Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Mollie John Fast and this is Fast Politics,
Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some.
Speaker 2: Of today's best minds.
Speaker 3: We're almost back from vacation, but we still have a
Speaker 3: great show for you today. Wall Street Journal Chief Foreign
Speaker 3: Affairs correspondent. You're a slav. Trofle Moth joins us to
Speaker 3: talk about his new book, Our Enemies Will Vanish, the
Speaker 3: Russian invasion and Ukraine's War on Independence. But first we
Speaker 3: have NBC's Matt Dixon to tell us all about his
Speaker 3: new book, Swamp Monsters, Trump Versus DeSantis.
Speaker 4: Welcome Matt, Well, thank you very much.
Speaker 2: You are Florida di like Rick Wilson, but probably don't
Speaker 2: curse as much. But you do live in Tallahassee.
Speaker 4: I've heard too.
Speaker 2: We don't cast aspersion.
Speaker 4: It is observation. I not a dispersion.
Speaker 2: Is it a dispersion?
Speaker 1: I think it's an aspersion hard So the book is
Speaker 1: called Swamp Monsters.
Speaker 2: Talk to me about Ron DeSantis.
Speaker 4: One of the most interesting things about him is, to
Speaker 4: some degree he became better known nationally and people started
Speaker 4: to see sort of this crotchety guy, this sort of
Speaker 4: charmless battering ram of a man who just kind of
Speaker 4: couldn't really make human connections. It was interesting because I
Speaker 4: covered gosh. I lived in jacksonvilleiames in Congress, so I've
Speaker 4: covered him since his congressional days, and it was sort
Speaker 4: of interesting to watch the rest of the world see
Speaker 4: what I had seen for a very long time. And
Speaker 4: the rambling response to your question is a lot of
Speaker 4: the stereotypes about him, a lot of the things that
Speaker 4: people think they think are kind of right. And I
Speaker 4: think that's kind of what's the most notable about him.
Speaker 4: He wears that on his sleeve and sort of all
Speaker 4: the personality quirks and the you know, rubbing of the snot.
Speaker 1: Did you think when you started this book, oh, this
Speaker 1: fucking guy is not going to be the nomine like
Speaker 1: not even close. Or did you think maybe there's a.
Speaker 4: Work No, I thought, I mean covering the his rise
Speaker 4: post pandemic and that the midterm re elections. I didn't know,
Speaker 4: you know, I wasn't in the you know, I one
Speaker 4: hundred percent think he's going to be the nominee. But
Speaker 4: with you know, he speaks pretty well to the base,
Speaker 4: at least before Trump got back in. He knows that
Speaker 4: right language, he knows the issues. I definitely did not
Speaker 4: anticipate he was going to underperform expectations the way he has,
Speaker 4: So I didn't think he was a cinch for the nomination,
Speaker 4: but I thought in a primary environment he was going
Speaker 4: to be a pretty good candidate.
Speaker 2: Everyone for the National Review, all those guys who.
Speaker 1: Already really hate me, and I would like to add,
Speaker 1: have hated my grandfather and hated my mother.
Speaker 2: I come by that hatred very honestly.
Speaker 1: But that crew has always hated me, and they were
Speaker 1: so fucking pissed at me because they had this fantasy
Speaker 1: that Ron DeSantis was going to do like a nice
Speaker 1: light fascism, all the authoritarianism, none of the unforced errors.
Speaker 2: And I saw him and I was like.
Speaker 1: Holy fuck, if this guy becomes a nominee, we're in
Speaker 1: a lot of trouble because he is actually pretty smart
Speaker 1: and could really I mean, he's very smart.
Speaker 4: Well, without question, he's very smart. But I do think
Speaker 4: one of the slightness about him is this idea that
Speaker 4: he's some great administrator or a more complicent version of
Speaker 4: Trump in the sense ooh say more.
Speaker 2: This is interesting to me.
Speaker 4: So many of the pieces of legislation, his biggest pieces
Speaker 4: of legislation have ended up in court and found unconstant courts.
Speaker 4: His administration from a staffing standpoint has been a bit
Speaker 4: of a mess. He's fired every campaign team he's ever had,
Speaker 4: and you can see some of the stuff going on
Speaker 4: with the super pack and the campaign staff is that
Speaker 4: doesn't go as well. So has always had staffing issues.
Speaker 4: There's always been sort of a palace intrigued circular firing squad.
Speaker 4: Some of his biggest sort of policy priorities that he
Speaker 4: talks about to this day while running for president discratch
Speaker 4: a little below the service and read a couple court opinions.
Speaker 4: A lot of them didn't really sort of pan out
Speaker 4: the way the initial headline did.
Speaker 2: Are you talking about don't say gay? Or are you talking
Speaker 2: about something else?
