Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week inside from the reporters and
Speaker 1: editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus
Speaker 1: global business, finance and tech news as it happened. Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim
Speaker 1: Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Hi, everyone, Welcome to the weekend
Speaker 1: edition of Bloomberg Business Week. This week it is all
Speaker 1: about the Year Ahead issue, the major trends, disruptions, breakthrough products,
Speaker 1: innovations and movements to watch out for this year. That's right,
Speaker 1: everything from e V fever and testless tests to fake meats,
Speaker 1: f DA not flying taxis, wellness eating and big bet
Speaker 1: on global golf. It's all in the new issue, and
Speaker 1: over the next couple of hours we're gonna touch on
Speaker 1: some of it, and including the issue's annual collaboration with
Speaker 1: our Bloomberg Intelligence team on the fifty Companies to watch
Speaker 1: they narrow it down from two thousand. Carrol, this is
Speaker 1: one of I know that's one of your favorite sections,
Speaker 1: you said, but you know this is the second year
Speaker 1: I've I've gotten to see it at least as as
Speaker 1: part of Bloomberg. Is also one of my favorites. Its
Speaker 1: names you'll know, and some names you will, but it's
Speaker 1: a global overview of companies to keep an eye on.
Speaker 1: We'll even find some time to talk about how wine
Speaker 1: will change in Wait, are we still gonna get to
Speaker 1: drink it? Are you still gonna get to drink it too? Yeah? Exactly, exactly, Well,
Speaker 1: all that to come, we're gonna kick it off though,
Speaker 1: with the editor Blueberg, Business Week told web Carol, you
Speaker 1: caught up with Joel for an overview of the year
Speaker 1: at issue. Well, we really try and think about what
Speaker 1: what the big, big, big teams are. And obviously there's
Speaker 1: going to be some things that along over the course
Speaker 1: of the year just crop up and and those will
Speaker 1: just be the things that you know, we will cover
Speaker 1: as news. But really you have to kind of think
Speaker 1: about where the money is flowing. Like, for instance, electric vehicles,
Speaker 1: we've seen just a huge acceleration and adoption and companies
Speaker 1: tacking that way, and yet there's still this massive category,
Speaker 1: probably the biggest category of all that is totally up
Speaker 1: for grabs in that electric vehicle trucks right right, So
Speaker 1: looking at how that truck landscape is gonna play out,
Speaker 1: we that that will be a story obviously it's in
Speaker 1: the issue, but we we just know that it's going
Speaker 1: to be a line of reporting throughout the year. And similarly,
Speaker 1: you know, here we are with we've had tons of
Speaker 1: companies go public via things like SPACs, um, you know,
Speaker 1: buying taxis as this whole street you can almost laugh at.
Speaker 1: And yet there was serious money that poured in there,
Speaker 1: and now we're going to see how those companies fare
Speaker 1: on the public market. Well, a lot of a serious
Speaker 1: money going into a certain area, fintech. And you guys
Speaker 1: in the magazine, you know, are constantly talking about the
Speaker 1: intersection of finance and technology. We're seeing a lot of
Speaker 1: disruption and payment systems in the ways consumers gain access
Speaker 1: to credit kind of love it has a great piece
Speaker 1: in the finance section UM in this in this week's issue.
Speaker 1: Why is such an important year for fintech. Well, we've
Speaker 1: just seen how easy it is UM to do to basically, like,
Speaker 1: you know, take your business model, put it on in
Speaker 1: the app, uh and make it hyper hyper easy to use.
Speaker 1: And you know, Robin Hood really embodies that. UM. But
Speaker 1: there's gonna be you know, there there's a new players
Speaker 1: that are going to get into that space, and there's
Speaker 1: just new ways that that consumers are are interacting with commerce.
Speaker 1: And like the one of the stories in this section
Speaker 1: that I just love is about the buy now, pay
Speaker 1: later piece and we think this is gonna be And
Speaker 1: when you think about the companies that are that are
Speaker 1: in this the after pays the clarin is like, you know,
Speaker 1: you can basically look at them see the growth that
Speaker 1: they've had. And then in the story they basically say
Speaker 1: this is the year that you will see it in
Speaker 1: brick and mortar retail, which I think is like astounding.
Speaker 1: It's like you basically go check out at like a
Speaker 1: Best Buy or something and instead of using you know,
Speaker 1: a debit card or a credit card, It's like, what
Speaker 1: if you could actually say I want to buy this now,
Speaker 1: but actually pay later. And that's what that they're gonna
Speaker 1: They say that that is the next big wave that
Speaker 1: we will see this year. But then on the consumer side,
Speaker 1: you know there there's still a risk there, and we
Speaker 1: know that regulators are are taking an interest in this
Speaker 1: because while it might not doing your credit history your
Speaker 1: credit scores initially, um if if your default on those payments,
Speaker 1: you're still gonna have uh, you know, potentially people coming
Speaker 1: after you for money. So we're gonna we're gonna see
Speaker 1: how much consumers are willing to adopt this model instead
Speaker 1: of credit cards. Well, I feel like every time I
Speaker 1: buy something, I see it by now pay later button.
Speaker 1: They're just popping up all over you ready for more?
Speaker 1: I'm ready, I'm ready. Well, you mentioned it's caught the
Speaker 1: attention of regulators, all the changes that are going on
Speaker 1: in fintech. It's also caught the attention to big banks.
Speaker 1: They've got to be like wondering, Okay, are we gonna
Speaker 1: lose you know, our supreme spot at the top. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and that's why they're so busy in Washington, d C. Right,
Speaker 1: And they have you know, long long history in d C.
Speaker 1: But but you know, those relationships will remain really important.
Speaker 1: Why you know, loving dollars will remain ever high. And
Speaker 1: you know, as long as we're talking about d C,
Speaker 1: let's just also talk about this is gonna be a
Speaker 1: year of mid terms, and I think that we we
Speaker 1: spent a lot of time in the issue talking about
Speaker 1: that and obviously in America where that will become a huge,
Speaker 1: huge scheme as the year progresses. Well, let's talk about
Speaker 1: that I mean you do get into that in the
Speaker 1: technology section. Um. You know, we know that things like
Speaker 1: social media has played a really big role in politics already. Um,
Speaker 1: what are we anticipating for two, I mean, leading to
Speaker 1: more division? What does it mean for how the social
Speaker 1: media companies regulate all of this or oversee all of this.
Speaker 1: What are we expecting? Well, we know how how crucial
Speaker 1: it's been. Um, the country is incredibly divisive right now. Um.
Speaker 1: We will anticipate, you know, all of the social platforms
Speaker 1: having to come out, and they've been kind of quiet
Speaker 1: so far, the story explained. Um, so we're waiting to
Speaker 1: see what they're going to do in terms of moderation,
Speaker 1: in terms of censorship, there's a number of noteworthy politicians
Speaker 1: who have been banned. Is there a version where even
Speaker 1: you know, with with Dorsey at Twitter moving aside, like well,
Speaker 1: Twitter reassess and if Trump comes back onto a platform
Speaker 1: like obviously that would be a huge shift and and
Speaker 1: where things currently stands. So there's a lot of unknowns. Um,
Speaker 1: But as we get closer to mid terms, some of
Speaker 1: these things were going to be talked about. Um. Again
Speaker 1: and again. My the other favorite election story in here
Speaker 1: is that Obviously, Georgia was just a huge state last
Speaker 1: time around, and if you can believe it, it's only
Speaker 1: going to be a stranger, weirder election there because there's
Speaker 1: so many elections. We've got senence seats, we've got governor
Speaker 1: of races. It's just gonna all eyes on Georgia again.
Speaker 1: That was Bloomberg Business We get it or Joel Webber.
Speaker 1: The new issue on news stands, online at Bloomberg dot
Speaker 1: com and on the Bloomberg terminal. Don't go anywhere. More
Speaker 1: to come from the year I had issue, including companies
Speaker 1: from Airbnb to Lulu Lemon, the fifties stocks to keep
Speaker 1: an eye on. In our Bloomberg Intelligence team has done
Speaker 1: the research and we will reveal why these firms should
Speaker 1: be on your radar. Your listening to Bloomberg Business Week.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol
Speaker 1: Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovik from Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: This week, it's the year ahead issue of Bloomberg Business
Speaker 1: Week and a favorite part the fifty Companies to Watch,
Speaker 1: compiled with our Bloomberg Intelligence team putting it together. Rebecca
Speaker 1: Panty Solutions and strategy senior editor at Bloomberg business Week.
Speaker 1: She joined us along with Business Week editor Joel Weber.
