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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast. It is good without

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Speaker 1: further ado.

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Speaker 2: That's what the game's all about.

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Speaker 1: All of a sudden, you feel like you can't miss.

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Speaker 3: If you try that again.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, NBA edition for

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Speaker 1: a Friday. I hope everyone's March Madness is getting off

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Speaker 1: to a great start and your bracket is pristine. For

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Speaker 1: all of your coverage of March Madness, you want to

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Speaker 1: check out the Action Network and the Action Network App,

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Speaker 1: our award winning app that brings you up to the

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Speaker 1: NANO second scores, stats and updates along with our brilliant

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Speaker 1: or sometimes pretty good analysis what you can find in

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Speaker 1: the app. For today's show, we are going to talk

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Speaker 1: about what what would we put the odds to make

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Speaker 1: the Conference Finals at, because it's the one odds set

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Speaker 1: that we wish more than anything we could find at

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Speaker 1: a book for all other odds. Today we will be

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Speaker 1: using MGM, the official odds provider for the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 1: Make sure that you're listening all throughout the week on

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Speaker 1: the podcast. Check out all the great shows. Obviously, reacting

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Speaker 1: to NFL free agency, big deal there, my chiefs picked

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Speaker 1: up some offensive line man and obviously you want to

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Speaker 1: check out the big Megapods with Stuckey and the crew

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Speaker 1: for college basketball. I've been listening to them non stop,

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Speaker 1: which is why that I basically believe Ohio is the

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Speaker 1: lockiest lock of all time versus Virginia. Excited for Virginia

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Speaker 1: to win that game in studying fashion. All right, for today,

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Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson Raheem Palmer with me as always, Let's get

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Speaker 1: to the Marquee Boys, the Marquis.

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Speaker 4: Look here the shatter for the crowd.

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Speaker 1: Our marque for this week. I have said for quite

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Speaker 1: a while that the one set of odds that is

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Speaker 1: missing because we only have conference odds, and the problem

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Speaker 1: with the NBA is it's very stacked at the top,

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Speaker 1: and we typically know who the best team and at

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Speaker 1: least one conference is Like typically every year we can

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Speaker 1: pencil in somebody to come out of one of the conferences.

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Speaker 1: The other one is a lot more open this year,

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Speaker 1: the East, I think we can make an argument for

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Speaker 1: any of the top three teams, possibly top four to

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Speaker 1: make it out. And then in the Western Conference, though

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Speaker 1: I think that everyone is kind of penciled in the Lakers,

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Speaker 1: even though like there's a very good argument which I've

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Speaker 1: made before about the Clippers. Why can't we make odds

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Speaker 1: to make the conference finals the series? Why can't we

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Speaker 1: get odds to reach the conference finals? Because if you

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Speaker 1: get to the conference finals, guess what, You're in the

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Speaker 1: final four for the NBA. We make a big deal

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Speaker 1: about it for the NCAA, but not for the NBA

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Speaker 1: and for the NBA, and that drives me crazy. So

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Speaker 1: Brandon had the great idea, like, let's actually do this.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about it. Let's break down what our odds

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Speaker 1: would be for the teams to reach the conference finals.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna be the top six teams in each conference. Rahiem,

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Speaker 1: Let's start with you. Let's start with the most obvious

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Speaker 1: one on the board. Let's get to the Los Angeles Lakers.

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Speaker 1: Where do you have this number?

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Speaker 3: I'm putting it at minus three hundred. Who I mean,

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Speaker 3: I mean, I think you. I mean you got to look.

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Speaker 4: At like this.

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Speaker 3: To win the finals, they're plus two eighty to win

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Speaker 3: the conference. They're plus one, I mean one thirty, you know,

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Speaker 3: which gives them a forty three percent chance and win

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Speaker 3: in the finals. So I don't want to be too

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Speaker 3: conservative with this. I mean, you got to think the

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Speaker 3: Lakers are always going to get action, and I don't

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Speaker 3: want that liability. Now, I don't think they probably don't.

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Speaker 3: I think it's a little high, you know, the minus

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Speaker 3: three hundred to Mills that they have a seventy five

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Speaker 3: percent chance of making the conference finals. I don't know

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Speaker 3: if it's that out, like I mean, I initially wanted to,

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Speaker 3: you know, put this at minus two hundred, but I

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Speaker 3: think when you have the Lakers, you're always gonna get

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Speaker 3: action on Lebrun and I don't need that liability. You know,

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Speaker 3: for me, they're gonna get Anthony Davis back. You know,

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Speaker 3: they're throwing a pretty good run right now without Anthony Davis,

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Speaker 3: now that they have Struger back after the All Star break.

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Speaker 3: I just I can't set anything lower than that, like honestly,

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Speaker 3: because otherwise I'm gonna get killed. Now in the first round,

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Speaker 3: they're in a three seed. Right now, they're going to

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Speaker 3: face Portland. I'm not really worried about their first round matches.

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Speaker 3: I think that's a gimme whoever they play in the

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Speaker 3: second round, whether that be I mean, right now, it's

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Speaker 3: looking like they play the Suns in the second round,

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Speaker 3: and I'm not worried about that.

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Speaker 4: Either. So I just think I have to set it really.

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Speaker 3: High, and I don't know if I've said it high

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Speaker 3: enough to be honest.

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Speaker 1: Well, all right, and you haven't run the model on this.

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Speaker 1: If I asked you what their number to not make,

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Speaker 1: it would be, well would be can you can you

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Speaker 1: give me any thick on that? And I'll go to Brandon.

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Speaker 1: I'll come back for you, Brandon. Okay, what is your

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Speaker 1: number for the Lakers?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so I had I had the same conundrum. I

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Speaker 2: did the math, I came up with my number, and

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Speaker 2: then I thought, yeah, there's absolutely no way I'm offering

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Speaker 2: this number if I'm a book, because I would get slaughtered.

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Speaker 2: It's Lebron. It's one hundred percent. Lebron's going to get there.

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Speaker 2: He always gets there. But obviously you can't make it

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Speaker 2: one hundred percent. So I have the Lakers. I'm a

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Speaker 2: little bit more tenuous than Raheem. I'm I'm factoring in

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Speaker 2: the Anthony Davis injury thing. I'm assuming he's back. But

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Speaker 2: those sort of things can linger, and so at least

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Speaker 2: there's at least a chance that this version of the

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Speaker 2: Lakers sticks around. And that version of the Lakers wasn't

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Speaker 2: very good hasn't been very good, So I have them

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Speaker 2: about eighty percent to make it out of the first round,

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Speaker 2: seventy percent the second round. So my true number would

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Speaker 2: put them about minus one twenty five, which just like,

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Speaker 2: there's no way if I'm a book, there's no way

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Speaker 2: I'm putting that mius one twenty five. Money would just

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Speaker 2: come landsliding me in on Lakers. So if I was

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Speaker 2: setting the line, I put it to minus two hundred.

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Speaker 2: I still think everyone's going to come in on the

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Speaker 2: Lakers on it. But I had it at minus one

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Speaker 2: twenty five, And then I checked bet MGM and saw

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Speaker 2: that just making the finals was plus one thirty, and

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Speaker 2: obviously you can make the lines that close together, so

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Speaker 2: I think, I mean, really it's the Lakers. There's the

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Speaker 2: books are pricing it in. There's not value here. If

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Speaker 2: I'm betting, I wouldn't bet the Lakers here because if

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Speaker 2: I bet them to win the second round, i'd bet

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Speaker 2: them to make the finals too, and maybe to win

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Speaker 2: the whole thing. So it's not the place that I

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Speaker 2: don't want to bet, but i'd put it at minus

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Speaker 2: one twenty five personally minus two hundred or more.

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Speaker 1: From the book, Okay, So I mine was minus one

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Speaker 1: eighty five. That's where I came in initially. I am going

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Speaker 1: to go ahead and be with Brandon, and I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: bump with minus two hundred because you are going to

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Speaker 1: get absolutely slaughtered if you don't put this two to one.

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Speaker 1: You get it, You got to make it two to one.

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Speaker 1: Pay But like, look, mins one eighty five is sixty

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Speaker 1: five percent. My counter argument to Raheem is this is

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Speaker 1: that there is a a very good chance that instead

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Speaker 1: of it being the Suns, that it winds up being

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Speaker 1: the Clippers in the second round, and if the Lakers

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Speaker 1: have to end, it might be the Clippers in Like

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Speaker 1: I just get it. But like there's also not a

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Speaker 1: there's a not insignificant chance that it winds up being

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Speaker 1: like one of it's Lakers, Clippers in the four or five,

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Speaker 1: which is not preposterous given how Denver's played over the

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Speaker 1: last month and a half of the season. If the

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Speaker 1: Lakers have to go through the Clippers, I think that,

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Speaker 1: like you have to factor that into the number. Like

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Speaker 1: there is at least, at least in my opinion, a

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Speaker 1: thirty percent chance that the Clippers beat the Lakers, Like

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Speaker 1: at least thirty percent chance.

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Speaker 3: I think I have I have to I have the

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Speaker 3: Clippers Lakers at pretty much to pick them.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: So so it's just I mean, I agree with that,

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Speaker 3: but I just I think the Laker money just overwhelmed

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Speaker 3: The Laker and Lebron money together overwhelms everything.

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Speaker 1: But but you also goeta, you also gotta think about

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Speaker 1: this though. You're you're gonna be leveraged on the Lakers anyway,

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Speaker 1: you know that, Like that's you know that, Like they're

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Speaker 1: already the biggest number at the title for the title there.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna be the biggest number series by series. They're

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Speaker 1: gonna be the biggest number game by game. Like they

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Speaker 1: are the most public team in the NBA. They are

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Speaker 1: the Cowboys. Are the Cowboys the biggest public team in football.

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Speaker 1: I don't know these things. Maybe not now, maybe Patriots,

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs, Chiefs, the Chiefs, my Chiefs. Right, So yeah,

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Speaker 1: they're gonna be except you know, the Chief's best player

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Speaker 1: actually is the best of all time. So like I think,

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Speaker 1: if we look at me, I'm in a Homer zone today.

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Speaker 1: So from that perspective, I think if we look at

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Speaker 1: the Clippers and the threat that they present, plus you do.

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Speaker 1: You do have to factor in here into some of

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Speaker 1: the analysis, the odds that Davis does not come back

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Speaker 1: one hundred percent or that he continues that, Like there

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Speaker 1: is a lot like even though there's not a whole

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Speaker 1: lot of like, oh no, he's a serious risk he

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Speaker 1: might not come back.

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Speaker 4: That's not been said.

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Speaker 1: I think the risk of re injury is pretty significant

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Speaker 1: given them. It's it's notably not the achilles, it's the

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Speaker 1: supporting muscles around the achilles. But that of course puts

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Speaker 1: more pressure on the achilles to compensate. And so like,

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Speaker 1: if you have this this extra concern, like if they

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Speaker 1: I'll ask you this, if they lose Davis, do you

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Speaker 1: think they can make the like? Uh not? Do you

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Speaker 1: think they can? Can You give me a number right

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Speaker 1: now that you would put it if Davis was gonna

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Speaker 1: be out for the playoffs. So then they make the conference.

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Speaker 3: Finals, I'm going in the I think I'm going in

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Speaker 3: the close to even money to once. Yeah, I'm cling.

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Speaker 1: You can't.

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Speaker 4: You can't.

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Speaker 1: But that's what's crazy. If eighties out, you still can't

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Speaker 1: put them at a plus number. Yeah, it's significant because

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Speaker 1: you will get absolutely annihilated.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I still would put them. I still

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Speaker 3: would put them at like minus twenty five, you know,

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Speaker 3: Like I'm just I'm not being conservative with the Lakers.

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Speaker 3: Like I'm totally taking a position and saying, look, you

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Speaker 3: guys bet any other team but the Lakers.

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Speaker 1: Right, So let's go to the Clippers. Let's start with Brandon,

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Speaker 1: what's your number on the Clippers to make the conference finals.

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Speaker 2: So I surprise myself by this, but the Clippers are

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Speaker 2: not my second favorite to make the conference finals in

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Speaker 2: the last year. So here's the reason. It's the same

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Speaker 2: sort of logic that you're just saying on the Lakers.

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Speaker 2: I think the Jazz are pretty overwhelming favorites to be

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Speaker 2: the one seed, and the one seed is a far

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Speaker 2: better position in the West, especially because I think that

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Speaker 2: there's a pretty pretty solid chance that we do get

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Speaker 2: Lakers Clippers as the two three. Maybe not maybe once

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Speaker 2: it gets close, one of them is gonna tank and

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Speaker 2: get out to the other half. But getting the one

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Speaker 2: seed is huge because I also don't really I don't

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Speaker 2: really fear any of the eight seeds that are coming,

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Speaker 2: but that's not the Clippers. I don't think the Clippers

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Speaker 2: are the one seed. So the Clippers end up two,

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Speaker 2: three four somewhere in there, they actually have to face

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Speaker 2: a real opponent in the first round, where as opposed

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Speaker 2: to whatever the eight seed is, there's nobody in the

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Speaker 2: eight that I fear because remember, to get the eight seed,

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Speaker 2: you have to lose the first game and then win

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Speaker 2: the second, or you have to be the nine or

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Speaker 2: ten to start with to get there. So I just

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Speaker 2: I don't know who is that team in the West

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Speaker 2: that does one of those two things and then actually

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Speaker 2: scares me in the playoffs. I don't know whereas if

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Speaker 2: you're the Clippers and it's two, three four, now you

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Speaker 2: have to play the Nuggets. You might have to play

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Speaker 2: the Blazers, you may have to play, you know, the Mavericks.

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Speaker 2: Those teams aren't all the same. I'm not saying that

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Speaker 2: they are, but that's a real matchup. And with the Clippers,

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Speaker 2: it's so much on just did their shots fall, And

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Speaker 2: I think that the variance is higher there. The ceiling

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Speaker 2: is high on this team, but the variance of losing

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Speaker 2: any given round I think is also higher for them.

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Speaker 2: So for me, I have the Clippers at about sixty

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Speaker 2: five percent out of the first round, and then sixty

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Speaker 2: percent Again after that, I think I think they're odds

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Speaker 2: stay pretty high each round going forward, but I think

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Speaker 2: that they're not so high any given round just because

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Speaker 2: of the nature of the team. So I had the

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Speaker 2: Clippers at plus one sixty, and I would again, I'd

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Speaker 2: shift that because it's LA and people are going to

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Speaker 2: bet it. But for me personally, I have them at

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Speaker 2: plus one sixty to make it to the conference finals.

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Speaker 1: They don't get a lot of they don't get a

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Speaker 1: lot of public action. That's what's really crazy, is like,

249
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Speaker 1: it's not an LA thing. It's just a Lakers thing.

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Speaker 1: That's what. Yeah, wild, like it's and it's interesting to

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Speaker 1: me that that that represents itself. We see that consistently

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Speaker 1: when we talk to the Bucks and we ask them

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Speaker 1: about their splits and their handle for the title. Is

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Speaker 1: like we see that trend consistently over and over again.

255
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Speaker 1: It's interesting to me that the betting takes on that

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Speaker 1: persona as well. Like we all know that you know,

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Speaker 1: l A fans are like they're the little brother. They're

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Speaker 1: never gonna be as good. You know, the Lakers are cool,

259
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Speaker 1: the Clippers are not. But it's interesting to me that

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Speaker 1: like even the and we know, like a lot of

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Speaker 1: sharp betters, especially last year, loved the Clippers. It's interesting

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Speaker 1: to me the reaction from last year this year, where

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Speaker 1: a lot of the sharp betters were so keyed in

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Speaker 1: on the Clippers, and then that like that, that loss

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Speaker 1: of the Nuggets shook them and.

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Speaker 4: Everybody, everybody except for me.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, wait, what do you mean I didn't like the

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Speaker 1: Clippers last year? It's right? I mean, did you did

269
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Speaker 1: you bet the Nuggets to beat them?

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Speaker 4: I mean I played them by game by game, but

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Speaker 4: I just.

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Speaker 1: Ye, see, I I I bet them the Nuggets will

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Speaker 1: win the series. So, like I'm on radio, so maybe

274
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Speaker 1: so so step off of the podium, victory lap over

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Speaker 1: here for a victory lap? All right, Rahim, what's your

276
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Speaker 1: number on the Clippers.

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Speaker 2: I'm with Brandon on this.

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Speaker 3: I mean I'm in I'm a little bit lower than them.

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Speaker 3: I'm minus one fifty. I think forty percent is you

280
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Speaker 3: know just about right. I mean they're fifteen percent to

281
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Speaker 3: win the finals, twenty six percent to win the conference

282
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Speaker 3: finals at plus two seventy five.

283
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Speaker 4: So I have it at one plus one fifty.

