1 00:00:03,080 --> 00:00:18,079 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:23,120 Speaker 2: Hello and welcome to another episode of the Authoughts podcast. 3 00:00:23,239 --> 00:00:24,720 Speaker 2: I'm Tracy Alloway. 4 00:00:24,440 --> 00:00:25,639 Speaker 3: And I'm Joe Wisenthal. 5 00:00:25,840 --> 00:00:28,000 Speaker 2: Joe, it's nearly the end of the year we made it. 6 00:00:28,680 --> 00:00:30,120 Speaker 3: This is like year nine, isn't it. 7 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:31,120 Speaker 4: No for real? 8 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:33,400 Speaker 2: No, it's true. Next year is going to be our 9 00:00:33,560 --> 00:00:37,280 Speaker 2: ten year anniversary, so we'll have to throw some sort 10 00:00:37,280 --> 00:00:38,240 Speaker 2: of ad thoughts event. 11 00:00:38,560 --> 00:00:42,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, nothing big right now for nine. But another year, 12 00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:47,000 Speaker 3: another fascinating year, another year of learning new stuff. I'm 13 00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:48,640 Speaker 3: really enjoying it. I hope we keep doing it for 14 00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:49,000 Speaker 3: a while. 15 00:00:49,080 --> 00:00:52,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think we both did learn quite a lot, 16 00:00:52,320 --> 00:00:54,080 Speaker 2: and in fact, that is what we are going to 17 00:00:54,120 --> 00:00:57,640 Speaker 2: talk about today. So we have compiled a list of 18 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:00,880 Speaker 2: the ten most interesting things that we learned over the 19 00:01:00,920 --> 00:01:03,440 Speaker 2: past year. So you want to dive into it, let's 20 00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:03,720 Speaker 2: do it. 21 00:01:03,800 --> 00:01:06,280 Speaker 3: Let's revisit them, because you know, we do so many 22 00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:08,880 Speaker 3: episodes in the year, and I forget about some and 23 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:11,760 Speaker 3: in the compilation of this episode, they're like, oh, yeah, 24 00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:15,200 Speaker 3: I totally forgot about that particular episode. So let's use 25 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:18,600 Speaker 3: this time to sort of revisit the odd lots. In 26 00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:19,400 Speaker 3: twenty twenty four. 27 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 2: This will see at least ten factoids into your mind forever, Joe. 28 00:01:23,600 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 3: That's correct, all right. 29 00:01:25,080 --> 00:01:27,480 Speaker 2: So first on the list, we wanted to do an 30 00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:30,679 Speaker 2: episode on price pack architecture for a long time. This 31 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:34,240 Speaker 2: idea that companies are getting more sophisticated in the prices 32 00:01:34,280 --> 00:01:37,520 Speaker 2: that they're charging for, you know, different people and different things. 33 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:41,160 Speaker 2: From our episode with Lindsay Owens, executive director of the 34 00:01:41,200 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 2: Groundwork Collaborative and David Dian, the executive editor of The 35 00:01:44,720 --> 00:01:49,000 Speaker 2: American Prospect, we learned that McDonald's knows when you get paid. 36 00:01:49,640 --> 00:01:52,680 Speaker 5: So the McDonald's app is put together by a company 37 00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:56,280 Speaker 5: called Plecure, and Plecture works with Ikea, they work with 38 00:01:56,320 --> 00:02:00,440 Speaker 5: seven eleven, they work with White Castle. And the reason, 39 00:02:00,600 --> 00:02:04,680 Speaker 5: as you correctly said, Tracy, that McDonald's gives discounts on 40 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:07,480 Speaker 5: the app is because they want to get on your phone. 41 00:02:07,640 --> 00:02:09,639 Speaker 5: They want to get on your phone and be able 42 00:02:10,200 --> 00:02:14,799 Speaker 5: to figure out what you're doing on that phone, where 43 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:18,239 Speaker 5: you are at particular times of day, what your food 44 00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:22,760 Speaker 5: preferences are, what you're ordering habits are, potentially, what you're 45 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:26,359 Speaker 5: using to pay for those things, and your financial behaviors. 46 00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:30,000 Speaker 5: Through that, they're aggregating a bunch of data about you, 47 00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:34,000 Speaker 5: And we had one of the slides from this presentation 48 00:02:34,720 --> 00:02:38,640 Speaker 5: that Flexure put together that shows how they are using 49 00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:41,600 Speaker 5: this data. And one of the things that they were 50 00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:45,840 Speaker 5: using to make predictions about what people would be willing 51 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:49,839 Speaker 5: to pay was their payday. So you can imagine how 52 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:52,760 Speaker 5: you can use this. If the app knows that you 53 00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:56,760 Speaker 5: get paid every other Friday, it might give you a 54 00:02:56,840 --> 00:03:00,640 Speaker 5: three dollars McMuffin on Thursday, but when you have some 55 00:03:00,720 --> 00:03:03,200 Speaker 5: money in your pocket, it might raise it to four dollars. 56 00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:03,600 Speaker 6: Right. 57 00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:07,760 Speaker 5: If it knows that it's cold out, it might raise 58 00:03:07,800 --> 00:03:10,919 Speaker 5: the price of hot coffee. If it knows it's hot out, 59 00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:15,119 Speaker 5: it might raise the price of a mcflurry. Often, Plecture 60 00:03:15,160 --> 00:03:20,080 Speaker 5: combines this data that's within the app, like what they 61 00:03:20,080 --> 00:03:25,040 Speaker 5: call first party data, with additional data about you through 62 00:03:25,240 --> 00:03:30,320 Speaker 5: what is called an identity graph that aggregates both you know, 63 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:33,480 Speaker 5: stuff you're doing on the app, with your email, with 64 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:37,040 Speaker 5: your social media, with your browser, with your subscriptions, with 65 00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:40,200 Speaker 5: your other app downloads, with your travel history, with your 66 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:45,120 Speaker 5: retail history, all of these other things. And the predictive 67 00:03:45,360 --> 00:03:51,320 Speaker 5: power of that is such that you can pinpoint what 68 00:03:51,360 --> 00:03:54,160 Speaker 5: you're going to buy maybe before you even know, and 69 00:03:54,280 --> 00:03:59,000 Speaker 5: therefore you can target prices accordingly. So I think we're 70 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:01,320 Speaker 5: at the beginning of this where they're trying to discount 71 00:04:01,360 --> 00:04:04,120 Speaker 5: things and get people on the app and get people 72 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:05,600 Speaker 5: used to ordering on the app. 73 00:04:06,160 --> 00:04:09,160 Speaker 2: Joe, has this scared you off the McDonald's app forever? 74 00:04:09,880 --> 00:04:12,560 Speaker 3: No, I still feel stupid for not having downloaded the 75 00:04:12,640 --> 00:04:15,840 Speaker 3: McDonald's app, if I'm being honest, because I do go 76 00:04:15,880 --> 00:04:18,360 Speaker 3: to McDonald's from time to time and my kids really 77 00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:21,760 Speaker 3: like it. You know, it's still a treat. But yes, 78 00:04:22,040 --> 00:04:25,080 Speaker 3: this reminds me actually that I need to download the 79 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:28,080 Speaker 3: McDonald's app because and just thinking about this episode, I 80 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:32,200 Speaker 3: remember there are deals to be had even with sophisticated pricing. 