WEBVTT - Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged, Iran's Nuclear Capabilities 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:08.360 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:08.920 --> 0:00:13.240 This is Bloomberg business Week Daily reporting from the magazine 0:00:13.240 --> 0:00:17.840 that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, 0:00:17.880 --> 0:00:22.760 and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business, finance 0:00:22.800 --> 0:00:26.120 and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week 0:00:26.239 --> 0:00:31.720 Daily Podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Steneveek on Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:32.479 --> 0:00:35.000 Let's just remind everybody, here's what happened FED officials. You 0:00:35.040 --> 0:00:38.479 heard it from Charlie leaving interest rates unchanged, continuing to 0:00:38.520 --> 0:00:41.440 pencil in two rate cuts in twenty twenty five, saying 0:00:41.479 --> 0:00:45.000 uncertainty over the economic outlook was still high but had diminished, 0:00:45.360 --> 0:00:48.080 and that effect can be kind of patient, it seems 0:00:48.120 --> 0:00:51.000 like as it awaits more information, here's fetchirt J. 0:00:51.120 --> 0:00:51.400 Powell. 0:00:52.159 --> 0:00:54.880 We feel like the right thing to do is to 0:00:54.880 --> 0:00:57.400 be where we are, where our policy stance is, and 0:00:57.520 --> 0:01:00.160 just learn more. In particular, we feel like we're going 0:00:59.960 --> 0:01:03.240 to learn a great deal more over the summer on tariffs. 0:01:03.240 --> 0:01:06.840 We hadn't expected them to show up much by now, 0:01:06.880 --> 0:01:09.759 and they haven't, and we will see whether the extent 0:01:09.800 --> 0:01:12.160 to which they do or overcoming months. And I think 0:01:12.160 --> 0:01:14.120 that's going to inform our thinking. 0:01:14.800 --> 0:01:17.199 All right, That of course was fedya Jay Powell earlier 0:01:17.200 --> 0:01:18.479 at the FOMC press conference. 0:01:18.560 --> 0:01:19.039 Let's get to it. 0:01:19.080 --> 0:01:22.480 Let's get more on the investment landscape, also the rate landscape, 0:01:22.920 --> 0:01:25.480 and how the FED decision and commentary may affect all 0:01:25.520 --> 0:01:25.720 of it. 0:01:25.800 --> 0:01:27.160 Are we all going to kind of just wait for 0:01:27.200 --> 0:01:28.000 the next FED meeting? 0:01:28.200 --> 0:01:30.839 Ross Mayfield is with us, these investment strategists at BAIRED 0:01:30.840 --> 0:01:33.600 Private Wealth Management from Louisville, Kentucky. 0:01:33.680 --> 0:01:34.160 Also with us. 0:01:34.160 --> 0:01:38.240 Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest rates strategist Ira Jersey out 0:01:38.280 --> 0:01:39.480 there in New Jersey. 0:01:39.640 --> 0:01:41.319 Hey, Ira, I want to kick it off with you. 0:01:41.840 --> 0:01:43.280 Some went into this meeting truly. 0:01:43.400 --> 0:01:47.120 I was listening to Bloomberg Television's coverage, really TV and 0:01:47.240 --> 0:01:50.000 radios coverage of the FED decision. Some said it was 0:01:50.000 --> 0:01:52.400 going to be boring. Some expected not much to happen. 0:01:52.480 --> 0:01:53.440 Others said it's never. 0:01:53.320 --> 0:01:56.040 Bell, It's never boring for us, right. 0:01:56.200 --> 0:01:57.080 Well, sometimes it is. 0:01:57.920 --> 0:01:59.760 And then others said it was going to be historic 0:02:00.000 --> 0:02:02.400 because all that is coming at the FED right now. 0:02:02.920 --> 0:02:05.400 Why was there such a gap going into this meeting? 0:02:06.360 --> 0:02:08.680 Yeah, I think there's some people who think that, firstly, 0:02:08.720 --> 0:02:11.040 that the Federal Reserve does have to cut interest rates 0:02:11.080 --> 0:02:13.440 because they see cracks in certain parts of the economy. 