284
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Speaker 3: I think, to me, I think they have the potential

285
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Speaker 3: to be the second best team in the West. But

286
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Speaker 3: like Brandon said, there's a lot of variants. It's a

287
00:14:23,760 --> 00:14:27,400
Speaker 3: matter of their shots falling. To me, I think I

288
00:14:27,400 --> 00:14:30,760
Speaker 3: would have them favorite over any other team other than

289
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Speaker 3: the Lakers. So I think they're my second favorite. But

290
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Speaker 3: it's just you know, they could play the Lakers in

291
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Speaker 3: the second round, or they could play I mean, right

292
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Speaker 3: now they're slated to play the Nuggets, who it's not

293
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Speaker 3: really a great matchup in the sense that they got

294
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Speaker 3: to deal with Jokic, so they don't really have that

295
00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:49,920
Speaker 3: inside guy.

296
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Speaker 1: So so I'm on I like Clippers at plus one hundred.

297
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Speaker 1: I like them even money. And the reason I like

298
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Speaker 1: them on even money, let's look at it from like

299
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Speaker 1: this perspective. Yes, they may have to face the Lakers,

300
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Speaker 1: but they are the one team that I think can

301
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Speaker 1: beat them. I don't think Denver can beat him. I

302
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Speaker 1: don't think Utah can beat him. I don't think this.

303
00:15:15,760 --> 00:15:17,680
Speaker 1: I think the Suns will make it interesting if they

304
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Speaker 1: face the Lakers. But the only thing that I think

305
00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:25,040
Speaker 1: really can beat the Lakers in the West is the Clippers.

306
00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:27,000
Speaker 1: They match up well with them. They have the perimeter

307
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Speaker 1: guys to throw at Lebron. They're gonna make that defense work.

308
00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:31,880
Speaker 1: Part of it is you need something to break that

309
00:15:31,960 --> 00:15:34,280
Speaker 1: Lakers defense and having guys that can just rise up

310
00:15:34,280 --> 00:15:37,040
Speaker 1: and hit is really good. They have physical guys to

311
00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:39,760
Speaker 1: bother ad. They've got serge of baka to be able

312
00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:41,200
Speaker 1: to throw on them. You can throw a number of

313
00:15:41,280 --> 00:15:43,760
Speaker 1: different looks at them. You're not worried really about Marcus Sool.

314
00:15:43,960 --> 00:15:47,040
Speaker 1: They're definitely not worried about Montress Harrell. The bench units

315
00:15:47,040 --> 00:15:49,600
Speaker 1: are pretty comparable and just in terms of the Lakers,

316
00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:55,080
Speaker 1: like pluckiness with Calex Caruso versus the Clippers, suaveness with

317
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Speaker 1: Lou Williams. I like that matchup pretty well. What's interesting

318
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Speaker 1: is like I'm much more concerned about all the other

319
00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:02,880
Speaker 1: matchups with the Clippers. If they face the Nuggets, I'm

320
00:16:02,880 --> 00:16:05,960
Speaker 1: gonna be worried about them. Again, if they face the Suns,

321
00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:09,520
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be worried about them. Uh Utah. I like

322
00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:12,000
Speaker 1: that matchup pretty well for the Clippers though. So if

323
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Speaker 1: the Clippers side right, so I Slippers slide to four,

324
00:16:16,680 --> 00:16:19,400
Speaker 1: you know, like God, you're gonna have to peel us

325
00:16:19,440 --> 00:16:22,160
Speaker 1: off of the Clippers in that series with a rake,

326
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Speaker 1: We're gonna everyone's gonna be on the Clippers in that

327
00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:28,440
Speaker 1: series and then and so that's part of the whole

328
00:16:28,480 --> 00:16:30,560
Speaker 1: thing too. It's one reason why I'm not as high

329
00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:35,320
Speaker 1: on Utah is like I think there's I just know

330
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Speaker 1: how much we're gonna betting whoever winds up in the

331
00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:39,800
Speaker 1: four or whoever comes out of the four or five matchup.

332
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Speaker 1: I'm with you that I'm not worried about it. Like,

333
00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:45,680
Speaker 1: I don't think any of the top four teams have

334
00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:48,920
Speaker 1: to worry about a first round upset outside of maybe Phoenix,

335
00:16:49,200 --> 00:16:51,640
Speaker 1: Like we haven't seen them in a playoff environment. So

336
00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:56,720
Speaker 1: if they wind up getting the three seed and it's

337
00:16:57,120 --> 00:17:03,800
Speaker 1: Dame or Luca, or if the Nuggets slipped or like

338
00:17:03,840 --> 00:17:06,600
Speaker 1: there's a bunch of teams that like that might get

339
00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:09,720
Speaker 1: a little dicey, But I'm not. We're being really about

340
00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:12,239
Speaker 1: the first round, but the second round and on we

341
00:17:12,280 --> 00:17:14,120
Speaker 1: really have about the second round. Here we're talking about

342
00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:17,240
Speaker 1: making the conference finals. I could see the Clippers following

343
00:17:17,240 --> 00:17:20,840
Speaker 1: the four, winning the four to five, beating the Jazz,

344
00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:23,040
Speaker 1: making the conference finals. I could see them getting the three,

345
00:17:23,160 --> 00:17:25,879
Speaker 1: beating the Lakers and making the conference finals. As the

346
00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:30,000
Speaker 1: internet melts down, Like I had this thought immediately after

347
00:17:30,080 --> 00:17:33,800
Speaker 1: the Clippers lost last year? How funny would it be

348
00:17:33,800 --> 00:17:36,159
Speaker 1: because everyone thought it was hilarious that the Clippers were like,

349
00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:38,080
Speaker 1: now we can be we could be the number one

350
00:17:38,080 --> 00:17:40,800
Speaker 1: team in LA and they couldn't even make the conference finals.

351
00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:43,119
Speaker 1: How funny would be if the year after that embarrassing

352
00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:45,560
Speaker 1: defeat in seven games, they knocked out the Lakers, Like

353
00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:47,840
Speaker 1: it would just be very funny. So anyway, I like

354
00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:52,359
Speaker 1: even money on the Clippers. Let's go to Utah. Let's

355
00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:56,600
Speaker 1: start with Brandon since apparently he's a jazz respector, and

356
00:17:56,680 --> 00:17:58,600
Speaker 1: let's get a sense for what his number is. You

357
00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:00,600
Speaker 1: got to respect the jazz. You've not heard this. You

358
00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:02,480
Speaker 1: have to respect the jazz. That's we've been told over

359
00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:03,000
Speaker 1: and over again.

360
00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:04,239
Speaker 4: I need to here it is.

361
00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:08,720
Speaker 2: Yeah. So I mean it comes down again to the

362
00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:12,239
Speaker 2: potential bracket here. And as we're talking about this, I

363
00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:15,720
Speaker 2: feel like maybe I am leaning too hard on the

364
00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:18,199
Speaker 2: likelihood of both LA teams ending in the two and

365
00:18:18,280 --> 00:18:21,480
Speaker 2: three spots, and maybe it would need to account better

366
00:18:21,560 --> 00:18:24,920
Speaker 2: for even if that seems most likely if everything is

367
00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:27,080
Speaker 2: played out normally, I don't know if I have factored

368
00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:30,280
Speaker 2: enough in the motivation that if it gets close, one

369
00:18:30,280 --> 00:18:32,080
Speaker 2: of those teams is just going to tank its way

370
00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:33,840
Speaker 2: right out of there and make sure they don't end

371
00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:36,000
Speaker 2: up in the two three so that we do get

372
00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:39,800
Speaker 2: la avoiding each other until the conference finals. But for me,

373
00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:43,000
Speaker 2: I was factoring in really really the bracket as well.

374
00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:45,199
Speaker 2: Let it here, So I have the Jazz as a

375
00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:47,640
Speaker 2: huge first round favorite. I have them at ninety five

376
00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:50,119
Speaker 2: percent to make it past the first round. There's just

377
00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:53,560
Speaker 2: not an eight seed that I fear against them, and

378
00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:56,000
Speaker 2: in the seven game series, I just think that that

379
00:18:56,480 --> 00:18:58,439
Speaker 2: I think they're going to move on. And then in

380
00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:01,560
Speaker 2: the second round, it's just if it's the Lakers. I

381
00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:03,800
Speaker 2: don't want the Lakers. So you know, anybody against the Lakers,

382
00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:06,439
Speaker 2: anybody against Lebron, I don't feel good about it. I

383
00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:09,560
Speaker 2: don't really fear anybody else for the Jazz. I'm not

384
00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:14,640
Speaker 2: saying that they should steamroll anyone, but there's there's nobody

385
00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:17,600
Speaker 2: in the West other than the Lakers that actually fear.

386
00:19:17,640 --> 00:19:20,240
Speaker 2: I don't think anyone fear is the Clippers. I think

387
00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:22,359
Speaker 2: I think if I'm one of those young teams in

388
00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:24,600
Speaker 2: the West, I'm looking at the Clippers just waiting for

389
00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:26,720
Speaker 2: my chance at them. I saw what happened last year.

390
00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:28,800
Speaker 2: I saw how they melt it down. I think I

391
00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:31,000
Speaker 2: can punch Kawhi and PG in the mouth and come

392
00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:33,720
Speaker 2: after them. Maybe not, maybe they'll come back with a

393
00:19:33,800 --> 00:19:36,320
Speaker 2: vengeance and show that's wrong. But right now, I don't

394
00:19:36,359 --> 00:19:38,800
Speaker 2: fear that team. I want that team. I want to

395
00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:42,399
Speaker 2: beat that team. And if I'm the Jazz, certainly, I

396
00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:45,960
Speaker 2: think the Jazz should be favored decently against any other

397
00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:48,479
Speaker 2: team outside of the LA teams. So I had them

398
00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:50,760
Speaker 2: at ninety five and then sixty percent to move on

399
00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:54,800
Speaker 2: up with the Jazz personally at minus one thirty, so

400
00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:58,399
Speaker 2: I have them at better than better than even odds

401
00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:01,080
Speaker 2: to move on. I realize no book would put that,

402
00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:04,159
Speaker 2: but that tells me if this was out there, the

403
00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:07,119
Speaker 2: Jazz making the conference finals are best I would be

404
00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:07,879
Speaker 2: taking right now.

405
00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:15,320
Speaker 4: Wow, then the confidence this is unbelievable.

406
00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:16,159
Speaker 2: That's just wow.

407
00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:21,080
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, so we're he we're gonna be betting

408
00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:25,040
Speaker 1: against Brandon. Yeah, playoffs, just get like we'll be pulling

409
00:20:25,040 --> 00:20:27,879
Speaker 1: together and going against Brandon. We're definitely going against Brandon.

410
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:30,680
Speaker 1: I have I'm gonna I have to have the Jazz

411
00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:37,760
Speaker 1: at plus two fifty woul Yeah, I think their favorite

412
00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:40,080
Speaker 1: over any team that they play in the first round.

413
00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:45,560
Speaker 3: But if I look at my numbers, they are underdog

414
00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:48,520
Speaker 3: to the Lakers. They're underdog to the Clippers, and then honestly,

415
00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:51,800
Speaker 3: I have them an underdog to the Nuggets. Like when

416
00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:55,280
Speaker 3: you look, I mean the Lakers matchup as obvious the Clippers.

417
00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:59,680
Speaker 3: They have nobody to stop Kawhi Leonard and and Paul George.

418
00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:03,240
Speaker 3: The Clippers have so many wings between Kawhi leon or

419
00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:08,080
Speaker 3: Paul George, Marcus Morris, Nick Batoom. It's just a bad

420
00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:12,600
Speaker 3: matchup for Royce O'Neill and Bogdanovich. Like, I don't want

421
00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:15,520
Speaker 3: that matchup. If I'm if I'm the if I'm the Jazz, like,

422
00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:18,480
Speaker 3: I don't want that. That's the last matchup I want.

423
00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:21,879
Speaker 3: Then when it comes to the Nuggets, Jokic has just

424
00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:26,840
Speaker 3: made go Bear his son his entire career. Like, I

425
00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:28,200
Speaker 3: don't see. I don't see.

426
00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:30,560
Speaker 4: How the Jazz be either one of those teams.

427
00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:32,600
Speaker 3: So you know, when I look at their final sizes,

428
00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:35,560
Speaker 3: and final sized are plus eight hundred, which gives them

429
00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:39,399
Speaker 3: eleven percent chance. The conference odds are plus four hundred,

430
00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:44,080
Speaker 3: which gives them a twenty percent chance. For me, I

431
00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:46,320
Speaker 3: want that Jazz money give it to me. Come give

432
00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:48,800
Speaker 3: me that Jazz money. So I'm bumping the odds up

433
00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:51,000
Speaker 3: to plus two two fifty. You know, it gives them

434
00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:53,960
Speaker 3: a twenty eight percent chance. You know this probably should

435
00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:56,760
Speaker 3: be around, probably should be a little bit lower. But

436
00:21:57,240 --> 00:21:59,920
Speaker 3: I'm I'm taking everybody's money. So I'm I want the lie.

437
00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:00,399
Speaker 4: I believe.

438
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:01,520
Speaker 1: I love it.

439
00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:02,280
Speaker 2: I love it.

440
00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:03,280
Speaker 4: That's so great.

441
00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:05,280
Speaker 1: The variance is so well between the two of you.

442
00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:09,480
Speaker 1: That is, by our our calculator, that's twenty eight point

443
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:13,960
Speaker 1: six percent chance, a less than one in three chance

444
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:18,040
Speaker 1: that the Utah Jazz make the conference finals. I love it.

445
00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:21,560
Speaker 1: So I am Galdilocks. I'm right in the middle of

446
00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:23,440
Speaker 1: you two. I've got the Jazz at plus one point

447
00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:27,720
Speaker 1: fifty about forty percent chance. And for me, it's like, okay, look,

448
00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:31,320
Speaker 1: I don't think that they should be They should not

449
00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:37,359
Speaker 1: be a minus. That's not a thing. Brandon. Yeah, but

450
00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:39,440
Speaker 1: I get while you're saying that, though, You're like, they're

451
00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:42,360
Speaker 1: the number one seed by a fair number of games,

452
00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:46,239
Speaker 1: with three All Stars, the presumptive defensive player of the Year,

453
00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:47,600
Speaker 1: which is gonna be wrong by the way, he should

454
00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:51,800
Speaker 1: not be dbo y again. But like the top offense,

455
00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:54,119
Speaker 1: They're shooting the most threes in the league, et cetera, etcetera.

456
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:57,520
Speaker 1: I get it, but I do think what what Raheem

457
00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:00,720
Speaker 1: said really does matter? You said, like, who does Utah

458
00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:01,560
Speaker 1: have to be afraid of?

459
00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:01,880
Speaker 4: They?

460
00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:03,840
Speaker 1: I will tell you talking to their fans on Twitter,

461
00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:07,240
Speaker 1: they are terrified of the Nuggets. They don't want to

462
00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:10,639
Speaker 1: see that team ever again. Which is funny because they

463
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:13,040
Speaker 1: had a three to one lead, like they had the

464
00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:15,440
Speaker 1: chance to beat them, they had the shot from Conley.

465
00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:19,879
Speaker 1: It's just that Jokic is You have to think of

466
00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:21,760
Speaker 1: it this way. This is like the big thing with

467
00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:27,159
Speaker 1: the Jazz. Their whole thing is built around Gobert. I

468
00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:29,440
Speaker 1: think Mitchell is their best player because of what he

469
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:33,000
Speaker 1: does the eye value, but their entire thing is built

470
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:35,720
Speaker 1: around Go Bear. And this is kind of the same

471
00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:39,080
Speaker 1: thing with the Warriors. In Draymond. If you could beat

472
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:44,320
Speaker 1: Draymond on the switch, their schemes started to go haywire

473
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:47,439
Speaker 1: because it was all built around We're gonna switch with

474
00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:50,040
Speaker 1: Draymond no matter what, and you're gonna have to beat

475
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:53,040
Speaker 1: Draymond one on one. The Pelicans one of the reasons

476
00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:55,359
Speaker 1: I love them before Boogie got hurt that year and

477
00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:59,800
Speaker 1: in seventeen I think was they had Boogie and Ad

478
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 1: who could both humbo break that. The Nuggets the same

479
00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:09,320
Speaker 1: thing with the Jazz and Rudy. Rudy can't switch that well.

480
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:11,960
Speaker 1: He can do all of it, can't switch that well,

481
00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:13,600
Speaker 1: but he's got to drop. And so if you have

482
00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:15,760
Speaker 1: guys that can punish him on the drop with floaters,

483
00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:18,240
Speaker 1: if you have guys that can punish him in the post,

484
00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:24,480
Speaker 1: like Jokic can, it breaks their whole defensive system.

