WEBVTT - Surveillance: Russia Sanctions with Walsh

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along

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<v Speaker 1>with Jonathan Ferroll and Lisa Brownwitz jay Leie. We bring

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<v Speaker 1>you insight from the best and economics, finance, investment and

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<v Speaker 1>international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance and Apple Podcast SoundCloud, Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>dot com and of course on the Bloomberg Termament. And

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<v Speaker 1>now in Washington and with our John Farrell, the Secretary

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<v Speaker 1>of Labor, it's now I'm pleased to say on the

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<v Speaker 1>payrolls report on TV on radio. It's Marty Wolves, the

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<v Speaker 1>U S Secretary of Labor. Mr Secretary, it's great to

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<v Speaker 1>catch out with you, sir. I cannot think of the

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<v Speaker 1>last payrolls report that got this little attention pay rolls

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<v Speaker 1>at six and seventy eight, because we're focused on everything

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<v Speaker 1>now secretly Wolves, your take first of all, and then

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<v Speaker 1>we need to get to the much, much bigger issues worldwide. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I know, you know, a good, solid report, good briade,

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<v Speaker 1>base gains and all sectors pretty happy with that report.

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<v Speaker 1>Clearly we have more work to do. You're absolutely right. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, my heart and prayers go out with the

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<v Speaker 1>people of Ukraine. That that's kind of front and center

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<v Speaker 1>for everybody, uh in the world. The world is certainly

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<v Speaker 1>united behind Ukraine, and uh, you know, hopefully we can

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<v Speaker 1>get back to Hopefully we can get through Ukrainian people

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<v Speaker 1>can get through the challenges they have, and we can

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<v Speaker 1>go back to talking about the economy again. I would

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<v Speaker 1>much prefer to be taking taking strong questions from you

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<v Speaker 1>today about the economy and Ukraine people having peace and

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<v Speaker 1>freedom today. Secondary Welsh, I agree with you. I think

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<v Speaker 1>we all do. Let's get back to those days as

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<v Speaker 1>soon as possible. Right now, as you know that we've

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<v Speaker 1>got to talk about Russia. Microsoft moments ago, in the

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<v Speaker 1>last thirty minutes made the decision to suspend new sounds

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<v Speaker 1>of products and services in Russia. Many companies are doing

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<v Speaker 1>the same thing, whether they need to because of sanctions

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<v Speaker 1>or they choose to because they feel like they have

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<v Speaker 1>an obligation. Do you think so? For you as Secretary

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<v Speaker 1>of Labor and for the administration as well, do American

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<v Speaker 1>employers have a moral obligation to pull back from doing

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<v Speaker 1>business with Russia. I think we have to do whatever

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<v Speaker 1>we can in as many places we can to support

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<v Speaker 1>the Ukrainian people. Uh. You know, the President said it

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<v Speaker 1>at the State of the Union the other night from

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<v Speaker 1>the stage. I think a lot of countries and a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of companies are doing what they need to do.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that as we continue to move as the

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<v Speaker 1>as the conflict continues to move forward, I think that

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<v Speaker 1>there will be a lot more companies in America, and

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<v Speaker 1>not just America, around the world will will be taking

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<v Speaker 1>steps like this against Russia. The refiners in America also

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<v Speaker 1>not touching Russian crew as well. That choosing to pull

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<v Speaker 1>back from that, Secretary Walch, is that a good thing? Yeah? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I think I think you know, as far as the conversations,

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<v Speaker 1>what they're gonna be many conversations. I know that here

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<v Speaker 1>in the United States, Speaker Pelosi, UH, send a mansion.

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<v Speaker 1>Senator Makowski and some other folks you're asking for that, uh.

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<v Speaker 1>And and I'm sure that U the President in the

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<v Speaker 1>White House, we're evaluating the different situations. But again, I

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<v Speaker 1>think that the whole world is going to continue to

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<v Speaker 1>to put sanctions on Russia as we move forward here.

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<v Speaker 1>The pictures on the pictures that we're seeing broadcast from

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine are horrible and bring you when you go after

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<v Speaker 1>buildings with all the people on the schools it's just

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<v Speaker 1>uncalled for. So when refinance pulled back, I guess what

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<v Speaker 1>I'm trying to work out secontarly, Welsh, is that you've

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<v Speaker 1>tried for an energy carve out. A lot of people

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<v Speaker 1>still don't want to touch crude even if there is

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<v Speaker 1>a carve out. I want to understand the message the

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<v Speaker 1>administration is sending right now. Do you want refiners to

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<v Speaker 1>buy that crude or do you want them to step

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<v Speaker 1>back from it? Is that welcome development even though the

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<v Speaker 1>sanctions aren't there. Well, again, I'm not in a position

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<v Speaker 1>to be able to speak on that right now. I

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<v Speaker 1>know that, as the President had laid out, the sanctions

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<v Speaker 1>last week are actually over the last ten days. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>He's been very thoughtful in doing them, working across the

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<v Speaker 1>globe and doing them. And I think those I'm sure

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<v Speaker 1>those conversations are happening right now with world leaders. There's

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<v Speaker 1>a conversation that hasn't happened apparently, and I wonder if

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<v Speaker 1>it has happened subsequently, I couldn't get this information from

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<v Speaker 1>the Treasury Department in the last hour, so allow me

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<v Speaker 1>to put this question to you. This came from the

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<v Speaker 1>Devon Energy CEO, big employer here in America, Crude Explorer,

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<v Speaker 1>this is what they said to us this week. Secondary

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<v Speaker 1>Welsh quote. I'm a little mystified that there hasn't been

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<v Speaker 1>some dialogue. If they were to reach out you, the

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<v Speaker 1>administration to them and maybe be a little bit more collaborative,

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<v Speaker 1>it might provide some cover cover from investors who might

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<v Speaker 1>be disappointed their boosting output. Have you reached out to

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<v Speaker 1>any employers in the old patch to boost production to

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<v Speaker 1>this point, I'm not aware of any any conversation, but

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<v Speaker 1>I'm sure that their conversation is going on. Again. I

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<v Speaker 1>have not been part of those have not been party

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<v Speaker 1>to those conversations. Uh. If asked and when asked and

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<v Speaker 1>when told to you by by the President, I will

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<v Speaker 1>absolutely be having those conversations. You have to wait to

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<v Speaker 1>be told to to have that conversation. Well, certainly this

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<v Speaker 1>is a this is a very coordinated effort. When you

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<v Speaker 1>look at what what what what's been going on here

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<v Speaker 1>with the with the with the powers of the countries

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<v Speaker 1>across the globe working collectively together, we've never seen I

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<v Speaker 1>shouldn't say never, I mean having the strength of NATO

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<v Speaker 1>seems so close together, really amazing and working collectively together

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<v Speaker 1>so again, I think there's been there's been a process

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<v Speaker 1>here as we move forward. Crewed right now, w t

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<v Speaker 1>I at one TOURVE eighty seven. You know as well

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<v Speaker 1>as I know that wages haven't been keeping up with inflation.

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<v Speaker 1>Is there anything you can do in the short term.