Speaker 4: Well, in some of them it should be not that
Speaker 4: are still going through the courts that bill, and there's
Speaker 4: been several sort of culture war themed bills as he
Speaker 4: grows through the sort of National Republic and ecosystem that
Speaker 4: he got a lot of attention for, did big splashy
Speaker 4: press releases and all sorts of stuff, and you know,
Speaker 4: twenty million dollars in legal fees later, they're still either
Speaker 4: tied up in the courts or have have been tossed.
Speaker 4: So I think there's some mythology around around the Santis
Speaker 4: that he's sort of bureaucratic.
Speaker 2: But I mean he's still more confident than Trump. Not
Speaker 2: saying much, but.
Speaker 4: Yeah, right, but I do think there's a gray area there, right,
Speaker 4: Like it's not he's either Donald Trump or this you know,
Speaker 4: wonderful administrator. There's a space in between, and that's what
Speaker 4: he occupies.
Speaker 1: That's I think a really good point. And the truth
Speaker 1: is being better than Donald Trump at anything does not make.
Speaker 2: You good at something.
Speaker 1: I want to talk to you about Pushaw, Christina Prushaw.
Speaker 1: What's his story there? She's the big lipped Twitter kind
Speaker 1: of monster that is a part of Desanta's world. But
Speaker 1: I feel like I've never encountered a presidential candidate who
Speaker 1: has sort of a handler like that.
Speaker 4: I think how you describe her there, how she acts
Speaker 4: on social media is correct, but the tense is important here.
Speaker 4: She was that if you've noticed her Twitter persona is
Speaker 4: essentially just she's a factory of where retweets. At this point,
Speaker 4: the the personality, the personal attacks, the things that defined
Speaker 4: her as she was really sort of coming on the
Speaker 4: scene are largely gone. I think she's pretty much sidelined
Speaker 4: at this point, and I think is brand de Santis
Speaker 4: does Morning Joe, you know, three times a week now.
Speaker 4: I think the general idea of their premise that Robert
Speaker 4: Media has sort of lost its power and that there's
Speaker 4: going to be this rise of this new sort of
Speaker 4: far right attack media ecosystem is largely fall flat. We've
Speaker 4: sort of seen that. I mean, just on Tuesday morning,
Speaker 4: I think it was Tuesday morning or Monday night, there
Speaker 4: was some Tucker Carlson interview where he sort of trashed
Speaker 4: the Desantas press handlers and the people, and it, to me,
Speaker 4: it felt like sort of the final nail on the
Speaker 4: coffin of that sort of press strategy, because Desantas is
Speaker 4: doing way more mainstream stuff, his sort of biggest, biggest.
Speaker 1: It is interesting they had they had decided they weren't
Speaker 1: going to engage with the mainstream media because they didn't
Speaker 1: need it, because they had everything they wanted and they're
Speaker 1: crazy far right world, and then they just changed their mind.
Speaker 4: It shocked the system initially when it first came on
Speaker 4: the scene, so we were all like, oh my gosh,
Speaker 4: they were getting you know, anytime Sands set a negative story,
Speaker 4: they would get headlines and conservative media outlets and sometimes
Speaker 4: up the Fox News about the reporter. The attacks were
Speaker 4: very personal, but it quickly became white noise what they
Speaker 4: swung at every pitch, So it became easier and easier
Speaker 4: to ignore and not to mention the sort of sophomore
Speaker 4: like the lameness of their jokes, I'm sorry this is
Speaker 4: happening to you, sort of insults that sort of populate
Speaker 4: that ecosystem are just dumb. They flooded the zone and
Speaker 4: it was days of trolls and your your mentions, but
Speaker 4: eventually it's just like, wow, this is this is sort
Speaker 4: of an unimpressive attack. That's that's become easy to ignore.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it is interesting that they out trumped themselves a
Speaker 1: little bit.
Speaker 4: Right, Yeah, I think that's right. I mean Trump came,
Speaker 4: you know, coined the term fake news or really made
Speaker 4: it popular, and I think the DeSantis folks wanted to
Speaker 4: take that to next logical extension and it just wasn't
Speaker 4: strategically smart one and two, I don't think they're quite
Speaker 4: as good at it right.
Speaker 1: Ultimately, Like the thing I'm always struck by with it
Speaker 1: is that desantists had all these policies like it was
Speaker 1: an interview I recently saw I have my when he
Speaker 1: was on Morning Joe Meeka asked him about the sort
Speaker 1: of anti democratic policies of Trump, and DeSantis was like,
Speaker 1: they're not anti democratic enough.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think he said something the effective I don't
Speaker 4: think he could go as far as he could have
Speaker 4: with the or he's granted under the Constitution, and he's
Speaker 4: specifically pivoted to some the quote non violent January sixth folks,
Speaker 4: And I think, I think I know what interview you're
Speaker 4: talking about. Yeah, so I don't. I was asked, I
Speaker 4: forget where, but on some interview about how DeSantis tries
Speaker 4: to till that liner, he tries to navigate those waters,
Speaker 4: and my answer was, well, he's really not. I mean
Speaker 4: he's trying to. You know, it's not like he shies
Speaker 4: away from from some of the things we're talking about
Speaker 4: in any real or material way. He leans into them
Speaker 4: and says, hey, we can can go further under the constitution.
