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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Fantasy pro This is the Fantasy

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Speaker 1: Baseball Podcast. It's me Joey b Joe Pi's Atia and

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Speaker 1: today it's time to talk projections. I know you love it.

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Speaker 1: If you love fantasy baseball, you love projections. You love

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Speaker 1: looking ahead to the future, trying to figure out who

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Speaker 1: these guys are gonna be in twenty twenty four. And

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Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about ten players that are breaking draft

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Speaker 1: boards today on the show. And of course the Welsh

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Speaker 1: is always here wearing his Savannah banana's hat too. Now

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Speaker 1: we can't afford to go see the Savanna Banana. It's

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Speaker 1: because it's like a thousand dollars a ticket. But look

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Speaker 1: at that hat. That is spectacular. And when you're talking

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Speaker 1: about projections, when you're talking about value. It's a national

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Speaker 1: holiday today. I don't have a lot of people realize it's

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Speaker 1: ATC Day. And the author of the ATC Projection System

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Speaker 1: is here with us, Ariel Cohen, the man, the myth,

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Speaker 1: and the legend. He's an FSWA Baseball Writer of the

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Speaker 1: Year in twenty nineteen, Article of the Year in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 1: He's like, I don't know, He's like everything of the

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Speaker 1: year every single year. Ariol. Here's my big question for you.

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Speaker 1: The A is for Ariol, this is for Cohen. What

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Speaker 1: in the hell is the T for?

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Speaker 2: It's a transliterated Hebrew name TV.

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Speaker 1: Oh you know what, There was no way I was

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Speaker 1: going to guess that.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, million guesses. We want to talk about projections and

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Speaker 3: percentages zero percent chance Joe or I we were gonna get.

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Speaker 1: So can you spell that for me? I just want

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Speaker 1: to get is it like? Let me actually better? Yet

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Speaker 1: let Welsh try to spell it. That's really the.

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Speaker 4: TSAV, not bad tzv I.

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Speaker 3: It needs not close either, not bad and not close

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Speaker 3: at all.

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Speaker 1: So after the show, so if I'm gotta run and

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Speaker 1: change my name, We're going to talk about some players

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Speaker 1: here at each position that Ariel has in his projection system.

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Speaker 1: And for those of you who don't know what ATC is,

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Speaker 1: or maybe you're newer to Fantasy Baseball, it is one

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Speaker 1: of the great projection systems out there. Are is one

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Speaker 1: of the most consistent rankers, one of the best projection

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Speaker 1: specialists out there in the market. So Ariel, talk to

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Speaker 1: the people a little bit about your process, what ATC is,

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Speaker 1: how they can apply it, and where they can find it.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, ATC has been ranked number one is the most

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Speaker 4: accurate projection system by Fantasy pros last five years in

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Speaker 4: a row, so you know it's good. It's a projection aggregator.

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Speaker 4: I take a look at many other projections out there

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Speaker 4: and some history, some past history, last three years, and

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Speaker 4: it takes the best parts of each. For some let's say,

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Speaker 4: home runs, steamer might be better than ZIPS. Maybe for

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Speaker 4: strikeouts it goes the other way. And so I wait

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Speaker 4: the projections according to how they've performed historically to give

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Speaker 4: the most accurate representation of what could be for twenty

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Speaker 4: twenty four. And it certainly has worked in the past,

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Speaker 4: so hoping it works again. ATC just landed today. Today

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Speaker 4: is ATC Day national holiday. Check it out on roto,

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Speaker 4: boiler on Fangrafts, many other sites to be announced.

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Speaker 2: Pretty sick.

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Speaker 3: You know one thing I want to mention, Joe, You

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Speaker 3: were like everybody loves project Everybody doesn't actually love projections.

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Speaker 3: There's actually quite a few people that still exist out

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Speaker 3: there that are very anti per well.

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Speaker 1: I am, but aerials our guests, so I don't want

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Speaker 1: to be abjected guests to make it awkward.

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Speaker 3: Now, Well, I'm just saying there's variations of it all.

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Speaker 3: There are people that live and die by projections. I'm

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Speaker 3: kind of a middleman a little bit. So the only

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Speaker 3: thing I wanted to bring up in this because I

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Speaker 3: think your projections are and you know, I've been doing

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Speaker 3: shows with you for a long time, you and I

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Speaker 3: great friends. Shagging baseball's out in the outfield only a

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Speaker 3: couple couple months ago.

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Speaker 1: But like, I've always.

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Speaker 3: Appreciated your projection system because of the aggregate nature, especially

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Speaker 3: like we do a lot of aggg aggregate content here

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Speaker 3: at Fantasy pros. It makes a lot of sense for

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Speaker 3: any of the doubters that are out there. Do you

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Speaker 3: want to just throw just a couple of little nuggets

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Speaker 3: real quick? And why not even just projections? But your

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Speaker 3: projections should be a little bit of step ahead in

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Speaker 3: something that people should be paying attention to.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean the idea behind projections. It's not gonna

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Speaker 4: ever show you, Oh this guy is gonna break out

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Speaker 4: like a lot of the players are going to talk

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Speaker 4: about today. It's gonna be just it's a value compared

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Speaker 4: to what everybody else thinks. I'm good with a three

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Speaker 4: round gain, a two dollars gain right, it's not gonna

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Speaker 4: Oh my god, I can't believe I got Aaron Judge

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Speaker 4: hidden sixty runs like, it's never gonna get that kind

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Speaker 4: of thing. But it just gives a little bit extra

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Speaker 4: on everything. It minimizes the process a parameter risk right,

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Speaker 4: a projection. Who knows what a player is actually gonna be?

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Speaker 4: Steamer right? Is Zips right? Is the bat right? We

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Speaker 4: don't know. But ATC minimizes the uncertainty. So that's why

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Speaker 4: it's a step ahead of everybody else.

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Speaker 3: I have one more, Joe, and then we're gonna get

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Speaker 3: to this because our dear friend Ariol has given us

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Speaker 3: a bunch of awesome undervalued players according to ATC, which

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Speaker 3: we're going to be talking about here on National ATC Day.

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Speaker 3: But how about this, let's go on the other side

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Speaker 3: real quick. If you had to tell us what you

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Speaker 3: think projections are the worst at in the five categories

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Speaker 3: hitting and pitching, what do you think projections get the

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Speaker 3: most have the biggest struggle with on hitting? And what

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Speaker 3: do you think categorically they have the biggest struggle with

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Speaker 3: on pitching? It could be obviously wins. Yeah, I'll tell

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Speaker 3: you mine. I think pitching, it's era. It's always wrong.

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Speaker 3: It's always based usually off of a next fip of

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Speaker 3: the previous year. And I think for hitting, actually I

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Speaker 3: don't know. I probably would go with maybe home I

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Speaker 3: feel like home runs tend to be a struggle or

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Speaker 3: even better, stolen bases last year with Corbyn Carroll everybody

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Speaker 3: got wrong, So oh yeah, that'll be My official line

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Speaker 3: is stolen bases in ERA.

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Speaker 1: But what say you just answer your own question.

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Speaker 3: Well, I answered my version of it. I want to

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Speaker 3: hear what the has to say.

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Speaker 2: I'm pitching side. I agree.

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Speaker 4: I think ERA is obviously the most volatile year to year,

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Speaker 4: is the hardest to predict, so I'll agree with that.

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Speaker 4: It could be batting average on the hitting side. Although

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Speaker 4: batting average stabilized somewhat. Home runs you're a little bit

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Speaker 4: right about. Home runs actually take about a year and

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Speaker 4: two months to fully stabilize. But I would say it's

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Speaker 4: gonna be more the runs and RBI's because team context

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Speaker 4: is hard. If you're not doing well, you're gonna be

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Speaker 4: dropped to the bottom of the lineup, and then it's

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Speaker 4: gonna snowball. You're gonna lose playing time, you're gonna lose

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Speaker 4: at bats, you're gonna lose the run production.

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Speaker 2: It's more about team context stolen bases.

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Speaker 4: Really, you know, if they get on, they steal it

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Speaker 4: a certain clip, they tried a certain clip. It's a

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Speaker 4: little bit manager dependent, but you could get a nice

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Speaker 4: handle on it. So I'm gonna go with runs. RBI's

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Speaker 4: maybe into batting average on the hitter side now.

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Speaker 1: Although I am not the biggest projections guy, but I

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Speaker 1: like about arials work specifically, and not because he's a

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Speaker 1: guest here and he's here on the show today. What

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Speaker 1: I like about his work, honestly is what he said,

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Speaker 1: which is he's kind of like the sheriff out there

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Speaker 1: keeping everybody in line, you know, saying, well, you know

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Speaker 1: you project this, you protect this, but how good are

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Speaker 1: you at doing that? And I like that. I like

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Speaker 1: how Ariels kind of like the boss out there. He's

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Speaker 1: like the wire up of the projection world in fantasy baseball.

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Speaker 1: I think that's a good thing. So I'd love to

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Speaker 1: see you in a cowboy hat maybe later in the show.

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Speaker 1: We'll see how it goes. Let's get to the names.

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Speaker 1: Let's start talking about some baseball, because that's what you're

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Speaker 1: Let's start with catchers. Speaking of home let's go behind

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Speaker 1: the plate here and talk about two catchers here, sal

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Speaker 1: Perez ATC projections looking at twenty four dingers, sixty three runs,

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Speaker 1: eighty one RBI a two to fifty eight batting average.

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Speaker 1: Wilson Contreras in the ATC projections also relatively close here,

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Speaker 1: a little bit lower in the RBI's sixty four compared

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Speaker 1: to sal Perez eighty one. Still twenty one home runs,

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Speaker 1: though for Contrera's sixty runs at a two fifty three

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Speaker 1: batting average with five stolen bases so a few more steals.

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Speaker 1: So Perez and Contreras they both popped into the ATC

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Speaker 1: projections as undervalued players. Catchers are tough. They're going off

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Speaker 1: right now as catcher number six and number eight on NFBC.