0:02:13.480 --> 0:02:16.480 And then there's other people who are fearful of tariffs 0:02:16.480 --> 0:02:19.560 and think that, you know, inflation might increase. And you 0:02:19.600 --> 0:02:23.000 even heard that the last question, which was about how 0:02:23.040 --> 0:02:26.360 come no one was projecting rate increases even though there 0:02:26.360 --> 0:02:28.440 were a number of members who were thinking the Fed 0:02:28.520 --> 0:02:30.040 is going to be on hold for the entire year 0:02:30.400 --> 0:02:31.639 and then cut a bit next year. 0:02:32.600 --> 0:02:35.360 You know, I this was as I expected. 0:02:35.400 --> 0:02:38.720 And what's always interesting about this, you know, and we 0:02:38.919 --> 0:02:42.560 have to as market professionals kind of parse every single 0:02:42.760 --> 0:02:44.480 thing coming out of the FED Reserve. 0:02:45.720 --> 0:02:49.360 Is the reaction function? Right? What is the Fed's reaction function? 0:02:49.480 --> 0:02:52.040 So we heard a number of if van statements from 0:02:52.080 --> 0:02:55.720 Jare Powell, and you know, those ifan statements could mean, 0:02:56.440 --> 0:02:57.959 you know, give us at least a little bit of 0:02:57.960 --> 0:03:00.799 an indication under what circumstances, don't make any kind of 0:03:00.840 --> 0:03:01.760 policy adjustments. 0:03:02.280 --> 0:03:04.080 Hey, Ross, come on in here and just give us 0:03:04.120 --> 0:03:07.840 your general overview of how the meeting went, your expectations, 0:03:07.840 --> 0:03:09.440 Where they met, where they not met. What was your 0:03:09.440 --> 0:03:10.079 big takeaway? 0:03:10.560 --> 0:03:10.760 Yeah? 0:03:10.760 --> 0:03:11.760 I think they were largely met. 0:03:11.800 --> 0:03:14.760 I mean, I don't know anyone who expected much action 0:03:14.919 --> 0:03:17.799 at this meeting or a resolution of all the uncertainty 0:03:18.120 --> 0:03:20.400 that they've been discussing at this meeting. Given that we're 0:03:20.400 --> 0:03:23.160 still in this kind of tariff pause, you know, we 0:03:23.240 --> 0:03:26.120 have the potential for oil prices to swing and impact 0:03:26.160 --> 0:03:26.920 headline inflation. 0:03:27.040 --> 0:03:29.079 So I didn't expect much. 0:03:30.160 --> 0:03:32.280 I'm on the side of the camp that thinks the 0:03:32.320 --> 0:03:35.120 FED should be a little more aggressive and cutting. I 0:03:35.120 --> 0:03:38.480 think the cracks in the labor market are starting to 0:03:38.520 --> 0:03:41.080 really accumulate. And to hear Finch, our pals say that 0:03:41.120 --> 0:03:43.280 the labor market is I forget the exact language, but 0:03:43.320 --> 0:03:44.120 on solid footing. 0:03:44.200 --> 0:03:46.480 Yeah, he wouldn't agree with you. I think Ross that 0:03:47.080 --> 0:03:49.240 the cracks are starting to appear. What data are you 0:03:49.400 --> 0:03:51.200 paying attention to that he's not And. 0:03:51.160 --> 0:03:55.040 Perhaps that headline Microsoft planning thousands more job cuts you. 0:03:54.960 --> 0:03:55.480 Know that we saw. 0:03:56.080 --> 0:04:01.800 Certainly, yeah, certainly, the anecdotal evidence of layoff is rising. 0:04:01.840 --> 0:04:04.120 But if you look at something like warn notices or 0:04:04.160 --> 0:04:07.160 initial claims and continued claims, I mean we're sitting at 0:04:07.480 --> 0:04:09.680 multi year highs for a lot of those levels. 0:04:09.920 --> 0:04:11.000 If you look at some. 0:04:11.000 --> 0:04:14.880 Of the employment statistics about people fresh into the job 0:04:14.960 --> 0:04:17.000 for us out of college. You know that the unemployment 0:04:17.080 --> 0:04:20.159 rate there is at not record highs by any means, 0:04:20.200 --> 0:04:23.000 but is significantly higher than the overall on employment rate. 0:04:23.080 --> 0:04:25.920 So I think it's a labor market where we have 0:04:26.040 --> 0:04:28.560 tight supply, and especially in this you know, given the 0:04:28.600 --> 0:04:31.680 immigration policy, but it is not a robust labor market, 0:04:31.760 --> 0:04:34.520 and we are well north of a neutral policy. I 0:04:34.520 --> 0:04:38.159 think that getting to neutral should be more more of 0:04:38.200 --> 0:04:40.320 a goal for the Fed, who doesn't seem to want 0:04:40.360 --> 0:04:42.039 to get there until the end of twenty twenty six 0:04:42.040 --> 0:04:42.960 if you look at the CCP. 0:04:43.200 --> 0:04:45.800 All right, come on in airah, yeah. 0:04:45.920 --> 0:04:47.440 So I just want to want to say I think 0:04:47.480 --> 0:04:50.679 that's part of this debate, like where is neutral? And 0:04:50.880 --> 0:04:53.680 you know, there's you know, the Fed will say that 0:04:53.720 --> 0:04:57.719 they're still have restrictive policy, but a lot of the 0:04:57.760 --> 0:05:01.440 other information that that's some of us, me included, have 0:05:01.480 --> 0:05:04.520 looked at suggests that actually they're probably pretty close to neutral. 0:05:04.880 --> 0:05:08.440 So unless there's a deceleration of the economy, the Fed 0:05:08.480 --> 0:05:10.599 probably doesn't have to adjust interest rates. 0:05:10.600 --> 0:05:10.840 Now. 0:05:11.279 --> 0:05:15.360 The question is, and to Cross's point, like they can't 0:05:15.400 --> 0:05:19.240 wait until the economy is clearly really bad before. 0:05:19.000 --> 0:05:20.080 They cut interest rates. 0:05:20.520 --> 0:05:23.880 But I do suspect that because of this overhang of 0:05:24.000 --> 0:05:28.040 inflation and the recent past episode that we just had, 0:05:28.440 --> 0:05:30.760 that the Fed will try to wait until almost the 0:05:30.839 --> 0:05:33.479 last minute, and then once it cuts, it'll cut faster. 0:05:33.560 --> 0:05:35.600 And I go back to the statement that J. 0:05:35.839 --> 0:05:38.760 Powell made in May at at the press conference, where 0:05:38.800 --> 0:05:40.600 he said, like, look, we know how to deal with 0:05:41.120 --> 0:05:44.080 a weak economy. We could just cut more aggressively and 0:05:44.240 --> 0:05:48.360 get down below the neutral rate to stimulate the economy. 0:05:48.880 --> 0:05:50.400 We don't want to have to go the other way 0:05:50.440 --> 0:05:54.000 and have to hike interest rates rate if inflation were 0:05:54.080 --> 0:05:55.640 to remain relatively high. 0:05:56.000 --> 0:05:59.040 Hey, Ira, a couple more to you, and then we're 0:05:59.040 --> 0:06:02.200 going to bring ross back in here. But I'm wondering 0:06:02.400 --> 0:06:06.120 about a couple of things here. One specifically, is the 0:06:06.200 --> 0:06:09.600 question of AI and the labor force. The bed chair 0:06:09.760 --> 0:06:12.400 was asked about that, Carol, and I cannot stop talking 0:06:12.400 --> 0:06:15.240 about this. What did you make of the way that 0:06:15.520 --> 0:06:18.480 he answered this question about AI and the effect on 0:06:18.480 --> 0:06:19.400 the labor face feels like. 0:06:19.360 --> 0:06:20.719 There's a pig pile of all of a sudden, people 0:06:20.720 --> 0:06:22.800 are waking up and saying, Okay, there's going to be 0:06:22.960 --> 0:06:24.520 a lot of jobs lost because of AI. 0:06:25.480 --> 0:06:26.920 Well, there's always disruptions. 0:06:26.960 --> 0:06:29.719 Whenever you have new technologies, there's always disruptions and you 0:06:29.760 --> 0:06:32.520 wind up having you know, layoffs in some sectors, and 0:06:32.560 --> 0:06:36.160 then the new economy creates other jobs and new jobs. 0:06:36.440 --> 0:06:40.520 We've done that over centuries since, you know, even before 0:06:40.520 --> 0:06:45.160 the Industrial Revolution, you've always seen you know, things replacing 0:06:45.160 --> 0:06:46.920 other things. I mean, we did it thirty years ago. 0:06:46.960 --> 0:06:49.360 Right when you think about the Internet, and you know 0:06:49.400 --> 0:06:53.000 in nineteen ninety five, very few firms had websites. Yet 0:06:53.040 --> 0:06:55.800 today everyone does, right, and this is kind of an 0:06:55.839 --> 0:06:59.640 extension of that. So we created a whole new economy 0:06:59.680 --> 0:07:02.920 around the Internet that now is creating more jobs. Whereas 0:07:03.000 --> 0:07:06.520 robotics and other things like manufacturing, they're less people are 0:07:06.560 --> 0:07:09.440 needed to do the same amount of work in labor 0:07:09.720 --> 0:07:11.200 than was needed in nineteen seventies. 