Speaker 4: And if someone can't, as someone says we can't, let's
Speaker 4: go to court. And that's kind of what his administration
Speaker 4: in Florida has been for a long time.
Speaker 1: I me and kind of incredible. Right, Florida is actually
Speaker 1: not as read like. He won by a lot, but
Speaker 1: part of that was because he was running against the
Speaker 1: world's worst politician who had been a Republican, and also
Speaker 1: because the party fell apart.
Speaker 4: Right yep, even I mean, even if you think Charlie
Speaker 4: crist individually is a bad politician, the Democrat ran against
Speaker 4: the Santis that even there was no money, that national
Speaker 4: Democrats completely give up, and he had.
Speaker 2: Been a Republican.
Speaker 1: I mean, you would like ten days ago. I mean,
Speaker 1: it was a complete shit show.
Speaker 4: The number that always jumps out at me in the
Speaker 4: previous midterms, So I guess it would have been twenty eighteen.
Speaker 4: The national Democratic organizations that Constellation spent about sixty million
Speaker 4: in Florida, they spent about two and twenty twenty two.
Speaker 4: So I don't think there's a way to underscore a
Speaker 4: twenty point win in Florida. And I actually think Desantas
Speaker 4: deserves some credit for that, just because it's so big
Speaker 4: in a state for no recounts and super so he
Speaker 4: had an impressive of twenty twenty two, and it should
Speaker 4: have been a good springboard into you know, a little
Speaker 4: more momentum headed into his presidential race, and it's just
Speaker 4: what I think is kind of mind boggling is how
Speaker 4: quickly that massive victory America's governor, all that stuff fell
Speaker 4: flat as soon as the rubber and me at the
Speaker 4: road on the presidential cycle.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I also think running on COVID when
Speaker 1: COVID is not the central right, like, I mean, the
Speaker 1: whole idea is going to run on how well he did,
Speaker 1: which really he didn't, but whatever, for a pandemic that
Speaker 1: isn't what people are focused on anymore.
Speaker 2: I think is also interesting.
Speaker 4: He only really started to lean into it once desperation
Speaker 4: mode kicked in. I mean, when he started with you know,
Speaker 4: two hundred million dollars budgets for a super pack and
Speaker 4: all this this crazymera of this momentum, he wouldn't do
Speaker 4: any of the fauci stuffing into the vaccine stuff. He
Speaker 4: didn't attack Trump at all. So he's now really running
Speaker 4: on COVID and sort of his record during the height
Speaker 4: of the pandemic that which conservatives like. But it came
Speaker 4: much later in the game when the poll numbers were
Speaker 4: already you know, headed in the wrong direction for him.
Speaker 4: And it's not like he opened up with this stuff.
Speaker 4: It became more apparent when he knew he was in trouble.
Speaker 1: The thing that I think is so medieval about him
Speaker 1: is his anti gay stuff, Like that stuff is sort
Speaker 1: of like out of another center.
Speaker 4: The chair of his Republican Party of Florida is in
Speaker 4: his own sex scandal that involves his wife with another woman's.
Speaker 4: I think it's important to note that she that the
Speaker 4: wife and there is accused of nor I'm doing. But
Speaker 4: the hypocrisy aspect of that is started a lot of attention.
Speaker 4: You're certainly right. And one of the things about the
Speaker 4: Santas I do think he believes the things he talks
Speaker 4: about and pushes.
Speaker 2: I do.
Speaker 4: There's some politicians who are are much more performative and
Speaker 4: want to speak to a political base or a political
Speaker 4: supporters in the way that they think works best. I
Speaker 4: do think Desantas says says, you know, for for better
Speaker 4: or worse, and not necessarily the defense of the positions.
Speaker 4: But he believes the stuff we're talking he's talking about
Speaker 4: out and advocates you.
Speaker 2: Think it really does hate gay people.
Speaker 4: What also? I mean, he certainly pushed a lot of
Speaker 4: pieces of legislation and a lot of policy proposals that
Speaker 4: that community does not like. And my point was that
Speaker 4: I actually think he believes these things. It's not performative
Speaker 4: to him.
Speaker 2: No, I think he does genuinely suck.
Speaker 1: But it is interesting, and I also think he's a
Speaker 1: terrible bigot, but it is interesting to me, Like in
Speaker 1: the year twenty twenty three, we have a guy who's like,
Speaker 1: if you teach kids about being gay, they'll be gay.