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Speaker 1: Between these two guys, who do.

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Speaker 2: You prefer Yeah.

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Speaker 4: So, by the way, just to note that it really

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Speaker 4: matters whether youre in a one catcher league or two

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Speaker 4: catcher league. For a catcher question, if you're in a

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Speaker 4: one catcher league, like, don't take anybody who costs anything,

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Speaker 4: go your last round and take whoever is.

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Speaker 2: The best available. We're talking about it.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, we're talking about a two catcher league here, and

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Speaker 4: those two are very similar in profile, yet a little

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Speaker 4: bit more power with Perez a couple of steals with Contreras,

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Speaker 4: we're a little bit more about salth. Perez is healthy

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Speaker 4: as a tad older, but on the flip side, South

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Speaker 4: Perez will DH quite a bit for the Royals. That's

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Speaker 4: going to keep him more healthy, and that's also going

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Speaker 4: to give him a lot or potentially I should say

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Speaker 4: potentially a lot more playing time. So there are very

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Speaker 4: very good points both Personally, I'm a Sal Perez fan.

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Speaker 4: I think that the extra hundred at bats is gonna

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Speaker 4: be enormous for those counting stats.

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Speaker 2: The batting average is just fine. So if you're not too.

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Speaker 4: Worried about the uh about the health, and again, you're

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Speaker 4: gonna be d h most of the time. I think

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Speaker 4: that Sal Perez is a really really nice buy this year.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: The one thing I'll throw in there that's interesting about

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Speaker 3: these two, though, is when you look in an NFBC format,

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Speaker 3: those are two catcher leagues, catchers go crazy. I tell everybody,

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Speaker 3: if you pay attention to ADPs from NFBC, here are

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Speaker 3: three things you need to know. Pitchers are gonna go high,

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Speaker 3: closers go crazy, and you're gonna have catchers that have

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Speaker 3: unrealistic value to most of your leagues. The difference with

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Speaker 3: these two players, though, is south Perez is still a

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Speaker 3: player in you know, you're starting a fan tracks league,

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Speaker 3: you're jumping in. He's still gonna go relatively high. Wilsiicatreris

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Speaker 3: does not. Wilson and Tres is probably more realistically a

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Speaker 3: post two hundred player. So what I think is interesting

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Speaker 3: when you look at these you say, hey, don't take

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Speaker 3: anybody that's of value. I want Salve Perez here, but

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Speaker 3: Wilsionicatres is gonna cost exponentially less in all these other

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Speaker 3: normal leagues. He is a guy that falls. So I

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Speaker 3: thought it was interesting that he popped in as a

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Speaker 3: top ten value on the catchers Ario.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Absolutely, I mean both are pretty good. I'm happy with

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Speaker 4: taking both of you. And you can also say, you

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Speaker 4: know what, I'm not gonna take Perez where his value is.

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna wait if he's still around, take him. If not,

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Speaker 4: you know, go contraras a little couple of picks later.

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Speaker 4: You can play it by year in in a draft,

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Speaker 4: in an auction, it's pretty much whoever is the cheapest, right,

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Speaker 4: You're you're gonna getting a four or three dollars bargain,

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Speaker 4: whatever it is. Just pick the one that's the biggest bargain.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I got a two catcher NFBC right now that

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Speaker 3: Luis Campisano is my top catcher. So that's how I

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Speaker 3: feel about it. Let's go over to first base. Here,

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Speaker 3: really interesting name that popped up as your underlying value,

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Speaker 3: and I am curious about, like what last year is

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Speaker 3: pushing this year. But it was Josh Naylor. But what

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Speaker 3: I'm curious about is what is the underlying value for him?

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Speaker 3: Where does that lie? Naylor to me is kind of

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Speaker 3: closer to like a Yandi Diaz type of player. Yet

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Speaker 3: he's going in NFBC at least six total spot difference

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Speaker 3: from Yandi and they're both inside the top forty. So

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Speaker 3: you've got high batting average, which I think is probably

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Speaker 3: the key with Naylor. But what's the thing that sets

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Speaker 3: you off that makes Naylor such a good underlying value.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that Yandi Diaz is another value. It's

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Speaker 4: also actually an ATC bargain. But Yandi Diez is due

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Speaker 4: for regression. Josh Naylor is going to be hitting forth

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Speaker 4: in that lineup, that massive, massive run potential, I mean,

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Speaker 4: batting ahead of him, you got Kwan Jimenez, Jose Ramirez.

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Speaker 4: There's so many guys who are have a very high

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Speaker 4: percentage chance of getting on base, so he's gonna have

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Speaker 4: a lot of RBI opportunities. Also, he's very well categorically spread.

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Speaker 4: I mean he's still ten bases last year. He can

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Speaker 4: push twenty homers, which he did two years ago in

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Speaker 4: a three TOHO eight batting average. Now that's not going

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Speaker 4: to continue, but should remain fairly high. He's got so

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Speaker 4: much invested all over the place, and look at his

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Speaker 4: contact rate eighty four percent last year. The guy gets

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Speaker 4: on base has a little bit of everything. A big

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Speaker 4: RBI push is just a lot of places for value.

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Speaker 4: He could be worse than one category. He'll push the

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Speaker 4: other this year. I see a very high floor production

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Speaker 4: from the cleanup pair of the Guard.

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Speaker 3: And I'd add one of the things that probably pushes

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Speaker 3: them being of value here are if you're looking at

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Speaker 3: the top five players at first base for batting average

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Speaker 3: on ATC Freddie Freeman number one, You've got Yandi's in there,

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Speaker 3: Bryce Harper, number five is Vlad and Naylor is sandwiched

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Speaker 3: in between them, and you're still getting twenty plus homers

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Speaker 3: which are not projected off of Yandy, and you're getting

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Speaker 3: RBI totals that are closer to the Freeman's, Harpers and Vlads.

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Speaker 3: It's just he's not that player. He just might be

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Speaker 3: a more upside version of Yandy Diaz, which is really

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Speaker 3: underrated for fantasy teams.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and I think the better comp actually in terms

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Speaker 4: of the skill set is to Paul Goldschmidt. I think

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Speaker 4: he has a very very similar profile to him, and

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Speaker 4: it's going way way cheaper.

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Speaker 1: That's a really interesting comp the Goldsman one. I remember

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Speaker 1: last year you coming on the show. It was in February,

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Speaker 1: and Naylor is one of your early guys you want

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Speaker 1: to talk about, and I after Aeriel made his case,

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Speaker 1: I went out there and I drafted him everywhere because

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Speaker 1: he was like a what a post two hundred ADP

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Speaker 1: guyast year?

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Speaker 2: I want to oh yeah, right yeah.

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Speaker 1: And I remember having that conversation about Naylor with you specifically,

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Speaker 1: and he was like, this is my guy, this is why,

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Speaker 1: And you laid out a lot of good things that

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Speaker 1: contact rate, one of them in the minor leagues being

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Speaker 1: something that was positive. And hopefully the Guardians get a

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Speaker 1: little bit more lineup protection around for everybody this year.

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Speaker 1: We'll see how that goes. They need a little bit

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Speaker 1: more offense. Speaking of some of the guys that we like,

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Speaker 1: Alex Bregman's a player that's really settled in to a groove.

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Speaker 1: The last two seasons here for Alex Bregman over at

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Speaker 1: third base have been nearly identical, which is great because

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Speaker 1: I'm sure it makes life a lot easier to project them.

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Speaker 1: I guess here's the question when it comes to Bregman,

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Speaker 1: he's hitting his peak in terms of age, In terms

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Speaker 1: of you know that thirty year old window from twenty

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Speaker 1: eight to thirty one, that's usually the best you're getting

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Speaker 1: out of a player, But if you go back to

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Speaker 1: twenty nineteen, you do have that outlier that forty one

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Speaker 1: home run season. Even the year before that thirty one,

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Speaker 1: he settled into this twenty three to twenty five range.

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Speaker 1: I know you're saying ATC is not going to project

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Speaker 1: power breakouts, But at this point when we're looking at Bregman,

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Speaker 1: do you think what he's settled into here is basically

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Speaker 1: who he's going to be, or do we ever potentially

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Speaker 1: see maybe a better start to the season in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four, were maybe that twenty five number bumps back

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Speaker 1: up to the thirty range.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, again, this is another one of those examples of

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Speaker 4: we're not gonna see that breakout. This is just a

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Speaker 4: prototypical value for what he is. Yeah, eightec's projecting more

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Speaker 4: of the same. He's not that forty homern guy that

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Speaker 4: he was back in twenty nineteen. He's a twenty low

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Speaker 4: twenties type guy. He did have twenty five homers last year,

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Speaker 4: so that's not out of play. At batting average is

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Speaker 4: gonna be awesome. I mean, we'll talk about contact rate

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Speaker 4: eighty eight percent contact rate last year, eighty eight percent.

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Speaker 4: That's crazy, crazy good. His line drive power is fantastic.

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Speaker 4: We're talking to sixty two to seventy average runs in RBIs.

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Speaker 4: I mean, this guy had one hundred and three runs

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Speaker 4: last year ninety eight RBIs. You know, runs in RBIs

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Speaker 4: are two fifths of all of your rodostats. So if

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Speaker 4: you got a guy who's almost gonna get one hundred

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Speaker 4: in each Massive Massive and he's only going in the

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Speaker 4: seventh round, it's not like you gotta pay a Manny

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Speaker 4: Machado type price. You know, he's not going in this

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Speaker 4: Paul Goldschmidt range. He's not going all the way up

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Speaker 4: there seventh round, and you're getting good production.

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Speaker 2: Again.