Speaker 1: The way that this whole project starts as they take
Speaker 1: this massive universe of companies that they cover more than
Speaker 1: two thousand and basically start running it through their spreadsheets,
Speaker 1: and it's just like this gigantic filtering effect to come
Speaker 1: up with these fifty and really excited about them because
Speaker 1: it's not they're not hard calls. They're not you know,
Speaker 1: buy and sell recomm conditions. That's not what we're going
Speaker 1: to get from Bloomberg Intelligence. It's I think it's more
Speaker 1: interesting and perhaps nuanced than that, because we think of
Speaker 1: them as just companies to watch. Some of them have
Speaker 1: positive sentiments, some of them have negative sentiment, but they're
Speaker 1: just ones that we think in that you're ahead, are
Speaker 1: going to be really, really, really interesting companies. Yes, So Rebecca,
Speaker 1: come on in here and talk a little bit about
Speaker 1: some of these companies here. I mean, the one that
Speaker 1: I want, the one that jumped out at me was
Speaker 1: was Airbnb, because I feel like I've been watching Airbnb
Speaker 1: for years at this point after it's huge ip O
Speaker 1: and the way the company was able to recover during
Speaker 1: the pandemic after laying off so many people, Why how
Speaker 1: did Airbnb make the cut? Yeah? I think um, airbb
Speaker 1: will be quite familiar to a lot of us who
Speaker 1: wanted to travel during the pandemic but didn't feel safe
Speaker 1: at a hotel for example. So bookings have been up
Speaker 1: and interestingly they've done really really well with long stays
Speaker 1: to people staying for kind of weeks on edge um. Now,
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Intelligence analysts feel like Airbnb sets itself apart
Speaker 1: from rivals with the brand advantage, so it's very recognizable
Speaker 1: and it doesn't even really need to spend that much
Speaker 1: in marketing. So that's where Booberg Intelligence as investors should
Speaker 1: be watching this company. Okay, so another one that I
Speaker 1: love and and by the way, can we just all
Speaker 1: say when it's like whatever whatever the weather was was
Speaker 1: at nineteen, it feels like it's like single digits, like
Speaker 1: I'm ready for travel. So so there's also you know,
Speaker 1: New Year's Resolutions, um, Lululemon another one that's on that
Speaker 1: on the list um, and it's not even they're bigger
Speaker 1: than just ath lie leisure Ware now right right, Rebecca
Speaker 1: like that their acquisition of Mirror has sort of changed
Speaker 1: what the company kind of looks like. Talk to us
Speaker 1: more about why Lululemon is on the list. Yeah, definitely, definitely,
Speaker 1: And I think the idea of working out at home
Speaker 1: might have seemed like a niche thing before the pandemic.
Speaker 1: You know, not everyone has an in home gym, but
Speaker 1: um U. Then in the acquisition of Mirror, actually it
Speaker 1: was quite wild time. This is the the at home
Speaker 1: gym where you can see your workout in the mirror.
Speaker 1: Um So, like Peloton, they've done really well with that
Speaker 1: move them and also has in store events, but they've
Speaker 1: they've been doing so really. I guess the point is
Speaker 1: more than just the yoga pants, and and that's reflected
Speaker 1: in the in the positive outlook. I gotta say, I'm
Speaker 1: waiting for somebody to be like mass or do you
Speaker 1: have anything else but yoga pants? I mean, I know
Speaker 1: it's more than yoga pants, but yoga pants at the
Speaker 1: top that feels like work work where Hey, first Solar
Speaker 1: is also on that list. It's been around for a while.
Speaker 1: Um why is this one all of a sudden popping
Speaker 1: up on the list? Rebecca. Yeah, I think one of
Speaker 1: the things that might be surprising to people who don't
Speaker 1: follow the solar industry super closely, is that it's no
Speaker 1: longer super expensive. Um, you know, it had this reputation
Speaker 1: of being, you know, a space that was just never
Speaker 1: going to get mainstream, but actually solar is the most
Speaker 1: cost competitive supply source for electric power now. And first
Speaker 1: Solar is the largest US panel maker. They're investing at
Speaker 1: home and abroad, and they've just won a major order
Speaker 1: from the oil major BP and lights gm VP, which
Speaker 1: is a renewables company that BC has a share, and
Speaker 1: so there definitely want to watch. Okay, let's talk a
Speaker 1: little bit about the Asia Pacific region and and see,
Speaker 1: uh it's Southeast Asia's biggest gaming and e commerce company.
Speaker 1: I think people who I don't know might have been
Speaker 1: following some growth names in the last couple of years
Speaker 1: would no see because it was up nearly four but
Speaker 1: it did not perform that well in only up lies
Speaker 1: it on the list for Yeah. So the thing with
Speaker 1: these these mobile gaming companies like sees that they've got
Speaker 1: there's huge number of players. Um you know, she's got
Speaker 1: seven hundred million active players where it's free fire game,
Speaker 1: and now it's branching into all sorts of news services,
Speaker 1: including online grocery delivery and fintech. And so the Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Intelligence analysts are saying, look, they've got seven her a
Speaker 1: million active players are free fire that they can cross
Speaker 1: market their new services too, So that's a huge bonus
Speaker 1: for them. We haven't if we're going through regions. We've
Speaker 1: hit us, We've hit Asia. Let's bring it around to Mia.
Speaker 1: What's a what's a company with positive sentiment in Europe
Speaker 1: that we like? Rebecca, Well, it might be kind of
Speaker 1: surprising that the Boo version Bloomberg Intelligence analysts have picked
Speaker 1: a tour operator when when so many things are still
Speaker 1: shut down. They've picked two e UM. So they are
Speaker 1: a European tour operator that the I think is poised
Speaker 1: to benefit from a return to travel. And you know,
Speaker 1: we all remember Thomas Cook's failure during the pandemic. Investors
Speaker 1: are a little cautious on to E because they just
Speaker 1: want to make sure that it's not going to follow
Speaker 1: in Thomas Cook's footsteps. But the tour Operators got restructuring
Speaker 1: going on. It's upgrading its technology and it's really changed
Speaker 1: doing the way it operates to focus on offering Childer's
Speaker 1: flexibility and access to premium resorts. So that's definitely want
Speaker 1: to look at as people start to emerge from you know,
Speaker 1: lockdowns and and go see the site. Alright, Rebecca, Robin
Speaker 1: hood Man, we talked about it a lot last year. UM,
Speaker 1: what do we need to be thinking about with this one?
Speaker 1: Because it made the list? Yeah, So Robin hood is
Speaker 1: the one that we've thought about a lot during the
Speaker 1: mean stock friends eason in UM. But now they're you know,
Speaker 1: under the thumb of regulators, including the potentially the Security
Speaker 1: is in Exchange Commission, and there's a big lawsuit in
Speaker 1: Massachusetts that could help UM decide their faith and whether
Speaker 1: they have to impose stricter investor protection rules. UM. So
Speaker 1: if they lose, that's going to be a big negative
Speaker 1: for Robin Hood UM. And if they win, well, let's see.
Speaker 1: That was Rebecca Penty, Solutions and Strategy g Senior editor
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg Business Week, who joined us along with Business
Speaker 1: Week editor Joel Weber. Be sure to check out all
Speaker 1: fifty companies. You can find the story in the magazine,
Speaker 1: on new stands, online at Bloomberg dot com, slash business Week,
Speaker 1: and on the Bloomberg terminal. We'll still come on Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Business week more from the yearhead issue, including a special
Speaker 1: report on flying tax. You're ready, Yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 1: I was looking at this, Carol, and it's like they say,
Speaker 1: they're supposed to be quieter, but I don't know where
Speaker 1: our listeners are all over, of course, but if you
Speaker 1: live in a city, you've come to understand like the
Speaker 1: th the third of of helicopters a lot. But but
Speaker 1: they're not just tricked helicopters. We're talking like little little jets.
Speaker 1: I believe it when I see it. Okay, you're ready
Speaker 1: to pay that quietly? You're ready to pay for it? Yeah? No,
Speaker 1: definitely not are you? Probably not sound like such a
Speaker 1: sour post, right, But there is one that's out there
Speaker 1: to make it kind of you know, access to a
Speaker 1: broader group of people. So we'll see about that. That's
Speaker 1: coming up next. This is Bloomberg broadcasting from the financial
Speaker 1: capital of the World Bloomberg eleven Frio in New York
Speaker 1: to Washington, d C. Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg one of
Speaker 1: six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine to the country
Speaker 1: Sirius XM Channel one, and around the globe. The Bloomberg
Speaker 1: business and Bloomberg Radio dot com. This is Bloomberg Business
Speaker 1: Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stenovan
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. In this week's the Year, I had
Speaker 1: issue a special section devoted to electric vertical takeoff and
Speaker 1: landing aircraft, better known perhaps as flying taxis. Are we
Speaker 1: moving from hype to actually hopping in one ready? Tim Um? No?
Speaker 1: Not yet, but maybe soon. Well for more on that,
Speaker 1: and a look at the leading players and where they
Speaker 1: stand and I guess where they fly, and whether infrastructure
Speaker 1: is actually up to enough to handle these things. I mean, look,
Speaker 1: we can't even get an infrastructure deal past right, Okay,
Speaker 1: so I got the bridges around here, Yeah, exactly. Let's
Speaker 1: check in with Bloomberg's are of hyper Drive A K
Speaker 1: Senior editor with our Bloomberg Green team, Demetra Cassiidis, demitra Um.