Speaker 4: When there's been so many unintended consequences. When they sort
Speaker 4: of talk about these pieces of legislation, they don't say
Speaker 4: gay bill, for instance. I mean, it obviously got a
Speaker 4: ton of pushback, but they said it was just going
Speaker 4: to be in classrooms up to third grade.
Speaker 1: Right, But they were totally lying, right because then immediately
Speaker 1: it's now it's at high school.
Speaker 4: They evenformalized that the board that oversees state college is
Speaker 4: largely appointed by the santis. Formally he's expanded it to
Speaker 4: seventh grade. So even there was informal ripple effects from that,
Speaker 4: but even sort of the administrative state. Dare I say
Speaker 4: that Florida's deep state expanded that law as opponents of it.
Speaker 1: I thought it was so interesting with the Moms for Liberty.
Speaker 1: So here she is Bridget Ziegeler involved in. Again, being
Speaker 1: in atois is not against the law, in case anyone's wondering,
Speaker 1: Nor is being married to a guy who may or
Speaker 1: may not. But it's certainly their is accused of raping
Speaker 1: a woman. But it is interesting to me. You know,
Speaker 1: she did send her kids to private school while being
Speaker 1: on the school board. So this level of you know,
Speaker 1: calling everyone a groomer and then actually being married or
Speaker 1: accused rapist is pretty interesting stuff.
Speaker 4: Well, it was also acknowledged. I mean, she's openly talked
Speaker 4: about the fact that she had a helping hand in
Speaker 4: craft that don't say yalaengislation. So the criminal investigation aside,
Speaker 4: there's a whole can of worms about hypocrisy that I
Speaker 4: think is getting a lot of attention right now and
Speaker 4: probably should.
Speaker 1: One of the other things that Florida has done is
Speaker 1: they have you know, so you can't teach about sexuality,
Speaker 1: but you also can't at an abortion, right. I mean,
Speaker 1: he had a more moderate sance on abortion. He changed it, right,
Speaker 1: let's talk about DeSantis. Yeah.
Speaker 4: Well, and also I think there is some self realization
Speaker 4: on his part that it's not popular because he didn't
Speaker 4: get a ton of attention at the time, and maybe
Speaker 4: he should is he When he signed to Florida's six
Speaker 4: week abortion man. He did it, which is very rare
Speaker 4: for him, eleven thirty at night in his office usually
Speaker 4: the bills. I mean, DeSantis is well known for having
Speaker 4: huge splashet press conferences when he does bill signings or
Speaker 4: things of that nature. And this was done, you know,
Speaker 4: in the darkness of night in his office, So I
Speaker 4: think there were some clear signals there that he knew,
Speaker 4: you know. I think he wanted to sign it. I
Speaker 4: think he believes in it, but he realized what he
Speaker 4: was doing wasn't wasn't going to be helpful for him,
Speaker 4: but he.
Speaker 2: Felt he had to do it to win the nomination
Speaker 2: right well.
Speaker 4: And I also think, like I had mentioned earlier about
Speaker 4: he believes in the stuff he does. I do think
Speaker 4: he believes in the stuff at a personal level. As
Speaker 4: you're preparing your run for president in a Republican primary,
Speaker 4: can't be a video an abortion bills.
Speaker 1: Let's get away from the insane religious zelism, zealadism, zolatinism.
Speaker 1: I've just made up the word and talk about the lifts.
Speaker 1: So he's wearing these cowboy boots. He's obviously not a
Speaker 1: hugely tall guy. He's wearing kebbo boots. Is he just
Speaker 1: think nobody's gonna notice. I mean, like some of these
Speaker 1: unforced errors seem like they just he just never occupied Earth. Wan.
Speaker 4: Well, there is a thing, and maybe this is like
Speaker 4: just a backwoods Tallahassee thing, but like suits and cowboy boots,
Speaker 4: like is a thing that happens here with some degree
Speaker 4: of regularity. It's not like a unique fashion sense, and
Speaker 4: a lot of the governor's staff also wear them. But
Speaker 4: where I think the problem is is where he's got
Speaker 4: like the wicked wish of the West look, where the
Speaker 4: like the boots are actually sort of like curling up,
Speaker 4: and it's very clear this is a normal look. So
Speaker 4: where the gator boots, especially gators in Florida, the gator
Speaker 4: boots with the suit, I will say, at least here
Speaker 4: isn't like that rare of a look. I just think
Speaker 4: that was new for a lot of people, you know,
Speaker 4: outside of Florida. But the way he wears them is
Speaker 4: getting some attention in a way that I don't think
Speaker 4: he anticipated. And it's because it's clear, it's clear those
Speaker 4: feet aren't going all the way they end.
Speaker 1: So what snacks for Ronda d Santis? He is d
Speaker 1: term limited. Where do you think this goes?
