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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast podcasts.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second spot.

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Speaker 3: Hello and welcome to the Action Network podcast the UFC

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Speaker 3: Betting Preview. I'm Sean Zerilo, joined today by Billy Word

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Speaker 3: to help you break down the thirteen fight card in

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Speaker 3: the UFC Apex for Saturday, March fifteenth. Give me your

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Speaker 3: best bets, favorite underdogs, top props and more. And if

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Speaker 3: you'd like to tell some of the bets that we

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Speaker 3: discuss on today's show. Make sure to find the quick

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Speaker 3: slip links in both the podcasts and video descriptions, or

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Speaker 3: go to actionnetwork dot com slash bet now and find

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Speaker 3: those links for the quick slips and a thirteen fight

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Speaker 3: card at the UFC Apex. Seven prelimbs inning at four

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Speaker 3: pm Eastern, six fight main card at seven pm Eastern.

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Speaker 3: The main event a rematch between Marvin Vittori and Roman Deledze.

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Speaker 3: Vittoria around minus one sixty de leeds A around plus

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Speaker 3: one thirty five middleweight bout lined about minus two hundred

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Speaker 3: to reach a decision. As I said, this is a

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Speaker 3: rematch from UFC two to eighty six in March of

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty three, but Torri closed minus two fifty in

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Speaker 3: a three round fight. That fight was about a similar

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Speaker 3: price to go to a decision, roughly minus one eighty.

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Speaker 3: Butry ultimately won a twenty nine to twenty eight unanimous decision.

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Speaker 3: But looking back, half the media scorecards had it for Deleds.

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Speaker 3: Two of the media members had a thirty twenty seven Deleds,

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Speaker 3: a one had it thirty twenty seven for victory, and

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Speaker 3: fifty eight percent of fans scorecards had it for Deleds

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Speaker 3: as well. So despite the unanimous decision, was much closer

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Speaker 3: than the actual final results indicated now. Butry did land

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Speaker 3: more significant strikes and more head strikes in each round.

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Speaker 2: Of the fight.

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Speaker 3: Deleds landed the most significant strike of the first round,

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Speaker 3: and I guess some judges, some fans thought that, or

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Speaker 3: some media judges and some fans thought that he landed

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Speaker 3: the more impactful strikes in the second and third rounds

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Speaker 3: as well. Does carry more power, has more submission upside.

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Speaker 3: But in the first time I previewed this fight, I

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Speaker 3: said that Vittori was one of the more difficult matchups

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Speaker 3: for Delise at the top of the division, and I

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Speaker 3: think that gets even worse for him in a five

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Speaker 3: round fight, just because Victory super durable generally is not

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Speaker 3: come close to getting submitted, but he also has excellent cardio,

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Speaker 3: and over the course of twenty five minutes, Delise should

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Speaker 3: fade getting into the championship rounds, but Tory should potentially

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Speaker 3: pick up the pace getting into the championship rounds, especially

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Speaker 3: because of the Tory coming off of shoulder surgery here

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Speaker 3: may see some k rust early on in the fight,

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Speaker 3: probably loses the early minutes, and then I think Victory

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Speaker 3: probably worth a live bet after round one, after round two,

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Speaker 3: maybe even after round three as well, if his price improves.

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Speaker 3: If he's down two to one, were potentially up to

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Speaker 3: one going into round four, may get the same line

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Speaker 3: as this pre fight price, So Victory live probably the

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Speaker 3: best angle for me. I also like the fight to

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Speaker 3: go to a decision. I like it, and I like

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Speaker 3: Vittori to win by decision as well. But the best

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Speaker 3: way I think you could play this victory in the

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Speaker 3: over two and a half rounds pre fight I found

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Speaker 3: out about minus one twenty two. They said he could

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Speaker 3: play his decision prop as well. I just think there's

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Speaker 3: a chance he finishes. Attiring to Leeds a late. The

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Speaker 3: one time we saw the leeds A go into a

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Speaker 3: five round fight, he ended up fading, getting finished by

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Speaker 3: Nacer Dina. Mov up, Billy, I think you have the

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Speaker 3: same approach, or a very similar approach to me in

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Speaker 3: terms of betting this fight taking a slightly different bet. Specifically,

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Speaker 3: I had very similar odds, just about a two and

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Speaker 3: a half minute difference in terms of what we're actually betting.

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Speaker 3: So go ahead and tell me what I missed in

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Speaker 3: terms of breaking down this fight and any other ways

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Speaker 3: you'd like to bet it from how I have.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, before I get to what I'm giving out now,

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Speaker 1: I took Marvin Vittori at minus one forty earlier in

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Speaker 1: the week. That was in my luck ratings. You know,

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Speaker 1: all the rematch trends point in his direct he's the

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Speaker 1: younger fighter, and he won the first matchup. And then also,

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Speaker 1: as you pointed out, the five round makes it much

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Speaker 1: much worse for Roman Daliedze. In my opinion, his two

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Speaker 1: advantages are his power, but he swings real wild and

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Speaker 1: kind of empties that pretty early in most of his fights,

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Speaker 1: and his grappling, which he also uses a ton of

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Speaker 1: energy and it doesn't typically hold up well for him

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Speaker 1: later into a fight. His only five round fights so

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Speaker 1: far was against naserdine Imovov didn't really try to push

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Speaker 1: the grappling until the fifth round, went over three on takedowns,

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Speaker 1: barely landed any strikes, got kind of shut down later

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Speaker 1: in the fight, and as you pointed out, as a

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Speaker 1: horrible stylistic matchup for Dalidze because he needs to hurt

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Speaker 1: you with one big shot. inventorI has a big, old

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Speaker 1: giant head and pretty much never gets two hurt in

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Speaker 1: any of his fight. Also, very solid takedown defense. Wouldn't

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Speaker 1: shock me if Deledz got one or two early in

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Speaker 1: the fight. I just don't see him able to do

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Speaker 1: that over twenty five minutes, even in the smaller cage.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, as you alluded to, I just went.

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Speaker 1: With the four or five or decision line on Fandle,

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Speaker 1: which is minus one ten. It's you know, twelve cents

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Speaker 1: less of juice for two and a half less minute.

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Speaker 4: I'm okay with either.

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Speaker 1: If you didn't get a better line on VATORI earlier

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Speaker 1: in the week, or any kind of same game parlay

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Speaker 1: with whatever minutes or rounds you want to throw in there.

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Speaker 1: It's just a risk tolerance, saying, you know, if you

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Speaker 1: want to swing for the fences and play over three

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Speaker 1: and a half or four and a half, whatever, fine

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Speaker 1: with me. I think it's probably a decision. But I

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Speaker 1: agree with you that I'm worried enough about a late

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Speaker 1: stoppage that I want that equity in there too.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely, Yeah, I just don't want to be sweating deleeds

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Speaker 3: A potentially crumbling in the fifth round. I think any

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Speaker 3: iterations of a Tory later versus any iterations of Deledese

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Speaker 3: finishing inside the distance or the two you know approaches

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Speaker 3: I would generally take for betting this fight. Just want

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Speaker 3: to note again, victory live bet maybe the best time

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Speaker 3: to bet this fight after round one, two three, Maybe

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Speaker 3: it's one one after round two, maybe he's down one

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Speaker 3: after round one.

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Speaker 2: Just keeping an eye on the live market.