Speaker 1: Why should we be paying attention to ev tall companies
Speaker 1: this year? Well, we should be paying attention to them
Speaker 1: because they're coming and there have been big investments, notably
Speaker 1: by UH and big orders by major commercial airlines. So
Speaker 1: for a while we were thinking, Okay, these are being
Speaker 1: built and people are pouring money into them, but how
Speaker 1: are they going to be used and are they really
Speaker 1: going to become part of the kind of airspace infrastructure
Speaker 1: wherever we're talking about, And it's looking now like more
Speaker 1: and more there's a lot of interest in how these
Speaker 1: can be utilized also buy airlines, to get people to
Speaker 1: airports and in many other ways. So I think that's
Speaker 1: why we should be paying attention to it because if
Speaker 1: moving ahead, the technology has developed, they're trying to plan
Speaker 1: for the infrastructure and they're really coming um and they
Speaker 1: might in fact make travel a lot easier. Well, what's
Speaker 1: interesting too, and what jumped out in this coverage is
Speaker 1: the amount of major airlines. You know, You're United's, You're
Speaker 1: all the big carriers. They're lining up to be involved
Speaker 1: in this, and they're even in some cases backing it. Yeah, indeed,
Speaker 1: and that is you know, that started to really take
Speaker 1: hold in by the end of the summer into the fall.
Speaker 1: What we've noticed where there were pretty big orders by
Speaker 1: many of the major carriers. We focus in on the
Speaker 1: lead story on Virgin for example, and their order and
Speaker 1: their work with a company called Vertical, And you know,
Speaker 1: there's there's a lot that's going on with the airline
Speaker 1: industry right now and I think that this is one
Speaker 1: piece of them looking for ways to figure out how
Speaker 1: to bring in other revenue streams and how for some
Speaker 1: of what's been going on, and how to make the
Speaker 1: travel experience possibly something that you know, is better for travelers,
Speaker 1: but also that they can attach some kind of a
Speaker 1: premium cost to if they set up a pickup point
Speaker 1: and they can get you to the airport faster with
Speaker 1: the company that they've signed up with. You know, they're
Speaker 1: very interested in that. It's not just a case of fomo, right,
Speaker 1: like the carriers are just lining up because they just
Speaker 1: they don't want to maybe miss out. They actually see
Speaker 1: a practical use here. I think I think that that
Speaker 1: is true there. You know, there's still a question of
Speaker 1: a bit of foamo, but at the at the numbers
Speaker 1: of orders that we're seeing and for what this will cost,
Speaker 1: and again the commitment that you're going to need to make,
Speaker 1: you know, I think it definitely goes beyond fomo. And
Speaker 1: for now it really does appear to be um an
Speaker 1: avenue that they believe will be worthwhile for them and
Speaker 1: will enhance the travel experience for the customers. Hey, what
Speaker 1: is the actual experience for people who are not in
Speaker 1: one of these vehicles. And I'm wondering because of the
Speaker 1: sound that is associated with helicopters. Now I know these
Speaker 1: are electric, some even have you know, uh, instead of rotors,
Speaker 1: have actual jet engines, But are they are they allowed
Speaker 1: like helicopters because of the displacement of air Look, a
Speaker 1: lot of this is what they tell us these of
Speaker 1: because because we wonder how this is all going to work,
Speaker 1: is we don't actually have I mean, there have been
Speaker 1: test flights and there have been there certainly have been
Speaker 1: ways in which you know, you do have an experience
Speaker 1: and you see it. They are quieter. Um, you know,
Speaker 1: they're safer given the technology that's involved. Eventually, uh as
Speaker 1: crazy as the sounds, the goal for these is too
Speaker 1: now we're talking way into the future, for these to
Speaker 1: be autonomous, not just electric, and for these to be pilotless.
Speaker 1: That is a very very long term goal. I mean
Speaker 1: right now, we talk in the section about the challenges
Speaker 1: of regular regulatory approvals for these types of aircraft, and
Speaker 1: we're talked about it in the context of these operating
Speaker 1: with pilots, so it will become even that much harder
Speaker 1: when you're putting together a proposition of pilotless, but they're
Speaker 1: they're more efficient because they're electric, they are quieter because
Speaker 1: they're electric, they're safer and that's that's all part of
Speaker 1: the experience. A big thank you to Bloomberg's Czar of
Speaker 1: hyper Drive, also known as senior editor with our Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Green team, Dimitra Casson. Needs still to come. We're going
Speaker 1: to continue with this week's the Year Ahead issue what
Speaker 1: we all as consumers might expect in including big releases
Speaker 1: from Hollywood on the actual big screen back in theaters.
Speaker 1: We're talking about to e V fever from electric trucks,
Speaker 1: plus Biogen's Alzheimer's drug in the hot seat, the fur
Speaker 1: industry's last gasp. Consumer trends to come. That is next,
Speaker 1: Mrs Bloomberg, you're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol
Speaker 1: Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovich from Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: We are all in Ono. So too is this week's
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Week with its annual of the Year Ahead issue,
Speaker 1: including a deep dive into how we consume things. Tim So,
Speaker 1: back to the theaters, perhaps maybe jumping into electric trucks.
Speaker 1: I think yeah, for a lot of people and a
Speaker 1: lot of companies. Certainly what about wearing fur Carol, I
Speaker 1: don't see it on you. Yeah no, not not for me,
Speaker 1: but hey, something for everyone. In this section of the
Speaker 1: issue absolutely covers a lot of ground. Blueboard. Business Week
Speaker 1: Assistant Managing Editor Jim Ellis is here with the Rundown gym.
Speaker 1: We talked a lot about e VS one. Now battery
Speaker 1: powered trucks are in the spotlight. So what do we
Speaker 1: need to be watching out for. I mean, it's going
Speaker 1: to be a real battle of between the large established
Speaker 1: truck makers like GM and Ford and Tesla. I mean,
Speaker 1: what happened when the car business was that the main
Speaker 1: companies set back, especially the US companies, just sort of
Speaker 1: set back and let Tesla basically build this market and
Speaker 1: um and one reason was not that they didn't have
Speaker 1: an interest in it, but simply that the car business
Speaker 1: in the US doesn't make a lot of money. The
Speaker 1: truck businesses where they make all their money, and so
Speaker 1: therefore they didn't seem to worry about out you know,
Speaker 1: sort of uh elon Musk making himself into the world's
Speaker 1: richest man, until it actually hit them, which is that
Speaker 1: Tesla is going to bring out the cyber truck, and
Speaker 1: that is going to be something that goes right at
Speaker 1: the heart of the profits of GM and Ford. And
Speaker 1: so therefore they have gotten serious about electric trucks and
Speaker 1: that's going to be the real battleground this year. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean, and and Ford's actually off to a pretty
Speaker 1: good start. Two thousand customers roughly have put down a
Speaker 1: hundred dollars to reserve the electric F one fifty lightning pickups.
Speaker 1: I think it's pretty cool and it's actually not that expensive.
Speaker 1: Jim um is, does Ford have what it takes to
Speaker 1: to kind of beat Tesla at its own game? Where
Speaker 1: or maybe it's not even a fair question because kind
Speaker 1: of you know, trucks are are are GM and Ford's game? Right? Well? Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean you you you've raised the right question, which
Speaker 1: is um, you know, for when it comes to trucks,
Speaker 1: you know, Ford is the truck leader. The F one
Speaker 1: fifty is the most popular vehicle in the US car
Speaker 1: our truck, I mean, and so it is uh, um,
Speaker 1: you know, it's their business to lose. Um. Likewise, the Silverado,
Speaker 1: which is always vying with the F one fifty, is
Speaker 1: the big truck in the US. But the difference is
Speaker 1: that this is the market that hasn't been around before,
Speaker 1: this whole notion of a truck that is not gasoline powered,
Speaker 1: and so that makes it difficult to know whether the
Speaker 1: consumer loyalty that was built up over years in UM
Speaker 1: you know, sort of GM and and and and and
Speaker 1: for its trucks is going to run over into the
Speaker 1: e V world. I mean, one of the reasons that
Speaker 1: the pricing of these trucks is so important is that
Speaker 1: UM Detroit for a long time thought that electric trucks
Speaker 1: were going to be so expensive and not able to
Speaker 1: actually do the hauling and towing that trucks were expected
Speaker 1: to that they sort of thought obably a lot of time.
Speaker 1: But what's happened is battery prices have come way down
Speaker 1: over the last few years, and the public imagination has
Speaker 1: been sort of sparked by electric cars, and so all
Speaker 1: of a sudden, a lot of people, particularly UH construction
Speaker 1: firms and and and commercial vehicles have started to think, well,
Speaker 1: maybe an e V truck will work for me as well.