81 00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:35,000 Speaker 3: There are deals to be had from a regular person 82 00:04:35,120 --> 00:04:38,120 Speaker 3: like me that just goes in and pays my credit card. 83 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:42,080 Speaker 2: There are definitely deals to be had on the McDonald's app. 84 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:44,039 Speaker 2: But I think this kind of taps into a lot 85 00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:47,480 Speaker 2: of the frustration that people have with inflation, where it 86 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:51,760 Speaker 2: feels like companies might be charging different prices for different 87 00:04:51,800 --> 00:04:55,039 Speaker 2: people or depending on the specific way you pay. And 88 00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:57,520 Speaker 2: let's face it, no one wants to do all this 89 00:04:57,680 --> 00:05:01,080 Speaker 2: like homework and all this like work just to get 90 00:05:01,400 --> 00:05:04,160 Speaker 2: a slightly cheaper, you know, hamburger. 91 00:05:04,839 --> 00:05:06,680 Speaker 3: I agree, I'm still going to download the app, and 92 00:05:07,040 --> 00:05:09,240 Speaker 3: in twenty twenty five, I'm going to download the app. 93 00:05:09,440 --> 00:05:10,400 Speaker 7: Okay, all right. 94 00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 3: Here is another clip fascinating conversation that we recently had 95 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:18,920 Speaker 3: with Jetson leader Luis. He's an economist at Boston University. 96 00:05:19,120 --> 00:05:22,160 Speaker 3: We're talking about the existence of Medicare fraud and how 97 00:05:22,200 --> 00:05:26,360 Speaker 3: to detect it. I had not realized just how big 98 00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:31,159 Speaker 3: kidney dialysis specifically is as part of the federal budget. 99 00:05:31,200 --> 00:05:33,719 Speaker 8: Take a listen dialysis patients. There are about half a 100 00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:35,720 Speaker 8: million of them. We actually spend I think you know this, 101 00:05:35,760 --> 00:05:39,599 Speaker 8: one percent of the federal budget on the dialysis program. Incredible, set, 102 00:05:39,920 --> 00:05:42,120 Speaker 8: not one percent of Medicare. One percent of the federal 103 00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:46,680 Speaker 8: budget is the dialysis program. We do not, in general, 104 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:49,719 Speaker 8: pay for ambulance rides or taxi rides for these people 105 00:05:49,760 --> 00:05:51,839 Speaker 8: to go to and from the visits. They are responsible 106 00:05:51,880 --> 00:05:54,640 Speaker 8: for getting themselves to the clinic every day, three times 107 00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:57,479 Speaker 8: a week, generally for a few hours, and that's in perpetuity. 108 00:05:57,520 --> 00:05:59,720 Speaker 8: It's very challenging to get a kidney and therefore to 109 00:05:59,760 --> 00:06:04,480 Speaker 8: get off of dialysis. So we had this system, and 110 00:06:04,520 --> 00:06:07,159 Speaker 8: this is sort of the canonical Medicare fraud. We build 111 00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:09,560 Speaker 8: in a little thing for the few people who need it, 112 00:06:09,760 --> 00:06:12,120 Speaker 8: and that turns into a loophole through which bad actors 113 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:14,080 Speaker 8: drive a truck. So we built in this provision, which is, 114 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:16,479 Speaker 8: if the only safe way that you can get to 115 00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:19,000 Speaker 8: the dialysis clinic is in an ambulance, Medicare will pay 116 00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:20,960 Speaker 8: for an ambulance, and they pay for it at a 117 00:06:20,960 --> 00:06:23,600 Speaker 8: competitive rate for the ambulance companies, at say two hundred 118 00:06:23,600 --> 00:06:26,400 Speaker 8: and fifty dollars for a one way ride. Now that's 119 00:06:26,480 --> 00:06:28,400 Speaker 8: not that much money for a real ambulance, but it's 120 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:29,960 Speaker 8: a heck of a lot of money for a taxi. 121 00:06:30,360 --> 00:06:33,640 Speaker 8: And what happened is thousands of firms around the country 122 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:37,240 Speaker 8: opened with the express intention not of giving people serious 123 00:06:37,279 --> 00:06:41,200 Speaker 8: medical care, but of becoming an expensive ambulance taxi and 124 00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:44,480 Speaker 8: build the government. We have one hundred percent data from 125 00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:46,680 Speaker 8: the dialysis system. We can see all of these payments 126 00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:50,760 Speaker 8: more than seven billion dollars for non emergency ambulance transportation 127 00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:52,120 Speaker 8: over the following ten years. 128 00:06:52,520 --> 00:06:56,920 Speaker 3: Tracy, that episode certainly convinced me that, setting aside everything else, 129 00:06:57,560 --> 00:06:59,520 Speaker 3: there still appears to be a lot of waste. I 130 00:06:59,520 --> 00:07:03,960 Speaker 3: don't mean that dialysis specifically, because people need dialysis, et cetera. 131 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:05,800 Speaker 3: But the fact that you know there's all this fraud 132 00:07:05,839 --> 00:07:08,800 Speaker 3: associated with it. The taxi is apparently that's been cracked 133 00:07:08,839 --> 00:07:11,720 Speaker 3: down on, but there's a lot of money coming out 134 00:07:11,760 --> 00:07:14,320 Speaker 3: of the federal government and clever people find ways to 135 00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:16,000 Speaker 3: get it for not delivering a service. 136 00:07:16,280 --> 00:07:18,440 Speaker 2: That's true. I think Look, I think most people would 137 00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:21,800 Speaker 2: agree that stamping out fraud is probably a good thing. 138 00:07:21,840 --> 00:07:23,840 Speaker 2: I guess the question is is that going to be 139 00:07:23,880 --> 00:07:28,360 Speaker 2: the entirety of it? But Elon Musk saw saw this episode, yeah, 140 00:07:28,360 --> 00:07:31,280 Speaker 2: and reacted to it on Twitter slash x he. 141 00:07:31,320 --> 00:07:34,000 Speaker 3: Did, so there's that, So maybe that'll move the dial 142 00:07:34,600 --> 00:07:34,960 Speaker 3: all right. 143 00:07:35,080 --> 00:07:37,600 Speaker 2: Next up in our list of the top ten most 144 00:07:37,640 --> 00:07:40,960 Speaker 2: interesting things we learned from All Blots, we have the 145 00:07:41,000 --> 00:07:44,720 Speaker 2: fact that Boeing hasn't built a clean sheet design in 146 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:49,960 Speaker 2: about twenty years, and Boeing's recently departed CEO Calhoun. He 147 00:07:50,080 --> 00:07:52,560 Speaker 2: basically said the company doesn't have any plans to do 148 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:55,320 Speaker 2: so for the next ten years, all of which means 149 00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:58,960 Speaker 2: it might be more than a thirty year gap between 150 00:07:59,080 --> 00:08:03,800 Speaker 2: Boeing bill an entirely new aircraft, which is just kind 151 00:08:03,800 --> 00:08:07,360 Speaker 2: of mind blowing, like one full adults lifespan. And this 152 00:08:07,400 --> 00:08:11,000 Speaker 2: is from Richard Abulafia. He is a managing director of 153 00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:13,440 Speaker 2: Aerodynamic Advisory. 