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Speaker 3: If a Tori's price improves at all, I'm gonna be

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Speaker 3: looking to bet him, provided he's not rocked and like

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Speaker 3: still recovering between rounds. I want to mention, you know,

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Speaker 3: the final piece here, you know, in terms of the leads,

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Speaker 3: a mixing it up going to the takedowns. So Victoria

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Speaker 3: did move his camp to att before this fight, you know,

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Speaker 3: while he's been rehabbing from the injury. I thought there

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Speaker 3: was a chance, you know, before I went back and

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Speaker 3: watched the first fight. Oh, maybe he'll introduce more leg

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Speaker 3: kicks here. He kicked the leads as leg like forty

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Speaker 3: times in the first fight across three rounds. It's statistically

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Speaker 3: amongst the most he's ever kicked an opponent's leg. So

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Speaker 3: it's not like that's going to be a new aspect

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Speaker 3: that he introduces to his game for this fight. Maybe

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Speaker 3: you see att tell him to mix it up a

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Speaker 3: little bit more. You look historically at their takedown numbers.

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Speaker 3: These guys attempt the same number of takedowns against their

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Speaker 3: opponents per five minutes spent a distance, So both tend

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Speaker 3: to mix in the wrestling as much as the other does.

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Speaker 3: I think most would view the leeds A as the

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Speaker 3: better grappler here, But don't be surprised if a Tory

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Speaker 3: looks to mix in a takedown mix in some clinch time,

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Speaker 3: tries to tire de Les out up against the fence

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Speaker 3: instead of just standing at range eating the bigger power shots,

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Speaker 3: which he did last time. But do you you know,

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Speaker 3: worry a little bit about Victoria getting hit hard Early

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Speaker 3: doesn't have the best striking defense. Neither really does to

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Speaker 3: Tory defense. Strikes at fifty six percent, deleeds at fifty percent, So.

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Speaker 2: Oo's gonna get hit, do you think?

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Speaker 4: Though?

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Speaker 3: They're both durable and this likely does go over or

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Speaker 3: go later, turn our attention to the fight of the night.

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Speaker 3: Billy will have a breakdown for this one up on

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Speaker 3: actionnetwork dot Com. Elizaio Zeleski dos Santos about minus two

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Speaker 3: hundred against Cheaty and Jakwane. His fight is plus one

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Speaker 3: thirty to go to a decision like, we're on opposite

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Speaker 3: sides of this one here, Billy, but go ahead and

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Speaker 3: give your breakdown for this one first.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean the big thing for me is Cheaty

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Speaker 1: dropped down to one seventy last year. I don't like

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Speaker 1: when guys, you know, mid thirties and not drop a

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Speaker 1: weight class. It's not just because of the cardio factor.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's a heavier weight cut for him, which

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Speaker 1: isn't great. His cardio look fine in his first two fights,

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Speaker 1: but the two and oh he's picked up at Walter Waite.

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Speaker 1: I think it's a bit of a mirage. He fought

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Speaker 1: Jared Goodin and Reeves McKee, who are like two and

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Speaker 1: nine in the UFC between the two of them. So

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Speaker 1: did he really get better at one seventy or did

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Speaker 1: he just get much much easier opponents. So besides the

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Speaker 1: you know, weight cutting factor, you're also typically fighting more

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Speaker 1: skilled and faster opponents as you go down the weight classes,

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Speaker 1: and that's something that tends to go with age. So

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Speaker 1: I don't love that for CHEETI. But what really concerned

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Speaker 1: me is he just doesn't seem as explosive at one seventy.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if that's the weight cut or he

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Speaker 1: just doesn't have the size and strength where Zeleski, you know,

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Speaker 1: always getting big knockouts in there. He's got a wheel kick,

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Speaker 1: he's got a flying knee, flattened zax s Chroggins in

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Speaker 1: the first round with a punch. What impressed me watching

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Speaker 1: his tape is a lot of those flashy Coppo era

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Speaker 1: type guys have pretty bad boxing and defense. You know,

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Speaker 1: they either land a big shot or they get beat up.

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Speaker 1: Zeleski very fundamentally sound, hard to hit, clean, good hands,

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Speaker 1: you know all that stuff we look for. And then

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Speaker 1: probably the better grappler here as well. He's got some

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Speaker 1: highlight takedowns doesn't tend to do a lot with them,

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Speaker 1: but I think they're enough that they can sway some

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Speaker 1: rounds his way close. Otherwise, I think the advantage for

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Speaker 1: Cheaty is the size. Obviously, it's four inches taller, and

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Speaker 1: when Zeleski has lost or has looked bad, it's been

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Speaker 1: against bigger, more athletic people, which certainly describes cheety in theory.

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Speaker 1: I'm just not sure that the welterweight version of him

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Speaker 1: still has that kind of pop in that juice. With

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Speaker 1: all that said, I am not taking minus two hundred

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Speaker 1: or whatever the current money line is on Easy Do Santos.

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Speaker 1: The two I'm looking at is either Dos Santos inside

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Speaker 1: the distance at plus one fifty. I think he's got

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Speaker 1: the juice to find a button on Cheaty some submission

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Speaker 1: upside as well, or just the minus three and a

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Speaker 1: half at minus one fifteen. Kicking those two back and forth,

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Speaker 1: I think the takedowns can make some rounds just a

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Speaker 1: little bit more clear for Dos Santos. Minus three and

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Speaker 1: a half isn't too hard to cover. You just need

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Speaker 1: one judge to give you a thirty twenty seven in

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Speaker 1: a UD. I think we're going to see some tough

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Speaker 1: to score rounds just on with Cheety a little bit

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Speaker 1: better volume, Dos Santos a little bit crisper, a little

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Speaker 1: bit bigger moments. I'm hoping that the takedown upside in

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Speaker 1: the smaller age as well as you know, a flashy

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Speaker 1: spinning kick or a flying nee or some of that

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Speaker 1: stuff can sway a judge or two in his favor.

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Speaker 1: So either one of those. My article will have my

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Speaker 1: final line on which of those I go with. But again,

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Speaker 1: it's kind of a risk tolerance thing. If you think

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Speaker 1: he gets a finish, you can get plus one fifty

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Speaker 1: if you want, you know, a little bit likelier odds

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Speaker 1: to hit the minus one fifteen on its point spread.

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Speaker 3: As signed too, agree with everything you said, I think

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Speaker 3: should just additionally emphasize, you know, in regard to the

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Speaker 3: durability differential in the finishing stuff, I think Dos Santos

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Speaker 3: both more durable and probably has better cardio across fifteen minutes. However, Cheaty,

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Speaker 3: as you mentioned, Pauler fornchis taller, also has a seven

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Speaker 3: inch reach advantage, which I think is going to be

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Speaker 3: a big problem for Dos Santos at range. It's also

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Speaker 3: super strong in the clinch and moving down from one

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Speaker 3: eighty five to one seventy has just like enhanced his

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Speaker 3: overall power, not in terms of like finishing guys with

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Speaker 3: one punch, even though he does have very big power,

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Speaker 3: but just controlling in the grappling, not getting control old

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Speaker 3: five guys in the grappling, controlling positions in the clinch.

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Speaker 3: Completely agreed Dos Santos the offensive grappling upside here, but

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Speaker 3: I actually do think he needs to land takedowns or

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Speaker 3: hold at least one takedown win around via grappling in

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Speaker 3: order to win the fight. It's only landed nine takedowns

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Speaker 3: in the UFC career. He did land though, for against

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Speaker 3: Randy Brown, and that to me is a very similar

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Speaker 3: fight to this one. Now, I do view Brown as

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Speaker 3: a better grappler than Cheaty, So the fact that Do

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Speaker 3: Santo's had some grappling success wrestling success against Brown does

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Speaker 3: point well for this fight. You think Cheaty's a little

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Speaker 3: bit stronger, a little bit a little bit, a little

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Speaker 3: bit stronger in general, more powerful than Randy Brown though,

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Speaker 3: so that you know there's that explosion angle fighting back.