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<v Speaker 1>When we had from the President earlier this week in

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<v Speaker 1>the State of the Union, there were some big long

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<v Speaker 1>term goals, long term investments that he wanted to make

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<v Speaker 1>to build out the productive capacity of the economy. Is

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<v Speaker 1>the only thing we can do in the short term

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<v Speaker 1>here secondary walls, I think, I think if if you're

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<v Speaker 1>trying around inflation, I think what's happening here is I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>we're in the midst of a worldwide pandemic. Certainly that's

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<v Speaker 1>one we had the midst of dealing with supply chain issues.

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<v Speaker 1>Now now we have a major conflict in the world

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<v Speaker 1>that that that we're all eyes of the world are

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<v Speaker 1>on the Ukrainian people in Ukraine. And I think that

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<v Speaker 1>as we move forward here in the question earlier, as

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<v Speaker 1>oil supply, as oil supply gets cut back from Russia,

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<v Speaker 1>if that's what ultimately happens, we're going to see increasing

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<v Speaker 1>gas prices. And I think that there's a point here

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<v Speaker 1>that we have to we have to just continue to

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<v Speaker 1>move forward. The President has been very clear on on

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<v Speaker 1>bringing down inflation. He talked about it at the State

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<v Speaker 1>of the Union. But we're living in very interesting dynamic,

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<v Speaker 1>dynamic in times that are happening here. So again, there's

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<v Speaker 1>lots of conversations and lots of actions that will be

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<v Speaker 1>taken over the next weeks and months. You're in a

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<v Speaker 1>difficult spot now, and understand that because you need to

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<v Speaker 1>try and stand your lane and not get ahead of

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<v Speaker 1>what other people haven't said yet. But have you spoken

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<v Speaker 1>to the administration this morning and your message following the

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<v Speaker 1>overnight events which were shocking for so many people. I

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<v Speaker 1>haven't heard anyone yet called that an escalation from the

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<v Speaker 1>US administration. Secondly, Wolves, do you believe the events of

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<v Speaker 1>last night were an escalation? Well, I'm sure the President's

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<v Speaker 1>going to address that when he speaks later today. When

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<v Speaker 1>can we hear from him? I don't. I think he

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<v Speaker 1>generally has a not too far from now, a couple

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<v Speaker 1>of hours from now, I think he'll addressed he addresses

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<v Speaker 1>that the country on the issue of of of the jobs,

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<v Speaker 1>but certainly the biggest issue of of the day is Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 1>The biggest issue of our moment is Ukraine. Well, I

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<v Speaker 1>look forward to him from him a little bit later

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<v Speaker 1>and understand. Secondly, Wolves, there's only so much you can say, sir,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's only so much you can say this morning

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<v Speaker 1>as well. Thank you for paying with us, and I

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<v Speaker 1>think we're both on the same page. When we can

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<v Speaker 1>just talk about payrolls for ten minutes. I can't wait

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<v Speaker 1>for that moment, sir. Secondly, well, Stan, thank you our

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<v Speaker 1>conversation of the day on this term sanctions. Right now

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<v Speaker 1>in Ukraine, there is a teacher and a nurse and

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<v Speaker 1>they are leaving Ukraine and maybe they've got an eighteen

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<v Speaker 1>month old with them. It was not war in Nigeria,

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<v Speaker 1>but Wally Adyamo came to California as an eighteen month

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<v Speaker 1>old with his parents. He's done better than good out

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<v Speaker 1>of Yale law, terrific in the Democratic Party with different

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<v Speaker 1>public service positions in the Deputy Treasury Secretary Jones this morning.

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<v Speaker 1>What will happen on sanctions sir this weekend? What I

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<v Speaker 1>can say, um, good morning, thanks for having me, is

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<v Speaker 1>that if President Putin continues to escalate his war in Ukraine,

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<v Speaker 1>we will continue you to increase the sanctions that we've

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<v Speaker 1>put on Russia. It's important to see what's happening in

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<v Speaker 1>the Russian economy today because the sanctions we've put on,

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<v Speaker 1>inflation is likely North Russian markets have been shut down

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<v Speaker 1>for days, and just earlier they announced they're going to

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<v Speaker 1>shut them down for more days, which is the longest

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<v Speaker 1>shutdown they've had since at least when they defaulted on

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<v Speaker 1>their debt. And in addition to that, any investor or

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<v Speaker 1>market princison that I've talked to over the last week,

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<v Speaker 1>what they're trying to do is take their money out

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<v Speaker 1>of Russia, which means that the Russian economy is collapsing.

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<v Speaker 1>You've had experience with that with Mr Finkett Black Rock,

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<v Speaker 1>so you've served both spheres of government and finance. From

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<v Speaker 1>where you sit. Can the Biden administration at unilaterally or

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<v Speaker 1>we must we wait for our allies. The thing that

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<v Speaker 1>the President has discovered is that we are far more

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<v Speaker 1>powerful working with our allies. And that's exactly what we've

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<v Speaker 1>seen here, building alliance that doesn't only include our European partners,

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<v Speaker 1>but also partners and allies in Asia, which has cut

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<v Speaker 1>off Russia from access to the international financial system, the

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<v Speaker 1>global economy. Mr Secretary, your words just moments ago. If

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<v Speaker 1>Russia increases the war in Ukraine, we increase the sanctions

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<v Speaker 1>in Russia. Mrs Secretary, was last night an escalation? So

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<v Speaker 1>I'll leave that to the judgment as we look at

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<v Speaker 1>what happened last night. But our goal is to make

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<v Speaker 1>sure that we continue to increase sanctions as they increase

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<v Speaker 1>their escalation. We took sanctions actions yesterday, were prepared to

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<v Speaker 1>take additional actions to not only cut off the Russian

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<v Speaker 1>economy but cut off Russian elites who are helping support

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<v Speaker 1>President Putin, and we're going to continue to do that

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<v Speaker 1>as long as President Putin chooses us to continue his

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<v Speaker 1>work choice in Ukraine. You'll leave it for another department

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<v Speaker 1>to decide whether that was an escalation. Then you have

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<v Speaker 1>to enforce the sanctions that the White House decides. So

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<v Speaker 1>Mr Secretary, just help us understand how the sausage is made.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you do the groundwork ahead of sanctions being announced

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<v Speaker 1>or do you have to do the groundwork after they've

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<v Speaker 1>been announced. Can you help me understand what order it

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<v Speaker 1>comes through? Do you have to do a load of

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<v Speaker 1>studies now to be prepared to execute on something that

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<v Speaker 1>might be announced down on the road, or do you

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<v Speaker 1>wait for it to be announced. So in November, when

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<v Speaker 1>we started to see Russian troops gathering outside of Ukraine,

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<v Speaker 1>the President ordered Secretary yell And to start planning for

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<v Speaker 1>the imposition of sanctions if Russia were to invade. He

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<v Speaker 1>gave one order, which was to make sure that anything

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<v Speaker 1>we did had a maximum impact on Russia and mitigated

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<v Speaker 1>the impact on the United States and on our allies.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's exactly what we've done, working closely with Europe

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<v Speaker 1>and our allies in Asia, to make sure we design

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<v Speaker 1>sanctions that we could use if Russia invaded. And we

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<v Speaker 1>have a number of things that we've already deployed, the

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<v Speaker 1>number of things that we've planned for over the course

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<v Speaker 1>the last few months to worry to deploy if Russia

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<v Speaker 1>continued invasion of Let's talk about the stuff you planned

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<v Speaker 1>for and haven't deployed. Have you got a plan for

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<v Speaker 1>energy sanctions if you needed to deploy it? Has that

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<v Speaker 1>plan been made at Treasury? So going back to what

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<v Speaker 1>the President gave us as an order, make sure that

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<v Speaker 1>we maximized the pan on Russia and limit the cost

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<v Speaker 1>to the American people are our allies. What we decided

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<v Speaker 1>to do with regard to energy is make sure that

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<v Speaker 1>we do nothing to increase the price of energy um immediately.