0:07:11.560 --> 0:07:12.400 H So true. 0:07:12.440 --> 0:07:14.960 Socho hey, Ross just got about twenty five seconds left here, 0:07:15.000 --> 0:07:17.239 Mike McKee saying, nobody on the committee has any conviction 0:07:17.320 --> 0:07:20.560 on these forecasts, so don't take us seriously on the 0:07:20.600 --> 0:07:22.200 rate cuts. Things will change. That was kind of the 0:07:22.200 --> 0:07:25.120 message that Mike took away, and he says that maybe 0:07:25.160 --> 0:07:27.360 kind of means for the Bloomberg audience, don't invest on 0:07:27.400 --> 0:07:29.680 this FED decision fifteen seconds. 0:07:29.720 --> 0:07:30.520 Do you agree? 0:07:31.120 --> 0:07:32.880 Yeah, I don't think you can take much away from 0:07:32.920 --> 0:07:35.600 this FED decision in terms of actionable investment items. I 0:07:35.600 --> 0:07:37.320 think you need to watch the long end of the curve, 0:07:37.360 --> 0:07:38.920 and for that you need to watch things like the 0:07:38.920 --> 0:07:43.320 budget deficit and service sector inflation. So that's what I'm watching, 0:07:43.360 --> 0:07:45.240 and I think you go long deration here. 0:07:45.080 --> 0:07:48.640 All right, great duo Ross Mayfield Investment strategis ad baired 0:07:48.680 --> 0:07:51.640 Private Wealth Management, our own IRA Jersey chiefos interest rate 0:07:51.680 --> 0:07:53.040 Strategies at Bloomberg Intelligence. 0:07:53.240 --> 0:07:57.040 You are listening to the Bloomberg Business Weekdaily podcast. Catch 0:07:57.120 --> 0:07:59.920 US Live weekday afternoons from two to five pm E. 0:08:00.480 --> 0:08:03.520 Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 0:08:03.600 --> 0:08:06.840 Business app, or watch US Live on YouTube. 0:08:07.480 --> 0:08:10.080 The Israeli Ron conflict, the more than three year old 0:08:10.120 --> 0:08:12.800 war between Russia and Ukraine, the US LED tariff for 0:08:13.520 --> 0:08:16.960 changing geopolitical relationships, Carol, These are all things that can 0:08:17.000 --> 0:08:19.320 and do affect global investment flows. 0:08:19.400 --> 0:08:21.160 Yeah, it's kind of interesting at a moment in time 0:08:21.200 --> 0:08:24.040 where where they're rethinking whether or not the US is 0:08:24.960 --> 0:08:28.559 uninvestable and also questioning the dominance of the US dollar. 0:08:28.640 --> 0:08:31.480 We should point out as Alex Steel mentioned in our 0:08:31.520 --> 0:08:37.079 TV simulcast, foreign treasury holdings holding your record high in 0:08:37.120 --> 0:08:37.840 the month of April. 0:08:37.920 --> 0:08:39.520 So foreign investors are. 0:08:39.400 --> 0:08:41.600 They're not selling well foreign investors. 0:08:42.000 --> 0:08:44.320 It sounds like, at least not when it comes to treasuries, 0:08:44.360 --> 0:08:46.480 which is what we kind of keep watching so closely. 0:08:47.160 --> 0:08:49.480 All of this tie it all up, and especially when 0:08:49.520 --> 0:08:51.440 it comes to foreign direct investment. It is the world 0:08:51.440 --> 0:08:52.920 of our next guest, and it's so great to have 0:08:53.000 --> 0:08:56.680 back with us in studio, Michael Lohan, CEO of IDA Ireland. 0:08:56.679 --> 0:08:59.360 It's the Foreign Direct Investment Agency of the Irish government. 