WEBVTT - MLB Season Preview 2022 (Ep. 162) 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:15.720 It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros. 0:00:16.040 --> 0:00:17.439 Welcome in everybody to betting pros. 0:00:17.480 --> 0:00:20.959 It is me joeyp Joe Pizzapia, and today my guest 0:00:21.040 --> 0:00:23.520 is the Welsh, my co host from leading off over 0:00:23.560 --> 0:00:25.400 on the Fantasy pro side, and we're gonna break down 0:00:25.440 --> 0:00:29.000 the MLB wagering for you heading into the twenty twenty 0:00:29.000 --> 0:00:29.560 two season. 0:00:29.680 --> 0:00:30.840 This is the preview show. 0:00:31.000 --> 0:00:33.360 We're gonna talk a little win totals here when it 0:00:33.360 --> 0:00:35.720 comes to teams, the overs and unders we like early 0:00:35.760 --> 0:00:38.559 on here, we're also gonna talk about some player futures, 0:00:38.600 --> 0:00:40.919 hand out some awards, and we'll get all the way 0:00:40.920 --> 0:00:43.800 to the division winners and of course World Series at 0:00:43.840 --> 0:00:45.440 the end of the day. In Welsh, this is that 0:00:45.520 --> 0:00:47.479 time of year where we start to look at the 0:00:47.520 --> 0:00:50.080 teams and we think we know who we've got, and then, 0:00:50.120 --> 0:00:53.040 of course, as always, something happens, like the San Francisco 0:00:53.080 --> 0:00:55.720 Giants come out of nowhere last year and show up 0:00:55.720 --> 0:00:58.120 with the Seattle Mariners and change the perspective. 0:00:58.200 --> 0:01:00.480 But I think it's a very exciting time here. 0:01:00.520 --> 0:01:02.960 We've got some rookies that are breaking camp, so that 0:01:03.000 --> 0:01:05.120 should be an interesting award to give out, but Welsh, 0:01:05.360 --> 0:01:08.160 We've got an exciting potential twenty twenty two season ahead 0:01:08.200 --> 0:01:08.479 of us. 0:01:08.840 --> 0:01:12.040 It's glorious. It's glorious with all the futures to be had. 0:01:12.760 --> 0:01:15.800 We were talking about this soft air. I've never even 0:01:15.920 --> 0:01:19.240 before gambling became legal here in Arizona, I never was 0:01:19.360 --> 0:01:24.039 like a crazy, crazy, big futures guy, you madly into 0:01:24.120 --> 0:01:27.880 futures and very successful. But I gotta admit it's kind 0:01:27.959 --> 0:01:30.440 of the most enticing I think it's ever been in 0:01:30.520 --> 0:01:33.400 years that I've paid attention to it, watched it. Bogin 0:01:33.400 --> 0:01:35.479 and I had talked about it over years and years. 0:01:35.720 --> 0:01:38.800 With the advent of the of baseball being incentivized to 0:01:38.840 --> 0:01:42.280 bring up rookies, Bam, we've got a whole bigger, different 0:01:42.360 --> 0:01:46.039 race for Rookie of the Year awards and even some of. 0:01:46.000 --> 0:01:46.600 The win totals. 0:01:46.640 --> 0:01:49.720 I gotta tell you, scouring through there's some stuff in 0:01:49.760 --> 0:01:50.559 there that I'm like. 0:01:51.160 --> 0:01:53.760 Am I missing something? What am I missing? What is 0:01:53.800 --> 0:01:54.840 Vegas trying to do here? 0:01:54.920 --> 0:01:57.640 So if you are comfortable making a little bit of 0:01:57.680 --> 0:01:59.920 an investment for the future in the game that you love, 0:02:00.720 --> 0:02:04.640 discounts and money to be made today and hopefully we're 0:02:04.680 --> 0:02:06.000 gonna nail some of those guys. 0:02:06.640 --> 0:02:07.880 Yeah, one hundred percent, man. 0:02:07.920 --> 0:02:10.120 And just to you know, kind of lay it out 0:02:10.120 --> 0:02:12.240 there when it comes to these sort of early, you know, 0:02:12.320 --> 0:02:14.480 season wagers when we're starting out the top of the year. 0:02:14.919 --> 0:02:16.360 I like to think of it like investments. 