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<v Speaker 1>So we're we've created a general licensing that energy can

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<v Speaker 1>be sold through pipelines by boat immediately. But what we're

0:11:05.880 --> 0:11:08.640
<v Speaker 1>doing is that over the long term, we're degrading Russia's

0:11:08.800 --> 0:11:12.120
<v Speaker 1>energy production capabilities so they can pump less energy from

0:11:12.120 --> 0:11:14.000
<v Speaker 1>the ground in order to cut off their source of

0:11:14.000 --> 0:11:16.880
<v Speaker 1>revenue overtime. So I understand what's being announced. I'm trying

0:11:16.880 --> 0:11:19.679
<v Speaker 1>to understand whether you have a plan to deploy if

0:11:19.679 --> 0:11:22.680
<v Speaker 1>you need to announce energy sanctions speak of Alosi says

0:11:22.720 --> 0:11:25.240
<v Speaker 1>band the oil band, Russian oil. I want to understand

0:11:25.240 --> 0:11:28.320
<v Speaker 1>whether you've done the work at Treasury to execute that plan,

0:11:28.360 --> 0:11:30.559
<v Speaker 1>if it needs to be executed. Does that plan exist

0:11:31.040 --> 0:11:33.880
<v Speaker 1>at Treasury? So the plan that we have now is

0:11:33.880 --> 0:11:35.559
<v Speaker 1>to do everything we can to make sure the market

0:11:35.600 --> 0:11:38.559
<v Speaker 1>remains well supplied. Now, what we have plans to do

0:11:38.600 --> 0:11:41.320
<v Speaker 1>is to grade their ability to produce energy into the future,

0:11:41.559 --> 0:11:44.040
<v Speaker 1>because the thing that we know is that if we

0:11:44.120 --> 0:11:47.320
<v Speaker 1>do something immediately that increases the cost of energy, that

0:11:47.360 --> 0:11:49.280
<v Speaker 1>will be a cost on the American people, and it

0:11:49.320 --> 0:11:51.360
<v Speaker 1>will be money that goes into the pocket of President

0:11:51.360 --> 0:11:54.400
<v Speaker 1>Putin if the cost of energy increases around the world.

0:11:54.559 --> 0:11:57.040
<v Speaker 1>So instead of increasing costs now, our goal is to

0:11:57.080 --> 0:11:59.559
<v Speaker 1>make sure that we degrade their ability to produce oil

0:11:59.600 --> 0:12:02.680
<v Speaker 1>overtime time, which will further starve them of the resources

0:12:02.880 --> 0:12:05.600
<v Speaker 1>they need to to conduct the kind of wars they

0:12:05.600 --> 0:12:09.040
<v Speaker 1>are doing today in Ukraine. Mr Secretary, Does that mean

0:12:09.120 --> 0:12:11.320
<v Speaker 1>that the sanctions that we've put out there so far

0:12:11.920 --> 0:12:13.880
<v Speaker 1>are all of the sanctions that we can put out

0:12:13.920 --> 0:12:16.480
<v Speaker 1>there at this time, because what you're talking about will

0:12:16.480 --> 0:12:19.760
<v Speaker 1>take time, So even if there's an escalation, there cannot

0:12:19.760 --> 0:12:23.200
<v Speaker 1>be the sanctions on oil without the having a conflict

0:12:23.240 --> 0:12:26.640
<v Speaker 1>with this goal. No, that's not true. We have other

0:12:26.679 --> 0:12:30.960
<v Speaker 1>sanctions options outside of the immediate sanctions on the energy industry.

0:12:31.160 --> 0:12:33.360
<v Speaker 1>What we have sanctions on the financial industry that we

0:12:33.400 --> 0:12:37.080
<v Speaker 1>can continue to deploy, Sanctions on their defense industry we

0:12:37.080 --> 0:12:39.199
<v Speaker 1>can continue to deploy. We have a number of options

0:12:39.240 --> 0:12:41.200
<v Speaker 1>that we can do that will allow us to meet

0:12:41.240 --> 0:12:44.320
<v Speaker 1>the President's objective, which is maximizing the cost on Russia

0:12:44.440 --> 0:12:47.160
<v Speaker 1>and reducing the costs in the United States and on Europe.

0:12:47.240 --> 0:12:50.240
<v Speaker 1>Our goals and make sure the energy market remains well supplied,

0:12:50.320 --> 0:12:53.000
<v Speaker 1>because that's important to the American people. But by making

0:12:53.040 --> 0:12:56.079
<v Speaker 1>sure that energy prices stay low, it stars President Putin

0:12:56.120 --> 0:12:58.360
<v Speaker 1>of the resources he needs to continue to fight the

0:12:58.360 --> 0:13:00.920
<v Speaker 1>war in Ukraine and also to just ableize the region.

0:13:01.280 --> 0:13:04.160
<v Speaker 1>Mr Secretary, how important is it to then get more

0:13:04.240 --> 0:13:08.559
<v Speaker 1>production domestically, to encourage the domestic oil and shell producers

0:13:08.760 --> 0:13:11.839
<v Speaker 1>to actually increase output, to create a buffer, to give

0:13:11.880 --> 0:13:14.680
<v Speaker 1>you more tools. What I can say is that the

0:13:14.720 --> 0:13:16.800
<v Speaker 1>most important thing we canna do is make sure that

0:13:16.880 --> 0:13:19.640
<v Speaker 1>the market today is well supplied, and we're doing that

0:13:19.840 --> 0:13:21.680
<v Speaker 1>in the United States, but we're also doing that with

0:13:21.679 --> 0:13:24.240
<v Speaker 1>our allies and partners to sexually give me Let's go

0:13:24.280 --> 0:13:27.200
<v Speaker 1>back to the question, are you reaching down to domestic

0:13:27.240 --> 0:13:30.320
<v Speaker 1>supplies of crude in America? Have you spoken to them?

0:13:30.520 --> 0:13:33.400
<v Speaker 1>Deaf and Energy said to us this week. The CEO

0:13:33.559 --> 0:13:36.720
<v Speaker 1>was mystified that you haven't reached out to boost production

0:13:36.760 --> 0:13:38.839
<v Speaker 1>at home. Have you done that? Have you spoken to

0:13:38.920 --> 0:13:43.120
<v Speaker 1>domestic supplies? So as you know, well, um, the domestic

0:13:43.120 --> 0:13:45.720
<v Speaker 1>supplier crude right now is at a peak and that

0:13:45.800 --> 0:13:47.880
<v Speaker 1>it will take time for more supply to come online.

0:13:48.080 --> 0:13:50.160
<v Speaker 1>We're focused on making sure that the energy markets are

0:13:50.200 --> 0:13:52.640
<v Speaker 1>well supplied today because we want to make sure costs

0:13:52.720 --> 0:13:55.720
<v Speaker 1>or reduce for American people today, and we're depriving President

0:13:55.760 --> 0:13:58.040
<v Speaker 1>Putin of the resources he needs to fight the war today.