485
00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:29,280
Speaker 2: The thing I think about the Jazz that were collectively

486
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:35,400
Speaker 2: underrating or overlooking perhaps is that we're focusing so much

487
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:37,800
Speaker 2: on their defense and on go bet and on everything

488
00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:40,120
Speaker 2: that we've seen in recent playoffs, all of which is fair.

489
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:42,639
Speaker 2: These are all fair critiques. I think what we're missing

490
00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:45,280
Speaker 2: is the level that this offense has gotten to this year.

491
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:49,399
Speaker 2: And in a matt up against the Nuggets, against the Clippers,

492
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:53,879
Speaker 2: these are not defenses that I'm confident in really pushing

493
00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:57,359
Speaker 2: Utah and taking away those threes, taking away those good looks,

494
00:24:57,359 --> 00:24:59,199
Speaker 2: I think the Jazz are to score a lot of

495
00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:01,879
Speaker 2: points on those teams. I think that's why for me,

496
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:04,400
Speaker 2: the Lakers are the teams that I don't want because

497
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:07,399
Speaker 2: I know their defense is really good. But otherwise I

498
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:10,080
Speaker 2: don't know that these other teams are gonna slow. Like

499
00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:13,480
Speaker 2: I agree, I don't know that Gobert is gonna be

500
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:17,439
Speaker 2: a big threat against Jokic against the Clippers. But I

501
00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:20,679
Speaker 2: also am confident this year in this Jazz team that

502
00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:23,439
Speaker 2: they're gonna score and they're gonna get those points just

503
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:25,160
Speaker 2: as much on the other end. And I think we're

504
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:29,320
Speaker 2: maybe underrating Utah's offense and what they can be because

505
00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:31,160
Speaker 2: we haven't seen it in the playoffs in the past.

506
00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:35,360
Speaker 1: The two things there, Do you guys know Ken Barclay

507
00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:37,119
Speaker 1: that does you better you bet? Do you guys know

508
00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:41,040
Speaker 1: Ken lockeiy Lockerson on Twitter? So Ken told me this

509
00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:43,160
Speaker 1: a long time ago and is stuck in my brain

510
00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:45,560
Speaker 1: and I cannot get it out. He's he is one

511
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 1: of the smartest betting minds I know. And Ken like

512
00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 1: fades the public and all sorts of spots and like

513
00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:55,080
Speaker 1: knows how to likenful like he reads the market the

514
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:57,520
Speaker 1: way Raheem does, and he's got like his models are

515
00:25:57,560 --> 00:26:00,600
Speaker 1: always very much on point. But he told me something interesting.

516
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:03,119
Speaker 1: He said, the NBA is and he loves betting. The

517
00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:05,960
Speaker 1: NBA but he says the NBA is the ones one

518
00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:09,040
Speaker 1: sport where instead of baiting the narrative, I bet the

519
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:12,600
Speaker 1: narrative because that's what usually happens. And that's stuck with

520
00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:15,239
Speaker 1: me in my head pretty consistently because we've seen it

521
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:18,280
Speaker 1: happen over and over and over again, like the narrative

522
00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:21,840
Speaker 1: being like teams like Milwaukee with Yannis don't make the finals,

523
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:26,879
Speaker 1: the teams like the Lakers make the finals. And so

524
00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:30,600
Speaker 1: here's the question is, like, is the narrative, Oh yeah, No,

525
00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:33,879
Speaker 1: Utah they never crack and they're definitely their shooters are

526
00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:37,199
Speaker 1: absolutely going to make all the shots that they need to. No,

527
00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:38,960
Speaker 1: the narrative is like those guys are not are going

528
00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:41,480
Speaker 1: to miss in the playoffs, and I think it's probably

529
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:43,159
Speaker 1: a pretty fair count. The second thing, if you want

530
00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:46,440
Speaker 1: to get into actual like tangible stuff a lot is

531
00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 1: if you really go back and watch Utah, which I

532
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:51,240
Speaker 1: I have, Like I've gone back and watched a lot

533
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:54,639
Speaker 1: and their scheme in execution is brilliant, like they just

534
00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:57,119
Speaker 1: they execute really well. But Brandon, they're not doing anything

535
00:26:57,160 --> 00:27:01,119
Speaker 1: super complicated, like it is very big stuff, which is

536
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:03,520
Speaker 1: good because honestly, the super complicated stuff falls apart in

537
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:07,960
Speaker 1: the playoffs. The way that they're defended is what's gonna

538
00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:10,280
Speaker 1: change is that every team is gonna be like, we're

539
00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:14,479
Speaker 1: switching everything. We're just gonna switch. So all of that

540
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:17,160
Speaker 1: week's side, they're basically gonna say, Donovan Mitchell and Rudy

541
00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:20,439
Speaker 1: gober are gonna have to beat us, and Mitchell I

542
00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 1: think can do it. But eventually, like there's that, there's

543
00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:26,080
Speaker 1: those sequences where a small gets switched on to Rudy

544
00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 1: and Rudy's like, give me the ball. I can do it.

545
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:31,520
Speaker 1: I've got a six foot two dude on me, just kidding,

546
00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:34,000
Speaker 1: And then I see it all the time. The jazz

547
00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:38,120
Speaker 1: wing guys just go, ah, oh, sorry, the pass isn't there,

548
00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:41,160
Speaker 1: and they move it because they know he can't score

549
00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:44,359
Speaker 1: on them, and like those kind of things break it down.

550
00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:45,920
Speaker 1: You're right, I think they're gonna score. I don't think

551
00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:47,960
Speaker 1: they're gonna score enough the Suns. By the way, Brandon,

552
00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:50,959
Speaker 1: one more note on Utah for all of the like,

553
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:52,760
Speaker 1: look how amazing they've been and they're gonna get the

554
00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:55,800
Speaker 1: one seed. They're two games up in the lost column

555
00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:56,480
Speaker 1: over Phoenix.

556
00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:56,960
Speaker 4: Right now.

557
00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:01,720
Speaker 1: That's wild that after every after all the stuff that's

558
00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:06,119
Speaker 1: going on. The Jazz are only two up in the

559
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:10,160
Speaker 1: lost column versus the Suns. That's brutal for the Jazz

560
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:12,240
Speaker 1: to have had such a good start and still be

561
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:18,440
Speaker 1: only two up in the lost column. Is that is rough? Brandon?

562
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:19,679
Speaker 1: What have you got for the Suns?

563
00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:21,040
Speaker 4: Yeah?

564
00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 2: So I think I'm just kind of around the middle

565
00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:25,040
Speaker 2: on the Suns. I have them just a little bit

566
00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:26,760
Speaker 2: under fifty to fifty to get out of the first

567
00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:30,080
Speaker 2: round and thirty percent from there. So I have them

568
00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:33,520
Speaker 2: at plus six hundred to make it to the conference finals.

569
00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:38,840
Speaker 2: I worry a little bit. Knock them all the wood.

570
00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:40,760
Speaker 2: I want him healthy. I want to see the run.

571
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:44,000
Speaker 2: I'm worried about Chris Paul, just not as a player.

572
00:28:44,040 --> 00:28:45,600
Speaker 2: If he's on the car, he's going to be great.

573
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:48,760
Speaker 2: But part of the reason that we never see Chris

574
00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:50,520
Speaker 2: Paul make the deep run is because the dude just

575
00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:54,080
Speaker 2: can't stay healthy. And we we're on like two seasons

576
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:57,960
Speaker 2: in a row of healthy Chris Paul and how long

577
00:28:58,040 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 2: can this keep up? How deep of a playoff run

578
00:28:59,880 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 2: is going to be there? So for me, if he's

579
00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 2: not there, I don't want any part of this team

580
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:06,680
Speaker 2: making a conference finals. I know what they did in

581
00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:08,880
Speaker 2: the bubble last year without him, but I want Chris

582
00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:12,440
Speaker 2: Paul there if filmmaker run, So my lack of confidence

583
00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:15,600
Speaker 2: and his staying healthy throughout and then just them being

584
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:18,480
Speaker 2: there before makes this kind of a stay away for

585
00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:20,920
Speaker 2: me mostly. But I had at six hundred.

586
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 1: I have much shorter because I think all my numbers

587
00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 1: are a lot are a lot shorter. And the reason

588
00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:35,920
Speaker 1: is for me, Like I look at it as you

589
00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:38,560
Speaker 1: have to factor in okay, percentage chance that they get

590
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:41,560
Speaker 1: a favorable matchup, percentage chance that there is a random

591
00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:43,680
Speaker 1: upset that nobody saw coming, Like you have to factor

592
00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:45,960
Speaker 1: in for these unknown things like we're not you know,

593
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 1: none of us are worried about the Clippers or like

594
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:51,600
Speaker 1: the first round matchups, but like, look what if Dame

595
00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:54,200
Speaker 1: time just goes crazy versus the Clippers and Paul George

596
00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:57,240
Speaker 1: once again has to watch Dame hit a thirty five

597
00:29:57,280 --> 00:30:00,400
Speaker 1: footer in his face. Right if the Sun's get the

598
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:02,400
Speaker 1: Blazers in the second round, all of a sudden, that

599
00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:05,440
Speaker 1: changes things put pretty dramatically. So I've only got on

600
00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:09,960
Speaker 1: at plus two thirty. I've gotten much shorter. I believe

601
00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:11,720
Speaker 1: in the Suns. I like them quite a bit. I

602
00:30:11,760 --> 00:30:14,520
Speaker 1: think that, like, you do have to put them behind

603
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:17,280
Speaker 1: Utah just because you do have to have some respect

604
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:19,479
Speaker 1: for what the Jazz of accomplished in the regular season.

605
00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:21,760
Speaker 1: But I also like the way that the Suns match

606
00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 1: up with a lot of these teams. I like where

607
00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:25,040
Speaker 1: they match up with the Clippers. I like how they

608
00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:26,880
Speaker 1: match up with the Jazz. I like how they match

609
00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:31,800
Speaker 1: up with the Nuggets. Anywhere that the Suns land, it's

610
00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 1: likely unless they face the Lakers, it's pretty likely that

611
00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:37,040
Speaker 1: I'm going to bet the Suns. I think that they've

612
00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:40,120
Speaker 1: got I think they're gonna go under the radar. I

613
00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 1: think they won't get it. We'll be interesting is let's

614
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 1: say the Phoenix slides a little bit and they wind

615
00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:45,640
Speaker 1: up in a four or five, or Denver slides and

616
00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:47,520
Speaker 1: they wind up in a three six. If that's a

617
00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:50,320
Speaker 1: first round series, where's the public going to come in on.

618
00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:52,560
Speaker 1: I feel like the public's actually going to come in

619
00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:55,680
Speaker 1: on Denver and that I actually might actually give like

620
00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:57,680
Speaker 1: a better opportunity to bet the Suns. But like this,

621
00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:00,640
Speaker 1: this is kind of where I'm fat. I'm not worried

622
00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:04,760
Speaker 1: about the public hammering the Suns, so you can make

623
00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:08,080
Speaker 1: the number longer, but I have it at plus two

624
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:11,880
Speaker 1: thirty from a pure odds of it happening standpoint, Rahiem,

625
00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:13,120
Speaker 1: what do you got see?

626
00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:15,520
Speaker 3: I was struggling with this number because when I look

627
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:18,240
Speaker 3: at my model, I actually have the Suns. If I'm

628
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 3: not incorporating any priors, I have the Sons, the second

629
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:22,080
Speaker 3: best team.

630
00:31:21,920 --> 00:31:23,239
Speaker 1: In the league.

631
00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:26,240
Speaker 3: So it's just but I mean, obviously we know that

632
00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 3: teams like the Lakers and teams like you know, the

633
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:32,320
Speaker 3: Clippers and the Nuggets, they're not playing at peak form now,

634
00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:35,920
Speaker 3: so I have to, you know, somehow factor that into

635
00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 3: the number. Now, you know, they're plus twenty eight hundred

636
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:43,920
Speaker 3: to win the finals, plus twelve hundred to win the conference.

637
00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 3: And you know, from what I see basketball wise, you

638
00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:51,760
Speaker 3: got a top ten offense, top ten defense, you got shooters,

639
00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:53,520
Speaker 3: you got a closer in Devin book or you got

640
00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:57,440
Speaker 3: wings everywhere. I want to make this number lower, but

641
00:31:57,520 --> 00:31:59,600
Speaker 3: it's just it just doesn't even make sense to do so,

642
00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:02,000
Speaker 3: and I need to entice some action. So I'm I

643
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:04,880
Speaker 3: think I'm somewhere in between you and Brandon. I'm probably

644
00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:09,920
Speaker 3: in the I'm probably gonna go plus four fifty. I

645
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:12,640
Speaker 3: think in that range is just you know, it captures

646
00:32:13,760 --> 00:32:16,160
Speaker 3: the lack of respect for the Suns, but somewhat of

647
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:17,640
Speaker 3: respect that I have for the Sons because I don't

648
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:20,000
Speaker 3: want to make it too high and then lead myself open.

649
00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:21,880
Speaker 4: Because I think this team is good enough to make

650
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:23,000
Speaker 4: the conference finals.

651
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:25,640
Speaker 1: That's just crazy me because that's an eighteen percent chance, right,

652
00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:28,440
Speaker 1: like an eighteen percent chance, Like only eighteen percent of

653
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:30,680
Speaker 1: the time they make it to the conference finals.

654
00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:31,800
Speaker 4: I don't know.

655
00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:33,960
Speaker 1: I think that that for as good as they've been,

656
00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:36,160
Speaker 1: Like they're right there, record wise, they're right there, advanced

657
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:39,560
Speaker 1: metric wise, they're not over their head in Pythagorea, like

658
00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:41,760
Speaker 1: this exercise. What I love that talking to you guys.

659
00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 1: It kind of makes me realize where we're at and

660
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:46,240
Speaker 1: like the perceptions on things. And you just said that

661
00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:49,680
Speaker 1: their model has them the second best team in the league.

662
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:52,800
Speaker 1: I do think that we're probably a little low on

663
00:32:53,360 --> 00:32:55,280
Speaker 1: the Suns, and like I want it to stay there,

664
00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:57,360
Speaker 1: Like all I want is for Utah is to keep

665
00:32:57,360 --> 00:32:59,720
Speaker 1: the one and for the Suns to stay right where

666
00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:02,120
Speaker 1: they're so they don't get any of the attention. I

667
00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:04,240
Speaker 1: want them as long as they don't face the Laker

668
00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:06,120
Speaker 1: it's going to be like a choice betting opportunity. I

669
00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:11,920
Speaker 1: think on the Suns. Oh all right, Brandon, let's go

670
00:33:12,840 --> 00:33:15,080
Speaker 1: to the Nuggets. Where have you got the Nuggets to

671
00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:16,360
Speaker 1: make the conference finals? This has got to be a

672
00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:18,320
Speaker 1: pretty low number since you respect the Jazz.

673
00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:22,800
Speaker 2: Actually it's a high number because it's it's my lack

674
00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:24,640
Speaker 2: of respect for the Suns. I think that did I

675
00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:27,800
Speaker 2: have the Nuggets ahead of the Suns? So I And

676
00:33:28,040 --> 00:33:31,000
Speaker 2: it's the difference is I've seen this before. I've seen

677
00:33:31,040 --> 00:33:34,840
Speaker 2: the Nuggets. I know that I'm getting the best player

678
00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:37,320
Speaker 2: in the league so far this year, Nikola Jokic, and

679
00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:39,040
Speaker 2: we've seen how good he is in the playoffs. He

680
00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:41,560
Speaker 2: has another gear when he gets there. Maybe not, maybe

681
00:33:41,560 --> 00:33:44,440
Speaker 2: this is playoff gear all year, but that's fine if

682
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:47,760
Speaker 2: it is. I have the Nuggets ever so slightly better

683
00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:49,920
Speaker 2: than a coin flip to get out of the first round,

684
00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:54,959
Speaker 2: and then around forty percent after that. Again, I think

685
00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:57,840
Speaker 2: that the Nuggets are going to present matchup problems for

686
00:33:57,880 --> 00:34:00,560
Speaker 2: a lot of teams. Obviously, like usual, they want nothing

687
00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:03,360
Speaker 2: to do with the Lakers. But I think two, I

688
00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 2: like the Nuggets to finish strong the second half here.