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Speaker 3: But the more cheat He has to explode in this fight,

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Speaker 3: the more he has to get up, the more his

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Speaker 3: gas tank is going to get drained. He wants a distance,

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Speaker 3: striking fight where he can make use of that reach advantage.

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Speaker 3: I think we ultimately get a very close decision here,

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Speaker 3: like that Brown and Do Santo's fight, where you're weighing

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Speaker 3: the takedowns the control time for Do Santo's against the

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Speaker 3: striking volume of Cheaty's. So to me, this is going

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Speaker 3: to be very close to a fifty fifty fight, a

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Speaker 3: potential split decision. Give me the striker, the guy landing

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Speaker 3: more damage inside of the apex. But do you think

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Speaker 3: this is very close fight and agree with Billy? I

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Speaker 3: think more finishing upside for Dosanto's, Billy, any thoughts, I

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Speaker 3: didn't look at the market for it, any thoughts the

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Speaker 3: finish only market for Dosantos here.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it wasn't a great price. I think the market

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Speaker 4: is seeing it.

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Speaker 1: I don't remember the exact numbers, but I did check

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Speaker 1: it out and it's it is aligned with our thoughts.

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Speaker 1: Is how I could sum that up best? So it

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Speaker 1: wasn't really you know, jumping out at me. I do

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Speaker 1: think it makes sense. I also, like, you know, the

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Speaker 1: Cheaty decision, just on the logic of if he's going

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Speaker 1: to win, that's probably how it happens. I don't see him.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned him being stronger at Walter Wit. He's got

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Speaker 1: like it seems to me from watching his fights, like

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Speaker 1: the is isometric strength is better, but he doesn't have

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Speaker 1: the explosion the same way it is a middle weight,

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Speaker 1: maybe because of the weight cut or just or because

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Speaker 1: he physically had to lose some weight to get down there.

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Speaker 1: Like he doesn't seem as fast twitch, but he Yeah,

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Speaker 1: he looked really good in the clinch.

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Speaker 4: Again, guys like Grease McKee and Jared Goodin.

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure that Zelaski does a lot with his takedown,

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Speaker 1: So I actually wrote that in my breakdown. So it's

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Speaker 1: kind of you know, do we think the judges uses

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Speaker 1: that as a way to break a tie in around

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Speaker 1: even if there's not a lot of damage.

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Speaker 4: It's debatable. We never know.

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Speaker 1: Judging has been very very bad lately as well, Shawn

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Speaker 1: and I realized with our best bets last week, so

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Speaker 1: that one's tough. That's probably why I'm leading to the

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Speaker 1: finish over the minus three and a half.

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Speaker 4: But we'll see exactly what I say.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say in the APEX damage has tended

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Speaker 3: to be weighed a little bit more heavily than grappling.

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Speaker 3: I feel like this is all anecdotal, but I feel

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Speaker 3: like we've seen more fighters get robbed, quote unquote rob

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Speaker 3: lose close decisions, landing takedowns, wrestling proactively in the apex,

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Speaker 3: where without a crowd there, the judges can literally hear

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Speaker 3: the impact of every single punch that lands. So do

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Speaker 3: you feel like damage gets a little bit more deference

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Speaker 3: in the apex? But that's all anecdotal. We'll see what

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Speaker 3: ends up playing out on Saturday between these two go

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Speaker 3: ahead Billy and.

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Speaker 1: The flip side of that, though, you also have more

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Speaker 1: opportunities to get takedowns in the apex, so that pushes

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Speaker 1: people into doing it more, which maybe you know then

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Speaker 1: the judges kind of say, like, all right, you shopped

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Speaker 1: fifteen takedowns, We're not going to reward the two that landed.

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Speaker 1: So there's there's two sides of that coin and the

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Speaker 1: kind of pointn oppsite directions which is annoying, but I

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Speaker 1: do agree with you. I'm the judging in general, it's

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Speaker 1: just hard to say. You never know who the judges

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Speaker 1: are going to be and what their personal biases are

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Speaker 1: and it's it's been rough lately.

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Speaker 4: As all I said, let's move.

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Speaker 2: On our favorite underdogs.

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Speaker 3: A number of big underdogs on this card, a couple

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Speaker 3: we're interested in taking some stabs at. I'll kick it

314
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Speaker 3: off with Cody gives it a plus three eighty against

315
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Speaker 3: them on Black Schear, Gibson is seven years older than Blackshear,

316
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Speaker 3: and there's a lot of age differential fights on this

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Speaker 3: card as well. That's seventy year age gap, six year

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Speaker 3: age gap. Typically where we draw on the line where

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Speaker 3: the market tends to undervalue the younger fighters. But Gibson

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Speaker 3: can wrestle, and Blacksher wins his fights via grappling. If

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Speaker 3: these two end up striking it out for fifteen minutes,

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Speaker 3: Gibson has the better strike differential stats historically by about

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Speaker 3: a third of a strike per minute in terms of

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Speaker 3: an edge. But also these two have spent about the

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Speaker 3: same amount of their fights grappling, about forty five to

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Speaker 3: fifty percent each. In terms of fight time spent grappling,

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Speaker 3: Gibson has the higher control rate against his opponents in

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Speaker 3: those grappling exchanges fifty seven percent versus fifty two percent

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Speaker 3: for Black Cheer. Gibson has landed more takedowns. In the UFC,

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Speaker 3: they both denied fifteen to twenty two attempts. All of

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Speaker 3: this is to say Blacksher wins his fights through grappling.

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Speaker 3: I'm not sure how much SSS he's gonna have in

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Speaker 3: terms of getting Cody Gibson into the ground or holding

334
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Speaker 3: him there for long stretches. Just because Gibson does come

335
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Speaker 3: from a wrestling base, I think he'll be able to

336
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Speaker 3: scramble back to his feet and make this closer than

337
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Speaker 3: the money line indicates if he's able to strike it

338
00:15:46,760 --> 00:15:49,440
Speaker 3: out for long stretches. So Cody Gibson at about plus

339
00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:52,120
Speaker 3: three eighty to win this fight. I also like him

340
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Speaker 3: to win by decision, and I lean for this fight

341
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Speaker 3: to go over or go to a decision. Billy, any

342
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Speaker 3: thoughts on the Gibson Blacksheer fight and if not, why

343
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Speaker 3: don't you go ahead and give out your dogs?

344
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Speaker 4: Yeah? I'm not on that one specifically.

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Speaker 1: I will say generally, odds are one of these heavy

346
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Speaker 1: underdogs come through it just a matter you know, taking

347
00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:11,040
Speaker 1: a couple of sprinkles and find one.

348
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Speaker 4: I think that's fine. Everything you said makes sense.

349
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Speaker 1: It'd also be fun to bet, uh, Damon black shaer

350
00:16:16,280 --> 00:16:19,080
Speaker 1: By Twister at books that have that specifically, he's got

351
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Speaker 1: the one win, but he's gone for it like two

352
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Speaker 1: or three other times.

353
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Speaker 3: Gibson, you need you need a taller opponent to get

354
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Speaker 3: that off. Five ten against five ten, I think you

355
00:16:25,800 --> 00:16:28,400
Speaker 3: can make it happen. So he did it again Johnson.