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Speaker 4: The only downside I see is a little bit of age,

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Speaker 4: but it's gonna be soft regression. I think Gregman is

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Speaker 4: just a guy to hold value.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, he's always interesting to me because I

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Speaker 3: feel like he's one of those guys that I've identified

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Speaker 3: a few of these players where I feel like they're

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Speaker 3: at the tippy top of optimizing what they do best

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Speaker 3: and they're getting the most out of their production. The

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Speaker 3: reason I don't like some of those guys sometimes is

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Speaker 3: if there is any regression or any bad slumps, then

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Speaker 3: they fall apart. Like I think CJ. Abrams is one

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Speaker 3: of those players that the way he was able to

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Speaker 3: pull the ball, get the ball in the air. Last

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Speaker 3: year was at the tippy top of his ability, and

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Speaker 3: it's like, if that regresses at all, you're gonna lose that.

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Speaker 3: Gregman's kind of the same way, really really high launch angle.

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Speaker 3: He doesn't have a really high pole rate, which you'd

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Speaker 3: love for him to do a little bit more, but

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Speaker 3: you also had like declining barrel, not big hard hit.

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Speaker 3: So like he optimizes his game to where he plays

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Speaker 3: and how he plays to the fullest. The good thing

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Speaker 3: is he kind of continues doing that. But I always

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Speaker 3: worry if there is any little downtick, then you're looking

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Speaker 3: at a guy that is like sub twenty homers and

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Speaker 3: blah blah blah. But now we don't have to pay

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Speaker 3: the cost for him anymore.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and work comes towards he gets old man skills,

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Speaker 4: which is he he walks and by the way, last

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Speaker 4: year he walked more than he struck out. There's not

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Speaker 4: that many players that can say that. So he's got

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Speaker 4: a great eye. I see very little soft aggression for him.

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Speaker 4: Solid play for a base of value in the seventh round.

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Speaker 4: It's still high mid draft.

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Speaker 1: I would also say just to throw that in there

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Speaker 1: about pregnant too. If you're in the salary cap drafts, like,

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Speaker 1: that's the pivot at that position, because you're gonna pay

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Speaker 1: a ton for Royce Lewis, You're gonna pay a ton

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Speaker 1: for the upside of Helladela Cruz, right, all the sexy

385
00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:39,640
Speaker 1: names that are ahead of him on the ECR and

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Speaker 1: the ADP. That is a great pivot point to his

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Speaker 1: Ariels pointing out if you're in these rotal formats, right,

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Speaker 1: and you're in salary cap league, Preglan's gonna give you

389
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Speaker 1: close to one hundred and one hundred and both those

390
00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:51,480
Speaker 1: big categories. That's huge. That's something you really don't know

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Speaker 1: if the other guys are gonna give you. Maybe they'll

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Speaker 1: give you stolen bases too. Yeah, okay, but at the

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Speaker 1: end of the day, he's gonna give at least that

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Speaker 1: twenty five home run benchmark power, which is also pretty

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Speaker 1: is probably gonna do it, Ariol. Wouldn't you say, say,

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Speaker 1: for at least probably ten dollars less than the other two.

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Speaker 2: I don't know about ten dollars less, but.

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Speaker 1: Close to it. I bet in some of these format

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Speaker 1: you know, you know, the sexy names, they go very

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Speaker 1: high and some of these big high roller drafts.

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Speaker 4: Do I should say ted, yes, the market will pay

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00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:16,600
Speaker 4: ten dollars less.

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00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:19,760
Speaker 2: I don't know ten dollars, yeah, yeah, yeah.

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00:17:19,760 --> 00:17:22,400
Speaker 3: And I've noticed it's Bregman and Ernado Ernaudo's I've had

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Speaker 3: some early shares of. He just continuously falls a little

406
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Speaker 3: bit more power projection, better batting average projection. So if

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Speaker 3: you're looking for some cheaper third base, Bregman is one

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Speaker 3: of those guys. All Right, we talked about old man skills.

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Speaker 3: This is going to be old man argument for me.

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Speaker 3: We're going to second base. This to me has been

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Speaker 3: an age old argument I've been making for at least

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Speaker 3: the last eighteen months of not two years. Louisa Rise

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Speaker 3: has popped up on your undervalued players as well Nolan Gorman,

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Speaker 3: two completely different players. So I need to get your

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Speaker 3: overall take because my problem with a Rise is pretty simple.

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Speaker 3: He is a one high, one category player. I'll give

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Speaker 3: him two with runs projections this year eighty two runs

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Speaker 3: with a three to nineteen batting average. If those are

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Speaker 3: the only two categories we played in, give me a

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Speaker 3: first round pick. The problem is albatross with RBIs he

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Speaker 3: doesn't steal bases and he doesn't hit homers. He's projected

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Speaker 3: nine thirteen combined stolen bases in homers. He's a two

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Speaker 3: category player. I have a hard time understanding why he's

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Speaker 3: still undervalued compared to Nolan Gorman, who pops in your system,

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Speaker 3: put a big hard hit numbers last year. He's projected

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Speaker 3: for twenty eight homers, seventy three RBI, kind of low

427
00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:37,879
Speaker 3: runs more stolen bases than Luis a rise and a

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Speaker 3: I guess serviceable batting average two forty four. So understanding

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Speaker 3: all of this, Arise is going inside the top one

430
00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:47,880
Speaker 3: P fifty on NFBC. Gorman he's at one ninety eight,

431
00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:51,359
Speaker 3: as I did the January first on Just you Know

432
00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:54,240
Speaker 3: ADP for January first on. My question is is they're

433
00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:57,920
Speaker 3: both underperformers. There's a fifty spot difference. Do you want

434
00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:00,600
Speaker 3: only two categories out of a Rise? Would you rather

435
00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:02,240
Speaker 3: wait a little bit and get the value out of

436
00:19:02,280 --> 00:19:02,879
Speaker 3: Norlan Gorman?

437
00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:05,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, so great question, And there's a lot of things

438
00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:08,280
Speaker 4: that go into this, those two very different players.

439
00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:09,680
Speaker 2: Rayas it's very unique.

440
00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:12,159
Speaker 4: Usually when you think of one category hitters, we're talking

441
00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:16,680
Speaker 4: stone based demons Estuary Ruiz. The problem with one category

442
00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:19,439
Speaker 4: guys it's a risk problem right in the numbers.

443
00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:21,320
Speaker 2: It doesn't really contemplate risk. It values.

444
00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:24,520
Speaker 4: Oh he's gonna hit three thirteen, that's worth Oh my goodness.

445
00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:27,120
Speaker 4: But there's a risk when you have a roto team

446
00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:30,480
Speaker 4: that matters on the base of values from different categories.

447
00:19:30,680 --> 00:19:32,840
Speaker 2: If you're buying loose riaz, you're.

448
00:19:32,720 --> 00:19:35,720
Speaker 4: Gonna probably say, oh, I got batting average, What the heck?

449
00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:37,639
Speaker 2: I don't need to take anybody else that has that.

450
00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:40,720
Speaker 4: I could take some low batting average catchers, Well, what

451
00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:41,960
Speaker 4: happens if he gets hurt?

452
00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:44,800
Speaker 2: What happens if he underperforms? You're sort of screwed.

453
00:19:44,840 --> 00:19:48,760
Speaker 4: So the risk is in the team context, in aggregation, right,

454
00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:51,439
Speaker 4: So that it is a problem. The other problem I have,

455
00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:53,880
Speaker 4: and it's mainly in a draft setting, in a snake

456
00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:56,679
Speaker 4: draft setting, is there are so many other players in

457
00:19:56,800 --> 00:19:58,879
Speaker 4: round ten to eleven that I want to take, and

458
00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:01,879
Speaker 4: so many other stats I really need to pound. You

459
00:20:02,080 --> 00:20:04,760
Speaker 4: need to build up that base of value, those counting stats,

460
00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:07,879
Speaker 4: those RBIs, those runs, And if he's not gonna do it,

461
00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:10,639
Speaker 4: and he's only gonna fill one category, it's not an

462
00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:13,760
Speaker 4: opportunity in a draft to do that, right, It's just

463
00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:17,119
Speaker 4: bad for the gameplay, the game. Theory of drafting in

464
00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:20,320
Speaker 4: an auction a little bit different because you can build

465
00:20:20,359 --> 00:20:23,919
Speaker 4: a base of a couple of fifteen dollars players, right,

466
00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:26,159
Speaker 4: you don't have to get a seventeen out of fifteen

467
00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:27,880
Speaker 4: and a thirteen out of ten. Right, you can get

468
00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:29,879
Speaker 4: a bunch, you can mix it up. You can't do

469
00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:32,159
Speaker 4: that in a draft. So in a draft, Nolan Gorman

470
00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:35,200
Speaker 4: is eavily the guy, and he's unique thirty homer guy

471
00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:38,359
Speaker 4: at the second base position, and he'll steal like seven

472
00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:41,800
Speaker 4: to ten bases, very unique profile. And this late in

473
00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:44,879
Speaker 4: a draft, I like in a snake draft, it's Nolan

474
00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:46,560
Speaker 4: Gorman for me, easily over a ride.

475
00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:50,119
Speaker 3: I feel like Luisa Rise is the best real life

476
00:20:50,119 --> 00:20:54,760
Speaker 3: player that breaks fantasy brains. And in theory he's so

477
00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:57,960
Speaker 3: much fun. We're not talking points leagues. Luisa Ri's phenomenal

478
00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:00,880
Speaker 3: in points leagues, but when it comes down to head

479
00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:05,399
Speaker 3: to head categories roto I just can't get behind constantly

480
00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:08,840
Speaker 3: the chaos that goes around. He's under.

481
00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:15,040
Speaker 1: A summer with well, yeah, miserable every day. Welsh was

482
00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:18,080
Speaker 1: miserable on leading off about Louis Arise.

483
00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:21,000
Speaker 3: If he hit twenty homers if he hit twenty homers

484
00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:21,639
Speaker 3: and still tend to.