0:08:59.640 --> 0:09:00.959 Hello, Hello, how are you? 0:09:01.120 --> 0:09:03.040 I'm good carel good to be back in tint. 0:09:03.440 --> 0:09:06.800 There's a lot coming at everyone, and I'm not even 0:09:06.880 --> 0:09:11.120 quite sure to begin. Just give us a good Macro 0:09:11.280 --> 0:09:13.360 overview as you think of the things that the G 0:09:13.520 --> 0:09:17.600 seven leaders we're facing this week are facing this week. 0:09:18.720 --> 0:09:21.040 The war is the conflict certainly top of mind, and 0:09:21.440 --> 0:09:23.760 you know we're having this interview in real time and 0:09:23.840 --> 0:09:26.840 things are going to continue to develop. But how do 0:09:26.920 --> 0:09:29.840 you see the environment right now? Is it continuing to 0:09:29.880 --> 0:09:31.080 be an uncertain one? 0:09:31.440 --> 0:09:33.480 I think that's the word that you'd have to you'd 0:09:33.520 --> 0:09:35.960 have to use is uncertainty, and you know when we 0:09:36.040 --> 0:09:38.800 last met actually just that in March of this year. 0:09:39.120 --> 0:09:41.440 I think we've gone through a lot in those in 0:09:41.480 --> 0:09:44.800 those intervening weeks, to be honest, probably as much as 0:09:44.840 --> 0:09:47.760 I've seen in my career in foreign direct investment. A 0:09:47.800 --> 0:09:49.920 lot has happened in a very short space of time. 0:09:50.360 --> 0:09:52.920 And when you think about from from the tariffs in 0:09:53.000 --> 0:09:56.320 terms of what tariffs means, where they're going to be pulled, composed, 0:09:56.440 --> 0:09:58.880 at what level and what time frame, A lot of 0:09:58.960 --> 0:10:02.240 those questions still remain unanswered as we sit today, and 0:10:02.240 --> 0:10:05.520 I think from a European perspective, we are very clear 0:10:05.559 --> 0:10:08.200 that you know, bringing negotiation, trying to get to a 0:10:08.240 --> 0:10:12.679 point of aspos consensus around what this looks like. It's 0:10:12.720 --> 0:10:16.200 so critically important for investment flows and indeed for the 0:10:16.200 --> 0:10:18.880 economic prosperity of the world, you know, whether it's the 0:10:18.960 --> 0:10:21.160 US or whether it's the Europe, or indeed whether it's 0:10:21.200 --> 0:10:23.319 the Asia. So that's a that's a real area of 0:10:23.880 --> 0:10:26.920 focus from from a European perspective and indeed the Irish 0:10:26.920 --> 0:10:29.559 government perspective, and of course you're correct, this is all 0:10:29.600 --> 0:10:32.960 against the backdrop then of some other conflicts across the world, 0:10:33.040 --> 0:10:35.400 and you know, we see that increasing, so you know, 0:10:35.480 --> 0:10:37.920 it's we're very mindful of that in the context of 0:10:38.520 --> 0:10:41.520 trade flows and trade investments as well, because that brings 0:10:41.559 --> 0:10:44.640 another level of uncertainty into the equation. 0:10:44.840 --> 0:10:47.400 Yeah, it's been pretty much exactly three months since we 0:10:47.480 --> 0:10:50.280 last saw you. You were here in New York, right 0:10:50.320 --> 0:10:53.800 before you went to Washington with the Prime Minister to 0:10:54.000 --> 0:10:56.800 visit the White House. That'so you met with the President, 0:10:56.920 --> 0:10:59.040 You met with his team. How did the meeting go? 0:10:59.800 --> 0:11:02.040 So, so you're correct the last time was here. I 0:11:02.120 --> 0:11:02.440 left them. 0:11:02.520 --> 0:11:04.280 I went to d C with on t shock or 0:11:04.280 --> 0:11:06.959 our Prime minister. The medium went very well actually, and 0:11:07.640 --> 0:11:10.720 I think actually it was was. In reflecting on it, 0:11:10.760 --> 0:11:13.839 you'd say that, you know, the President was actually very 0:11:13.840 --> 0:11:16.560 gracious in terms of his engagement. Yes, there was fourth 0:11:16.640 --> 0:11:19.520 Right discussions and you know he talked about the challenges 0:11:19.559 --> 0:11:22.040 in terms of trade, trade deficits in particular. 0:11:22.840 --> 0:11:24.400 This was before all the teriffs were announced. 0:11:24.480 --> 0:11:25.120 Yeah, this is before. 