356
00:16:28,520 --> 00:16:32,120
Speaker 3: Johnson's like six two six three, Yeah, but yeah, Gibson's

357
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Speaker 3: I mean, these are these are both big fighters of

358
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Speaker 3: the division, So Gibson does have the body type or

359
00:16:36,800 --> 00:16:37,600
Speaker 3: I think black Shirt.

360
00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:39,720
Speaker 2: Could call off another Twister if he wants it well.

361
00:16:39,720 --> 00:16:42,040
Speaker 1: And also it works well on wrestlers because they're trying

362
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Speaker 1: to turn back in on top of you. I mean,

363
00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:46,840
Speaker 1: I think if you're fighting Demon black Share at this point,

364
00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:48,200
Speaker 1: you kind of know to look out for it, or

365
00:16:48,200 --> 00:16:50,600
Speaker 1: you should. I mean, it's not it's not a secret.

366
00:16:50,640 --> 00:16:52,520
Speaker 1: But yeah, that's my only real thought on that one.

367
00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:55,800
Speaker 1: The two very long shots I'm sprinkling on one is

368
00:16:55,800 --> 00:17:00,280
Speaker 1: Carlos Vera against josiahs Mussasa Vera. Oh in one, since

369
00:17:00,280 --> 00:17:02,040
Speaker 1: I believe coming back to the UFC, did he have

370
00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:03,200
Speaker 1: an earlier stint or am.

371
00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:06,840
Speaker 4: I confusing him with I'll it? No, Yeah, it's his

372
00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:08,439
Speaker 4: only one. He came off the Ultimate Fighter.

373
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Speaker 1: He got dominated by Rnyon Nakhamer on the ground, which

374
00:17:11,960 --> 00:17:15,560
Speaker 1: is kind of fine, like that's gonna happen. Older fighter

375
00:17:15,840 --> 00:17:19,760
Speaker 1: doesn't have the you know, explosive ability is Josias Musasa,

376
00:17:19,920 --> 00:17:23,720
Speaker 1: but Musasa is very very raw, swings heavy, does a lot.

377
00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:26,199
Speaker 1: If he doesn't knock you out, there's not really a

378
00:17:26,240 --> 00:17:28,640
Speaker 1: plan B. He won a close decision or close ish

379
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Speaker 1: decision on the Contender series where he couldn't find that

380
00:17:31,800 --> 00:17:34,920
Speaker 1: finish but got taken down four times. Carlos Vera fights

381
00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:38,639
Speaker 1: out of fifty to fifty martial art in the DMV area.

382
00:17:39,280 --> 00:17:41,080
Speaker 1: That's where Ryan holl is from. These are guys with

383
00:17:41,119 --> 00:17:44,040
Speaker 1: tricky submissions. They were like one of the hot grappling teams.

384
00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:46,879
Speaker 1: I don't know seven eight years ago. If he can

385
00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:48,880
Speaker 1: get a takedown, which is a big if, I think

386
00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:52,360
Speaker 1: he will absolutely school Musasa on the ground. And it's

387
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Speaker 1: plus six hundred. So is he likely to win? No,

388
00:17:55,640 --> 00:17:58,080
Speaker 1: of course not. He's eleven years older, way worse athlete.

389
00:17:58,240 --> 00:18:00,000
Speaker 1: All it takes is one takedown, though, and he's gonna

390
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Speaker 1: look like a big favorite.

391
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Speaker 4: So I like very for that.

392
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Speaker 1: I just hope you don't get like a crime Gracie

393
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Speaker 1: style guard jumping festival, like you gotta shoot, you gotta

394
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Speaker 1: at least try.

395
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Speaker 4: And then the other one.

396
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Speaker 1: I took her at plus four hundred earlier in the

397
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Speaker 1: week in my luck rating, because that's Uni Si du

398
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Speaker 1: Ben fighting Carly Judaice. Dubin was like a plus six

399
00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:21,320
Speaker 1: hundred or so underdog on.

400
00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:25,040
Speaker 2: The what was it?

401
00:18:25,200 --> 00:18:27,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, I got her plus six to one in the

402
00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:28,120
Speaker 4: article I did.

403
00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:31,040
Speaker 1: That's why I quoted that one big first round knockout

404
00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:35,159
Speaker 1: over a previously undefeated opponent. Now she's fighting Carly Judice,

405
00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:37,080
Speaker 1: who is three and two two close losses.

406
00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:37,560
Speaker 4: In the UFC.

407
00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:41,280
Speaker 1: Judais had zero wins over opponents with winning records like

408
00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:43,920
Speaker 1: her three wins were against fighters at five hundred or worse.

409
00:18:44,720 --> 00:18:46,359
Speaker 1: Du Ben might just be a flash in the pan.

410
00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:49,480
Speaker 1: She might have just landed a lucky punch. But when

411
00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:51,679
Speaker 1: you're fighting someone who hasn't shown that she's, you know,

412
00:18:51,760 --> 00:18:54,680
Speaker 1: really a level higher, I'm willing to take that back.

413
00:18:55,160 --> 00:18:57,199
Speaker 1: If you didn't get the plus four hundred earlier in

414
00:18:57,240 --> 00:18:59,800
Speaker 1: the week, I think her knockout are inside the distance

415
00:18:59,840 --> 00:19:02,239
Speaker 1: eye makes a lot more sense Now. I think it's

416
00:19:02,280 --> 00:19:04,280
Speaker 1: like plus two eighty or plus two ninety on the

417
00:19:04,320 --> 00:19:06,720
Speaker 1: money line, which I probably wouldn't take. And you're going

418
00:19:06,800 --> 00:19:10,760
Speaker 1: to talk about the inverse of that, which is Judas

419
00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:13,680
Speaker 1: later in the fight. So yeah, if you haven't got

420
00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:15,720
Speaker 1: there yet, I think you go with another knockout. She

421
00:19:15,760 --> 00:19:18,359
Speaker 1: seems to have big power. Again, it's a sample size

422
00:19:18,359 --> 00:19:22,080
Speaker 1: of like literally one punch, not even one fight. But

423
00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:26,439
Speaker 1: at lower level women's MMA, if you've got stopping power

424
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Speaker 1: sometimes that's all you need. And we're gonna talk or

425
00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:31,119
Speaker 1: you're gonna talk about another fighter in just a second

426
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Speaker 1: who has stopping power in female MMA.

427
00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:35,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have one other underdog that I like here,

428
00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:38,479
Speaker 3: but you also have the total on that fight, and

429
00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:41,439
Speaker 3: I bet the total on the Judas Duban fights. So

430
00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:44,040
Speaker 3: before we get to those with March, Baton is right

431
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434
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441
00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:10,720
Speaker 3: Visit actionework dot com slash March to sign up and

442
00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:15,399
Speaker 3: save and yes. My thoughts on the Dubin the Dubn

443
00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:19,880
Speaker 3: Judas fight. So women's flyweight fights go to a decision

444
00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:22,119
Speaker 3: about sixty eight percent of the time in the past

445
00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:26,399
Speaker 3: three years. That's minus two twelve in terms of implied odds.

446
00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:29,320
Speaker 3: I made this sixty nine percent minus two twenty six

447
00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:33,400
Speaker 3: implied you can get I believe minus one fifty. I'm

448
00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:35,680
Speaker 3: fine betting that all the way up to about minus

449
00:20:35,760 --> 00:20:40,200
Speaker 3: two hundred minus two of five betting into the divisional average.