Speaker 4: I think he would still in his mind like to
Speaker 4: run for president again one day. I think the big
Speaker 4: question moving forward is going to be, is you know,
Speaker 4: clearly the sort of maga Trump crowd still controls the
Speaker 4: Republican base, and to what degree is he damaged to
Speaker 4: himself and his name with those voters if it's possible
Speaker 4: from running in So I think those are going to
Speaker 4: have to be questions he's gonna have to hash out.
Speaker 4: He's still got three legislative sessions left here in Florida
Speaker 4: and then perhaps a long four years to figure it out.
Speaker 1: People like to speculate on the idea that Casey may
Speaker 1: run for governor. Is that just completely stupid or is
Speaker 1: that like a real thing.
Speaker 4: I think it's a real thing. I've always thought it
Speaker 4: would be more like they should run for your Senate
Speaker 4: simply because and this is just a ramp speculation, because
Speaker 4: you know Tallahassee versus well, the conversation about it has
Speaker 4: been out there for quite some time, especially here, So
Speaker 4: I'm not just speculating, you know, without there being some
Speaker 4: basis for it. But she rarely be in DC than Tallahassee.
Speaker 4: But also I think most people here, I mean, I've
Speaker 4: seen plenty of her speeches, and whatever the contents of
Speaker 4: the speech aside, she's got more political talent than her husband.
Speaker 2: Right, that's what everybody says.
Speaker 4: I kind of see it that way as well. But
Speaker 4: you know, she's been old many many times in potential
Speaker 4: twenty twenty six over the next Minitario race here, and
Speaker 4: she does quite well with Republicans, So I don't know
Speaker 4: if it's much more than just sort of speculation and
Speaker 4: sort of you know, chatter among you know, political observers.
Speaker 4: At this point, I think it could happen, and I
Speaker 4: certainly don't think it's unrealistic to talk about her think
Speaker 4: that it might be a reality.
Speaker 2: I hate that. Thank you so much. I hope you'll
Speaker 2: come back.
Speaker 4: I hope you have you back, and I enjoyed it.
Speaker 3: Your Truflemov is the chief foreign affairs correspondent at the
Speaker 3: Wall Street Journal and aaughter of our enemies will vanish
Speaker 3: the Russian invasion and Ukraine's war on independence.
Speaker 2: Welcome to Fast Politics.
Speaker 4: Yourself, Hi, Hi, grace to be in a show.
Speaker 2: Really excited to have you.
Speaker 1: You are the chief foreign affairs correspondent for the Wall
Speaker 1: Street Journal. And also we both were finals for the
Speaker 1: Pilitzer Prize. Just kidding, No, I was not. That's hilarious
Speaker 1: speak really because now never. So let's talk about what
Speaker 1: it's like right now in Ukraine.
Speaker 5: Well, you know, the war is almost two years old
Speaker 5: by now, and the miracle is that Ukraine has not collapsed.
Speaker 5: Ukraine has fought back. He ukrainely reclaimed about half of
Speaker 5: Atlanta rosa regionally conquered, and considering the disparacy and the
Speaker 5: size and the sheer military power of the two nations,
Speaker 5: it's a very unexpected outcome. You know, if you remember
Speaker 5: what was happening in the first days of the war,
Speaker 5: everyone I was giving up Ukraine for dead, including the US,
Speaker 5: and it hasn't died. Yes, you know, there are setbacks,
Speaker 5: and yes, of course, the war's stuff and the mounting
Speaker 5: casualties and the reluctance of a Western country such as
Speaker 5: the US to provide more funding because of internal politics
Speaker 5: is obviously contributing to the toll.
Speaker 4: But Ukraine is resistant and Russia has not been able
Speaker 4: to advance.
Speaker 2: Tell me what you think. This has been such a
Speaker 2: weird war in a lot of ways, like.
Speaker 1: Things have not happened in the way that it's been
Speaker 1: predicted again and again. Is that really because of the
Speaker 1: strength of the Ukrainian people or is there more to
Speaker 1: the story.
Speaker 5: Well, you know, this has been really Yoya war, not
Speaker 5: so much in terms of the actual wars, in terms
Speaker 5: of public perceptions. So one day it was Ukraine as doomed.
Speaker 5: Next day Russia is weak and is in a colossus
Speaker 5: and clay Feet is going to collapse. Then oh no,
Speaker 5: well Russia can steal fights. And then again, so it's
Speaker 5: been kind of like this for two years. People have
Speaker 5: dramatically underestimated Ukraine, its ability to its ability to function
Speaker 5: in society, and its ability to fight. People have also
Speaker 5: at first overestimated to Russian military might and the strength
Speaker 5: of the Great Russian Army. But then they made the
Speaker 5: other mistake and they you know, they just decided that
Speaker 5: the Russian army is crumbling. And obviously the Russians also
Speaker 5: learned from their mistakes and they have grouped and.