154 00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:16,280 Speaker 7: This looks like a glide slope towards oblivion. Because remember, 155 00:08:16,320 --> 00:08:18,440 Speaker 7: it's not just the loss of market share, it's also 156 00:08:18,560 --> 00:08:22,680 Speaker 7: the demographics. You know, engineering workforces have that muscle memory 157 00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:25,360 Speaker 7: that needs to be maintained. And it's been since two 158 00:08:25,400 --> 00:08:28,360 Speaker 7: thousand and four that they've launched, since they've last launched 159 00:08:28,400 --> 00:08:31,040 Speaker 7: a clean sheet design. They've done some good work since, 160 00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:36,040 Speaker 7: but again you're talking about an aging engineering workforce that's 161 00:08:36,120 --> 00:08:38,840 Speaker 7: not attracting new people. Well, they have the kind of 162 00:08:38,880 --> 00:08:41,160 Speaker 7: core skills needed to create a new jet in the 163 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:44,400 Speaker 7: twenty thirties. I have no idea. You need something to 164 00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:48,280 Speaker 7: dream for, you need something that represents the future. And 165 00:08:49,600 --> 00:08:52,520 Speaker 7: you know, Dave Calhoun, the CEO at the top of 166 00:08:52,559 --> 00:08:56,000 Speaker 7: the heap, said about oh a year and four months 167 00:08:56,000 --> 00:08:58,559 Speaker 7: ago that don't worry, we won't be launching anything new 168 00:08:58,600 --> 00:09:03,560 Speaker 7: for at least another decade. Other than sheer demoralization and 169 00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:06,920 Speaker 7: encouraging the competition. I mean, the only way to explain 170 00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:09,640 Speaker 7: it is that he's the best CEO Airbus could ask for. 171 00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:12,000 Speaker 7: If you're an engineer, you hear that what are you 172 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:15,480 Speaker 7: working for exactly? You're coming up with work packages on 173 00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:19,120 Speaker 7: the basis of I don't know, minor tweaks of existing products, 174 00:09:19,320 --> 00:09:22,480 Speaker 7: stuff that's already in the pipeline. You know, it's a 175 00:09:22,520 --> 00:09:25,640 Speaker 7: tight market for technical labor. You're probably going to be 176 00:09:25,679 --> 00:09:29,120 Speaker 7: pretty interested in going to work for somebody else. So 177 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:32,240 Speaker 7: you might also notice that the demographics are changing because 178 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:35,440 Speaker 7: the young and enthusiastic folks who have a future are 179 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:38,600 Speaker 7: leaving or not joining, and that too, of course, is 180 00:09:38,600 --> 00:09:41,559 Speaker 7: a significant change in the fabric of your workplace. 181 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 2: So that was from our conversation with Richard Abulafia, one 182 00:09:45,360 --> 00:09:49,040 Speaker 2: of the best aerospace analysts around that I know, And 183 00:09:49,360 --> 00:09:51,640 Speaker 2: it's just kind of yeah, it's kind of mind blowing 184 00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:56,600 Speaker 2: a thirty year gap between America's premier aerospace company actually 185 00:09:56,640 --> 00:09:58,760 Speaker 2: designing a clean sheet aircraft. 186 00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:01,559 Speaker 3: I think it's chilling. That might have been to my mind, 187 00:10:01,640 --> 00:10:03,880 Speaker 3: that stuck with me all year, and maybe the most 188 00:10:03,960 --> 00:10:06,360 Speaker 3: chilling thing we've learned, because you know, we talk, for example, 189 00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:10,880 Speaker 3: in other industries about knowledge and talent loss. Nuclear comes 190 00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:13,640 Speaker 3: up a lot, for example, building a nuclear station, what 191 00:10:13,840 --> 00:10:19,480 Speaker 3: happens when America's one commercial maker of civil aviation jets 192 00:10:19,880 --> 00:10:22,280 Speaker 3: doesn't have very many people that know how to design 193 00:10:22,320 --> 00:10:25,120 Speaker 3: a jet like I actually find it to be a 194 00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:25,840 Speaker 3: chilling fact. 195 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:26,880 Speaker 2: No, absolutely. 196 00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:46,800 Speaker 3: Our next clip comes from Igor Smelansky. He's the CEO 197 00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:50,080 Speaker 3: of the Ukraine Postal Service and he talks to us. 198 00:10:50,160 --> 00:10:52,560 Speaker 3: You know, they used to talk about technological leapfrogging and 199 00:10:52,600 --> 00:10:56,079 Speaker 3: how ems went to wireless before they ever had wirelines. 200 00:10:56,400 --> 00:10:59,040 Speaker 3: Something similar going on with a post office there. 201 00:10:59,080 --> 00:11:02,319 Speaker 9: Take a listen when we talk about the occupied areas, 202 00:11:02,760 --> 00:11:06,160 Speaker 9: Russians destroy the entire infrastructure, which means when Ukraine the 203 00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:09,520 Speaker 9: occupies these villages for about five to six weeks, you 204 00:11:09,559 --> 00:11:13,920 Speaker 9: don't have mobile connection, you don't have electricity, but we 205 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:16,360 Speaker 9: have to work because you cannot leave people in the vacuum. 206 00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:20,240 Speaker 9: Not to mention, they would operate in Russian rubles, and 207 00:11:20,280 --> 00:11:22,160 Speaker 9: we want to bring them back to Ukraine, so you 208 00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:24,600 Speaker 9: have to bring them Ukrainian currency, and we at the 209 00:11:24,600 --> 00:11:27,240 Speaker 9: first company they see. We're trying the best we can 210 00:11:27,400 --> 00:11:32,040 Speaker 9: to implement automatic sorting lines. Our goal for the c 211 00:11:32,200 --> 00:11:34,560 Speaker 9: I know it sounds weird during the war, but we 212 00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:37,440 Speaker 9: want to be one hundred percent digital even when there's 213 00:11:37,480 --> 00:11:40,280 Speaker 9: no digital meaning we build a system where in the 214 00:11:40,360 --> 00:11:45,000 Speaker 9: morning our mail carriers will download through startlingk and generators 215 00:11:45,040 --> 00:11:48,120 Speaker 9: the data worker during the day and then upload the 216 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:50,520 Speaker 9: data at night, which means again we are not dependent 217 00:11:50,600 --> 00:11:54,240 Speaker 9: on the infrastructure if Russians, you know, shut down the 218 00:11:54,280 --> 00:11:58,120 Speaker 9: electricity or mobile or anything. This starlink has been really 219 00:11:58,160 --> 00:12:02,200 Speaker 9: a sabor to us be able to run internet cables 220 00:12:02,200 --> 00:12:04,360 Speaker 9: in those areas, right, I mean, it just will be 221 00:12:04,400 --> 00:12:07,880 Speaker 9: millions of dollars. Probably it will run through the field 222 00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:09,840 Speaker 9: which you need to demine, and then Russians can bumm 223 00:12:09,880 --> 00:12:12,160 Speaker 9: it again and it can go off, et cetera. So 224 00:12:12,960 --> 00:12:16,600 Speaker 9: via Startling you're flexible enough. Then you well, when you 225 00:12:16,640 --> 00:12:19,480 Speaker 9: combine startling and a generator, when you combine the two, 226 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:23,160 Speaker 9: you're basically no longer dependent on the central infrastructure and 227 00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:26,800 Speaker 9: you can provide civil height services right away, not you know, 228 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:31,640 Speaker 9: not five months after the occupation, not three months after 229 00:12:31,720 --> 00:12:34,360 Speaker 9: Russian destroyed the buildings today, like for example it was 230 00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:37,520 Speaker 9: in our case, So we rebuilt it, we put up 231 00:12:37,520 --> 00:12:40,480 Speaker 9: the Startling generator, and we get back to work. So 232 00:12:41,360 --> 00:12:43,320 Speaker 9: you know, it's like a sory of broken windows. You 233 00:12:43,320 --> 00:12:46,400 Speaker 9: cannot have that you should have the services, and the 234 00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:50,120 Speaker 9: startling allows you to have that connection to the world. 235 00:12:50,640 --> 00:12:53,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, that was a really extraordinary fact, just thinking about 236 00:12:53,679 --> 00:12:56,680 Speaker 3: how quickly you can rebuild a service that would have 237 00:12:56,720 --> 00:12:59,920 Speaker 3: taken weeks and weeks or months and months of infrastructure. 238 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:03,080 Speaker 3: We did another episode also this year, now that I 239 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:06,400 Speaker 3: think about it, about a sort of Elon Musk's dominance 240 00:13:06,480 --> 00:13:10,680 Speaker 3: of the skies and satellites, and it really is fascinating. 241 00:13:10,880 --> 00:13:13,319 Speaker 3: I guess the consequence of that, but one very interesting 242 00:13:13,360 --> 00:13:16,320 Speaker 3: one is that you can have a whole infrastructure that 243 00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:19,959 Speaker 3: probably took years to develop and maintain and now in 244 00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:23,600 Speaker 3: some places replicated least some of those services almost overnight. 