450
00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:44,119
Speaker 3: The Danawi Contender Series fight for Duban was plus money

451
00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:46,280
Speaker 3: to go to a decision plus one seventy five. But

452
00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:48,960
Speaker 3: she was the one who is expected to get finished

453
00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:51,919
Speaker 3: in that matchup. Judas is bigger here, three inches taller,

454
00:20:52,359 --> 00:20:54,720
Speaker 3: three inch reach advantage. I think it's likely that she

455
00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:57,080
Speaker 3: wins an extended fight. We don't really have much information

456
00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:01,720
Speaker 3: about Dubin aside from that ulous knockout. O'Shannon Clark on

457
00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:04,160
Speaker 3: Contenter series. There's just not a ton of tape on her.

458
00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:09,360
Speaker 3: But you know, taking the divisional averages for woman's flyweight,

459
00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:14,200
Speaker 3: factoring those in, factoring you know, obviously Dubin's finish basically

460
00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:16,760
Speaker 3: all of our opponents, but factoring in like lower level

461
00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:18,199
Speaker 3: WMMA fights.

462
00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:21,480
Speaker 2: I do think this this goes to decision.

463
00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:24,200
Speaker 3: About in line with the market averager or I should

464
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:28,480
Speaker 3: say the divisional baseline historically, which again is near seventy percent,

465
00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:32,199
Speaker 3: just under seventy percent implied. So goes to decision how

466
00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:34,520
Speaker 3: I'm betting that fight at about minus one fifty and

467
00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:37,080
Speaker 3: then also judas by decision, I would bet up to

468
00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:39,359
Speaker 3: minus one to fifteen, projected that closer to minus one

469
00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:39,880
Speaker 3: twenty five.

470
00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:41,560
Speaker 2: Talk about the.

471
00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:45,760
Speaker 3: Priscilla Cacierra Chosy and Nunez fight, because Billy, as I said,

472
00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:47,840
Speaker 3: you have a bet on the total, I have a

473
00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:50,840
Speaker 3: bet on the underdog. Both of these are plus money.

474
00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:53,040
Speaker 3: Why don't you go ahead and talk about the total

475
00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:55,280
Speaker 3: for this one first, because both of these women have

476
00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:58,320
Speaker 3: sufficient power for the vision and they may just stand

477
00:21:58,320 --> 00:21:59,720
Speaker 3: in a phone booth and slug it out.

478
00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:03,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I actually agree with you that the underdog

479
00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:06,480
Speaker 1: Katchaueerra is the side I just don't see her winning

480
00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:12,520
Speaker 1: a decision because she like very limited durability, limited grappling defense,

481
00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:18,080
Speaker 1: walks through punches, and like borderline quits. And also she

482
00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:20,520
Speaker 1: really likes to cheat in her fights. And if we

483
00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:23,520
Speaker 1: get this fight waved off in the second or early

484
00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:26,879
Speaker 1: third round or first because she committed fourteen illegal shots

485
00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:29,800
Speaker 1: before the rest step in, that also cashes the under,

486
00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:31,879
Speaker 1: which like is a weird thing to handicap but was

487
00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:34,080
Speaker 1: a serious part of how I thought about this one.

488
00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:35,840
Speaker 1: And then the under two and a half is plus

489
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:38,880
Speaker 1: one seventy. Katchawere a little bit less lines than that,

490
00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:42,640
Speaker 1: She's the more well rounded striker. She mixes and kicks

491
00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:45,960
Speaker 1: and knees and clinched stuff. Nuna just throws overhand less,

492
00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:50,040
Speaker 1: over and over and over and hopes one land. It's scary, though,

493
00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:52,880
Speaker 1: because Katchauere can get hit by anyone like she does

494
00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:55,160
Speaker 1: a very good job of finding ways to be hit.

495
00:22:55,640 --> 00:23:00,280
Speaker 1: So I like Katchauea. If Katchawere's money line price was

496
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:02,000
Speaker 1: better than the under two and a half, I would

497
00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:04,679
Speaker 1: be with you, but for an extra fifteen cents of juice.

498
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:06,880
Speaker 1: And again the cheating angle because she does all kinds

499
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:09,480
Speaker 1: of fouls in like every fight she's in. I was

500
00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:11,560
Speaker 1: tempted to do the point to be deducted at twenty

501
00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:14,639
Speaker 1: to one, but that relies on a ref actually caring

502
00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 1: and interviewing, which, as we see, is pretty rare in mmas.

503
00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:21,440
Speaker 1: Like we saw in the Henry Sujudo fight, they waved

504
00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:24,720
Speaker 1: the fight off but didn't take a point, which feels backwards.

505
00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:27,080
Speaker 1: But if something like that happens and it's not in

506
00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:28,600
Speaker 1: the final two and a half minutes of the fight,

507
00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:31,280
Speaker 1: we cash my bet. So that's the angle I'm taking.

508
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:34,600
Speaker 1: But anything else I missed on Whykachi where it's the side?

509
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:35,440
Speaker 4: Yeah.

510
00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:38,560
Speaker 3: Mark Smith, who I believe was the referee for the

511
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:42,119
Speaker 3: Turner Bobby Green fight let Bobby Green die like four times,

512
00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:46,040
Speaker 3: took a point without a warning last week. Just Mark

513
00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:48,040
Speaker 3: Smith out there doing whatever the hell he wants from

514
00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:51,200
Speaker 3: fight to fight. No consistency whatsoever, worse ref in the sport.

515
00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:53,639
Speaker 3: There's a reason you never see Mark Smith reform main event.

516
00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:56,440
Speaker 3: Everybody else's restumede events. Mark Smith never in the main event.

517
00:23:57,040 --> 00:23:59,439
Speaker 3: Take notice of that. Mark Smith never, never, never in

518
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:01,560
Speaker 3: the Maine event. They don't want somebody to die in

519
00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:01,960
Speaker 3: his watch.

520
00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:04,800
Speaker 1: I like the production for the record, though I wish

521
00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:06,399
Speaker 1: they all did that. Like that one I was actually

522
00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:06,760
Speaker 1: okay with.

523
00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:10,320
Speaker 3: But just like his his like pacing intent, like he's

524
00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:12,600
Speaker 3: just so random in terms of his decision making. It's

525
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:14,680
Speaker 3: completely wild, like you never know what you're going to

526
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:17,639
Speaker 3: get from him from one fight to the next. So Cashier,

527
00:24:17,800 --> 00:24:20,080
Speaker 3: with regards to the striking defense, defense strikes at forty

528
00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:23,840
Speaker 3: three percent, which is tragic, Nenas though fifty one percent

529
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:26,720
Speaker 3: not much better. There's a chance these two, just as

530
00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:28,720
Speaker 3: I said, slug it out in a phone booth. What

531
00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:31,200
Speaker 3: I'm more interested in is who shoots a takedown first

532
00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:35,200
Speaker 3: and maybe taking plus money takedown odds on either side

533
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,080
Speaker 3: of this fight. That might interest you, Billy, because both

534
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:39,840
Speaker 3: of them are poor grapplers. Both of them have shown

535
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 3: a tendency to get taken down and get stuck on

536
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:45,680
Speaker 3: their back, and I'm sure both corners at various points

537
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:48,560
Speaker 3: will be calling for their fighter to mix it up

538
00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:50,919
Speaker 3: and shoot a takedown because the other is likely to

539
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:53,800
Speaker 3: have success on the feet. As you said, Cashu era

540
00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:58,080
Speaker 3: more diverse striker right, going to throw or hands in

541
00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:02,720
Speaker 3: different directions, jabs, straight hook's uppercuts, et cetera. Nunez is

542
00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:06,120
Speaker 3: just pure overhand left spamming it again and again and again,

543
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:08,239
Speaker 3: and she does kind of hit people with it, and

544
00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:11,440
Speaker 3: she's very powerful. There could be a size thing here,

545
00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:16,440
Speaker 3: which I find interesting. Nune's used to fight at at

546
00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 3: featherweight one five, Cashierra used to compete at one twenty five.