Speaker 4: They used the time that they had from summer twenty
Speaker 4: twenty two until the summer of twenty twenty three to regroup,
Speaker 4: to begin to prepare.
Speaker 5: And by the time Ukrainians finally received Western tanks, you know,
Speaker 5: Bradley's Strikers, their parts and all the other year that
Speaker 5: had been asking for for more than a year for
Speaker 5: their summer offensive the twenty twenty three, you know, the
Speaker 5: Russians were ready, and there was a lot more of
Speaker 5: them because you had mobilized hundreds of thousands of reservists.
Speaker 1: But part of what's happening is that the Russians are
Speaker 1: not great fighters, right, I mean, Russia itself is having
Speaker 1: its own sort of come to Jesus moment with the war, right, Well.
Speaker 5: I mean, Russians are not bad fighters. Obviously, what we
Speaker 5: have seen in this war is that the Russians are
Speaker 5: ready to go and die, which is sending hundreds of
Speaker 5: thousands to the semi grinder, and there's been little resistance
Speaker 5: and people just obey and go and go in these
Speaker 5: massive waves that eventually a cheaper result. You know, they
Speaker 5: did take the city of Bahmut in the early twenty
Speaker 5: twenty three, you know, at the cost of tens of
Speaker 5: thousands of people, but then it did take it. So
Speaker 5: obviously the Russians have issues with command and control. They
Speaker 5: have issues with sort of modern tactics, but you know,
Speaker 5: there is a lot of them. It's a very big
Speaker 5: army of a very big country, and they have managed
Speaker 5: to build the military industries and to produce ammunition on
Speaker 5: a scale that the West has not been able to do.
Speaker 2: Right, I mean, what is it like being on the ground.
Speaker 1: You've covered a lot of wars. I mean, is this different?
Speaker 1: I feel like there's a sense in which you are
Speaker 1: in Europe and that in itself is radically different than
Speaker 1: other wars.
Speaker 5: Well, yeah, I covered the wars all my perstaurant life,
Speaker 5: you know, in Iraq in two thousand and three, in
Speaker 5: Afghani stand for many years, you know, Liberia, you name it,
Speaker 5: and it's all wars in Europe, in the Bulk, in
Speaker 5: Georgia and Dream two thous and eight. But you know,
Speaker 5: I was born in Ukraine. You know, I grew up
Speaker 5: in Teare. My family has been there for generation since.
Speaker 5: So obviously seeing invading armies bombard the streets where you
Speaker 5: know you have childhood memories is completely different on the
Speaker 5: sort of sigical level. You know, it's infuriating, you know,
Speaker 5: how dare they? You know, like I had my first
Speaker 5: kiss on the sparking on missiles, the phone. But also
Speaker 5: in a way it was much simpler because most of
Speaker 5: the wars I've covered have many layers of complexity, and
Speaker 5: you know, neither side is one hundred percent in the
Speaker 5: right usually, whereas here it was a very clear.
Speaker 4: Cut moral case. You know, Ukraine hadn't done anything merridis.
Speaker 5: It was invaded by Putting because of his sheer ideas
Speaker 5: of imperial conquest and world domination, and Ukraine was resisting morally,
Speaker 5: you know, without you know, killing civilians, without breaking in
Speaker 5: the international material law and.
Speaker 4: Using pretty much its own resources in the first few months.
Speaker 4: In a way, it was a very black and white war.
Speaker 4: It still is compared to many other complexs we're seeing now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it is very black and white, right, there's a
Speaker 1: bad guy, which it's so in some ways. It's so
Speaker 1: different in a way because with what's happening with Israel
Speaker 1: and past and like, it's not the same. It's not
Speaker 1: as cut and dry, right, I mean, there's much more
Speaker 1: nuance in that war wars there is in this one.
Speaker 1: Can you sort of explain to our listeners what the
Speaker 1: story is between what happened with Putin and his and
Speaker 1: that militia group that was part of the army, and
Speaker 1: then he killed the head of it. And can you
Speaker 1: just sort of explain if that did anything or affected
Speaker 1: anything in the war.
Speaker 5: Well, it certain it did because Wagner, as this mercenary
Speaker 5: group known it was the most efficient part of the
Speaker 5: Russian military. You know, after the Russians were outed around
Speaker 5: Kiev in the first weeks of the war, the only
Speaker 5: area where they could advance in the bus was the
Speaker 5: area where Wagner was operating anyhow, and they brought this
Speaker 5: dip from Syria from Africa. They all experienced, had best,
Speaker 5: recruited the best and brightest in the regular Russian military, and.
Speaker 4: Paid them a lot of money and had a lot
Speaker 4: of resources.