0:02:16.400 --> 0:02:18.320 You know, you see the things you like on the board, 0:02:18.360 --> 0:02:20.680 and you invest a small amount or even a large amount, 0:02:20.720 --> 0:02:23.440 depending on what your pank roll is, and then as 0:02:23.520 --> 0:02:25.880 the season goes on, you reevaluate them. Is it time 0:02:25.919 --> 0:02:28.760 to get off of that investment into another investment or 0:02:29.240 --> 0:02:31.400 is it time to double down that investment. Let's say, 0:02:31.720 --> 0:02:34.000 you know, you have Shoeotani who was a player last 0:02:34.080 --> 0:02:36.800 year who did this show. We talked about him for MVP. 0:02:37.000 --> 0:02:38.639 I said, if he pitches and he hits, how is 0:02:38.639 --> 0:02:41.200 anyone going to deny him? Dan Harris of course called 0:02:41.240 --> 0:02:44.080 me crazy. Both of those things were true. Cho Hoyotani 0:02:44.120 --> 0:02:46.400 was MVP and I am crazy. So Dan was right 0:02:46.480 --> 0:02:48.720 about one thing, wrong about the other. But it's the 0:02:48.720 --> 0:02:51.480 whole point of being in early, even in small amounts, 0:02:51.520 --> 0:02:54.960 as small investments, and then as the season progresses, you 0:02:55.080 --> 0:02:58.320 reevaluate a month in, two months in, and then three 0:02:58.440 --> 0:03:00.320 four months in and then obviously get the end as 0:03:00.360 --> 0:03:02.320 well for that final push if there's still money to 0:03:02.320 --> 0:03:04.440 be made. Now, when we're looking here, we're going to 0:03:04.480 --> 0:03:07.560 be using our bettingpro site at bettingpros dot com, where 0:03:07.639 --> 0:03:10.000 if all the consensus odds and all the different houses 0:03:10.000 --> 0:03:13.040 there like bet, MGM, FanDuel DraftKings are all there. But 0:03:13.320 --> 0:03:15.720 what's great about this is it gives you the consensus line. 0:03:16.000 --> 0:03:17.840 They can go out there see the things you like 0:03:17.919 --> 0:03:20.080 and then find the best odds anywhere can get them. 0:03:20.240 --> 0:03:22.600 And also, if you're going to be doing in season wagering, 0:03:22.680 --> 0:03:25.240 I strongly suggest you take a look at our prop 0:03:25.240 --> 0:03:28.040 bet cheat sheets. So right there under MLB you go 0:03:28.120 --> 0:03:30.360 under picks, you find the prop bet cheat sheet and 0:03:30.440 --> 0:03:32.880 every day it's going to have that projection for you 0:03:32.919 --> 0:03:35.760 with certain players, certain prop bets you can make there. 0:03:35.800 --> 0:03:38.119 And the best location to make those wagers. 0:03:38.120 --> 0:03:40.680 So if you haven't already, head over to bettingpros dot 0:03:40.680 --> 0:03:42.800 com because that is the place to be to make 0:03:42.840 --> 0:03:45.040 all these wagers. And I know New York is legal now, 0:03:45.040 --> 0:03:46.560 so a lot of people are getting into this. A 0:03:46.560 --> 0:03:49.720 lot of people from Fantasy World are starting to dip 0:03:49.760 --> 0:03:51.640 their toes in the water of gambling, and I think 0:03:51.680 --> 0:03:54.160 it's a fun thing to do. And if you understand 0:03:54.160 --> 0:03:56.160 and you're a really good fantasy player, there's money to 0:03:56.160 --> 0:03:56.400 be made. 0:03:56.400 --> 0:03:58.240 All right, let's continue to educate the people. 0:03:58.240 --> 0:03:58.480 Wels. 0:03:58.560 --> 0:04:00.840 We'll start with the over unders on the games. So 0:04:01.120 --> 0:04:03.120 here are some of the win totals for some teams 0:04:03.160 --> 0:04:05.240 that right now really pop to me, and I'm going 0:04:05.280 --> 0:04:06.800 to give you a few of them. The first one 0:04:06.840 --> 0:04:08.560 is the Mariners at eighty three and a half. This 0:04:08.600 --> 0:04:10.840 is a team that won ninety games last year. They 0:04:10.920 --> 0:04:13.760 just acquired the reigning al Cy Young and Robbie Ray. 0:04:14.520 --> 0:04:17.600 To me, this is a huge upgrade in that rotation. 