Speaker 1: That has sort of pushed the American automakers starts to
Speaker 1: start saying, well, we don't have to just do fancy
Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollar e v trucks like the Hummer. Instead,
Speaker 1: what we're gonna do is jump in around the forty
Speaker 1: dollar mark and try to do work truck versions that
Speaker 1: are existing. Basic truck owners can sort of say, way
Speaker 1: into that's gonna be a it's gonna be a test
Speaker 1: to see if people will prefer to go to the
Speaker 1: cyber truck because it's new and it's sexy, it's a
Speaker 1: hot company, or do they want to stick with brands
Speaker 1: that they know Jim. In the meantime, we've seen the
Speaker 1: entertainment industry focus largely on streaming during the pandemic. Now
Speaker 1: Hollywood is heading back to theaters. Is is in person cinema?
Speaker 1: I mean, is it really? Yeah? It's skeptical of this
Speaker 1: because it's like, each time we think that we're gonna
Speaker 1: go back to some sort of return to there's some
Speaker 1: sort of new variant. And with consumers getting so used
Speaker 1: to watching this stuff from their couch, are we really
Speaker 1: going to go back to theaters? Well, that is the
Speaker 1: big test for the industry in two however, they want
Speaker 1: to test it. I mean, they are aggressively starting to
Speaker 1: put movies back into theatrical release, as opposed to last
Speaker 1: year when a lot of things were were released simultaneously
Speaker 1: theatrically and on streaming or introduced on streaming. That, however,
Speaker 1: is not the greatest financial model. It turned out that
Speaker 1: you get less revenue that way. Surprise and um. You
Speaker 1: don't build a lot of sort of excitement about a
Speaker 1: film that will lead you to um, you know, have
Speaker 1: an installed base of viewers who want to see it
Speaker 1: the next time out if you want to build a franchise.
Speaker 1: So therefore they really want to get out there and
Speaker 1: get people back into the theater seats. Obviously, theater owners
Speaker 1: also want to get people back out because they make
Speaker 1: their money not from ticket sales, but from all that
Speaker 1: popcorn and soda that we know consume while we're there.
Speaker 1: Oh come on, who eats it? Who? Come on? Because
Speaker 1: families to go to a movie, and that's one of
Speaker 1: the issues. Your families to go to films, um spend
Speaker 1: huge amounts of money average about you know, if you
Speaker 1: take a family of four, the average now in a
Speaker 1: cineplex is about approaching ninety dollars to take them out.
Speaker 1: So there there's actually a lot of money to be
Speaker 1: made in the concessions business. But you can't have concession
Speaker 1: sales if you don't have people coming out to theaters.
Speaker 1: And people don't want to come out to theaters because
Speaker 1: of COVID, so you have to come up with some
Speaker 1: sort of great events thing to make them come out.
Speaker 1: Is that a sign that, listen, you give us a
Speaker 1: good film, we're going to go see it on the
Speaker 1: big screen, right and and and you know they didn't
Speaker 1: think that would work, and instead, um, The Spider Man
Speaker 1: No Way Home is made already one point three billion
Speaker 1: hours in theaters only, and so and it didn't open
Speaker 1: until mid December, and so you know, it was just
Speaker 1: in the last two weeks of last year. It was
Speaker 1: the biggest movie of the year. It only ran two
Speaker 1: weeks in that year. And so it's suddenly there's something
Speaker 1: going on. So lots and lots of producers and studios
Speaker 1: and talent are suddenly saying, my god. You know, people
Speaker 1: do want to go out, and we have to give
Speaker 1: them a reason to do that. And so we're going
Speaker 1: to see more of the big name sort of attempts
Speaker 1: to get back out there. Hey, I want to get
Speaker 1: to another story that you guys cover in this section
Speaker 1: in the year head of issue Jim, and that has
Speaker 1: to do with a drug from Biogen, the first new
Speaker 1: Alzheimer's treatment in almost twenty years. We got some news
Speaker 1: this week that wasn't necessarily so good for them. UM,
Speaker 1: what's important about this one? I mean it seems like
Speaker 1: it's a big one. Alzheimer's has been I feel like
Speaker 1: one of those diseases ailments that it's just been hard
Speaker 1: to find a really good treatment for, right. I mean
Speaker 1: it is UM, you know, it affects I guess just
Speaker 1: in the US alone about six million people, and UM,
Speaker 1: there's no great treatment for it. And people have been
Speaker 1: really excited over this drug from Biogen called algo helm
Speaker 1: Um because it looked the show some promise or it's
Speaker 1: extremely controversial drug. UM. A bunch of doctors on the
Speaker 1: FDA advisory committee. UM, we're concerned that it really wasn't
Speaker 1: that effective and that it didn't really slow the progression
Speaker 1: of Alzheimer's. And so when the FDA approved this drug
Speaker 1: last summer, a bunch of the advisors resigned, and so
Speaker 1: that has has put it on the you know, sort
Speaker 1: of on the in the news. Has been a controversial
Speaker 1: and UM, it didn't get a lot of sales right
Speaker 1: off as extremely expensive. UM, so it was over fifty
Speaker 1: dollars a year. It's also difficult to administer because it's
Speaker 1: not a it's not a pill, it's not just a shot,
Speaker 1: but it's a series of monthly intravenous infusions. And even
Speaker 1: with that, it still seemed to have less efficacy than
Speaker 1: maybe even the third So a lot of doctors are saying,
Speaker 1: is it's really you know, it's this really helpful treatment,
Speaker 1: and a lot of insurers are saying, why should we
Speaker 1: spend the money? And so finally, the latest sort of
Speaker 1: strike against it came this week when the when Medicare,
Speaker 1: Medicare big health coverage system for sixty three million elderly
Speaker 1: you know, suddenly said well we think that um right now,
Speaker 1: it ought to only be reimbursed for people who are
Speaker 1: in clinical trials, which is a big sign that they
Speaker 1: are questioning the efficacy of this drug and they want
Speaker 1: to see it proven. And that's uh, that's important because
Speaker 1: Medicare is the biggest potential payer for this, and Medicare
Speaker 1: has already said that it's going to make a final
Speaker 1: decision on whether to cover it by April. But if
Speaker 1: it's now coming out and saying well, we think we
Speaker 1: are to only you know, look at the people were
Speaker 1: in test programs right now. That doesn't bode well for Biogen.
Speaker 1: That's Bloomberg Business Week Assistant Managing editor Jim Ellis, And
Speaker 1: that was up the first hour of the weekend edition
Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Business Week from Bloomberg Radio. I'm Carol Messer,
Speaker 1: Are you sure you're not gonna work for UM? I
Speaker 1: can be can I could be convinced. I actually do
Speaker 1: have a jacket with for on it. I know, I
Speaker 1: hate to say I do, I I but I don't know.
Speaker 1: I mean, I didn't kind of realize it was real
Speaker 1: for until after I bought it. But Carol, it's cozy,
Speaker 1: it's warm. It's gonna be in trouble for saying that. Well,
Speaker 1: what's interesting in the article too, is, you know, as
Speaker 1: we move towards sustainability and clothing, like you think about
Speaker 1: something that has made forgive me, I'm not proer con,
Speaker 1: but something that can be passed down because it lasts,
Speaker 1: whether it's for you know, the leather like these things last.
Speaker 1: I know, animal didn't last. I know. And that's why
Speaker 1: this this whole idea, UM, it's tricky, and you've got
Speaker 1: folks like Gucci and why I start saying we're not
Speaker 1: gonna use for anymore? Right, so they're moving on alright.
Speaker 1: As we mentioned, that does wrap up the first hour
Speaker 1: of the weekend edition at Bloomberg Business Week. From Bloomberg
Speaker 1: rad I'm Carol Masser and I'm Tim Stanov. Coming up
Speaker 1: in our next hour. The biggest danger to the global
Speaker 1: economy this year. Guess what? It's not the pandemic. Wait what? Yeah? Exactly,
Speaker 1: Plus a go to voice throughout the pandemic for us.
Speaker 1: We're talking about Alan Patrick Off of Greycroft. He's looking
Speaker 1: at the coming year of venture capital investing and more
Speaker 1: and no alcoholic wines. Yeah, you heard me right, wines. Well,
Speaker 1: beer without alcohol has grown in popularity over the last
Speaker 1: I do like it over the last couple of years.
Speaker 1: The question is can they do the same thing with wine. Also,
Speaker 1: the off road culture that's bringing luxury to the woods
Speaker 1: by car made on that alright, More from the year
Speaker 1: ahead issue that's coming up. This is Bloombergging. This is
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Week inside from the reporters and editors who
Speaker 1: bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business,
Speaker 1: finance and tech news. As it happened Sloomberg Business Week
Speaker 1: with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stenovin on
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. Hi, I'm Carol Masser and I'm Tim stan
Speaker 1: Plenty ahead in our second hour of the weekend edition
Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Business Week. The issue this week it is
Speaker 1: all about the year ahead, including this year's biggest worries
Speaker 1: when it comes to the global economy, and on a
Speaker 1: lighter note, the pursuit of some finer things, from off
Speaker 1: roading in style to wine sticker shocks and really know
Speaker 1: one what you eat. Yeah, we're getting down into the
Speaker 1: micro organisms on that one. We also have some thoughts
Speaker 1: on the startup space for this year as well from
Speaker 1: a well known name in VC who has been investing
Speaker 1: for half a century. We're talking about Alan patrick Off.