0:13:58.320 --> 0:14:00.160
<v Speaker 1>Over time, we need to do more to make or

0:14:00.280 --> 0:14:02.480
<v Speaker 1>that the energy market is well supplied, and we're also

0:14:02.520 --> 0:14:04.360
<v Speaker 1>focused on that as well. You said we're to peak

0:14:04.400 --> 0:14:06.800
<v Speaker 1>with eleven points six million pounds of all the day

0:14:06.960 --> 0:14:10.000
<v Speaker 1>back to the north of thirteen. Just looking at that

0:14:10.360 --> 0:14:12.560
<v Speaker 1>off the Blomberg terminal, What what do you mean we're

0:14:12.559 --> 0:14:16.480
<v Speaker 1>to peak? My point is that at the moment we

0:14:16.559 --> 0:14:19.120
<v Speaker 1>are producing a great deal of energy in this country.

0:14:19.320 --> 0:14:22.040
<v Speaker 1>It will take time for additional energy to come online,

0:14:22.280 --> 0:14:24.160
<v Speaker 1>but we want to make sure is that as it takes,

0:14:24.200 --> 0:14:27.360
<v Speaker 1>as that energy comes online, we're well supplied today because

0:14:27.400 --> 0:14:29.040
<v Speaker 1>we want to make sure that Americans who are going

0:14:29.080 --> 0:14:31.880
<v Speaker 1>to the pump today are paying the lowest possible cost.

0:14:32.240 --> 0:14:34.480
<v Speaker 1>That's going to require not just us to take action

0:14:34.520 --> 0:14:36.920
<v Speaker 1>here in the United States, but other producers also to

0:14:36.920 --> 0:14:38.920
<v Speaker 1>make sure that the energy markets well supplied. You're a

0:14:38.920 --> 0:14:42.880
<v Speaker 1>great student of history on this, Mr Secretary, And is

0:14:42.920 --> 0:14:46.880
<v Speaker 1>this a see change for the politics and the energy

0:14:46.960 --> 0:14:50.920
<v Speaker 1>politics of the Democratic Party, Does Joe Biden have to

0:14:51.040 --> 0:14:55.720
<v Speaker 1>leave the Democrats to a new energy theory, a new

0:14:55.880 --> 0:14:59.560
<v Speaker 1>energy philosophy. I don't think it is. I think that

0:14:59.640 --> 0:15:01.800
<v Speaker 1>ultimately only we've always been for a well suppli at

0:15:01.880 --> 0:15:04.640
<v Speaker 1>energy market. We know that in the immediate term that's

0:15:04.640 --> 0:15:07.880
<v Speaker 1>going to require us to rely on fossil fuels. But

0:15:07.960 --> 0:15:10.680
<v Speaker 1>what we should learn from this is that ultimately being

0:15:10.720 --> 0:15:14.400
<v Speaker 1>reliant on fossil fuels, fuels that often come from places

0:15:14.480 --> 0:15:17.200
<v Speaker 1>like Russia, is not in anyone's interests. That's why the

0:15:17.240 --> 0:15:19.200
<v Speaker 1>President is focused on making sure that we move to

0:15:19.280 --> 0:15:21.960
<v Speaker 1>a clean energy future that's not only good for our security,

0:15:22.080 --> 0:15:25.000
<v Speaker 1>but it's good for our planet over time. Mr Secretary,

0:15:25.520 --> 0:15:28.880
<v Speaker 1>I'm a little bit confused, as many people are right now.

0:15:29.360 --> 0:15:32.960
<v Speaker 1>Crudes at one eleven on the Bloomberg right now, once

0:15:32.960 --> 0:15:37.680
<v Speaker 1>in ninety we've got domestic oil suppliers, private companies essentially

0:15:37.680 --> 0:15:39.200
<v Speaker 1>saying we just want to hear from the White House.

0:15:39.280 --> 0:15:40.960
<v Speaker 1>We're surprised we haven't heard from the White House. They

0:15:40.960 --> 0:15:43.280
<v Speaker 1>haven't heard from you, They haven't heard from the White House.

0:15:43.520 --> 0:15:45.320
<v Speaker 1>It doesn't make sense, and you keep repeating the same

0:15:45.320 --> 0:15:47.560
<v Speaker 1>thing over and over again. We need to make sure

0:15:47.600 --> 0:15:50.520
<v Speaker 1>there's enough crude supply. You won't. We can't reach out

0:15:50.520 --> 0:15:53.760
<v Speaker 1>to domestic suppliers. We need to tighten the grip on Russia.

0:15:54.400 --> 0:15:55.960
<v Speaker 1>The fact of the matter is people are stepping back

0:15:55.960 --> 0:15:57.640
<v Speaker 1>from Russian crewed anyway. And as you know, and I'm

0:15:57.640 --> 0:15:59.480
<v Speaker 1>just gonna repeat this for our audience, not for you, sir,

0:16:00.360 --> 0:16:03.600
<v Speaker 1>three percent of crude imports last year for the United

0:16:03.640 --> 0:16:06.440
<v Speaker 1>States came from Russia, just three So people are already

0:16:06.440 --> 0:16:09.600
<v Speaker 1>stepping back from Russian crude. What is it you think

0:16:09.640 --> 0:16:12.760
<v Speaker 1>will happen if the United States comes out and announces

0:16:12.800 --> 0:16:15.640
<v Speaker 1>that they're no longer importing Russian crude? What is it

0:16:15.640 --> 0:16:17.560
<v Speaker 1>that you think will happen? And if you don't want

0:16:17.600 --> 0:16:19.640
<v Speaker 1>to do that, are you essentially suggesting that you want

0:16:19.680 --> 0:16:23.520
<v Speaker 1>domestic refiners to be buying Russian crude? Is that the

0:16:23.560 --> 0:16:27.280
<v Speaker 1>goal of these sanctions still? But you want domestic refiners

0:16:27.280 --> 0:16:30.040
<v Speaker 1>to be buying Russian crude? Still? Is that the message

0:16:30.040 --> 0:16:33.920
<v Speaker 1>you want to send to the American public today? So

0:16:33.960 --> 0:16:36.400
<v Speaker 1>I know that you've repeated twice now that we haven't

0:16:36.400 --> 0:16:38.600
<v Speaker 1>reached out to domestic producers. But as you know well,

0:16:39.120 --> 0:16:42.400
<v Speaker 1>domestic producers are making decisions based on what they see

0:16:42.440 --> 0:16:44.840
<v Speaker 1>in the market um their ability to make money in

0:16:44.880 --> 0:16:46.560
<v Speaker 1>the market, and our goal is to make sure that

0:16:46.560 --> 0:16:48.680
<v Speaker 1>we have a well supplied market. The President has been

0:16:48.760 --> 0:16:50.720
<v Speaker 1>very clear about what our goal is is to make

0:16:50.760 --> 0:16:53.520
<v Speaker 1>sure that with regard to sanctions, that we have a

0:16:53.560 --> 0:16:56.840
<v Speaker 1>maximum impact on Russia and we minimize them impact on

0:16:57.000 --> 0:17:00.000
<v Speaker 1>the United States and our allies. That's why he's taken

0:17:00.040 --> 0:17:03.400
<v Speaker 1>steps like reduced like working with our allies and partners