0:04:17.680 --> 0:04:19.919 I expect Logan Gilbert to make another step forward. We 0:04:20.000 --> 0:04:22.120 just got news that Julia Rodriguez is going to open 0:04:22.560 --> 0:04:24.960 the season with the team. That is a huge win 0:04:25.080 --> 0:04:28.640 here for the Mariners. They acquired Winker Suarez. I think 0:04:28.720 --> 0:04:30.920 might be done, but still, you know, they went out 0:04:30.920 --> 0:04:33.200 there and they made adjustments. Do I expect Minch Hannigert 0:04:33.240 --> 0:04:35.920 at forty bombs again, No, but eighty three and a half. 0:04:35.960 --> 0:04:37.680 I expect them to be much better than a five 0:04:37.720 --> 0:04:40.599 hundred team, especially as the Oakland As continue the jettison 0:04:40.600 --> 0:04:42.120 players as Sean and I got dealt. 0:04:42.160 --> 0:04:43.240 So the Mariners over. 0:04:43.120 --> 0:04:45.320 At eighty three and a half for me, the Rays 0:04:45.360 --> 0:04:47.120 at eighty nine and a half. Welsh, I don't know 0:04:47.120 --> 0:04:48.520 how many times you have to get beaten over the 0:04:48.560 --> 0:04:50.440 head with this. The Rays are always going to win 0:04:50.560 --> 0:04:53.359 ninety something games. It's how they manage the one sixty 0:04:53.400 --> 0:04:55.520 two season. It's the way they do it. They will 0:04:55.520 --> 0:04:57.320 make an addition to the team at some point in 0:04:57.360 --> 0:04:59.760 time that makes sense to them and add more offense. 0:05:00.240 --> 0:05:03.279 Likely to me, this is a team once again, every 0:05:03.360 --> 0:05:05.320 year we sit here with the Rays. Every year it 0:05:05.320 --> 0:05:07.479 should be an over, because every year it is. The 0:05:07.520 --> 0:05:09.280 White Sox went from ninety two and a half to 0:05:09.360 --> 0:05:11.720 ninety one and a half actually overnight when the Lance 0:05:11.800 --> 0:05:14.120 Lynn news broke. He's going to miss some time here. 0:05:14.320 --> 0:05:16.160 But I still like the over on this one. I 0:05:16.200 --> 0:05:18.480 still think they're the kings of this division. I think 0:05:18.520 --> 0:05:20.920 they're going to roll. I think top to bottom it's 0:05:20.920 --> 0:05:24.279 a great offensive, defensive team, still a great rotation, even 0:05:24.279 --> 0:05:27.400 if Lynn misses some time. The bullpen's very solid as well. 0:05:27.600 --> 0:05:29.360 And then it's the Brewers at eighty nine and a half. 0:05:29.440 --> 0:05:31.680 Another thing where I look at the division itself. I 0:05:31.720 --> 0:05:33.800 really don't see a whole lot of competitors outside the 0:05:33.800 --> 0:05:36.880 Saint Louis Cardinals really giving them any runs for their money. 0:05:37.040 --> 0:05:39.360 That pitching staff is so good. They've got a pipeline 0:05:39.360 --> 0:05:41.480 of some young pitchers as well. So those are the overs. 0:05:41.520 --> 0:05:43.320 I like the Mariners at eighty nine and a half, 0:05:43.520 --> 0:05:45.120 the White Sox at ninety one and a half, the 0:05:45.200 --> 0:05:47.440 Rays at eighty nine and a half, and the Mariners 0:05:47.440 --> 0:05:49.520 at eighty three and a half. So when you're looking 0:05:49.560 --> 0:05:52.840 at some of the overs, who kind of pop to you, well, 0:05:52.880 --> 0:05:54.680 so you thought might be a good early investment. 0:05:54.960 --> 0:05:57.400 Well, I really like the Mariners one. It's interesting. 0:05:57.400 --> 0:05:59.040 You've got a lot of high totals here. You've got 0:05:59.080 --> 0:06:02.000 great teams. High totals can be a little bit scary. 