547
00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:25,560
Speaker 3: Now they're meeting at one thirty five. Cashuer is five

548
00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:29,000
Speaker 3: inches taller, but Nunez has a two inch reach advantage,

549
00:25:29,040 --> 00:25:32,399
Speaker 3: and she has the strength advantage as well, So I

550
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:35,800
Speaker 3: think all else being equal, Nuna is being favored fine,

551
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:38,480
Speaker 3: just because if this is a fifteen minute striking fight,

552
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:42,400
Speaker 3: Nunez likely hits a little bit harder, even though Cashierra

553
00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:45,679
Speaker 3: may have more volume. But ultimately happy to take a

554
00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:49,520
Speaker 3: shot on either the underdog here or the over going

555
00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:52,240
Speaker 3: opposite Billy, because I think plus money on both of

556
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:54,600
Speaker 3: those one ends up likely being wrong. I think it

557
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:57,840
Speaker 3: either goes to a decision or Cashier potentially finishes her

558
00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:00,760
Speaker 3: inside the distance. I don't know if I'll play, but

559
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:03,199
Speaker 3: I do like one or the other in terms of

560
00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:06,320
Speaker 3: plus money. Billy, did you have any other props you

561
00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:07,800
Speaker 3: wanted to give out before we move on to our

562
00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 3: best bets.

563
00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:10,240
Speaker 4: I think that's it for me.

564
00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:12,280
Speaker 1: I will jump in and say, though the over is

565
00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:14,679
Speaker 1: like minus two hundred or whatever, the over is not

566
00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 1: plus money in this one.

567
00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:17,160
Speaker 4: It's the under that's plus one.

568
00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:21,320
Speaker 3: That's I project. I didn't mean either plus money. I

569
00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:24,600
Speaker 3: project value on the over is all I meant to

570
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:28,520
Speaker 3: say relative to the vision. I know they're both power punchers.

571
00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 3: I know they tend to cause finishes. It is still

572
00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:34,080
Speaker 3: a woman's one thirty five pound fight. I want to

573
00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:38,200
Speaker 3: see where I end up putting that number. I make

574
00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:40,560
Speaker 3: it minus you know what, I might be in line

575
00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:41,240
Speaker 3: with the market there.

576
00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:42,560
Speaker 2: What was the number of the ghost?

577
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:45,159
Speaker 1: The decision, I don't know goes to decision I got

578
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:46,960
Speaker 1: under two and a half at plus one seventy.

579
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:49,640
Speaker 3: Okay, yeah, I make the GTV about minus two hundred,

580
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:51,159
Speaker 3: so I'm probably in line with the market there. It

581
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:54,120
Speaker 3: might actually be cashierra or pass for me. In terms

582
00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:56,680
Speaker 3: of a money line bet. Nothing I'm super excited about,

583
00:26:56,720 --> 00:26:59,400
Speaker 3: but an interesting fight in a fun fight, potentially very

584
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:01,840
Speaker 3: fun fight we're talking about may just be an absolute

585
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:02,960
Speaker 3: slubcast between those two.

586
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:05,200
Speaker 2: Move on our best bets.

587
00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:08,879
Speaker 3: I've got another total and also a long shot decision prop.

588
00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:10,320
Speaker 3: I want to give out, but Billy and I are

589
00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:13,359
Speaker 3: aligned on one underdog. I would have given out in

590
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:16,120
Speaker 3: the underdog session. Wanted to save this fight to talk

591
00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 3: about in best bets Walder Creteza Costa against Ryan Span.

592
00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:21,919
Speaker 2: Billy, we're both on the underdog.

593
00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:23,800
Speaker 4: Tell me why. Yeah.

594
00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:26,680
Speaker 1: So, remember what I said earlier about older fighters going

595
00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:29,440
Speaker 1: down a weight class. I feel the exact opposite way

596
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:33,160
Speaker 1: about older fighters going up a weight class, especially when

597
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:36,000
Speaker 1: that weight class is heavyweight, because the quality of heavyweight

598
00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:39,120
Speaker 1: MMA right now is so bad that some of these

599
00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:42,520
Speaker 1: you know, borderline ranked or formerly ranked light heavyweights are

600
00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:45,440
Speaker 1: going to look really really good against big, slow heavyweight

601
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:49,760
Speaker 1: former minor league baseball players, which is Walder Cortesa, Costa,

602
00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:52,359
Speaker 1: Ryan Span, you know, finally got back in the win

603
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:56,159
Speaker 1: column against OSP after a tough stretch that included a

604
00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:57,080
Speaker 1: split decision lost.

605
00:27:57,119 --> 00:27:59,640
Speaker 4: Anthony Smith wasn't great, very big.

606
00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:01,720
Speaker 1: Boy, and it was kind of impressive that he was

607
00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:05,600
Speaker 1: making two five to begin with, inch taller and inch

608
00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:09,239
Speaker 1: longer reach than Salsa boy will not look like like

609
00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:11,000
Speaker 1: if you watch this fight, you won't know which guy

610
00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:12,159
Speaker 1: is coming up from light heavyweight.

611
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:14,399
Speaker 4: You'll go, ah, they both look pretty big. That's not

612
00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:15,160
Speaker 4: an issue.

613
00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 1: Clearly better athlete, clearly more dynamic, has some submission skills

614
00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:24,040
Speaker 1: in his game, more power. I worry about the durability

615
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:28,560
Speaker 1: for Span, but Cortez Acosta has one finish despite fighting

616
00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:31,320
Speaker 1: like all the worst dudes in the heavyweight division so

617
00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:35,040
Speaker 1: far to his career. So in other matchups against guys

618
00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:36,760
Speaker 1: with a little bit more pop, I will be worried

619
00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:40,040
Speaker 1: about Ryan Span heavyweight salsa boy is not one that

620
00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:43,400
Speaker 1: does that. Don't think the few takedowns he got on

621
00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:47,360
Speaker 1: Rebelli's daspanna will carry over into him shooting like ever

622
00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:50,240
Speaker 1: again really at heavyweight unless he fights some other former

623
00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 1: kickboxer taekwondo guy type like that. If he shoots on

624
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:56,960
Speaker 1: Ryan Span, he's getting deateamed immediately, Like that's just how

625
00:28:56,960 --> 00:28:57,480
Speaker 1: that goes.

626
00:28:57,760 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 4: So plus one fifty on Span.

627
00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:02,520
Speaker 1: I think the market is just overreacting to the weight

628
00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:06,120
Speaker 1: differential here. But I think going up to heavyweight if

629
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:09,320
Speaker 1: you aren't drastically undersized, is almost always a good thing.

630
00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:12,040
Speaker 1: We saw with jyleton Almeta it looked good at light heavyweight,

631
00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:13,960
Speaker 1: look like a world beater at heavyweight for a while.

632
00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:15,640
Speaker 4: I think it's a similar dynamic here.

633
00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:18,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think there could be a given a take

634
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:20,640
Speaker 3: with Span moving to heavyweight. Obviously not cutting weight should

635
00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:22,440
Speaker 3: help him a bit, but also having to push around

636
00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:24,560
Speaker 3: a bigger guy could take a little bit more out

637
00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 3: of him.