0:17:03.560 --> 0:17:06.399
<v Speaker 1>to reduce the energy supplies that we have in store,

0:17:06.600 --> 0:17:08.080
<v Speaker 1>and we're going to continue to take steps to try

0:17:08.080 --> 0:17:10.560
<v Speaker 1>and reduce costs for the American people. It's a Secretary,

0:17:10.960 --> 0:17:13.560
<v Speaker 1>thanks for a time today, said well, the U S

0:17:13.600 --> 0:17:22.720
<v Speaker 1>Deputy try to read Secretary. Jeff Rosenberg of black Rock

0:17:22.840 --> 0:17:25.399
<v Speaker 1>joins us right now. Jeff, have you ever seen a

0:17:25.480 --> 0:17:29.480
<v Speaker 1>number as big as six thousand met with a collective

0:17:29.480 --> 0:17:34.080
<v Speaker 1>shrug in the market. Well, it's it's a reminder, Jonathan

0:17:34.119 --> 0:17:37.640
<v Speaker 1>that that the market's focus is really not on on payrolls.

0:17:37.640 --> 0:17:40.040
<v Speaker 1>But if we do just look at some of the

0:17:40.119 --> 0:17:43.720
<v Speaker 1>implications of the payroll report, you know, clearly a very

0:17:43.760 --> 0:17:47.639
<v Speaker 1>strong report across the board. Mike McKee, if you're if

0:17:47.640 --> 0:17:49.639
<v Speaker 1>you're looking, i mean check out the work week that

0:17:49.760 --> 0:17:53.040
<v Speaker 1>may have been behind that kind of disappointing month over

0:17:53.160 --> 0:17:56.080
<v Speaker 1>month A G. I can't quite see it here, but

0:17:56.200 --> 0:18:00.679
<v Speaker 1>this is really a difficult period for markets because you know,

0:18:00.720 --> 0:18:02.760
<v Speaker 1>as we heard earlier this week, you know, the Fed

0:18:02.920 --> 0:18:07.080
<v Speaker 1>is is focused on inflation and its need to get

0:18:07.119 --> 0:18:11.399
<v Speaker 1>on with normalization and raise rates, while the market is

0:18:11.440 --> 0:18:15.920
<v Speaker 1>focused on the implications of of of the Russian invasion,

0:18:15.960 --> 0:18:21.199
<v Speaker 1>and that implication is a negative supply shock um you know,

0:18:21.320 --> 0:18:26.360
<v Speaker 1>negative to growth, positive to inflation. It puts the Fed

0:18:26.359 --> 0:18:28.760
<v Speaker 1>in a difficult position. More importantly, it puts us as

0:18:28.840 --> 0:18:33.000
<v Speaker 1>investors in a difficult position that we can't really look to. Uh,

0:18:33.040 --> 0:18:36.720
<v Speaker 1>you know, interest rates falling um from from from Fed

0:18:36.800 --> 0:18:39.160
<v Speaker 1>policy easing in the face of any kind of growth

0:18:39.240 --> 0:18:41.800
<v Speaker 1>slow down because of the inflationary aspect. So it's a

0:18:41.800 --> 0:18:44.919
<v Speaker 1>it's a very tricky environment. Obviously, market reaction is about

0:18:45.000 --> 0:18:47.560
<v Speaker 1>Russia Ukraine, not really about the pay we say good

0:18:47.560 --> 0:18:49.879
<v Speaker 1>morning to Larry Finco. I know is watching and hanging

0:18:49.880 --> 0:18:52.040
<v Speaker 1>on every word, Mr Rosenberg. I don't want you to

0:18:52.080 --> 0:18:55.119
<v Speaker 1>give away the palace secrets, but does black crack and

0:18:55.280 --> 0:18:58.439
<v Speaker 1>have any sense in full faith and credit and in

0:18:58.480 --> 0:19:00.960
<v Speaker 1>the credit markets of all on all this war that

0:19:01.040 --> 0:19:05.679
<v Speaker 1>you can mark to market. This Friday, Well, you know,

0:19:05.720 --> 0:19:08.320
<v Speaker 1>what we're seeing in the credit markets, and this is

0:19:08.359 --> 0:19:11.879
<v Speaker 1>this is kind of even you know, preceding some of uh,

0:19:12.160 --> 0:19:16.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, the acceleration around the geopolitical uncertainties is you know,

0:19:16.359 --> 0:19:19.240
<v Speaker 1>we're well off the tight levels and the tightest levels

0:19:19.240 --> 0:19:21.399
<v Speaker 1>of spreads. You know, partly a lot of that was

0:19:21.400 --> 0:19:24.080
<v Speaker 1>was just repricing to a higher interest rate environment. I

0:19:24.119 --> 0:19:28.240
<v Speaker 1>think now, you know, you have a difficult time disentangling

0:19:28.240 --> 0:19:32.840
<v Speaker 1>the price signals because there's a liquidity uh premium risk

0:19:32.920 --> 0:19:36.400
<v Speaker 1>premium being built into the market. Uh. And I think

0:19:36.440 --> 0:19:38.800
<v Speaker 1>most of the price response so far as that, but

0:19:38.880 --> 0:19:44.600
<v Speaker 1>we have to recognize that the negative supply shock and

0:19:44.840 --> 0:19:49.480
<v Speaker 1>the stagflationary impact of that is really a tricky environment

0:19:49.560 --> 0:19:53.359
<v Speaker 1>for for credit. But the growth side is ultimately a

0:19:53.440 --> 0:19:55.480
<v Speaker 1>bit more on the negative side. And you've seen some

0:19:55.600 --> 0:19:59.720
<v Speaker 1>wider spreads across UH credit markets, and I think that's

0:19:59.720 --> 0:20:02.640
<v Speaker 1>a a message that makes sense in terms of pricing

0:20:02.680 --> 0:20:07.320
<v Speaker 1>in you know, some higher probabilities around some more negative

0:20:07.320 --> 0:20:09.800
<v Speaker 1>scenarios for for how this all plays out, and so

0:20:09.840 --> 0:20:12.480
<v Speaker 1>that higher risk premium you know, not yet really talking

0:20:12.520 --> 0:20:16.480
<v Speaker 1>about default risk premium, but risk premium around the potential

0:20:16.600 --> 0:20:20.240
<v Speaker 1>to to change some of the probabilities around um economic

0:20:20.280 --> 0:20:22.840
<v Speaker 1>outcomes around this this event. A lot of people who

0:20:22.840 --> 0:20:25.080
<v Speaker 1>we spoke to this week so that they did rethink

0:20:25.160 --> 0:20:28.679
<v Speaker 1>or they are rethinking actively their allocations in response to

0:20:28.680 --> 0:20:32.600
<v Speaker 1>the developments between Ukraine with the Russian invasion. Have you

0:20:32.680 --> 0:20:36.360
<v Speaker 1>done the same? Yeah? You know, you know there there

0:20:36.480 --> 0:20:41.240
<v Speaker 1>is certainly kind of the initial playbook of you know,

0:20:41.320 --> 0:20:46.440
<v Speaker 1>geopolitical risk is very hard for markets to sustainably reflect

0:20:46.520 --> 0:20:50.240
<v Speaker 1>in prices. I think that initial kind of hopeful response