Speaker 1: First up this hour the year ahead cover story the
Speaker 1: biggest Dangers to the economy this year. It might be
Speaker 1: a surprise to a lot of you. It relates to
Speaker 1: a couple of this week's big events. Monetary policy, which
Speaker 1: we heard a lot about again this week in the
Speaker 1: US from FED Chief J Powell and and other members
Speaker 1: of the FED, along with an inflation print in the
Speaker 1: US that hit a thirty nine year high. All of
Speaker 1: that was front and center this week. For more, let's
Speaker 1: bring in our senior executive editor for Economics at Bloomberg,
Speaker 1: head of Bloomberg Economics, Stephanie Flanders. She writes about things
Speaker 1: like inflation, monetary policy, and getting the global economy wrong
Speaker 1: that will be indeed on everyone's minds. Stephaniely joining us
Speaker 1: from London. So, Stephanie, central bankers under the microscope perhaps
Speaker 1: even more this year. Tell us why, Well, it's because
Speaker 1: we're really going to find out this year whether the
Speaker 1: economy has changed in a sort of lasting way as
Speaker 1: a result of COVID or is actually just going through
Speaker 1: a phase. The supply chain issues, the inflation, all the
Speaker 1: things that strange things we're seeing in the labor market
Speaker 1: where people you can't find people to work for you,
Speaker 1: even though there seemed to be plenty of people not
Speaker 1: not working, and all of those things. Economists are kind
Speaker 1: of assuming, and indeed the Federal Reserve is kind of
Speaker 1: assuming that by the end of this year that will
Speaker 1: all have gone away, and that we will be more
Speaker 1: or less back ontract to a sort of normal economy.
Speaker 1: And there so they're assuming they won't necessarily have to
Speaker 1: do that much to stop inflation, and they won't have
Speaker 1: to worry that much about labor shortages in a few
Speaker 1: months time. But what if there are What if they
Speaker 1: just call the post COVID recovery wrong? And that's something
Speaker 1: I go through in my Year Ahead piece. You know,
Speaker 1: they end up doing too much to combat inflation or
Speaker 1: too little. You can't help thinking they're likely to get
Speaker 1: It's such a difficult writing this balance this year is
Speaker 1: so hard. I can't help thinking they're going to mess
Speaker 1: up one way or the other. But like, where's the
Speaker 1: playbook on this? Right? Where's the playbook right? Right? Going
Speaker 1: back to the seventies, thing, you know is this, are
Speaker 1: we now in a world where we should worry more
Speaker 1: about negative hits to supply coming from maybe the oil
Speaker 1: sector and increases in inflation? Or are we still more
Speaker 1: or less in that low interest rate, low inflation world
Speaker 1: where it's mostly prices, are you know, falling more than
Speaker 1: their rising ten or twenty years. It's definitely what I
Speaker 1: love about this. It's obviously taking a global perspective right
Speaker 1: because we've seen supply chain disruptions because of COVID. It's
Speaker 1: a global phenomenon. At the same time, you point out
Speaker 1: in in your remarks that the US, I mean, generates
Speaker 1: approximately one quarter of world output. How important is what
Speaker 1: the US does in terms of impacting the global economic
Speaker 1: and market outlook? And I think that's another thing we're
Speaker 1: going to find out. Obviously, the US has been the
Speaker 1: sort of the big player for decades, really setting the
Speaker 1: tone for the global economy, maybe even more than you
Speaker 1: would have expected the last ten or twenty years, because
Speaker 1: by and large, the US has done better than most countries,
Speaker 1: so a lot of the investment has flowed there. Certainly
Speaker 1: the stock market in the US has done a lot
Speaker 1: better than any other stock market in the world. But
Speaker 1: you know, you have China now um punching at least
Speaker 1: at its weight, going its own way in monetary policy.
Speaker 1: This year, for the first time, you've got the Central
Speaker 1: Bank of China is actually going to be cutting interest
Speaker 1: rates as the Federal Reserve is raising and we've never
Speaker 1: had that before. We've always had the China having to
Speaker 1: follow anything the Fed did. So that's an interesting moment
Speaker 1: that do we start to have a different sphere of
Speaker 1: activity in China and around China, and are they setting
Speaker 1: the tone for global growth just as much as the US.
Speaker 1: We kind of we'll find that out a bit. But
Speaker 1: of course large parts of the world, particularly emerging market economies,
Speaker 1: are going to be looking at every step in the
Speaker 1: way that the FED takes because we know from history
Speaker 1: that when the Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates, actually
Speaker 1: the people who often feel the pain. I'm not in
Speaker 1: the US. They're the country's at the sharp end who
Speaker 1: already vulnerable, you know, whether it's Argentina, Brazil, Turkey this time.
Speaker 1: I think those emerging marketing economies what's interesting, and I
Speaker 1: know your team has covered this a lot. I think
Speaker 1: it's an important factor, the diversion or the separation of
Speaker 1: what the FED does versus the People's Bank of China,
Speaker 1: and you you point out in your column, you know,
Speaker 1: for the first time in living memory's China is going
Speaker 1: to be moving exactly the opposite direction from the FED.
Speaker 1: I do wonder what that means. If the US is
Speaker 1: doing raising rates, China isn't. You know, there'll be cheap
Speaker 1: money still around. They're in different parts of the world.
Speaker 1: What that means in terms of economic growth and really
Speaker 1: you know, financial financial markets. Who benefits who doesn't? Yeah,
Speaker 1: and so that's one of the things you know that
Speaker 1: certainly investors have usually said, you know, this is the
Speaker 1: stage in the cycle where you might expect the rest
Speaker 1: of the world to sort of catch up a bit
Speaker 1: of the ground that they lost. You know, the US
Speaker 1: starts slowing down, so the opportunities are in the other
Speaker 1: parts of the world which are still a bit sort
Speaker 1: of earlier in their cycle. I think that could possibly
Speaker 1: happen in Europe because the European Central MAC is still
Speaker 1: going to have interest rates super super low, is not
Speaker 1: going to be raising them this year, and there's something
Speaker 1: very surprising happens. They have trouble generating any inflation. They've
Speaker 1: not got much even now. Um, so I think there's
Speaker 1: that sort of pulling down interest rates, that global impact.
Speaker 1: And yeah, you're right, as I said, you know, China
Speaker 1: is going to be plotting its own path. I guess
Speaker 1: we have to remember though that the reason that China's
Speaker 1: doing that is that they've already had slow down in
Speaker 1: their economy. They're trying to kind of maintain growth. We're
Speaker 1: going to have slower growth in China in luck this
Speaker 1: year and last year than we've seen in decades of
Speaker 1: its very rapid development MATT could be destabilizing for that region.
Speaker 1: If you think of all the people who have been
Speaker 1: building their own wealth and their own economic growth on
Speaker 1: feeding that amazing Chinese sort of engine economy. If it's
Speaker 1: slowing down, that could have an impact unexpected impact on
Speaker 1: people around the world. Thank you so much, Stephanie Flanders,
Speaker 1: who heads up the Bloomberg Economics team, also senior executive
Speaker 1: editor for Economics at a Bloomberg. Thanks Stephanie. Coming up,
Speaker 1: he's been investing in the venture capital space for fifty
Speaker 1: years and counting. Will hear what is on his radar
Speaker 1: this year? We're talking about Alan patrick Off. You're listening
Speaker 1: to Bloomberg Business Week. This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim
Speaker 1: Spinovik from Bloomberg Radio. We love our guests and those
Speaker 1: that come on to chat with us, no doubt about it,
Speaker 1: and some of them especially so for their ability and
Speaker 1: willingness to go to a lot of places with us
Speaker 1: from an informed vantage point. We talk politics, economics, investing
Speaker 1: so much more. One of those individuals is Alan patrick Off,
Speaker 1: an early venture capitalist who helped build and gross, such
Speaker 1: companies as oh, you might have heard of these Carol
Speaker 1: America Online Office depot. Uh, this computer company that was
Speaker 1: once called Apple Computer, also audible. He's got a great
Speaker 1: sense of trends to watch thanks to his experience as
Speaker 1: a venture capitalist for wow, half a century. It's a
Speaker 1: long long time. Alan patrick Off is Germany meritus, co
Speaker 1: founder of gray Croft. He's co founder of Primetime Partners.
Speaker 1: We talked about a lot of things. Here's some of
Speaker 1: our conversation. Well, we're starting of coming up a period
Speaker 1: of euphoria, as we ended to one, and uh, I
Speaker 1: don't see that diminishing, certainly in the near near term. Uh.
