:11.480 --> 0:20:15.560 be able to fly Amazon drone shipping in the United 0:20:15.600 --> 0:20:17.240 States by the end of this year. We might have 0:20:17.280 --> 0:20:20.440 a little movement on on the approval. They might get 0:20:20.480 --> 0:20:23.520 a test site by the end of this year maybe, 0:20:23.760 --> 0:20:26.719 but as far as launching a service, absolutely no way. Now. 0:20:26.760 --> 0:20:29.120 In other countries like Australia that I mentioned, where they're 0:20:29.280 --> 0:20:32.359 they're much more open about drone testing and allowing people 0:20:32.760 --> 0:20:36.600 UH to fly this around. It's still an outside possibility, 0:20:36.640 --> 0:20:39.639 but I think at least could happen there. It's definitely 0:20:39.680 --> 0:20:42.679 not gonna happen in the US. Yeah, I have to 0:20:42.720 --> 0:20:46.600 agree with you once again. Um, I can't imagine the 0:20:46.680 --> 0:20:50.840 f a A even with the argument that other businesses 0:20:50.840 --> 0:20:53.480 are able to kind of try this out. I mean, 0:20:53.520 --> 0:20:57.200 when you look at the size of Amazon's delivery business, 0:20:58.000 --> 0:21:01.959 they just that the lot of that many drones flying 0:21:02.000 --> 0:21:04.840 through the air dropping packages, willy nilly, is enough to 0:21:04.920 --> 0:21:07.680 send most people to say, we need to be really 0:21:07.760 --> 0:21:11.280 careful and make sure this works of the time before 0:21:11.280 --> 0:21:14.679 we agree to it, because this is an incredibly huge 0:21:14.760 --> 0:21:20.560 and diverse and complicated system. So uh yeah, I will 0:21:20.600 --> 0:21:25.200 be absolutely shocked if Amazon's drone program is in the air. Uh. 0:21:25.240 --> 0:21:28.360 It also will mean that will probably by the time 0:21:28.400 --> 0:21:32.720 Amazon does get this launched. Literally, um, we're else gonna 0:21:32.720 --> 0:21:37.560 see the competing services like Google's proposed drone delivery service. 0:21:37.640 --> 0:21:39.840 So at that point we may not ever see the 0:21:39.840 --> 0:21:43.159 sky again. Yeah, that'll just be covered in drones, just 0:21:43.280 --> 0:21:47.359 covered in drones. Yeah, you you'll but you'll get your 0:21:47.359 --> 0:21:51.639 electric toothbrush on time, So that's good alright. Our next 0:21:51.680 --> 0:21:55.200 prediction was that in two thousand and fifteen, Uber will 0:21:55.240 --> 0:21:59.480 file an I p O. Uber will go public in 0:21:59.520 --> 0:22:04.280 two in fifteen. That's despite the various trials and tribulations 0:22:04.400 --> 0:22:08.840 Uber has had UH not just with trying to get 0:22:09.480 --> 0:22:12.919 UH trying to get a foothold in various markets that 0:22:12.960 --> 0:22:17.160 have resisted Uber moving in, but also the internal issues 0:22:17.200 --> 0:22:20.000 that have faced Uber. So do you think Uber is 0:22:20.040 --> 0:22:22.880 going to be able to overcome all that and go 0:22:23.040 --> 0:22:27.280 forward in declaring H or to to file an I 0:22:27.400 --> 0:22:30.280 p O. And my instinct is to say no, that 0:22:30.280 --> 0:22:32.720 that would be a bad idea. They really need to 0:22:32.760 --> 0:22:36.639 focus on their public image, etcetera, etcetera. But two things 0:22:36.720 --> 0:22:39.560 make me think that I'm wrong in having that impulse. 0:22:39.680 --> 0:22:42.360 One is, whenever I think that about a company going 0:22:42.400 --> 0:22:44.640 I p O, they always go ip O anyway, because 0:22:44.680 --> 0:22:46.800 the reason they put out their stock has nothing to 0:22:46.840 --> 0:22:50.080 do with my instincts. They usually have some other, much 0:22:50.080 --> 0:22:53.320 more arcane financial calculation that shows them that it is 0:22:53.320 --> 0:22:55.120 the right time. And the other thing I would say 0:22:55.200 --> 0:22:59.159 is the folks at Uber don't really seem to mind 0:22:59.320 --> 0:23:01.840 if people have a perception of them that they don't 0:23:01.840 --> 0:23:03.920 agree with. They go ahead and do what they want anyway. 0:23:04.640 --> 0:23:08.160 Like operating their service in places that have declared it illegal, 0:23:08.240 --> 0:23:11.760 for instance. So yeah, I think it's probably like that 0:23:11.880 --> 0:23:13.840 if Uber thinks it's the right time to I p 0:23:14.000 --> 0:23:16.200 O the l I p O this year. Now I've 0:23:16.200 --> 0:23:19.040 got another related question this, This doesn't have to do 0:23:19.080 --> 0:23:21.280