689
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:08,080
Speaker 2: I think there's a pretty good chance that they get

690
00:34:08,120 --> 00:34:12,279
Speaker 2: into a nice seed and a nice position in the bracket. Also,

691
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:14,040
Speaker 2: I think there's a very low chance that they're going

692
00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:17,040
Speaker 2: to face the Lakers in the first round, and we

693
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:18,759
Speaker 2: know if they're going to do anything they can to

694
00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:21,239
Speaker 2: just stay away from them as long as possible. If

695
00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:23,400
Speaker 2: they do stay away from them, I just think they

696
00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:25,880
Speaker 2: have a pretty good chance against anyone else. They obviously

697
00:34:25,920 --> 00:34:28,319
Speaker 2: are not going to fear the Clippers, not after last year,

698
00:34:28,840 --> 00:34:31,400
Speaker 2: And like you guys said, I think that they would

699
00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:33,840
Speaker 2: certainly like their chances against the Jazz. I think that

700
00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:36,759
Speaker 2: they would feel decent about it. So I have them

701
00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:40,800
Speaker 2: at plus three fifty, and I'm sure a book won't

702
00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:43,359
Speaker 2: offer that, but I think it's another team that if

703
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:45,759
Speaker 2: this were offered, I'm probably looking to play Denver a

704
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:46,399
Speaker 2: little bit here.

705
00:34:47,400 --> 00:34:50,040
Speaker 1: What's funny is you have them so much higher at

706
00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:52,520
Speaker 1: plus three fifty, and I still have them shorter at

707
00:34:52,520 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 1: plus three hundred, even though neither their odds or worse.

708
00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:56,600
Speaker 1: So I probably need to I probably need a lower

709
00:34:56,680 --> 00:35:00,600
Speaker 1: mine to somewhere around plus four hundred, which is a

710
00:35:00,600 --> 00:35:05,400
Speaker 1: twenty percent chance. So my thought process is kind of

711
00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:06,799
Speaker 1: is kind of complicated.

712
00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:07,000
Speaker 6: Here.

713
00:35:07,600 --> 00:35:10,440
Speaker 1: Yes we've seen them. Yes we know they have matchup advantages,

714
00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:12,560
Speaker 1: but we do need to keep in mind a couple

715
00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:16,520
Speaker 1: of things. One, they were not only down three to

716
00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:19,480
Speaker 1: one twice last year, but they were down three to

717
00:35:19,520 --> 00:35:23,560
Speaker 1: one and down double digits versus the Clippers in all

718
00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:27,680
Speaker 1: three of the final three games. The Clippers collapse was

719
00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:34,000
Speaker 1: truly incredible, and even like I will take absolute credit

720
00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:38,640
Speaker 1: for having bet on it and called it, but it's

721
00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:41,439
Speaker 1: not like I didn't hedge when they went up three

722
00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:50,120
Speaker 1: to one, because it did. I also think that a

723
00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:53,520
Speaker 1: big thing with Denver is they are not the same

724
00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:57,040
Speaker 1: team as last year, which is a big misconception. It's like, oh,

725
00:35:57,160 --> 00:36:00,239
Speaker 1: got Murray and Jokich. Okay, Yeah, Jeremy Grant's gone and

726
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:01,920
Speaker 1: he was a big part of their success versus the

727
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:04,600
Speaker 1: Clippers in guarding Kawhi and PG. They do not have

728
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:07,600
Speaker 1: that guy right now there they are. They're big wing

729
00:36:07,680 --> 00:36:13,800
Speaker 1: defender right now is PJ Doser. Their bench is smaller

730
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:17,400
Speaker 1: with Faku Compazo, who is not allowed to ride Space Mountain.

731
00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:24,279
Speaker 1: They don't really have great bigs. They're having to play

732
00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:27,480
Speaker 1: small ball five with either Jamichael Green or Paul millsapp

733
00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:31,320
Speaker 1: If you have to play against Utah and Derek Favors

734
00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:36,719
Speaker 1: is your backup five that gets nasty. So there's like

735
00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:39,719
Speaker 1: a bunch of ways in which this isn't necessarily that team.

736
00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:42,959
Speaker 1: And look, there's a pretty decent chance because I don't

737
00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:45,319
Speaker 1: think that. I don't think the Nuggets for a thirty

738
00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:48,560
Speaker 1: year in a row, will manipulate their standings. I think if, like,

739
00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:51,920
Speaker 1: if they're in the five and the Lakers have slide

740
00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:56,880
Speaker 1: to the four, they'll just be like, come what may fine, Like, well,

741
00:36:56,960 --> 00:37:01,640
Speaker 1: you know that's how it goes. So all that said,

742
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:03,840
Speaker 1: I think I will go ahead and momp them the

743
00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:07,400
Speaker 1: plus four hundred. I do think that they're still a

744
00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:09,640
Speaker 1: really dangerous team. I think they're going to be really tough,

745
00:37:10,280 --> 00:37:12,399
Speaker 1: but they're also a team I'm going to be looking

746
00:37:12,440 --> 00:37:17,600
Speaker 1: at more in terms of series by series with the differentials, right, Like,

747
00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:19,560
Speaker 1: I'll be betting them to win over two games in

748
00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:23,040
Speaker 1: every series, and that's probably where or over one game

749
00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:25,319
Speaker 1: in every series, and that's probably where I'll wind up.

750
00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:26,640
Speaker 1: Rahim where have you got the Nuggets?

751
00:37:26,960 --> 00:37:29,080
Speaker 4: I'm wellinga put them at the same number as I

752
00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:29,880
Speaker 4: have the Suns.

753
00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:31,560
Speaker 3: I think I'm giving them the Suns a little bit

754
00:37:31,560 --> 00:37:34,520
Speaker 3: more respect just based on their body of work this season.

755
00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:37,959
Speaker 4: But I just I can't respect this Nuggets defense at all.

756
00:37:38,120 --> 00:37:41,080
Speaker 3: Like and I's just I mean, right now, they're slated

757
00:37:41,120 --> 00:37:43,200
Speaker 3: to play the Clippers, and even though I think they're

758
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:45,719
Speaker 3: going to make a run, it's tough to say that

759
00:37:45,760 --> 00:37:49,040
Speaker 3: they're going to get into that top four. I think

760
00:37:49,040 --> 00:37:51,200
Speaker 3: the Lakers are still playing well enough to you know,

761
00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:55,680
Speaker 3: maintain the top four seed. And you know, if they're

762
00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:58,319
Speaker 3: playing you know, the Lakes. To me, if they're playing

763
00:37:58,320 --> 00:38:01,120
Speaker 3: the Lakers or the Clippers, they're out. So there's a

764
00:38:01,120 --> 00:38:02,879
Speaker 3: good chance that they could play one of those two

765
00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:06,759
Speaker 3: in the in rounds one or two. So I just

766
00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:08,719
Speaker 3: I think I'm gonna leave it at like plus four

767
00:38:08,760 --> 00:38:10,239
Speaker 3: to fifty. I'm gonna be a little bit concerned. I'm

768
00:38:10,239 --> 00:38:12,239
Speaker 3: gonna give them respect for what they did last year,

769
00:38:12,719 --> 00:38:15,600
Speaker 3: but I'm not I can't go too much lower than that.

770
00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:19,080
Speaker 1: You want a number that's going to surprise you. From

771
00:38:19,160 --> 00:38:22,400
Speaker 1: February tenth, so it's it's March eighteenth as we record this,

772
00:38:22,560 --> 00:38:25,400
Speaker 1: since February tenth, which is over a month of play,

773
00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:31,320
Speaker 1: and for Denver it is seventeen games. Denver is ninth

774
00:38:31,360 --> 00:38:32,280
Speaker 1: in defensive rating.

775
00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:34,480
Speaker 4: Oh, I believe it.

776
00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:37,759
Speaker 3: You know, Cleaning the Glass has them at fifth in

777
00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:39,680
Speaker 3: defensive rating over the last two weeks.

778
00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:43,920
Speaker 1: Yeah. So like under the radar, which is how Denver

779
00:38:43,960 --> 00:38:46,399
Speaker 1: prefers to operate, They're they're getting sneaky good there.

780
00:38:48,760 --> 00:38:51,880
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810
00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:18,040
Speaker 1: One last team in the West. We can just breeze

811
00:40:18,080 --> 00:40:20,760
Speaker 1: through this one. I've got blazers at plus nineteen hundred.

812
00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:25,240
Speaker 1: This team has exceeded expectations. This team has expected reasonable expectations.

813
00:40:25,440 --> 00:40:27,960
Speaker 1: The Pythagora and theorem is like, how are they winning

814
00:40:28,160 --> 00:40:31,520
Speaker 1: the Pythagorea and theory like the pythagoray and expectation numbers

815
00:40:31,640 --> 00:40:37,120
Speaker 1: for Portland are doing the Lebron Jr. Meet like that.

816
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:39,160
Speaker 1: That's what they keep doing. How are you winning? What

817
00:40:39,200 --> 00:40:42,960
Speaker 1: are you doing? It's great. The Dame is clutch, as

818
00:40:43,000 --> 00:40:46,520
Speaker 1: I'll get out. I do not think Nurkicen and CJ

819
00:40:46,600 --> 00:40:48,719
Speaker 1: are going to make them as so much better as

820
00:40:48,760 --> 00:40:51,000
Speaker 1: people think that they are. I think there's a good

821
00:40:51,000 --> 00:40:53,880
Speaker 1: possibility that Portland winds up dropping into the play in.

822
00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:56,120
Speaker 1: I think there's a pretty good chance that Portland winds

823
00:40:56,200 --> 00:40:58,160
Speaker 1: up coming out of the play in. But I do

824
00:40:58,200 --> 00:41:01,279
Speaker 1: think that there's the I think that they are a

825
00:41:01,320 --> 00:41:03,399
Speaker 1: paper they are a house of cards, and I do

826
00:41:03,440 --> 00:41:06,680
Speaker 1: think that they will eventually slip. Even though Dame is

827
00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:08,719
Speaker 1: just absolutely phenomenal and I like a lot of what

828
00:41:08,760 --> 00:41:11,399
Speaker 1: they've done. They are still looking at some trades which

829
00:41:11,400 --> 00:41:15,160
Speaker 1: are going to be interesting. They're they are among a

830
00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:17,799
Speaker 1: I don't know a dozen or so teams I've heard

831
00:41:17,800 --> 00:41:19,840
Speaker 1: connected to Aaron Gordon, so that would be like an

832
00:41:19,880 --> 00:41:24,640
Speaker 1: interesting deal to look at. But I cannot have any

833
00:41:24,640 --> 00:41:27,000
Speaker 1: sort of faith. You talk about defense, This Portland defense

834
00:41:27,080 --> 00:41:31,759
Speaker 1: is bad. Oh yeah, bad game by game, quarter by quarter,

835
00:41:31,840 --> 00:41:35,799
Speaker 1: matchup by matchup bad. So I've got the Blazers at

836
00:41:35,800 --> 00:41:38,840
Speaker 1: plus nineteen hundred. Raheem, werve, you got them?

837
00:41:39,239 --> 00:41:40,600
Speaker 4: I got them. I mean I got a mat plus

838
00:41:40,640 --> 00:41:42,600
Speaker 4: two thousand. I think that's you know, that's about right.

839
00:41:42,640 --> 00:41:45,440
Speaker 3: I mean, you're plus sixty plus sixty six hundred to

840
00:41:45,440 --> 00:41:48,000
Speaker 3: win the finals, plus thirty five hundred to win the

841
00:41:48,280 --> 00:41:49,000
Speaker 3: conference finals.

842
00:41:49,000 --> 00:41:51,680
Speaker 4: So I'm just gonna go plus twenty to one.

843
00:41:52,320 --> 00:41:56,439
Speaker 3: I just to me, it's just the workload that Dame

844
00:41:56,520 --> 00:41:59,560
Speaker 3: has to carry in order for this team to do anything.

845
00:42:00,200 --> 00:42:01,439
Speaker 4: It's just too much.

846
00:42:01,480 --> 00:42:03,000
Speaker 3: And I think at some point it's going to catch

847
00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:04,800
Speaker 3: up to them, just as it did last year against

848
00:42:04,800 --> 00:42:07,360
Speaker 3: the Lakers. So I'm not putting a lot of stock

849
00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:09,680
Speaker 3: in them, and I think twenty to one is the

850
00:42:09,719 --> 00:42:11,719
Speaker 3: right number, right.

851
00:42:12,880 --> 00:42:14,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm about in the same boat. I'm a little

852
00:42:14,880 --> 00:42:17,080
Speaker 2: bit higher. I guess I'm at fifteen hundred. But I

853
00:42:17,120 --> 00:42:20,440
Speaker 2: feel about the same as you guys. I feel like

854
00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:24,080
Speaker 2: the path here for Portland or you know, for any

855
00:42:24,080 --> 00:42:27,799
Speaker 2: team outside of in the West, is that clear top five?

856
00:42:27,920 --> 00:42:29,399
Speaker 2: And then I struggle to come up with who even

857
00:42:29,480 --> 00:42:31,359
Speaker 2: is number six. I looked at the Mavericks, I looked

858
00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:34,919
Speaker 2: at the Warriors. I think the Blazers are the sixth team.

859
00:42:35,480 --> 00:42:39,360
Speaker 2: The path is somehow get into the four or five seed,

860
00:42:39,719 --> 00:42:41,919
Speaker 2: hope that you get to face Phoenix are Denver there

861
00:42:42,040 --> 00:42:44,960
Speaker 2: and then Utah. There's no any of those teams outside

862
00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:46,840
Speaker 2: the five. They're not beating an LA team in a

863
00:42:46,840 --> 00:42:49,120
Speaker 2: playoff series. It's not happening. It's just not going to happen.

864
00:42:49,560 --> 00:42:52,439
Speaker 2: So if I have Dame and I get a chance

865
00:42:52,480 --> 00:42:55,239
Speaker 2: that Phoenix are Denver and then a chance at Utah,

866
00:42:55,440 --> 00:42:57,359
Speaker 2: I have a shot. I at least have a chance there.

867
00:42:57,600 --> 00:42:59,200
Speaker 2: So I kind of win with what are the odds

868
00:42:59,239 --> 00:43:02,160
Speaker 2: of getting into the four or five matchup, which I

869
00:43:02,160 --> 00:43:05,040
Speaker 2: think are not great but a possibility, and then having

870
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:07,200
Speaker 2: a shot from there. So I came with fifteen hundred,

871
00:43:07,239 --> 00:43:09,360
Speaker 2: but I think it's one of those first five teams.

872
00:43:09,360 --> 00:43:12,080
Speaker 2: Anyone after that is just not someone I'm feeling confident about.

873
00:43:12,600 --> 00:43:14,680
Speaker 1: All right, let's go to the Eastern Conference. Let's start

874
00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:16,799
Speaker 1: at the bottom and we'll go back up. So we'll

875
00:43:16,840 --> 00:43:20,160
Speaker 1: kind of sneak draft this. I've got Hawks at plus

876
00:43:20,200 --> 00:43:22,320
Speaker 1: twelve hundred for a seven point six to nine percent

877
00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:25,239
Speaker 1: chance of reaching the conference finals. They've got a lot

878
00:43:25,239 --> 00:43:28,080
Speaker 1: of offense. They've got Trey Young. The defense is probably

879
00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:30,680
Speaker 1: a little underrated given all their injuries. They will get

880
00:43:30,680 --> 00:43:33,879
Speaker 1: DeAndre Hunter back, presumably before the playoffs. They'll probably get

881
00:43:33,880 --> 00:43:36,560
Speaker 1: Cam Reddish back before the playoffs when healthy. This was

882
00:43:36,560 --> 00:43:39,920
Speaker 1: a decent team. I don't know if I love the

883
00:43:39,960 --> 00:43:43,160
Speaker 1: idea of Trey in a playoff series, but I think

884
00:43:43,160 --> 00:43:44,600
Speaker 1: you have to at least give them a little bit

885
00:43:44,640 --> 00:43:46,640
Speaker 1: of a chance, given the firepower that they've got. I'm

886
00:43:46,719 --> 00:43:49,520
Speaker 1: only give them, you know, not a ten percent or better.

887
00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:51,840
Speaker 1: But I'm also not willing to completely bury them. So

888
00:43:51,880 --> 00:43:54,680
Speaker 1: I've got them at plus twelve hundred. Brandon, where you.

889
00:43:54,680 --> 00:43:55,200
Speaker 5: Get the Hawks?

890
00:43:56,280 --> 00:43:58,880
Speaker 2: So I don't have a Hawks number because we're supposed

891
00:43:58,880 --> 00:44:01,000
Speaker 2: to raid our top six and the Hawks are not

892
00:44:01,080 --> 00:44:02,439
Speaker 2: anywhere near my top six.

893
00:44:04,760 --> 00:44:05,560
Speaker 1: So who have you got?

894
00:44:06,120 --> 00:44:08,759
Speaker 2: Yeah? So, so I again I came up with in

895
00:44:08,840 --> 00:44:10,560
Speaker 2: the East. I had five teams here, and then I

896
00:44:10,560 --> 00:44:14,520
Speaker 2: was like, Okay, who's the sixth team? And I consider

897
00:44:14,560 --> 00:44:17,480
Speaker 2: the Hawks, the Pacers, and the Raptors as a sixth

898
00:44:17,520 --> 00:44:20,560
Speaker 2: most likely team here I end up going with the Raptors.