0:06:02.040 --> 0:06:03.640 But I love the Mariners one. 0:06:03.839 --> 0:06:06.719 I'm such a you know, I'm such a sucker for 0:06:06.800 --> 0:06:09.599 everything that they do. I absolutely love Logan Gilbert. I 0:06:09.640 --> 0:06:12.600 love the step that he's gonna make, Julio Rodriguez. It's 0:06:12.600 --> 0:06:14.960 a whole nother ballgame, you know, for me and my love, 0:06:14.960 --> 0:06:18.400 and I think they've got depth from outfield to infield, 0:06:18.400 --> 0:06:19.919 so I think it's a great team. Eighty three and 0:06:19.920 --> 0:06:23.560 a half. Fantastic love that one. Not to say I 0:06:23.560 --> 0:06:26.040 don't like the other ones' just high totals. I picked 0:06:26.080 --> 0:06:29.080 on two really low total teams that I think actually 0:06:29.080 --> 0:06:32.200 made improvements and I'd be really interested in. Number one 0:06:32.400 --> 0:06:34.800 is the Royals, and the Royals are at seventy one 0:06:34.880 --> 0:06:37.479 and a half, and this team is built to win, 0:06:37.960 --> 0:06:40.239 that's what they are. They got brought in Zach Grank, 0:06:40.600 --> 0:06:44.160 They've got another year in of this really good young rotation. 0:06:44.240 --> 0:06:47.000 They got Brady Singer, They've got Daniel Lynch, they've got 0:06:47.080 --> 0:06:49.800 Chris Boobie, they've got Jackson Kowhar that's kind of sitting 0:06:49.839 --> 0:06:50.360 in the wings. 0:06:50.560 --> 0:06:51.480 Brad Keller's in there. 0:06:51.480 --> 0:06:55.000 I think they've got a really solid rotation, They've got 0:06:55.040 --> 0:06:57.599 a decent bullpen, and I think they have a fantastic 0:06:57.760 --> 0:07:01.400 explosive offense with Bobby in there. Seventy one and a 0:07:01.440 --> 0:07:04.200 half that's really really good. That actually might be one 0:07:04.200 --> 0:07:06.360 of my favorites. When all push comes to shove, there's 0:07:06.360 --> 0:07:08.640 a there are the under we're going to talk about 0:07:08.720 --> 0:07:11.160 might be my absolute favorite, but the Royals would be 0:07:11.160 --> 0:07:12.480 one that I would want to hammer. 0:07:12.520 --> 0:07:14.480 At seventy one and a half, and then this. 0:07:14.520 --> 0:07:17.960 Other one's kind of also about team context and improvement. 0:07:18.240 --> 0:07:20.520 It's the Tigers. The Tigers are down here. And and 0:07:20.520 --> 0:07:22.840 by the way, I didn't look at every single one 0:07:22.880 --> 0:07:25.840 of these. These were numbers I saw over on just 0:07:25.840 --> 0:07:28.360 happening to be DraftKings at sixty six and a half, 0:07:28.400 --> 0:07:30.520 So you might have to shop around whatever book you're 0:07:30.560 --> 0:07:32.440 looking at, going to betting Pros and you can see 0:07:32.440 --> 0:07:34.480 all the totals sixty six and a half. 0:07:34.960 --> 0:07:35.400 I like that. 0:07:35.520 --> 0:07:38.880 Hobby Baias comes in, Torklsen is in there again. This 0:07:38.920 --> 0:07:42.200 is kind of you know, mymo here, you've got another 0:07:42.320 --> 0:07:47.120 year improved of these young pitchers with Terrek Skugel, Casey Maiz, 0:07:47.200 --> 0:07:50.480 Matt Manning, and Wardo Rodriguez. They bring in to kind of, 0:07:51.040 --> 0:07:55.280 you know, boost out that entire rotation. They just got better. 0:07:55.360 --> 0:07:57.440 They just they're not awesome, They're not a great team, 0:07:57.600 --> 0:07:59.760 but they just got better. And at sixty six and 0:07:59.800 --> 0:08:02.160 a half, there's a lot of upsides. So as far 0:08:02.200 --> 0:08:05.320 as like two really you know, I don't know, maybe 0:08:05.400 --> 0:08:08.119 stigma teams of not being good. I think both teams 0:08:08.200 --> 0:08:12.640 made concerted efforts to improve more teams in it, and 0:08:12.840 --> 0:08:15.160 I like both of those as far as over as 0:08:15.200 --> 0:08:16.680 I would take on some team totals. 0:08:17.600 --> 0:08:20.080 Now the Tigers right now, that consensus number is seventy 0:08:20.080 --> 0:08:22.200 seven and a half and the Tigers on betting pros, 0:08:22.200 --> 0:08:24.120 So it's something to take notice of. You can find 0:08:24.120 --> 0:08:27.160 it somewhere else cheaper in terms of a lower number. 