Speaker 5: And then they tried for almost a year to take
Speaker 5: the city of Bachmut. They did take it, and they lost,
Speaker 5: according to Hubhani, Pregosian leader of Wagner, you know, upwards
Speaker 5: of thirty thousand men, so pretty much they lost everything.
Speaker 5: And that that really caused this attempt at a pouch,
Speaker 5: after which it survived, Wagner was disbanded, Pregaussian died in
Speaker 5: a mysterious playing crash.
Speaker 4: Bottom line is that no longer exists as a credible
Speaker 4: military force, and he credit doesn't have to fear it.
Speaker 1: Right, do you think that pregosion would have otherwise sort
Speaker 1: of taken over for Putin? I mean, do you think
Speaker 1: he was making a play that way?
Speaker 5: Well, he was looking at play, but I don't think
Speaker 5: he was a man who thought things through necessarily. He
Speaker 5: was himself traumatized by spending a week's month and the
Speaker 5: bombardment in Bafmut. He didn't seem to have a clear plan,
Speaker 5: and he was counting on support within the Russian military.
Speaker 4: They didn't come through at the end.
Speaker 5: But what he spoke about the ideas, he voiced our
Speaker 5: ideas that are shared by many in the Russian military.
Speaker 5: And he was complaining about how the war was not
Speaker 5: waged in a correct way. It had been prepared and
Speaker 5: it was pointless, he said in his very last speech
Speaker 5: before the attempted She said that Zelenski was offering us
Speaker 5: peace and Putin could have just come down from the
Speaker 5: Olympus and talked, but Putting refused the job. To Zolanski
Speaker 5: apuentil the invasion.
Speaker 1: It feels like Putin has that this has really tested
Speaker 1: his I don't even want to say presidency because he's
Speaker 1: not really a president, but has threatened his rule in
Speaker 1: a way. Other events happened. Do you think that's right?
Speaker 1: And if so, can you talk about that?
Speaker 5: Well, I mean what happened is that, you know, the
Speaker 5: war definitely backfires and putting the war is painful for
Speaker 5: the Russian side, to the Russian economy and the war
Speaker 5: everybody acknowledges in Russia and didn't go to plant I
Speaker 5: mean the planet was to take key injuries.
Speaker 4: And so now he's stuck with it. He stuck with
Speaker 4: the war. He's stuck with the Mountain death Tollhundreds of
Speaker 4: thousands of Russian soldiers were killed or maimed on the
Speaker 4: battlefield and you know many more will be in coming month.
Speaker 4: And so you know, he's in a way a hostage
Speaker 4: of the situation because he cannot end the war without
Speaker 4: losing face and perhaps losing power. And so there we
Speaker 4: are in this and you know, his goals and the
Speaker 4: war haven't changed. You know, he still wants to take
Speaker 4: all of Ukraine and maybe.
Speaker 5: March forward, and he's banking on the fact that the
Speaker 5: US and other Western nations will tire of supporting Ukraine
Speaker 5: military and financially and he will prevail. And it's not
Speaker 5: a completely unrealistic line of thinking, especially if President Trump.
Speaker 4: Wins elections in the US and you know, he hasn't
Speaker 4: indicated great nudism for spending as a billions of dollars
Speaker 4: in Ukraine.
Speaker 1: It feels very much like the Republican Party is going
Speaker 1: to work quite hard to make sure that Ukraine doesn't
Speaker 1: get any money. Are Europeans willing to backstop it? It
Speaker 1: feels like geographically, if Putin rolls through Ukraine and Poland
Speaker 1: is next, and this is much bigger danger to Europe.
Speaker 2: I mean, it's certainly danger to all of us.
Speaker 1: But I mean, do you think that Europe or backstops
Speaker 1: some of those can they?
Speaker 2: Are they even capable?
Speaker 4: Well, I mean, first of all, I mean, let's see
Speaker 4: what happens with the Republican Party. You know, they're still
Speaker 4: negotiating some sort of package that includes border security. You know,
Speaker 4: the Republicans in the Senate for sure haven't abandoned Ukraine
Speaker 4: just yet. If banks do collapse and negotiations should studied
Speaker 4: anywhere and the US plane is not forthcoming, Europe of
Speaker 4: course is trying to step in, and especially the Germans
Speaker 4: because they view this as a direct threat to their
Speaker 4: own national security. You know, better have an ocean given
Speaker 4: them in Russia. But this is capacity. You know, most
Speaker 4: of the military eight I mean from the US is
Speaker 4: coming from the US because the US has the stop
Speaker 4: piles of feminition, fighting vehicles, tanks and the industries that
Speaker 4: may call it stuff that blows up. The Europeans don't
Speaker 4: and will take them a few years to build up
Speaker 4: that capacity. So that is the big bottleneck there right exactly.