899
00:44:21,040 --> 00:44:24,880
Speaker 2: And here's my thought on the Raptors is Toronto. I

900
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:26,839
Speaker 2: actually kind of liked when I looked at it. I

901
00:44:26,960 --> 00:44:29,200
Speaker 2: like that they have slid so far. They're barely even

902
00:44:29,200 --> 00:44:31,120
Speaker 2: in the playoff picture right now, like even the play

903
00:44:31,200 --> 00:44:33,719
Speaker 2: in a picture right now. I kind of like that

904
00:44:33,880 --> 00:44:36,360
Speaker 2: because if they keep Kyle Lowry and it's starting to

905
00:44:36,360 --> 00:44:39,400
Speaker 2: look like they're going to it's just it's it's that

906
00:44:39,600 --> 00:44:42,920
Speaker 2: zombie team that they're just not dead. It's still the Raptors,

907
00:44:43,000 --> 00:44:46,520
Speaker 2: and I can totally tun myself into that team, like

908
00:44:46,680 --> 00:44:50,000
Speaker 2: struggling just barely getting into that nine or ten spot,

909
00:44:50,320 --> 00:44:52,839
Speaker 2: winning their way into the eighth seed, and then oh

910
00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:56,040
Speaker 2: Milwaukee at the one seed facing the Raptors in round one.

911
00:44:56,160 --> 00:44:59,640
Speaker 2: We've seen this before. Suddenly the three pointers start falling.

912
00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:02,000
Speaker 2: If you get out of the one seed as the eighth,

913
00:45:02,080 --> 00:45:03,839
Speaker 2: now you get to face the four or five, and

914
00:45:03,880 --> 00:45:05,600
Speaker 2: that's the sweet spot in the East. You get a

915
00:45:05,680 --> 00:45:10,400
Speaker 2: much better matchup there. So I found myself talking, I

916
00:45:10,400 --> 00:45:13,960
Speaker 2: can turn myself into a Raptors path. I can't turn

917
00:45:14,000 --> 00:45:16,120
Speaker 2: myself into a Hawks path. The Hawks are not winning

918
00:45:16,160 --> 00:45:18,080
Speaker 2: two series in the East. Put them up plus, I

919
00:45:18,120 --> 00:45:20,960
Speaker 2: don't care any number, it's not happening. I've put the

920
00:45:21,080 --> 00:45:25,279
Speaker 2: Raptors at twelve hundred, which actually is tied with my

921
00:45:25,400 --> 00:45:27,799
Speaker 2: number five team in the East. I think that there's

922
00:45:27,800 --> 00:45:30,000
Speaker 2: a path there. I'm not willing to count that team

923
00:45:30,040 --> 00:45:32,520
Speaker 2: out until they're dead dead.

924
00:45:33,640 --> 00:45:36,680
Speaker 1: I could see it. The problem I think you've got

925
00:45:36,840 --> 00:45:39,960
Speaker 1: is this, which is there are only three games back

926
00:45:40,000 --> 00:45:41,719
Speaker 1: in the lost column from the sixth seed, and we

927
00:45:41,800 --> 00:45:43,440
Speaker 1: got a long time to go. So the Raptors can

928
00:45:43,440 --> 00:45:48,759
Speaker 1: absolutely crawl out of this. The fact that FVV and Siakam,

929
00:45:48,800 --> 00:45:51,279
Speaker 1: et cetera. Are all coming off of not just the

930
00:45:51,360 --> 00:45:56,960
Speaker 1: health and safety protocols, but actually having it, you do

931
00:45:57,040 --> 00:45:59,280
Speaker 1: have to downgrade them a little bit. We've seen Jason

932
00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:01,919
Speaker 1: Tatum struggle. We've seen other guys say that they haven't

933
00:46:01,960 --> 00:46:04,920
Speaker 1: been right. The Raptors are only gonna be able to

934
00:46:04,960 --> 00:46:08,799
Speaker 1: do this if everybody is right like they're. They're thin

935
00:46:09,040 --> 00:46:14,640
Speaker 1: and pretty delicately structured as it is. If anything starts

936
00:46:14,719 --> 00:46:17,360
Speaker 1: to crack, they're gonna tumble. I think there's a pretty

937
00:46:17,360 --> 00:46:19,520
Speaker 1: good chance that Massai just calls it off and makes

938
00:46:19,520 --> 00:46:21,560
Speaker 1: some sort of trade. I think that. I mean, they

939
00:46:21,719 --> 00:46:24,279
Speaker 1: talked about that they're not gonna deal Lowry. They've they

940
00:46:24,320 --> 00:46:27,520
Speaker 1: decided and talk to Lowry and they're not gonna deal him.

941
00:46:27,920 --> 00:46:31,680
Speaker 1: They say but I think you still have to be

942
00:46:31,760 --> 00:46:34,200
Speaker 1: I think a little bit concerned for a possible move

943
00:46:34,239 --> 00:46:37,480
Speaker 1: to be like let's let's let's just come back next year.

944
00:46:37,880 --> 00:46:39,759
Speaker 1: The other thing is is all right, they're only three back,

945
00:46:39,800 --> 00:46:42,520
Speaker 1: but they do have to jump one, two, three, four

946
00:46:42,640 --> 00:46:45,960
Speaker 1: teams to get into a top six spot. And if

947
00:46:45,960 --> 00:46:50,000
Speaker 1: you're not, then you're talking about let's assume for the moment,

948
00:46:50,200 --> 00:46:51,960
Speaker 1: like if it's the if it's the Bucks, I can

949
00:46:52,040 --> 00:46:54,160
Speaker 1: see it. Let's assume it's six Ers Nets in the

950
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:58,319
Speaker 1: top two. I personally can't see this Raptors team beating

951
00:46:58,360 --> 00:47:00,680
Speaker 1: the Sixers or Nets in a seven year series. I

952
00:47:00,680 --> 00:47:03,200
Speaker 1: can see them being a pain in the ass. I

953
00:47:03,200 --> 00:47:07,520
Speaker 1: can see them absolutely winning the first game causing panic.

954
00:47:07,920 --> 00:47:10,120
Speaker 1: I can see them taking a three to two lead.

955
00:47:10,719 --> 00:47:15,160
Speaker 1: I cannot see them actually beating the Nets or the

956
00:47:15,200 --> 00:47:18,480
Speaker 1: Sixers in the seven game series. They don't have the

957
00:47:18,560 --> 00:47:22,440
Speaker 1: horses to get it done. Like I like that Boston

958
00:47:22,480 --> 00:47:24,680
Speaker 1: team last year, and they couldn't beat that Boston team

959
00:47:24,800 --> 00:47:27,839
Speaker 1: last year. This team is worse than that team last year.

960
00:47:28,200 --> 00:47:31,880
Speaker 1: So for me, I can't see it. Rahiem, who do

961
00:47:31,920 --> 00:47:32,680
Speaker 1: you have six?

962
00:47:34,280 --> 00:47:35,479
Speaker 4: I just made a number for the Hawks.

963
00:47:35,600 --> 00:47:37,280
Speaker 3: I wasn't even thinking about the Hawks, to be honest,

964
00:47:37,600 --> 00:47:39,600
Speaker 3: but I have them.

965
00:47:40,200 --> 00:47:43,319
Speaker 4: I have them plus I'm thirty to one pretty much.

966
00:47:43,520 --> 00:47:45,520
Speaker 3: And when I look at this, I mean, this Hawks

967
00:47:45,560 --> 00:47:47,880
Speaker 3: team is they've been impressive lately. I mean when you

968
00:47:47,880 --> 00:47:49,440
Speaker 3: look at this Hawks team that they've won six in

969
00:47:49,480 --> 00:47:51,719
Speaker 3: a row over the last two weeks, they're you know,

970
00:47:51,800 --> 00:47:55,360
Speaker 3: fourth and offense six and defense. You know, they're getting

971
00:47:55,360 --> 00:47:58,200
Speaker 3: some guys back, but it's just they're not.

972
00:47:58,120 --> 00:48:01,000
Speaker 4: Beating any one of the top four seats. So it's

973
00:48:01,080 --> 00:48:01,479
Speaker 4: just like.

974
00:48:01,400 --> 00:48:03,640
Speaker 3: For me when I look at when I look at

975
00:48:03,680 --> 00:48:07,160
Speaker 3: these odds, I'm trying to entice action from on teams

976
00:48:07,200 --> 00:48:11,200
Speaker 3: that I know won't win. So you know, they're, what,

977
00:48:11,239 --> 00:48:12,880
Speaker 3: are there, one hundred and twenty five to win to

978
00:48:12,920 --> 00:48:14,680
Speaker 3: win the finals, They're forty to one to win the

979
00:48:14,719 --> 00:48:15,600
Speaker 3: conference finals.

980
00:48:16,719 --> 00:48:19,640
Speaker 4: So you know, just by nature this number should be lower.

981
00:48:19,920 --> 00:48:21,799
Speaker 3: But I further I bump it up to you know,

982
00:48:22,080 --> 00:48:24,680
Speaker 3: plus thirty to one and get a little action from

983
00:48:24,680 --> 00:48:28,560
Speaker 3: some Hawks fans. And but they're not beating the Heat,

984
00:48:28,560 --> 00:48:31,560
Speaker 3: they're not beating the sixers, they're not beating the Bucks,

985
00:48:31,600 --> 00:48:31,960
Speaker 3: and they're.

986
00:48:31,840 --> 00:48:32,560
Speaker 4: Not beaten broken.

987
00:48:33,960 --> 00:48:37,560
Speaker 1: I've got the Hornets at thirty to one, so I

988
00:48:37,680 --> 00:48:41,759
Speaker 1: just it's I'm annoyed that they're there. The Hornets have

989
00:48:41,840 --> 00:48:47,439
Speaker 1: cost me so much money this year. If I bet them,

990
00:48:48,280 --> 00:48:52,040
Speaker 1: they have a horrible time. If I fade them, they

991
00:48:52,080 --> 00:48:55,520
Speaker 1: look like world beaters. I hate this team. I hate them.

992
00:48:56,160 --> 00:48:58,880
Speaker 1: I hate really good team. LaMelo ball looks great, Gordon

993
00:48:58,920 --> 00:49:03,840
Speaker 1: Hayward looks great. Cody Zeller's underrated. Love contributors had a

994
00:49:03,880 --> 00:49:05,600
Speaker 1: lot of respect for them. Think the coaching has been

995
00:49:05,640 --> 00:49:09,719
Speaker 1: really solid. Love the franchise. God, they've killed me this year.

996
00:49:10,719 --> 00:49:12,920
Speaker 1: Do either of you have anything else? I assume, Randon,

997
00:49:12,920 --> 00:49:14,160
Speaker 1: the Hornets are not your fifteen.

998
00:49:16,480 --> 00:49:19,440
Speaker 2: The Hornets the Hawks like look to make the conference

999
00:49:19,440 --> 00:49:22,759
Speaker 2: finals in the East, barring a huge injury, you're going

1000
00:49:22,800 --> 00:49:25,640
Speaker 2: to have to beat at least one of the Nuts,

1001
00:49:25,719 --> 00:49:28,359
Speaker 2: the Bucks, or the Sixers. None of these teams are

1002
00:49:28,360 --> 00:49:31,040
Speaker 2: beating them. That's for me. That's why the Raptors were

1003
00:49:31,120 --> 00:49:33,480
Speaker 2: my number six, just because at least I know those

1004
00:49:33,560 --> 00:49:35,520
Speaker 2: guys are gonna stand on a court, look them in

1005
00:49:35,560 --> 00:49:37,840
Speaker 2: the eye, and have a chance. The Hawks and the

1006
00:49:37,880 --> 00:49:40,840
Speaker 2: Hornets don't even show up. Just what are we talking about?

1007
00:49:41,000 --> 00:49:43,920
Speaker 3: The one thing I said, maybe the one thing I'll

1008
00:49:43,920 --> 00:49:46,759
Speaker 3: say about the Hornets is see for me, like when

1009
00:49:46,760 --> 00:49:49,800
Speaker 3: I'm handicamping these games, I really value three point shooting.

1010
00:49:49,840 --> 00:49:52,120
Speaker 3: I mean a lot of times we spoke about the

1011
00:49:52,239 --> 00:49:55,680
Speaker 3: you know, the rapt I mean, excuse me. The Rockets

1012
00:49:55,680 --> 00:49:58,680
Speaker 3: were one of those teams that everybody wanted to bet on.

1013
00:49:58,800 --> 00:50:00,480
Speaker 3: They were a sexy team the last couple of years,

1014
00:50:00,480 --> 00:50:02,760
Speaker 3: and obviously they had James Harden, but a big reason

1015
00:50:02,800 --> 00:50:07,320
Speaker 3: why was because they can. They're three point shooting variants

1016
00:50:07,560 --> 00:50:09,880
Speaker 3: can kind of you know, give them a shot. And

1017
00:50:10,000 --> 00:50:12,360
Speaker 3: I think that's what makes the Hornets, you know, an

1018
00:50:12,360 --> 00:50:15,920
Speaker 3: intriguing team for me this year is that when you

1019
00:50:15,920 --> 00:50:18,880
Speaker 3: look at this horn Iss team, they're they're taking the

1020
00:50:18,920 --> 00:50:22,160
Speaker 3: tenth most threes and they're making them at the fifth

1021
00:50:22,200 --> 00:50:22,840
Speaker 3: highest percentage.

1022
00:50:22,840 --> 00:50:25,360
Speaker 4: They're shooting nearly they're shooting thirty nine percent from three.

1023
00:50:25,680 --> 00:50:27,960
Speaker 3: So when I look at this team on a ninth

1024
00:50:28,000 --> 00:50:29,840
Speaker 3: to night basis, they have a shot against anybody.

1025
00:50:30,360 --> 00:50:33,279
Speaker 4: Now, I agree with you, they're not beating the Heat.

1026
00:50:33,440 --> 00:50:35,200
Speaker 3: They're not beating the Bucks and not beating the Nets

1027
00:50:35,200 --> 00:50:37,719
Speaker 3: and not beating the sixers. But I do think they

1028
00:50:37,719 --> 00:50:41,799
Speaker 3: can push a team in the first round. All right,

1029
00:50:41,880 --> 00:50:43,000
Speaker 3: So Brandon, who's your five?

1030
00:50:44,640 --> 00:50:46,640
Speaker 2: So my five is the Heat I don't know. I

1031
00:50:46,719 --> 00:50:48,920
Speaker 2: keep hearing the Heat with all these really good teams,

1032
00:50:49,200 --> 00:50:50,680
Speaker 2: and I don't know what we're doing here, because like

1033
00:50:50,719 --> 00:50:52,719
Speaker 2: two weeks ago, we were all just ready to dump

1034
00:50:52,719 --> 00:50:54,400
Speaker 2: the Heat and the recycle been and move on with

1035
00:50:54,440 --> 00:50:56,640
Speaker 2: the season. I realized they've been really good for a

1036
00:50:56,680 --> 00:50:58,920
Speaker 2: few weeks with non All Star Jimmy Butler and non

1037
00:50:58,920 --> 00:51:02,239
Speaker 2: all star Bam out of by cooking again. But I

1038
00:51:02,400 --> 00:51:05,440
Speaker 2: just I don't know. Something. Something still didn't feel right

1039
00:51:05,480 --> 00:51:07,560
Speaker 2: about this team. I'm not willing to just change my

1040
00:51:07,680 --> 00:51:10,000
Speaker 2: entire perception of them based on these last two or

1041
00:51:10,000 --> 00:51:13,680
Speaker 2: three weeks here. I just feel like they're not I

1042
00:51:13,680 --> 00:51:15,760
Speaker 2: don't think they're the fourth best team, and the Celtics

1043
00:51:15,760 --> 00:51:17,520
Speaker 2: are a better team when we get to the playoffs

1044
00:51:17,520 --> 00:51:20,920
Speaker 2: and everything gets healthy and right by then, and I

1045
00:51:21,000 --> 00:51:22,759
Speaker 2: the Heat. They're a team that I would have to

1046
00:51:22,760 --> 00:51:25,400
Speaker 2: bump the odds for just because I think that public

1047
00:51:25,400 --> 00:51:28,080
Speaker 2: would probably be playing them. We know they made the finals, run,

1048
00:51:28,120 --> 00:51:31,480
Speaker 2: et cetera, et cetera. My personal odds, I had the

1049
00:51:31,480 --> 00:51:33,919
Speaker 2: Heat at plus twelve hundred, same as the Raptors, which

1050
00:51:34,160 --> 00:51:37,160
Speaker 2: is huge disrespect, I realize, but that's where I have them.