0:08:27.240 --> 0:08:29.440 You could certainly bet that variance. And that's why it's 0:08:29.440 --> 0:08:32.000 so important. That's why it's so great to have these 0:08:32.080 --> 0:08:33.040 tools at our fingertips. 0:08:33.320 --> 0:08:35.200 What is the what are they? What are they over there? 0:08:35.960 --> 0:08:38.000 Their seventy seven and a half is the consensus for 0:08:38.040 --> 0:08:40.440 the over under for the Tigers this year for winning. 0:08:40.280 --> 0:08:42.240 Okay, and the consensus well, yeah, like I said, I 0:08:42.360 --> 0:08:44.920 just happened to find sixty six and a half was 0:08:44.960 --> 0:08:47.640 over on draftking. So that's the number that I got now, 0:08:47.679 --> 0:08:50.040 seventy seven and a half. I ain't playing that. I 0:08:50.040 --> 0:08:51.400 ain't playing Homeie, don't play that. 0:08:51.760 --> 0:08:52.840 You play the under on that? 0:08:53.120 --> 0:08:56.200 Yeah, way, I'm gonna take out that rather wap. I'm 0:08:56.200 --> 0:08:58.320 not doing that one if it's seventy seven and a half. 0:08:58.320 --> 0:09:01.319 But I found sixty six and a half on DraftKings, 0:09:01.360 --> 0:09:02.720 and I like, I like, E. 0:09:03.640 --> 0:09:06.440 Let's get to some of the unders here and for me. 0:09:06.480 --> 0:09:08.079 The first one is gonna be the Orioles at sixty 0:09:08.120 --> 0:09:10.880 four and a half. And yes, it's already a low number. 0:09:10.880 --> 0:09:13.920 But this Orioles team is not very good. I mean 0:09:13.920 --> 0:09:16.160 after John Means, and even John Means, I'm not sure 0:09:16.200 --> 0:09:18.199 what we're getting out of him from a pitching standpoint. 0:09:18.840 --> 0:09:20.559 I do think they're gonna sell off some more pieces 0:09:20.559 --> 0:09:23.640 they continue to rebuild. I think they're gonnat bludgeoned by 0:09:23.640 --> 0:09:25.440 the other teams in this division too. The Blue Jays 0:09:25.440 --> 0:09:27.600 are great, The Yankees are gonna be the Yankees. The 0:09:27.600 --> 0:09:29.800 Red Sox will continue to be a very good offense. 0:09:29.800 --> 0:09:32.839 We'll see what happens without sale how they do. But 0:09:32.960 --> 0:09:35.200 I mean, really, I just I look at this East 0:09:35.240 --> 0:09:37.640 and it's such a monstrous division. I think it's really hard. 0:09:37.640 --> 0:09:39.480 Oh yeah, and that Rays team that already picked the 0:09:39.559 --> 0:09:41.880 over on. I mean, the Orioles are going to be 0:09:41.880 --> 0:09:44.040 in for a long season. The Nationals I think are 0:09:44.080 --> 0:09:46.560 as well. I know it's been encouraging to see Patrick 0:09:46.600 --> 0:09:50.000 Corbyn pitch a little bit better in this spring. I 0:09:50.080 --> 0:09:52.720 understand that they've got some young talent potentially to break 0:09:52.720 --> 0:09:54.640 through still in this team, I know Jan Sota is 0:09:54.640 --> 0:09:56.800 the best player on the planet. But seventy one and 0:09:56.880 --> 0:09:58.880 a half, I still like the under there. I think 0:09:58.920 --> 0:10:00.760 this is a team that really struggles, and I do 0:10:00.800 --> 0:10:04.000 think they're gonna jettison more pieces like Nelson Cruz as 0:10:04.040 --> 0:10:07.240 the season goes on, just because they really can't compete 0:10:07.280 --> 0:10:09.000 right now. They just can't do it. And I don't 0:10:09.000 --> 0:10:12.520 axce Exprassburg to do anything. That thoracic outlet syndrome thing 0:10:12.559 --> 0:10:15.160 has really crushed many careers in Major League Baseball with 0:10:15.240 --> 0:10:17.760 pitchers over the last decade, and I expect to be 0:10:17.760 --> 0:10:19.600 the same with him. So the under on the Nationals 0:10:19.640 --> 0:10:21.320 at seventy one and a half, and then the Giants, 0:10:21.720 --> 0:10:24.439 the Darling last year, the Cinderello eighty five and a half, 0:10:24.520 --> 0:10:28.280 I'm gonna take the under here. Their move from Gossman 