638
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:26,240
Speaker 2: Ryan Spanish is just such a weird fighter.

639
00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:28,960
Speaker 3: He seems to have a near finish in round one

640
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 3: against every single opponent, and then when that does not materialize,

641
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 3: he does tend to fade. He can fade even within

642
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:38,000
Speaker 3: that same first round, just like collapse immediately, you know,

643
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:40,160
Speaker 3: if his first attempt at doing something doesn't work. But

644
00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:43,240
Speaker 3: as you mentioned, I think he is the better athlete.

645
00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:45,920
Speaker 3: I think he's more powerful. He's got really good leg

646
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:48,560
Speaker 3: kicks that can slow Wall though down at range, He's

647
00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 3: probably going to get on top in the first round

648
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:53,400
Speaker 3: threat to finish despite either rea a submission or ground

649
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:53,720
Speaker 3: to pound.

650
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:56,240
Speaker 2: While though you know six.

651
00:29:56,080 --> 00:29:57,680
Speaker 3: And one of the UFC, as you said, like has

652
00:29:57,760 --> 00:29:59,560
Speaker 3: faced the bottom of the division.

653
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:05,440
Speaker 2: Adre Arolovski. That fight people thought he lost. He was other.

654
00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:09,320
Speaker 4: Go ahead, he got outstruck by Rolovsky.

655
00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:09,960
Speaker 2: He did.

656
00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:13,560
Speaker 3: He did as a as a pretty big favorite out

657
00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 3: grappled Redebellus to Spain. That has no bearing on this

658
00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:21,160
Speaker 3: matchup got out grappled by Marcos Sergeria Delima be Chase Sherman.

659
00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:23,440
Speaker 3: Chase Sherman by Elo raiding is the worst fighter in

660
00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:25,600
Speaker 3: the history of the UFC, the lowest ELO rating of

661
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 3: all time. Jared Vander one of the worst fighters I've

662
00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 3: ever seen personally in the UFC. So yeah, low level wins.

663
00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:36,600
Speaker 3: He is a volume point fighter where his SPAN is

664
00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:38,840
Speaker 3: going to threaten to finish this fighter early. And I

665
00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:41,200
Speaker 3: think Waldo, as we saw in the Virgaria de Lima fight,

666
00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:43,760
Speaker 3: can get out grappled. They're really can he stay safe

667
00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:45,479
Speaker 3: on the bottom that I'm not so sure about it.

668
00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:48,320
Speaker 3: I think maybe there's a you know, there's a chance

669
00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:51,080
Speaker 3: he can. But I still like Span without cutting the

670
00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:54,120
Speaker 3: weight potentially to win a decision here, which is not

671
00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:57,320
Speaker 3: something he does fairly consistently, either actually lean.

672
00:30:57,240 --> 00:30:59,080
Speaker 2: To the over or the ghost decision.

673
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:01,040
Speaker 3: But if you want to bet Span in round one,

674
00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:03,160
Speaker 3: if you want to bet Waldo in rounds two or

675
00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:05,120
Speaker 3: round three, if you want to bet Waldo live, I

676
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:08,640
Speaker 3: think those are all reasonable approach. It's just my favorite

677
00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:11,960
Speaker 3: way is to have a ticket on Span refight and

678
00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:13,360
Speaker 3: then you can stually hatch out of it.

679
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:15,600
Speaker 2: Live after round one. You kind of agree with that approach.

680
00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:17,920
Speaker 1: Really, yeah, one hundred percent. I was gonna say the

681
00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:20,120
Speaker 1: same thing. I don't have the numbers in front of me.

682
00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:21,480
Speaker 1: I looked it up earlier in the week for a

683
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 1: different article. If you remove the Andrea Arolovski fight, his opponents,

684
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:30,400
Speaker 1: the people that Corteza Costa beat are combined like six

685
00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:33,200
Speaker 1: and thirty in the UFC or somewhere in that neighborhood.

686
00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:35,480
Speaker 1: And I say remove Arlovsky one because he didn't really

687
00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 1: beat him in two, because Arlovsky was a weak shy

688
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:40,400
Speaker 1: of turning forty five when they fought, So that wasn't

689
00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:43,560
Speaker 1: the same Andrea Arolovski that had all those wins literally

690
00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:47,520
Speaker 1: twenty years ago. So yeah, it's been one of the

691
00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 1: most propped up UFC records I've seen in recent memory.

692
00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:54,120
Speaker 3: For Salsa Boy, he was a minus six twenty favorite

693
00:31:54,120 --> 00:31:57,000
Speaker 3: against Arlovsky. In that fight, Arlowski closed between plus four

694
00:31:57,080 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 3: hundred and plus five fifty. So that was his toughest

695
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:02,840
Speaker 3: arguably in the UFC, even on paper.

696
00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:04,640
Speaker 4: And he prove year old man.

697
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:07,720
Speaker 2: And he might have lost that.

698
00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:10,280
Speaker 3: I mean, everyandre Alowski fight seemingly goes to the split

699
00:32:10,320 --> 00:32:13,600
Speaker 3: decision unless you are a level above him, and clearly,

700
00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:17,560
Speaker 3: while that was not a level above my favorite bet

701
00:32:17,600 --> 00:32:20,760
Speaker 3: on this card, this is actually a best bet considering

702
00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:23,440
Speaker 3: where the divisional average is Men's vandon WEIGHTE fights go

703
00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:26,240
Speaker 3: to decision about fifty nine percent of the time in

704
00:32:26,240 --> 00:32:29,920
Speaker 3: the past three years, AG Cunningham and Sueyong Yu is

705
00:32:30,000 --> 00:32:33,440
Speaker 3: currently plus one seventeen to reach a decision. I think

706
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:35,840
Speaker 3: I even saw plus one thirty this morning. It might

707
00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:38,480
Speaker 3: have moved last night. I projected this writing line with

708
00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:40,240
Speaker 3: the divisional average about fifty eight percent.

709
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:40,720
Speaker 4: Now.

710
00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:44,040
Speaker 3: Cunningham, I think most people would agree, clearly not UFC level.

711
00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:46,960
Speaker 3: Got beat up on Contender Series, probably didn't deserve a

712
00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:51,200
Speaker 3: shot in the UFC after that, and got absolutely annihilated

713
00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:53,600
Speaker 3: by Ludovick Klein. But this is a way different matchup

714
00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:56,240
Speaker 3: for him than what he's faced in the past. Suyong

715
00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:59,160
Speaker 3: Yu is a control oriented grappler. He's not going to

716
00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:01,920
Speaker 3: be standing at rain trying to finish Cunningham. He's going

717
00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:03,320
Speaker 3: to be trying to get him down on the mat

718
00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:07,800
Speaker 3: and finishing him with submissions or controlling him on the mat. Cunningham,

719
00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:10,360
Speaker 3: to me, is the better striker, but he's also the

720
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:13,760
Speaker 3: bigger man, forge taller for inch reach advantage. I'm much

721
00:33:13,760 --> 00:33:16,200
Speaker 3: more worried about him finishing you with strikes than I

722
00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:18,200
Speaker 3: am the other way around. I think you could potentially

723
00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 3: finish him on the mat. Cunningham, though, moved out to

724
00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:23,760
Speaker 3: Factory X we Tie before this camp. I think he's

725
00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:27,760
Speaker 3: getting better training, partners, getting better training in general, better coaching,

726
00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:30,280
Speaker 3: and he actually, to my knowledge, he does have a

727
00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:33,800
Speaker 3: Brasilian jiu jitsu black belt, can probably keep himself safe

728
00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:36,560
Speaker 3: on the mat even if he is getting taken Downes

729
00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:38,120
Speaker 3: a guy used to train him and Price Mitchell, though

730
00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:40,800
Speaker 3: I don't think he's absolutely gonna get washed, you know,

731
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 3: in terms of the defensive wrestling, I think he might

732
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:45,960
Speaker 3: be able to compete here, keep this fight standing and

733
00:33:46,040 --> 00:33:50,320
Speaker 3: outland you across fifteen minutes. So big underdog AJ Cunningham

734
00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:52,600
Speaker 3: not a guy ever expected to bet on in the UFC,

735
00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:55,840
Speaker 3: but the dynamics of this matchup do make it possible

736
00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:59,000
Speaker 3: for him to outland a guy who's going to try

737
00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 3: to control him for the majority to fight, and I

738
00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:05,479
Speaker 3: think judges may have to weigh Cunningham's volume against Suyong

739
00:34:05,560 --> 00:34:08,360
Speaker 3: Yu's control time in this fight, So give.