Speaker 1: There's a lot of money washing around in the institutional
Speaker 1: market in particular, and venture performance has been exceptional in
Speaker 1: the past twelve or twenty four months. So everybody is
Speaker 1: feeling quite usfork and uh, I don't see anything that's
Speaker 1: going to change that other than a surprise. And I've
Speaker 1: been in this investment becauseiness long enough to note that surprises,
Speaker 1: which are what they are called or surprise, is the
Speaker 1: one thing that kind of shakes everybody. Venture is not
Speaker 1: affected by interest rates. Uh, it really isn't affected by
Speaker 1: inflation because all these companies are we invest that are
Speaker 1: so early on that they kind of can override that
Speaker 1: with their growth trends. So where are you seeing areas
Speaker 1: of interest for two and and and where are you
Speaker 1: seeing areas of focus at least for for venture capital funding.
Speaker 1: If it is going to be another big year for
Speaker 1: venture if it is gonna be another big year for
Speaker 1: investments in returns, where is that going to happen specifically? Well, selfishly,
Speaker 1: you know, I've started in the last eighteen months a
Speaker 1: new firm coal Primetime part, which is an area that
Speaker 1: virtually was a white space, which is uh, anything that
Speaker 1: serves the age what I call the agelest community, which
Speaker 1: is enormous, getting bigger and will be the largest part
Speaker 1: of the population by growing faster with more money. And
Speaker 1: the elder older generation is living longer, and there are
Speaker 1: so many things that they need specifically in terms of
Speaker 1: product services, technologies, experiences. Uh. And it's not the same
Speaker 1: as the millennial generation where most of the focused adventure
Speaker 1: has been. But I see that as an increasing trend.
Speaker 1: We we kind of had a little bit of it
Speaker 1: to ourselves in the beginning, but I can see already
Speaker 1: that others are are encroaching on the on the area,
Speaker 1: and they're not names you would recognize because they're all
Speaker 1: really early. But I think over the next year or
Speaker 1: two you're going to hear names like a place called
Speaker 1: mom which is the one perhaps that's known, but it's
Speaker 1: an increasing trend. So that's my focus on prime Time.
Speaker 1: In terms of Graycroft, we are continue to be interested
Speaker 1: in fintech. UH. There's been a lot of interest in
Speaker 1: every form of of a new kind of deal banking, UM,
Speaker 1: any place that people can buy money. We have a
Speaker 1: company called Public which is I hate to compare, but
Speaker 1: it similar to Robin Hood in the sense that you
Speaker 1: can buy in very small fractional interests UH. And we've
Speaker 1: payment systems are increasing all the time. We have a
Speaker 1: company that's dealing in Africa called flutter Wave, which seems
Speaker 1: to have no end. It's like the square of of
Speaker 1: of Africa. UH. And growth has been enormous. So it's
Speaker 1: Fintech is a big, big area of investment. You mentioned
Speaker 1: earlier for our global audience about how there's a lot
Speaker 1: of money slashing around. That money slashing around can go
Speaker 1: into some really great interesting places. Is there any concern
Speaker 1: that some of that money is going to go into
Speaker 1: places that is bidding up areas that are going to
Speaker 1: make no sense in years to come. And I don't
Speaker 1: know whether it could be crypto n f T S, SPACs. UM.
Speaker 1: Just curious what you think you're you're bringing up the
Speaker 1: controversy It always exists as whether there's too much money
Speaker 1: chasing too a few deals. I think that we have
Speaker 1: a lot of large size funds without naming anyone in particular,
Speaker 1: but which are hedge funds or large growth funds. When
Speaker 1: you see funds that are being raised at ten and
Speaker 1: twenty billion dollars and trying to put money to work
Speaker 1: in the later stages of growth companies, inevitably you're seeing uh,
Speaker 1: bigger demand and just a limited supply of companies that
Speaker 1: can absorb that kind of capital, so they're going to
Speaker 1: be excessive. I don't think you could translate that specifically
Speaker 1: to crypto n f T s, which are you know,
Speaker 1: each one has its own, Uh, it's only area of
Speaker 1: focused me. N f T S is the latest on
Speaker 1: the horizon, uh, And I think there's a lot of
Speaker 1: interest and I think it will sort itself over time. Hey, Alan,
Speaker 1: I hope we may. We've got a few minutes left here, UM,
Speaker 1: and I love to ask you a little bit about
Speaker 1: You've got a book coming out in May, No Red Lights,
Speaker 1: reflections on life, fifty years in venture capital and never
Speaker 1: driving alone. UM. Looking forward to it, and I hope
Speaker 1: when it comes out you'll you'll come on and talk
Speaker 1: to us about it. UM, tell us about why you
Speaker 1: wanted to write a book. It's nice to you to ask. Actually,
Speaker 1: this is the first time anything about the book has
Speaker 1: actually been on the air at any form. So this
Speaker 1: is the first time because it was just released on
Speaker 1: Amazon for preorder this week. Yeah, you know, I've been
Speaker 1: asked for many years to write down things that have
Speaker 1: happened in my life. And because I you know, being
Speaker 1: around in the business fifty years. Actually I've been in
Speaker 1: the investment business sixty five years, but the venturing capital
Speaker 1: business fifty years. You become a legend just by living
Speaker 1: long enough, nothing more than it. And so I am
Speaker 1: a living legend. I used to be the founder of
Speaker 1: the venture industry, that I was the father of it,
Speaker 1: and I became the grandfather of it. I don't know
Speaker 1: what the next stage that'll be. I'll be the former.
Speaker 1: Uh so you know, I I spent the last year
Speaker 1: or two writing this and uh, you know, I hope
Speaker 1: it will be of interest to some people. It's really
Speaker 1: designed to Honestly, the real reason is I am eighty seven. Uh,
Speaker 1: I just tied a track coach to try to walk
Speaker 1: run the marathon. Next note, Wow, I live a very
Speaker 1: active life, as you announced my two affiliations, and I
Speaker 1: wanna be an inspiration to people and say, if I
Speaker 1: can do it, I keep going at this stage, why
Speaker 1: can't you. That's Alan patrick Off, chairman emeritus and co
Speaker 1: founder of Greycroft, co founder of Primetime Partners, as well
Speaker 1: his new book coming out this year. It's called No
Speaker 1: Red Lights, Reflections on Life fifty years in Venture Capital
Speaker 1: and Never Driving Alone. It's due out in the spring.
Speaker 1: I'm so glad we got to talk to him about
Speaker 1: it a little bit and I can't wait to actually
Speaker 1: get into it with him once it's published. And you know,
Speaker 1: we kind of got the exclusive right we really talked
Speaker 1: about the book at all yet publicly. It was pretty cool.
Speaker 1: I think it was my favorite part of that conversation.
Speaker 1: All right, still to come and tell it's about to
Speaker 1: relinquish it's chip making crown to Samsung It's a symbolic
Speaker 1: blow for the US at a time when the geopolitics
Speaker 1: of semiconductors are trickier than ever. This is Bloomberg Broadcasting
Speaker 1: from the financial capital of the world, Bloomberg Eleve in
Speaker 1: Rio in New York to Washington, d C. Bloomberg to Boston,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg one, O six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine
Speaker 1: to the country Sirius XM Chamber one, and around the
Speaker 1: globe the Bloomberg Business and Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick
Speaker 1: Takes Tim Stenovin on Bloomberg Radio. Well, this week Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Business Week's magazine, it's all about the year ahead issue,
Speaker 1: those things to keep on your radar in two and Tim.
Speaker 1: That includes, of course, the semiconductor space. Big story last year,
Speaker 1: it's going to continue to be so this year. Innovation,
Speaker 1: disruptors and just plain old competition playing its way out. Yeah.
Speaker 1: The big question is who reigned supreme? And how about
Speaker 1: the long time you know, Kings of chip making or
Speaker 1: king of chip making? Does it remain king? We have
Speaker 1: our own King of chipmaking. It's in king. He's us
Speaker 1: semi conductor at networking reporter at Bloomberg News. Let's talk
Speaker 1: a little bit about Intel, because the company is on
Speaker 1: the brink of losing its status as the world's largest chipmaker.
Speaker 1: I thought that girl Singer came back to Intel to
Speaker 1: prevent this from happening. Yeah, that's what he's been talking about.
Speaker 1: He's very, very focused on basically restoring Intel to its dominance.
Speaker 1: You remember when he left in two thousand and nine,
Speaker 1: until it was at the peak of its pals, it
Speaker 1: was the largest chip makup by market value, the largest
Speaker 1: chip maker by revenue, the leader in terms of technology,
Speaker 1: the best plants, the best profit margins. You know, it
Speaker 1: really was a leader, and now it's not. It's arguably
Speaker 1: going to lose the last of those titles, which is
Speaker 1: the one by revenue in two thousand for two thousand
Speaker 1: and twenty one, and really everything that he said since
Speaker 1: he took over last year is look, I'm going to
Speaker 1: get Intel back. I'm going to put Intel back where
Speaker 1: it belongs. So, hey, Ian, it's still going to be
Speaker 1: a dominant player Intel that is, But what's the significance
Speaker 1: of you know, Intel and the history of what it
Speaker 1: has done in terms of chipmaking and just really Silicon Valley.