1051
00:51:37,200 --> 00:51:40,200
Speaker 2: I have them at seven percent to make the conference finals.

1052
00:51:42,320 --> 00:51:44,879
Speaker 1: Geez, I thought I was the heat heater.

1053
00:51:45,320 --> 00:51:47,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's very disrespectful.

1054
00:51:47,520 --> 00:51:48,879
Speaker 2: I mean I've been betting on the Heat to miss

1055
00:51:48,920 --> 00:51:50,760
Speaker 2: the playoffs and from the start.

1056
00:51:50,560 --> 00:51:54,320
Speaker 1: Of the Yeah, I'll give you that. Brandon, You're consistent.

1057
00:51:56,560 --> 00:51:59,160
Speaker 1: We can do heat. We can do heat right now, raheem,

1058
00:51:59,280 --> 00:51:59,960
Speaker 1: where have you got the heat?

1059
00:52:00,719 --> 00:52:02,040
Speaker 4: I got the met plus five hundred.

1060
00:52:02,680 --> 00:52:04,280
Speaker 3: I mean when I when I look at this team,

1061
00:52:05,440 --> 00:52:09,759
Speaker 3: to me, they're they're winning off defense right now, so

1062
00:52:10,760 --> 00:52:13,000
Speaker 3: and the offense really hasn't even gotten going yet.

1063
00:52:13,120 --> 00:52:14,759
Speaker 4: So when the offense gets going, I mean when you

1064
00:52:14,760 --> 00:52:15,080
Speaker 4: look at.

1065
00:52:15,040 --> 00:52:17,880
Speaker 3: That, I mean pretty much all of their shooters have regressed,

1066
00:52:18,600 --> 00:52:23,560
Speaker 3: Tyler Harrow, Duncan Robinson, Kelly o'lennock. I mean, obviously they

1067
00:52:23,680 --> 00:52:25,799
Speaker 3: lost Jay Crowder, which is you know, is really going

1068
00:52:25,880 --> 00:52:26,560
Speaker 3: to impact them.

1069
00:52:26,760 --> 00:52:29,440
Speaker 4: But I can't I can't set this any lower than that.

1070
00:52:29,480 --> 00:52:31,799
Speaker 3: When I look at the finals eyes, they're thirty to

1071
00:52:31,880 --> 00:52:34,839
Speaker 3: one conference size, they're thirteen thirteen to one. I think

1072
00:52:35,000 --> 00:52:36,840
Speaker 3: they have a good chance of making the conference finals.

1073
00:52:36,920 --> 00:52:39,759
Speaker 3: I mean right now they're they're the fourth seed, and

1074
00:52:40,960 --> 00:52:43,399
Speaker 3: who knows what's gonna happen. I mean in the second round.

1075
00:52:43,400 --> 00:52:46,040
Speaker 3: They be slated to face Philly, and I think Philly

1076
00:52:46,040 --> 00:52:49,000
Speaker 3: would be favorites, but you always got to worry about

1077
00:52:49,000 --> 00:52:50,200
Speaker 3: an injury to Joel mb.

1078
00:52:51,640 --> 00:52:53,520
Speaker 4: That's that's a game change, and I kind of want

1079
00:52:53,520 --> 00:52:55,840
Speaker 4: to price that in to a certain extent.

1080
00:52:57,040 --> 00:52:59,280
Speaker 3: So I think plus five hundred is the right number

1081
00:52:59,280 --> 00:53:00,640
Speaker 3: that gives them.

1082
00:53:00,680 --> 00:53:07,440
Speaker 4: What is that that's probably I got through a math when.

1083
00:53:08,560 --> 00:53:10,720
Speaker 1: That's sixteen points sixty seven percent implied.

1084
00:53:11,360 --> 00:53:13,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, Like I can live with that. I think I

1085
00:53:13,719 --> 00:53:15,560
Speaker 3: think they have a sixteen percent chance of you know,

1086
00:53:15,600 --> 00:53:17,960
Speaker 3: making the Conference. Mind, because it's really the second series.

1087
00:53:18,040 --> 00:53:20,480
Speaker 3: Can they beat the Sixers and can they beat the Bucks?

1088
00:53:20,680 --> 00:53:23,520
Speaker 1: So I've got it at so one of the reason

1089
00:53:23,520 --> 00:53:25,560
Speaker 1: the books don't offer this is because of the uncertainty, right,

1090
00:53:25,560 --> 00:53:28,000
Speaker 1: which is baked into a like where I tried to

1091
00:53:28,000 --> 00:53:30,440
Speaker 1: put these numbers bat was like the uncertainty of a

1092
00:53:30,440 --> 00:53:32,440
Speaker 1: lot of the matchups and things like that. So I've

1093
00:53:32,480 --> 00:53:36,080
Speaker 1: got them extremely low. So versus Brandon, who has them

1094
00:53:36,080 --> 00:53:39,240
Speaker 1: at plus twelve hundred, I have them at plus two thirty.

1095
00:53:40,800 --> 00:53:42,799
Speaker 1: I think there's a thirty percent chance they get out.

1096
00:53:43,400 --> 00:53:45,120
Speaker 1: Like I think there's a thirty percent chance. I think

1097
00:53:45,160 --> 00:53:48,120
Speaker 1: one out of three times they beat two teams. Look

1098
00:53:48,640 --> 00:53:51,880
Speaker 1: if if they wind up in the sixth seed and

1099
00:53:51,920 --> 00:53:57,640
Speaker 1: they face Milwaukee, are you betting Milwaukee? I'm not. I'll

1100
00:53:57,680 --> 00:54:01,000
Speaker 1: probably pass. I'm betting that Sea and be sad that

1101
00:54:01,000 --> 00:54:03,160
Speaker 1: I get. No, that's not true. I'm a degenerate, and

1102
00:54:03,200 --> 00:54:06,200
Speaker 1: we'll wind up betting that series somehow. But like you know,

1103
00:54:06,719 --> 00:54:10,920
Speaker 1: if they wind up versus Philly and it's embiid versus

1104
00:54:11,000 --> 00:54:18,319
Speaker 1: BAM and Butler versus his former teammates, that makes me nervous.

1105
00:54:18,960 --> 00:54:22,120
Speaker 1: If it's SPO that gets an entire series to figure

1106
00:54:22,120 --> 00:54:29,320
Speaker 1: out doc and a pretty basic offense, that makes me nervous.

1107
00:54:29,800 --> 00:54:32,919
Speaker 1: If it's the Nets, a team that basically it's like, look,

1108
00:54:33,160 --> 00:54:35,320
Speaker 1: they're gonna have a lot of firepower. You're gonna have

1109
00:54:35,400 --> 00:54:37,440
Speaker 1: to match them with shooting, and you're gonna have to

1110
00:54:37,480 --> 00:54:41,440
Speaker 1: have some tricks up your sleeve defensively. That's what Miami is.

1111
00:54:42,440 --> 00:54:47,160
Speaker 1: So I'm not putting it any longer because I think

1112
00:54:47,160 --> 00:54:49,480
Speaker 1: the liability is too great for the odds of it happening,

1113
00:54:49,760 --> 00:54:51,520
Speaker 1: like at two thirty. If I don't get here's what

1114
00:54:51,600 --> 00:54:53,640
Speaker 1: I'll tell you this. If I don't get any action

1115
00:54:53,719 --> 00:54:57,200
Speaker 1: at two thirty on Miami, I'm fine. I'm okay with you.

1116
00:54:58,000 --> 00:55:01,319
Speaker 1: I'm all right, that's fine with me. So that's where

1117
00:55:01,320 --> 00:55:01,640
Speaker 1: I've got.

1118
00:55:01,960 --> 00:55:04,439
Speaker 3: I kind of like your number a little bit better.

1119
00:55:04,480 --> 00:55:05,840
Speaker 3: I kind of want to I kind of want to

1120
00:55:05,880 --> 00:55:07,480
Speaker 3: move towards your number a little bit more. I would

1121
00:55:07,480 --> 00:55:12,120
Speaker 3: probably go, you know, probably like three fifty four. No,

1122
00:55:12,239 --> 00:55:15,040
Speaker 3: because it's making too much sense. And honestly, the Heat

1123
00:55:15,120 --> 00:55:16,800
Speaker 3: or one of those teams that I came into the

1124
00:55:16,840 --> 00:55:18,680
Speaker 3: All Star breaking and saying, look, I'm going to be

1125
00:55:18,680 --> 00:55:19,839
Speaker 3: betting them for the rest of the year.

1126
00:55:19,960 --> 00:55:20,240
Speaker 5: Yeah.

1127
00:55:20,320 --> 00:55:22,279
Speaker 3: And if I'm gonna be betting in for the rest

1128
00:55:22,280 --> 00:55:23,880
Speaker 3: of the year, that means they're gonna have some momentum

1129
00:55:23,920 --> 00:55:25,080
Speaker 3: going to the playoffs.

1130
00:55:25,640 --> 00:55:26,239
Speaker 4: I'm with you.

1131
00:55:27,280 --> 00:55:30,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just for me, this is my team in

1132
00:55:30,880 --> 00:55:34,480
Speaker 2: the East that I'm looking to. Just bring me the money,

1133
00:55:34,480 --> 00:55:37,360
Speaker 2: bring the bats. I want the money, I want the liability.

1134
00:55:37,440 --> 00:55:39,480
Speaker 2: I don't think the Heat are getting there. I wouldn't

1135
00:55:39,600 --> 00:55:41,600
Speaker 2: set the line at twelve hundred. If thatlls a book,

1136
00:55:41,600 --> 00:55:44,120
Speaker 2: that's my line, but I would send it a number

1137
00:55:44,160 --> 00:55:47,000
Speaker 2: to entice money to come in. I think last year

1138
00:55:47,080 --> 00:55:50,520
Speaker 2: was last year. Everything set up perfectly. The matchups broke,

1139
00:55:50,600 --> 00:55:54,240
Speaker 2: the injuries broke it was the bubble. It was great.

1140
00:55:54,680 --> 00:55:56,920
Speaker 2: This is a new year. I just don't think it's happening.

1141
00:55:57,440 --> 00:56:00,760
Speaker 2: You said, Matt, you have them around thirty plush percent

1142
00:56:00,840 --> 00:56:03,040
Speaker 2: to make the conference finals some about where I have

1143
00:56:03,120 --> 00:56:04,799
Speaker 2: them to make it out of the first round. I

1144
00:56:04,880 --> 00:56:07,879
Speaker 2: just don't see them winning two series. I don't see

1145
00:56:07,880 --> 00:56:09,080
Speaker 2: it happening. I want the money.

1146
00:56:09,280 --> 00:56:10,719
Speaker 1: I'm excited for this. This is gonna be great. This

1147
00:56:10,840 --> 00:56:12,120
Speaker 1: is gonna be so much, so much fun when the

1148
00:56:12,120 --> 00:56:16,040
Speaker 1: playoffs start in sixty one days, sixty days, when you're

1149
00:56:16,040 --> 00:56:20,720
Speaker 1: listening to this on Friday, let's go to well, all right, Brandon,

1150
00:56:20,840 --> 00:56:24,160
Speaker 1: we're missing a team here. Since I got like, who

1151
00:56:24,200 --> 00:56:25,240
Speaker 1: who's the missing team?

1152
00:56:25,840 --> 00:56:28,680
Speaker 2: Boston, Selies, Boston. It's got to be Boston, all right?

1153
00:56:28,760 --> 00:56:31,359
Speaker 1: So what do you got bought? Real quickly, go through

1154
00:56:31,400 --> 00:56:32,799
Speaker 1: this real quickly. What do you have Boston at?

1155
00:56:32,880 --> 00:56:33,120
Speaker 6: Yeah?

1156
00:56:33,160 --> 00:56:36,800
Speaker 2: So I have Boston at plus seven to fifty because

1157
00:56:37,280 --> 00:56:39,800
Speaker 2: I think Boston. I think it's Boston Miami in the

1158
00:56:39,800 --> 00:56:41,960
Speaker 2: four or five. It just seems like we're headed that way.

1159
00:56:42,000 --> 00:56:44,080
Speaker 2: I don't know who else is getting in there. There

1160
00:56:44,120 --> 00:56:46,520
Speaker 2: were Charlotte or whoever. Come on, they're not sneaking up

1161
00:56:46,520 --> 00:56:48,919
Speaker 2: to the four or five seed. I like Boston better

1162
00:56:48,920 --> 00:56:51,440
Speaker 2: than the matchup, and I feel like they're gonna have

1163
00:56:51,480 --> 00:56:54,279
Speaker 2: a good shot at against a one seed. They're just

1164
00:56:54,280 --> 00:56:56,520
Speaker 2: they're a team that's gonna show up. I still believe

1165
00:56:56,560 --> 00:56:59,360
Speaker 2: in Brad Stevens. I still like their matchup ability and

1166
00:56:59,400 --> 00:57:02,040
Speaker 2: there they got guys are gonna hit shots in a playoffs.

1167
00:57:02,480 --> 00:57:04,360
Speaker 2: They're just a team that I think they have a

1168
00:57:04,360 --> 00:57:06,680
Speaker 2: shot outside of the top three. They're the team that

1169
00:57:06,719 --> 00:57:09,520
Speaker 2: I think is most likely to crack into the conference finals.

1170
00:57:10,760 --> 00:57:13,359
Speaker 1: The biggest reason that I would go against you here

1171
00:57:14,080 --> 00:57:19,520
Speaker 1: is the entire tone of this year for that team

1172
00:57:19,880 --> 00:57:23,720
Speaker 1: is we just don't have it. Like Danny Ainge just

1173
00:57:23,760 --> 00:57:27,680
Speaker 1: said on radio, this is not a championship contender. Tatum's

1174
00:57:27,720 --> 00:57:29,880
Speaker 1: admitted that it's been really hard coming back from COVID.

1175
00:57:30,600 --> 00:57:33,480
Speaker 1: The roster has like they've been frustrated with how they've played.

1176
00:57:33,960 --> 00:57:36,800
Speaker 1: Camba just has not looked. I'll put it this way.

1177
00:57:37,640 --> 00:57:40,560
Speaker 1: Last night was a good example of this. The Cavs

1178
00:57:40,640 --> 00:57:42,480
Speaker 1: come out and they play lights out and they're like

1179
00:57:42,560 --> 00:57:46,200
Speaker 1: they show up. Usually when you're when the Celtics are

1180
00:57:46,240 --> 00:57:50,120
Speaker 1: against a bad team that gives you effort, the Celtics

1181
00:57:50,120 --> 00:57:52,800
Speaker 1: screw around and then buckle down and make a strong

1182
00:57:52,840 --> 00:57:55,160
Speaker 1: comeback based off of their effort. They play with a

1183
00:57:55,160 --> 00:57:57,920
Speaker 1: lot of pride. Boston has not played with a lot

1184
00:57:57,920 --> 00:58:00,560
Speaker 1: of pride this year, and that makes me a little

1185
00:58:00,600 --> 00:58:03,520
Speaker 1: nervous about them. I think that, like this is a

1186
00:58:03,600 --> 00:58:05,840
Speaker 1: very ephemeral thing. I do not have a lot of

1187
00:58:05,880 --> 00:58:09,640
Speaker 1: confidence in their mental toughness to make a playoff run.

1188
00:58:10,600 --> 00:58:12,480
Speaker 4: And that that mean they got it. They got a

1189
00:58:12,480 --> 00:58:13,240
Speaker 4: couple of tough wins.

1190
00:58:13,240 --> 00:58:16,200
Speaker 3: They got they got to win against the Wizards a

1191
00:58:16,240 --> 00:58:19,920
Speaker 3: couple of weeks back when Bradley Bell stepped out of

1192
00:58:19,960 --> 00:58:21,400
Speaker 3: bounds the Sunday night game.

1193
00:58:21,840 --> 00:58:23,000
Speaker 4: They I mean, they have a few.

1194
00:58:23,720 --> 00:58:25,680
Speaker 3: I think they have enough to where I still have

1195
00:58:25,720 --> 00:58:28,640
Speaker 3: to give them a little bit of a respect. They

1196
00:58:28,640 --> 00:58:33,160
Speaker 3: still have Jason Tatum and and and Jalen Brown, which is,

1197
00:58:33,240 --> 00:58:34,800
Speaker 3: you know, two of the top wings in the league.

1198
00:58:36,120 --> 00:58:38,920
Speaker 3: Smart has been hurt, kim Bus has been hurt. I

1199
00:58:38,920 --> 00:58:40,960
Speaker 3: don't want to set this number too high because I

1200
00:58:41,120 --> 00:58:46,200
Speaker 3: just you'll take money. Yeah, yeah, it's it's They kind

1201
00:58:46,200 --> 00:58:48,120
Speaker 3: of remind me of like the ninety nine.