245 00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:25,680 Speaker 2: You know what the best part of this episode was, 246 00:13:26,120 --> 00:13:29,960 Speaker 2: uh what I think afterwards? You uh started ordering a 247 00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:31,680 Speaker 2: couple things from Ukraine, Right. 248 00:13:31,679 --> 00:13:32,160 Speaker 10: That's right. 249 00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:36,079 Speaker 3: I started buying things on eBay and a number of 250 00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:39,280 Speaker 3: them did come through Ukraine, including some used books recently. 251 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:41,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, I know, it's kind it's kind of crazy. Yeah, 252 00:13:41,880 --> 00:13:44,280 Speaker 2: you can order stuff from a war zone, but there 253 00:13:44,320 --> 00:13:46,800 Speaker 2: we are. The postal service in Ukraine is still working. 254 00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:49,839 Speaker 2: We'll see whether or not they go one hundred percent digital. Yeah, 255 00:13:50,360 --> 00:13:54,479 Speaker 2: all right, next, Uh, this was a pretty fun episode, 256 00:13:54,559 --> 00:13:58,080 Speaker 2: we spoke with Isaac rose Berman, who's a professional sports 257 00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:02,319 Speaker 2: gambler and the author of How Gambling Works newsletter. He 258 00:14:02,520 --> 00:14:06,200 Speaker 2: talked about how professional sports betters basically have to trick 259 00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:10,000 Speaker 2: betting platforms into thinking they're stupid. Take a listen. 260 00:14:10,679 --> 00:14:12,640 Speaker 4: So another thing that a lot of people do, obviously 261 00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:14,640 Speaker 4: is you bet on other people's accounts. You know, you 262 00:14:15,320 --> 00:14:18,440 Speaker 4: go and you get your roommate's account, your mom's account, 263 00:14:18,480 --> 00:14:21,560 Speaker 4: your friend's account, and you're just constantly cycling through different accounts. 264 00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:23,760 Speaker 4: I'm not advocating for that, that's against the terms and 265 00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:26,080 Speaker 4: conditions of these sites, but that's just a reality. And 266 00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:29,080 Speaker 4: that's how a lot of betters are able to get 267 00:14:29,120 --> 00:14:31,440 Speaker 4: down a sufficient amount of volume, especially when they're constantly 268 00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:33,800 Speaker 4: getting kicked out. And the real thing is that, you know, 269 00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:35,760 Speaker 4: you're just you have to disguise your bets in a 270 00:14:35,800 --> 00:14:38,600 Speaker 4: way that they don't they don't see or they don't 271 00:14:38,640 --> 00:14:41,560 Speaker 4: realize that what you're doing. And so one of the 272 00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:45,200 Speaker 4: common ways that sportsbooks identify and profile their customers is 273 00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:47,680 Speaker 4: based on the first few bets that you place. So 274 00:14:48,080 --> 00:14:50,200 Speaker 4: one thing that a lot of people do that's really 275 00:14:50,480 --> 00:14:52,760 Speaker 4: quite silly, in my opinion, is no you go into 276 00:14:52,760 --> 00:14:54,360 Speaker 4: a book and you bet a bunch of stuff that's 277 00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:57,400 Speaker 4: pretty obviously a really smart bet. You know, if you 278 00:14:57,480 --> 00:15:00,000 Speaker 4: open up an account and you're betting the maximum amount 279 00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:03,320 Speaker 4: out on you know, Bulgarian table tennis, and you keep winning, 280 00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:05,080 Speaker 4: and then you know, I have friends who come to 281 00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:06,560 Speaker 4: me and they're like, Isaac, you know, why did I 282 00:15:06,560 --> 00:15:07,800 Speaker 4: get kicked out of this book? And I look at 283 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:10,280 Speaker 4: their bet history and they're betting on the most obscure 284 00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:12,840 Speaker 4: stuff at like random times for very large amounts, and 285 00:15:12,880 --> 00:15:15,320 Speaker 4: it's like, yeah, you know, these these companies aren't dumb. 286 00:15:15,520 --> 00:15:17,840 Speaker 4: So the main way is, you know, you when you 287 00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:20,000 Speaker 4: open up an account, you place a bunch of bets 288 00:15:20,000 --> 00:15:22,400 Speaker 4: which look kind of normal. You bet on some NBA 289 00:15:22,800 --> 00:15:25,120 Speaker 4: Maybe these bets won't have a positive expression. Bet for 290 00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:27,760 Speaker 4: the home team exactly exactly. You know, you're in New York, 291 00:15:27,800 --> 00:15:29,720 Speaker 4: you want to bet on the Yankees. You place a 292 00:15:29,760 --> 00:15:31,480 Speaker 4: bunch of bets which in the short run they might 293 00:15:31,520 --> 00:15:33,320 Speaker 4: lose a little bit of money, but in the long 294 00:15:33,400 --> 00:15:35,080 Speaker 4: run they'll make you money because they're kind of putting 295 00:15:35,080 --> 00:15:36,040 Speaker 4: the sportsbook off your scent. 296 00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:38,800 Speaker 2: Jarre, that was pretty funny, and I got to say, 297 00:15:38,800 --> 00:15:41,560 Speaker 2: I feel like I don't have much promise in terms 298 00:15:41,600 --> 00:15:44,280 Speaker 2: of actually making money from sports betting, So maybe I 299 00:15:44,320 --> 00:15:46,440 Speaker 2: should be selling my account to someone. 300 00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:48,960 Speaker 3: You opened some accounts and rent that out. But seriously, 301 00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:51,360 Speaker 3: that was a really disturbing episode because I already knew 302 00:15:51,440 --> 00:15:54,800 Speaker 3: that there's all these problems with online gambling, addiction and 303 00:15:54,920 --> 00:15:58,440 Speaker 3: so forth, but then the fact that essentially you can't 304 00:15:58,480 --> 00:16:00,960 Speaker 3: really win because if you're good at it, they'll constrain 305 00:16:01,000 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 3: you so much, and that if you're bad at it 306 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:07,320 Speaker 3: sort of deeply, deeply disturbing episode to me. 307 00:16:07,680 --> 00:16:10,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, you know, they set the odds, they set 308 00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:10,760 Speaker 2: the terms. 309 00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:11,600 Speaker 11: Yeah. 310 00:16:11,800 --> 00:16:14,040 Speaker 3: So one of the things that's come up a lot 311 00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:16,120 Speaker 3: as a theme on the podcast this year and the 312 00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:21,240 Speaker 3: year before and etcetera, is with the energy transition, other 313 00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:26,880 Speaker 3: commodities besides oil are of deep importance and deep geostrategic importance, 314 00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:29,040 Speaker 3: et cetera. And there are various commodities that go into 315 00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:31,320 Speaker 3: batteries and other things like that, and so we sort 316 00:16:31,320 --> 00:16:33,560 Speaker 3: of have to rethink our world map of where the 317 00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:38,000 Speaker 3: important spots are. And a really crucial area is Indonesia, 318 00:16:38,080 --> 00:16:41,080 Speaker 3: which has a dominant grip on the global nickel market 319 00:16:41,200 --> 00:16:44,160 Speaker 3: in partnership to some extent with China, and we had 320 00:16:44,160 --> 00:16:47,080 Speaker 3: a great conversation with Michael Widmer, head of Metals Research 321 00:16:47,160 --> 00:16:49,160 Speaker 3: at Bank of America on what's going on. 322 00:16:49,440 --> 00:16:52,760 Speaker 11: When you're looking at the biggest players in the space. 