0:20:50.320 --> 0:20:53.280
<v Speaker 1>in terms of this could be a buying opportunity has

0:20:53.440 --> 0:20:58.840
<v Speaker 1>really been replaced, particularly after the weekend sanctions, with a

0:20:58.960 --> 0:21:01.840
<v Speaker 1>much harder reacitity that this could be going on for

0:21:01.920 --> 0:21:06.160
<v Speaker 1>a much longer period with a much more persistent impact

0:21:06.280 --> 0:21:10.040
<v Speaker 1>to energy prices and broader commodity prices. And that's the

0:21:10.080 --> 0:21:13.800
<v Speaker 1>negative supply shock that you're seeing now roll out in

0:21:13.920 --> 0:21:17.640
<v Speaker 1>terms of forecast revisions. Forecast revisions so far are modest,

0:21:17.680 --> 0:21:21.560
<v Speaker 1>but they're significant in terms of reduction and growth increase

0:21:21.600 --> 0:21:25.280
<v Speaker 1>in inflation, a longer period of inflation. And then again

0:21:25.359 --> 0:21:28.320
<v Speaker 1>to the challenge that puts to global central banks in

0:21:28.400 --> 0:21:30.680
<v Speaker 1>terms of how do they manage the cross currents between

0:21:30.720 --> 0:21:33.399
<v Speaker 1>growth and inflation a lot more focused in the U

0:21:33.560 --> 0:21:35.600
<v Speaker 1>S here on inflation. I think for the e c

0:21:35.760 --> 0:21:39.320
<v Speaker 1>B we're gonna see perhaps a different response given the

0:21:40.240 --> 0:21:42.919
<v Speaker 1>central impact this has in a much larger impact on

0:21:43.000 --> 0:21:45.920
<v Speaker 1>the European growth outlook. So we're really upending a lot

0:21:45.960 --> 0:21:49.640
<v Speaker 1>of assumptions. But I think clearly here the shock to commodities,

0:21:49.720 --> 0:21:53.879
<v Speaker 1>the negative supply shock, prolonging the inflationary environment is is

0:21:53.880 --> 0:21:56.080
<v Speaker 1>going to make this a little bit more durable in

0:21:56.200 --> 0:21:59.680
<v Speaker 1>terms of market impact and economic impact as a geopolitical shock.

0:22:00.000 --> 0:22:03.320
<v Speaker 1>Me you watch this move in your DNA just about

0:22:03.320 --> 0:22:06.520
<v Speaker 1>holding onto one oh nine. What a breakdown. I can't

0:22:06.560 --> 0:22:09.240
<v Speaker 1>convey enough. And of course this is something Mr Rosenberg

0:22:09.320 --> 0:22:12.239
<v Speaker 1>is so good at as the cross correlations. If this

0:22:12.320 --> 0:22:16.000
<v Speaker 1>is not John flight nous, it's sort of a rolling

0:22:16.560 --> 0:22:21.840
<v Speaker 1>wave tape to tape of stress euroswissy, not showing me

0:22:21.960 --> 0:22:27.719
<v Speaker 1>euro your euro US dollar, but nevertheless extraordinary ruble at

0:22:27.760 --> 0:22:30.280
<v Speaker 1>one sevent five days of waitness for this euro. Just

0:22:30.280 --> 0:22:32.160
<v Speaker 1>it goes through the banks in Europe, any credits still

0:22:32.160 --> 0:22:34.680
<v Speaker 1>down by more than ten percent, Commas Bank down by eight,

0:22:34.760 --> 0:22:37.159
<v Speaker 1>suck gent Damn by seven, Deutsche Bank Dawn by a

0:22:37.160 --> 0:22:40.040
<v Speaker 1>little more than seven, Jeff, can you frame just how

0:22:40.119 --> 0:22:42.919
<v Speaker 1>much of a problem we're facing in European markets and

0:22:42.960 --> 0:22:48.440
<v Speaker 1>whether you'd go near it? Well, and the problem is

0:22:48.480 --> 0:22:51.920
<v Speaker 1>certainly centered there. You have you know, significant commodity shocked,

0:22:51.960 --> 0:22:56.200
<v Speaker 1>significant growth shock UH and and and and the dependency

0:22:56.280 --> 0:22:59.640
<v Speaker 1>that we know in terms of the Russian energy supplies

0:22:59.760 --> 0:23:03.240
<v Speaker 1>is is centered obviously much more in Europe than in

0:23:03.280 --> 0:23:05.320
<v Speaker 1>the rest of the world. So you know this is

0:23:05.840 --> 0:23:08.240
<v Speaker 1>you know, not only the growth impact, but the stock

0:23:08.280 --> 0:23:10.920
<v Speaker 1>impact that you just described in terms of the financial

0:23:10.960 --> 0:23:15.960
<v Speaker 1>linkage is for the banking sector, um all being reflected

0:23:16.040 --> 0:23:20.040
<v Speaker 1>in this repricing here of Russian sovereign and and and

0:23:20.119 --> 0:23:23.760
<v Speaker 1>credit risk premium. So UH, your second part of the question,

0:23:23.880 --> 0:23:26.600
<v Speaker 1>I think it's a very difficult environment to assess the

0:23:27.160 --> 0:23:31.520
<v Speaker 1>primary and secondary UH spillover effects, and so a more

0:23:31.600 --> 0:23:35.560
<v Speaker 1>cautious stance is one that we're taking when we look

0:23:35.600 --> 0:23:39.120
<v Speaker 1>at some of the impacts UH in our portfolios. Jeff,

0:23:39.119 --> 0:23:40.800
<v Speaker 1>looking forward to catching up with Rick a little bit later.

0:23:40.840 --> 0:23:42.879
<v Speaker 1>I'll be catching up with Rick reader in the next

0:23:42.920 --> 0:23:45.040
<v Speaker 1>hour on a stage. Mr o So David Kelly, a

0:23:45.119 --> 0:23:49.400
<v Speaker 1>JPMUK and Asset Management. We're here from the White House. Well,

0:23:49.440 --> 0:23:51.919
<v Speaker 1>you speak to Jeff, you speak to Jeff, catch up

0:23:51.960 --> 0:23:54.400
<v Speaker 1>with do you want to swap them? Do you want Jeff?

0:23:54.440 --> 0:23:55.680
<v Speaker 1>Would you like to come to me in the next

0:23:55.680 --> 0:23:59.760
<v Speaker 1>hour and Rick can come. Okay, we can work it out.

0:23:59.800 --> 0:24:03.040
<v Speaker 1>We and he's very sensitive this morning, Jeff, I apologize

0:24:03.080 --> 0:24:05.520
<v Speaker 1>for that and something. There's a difference between being long

0:24:05.600 --> 0:24:07.600
<v Speaker 1>into the weekend, being short into the weekend, and just

0:24:07.640 --> 0:24:09.800
<v Speaker 1>hands off into the weekend. I think a lot of

0:24:09.800 --> 0:24:13.080
<v Speaker 1>people are very, very worried about just being wrong and

0:24:13.160 --> 0:24:16.480
<v Speaker 1>this market just going completely in the other direction. I mean,

0:24:16.480 --> 0:24:19.440
<v Speaker 1>on an ancient U S statistic, the vix is mid midway,

0:24:19.520 --> 0:24:22.000
<v Speaker 1>it's thirty up to thirty five, and we're thirty three

0:24:22.000 --> 0:24:25.000
<v Speaker 1>point three three. So that's a journey. You're leaving us right,

0:24:25.080 --> 0:24:26.879
<v Speaker 1>I'm going I was gonna wait for your dollar to

0:24:26.880 --> 0:24:29.000
<v Speaker 1>bring you in one a weight hand or tumper. I'll

0:24:29.000 --> 0:24:33.520
<v Speaker 1>give it a one oh nine or four serious clubs.