485
00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:24,639
Speaker 1: In twenty homers, but if you just steal fifteen bases,

486
00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:25,920
Speaker 1: I think you feel a lot better about him. I

487
00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:27,960
Speaker 1: think that's the problem. Like if he had that one

488
00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:31,040
Speaker 1: other patch in his game, or if he played in

489
00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:34,080
Speaker 1: a juggernaut offense hitting into tool hole, maybe we'd feel

490
00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:34,840
Speaker 1: better about him too.

491
00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:38,080
Speaker 3: I don't know how about this, Ariol. You can take

492
00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:43,439
Speaker 3: one one category player, Luisa rise or as story, Ruiz,

493
00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:44,880
Speaker 3: which one do you want this year?

494
00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:47,439
Speaker 4: I'm going with a Rayaz there because I think that

495
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:49,720
Speaker 4: the batting average means a lot more than the stolen

496
00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:52,240
Speaker 4: bases there. There are so many more stone bases since

497
00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:55,280
Speaker 4: the change of the rules that the batting average of

498
00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:58,320
Speaker 4: a three twenty type player that is much more unique.

499
00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:00,280
Speaker 4: And I'm also way more sure that he's going to

500
00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:02,439
Speaker 4: get it. I mean, he's been a three twenty player

501
00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:07,320
Speaker 4: for the last four years in a row. Ariahs, I'm sorry, Ruiz,

502
00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:09,840
Speaker 4: I mean he did it once. Will he get on

503
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:12,840
Speaker 4: base at the same clip. Who knows Oakland stole last year?

504
00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:14,920
Speaker 4: Maybe they won't this year. There's a lot of things

505
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:16,960
Speaker 4: that can go wrong between the two.

506
00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:20,040
Speaker 1: It's Ariah, Yeah, with for fifteen guys. I think last

507
00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:23,120
Speaker 1: year there's still thirty more basis somewhere. Sixteen guys. Yeah,

508
00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:25,360
Speaker 1: I mean that is a big jump for what we've

509
00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:27,760
Speaker 1: been accustomed to the last couple of years. So certainly

510
00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:30,520
Speaker 1: big changers. Xander Bogartz was a guy who saw an

511
00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:33,040
Speaker 1: uptake in his stolen basis a career high nineteen last year.

512
00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:36,080
Speaker 1: Also had nineteen homers. Solid season for Bogarts. I thought

513
00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:38,920
Speaker 1: he was being a little overdrafted last year. Interesting thing here,

514
00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:41,440
Speaker 1: your projections are kind of right at the same spot

515
00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:44,280
Speaker 1: where Steamer is give or take a few home runs

516
00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:46,600
Speaker 1: or runs or RBI. But at the same time, here

517
00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:49,440
Speaker 1: if you look at the most interesting underlying stat when

518
00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:51,919
Speaker 1: it comes to Bogart's he slashed two eighty five three

519
00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:55,000
Speaker 1: fifty four to forty last year, but his expected slash numbers,

520
00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:57,760
Speaker 1: we're two fifty five for the batting average, three eighteen

521
00:22:57,880 --> 00:22:59,679
Speaker 1: for the on base percentage, four to one for the

522
00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:02,200
Speaker 1: slow Now those feel like red flags. Get you still

523
00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:05,280
Speaker 1: think he's underrated. Talk about why that might be, and

524
00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:08,120
Speaker 1: maybe that's the red flag that's standing out to people

525
00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:09,879
Speaker 1: of why they're a little hesitant with him when it

526
00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:10,880
Speaker 1: comes to twenty twenty four.

527
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:13,000
Speaker 4: Well, I'm not sure where those xtats come from, but

528
00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:15,800
Speaker 4: maybe it's the fact that his babbit went down, but

529
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:18,879
Speaker 4: it's still a fantastic He's used to babbitimself like three thirty.

530
00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 4: Just to give people context. Babbit is it's what you

531
00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:25,439
Speaker 4: do when you're not striking out, you're not hitting homers,

532
00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:27,639
Speaker 4: and for most people, they're not in control. It's gonna

533
00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:30,200
Speaker 4: lie about three hundred, and if you got much over

534
00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:32,919
Speaker 4: three hundred, you're lucky as a hitter. But some people

535
00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:36,639
Speaker 4: make their own path. Bogarts is constantly a three thirty

536
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:40,840
Speaker 4: tie pitter. He was unlucky by his standards last year,

537
00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:42,760
Speaker 4: so maybe that has to do with it. I mean,

538
00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:45,080
Speaker 4: to me, Bogarts is a guy who's so well spread

539
00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:47,399
Speaker 4: in the categories that he just keeps filling in a

540
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:49,320
Speaker 4: little bit here and there. A couple of years ago,

541
00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:51,560
Speaker 4: I used to take him in the fourth round. Now,

542
00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:54,320
Speaker 4: back then he had a lot more power. He would

543
00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:56,960
Speaker 4: be more like a twenty five thirty homer guy. Now

544
00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:59,480
Speaker 4: we're talking more eighteen to twenty. But the stone bases

545
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:01,400
Speaker 4: are still there. He's still gonna have a two eighty

546
00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:03,080
Speaker 4: plus batting average. Even if you don't think he's a

547
00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:05,720
Speaker 4: three hundred guy anymore. And the only thing I worry

548
00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:08,280
Speaker 4: about with him though is the RBI and run bass.

549
00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:11,440
Speaker 4: Padre's lineup is not that good and they just lost

550
00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:13,960
Speaker 4: Juan Soto. It's gonna be a lot worse. So I

551
00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:14,920
Speaker 4: struggle with that.

552
00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:17,680
Speaker 1: I'm not aving for the opening of the season potentially

553
00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:18,200
Speaker 1: too right.

554
00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:20,960
Speaker 4: And Machado might not be there right and maybe Tatis

555
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:23,879
Speaker 4: will get suspended again, maybe he'll break both shoulders.

556
00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:25,920
Speaker 2: Who knows what will happen with Tatis there.

557
00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:29,760
Speaker 1: I mean, that's a negative web by Padres fans. I

558
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:31,520
Speaker 1: apologize of half a uriald coach.

559
00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:33,640
Speaker 2: No, I just I just don't know what what's gonna

560
00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:34,679
Speaker 2: be with all that. You never know.

561
00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:37,320
Speaker 1: By the way, Aurial numbers coming from our own Wonky Penguin,

562
00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:39,679
Speaker 1: Kelly Kirby, so they are not to be disputed. Just

563
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:43,879
Speaker 1: so you know she does sure, Wonky, I learned the

564
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:45,880
Speaker 1: hard way. Never ever go against the penguin.

565
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:49,439
Speaker 3: Ario. Would you rather spend a fourth round pick on

566
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:54,040
Speaker 3: CJ Abrams or uh not doing the mouth properly? An

567
00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:56,280
Speaker 3: eighth round, ninth round Xander Bogart's you know what I'm

568
00:24:56,280 --> 00:24:58,239
Speaker 3: getting at? Were at value, Who would you rather have

569
00:24:58,280 --> 00:24:59,440
Speaker 3: Abrams or Billguarts?

570
00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:02,560
Speaker 4: So it's Bogarts so compared to where he's going, Bogart

571
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:05,160
Speaker 4: still is a little value. I like plenty of other

572
00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:07,879
Speaker 4: people than him at this spot. So for me, in

573
00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:10,080
Speaker 4: another one of these guys that in a draft, I

574
00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:12,320
Speaker 4: don't like Bogarts, but in an auction where you can

575
00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:14,760
Speaker 4: just chip the two three dollars values and getting it,

576
00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:17,439
Speaker 4: he's better. I don't like Abrams. Abrams to me is

577
00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 4: more of a one dimensional guy as well. If he

578
00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:24,240
Speaker 4: doesn't succeed in Washington's not that great. You might lose

579
00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:26,399
Speaker 4: a lot of value from the stone bases. I'm not

580
00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:29,480
Speaker 4: as high on him as most other people, so maybe

581
00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:31,440
Speaker 4: I'm just partial against him.

582
00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 2: I do prefer Bogarts to him. Though.

583
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:35,399
Speaker 1: It's so weird because last year Welsh that was a

584
00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:36,920
Speaker 1: guy that we were all in on because he was

585
00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 1: so cheap, and now he's so expensive that I'm kind

586
00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 1: of burial. Is where I'm almost like ooh, like I

587
00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:44,000
Speaker 1: think it's great that we were right, but now we

588
00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:46,760
Speaker 1: were so right that I almost feel like this might

589
00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:48,120
Speaker 1: be wrong looking at I.

590
00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:50,720
Speaker 3: Think you have to you have to pick and choose

591
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 3: your spots. When you pay this year for last year's stats,

592
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 3: and I usually say that a lot.

593
00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:58,080
Speaker 1: Like it's and well, it's hard to do with a

594
00:25:58,080 --> 00:25:59,080
Speaker 1: guy who did it for a half.

595
00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:00,040
Speaker 3: No, no, I understand that.

596
00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:01,719
Speaker 1: One half of a season, as opposed to a guy

597
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:03,800
Speaker 1: who's done for two or three years, you know, or

598
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:06,000
Speaker 1: or slowly kind of has built on it. I think

599
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:08,600
Speaker 1: the Abrams jump is the And.

600
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:10,720
Speaker 2: The other thing I want to say is that this year.

601
00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:13,880
Speaker 4: In the last couple of years, stolen bases were scarce

602
00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:16,440
Speaker 4: and we all had to pay premium for stone bases

603
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 4: and are for some reason, the mindset is pay for

604
00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:21,639
Speaker 4: stolen bases, you gotta pay a premium. Well, you do

605
00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:25,320
Speaker 4: the math. There are plenty. The stolen based premium shouldn't exist.

606
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:27,120
Speaker 4: Like we're back to where the way it was seven

607
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:29,760
Speaker 4: years ago. We are just value them as normal. You

608
00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:32,000
Speaker 4: don't have to push up any one single category. So

609
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:35,280
Speaker 4: I think people who are picking Abrams that early still

610
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:37,800
Speaker 4: have that mindset of you gotta get steals, you gotta

611
00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 4: get steals. It's not the case, and that's why he's overvalued.