0:11:25.120 --> 0:11:27.319 But remember this was all very you know, it was 0:11:27.360 --> 0:11:29.520 all very live and active at that point because you 0:11:29.559 --> 0:11:31.720 were this we were talking about this is the fifteenth, 0:11:31.720 --> 0:11:36.240 sixteenth of March, so it was all becoming very transparent 0:11:36.360 --> 0:11:38.640 or apparent as to what was what was going to 0:11:38.640 --> 0:11:40.680 come down the tracks. So I would say that that 0:11:40.679 --> 0:11:44.199 that that meeting and engagement very much reflect this the 0:11:44.280 --> 0:11:47.040 relationship which is one hundred years between Ireland and the US, 0:11:47.440 --> 0:11:49.880 and I think in any relationship there can be pints 0:11:49.920 --> 0:11:52.960 of let's call this discussion, and that was the discussion 0:11:53.000 --> 0:11:54.240 that we had, but it would think it was very 0:11:54.280 --> 0:11:56.120 respectful on both on both sides. 0:11:56.200 --> 0:11:58.920 Michael, what changes have you guys seen in investment flowers? 0:11:58.960 --> 0:12:00.480 What are you seeing from your bead point? 0:12:00.640 --> 0:12:03.160 Yeah, so what we're seeing today, actually, Carol, it's interesting. 0:12:03.920 --> 0:12:06.000 So I can sit here today and actually in two 0:12:06.000 --> 0:12:09.200 weeks time I'll be sharing with her Minister Peter Burke 0:12:09.240 --> 0:12:11.560 are results for the first half of the year, and 0:12:11.679 --> 0:12:14.640 when I can't disclose them to you on air, what 0:12:14.760 --> 0:12:17.559 I could, yeah, but I won't. But what I can 0:12:17.640 --> 0:12:20.480 say is this is that we continue to see investment flows. 0:12:20.480 --> 0:12:23.079 In fact, it is a power with last year in 0:12:23.160 --> 0:12:25.360 terms of the first half of last year, which is 0:12:25.480 --> 0:12:29.120 maybe somewhat maybe surprising giving the level of uncertainty that 0:12:29.160 --> 0:12:31.800 you see across the globe. But the reasons where we 0:12:31.880 --> 0:12:33.760 see that is and we're seeing across a number of 0:12:33.760 --> 0:12:37.160 different areas. We're seeing reinvestment in research and innovation continuing 0:12:37.160 --> 0:12:40.439 and companies looking to double down on their investments in 0:12:40.480 --> 0:12:43.760 Ireland in innovation. We're also seeing a lot of investment 0:12:43.840 --> 0:12:46.680 as well in terms of new entrance into the Irish economy, 0:12:46.720 --> 0:12:48.960 which is really important. And that's because they're looking for 0:12:49.280 --> 0:12:53.840 global marketplace, stable locations where they who's just trusted and proven, 0:12:53.960 --> 0:12:56.040 I believe, and that's what they're seeing in Ireland. In 0:12:56.120 --> 0:12:57.000 terms of the future world. 0:12:57.040 --> 0:12:59.120 I know you can't reveal all, but I am curious 0:12:59.160 --> 0:13:01.880 so on that where there's new investments coming in. Are 0:13:01.880 --> 0:13:06.360 there conversations you're having with entities, global companies, US companies 0:13:06.400 --> 0:13:09.800 who say we want to do more stuff with you 0:13:09.840 --> 0:13:12.760 guys because we don't necessarily want to be in the 0:13:12.840 --> 0:13:14.880 US or other like give me an idea if there's 0:13:14.920 --> 0:13:19.000 anything that's a repercussion or you know, the result of 0:13:19.040 --> 0:13:20.679 an action by the White House. 0:13:20.760 --> 0:13:24.360 Yeah, So I don't think it's it's a scenario of 0:13:24.440 --> 0:13:26.000 we don't want to do it in location A, so 0:13:26.000 --> 0:13:28.600 we're doing location B. I actually think companies are looking 0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:29.920 to actually how can. 0:13:29.800 --> 0:13:30.600 We grow our business? 0:13:30.920 --> 0:13:33.440 Where can we grow that from what markets do we 0:13:33.480 --> 0:13:37.240 want to serve and where can we get the skills. 