Speaker 1: How is that just kind of remarkable in terms of
Speaker 1: this shift. Yeah, I mean Intel basically taught the industry that,
Speaker 1: you know, these are the economics that matter, Moore's law
Speaker 1: that everybody quotes Good and More, the founder of Intel.
Speaker 1: It's about economics, it's about scale, it's about speed. Intel
Speaker 1: has always had the most capital to deploy. It's always
Speaker 1: moved faster. It's always made it difficult for the opposition
Speaker 1: to keep up. Now it's facing and we talked about
Speaker 1: some song in the story, but also t SMC in Taiwan,
Speaker 1: companies that have as much access to capital, that are
Speaker 1: deploying as much capital, that are running just as fast
Speaker 1: as Intel, and they're enabling lots of other companies who
Speaker 1: they manufacture for to compete and to take market share
Speaker 1: away from Intel. Clearly that's not good for Intel. As
Speaker 1: you say, it's it's still a huge company. It's seventy
Speaker 1: billion dollars of revenue is not to be sniffed at.
Speaker 1: But that kind of lead that ability to say, hey,
Speaker 1: here we are, you need to come chase me, and
Speaker 1: this is the pain that is involved in chasing me.
Speaker 1: That's gone away what do we always say about Intel's
Speaker 1: ability or packed yoursinger's ability to to pull this off? Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean it's Initially when he came, you know, back
Speaker 1: to Intel last February, said all the right things, said, Look,
Speaker 1: this isn't good enough, this is not Intel, these you know,
Speaker 1: mismanagement that's been going on while I've been away. I'm
Speaker 1: going to reverse that. Intel is back, you know, very much,
Speaker 1: beating his fist on his chest and using a lot
Speaker 1: of the throwbacks to Intel's prior leadership in terms of messaging.
Speaker 1: But then what became clear as Intel reported earnings averaged
Speaker 1: like a seven percent decline on the day after every
Speaker 1: earnings was released because those earnings were showing margins narrowing,
Speaker 1: and guess what, We're going to spend a lot of
Speaker 1: money to get us back. And so what what's really
Speaker 1: going on is saying the right things, making the right decisions, arguably,
Speaker 1: but at the same time showing what the cost is
Speaker 1: and the amount of time it might take to get
Speaker 1: Intel back to leadership. Hey, in in a world where
Speaker 1: so much of the global economy is all about services,
Speaker 1: and certainly for the United States, we don't make a
Speaker 1: lot of stuff anymore. But the opportunity with a company
Speaker 1: like Intel, where we actually make something. How important is
Speaker 1: that to the United States? And I think about you know,
Speaker 1: government intervention or government assistance here in making sure that
Speaker 1: we're still you know, making something in this global economy. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean if if you know, if you are to
Speaker 1: view it from a nation centric point of view, and
Speaker 1: Gel Singer is certainly one of those that does suit.
Speaker 1: So the chip industry is enormously important. It's a it's
Speaker 1: a fundamental piece of technology that underpins everything, and the
Speaker 1: US you know that the ability to manufacture that is
Speaker 1: really centered in only Intel and a bit in Micron.
Speaker 1: Everybody else kind of doesn't do it anymore. It's done
Speaker 1: by some song, it's done by t SMC. Those are
Speaker 1: arguably the leaders right now. And what Gel Singer has argued,
Speaker 1: and there's you know, gained some traction with politicians who
Speaker 1: are listening to him, saying, look, if we don't have this,
Speaker 1: we we lose that ability. It's not something you can
Speaker 1: just get back, you know. It's it's based on knowledge,
Speaker 1: it's based on experience, and if that's going away, maybe
Speaker 1: it's gone for good. So he's really trying to do
Speaker 1: something about that. That was Ian King, Bloomberg News u
Speaker 1: S semi Conductor and networking reporter. And we also heard
Speaker 1: this week that Taiwan's semi Conductor will be spending at
Speaker 1: least forty billion dollars to address the ongoing chip shortage.
Speaker 1: That above what Wall Street was forecasting. And that's the
Speaker 1: latest salvo from Intel's competition, a big competitor for Intel.
Speaker 1: You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week, coming up from post
Speaker 1: driving in the Great Outdoors to wine sticker shock. This
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol
Speaker 1: Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovik from Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: Your head is not just about consumer trends, getting economic
Speaker 1: and monetary policy right, or figuring out which flying taxi
Speaker 1: to cats. It's also about off roading in luxury non
Speaker 1: alcoholic wine and then dealing with well alcoholic wine. Sticker
Speaker 1: shock got my attention to Stan Well, it's the idea.
Speaker 1: It's also about analyzing micro organisms and the food you eat. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's a thing. Everybody. Welcome to the world of wellness eating. Carol,
Speaker 1: you caught up with the editor of Pursuits Chris Rouser,
Speaker 1: who gave us a heads up on some lux things
Speaker 1: to look forward to. Alright, so Chris Ella McCoy, your
Speaker 1: resident expert on all things wine. She talks about that
Speaker 1: we should get ready for some sticker shock this year.
Speaker 1: What's going on? Yeah, Ellen has a great look ahead
Speaker 1: at a lot of the different trends of next year,
Speaker 1: and unfortunately for wine lovers, one of them is that
Speaker 1: prices are going to go up. Um. Bad weather these
Speaker 1: past couple of years means that harvests were very small
Speaker 1: or even non existence in some places. And so you know,
Speaker 1: not only is inflation going on and some supply chain issues,
Speaker 1: people are paying more for bottles and quirks and labels
Speaker 1: and even barrels, but also there's just like there's not
Speaker 1: as many grapes. Um, so you could see prices really
Speaker 1: go up like ten too. So I can use my
Speaker 1: n f T s or crypto to maybe pay for
Speaker 1: it all. Yeah, you know, Um, n f T is
Speaker 1: getting attached to a lot of difference art or luxury
Speaker 1: items can kind of seem like a gimmick butt in
Speaker 1: the wine industry, people do actually think it's going to
Speaker 1: help with authentic city um, and some some big wine
Speaker 1: makers started selling wine bottles or wine experiences attached to
Speaker 1: n f t s this past year, and Ellen thinks
Speaker 1: you're going to see that more going forward, because you know,
Speaker 1: if someone comes to sell a bottle of wine of
Speaker 1: auction or directly through a dealer that that they say
Speaker 1: is an original bottle they bought many years ago. From
Speaker 1: now on, people are going to have n f T
Speaker 1: s that can prove that. It's wild. Right, you just
Speaker 1: see the explosion. I love the coverage that you guys
Speaker 1: have done, especially UH in terms of fashion and what
Speaker 1: we're seeing. It's it's really interesting. Hey, one thing, um,
Speaker 1: part of me says, no alcohol you know is coming?
Speaker 1: Why even bother But I'm gonna like open up my
Speaker 1: mind and embrace it. We're going to see more of
Speaker 1: this this year. Yes, And you know, maybe the greatest
Speaker 1: symbol that no alcohol wine has arrived is that it
Speaker 1: appeared in the latest episode and just like that these
Speaker 1: UH Sex in the City spin off Miranda, the character
Speaker 1: needs to give up drinking and so they sit around
Speaker 1: and have a picnic and drink not alcoholic line. Um.
Speaker 1: You know, we've been testing these non alcohol or low
Speaker 1: alcohol lines for a few years because the no alcohol
Speaker 1: or low alcohol movement is really catching on. And I
Speaker 1: never thought they were that terrible. Um, but I don't
Speaker 1: have the taste buds that Ellen mccoire critics does, and
Speaker 1: she was she's tried some of the new ones and
Speaker 1: she says they're actually getting pretty good. All right. Well,
Speaker 1: that's good to know. And I've been watching and just
Speaker 1: like that, so maybe I'll embrace it a little bit too. Um. Hey, golf,
Speaker 1: you do have something too in the section about the
Speaker 1: explosion of golf specifically in Asia and Saudi Arabia in
Speaker 1: the Middle East. What's going on? Yeah, so really what
Speaker 1: happened is that there's been an explosion of money related
Speaker 1: to golf in the Middle East and in Asia. Saudi
Speaker 1: Arabia's public investments on the p if UM is one
Speaker 1: of the world's largest sovereign investment sovereign wealth funds, and
Speaker 1: they have put two hundred million dollars into adventure between
Speaker 1: Saudi Golf and the Asian tour to expand the Asian
Speaker 1: tour Um. Basically, Saudi Arabia, as you know, has been
Speaker 1: investing billions of dollars into tourist infrastructure and getting people
Speaker 1: to view Saudi as a place to come and visit
Speaker 1: and sting out and stay in hotels and play golf. Um.
Speaker 1: And so Saudi also wants to boost that that whole
Speaker 1: golf culture in the region. And um, you know there's
Speaker 1: if you play in the PGA Tour in the US
Speaker 1: and you're a big pro golfer, you can't accept an
Speaker 1: appearance fee, which means you can't get a feed just
Speaker 1: for showing up. But at the Asian Tour you can.