Speaker 1: I mean, doesn't it seem strange to you that you
Speaker 1: have one political party that has turned so radically? I mean,
Speaker 1: isn't it sort of surprising you because like I grew
Speaker 1: up with a Republican party that was much more interested
Speaker 1: in nation building if nothing else.
Speaker 4: Well, I mean, I guess on one hand, you do
Speaker 4: have the blowback from all his experiments in your rock
Speaker 4: and elsewhere. They didn't go exactly to plan.
Speaker 5: But on the end, let's also look at three alasy
Speaker 5: not the entire Republican parties anti Ukrainian that very allowed
Speaker 5: to voices on the fringes, but Republican leaders in the
Speaker 5: House and in the Senate and still say they will
Speaker 5: not allow Putting to win.
Speaker 4: They will support Ukraine at least verybody. The support is
Speaker 4: still there, so let's see that translates into votes the
Speaker 4: coming weeks and month you.
Speaker 1: Were in Afghanistan, you covered that Taliban takeover that sort
Speaker 1: of held up is when the shit goes really wrong,
Speaker 1: and Zelenski is held up as sort of the leader
Speaker 1: when things go right. Do you think that's true or
Speaker 1: do you think that's a big over simplification And can
Speaker 1: you explain to us a little bit about that.
Speaker 5: Well, you know, I wasn't cobble on that. The cable
Speaker 5: fell and it was very sudden, you know. The night
Speaker 5: before the Avid president ash from Ghani inspected the troops,
Speaker 5: the were ready to defend it, and by noon he
Speaker 5: was in helicopter flying away and the city just collapsed
Speaker 5: in front of my eyes. The Taliban were in my
Speaker 5: hotel by the afternoon. So while and I was in
Speaker 5: Kiev when the warm again, And my fear then was,
Speaker 5: you know, what if Sardanski decides to do the same,
Speaker 5: What if he decides to fly away and he was offered,
Speaker 5: you know what where uders were calling him and tell him,
Speaker 5: you know, come to London, set up a government in exile,
Speaker 5: and he said no, and That's why Ukraine held and
Speaker 5: that courage of refusing to think about his own personal
Speaker 5: safety and thinking about the country was a very big
Speaker 5: element of why Ukraine still stands as a sobeern nation.
Speaker 5: I think a big difference between Afghanistan and Ukrainians. But
Speaker 5: Asad was a civil war. It was the civil war.
Speaker 5: The Taliban our representative of a large proportion of the
Speaker 5: Augden people, not the majority necessarily, but still a significant
Speaker 5: part of the population, and the government was seen as
Speaker 5: an instrument of the foreign invaders. In Ukraine is the opposite.
Speaker 5: You know, you have a government that was elected. You know,
Speaker 5: Slanski got more than seventy five percent of the vote
Speaker 5: facing for invasion, and the Americans were nowhere to be
Speaker 5: seen when the war started. If you remember, SAMs was closed,
Speaker 5: all personnel were withdrawn from Kiev, and there was very
Speaker 5: little American military coming at the time. You know, Ukraine
Speaker 5: fought for its independence in the first month of the
Speaker 5: war using largely its own weapons, Soviet standard weapons.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: I just want to get back to Afghanistan for a second.
Speaker 1: Do you think that there were failures that America could
Speaker 1: have seen earlier with Afghanistan?
Speaker 2: I mean, I read so much coverage about it.
Speaker 1: It just feels like we don't get the whole story
Speaker 1: with Afghanistan.
Speaker 5: Well, I mean, Afghanistan is a very long complex and
Speaker 5: the US was started two decades. If you were asking
Speaker 5: me what was the main failure, I think the main
Speaker 5: failure was in the very beginning, after the US got
Speaker 5: rid of al Qaeda in Afghanistan and got rid of
Speaker 5: the Taliban regime, the tailor band asks to be included,
Speaker 5: seeing some sort of you know, future unity system, and
Speaker 5: President Karzai was backing that, but instead the US decided
Speaker 5: to go after them and you know, detain what our
Speaker 5: taliban that could find and send them to go in
Speaker 5: tannam Obay, and that really gave birth insurgency that doomed
Speaker 5: the entire nation building effort because you could really exclude this,
Speaker 5: you know, significant political force from the future of the country.
Speaker 4: We don't have that problem in Ukraine.
Speaker 2: Yeah. So interesting.
Speaker 1: We're out of time, but I really appreciate you, and
Speaker 1: I hope we can talk again.
Speaker 4: Absolutely, it was great stalk to you.
Speaker 2: That's it for.
Speaker 1: This episode of Fast Politics. Tune in every Monday, Wednesday
Speaker 1: and Friday to hear the best minds in politics makes sense.
Speaker 2: Of all this chaos.
Speaker 1: If you enjoyed what you've heard, please send it to
Speaker 1: a friend and keep the conversation going.
Speaker 2: And again, thanks for listening.