0:10:28.360 --> 0:10:31.480 to Rodin. You can certainly argue that Rodin had a 0:10:31.520 --> 0:10:33.800 wonderful season last year. I'm gonna argue he's got track 0:10:33.840 --> 0:10:35.839 record of not pitching games, and I think that's a 0:10:35.920 --> 0:10:38.800 huge one. Buster Posey's gone. You missed that leadership that 0:10:38.880 --> 0:10:42.280 was there last year. Evan Longoria already on the shelf 0:10:42.280 --> 0:10:44.400 to open the season. Everything broke right, I think for 0:10:44.440 --> 0:10:46.760 the Giants, and I'm not trying to take anything away 0:10:46.800 --> 0:10:48.960 from them as a team, but Welsh to me, the 0:10:49.000 --> 0:10:51.560 Giants were a great story last year, but I'm not 0:10:51.559 --> 0:10:53.880 buying them again to repeat it in twenty twenty two, 0:10:54.120 --> 0:10:56.160 especially with some of those juggernaut teams you've got there, 0:10:56.200 --> 0:10:59.320 like the Padres pitching staff now and the Dodgers. So 0:10:59.360 --> 0:11:00.840 the under on the eighty five and a half for 0:11:00.880 --> 0:11:03.400 the Giants, the under for the Nationals at seventy one 0:11:03.440 --> 0:11:05.080 and a half, and the under for the Orioles at 0:11:05.080 --> 0:11:07.199 sixty four and a half. Those are my three favorite 0:11:07.360 --> 0:11:09.760 Who are your three favorite unders or two favorite unders 0:11:09.760 --> 0:11:10.640 you've got here potentially? 0:11:10.679 --> 0:11:12.720 First, Okay, so a couple a couple things real quick. 0:11:13.720 --> 0:11:17.839 I have the best and just most perfect sell of 0:11:17.880 --> 0:11:20.040 why you go over to the cheat sheet over on 0:11:20.120 --> 0:11:22.680 betting pros because I'm such a dummy. And when I 0:11:22.720 --> 0:11:25.360 was looking on DraftKings, absolutely was looking at the wrong 0:11:25.440 --> 0:11:27.840 team and the Tigers, and I was like, what is 0:11:27.920 --> 0:11:31.679 going on here? And had I, on that moment just 0:11:31.720 --> 0:11:34.480 been on the sheet, I would have seen that I 0:11:34.520 --> 0:11:37.160 was completely wrong. So getting back to the Tigers one 0:11:37.360 --> 0:11:39.480 and I was one or two off as well because 0:11:39.480 --> 0:11:41.440 I did the same dummy thing with the Royals, but 0:11:41.480 --> 0:11:43.360 the Royals were seventy four and a half, I think, 0:11:43.480 --> 0:11:45.320 and that doesn't change anything for me. I still love 0:11:45.360 --> 0:11:48.720 the Royals ones. Tigers, big dummy hands up, go on 0:11:48.760 --> 0:11:51.400 the cheet sheet on betting pros, that's the way to 0:11:51.480 --> 0:11:51.800 do that. 0:11:51.840 --> 0:11:52.040 One. 0:11:52.880 --> 0:11:57.400 On the Giants one, I don't know, man, I don't 0:11:57.520 --> 0:12:01.000 love that under because as you say, what everything you 0:12:01.040 --> 0:12:03.680 said to the Rays you can just copy and paste 0:12:03.679 --> 0:12:06.240 over to the Giants. They just win by the way 0:12:06.800 --> 0:12:09.000 they made their rotation better. You know, they made that 0:12:09.080 --> 0:12:12.200 rotation better. Alex Cobb, Alex would both really good pieces. 0:12:12.200 --> 0:12:14.840 You've got Deskalafani and I don't know. I think they 0:12:14.880 --> 0:12:18.280 are continuously a sneaky team with a really good bullpen 0:12:19.000 --> 0:12:23.720 and a bad division. Dodgers fantastic Dodgers. 0:12:23.840 --> 0:12:25.040 We'll talk about them later. 