1202
00:58:48,040 --> 00:58:51,360
Speaker 1: Knicks almost all right. I like to comparison with the

1203
00:58:51,440 --> 00:58:52,680
Speaker 1: with the shortened season. I like that.

1204
00:58:53,040 --> 00:58:55,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, So It's just like I kind of I'm going

1205
00:58:55,920 --> 00:58:57,160
Speaker 3: under where I had Miami.

1206
00:58:57,200 --> 00:58:57,720
Speaker 4: I think I'm.

1207
00:58:57,560 --> 00:59:02,040
Speaker 3: Gonna go, like i'd say, plus plus four hundred, just

1208
00:59:02,040 --> 00:59:03,280
Speaker 3: because I gotta give this team.

1209
00:59:03,320 --> 00:59:05,960
Speaker 4: This team has made the conference finals. Actually I want

1210
00:59:05,960 --> 00:59:06,120
Speaker 4: to go.

1211
00:59:06,240 --> 00:59:07,840
Speaker 3: I want to go plus three fifty, but they just

1212
00:59:07,880 --> 00:59:09,600
Speaker 3: haven't been very good this year, and like you said,

1213
00:59:09,600 --> 00:59:13,320
Speaker 3: they don't have it. They don't really have The bench

1214
00:59:13,360 --> 00:59:16,600
Speaker 3: is horrible. And then also I don't I think Brad

1215
00:59:16,600 --> 00:59:17,120
Speaker 3: Stevens is.

1216
00:59:17,080 --> 00:59:24,000
Speaker 4: The playing Robert Williams. Enough, right, I've got fifty. I'm

1217
00:59:24,040 --> 00:59:24,400
Speaker 4: gonna move.

1218
00:59:24,400 --> 00:59:25,640
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna give a number on the on the

1219
00:59:25,640 --> 00:59:31,160
Speaker 1: Celtics right now, but on the Bucks, I've got them.

1220
00:59:31,560 --> 00:59:33,280
Speaker 1: I've got the Clippers at plus one hundred, I've got

1221
00:59:33,320 --> 00:59:34,840
Speaker 1: the Bucks at plus one hundred, so i've got them

1222
00:59:34,840 --> 00:59:38,240
Speaker 1: an even I still want to give their the Bucks

1223
00:59:38,360 --> 00:59:41,160
Speaker 1: enough respect to say, yeah, they can absolutely make it

1224
00:59:41,240 --> 00:59:44,560
Speaker 1: like that if they don't run into the nightmare matchup.

1225
00:59:45,280 --> 00:59:47,680
Speaker 1: They've shown enough that they're willing to do defensive stuff

1226
00:59:47,720 --> 00:59:50,160
Speaker 1: like a lot. This is one of my things is, yes,

1227
00:59:50,560 --> 00:59:53,320
Speaker 1: the losses have been embarrassing, they've also ran into the

1228
00:59:53,360 --> 00:59:56,680
Speaker 1: worst team at the worst time with guys that have

1229
00:59:56,720 --> 00:59:59,680
Speaker 1: shot the lights out in Jay Crowder and Fred van

1230
00:59:59,720 --> 01:00:03,080
Speaker 1: Vliet like that stuff that happened. Yes, there are structural

1231
01:00:03,120 --> 01:00:06,240
Speaker 1: problems with the way that the Bucks are built. There's

1232
01:00:06,240 --> 01:00:09,120
Speaker 1: structural problems with the way that almost every team is built.

1233
01:00:09,400 --> 01:00:12,440
Speaker 1: So like the fact that Milwaukee has failed in the

1234
01:00:12,480 --> 01:00:15,920
Speaker 1: way that it has to me is less about a

1235
01:00:16,000 --> 01:00:19,000
Speaker 1: deep underpinning in who they are. I think that they've

1236
01:00:19,000 --> 01:00:20,960
Speaker 1: got a chemistry. I think they rely on each other.

1237
01:00:21,160 --> 01:00:25,480
Speaker 1: I think that Yannis, like Yannis at least gives awesome

1238
01:00:25,520 --> 01:00:28,120
Speaker 1: effort when he goes down. I don't ever like walk

1239
01:00:28,160 --> 01:00:33,280
Speaker 1: out going Yannis quit. They have shooters, they've got defense.

1240
01:00:33,640 --> 01:00:33,960
Speaker 5: PJ.

1241
01:00:34,040 --> 01:00:36,080
Speaker 1: Tucker gives them a small ball option at five. They

1242
01:00:36,080 --> 01:00:39,480
Speaker 1: could space the floor. It's not like a huge differential

1243
01:00:39,520 --> 01:00:41,360
Speaker 1: to me, but it's enough to be like, they can

1244
01:00:41,440 --> 01:00:44,160
Speaker 1: do a bunch of stuff. Bud has shown that he's

1245
01:00:44,200 --> 01:00:46,280
Speaker 1: willing to do a bunch of different stuff. I'm not

1246
01:00:46,320 --> 01:00:48,880
Speaker 1: willing to make Milwaukee the favorite. I'm not willing to

1247
01:00:48,880 --> 01:00:50,880
Speaker 1: put a minus number on Milwaukee, but I am going

1248
01:00:50,960 --> 01:00:52,920
Speaker 1: to put them at plus one hundred to make the

1249
01:00:52,920 --> 01:00:55,160
Speaker 1: conference finals. I think they have a fifty percent shot

1250
01:00:55,160 --> 01:00:58,240
Speaker 1: of getting there with a little bit of standings uncertainty

1251
01:00:58,240 --> 01:01:02,440
Speaker 1: built in, and let's go for him.

1252
01:01:02,640 --> 01:01:04,440
Speaker 3: I think one of the things that you know, actually

1253
01:01:04,480 --> 01:01:06,240
Speaker 3: good about this year's Bucks team is they don't have

1254
01:01:06,240 --> 01:01:08,600
Speaker 3: a lot of death, so Bud is actually going to

1255
01:01:08,680 --> 01:01:12,280
Speaker 3: be forced to play Gianni's big minutes unlike previous years.

1256
01:01:13,080 --> 01:01:14,320
Speaker 4: I had plus one twenty five.

1257
01:01:14,920 --> 01:01:17,440
Speaker 1: Okay, that sounds good, Brandon, what you.

1258
01:01:17,400 --> 01:01:21,040
Speaker 2: Got so I have a minus one fifty. I do

1259
01:01:21,080 --> 01:01:23,600
Speaker 2: think that they should be slightly favored here. I think

1260
01:01:23,680 --> 01:01:26,240
Speaker 2: that I think Milwaukee has the best shot at getting

1261
01:01:26,240 --> 01:01:28,280
Speaker 2: to the one seed, which is a huge advantage in

1262
01:01:28,320 --> 01:01:30,640
Speaker 2: the East. You get a way easier first round matchup

1263
01:01:30,720 --> 01:01:32,600
Speaker 2: and you only have to be one of those top

1264
01:01:32,640 --> 01:01:35,440
Speaker 2: three teams to make the conference finals. So I'm praising

1265
01:01:35,480 --> 01:01:39,360
Speaker 2: that in a little bit. I'm not that excited about PJ. Tucker.

1266
01:01:39,960 --> 01:01:42,600
Speaker 2: You guys, remember back in the nineties when there was

1267
01:01:42,640 --> 01:01:44,720
Speaker 2: a fad for a while, you go to the store.

1268
01:01:45,200 --> 01:01:47,480
Speaker 2: You could buy a brand new pair of blue jeans

1269
01:01:47,760 --> 01:01:51,800
Speaker 2: that had like holes built into it and tattered, and

1270
01:01:51,840 --> 01:01:53,960
Speaker 2: it was all like washed out and ready to go,

1271
01:01:54,040 --> 01:01:56,920
Speaker 2: and you paid extra to get it. That's PJ Talker,

1272
01:01:57,240 --> 01:02:01,120
Speaker 2: That's what just happened. We got a washed, tattered PJ

1273
01:02:01,320 --> 01:02:03,800
Speaker 2: Tucker and the Bucks paid extra to get him. What

1274
01:02:03,840 --> 01:02:05,520
Speaker 2: are we doing? I don't even want him out there

1275
01:02:05,600 --> 01:02:08,480
Speaker 2: in the final five. I like the other guys they

1276
01:02:08,480 --> 01:02:12,720
Speaker 2: have better when in most matchups, but I like Giannis,

1277
01:02:12,760 --> 01:02:15,760
Speaker 2: I like Drew Holliday's He's the huge difference for this

1278
01:02:15,840 --> 01:02:18,600
Speaker 2: team from last playoff teams that they've had. We've known

1279
01:02:18,600 --> 01:02:22,280
Speaker 2: that all year. I think you'll hear in Asaki and

1280
01:02:22,320 --> 01:02:25,200
Speaker 2: I'm fading the Sixers here. I just think Nets A

1281
01:02:25,240 --> 01:02:29,560
Speaker 2: Bucks is overwhelmingly the likely Eastern Conference finals that we're getting.

1282
01:02:29,600 --> 01:02:31,760
Speaker 2: So that's why I have the Bucks as a favorite here.

1283
01:02:32,120 --> 01:02:32,760
Speaker 1: What's the number?

1284
01:02:33,480 --> 01:02:35,080
Speaker 2: I have them at minus one fifty?

1285
01:02:35,360 --> 01:02:39,480
Speaker 1: Okay, oh all right, well let's just let's say the

1286
01:02:39,560 --> 01:02:44,120
Speaker 1: nets for last six Ers give me the Sixers speech, Brandon.

1287
01:02:45,600 --> 01:02:48,560
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean we've done the Sixers speech for like

1288
01:02:48,560 --> 01:02:50,680
Speaker 2: a month in a row now. So I just I

1289
01:02:51,000 --> 01:02:53,840
Speaker 2: feel like, of the three teams in the East, I

1290
01:02:53,880 --> 01:02:56,360
Speaker 2: think that they are the most out of the top three,

1291
01:02:56,400 --> 01:02:58,880
Speaker 2: they're the most likely to not get the one seed.

1292
01:02:58,920 --> 01:03:01,000
Speaker 2: To me, I know that they're there, they've been there,

1293
01:03:01,360 --> 01:03:03,600
Speaker 2: but with that Joel and beat injury, I just don't

1294
01:03:03,640 --> 01:03:07,560
Speaker 2: see it. Happening. So now, of those three teams, they're

1295
01:03:07,600 --> 01:03:10,520
Speaker 2: the one who most likely has to beat beat one

1296
01:03:10,560 --> 01:03:13,080
Speaker 2: of the other ones just to make the conference finals.

1297
01:03:13,440 --> 01:03:15,800
Speaker 2: So Philly has to get through the Nets or the

1298
01:03:15,840 --> 01:03:17,800
Speaker 2: Bucks to make the conference finals, and one of those

1299
01:03:17,840 --> 01:03:20,640
Speaker 2: other teams is not going to have to and for

1300
01:03:20,680 --> 01:03:23,240
Speaker 2: that reason, just because of how the bracket breaks in.

1301
01:03:23,360 --> 01:03:25,880
Speaker 2: Because I still don't know if I trust the health

1302
01:03:25,880 --> 01:03:28,280
Speaker 2: of this team. I still don't know if I just

1303
01:03:29,080 --> 01:03:30,600
Speaker 2: I don't know if this team is built to win

1304
01:03:30,680 --> 01:03:33,480
Speaker 2: playoff games. I still think that they can run into

1305
01:03:33,520 --> 01:03:36,160
Speaker 2: the wrong series, Like if they play Boston or play

1306
01:03:36,160 --> 01:03:38,240
Speaker 2: in Miami. I just think that's a dogfight. I think

1307
01:03:38,280 --> 01:03:40,680
Speaker 2: it's going to be a close matchup. So I had

1308
01:03:40,760 --> 01:03:42,920
Speaker 2: Philly personally, I would not price it this way to

1309
01:03:42,960 --> 01:03:45,200
Speaker 2: let people put money on it. But I only as

1310
01:03:45,400 --> 01:03:47,120
Speaker 2: thirty three percent to get through. So i've them at

1311
01:03:47,200 --> 01:03:49,440
Speaker 2: plus two hundred to make the conference finals.

1312
01:03:49,760 --> 01:03:53,320
Speaker 1: Wow, okay, raheem, what do you got, Vilia?

1313
01:03:53,560 --> 01:03:55,280
Speaker 4: Exactly where I at the man, I'm not having a

1314
01:03:55,320 --> 01:04:00,600
Speaker 4: plus two hundred as well. I just I think I've

1315
01:04:00,600 --> 01:04:01,960
Speaker 4: been juicing every single team.

1316
01:04:02,440 --> 01:04:04,720
Speaker 3: I had the Bucks a plus one twenty five, and

1317
01:04:04,760 --> 01:04:08,560
Speaker 3: that also had you know, the heat and like plus

1318
01:04:09,040 --> 01:04:11,680
Speaker 3: five hundred. So I just think it's it's it's it's

1319
01:04:11,760 --> 01:04:14,560
Speaker 3: right or wrong where I won it. And I just

1320
01:04:14,560 --> 01:04:17,480
Speaker 3: think the mb injury really hurts. I mean, I think

1321
01:04:18,120 --> 01:04:19,760
Speaker 3: I think they have a good shot, but I think

1322
01:04:20,080 --> 01:04:20,600
Speaker 3: plus two.

1323
01:04:20,560 --> 01:04:21,480
Speaker 4: Hundred is the right number.

1324
01:04:22,480 --> 01:04:25,320
Speaker 1: I've got them. I've got the Sixers minus one fifty.

1325
01:04:25,960 --> 01:04:28,360
Speaker 1: I think that they're very good. I think they're very balanced.

1326
01:04:28,440 --> 01:04:30,640
Speaker 1: I think that they have the defense. I think that

1327
01:04:30,640 --> 01:04:33,160
Speaker 1: they have the shooting. I think they that Simmons and

1328
01:04:33,280 --> 01:04:36,000
Speaker 1: beat are phenomenal. I think mbat's playing better this year. Look,

1329
01:04:36,000 --> 01:04:38,240
Speaker 1: I think there's a I'm gonna be looking for opportunities,

1330
01:04:38,240 --> 01:04:40,440
Speaker 1: probably to get for them to get snake bit. For sure,

1331
01:04:41,240 --> 01:04:45,440
Speaker 1: the Milwaukee possibility upset like it is concerning, but there's

1332
01:04:45,480 --> 01:04:47,200
Speaker 1: also pretty good chance that the Sixers hold onto the

1333
01:04:47,240 --> 01:04:49,200
Speaker 1: one seed, and much like the Jazz like, if they

1334
01:04:49,200 --> 01:04:51,000
Speaker 1: hold on the one seed, like I feel a lot

1335
01:04:51,000 --> 01:04:52,880
Speaker 1: better about facing the four or five in the East

1336
01:04:52,960 --> 01:04:54,640
Speaker 1: than they do about the the other one. Like I'm

1337
01:04:54,960 --> 01:04:57,000
Speaker 1: you know, Miami could knock them off, but I'm not

1338
01:04:57,400 --> 01:04:59,520
Speaker 1: like the Sixers would be heavily favored for good reason,

1339
01:04:59,680 --> 01:05:03,440
Speaker 1: so I will put them minus one fifty. Finally, Brooklyn,

1340
01:05:04,120 --> 01:05:06,360
Speaker 1: I have the Nets at minus one twenty five. I

1341
01:05:06,760 --> 01:05:08,960
Speaker 1: you know, Brooklyn, that may I may honestly have to

1342
01:05:08,960 --> 01:05:11,520
Speaker 1: bump that number just because it does feel more and

1343
01:05:11,560 --> 01:05:13,160
Speaker 1: more like they're just like the best playoff teams. So

1344
01:05:13,160 --> 01:05:15,920
Speaker 1: I think I'm probably gonna bump them up upwards of

1345
01:05:16,320 --> 01:05:20,960
Speaker 1: minus two hundred, because there's just like, like, are the

1346
01:05:21,000 --> 01:05:22,880
Speaker 1: Sixers really gonna beat the you know it was if

1347
01:05:22,880 --> 01:05:26,120
Speaker 1: it was Sixers nets? Like, are the Sixers really gonna

1348
01:05:26,120 --> 01:05:28,240
Speaker 1: be the beat the Nets? If it's Bucks nets? Are

1349
01:05:28,240 --> 01:05:29,600
Speaker 1: the Bucks really gonna beat the Nets?

1350
01:05:30,040 --> 01:05:30,120
Speaker 4: Like?

1351
01:05:30,480 --> 01:05:33,080
Speaker 1: These are tough questions I think to get to because

1352
01:05:33,080 --> 01:05:35,120
Speaker 1: of how much talent they have and what they've shown already.