0:13:36.880 --> 0:13:38.960 Or are the policies that support that. 0:13:38.960 --> 0:13:41.280 That's really what we're seeing and what we do in 0:13:41.320 --> 0:13:43.440 Ireland is that, you know, we make sure we bring 0:13:43.480 --> 0:13:46.520 is stability and certainty to those areas of policy in 0:13:46.600 --> 0:13:49.720 terms of talent and talent availability, not just Irish talent, 0:13:49.760 --> 0:13:52.640 but international talent. These are the pieces that are setting 0:13:53.360 --> 0:13:56.200 I believe investors apart when they're looking at locations around 0:13:56.200 --> 0:13:59.360 the globe, because I said previously at the very core 0:13:59.480 --> 0:14:02.640 of the IE and of multinational companies, they look to 0:14:02.679 --> 0:14:06.480 international markets. They need international markets, they need international supply chains, 0:14:06.679 --> 0:14:09.920 they need international talent. That's what they need in order 0:14:09.960 --> 0:14:12.840 to be successful. And that success isn't just success in 0:14:12.880 --> 0:14:15.120 the country they're located in, It actually comes back to 0:14:15.160 --> 0:14:16.240 their entire supply chain. 0:14:16.320 --> 0:14:18.040 We're speaking to you on today where we heard from 0:14:18.040 --> 0:14:19.680 the FED chair and there are a lot of questions 0:14:19.720 --> 0:14:21.720 about what the labor market looked like. The takeaway that 0:14:21.760 --> 0:14:23.720 I got from him, Carol, and I think you'd agree 0:14:23.720 --> 0:14:25.840 with this is that he really likes where the labor 0:14:25.840 --> 0:14:29.160 market is right now. And then despite what anecdotes people 0:14:29.160 --> 0:14:31.000 hear and what people are saying, there are not cracks 0:14:31.440 --> 0:14:34.560 starting to appear. Things are looking pretty strong. Explain to 0:14:34.640 --> 0:14:37.960 us the labor market in Ireland right now in the 0:14:37.960 --> 0:14:42.800 context of these companies, especially tech companies battling it out 0:14:42.960 --> 0:14:44.840 for top tech talent for AI. 0:14:45.240 --> 0:14:47.720 Yeah, and I think you're just to use it the 0:14:47.760 --> 0:14:50.320 comment in terms of the Fed's comments this afternoon of 0:14:50.360 --> 0:14:54.080 the labor market, actually, Irish labor market is somewhat mirrors. 0:14:54.080 --> 0:14:57.120 I think what the FED has has mentioned today. It's 0:14:57.280 --> 0:14:59.840 robust where like you know, we're almost at full employment. 0:15:00.080 --> 0:15:02.400 So there is actually I think for economies that are 0:15:02.440 --> 0:15:06.400 performing and have a strong underlying fundamentals that is I 0:15:06.400 --> 0:15:09.560 think that's mirrored across many economies across the globe. And 0:15:09.600 --> 0:15:11.760 the key is in this context is you're correct, there 0:15:11.800 --> 0:15:17.359 is like talent availability and is probably this key differentiator 0:15:17.400 --> 0:15:20.200 for success for whatever business you're in or whatever sector 0:15:20.240 --> 0:15:22.920 you're in. And that's why I believe that multinational companies 0:15:23.040 --> 0:15:24.840 look they see talent as global. 0:15:24.960 --> 0:15:27.280 They don't see it as within a geography or within 0:15:27.520 --> 0:15:28.080 a region. 0:15:28.320 --> 0:15:30.440 They see it as global. And I think that's what 0:15:30.520 --> 0:15:33.000 we have to continue and we're very we're very as 0:15:33.000 --> 0:15:36.920 suppose attuned to the fact that not howlone do we 0:15:36.960 --> 0:15:38.520 have to generate our own talent, but we have to 0:15:38.520 --> 0:15:40.640 be able to track the best talent to Ireland, and 0:15:40.680 --> 0:15:43.440 we have to create the conditions in which they can prosper, 0:15:43.600 --> 0:15:45.960 which they can live, and which they can and enjoy 0:15:46.000 --> 0:15:46.600 life as well. 0:15:46.680 --> 0:15:46.840 Well. 0:15:46.880 --> 0:15:48.720 I'm also curious because there is a lot of pressure 0:15:48.760 --> 0:15:52.600 from this administration, the President specifically for US based companies, 0:15:52.680 --> 0:15:56.280 US based multinationals to do more in the United States. 