323 00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:55,120 Speaker 11: It has actually changed a lot, and you mentioned it 324 00:16:55,160 --> 00:16:58,920 Speaker 11: already in the at the outset. Historically, when you're looking 325 00:16:58,960 --> 00:17:01,680 Speaker 11: at it, you had Russia as a big nickel producer, 326 00:17:01,760 --> 00:17:05,119 Speaker 11: Australia as a big nickel producer, the Philippines were in 327 00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:07,840 Speaker 11: the fold as well, Canada to some extent too. But 328 00:17:07,920 --> 00:17:12,720 Speaker 11: what's happened recently is as the energy transition started to 329 00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:18,560 Speaker 11: take off, market participants were really focused on increasing nickel 330 00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:22,600 Speaker 11: supply quickly. And there's one country that just jumped at 331 00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:25,600 Speaker 11: the industry. In that country is Indonesia. It has the 332 00:17:25,600 --> 00:17:29,000 Speaker 11: weather type of war, but it has that in abundance, 333 00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:31,320 Speaker 11: so it's very easy to actually take it out of 334 00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:34,400 Speaker 11: the ground. And the Chinese went into Indonesia, were very 335 00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:38,560 Speaker 11: innovative also in the production technologies and managed to take 336 00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:41,240 Speaker 11: the nickel out that they then needed to drive the 337 00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:44,280 Speaker 11: ev battery industry. And one of the things that the 338 00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:47,840 Speaker 11: Chinese government realized very early on is if you have 339 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:52,080 Speaker 11: a strong demand growth for evs. You also need the romatiers, 340 00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:56,240 Speaker 11: and particularly the battery roma tiers. Without batteries, TVs don't 341 00:17:56,280 --> 00:18:00,000 Speaker 11: go very fon. So the Chinese government looked at where 342 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:03,879 Speaker 11: where some of those battery romatials are. They did it 343 00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:07,040 Speaker 11: in lithium, another battery romatial, they did in cobalt, and 344 00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:10,280 Speaker 11: they did also in nickel. And in twenty thirteen the 345 00:18:10,320 --> 00:18:14,600 Speaker 11: two presidents of China and Indonesia effectively set together and 346 00:18:14,600 --> 00:18:16,760 Speaker 11: the discussion pretty much went like that. The Chinese said, 347 00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:19,040 Speaker 11: look beneath the nico. The Dnetian said, well, we have 348 00:18:19,080 --> 00:18:21,199 Speaker 11: the nickel. The Chinese said, well, can be invested, and 349 00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:24,520 Speaker 11: then he said, yeah, do. Let's developed that industry together. 350 00:18:24,560 --> 00:18:27,240 Speaker 11: And so the Indonesian government then, together with the Chinese, 351 00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:30,520 Speaker 11: set up industrial parks, and through that industrial park, supported 352 00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:35,280 Speaker 11: by Chinese money, the nickel industry and then developed very 353 00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:36,040 Speaker 11: very quickly. 354 00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:40,080 Speaker 3: Tracy, you know, when I listen to these conversations about 355 00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:44,360 Speaker 3: the sort of global supply chains, global hold and key commodities, 356 00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:46,639 Speaker 3: let's just put this way, we have some catching up 357 00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:49,280 Speaker 3: to There's a lot of talk in this country about 358 00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:51,800 Speaker 3: things right now, and maybe there are ways to sort 359 00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:55,520 Speaker 3: of buffer some of the economic or national security concerns 360 00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:58,040 Speaker 3: about some of this stuff, but other places have been 361 00:18:58,040 --> 00:18:59,320 Speaker 3: thinking about this stuff for a long time. 362 00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:03,160 Speaker 2: No, it's true, and China here has been incredibly strategic 363 00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:07,159 Speaker 2: about basically, you know, helping to set up Indonesia's nickel 364 00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:10,040 Speaker 2: industry and making sure that they're sort of first in 365 00:19:10,200 --> 00:19:13,640 Speaker 2: line to get that metal. So yeah, quite a long 366 00:19:13,680 --> 00:19:16,200 Speaker 2: ways to go, all right. Next up, we have Harvard 367 00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:19,840 Speaker 2: Law School professor Jared Elias and Duke University School of 368 00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:24,400 Speaker 2: Law professor Elizabeth Defont. Today they're talking about how private 369 00:19:24,560 --> 00:19:28,680 Speaker 2: credit has swallowed the economy, and I think the takeaway 370 00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:32,320 Speaker 2: from this is that private credit is basically already changing 371 00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:35,320 Speaker 2: the world of debt and the way finance works. 372 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:40,959 Speaker 12: So you can have concerns both for the investors themselves 373 00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:44,520 Speaker 12: and for sort of the broader economy or the broader market. 374 00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:47,680 Speaker 12: And that's the issue with private credit. We have heard 375 00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:51,280 Speaker 12: a lot from people about concerns about the marks that 376 00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:53,960 Speaker 12: people are carrying these private credit loans at, and that 377 00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:57,480 Speaker 12: they might be entirely stale, they might be largely overstated. 378 00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:01,879 Speaker 12: There's really no way to know until exit that investment. 379 00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:04,679 Speaker 12: And that's exactly how it is on the private equity 380 00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:06,560 Speaker 12: side that you know, if a private equity fund buys 381 00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:09,639 Speaker 12: a portfolio company, who on earth knows what that company 382 00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:12,880 Speaker 12: is worth until they actually finally exit that and there 383 00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:16,119 Speaker 12: is some misvaluation and so on. That's the question is 384 00:20:16,320 --> 00:20:18,760 Speaker 12: can we have that both on the equity side and 385 00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:20,840 Speaker 12: on the debt side? What does that mean for our 386 00:20:20,880 --> 00:20:25,440 Speaker 12: economy if we are suddenly just very liquid for almost 387 00:20:25,520 --> 00:20:26,440 Speaker 12: all of the companies. 388 00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:30,000 Speaker 13: Yeah, and so something to think about is the broadly 389 00:20:30,040 --> 00:20:32,760 Speaker 13: syndicated debt world and the high yield world of debt 390 00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:36,720 Speaker 13: in created this benefit for all of us. And that 391 00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:39,840 Speaker 13: benefit was we could follow the trading crisis of debt 392 00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:42,639 Speaker 13: and real time and get a sense of where are 393 00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:45,639 Speaker 13: their problems in our economy, what sectors are in trouble? 394 00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:48,400 Speaker 13: Like I think about COVID nineteen, So COVID nineteen hits. 395 00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:51,040 Speaker 13: We're all watching, like, what are the debt prices of 396 00:20:51,080 --> 00:20:54,240 Speaker 13: the big hotel companies telling us about the likelihood those 397 00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:55,320 Speaker 13: hotel companies. 