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Speaker 1: Well, China's Communist Party Congress next month, we'll set the

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Speaker 1: stage for a possible overhaul of the country's top economic roles.

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Speaker 1: Joining us to discuss this, Tom Hancock Bloomberg, China Economy Reporter.

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Speaker 1: So the biggest reshuffle in potentially a decade, and this

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Speaker 1: comes amid these worsening growth risks in China and as

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Speaker 1: we're continuing to see COVID zero play with the lockdown

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Speaker 1: of chain do. Tom. Yeah, So we've got the Communist

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Speaker 1: Party Congress date now fixed for the middle of October,

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Speaker 1: and we're expected to see see Jimping stay on as

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Speaker 1: Communist Party chief for another five years, but below him,

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Speaker 1: basically the entire economic team is going to start a

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Speaker 1: shift that begins with the Congress when people's role in

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Speaker 1: the Communist Party changes, and ends next year early next

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Speaker 1: year the National People's Congress, when people's government roles are

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Speaker 1: rubber stamped by that congress. Um. So we've really got

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Speaker 1: a range of people stepping down according to the usual

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Speaker 1: retirement ages. The too key to watch for our Leoch

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Speaker 1: who has been in Sedon Ping's right hand man and

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Speaker 1: economies are and also Leka Chiang, who has been the

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Speaker 1: Premier obviously kind of a weakened premier, but still influential

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Speaker 1: in economic policy. No surprise. Experts are saying the replacements

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Speaker 1: need experience and loyalty to SHE. But I guess how

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Speaker 1: are they going to deal with some of these huge

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Speaker 1: problems you're seeing in the economy, not only the COVID downturn,

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Speaker 1: the property market downturn, and also youth unemployment at this record. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: they will be having a huge amount of difficult issues

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Speaker 1: on their plate as they take on these roles. We

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Speaker 1: should also mentioned that it's likely egan Um, who is

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Speaker 1: the Central Bank governor, will also be gone by by March,

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Speaker 1: and from what we seeing, his replacements and the other

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Speaker 1: replacements who are people are talking about are all the

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Speaker 1: people who are very experienced economic policymakers. They've been working

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Speaker 1: in very senior positions for a long time, so I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't expect any big policy shifts from them straight away.

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Speaker 1: But there are people who have worked closely with SEE

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Speaker 1: for decades, and there's there are some signs that loyalty

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Speaker 1: to SEE is becoming a bit more important. And academic qualifications,

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Speaker 1: because we've really had a time where academics, including the

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Speaker 1: Gang have been running economic policy, and so we could

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Speaker 1: see maybe more political influence. And I think that you know,

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Speaker 1: what Siege and ping Um usually does is still delegate

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Speaker 1: a lot of the economic policy implementation and details to

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Speaker 1: these officials, So they're going to play an important role

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Speaker 1: as well. Tommy, your crystal wall probably as good as mine.

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Speaker 1: But there is a lot of speculation that perhaps after

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Speaker 1: this congress we could see an easing of some of

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Speaker 1: these COVID zero curbs. Is at what you're kind of

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Speaker 1: hearing from people in the No, Yeah, I mean the

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Speaker 1: latest prediction is from Nomura, you know, saying that they

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Speaker 1: think it will the policy will continue, you know, past

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Speaker 1: the National People's Congress next year. Um, you know, it's

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Speaker 1: really anyone's guess. But you know, I still believe that

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Speaker 1: the policy won't last forever. China is looking for some

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Speaker 1: kind of transition, but it doesn't it doesn't seem to

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Speaker 1: be on the cards in the in the near term. Um,

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Speaker 1: you know, there will be something to maybe watch for

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Speaker 1: in the second half of next year and maybe there'll

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Speaker 1: be some sort of um, you know, gradual easy of

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Speaker 1: how lockdowns are done. So we need to watch for

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Speaker 1: that closely, all right, tom Thanks as always Tom Hancock,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg China Economy Reporter, with US in Hong Kong