1353
01:05:36,280 --> 01:05:38,000
Speaker 1: But I've got them a mius one twenty five right now,

1354
01:05:38,040 --> 01:05:40,360
Speaker 1: I raheem. I assume you've got them somewhere in the

1355
01:05:40,400 --> 01:05:45,440
Speaker 1: Lakers range. Yeah, what higher?

1356
01:05:45,600 --> 01:05:46,000
Speaker 4: Higher?

1357
01:05:46,360 --> 01:05:47,040
Speaker 1: What's the number?

1358
01:05:47,240 --> 01:05:48,760
Speaker 4: Yeah? Minus four hundred?

1359
01:05:49,200 --> 01:05:52,320
Speaker 1: Whoa, okay, all right, Brandon, what's your number on the

1360
01:05:52,440 --> 01:05:53,080
Speaker 1: on the nets?

1361
01:05:53,400 --> 01:05:55,800
Speaker 2: That's exactly where I have a minus four hundred ninety

1362
01:05:55,800 --> 01:05:58,160
Speaker 2: five percent first round, eighty five percent second around that.

1363
01:05:58,320 --> 01:06:00,240
Speaker 2: To me, that was my key takeaway from doing this

1364
01:06:00,440 --> 01:06:02,560
Speaker 2: is just when it gets to the playoffs, and now

1365
01:06:02,640 --> 01:06:05,800
Speaker 2: Kevin Durant is back and James Harden and Kyrie Irving.

1366
01:06:06,280 --> 01:06:09,040
Speaker 2: Holy crap, who's beating this team? Nobody in the first

1367
01:06:09,040 --> 01:06:11,120
Speaker 2: two rounds. I don't see it happening. I had them

1368
01:06:11,120 --> 01:06:14,040
Speaker 2: at minus four hundred. I don't want any money coming

1369
01:06:14,040 --> 01:06:16,560
Speaker 2: out of this. I don't want any liability here. Stay away,

1370
01:06:16,640 --> 01:06:18,240
Speaker 2: keep your money at home. I don't want it.

1371
01:06:19,880 --> 01:06:23,480
Speaker 6: The Action Network podcast talks a lot about finding an edge,

1372
01:06:23,720 --> 01:06:27,320
Speaker 6: putting the work in, finding opportunities and betting on them.

1373
01:06:27,480 --> 01:06:29,720
Speaker 6: And one easy way to lose your edge is to

1374
01:06:29,720 --> 01:06:33,840
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1375
01:06:33,880 --> 01:06:36,200
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1376
01:06:36,280 --> 01:06:39,880
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1377
01:06:39,960 --> 01:06:43,240
Speaker 6: Bill and John, who loved craft beer but realized the

1378
01:06:43,240 --> 01:06:47,400
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1379
01:06:47,880 --> 01:06:50,800
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1380
01:06:50,800 --> 01:06:54,280
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1381
01:06:54,320 --> 01:06:57,840
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1382
01:06:57,880 --> 01:07:01,120
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1383
01:07:01,160 --> 01:07:03,560
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1384
01:07:03,600 --> 01:07:06,960
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1385
01:07:06,960 --> 01:07:10,440
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1386
01:07:10,440 --> 01:07:13,280
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1387
01:07:13,400 --> 01:07:16,320
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1388
01:07:16,480 --> 01:07:20,680
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1389
01:07:20,720 --> 01:07:23,280
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1390
01:07:23,360 --> 01:07:27,000
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1391
01:07:27,120 --> 01:07:29,960
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1392
01:07:30,040 --> 01:07:34,280
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1393
01:07:34,720 --> 01:07:35,880
Speaker 6: Now back to the show.

1394
01:07:36,800 --> 01:07:39,000
Speaker 1: Okay, Now for our pick segment, Rahiem and I are

1395
01:07:39,000 --> 01:07:41,760
Speaker 1: going to go over Friday slates and give you some picks.

1396
01:07:42,720 --> 01:07:45,560
Speaker 2: Dig In certainly does look delicious.

1397
01:07:45,800 --> 01:07:49,440
Speaker 4: It's those NBA buffet chew and swallow no.

1398
01:07:49,480 --> 01:07:52,400
Speaker 1: Savoring, Raheem, what's a big pick for Friday? All right?

1399
01:07:53,200 --> 01:07:55,960
Speaker 3: I gotta be honest. I had about four picks ready

1400
01:07:57,160 --> 01:07:59,600
Speaker 3: in every single pick move. I had the under to

1401
01:07:59,600 --> 01:08:01,960
Speaker 3: sixteen in the Spurs game, at the under two seventeen

1402
01:08:02,360 --> 01:08:05,920
Speaker 3: in the Rockets game under to twenty eight. All of

1403
01:08:05,960 --> 01:08:08,480
Speaker 3: those have moved, you know, four or five points. So

1404
01:08:08,520 --> 01:08:11,320
Speaker 3: I got this last pick. I'm gonna go with the

1405
01:08:11,400 --> 01:08:16,400
Speaker 3: over two fifteen in the Miami Heat Indianapolis Paper Indiana

1406
01:08:16,439 --> 01:08:21,639
Speaker 3: Pacers game. You know, when I look at these two teams, you.

1407
01:08:21,600 --> 01:08:23,920
Speaker 4: Know, it's not really a model play for me. But

1408
01:08:24,040 --> 01:08:26,960
Speaker 4: I think you know, since the return of Karris Lavert.

1409
01:08:26,640 --> 01:08:29,160
Speaker 3: Indiana, you know, their their their offense is a lot

1410
01:08:29,200 --> 01:08:32,920
Speaker 3: better than what it was. You know, for me, I

1411
01:08:32,960 --> 01:08:36,200
Speaker 3: thought the Pacers offense would be better this year. Obviously,

1412
01:08:36,240 --> 01:08:39,400
Speaker 3: you know, they traded Ola Depot, they haven't had Lavert,

1413
01:08:39,439 --> 01:08:41,280
Speaker 3: but you know, they just put up an offensive rating

1414
01:08:41,400 --> 01:08:43,880
Speaker 3: of you know, one to twenty against you know, a

1415
01:08:43,960 --> 01:08:47,799
Speaker 3: Suns team which is top their seventh in defensive rating.

1416
01:08:49,040 --> 01:08:53,160
Speaker 3: You know, I think the Miami has some they they

1417
01:08:53,200 --> 01:08:55,680
Speaker 3: they can attack this Pacers defense. The Pacers defense, they're

1418
01:08:55,720 --> 01:08:58,640
Speaker 3: only you know, they've been struggling. They've been giving up

1419
01:08:58,640 --> 01:09:00,600
Speaker 3: one hundred and thirteen points per one hund possessions over

1420
01:09:00,600 --> 01:09:04,680
Speaker 3: the last two weeks. I think, you know, the Pacers,

1421
01:09:04,720 --> 01:09:09,439
Speaker 3: you know, they're allowing teams to shoot, We're allowing they're

1422
01:09:09,479 --> 01:09:11,960
Speaker 3: allowing teams to make thirty eight percent from buying arc.

1423
01:09:12,520 --> 01:09:14,559
Speaker 3: You know, some of that is a product of variants,

1424
01:09:14,840 --> 01:09:17,400
Speaker 3: but I think, you know, this is a game where

1425
01:09:17,479 --> 01:09:19,920
Speaker 3: you know Miami can get off. The Pacers are twenty

1426
01:09:19,960 --> 01:09:23,760
Speaker 3: third in personal fouls, the heat they tended, you know,

1427
01:09:23,880 --> 01:09:26,920
Speaker 3: dropsy who they're They're shooting seventy percent at the rem

1428
01:09:27,320 --> 01:09:29,439
Speaker 3: so I think at two fifteen this is a low

1429
01:09:29,479 --> 01:09:32,360
Speaker 3: total for today's NBA. I think both teams get off,

1430
01:09:32,439 --> 01:09:34,679
Speaker 3: so both teams a arrested. So I'm gonna play over

1431
01:09:35,520 --> 01:09:35,840
Speaker 3: all right.

1432
01:09:35,880 --> 01:09:37,400
Speaker 1: I like it. I like the foul angle there too

1433
01:09:39,520 --> 01:09:43,160
Speaker 1: from mine. You know what's interesting is I was gonna

1434
01:09:43,160 --> 01:09:44,559
Speaker 1: go I want to talk about this one real quick.

1435
01:09:44,560 --> 01:09:47,080
Speaker 1: I was gonna go with the under in Golden State

1436
01:09:47,160 --> 01:09:51,240
Speaker 1: Memphis because Steph Curry is doubtful, Kelly Uber is supposed

1437
01:09:51,240 --> 01:09:53,760
Speaker 1: to be out Memphis. The under is eight and two

1438
01:09:53,800 --> 01:09:57,080
Speaker 1: in their last ten uh the Grizzlies have the I

1439
01:09:57,120 --> 01:10:01,080
Speaker 1: think seventh highest underrate in their games. But this total

1440
01:10:01,120 --> 01:10:03,519
Speaker 1: over two oh six is opened. I don't know where

1441
01:10:03,520 --> 01:10:06,920
Speaker 1: that opened at. And then then with a two twenty one,

1442
01:10:08,080 --> 01:10:10,160
Speaker 1: I still kind only towards the under, like I will

1443
01:10:10,160 --> 01:10:12,760
Speaker 1: probably wind up playing the under. I'll wait to make

1444
01:10:12,800 --> 01:10:14,960
Speaker 1: sure the Curry's out, like that's gotta be the angle, right,

1445
01:10:15,080 --> 01:10:18,200
Speaker 1: like there's probably like an expectation that Curry's probably gonna play,

1446
01:10:18,680 --> 01:10:20,479
Speaker 1: So I'll wait to see if Curry's gonna play, and

1447
01:10:20,479 --> 01:10:22,320
Speaker 1: then I'll adjust for that and I might play the

1448
01:10:22,400 --> 01:10:23,280
Speaker 1: under if he's out.

1449
01:10:23,640 --> 01:10:24,080
Speaker 4: Makes sense.

1450
01:10:24,120 --> 01:10:27,400
Speaker 3: I think Fan actually played the under two twenty three

1451
01:10:27,439 --> 01:10:30,479
Speaker 3: and a half, and I think Joseph actually got the

1452
01:10:30,560 --> 01:10:33,080
Speaker 3: under twenty four. So I think a lot of that

1453
01:10:33,120 --> 01:10:35,760
Speaker 3: line movement is just based on Curry being out, and

1454
01:10:35,960 --> 01:10:38,640
Speaker 3: you know, obviously Golden State they struggle to score with

1455
01:10:38,760 --> 01:10:42,559
Speaker 3: him off the floor. So I like the under, but

1456
01:10:42,640 --> 01:10:45,880
Speaker 3: I just I mean, I think at this price, I'm

1457
01:10:45,960 --> 01:10:47,960
Speaker 3: kind of struggling with it. I don't really like to

1458
01:10:49,280 --> 01:10:51,439
Speaker 3: I'm more likely to go to other way once something

1459
01:10:51,479 --> 01:10:53,560
Speaker 3: gets steen three, four or five points.

1460
01:10:53,880 --> 01:10:55,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, So look, I want to ask you about that, like,

1461
01:10:55,439 --> 01:10:58,799
Speaker 1: if you know something that's the right play once it moves,

1462
01:10:58,800 --> 01:11:00,760
Speaker 1: are you just like I didn't get that, Like I

1463
01:11:00,840 --> 01:11:03,280
Speaker 1: just I lost the value, Like are you just out

1464
01:11:03,680 --> 01:11:03,920
Speaker 1: for me?

1465
01:11:04,000 --> 01:11:06,080
Speaker 3: I mean, I have you know, obviously have a model,

1466
01:11:06,200 --> 01:11:08,960
Speaker 3: so I have a I have a number, and then

1467
01:11:09,040 --> 01:11:11,639
Speaker 3: there's a number on which I'm gonna take the other side.

1468
01:11:11,680 --> 01:11:14,280
Speaker 3: It's like Billy Waters had a saying, if you're you know,

1469
01:11:14,680 --> 01:11:18,599
Speaker 3: if you're a buyer at seven or eight. If you're

1470
01:11:18,640 --> 01:11:21,880
Speaker 3: a buyer at eight, if your buyer sell at seven,

1471
01:11:22,040 --> 01:11:23,160
Speaker 3: you're a seller at nine.

1472
01:11:23,880 --> 01:11:24,080
Speaker 1: You know.

1473
01:11:24,280 --> 01:11:26,519
Speaker 3: So it's just like I kind of just look at

1474
01:11:26,520 --> 01:11:28,280
Speaker 3: it from that perspective. I think there's a there's a

1475
01:11:28,360 --> 01:11:30,719
Speaker 3: number on each side in which I'm willing to buy.

1476
01:11:31,600 --> 01:11:33,519
Speaker 3: But I think there's certain there's certain games, and this

1477
01:11:33,640 --> 01:11:35,680
Speaker 3: might be one of them where they just can't make

1478
01:11:35,720 --> 01:11:38,080
Speaker 3: the number low enough or high enough.

1479
01:11:38,160 --> 01:11:39,719
Speaker 4: And I think this may be one of those games,

1480
01:11:39,720 --> 01:11:41,840
Speaker 4: because I mean the Gorizies have you.

1481
01:11:41,760 --> 01:11:44,519
Speaker 3: Know they held Miami to eighty eight offensive radio the

1482
01:11:44,600 --> 01:11:45,720
Speaker 3: other day.

1483
01:11:46,520 --> 01:11:49,839
Speaker 1: Uh So instead, I'm gonna be going with Luca Doncic

1484
01:11:49,960 --> 01:11:51,800
Speaker 1: over two and a half may three pointers. You can

1485
01:11:51,800 --> 01:11:54,439
Speaker 1: get that number somewhere. They still haven't adjusted on this.

1486
01:11:54,680 --> 01:11:57,320
Speaker 1: I don't know why. The books are just they're just

1487
01:11:58,200 --> 01:11:59,760
Speaker 1: most of the books are just putting out two and

1488
01:11:59,760 --> 01:12:04,280
Speaker 1: a half half flat early now when you hear this,

1489
01:12:04,320 --> 01:12:06,200
Speaker 1: and maybe up to three and a half, I still

1490
01:12:06,240 --> 01:12:08,240
Speaker 1: think there's value there. But if you're having to lay

1491
01:12:08,520 --> 01:12:10,360
Speaker 1: juice at three and a half, I wouldn't take it

1492
01:12:10,680 --> 01:12:12,720
Speaker 1: like I would only take three and a half. If

1493
01:12:12,760 --> 01:12:14,840
Speaker 1: you're getting plus on it. I still think there's value

1494
01:12:15,400 --> 01:12:17,479
Speaker 1: plus three and a half because Doncis has gone over

1495
01:12:17,640 --> 01:12:20,320
Speaker 1: I think he's gone over three in seven of his

1496
01:12:20,400 --> 01:12:23,840
Speaker 1: last ten. It's just been an automatic play for me,

1497
01:12:23,840 --> 01:12:25,719
Speaker 1: so I'm gonna stick with that one. I do also

1498
01:12:25,880 --> 01:12:29,080
Speaker 1: like my usual plays of the Spurs second quarter versus

1499
01:12:29,120 --> 01:12:30,840
Speaker 1: the Calves. They should be able to win that quarter,

1500
01:12:31,000 --> 01:12:32,799
Speaker 1: should be able to get in on that pretty easy.

1501
01:12:32,840 --> 01:12:37,120
Speaker 1: And then also looking at what was the other one

1502
01:12:37,160 --> 01:12:41,439
Speaker 1: I had, and oh yeah, I like I like Boston

1503
01:12:41,439 --> 01:12:45,280
Speaker 1: and I versus Sacramento. I think like Sacramento. It's seven points,

1504
01:12:45,360 --> 01:12:47,280
Speaker 1: but I feel like Boston might be heading in the

1505
01:12:47,360 --> 01:12:49,240
Speaker 1: right direction, so I like that one as well. That's

1506
01:12:49,240 --> 01:12:51,439
Speaker 1: going to wrap it up for the Action Network Podcast Tanks.

1507
01:12:51,479 --> 01:12:53,360
Speaker 1: For joining us, everybody, make sure you check out all

1508
01:12:53,400 --> 01:12:56,200
Speaker 1: of our stuff in the app. Download that right now.

1509
01:12:56,600 --> 01:12:58,120
Speaker 1: Make sure to check out all of our great March

1510
01:12:58,120 --> 01:13:03,240
Speaker 1: Madness contact content and enjoying March Madness the first weekend.

1511
01:13:03,439 --> 01:13:05,120
Speaker 1: It's great weekend for gamblers.

1512
01:13:05,520 --> 01:13:16,000
Speaker 5: Have a good day, everybody.

1513
01:13:17,800 --> 01:13:18,880
Speaker 6: We're finished talking.

1514
01:13:19,720 --> 01:13:19,800
Speaker 4: H