740
00:34:08,160 --> 00:34:08,520
Speaker 4: Me a J.

741
00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:11,200
Speaker 3: Cunningham maybe on the money line at five to one.

742
00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:14,480
Speaker 3: I actually prefer him by decision at thirteen to one.

743
00:34:14,520 --> 00:34:16,719
Speaker 3: I would bet those down to five to one and

744
00:34:16,760 --> 00:34:19,120
Speaker 3: ten to one, respectively. And then this fight to go

745
00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:22,439
Speaker 3: to a decision at plus money, I would probably bet

746
00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:25,040
Speaker 3: that up all the way to about minus one twenty five.

747
00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:28,040
Speaker 3: So Cunningham's Suyongyu goes to the decision up to minus

748
00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 3: one twenty five, and then Cunningham either on the money

749
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:33,440
Speaker 3: line or by decision at longer Odd's Billy. Any thoughts

750
00:34:33,440 --> 00:34:33,919
Speaker 3: on that fight?

751
00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:38,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, just worth pointing out. Cunningham's Contender Series fight was

752
00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:41,960
Speaker 1: at one forty five. His short notice UFC here will

753
00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:43,760
Speaker 1: give you a chance, kid fight was at one fifty

754
00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:48,320
Speaker 1: five against Ludovik Klein, who's absolutely massive even as a lightweight,

755
00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:50,479
Speaker 1: and now he's fighting this one at one thirty five.

756
00:34:50,640 --> 00:34:53,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, I actually like Cunningham on the money line.

757
00:34:53,680 --> 00:34:55,560
Speaker 1: In theory, this is one I want to see how

758
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:57,960
Speaker 1: wayans go, like, are we actually a one thirty five

759
00:34:58,040 --> 00:35:00,040
Speaker 1: or who shouldn't have been fighting that? Or are you

760
00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:03,279
Speaker 1: killing yourself to try to fight smaller opponents? So I

761
00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:06,080
Speaker 1: rarely bust out this take anymore. But this is the

762
00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:07,600
Speaker 1: one I actually want to see these guys on the

763
00:35:07,600 --> 00:35:09,800
Speaker 1: scales just to get a feel for how he looks.

764
00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:12,480
Speaker 1: And then sue young You, while technically has a win

765
00:35:12,560 --> 00:35:15,280
Speaker 1: in the UFC, it was the road to the UFC finals.

766
00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:17,879
Speaker 1: We have not seen a lot of success for guys

767
00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:21,000
Speaker 1: coming right off that one into the UFC proper because

768
00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:23,480
Speaker 1: it's kind of like the Ultimate Finale or whatever, where

769
00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:26,160
Speaker 1: you're not fighting a guy who has been established at

770
00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:29,120
Speaker 1: UFC level. I was all about so young You going

771
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:29,799
Speaker 1: into that fight.

772
00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:30,480
Speaker 4: He won it.

773
00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:32,800
Speaker 1: I was a little bit disappointed in how he looked,

774
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:35,880
Speaker 1: so probably gonna go Cunningham money line. Like your angles

775
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:38,239
Speaker 1: as well, I'm not doing the over just because I

776
00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:41,200
Speaker 1: want another big swing at something here with the you know,

777
00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:43,279
Speaker 1: decision at thirteen to one or money line at time

778
00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:43,800
Speaker 1: to one.

779
00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:46,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, you had a couple of splits on ROTA the

780
00:35:46,719 --> 00:35:50,000
Speaker 3: UFC as well, like was not winning dominant decisions. And

781
00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:53,839
Speaker 3: as you mentioned that that promotion, I guess you could

782
00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:55,960
Speaker 3: call it right because it's kind of a regional promotion

783
00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:59,120
Speaker 3: that they've created. Internally, it's like a regional minor league

784
00:35:59,120 --> 00:36:01,840
Speaker 3: that they've created. It just hasn't proven to have success

785
00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:04,560
Speaker 3: at the UFC level. The UFC desperate to add stars

786
00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:08,120
Speaker 3: from India, China, Japan, Korea, you know, all of these

787
00:36:08,400 --> 00:36:12,319
Speaker 3: these countries, these regions, but they're as a result of

788
00:36:12,360 --> 00:36:15,480
Speaker 3: them being desperate to add these guys, they're reaching for

789
00:36:15,560 --> 00:36:18,640
Speaker 3: guys who are not necessarily at the level of the UFC.

790
00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:19,560
Speaker 2: And again A. J.

791
00:36:19,680 --> 00:36:22,520
Speaker 3: Cunningham isn't necessarily at that level either, But I actually

792
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:25,480
Speaker 3: think he's getting an opponent who probably shouldn't be in

793
00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 3: the UFC, like himself. So yeah, maybe maybe, uh, you know,

794
00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:32,520
Speaker 3: not even an LFA level fight here, This is like

795
00:36:32,960 --> 00:36:37,839
Speaker 3: a promotion even even below that. But yeah, that's that's

796
00:36:37,840 --> 00:36:40,040
Speaker 3: where the UFC is at in twenty twenty five in

797
00:36:40,160 --> 00:36:43,640
Speaker 3: terms of the quality, especially in regard to these APEX cards.

798
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:45,319
Speaker 3: And now I'll do it for our UFC beting prove.

799
00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:48,239
Speaker 3: You can find more UFC content for both myself and

800
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:50,799
Speaker 3: Billy both on Actionetwork dot Com and in the Action

801
00:36:50,840 --> 00:36:53,360
Speaker 3: NETWORKAP And if you'd like to instantly tail some of

802
00:36:53,400 --> 00:36:55,160
Speaker 3: the bets that we discussed on today's show, look for

803
00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:58,360
Speaker 3: quick slip links in both the podcast and the video

804
00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:02,640
Speaker 3: descriptions or was it Action Work dot Com slash bet now, don't.

805
00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:03,080
Speaker 2: Forget to frown.

806
00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:05,560
Speaker 3: Download the free award winning Action of Work Gap and

807
00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:08,720
Speaker 3: sign up for Action Pro for immediate access to expert

808
00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:09,759
Speaker 3: picks and analysis.

809
00:37:09,760 --> 00:37:12,000
Speaker 2: Best to luck with all your bets this weekend, enjoy

810
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:13,280
Speaker 2: the violence. Thanks for listening.

811
00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:24,719
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

812
00:37:25,120 --> 00:37:27,960
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813
00:37:28,239 --> 00:37:30,879
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814
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