612
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:43,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, it's interesting. It's like, uh, I always

613
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:46,120
Speaker 3: find fantasy people are always trying to kind of mitigate

614
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:48,159
Speaker 3: values of stuff. People are like, I don't want to

615
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:49,840
Speaker 3: do saves, Let's do save holds, And people like I

616
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:51,439
Speaker 3: don't want to do like stolen bases. Let's do like

617
00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:54,919
Speaker 3: net stolen bases and stuff. And it's like MLB almost

618
00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:57,720
Speaker 3: just bottomed out stolen bases by being like, we're gonna

619
00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:00,000
Speaker 3: make them a little bit closer now everybody can steal them,

620
00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:02,440
Speaker 3: and it's made the value, it changes a tiny.

621
00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:04,040
Speaker 1: Bit, enhance the game again, it's made it a lot

622
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:06,080
Speaker 1: of fun. And I was just going back six guys

623
00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:08,760
Speaker 1: two years ago, still thirty bases last year over fifteen,

624
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:10,240
Speaker 1: Like that's the same jump.

625
00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:11,840
Speaker 3: You know, there's still a lot on the hopper. Two

626
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:13,919
Speaker 3: guys behind me if you're watching on the video, well

627
00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:15,640
Speaker 3: that was a lot of hopper. But like, well those

628
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:17,360
Speaker 3: guys were well, Wit and Carol were goold last year.

629
00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:19,760
Speaker 1: But like also just looking at just the baseline of

630
00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:22,280
Speaker 1: stolen bases, all the guys were still twenty last year,

631
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:24,360
Speaker 1: you know, in that range too. It was just spectacular

632
00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:27,040
Speaker 1: to see that athleticism back in the game, the excitement

633
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:29,080
Speaker 1: back in the game too. And then and look all

634
00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:31,520
Speaker 1: of it worked last year. I know some people were hesitant.

635
00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:33,919
Speaker 1: We were very bullish about the rules changes, and you

636
00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:35,880
Speaker 1: know what, I think we can all agree looking back

637
00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:37,560
Speaker 1: on it, they were good, by the way, everybody. If

638
00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:39,760
Speaker 1: you're looking to get a handle on all these players

639
00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:42,080
Speaker 1: were talking about and see where they're being ryank currently,

640
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:44,200
Speaker 1: always head over to fancypros dot com. Click on the

641
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:47,040
Speaker 1: MLB tab. You can see the expert consensus ranks and

642
00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:48,879
Speaker 1: you could also start running your mock drafts too on

643
00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:51,199
Speaker 1: draft Wizard there. So start to get a handle on

644
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:53,200
Speaker 1: some of these things. Welshy, don't you take the outfielders

645
00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:54,280
Speaker 1: here we're going to talk about next.

646
00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:57,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, well this one. Speaking of stolen bases, one of

647
00:27:57,119 --> 00:27:59,159
Speaker 3: the big arguments I would have made last year and

648
00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:00,840
Speaker 3: probably made over the last couple of years, is when

649
00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:02,879
Speaker 3: you're gonna invest and try to get the stolen bases,

650
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:04,480
Speaker 3: the best thing that you can do is get those

651
00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:06,600
Speaker 3: core players that you know you can trust in. You're

652
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:10,160
Speaker 3: not getting Albatross's that's changing a little bit. But here's

653
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:12,440
Speaker 3: one of those guys. Here's one of those guys where

654
00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:14,080
Speaker 3: you want someone that does a little bit of everything

655
00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:16,120
Speaker 3: that pops out to me. So let me throw out

656
00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:18,879
Speaker 3: before I mentioned the player, I looked at ATC there

657
00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:23,120
Speaker 3: were four players for the outfield position that were projected

658
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:26,200
Speaker 3: to go twenty twenty or better with a two eighty

659
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:28,600
Speaker 3: batting average or higher. By the way, I may have

660
00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:31,040
Speaker 3: actually had all, I might have not just been outfield here,

661
00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:34,719
Speaker 3: But there are four players projected again twenty twenty two

662
00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:37,160
Speaker 3: eighty or higher batting average. Three of those players going

663
00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:40,719
Speaker 3: in the first round Ronald Acunya, Kyle Tucker, and Julio Rodriguez.

664
00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:44,520
Speaker 3: The fourth Michael Harris. Current ADP as of January first

665
00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:47,720
Speaker 3: on NFBC is thirty four. So in a fifteen team

666
00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:51,000
Speaker 3: league that is in the third round, is Harris Ario

667
00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:54,400
Speaker 3: Cohen one of the better draft day deals that people

668
00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:55,480
Speaker 3: should be taking a look at.

669
00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:59,160
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, I think your analysis is great, And rarely

670
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:01,920
Speaker 4: do I bring up an undervalued guy who's going in

671
00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:05,120
Speaker 4: the third rounds. I usually focus on seven, tenth, fourteen

672
00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:08,200
Speaker 4: to eleventh, you know, but third round Michael Harris, this

673
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:11,760
Speaker 4: is a guy who could be first round value. You're

674
00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 4: essentially getting a five category player and you don't have

675
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:18,600
Speaker 4: to pay the first second round prices here. I think

676
00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:20,840
Speaker 4: the reason why he's going lower is because he just

677
00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:23,360
Speaker 4: did not amass enough playing time last year. To be

678
00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:25,880
Speaker 4: in that conversation, right, he only had five hundred of

679
00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:28,080
Speaker 4: bats last year, only had four hundred bats the year before,

680
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:31,720
Speaker 4: but the rate of production has been spectacular. You also

681
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 4: only had fifty seven RBIs last year, but he bats

682
00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:38,760
Speaker 4: in the middle of fantastic Atlanta lineup that is going

683
00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:41,240
Speaker 4: to produce runs, So that number is going to go

684
00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:44,200
Speaker 4: sky high to the mid eighties at least. We're talking

685
00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:46,760
Speaker 4: a huge base in every category twenty twenty.

686
00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:50,000
Speaker 2: He might even go thirty thirty if you squint.

687
00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:53,640
Speaker 4: Here love it and there's nothing about his profile that

688
00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:56,960
Speaker 4: looks bad. There's very little downside to him other than

689
00:29:57,160 --> 00:29:59,840
Speaker 4: getting injury, which is flukey to begin with. Michael ha

690
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:03,840
Speaker 4: is a potential first round guy. Really like his value.

691
00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:05,200
Speaker 3: Huge draft day target for me.

692
00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:08,040
Speaker 1: I have been doing this lot woman last year. Welsh

693
00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:09,400
Speaker 1: in the first half of the season two, I mean,

694
00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:12,120
Speaker 1: this guy was people the panic mode.

695
00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 3: Oh my god, I mean that's that's fantasy. That's a

696
00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:17,080
Speaker 3: common fantasy. Oh sophomore slump and blah blah blah. But

697
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:19,120
Speaker 3: guess what, you should feel even better because he broke

698
00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 3: back through it. That's a huge sign of what we

699
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:23,960
Speaker 3: want when we're not paying for those previous stats. I

700
00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:26,760
Speaker 3: have a lot of early builds where my I want

701
00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:28,520
Speaker 3: my stolen bases, but I've been getting a lot of

702
00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:31,360
Speaker 3: Freddy Freeman's Corey Seegers in round ones and twos. If

703
00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:34,160
Speaker 3: I can get Michael Harris after that, you're doing yourself

704
00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:36,840
Speaker 3: wonders because you're not hurting your batting average, you're getting

705
00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:39,760
Speaker 3: stolen bases, you're adding to your homers. I view Michael

706
00:30:39,800 --> 00:30:42,320
Speaker 3: Harris as a great core piece to whatever you did.

707
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:45,320
Speaker 3: You do not have to have taken Corey Seger Freddy

708
00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:48,320
Speaker 3: Freeman to justify Seeger. It's a Harris. You could have

709
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:51,000
Speaker 3: taken Julio and then another stolen based guy in the

710
00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 3: second round, and I'm still fine with it. You can

711
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:55,200
Speaker 3: never have enough outfielders, and I think he's kind of

712
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:58,200
Speaker 3: a really good core piece as far as a draft goes.

713
00:30:58,400 --> 00:31:00,800
Speaker 1: Masatak Yoshida another outfield I know we wanted to talk

714
00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:03,280
Speaker 1: about last year, a really solid rookie season for him,

715
00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:06,520
Speaker 1: seventy one run score, fifteen homers. I see your projections

716
00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:08,280
Speaker 1: here along with Steamers and some other ones here in

717
00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 1: the ATC. A stolen basis two hit two eighty nine

718
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:13,360
Speaker 1: is their potential here for him to build on this.

719
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:15,800
Speaker 1: I know basically what you're giving us here at ATC

720
00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:18,520
Speaker 1: is kind of the the baseline of what you saw

721
00:31:18,600 --> 00:31:20,320
Speaker 1: last season, which is all we have to go on

722
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:23,960
Speaker 1: because it's very small sample size. It's one season for Yashidah.

723
00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 1: But at the same time, you look at maybe Trevor

724
00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:27,600
Speaker 1: Story coming back in this line up, maybe Tristan cass

725
00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 1: is taking a step forward. Do you think that this

726
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:33,000
Speaker 1: is a player here where maybe there is another gear

727
00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:35,600
Speaker 1: or do you think where he's currently being drafted is

728
00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:36,960
Speaker 1: enough of a value where it doesn't matter.

729
00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:38,000
Speaker 2: Really hard to say.