0:24:33.680 --> 0:24:37.160
<v Speaker 1>We're making jokes, are John? Seriously? This is not a joke.

0:24:37.800 --> 0:24:41.399
<v Speaker 1>Something on Thursday, just the final word between you and

0:24:41.440 --> 0:24:45.240
<v Speaker 1>I t K on Thursday, c p I and then

0:24:45.320 --> 0:24:48.000
<v Speaker 1>literally a CPI comes out present the guard is going

0:24:48.080 --> 0:24:51.560
<v Speaker 1>to walk into the room. In Frankfurt, Germany, and deliver

0:24:51.600 --> 0:24:55.640
<v Speaker 1>a news conference I one on nine oh three. Were

0:24:55.680 --> 0:24:58.359
<v Speaker 1>there any moment. Jeffrey Rosenberg, thank you so much for

0:24:58.440 --> 0:25:01.520
<v Speaker 1>joining us. As always, black Rock, John Farrell, thank you

0:25:01.600 --> 0:25:10.840
<v Speaker 1>so much for joining us. We get an important perspective

0:25:10.840 --> 0:25:13.359
<v Speaker 1>from Tiffany Wild and Tiffany, thank you so much for

0:25:13.440 --> 0:25:15.919
<v Speaker 1>waiting through the half hour. Really really all of us

0:25:15.960 --> 0:25:21.560
<v Speaker 1>appreciate that. Tiffany, how separate is the United States right

0:25:21.560 --> 0:25:25.639
<v Speaker 1>now with a boom economy? Yeah, well, first of all,

0:25:25.680 --> 0:25:27.600
<v Speaker 1>good morning coming Paul. I mean, I think I think

0:25:27.600 --> 0:25:30.000
<v Speaker 1>what the SERAL report told you was that the US

0:25:30.040 --> 0:25:32.960
<v Speaker 1>economy is coming into the new year with a lot

0:25:33.000 --> 0:25:36.040
<v Speaker 1>of momentum. Um, you know. And you know, so we

0:25:36.040 --> 0:25:38.680
<v Speaker 1>we got a booming jobs market, but not only that,

0:25:38.800 --> 0:25:43.040
<v Speaker 1>we're seeing labor supply improve. Um. You know, the participation

0:25:43.119 --> 0:25:45.040
<v Speaker 1>rate is improving, people are starting to come back, and

0:25:45.560 --> 0:25:49.679
<v Speaker 1>importantly that is starting to cool off wages, um, you

0:25:49.680 --> 0:25:51.520
<v Speaker 1>know a little bit. Of course, wages are still running

0:25:51.520 --> 0:25:53.520
<v Speaker 1>at you know, five point one percent according to this

0:25:53.560 --> 0:25:56.480
<v Speaker 1>morning's data, um, you know, but that was against expectations

0:25:56.480 --> 0:25:58.920
<v Speaker 1>of almost six percent, so you know, that's a big difference.

0:25:58.920 --> 0:26:02.080
<v Speaker 1>So that's going to be important for the FED. UM

0:26:02.119 --> 0:26:06.040
<v Speaker 1>and It's also going to be important because you do have, um,

0:26:06.080 --> 0:26:09.359
<v Speaker 1>you know, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, you know,

0:26:09.640 --> 0:26:12.479
<v Speaker 1>is going to have economic implications you know, for not

0:26:12.560 --> 0:26:15.280
<v Speaker 1>only you know, Russia and Ukraine, but for Europe, and

0:26:15.320 --> 0:26:17.760
<v Speaker 1>that will spill over to some extent to the United States.

0:26:17.920 --> 0:26:20.080
<v Speaker 1>So it's just it's really good news that we're coming

0:26:20.160 --> 0:26:23.280
<v Speaker 1>into that conflict, you know, with a very strong position

0:26:23.280 --> 0:26:26.840
<v Speaker 1>in the US economy. So, Tiffany, the headline unemployment rate

0:26:26.880 --> 0:26:31.760
<v Speaker 1>is three point eight percent. Is that full employment? Um?

0:26:31.840 --> 0:26:33.880
<v Speaker 1>You know, so I think I think we're getting there

0:26:33.960 --> 0:26:35.560
<v Speaker 1>for sure. Um you know. So I think we were

0:26:35.560 --> 0:26:37.600
<v Speaker 1>at three five right before the pandemic, and so I

0:26:37.600 --> 0:26:40.160
<v Speaker 1>think that's an easy number that people look at. Um

0:26:40.200 --> 0:26:43.080
<v Speaker 1>you know. So, so we're certainly close, um you know,

0:26:43.160 --> 0:26:46.080
<v Speaker 1>if we're not there already. So the bottom line is

0:26:46.160 --> 0:26:48.840
<v Speaker 1>is certainly from the monetary policy perspective, you know, subtle

0:26:48.880 --> 0:26:52.199
<v Speaker 1>reserve should be hiking interest rates. Um you know. But

0:26:52.240 --> 0:26:55.120
<v Speaker 1>I think the question of you know, hiking interest rates

0:26:55.160 --> 0:26:58.040
<v Speaker 1>and still you know, case of you know, maybe a

0:26:58.119 --> 0:27:01.240
<v Speaker 1>quarter per meeting first is doing something like a fifty

0:27:01.240 --> 0:27:03.159
<v Speaker 1>basis point rate hike, which many in the market have

0:27:03.240 --> 0:27:06.480
<v Speaker 1>talked about you know, I think this payroll report definitely

0:27:06.520 --> 0:27:09.159
<v Speaker 1>suggests that, you know, something more extreme like that fifty

0:27:09.160 --> 0:27:11.920
<v Speaker 1>basis point rate hike is probably not needed at Pimco

0:27:11.960 --> 0:27:14.640
<v Speaker 1>and Newport Beach. I mean, it's nothing to go up

0:27:14.640 --> 0:27:18.359
<v Speaker 1>and brunch in Hollywood about. You know, you just do it.

0:27:18.400 --> 0:27:21.240
<v Speaker 1>I mean, Tiffany does it right, and she's probably gonna

0:27:21.280 --> 0:27:24.520
<v Speaker 1>get in the car. It's gonna hit Mammoth Lakes this weekend,

0:27:24.880 --> 0:27:27.479
<v Speaker 1>you know, little That's how they do it. That's how

0:27:27.640 --> 0:27:30.639
<v Speaker 1>that's how Tiffany rolls. And I noticed a gallon of

0:27:30.680 --> 0:27:35.400
<v Speaker 1>gas Tiffany and Mammoth Lakes, a regular gallon clocking in

0:27:35.680 --> 0:27:41.119
<v Speaker 1>at five dollars. I mean, it's a political football, but

0:27:41.200 --> 0:27:44.480
<v Speaker 1>it's also a reality for a huge part of America.