398 00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:55,840 Speaker 14: Go into bankruptcy. 399 00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:59,560 Speaker 13: Congress and regulators can look at those signals and say, Okay, 400 00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:02,480 Speaker 13: we've got to do something really special for the airlines. 401 00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:04,760 Speaker 13: We've got to do something really special here. And when 402 00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:07,440 Speaker 13: the airlines go to Congress and say we need something special. 403 00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:10,280 Speaker 14: They can point to their debt prizes and say. 404 00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:13,399 Speaker 13: Look what is going on regulators, Look what's going on 405 00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:17,320 Speaker 13: in Congress. Our debt is trading down to zero, like please, 406 00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:21,360 Speaker 13: we need special treatment. Investors looking for a deal and say, 407 00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:25,000 Speaker 13: the debt of this company is trading at a really 408 00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:27,560 Speaker 13: low level. I think I could do really well if 409 00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:29,399 Speaker 13: I owns that asset. I'm going to go make that 410 00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:32,760 Speaker 13: board and offer. And so all of those price signals 411 00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:37,359 Speaker 13: just disappear from the allocation of capital from policymaking, and 412 00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:40,360 Speaker 13: I think it poses a real challenge to what are 413 00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:44,000 Speaker 13: you a really well functioning set of capital markets to 414 00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:45,520 Speaker 13: lose those signals. 415 00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:49,639 Speaker 2: Yeah, so I think this is absolutely fascinating because a 416 00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:52,440 Speaker 2: lot of the concerns that you hear at nauseum nowadays 417 00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:55,600 Speaker 2: are this idea that private credit is in a bubble, right, like, yeah, 418 00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:57,800 Speaker 2: private credit is going to burst and there's going to 419 00:21:57,800 --> 00:22:00,320 Speaker 2: be this big crash and people are sort of worried 420 00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:03,560 Speaker 2: about that scenario sometime in the future. But in the 421 00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:08,320 Speaker 2: meantime there's already been an impact on things like transparency 422 00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:11,600 Speaker 2: about you know, who actually owns corporations, And then the 423 00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:13,920 Speaker 2: price signals that Jared was talking about. 424 00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:16,680 Speaker 3: It occurred to me listening to that that there's sort 425 00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:21,200 Speaker 3: of a this is adjacent to the question about passive 426 00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:23,720 Speaker 3: investing and who is putting in the work to setting 427 00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:27,880 Speaker 3: to setting prices, because prices, as our guests talked about, 428 00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:31,040 Speaker 3: are very useful. But it does feel as though the 429 00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:33,520 Speaker 3: sort of people who are working to set prices that 430 00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:36,239 Speaker 3: everyone can look at are shrinking because you have all 431 00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:38,679 Speaker 3: this money going to passive investing, and then you have 432 00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:42,000 Speaker 3: some other pool of money going to private market investments 433 00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:44,879 Speaker 3: in which the marks are really not very known, and 434 00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:47,040 Speaker 3: so it does sort of make you wonder, like, you know, 435 00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:49,520 Speaker 3: there's a lot of free writing going on, and at 436 00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:52,080 Speaker 3: some point you got to wonder if it'll actually be 437 00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:57,520 Speaker 3: problematic that there isn't more publicly available pricing. Anyway, it's 438 00:22:57,520 --> 00:22:59,680 Speaker 3: just something, just something I thought of it. It's an 439 00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:02,280 Speaker 3: interesting sort of theoretical problem to think about. 440 00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:05,199 Speaker 2: I'm not sure price makers are the real victim. Is 441 00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:08,280 Speaker 2: going to be a strong populist platform here, but there 442 00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:11,080 Speaker 2: is definitely something there. There is that free writing problem. 443 00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:14,080 Speaker 3: We are all we are all the victims of fewer 444 00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:15,240 Speaker 3: and fewer price makers. 445 00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:16,640 Speaker 2: Is high play okay, fair enough. 446 00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:37,160 Speaker 3: Speaking of prices, it turns out, and this is something 447 00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:41,640 Speaker 3: that we learned during our three part series called Beak Capitalism. 448 00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:44,680 Speaker 3: Everyone needs chicken wings, we all love. It turns out 449 00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:49,159 Speaker 3: that chicken wing prices, for various reasons, are extremely volatile 450 00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:52,719 Speaker 3: because by and large, the chicken industry does not price 451 00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:55,760 Speaker 3: around the wing itself. Take a listen to this part 452 00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:58,600 Speaker 3: of our conversation that we had with Michael Skipworth, the 453 00:23:58,680 --> 00:23:59,879 Speaker 3: CEO of Wingstop. 454 00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:05,600 Speaker 10: Now, the reason you see so much volatility in the 455 00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:09,440 Speaker 10: price of wings is the reality of the fact that 456 00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:14,320 Speaker 10: these poultry companies, they are not growing these chickens for 457 00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:19,240 Speaker 10: the wings. They're setting the size of the flock, how 458 00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:22,840 Speaker 10: many birds they're going to harvest based on breast meat demand. 459 00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:26,320 Speaker 10: The chicken wings themselves represent six to eight percent of 460 00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:29,680 Speaker 10: the bird It's a fall off product. And so why 461 00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:33,880 Speaker 10: you see so much volatility in the price of wings. 