0:12:25.320 --> 0:12:29.320 Padres little bit dicey on my two favorite bets here, 0:12:29.800 --> 0:12:34.040 whatever the numbers are, the under on the Diamondbacks and 0:12:34.080 --> 0:12:36.720 the Rockies wins is for me this year the Rockies 0:12:36.720 --> 0:12:39.920 are going to not be great. I don't feel as 0:12:39.960 --> 0:12:42.920 confident maybe with that one, but the Diamondbacks one. Now, 0:12:42.920 --> 0:12:45.000 the Diamondbacks one I think is that sixty six and 0:12:45.040 --> 0:12:47.880 a half. Yeah, the consensus is sixty six and a 0:12:47.920 --> 0:12:52.120 half on the win totals here and the Diamondbacks, even 0:12:52.160 --> 0:12:54.080 though they're going to try to put some of this together, 0:12:54.120 --> 0:12:56.760 it's not a great team. It's a Dodger team that's 0:12:56.800 --> 0:12:59.600 going to be pounding them. It's a Giants team that's 0:12:59.600 --> 0:13:03.600 going to get extra wins. So that eighty five I 0:13:03.640 --> 0:13:07.200 actually like me personally, I'm probably avoiding that one because 0:13:07.280 --> 0:13:09.720 I think they're super sneaky. I think they're super super 0:13:09.720 --> 0:13:11.440 sneaky on this one. But I think the Diamondbacks are 0:13:11.480 --> 0:13:13.880 going to be one of the worst teams in baseball. 0:13:13.960 --> 0:13:14.280 Again. 0:13:14.640 --> 0:13:18.040 They continuously show that, and that is why I would 0:13:18.120 --> 0:13:20.400 move off of them and I would go on the under. 0:13:20.760 --> 0:13:22.760 And then, you know, the only other one I want 0:13:22.760 --> 0:13:24.760 to look at real quick, Joe, because I'm gonna give 0:13:24.760 --> 0:13:28.280 you on the fly after Yeah, yeah, well we're gonna 0:13:28.280 --> 0:13:31.680 do this one. Even though this team has been kind 0:13:31.720 --> 0:13:35.960 of similar to the Giants and the Rays over time. 0:13:36.800 --> 0:13:39.360 When you just had the A's trade shamm and Aya 0:13:39.520 --> 0:13:42.720 to the Padres and can continue to decimate that team, 0:13:43.360 --> 0:13:45.520 they blatantly are staring you in the face to take 0:13:45.559 --> 0:13:47.720 an under because they are rebuilding, and I don't think 0:13:47.760 --> 0:13:50.000 they're gonna do it quick because they don't have a 0:13:50.000 --> 0:13:52.480 lot of young pieces that are ready to come up. 0:13:52.920 --> 0:13:55.960 Sixty eight and a half, they are a higher win 0:13:56.080 --> 0:13:59.680 total than the Arizona Diamondbacks. I don't think so, Scooter 0:14:00.240 --> 0:14:02.760 eight and a half. I'm gonna take the under. Betting 0:14:02.760 --> 0:14:05.920 consensus bending pros consensus shows minus one twenty two. So 0:14:05.960 --> 0:14:08.400 you're almost getting out of like good juice range. So 0:14:08.559 --> 0:14:10.600 give me the A's, give me the Rockies, and boy, 0:14:10.640 --> 0:14:11.920 give me the Diamondbacks unders. 0:14:12.880 --> 0:14:14.440 Yeah, I love the A's one too. I could not 0:14:14.520 --> 0:14:17.400 agree more. All right, let's switch gears to a little hardware. 0:14:17.480 --> 0:14:20.040 Let's talk about MVP will start in the American League. 0:14:20.200 --> 0:14:23.040 Vlad Guerrero right now is sitting at consensus at plus 0:14:23.040 --> 0:14:26.320 three hundred, same as Shoeotani right around there, plus three fifty. 0:14:26.560 --> 0:14:30.040 Now at BETMGM Blad, Guerrero is plus five hundred. Interesting 0:14:30.080 --> 0:14:32.640 note there, Mike Trout is at plus three seventy five 0:14:32.640 --> 0:14:34.600 in the consensus line, but at bet MGM you get 0:14:34.640 --> 0:14:37.120 in for plus four to fifty. Right now on FanDuel 0:14:37.120 --> 0:14:40.800 plus five to fifty. Those are kind of the odds 0:14:40.840 --> 0:14:45.040 on favorites in the American League. So I still am 0:14:45.080 --> 0:14:46.480 of the mind that as long as show hey O 0:14:46.520 --> 0:14:50.000 Tani continues to pitch and hit. If he's gonna throw 0:14:50.000 --> 0:14:52.520 one hundred and forty innings this year and he's going 0:14:52.600 --> 0:14:54.960 to hit anything close than we did last year, I 0:14:55.000 --> 0:14:57.720 don't know how anyone else wins Most Valuable Player. He 0:14:57.800 --> 0:15:01.080 is literally pitching and hitting at a very high level. 