0:15:56.320 --> 0:15:58.560 Having said that, I think about a company like Microsoft, 0:15:58.640 --> 0:16:02.320 who has been in Ireland in for four decades or so, correct, 0:16:02.640 --> 0:16:06.200 I'm just curious, you know, is any of that relationship 0:16:06.240 --> 0:16:10.000 that you folks have, and especially the investments that Microsoft 0:16:10.040 --> 0:16:12.160 has made and maybe continue to do, has any of 0:16:12.200 --> 0:16:12.920 that changed? 0:16:13.880 --> 0:16:16.080 To be honest, it hasn't. And if you think about 0:16:16.120 --> 0:16:19.240 your correct, Microsoft celebrated it's fiftieth birthday actually since we 0:16:19.320 --> 0:16:22.320 last spoke, and forty of those fifty years have been 0:16:22.320 --> 0:16:26.280 in Ireland. And when when when Actually, when we celebrated 0:16:26.320 --> 0:16:30.600 Microsoft's fortieth birthday in Ireland, they spoke about how important 0:16:30.720 --> 0:16:34.240 Ireland was to the Microsoft's success, not just Microsoft Ireland, 0:16:34.280 --> 0:16:37.520 but Microsoft the corporation because that's what it really is 0:16:37.520 --> 0:16:40.040 is embedded. And when we look at companies like Microsoft 0:16:40.080 --> 0:16:42.880 and the many more companies that we have in Ireland, 0:16:43.040 --> 0:16:46.120 there are there are multi decade investments, there are you know, 0:16:46.200 --> 0:16:49.760 trusted long term partnerships with IDA and with the Irish, 0:16:49.960 --> 0:16:52.400 with the Irish government, and that's what really brings that 0:16:52.440 --> 0:16:54.600 success back. And what we have to be conscious of 0:16:54.640 --> 0:16:56.360 as well is that we need to make sure that 0:16:56.840 --> 0:17:00.000 we actually have we're meeting the future needs of industry 0:17:00.040 --> 0:17:02.560 as well. So that means people, it means infrastructure, and 0:17:02.600 --> 0:17:05.280 it means policy, and that's very much what we're focused on, 0:17:05.280 --> 0:17:06.960 what Irish government or folks. 0:17:07.000 --> 0:17:09.440 We'll go back to my question about AI specifically. Carol 0:17:09.480 --> 0:17:11.160 mentioned there were some layoffs at Microsoft. 0:17:11.160 --> 0:17:11.400 Today. 0:17:11.800 --> 0:17:13.560 There are hundreds of thousands of people who work at 0:17:13.600 --> 0:17:14.960 Microsoft and we know thousands. 0:17:15.000 --> 0:17:17.720 Is that the latest report, Carol, Yeah, some more job 0:17:17.760 --> 0:17:20.639 cuts in salespeople, I think they were saying. 0:17:20.480 --> 0:17:23.000 And it's about making sure that you have the workforce 0:17:23.240 --> 0:17:25.560 that these tech companies need. J Powell was asked the 0:17:25.600 --> 0:17:27.960 same question, what is going to be effect of AI 0:17:28.320 --> 0:17:31.520 on the workforce? Yes, what is it in your view 0:17:31.520 --> 0:17:34.560 and how do you make sure that it doesn't decimate 0:17:34.600 --> 0:17:39.159 a workforce, like the CEO of Anthropic dom Dario Amidae 0:17:39.200 --> 0:17:39.920 said recently. 0:17:40.680 --> 0:17:41.480 So I think you're correct. 0:17:41.600 --> 0:17:43.480 We need to be conscious of the fact that AI 0:17:43.640 --> 0:17:45.560 is going to be a technology and is a technology 0:17:45.600 --> 0:17:47.840 that's going to revolutionize. In fact, we see it all 0:17:47.880 --> 0:17:49.560 in our day to day lives and their day to 0:17:49.600 --> 0:17:52.359 day work. What we're looking at from an idea perspective 0:17:52.640 --> 0:17:55.240 is we're trying. We have very much looked at where 0:17:55.320 --> 0:17:57.640 is the opportunity for AI to bring efficiency and bring 0:17:57.720 --> 0:17:58.800 productivity gains. 0:17:59.040 --> 0:18:00.640 But secondly, then how do we make. 0:18:00.560 --> 0:18:03.080 Sure that where there are risks, we are upskilling and 0:18:03.119 --> 0:18:06.960