0:27:45.040 --> 0:27:49.000
<v Speaker 1>When does the price of gas really impinge on your

0:27:49.040 --> 0:27:53.919
<v Speaker 1>Excel spreadsheet? Yeah, I mean so it already is, to

0:27:54.000 --> 0:27:56.160
<v Speaker 1>be quite frank with you, So, you know, I think

0:27:56.240 --> 0:27:58.639
<v Speaker 1>the issue here is is that, you know, obviously it

0:27:59.000 --> 0:28:01.800
<v Speaker 1>when people have to pay war for gasoline, something that

0:28:01.840 --> 0:28:04.720
<v Speaker 1>they need they can't really substitute into other products. It

0:28:04.840 --> 0:28:07.439
<v Speaker 1>just means that they have less you know, real discretionary

0:28:07.480 --> 0:28:10.159
<v Speaker 1>spending for other things. So it is it is bad

0:28:10.240 --> 0:28:13.960
<v Speaker 1>for for broader growth. UM. In the past, Um, the

0:28:14.040 --> 0:28:18.080
<v Speaker 1>United States shale revolution has offset that somewhat, you know,

0:28:18.160 --> 0:28:21.240
<v Speaker 1>but recently, um, you know, and and Jonathan Farrell's comments

0:28:21.359 --> 0:28:23.439
<v Speaker 1>UM to Marty Walsh kind of got to this. But

0:28:23.560 --> 0:28:28.280
<v Speaker 1>recently because of you know, environmental and other concerns, that

0:28:28.400 --> 0:28:31.439
<v Speaker 1>production response in the United States in the oil patch

0:28:31.560 --> 0:28:35.600
<v Speaker 1>has been much more sluggish. So it hasn't offset you know,

0:28:35.640 --> 0:28:38.280
<v Speaker 1>offset as much. And so you know, ultimately it will

0:28:38.360 --> 0:28:41.280
<v Speaker 1>be bad for for United States growth to have um,

0:28:41.320 --> 0:28:45.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, energy prices this high. Hopefully this will be

0:28:45.520 --> 0:28:48.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, a temporary shock, um, you know, and things

0:28:48.040 --> 0:28:50.640
<v Speaker 1>will will normalize at least eventually. UM. But I think

0:28:50.680 --> 0:28:52.680
<v Speaker 1>that also, you know, that also puts the FED in

0:28:52.720 --> 0:28:55.320
<v Speaker 1>a little bit trickier of a position, UM, because this,

0:28:55.440 --> 0:29:00.280
<v Speaker 1>the Russia Ukraine situation is a supply side shock, which

0:29:00.320 --> 0:29:04.320
<v Speaker 1>means higher inflation but yet lower growth. UM. And that's

0:29:04.320 --> 0:29:06.640
<v Speaker 1>a tricky position for the FED again. UM. You know.

0:29:06.720 --> 0:29:09.800
<v Speaker 1>Ultimately we think they stay on course because the US

0:29:09.880 --> 0:29:12.720
<v Speaker 1>is in such a strong position coming into this, um

0:29:12.720 --> 0:29:15.320
<v Speaker 1>that they can still hike interest rates. Um. You know,

0:29:15.360 --> 0:29:17.440
<v Speaker 1>but at some point, you know, they have to be mindful,

0:29:17.520 --> 0:29:20.000
<v Speaker 1>you get a further escalation. UM, you get actual trade

0:29:20.040 --> 0:29:23.280
<v Speaker 1>flow disruptions that are more material coming from Europe. UM.

0:29:23.320 --> 0:29:26.080
<v Speaker 1>You know, that's going to drag on US growth much

0:29:26.120 --> 0:29:28.400
<v Speaker 1>more strongly. UM. And then that's going to kind of

0:29:28.480 --> 0:29:31.200
<v Speaker 1>raise questions around if they need to pause or things

0:29:31.280 --> 0:29:33.440
<v Speaker 1>like that. But for right now, we think Punto Reserve

0:29:33.480 --> 0:29:36.240
<v Speaker 1>officials probably will continue on the path to monetary policy

0:29:36.720 --> 0:29:38.960
<v Speaker 1>UM normalization that they've kind of laid out of the

0:29:39.040 --> 0:29:41.000
<v Speaker 1>last several months. All right, so let's just go right there.

0:29:41.320 --> 0:29:44.600
<v Speaker 1>W I r P go on the Bloomberg terminal shows

0:29:44.640 --> 0:29:47.760
<v Speaker 1>me the markets kind of discounting maybe six rate hikes

0:29:47.760 --> 0:29:51.480
<v Speaker 1>incounter your two. Is that seemed reasonable to you? Yeah,

0:29:51.520 --> 0:29:53.520
<v Speaker 1>I mean we we think it does. You know, obviously,

0:29:53.720 --> 0:29:56.080
<v Speaker 1>you know there will be some uncertainty. Um. You know,

0:29:56.120 --> 0:29:59.560
<v Speaker 1>as we've been saying, you know, stuff happens, and I

0:29:59.600 --> 0:30:02.040
<v Speaker 1>think the you know, obviously this Russia Ukraine conflict is

0:30:02.080 --> 0:30:04.520
<v Speaker 1>a is a prime example of that. But historically, you know,

0:30:04.600 --> 0:30:07.920
<v Speaker 1>stuff happens, and and you have to worry about the

0:30:07.960 --> 0:30:11.680
<v Speaker 1>contagion events, you know, the market contagion that the spirals

0:30:11.680 --> 0:30:15.760
<v Speaker 1>from US. It's very difficult to pinpoint market vulnerabilities before

0:30:15.840 --> 0:30:18.280
<v Speaker 1>you have these types of events happen. So I think

0:30:18.320 --> 0:30:21.000
<v Speaker 1>what we're watching right now at least to see if

0:30:21.080 --> 0:30:22.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, the FED maybe goes a little bit slower,

0:30:23.080 --> 0:30:25.520
<v Speaker 1>is if you do get some of that market contagion happening.

0:30:25.560 --> 0:30:27.800
<v Speaker 1>So do you start to see it in credit, um,

0:30:27.840 --> 0:30:31.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, or even bank funding markets? So far we haven't,

0:30:31.120 --> 0:30:33.040
<v Speaker 1>which is great news, um, you know, but I think

0:30:33.080 --> 0:30:35.240
<v Speaker 1>it's appropriate for the market, you know, where the markets

0:30:35.240 --> 0:30:36.840
<v Speaker 1>pricing about sixth rate high because we think more or

0:30:36.920 --> 0:30:39.840
<v Speaker 1>less that's about right this year, um, given the risks

0:30:40.040 --> 0:30:42.720
<v Speaker 1>you know that are out there. Tiffany, Thank you so much, Tiffany,

0:30:42.760 --> 0:30:46.840
<v Speaker 1>Well to this storm. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

0:30:47.120 --> 0:30:50.480
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays from seven to

0:30:50.560 --> 0:30:55.280
<v Speaker 1>ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and Bloomberg Television each

0:30:55.360 --> 0:30:59.080
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0:30:59.120 --> 0:31:04.320
<v Speaker 1>best Tonikon on finance, investment, and international relations. And subscribe

0:31:04.360 --> 0:31:09.320
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0:31:09.360 --> 0:31:12.640
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0:31:12.760 --> 0:31:14.600
<v Speaker 1>this is Bloomberg