730
00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:40,400
Speaker 4: I think this is more art than science because we're

731
00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:43,320
Speaker 4: talking about a foreign player coming over, adjusting to a

732
00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 4: new league, and by all means, I think his first

733
00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:48,520
Speaker 4: year was very successful. He had two eighty nine, he

734
00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:52,400
Speaker 4: knocked in seventy two runs, even stole some bases, half

735
00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:56,120
Speaker 4: a dozen homers. I can't tell you whether there's much

736
00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:59,560
Speaker 4: growth ahead. I can't tell you whether from the numbers

737
00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:02,840
Speaker 4: I should say whether this was just an adjustment year

738
00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:05,360
Speaker 4: and there's more or maybe he's just the same. I

739
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:07,400
Speaker 4: do think though it's it's a good floor, like I

740
00:32:07,440 --> 00:32:09,200
Speaker 4: don't see him getting worse. I think this is not

741
00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:11,560
Speaker 4: a career year. He's gonna be the same or get better.

742
00:32:11,880 --> 00:32:14,120
Speaker 4: So from that side is only upside. You only have

743
00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:16,800
Speaker 4: to pay a twelfth round price for him, and he

744
00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:19,960
Speaker 4: could be worth more. I can see the payaff of

745
00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 4: twenty homers, ten steals, three hundred. I can see that payoff.

746
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:25,400
Speaker 4: Will the Red Sox have enough players to knock in?

747
00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:26,160
Speaker 2: I don't know.

748
00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:29,760
Speaker 4: We'll find out, so I'm lukewarm on him. I'm more, Hey,

749
00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:31,920
Speaker 4: do I like the art? What do you guys take

750
00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:32,720
Speaker 4: on your sheet?

751
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:35,080
Speaker 3: Well, actually I want to. I mean to reflip a

752
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:37,560
Speaker 3: question back to you. But do you notice because there's

753
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:40,240
Speaker 3: a trend here on what you've identified for us, for

754
00:32:40,360 --> 00:32:43,280
Speaker 3: undervalued players, there's batting average. Batting average seems to be

755
00:32:43,320 --> 00:32:45,000
Speaker 3: the key here outside of Nolan Gormant. If we don't

756
00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:47,360
Speaker 3: count the catchers because they're they don't count. They't they're

757
00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:50,680
Speaker 3: not real fantasy players. But we look at everybody, but

758
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:54,280
Speaker 3: Nolan Gorman is high batting average. Do you think, maybe,

759
00:32:54,840 --> 00:32:57,280
Speaker 3: like how you project and see maybe from a dollar

760
00:32:57,440 --> 00:33:00,520
Speaker 3: perspective on players, that batting average is the key marker

761
00:33:00,560 --> 00:33:04,360
Speaker 3: to identifying undervalue players or is that built around the

762
00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:08,520
Speaker 3: floor and finding floor in fantasy being more important because

763
00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:12,400
Speaker 3: Yoshida absolutely fits this marker. Could he be twenty ten? Yeah,

764
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:14,720
Speaker 3: on a good like a guy that hits the ball

765
00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:17,120
Speaker 3: a whole bunch starts to you know, add a little

766
00:33:17,160 --> 00:33:19,320
Speaker 3: bit more barrel, hit the ball a little bit harder.

767
00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:21,520
Speaker 3: You can see the floor of a guy that makes

768
00:33:21,560 --> 00:33:24,120
Speaker 3: tons of contact get to twenty ten. That's why Luis

769
00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:26,000
Speaker 3: rise is so frustrating. How can a guy hit the

770
00:33:26,080 --> 00:33:28,600
Speaker 3: ball all the time, more than anybody and never get

771
00:33:28,640 --> 00:33:30,640
Speaker 3: the ball in the air. I can see the path,

772
00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:33,080
Speaker 3: but I'm finding the interesting trend that all of your

773
00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:36,400
Speaker 3: undervalued players are centered highly around batting average.

774
00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:38,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a great question. I think it's a little

775
00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:39,040
Speaker 2: bit of both.

776
00:33:39,120 --> 00:33:42,200
Speaker 4: I mean, I use a Z score method of evaluating

777
00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:44,760
Speaker 4: how what dollar is he worth, what round he should

778
00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:47,200
Speaker 4: go to? And Z score methods generally do give a

779
00:33:47,240 --> 00:33:49,560
Speaker 4: little bit more bump to the rate stats than they

780
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:52,680
Speaker 4: do the counting stats. Somebody who do the SGP will

781
00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:56,760
Speaker 4: count the home runs a lot more, right, not so much,

782
00:33:56,960 --> 00:33:57,840
Speaker 4: just a little bit of a bump.

783
00:33:57,920 --> 00:33:59,800
Speaker 2: So maybe a dollar or two is due to that.

784
00:34:00,200 --> 00:34:01,840
Speaker 2: But I do think it's mostly market driven.

785
00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:04,920
Speaker 4: I don't think that the market properly values the worth

786
00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:07,560
Speaker 4: of the banning average, the stability of having a great

787
00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:11,680
Speaker 4: contact rate that facilitates that, and they're overvaluing the stolen

788
00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:14,319
Speaker 4: bases in general, as I've mentioned, So I think it's

789
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:16,279
Speaker 4: a little bit of both, but mostly market driven.

790
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:18,000
Speaker 2: As to the trend we're seeing, let's.

791
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:19,440
Speaker 3: Go take a look at some starting pitchers you got.

792
00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:21,720
Speaker 3: We got multiple starting pitchers and a couple of relievers

793
00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:23,640
Speaker 3: we can dive into. The biggest one has been one

794
00:34:23,719 --> 00:34:26,200
Speaker 3: of the big risers. There's a couple in NFBC people

795
00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:27,960
Speaker 3: have been tweeting about there's a couple guys that are

796
00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:30,600
Speaker 3: moving up in drafts. Pablo Lopez has been one. I've

797
00:34:30,640 --> 00:34:32,680
Speaker 3: been kind on the George Kirby train. The other one

798
00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:35,800
Speaker 3: has been Logan Webb, who you identified as one of

799
00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:39,719
Speaker 3: those big risers. Since January first, he's been SP seventeen

800
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:43,480
Speaker 3: but the sixth best ERA according to ATC coming up

801
00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:46,600
Speaker 3: this year. So based on cost and him moving up

802
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:49,080
Speaker 3: a little bit, be curious as far as buzz guys go,

803
00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:52,320
Speaker 3: how much how undervalued is Logan web and when you

804
00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:54,799
Speaker 3: compare the cost of where Pablo Lopez is going now

805
00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:57,839
Speaker 3: and his strikeout potential versus the floor with Logan Web.

806
00:34:58,200 --> 00:34:59,919
Speaker 3: Who would you rather have? So I threw two questions.

807
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:02,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, you guys talked a lot about Pablo Lopez on

808
00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:04,520
Speaker 4: your last show, and you did compare them a little

809
00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:07,520
Speaker 4: bit to Web. Lopez going in the third round, Web

810
00:35:07,600 --> 00:35:09,920
Speaker 4: going in the fifth round. That's a huge, huge difference

811
00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:11,640
Speaker 4: in where you have to take him. You know, if

812
00:35:11,880 --> 00:35:14,239
Speaker 4: you if you got Web instead of Lopez, the hitter

813
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:16,279
Speaker 4: you can get instead of getting a z h A

814
00:35:16,440 --> 00:35:20,480
Speaker 4: Jazz Chisseholm, you can upgrade to bobashett I like that

815
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:23,960
Speaker 4: hitter swap much better than the downgrade from Lopez to Web.

816
00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:26,200
Speaker 4: One thing I look for in starting pitching when I'm

817
00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:30,080
Speaker 4: drafting is a lowlyra and a low whip. I want

818
00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:33,799
Speaker 4: to stabilize my ratios as quick as possible. The strikeouts.

819
00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:36,839
Speaker 4: You can find some guys later on you can who

820
00:35:37,120 --> 00:35:39,160
Speaker 4: just give up a lot of runs but do strikeout.

821
00:35:39,480 --> 00:35:41,719
Speaker 4: But it is so hard if you're especially if you're

822
00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:43,560
Speaker 4: a roto league, if you've got to blow up in

823
00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:46,600
Speaker 4: your staff, so hard to get that down right. You

824
00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:49,800
Speaker 4: can add the counting stats, but to bring that ratios

825
00:35:49,840 --> 00:35:52,560
Speaker 4: down is so hard. So in terms of roster build.

826
00:35:52,880 --> 00:35:55,200
Speaker 4: Logan Web is far more important than you think, And

827
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:57,920
Speaker 4: for drafting, I really really like him. And look at

828
00:35:57,960 --> 00:36:01,960
Speaker 4: this really even ace go you at number two prices

829
00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:05,080
Speaker 4: and look at his volume two hundred and sixteen innings

830
00:36:05,120 --> 00:36:08,360
Speaker 4: pitch last year, nearly two hundred strikeouts. It's not like

831
00:36:08,440 --> 00:36:12,200
Speaker 4: the strikeouts are not there very high on logan Web here.

832
00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:14,359
Speaker 4: I think he's a great base that you can get

833
00:36:14,440 --> 00:36:17,560
Speaker 4: without getting a strider and without getting a Cole or

834
00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:21,920
Speaker 4: Luis Castillo. I think he hides. And the only quibble

835
00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:24,080
Speaker 4: you can say is, well he pitches in a pitcher's park.

836
00:36:24,160 --> 00:36:25,520
Speaker 4: Maybe that's why, Well.

837
00:36:26,239 --> 00:36:27,040
Speaker 1: He's still pitching there.

838
00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:29,319
Speaker 2: He's still pitching. There's still there.

839
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:31,000
Speaker 1: That's always the dumbest thing. While he pitches on a

840
00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:33,520
Speaker 1: pitcher of oh, so is he pitching there? This year?

841
00:36:33,520 --> 00:36:35,400
Speaker 1: You know, I did the write ups for the all

842
00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:37,400
Speaker 1: the pitcher profiles for the Black Book this year, and

843
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:38,960
Speaker 1: logan Web was the guy that just stood out to me.