Speaker 1: So Greg Norman, who is who's overseeing this investment into
Speaker 1: the Asian Tour from the Saudi end Uh, says, you
Speaker 1: know what, golfers should be paid for showing up actually
Speaker 1: like they are. They're the reason that people have watched
Speaker 1: these these games, and so you know they should actually
Speaker 1: get their do. And this is going to be appealing
Speaker 1: to pro golfers who may not have sort of really
Speaker 1: considered the tour as much in Asia. Interesting to see
Speaker 1: that and and certainly something to consider. Um. So let's
Speaker 1: talk a little about travel, because you guys cover it
Speaker 1: all the time. I'm in the section Nikki Extein traveling
Speaker 1: the world. She joins us now and let's bring her
Speaker 1: in because Nikki, you have an interesting story about indigenous groups.
Speaker 1: They are finally getting a seat at tourism's table. It's
Speaker 1: just it's kind of staggering that they really haven't had
Speaker 1: a voice, uh in this UM tell us what's going on.
Speaker 1: It's a kind of hard to fathom that it's taken
Speaker 1: this long for the travel industry to kind of understand
Speaker 1: that this big piece was missing from the equation, given
Speaker 1: that travelers for so long have been seeking nothing other
Speaker 1: than authenticity. But here we are in two and this
Speaker 1: is really the year that we're seeing UM Destination marketing
Speaker 1: organizations or what we call dmos, really involve all of
Speaker 1: the diverse voices of their communities in how their destinations
Speaker 1: are represented. No, Nikki, it's a really good story. And Chris,
Speaker 1: I think about when Nikki might have come to you
Speaker 1: and talked about this story. This was certainly not on
Speaker 1: my radar, but I do think about it when I
Speaker 1: travel around the country, and I think about when we,
Speaker 1: you know, are incorporating the Native American voice, it's often
Speaker 1: a very specific kind of museum type thing somewhere in
Speaker 1: the country, and it's nice to see that they're actually
Speaker 1: having Chris a bigger voice at our table. When it
Speaker 1: comes to tourism overall, they're such a big part of it. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean you just have to think about visits to
Speaker 1: like yellow Stone in Wyoming, or say you go to
Speaker 1: Mount Rushmore and you're looking at uh you're often sort
Speaker 1: of lad to look at things from a white historical perspective,
Speaker 1: and you're really on crow Land and the Lakota tribes
Speaker 1: were there too, and so now tours of these areas
Speaker 1: are incorporating uh, you know, cro cultural uh stories. When
Speaker 1: you go to a little big Horn Battlefield National Monument,
Speaker 1: they don't tell you about customers last stands, they tell
Speaker 1: you about the indigenous side of that story. Or just
Speaker 1: think about going to the south and visiting plantations and
Speaker 1: the way those stories used to be told from the
Speaker 1: perspective of the people that live in the plantation houses,
Speaker 1: and now how they're beginning to be told from the
Speaker 1: perspective of the enslaved people. Nikki, what are you hearing?
Speaker 1: I mean, it's not just in the US, right, We're
Speaker 1: seeing it also over in Australia. Um. And it sounds
Speaker 1: like there's a lot of tourism operators too that there's
Speaker 1: just the whole um, you know, awareness of this has
Speaker 1: really taken off absolutely. I think we're seeing it globally,
Speaker 1: um in some places more than others. But Australia is
Speaker 1: a great example. The government there has a really large
Speaker 1: and substantial reparations program where they're really making indigenous tourism
Speaker 1: Aboriginal tourism as we would call it in Australia, a
Speaker 1: cornerstone of what they want every itinerary to be about
Speaker 1: when people visit Australia. And the same is true in Canada,
Speaker 1: where First Nations people are becoming much more part of
Speaker 1: the tourism narrative, partially because the government is sponsoring new
Speaker 1: ways for First Nations travel business owners to actually digitize
Speaker 1: and market the products that exist so they're more visible
Speaker 1: to consumers, so it's easier for consumers to find book
Speaker 1: and then feed into those tourism economies. UM. At the
Speaker 1: end of the day, what really matters is not just
Speaker 1: that the stories are told, but that these people are
Speaker 1: involved in the in the travel economy and given jobs
Speaker 1: as guides and given the opportunity to really benefit from
Speaker 1: the massive travel industry. It's with the third largest industry
Speaker 1: in the world. I'm so glad you brought it to
Speaker 1: our attention, Nikki. Thank you so much, Nicki Eckstein, who
Speaker 1: follows all things when it comes to travel around the globe. Um,
Speaker 1: and this is just a really interesting part of this section. Nikki,
Speaker 1: thank you so much. All Right, so finally no pursuit
Speaker 1: section complete until we take a ride with our auto
Speaker 1: columnist Hannah Elliet And she's joining us now. We're adding
Speaker 1: her to the conversation. How you've an interesting story about
Speaker 1: I think that title on it is velvet Glove back Country.
Speaker 1: I mean this is about, you know, kind of going
Speaker 1: out to the back country in style, in luxury. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you know, who do you do not need a hotel
Speaker 1: to live in luxury. In fact, you could just buy
Speaker 1: a big, big rig um that has basically all of
Speaker 1: the comfort of a standard hotel and do it on
Speaker 1: your own. It's kind of great. Overloading, I wonderful. We'll
Speaker 1: be talking about this more. Tell us little bit about
Speaker 1: the folks you talked to and what you saw and
Speaker 1: what their vehicles are like, and who's all doing it. Yeah,
Speaker 1: So it's really interesting. This is a young set of
Speaker 1: um affluent educated people, a lot of entrepreneurs. I talked
Speaker 1: to one man named Eli Cogan, who is about to
Speaker 1: buy his second Earth Cruiser. These are um if you
Speaker 1: buy a new They started over three hundred thousand dollars.
Speaker 1: They're built on a midso BC truck platform, but they're
Speaker 1: totally kidded out, like Chris said. And you know, Eli
Speaker 1: is a really urbane, you know, clean cut type of sky.
Speaker 1: He is not Um, you know, the sort of like
Speaker 1: mad Max style guy that you did expect um. And
Speaker 1: you know Matthew Stillon is another guy I talked to, Sorry,
Speaker 1: Matthew scott Um. He is the founder of Adventure Imports.
Speaker 1: He said that basically the industry has compressed five years
Speaker 1: growth into about two UM. And of course due to
Speaker 1: covid um. People just want to be able to get
Speaker 1: away on their own terms, but do it in comfort.
Speaker 1: So I'm thinking Hannah Rivan is got to be doing this.
Speaker 1: Oh you know it. They are capitalizing on the moment.
Speaker 1: Their timing could not have been better. Of course, we
Speaker 1: remember they had an incredible I p O in November.
Speaker 1: At one point their value was over a hundred billion dollars.
Speaker 1: And there are one ty truck is perfectly suited to
Speaker 1: appeal to this millennial type fire um. It has a
Speaker 1: camp kitchen, it has this cool passed through storage underneath
Speaker 1: the truck that will hold UM camp gear, but also
Speaker 1: you know like UM sound boom box and speakers or
Speaker 1: the speaker in the mid center console that comes with
Speaker 1: the truck. Um you know it's Bluetooth equipped. It's pretty nice,
Speaker 1: I have to admit. And this is an expensive vehicle
Speaker 1: to I mean with the first edition Rivvyan R one
Speaker 1: t with options, you can get close to a hundred
Speaker 1: thousand dollars to the truck. Yeah, it sounds pretty cool.
Speaker 1: Al Right, guys, we get a run. Thank you so much,
Speaker 1: um Our, Thanks to you, you bet Our, Thanks to
Speaker 1: the editor Pursuits Chris Rouser Are along with Nikki Extein
Speaker 1: who joined us earlier on travel, and of course our
Speaker 1: auto columnist Hannah Elliott. Thanks you guys really appreciate it.
Speaker 1: And that wraps up the weekend edition of Bloomberg Business
Speaker 1: Week from Bloomberg Radio. Thanks so much for joining us.
Speaker 1: I'm Carol Masser and I'm Tim Stanavek. Be sure to
Speaker 1: tune into Bloomberg Business Week Monday through Friday. It starts
Speaker 1: at two pm Wall Street Time on Bloomberg Radio. You
Speaker 1: can also watch our daily broadcast on YouTube. Just search
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Global News and check out our Bloomberg Business Week podcast.
Speaker 1: You can find it at Bloomberg dot com, Apple, or
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcast. Bloomberg Business Week is available
Speaker 1: on newsstands now, at Bloomberg dot com and on the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Terminal, and you can also see me on Bloomberg Quicktake.
Speaker 1: It's available at Bloomberg dot com, slash Qt, and streaming
Speaker 1: platforms like Roku, Apple TV, Samsung TV and more. Have
Speaker 1: a great weekend. Stay safe everyone, This B bloom b