462 00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:38,000 Speaker 10: It clearly is a supply and demand dynamic, but the 463 00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:41,359 Speaker 10: demand is not what's driving the supply. It's really centered 464 00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:44,840 Speaker 10: around the overall market for breast meat, and so that's 465 00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:48,399 Speaker 10: what's created a lot of volatility in that commodity. And 466 00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:53,879 Speaker 10: there can be years where that spot market hits below 467 00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:57,399 Speaker 10: one dollar a pound. And then take a year like 468 00:24:57,480 --> 00:25:02,119 Speaker 10: twenty twenty one, after the pandemic or every single brand 469 00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:05,120 Speaker 10: out there added chicken wings to their menu, you saw 470 00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:07,880 Speaker 10: that spot market hit an all time high of three 471 00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:09,639 Speaker 10: dollars and twenty one cents a pound. 472 00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:14,680 Speaker 3: Tracy, I love the idea that you know, there's financial 473 00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:18,080 Speaker 3: instruments exist and in a way, you know, you get 474 00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:20,600 Speaker 3: this price of a chicken, and then it's almost like 475 00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:23,720 Speaker 3: the wing is a derivative of a chicken, right, A 476 00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:27,320 Speaker 3: wing is sort of a chicken derivative itself, because that's 477 00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:30,200 Speaker 3: not really where the supply and demand is happening directly 478 00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:32,080 Speaker 3: with most of the bird, and so then you can 479 00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:35,359 Speaker 3: get these weird swings in the fall off part. 480 00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:35,639 Speaker 14: Of the bird. 481 00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:39,359 Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, technology needs to solve this with chickens 482 00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:42,280 Speaker 2: with I don't know, multiple pairs of wings. Then we'll 483 00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:43,320 Speaker 2: have plenty of cheap chicken. 484 00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:45,600 Speaker 3: You're right, this is the solution. We need to innovate 485 00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:46,280 Speaker 3: our way out of it. 486 00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:49,359 Speaker 2: All right, Definitely check out Beat Capitalism if you haven't, 487 00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:51,960 Speaker 2: because that was one of my favorite series of the year. 488 00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:55,359 Speaker 2: Up next, Oh, speaking of favorite series of the year, 489 00:25:56,040 --> 00:26:00,520 Speaker 2: this is from Richmond. FED President Tom Barkin on the 490 00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:04,200 Speaker 2: road with him in North Carolina, and we learned a lot, 491 00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:07,159 Speaker 2: including you know what a FED president learns when he 492 00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:10,240 Speaker 2: actually goes on all these business trips. But we also 493 00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:15,119 Speaker 2: learned that Surrey County is the carport manufacturing capital of 494 00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:16,240 Speaker 2: North America. 495 00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:18,680 Speaker 6: My brother and I've been to this industry over close 496 00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:22,480 Speaker 6: to twenty four to twenty five years, so almost since 497 00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:26,520 Speaker 6: it first started back in ninety nine and ninety seven, 498 00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:30,200 Speaker 6: actually ninety eight ninety nine, the beginnings of this industry, 499 00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:33,040 Speaker 6: but it kind of grew in this area. So Surrey 500 00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:36,040 Speaker 6: County is pretty much the home town or home place, 501 00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:38,800 Speaker 6: so the birthplace of this type of structure. Now there's 502 00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:41,120 Speaker 6: been other structures made out of different you know tubing, 503 00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:43,399 Speaker 6: like round tubes all that that's you know on the 504 00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:47,080 Speaker 6: West coast, but to be square tubing and to go 505 00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:50,160 Speaker 6: into what we're doing now is different. So it started 506 00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:52,200 Speaker 6: off and you probably drove by even where you live, 507 00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:54,439 Speaker 6: you see the little tops and people park their cars, 508 00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:57,960 Speaker 6: or you drive by some kind of dealer that sells 509 00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:00,639 Speaker 6: outdoor equipment or something you see a little signed this 510 00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:03,679 Speaker 6: as a price. Well that's how it pretty much started. 511 00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:04,760 Speaker 12: All right. 512 00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:07,160 Speaker 2: Did that surprise you, Joe, to learn that there's a 513 00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:09,840 Speaker 2: sort of carport hub in North Carolina. 514 00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:13,120 Speaker 3: It surprised me, But then it's like these days, it's 515 00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:15,440 Speaker 3: agglomeration effects in everything. 516 00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:15,680 Speaker 11: Yeah. 517 00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:19,080 Speaker 3: Right, So you think of any industry where they make anything, 518 00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:21,679 Speaker 3: and there's probably one area that dominates it. But I 519 00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:23,760 Speaker 3: think both of us had the same reaction when we 520 00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:25,600 Speaker 3: were driving through Surrey County. 521 00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:27,040 Speaker 2: Which is carport. 522 00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:30,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, it was really incredible, and I sort of when 523 00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:31,680 Speaker 3: we were going to a carport business, I thought it 524 00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:34,760 Speaker 3: would be really obvious, you know which one we were 525 00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:37,159 Speaker 3: going to, but we probably passed like five on the 526 00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:39,439 Speaker 3: way before we got to the one that we were visiting. 527 00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:41,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's true, all right. 528 00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:44,479 Speaker 3: Our last clip of the year comes from an episode 529 00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:47,240 Speaker 3: we did with John Coogan. He's the CEO and founder 530 00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:50,719 Speaker 3: of Lucy Nicotine. We sort of talked about the modern 531 00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:54,600 Speaker 3: history of nicotine because obviously nicotine consumption sort of fell 532 00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:57,880 Speaker 3: off as cigarettes got less popular, but then it's been 533 00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:02,560 Speaker 3: surging again obviously over the last decades, first with jewels, 534 00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:06,000 Speaker 3: then other vapes like elf bars, the disposable vapes, and 535 00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:11,240 Speaker 3: now obviously the pouches. Anyway, turns out that these disposable vapes, 536 00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:15,399 Speaker 3: These very tasty flavored vapes, in part exist because of 537 00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:18,400 Speaker 3: the FDA's crackdown unjewels. So take a listen to John. 538 00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:23,520 Speaker 14: It's hard to explain exactly what elf bar is because 539 00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:29,720 Speaker 14: it's kind of a hydra of companies. Like the IP 540 00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:34,520 Speaker 14: has been sold so many times, they've rebranded a million times. 