844
00:36:39,080 --> 00:36:40,799
Speaker 1: Is that huge value too? So I'm glad to see

845
00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:42,279
Speaker 1: that you think the same thing, because it's all the

846
00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:44,320
Speaker 1: same thing you're talking about, which is why am I

847
00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:47,680
Speaker 1: foregoing early hitters in my drafts when I can get

848
00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:50,960
Speaker 1: Logan Web and build up a staff of two one

849
00:36:51,040 --> 00:36:53,880
Speaker 1: A type guys and you know, instead of Ranold, just

850
00:36:53,920 --> 00:36:56,520
Speaker 1: that one guy and still have a great offense. Logan

851
00:36:56,560 --> 00:36:58,399
Speaker 1: Web is that perfect guy in that perfect fit again.

852
00:36:58,440 --> 00:37:00,719
Speaker 1: You can go check that workout on Amazon. By the way,

853
00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:04,120
Speaker 1: New Fantasy Baseball Black Book. But let's move on here.

854
00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 1: And by the way, Welsh, also, when you were talking

855
00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:08,880
Speaker 1: about ariol and you guys were nerding out there for

856
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:11,600
Speaker 1: a second and that last segment, it took everything my

857
00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:13,680
Speaker 1: being not to ask him about the X plug. But

858
00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:14,240
Speaker 1: I didn't.

859
00:37:14,719 --> 00:37:17,040
Speaker 3: Oh, I guess the plug I was creating.

860
00:37:17,160 --> 00:37:19,960
Speaker 1: So we created some stats last year to see if

861
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:22,680
Speaker 1: we could trip up the experts of the fantasy baseball community.

862
00:37:22,719 --> 00:37:24,960
Speaker 1: Because there's so many deep stats that we just made

863
00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:25,960
Speaker 1: up a few just to see.

864
00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:29,719
Speaker 3: Mario would be the worst one to be like, I

865
00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:31,520
Speaker 3: why didn't do it? Yeah, we'd be like, so what

866
00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:32,719
Speaker 3: is the X plug of him?

867
00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:35,640
Speaker 1: And be like Nick Pollock's reaction was the best one

868
00:37:35,680 --> 00:37:37,600
Speaker 1: of all of them. I can't wait to ask more

869
00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:39,600
Speaker 1: about that. Well, I'll be on Pitchcon this week, all

870
00:37:39,640 --> 00:37:41,000
Speaker 1: of us. We'll have some fun on that. I want

871
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:42,719
Speaker 1: to talk about two other pictures. I'm gonna talk about

872
00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:44,719
Speaker 1: Kent to my Aida Welsh. You're familiar with Kenton my

873
00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:47,080
Speaker 1: Ada from last year? Sure you sure you know who

874
00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:47,320
Speaker 1: he is?

875
00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:48,239
Speaker 4: Ye?

876
00:37:48,360 --> 00:37:49,080
Speaker 3: Detroit Tigers.

877
00:37:49,320 --> 00:37:52,600
Speaker 1: Detroit Tiger's Now that's right new spot here. So he's

878
00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:55,040
Speaker 1: coming off a year one hundred four innings, pitch one

879
00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:57,320
Speaker 1: hundred and seventeen strikeouts for twenty three e l A.

880
00:37:57,880 --> 00:37:59,800
Speaker 1: Then you've also got another guy who's undervalue to and

881
00:37:59,840 --> 00:38:03,560
Speaker 1: you Darvish. Now you Darbish came off a rocky season,

882
00:38:03,640 --> 00:38:06,560
Speaker 1: Let's be honest. But we've seen Darviish have rocky seasons

883
00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:08,600
Speaker 1: and then bounce back, which I think is so interesting.

884
00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:10,880
Speaker 1: He's kind of like that. You know, he's like that boxer.

885
00:38:10,920 --> 00:38:12,400
Speaker 1: He's getting knocked down and every now and then he

886
00:38:12,440 --> 00:38:15,520
Speaker 1: gets up and he punches somebody else out. Does Darvish

887
00:38:15,600 --> 00:38:18,400
Speaker 1: have another one of those seasons in where he possibly

888
00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:20,359
Speaker 1: gets back up off the mat and starts to throw

889
00:38:20,400 --> 00:38:23,279
Speaker 1: haymakers again? Or is ken to Maida the better fit

890
00:38:23,360 --> 00:38:25,400
Speaker 1: here despite the fact that, well you are moving from

891
00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:28,160
Speaker 1: Minnesota to Detroit and that lineup probably still more of

892
00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:28,880
Speaker 1: a work in progress.

893
00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:31,320
Speaker 4: I mean, these are dark throws at the end of drafts.

894
00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:34,000
Speaker 4: These are your last couple of starting pitchers. You want

895
00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 4: upside at the end. Ken Tamida, I don't know if

896
00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:40,960
Speaker 4: he has fantastic upside anymore. The only amazing year he

897
00:38:41,040 --> 00:38:43,120
Speaker 4: had was that COVID year. But you know you didn't

898
00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:46,120
Speaker 4: have to pitch all that much there, you know, Mada healthy.

899
00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:48,320
Speaker 4: I don't know, can he give more than one hundred innings?

900
00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:51,800
Speaker 4: Probably not, So he shows us a little bit of

901
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:55,480
Speaker 4: a value, But I'm not that interested. Darvish, I mean,

902
00:38:55,520 --> 00:38:57,359
Speaker 4: he've got upside. I don't know that he's a sub

903
00:38:57,480 --> 00:39:00,200
Speaker 4: for E guy anymore, though I worry about that. But

904
00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:03,160
Speaker 4: the strikeouts are still there. He still got way, way

905
00:39:03,280 --> 00:39:05,840
Speaker 4: plenty of good ability to get batters out. So to

906
00:39:05,920 --> 00:39:08,320
Speaker 4: get a guy who, if he pitches one hundred and

907
00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:11,080
Speaker 4: eighty innings, maybe one hundred and eighty strikeouts, that to

908
00:39:11,160 --> 00:39:12,920
Speaker 4: me is very interesting at the end. And I'll throw

909
00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:15,239
Speaker 4: in one other pitcher who's going somewhere at the end,

910
00:39:15,280 --> 00:39:18,839
Speaker 4: like if Nestor Cortes. Nestor Cortes is a guy who

911
00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:21,040
Speaker 4: was a twenty three dollars pitcher just two years ago.

912
00:39:21,440 --> 00:39:24,040
Speaker 4: Forget last year that was all injury. If he's back

913
00:39:24,080 --> 00:39:27,040
Speaker 4: and healthy and the Yankees haven't really aggressively shot the

914
00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:28,920
Speaker 4: starting pitcher market other than Stroman.

915
00:39:29,520 --> 00:39:30,759
Speaker 2: I think they believe in him.

916
00:39:31,000 --> 00:39:32,440
Speaker 1: I hate by the way. I think that's a terrible

917
00:39:32,480 --> 00:39:34,359
Speaker 1: move for them. But that's a story for a draw

918
00:39:34,480 --> 00:39:34,919
Speaker 1: ball pitcher.

919
00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:36,319
Speaker 2: I don't know, Well that's them.

920
00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:39,840
Speaker 4: But Nestor Cortes, he's a guy who could earn a

921
00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:42,440
Speaker 4: lot of value. And just a thing about getting these

922
00:39:42,480 --> 00:39:44,000
Speaker 4: guys who you don't know I will last all year.

923
00:39:44,080 --> 00:39:47,320
Speaker 4: Let's say you Darbish comes out and throws fireball stuff

924
00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:49,840
Speaker 4: and really has a great two months. If you're in

925
00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:52,319
Speaker 4: the trading league, trade him, then you know, just get

926
00:39:52,440 --> 00:39:55,120
Speaker 4: rid of these guys, unload and get something else, right.

927
00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:57,400
Speaker 4: You want to take these old vets who show something

928
00:39:57,520 --> 00:39:59,680
Speaker 4: and say, hey, look at him before they get injured.

929
00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:02,399
Speaker 4: Always drafted Clayton kersher what traded me after two months

930
00:40:02,760 --> 00:40:04,479
Speaker 4: and one time he got hurt the day after.

931
00:40:05,680 --> 00:40:08,880
Speaker 1: That's that's knowing the path and look, I think that's

932
00:40:08,880 --> 00:40:11,200
Speaker 1: a really important thing. You're talking about knowing who these

933
00:40:11,239 --> 00:40:13,400
Speaker 1: guys are. And you said Mayad is one hundred inning picture, right,

934
00:40:13,400 --> 00:40:14,560
Speaker 1: So if you get fifty out of him in the

935
00:40:14,600 --> 00:40:17,000
Speaker 1: first few months, you start to go Okay, Maybe I'm

936
00:40:17,040 --> 00:40:20,240
Speaker 1: hitting my limit here, and you can't ever think everything's

937
00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:22,320
Speaker 1: going to work out, because more often than not, it doesn't.

938
00:40:22,320 --> 00:40:25,000
Speaker 1: And speaking about working out too, you know, Ariol and

939
00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:28,160
Speaker 1: I both are loser met fans and we saw Marcus Stroman,

940
00:40:28,239 --> 00:40:30,640
Speaker 1: and Stroman is a good picture, but he's also a

941
00:40:30,719 --> 00:40:32,640
Speaker 1: big personality and I don't know how that person that

942
00:40:32,840 --> 00:40:33,800
Speaker 1: was going to work in very well with you.

943
00:40:34,719 --> 00:40:36,520
Speaker 4: I have a little beef with him because I think

944
00:40:36,560 --> 00:40:37,920
Speaker 4: I said something to him on Twitter.

945
00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:39,640
Speaker 2: He's very he's by the way, are.

946
00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:41,600
Speaker 1: You blocked by Marcus Stroman? That's very impressive.