0:15:01.360 --> 0:15:03.400 It doesn't matter what Trout does, It doesn't matter what 0:15:03.480 --> 0:15:05.120 Vladd does. I told you last year Lad could win 0:15:05.160 --> 0:15:06.880 the Triple Crown. I would still vote for Otani if 0:15:06.920 --> 0:15:09.040 I had to vote. And if you're looking right now 0:15:09.040 --> 0:15:11.480 for the best line in Otani right now, that MGM 0:15:11.560 --> 0:15:13.200 is the best place at plus three fifty, you can 0:15:13.240 --> 0:15:15.040 get it because some have it at three hundred, some 0:15:15.160 --> 0:15:15.840 at three forty. 0:15:15.920 --> 0:15:18.680 But to me, it's still Otani in terms of favorites. 0:15:18.720 --> 0:15:20.720 But if I'm going to look a little deeper, Welsh 0:15:20.920 --> 0:15:23.040 and I'm gonna dig, and I'm trying to make a 0:15:23.080 --> 0:15:26.440 case for somebody plus twenty two hundred on Louis Robert, 0:15:26.520 --> 0:15:29.480 who I know is a favorite of yours. You're looking 0:15:29.480 --> 0:15:32.000 for a narrative, right, it's a high profile team, a 0:15:32.040 --> 0:15:34.720 team that, if everything breaks right, could win ninety five 0:15:34.760 --> 0:15:36.840 to one hundred games, right if Link comes back healthy, 0:15:36.920 --> 0:15:39.200 and you know, they just kind of roll the White Sox. 0:15:39.960 --> 0:15:41.920 We're just scratching the surface of how good Louis Robert 0:15:41.960 --> 0:15:44.240 can be At plus twenty two hundred, He's my favorite 0:15:44.240 --> 0:15:46.960 of the long shots for American League MVP. How do 0:15:47.040 --> 0:15:49.000 you feel about the favorites and how do you feel 0:15:49.040 --> 0:15:51.040 about any long shots potentially that you would want to 0:15:51.040 --> 0:15:53.520 put money on. I've already put money on Otani and Robert. 0:15:53.720 --> 0:15:56.040 Those are my two guys. You have any guys you 0:15:56.120 --> 0:15:57.160 like in the American League. 0:15:57.480 --> 0:15:59.600 I just wanted to add I agree with the Otani stuff. 0:16:00.000 --> 0:16:01.880 If Kings says have him at four hundred, so that 0:16:01.920 --> 0:16:03.960 would actually I don't think it's just curated yet, so 0:16:04.000 --> 0:16:07.200 that would actually be the current best odds. Really like 0:16:07.280 --> 0:16:07.840 that if you. 0:16:07.800 --> 0:16:09.440 Can jump good yeah. Plus. 0:16:09.760 --> 0:16:12.320 I mean the problem too is with Atani is the 0:16:12.360 --> 0:16:14.560 only thing that takes him away is injury, and that's 0:16:14.600 --> 0:16:18.320 still very There's a big Possibilityory's out there, and that's 0:16:18.360 --> 0:16:20.520 why he's not a minus number like he should be 0:16:20.600 --> 0:16:21.400 a minus number. 0:16:21.440 --> 0:16:25.440 He's so much far and away a favorite in that 0:16:25.480 --> 0:16:27.480 sense because he does something that nobody else can do, 0:16:27.600 --> 0:16:30.120 and that's why it's the injury risk that makes it 0:16:30.160 --> 0:16:30.800 it's still three. 0:16:30.640 --> 0:16:32.480 To one, and that's why it's easy money to throw 0:16:32.520 --> 0:16:34.240 out there, because it's still plus four hundred. 0:16:34.320 --> 0:16:35.080 Now here's the only thing. 0:16:35.080 --> 0:16:37.040 I don't mean to extend all this conversation, but here's 0:16:37.080 --> 0:16:39.400 the only thing that I do. Wonder is there going 0:16:39.440 --> 0:16:41.240 to you know how they just created like the Otani 0:16:41.360 --> 0:16:44.560 rule out there where Otani can now stay in the 0:16:44.560 --> 0:16:46.920 game as a DH if he comes out. I wonder 0:16:46.960 --> 0:16:49.920 if there's going to be an MVP Otani rule that 0:16:50.360 --> 0:16:52.400 just think about this, If Otani continues to do what 0:16:52.480 --> 0:16:55.680 he does, that MVP will never go to anybody else 0:16:55.720 --> 0:16:58.000 by this logic. I just wonder if there's going to 0:16:58.040 --> 0:17:02.640