541 00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:38,280 Speaker 14: There's also puff bar and puff stick, and essentially what 542 00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:41,520 Speaker 14: these companies do broadly, I'm not speaking about any particular company, 543 00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:45,040 Speaker 14: but broadly, the strategy has been to instead of engage 544 00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:49,600 Speaker 14: with the FDA directly and file the PMTA, wait for approval, 545 00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:53,960 Speaker 14: then market your product. They've just said, let's push this 546 00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:57,040 Speaker 14: product as many places as possible, get it into every 547 00:28:57,040 --> 00:29:01,320 Speaker 14: independent store that maybe doesn't care about the regulatory status 548 00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:05,680 Speaker 14: of these products. Let's just flood the market with these products. 549 00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:08,400 Speaker 14: And if we get shut down, what's going to happen 550 00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:12,000 Speaker 14: is that we're essentially just have a front company that's 551 00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:16,160 Speaker 14: just a couple random American citizens that are acting as 552 00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:18,800 Speaker 14: a front for us in the US. The FDA is 553 00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:20,640 Speaker 14: not really going to be able to shut them down. 554 00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:22,760 Speaker 14: They're going to try and shut us down at the ports. 555 00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:25,280 Speaker 14: All we need to do then is just set up 556 00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:29,000 Speaker 14: a new company structure and import under a different label. 557 00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:31,680 Speaker 14: So that's how you see the evolution of these things, 558 00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:34,000 Speaker 14: where like I don't even think elf bar is on 559 00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:35,840 Speaker 14: the market anymore. I think it might be called like 560 00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:37,000 Speaker 14: elf tax. 561 00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:39,600 Speaker 3: Yeah no, there's like what they all look the same 562 00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:42,080 Speaker 3: under like different names, and I'm like, is it exactly? 563 00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:44,440 Speaker 14: So they're all made in the same Shenjen like the 564 00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:48,760 Speaker 14: core company behind elf Bar's shenzen I Miracle company. Just 565 00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:53,440 Speaker 14: hilarious name, but it's like the miracle. But then also 566 00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:56,560 Speaker 14: I which I think is like an Apple reference. It's 567 00:29:56,720 --> 00:29:59,480 Speaker 14: very convoluted. But the Shenjin a miracle company. They have 568 00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:02,120 Speaker 14: a massive facility where they make this stuff, and then 569 00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:05,600 Speaker 14: they just find a new front man. And I get 570 00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:10,760 Speaker 14: emails every single day from a new random Gmail account 571 00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:14,840 Speaker 14: that says like puff bar five hundred puffs, like would 572 00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:16,800 Speaker 14: you like to white label this? Because they're looking for 573 00:30:16,880 --> 00:30:21,760 Speaker 14: someone that has American citizenship distribution lines and can order 574 00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:23,600 Speaker 14: their products and then get them into stores. 575 00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:28,560 Speaker 3: Tracy, I love learning about the history of nicotine. I 576 00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:30,760 Speaker 3: have to say I have a friend of mine who 577 00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:34,040 Speaker 3: totally separately happens to be kind of a friend guy 578 00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:37,040 Speaker 3: in the neighborhood who can hear this? He might it's 579 00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:40,200 Speaker 3: all right, a neighbor who's in the nicotine business, and 580 00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:42,760 Speaker 3: he showed me these Gmail emails that. 581 00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:44,000 Speaker 2: Oh, so he gets them too. 582 00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:46,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, but a lot of the ones that he gets 583 00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:50,640 Speaker 3: are from companies offering straight up counterfeit zo or things 584 00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:53,680 Speaker 3: like that, and they say, oh, we can make this packet. 585 00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:56,440 Speaker 3: It looks just like zen we there's the same nicotine, 586 00:30:56,480 --> 00:30:59,160 Speaker 3: et cetera. So I actually think at twenty twenty five, 587 00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:02,200 Speaker 3: there's more to do on the sort of the nicotine 588 00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:04,800 Speaker 3: and drug supply chain, because I think there's actually a 589 00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:06,520 Speaker 3: lot more to fascinating stuff. 590 00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:09,920 Speaker 2: And I also think it's such a perverse regulatory outcome 591 00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:12,320 Speaker 2: where you know, jewel kind of went through the process 592 00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:15,600 Speaker 2: like it was supposed to and then got basically shut down. 593 00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:19,480 Speaker 2: But alf bars have just evaded most of the regulation. 594 00:31:19,760 --> 00:31:20,960 Speaker 3: And they taste like cotton candy. 595 00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:21,920 Speaker 12: Yeah, and you can. 596 00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:26,120 Speaker 2: Find them everywhere, and they're in these like bright colors. 597 00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:28,960 Speaker 2: I stopped after listening to this episode. 598 00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:29,840 Speaker 3: I'm very impressed. 599 00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:32,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, thanks, We're all impressed. Thank you. All right, shall 600 00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:34,600 Speaker 2: we leave it there, Let's leave it there. This has 601 00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:38,040 Speaker 2: been another episode of the Authoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. 602 00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:40,080 Speaker 2: You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. 603 00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:43,240 Speaker 3: And I'm Jill Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart. 604 00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:46,840 Speaker 3: Follow our producers Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen Ermann, dash Ol 605 00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:50,080 Speaker 3: Bennett at dashbot in Kilbrooks at Kilbrooks. Thank you to 606 00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:53,040 Speaker 3: our producer Moses Ondam. 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