947
00:40:41,719 --> 00:40:43,960
Speaker 4: I was not blocked, but I got a picture of

948
00:40:44,080 --> 00:40:47,680
Speaker 4: him with shirtless with his big dog saying I'm gonna

949
00:40:47,680 --> 00:40:53,000
Speaker 4: come and get you. Really yeah, so weird. He hasn't

950
00:40:53,000 --> 00:40:54,879
Speaker 4: tweeted a single thing in the last couple of months.

951
00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:58,840
Speaker 4: I think his agent said, dude, stop it already is terrible.

952
00:40:58,880 --> 00:41:01,120
Speaker 4: Clubhouse guy should have done but you should have.

953
00:41:01,320 --> 00:41:03,520
Speaker 1: You should have tweeted back a shirtless picture of Aerial

954
00:41:03,640 --> 00:41:06,439
Speaker 1: Cohen with whatever pet was available for you and say

955
00:41:06,800 --> 00:41:07,400
Speaker 1: come get.

956
00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:11,200
Speaker 3: Some get rub get rubin, get rubin on lee that

957
00:41:11,960 --> 00:41:12,800
Speaker 3: that was a little.

958
00:41:12,640 --> 00:41:14,200
Speaker 4: That was a little strange. So I have a little

959
00:41:14,200 --> 00:41:16,959
Speaker 4: personal beef with him little but I had.

960
00:41:16,880 --> 00:41:18,239
Speaker 1: No idea we were going to get that story and

961
00:41:18,280 --> 00:41:19,000
Speaker 1: I'm so glad we.

962
00:41:19,360 --> 00:41:21,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's not put the graphic of that up. Please.

963
00:41:21,680 --> 00:41:23,440
Speaker 1: All right, let's looking for that picture right now, you

964
00:41:24,840 --> 00:41:25,799
Speaker 1: aerial cone picture too.

965
00:41:25,960 --> 00:41:28,359
Speaker 3: Let's finish this bad boy off with closers. We'll close

966
00:41:28,400 --> 00:41:30,840
Speaker 3: it out with them. And you identified two players, and

967
00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:33,920
Speaker 3: it's gonna be more of an overarching thing. Evan Phillips

968
00:41:33,960 --> 00:41:38,279
Speaker 3: with the Dodgers pops up really good projected saves I

969
00:41:38,320 --> 00:41:40,920
Speaker 3: think right around thirty e Ra a solid and Tanner

970
00:41:41,040 --> 00:41:43,640
Speaker 3: Scott kind of a lower name obviously with the Marlin.

971
00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:46,879
Speaker 3: Same thing as going on here. But the overarching part

972
00:41:46,920 --> 00:41:49,040
Speaker 3: of this is we also had Hater go to Houston

973
00:41:49,080 --> 00:41:52,399
Speaker 3: and destroy Ryan Presley. We had Stevenson go to La

974
00:41:52,880 --> 00:41:59,439
Speaker 3: which maybe destroys Estevez. But we now know the clerk

975
00:41:59,560 --> 00:42:03,560
Speaker 3: is Okay, there's one, and specifically Evan Phillips. Evan Phillips.

976
00:42:03,640 --> 00:42:06,200
Speaker 3: Now we're a little bit less fearful that anyone's going

977
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:08,840
Speaker 3: to come in. So the thing is, you see higher

978
00:42:08,920 --> 00:42:12,200
Speaker 3: projections on some of these mid tier closers. We have

979
00:42:12,280 --> 00:42:14,640
Speaker 3: an idea what's going on in the closer market. Now

980
00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:19,200
Speaker 3: pretty solidified because of these projections. Does this make you

981
00:42:19,320 --> 00:42:22,800
Speaker 3: want to avoid early closers overall because you're getting some

982
00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:26,640
Speaker 3: pops in that mid tier you know, closer ten, closer

983
00:42:26,760 --> 00:42:28,800
Speaker 3: fifteen type of range. Is that where you want to

984
00:42:28,840 --> 00:42:31,080
Speaker 3: fish because of these projections and now that we know

985
00:42:31,160 --> 00:42:33,800
Speaker 3: the market or is there something else inside of it?

986
00:42:34,400 --> 00:42:36,560
Speaker 4: Well, I've studied closers over the past couple of years,

987
00:42:36,560 --> 00:42:39,080
Speaker 4: and I can tell you that getting the premium league

988
00:42:39,120 --> 00:42:41,879
Speaker 4: closers usually are a bad return on investment. You want

989
00:42:41,920 --> 00:42:45,040
Speaker 4: to get that second tier of guys. Felix Fatista last

990
00:42:45,120 --> 00:42:47,080
Speaker 4: year was like the eighth closer off the board, and

991
00:42:47,200 --> 00:42:49,480
Speaker 4: he was the number one, Right. You don't need to

992
00:42:49,520 --> 00:42:52,080
Speaker 4: get that one, two, three and pay that price. You're

993
00:42:52,120 --> 00:42:54,960
Speaker 4: good with the second tier. Now for Evan Phillips specifically,

994
00:42:55,400 --> 00:42:57,520
Speaker 4: can you guys name who's gonna be the best team

995
00:42:57,560 --> 00:42:58,560
Speaker 4: in baseball next year?

996
00:42:58,719 --> 00:43:02,000
Speaker 3: It's the talking about Dodgers.

997
00:43:02,040 --> 00:43:05,319
Speaker 1: I mean, well, well, I was quiet because how often

998
00:43:05,400 --> 00:43:07,040
Speaker 1: do we ever see the team that is supposed to

999
00:43:07,040 --> 00:43:08,879
Speaker 1: be the best team in baseball actually be the best

1000
00:43:08,880 --> 00:43:12,279
Speaker 1: team in baseball? Well, true enough to see that, I've

1001
00:43:12,320 --> 00:43:13,480
Speaker 1: seen this movie before, but.

1002
00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:15,600
Speaker 3: I know where Ariol's going here. There's the point of you.

1003
00:43:16,560 --> 00:43:17,439
Speaker 2: They're a great team.

1004
00:43:17,520 --> 00:43:18,960
Speaker 4: If you want to get a lot of saves, do

1005
00:43:19,040 --> 00:43:21,080
Speaker 4: you want to get the Oakland closer or do you

1006
00:43:21,120 --> 00:43:22,640
Speaker 4: want to get the Dodgers closer?

1007
00:43:22,920 --> 00:43:23,560
Speaker 2: Ding Ding Ding.

1008
00:43:23,719 --> 00:43:26,839
Speaker 4: It's the Dodgers closer and it's Evan Phillips. So there's

1009
00:43:26,880 --> 00:43:29,680
Speaker 4: a lot of saves going on. And his ratios, I

1010
00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:32,360
Speaker 4: mean last year two oh five e r point eighty

1011
00:43:32,400 --> 00:43:35,080
Speaker 4: three whip, the year before point seven to six whip.

1012
00:43:35,480 --> 00:43:37,759
Speaker 4: I mean he's good. He's on the Dodgers. What more

1013
00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:39,640
Speaker 4: do you need to know? Why is he going the slate?

1014
00:43:39,719 --> 00:43:40,160
Speaker 2: I don't know.

1015
00:43:41,040 --> 00:43:43,719
Speaker 4: It's a slam dunk to me for Phillips and the

1016
00:43:43,800 --> 00:43:46,520
Speaker 4: other guy I like here is Tanner Scott. Just he

1017
00:43:46,920 --> 00:43:49,000
Speaker 4: one hundred and four strike aaps last year there were

1018
00:43:49,080 --> 00:43:52,920
Speaker 4: only three closers who had one hundred strike who had

1019
00:43:52,960 --> 00:43:55,920
Speaker 4: as much as he did in terms of strikeouts. Is

1020
00:43:55,920 --> 00:43:57,960
Speaker 4: a guy who's gonna help you in not just that category,

1021
00:43:57,960 --> 00:44:01,320
Speaker 4: You'll help you in four categories pretty much, Tanner Scott.

1022
00:44:01,360 --> 00:44:02,879
Speaker 2: And he looks to be the guy. He took over

1023
00:44:02,960 --> 00:44:05,120
Speaker 2: the role. He just went with it. Marlins will have

1024
00:44:05,200 --> 00:44:06,320
Speaker 2: a lot of close games.

1025
00:44:07,120 --> 00:44:09,360
Speaker 4: So the because they have a decent pitching staff, so

1026
00:44:09,560 --> 00:44:12,400
Speaker 4: close games even and they shouldn't be bad. You know,

1027
00:44:12,560 --> 00:44:15,960
Speaker 4: playoff team could potentially those are two guys that are undervalued.

1028
00:44:16,480 --> 00:44:20,080
Speaker 1: Check out the ATC projections. They're up right now fangrafts

1029
00:44:20,200 --> 00:44:22,600
Speaker 1: or at rollballer as he said, and also check him

1030
00:44:22,640 --> 00:44:25,320
Speaker 1: out over on X for beefs with Marcus Stroman and

1031
00:44:25,400 --> 00:44:29,280
Speaker 1: other professional baseball players at ATC and why that's Ariel

1032
00:44:29,320 --> 00:44:32,120
Speaker 1: Cohen everybody, Ariel, appreciate your time. It's great to catch

1033
00:44:32,200 --> 00:44:34,920
Speaker 1: up with you, buddy. And give me a win total

1034
00:44:34,960 --> 00:44:38,800
Speaker 1: over under for our Mets this year. Seventy six wins.

1035
00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:42,000
Speaker 2: What do you think over I'm gonna go over seventy eight,

1036
00:44:42,800 --> 00:44:43,439
Speaker 2: seventy eight.

1037
00:44:43,560 --> 00:44:45,480
Speaker 1: They've spoken like a true Met fan. That'll do it

1038
00:44:45,520 --> 00:44:47,600
Speaker 1: for us. But the story of the game goes on

1039
00:44:47,800 --> 00:44:50,560
Speaker 1: for Ariel and the Welsh. I'm Joey p. We'll see

1040
00:44:50,600 --> 00:44:51,560
Speaker 1: you next time, kids,